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000
FXUS63 KGLD 051100
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW HOT IT GETS THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE ENTIRE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN IN THIS ENTIRE
AREA HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MID AND UPPER
RIDGING IS ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS ARE STARTING OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
DID WELL WITH THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM DOING THE BEST. THE SREF...
CANADIAN...ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE GFS
...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SURFACE
RIDGE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST AND A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE. NEW DATA SUPPORTS GOING
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES AS HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. VERY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY
TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AT THE SAME A LARGE...COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDED WARMER FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. SO DID RAISE MAXES A LITTLE
WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS SHOWING UP.

MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING A COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH ONLY
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING THIS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE SETTING UP DURING
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. CONSIDERING THE SHORTWAVES AND PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONT HAVE PROBLEM KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE
DISCONCERTING.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A UNCERTAIN AND COMPLICATED FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE AREA WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM THESE
STORMS MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT IN PINPOINTING WITH MORE CERTAINTY THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS. AGAIN THIS WILL BE TIED TO WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL END UP.

ALSO CAUSING DIFFICULTY IS THE PASSAGE OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES
DURING THIS PERIOD. DURING THE MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MORNING AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MODEL OUTPUT/WPC DOES HAVE
QPF IN THE MORNING. ALSO THE CAP BY MORNING DECREASES ALONG WITH A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN CAPE.

IN GENERAL THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT OR WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH. STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHAT IS THE MOST CERTAIN AND
IMPRESSIVE IS ALL THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A RATHER STRONG A LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER JET OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THIS FEATURE STICKING AROUND DURING THE NIGHT.

SO DO EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EXTEND WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO THE JET
LIFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO
HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE DRIEST AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE DEEPER LIFT AND BETTER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA.
ALL THIS COULD BE FOR NAUGHT IF FRONT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OR NORTH
THAN EXPECTED OR IF THE MESOSCALE OVERLY INFLUENCES WHAT HAPPENS.
ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

OF SECONDARY CONCERN IS HOW WARM IT GETS AND THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE FRONT. FRONT DOES LOOK FURTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THAT
AND COLLABORATION...RAISED MAXES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. IT ALSO
LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

AN ACTIVE PATTERN GENERATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. CHANCES TAPER OFF ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WHEN THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IMPROVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE LOW SEEMS TO STAY SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY/DRYLINE PLACEMENT. THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE
REGION SINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS THE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS
DRIER TO START...BUT GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A SECOND UPPER LOW
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS VARY WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE...SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
KGLD...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 23 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM 18Z TO 01Z.

FOR KMCK...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AT NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 051100
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW HOT IT GETS THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE ENTIRE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN IN THIS ENTIRE
AREA HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MID AND UPPER
RIDGING IS ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS ARE STARTING OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
DID WELL WITH THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM DOING THE BEST. THE SREF...
CANADIAN...ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE GFS
...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SURFACE
RIDGE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST AND A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE. NEW DATA SUPPORTS GOING
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES AS HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. VERY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY
TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AT THE SAME A LARGE...COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDED WARMER FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. SO DID RAISE MAXES A LITTLE
WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS SHOWING UP.

MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING A COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH ONLY
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING THIS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE SETTING UP DURING
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. CONSIDERING THE SHORTWAVES AND PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONT HAVE PROBLEM KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE
DISCONCERTING.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A UNCERTAIN AND COMPLICATED FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE AREA WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM THESE
STORMS MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT IN PINPOINTING WITH MORE CERTAINTY THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS. AGAIN THIS WILL BE TIED TO WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL END UP.

ALSO CAUSING DIFFICULTY IS THE PASSAGE OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES
DURING THIS PERIOD. DURING THE MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MORNING AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MODEL OUTPUT/WPC DOES HAVE
QPF IN THE MORNING. ALSO THE CAP BY MORNING DECREASES ALONG WITH A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN CAPE.

IN GENERAL THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT OR WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH. STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHAT IS THE MOST CERTAIN AND
IMPRESSIVE IS ALL THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A RATHER STRONG A LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER JET OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THIS FEATURE STICKING AROUND DURING THE NIGHT.

SO DO EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EXTEND WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO THE JET
LIFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO
HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE DRIEST AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE DEEPER LIFT AND BETTER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA.
ALL THIS COULD BE FOR NAUGHT IF FRONT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OR NORTH
THAN EXPECTED OR IF THE MESOSCALE OVERLY INFLUENCES WHAT HAPPENS.
ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

OF SECONDARY CONCERN IS HOW WARM IT GETS AND THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE FRONT. FRONT DOES LOOK FURTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THAT
AND COLLABORATION...RAISED MAXES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. IT ALSO
LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

AN ACTIVE PATTERN GENERATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. CHANCES TAPER OFF ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WHEN THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IMPROVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE LOW SEEMS TO STAY SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY/DRYLINE PLACEMENT. THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE
REGION SINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS THE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS
DRIER TO START...BUT GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A SECOND UPPER LOW
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS VARY WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE...SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
KGLD...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 23 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM 18Z TO 01Z.

FOR KMCK...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AT NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 051004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
404 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW HOT IT GETS THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE ENTIRE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN IN THIS ENTIRE
AREA HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MID AND UPPER
RIDGING IS ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS ARE STARTING OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
DID WELL WITH THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM DOING THE BEST. THE SREF...
CANADIAN...ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE GFS
...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SURFACE
RIDGE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST AND A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE. NEW DATA SUPPORTS GOING
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES AS HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. VERY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY
TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AT THE SAME A LARGE...COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDED WARMER FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. SO DID RAISE MAXES A LITTLE
WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS SHOWING UP.

MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING A COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH ONLY
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING THIS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE SETTING UP DURING
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. CONSIDERING THE SHORTWAVES AND PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONT HAVE PROBLEM KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE
DISCONCERTING.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A UNCERTAIN AND COMPLICATED FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE AREA WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM THESE
STORMS MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT IN PINPOINTING WITH MORE CERTAINTY THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS. AGAIN THIS WILL BE TIED TO WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL END UP.

ALSO CAUSING DIFFICULTY IS THE PASSAGE OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES
DURING THIS PERIOD. DURING THE MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MORNING AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MODEL OUTPUT/WPC DOES HAVE
QPF IN THE MORNING. ALSO THE CAP BY MORNING DECREASES ALONG WITH A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN CAPE.

IN GENERAL THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT OR WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH. STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHAT IS THE MOST CERTAIN AND
IMPRESSIVE IS ALL THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A RATHER STRONG A LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER JET OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THIS FEATURE STICKING AROUND DURING THE NIGHT.

SO DO EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EXTEND WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO THE JET
LIFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO
HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE DRIEST AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE DEEPER LIFT AND BETTER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA.
ALL THIS COULD BE FOR NAUGHT IF FRONT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OR NORTH
THAN EXPECTED OR IF THE MESOSCALE OVERLY INFLUENCES WHAT HAPPENS.
ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

OF SECONDARY CONCERN IS HOW WARM IT GETS AND THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE FRONT. FRONT DOES LOOK FURTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THAT
AND COLLABORATION...RAISED MAXES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. IT ALSO
LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

AN ACTIVE PATTERN GENERATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. CHANCES TAPER OFF ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WHEN THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IMPROVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE LOW SEEMS TO STAY SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY/DRYLINE PLACEMENT. THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE
REGION SINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS THE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS
DRIER TO START...BUT GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A SECOND UPPER LOW
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS VARY WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE...SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER
(AROUND 30KT)...HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND
FROM THIS I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP. GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS (15-20KT GUSTS) WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER NW KANSAS.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE AT KMCK TO 10-13KT AT KMCK...HOWEVER
THEY WILL AVOID THE GUSTS OBSERVED AT KGLD. AS TENDS TO BE THE
CASE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEAT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 050509
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1109 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH NOW RIDGING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANOTHER 3-4 C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING RIGHT UP
THRU THE MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COMES
ABOUT...MODELS WILL SHIFT/BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGE FROM MORE SO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER H5 LOW THAT SETS UP AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS A RESULT...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WHICH LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME RW/TRW DEVELOP
W/ AREAL COVERAGE LOW BASED ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FRONT REMAINS ALONG NORTHERN ZONES TO
START OFF SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SPC STILL
CONTINUES MENTION THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER SHIFTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP EASTWARD AS
LOW MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY...SHIFTING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH IT.

THE FIRST HALF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND RW/TRW CHANCES
FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW AS IT TRAVERSE THE PLAINS REGION. WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BU WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY
COULD WORK IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM BEFORE RIDGING OCCURS.

OVERALL FOR TEMPS...FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TAP FOR HIGHS...THEN TRANSITION DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS AROUND
70F AS NEXT WEEK ROLLS AROUND WITH EXITING SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN
COOLER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER
(AROUND 30KT)...HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND
FROM THIS I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP. GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS (15-20KT GUSTS) WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER NW KANSAS.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE AT KMCK TO 10-13KT AT KMCK...HOWEVER
THEY WILL AVOID THE GUSTS OBSERVED AT KGLD. AS TENDS TO BE THE
CASE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEAT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 050509
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1109 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH NOW RIDGING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANOTHER 3-4 C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING RIGHT UP
THRU THE MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COMES
ABOUT...MODELS WILL SHIFT/BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGE FROM MORE SO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER H5 LOW THAT SETS UP AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS A RESULT...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WHICH LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME RW/TRW DEVELOP
W/ AREAL COVERAGE LOW BASED ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FRONT REMAINS ALONG NORTHERN ZONES TO
START OFF SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SPC STILL
CONTINUES MENTION THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER SHIFTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP EASTWARD AS
LOW MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY...SHIFTING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH IT.

THE FIRST HALF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND RW/TRW CHANCES
FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW AS IT TRAVERSE THE PLAINS REGION. WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BU WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY
COULD WORK IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM BEFORE RIDGING OCCURS.

OVERALL FOR TEMPS...FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TAP FOR HIGHS...THEN TRANSITION DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS AROUND
70F AS NEXT WEEK ROLLS AROUND WITH EXITING SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN
COOLER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER
(AROUND 30KT)...HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND
FROM THIS I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP. GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS (15-20KT GUSTS) WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER NW KANSAS.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE AT KMCK TO 10-13KT AT KMCK...HOWEVER
THEY WILL AVOID THE GUSTS OBSERVED AT KGLD. AS TENDS TO BE THE
CASE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEAT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 042319
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
519 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH NOW RIDGING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANOTHER 3-4 C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING RIGHT UP
THRU THE MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COMES
ABOUT...MODELS WILL SHIFT/BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGE FROM MORE SO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER H5 LOW THAT SETS UP AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS A RESULT...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WHICH LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME RW/TRW DEVELOP
W/ AREAL COVERAGE LOW BASED ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FRONT REMAINS ALONG NORTHERN ZONES TO
START OFF SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SPC STILL
CONTINUES MENTION THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER SHIFTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP EASTWARD AS
LOW MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY...SHIFTING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH IT.

THE FIRST HALF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND RW/TRW CHANCES
FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW AS IT TRAVERSE THE PLAINS REGION. WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BU WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY
COULD WORK IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM BEFORE RIDGING OCCURS.

OVERALL FOR TEMPS...FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TAP FOR HIGHS...THEN TRANSITION DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS AROUND
70F AS NEXT WEEK ROLLS AROUND WITH EXITING SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN
COOLER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE FIRST
12HR OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WILL RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AT BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTS TO 20KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGLD AFTER 15Z THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AT KMCK MAINLY IN
THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 042319
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
519 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH NOW RIDGING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANOTHER 3-4 C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING RIGHT UP
THRU THE MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COMES
ABOUT...MODELS WILL SHIFT/BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGE FROM MORE SO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER H5 LOW THAT SETS UP AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS A RESULT...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WHICH LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME RW/TRW DEVELOP
W/ AREAL COVERAGE LOW BASED ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FRONT REMAINS ALONG NORTHERN ZONES TO
START OFF SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SPC STILL
CONTINUES MENTION THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER SHIFTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP EASTWARD AS
LOW MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY...SHIFTING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH IT.

THE FIRST HALF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND RW/TRW CHANCES
FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW AS IT TRAVERSE THE PLAINS REGION. WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BU WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY
COULD WORK IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM BEFORE RIDGING OCCURS.

OVERALL FOR TEMPS...FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TAP FOR HIGHS...THEN TRANSITION DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS AROUND
70F AS NEXT WEEK ROLLS AROUND WITH EXITING SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN
COOLER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE FIRST
12HR OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WILL RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AT BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTS TO 20KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGLD AFTER 15Z THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AT KMCK MAINLY IN
THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 042003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH NOW RIDGING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANOTHER 3-4 C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING RIGHT UP
THRU THE MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COMES
ABOUT...MODELS WILL SHIFT/BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGE FROM MORE SO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER H5 LOW THAT SETS UP AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS A RESULT...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WHICH LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME RW/TRW DEVELOP
W/ AREAL COVERAGE LOW BASED ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FRONT REMAINS ALONG NORTHERN ZONES TO
START OFF SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SPC STILL
CONTINUES MENTION THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER SHIFTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP EASTWARD AS
LOW MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY...SHIFTING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH IT.

THE FIRST HALF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND RW/TRW CHANCES
FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW AS IT TRAVERSE THE PLAINS REGION. WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BU WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY
COULD WORK IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM BEFORE RIDGING OCCURS.

OVERALL FOR TEMPS...FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TAP FOR HIGHS...THEN TRANSITION DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS AROUND
70F AS NEXT WEEK ROLLS AROUND WITH EXITING SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN
COOLER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TIMEFRAMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A TREND TOWARD STRENGTHENING S-SE FLOW
DURING THE DAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 042003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH NOW RIDGING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANOTHER 3-4 C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TRI STATE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING RIGHT UP
THRU THE MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COMES
ABOUT...MODELS WILL SHIFT/BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGE FROM MORE SO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER H5 LOW THAT SETS UP AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS A RESULT...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WHICH LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SET UP ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME RW/TRW DEVELOP
W/ AREAL COVERAGE LOW BASED ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FRONT REMAINS ALONG NORTHERN ZONES TO
START OFF SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SPC STILL
CONTINUES MENTION THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER SHIFTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP EASTWARD AS
LOW MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY...SHIFTING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH IT.

THE FIRST HALF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND RW/TRW CHANCES
FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW AS IT TRAVERSE THE PLAINS REGION. WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BU WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY
COULD WORK IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM BEFORE RIDGING OCCURS.

OVERALL FOR TEMPS...FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TAP FOR HIGHS...THEN TRANSITION DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS AROUND
70F AS NEXT WEEK ROLLS AROUND WITH EXITING SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN
COOLER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TIMEFRAMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A TREND TOWARD STRENGTHENING S-SE FLOW
DURING THE DAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 041949
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH NOW RIDGING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANOTHER 3-4 C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ADVANCES.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION AND SOME MOISTURE FILTERS IN AS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE LOW. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...YET THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AS WELL AS BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE
PLACEMENT/TIMING IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS TO BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL EXIST IN THE REGION SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AND GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AT ANY RATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
PLAINS.

DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ITS WAY
ALONG TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A TREND TOWARD STRENGTHENING S-SE FLOW
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 041131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW MUCH TO WARM UP TEMPERATURES AND A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
HAS PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET.
AGAIN THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING THE BEST WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THE
ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/NAM/SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE TOWARD THE
AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AROUND. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TRYING TO SAG INTO THE AREA AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
WARMING OVER YESTERDAYS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS/BIASES AND WARMING INDICATED AT 850 MB...WARMED UP THE MAXES
A LITTLE. FOR THE NIGHT...LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION. ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH CREATES WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. PER THE REASONING ABOVE...I
ONCE AGAIN RAISED MAXES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE SREF PROBABILITIES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SHOW NOTHING SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE STARTS PUSHING TO THE EAST. MODELS
APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE PATTERN IN PLACE. SO WOULD EXPECT STRONGER RIDGING.

HOWEVER AFTER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT UP TO THIS PERIOD...MODELS START
DIVERGING IN THIS PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE
TEMPERATURES AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
WHERE THE MODELS PUT THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE CANADIAN NEXT IN LINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH...STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING
THE PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO NOT MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS
SOUTH.

FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING THE ABOVE AND REASONING USED
FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. FOR RAINFALL CHANCES...SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH CAP. AFTER COLLABORATION...AND
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND BEING A LITTLE OVER 3 DAYS
OUT...PLAN ON KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY NORTHWEST CORNER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ADVANCES.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION AND SOME MOISTURE FILTERS IN AS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE LOW. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...YET THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AS WELL AS BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE
PLACEMENT/TIMING IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS TO BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL EXIST IN THE REGION SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AND GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AT ANY RATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
PLAINS.

DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ITS WAY
ALONG TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 040935
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW MUCH TO WARM UP TEMPERATURES AND A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
HAS PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET.
AGAIN THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING THE BEST WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THE
ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/NAM/SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE TOWARD THE
AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AROUND. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TRYING TO SAG INTO THE AREA AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
WARMING OVER YESTERDAYS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS/BIASES AND WARMING INDICATED AT 850 MB...WARMED UP THE MAXES
A LITTLE. FOR THE NIGHT...LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION. ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH CREATES WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. PER THE REASONING ABOVE...I
ONCE AGAIN RAISED MAXES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE SREF PROBABILITIES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SHOW NOTHING SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE STARTS PUSHING TO THE EAST. MODELS
APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE PATTERN IN PLACE. SO WOULD EXPECT STRONGER RIDGING.

HOWEVER AFTER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT UP TO THIS PERIOD...MODELS START
DIVERGING IN THIS PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE
TEMPERATURES AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
WHERE THE MODELS PUT THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE CANADIAN NEXT IN LINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH...STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING
THE PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO NOT MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS
SOUTH.

FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING THE ABOVE AND REASONING USED
FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. FOR RAINFALL CHANCES...SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH CAP. AFTER COLLABORATION...AND
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND BEING A LITTLE OVER 3 DAYS
OUT...PLAN ON KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY NORTHWEST CORNER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ADVANCES.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION AND SOME MOISTURE FILTERS IN AS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE LOW. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...YET THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AS WELL AS BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE
PLACEMENT/TIMING IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS TO BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL EXIST IN THE REGION SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AND GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AT ANY RATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
PLAINS.

DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ITS WAY
ALONG TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PREVAILING
WINDS BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 040919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
319 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW MUCH TO WARM UP TEMPERATURES AND A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
HAS PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET.
AGAIN THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING THE BEST WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THE
ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/NAM/SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE TOWARD THE
AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AROUND. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TRYING TO SAG INTO THE AREA AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
WARMING OVER YESTERDAYS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS/BIASES AND WARMING INDICATED AT 850 MB...WARMED UP THE MAXES
A LITTLE. FOR THE NIGHT...LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION. ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH CREATES WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. PER THE REASONING ABOVE...I
ONCE AGAIN RAISED MAXES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE SREF PROBABILITIES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SHOW NOTHING SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE STARTS PUSHING TO THE EAST. MODELS
APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE PATTERN IN PLACE. SO WOULD EXPECT STRONGER RIDGING.

HOWEVER AFTER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT UP TO THIS PERIOD...MODELS START
DIVERGING IN THIS PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE
TEMPERATURES AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
WHERE THE MODELS PUT THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE CANADIAN NEXT IN LINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH...STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING
THE PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO NOT MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS
SOUTH.

FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING THE ABOVE AND REASONING USED
FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. FOR RAINFALL CHANCES...SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH CAP. AFTER COLLABORATION...AND
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND BEING A LITTLE OVER 3 DAYS
OUT...PLAN ON KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY NORTHWEST CORNER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ADVANCES.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION AND SOME MOISTURE FILTERS IN AS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE LOW. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...YET THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AS WELL AS BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE
PLACEMENT/TIMING IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IS LOWER. THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE
REGION SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AND GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
ZONES. AT ANY RATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE PLAINS.

DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ITS WAY
ALONG TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PREVAILING
WINDS BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 040912
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
312 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW MUCH TO WARM UP TEMPERATURES AND A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
HAS PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET.
AGAIN THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING THE BEST WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THE
ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/NAM/SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE TOWARD THE
AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AROUND. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TRYING TO SAG INTO THE AREA AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
WARMING OVER YESTERDAYS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS/BIASES AND WARMING INDICATED AT 850 MB...WARMED UP THE MAXES
A LITTLE. FOR THE NIGHT...LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION. ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH CREATES WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. PER THE REASONING ABOVE...I
ONCE AGAIN RAISED MAXES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE SREF PROBABILITIES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SHOW NOTHING SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE STARTS PUSHING TO THE EAST. MODELS
APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE PATTERN IN PLACE. SO WOULD EXPECT STRONGER RIDGING.

HOWEVER AFTER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT UP TO THIS PERIOD...MODELS START
DIVERGING IN THIS PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE
TEMPERATURES AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
WHERE THE MODELS PUT THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE CANADIAN NEXT IN LINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH...STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING
THE PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO NOT MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS
SOUTH.

FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING THE ABOVE AND REASONING USED
FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. FOR RAINFALL CHANCES...SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH CAP. AFTER COLLABORATION...AND
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND BEING A LITTLE OVER 3 DAYS
OUT...PLAN ON KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY NORTHWEST CORNER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ADVANCES.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION AND SOME MOISTURE FILTERS IN AS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE LOW. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...YET THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AS WELL AS BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE
PLACEMENT/TIMING IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS TO BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL EXIST IN THE REGION SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AND GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AT ANY RATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
PLAINS.

DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ITS WAY
ALONG TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PREVAILING
WINDS BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 040822
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW MUCH TO WARM UP TEMPERATURES AND A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
HAS PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET.
AGAIN THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING THE BEST WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THE
ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/NAM/SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE TOWARD THE
AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AROUND. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TRYING TO SAG INTO THE AREA AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
WARMING OVER YESTERDAYS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS/BIASES AND WARMING INDICATED AT 850 MB...WARMED UP THE MAXES
A LITTLE. FOR THE NIGHT...LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION. ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH CREATES WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. PER THE REASONING ABOVE...I
ONCE AGAIN RAISED MAXES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE SREF PROBABILITIES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SHOW NOTHING SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE STARTS PUSHING TO THE EAST. MODELS
APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE PATTERN IN PLACE. SO WOULD EXPECT STRONGER RIDGING.

HOWEVER AFTER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT UP TO THIS PERIOD...MODELS START
DIVERGING IN THIS PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE
TEMPERATURES AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
WHERE THE MODELS PUT THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE CANADIAN NEXT IN LINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH...STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING
THE PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO NOT MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS
SOUTH.

FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING THE ABOVE AND REASONING USED
FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. FOR RAINFALL CHANCES...SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH CAP. AFTER COLLABORATION...AND
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND BEING A LITTLE OVER 3 DAYS
OUT...PLAN ON KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY NORTHWEST CORNER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S C. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WHILE THE
EXTENDED MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OVER THE
WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PREVAILING
WINDS BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 040512
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1112 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING IS YIELDING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...TEMPS IN THE U50S THRU THE L60S AND A NORTHERLY WIND
AVERAGING 10-20MPH. AREAS SEEING DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS ARE THE LOCALES MOSTLY SEEING THE
LOWER RANGE OF TEMPS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS SEEING CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME WILL SEE IT DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO ENSUE FOR THE OVERTIME PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WX INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTACT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
A GENERAL WNW FLOW THRU THE MID LEVELS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE THE CWA AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WHICH
IN TURN WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S WEST THRU THE
LOWER TO MID 40S EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE MID 70S FOR ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S C. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WHILE THE
EXTENDED MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OVER THE
WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PREVAILING
WINDS BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 032309
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
509 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING IS YIELDING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...TEMPS IN THE U50S THRU THE L60S AND A NORTHERLY WIND
AVERAGING 10-20MPH. AREAS SEEING DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS ARE THE LOCALES MOSTLY SEEING THE
LOWER RANGE OF TEMPS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS SEEING CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME WILL SEE IT DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO ENSUE FOR THE OVERTIME PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WX INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTACT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
A GENERAL WNW FLOW THRU THE MID LEVELS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE THE CWA AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WHICH
IN TURN WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S WEST THRU THE
LOWER TO MID 40S EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE MID 70S FOR ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S C. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WHILE THE
EXTENDED MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OVER THE
WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. AFTER 18-20KT GUSTS DECREASE IN THE EARLY TAF
PERIOD (AFTER SUNSET) NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 032040
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING IS YIELDING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...TEMPS IN THE U50S THRU THE L60S AND A NORTHERLY WIND
AVERAGING 10-20MPH. AREAS SEEING DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS ARE THE LOCALES MOSTLY SEEING THE LOWER RANGE
OF TEMPS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS SEEING CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME WILL SEE IT DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO ENSUE FOR THE OVERTIME PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WX INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTACT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AND A
GENERAL WNW FLOW THRU THE MID LEVELS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL GIVE THE CWA AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WHICH IN TURN
WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S WEST THRU THE
LOWER TO MID 40S EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE MID 70S FOR ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S C. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WHILE THE
EXTENDED MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OVER
THE WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR BOTH KGLD/KMCK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SKC BY 00Z-01Z WED. FROM 18Z-
21Z...BKN025 POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-01Z THEN
WNW AROUND 10KTS. BY 13Z-14Z WED...BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 031852
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING IS YIELDING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...TEMPS IN THE U50S THRU THE L60S AND A NORTHERLY WIND
AVERAGING 10-20MPH. AREAS SEEING DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS ARE THE LOCALES MOSTLY SEEING THE LOWER RANGE
OF TEMPS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS SEEING CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME WILL SEE IT DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO ENSUE FOR THE OVERTIME PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WX INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTACT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AND A
GENERAL WNW FLOW THRU THE MID LEVELS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL GIVE THE CWA AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WHICH IN TURN
WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S WEST THRU THE
LOWER TO MID 40S EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE MID 70S FOR ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...RETURN MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HEADS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SITS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE. HOWEVER...MUCH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. GUIDANCE DIFFERS NOT ONLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVES...BUT THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND BOUNDARIES AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...FROM THE 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR BOTH KGLD/KMCK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SKC BY 00Z-01Z WED. FROM 18Z-
21Z...BKN025 POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-01Z THEN
WNW AROUND 10KTS. BY 13Z-14Z WED...BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 031852
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING IS YIELDING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...TEMPS IN THE U50S THRU THE L60S AND A NORTHERLY WIND
AVERAGING 10-20MPH. AREAS SEEING DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS ARE THE LOCALES MOSTLY SEEING THE LOWER RANGE
OF TEMPS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS SEEING CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME WILL SEE IT DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO ENSUE FOR THE OVERTIME PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WX INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTACT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AND A
GENERAL WNW FLOW THRU THE MID LEVELS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL GIVE THE CWA AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WHICH IN TURN
WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S WEST THRU THE
LOWER TO MID 40S EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE MID 70S FOR ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...RETURN MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HEADS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SITS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE. HOWEVER...MUCH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. GUIDANCE DIFFERS NOT ONLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVES...BUT THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND BOUNDARIES AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...FROM THE 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR BOTH KGLD/KMCK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SKC BY 00Z-01Z WED. FROM 18Z-
21Z...BKN025 POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-01Z THEN
WNW AROUND 10KTS. BY 13Z-14Z WED...BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 031724
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1124 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY ISOLATED RW/TRW THAT HAD
BEEN MOVING SOUTH THRU THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. MODERATELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. AT MID
LEVELS...THE CANADIAN FOLLOWED BY THE GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND PRESSURE FIELD FOLLOWED BY
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS AREA NEAR 12Z. ALSO LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
DURING THE MORNING AND MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT THE VERY
LEAST IT WILL BE SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MORNING. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING SOMETHING A LITTLE UNUSUAL WHICH MODELS MAY NOT BE LATCHING
ONTO. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR WITH THIS AND IN FACT
WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. FOR YESTERDAY
THE GUIDANCE RAN A LITTLE COOL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE
BIASES AND THE AMOUNT OF RISE AT 850 MB OVER YESTERDAY...RAISED THE
MAXES SOME OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD
WARMEST DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN PER THE REASONING
GIVEN ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES ONCE AGAIN. INTERESTING AND TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE MINS. WIND FIELD GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION. FOR THAT REASON
TRENDED MINS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...DUE TO THOSE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ITS HOLD ON THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS...DESPITE THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE. CONTINUED THE
WARMING TREND OF THE MAXES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT I
STILL MAY BE A LITTLE COOL.

FOR THE NIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR
AND EXPECT VERY MILD MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM IS INDICATING
SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG. HOWEVER...AM NOT BUYING IT YET AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...RETURN MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HEADS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SITS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE. HOWEVER...MUCH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. GUIDANCE DIFFERS NOT ONLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVES...BUT THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND BOUNDARIES AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...FROM THE 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR BOTH KGLD/KMCK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SKC BY 00Z-01Z WED. FROM 18Z-
21Z...BKN025 POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-01Z THEN
WNW AROUND 10KTS. BY 13Z-14Z WED...BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 031412
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
812 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY ISOLATED RW/TRW THAT HAD
BEEN MOVING SOUTH THRU THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. MODERATELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. AT MID
LEVELS...THE CANADIAN FOLLOWED BY THE GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND PRESSURE FIELD FOLLOWED BY
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS AREA NEAR 12Z. ALSO LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
DURING THE MORNING AND MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT THE VERY
LEAST IT WILL BE SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MORNING. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING SOMETHING A LITTLE UNUSUAL WHICH MODELS MAY NOT BE LATCHING
ONTO. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR WITH THIS AND IN FACT
WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. FOR YESTERDAY
THE GUIDANCE RAN A LITTLE COOL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE
BIASES AND THE AMOUNT OF RISE AT 850 MB OVER YESTERDAY...RAISED THE
MAXES SOME OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD
WARMEST DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN PER THE REASONING
GIVEN ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES ONCE AGAIN. INTERESTING AND TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE MINS. WIND FIELD GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION. FOR THAT REASON
TRENDED MINS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...DUE TO THOSE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ITS HOLD ON THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS...DESPITE THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE. CONTINUED THE
WARMING TREND OF THE MAXES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT I
STILL MAY BE A LITTLE COOL.

FOR THE NIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR
AND EXPECT VERY MILD MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM IS INDICATING
SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG. HOWEVER...AM NOT BUYING IT YET AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...RETURN MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HEADS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SITS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE. HOWEVER...MUCH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. GUIDANCE DIFFERS NOT ONLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVES...BUT THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND BOUNDARIES AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...FROM THE 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF BOTH
TAF SITES. STRATUS AND FOG TO THE NORTH OF KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY AT KGLD. THE GUSTS TO NEAR 19 KNOTS
WILL STOP AT KGLD NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 031156
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
556 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MORE INSTABILITY IN THE COLUMN THAN I WAS ANTICIPATING. HAVE
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OCCURRING. SO UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCE AND THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. MODERATELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. AT MID
LEVELS...THE CANADIAN FOLLOWED BY THE GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND PRESSURE FIELD FOLLOWED BY
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS AREA NEAR 12Z. ALSO LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
DURING THE MORNING AND MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT THE VERY
LEAST IT WILL BE SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MORNING. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING SOMETHING A LITTLE UNUSUAL WHICH MODELS MAY NOT BE LATCHING
ONTO. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR WITH THIS AND IN FACT
WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. FOR YESTERDAY
THE GUIDANCE RAN A LITTLE COOL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE
BIASES AND THE AMOUNT OF RISE AT 850 MB OVER YESTERDAY...RAISED THE
MAXES SOME OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD
WARMEST DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN PER THE REASONING
GIVEN ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES ONCE AGAIN. INTERESTING AND TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE MINS. WIND FIELD GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION. FOR THAT REASON
TRENDED MINS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...DUE TO THOSE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ITS HOLD ON THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS...DESPITE THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE. CONTINUED THE
WARMING TREND OF THE MAXES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT I
STILL MAY BE A LITTLE COOL.

FOR THE NIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR
AND EXPECT VERY MILD MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM IS INDICATING
SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG. HOWEVER...AM NOT BUYING IT YET AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...RETURN MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HEADS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SITS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE. HOWEVER...MUCH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. GUIDANCE DIFFERS NOT ONLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVES...BUT THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND BOUNDARIES AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...FROM THE 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF BOTH
TAF SITES. STRATUS AND FOG TO THE NORTH OF KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY AT KGLD. THE GUSTS TO NEAR 19 KNOTS
WILL STOP AT KGLD NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 031141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. MODERATELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. AT MID
LEVELS...THE CANADIAN FOLLOWED BY THE GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND PRESSURE FIELD FOLLOWED BY
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS AREA NEAR 12Z. ALSO LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
DURING THE MORNING AND MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT THE VERY
LEAST IT WILL BE SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MORNING. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING SOMETHING A LITTLE UNUSUAL WHICH MODELS MAY NOT BE LATCHING
ONTO. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR WITH THIS AND IN FACT
WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. FOR YESTERDAY
THE GUIDANCE RAN A LITTLE COOL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE
BIASES AND THE AMOUNT OF RISE AT 850 MB OVER YESTERDAY...RAISED THE
MAXES SOME OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD
WARMEST DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN PER THE REASONING
GIVEN ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES ONCE AGAIN. INTERESTING AND TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE MINS. WIND FIELD GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION. FOR THAT REASON
TRENDED MINS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...DUE TO THOSE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ITS HOLD ON THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS...DESPITE THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE. CONTINUED THE
WARMING TREND OF THE MAXES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT I
STILL MAY BE A LITTLE COOL.

FOR THE NIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR
AND EXPECT VERY MILD MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM IS INDICATING
SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG. HOWEVER...AM NOT BUYING IT YET AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...RETURN MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HEADS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SITS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE. HOWEVER...MUCH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. GUIDANCE DIFFERS NOT ONLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVES...BUT THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND BOUNDARIES AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...FROM THE 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF BOTH
TAF SITES. STRATUS AND FOG TO THE NORTH OF KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY AT KGLD. THE GUSTS TO NEAR 19 KNOTS
WILL STOP AT KGLD NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030912
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
312 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. MODERATELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. AT MID
LEVELS...THE CANADIAN FOLLOWED BY THE GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND PRESSURE FIELD FOLLOWED BY
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS AREA NEAR 12Z. ALSO LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
DURING THE MORNING AND MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT THE VERY
LEAST IT WILL BE SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MORNING. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING SOMETHING A LITTLE UNUSUAL WHICH MODELS MAY NOT BE LATCHING
ONTO. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR WITH THIS AND IN FACT
WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. FOR YESTERDAY
THE GUIDANCE RAN A LITTLE COOL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE
BIASES AND THE AMOUNT OF RISE AT 850 MB OVER YESTERDAY...RAISED THE
MAXES SOME OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD
WARMEST DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN PER THE REASONING
GIVEN ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES ONCE AGAIN. INTERESTING AND TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE MINS. WIND FIELD GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION. FOR THAT REASON
TRENDED MINS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...DUE TO THOSE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ITS HOLD ON THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS...DESPITE THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE. CONTINUED THE
WARMING TREND OF THE MAXES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT I
STILL MAY BE A LITTLE COOL.

FOR THE NIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR
AND EXPECT VERY MILD MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM IS INDICATING
SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG. HOWEVER...AM NOT BUYING IT YET AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...RETURN MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HEADS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SITS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE. HOWEVER...MUCH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. GUIDANCE DIFFERS NOT ONLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVES...BUT THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND BOUNDARIES AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...FROM THE 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OVER KMCK DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF. KGLD WILL BE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN A BIT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY...MAINLY FOR KGLD...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030513
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MODEL DATA. DESPITE REFLECTIVITY WEAKENING AS THE WAVE OF RAINFALL
APPROACHES THE AREA...OBSERVATION SITES SHOW RAIN IS REACHING THE
GROUND. ANTICIPATE THE LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD
SUNRISE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE RAINFALL TO END
AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT
PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING
FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT
BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES ONCE AGAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT MOVE THE LOW ALONG. RATHER...INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW
STALLS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH ANY EXTENDED FORECAST...
SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTS PINPOINTING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INDICATE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE AN ISSUE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC DAYS 4-7 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS A TORNADO THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS ONE ITEM THAT COULD BUST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A COLD FRONT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY ON THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT (IN
ADDITION TO THE DRYLINE). IF FRONT ADVANCEMENT IS FASTER...PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD MORE LIKELY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OVER KMCK DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF. KGLD WILL BE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN A BIT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY...MAINLY FOR KGLD...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030448
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MODEL DATA. DESPITE REFLECTIVITY WEAKENING AS THE WAVE OF RAINFALL
APPROACHES THE AREA...OBSERVATION SITES SHOW RAIN IS REACHING THE
GROUND. ANTICIPATE THE LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD
SUNRISE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE RAINFALL TO END
AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT
PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING
FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT
BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES ONCE AGAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT MOVE THE LOW ALONG. RATHER...INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW
STALLS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH ANY EXTENDED FORECAST...
SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTS PINPOINTING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INDICATE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE AN ISSUE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC DAYS 4-7 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS A TORNADO THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS ONE ITEM THAT COULD BUST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A COLD FRONT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY ON THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT (IN
ADDITION TO THE DRYLINE). IF FRONT ADVANCEMENT IS FASTER...PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD MORE LIKELY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR DURING PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 6 TO 10KT AT BOTH LOCATIONS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z BEFORE BECOMING NNW AFTER 12Z AT 10 TO 12KT.
KGLD COULD SEE GUSTS OF NEAR 20KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...TL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030300
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT
PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING
FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT
BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES ONCE AGAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT MOVE THE LOW ALONG. RATHER...INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW
STALLS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH ANY EXTENDED FORECAST...
SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTS PINPOINTING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INDICATE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE AN ISSUE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC DAYS 4-7 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS A TORNADO THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS ONE ITEM THAT COULD BUST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A COLD FRONT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY ON THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT (IN
ADDITION TO THE DRYLINE). IF FRONT ADVANCEMENT IS FASTER...PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD MORE LIKELY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR DURING PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 6 TO 10KT AT BOTH LOCATIONS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z BEFORE BECOMING NNW AFTER 12Z AT 10 TO 12KT.
KGLD COULD SEE GUSTS OF NEAR 20KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...TL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030300
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT
PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING
FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT
BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES ONCE AGAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT MOVE THE LOW ALONG. RATHER...INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW
STALLS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH ANY EXTENDED FORECAST...
SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTS PINPOINTING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INDICATE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE AN ISSUE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC DAYS 4-7 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS A TORNADO THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS ONE ITEM THAT COULD BUST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A COLD FRONT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY ON THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT (IN
ADDITION TO THE DRYLINE). IF FRONT ADVANCEMENT IS FASTER...PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD MORE LIKELY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR DURING PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 6 TO 10KT AT BOTH LOCATIONS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z BEFORE BECOMING NNW AFTER 12Z AT 10 TO 12KT.
KGLD COULD SEE GUSTS OF NEAR 20KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...TL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 022331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA W/ JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE U50S TO L60S...WHICH ARE WELL OFF MORNING LOWS IN THE
U20S TO THE M30S. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR WNW
WINDS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE THRU THE
CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY
GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER
OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES ONCE AGAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT MOVE THE LOW ALONG. RATHER...INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW
STALLS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH ANY EXTENDED FORECAST...
SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTS PINPOINTING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INDICATE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE AN ISSUE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC DAYS 4-7 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS A TORNADO THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS ONE ITEM THAT COULD BUST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A COLD FRONT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY ON THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT (IN
ADDITION TO THE DRYLINE). IF FRONT ADVANCEMENT IS FASTER...PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD MORE LIKELY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR DURING PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 6 TO 10KT AT BOTH LOCATIONS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z BEFORE BECOMING NNW AFTER 12Z AT 10 TO 12KT.
KGLD COULD SEE GUSTS OF NEAR 20KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...TL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 022016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA W/ JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE U50S TO L60S...WHICH ARE WELL OFF MORNING LOWS IN THE
U20S TO THE M30S. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR WNW
WINDS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE THRU THE
CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY
GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER
OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES ONCE AGAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT MOVE THE LOW ALONG. RATHER...INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW
STALLS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH ANY EXTENDED FORECAST...
SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTS PINPOINTING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INDICATE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE AN ISSUE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC DAYS 4-7 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS A TORNADO THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS ONE ITEM THAT COULD BUST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A COLD FRONT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY ON THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT (IN
ADDITION TO THE DRYLINE). IF FRONT ADVANCEMENT IS FASTER...PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD MORE LIKELY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 08Z-1130Z TUESDAY...BKN050 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS BEFORE 03Z TUESDAY AND AFTER 1130Z TUESDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 03Z-08Z TUESDAY...BKN035 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z
TUESDAY...THEN NORTH 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 021955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA W/ JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE U50S TO L60S...WHICH ARE WELL OFF MORNING LOWS IN THE
U20S TO THE M30S. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR WNW
WINDS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE THRU THE
CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY
GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER
OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE
RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ADVANCING ONTO THE WEST COAST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SATURDAY AND PUSHES FURTHER TOWARDS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA AND A DRYLINE DEVELOPS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THIS SLOW MOVING LOW AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING IMPACTS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO COOL INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW ADVANCES. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL STAY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 08Z-1130Z TUESDAY...BKN050 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS BEFORE 03Z TUESDAY AND AFTER 1130Z TUESDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 03Z-08Z TUESDAY...BKN035 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z
TUESDAY...THEN NORTH 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 021733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN FORECAST.
LATEST HOURLY OBS SHOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WHERE FROST WAS
MENTIONED HAVE REBOUNDED UNDER FULL SUNSHINE TO U30S AND L40S. NO
OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND THE
AMOUNT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
NORTH AMERICA. THE STRONG AND COMPACT SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
JET...ESPECIALLY WITH THE JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AT MID LEVELS...OVERALL AND WITH
THE INCOMING SYSTEM THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN/UKMET/GFS. THE SREF LOOKED LIKE IT WAS DOING WELL WITH THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE CANADIAN WAS DOING BETTER THAN
THE OTHER OUTPUT IN REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
OTHER MODELS TENDING TO BE TOO WARM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...DESPITE THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...ANALYSIS AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
LATEST DATA AND MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES.

MAJORITY OF THE DATA SHOWS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. VERY STRONG AND
COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER GOOD
THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY/FORCING ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS. THE PARAMETERS TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LINE UP THE
BEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER.

SREF AND GEFS PROBABILITIES WOULD SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
AND THAT MATCHES UP WELL WITH WHERE THE BEST PARAMETERS LINE. SO
RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET AFFECTS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER THE BEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LIFT ARE ALREADY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO KEPT IT DRY BUT HAVE
HIGHER SILENT POPS.

CLOUDS CLEAR OUT RATHER FAST AND HAVE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AGAIN LATEST OUTPUT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND KEPT THE EXPECTED WARMING TREND IN PLACE WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY. TENDED TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH THE RIDGELINE STILL TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE WIND FIELD ONCE AGAIN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A VERY BIG WARMUP.
STILL SHOULD BE A DECENT WARMUP THOUGH. AGAIN LATEST DATA SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE
RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ADVANCING ONTO THE WEST COAST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SATURDAY AND PUSHES FURTHER TOWARDS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA AND A DRYLINE DEVELOPS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THIS SLOW MOVING LOW AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING IMPACTS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO COOL INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW ADVANCES. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL STAY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 08Z-1130Z TUESDAY...BKN050 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS BEFORE 03Z TUESDAY AND AFTER 1130Z TUESDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 03Z-08Z TUESDAY...BKN035 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z
TUESDAY...THEN NORTH 10-20KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN





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