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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY PRODUCING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO/SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING)
WILL EMERGE OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS AROUND
18Z THEN EAST INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK
WARRANTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE AREA WHERE THEY`RE AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15-20KTS THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA LOOKS GOOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON WHERE DRYLINE SETS UP. WILL
AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND DOWNWARD MOTION MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS THINKING THE MORNING
HOURS APPEAR TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE AREA. WITH BREEZY/NEAR BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INSTABILITY IS LESS THEN PRIOR DAYS
AND SEVERE THREAT MUCH LOWER IF AT ALL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOW 50S EAST.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS STABLE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AS SFC SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

KGLD...LIFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 15Z IMPROVING
TO IFR FROM 16Z-17Z THEN MVFR 18Z-19Z WITH WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 19Z-22Z MAY SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH BETTER CHANCES FROM 23Z-03Z
OR 04Z AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DRYLINE FEATURE.
ANY STORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL HAVE THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AROUND
05Z PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 11KTS EXPECTED AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS STRATUS AND IFR/VLIFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WONT LOWER CIGS TO
THESE CATEGORIES JUST YET BUT WILL HINT AT IT WITH THIS FORECAST.

KMCK...VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 14Z WITH IFR
CIGS 15Z-18Z THEN MVFR CIGS 19Z-21Z. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
10KTS OR LESS. 22Z-00Z CIGS BORDERLINE MVFR CATEGORY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12KTS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE 01Z-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE BEST CHANCE 02Z-05Z. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS. AFTER 07Z WINDS FROM
THE WEST/WEST NORTHWEST 10KTS OR LESS WITH VFR CIGS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280422
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280422
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280422
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280002
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280002
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 271740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 271706
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 271706
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOST RECENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH REMAINS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY
OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS WITH PWAT READINGS
APPROACHING 1.25" TO 1.50" BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 262346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOST RECENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH REMAINS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY
OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS WITH PWAT READINGS
APPROACHING 1.25" TO 1.50" BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261811
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1211 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEST...50-55
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THEN OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE BOLDEST...THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY SUPPORTING SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS FEATURE ALSO MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE LESS ROBUST IN QUICKLY WARMING COMPARED TO
THE GFS. BLENDING THE TWO PLUS BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN WYOMING BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRIDAY THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MY THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
PER 850-500MB RH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS MAY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261811
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1211 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEST...50-55
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THEN OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE BOLDEST...THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY SUPPORTING SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS FEATURE ALSO MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE LESS ROBUST IN QUICKLY WARMING COMPARED TO
THE GFS. BLENDING THE TWO PLUS BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN WYOMING BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRIDAY THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MY THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
PER 850-500MB RH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS MAY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEST...50-55
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THEN OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE BOLDEST...THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY SUPPORTING SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS FEATURE ALSO MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE LESS ROBUST IN QUICKLY WARMING COMPARED TO
THE GFS. BLENDING THE TWO PLUS BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN WYOMING BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRIDAY THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MY THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
PER 850-500MB RH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS MAY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND 21Z OR 22Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. AROUND 03Z SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 09Z AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME OTHERWISE SHOULD
BE DRY AS THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 17Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
22Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEST...50-55
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THEN OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE BOLDEST...THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY SUPPORTING SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS FEATURE ALSO MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE LESS ROBUST IN QUICKLY WARMING COMPARED TO
THE GFS. BLENDING THE TWO PLUS BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN WYOMING BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRIDAY THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MY THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
PER 850-500MB RH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS MAY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND 21Z OR 22Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. AROUND 03Z SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 09Z AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME OTHERWISE SHOULD
BE DRY AS THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 17Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
22Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEST...50-55
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THEN OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE BOLDEST...THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY SUPPORTING SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS FEATURE ALSO MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE LESS ROBUST IN QUICKLY WARMING COMPARED TO
THE GFS. BLENDING THE TWO PLUS BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN WYOMING BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRIDAY THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MY THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
PER 850-500MB RH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS MAY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND 21Z OR 22Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. AROUND 03Z SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 09Z AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME OTHERWISE SHOULD
BE DRY AS THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 17Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
22Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260830
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS STILL ANTICIPATED AT KMCK THIS MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS
DECK BUT FELT STRATUS MOST LIKELY STALLS BETWEEN KMCK AND KGLD.
THEREFORE...VFR FORECAST ISSUED FOR KGLD. STRATUS BURNS OFF BY
LATE MORNING. STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO...
ADVANCING EAST THROUGH EVENING. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE
VCSH/VCTS MENTION INTO FORECAST DUE TO ISOLATED STORM NATURE.
NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTH BY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260830
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS STILL ANTICIPATED AT KMCK THIS MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS
DECK BUT FELT STRATUS MOST LIKELY STALLS BETWEEN KMCK AND KGLD.
THEREFORE...VFR FORECAST ISSUED FOR KGLD. STRATUS BURNS OFF BY
LATE MORNING. STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO...
ADVANCING EAST THROUGH EVENING. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE
VCSH/VCTS MENTION INTO FORECAST DUE TO ISOLATED STORM NATURE.
NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTH BY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. PLAN TO RESTRICT POPS TO EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
FORCING IS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE ON TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SINCE LIFT IS NOT INDICATED
TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS NIL FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IS INDICATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CAPE AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO DECREASE
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND LEAVE CHANCE AND
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING, CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE INDICATED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT
EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE FA WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 60S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS STILL ANTICIPATED AT KMCK THIS MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS
DECK BUT FELT STRATUS MOST LIKELY STALLS BETWEEN KMCK AND KGLD.
THEREFORE...VFR FORECAST ISSUED FOR KGLD. STRATUS BURNS OFF BY
LATE MORNING. STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO...
ADVANCING EAST THROUGH EVENING. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE
VCSH/VCTS MENTION INTO FORECAST DUE TO ISOLATED STORM NATURE.
NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTH BY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252335
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. PLAN TO RESTRICT POPS TO EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
FORCING IS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE ON TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SINCE LIFT IS NOT INDICATED
TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS NIL FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IS INDICATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CAPE AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO DECREASE
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND LEAVE CHANCE AND
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING, CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE INDICATED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT
EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE FA WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 60S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KGLD THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD. AT KMCK...SOME MVFR STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING...LIFTING AND SCATTERING BY 15-16Z. LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES. ANTICIPATE SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN EARLIER AT KGLD BUT THIS
SHIFT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 252335
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. PLAN TO RESTRICT POPS TO EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
FORCING IS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE ON TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SINCE LIFT IS NOT INDICATED
TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS NIL FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IS INDICATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CAPE AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO DECREASE
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND LEAVE CHANCE AND
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING, CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE INDICATED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT
EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE FA WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 60S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KGLD THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD. AT KMCK...SOME MVFR STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING...LIFTING AND SCATTERING BY 15-16Z. LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES. ANTICIPATE SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN EARLIER AT KGLD BUT THIS
SHIFT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252335
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. PLAN TO RESTRICT POPS TO EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
FORCING IS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE ON TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SINCE LIFT IS NOT INDICATED
TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS NIL FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IS INDICATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CAPE AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO DECREASE
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND LEAVE CHANCE AND
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING, CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE INDICATED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT
EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE FA WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 60S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KGLD THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD. AT KMCK...SOME MVFR STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING...LIFTING AND SCATTERING BY 15-16Z. LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES. ANTICIPATE SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN EARLIER AT KGLD BUT THIS
SHIFT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252335
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. PLAN TO RESTRICT POPS TO EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
FORCING IS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE ON TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SINCE LIFT IS NOT INDICATED
TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS NIL FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IS INDICATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CAPE AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO DECREASE
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND LEAVE CHANCE AND
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING, CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE INDICATED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT
EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE FA WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 60S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KGLD THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD. AT KMCK...SOME MVFR STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING...LIFTING AND SCATTERING BY 15-16Z. LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES. ANTICIPATE SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN EARLIER AT KGLD BUT THIS
SHIFT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 252027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. PLAN TO RESTRICT POPS TO EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
FORCING IS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE ON TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SINCE LIFT IS NOT INDICATED
TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS NIL FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IS INDICATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CAPE AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO DECREASE
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND LEAVE CHANCE AND
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING, CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE INDICATED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT
EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE FA WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 60S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO BRIEFLY ADVECT OVER KMCK 11-13Z AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AND POSITION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHERE I INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP FOR KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT
KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. PLAN TO RESTRICT POPS TO EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
FORCING IS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE ON TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SINCE LIFT IS NOT INDICATED
TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS NIL FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IS INDICATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CAPE AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO DECREASE
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND LEAVE CHANCE AND
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING, CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE INDICATED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT
EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE FA WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 60S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO BRIEFLY ADVECT OVER KMCK 11-13Z AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AND POSITION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHERE I INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP FOR KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT
KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251935
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO BRIEFLY ADVECT OVER KMCK 11-13Z AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AND POSITION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHERE I INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP FOR KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT
KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251935
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO BRIEFLY ADVECT OVER KMCK 11-13Z AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AND POSITION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHERE I INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP FOR KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT
KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS SW NEBRASKA...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SE CWA EAST OF COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED WITH ARW/HRRR FAVORING CENTRAL KS JUST EAST OF OUR
CWA FOR CAPE/SHEER AXIS. CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTER OVER NE PANHANDLE
WILL BE FOCUS FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED (WEAK)
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OVER OUR FAR NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHAT APPEARED TO BE LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE HAS TURNED OUT TO BE
FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. FOG
SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITH NO FOG BEING REPORTED HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE MORNING. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS ALREADY BEING EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN
FEATURE.  THE STRONGEST TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS LAST
NIGHT.

TODAY WITH A PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA MAY SEE SOME FOG THIS MORNING.  GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES MAY HAVE THICKEST FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR SO FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE HAVE
NOTICED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER SOUTH.  THIS WILL PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE BROAD LIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE A SMALLER AREA OF MORE FOCUSED LIFT
WILL BE FOUND.  LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL START LATE
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN WITH...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
AND THE TROUGH DEEPENS.  AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM ROUGHLY A LEOTI TO HOXIE AND
NORTON LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DRY LINE
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
AREA.  STORMS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA MAY TRAIN DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE STORMS BEING CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRY
LINE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE TWO MAIN GROUPS OF
STORMS..ONE OVER THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND ONE OF THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INBETWEEN DUE
TO WEAKER MORE BROAD LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30KTS. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA BY MID EVENING.  BY BEHIND THE TROUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL
DECLINE.  A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO BRIEFLY ADVECT OVER KMCK 11-13Z AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AND POSITION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHERE I INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP FOR KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT
KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS SW NEBRASKA...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SE CWA EAST OF COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED WITH ARW/HRRR FAVORING CENTRAL KS JUST EAST OF OUR
CWA FOR CAPE/SHEER AXIS. CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTER OVER NE PANHANDLE
WILL BE FOCUS FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED (WEAK)
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OVER OUR FAR NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHAT APPEARED TO BE LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE HAS TURNED OUT TO BE
FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. FOG
SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITH NO FOG BEING REPORTED HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE MORNING. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS ALREADY BEING EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN
FEATURE.  THE STRONGEST TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS LAST
NIGHT.

TODAY WITH A PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA MAY SEE SOME FOG THIS MORNING.  GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES MAY HAVE THICKEST FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR SO FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE HAVE
NOTICED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER SOUTH.  THIS WILL PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE BROAD LIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE A SMALLER AREA OF MORE FOCUSED LIFT
WILL BE FOUND.  LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL START LATE
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN WITH...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
AND THE TROUGH DEEPENS.  AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM ROUGHLY A LEOTI TO HOXIE AND
NORTON LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DRY LINE
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
AREA.  STORMS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA MAY TRAIN DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE STORMS BEING CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRY
LINE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE TWO MAIN GROUPS OF
STORMS..ONE OVER THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND ONE OF THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INBETWEEN DUE
TO WEAKER MORE BROAD LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30KTS. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA BY MID EVENING.  BY BEHIND THE TROUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL
DECLINE.  A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO BRIEFLY ADVECT OVER KMCK 11-13Z AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AND POSITION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHERE I INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP FOR KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT
KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS SW NEBRASKA...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SE CWA EAST OF COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED WITH ARW/HRRR FAVORING CENTRAL KS JUST EAST OF OUR
CWA FOR CAPE/SHEER AXIS. CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTER OVER NE PANHANDLE
WILL BE FOCUS FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED (WEAK)
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OVER OUR FAR NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHAT APPEARED TO BE LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE HAS TURNED OUT TO BE
FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. FOG
SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITH NO FOG BEING REPORTED HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE MORNING. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS ALREADY BEING EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN
FEATURE.  THE STRONGEST TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS LAST
NIGHT.

TODAY WITH A PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA MAY SEE SOME FOG THIS MORNING.  GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES MAY HAVE THICKEST FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR SO FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE HAVE
NOTICED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER SOUTH.  THIS WILL PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE BROAD LIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE A SMALLER AREA OF MORE FOCUSED LIFT
WILL BE FOUND.  LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL START LATE
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN WITH...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
AND THE TROUGH DEEPENS.  AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM ROUGHLY A LEOTI TO HOXIE AND
NORTON LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DRY LINE
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
AREA.  STORMS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA MAY TRAIN DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE STORMS BEING CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRY
LINE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE TWO MAIN GROUPS OF
STORMS..ONE OVER THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND ONE OF THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INBETWEEN DUE
TO WEAKER MORE BROAD LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30KTS. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA BY MID EVENING.  BY BEHIND THE TROUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL
DECLINE.  A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO BRIEFLY ADVECT OVER KMCK 11-13Z AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AND POSITION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHERE I INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP FOR KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT
KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS SW NEBRASKA...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SE CWA EAST OF COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED WITH ARW/HRRR FAVORING CENTRAL KS JUST EAST OF OUR
CWA FOR CAPE/SHEER AXIS. CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTER OVER NE PANHANDLE
WILL BE FOCUS FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED (WEAK)
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OVER OUR FAR NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHAT APPEARED TO BE LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE HAS TURNED OUT TO BE
FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. FOG
SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITH NO FOG BEING REPORTED HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE MORNING. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS ALREADY BEING EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN
FEATURE.  THE STRONGEST TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS LAST
NIGHT.

TODAY WITH A PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA MAY SEE SOME FOG THIS MORNING.  GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES MAY HAVE THICKEST FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR SO FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE HAVE
NOTICED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER SOUTH.  THIS WILL PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE BROAD LIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE A SMALLER AREA OF MORE FOCUSED LIFT
WILL BE FOUND.  LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL START LATE
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN WITH...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
AND THE TROUGH DEEPENS.  AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM ROUGHLY A LEOTI TO HOXIE AND
NORTON LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DRY LINE
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
AREA.  STORMS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA MAY TRAIN DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE STORMS BEING CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRY
LINE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE TWO MAIN GROUPS OF
STORMS..ONE OVER THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND ONE OF THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INBETWEEN DUE
TO WEAKER MORE BROAD LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30KTS. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA BY MID EVENING.  BY BEHIND THE TROUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL
DECLINE.  A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO BRIEFLY ADVECT OVER KMCK 11-13Z AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AND POSITION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHERE I INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP FOR KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT
KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251713
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS SW NEBRASKA...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SE CWA EAST OF COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED WITH ARW/HRRR FAVORING CENTRAL KS JUST EAST OF OUR
CWA FOR CAPE/SHEER AXIS. CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTER OVER NE PANHANDLE
WILL BE FOCUS FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED (WEAK)
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OVER OUR FAR NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHAT APPEARED TO BE LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE HAS TURNED OUT TO BE
FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. FOG
SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITH NO FOG BEING REPORTED HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE MORNING. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS ALREADY BEING EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN
FEATURE.  THE STRONGEST TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS LAST
NIGHT.

TODAY WITH A PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA MAY SEE SOME FOG THIS MORNING.  GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES MAY HAVE THICKEST FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR SO FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE HAVE
NOTICED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER SOUTH.  THIS WILL PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE BROAD LIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE A SMALLER AREA OF MORE FOCUSED LIFT
WILL BE FOUND.  LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL START LATE
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN WITH...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
AND THE TROUGH DEEPENS.  AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM ROUGHLY A LEOTI TO HOXIE AND
NORTON LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DRY LINE
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
AREA.  STORMS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA MAY TRAIN DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE STORMS BEING CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRY
LINE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE TWO MAIN GROUPS OF
STORMS..ONE OVER THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND ONE OF THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INBETWEEN DUE
TO WEAKER MORE BROAD LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30KTS. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA BY MID EVENING.  BY BEHIND THE TROUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL
DECLINE.  A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS TAFS ARE COMPLETELY VFR FOR BOTH
SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO ALMOST BREEZY.
THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE NEAR OR OVER KMCK. KGLD
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY.
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BRIEFLY DUE TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THE
STORMS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251713
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS SW NEBRASKA...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SE CWA EAST OF COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED WITH ARW/HRRR FAVORING CENTRAL KS JUST EAST OF OUR
CWA FOR CAPE/SHEER AXIS. CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTER OVER NE PANHANDLE
WILL BE FOCUS FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED (WEAK)
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OVER OUR FAR NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHAT APPEARED TO BE LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE HAS TURNED OUT TO BE
FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. FOG
SHOULD BE OUT OF THOSE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITH NO FOG BEING REPORTED HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE MORNING. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS ALREADY BEING EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN
FEATURE.  THE STRONGEST TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS LAST
NIGHT.

TODAY WITH A PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA MAY SEE SOME FOG THIS MORNING.  GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES MAY HAVE THICKEST FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR SO FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE HAVE
NOTICED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER SOUTH.  THIS WILL PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE BROAD LIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE A SMALLER AREA OF MORE FOCUSED LIFT
WILL BE FOUND.  LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL START LATE
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN WITH...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
AND THE TROUGH DEEPENS.  AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM ROUGHLY A LEOTI TO HOXIE AND
NORTON LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DRY LINE
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
AREA.  STORMS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA MAY TRAIN DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE STORMS BEING CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRY
LINE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE TWO MAIN GROUPS OF
STORMS..ONE OVER THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND ONE OF THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INBETWEEN DUE
TO WEAKER MORE BROAD LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30KTS. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA BY MID EVENING.  BY BEHIND THE TROUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL
DECLINE.  A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS TAFS ARE COMPLETELY VFR FOR BOTH
SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO ALMOST BREEZY.
THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE NEAR OR OVER KMCK. KGLD
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY.
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BRIEFLY DUE TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THE
STORMS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...JTL




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