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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011758
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. A LOT OF THINGS GOING ON. FIRST
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. NUMEROUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE
AND TRENDS WERE SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE GOING TO BE COOLER
THAN EXPECTED. SO USING THE LATEST TRENDS AND BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...LOWERED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT LAPSE RATES ALOFT. AT THE SAME
TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER JET IS MOVING THROUGH. SATELLITE...RADAR...AND LOOKING
OUT THE WINDOW SHOW THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BECAUSE
OF ALL THIS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE BUT SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL WE START TO STABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF...AND INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SHOW THAT BLOWING SNOW IS OCCURRING NEAR
AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. ONLY ABOUT AN INCH TO
MAYBE AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW OUT THERE BUT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH CAUSING SPOTTY BLOWING SNOW. SO INSERTED
PATCHY BLOWING IN THE SNOW FIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  BEHIND THE FRONT SNOW
HAD ENDED OR WAS COMING TO AN END AND NORTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO
ALMOST 40 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MORE AS THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE TODAY.

THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL HIT BOTTOM THEN BEGIN TO WARM AS WAA
MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG WINDS FROM THE DAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY RECORDS.

A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
THE AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ALSO PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A MAXIMUM OF 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW THAT WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS IT IS ALSO FLATTENED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DIRTY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

FOR KGLD...SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE
AND PERIODIC FLURRIES TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 26 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER THAT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...SPORADIC AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SUN GOES DONE. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011758
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. A LOT OF THINGS GOING ON. FIRST
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. NUMEROUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE
AND TRENDS WERE SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE GOING TO BE COOLER
THAN EXPECTED. SO USING THE LATEST TRENDS AND BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...LOWERED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT LAPSE RATES ALOFT. AT THE SAME
TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER JET IS MOVING THROUGH. SATELLITE...RADAR...AND LOOKING
OUT THE WINDOW SHOW THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BECAUSE
OF ALL THIS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE BUT SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL WE START TO STABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF...AND INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SHOW THAT BLOWING SNOW IS OCCURRING NEAR
AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. ONLY ABOUT AN INCH TO
MAYBE AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW OUT THERE BUT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH CAUSING SPOTTY BLOWING SNOW. SO INSERTED
PATCHY BLOWING IN THE SNOW FIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  BEHIND THE FRONT SNOW
HAD ENDED OR WAS COMING TO AN END AND NORTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO
ALMOST 40 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MORE AS THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE TODAY.

THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL HIT BOTTOM THEN BEGIN TO WARM AS WAA
MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG WINDS FROM THE DAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY RECORDS.

A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
THE AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ALSO PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A MAXIMUM OF 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW THAT WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS IT IS ALSO FLATTENED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DIRTY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

FOR KGLD...SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE
AND PERIODIC FLURRIES TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 26 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER THAT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...SPORADIC AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SUN GOES DONE. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011142
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  BEHIND THE FRONT SNOW
HAD ENDED OR WAS COMING TO AN END AND NORTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO
ALMOST 40 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MORE AS THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE TODAY.

THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL HIT BOTTOM THEN BEGIN TO WARM AS WAA
MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG WINDS FROM THE DAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY RECORDS.

A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
THE AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ALSO PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A MAXIMUM OF 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW THAT WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS IT IS ALSO FLATTENED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DIRTY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TAFS WILL BE CEILING HEIGHT FOR THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT UNTIL CLOSE TO 0Z
FOR BOTH SITES. HOWEVER KMCK HAS HAD VFR CEILINGS FOR OVER AN HOUR
WITH VFR CEILINGS REPORTED UPSTREAM WHERE THE SNOWFALL HAS
STOPPED. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE VFR CEILINGS GOING DESPITE MODEL
DATA. KGLD IS A BIT MORE TRICKY FOR THE MORNING DUE TO SOME MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A FEW HOURS WHEN CEILINGS MAY RISE TO VFR
BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN AGAIN. ONE MODEL DID SHOW A GRADUAL RISE IN
CEILING HEIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...SO
HAVE THIS TREND IN TAF. AFTER 0Z CEILINGS WILL BE GONE AND WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011017
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
317 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  BEHIND THE FRONT SNOW
HAD ENDED OR WAS COMING TO AN END AND NORTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO
ALMOST 40 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MORE AS THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE TODAY.

THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL HIT BOTTOM THEN BEGIN TO WARM AS WAA
MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG WINDS FROM THE DAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY RECORDS.


A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
THE AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ALSO PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A MAXIMUM OF 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW THAT WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS IT IS ALSO FLATTENED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DIRTY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...MVFR/IFR MIX AS CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM
OVC005-015 WITH VISIBILITY RANGING 2-6SM IN SN/BLOWING SNOW AS
FRONT TRAVERSES REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR WITH -SHSN AND
OVC015-025. BY 18Z SUN...VFR WITH BKN050 BECM FEW050. WINDS
NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z THEN NW AROUND 10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011017
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
317 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  BEHIND THE FRONT SNOW
HAD ENDED OR WAS COMING TO AN END AND NORTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO
ALMOST 40 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MORE AS THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE TODAY.

THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL HIT BOTTOM THEN BEGIN TO WARM AS WAA
MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG WINDS FROM THE DAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY RECORDS.


A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
THE AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ALSO PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A MAXIMUM OF 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW THAT WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS IT IS ALSO FLATTENED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DIRTY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...MVFR/IFR MIX AS CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM
OVC005-015 WITH VISIBILITY RANGING 2-6SM IN SN/BLOWING SNOW AS
FRONT TRAVERSES REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR WITH -SHSN AND
OVC015-025. BY 18Z SUN...VFR WITH BKN050 BECM FEW050. WINDS
NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z THEN NW AROUND 10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010528
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF -RW IN ALL AREAS...KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS FROPA STARTING TO
OCCUR. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK FOR WINDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...MVFR/IFR MIX AS CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM
OVC005-015 WITH VISIBILITY RANGING 2-6SM IN SN/BLOWING SNOW AS
FRONT TRAVERSES REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR WITH -SHSN AND
OVC015-025. BY 18Z SUN...VFR WITH BKN050 BECM FEW050. WINDS
NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z THEN NW AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010528
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF -RW IN ALL AREAS...KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS FROPA STARTING TO
OCCUR. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK FOR WINDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...MVFR/IFR MIX AS CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM
OVC005-015 WITH VISIBILITY RANGING 2-6SM IN SN/BLOWING SNOW AS
FRONT TRAVERSES REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR WITH -SHSN AND
OVC015-025. BY 18Z SUN...VFR WITH BKN050 BECM FEW050. WINDS
NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z THEN NW AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
705 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION THRU
THE AREA BASED ON LATEST OBS/RADAR TRENDS. MANY LOCALES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RW/SW MIX FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...WHEREAS NORTH/WEST ZONES SEEING TEMPS FLOATING NEAR
32F AND WILL ONLY KEEP ANY REMAINING -RW IN FOR ANOTHER HR OR SO
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF AREA WITH TEMPS 30F OR LOWER. STILL
KEEPING MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES AS NIGHT
PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z...A MIX OF MVFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS OVC003-008 AND VSBY IN -SN 1-4SM AT TIMES. AFTER
06Z...-SN/BLSN AS FRONT TRAVERSES AREA AND GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE. BOTH SITES WILL SEE A IFR TO VFR MIX FROM 06Z ONWARD
WITH CEILINGS OVC004 THRU 12Z...THEN OVC025-050. VSBY 1-3SM IN
SN/BLSN...OTHERWISE P6SM. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KTS THRU
06Z...THEN 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
705 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION THRU
THE AREA BASED ON LATEST OBS/RADAR TRENDS. MANY LOCALES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RW/SW MIX FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...WHEREAS NORTH/WEST ZONES SEEING TEMPS FLOATING NEAR
32F AND WILL ONLY KEEP ANY REMAINING -RW IN FOR ANOTHER HR OR SO
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF AREA WITH TEMPS 30F OR LOWER. STILL
KEEPING MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES AS NIGHT
PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z...A MIX OF MVFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS OVC003-008 AND VSBY IN -SN 1-4SM AT TIMES. AFTER
06Z...-SN/BLSN AS FRONT TRAVERSES AREA AND GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE. BOTH SITES WILL SEE A IFR TO VFR MIX FROM 06Z ONWARD
WITH CEILINGS OVC004 THRU 12Z...THEN OVC025-050. VSBY 1-3SM IN
SN/BLSN...OTHERWISE P6SM. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KTS THRU
06Z...THEN 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
705 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION THRU
THE AREA BASED ON LATEST OBS/RADAR TRENDS. MANY LOCALES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RW/SW MIX FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...WHEREAS NORTH/WEST ZONES SEEING TEMPS FLOATING NEAR
32F AND WILL ONLY KEEP ANY REMAINING -RW IN FOR ANOTHER HR OR SO
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF AREA WITH TEMPS 30F OR LOWER. STILL
KEEPING MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES AS NIGHT
PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z...A MIX OF MVFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS OVC003-008 AND VSBY IN -SN 1-4SM AT TIMES. AFTER
06Z...-SN/BLSN AS FRONT TRAVERSES AREA AND GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE. BOTH SITES WILL SEE A IFR TO VFR MIX FROM 06Z ONWARD
WITH CEILINGS OVC004 THRU 12Z...THEN OVC025-050. VSBY 1-3SM IN
SN/BLSN...OTHERWISE P6SM. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KTS THRU
06Z...THEN 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
705 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION THRU
THE AREA BASED ON LATEST OBS/RADAR TRENDS. MANY LOCALES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RW/SW MIX FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...WHEREAS NORTH/WEST ZONES SEEING TEMPS FLOATING NEAR
32F AND WILL ONLY KEEP ANY REMAINING -RW IN FOR ANOTHER HR OR SO
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF AREA WITH TEMPS 30F OR LOWER. STILL
KEEPING MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES AS NIGHT
PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z...A MIX OF MVFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS OVC003-008 AND VSBY IN -SN 1-4SM AT TIMES. AFTER
06Z...-SN/BLSN AS FRONT TRAVERSES AREA AND GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE. BOTH SITES WILL SEE A IFR TO VFR MIX FROM 06Z ONWARD
WITH CEILINGS OVC004 THRU 12Z...THEN OVC025-050. VSBY 1-3SM IN
SN/BLSN...OTHERWISE P6SM. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KTS THRU
06Z...THEN 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312356
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z...A MIX OF MVFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS OVC003-008 AND VSBY IN -SN 1-4SM AT TIMES. AFTER
06Z...-SN/BLSN AS FRONT TRAVERSES AREA AND GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE. BOTH SITES WILL SEE A IFR TO VFR MIX FROM 06Z ONWARD
WITH CEILINGS OVC004 THRU 12Z...THEN OVC025-050. VSBY 1-3SM IN
SN/BLSN...OTHERWISE P6SM. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KTS THRU
06Z...THEN 15-30KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 312356
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z...A MIX OF MVFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS OVC003-008 AND VSBY IN -SN 1-4SM AT TIMES. AFTER
06Z...-SN/BLSN AS FRONT TRAVERSES AREA AND GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE. BOTH SITES WILL SEE A IFR TO VFR MIX FROM 06Z ONWARD
WITH CEILINGS OVC004 THRU 12Z...THEN OVC025-050. VSBY 1-3SM IN
SN/BLSN...OTHERWISE P6SM. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KTS THRU
06Z...THEN 15-30KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING PERSISTENT OVERCAST CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING FOG AND MIST
TO BOTH TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMCK...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER FOG SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF KGLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING PERSISTENT OVERCAST CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING FOG AND MIST
TO BOTH TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMCK...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER FOG SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF KGLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 312143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING PERSISTENT OVERCAST CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING FOG AND MIST
TO BOTH TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMCK...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER FOG SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF KGLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW
BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE
DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST
CONCERNS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT
FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS
WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST
BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL
QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR
AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE
CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING PERSISTENT OVERCAST CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING FOG AND MIST
TO BOTH TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMCK...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER FOG SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF KGLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 312118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING PERSISTENT OVERCAST CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING FOG AND MIST
TO BOTH TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMCK...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER FOG SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF KGLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83.  THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER
LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING PERSISTENT OVERCAST CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING FOG AND MIST
TO BOTH TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMCK...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER FOG SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF KGLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG BASED ON LATEST OBS.
FOG SHOULD LIFT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER
BOTH COASTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.  A LARGE EXPANSE OF
CLOUDS WAS SEEN OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TODAY EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION FROM LAST NIGHT WAS
TIED TO CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB WHERE WEAK
LIFT WAS OCCURRING...SO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY.  SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING A 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LIFT INCREASES AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.  IN ADDITION THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET
STREAK MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS.  AS A RESULT HAVE PRECIP.
CHANCES INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
EVENING...WHICH AGAIN LINES UP WITH VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND FAIRLY WEAK LIFT.  OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE WEAK LIFT DECLINES BRINGING THE
SNOW TO AN END.  ANTICIPATE THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE PHASE CHANGE
OCCURS.  TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE UP TO AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING PERSISTENT OVERCAST CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING FOG AND MIST
TO BOTH TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMCK...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER FOG SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF KGLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ001.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090-091.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG BASED ON LATEST OBS.
FOG SHOULD LIFT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER
BOTH COASTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.  A LARGE EXPANSE OF
CLOUDS WAS SEEN OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TODAY EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION FROM LAST NIGHT WAS
TIED TO CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB WHERE WEAK
LIFT WAS OCCURRING...SO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY.  SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING A 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LIFT INCREASES AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.  IN ADDITION THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET
STREAK MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS.  AS A RESULT HAVE PRECIP.
CHANCES INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
EVENING...WHICH AGAIN LINES UP WITH VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND FAIRLY WEAK LIFT.  OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE WEAK LIFT DECLINES BRINGING THE
SNOW TO AN END.  ANTICIPATE THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE PHASE CHANGE
OCCURS.  TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE UP TO AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING PERSISTENT OVERCAST CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING FOG AND MIST
TO BOTH TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMCK...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER FOG SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF KGLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ001.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090-091.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311302
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG BASED ON LATEST OBS.
FOG SHOULD LIFT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER
BOTH COASTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.  A LARGE EXPANSE OF
CLOUDS WAS SEEN OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TODAY EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION FROM LAST NIGHT WAS
TIED TO CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB WHERE WEAK
LIFT WAS OCCURRING...SO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY.  SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING A 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LIFT INCREASES AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.  IN ADDITION THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET
STREAK MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS.  AS A RESULT HAVE PRECIP.
CHANCES INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
EVENING...WHICH AGAIN LINES UP WITH VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND FAIRLY WEAK LIFT.  OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE WEAK LIFT DECLINES BRINGING THE
SNOW TO AN END.  ANTICIPATE THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE PHASE CHANGE
OCCURS.  TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE UP TO AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH. THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING VERY SMALL
AMOUNTS OF RAIN/SNOW SO NO IMPACT FROM THE PRECIPITATION.  CEILINGS
THEN FALL BACK TO IFR DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311302
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG BASED ON LATEST OBS.
FOG SHOULD LIFT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER
BOTH COASTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.  A LARGE EXPANSE OF
CLOUDS WAS SEEN OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TODAY EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION FROM LAST NIGHT WAS
TIED TO CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB WHERE WEAK
LIFT WAS OCCURRING...SO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY.  SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING A 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LIFT INCREASES AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.  IN ADDITION THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET
STREAK MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS.  AS A RESULT HAVE PRECIP.
CHANCES INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
EVENING...WHICH AGAIN LINES UP WITH VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND FAIRLY WEAK LIFT.  OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE WEAK LIFT DECLINES BRINGING THE
SNOW TO AN END.  ANTICIPATE THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE PHASE CHANGE
OCCURS.  TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE UP TO AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH. THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING VERY SMALL
AMOUNTS OF RAIN/SNOW SO NO IMPACT FROM THE PRECIPITATION.  CEILINGS
THEN FALL BACK TO IFR DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311116
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER
BOTH COASTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.  A LARGE EXPANSE OF
CLOUDS WAS SEEN OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TODAY EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION FROM LAST NIGHT WAS
TIED TO CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB WHERE WEAK
LIFT WAS OCCURRING...SO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY.  SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING A 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LIFT INCREASES AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.  IN ADDITION THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET
STREAK MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS.  AS A RESULT HAVE PRECIP.
CHANCES INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
EVENING...WHICH AGAIN LINES UP WITH VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND FAIRLY WEAK LIFT.  OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE WEAK LIFT DECLINES BRINGING THE
SNOW TO AN END.  ANTICIPATE THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE PHASE CHANGE
OCCURS.  TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE UP TO AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH. THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING VERY SMALL
AMOUNTS OF RAIN/SNOW SO NO IMPACT FROM THE PRECIPITATION.  CEILINGS
THEN FALL BACK TO IFR DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311116
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER
BOTH COASTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.  A LARGE EXPANSE OF
CLOUDS WAS SEEN OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TODAY EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION FROM LAST NIGHT WAS
TIED TO CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB WHERE WEAK
LIFT WAS OCCURRING...SO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY.  SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING A 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LIFT INCREASES AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.  IN ADDITION THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET
STREAK MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS.  AS A RESULT HAVE PRECIP.
CHANCES INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
EVENING...WHICH AGAIN LINES UP WITH VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND FAIRLY WEAK LIFT.  OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE WEAK LIFT DECLINES BRINGING THE
SNOW TO AN END.  ANTICIPATE THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE PHASE CHANGE
OCCURS.  TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE UP TO AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH. THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING VERY SMALL
AMOUNTS OF RAIN/SNOW SO NO IMPACT FROM THE PRECIPITATION.  CEILINGS
THEN FALL BACK TO IFR DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310952
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER
BOTH COASTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.  A LARGE EXPANSE OF
CLOUDS WAS SEEN OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TODAY EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION FROM LAST NIGHT WAS
TIED TO CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB WHERE WEAK
LIFT WAS OCCURRING...SO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY.  SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING A 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LIFT INCREASES AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.  IN ADDITION THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET
STREAK MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS.  AS A RESULT HAVE PRECIP.
CHANCES INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
EVENING...WHICH AGAIN LINES UP WITH VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND FAIRLY WEAK LIFT.  OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE WEAK LIFT DECLINES BRINGING THE
SNOW TO AN END.  ANTICIPATE THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE PHASE CHANGE
OCCURS.  TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE UP TO AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.



ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS
IMPULSES EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO MVFR BUT THEN POSSIBLY RETURN TO IFR SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310540
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 35
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALOFT...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WERE
EJECTING/STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH/LOW. ACCORDING TO
LATEST RADAR DATA...PRECIP ECHOES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN COLBY KANSAS
AND MCCOOK NEBRASKA BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SPREAD NORTH THIS EVENING. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET
ANOTHER FACTOR AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THEREFORE...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS PLAYING AGAINST EACH OTHER.
FEEL THAT WE SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO CHANGE TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10:1 OR SO DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOG. WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN
AND MOISTURE POOLING ON THE NORTH/EAST EDGES AND LIGHT WINDS...
VISIBILITIES COULD EASILY DROP. SOME GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN
FORECASTING DENSE FOG BUT DECIDED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AS THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR TOMORROW...PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE
AND MOISTURE SOURCE PASSES EAST. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION. BASED ON TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDING PROFILES...
CURRENT ANTICIPATION IS PRECIP TYPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITION
TIME FOR SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF CAA IN
CORRELATION WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM LIGHT RAIN TO
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ESE
FLOW(WITH APPROACHING RIDGE) THAT WILL BE REPLACING THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE...WILL CREATE SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT
WILL CREATE SOME MORNING FLURRIES. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER REGION...DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THIS WILL LAST
GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY BEFORE MODELS SHIFT SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA AFTER
FROPA. A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEFORE DRYING OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...A WIDE RANGE OF NUMBERS FOR BOTH HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF EACH ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. A DOWNTREND IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A
WARMUP MON/TUESDAY WITH STRONG WAA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RIDGE TO
THE EAST. WEDNESDAY HAS NEXT SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ONCE AGAIN...THUS OPENING
UP THE CWA TO WARM AIR INTRUSION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F FOR SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...UP TO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 60S FOR REST OF TIMEFRAME...WARMEST MON/TUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN RANGE OF TEENS TO M/U20S. EACH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GRADIENT
TIGHT BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS
IMPULSES EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO MVFR BUT THEN POSSIBLY RETURN TO IFR SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310540
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 35
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALOFT...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WERE
EJECTING/STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH/LOW. ACCORDING TO
LATEST RADAR DATA...PRECIP ECHOES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN COLBY KANSAS
AND MCCOOK NEBRASKA BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SPREAD NORTH THIS EVENING. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET
ANOTHER FACTOR AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THEREFORE...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS PLAYING AGAINST EACH OTHER.
FEEL THAT WE SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO CHANGE TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10:1 OR SO DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOG. WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN
AND MOISTURE POOLING ON THE NORTH/EAST EDGES AND LIGHT WINDS...
VISIBILITIES COULD EASILY DROP. SOME GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN
FORECASTING DENSE FOG BUT DECIDED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AS THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR TOMORROW...PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE
AND MOISTURE SOURCE PASSES EAST. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION. BASED ON TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDING PROFILES...
CURRENT ANTICIPATION IS PRECIP TYPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITION
TIME FOR SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF CAA IN
CORRELATION WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM LIGHT RAIN TO
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ESE
FLOW(WITH APPROACHING RIDGE) THAT WILL BE REPLACING THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE...WILL CREATE SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT
WILL CREATE SOME MORNING FLURRIES. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER REGION...DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THIS WILL LAST
GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY BEFORE MODELS SHIFT SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA AFTER
FROPA. A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEFORE DRYING OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...A WIDE RANGE OF NUMBERS FOR BOTH HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF EACH ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. A DOWNTREND IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A
WARMUP MON/TUESDAY WITH STRONG WAA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RIDGE TO
THE EAST. WEDNESDAY HAS NEXT SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ONCE AGAIN...THUS OPENING
UP THE CWA TO WARM AIR INTRUSION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F FOR SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...UP TO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 60S FOR REST OF TIMEFRAME...WARMEST MON/TUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN RANGE OF TEENS TO M/U20S. EACH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GRADIENT
TIGHT BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS
IMPULSES EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO MVFR BUT THEN POSSIBLY RETURN TO IFR SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 302310
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
410 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 35
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALOFT...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WERE
EJECTING/STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH/LOW. ACCORDING TO
LATEST RADAR DATA...PRECIP ECHOES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN COLBY KANSAS
AND MCCOOK NEBRASKA BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SPREAD NORTH THIS EVENING. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET
ANOTHER FACTOR AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THEREFORE...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS PLAYING AGAINST EACH OTHER.
FEEL THAT WE SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO CHANGE TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10:1 OR SO DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOG. WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN
AND MOISTURE POOLING ON THE NORTH/EAST EDGES AND LIGHT WINDS...
VISIBILITIES COULD EASILY DROP. SOME GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN
FORECASTING DENSE FOG BUT DECIDED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AS THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR TOMORROW...PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE
AND MOISTURE SOURCE PASSES EAST. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION. BASED ON TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDING PROFILES...
CURRENT ANTICIPATION IS PRECIP TYPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITION
TIME FOR SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF CAA IN
CORRELATION WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM LIGHT RAIN TO
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ESE
FLOW(WITH APPROACHING RIDGE) THAT WILL BE REPLACING THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE...WILL CREATE SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT
WILL CREATE SOME MORNING FLURRIES. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER REGION...DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THIS WILL LAST
GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY BEFORE MODELS SHIFT SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA AFTER
FROPA. A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEFORE DRYING OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...A WIDE RANGE OF NUMBERS FOR BOTH HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF EACH ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. A DOWNTREND IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A
WARMUP MON/TUESDAY WITH STRONG WAA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RIDGE TO
THE EAST. WEDNESDAY HAS NEXT SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ONCE AGAIN...THUS OPENING
UP THE CWA TO WARM AIR INTRUSION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F FOR SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...UP TO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 60S FOR REST OF TIMEFRAME...WARMEST MON/TUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN RANGE OF TEENS TO M/U20S. EACH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GRADIENT
TIGHT BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KGLD AND KMCK WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THIS
LOW WILL BRING PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. FOG WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH THESE ELEMENTS
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 302128
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 35
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALOFT...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WERE
EJECTING/STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH/LOW. ACCORDING TO
LATEST RADAR DATA...PRECIP ECHOES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN COLBY KANSAS
AND MCCOOK NEBRASKA BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SPREAD NORTH THIS EVENING. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET
ANOTHER FACTOR AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THEREFORE...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS PLAYING AGAINST EACH OTHER.
FEEL THAT WE SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO CHANGE TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10:1 OR SO DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOG. WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN
AND MOISTURE POOLING ON THE NORTH/EAST EDGES AND LIGHT WINDS...
VISIBILITIES COULD EASILY DROP. SOME GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN
FORECASTING DENSE FOG BUT DECIDED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AS THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR TOMORROW...PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE
AND MOISTURE SOURCE PASSES EAST. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION. BASED ON TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDING PROFILES...
CURRENT ANTICIPATION IS PRECIP TYPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITION
TIME FOR SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF CAA IN
CORRELATION WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM LIGHT RAIN TO
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ESE
FLOW(WITH APPROACHING RIDGE) THAT WILL BE REPLACING THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE...WILL CREATE SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT
WILL CREATE SOME MORNING FLURRIES. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER REGION...DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THIS WILL LAST
GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY BEFORE MODELS SHIFT SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA AFTER
FROPA. A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEFORE DRYING OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...A WIDE RANGE OF NUMBERS FOR BOTH HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF EACH ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. A DOWNTREND IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A
WARMUP MON/TUESDAY WITH STRONG WAA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RIDGE TO
THE EAST. WEDNESDAY HAS NEXT SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ONCE AGAIN...THUS OPENING
UP THE CWA TO WARM AIR INTRUSION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F FOR SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...UP TO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 60S FOR REST OF TIMEFRAME...WARMEST MON/TUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN RANGE OF TEENS TO M/U20S. EACH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GRADIENT
TIGHT BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 302128
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 35
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALOFT...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WERE
EJECTING/STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH/LOW. ACCORDING TO
LATEST RADAR DATA...PRECIP ECHOES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN COLBY KANSAS
AND MCCOOK NEBRASKA BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SPREAD NORTH THIS EVENING. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET
ANOTHER FACTOR AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THEREFORE...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS PLAYING AGAINST EACH OTHER.
FEEL THAT WE SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO CHANGE TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10:1 OR SO DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOG. WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN
AND MOISTURE POOLING ON THE NORTH/EAST EDGES AND LIGHT WINDS...
VISIBILITIES COULD EASILY DROP. SOME GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN
FORECASTING DENSE FOG BUT DECIDED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AS THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR TOMORROW...PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE
AND MOISTURE SOURCE PASSES EAST. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION. BASED ON TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDING PROFILES...
CURRENT ANTICIPATION IS PRECIP TYPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITION
TIME FOR SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF CAA IN
CORRELATION WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM LIGHT RAIN TO
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ESE
FLOW(WITH APPROACHING RIDGE) THAT WILL BE REPLACING THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE...WILL CREATE SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT
WILL CREATE SOME MORNING FLURRIES. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER REGION...DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THIS WILL LAST
GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY BEFORE MODELS SHIFT SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA AFTER
FROPA. A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEFORE DRYING OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...A WIDE RANGE OF NUMBERS FOR BOTH HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF EACH ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. A DOWNTREND IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A
WARMUP MON/TUESDAY WITH STRONG WAA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RIDGE TO
THE EAST. WEDNESDAY HAS NEXT SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ONCE AGAIN...THUS OPENING
UP THE CWA TO WARM AIR INTRUSION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F FOR SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...UP TO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 60S FOR REST OF TIMEFRAME...WARMEST MON/TUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN RANGE OF TEENS TO M/U20S. EACH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GRADIENT
TIGHT BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301737
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...AMENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE QPF/SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST.

OVERALL...BOUNTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. DELAYED
BEGINNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH
THICK CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DO NOT FEEL WE WILL
WARM AS MUCH TODAY. LEANED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE
WHICH RESULTED IN A NEAR NAM/ECMWF BLEND. LEANED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MIN TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD BE EXTREMELY SLOW
TO COOL UNDER DENSE CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN THE
END...THESE WARMER TEMPS FORECAST LOWERED ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE PRESENT IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS IS SEEN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE CHANCE FOR SNOW/RAIN.
NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE TWO BEST OPPORTUNITIES
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF A
GOVE/HOXIE/NORTON LINE.  THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST...DEEPENING THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN THE 700-
500MB LAYER...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES OF 2-4K/KM IN THE LAYER.  HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS SATURATED TO
WITHIN 2.5K FT. OF THE GROUND AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
AROUND 3 MB...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP. CHANCES TIED TO THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE LIFT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INTENSIFIES...KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES
EAST OF THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS.  SINCE THIS LIFT IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SATURDAY THE WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH 700-
500MB LIFT REACHING A PEAK ALONG IT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB.  AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT.  WILL HAVE THE PRECIP. CHANCES ALSO PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THEN DECLINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY.

A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY.  COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING TOWARDS TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WEAKEN AS
SURFACE LOW ENCROACHES...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 09Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION ABOUT THE TIME OF THE LOW PASSAGE...FEEL
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/DRIZZLE AT TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING
IN ADDITION TO LOW CEILINGS. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL
FOR WORSE CONDITIONS BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED IN LATER RUNS
AS THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301737
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...AMENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE QPF/SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST.

OVERALL...BOUNTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. DELAYED
BEGINNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH
THICK CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DO NOT FEEL WE WILL
WARM AS MUCH TODAY. LEANED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE
WHICH RESULTED IN A NEAR NAM/ECMWF BLEND. LEANED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MIN TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD BE EXTREMELY SLOW
TO COOL UNDER DENSE CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN THE
END...THESE WARMER TEMPS FORECAST LOWERED ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE PRESENT IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS IS SEEN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE CHANCE FOR SNOW/RAIN.
NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE TWO BEST OPPORTUNITIES
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF A
GOVE/HOXIE/NORTON LINE.  THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST...DEEPENING THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN THE 700-
500MB LAYER...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES OF 2-4K/KM IN THE LAYER.  HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS SATURATED TO
WITHIN 2.5K FT. OF THE GROUND AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
AROUND 3 MB...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP. CHANCES TIED TO THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE LIFT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INTENSIFIES...KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES
EAST OF THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS.  SINCE THIS LIFT IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SATURDAY THE WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH 700-
500MB LIFT REACHING A PEAK ALONG IT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB.  AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT.  WILL HAVE THE PRECIP. CHANCES ALSO PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THEN DECLINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY.

A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY.  COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING TOWARDS TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WEAKEN AS
SURFACE LOW ENCROACHES...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 09Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION ABOUT THE TIME OF THE LOW PASSAGE...FEEL
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/DRIZZLE AT TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING
IN ADDITION TO LOW CEILINGS. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL
FOR WORSE CONDITIONS BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED IN LATER RUNS
AS THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301557
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
857 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...AMENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE QPF/SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST.

OVERALL...BOUNTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. DELAYED
BEGINNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH
THICK CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DO NOT FEEL WE WILL
WARM AS MUCH TODAY. LEANED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE
WHICH RESULTED IN A NEAR NAM/ECMWF BLEND. LEANED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MIN TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD BE EXTREMELY SLOW
TO COOL UNDER DENSE CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN THE
END...THESE WARMER TEMPS FORECAST LOWERED ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE PRESENT IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS IS SEEN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE CHANCE FOR SNOW/RAIN.
NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE TWO BEST OPPORTUNITIES
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF A
GOVE/HOXIE/NORTON LINE.  THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST...DEEPENING THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN THE 700-
500MB LAYER...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES OF 2-4K/KM IN THE LAYER.  HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS SATURATED TO
WITHIN 2.5K FT. OF THE GROUND AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
AROUND 3 MB...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP. CHANCES TIED TO THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE LIFT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INTENSIFIES...KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES
EAST OF THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS.  SINCE THIS LIFT IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SATURDAY THE WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH 700-
500MB LIFT REACHING A PEAK ALONG IT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB.  AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT.  WILL HAVE THE PRECIP. CHANCES ALSO PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THEN DECLINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY.

A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY.  COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301557
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
857 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...AMENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE QPF/SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST.

OVERALL...BOUNTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. DELAYED
BEGINNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH
THICK CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DO NOT FEEL WE WILL
WARM AS MUCH TODAY. LEANED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE
WHICH RESULTED IN A NEAR NAM/ECMWF BLEND. LEANED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MIN TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD BE EXTREMELY SLOW
TO COOL UNDER DENSE CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN THE
END...THESE WARMER TEMPS FORECAST LOWERED ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE PRESENT IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS IS SEEN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE CHANCE FOR SNOW/RAIN.
NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE TWO BEST OPPORTUNITIES
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF A
GOVE/HOXIE/NORTON LINE.  THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST...DEEPENING THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN THE 700-
500MB LAYER...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES OF 2-4K/KM IN THE LAYER.  HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS SATURATED TO
WITHIN 2.5K FT. OF THE GROUND AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
AROUND 3 MB...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP. CHANCES TIED TO THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE LIFT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INTENSIFIES...KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES
EAST OF THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS.  SINCE THIS LIFT IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SATURDAY THE WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH 700-
500MB LIFT REACHING A PEAK ALONG IT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB.  AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT.  WILL HAVE THE PRECIP. CHANCES ALSO PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THEN DECLINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY.

A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY.  COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
439 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE PRESENT IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS IS SEEN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE CHANCE FOR SNOW/RAIN.
NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE TWO BEST OPPORTUNITIES
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF A
GOVE/HOXIE/NORTON LINE.  THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST...DEEPENING THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN THE 700-
500MB LAYER...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES OF 2-4K/KM IN THE LAYER.  HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS SATURATED TO
WITHIN 2.5K FT. OF THE GROUND AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
AROUND 3 MB...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP. CHANCES TIED TO THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE LIFT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INTENSIFIES...KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES
EAST OF THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS.  SINCE THIS LIFT IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SATURDAY THE WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH 700-
500MB LIFT REACHING A PEAK ALONG IT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB.  AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT.  WILL HAVE THE PRECIP. CHANCES ALSO PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THEN DECLINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY.

A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY.  COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...REACHING A PEAK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECLINE DURING THE EVENING. MEANWHILE
CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR EITHER TAF SITE. HOWEVER AM
THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN/SNOW WILL BE EAST OF BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
439 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE PRESENT IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS IS SEEN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE CHANCE FOR SNOW/RAIN.
NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE TWO BEST OPPORTUNITIES
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF A
GOVE/HOXIE/NORTON LINE.  THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST...DEEPENING THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN THE 700-
500MB LAYER...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES OF 2-4K/KM IN THE LAYER.  HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS SATURATED TO
WITHIN 2.5K FT. OF THE GROUND AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
AROUND 3 MB...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP. CHANCES TIED TO THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE LIFT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INTENSIFIES...KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES
EAST OF THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS.  SINCE THIS LIFT IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SATURDAY THE WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH 700-
500MB LIFT REACHING A PEAK ALONG IT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB.  AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT.  WILL HAVE THE PRECIP. CHANCES ALSO PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THEN DECLINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY.

A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY.  COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...REACHING A PEAK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECLINE DURING THE EVENING. MEANWHILE
CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR EITHER TAF SITE. HOWEVER AM
THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN/SNOW WILL BE EAST OF BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301009
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
309 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE PRESENT IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS IS SEEN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE CHANCE FOR SNOW/RAIN.
NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE TWO BEST OPPORTUNITIES
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF A
GOVE/HOXIE/NORTON LINE.  THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST...DEEPENING THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN THE 700-
500MB LAYER...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES OF 2-4K/KM IN THE LAYER.  HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS SATURATED TO
WITHIN 2.5K FT. OF THE GROUND AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
AROUND 3 MB...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP. CHANCES TIED TO THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE LIFT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INTENSIFIES...KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES
EAST OF THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS.  SINCE THIS LIFT IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SATURDAY THE WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH 700-
500MB LIFT REACHING A PEAK ALONG IT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB.  AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT.  WILL HAVE THE PRECIP. CHANCES ALSO PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THEN DECLINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.



NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY.

A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY.  COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301009
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
309 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE PRESENT IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS IS SEEN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE CHANCE FOR SNOW/RAIN.
NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE TWO BEST OPPORTUNITIES
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF A
GOVE/HOXIE/NORTON LINE.  THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST...DEEPENING THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN THE 700-
500MB LAYER...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES OF 2-4K/KM IN THE LAYER.  HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS SATURATED TO
WITHIN 2.5K FT. OF THE GROUND AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
AROUND 3 MB...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP. CHANCES TIED TO THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE LIFT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INTENSIFIES...KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES
EAST OF THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS.  SINCE THIS LIFT IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SATURDAY THE WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH 700-
500MB LIFT REACHING A PEAK ALONG IT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB.  AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT.  WILL HAVE THE PRECIP. CHANCES ALSO PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THEN DECLINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.



NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY.

A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY.  COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WINDS ARE FROM
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH MEASURED
EARLIER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DRIFTING EAST. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...HEADING EAST AND ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE BAJA PENINSULA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...DRY WEATHER SHALL
CONTINUE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
RETURN AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGH. MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITED SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION UNTIL WE NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION.
NORTH WINDS WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER. THEN...AS
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND STRENGTHEN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE PACIFIC TROUGH ENCROACHES AND WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. THE QUESTION FOR THE
FORECAST IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL OBSERVE PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELT WE SHOULD SATURATE THE COLUMN OVER
WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...VIRGA AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL EVENING. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
IS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST SAT-SUN AS A WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHUNTS IT SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS IT STANDS NOW...A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. BEST PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. AREA-WIDE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FRIDAY NIGHT...AROUND 30 DEGREES...DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER.
THEN COLD AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 32 ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN
AIRMASS DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SEVERAL BRIEF ATTEMPTS AT MODERATING
TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS DOMINATES AGAIN FOR THE
MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WINDS ARE FROM
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH MEASURED
EARLIER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DRIFTING EAST. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...HEADING EAST AND ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE BAJA PENINSULA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...DRY WEATHER SHALL
CONTINUE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
RETURN AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGH. MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITED SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION UNTIL WE NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION.
NORTH WINDS WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER. THEN...AS
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND STRENGTHEN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE PACIFIC TROUGH ENCROACHES AND WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. THE QUESTION FOR THE
FORECAST IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL OBSERVE PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELT WE SHOULD SATURATE THE COLUMN OVER
WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...VIRGA AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL EVENING. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
IS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST SAT-SUN AS A WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHUNTS IT SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS IT STANDS NOW...A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. BEST PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. AREA-WIDE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FRIDAY NIGHT...AROUND 30 DEGREES...DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER.
THEN COLD AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 32 ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN
AIRMASS DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SEVERAL BRIEF ATTEMPTS AT MODERATING
TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS DOMINATES AGAIN FOR THE
MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON 3000 FT CLOUD DECK MAY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE
KGLD TERMINAL...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING SEEMS TO FAVOR THIS ARRIVING
AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD IF IT OCCURS. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN THE 09-12Z TIME PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS AS SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM IN THE SW US. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIOD FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292203
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WINDS ARE FROM
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH MEASURED
EARLIER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DRIFTING EAST. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...HEADING EAST AND ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE BAJA PENINSULA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...DRY WEATHER SHALL
CONTINUE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
RETURN AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGH. MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITED SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION UNTIL WE NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION.
NORTH WINDS WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER. THEN...AS
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND STRENGTHEN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE PACIFIC TROUGH ENCROACHES AND WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. THE QUESTION FOR THE
FORECAST IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL OBSERVE PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELT WE SHOULD SATURATE THE COLUMN OVER
WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...VIRGA AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL EVENING. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
IS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST SAT-SUN AS A WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHUNTS IT SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS IT STANDS NOW...A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. BEST PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. AREA-WIDE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FRIDAY NIGHT...AROUND 30 DEGREES...DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER.
THEN COLD AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 32 ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN
AIRMASS DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SEVERAL BRIEF ATTEMPTS AT MODERATING
TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS DOMINATES AGAIN FOR THE
MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN. ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SO DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP MENTION WITH THIS TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292203
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WINDS ARE FROM
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH MEASURED
EARLIER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DRIFTING EAST. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...HEADING EAST AND ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE BAJA PENINSULA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...DRY WEATHER SHALL
CONTINUE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
RETURN AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGH. MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITED SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION UNTIL WE NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION.
NORTH WINDS WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER. THEN...AS
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND STRENGTHEN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE PACIFIC TROUGH ENCROACHES AND WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. THE QUESTION FOR THE
FORECAST IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL OBSERVE PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELT WE SHOULD SATURATE THE COLUMN OVER
WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...VIRGA AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL EVENING. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
IS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST SAT-SUN AS A WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHUNTS IT SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS IT STANDS NOW...A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. BEST PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. AREA-WIDE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FRIDAY NIGHT...AROUND 30 DEGREES...DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER.
THEN COLD AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 32 ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN
AIRMASS DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SEVERAL BRIEF ATTEMPTS AT MODERATING
TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS DOMINATES AGAIN FOR THE
MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN. ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SO DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP MENTION WITH THIS TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...RRH




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