000
FXUS63 KGLD 200822
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT TODAY WAS SQUELCHED BY CLOUD COVER THAT
PREVAILED THROUGH THE DAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO REMOVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

OVERALL...ACTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PAST WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHANGING. A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST. THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A
NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER AS MOISTURE WAS
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WERE NOT WELL
FORECAST BY MORNING GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDY CONDITIONS PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A 50KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT 2-3KFT
AGL DEVELOPS. PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WERE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM
BEFORE THIS CLOUD COVER DEVELOPED...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

TOMORROW...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WE SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH NO PROBLEM. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BELIEVE DAYTIME HEATING ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OF AROUND 30KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE AT BEST. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 8-12 PERCENT IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES SO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

SOME INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN MAIN JET AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AREA...WITH SURFACE DRYLINE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. STRONGEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BE TOWARDS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND CENTRAL
KANSAS...SO THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE EASTWARD. GFS SOUNDING FOR 18Z SUNDAY HAS THE SHALLOWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKEST CAP...BUT 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES MUCH
DRIER MID LAYER AS THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN CAP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON SURFACE
FORCING AND HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH. GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE
STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THAT COULD SPARK STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH 1000 J/KG
CAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT THETA E VALUES AT THE SURFACE AND 850
MB.  RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED MORE WITH THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...SO OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE BEST IN
THAT AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT BEST...WITH THETA E
VALUES DROPPING SHARPLY BETWEEN THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS.

SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND STRONGER JET REGIONS ARE IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS.  SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RETURN TO THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING WARM AND DRY AIR.  HOT
TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB LEVEL INDICATE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 100S POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK...DRY AIR AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING TOWARDS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. DUE TO
STRONG CAP AND LOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SLIM.

GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY WILL
START THE WARM AND DRY PERIOD...WHICH WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH MCK AND GLD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING
THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND 18Z AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE EVENING
AS A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MOIST AIR WITH 60-65 DEWPOINTS
INTO THE REGION...THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AS THE AIR NEARS SATURATION. ANY LOW
CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART

000
FXUS63 KGLD 200559
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1159 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT TODAY WAS SQUELCHED BY CLOUD COVER THAT
PREVAILED THROUGH THE DAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO REMOVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

OVERALL...ACTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PAST WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHANGING. A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST. THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A
NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER AS MOISTURE WAS
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WERE NOT WELL
FORECAST BY MORNING GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDY CONDITIONS PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A 50KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT 2-3KFT
AGL DEVELOPS. PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WERE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM
BEFORE THIS CLOUD COVER DEVELOPED...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

TOMORROW...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WE SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH NO PROBLEM. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BELIEVE DAYTIME HEATING ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OF AROUND 30KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE AT BEST. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 8-12 PERCENT IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES SO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TRY TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF INHIBITION AND DRY NATURE I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
OCCURRENCE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TIED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WHEN PEAK HEATING MAY OVERCOME CAP...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY SUPPORTED AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/NEAR
100 WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FEATURE
COULD HELP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT I DECIDED AGAINST RAISING POPS PAST
SLIGHT.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SHIFTING THE MAIN
STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING 500MB
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590 AND H85 TEMPS 30C OR WARMER WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT TEMPS AROUND 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...IF NOT APPROACHING RECORD VALUES. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...STRONG CAP...AND STORM TRACK WELL OUTSIDE OF CWA I KEPT
FORECAST DRY. DEPENDING ON DAYTIME MIXING/WINDS WE COULD APPROACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH MCK AND GLD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING
THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND 18Z AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE EVENING
AS A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MOIST AIR WITH 60-65 DEWPOINTS
INTO THE REGION...THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AS THE AIR NEARS SATURATION. ANY LOW
CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART

000
FXUS63 KGLD 200110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
710 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT TODAY WAS SQUELCHED BY CLOUD COVER THAT
PREVAILED THROUGH THE DAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO REMOVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

OVERALL...ACTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PAST WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHANGING. A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST. THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A
NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER AS MOISTURE WAS
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WERE NOT WELL
FORECAST BY MORNING GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDY CONDITIONS PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A 50KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT 2-3KFT
AGL DEVELOPS. PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WERE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM
BEFORE THIS CLOUD COVER DEVELOPED...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

TOMORROW...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WE SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH NO PROBLEM. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BELIEVE DAYTIME HEATING ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OF AROUND 30KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE AT BEST. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 8-12 PERCENT IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES SO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TRY TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF INHIBITION AND DRY NATURE I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
OCCURRENCE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TIED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WHEN PEAK HEATING MAY OVERCOME CAP...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY SUPPORTED AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/NEAR
100 WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FEATURE
COULD HELP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT I DECIDED AGAINST RAISING POPS PAST
SLIGHT.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SHIFTING THE MAIN
STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING 500MB
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590 AND H85 TEMPS 30C OR WARMER WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT TEMPS AROUND 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...IF NOT APPROACHING RECORD VALUES. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...STRONG CAP...AND STORM TRACK WELL OUTSIDE OF CWA I KEPT
FORECAST DRY. DEPENDING ON DAYTIME MIXING/WINDS WE COULD APPROACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE INVERSION. IT IS A MARGINAL SETUP
BUT LIKELY STILL WORTHY OF INCLUSION AT BOTH GLD AND MCK. DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH.
TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD BE
WILL BE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF WHEN IT IS INDICATED IN THE TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BRB

000
FXUS63 KGLD 192328
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
528 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

OVERALL...ACTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PAST WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHANGING. A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST. THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A
NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER AS MOISTURE WAS
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WERE NOT WELL
FORECAST BY MORNING GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDY CONDITIONS PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A 50KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT 2-3KFT
AGL DEVELOPS. PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WERE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM
BEFORE THIS CLOUD COVER DEVELOPED...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

TOMORROW...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WE SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH NO PROBLEM. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BELIEVE DAYTIME HEATING ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OF AROUND 30KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE AT BEST. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 8-12 PERCENT IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES SO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TRY TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF INHIBITION AND DRY NATURE I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
OCCURRENCE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TIED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WHEN PEAK HEATING MAY OVERCOME CAP...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY SUPPORTED AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/NEAR
100 WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FEATURE
COULD HELP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT I DECIDED AGAINST RAISING POPS PAST
SLIGHT.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SHIFTING THE MAIN
STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING 500MB
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590 AND H85 TEMPS 30C OR WARMER WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT TEMPS AROUND 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...IF NOT APPROACHING RECORD VALUES. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...STRONG CAP...AND STORM TRACK WELL OUTSIDE OF CWA I KEPT
FORECAST DRY. DEPENDING ON DAYTIME MIXING/WINDS WE COULD APPROACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE INVERSION. IT IS A MARGINAL SETUP
BUT LIKELY STILL WORTHY OF INCLUSION AT BOTH GLD AND MCK. DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH.
TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD BE
WILL BE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF WHEN IT IS INDICATED IN THE TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BRB

000
FXUS63 KGLD 192038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

OVERALL...ACTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PAST WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHANGING. A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST. THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A
NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER AS MOISTURE WAS
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WERE NOT WELL
FORECAST BY MORNING GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDY CONDITIONS PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A 50KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT 2-3KFT
AGL DEVELOPS. PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WERE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM
BEFORE THIS CLOUD COVER DEVELOPED...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

TOMORROW...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WE SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH NO PROBLEM. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BELIEVE DAYTIME HEATING ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OF AROUND 30KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE AT BEST. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 8-12 PERCENT IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES SO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TRY TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF INHIBITION AND DRY NATURE I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
OCCURRENCE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TIED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS WHEN PEAK HEATING MAY OVERCOME CAP...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY SUPPORTED AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/NEAR
100 WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS FEATURE
COULD HELP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT I DECIDED AGAINST RAISING POPS PAST
SLIGHT.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SHIFTING THE MAIN
STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING 500MB
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590 AND H85 TEMPS 30C OR WARMER WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT TEMPS AROUND 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...IF NOT APPROACHING RECORD VALUES. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...STRONG CAP...AND STORM TRACK WELL OUTSIDE OF CWA I KEPT
FORECAST DRY. DEPENDING ON DAYTIME MIXING/WINDS WE COULD APPROACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT BOTH SITES AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH BREEZE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS...KEEPING UP THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WHICH
MAY PROMPT A LLWS GROUP TO BE ADDED TO THE TAF. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW SO DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM

000
FXUS63 KGLD 191956
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

OVERALL...ACTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PAST WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHANGING. A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST. THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A
NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER AS MOISTURE WAS
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WERE NOT WELL
FORECAST BY MORNING GUIDANCE...SO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDY CONDITIONS PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A 50KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT 2-3KFT
AGL DEVELOPS. PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WERE LOOKING FAIRLY SLIM
BEFORE THIS CLOUD COVER DEVELOPED...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

TOMORROW...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WE SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH NO PROBLEM. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BELIEVE DAYTIME HEATING ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OF AROUND 30KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE AT BEST. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 8-12 PERCENT IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES SO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2013

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AS MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FLOW AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.  STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES...HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ENTER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY.  THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...AND JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB JET
SPEEDS ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SOME UNSTABLE WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING. ONCE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THE JET SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM...WITH VALUES IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THETA E VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 850 AND AT
THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A 30 DEGREE DRY LINE
GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST.  THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
TO THE EAST TOWARDS MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARM AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT INCREASES TEMPERATURES.  MORE
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT MAY REACH
NEAR 100.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT BOTH SITES AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH BREEZE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS...KEEPING UP THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WHICH
MAY PROMPT A LLWS GROUP TO BE ADDED TO THE TAF. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW SO DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JJM

000
FXUS63 KGLD 191731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD
WITH HOW HOT DOES IT GET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/COMPLICATED UPPER FLOW FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FL0W ALOFT
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
IS DRAPED UP AGAINST THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND HAS SENT UP
MESOSCALE/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ACROSS DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. THE NAM/ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE WORST ON THE MID LEVELS WITH THE
UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS/SREF DOING ABOUT THE SAME. NAM WAS A LITTLE WARM
AT 700 MB WITH THE GFS AND UKMET BETTER. SREF AND GFS WERE DOING
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WENT
THROUGH...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE DO ABOUND. SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST
PLUS A WARMER AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS/EML MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. NEAR 12Z THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. IT STAYS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH AS SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

VERY UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES BEING A BIG INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ONE OF
THOSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION. ALL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RAP REDEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS...
MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS RIGHT NOW AND THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...
WILL RAISE POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

THAT CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO RELOAD WITH EMPHASIS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER THE FAR WEST
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER. THE FAR WESTERN MAY BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE STORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN THIRD.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE WET GROUND AND ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THIS DAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LOWEST
AND CAP BREAKABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER A WEAK COOL FRONT OR
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL
THESE FEATURES PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND WILL BE AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF EVEN WITH WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A DEEP DRY LAYER AND HIGH BASES. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH HERE TO
INCLUDE A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THINGS TOTALLY
CAPPED OR BE ABLE TO BREAK LOOSE.

ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE 90S. SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES. MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE BOUNDARY.
CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEING
FURTHER NORTH.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP A WEAK LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE DAY BEFORE
EXCEPT MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS DO LOOK CAPPED DESPITE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE NEAR THE SAME PLACE. THE EASTERN
THIRD HAS THE LOWER 700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS COMING ACROSS. LIKED WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
HAD IN THERE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AND ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
MODEL DATA SAYS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND SO
WILL THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDED THE MAXES IN THAT DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2013

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AS MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FLOW AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.  STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES...HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ENTER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY.  THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...AND JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB JET
SPEEDS ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SOME UNSTABLE WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING. ONCE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THE JET SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM...WITH VALUES IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THETA E VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 850 AND AT
THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A 30 DEGREE DRY LINE
GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST.  THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
TO THE EAST TOWARDS MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARM AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT INCREASES TEMPERATURES.  MORE
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT MAY REACH
NEAR 100.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT BOTH SITES AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH BREEZE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS...KEEPING UP THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WHICH
MAY PROMPT A LLWS GROUP TO BE ADDED TO THE TAF. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW SO DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JJM

000
FXUS63 KGLD 191131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD
WITH HOW HOT DOES IT GET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/COMPLICATED UPPER FLOW FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FL0W ALOFT
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
IS DRAPED UP AGAINST THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND HAS SENT UP
MESOSCALE/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ACROSS DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. THE NAM/ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE WORST ON THE MID LEVELS WITH THE
UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS/SREF DOING ABOUT THE SAME. NAM WAS A LITTLE WARM
AT 700 MB WITH THE GFS AND UKMET BETTER. SREF AND GFS WERE DOING
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WENT
THROUGH...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE DO ABOUND. SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST
PLUS A WARMER AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS/EML MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. NEAR 12Z THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. IT STAYS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH AS SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

VERY UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES BEING A BIG INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ONE OF
THOSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION. ALL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RAP REDEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS...
MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS RIGHT NOW AND THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...
WILL RAISE POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

THAT CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO RELOAD WITH EMPHASIS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER THE FAR WEST
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER. THE FAR WESTERN MAY BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE STORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN THIRD.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE WET GROUND AND ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THIS DAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LOWEST
AND CAP BREAKABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER A WEAK COOL FRONT OR
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL
THESE FEATURES PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND WILL BE AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF EVEN WITH WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A DEEP DRY LAYER AND HIGH BASES. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH HERE TO
INCLUDE A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THINGS TOTALLY
CAPPED OR BE ABLE TO BREAK LOOSE.

ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE 90S. SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES. MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE BOUNDARY.
CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEING
FURTHER NORTH.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP A WEAK LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE DAY BEFORE
EXCEPT MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS DO LOOK CAPPED DESPITE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE NEAR THE SAME PLACE. THE EASTERN
THIRD HAS THE LOWER 700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS COMING ACROSS. LIKED WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
HAD IN THERE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AND ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
MODEL DATA SAYS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND SO
WILL THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDED THE MAXES IN THAT DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2013

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AS MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FLOW AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.  STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES...HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ENTER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY.  THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...AND JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB JET
SPEEDS ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SOME UNSTABLE WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING. ONCE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THE JET SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM...WITH VALUES IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THETA E VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 850 AND AT
THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A 30 DEGREE DRY LINE
GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST.  THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
TO THE EAST TOWARDS MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARM AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT INCREASES TEMPERATURES.  MORE
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT MAY REACH
NEAR 100.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES WILL HELP PRODUCE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD AND KMCK. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO LOCATION OF FORMATION...AS BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE WEST OF THE TAF SITES IN THE COLORADO COUNTIES. THEREFORE...NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KMCK WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
BOTH SITES TODAY...GUSTING TO 30 KTS AT TIMES.  BOTH VISIBILITIES
AND CEILING HEIGHTS FOR THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

000
FXUS63 KGLD 191002
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD
WITH HOW HOT DOES IT GET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/COMPLICATED UPPER FLOW FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FL0W ALOFT
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
IS DRAPED UP AGAINST THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND HAS SENT UP
MESOSCALE/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ACROSS DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. THE NAM/ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE WORST ON THE MID LEVELS WITH THE
UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS/SREF DOING ABOUT THE SAME. NAM WAS A LITTLE WARM
AT 700 MB WITH THE GFS AND UKMET BETTER. SREF AND GFS WERE DOING
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WENT
THROUGH...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE DO ABOUND. SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST
PLUS A WARMER AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS/EML MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. NEAR 12Z THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. IT STAYS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH AS SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

VERY UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES BEING A BIG INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ONE OF
THOSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION. ALL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RAP REDEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS...
MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS RIGHT NOW AND THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...
WILL RAISE POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

THAT CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO RELOAD WITH EMPHASIS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER THE FAR WEST
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER. THE FAR WESTERN MAY BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE STORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN THIRD.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE WET GROUND AND ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THIS DAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LOWEST
AND CAP BREAKABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER A WEAK COOL FRONT OR
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL
THESE FEATURES PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND WILL BE AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF EVEN WITH WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A DEEP DRY LAYER AND HIGH BASES. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH HERE TO
INCLUDE A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THINGS TOTALLY
CAPPED OR BE ABLE TO BREAK LOOSE.

ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE 90S. SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES. MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE BOUNDARY.
CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEING
FURTHER NORTH.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP A WEAK LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE DAY BEFORE
EXCEPT MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS DO LOOK CAPPED DESPITE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE NEAR THE SAME PLACE. THE EASTERN
THIRD HAS THE LOWER 700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS COMING ACROSS. LIKED WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
HAD IN THERE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AND ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
MODEL DATA SAYS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND SO
WILL THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDED THE MAXES IN THAT DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2013

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AS MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FLOW AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.  STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES...HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ENTER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY.  THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...AND JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB JET
SPEEDS ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SOME UNSTABLE WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING. ONCE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THE JET SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM...WITH VALUES IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THETA E VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 850 AND AT
THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A 30 DEGREE DRY LINE
GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST.  THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
TO THE EAST TOWARDS MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARM AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT INCREASES TEMPERATURES.  MORE
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT MAY REACH
NEAR 100.

&&

.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RATHER
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT DUE TO VARIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MESOSCALE
STORM COMPLEX SHOULD BE EAST OF KGLD BY THE START OF THE TAFS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE BEHIND THE COMPLEX INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY NEAR THE SITE. DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AND THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS
AROUND KGLD TONIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP. MOST MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING FOG FORMING ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS INDICATING
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH WILL INCLUDE A MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTION FOR KGLD OVERNIGHT.

MODELS ARE PLACING LIFT OVER KMCK DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE
LIFT MOVING EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INCLUDE A
VICINITY TS IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 190830
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. LINE OF STORMS
HAS STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THE LIFT DECLINING
FURTHER EAST OF THE STORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SO WILL
HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
STILL HINTING AT SOME STORMS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOOKING WEST THERE ARE STILL SOME RADAR
RETURNS FROM SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL COLORADO SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
BEST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2013

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AS MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FLOW AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.  STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES...HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ENTER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY.  THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...AND JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB JET
SPEEDS ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
UNSTABLE WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING. ONCE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THE JET SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM...WITH VALUES IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THETA E VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 850 AND AT THE
SURFACE...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A 30 DEGREE DRY LINE
GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST.  THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
TO THE EAST TOWARDS MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARM AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT INCREASES TEMPERATURES.  MORE
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT MAY REACH
NEAR 100.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RATHER
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT DUE TO VARIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MESOSCALE STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BE EAST OF KGLD BY THE START OF THE TAFS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE BEHIND THE COMPLEX INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY NEAR THE SITE. DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AND THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS
AROUND KGLD TONIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP. MOST MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING FOG FORMING ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS INDICATING
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH WILL INCLUDE A MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTION FOR KGLD OVERNIGHT.

MODELS ARE PLACING LIFT OVER KMCK DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE
LIFT MOVING EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INCLUDE A
VICINITY TS IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 190539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. LINE OF STORMS
HAS STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THE LIFT DECLINING
FURTHER EAST OF THE STORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SO WILL
HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
STILL HINTING AT SOME STORMS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOOKING WEST THERE ARE STILL SOME RADAR
RETURNS FROM SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL COLORADO SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
BEST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RATHER
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT DUE TO VARIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MESOSCALE STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BE EAST OF KGLD BY THE START OF THE TAFS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE BEHIND THE COMPLEX INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY NEAR THE SITE. DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AND THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS
AROUND KGLD TONIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP. MOST MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING FOG FORMING ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS INDICATING
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH WILL INCLUDE A MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTION FOR KGLD OVERNIGHT.

MODELS ARE PLACING LIFT OVER KMCK DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE
LIFT MOVING EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INCLUDE A
VICINITY TS IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 190308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
908 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. LINE OF STORMS
HAS STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THE LIFT DECLINING
FURTHER EAST OF THE STORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SO WILL
HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
STILL HINTING AT SOME STORMS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOOKING WEST THERE ARE STILL SOME RADAR
RETURNS FROM SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL COLORADO SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
BEST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST FOR KGLD FOR THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL LAST. AM
ANTICIPATING THEM TO BE THROUGH KGLD BY THE END OF THE EVENING.
WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY WHEN THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. FOR KMCK
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE CAUSED THE
WINDS TO BE MORE EASTERLY. AM ANTICIPATING THE WINDS TO TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KMCK TONIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 182353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NEW
DATA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL LAST...AND WHAT INTERACTION WITH THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE LINE OF STORMS.
AT THIS TIME AM ANTICIPATING THE STORMS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO SUBSIDENCE.
MODELS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN FIRING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
COLORADO. THE OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP. CHANCES GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST FOR KGLD FOR THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL LAST. AM
ANTICIPATING THEM TO BE THROUGH KGLD BY THE END OF THE EVENING.
WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY WHEN THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. FOR KMCK
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE CAUSED THE
WINDS TO BE MORE EASTERLY. AM ANTICIPATING THE WINDS TO TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KMCK TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 182033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES
AROUND FL060. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SSE AT 10-15 WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AT KGLD THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BETTER
POTENTIAL AT KGLD THAN KMCK BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS ROUGHLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS EVEN WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS BUT ESPECIALLY KGLD WHERE GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DLF

000
FXUS63 KGLD 181800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.

MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.

QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.

THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.

MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES
AROUND FL060. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SSE AT 10-15 WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AT KGLD THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BETTER
POTENTIAL AT KGLD THAN KMCK BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS ROUGHLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS EVEN WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS BUT ESPECIALLY KGLD WHERE GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF

000
FXUS63 KGLD 181131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.

MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.

QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.

THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.

MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES WILL HELP PRODUCE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PAST KMCK AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWERS
WILL LINGER NEAR THE TERMINAL.  WINDS FOR BOTH SITES WILL BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FOR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN CHANGING
TO SOUTH.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT BOTH
SITES LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
AS TO EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL PASS.  THEREFORE...ONLY VICINITY
MENTIONS ARE IN TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180958
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.

MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.

QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.

THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.

MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180815
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTER OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION.  CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.  DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.  STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180814
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTER OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION.  CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.  DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.  STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180503
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1103 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180413
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1013 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
919 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180217
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
817 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONG
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH FOR STORM
COVERAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180054
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
654 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...STORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN DISSIPATED
QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPED OVER FAR EASTER COLORADO. AM ANTICIPATING
STORMS TO REDEVELOP EAST OF THE CO BORDER AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE.

OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. AM STILL
HESITANT GIVEN THE OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. WILL RE-EVALUATE ONCE THE NEW MODEL DATA BEGINS TO COME IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 172353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 172045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLIER. BETTER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 20Z WHEN I HAVE VCTS
GROUP. I AM NOT SURE IF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY IF A LARGE SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
OVER EITHER TERMINAL. I KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW...AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR/AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WHILE I COULDNT
RULE THIS OUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY MENTION PAST 08Z
(ESPECIALLY AT KMCK).

WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. IF THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THIS LIKELY WONT BE THE CASE...SO I KEPT MVFR MENTION AT BOTH
TERMINALS IMPROVING AFTER DAYBREAK. A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THIS
PATTERN DUE TO TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR

000
FXUS63 KGLD 172011
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG TO AREAS AND
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA. PLAN TO GO
WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE STEERING WINDS
WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE USED IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY SO PLAN TO
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLIER. BETTER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 20Z WHEN I HAVE VCTS
GROUP. I AM NOT SURE IF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY IF A LARGE SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
OVER EITHER TERMINAL. I KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW...AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR/AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WHILE I COULDNT
RULE THIS OUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY MENTION PAST 08Z
(ESPECIALLY AT KMCK).

WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. IF THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THIS LIKELY WONT BE THE CASE...SO I KEPT MVFR MENTION AT BOTH
TERMINALS IMPROVING AFTER DAYBREAK. A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THIS
PATTERN DUE TO TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171744
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG TO AREAS AND
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLIER. BETTER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 20Z WHEN I HAVE VCTS
GROUP. I AM NOT SURE IF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY IF A LARGE SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
OVER EITHER TERMINAL. I KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW...AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR/AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WHILE I COULDNT
RULE THIS OUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY MENTION PAST 08Z
(ESPECIALLY AT KMCK).

WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. IF THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THIS LIKELY WONT BE THE CASE...SO I KEPT MVFR MENTION AT BOTH
TERMINALS IMPROVING AFTER DAYBREAK. A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THIS
PATTERN DUE TO TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171157
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG TO AREAS AND
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SOME AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IFR IN THE
MORNING HOURS AT KGLD...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER A FEW HOURS. LOW
CEILINGS AT KGLD WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO VFR CONDITIONS. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND PASS OVER THE TAF SITES. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TUESDAY. FOG COULD
BE AN ISSUE LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER 14Z MONDAY...ALL CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171144
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
544 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SOME AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IFR IN THE
MORNING HOURS AT KGLD...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER A FEW HOURS. LOW
CEILINGS AT KGLD WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO VFR CONDITIONS. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND PASS OVER THE TAF SITES. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TUESDAY. FOG COULD
BE AN ISSUE LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER 14Z MONDAY...ALL CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171138
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SOME AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR IN THE
MORNING HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. LOW CEILINGS AT KGLD
WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND TO VFR CONDITIONS. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PASS OVER THE TAF
SITES.  THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TUESDAY. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. ALL CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BEYOND 14Z MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171051
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COUPLE
EXCEPTIONS POSSIBLE. FIRST...ANVIL REMAINS OF CONVECTION ARE
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALREADY OVER KGLD. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AT KMCK SOON AS WELL. THINKING A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG AS A RESULT OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. SECOND...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT KGLD AND EAST
AT KMCK LATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH