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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301426
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
826 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE LATEST WIND INFORMATION.
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 83 THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH AND WEST OF THESE HIGHWAYS THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECLINE SOME BUT STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY THE EVENING.

DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES. DESPITE THE
WINDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEING JUST UNDER CRITERIA FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WARNING...THE VERY DRY FUELS WILL CAUSE ANY FIRE
THAT DEVELOPS TO GROW VERY RAPIDLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECAST AS
PER OVERNIGHT VWP PRODUCT AND WITH WINDS TOTALLY DECOUPLING AT
MCCOOK THINK THAT THREAT EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301426
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
826 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE LATEST WIND INFORMATION.
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 83 THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH AND WEST OF THESE HIGHWAYS THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECLINE SOME BUT STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY THE EVENING.

DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES. DESPITE THE
WINDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEING JUST UNDER CRITERIA FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WARNING...THE VERY DRY FUELS WILL CAUSE ANY FIRE
THAT DEVELOPS TO GROW VERY RAPIDLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECAST AS
PER OVERNIGHT VWP PRODUCT AND WITH WINDS TOTALLY DECOUPLING AT
MCCOOK THINK THAT THREAT EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301426
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
826 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE LATEST WIND INFORMATION.
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 83 THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH AND WEST OF THESE HIGHWAYS THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECLINE SOME BUT STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY THE EVENING.

DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES. DESPITE THE
WINDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEING JUST UNDER CRITERIA FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WARNING...THE VERY DRY FUELS WILL CAUSE ANY FIRE
THAT DEVELOPS TO GROW VERY RAPIDLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECAST AS
PER OVERNIGHT VWP PRODUCT AND WITH WINDS TOTALLY DECOUPLING AT
MCCOOK THINK THAT THREAT EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301426
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
826 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE LATEST WIND INFORMATION.
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 83 THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH AND WEST OF THESE HIGHWAYS THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECLINE SOME BUT STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY THE EVENING.

DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES. DESPITE THE
WINDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEING JUST UNDER CRITERIA FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WARNING...THE VERY DRY FUELS WILL CAUSE ANY FIRE
THAT DEVELOPS TO GROW VERY RAPIDLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECAST AS
PER OVERNIGHT VWP PRODUCT AND WITH WINDS TOTALLY DECOUPLING AT
MCCOOK THINK THAT THREAT EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECAST AS
PER OVERNIGHT VWP PRODUCT AND WITH WINDS TOTALLY DECOUPLING AT
MCCOOK THINK THAT THREAT EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECAST AS
PER OVERNIGHT VWP PRODUCT AND WITH WINDS TOTALLY DECOUPLING AT
MCCOOK THINK THAT THREAT EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECAST AS
PER OVERNIGHT VWP PRODUCT AND WITH WINDS TOTALLY DECOUPLING AT
MCCOOK THINK THAT THREAT EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECAST AS
PER OVERNIGHT VWP PRODUCT AND WITH WINDS TOTALLY DECOUPLING AT
MCCOOK THINK THAT THREAT EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT
TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSISTENTLY CLIMB ABOVE 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...SO RED FLAG
WARNING NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT MUCH DRIER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING A
DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT
TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSISTENTLY CLIMB ABOVE 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...SO RED FLAG
WARNING NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT MUCH DRIER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING A
DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT
TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSISTENTLY CLIMB ABOVE 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...SO RED FLAG
WARNING NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT MUCH DRIER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING A
DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT
TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSISTENTLY CLIMB ABOVE 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...SO RED FLAG
WARNING NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT MUCH DRIER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING A
DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DUE TO THE LATEST
TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS LASTING A WHILE LONGER ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP.
RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN IN THE WEST AND IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES
AND EXPECT THAT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DUE TO THE LATEST
TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS LASTING A WHILE LONGER ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP.
RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN IN THE WEST AND IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES
AND EXPECT THAT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DUE TO THE LATEST
TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS LASTING A WHILE LONGER ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP.
RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN IN THE WEST AND IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES
AND EXPECT THAT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DUE TO THE LATEST
TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS LASTING A WHILE LONGER ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP.
RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN IN THE WEST AND IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES
AND EXPECT THAT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THAT TIME...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292341
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SO WILL START WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292341
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SO WILL START WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292341
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SO WILL START WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292341
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SO WILL START WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292029
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25-40KTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 06-06Z TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION COMES UNDER RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY 18Z...A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER WILL TURN WINDS WESTERLY
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292029
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ANOTHER
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL.  WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INCREASE
IN THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE WHEN THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LOWEST. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.  BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE SAME REASON.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THE COLDEST
DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AS A RESULT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25-40KTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 06-06Z TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION COMES UNDER RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY 18Z...A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER WILL TURN WINDS WESTERLY
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS AREAS WHERE
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE
ERRATIC AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291830
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1230 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25-40KTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 06-06Z TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION COMES UNDER RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY 18Z...A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER WILL TURN WINDS WESTERLY
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291140
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND CLIMB TO AROUND 28KTS SUSTAINED
THROUGH 17Z WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291140
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND CLIMB TO AROUND 28KTS SUSTAINED
THROUGH 17Z WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291140
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND CLIMB TO AROUND 28KTS SUSTAINED
THROUGH 17Z WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291140
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND CLIMB TO AROUND 28KTS SUSTAINED
THROUGH 17Z WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290840
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290840
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290840
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290840
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290701
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
101 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290701
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
101 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290438
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290438
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290438
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 282340
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES. AT THAT TIME
SUSTAINED WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL BE NEAR 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 24 KNOTS. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP SUNDAY MORNING AND MIXING
BEGINS...THESE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 22 TO 24 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 282340
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES. AT THAT TIME
SUSTAINED WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL BE NEAR 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 24 KNOTS. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP SUNDAY MORNING AND MIXING
BEGINS...THESE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 22 TO 24 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 282340
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES. AT THAT TIME
SUSTAINED WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL BE NEAR 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 24 KNOTS. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP SUNDAY MORNING AND MIXING
BEGINS...THESE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 22 TO 24 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 282340
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES. AT THAT TIME
SUSTAINED WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL BE NEAR 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 24 KNOTS. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP SUNDAY MORNING AND MIXING
BEGINS...THESE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 22 TO 24 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 282058
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
258 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER 08Z AS THE
SURFACE THROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AND THEN
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT BETWEEN
06-12Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER
12Z


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 282058
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
258 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER 08Z AS THE
SURFACE THROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AND THEN
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT BETWEEN
06-12Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER
12Z


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER 08Z AS THE
SURFACE THROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AND THEN
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT BETWEEN
06-12Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER
12Z

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER 08Z AS THE
SURFACE THROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AND THEN
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT BETWEEN
06-12Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER
12Z

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281112
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF 10000-20000FT CIGS TONIGHT BUT DUE TO VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLIGHT REDUCTION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281112
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF 10000-20000FT CIGS TONIGHT BUT DUE TO VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLIGHT REDUCTION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281112
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF 10000-20000FT CIGS TONIGHT BUT DUE TO VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLIGHT REDUCTION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280646
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280646
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280453
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280453
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFTING/VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT BUT
FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFTING/VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT BUT
FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFTING/VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT BUT
FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFTING/VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT BUT
FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272050
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272050
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ZCZC TOPWRKJSL 052051
TTAA00 KTOP DDHHMM

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ZCZC TOPWRKJSL 052051
TTAA00 KTOP DDHHMM

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 271731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 271731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 271731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...RRH




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