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000
FXUS63 KGLD 161732
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THIS MORNING AS STRATUS ERODES FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR KMCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOUTH
WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG SHOULD
BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE MOISTURE POOLS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.
THIS CONFINES FOG THREAT TO KMCK TONIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWERED VIS AT KMCK TO IFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING AS FOG/STRATUS ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 161732
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THIS MORNING AS STRATUS ERODES FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR KMCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOUTH
WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG SHOULD
BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE MOISTURE POOLS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.
THIS CONFINES FOG THREAT TO KMCK TONIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWERED VIS AT KMCK TO IFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING AS FOG/STRATUS ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 161143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR SKIES BKN020-030 THRU MIDDAY THEN VFR FOR REST OF FORECAST
WITH SCT030 BECM SKC BY 00Z WED. SSW WINDS 10-20KTS...BECM WSW
5KTS FOR GLD BY 07Z WED...VRB05KT FOR MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 161143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR SKIES BKN020-030 THRU MIDDAY THEN VFR FOR REST OF FORECAST
WITH SCT030 BECM SKC BY 00Z WED. SSW WINDS 10-20KTS...BECM WSW
5KTS FOR GLD BY 07Z WED...VRB05KT FOR MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 160843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS HAS SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE...AND THERE
HAVE BEEN ONLY A FEW UPSTREAM REPORTS OF VIS IN THE 4-6SM SO FAR.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALL HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. IF THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL MIXED DUE TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KT AND BL WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT THEN VIS BELOW
3SM WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY. IF WINDS WERE TO SOMEHOW BECOME CALM THEN
VIS COULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING
THIS ALONG BETTER MOISTURE AXIS IN THE WEST.

I DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF IFR/LIFR VIS AT KGLD AND KEPT
MENTION OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS. I HAVE EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE AT
KMCK WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHTER WINDS STILL CONCERNS ME...SO FOR NOW I KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
PLACE AFTER 10Z. LOOKS LIKE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD STILL OCCUR AT
BOTH TAF SITES BY MIDDAY...WITH VFR THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 160533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH OUR PART OF THE WORLD UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. LOWS IN
THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FURTHER WEST NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM SHOWING SOME HEALTHY AND
WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT IS A LOW LEVEL JET. IF MOISTURE
WHERE A BIT BETTER AND FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD JUSTIFY
ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM SILENT. FOR
WEDNESDAY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO NOTED. WILL BE INSERTING DRY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA AND ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST ISSUES ARISE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS NAM PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
WEST TO A YUMA TO GOODLAND AND GOVE LINE PER BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT IN THE MCCOOK TO NORTON AREA. ECMWF TENDS
TO FAVOR THE NAM/SREF WIND PATTERN SUGGESTING A FURTHER WEST
POSITION. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY
AND POINTS EAST BEFORE WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND LIFT EXIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS
WRITING) HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DIVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY...MAY SEE A SECONDARY WEAK PIECE OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH
THE AREAS FROM NORTON TO LEOTI DURING THE DAY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IS LOW. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY...MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS HAS SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE...AND THERE
HAVE BEEN ONLY A FEW UPSTREAM REPORTS OF VIS IN THE 4-6SM SO FAR.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALL HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. IF THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL MIXED DUE TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KT AND BL WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT THEN VIS BELOW
3SM WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY. IF WINDS WERE TO SOMEHOW BECOME CALM THEN
VIS COULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING
THIS ALONG BETTER MOISTURE AXIS IN THE WEST.

I DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF IFR/LIFR VIS AT KGLD AND KEPT
MENTION OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS. I HAVE EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE AT
KMCK WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHTER WINDS STILL CONCERNS ME...SO FOR NOW I KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
PLACE AFTER 10Z. LOOKS LIKE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD STILL OCCUR AT
BOTH TAF SITES BY MIDDAY...WITH VFR THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 160533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH OUR PART OF THE WORLD UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. LOWS IN
THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FURTHER WEST NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM SHOWING SOME HEALTHY AND
WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT IS A LOW LEVEL JET. IF MOISTURE
WHERE A BIT BETTER AND FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD JUSTIFY
ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM SILENT. FOR
WEDNESDAY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO NOTED. WILL BE INSERTING DRY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA AND ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST ISSUES ARISE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS NAM PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
WEST TO A YUMA TO GOODLAND AND GOVE LINE PER BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT IN THE MCCOOK TO NORTON AREA. ECMWF TENDS
TO FAVOR THE NAM/SREF WIND PATTERN SUGGESTING A FURTHER WEST
POSITION. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY
AND POINTS EAST BEFORE WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND LIFT EXIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS
WRITING) HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DIVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY...MAY SEE A SECONDARY WEAK PIECE OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH
THE AREAS FROM NORTON TO LEOTI DURING THE DAY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IS LOW. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY...MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS HAS SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE...AND THERE
HAVE BEEN ONLY A FEW UPSTREAM REPORTS OF VIS IN THE 4-6SM SO FAR.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALL HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. IF THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL MIXED DUE TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KT AND BL WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT THEN VIS BELOW
3SM WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY. IF WINDS WERE TO SOMEHOW BECOME CALM THEN
VIS COULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING
THIS ALONG BETTER MOISTURE AXIS IN THE WEST.

I DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF IFR/LIFR VIS AT KGLD AND KEPT
MENTION OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS. I HAVE EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE AT
KMCK WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHTER WINDS STILL CONCERNS ME...SO FOR NOW I KEPT MVFR CIGS IN
PLACE AFTER 10Z. LOOKS LIKE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD STILL OCCUR AT
BOTH TAF SITES BY MIDDAY...WITH VFR THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 152329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH OUR PART OF THE WORLD UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. LOWS IN
THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FURTHER WEST NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM SHOWING SOME HEALTHY AND
WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT IS A LOW LEVEL JET. IF MOISTURE
WHERE A BIT BETTER AND FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD JUSTIFY
ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM SILENT. FOR
WEDNESDAY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO NOTED. WILL BE INSERTING DRY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA AND ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST ISSUES ARISE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS NAM PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
WEST TO A YUMA TO GOODLAND AND GOVE LINE PER BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT IN THE MCCOOK TO NORTON AREA. ECMWF TENDS
TO FAVOR THE NAM/SREF WIND PATTERN SUGGESTING A FURTHER WEST
POSITION. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY
AND POINTS EAST BEFORE WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND LIFT EXIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS
WRITING) HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DIVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY...MAY SEE A SECONDARY WEAK PIECE OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH
THE AREAS FROM NORTON TO LEOTI DURING THE DAY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IS LOW. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY...MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING IN THE
EAST. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND 18Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT EARLIER FORECAST WITH LOWEST VIS (LIFR) CONFINED TO CO/KS
STATE LINE. MVFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER
WITH DENSE FOG MAINLY IN THE WEST IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE TO
KEEP VARIABLE 1/2SM CONDITIONS AT KGLD DURING THE 10-14Z PERIOD
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS JUST TO LOW TO PREVAIL THESE
CONDITIONS..THOUGH KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS COULD BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...THOUGH BY 16-18Z BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BE AT LEAST MVFR
AND THEN VFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 152329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH OUR PART OF THE WORLD UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. LOWS IN
THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FURTHER WEST NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM SHOWING SOME HEALTHY AND
WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT IS A LOW LEVEL JET. IF MOISTURE
WHERE A BIT BETTER AND FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD JUSTIFY
ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM SILENT. FOR
WEDNESDAY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO NOTED. WILL BE INSERTING DRY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA AND ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST ISSUES ARISE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS NAM PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
WEST TO A YUMA TO GOODLAND AND GOVE LINE PER BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT IN THE MCCOOK TO NORTON AREA. ECMWF TENDS
TO FAVOR THE NAM/SREF WIND PATTERN SUGGESTING A FURTHER WEST
POSITION. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY
AND POINTS EAST BEFORE WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND LIFT EXIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS
WRITING) HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DIVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY...MAY SEE A SECONDARY WEAK PIECE OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH
THE AREAS FROM NORTON TO LEOTI DURING THE DAY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IS LOW. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY...MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING IN THE
EAST. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND 18Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT EARLIER FORECAST WITH LOWEST VIS (LIFR) CONFINED TO CO/KS
STATE LINE. MVFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER
WITH DENSE FOG MAINLY IN THE WEST IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE TO
KEEP VARIABLE 1/2SM CONDITIONS AT KGLD DURING THE 10-14Z PERIOD
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS JUST TO LOW TO PREVAIL THESE
CONDITIONS..THOUGH KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS COULD BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...THOUGH BY 16-18Z BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BE AT LEAST MVFR
AND THEN VFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 152035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH OUR PART OF THE WORLD UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. LOWS IN
THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FURTHER WEST NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM SHOWING SOME HEALTHY AND
WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT IS A LOW LEVEL JET. IF MOISTURE
WHERE A BIT BETTER AND FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD JUSTIFY
ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM SILENT. FOR
WEDNESDAY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO NOTED. WILL BE INSERTING DRY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA AND ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST ISSUES ARISE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS NAM PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
WEST TO A YUMA TO GOODLAND AND GOVE LINE PER BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT IN THE MCCOOK TO NORTON AREA. ECWMF TENDS
TO FAVOR THE NAM/SREF WIND PATTERN SUGGESTING A FURTHER WEST
POSITION. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY
AND POINTS EAST BEFORE WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND LIFT EXIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS
WRITING) HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DIVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY...MAY SEE A SECONDARY WEAK PIECE OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH
THE AREAS FROM NORTON TO LEOTI DURING THE DAY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IS LOW. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY...MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. KMCK HAS ALREADY
BECOME VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL NEAR 12Z MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. KGLD IS CURRENTLY MVFR AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 21Z.
MODELS ARE SAYING THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR
AWAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS BACK IN THE 04Z TO
07Z TIME FRAME. BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR
AND LAST UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 152035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH OUR PART OF THE WORLD UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. LOWS IN
THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FURTHER WEST NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM SHOWING SOME HEALTHY AND
WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT IS A LOW LEVEL JET. IF MOISTURE
WHERE A BIT BETTER AND FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD JUSTIFY
ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM SILENT. FOR
WEDNESDAY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO NOTED. WILL BE INSERTING DRY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA AND ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST ISSUES ARISE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS NAM PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
WEST TO A YUMA TO GOODLAND AND GOVE LINE PER BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT IN THE MCCOOK TO NORTON AREA. ECWMF TENDS
TO FAVOR THE NAM/SREF WIND PATTERN SUGGESTING A FURTHER WEST
POSITION. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY
AND POINTS EAST BEFORE WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND LIFT EXIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS
WRITING) HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DIVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY...MAY SEE A SECONDARY WEAK PIECE OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH
THE AREAS FROM NORTON TO LEOTI DURING THE DAY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IS LOW. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY...MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. KMCK HAS ALREADY
BECOME VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL NEAR 12Z MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. KGLD IS CURRENTLY MVFR AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 21Z.
MODELS ARE SAYING THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR
AWAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS BACK IN THE 04Z TO
07Z TIME FRAME. BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR
AND LAST UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 151957
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
157 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. KMCK HAS ALREADY
BECOME VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL NEAR 12Z MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. KGLD IS CURRENTLY MVFR AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 21Z.
MODELS ARE SAYING THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR
AWAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS BACK IN THE 04Z TO
07Z TIME FRAME. BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR
AND LAST UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 151957
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
157 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. KMCK HAS ALREADY
BECOME VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL NEAR 12Z MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. KGLD IS CURRENTLY MVFR AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 21Z.
MODELS ARE SAYING THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR
AWAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS BACK IN THE 04Z TO
07Z TIME FRAME. BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR
AND LAST UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 151740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATUS DECREASING
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT
FORECAST HAD. ALSO LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM WERE ALSO SLOWER DECREASING
THE CLOUD COVER AND LOOK TO HOLD ONTO CLOUD OVER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. FOG LOOKS
TO ALSO BE HANGING ON LONGER IN EASTERN COLORADO SO KEPT THE FOG
GOING THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUN HERE SOON. SO THOSE LOCATIONS LOOK TO WARM UP MORE THAN
EXPECTED. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER BUT
HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS AREA OF FOG FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH THRU NORTHERN
ZONES ATTM WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN MANY LOCALES. WITH LOW
CEILINGS REMAINING...CHANCE FOR AT LEAS TA BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. BACK EDGE OF CLDS IS UP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHOULD
PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. CWA DOES AWAIT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PUSH WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO PLAN ON IT SCRAPING CWA GIVING AREA ONLY A SL CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY ARRIVAL. SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW CLRING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLDS BEHIND FRONT. LINGERING CLDS
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLRING
SKIES AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP TRAPPING MOISTURE....BUT FOG AREA COULD BE LIMITED WITH
EXPECTED WIND FLOW. INITIALLY...SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
SWING AROUND TO THE SSE 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. KMCK HAS ALREADY
BECOME VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL NEAR 12Z MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. KGLD IS CURRENTLY MVFR AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 21Z.
MODELS ARE SAYING THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR
AWAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS BACK IN THE 04Z TO
07Z TIME FRAME. BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR
AND LAST UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 151740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATUS DECREASING
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT
FORECAST HAD. ALSO LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM WERE ALSO SLOWER DECREASING
THE CLOUD COVER AND LOOK TO HOLD ONTO CLOUD OVER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. FOG LOOKS
TO ALSO BE HANGING ON LONGER IN EASTERN COLORADO SO KEPT THE FOG
GOING THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUN HERE SOON. SO THOSE LOCATIONS LOOK TO WARM UP MORE THAN
EXPECTED. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER BUT
HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS AREA OF FOG FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH THRU NORTHERN
ZONES ATTM WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN MANY LOCALES. WITH LOW
CEILINGS REMAINING...CHANCE FOR AT LEAS TA BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. BACK EDGE OF CLDS IS UP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHOULD
PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. CWA DOES AWAIT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PUSH WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO PLAN ON IT SCRAPING CWA GIVING AREA ONLY A SL CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY ARRIVAL. SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW CLRING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLDS BEHIND FRONT. LINGERING CLDS
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLRING
SKIES AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP TRAPPING MOISTURE....BUT FOG AREA COULD BE LIMITED WITH
EXPECTED WIND FLOW. INITIALLY...SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
SWING AROUND TO THE SSE 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. KMCK HAS ALREADY
BECOME VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL NEAR 12Z MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. KGLD IS CURRENTLY MVFR AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 21Z.
MODELS ARE SAYING THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR
AWAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS BACK IN THE 04Z TO
07Z TIME FRAME. BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR
AND LAST UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 151627
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATUS DECREASING
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT
FORECAST HAD. ALSO LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM WERE ALSO SLOWER DECREASING
THE CLOUD COVER AND LOOK TO HOLD ONTO CLOUD OVER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. FOG LOOKS
TO ALSO BE HANGING ON LONGER IN EASTERN COLORADO SO KEPT THE FOG
GOING THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUN HERE SOON. SO THOSE LOCATIONS LOOK TO WARM UP MORE THAN
EXPECTED. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER BUT
HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS AREA OF FOG FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH THRU NORTHERN
ZONES ATTM WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN MANY LOCALES. WITH LOW
CEILINGS REMAINING...CHANCE FOR AT LEAS TA BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. BACK EDGE OF CLDS IS UP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHOULD
PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. CWA DOES AWAIT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PUSH WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO PLAN ON IT SCRAPING CWA GIVING AREA ONLY A SL CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY ARRIVAL. SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW CLRING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLDS BEHIND FRONT. LINGERING CLDS
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLRING
SKIES AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP TRAPPING MOISTURE....BUT FOG AREA COULD BE LIMITED WITH
EXPECTED WIND FLOW. INITIALLY...SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
SWING AROUND TO THE SSE 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR BY 21Z. LOOKING FOR BKN005-015 TRANSITIONING
TO SCT015 SCT200. VCSH AND 3-6SM FG THRU MIDDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY
10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO ENE BY MIDDAY THEN TO THE SOUTH AFT 00Z
TUESDAY AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 151627
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATUS DECREASING
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THAT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT
FORECAST HAD. ALSO LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM WERE ALSO SLOWER DECREASING
THE CLOUD COVER AND LOOK TO HOLD ONTO CLOUD OVER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. FOG LOOKS
TO ALSO BE HANGING ON LONGER IN EASTERN COLORADO SO KEPT THE FOG
GOING THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUN HERE SOON. SO THOSE LOCATIONS LOOK TO WARM UP MORE THAN
EXPECTED. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER BUT
HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS AREA OF FOG FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH THRU NORTHERN
ZONES ATTM WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN MANY LOCALES. WITH LOW
CEILINGS REMAINING...CHANCE FOR AT LEAS TA BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. BACK EDGE OF CLDS IS UP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHOULD
PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. CWA DOES AWAIT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PUSH WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO PLAN ON IT SCRAPING CWA GIVING AREA ONLY A SL CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY ARRIVAL. SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW CLRING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLDS BEHIND FRONT. LINGERING CLDS
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLRING
SKIES AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP TRAPPING MOISTURE....BUT FOG AREA COULD BE LIMITED WITH
EXPECTED WIND FLOW. INITIALLY...SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
SWING AROUND TO THE SSE 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR BY 21Z. LOOKING FOR BKN005-015 TRANSITIONING
TO SCT015 SCT200. VCSH AND 3-6SM FG THRU MIDDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY
10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO ENE BY MIDDAY THEN TO THE SOUTH AFT 00Z
TUESDAY AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 151155
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER BUT
HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS AREA OF FOG FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH THRU NORTHERN
ZONES ATTM WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN MANY LOCALES. WITH LOW
CEILINGS REMAINING...CHANCE FOR AT LEAS TA BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. BACK EDGE OF CLDS IS UP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHOULD
PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. CWA DOES AWAIT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PUSH WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO PLAN ON IT SCRAPING CWA GIVING AREA ONLY A SL CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY ARRIVAL. SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW CLRING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLDS BEHIND FRONT. LINGERING CLDS
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLRING
SKIES AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP TRAPPING MOISTURE....BUT FOG AREA COULD BE LIMITED WITH
EXPECTED WIND FLOW. INITIALLY...SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
SWING AROUND TO THE SSE 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR BY 21Z. LOOKING FOR BKN005-015 TRANSITIONING
TO SCT015 SCT200. VCSH AND 3-6SM FG THRU MIDDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY
10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO ENE BY MIDDAY THEN TO THE SOUTH AFT 00Z
TUESDAY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 151155
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER BUT
HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS AREA OF FOG FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSH THRU NORTHERN
ZONES ATTM WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN MANY LOCALES. WITH LOW
CEILINGS REMAINING...CHANCE FOR AT LEAS TA BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. BACK EDGE OF CLDS IS UP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHOULD
PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. CWA DOES AWAIT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PUSH WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO PLAN ON IT SCRAPING CWA GIVING AREA ONLY A SL CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY ARRIVAL. SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW CLRING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLDS BEHIND FRONT. LINGERING CLDS
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLRING
SKIES AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP TRAPPING MOISTURE....BUT FOG AREA COULD BE LIMITED WITH
EXPECTED WIND FLOW. INITIALLY...SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
SWING AROUND TO THE SSE 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR BY 21Z. LOOKING FOR BKN005-015 TRANSITIONING
TO SCT015 SCT200. VCSH AND 3-6SM FG THRU MIDDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY
10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO ENE BY MIDDAY THEN TO THE SOUTH AFT 00Z
TUESDAY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 150847
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. CWA DOES AWAIT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PUSH WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO PLAN ON IT SCRAPING CWA GIVING AREA ONLY A SL CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY ARRIVAL. SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW CLRING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLDS BEHIND FRONT. LINGERING CLDS
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLRING
SKIES AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP TRAPPING MOISTURE....BUT FOG AREA COULD BE LIMITED WITH
EXPECTED WIND FLOW. INITIALLY...SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
SWING AROUND TO THE SSE 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AND BECOMING BREEZY TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 150847
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. CWA DOES AWAIT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME EASTWARD PUSH WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO PLAN ON IT SCRAPING CWA GIVING AREA ONLY A SL CHANCE FOR
RW/TRW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY ARRIVAL. SYSTEM WILL
SINK SOUTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW CLRING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL CLDS BEHIND FRONT. LINGERING CLDS
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLRING
SKIES AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETS UP TRAPPING MOISTURE....BUT FOG AREA COULD BE LIMITED WITH
EXPECTED WIND FLOW. INITIALLY...SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
SWING AROUND TO THE SSE 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AND BECOMING BREEZY TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 150615
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING WORDING
AND TO ADJUST CLD COVER. AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT EXPECTED THRU THE CWA THRU 12Z.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES SLOW TREK SOUTHWARD.
CURRENTLY LOW CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ARE POSITIONED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD COME CLOSE TO CWA BY
MORNING...SO WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. RECENT PATTERN HAS
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR REGULAR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. SO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE WEST.
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. SO PUT THE LOWER MINS THERE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
AND HOW FAST THAT BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL STAY THE
COOLEST AS IT STILL STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH. WINDS COULD GET BREEZY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. AIR MASS STAYS
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK JET LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVES THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS SAME TIME. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG. ELEVATED INHIBITION STAYS VERY HIGH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN
BOUNDARY RH BECOMES SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO FOG WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE MORNING. STRATUS/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IF CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND LONGER OR IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE BACK NORTH AS
FAR AS IT IS INDICATED. COULD DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP IT DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS IN GENERAL IS CAPTURING THE GENERAL
SCENARIO THE BEST. THE GEFS DOES SUPPORT IT BETTER THAN OTHER
INPUT. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS RIGHT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE COULD POSSIBLY MAKE THIS A WET SETUP.

PER THE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...PULLED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
POINT TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE INIT POPS IN THERE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...PER
REASONING ABOUT...COULD SEE THESE NEEDING TO BE HIGHER.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AM CONTENT TO
LEAVE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WHICH IS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COULD BE EAST OF US WITH RIDGING
SETTING IN. THIS COULD MAKE IT DRIER. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO SEE A
WETTER SCENARIO PER THE GEFS OUTPUT OF AREA STAYING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

SO WILL WAIT ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY POPS MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AND BECOMING BREEZY TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 150615
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING WORDING
AND TO ADJUST CLD COVER. AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT EXPECTED THRU THE CWA THRU 12Z.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES SLOW TREK SOUTHWARD.
CURRENTLY LOW CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ARE POSITIONED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD COME CLOSE TO CWA BY
MORNING...SO WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. RECENT PATTERN HAS
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR REGULAR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. SO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE WEST.
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. SO PUT THE LOWER MINS THERE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
AND HOW FAST THAT BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL STAY THE
COOLEST AS IT STILL STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH. WINDS COULD GET BREEZY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. AIR MASS STAYS
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK JET LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVES THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS SAME TIME. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG. ELEVATED INHIBITION STAYS VERY HIGH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN
BOUNDARY RH BECOMES SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO FOG WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE MORNING. STRATUS/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IF CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND LONGER OR IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE BACK NORTH AS
FAR AS IT IS INDICATED. COULD DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP IT DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS IN GENERAL IS CAPTURING THE GENERAL
SCENARIO THE BEST. THE GEFS DOES SUPPORT IT BETTER THAN OTHER
INPUT. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS RIGHT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE COULD POSSIBLY MAKE THIS A WET SETUP.

PER THE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...PULLED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
POINT TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE INIT POPS IN THERE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...PER
REASONING ABOUT...COULD SEE THESE NEEDING TO BE HIGHER.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AM CONTENT TO
LEAVE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WHICH IS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COULD BE EAST OF US WITH RIDGING
SETTING IN. THIS COULD MAKE IT DRIER. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO SEE A
WETTER SCENARIO PER THE GEFS OUTPUT OF AREA STAYING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

SO WILL WAIT ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY POPS MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AND BECOMING BREEZY TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 150519
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. RECENT PATTERN HAS
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR REGULAR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. SO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE WEST.
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. SO PUT THE LOWER MINS THERE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
AND HOW FAST THAT BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL STAY THE
COOLEST AS IT STILL STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH. WINDS COULD GET BREEZY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. AIR MASS STAYS
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK JET LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVES THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS SAME TIME. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG. ELEVATED INHIBITION STAYS VERY HIGH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN
BOUNDARY RH BECOMES SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO FOG WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE MORNING. STRATUS/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IF CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND LONGER OR IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE BACK NORTH AS
FAR AS IT IS INDICATED. COULD DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP IT DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS IN GENERAL IS CAPTURING THE GENERAL
SCENARIO THE BEST. THE GEFS DOES SUPPORT IT BETTER THAN OTHER
INPUT. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS RIGHT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE COULD POSSIBLY MAKE THIS A WET SETUP.

PER THE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...PULLED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
POINT TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE INIT POPS IN THERE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...PER
REASONING ABOUT...COULD SEE THESE NEEDING TO BE HIGHER.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AM CONTENT TO
LEAVE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WHICH IS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COULD BE EAST OF US WITH RIDGING
SETTING IN. THIS COULD MAKE IT DRIER. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO SEE A
WETTER SCENARIO PER THE GEFS OUTPUT OF AREA STAYING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

SO WILL WAIT ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY POPS MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AND BECOMING BREEZY TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 150519
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. RECENT PATTERN HAS
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR REGULAR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. SO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE WEST.
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. SO PUT THE LOWER MINS THERE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
AND HOW FAST THAT BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL STAY THE
COOLEST AS IT STILL STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH. WINDS COULD GET BREEZY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. AIR MASS STAYS
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK JET LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVES THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS SAME TIME. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG. ELEVATED INHIBITION STAYS VERY HIGH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN
BOUNDARY RH BECOMES SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO FOG WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE MORNING. STRATUS/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IF CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND LONGER OR IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE BACK NORTH AS
FAR AS IT IS INDICATED. COULD DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP IT DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS IN GENERAL IS CAPTURING THE GENERAL
SCENARIO THE BEST. THE GEFS DOES SUPPORT IT BETTER THAN OTHER
INPUT. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS RIGHT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE COULD POSSIBLY MAKE THIS A WET SETUP.

PER THE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...PULLED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
POINT TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE INIT POPS IN THERE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...PER
REASONING ABOUT...COULD SEE THESE NEEDING TO BE HIGHER.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AM CONTENT TO
LEAVE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WHICH IS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COULD BE EAST OF US WITH RIDGING
SETTING IN. THIS COULD MAKE IT DRIER. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO SEE A
WETTER SCENARIO PER THE GEFS OUTPUT OF AREA STAYING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

SO WILL WAIT ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY POPS MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AND BECOMING BREEZY TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 142320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. RECENT PATTERN HAS
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR REGULAR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. SO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE WEST.
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. SO PUT THE LOWER MINS THERE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
AND HOW FAST THAT BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL STAY THE
COOLEST AS IT STILL STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH. WINDS COULD GET BREEZY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. AIR MASS STAYS
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK JET LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVES THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS SAME TIME. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG. ELEVATED INHIBITION STAYS VERY HIGH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN
BOUNDARY RH BECOMES SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO FOG WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE MORNING. STRATUS/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IF CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND LONGER OR IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE BACK NORTH AS
FAR AS IT IS INDICATED. COULD DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP IT DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS IN GENERAL IS CAPTURING THE GENERAL
SCENARIO THE BEST. THE GEFS DOES SUPPORT IT BETTER THAN OTHER
INPUT. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS RIGHT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE COULD POSSIBLY MAKE THIS A WET SETUP.

PER THE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...PULLED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
POINT TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE INIT POPS IN THERE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...PER
REASONING ABOUT...COULD SEE THESE NEEDING TO BE HIGHER.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AM CONTENT TO
LEAVE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WHICH IS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COULD BE EAST OF US WITH RIDGING
SETTING IN. THIS COULD MAKE IT DRIER. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO SEE A
WETTER SCENARIO PER THE GEFS OUTPUT OF AREA STAYING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

SO WILL WAIT ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY POPS MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. MIGHT BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT...KMCK STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...BOTH KMCK AND KGLD WILL EXPERIENCE LOW
CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG BEHIND THE FRONT AND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 142320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. RECENT PATTERN HAS
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR REGULAR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. SO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE WEST.
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. SO PUT THE LOWER MINS THERE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
AND HOW FAST THAT BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL STAY THE
COOLEST AS IT STILL STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH. WINDS COULD GET BREEZY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. AIR MASS STAYS
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK JET LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVES THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS SAME TIME. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG. ELEVATED INHIBITION STAYS VERY HIGH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN
BOUNDARY RH BECOMES SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO FOG WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE MORNING. STRATUS/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IF CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND LONGER OR IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE BACK NORTH AS
FAR AS IT IS INDICATED. COULD DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP IT DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS IN GENERAL IS CAPTURING THE GENERAL
SCENARIO THE BEST. THE GEFS DOES SUPPORT IT BETTER THAN OTHER
INPUT. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS RIGHT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE COULD POSSIBLY MAKE THIS A WET SETUP.

PER THE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...PULLED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
POINT TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE INIT POPS IN THERE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...PER
REASONING ABOUT...COULD SEE THESE NEEDING TO BE HIGHER.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AM CONTENT TO
LEAVE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WHICH IS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COULD BE EAST OF US WITH RIDGING
SETTING IN. THIS COULD MAKE IT DRIER. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO SEE A
WETTER SCENARIO PER THE GEFS OUTPUT OF AREA STAYING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

SO WILL WAIT ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY POPS MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT. MIGHT BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT...KMCK STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...BOTH KMCK AND KGLD WILL EXPERIENCE LOW
CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG BEHIND THE FRONT AND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 142016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. RECENT PATTERN HAS
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR REGULAR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. SO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE WEST.
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. SO PUT THE LOWER MINS THERE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
AND HOW FAST THAT BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL STAY THE
COOLEST AS IT STILL STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH. WINDS COULD GET BREEZY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. AIR MASS STAYS
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK JET LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVES THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS SAME TIME. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG. ELEVATED INHIBITION STAYS VERY HIGH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN
BOUNDARY RH BECOMES SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO FOG WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE MORNING. STRATUS/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IF CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND LONGER OR IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE BACK NORTH AS
FAR AS IT IS INDICATED. COULD DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP IT DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS IN GENERAL IS CAPTURING THE GENERAL
SCENARIO THE BEST. THE GEFS DOES SUPPORT IT BETTER THAN OTHER
INPUT. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS RIGHT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE COULD POSSIBLY MAKE THIS A WET SETUP.

PER THE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...PULLED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
POINT TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE INIT POPS IN THERE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...PER
REASONING ABOUT...COULD SEE THESE NEEDING TO BE HIGHER.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AM CONTENT TO
LEAVE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WHICH IS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COULD BE EAST OF US WITH RIDGING
SETTING IN. THIS COULD MAKE IT DRIER. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO SEE A
WETTER SCENARIO PER THE GEFS OUTPUT OF AREA STAYING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

SO WILL WAIT ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY POPS MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AT KGLD AND WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND
KMCK THE REST OF TODAY AND UNTIL AROUND 09Z MONDAY. AT THAT TIME A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME PATCHY FOG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
SO IT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. HOWEVER STRATUS WILL PERSIST CAUSING A
REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 142016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. RECENT PATTERN HAS
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR REGULAR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. SO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE WEST.
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. SO PUT THE LOWER MINS THERE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
AND HOW FAST THAT BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL STAY THE
COOLEST AS IT STILL STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH. WINDS COULD GET BREEZY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. AIR MASS STAYS
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK JET LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVES THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS SAME TIME. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG. ELEVATED INHIBITION STAYS VERY HIGH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN
BOUNDARY RH BECOMES SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO FOG WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE MORNING. STRATUS/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IF CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND LONGER OR IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE BACK NORTH AS
FAR AS IT IS INDICATED. COULD DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP IT DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS IN GENERAL IS CAPTURING THE GENERAL
SCENARIO THE BEST. THE GEFS DOES SUPPORT IT BETTER THAN OTHER
INPUT. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS RIGHT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE COULD POSSIBLY MAKE THIS A WET SETUP.

PER THE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...PULLED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
POINT TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE INIT POPS IN THERE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...PER
REASONING ABOUT...COULD SEE THESE NEEDING TO BE HIGHER.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AM CONTENT TO
LEAVE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WHICH IS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COULD BE EAST OF US WITH RIDGING
SETTING IN. THIS COULD MAKE IT DRIER. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO SEE A
WETTER SCENARIO PER THE GEFS OUTPUT OF AREA STAYING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

SO WILL WAIT ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY POPS MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AT KGLD AND WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND
KMCK THE REST OF TODAY AND UNTIL AROUND 09Z MONDAY. AT THAT TIME A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME PATCHY FOG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
SO IT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. HOWEVER STRATUS WILL PERSIST CAUSING A
REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 141912
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
112 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AT KGLD AND WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND
KMCK THE REST OF TODAY AND UNTIL AROUND 09Z MONDAY. AT THAT TIME A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME PATCHY FOG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT SO IT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. HOWEVER STRATUS WILL PERSIST
CAUSING A REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 141912
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
112 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AT KGLD AND WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND
KMCK THE REST OF TODAY AND UNTIL AROUND 09Z MONDAY. AT THAT TIME A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME PATCHY FOG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT SO IT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. HOWEVER STRATUS WILL PERSIST
CAUSING A REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 141738
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY BE OBSERVED FIRST THING THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
SATURATE AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S MAINLY
NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WITH
GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
LARGE HAIL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALOFT
OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE THROUGH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW IN THIS SOLUTION.

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
SATURATE AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AT KGLD AND WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND
KMCK THE REST OF TODAY AND UNTIL AROUND 09Z MONDAY. AT THAT TIME A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME PATCHY FOG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT SO IT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. HOWEVER STRATUS WILL PERSIST
CAUSING A REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 141203
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
603 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY BE OBSERVED FIRST THING THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
SATURATE AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S MAINLY
NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WITH
GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
LARGE HAIL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALOFT
OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE THROUGH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW IN THIS SOLUTION.

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
SATURATE AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPANDING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO AND IS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. EARLIER
EXPECTATIONS WERE THAT AREA WOULD BE INTO THE GLD VICINITY BY
NOW...BUT BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING IN...IT IS LESS LIKELY
IT WILL GET HERE TO CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW VFR THIS
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT GLD VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AS THEY DISSIPATE FOLLOWING
SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT AROUND 09Z TONIGHT.

AT MCK...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED EARLY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z AS THE FRONT
PASSES WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING GUSTY.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MVFR PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 141203
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
603 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY BE OBSERVED FIRST THING THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
SATURATE AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S MAINLY
NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WITH
GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
LARGE HAIL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALOFT
OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE THROUGH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW IN THIS SOLUTION.

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
SATURATE AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPANDING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO AND IS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. EARLIER
EXPECTATIONS WERE THAT AREA WOULD BE INTO THE GLD VICINITY BY
NOW...BUT BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING IN...IT IS LESS LIKELY
IT WILL GET HERE TO CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW VFR THIS
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT GLD VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AS THEY DISSIPATE FOLLOWING
SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT AROUND 09Z TONIGHT.

AT MCK...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED EARLY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z AS THE FRONT
PASSES WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING GUSTY.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MVFR PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 140933
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
333 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY BE OBSERVED FIRST THING THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
SATURATE AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S MAINLY
NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WITH
GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
LARGE HAIL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALOFT
OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE THROUGH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW IN THIS SOLUTION.

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
SATURATE AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND LATEST NAM VIS/BL RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR HOWEVER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EVOLUTION OF CIG/VIS. TD DEPRESSIONS
HAVE DECREASED AND WITH FURTHER COOLING LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW I DECIDED AGAINST ADDING IFR
OR LIFR TO EITHER KGLD OR KMCK...THOUGH BASED ON LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD. INSTEAD
I WILL MVFR CIG/VIS PREVAILING 10-15Z AND THEN VFR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 140933
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
333 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY BE OBSERVED FIRST THING THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
SATURATE AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S MAINLY
NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WITH
GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
LARGE HAIL. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALOFT
OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE THROUGH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW IN THIS SOLUTION.

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
SATURATE AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND LATEST NAM VIS/BL RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR HOWEVER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EVOLUTION OF CIG/VIS. TD DEPRESSIONS
HAVE DECREASED AND WITH FURTHER COOLING LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW I DECIDED AGAINST ADDING IFR
OR LIFR TO EITHER KGLD OR KMCK...THOUGH BASED ON LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD. INSTEAD
I WILL MVFR CIG/VIS PREVAILING 10-15Z AND THEN VFR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 140815
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND DRIFT
EAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. SOME DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF THE
NORTHWEST KANSAS ZONES. SINCE RH IS UNDER 90 PERCENT WILL LEAVE
OUT PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
WITH AROUND 80 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND LATEST NAM VIS/BL RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR HOWEVER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EVOLUTION OF CIG/VIS. TD DEPRESSIONS
HAVE DECREASED AND WITH FURTHER COOLING LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW I DECIDED AGAINST ADDING IFR
OR LIFR TO EITHER KGLD OR KMCK...THOUGH BASED ON LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD. INSTEAD
I WILL MVFR CIG/VIS PREVAILING 10-15Z AND THEN VFR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 140815
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND DRIFT
EAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. SOME DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF THE
NORTHWEST KANSAS ZONES. SINCE RH IS UNDER 90 PERCENT WILL LEAVE
OUT PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
WITH AROUND 80 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS COMING WEEK...BUT EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST TIME TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND LATEST NAM VIS/BL RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR HOWEVER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EVOLUTION OF CIG/VIS. TD DEPRESSIONS
HAVE DECREASED AND WITH FURTHER COOLING LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW I DECIDED AGAINST ADDING IFR
OR LIFR TO EITHER KGLD OR KMCK...THOUGH BASED ON LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD. INSTEAD
I WILL MVFR CIG/VIS PREVAILING 10-15Z AND THEN VFR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 140519
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND DRIFT
EAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. SOME DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF THE
NORTHWEST KANSAS ZONES. SINCE RH IS UNDER 90 PERCENT WILL LEAVE
OUT PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
WITH AROUND 80 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE BROAD/PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

MODELS LOOKED TO START OUT FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER
AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER. THE ECMWF...SREF AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE ON THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND TENDED TO BE TOO WARM. THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES BUT A MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE INDICATING A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS LIFT TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME. SO WILL ACTUALLY BE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE JET.

ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY. NEW MODEL RUN IS
FURTHER NORTH AND SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL LIFT. SO KEPT POPS OUT
UNTIL MID EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD. THERE IS A LOT OF ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION IS RATHER HIGH TOO. STORMS COULD POSSIBLY GET
STRONG DURING THIS TIME.

MODELS STILL SHOW FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK FOLLOWING
BEHIND IT. MODELS INDICATING FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
REINTRODUCED FOG.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND ON POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND IN THE MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH SOME FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AM VERY CONCERNED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEING TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE FACT THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS
AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD. SO LOWERED THEM ABOUT 3
DEGREES. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE CLOUD
COVER BREAKS UP...WHICH THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN UNDERDOING
AND CLEARING OUT TOO FAST IN THE DAY.

AS HAS BEEN REALITY THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...MODELS ARE DEPICTING
STRATUS AND FOG RETURNING TO THE AREA AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE CLOUD
COVER IS INCREASED APPROPRIATELY AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FOG
SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN LATELY. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS. SO
MADE THEIR MINS COOLER THAN IN THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE STRATUS BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
LONG THE STRATUS HOLDS ON. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN
THE WEST WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER TO BE GONE BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. TENDED TO TOWARD THE COOLER FORECAST MAXES DUE TO
RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

ONCE AGAIN MODELS START WITH DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO HOW THEY
HANDLE THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE/BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS
IS AFFECTED BY HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD GETS EXTREMELY WIDE THE
LAST TWO DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. FORECAST ALSO MADE MORE COMPLICATED
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVING
INTO/GETTING INVOLVED WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE NEWEST GFS WERE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING FROM
700 TO 500 MB FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ENSEMBLES
DO SUPPORT TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
THAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DOING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DONE ALMOST A COMPLETE REVERSAL WITH
A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NO
SIGN OF ANY CUTOFF CLOSE. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE DRAMATICALLY.
THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT MAKES THE NEW ECMWF AN OUTLIER AND ADDS
SUPPORT TO THE GFS. THIS MAKES THE END OF THE EXTENDED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND PROBLEMATIC TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT.

BASED ON REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...CHOSE TO NOT ONLY LEAVE THE POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALONE BUT ALSO ALL THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. THE POPS ARE
PRETTY HIGH FOR SEVEN DAYS OUT. AT THIS TIME THEY GET AS HIGH AS
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY. STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS TURNS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND LATEST NAM VIS/BL RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR HOWEVER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EVOLUTION OF CIG/VIS. TD DEPRESSIONS
HAVE DECREASED AND WITH FURTHER COOLING LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW I DECIDED AGAINST ADDING IFR
OR LIFR TO EITHER KGLD OR KMCK...THOUGH BASED ON LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD. INSTEAD
I WILL MVFR CIG/VIS PREVAILING 10-15Z AND THEN VFR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 140519
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND DRIFT
EAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. SOME DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF THE
NORTHWEST KANSAS ZONES. SINCE RH IS UNDER 90 PERCENT WILL LEAVE
OUT PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
WITH AROUND 80 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE BROAD/PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

MODELS LOOKED TO START OUT FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER
AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER. THE ECMWF...SREF AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE ON THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND TENDED TO BE TOO WARM. THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES BUT A MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE INDICATING A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS LIFT TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME. SO WILL ACTUALLY BE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE JET.

ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY. NEW MODEL RUN IS
FURTHER NORTH AND SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL LIFT. SO KEPT POPS OUT
UNTIL MID EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD. THERE IS A LOT OF ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION IS RATHER HIGH TOO. STORMS COULD POSSIBLY GET
STRONG DURING THIS TIME.

MODELS STILL SHOW FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK FOLLOWING
BEHIND IT. MODELS INDICATING FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
REINTRODUCED FOG.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND ON POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND IN THE MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH SOME FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AM VERY CONCERNED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEING TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE FACT THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS
AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD. SO LOWERED THEM ABOUT 3
DEGREES. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE CLOUD
COVER BREAKS UP...WHICH THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN UNDERDOING
AND CLEARING OUT TOO FAST IN THE DAY.

AS HAS BEEN REALITY THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...MODELS ARE DEPICTING
STRATUS AND FOG RETURNING TO THE AREA AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE CLOUD
COVER IS INCREASED APPROPRIATELY AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FOG
SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN LATELY. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS. SO
MADE THEIR MINS COOLER THAN IN THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE STRATUS BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
LONG THE STRATUS HOLDS ON. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN
THE WEST WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER TO BE GONE BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. TENDED TO TOWARD THE COOLER FORECAST MAXES DUE TO
RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

ONCE AGAIN MODELS START WITH DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO HOW THEY
HANDLE THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE/BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS
IS AFFECTED BY HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD GETS EXTREMELY WIDE THE
LAST TWO DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. FORECAST ALSO MADE MORE COMPLICATED
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVING
INTO/GETTING INVOLVED WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE NEWEST GFS WERE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING FROM
700 TO 500 MB FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ENSEMBLES
DO SUPPORT TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
THAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DOING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DONE ALMOST A COMPLETE REVERSAL WITH
A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NO
SIGN OF ANY CUTOFF CLOSE. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE DRAMATICALLY.
THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT MAKES THE NEW ECMWF AN OUTLIER AND ADDS
SUPPORT TO THE GFS. THIS MAKES THE END OF THE EXTENDED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND PROBLEMATIC TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT.

BASED ON REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...CHOSE TO NOT ONLY LEAVE THE POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALONE BUT ALSO ALL THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. THE POPS ARE
PRETTY HIGH FOR SEVEN DAYS OUT. AT THIS TIME THEY GET AS HIGH AS
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY. STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS TURNS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND LATEST NAM VIS/BL RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR HOWEVER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EVOLUTION OF CIG/VIS. TD DEPRESSIONS
HAVE DECREASED AND WITH FURTHER COOLING LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW I DECIDED AGAINST ADDING IFR
OR LIFR TO EITHER KGLD OR KMCK...THOUGH BASED ON LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD. INSTEAD
I WILL MVFR CIG/VIS PREVAILING 10-15Z AND THEN VFR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 132330
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND DRIFT
EAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. SOME DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF THE
NORTHWEST KANSAS ZONES. SINCE RH IS UNDER 90 PERCENT WILL LEAVE
OUT PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
WITH AROUND 80 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE BROAD/PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

MODELS LOOKED TO START OUT FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER
AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER. THE ECMWF...SREF AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE ON THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND TENDED TO BE TOO WARM. THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES BUT A MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE INDICATING A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS LIFT TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME. SO WILL ACTUALLY BE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE JET.

ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY. NEW MODEL RUN IS
FURTHER NORTH AND SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL LIFT. SO KEPT POPS OUT
UNTIL MID EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD. THERE IS A LOT OF ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION IS RATHER HIGH TOO. STORMS COULD POSSIBLY GET
STRONG DURING THIS TIME.

MODELS STILL SHOW FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK FOLLOWING
BEHIND IT. MODELS INDICATING FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
REINTRODUCED FOG.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND ON POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND IN THE MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH SOME FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AM VERY CONCERNED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEING TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE FACT THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS
AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD. SO LOWERED THEM ABOUT 3
DEGREES. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE CLOUD
COVER BREAKS UP...WHICH THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN UNDERDOING
AND CLEARING OUT TOO FAST IN THE DAY.

AS HAS BEEN REALITY THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...MODELS ARE DEPICTING
STRATUS AND FOG RETURNING TO THE AREA AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE CLOUD
COVER IS INCREASED APPROPRIATELY AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FOG
SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN LATELY. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS. SO
MADE THEIR MINS COOLER THAN IN THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE STRATUS BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
LONG THE STRATUS HOLDS ON. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN
THE WEST WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER TO BE GONE BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. TENDED TO TOWARD THE COOLER FORECAST MAXES DUE TO
RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

ONCE AGAIN MODELS START WITH DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO HOW THEY
HANDLE THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE/BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS
IS AFFECTED BY HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD GETS EXTREMELY WIDE THE
LAST TWO DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. FORECAST ALSO MADE MORE COMPLICATED
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVING
INTO/GETTING INVOLVED WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE NEWEST GFS WERE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING FROM
700 TO 500 MB FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ENSEMBLES
DO SUPPORT TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
THAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DOING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DONE ALMOST A COMPLETE REVERSAL WITH
A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NO
SIGN OF ANY CUTOFF CLOSE. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE DRAMATICALLY.
THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT MAKES THE NEW ECMWF AN OUTLIER AND ADDS
SUPPORT TO THE GFS. THIS MAKES THE END OF THE EXTENDED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND PROBLEMATIC TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT.

BASED ON REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...CHOSE TO NOT ONLY LEAVE THE POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALONE BUT ALSO ALL THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. THE POPS ARE
PRETTY HIGH FOR SEVEN DAYS OUT. AT THIS TIME THEY GET AS HIGH AS
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY. STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS TURNS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST 6 HR OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. LESS CERTAINTY AFTER 06Z AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS
AND STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW THIS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH BL MIXING TO SUPPORT
MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT...THOUGH NAM AND LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING IFR/LIFR VIS OVER PARTS OF SW NEBRASKA. THIS
MAY BE END UP BEING MAINLY TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND COULD IMPACT
KMCK. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN MVFR
CIG/VIS GROUPS TO KGLD/KMCK SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD
OCCUR BY MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 132330
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND DRIFT
EAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. SOME DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF THE
NORTHWEST KANSAS ZONES. SINCE RH IS UNDER 90 PERCENT WILL LEAVE
OUT PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
WITH AROUND 80 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE BROAD/PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

MODELS LOOKED TO START OUT FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER
AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER. THE ECMWF...SREF AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE ON THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND TENDED TO BE TOO WARM. THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES BUT A MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE INDICATING A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS LIFT TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME. SO WILL ACTUALLY BE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE JET.

ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY. NEW MODEL RUN IS
FURTHER NORTH AND SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL LIFT. SO KEPT POPS OUT
UNTIL MID EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD. THERE IS A LOT OF ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION IS RATHER HIGH TOO. STORMS COULD POSSIBLY GET
STRONG DURING THIS TIME.

MODELS STILL SHOW FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK FOLLOWING
BEHIND IT. MODELS INDICATING FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
REINTRODUCED FOG.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND ON POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND IN THE MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH SOME FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AM VERY CONCERNED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEING TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE FACT THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS
AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD. SO LOWERED THEM ABOUT 3
DEGREES. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE CLOUD
COVER BREAKS UP...WHICH THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN UNDERDOING
AND CLEARING OUT TOO FAST IN THE DAY.

AS HAS BEEN REALITY THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...MODELS ARE DEPICTING
STRATUS AND FOG RETURNING TO THE AREA AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE CLOUD
COVER IS INCREASED APPROPRIATELY AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FOG
SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN LATELY. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS. SO
MADE THEIR MINS COOLER THAN IN THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE STRATUS BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
LONG THE STRATUS HOLDS ON. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN
THE WEST WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER TO BE GONE BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. TENDED TO TOWARD THE COOLER FORECAST MAXES DUE TO
RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

ONCE AGAIN MODELS START WITH DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO HOW THEY
HANDLE THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE/BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS
IS AFFECTED BY HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD GETS EXTREMELY WIDE THE
LAST TWO DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. FORECAST ALSO MADE MORE COMPLICATED
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVING
INTO/GETTING INVOLVED WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE NEWEST GFS WERE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING FROM
700 TO 500 MB FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ENSEMBLES
DO SUPPORT TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
THAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DOING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DONE ALMOST A COMPLETE REVERSAL WITH
A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NO
SIGN OF ANY CUTOFF CLOSE. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE DRAMATICALLY.
THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT MAKES THE NEW ECMWF AN OUTLIER AND ADDS
SUPPORT TO THE GFS. THIS MAKES THE END OF THE EXTENDED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND PROBLEMATIC TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT.

BASED ON REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...CHOSE TO NOT ONLY LEAVE THE POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALONE BUT ALSO ALL THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. THE POPS ARE
PRETTY HIGH FOR SEVEN DAYS OUT. AT THIS TIME THEY GET AS HIGH AS
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY. STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS TURNS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST 6 HR OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. LESS CERTAINTY AFTER 06Z AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS
AND STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW THIS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH BL MIXING TO SUPPORT
MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT...THOUGH NAM AND LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING IFR/LIFR VIS OVER PARTS OF SW NEBRASKA. THIS
MAY BE END UP BEING MAINLY TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND COULD IMPACT
KMCK. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN MVFR
CIG/VIS GROUPS TO KGLD/KMCK SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD
OCCUR BY MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 131956
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND DRIFT
EAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. SOME DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF THE
NORTHWEST KANSAS ZONES. SINCE RH IS UNDER 90 PERCENT WILL LEAVE
OUT PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
WITH AROUND 80 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE BROAD/PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

MODELS LOOKED TO START OUT FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER
AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER. THE ECMWF...SREF AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE ON THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND TENDED TO BE TOO WARM. THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES BUT A MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE INDICATING A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS LIFT TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME. SO WILL ACTUALLY BE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE JET.

ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY. NEW MODEL RUN IS
FURTHER NORTH AND SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL LIFT. SO KEPT POPS OUT
UNTIL MID EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD. THERE IS A LOT OF ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION IS RATHER HIGH TOO. STORMS COULD POSSIBLY GET
STRONG DURING THIS TIME.

MODELS STILL SHOW FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK FOLLOWING
BEHIND IT. MODELS INDICATING FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
REINTRODUCED FOG.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND ON POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTH AND EAST...AND
IN THE MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH SOME FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AM VERY CONCERNED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEING TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE FACT THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS
AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD. SO LOWERED THEM ABOUT 3
DEGREES. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE CLOUD
COVER BREAKS UP...WHICH THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN UNDERDOING
AND CLEARING OUT TOO FAST IN THE DAY.

AS HAS BEEN REALITY THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...MODELS ARE DEPICTING
STRATUS AND FOG RETURNING TO THE AREA AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE CLOUD
COVER IS INCREASED APPROPRIATELY AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FOG
SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN LATELY. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS. SO
MADE THEIR MINS COOLER THAN IN THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE STRATUS BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
LONG THE STRATUS HOLDS ON. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN
THE WEST WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER TO BE GONE BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. TENDED TO TOWARD THE COOLER FORECAST MAXES DUE TO
RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

ONCE AGAIN MODELS START WITH DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO HOW THEY
HANDLE THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE/BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS
IS AFFECTED BY HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD GETS EXTREMELY WIDE THE
LAST TWO DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. FORECAST ALSO MADE MORE COMPLICATED
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVING
INTO/GETTING INVOLVED WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE NEWEST GFS WERE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING FROM
700 TO 500 MB FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ENSEMBLES
DO SUPPORT TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
THAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DOING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DONE ALMOST A COMPLETE REVERSAL WITH
A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NO
SIGN OF ANY CUTOFF CLOSE. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE DRAMATICALLY.
THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT MAKES THE NEW ECMWF AN OUTLIER AND ADDS
SUPPORT TO THE GFS. THIS MAKES THE END OF THE EXTENDED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND PROBLEMATIC TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT.

BASED ON REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS...CHOSE
TO NOT ONLY LEAVE THE POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONE BUT
ALSO ALL THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. THE POPS ARE PRETTY HIGH FOR SEVEN
DAYS OUT. AT THIS TIME THEY GET AS HIGH AS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY. STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS TURNS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

LATE MORNING MVFR STRATUS DECK AT KGLD SHOULD BREAK UP EARLY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT WHEN SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AT KGLD SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS TODAY.
KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE SAME AREA OF
MOISTURE RETURN MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THERE SINCE THE SITE IS ON THE EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 131956
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND DRIFT
EAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. SOME DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF THE
NORTHWEST KANSAS ZONES. SINCE RH IS UNDER 90 PERCENT WILL LEAVE
OUT PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
WITH AROUND 80 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE BROAD/PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

MODELS LOOKED TO START OUT FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER
AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER. THE ECMWF...SREF AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE ON THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND TENDED TO BE TOO WARM. THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES BUT A MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE INDICATING A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS LIFT TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME. SO WILL ACTUALLY BE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE JET.

ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY. NEW MODEL RUN IS
FURTHER NORTH AND SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL LIFT. SO KEPT POPS OUT
UNTIL MID EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD. THERE IS A LOT OF ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION IS RATHER HIGH TOO. STORMS COULD POSSIBLY GET
STRONG DURING THIS TIME.

MODELS STILL SHOW FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK FOLLOWING
BEHIND IT. MODELS INDICATING FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
REINTRODUCED FOG.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND ON POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTH AND EAST...AND
IN THE MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH SOME FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AM VERY CONCERNED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEING TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MODELS
CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT TOO FAST BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE FACT THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS
AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD. SO LOWERED THEM ABOUT 3
DEGREES. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE CLOUD
COVER BREAKS UP...WHICH THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN UNDERDOING
AND CLEARING OUT TOO FAST IN THE DAY.

AS HAS BEEN REALITY THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...MODELS ARE DEPICTING
STRATUS AND FOG RETURNING TO THE AREA AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE CLOUD
COVER IS INCREASED APPROPRIATELY AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FOG
SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN LATELY. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS. SO
MADE THEIR MINS COOLER THAN IN THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE STRATUS BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
LONG THE STRATUS HOLDS ON. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN
THE WEST WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER TO BE GONE BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. TENDED TO TOWARD THE COOLER FORECAST MAXES DUE TO
RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

ONCE AGAIN MODELS START WITH DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO HOW THEY
HANDLE THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE/BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS
IS AFFECTED BY HOW THEY HANDLE THE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD GETS EXTREMELY WIDE THE
LAST TWO DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. FORECAST ALSO MADE MORE COMPLICATED
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVING
INTO/GETTING INVOLVED WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE NEWEST GFS WERE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING FROM
700 TO 500 MB FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ENSEMBLES
DO SUPPORT TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
THAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DOING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DONE ALMOST A COMPLETE REVERSAL WITH
A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NO
SIGN OF ANY CUTOFF CLOSE. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE DRAMATICALLY.
THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT MAKES THE NEW ECMWF AN OUTLIER AND ADDS
SUPPORT TO THE GFS. THIS MAKES THE END OF THE EXTENDED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND PROBLEMATIC TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT.

BASED ON REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS...CHOSE
TO NOT ONLY LEAVE THE POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONE BUT
ALSO ALL THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. THE POPS ARE PRETTY HIGH FOR SEVEN
DAYS OUT. AT THIS TIME THEY GET AS HIGH AS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY. STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS TURNS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

LATE MORNING MVFR STRATUS DECK AT KGLD SHOULD BREAK UP EARLY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT WHEN SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AT KGLD SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS TODAY.
KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE SAME AREA OF
MOISTURE RETURN MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THERE SINCE THE SITE IS ON THE EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS




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