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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
447 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL RETROGRESS TO A CENTER OVER
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST CCLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.
LATER TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. POPS WILL
BE NIL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE AND THE TROUGH POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA. POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE TIED TO THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. POPS SHOULD BE HIGHEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  POPS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 100 IN THE EASTERN FA. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
TO MID/UPPER 90S. MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE AREA. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS PROGRESSES EAST AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THERE ARE HOWEVER SOME PATCHY POPS DUE TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE WEAKENED RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES AT THE START OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED AND GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD...REACHING THE 90S BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILLCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KMCK AND
KGLD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDTIONS COULD OCCUR AT KGLD LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR EAST AS KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
447 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL RETROGRESS TO A CENTER OVER
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST CCLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.
LATER TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. POPS WILL
BE NIL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE AND THE TROUGH POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA. POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE TIED TO THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. POPS SHOULD BE HIGHEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  POPS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 100 IN THE EASTERN FA. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
TO MID/UPPER 90S. MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE AREA. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS PROGRESSES EAST AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THERE ARE HOWEVER SOME PATCHY POPS DUE TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE WEAKENED RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES AT THE START OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED AND GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD...REACHING THE 90S BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILLCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KMCK AND
KGLD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDTIONS COULD OCCUR AT KGLD LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR EAST AS KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
447 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL RETROGRESS TO A CENTER OVER
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST CCLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.
LATER TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. POPS WILL
BE NIL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE AND THE TROUGH POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA. POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE TIED TO THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. POPS SHOULD BE HIGHEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  POPS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 100 IN THE EASTERN FA. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
TO MID/UPPER 90S. MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE AREA. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS PROGRESSES EAST AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THERE ARE HOWEVER SOME PATCHY POPS DUE TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE WEAKENED RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES AT THE START OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED AND GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD...REACHING THE 90S BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILLCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KMCK AND
KGLD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDTIONS COULD OCCUR AT KGLD LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR EAST AS KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
447 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL RETROGRESS TO A CENTER OVER
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST CCLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.
LATER TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. POPS WILL
BE NIL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE AND THE TROUGH POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA. POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE TIED TO THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. POPS SHOULD BE HIGHEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  POPS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 100 IN THE EASTERN FA. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
TO MID/UPPER 90S. MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE AREA. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS PROGRESSES EAST AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THERE ARE HOWEVER SOME PATCHY POPS DUE TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE WEAKENED RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES AT THE START OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED AND GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD...REACHING THE 90S BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILLCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KMCK AND
KGLD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDTIONS COULD OCCUR AT KGLD LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR EAST AS KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300856
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL RETROGRESS TO A CENTER OVER
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST CCLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.
LATER TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. POPS WILL
BE NIL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE AND THE TROUGH POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA. POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE TIED TO THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. POPS SHOULD BE HIGHEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  POPS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 100 IN THE EASTERN FA. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
TO MID/UPPER 90S. MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE AREA. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS PROGRESSES EAST AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THERE ARE HOWEVER SOME PATCHY POPS DUE TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE WEAKENED RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES AT THE START OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED AND GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD...REACHING THE 90S BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS THE GRADUALLY BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT
BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300856
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL RETROGRESS TO A CENTER OVER
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST CCLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.
LATER TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. POPS WILL
BE NIL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE AND THE TROUGH POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA. POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE TIED TO THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. POPS SHOULD BE HIGHEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  POPS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 100 IN THE EASTERN FA. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
TO MID/UPPER 90S. MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE AREA. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS PROGRESSES EAST AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THERE ARE HOWEVER SOME PATCHY POPS DUE TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE WEAKENED RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES AT THE START OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED AND GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD...REACHING THE 90S BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS THE GRADUALLY BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT
BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300856
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL RETROGRESS TO A CENTER OVER
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST CCLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.
LATER TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. POPS WILL
BE NIL WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE AND THE TROUGH POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA. POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE TIED TO THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. POPS SHOULD BE HIGHEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  POPS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 100 IN THE EASTERN FA. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
TO MID/UPPER 90S. MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE AREA. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS PROGRESSES EAST AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THERE ARE HOWEVER SOME PATCHY POPS DUE TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE WEAKENED RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES AT THE START OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED AND GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD...REACHING THE 90S BY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS THE GRADUALLY BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT
BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300456
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ALSO
A SHORTWAVE AND JET IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO
MAINTAIN STORMS. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ONLY LOOK TO LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...BUT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF A 700 MB JET
COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
SPEEDS AT 35KT+.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB...SO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JET COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STORMY WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
STATES.  GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH THE GFS PRECIPITATING OVER AN INCH AT
THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN NAM SOUNDINGS COULD INDICATE THE NEXT BIGGER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE LESS EXCITED WITH SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  BEING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DECAYING
RIDGE ALOFT...SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AS TO GOOD PROFILE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO BRING VERY HEAVY SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT BECAUSE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A HEAVY INFLUENCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SWAYED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF QPF FORECAST
INSTEAD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS THE GRADUALLY BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT
BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300456
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ALSO
A SHORTWAVE AND JET IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO
MAINTAIN STORMS. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ONLY LOOK TO LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...BUT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF A 700 MB JET
COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
SPEEDS AT 35KT+.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB...SO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JET COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STORMY WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
STATES.  GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH THE GFS PRECIPITATING OVER AN INCH AT
THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN NAM SOUNDINGS COULD INDICATE THE NEXT BIGGER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE LESS EXCITED WITH SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  BEING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DECAYING
RIDGE ALOFT...SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AS TO GOOD PROFILE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO BRING VERY HEAVY SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT BECAUSE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A HEAVY INFLUENCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SWAYED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF QPF FORECAST
INSTEAD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS THE GRADUALLY BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT
BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300456
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ALSO
A SHORTWAVE AND JET IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO
MAINTAIN STORMS. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ONLY LOOK TO LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...BUT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF A 700 MB JET
COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
SPEEDS AT 35KT+.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB...SO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JET COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STORMY WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
STATES.  GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH THE GFS PRECIPITATING OVER AN INCH AT
THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN NAM SOUNDINGS COULD INDICATE THE NEXT BIGGER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE LESS EXCITED WITH SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  BEING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DECAYING
RIDGE ALOFT...SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AS TO GOOD PROFILE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO BRING VERY HEAVY SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT BECAUSE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A HEAVY INFLUENCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SWAYED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF QPF FORECAST
INSTEAD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS THE GRADUALLY BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT
BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ALSO
A SHORTWAVE AND JET IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO
MAINTAIN STORMS. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ONLY LOOK TO LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...BUT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF A 700 MB JET
COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
SPEEDS AT 35KT+.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB...SO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JET COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STORMY WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
STATES.  GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH THE GFS PRECIPITATING OVER AN INCH AT
THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN NAM SOUNDINGS COULD INDICATE THE NEXT BIGGER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE LESS EXCITED WITH SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  BEING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DECAYING
RIDGE ALOFT...SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AS TO GOOD PROFILE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO BRING VERY HEAVY SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT BECAUSE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A HEAVY INFLUENCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SWAYED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF QPF FORECAST
INSTEAD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR KGLD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STAY NEAR THE SITE
THROUGH 03Z. VERY HARD TO TELL IF SITE WILL DEFINITELY GET
AFFECTED BY A STORM DUE TO THE LOCATION OF STORMS BEING DETERMINED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. SO ONLY HAVE A VCTS MENTION. OTHER
WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SHIFTING OF THE
WINDS TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSE TO THE SITE SO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ALSO
A SHORTWAVE AND JET IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO
MAINTAIN STORMS. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ONLY LOOK TO LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...BUT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF A 700 MB JET
COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
SPEEDS AT 35KT+.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB...SO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JET COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STORMY WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
STATES.  GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH THE GFS PRECIPITATING OVER AN INCH AT
THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN NAM SOUNDINGS COULD INDICATE THE NEXT BIGGER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE LESS EXCITED WITH SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  BEING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DECAYING
RIDGE ALOFT...SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AS TO GOOD PROFILE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO BRING VERY HEAVY SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT BECAUSE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A HEAVY INFLUENCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SWAYED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF QPF FORECAST
INSTEAD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR KGLD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STAY NEAR THE SITE
THROUGH 03Z. VERY HARD TO TELL IF SITE WILL DEFINITELY GET
AFFECTED BY A STORM DUE TO THE LOCATION OF STORMS BEING DETERMINED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. SO ONLY HAVE A VCTS MENTION. OTHER
WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SHIFTING OF THE
WINDS TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSE TO THE SITE SO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292132
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
332 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ALSO
A SHORTWAVE AND JET IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO
MAINTAIN STORMS. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ONLY LOOK TO LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...BUT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF A 700 MB JET
COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
SPEEDS AT 35KT+.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB...SO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JET COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STORMY WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
STATES.  GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH THE GFS PRECIPITATING OVER AN INCH AT
THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN NAM SOUNDINGS COULD INDICATE THE NEXT BIGGER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE LESS EXCITED WITH SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  BEING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DECAYING
RIDGE ALOFT...SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AS TO GOOD PROFILE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO BRING VERY HEAVY SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT BECAUSE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A HEAVY INFLUENCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SWAYED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF QPF FORECAST
INSTEAD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATE ON TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KGLD. AT THIS
TIME WILL HAVE A VCTS MENTION UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292132
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
332 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ALSO
A SHORTWAVE AND JET IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO
MAINTAIN STORMS. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ONLY LOOK TO LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...BUT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF A 700 MB JET
COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
SPEEDS AT 35KT+.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB...SO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JET COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STORMY WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
STATES.  GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH THE GFS PRECIPITATING OVER AN INCH AT
THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN NAM SOUNDINGS COULD INDICATE THE NEXT BIGGER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE LESS EXCITED WITH SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  BEING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DECAYING
RIDGE ALOFT...SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AS TO GOOD PROFILE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO BRING VERY HEAVY SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT BECAUSE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A HEAVY INFLUENCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SWAYED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF QPF FORECAST
INSTEAD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATE ON TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KGLD. AT THIS
TIME WILL HAVE A VCTS MENTION UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...BUT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF A 700 MB JET
COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
SPEEDS AT 35KT+.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB...SO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JET COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STORMY WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
STATES.  GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH THE GFS PRECIPITATING OVER AN INCH AT
THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN NAM SOUNDINGS COULD INDICATE THE NEXT BIGGER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE LESS EXCITED WITH SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  BEING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DECAYING
RIDGE ALOFT...SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AS TO GOOD PROFILE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO BRING VERY HEAVY SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT BECAUSE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A HEAVY INFLUENCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SWAYED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF QPF FORECAST
INSTEAD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291859
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRALHIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291859
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRALHIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1219 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MAINLY THROUGH FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1219 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MAINLY THROUGH FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291500
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MAINLY THROUGH FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291500
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MAINLY THROUGH FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291102
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291102
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291102
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291102
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT KGLD
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290845
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290845
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290845
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290845
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
RETROGRESSES TO NEVADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PLAN ON CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE NAM AND THE HRRR HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST FA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING TO
NIL VALUES. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE WESTERN FA AND THE UPPER 90S (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) IN
THE EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES TUESDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH COOLEST READINGS IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT REBOUNDS ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S...COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290518
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS AND THE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT...LOWERED THE MINS ABOUT 3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO CONVECTION ARE QUITE THICK OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290518
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS AND THE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT...LOWERED THE MINS ABOUT 3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO CONVECTION ARE QUITE THICK OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290518
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS AND THE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT...LOWERED THE MINS ABOUT 3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO CONVECTION ARE QUITE THICK OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290518
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS AND THE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT...LOWERED THE MINS ABOUT 3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO CONVECTION ARE QUITE THICK OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
730 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS AND THE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT...LOWERED THE MINS ABOUT 3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO CONVECTION ARE QUITE THICK OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT
MODEL DATA TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY
TO THE WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS FROM
THIS DATA THAT THESE STORMS COULD MAKE IT FURTHER EAST. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION FOR KGLD...WHICH HAS THE ONLY CHANCE TO SEE
STORMS..AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMCK...THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
730 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS AND THE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT...LOWERED THE MINS ABOUT 3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO CONVECTION ARE QUITE THICK OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT
MODEL DATA TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY
TO THE WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS FROM
THIS DATA THAT THESE STORMS COULD MAKE IT FURTHER EAST. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION FOR KGLD...WHICH HAS THE ONLY CHANCE TO SEE
STORMS..AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMCK...THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
730 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS AND THE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT...LOWERED THE MINS ABOUT 3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO CONVECTION ARE QUITE THICK OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT
MODEL DATA TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY
TO THE WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS FROM
THIS DATA THAT THESE STORMS COULD MAKE IT FURTHER EAST. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION FOR KGLD...WHICH HAS THE ONLY CHANCE TO SEE
STORMS..AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMCK...THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
730 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS AND THE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT...LOWERED THE MINS ABOUT 3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO CONVECTION ARE QUITE THICK OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT
MODEL DATA TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY
TO THE WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS FROM
THIS DATA THAT THESE STORMS COULD MAKE IT FURTHER EAST. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION FOR KGLD...WHICH HAS THE ONLY CHANCE TO SEE
STORMS..AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMCK...THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 282340
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT
MODEL DATA TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY
TO THE WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS FROM
THIS DATA THAT THESE STORMS COULD MAKE IT FURTHER EAST. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION FOR KGLD...WHICH HAS THE ONLY CHANCE TO SEE
STORMS..AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMCK...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 282340
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT
MODEL DATA TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY
TO THE WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS FROM
THIS DATA THAT THESE STORMS COULD MAKE IT FURTHER EAST. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION FOR KGLD...WHICH HAS THE ONLY CHANCE TO SEE
STORMS..AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMCK...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 282000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMEPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF THE
BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN HOTTER READINGS
TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S
WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

QUIET TAF PERIOD AHEAD FOR BOTH TERMINALS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281918
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

QUIET TAF PERIOD AHEAD FOR BOTH TERMINALS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281918
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

QUIET TAF PERIOD AHEAD FOR BOTH TERMINALS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT
MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS. PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA. SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

QUIET TAF PERIOD AHEAD FOR BOTH TERMINALS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT
MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS. PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA. SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

QUIET TAF PERIOD AHEAD FOR BOTH TERMINALS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT
MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS. PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA. SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

QUIET TAF PERIOD AHEAD FOR BOTH TERMINALS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT
MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS. PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA. SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

QUIET TAF PERIOD AHEAD FOR BOTH TERMINALS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281053
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS.  PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA.  SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281053
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS.  PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA.  SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281053
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS.  PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA.  SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281053
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS.  PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA.  SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS.  PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA.  SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN
JUN 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE
PAST FEW DAYS... WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER ELONGATED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS HEIGHT CENTER WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH EACH PASSING OF SHORTWAVES AND
COOL FRONTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. COME SUNDAY... AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES
MORE ZONAL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA... THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THERE WILL BE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS.  PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA.  SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THERE WILL BE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS.  PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA.  SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THERE WILL BE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280456
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THERE WILL BE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280456
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THERE WILL BE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272246
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
446 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE THE PASSAGE OF
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS
THEY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN FINALLY TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH
DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272246
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
446 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE THE PASSAGE OF
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS
THEY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN FINALLY TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH
DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272246
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
446 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE THE PASSAGE OF
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS
THEY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN FINALLY TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH
DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272246
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
446 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE THE PASSAGE OF
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS
THEY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN FINALLY TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH
DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272009
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
209 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR
SO BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 02Z-11Z OR SO BEFORE SOME CIRRUS MOVES
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 03Z-07Z. AFTER 08Z A CONSTANT AND STEADY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272009
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
209 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR
SO BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 02Z-11Z OR SO BEFORE SOME CIRRUS MOVES
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 03Z-07Z. AFTER 08Z A CONSTANT AND STEADY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 271900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL
LOOKS TO BE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... TO THE
NORTH... WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG
WAA OVER THE TRI STATE AREA. THIS COULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO AROUND 100F ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
HAVE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL DOWN TO
THE LOWER 80S BY THE FOURTH OF JULY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
STILL CONTINUES AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR
SO BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 02Z-11Z OR SO BEFORE SOME CIRRUS MOVES
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 03Z-07Z. AFTER 08Z A CONSTANT AND STEADY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL
LOOKS TO BE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... TO THE
NORTH... WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG
WAA OVER THE TRI STATE AREA. THIS COULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO AROUND 100F ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
HAVE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL DOWN TO
THE LOWER 80S BY THE FOURTH OF JULY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
STILL CONTINUES AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR
SO BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 02Z-11Z OR SO BEFORE SOME CIRRUS MOVES
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 03Z-07Z. AFTER 08Z A CONSTANT AND STEADY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99





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