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000
FXUS63 KGLD 030028
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY A FEW SMALL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT ARE CAUSING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
EARLY THIS EVENING...SO ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST THUNDERSTORM TRENDS. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
A CAPE AXIS THAT APPEARS TO FOLLOW HIGHWAY 83 WITH INCREASING
VALUES TO THE EAST...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY. WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE TO THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83...CURRENTLY EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
BEFORE TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN AREA OF SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS PRODUCED SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN RED WILLOW
COUNTY AROUND THE TERMINAL...WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM
REMAINING TO THE WEST...BUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT.  PART
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE WITHIN 5 MILES...THUS PUT -TSRA MENTION
FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND VCTS UNTIL 2Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030028
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY A FEW SMALL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT ARE CAUSING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
EARLY THIS EVENING...SO ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST THUNDERSTORM TRENDS. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
A CAPE AXIS THAT APPEARS TO FOLLOW HIGHWAY 83 WITH INCREASING
VALUES TO THE EAST...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY. WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE TO THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83...CURRENTLY EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
BEFORE TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN AREA OF SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS PRODUCED SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN RED WILLOW
COUNTY AROUND THE TERMINAL...WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM
REMAINING TO THE WEST...BUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT.  PART
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE WITHIN 5 MILES...THUS PUT -TSRA MENTION
FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND VCTS UNTIL 2Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 022331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN AREA OF SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS PRODUCED SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN RED WILLOW
COUNTY AROUND THE TERMINAL...WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM
REMAINING TO THE WEST...BUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT.  PART
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE WITHIN 5 MILES...THUS PUT -TSRA MENTION
FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND VCTS UNTIL 2Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 022331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN AREA OF SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS PRODUCED SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN RED WILLOW
COUNTY AROUND THE TERMINAL...WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM
REMAINING TO THE WEST...BUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT.  PART
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE WITHIN 5 MILES...THUS PUT -TSRA MENTION
FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND VCTS UNTIL 2Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 022026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 022026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 022026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 021919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 021919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 021919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 021919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 021713
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS STREAMS OVER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR
DATA INDICATES A LONE DECAYING SHOWER ENTERING NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
NEAR FORT COLLINS TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO IN AN ARC-LIKE FASHION.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE PACIFIC PERSISTS.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING IN TWO LOCATIONS...ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY. MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT AND THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED. DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS NOTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD
HAMPER INSTABILITY AND THUS STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE SUGGESTS A THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS. THEREFORE...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOVEMENTS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WOULD SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER...DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOWS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING AND LEAD TO QUICK THUNDERSTORM CYCLES. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TODAY.

TOMORROW...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD PASSES THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BUT HAVE DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT WITH EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THUS INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO AROUND
1.50-1.75 INCHES...INDICATING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINS. WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING. SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGHER END HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CALM DAY WEATHER-WISE AS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING SHOULD PRODUCE A RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IMPROVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SO STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 021713
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS STREAMS OVER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR
DATA INDICATES A LONE DECAYING SHOWER ENTERING NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
NEAR FORT COLLINS TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO IN AN ARC-LIKE FASHION.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE PACIFIC PERSISTS.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING IN TWO LOCATIONS...ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY. MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT AND THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED. DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS NOTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD
HAMPER INSTABILITY AND THUS STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE SUGGESTS A THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS. THEREFORE...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOVEMENTS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WOULD SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER...DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOWS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING AND LEAD TO QUICK THUNDERSTORM CYCLES. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TODAY.

TOMORROW...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD PASSES THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BUT HAVE DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT WITH EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THUS INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO AROUND
1.50-1.75 INCHES...INDICATING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINS. WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING. SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGHER END HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CALM DAY WEATHER-WISE AS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING SHOULD PRODUCE A RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IMPROVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SO STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 021132
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
532 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS STREAMS OVER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR
DATA INDICATES A LONE DECAYING SHOWER ENTERING NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
NEAR FORT COLLINS TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO IN AN ARC-LIKE FASHION.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE PACIFIC PERSISTS.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING IN TWO LOCATIONS...ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY. MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT AND THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED. DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS NOTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD
HAMPER INSTABILITY AND THUS STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE SUGGESTS A THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS. THEREFORE...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOVEMENTS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WOULD SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER...DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOWS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING AND LEAD TO QUICK THUNDERSTORM CYCLES. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TODAY.

TOMORROW...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD PASSES THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BUT HAVE DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT WITH EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THUS INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO AROUND
1.50-1.75 INCHES...INDICATING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINS. WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING. SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGHER END HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CALM DAY WEATHER-WISE AS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING SHOULD PRODUCE A RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IMPROVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SO STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT KGLD BUT PRESENTLY DO NOT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES SOAR AFTER SUNRISE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A LEE TROUGH IN
EAST COLORADO. STORMS MAY APPROACH KMCK BUT DUE TO ISOLATED
NATURE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 021132
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
532 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS STREAMS OVER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR
DATA INDICATES A LONE DECAYING SHOWER ENTERING NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
NEAR FORT COLLINS TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO IN AN ARC-LIKE FASHION.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE PACIFIC PERSISTS.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING IN TWO LOCATIONS...ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY. MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT AND THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED. DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS NOTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD
HAMPER INSTABILITY AND THUS STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE SUGGESTS A THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS. THEREFORE...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOVEMENTS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WOULD SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER...DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOWS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING AND LEAD TO QUICK THUNDERSTORM CYCLES. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TODAY.

TOMORROW...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD PASSES THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BUT HAVE DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT WITH EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THUS INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO AROUND
1.50-1.75 INCHES...INDICATING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINS. WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING. SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGHER END HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CALM DAY WEATHER-WISE AS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING SHOULD PRODUCE A RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IMPROVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SO STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT KGLD BUT PRESENTLY DO NOT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES SOAR AFTER SUNRISE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A LEE TROUGH IN
EAST COLORADO. STORMS MAY APPROACH KMCK BUT DUE TO ISOLATED
NATURE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020829
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS STREAMS OVER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR
DATA INDICATES A LONE DECAYING SHOWER ENTERING NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
NEAR FORT COLLINS TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO IN AN ARC-LIKE FASHION.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE PACIFIC PERSISTS.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING IN TWO LOCATIONS...ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY. MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT AND THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED. DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS NOTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD
HAMPER INSTABILITY AND THUS STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE SUGGESTS A THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS. THEREFORE...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOVEMENTS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WOULD SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER...DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOWS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING AND LEAD TO QUICK THUNDERSTORM CYCLES. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TODAY.

TOMORROW...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD PASSES THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BUT HAVE DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT WITH EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THUS INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO AROUND
1.50-1.75 INCHES...INDICATING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINS. WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING. SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGHER END HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CALM DAY WEATHER-WISE AS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING SHOULD PRODUCE A RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IMPROVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SO STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KMCK
AND KGLD.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE HIGH
PLAINS AREA...BUT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A HIGH LEVEL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 020829
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS STREAMS OVER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR
DATA INDICATES A LONE DECAYING SHOWER ENTERING NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
NEAR FORT COLLINS TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO IN AN ARC-LIKE FASHION.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE PACIFIC PERSISTS.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING IN TWO LOCATIONS...ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY. MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT AND THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED. DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS NOTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD
HAMPER INSTABILITY AND THUS STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE SUGGESTS A THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS. THEREFORE...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM MOVEMENTS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WOULD SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER...DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOWS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING AND LEAD TO QUICK THUNDERSTORM CYCLES. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TODAY.

TOMORROW...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD PASSES THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BUT HAVE DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT WITH EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THUS INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO AROUND
1.50-1.75 INCHES...INDICATING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINS. WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING. SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGHER END HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CALM DAY WEATHER-WISE AS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING SHOULD PRODUCE A RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IMPROVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SO STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KMCK
AND KGLD.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE HIGH
PLAINS AREA...BUT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A HIGH LEVEL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020520
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER EAST INTO
NW KANSAS CWA COULD ACT AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION....OTHERWISE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WOULD BE FROM EASTERN COLORADO WHERE WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL IS
DEPICTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD IN TRACK IN
RELATION TO OUR CWA. GFS SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED H5/H7 TROUGH
TRACKING OVER OUR CWA...AND A VERY STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL. NAM ON THE
OTHER EXTREME HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER OUR AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION (THOUGH THIS IS
DEPICTED AS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA WITH TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES).
THE SET UP SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DECENT RAINFALL (CONSIDERING HIGHER TDS/PWATS)...PROBLEM IS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND ACTUAL AMOUNTS. GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE MODEL OF CHOICE IF WE ARE LOOKING FOR
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA POSSIBLY STALLING OR LIFTING BACK
NORTH DEPENDING ON TRACK. CONSENSUS FAVORS COOLEST AIR MASS IN
PLACE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S (DEPENDING ON CLEARING).

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE REGARDING FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRING OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS AND OCCASIONAL
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KMCK
AND KGLD.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE HIGH
PLAINS AREA...BUT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A HIGH LEVEL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020520
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER EAST INTO
NW KANSAS CWA COULD ACT AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION....OTHERWISE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WOULD BE FROM EASTERN COLORADO WHERE WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL IS
DEPICTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD IN TRACK IN
RELATION TO OUR CWA. GFS SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED H5/H7 TROUGH
TRACKING OVER OUR CWA...AND A VERY STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL. NAM ON THE
OTHER EXTREME HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER OUR AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION (THOUGH THIS IS
DEPICTED AS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA WITH TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES).
THE SET UP SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DECENT RAINFALL (CONSIDERING HIGHER TDS/PWATS)...PROBLEM IS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND ACTUAL AMOUNTS. GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE MODEL OF CHOICE IF WE ARE LOOKING FOR
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA POSSIBLY STALLING OR LIFTING BACK
NORTH DEPENDING ON TRACK. CONSENSUS FAVORS COOLEST AIR MASS IN
PLACE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S (DEPENDING ON CLEARING).

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE REGARDING FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRING OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS AND OCCASIONAL
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KMCK
AND KGLD.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHIFTS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE HIGH
PLAINS AREA...BUT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A HIGH LEVEL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 012315
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER EAST INTO
NW KANSAS CWA COULD ACT AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION....OTHERWISE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WOULD BE FROM EASTERN COLORADO WHERE WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL IS
DEPICTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD IN TRACK IN
RELATION TO OUR CWA. GFS SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED H5/H7 TROUGH
TRACKING OVER OUR CWA...AND A VERY STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL. NAM ON THE
OTHER EXTREME HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER OUR AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION (THOUGH THIS IS
DEPICTED AS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA WITH TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES).
THE SET UP SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DECENT RAINFALL (CONSIDERING HIGHER TDS/PWATS)...PROBLEM IS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND ACTUAL AMOUNTS. GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE MODEL OF CHOICE IF WE ARE LOOKING FOR
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA POSSIBLY STALLING OR LIFTING BACK
NORTH DEPENDING ON TRACK. CONSENSUS FAVORS COOLEST AIR MASS IN
PLACE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S (DEPENDING ON CLEARING).

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE REGARDING FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRING OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS AND OCCASIONAL
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO A PARTLY
CLOUDY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK AT TIMES FOR KGLD DURING THIS
PERIOD. KMCK WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY MID
DECK CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND
GIVE WAY TO A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 012315
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER EAST INTO
NW KANSAS CWA COULD ACT AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION....OTHERWISE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WOULD BE FROM EASTERN COLORADO WHERE WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL IS
DEPICTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD IN TRACK IN
RELATION TO OUR CWA. GFS SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED H5/H7 TROUGH
TRACKING OVER OUR CWA...AND A VERY STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL. NAM ON THE
OTHER EXTREME HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER OUR AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION (THOUGH THIS IS
DEPICTED AS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA WITH TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES).
THE SET UP SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DECENT RAINFALL (CONSIDERING HIGHER TDS/PWATS)...PROBLEM IS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND ACTUAL AMOUNTS. GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE MODEL OF CHOICE IF WE ARE LOOKING FOR
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA POSSIBLY STALLING OR LIFTING BACK
NORTH DEPENDING ON TRACK. CONSENSUS FAVORS COOLEST AIR MASS IN
PLACE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S (DEPENDING ON CLEARING).

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE REGARDING FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRING OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS AND OCCASIONAL
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO A PARTLY
CLOUDY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK AT TIMES FOR KGLD DURING THIS
PERIOD. KMCK WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY MID
DECK CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND
GIVE WAY TO A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 012040
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER EAST INTO
NW KANSAS CWA COULD ACT AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION....OTHERWISE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WOULD BE FROM EASTERN COLORADO WHERE WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL IS
DEPICTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD IN TRACK IN
RELATION TO OUR CWA. GFS SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED H5/H7 TROUGH
TRACKING OVER OUR CWA...AND A VERY STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL. NAM ON THE
OTHER EXTREME HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER OUR AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION (THOUGH THIS IS
DEPICTED AS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA WITH TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES).
THE SET UP SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DECENT RAINFALL (CONSIDERING HIGHER TDS/PWATS)...PROBLEM IS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND ACTUAL AMOUNTS. GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE MODEL OF CHOICE IF WE ARE LOOKING FOR
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA POSSIBLY STALLING OR LIFTING BACK
NORTH DEPENDING ON TRACK. CONSENSUS FAVORS COOLEST AIR MASS IN
PLACE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S (DEPENDING ON CLEARING).

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE REGARDING FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRING OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS AND OCCASIONAL
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 012040
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER EAST INTO
NW KANSAS CWA COULD ACT AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION....OTHERWISE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WOULD BE FROM EASTERN COLORADO WHERE WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL IS
DEPICTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD IN TRACK IN
RELATION TO OUR CWA. GFS SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED H5/H7 TROUGH
TRACKING OVER OUR CWA...AND A VERY STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL. NAM ON THE
OTHER EXTREME HAS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER OUR AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION (THOUGH THIS IS
DEPICTED AS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA WITH TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES).
THE SET UP SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DECENT RAINFALL (CONSIDERING HIGHER TDS/PWATS)...PROBLEM IS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND ACTUAL AMOUNTS. GFS IS
CERTAINLY THE MODEL OF CHOICE IF WE ARE LOOKING FOR
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA POSSIBLY STALLING OR LIFTING BACK
NORTH DEPENDING ON TRACK. CONSENSUS FAVORS COOLEST AIR MASS IN
PLACE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S (DEPENDING ON CLEARING).

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE REGARDING FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRING OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS AND OCCASIONAL
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011931
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011931
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011931
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011931
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LONE COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUING OVER RED WILLOW AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO NORTON COUNTY KANSAS. A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALREADY NOTED LOWERED VISIBILITIES
NEAR SCOTT CITY WITH OAKLEY NEAR SATURATION. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
RAPIDLY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DRIFTING IN AS WITH RECENT
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR TOMORROW...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECENT BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS AXIS.

CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TODAY`S SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE BETTER WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY`S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INDICATES 20-30 KTS SO STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE WORSE SUNDAY. ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEAK
WINDS ALOFT INDICATE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REMAIN STATIONARY.

A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHILE MOST SIGNAL A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST COLORADO...SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THIS IS THE BEST RAIN CHANCE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE SO ANTICIPATE COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LONE COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUING OVER RED WILLOW AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO NORTON COUNTY KANSAS. A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALREADY NOTED LOWERED VISIBILITIES
NEAR SCOTT CITY WITH OAKLEY NEAR SATURATION. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
RAPIDLY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DRIFTING IN AS WITH RECENT
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR TOMORROW...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECENT BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS AXIS.

CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TODAY`S SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE BETTER WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY`S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INDICATES 20-30 KTS SO STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE WORSE SUNDAY. ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEAK
WINDS ALOFT INDICATE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REMAIN STATIONARY.

A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHILE MOST SIGNAL A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST COLORADO...SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THIS IS THE BEST RAIN CHANCE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE SO ANTICIPATE COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LONE COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUING OVER RED WILLOW AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO NORTON COUNTY KANSAS. A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALREADY NOTED LOWERED VISIBILITIES
NEAR SCOTT CITY WITH OAKLEY NEAR SATURATION. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
RAPIDLY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DRIFTING IN AS WITH RECENT
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR TOMORROW...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECENT BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS AXIS.

CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TODAY`S SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE BETTER WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY`S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INDICATES 20-30 KTS SO STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE WORSE SUNDAY. ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEAK
WINDS ALOFT INDICATE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REMAIN STATIONARY.

A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHILE MOST SIGNAL A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST COLORADO...SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THIS IS THE BEST RAIN CHANCE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE SO ANTICIPATE COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. MORNING FOG
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH TAF SITES. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND BACK
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...THEN VEER SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LONE COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUING OVER RED WILLOW AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO NORTON COUNTY KANSAS. A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALREADY NOTED LOWERED VISIBILITIES
NEAR SCOTT CITY WITH OAKLEY NEAR SATURATION. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
RAPIDLY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DRIFTING IN AS WITH RECENT
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR TOMORROW...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECENT BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS AXIS.

CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TODAY`S SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE BETTER WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY`S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INDICATES 20-30 KTS SO STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE WORSE SUNDAY. ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEAK
WINDS ALOFT INDICATE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REMAIN STATIONARY.

A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHILE MOST SIGNAL A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST COLORADO...SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THIS IS THE BEST RAIN CHANCE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE SO ANTICIPATE COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. MORNING FOG
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH TAF SITES. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND BACK
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...THEN VEER SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LONE COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUING OVER RED WILLOW AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO NORTON COUNTY KANSAS. A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALREADY NOTED LOWERED VISIBILITIES
NEAR SCOTT CITY WITH OAKLEY NEAR SATURATION. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
RAPIDLY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DRIFTING IN AS WITH RECENT
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR TOMORROW...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECENT BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS AXIS.

CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TODAY`S SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE BETTER WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY`S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INDICATES 20-30 KTS SO STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE WORSE SUNDAY. ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEAK
WINDS ALOFT INDICATE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REMAIN STATIONARY.

A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHILE MOST SIGNAL A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST COLORADO...SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THIS IS THE BEST RAIN CHANCE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE SO ANTICIPATE COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. MORNING FOG
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH TAF SITES. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND BACK
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...THEN VEER SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LONE COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUING OVER RED WILLOW AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO NORTON COUNTY KANSAS. A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALREADY NOTED LOWERED VISIBILITIES
NEAR SCOTT CITY WITH OAKLEY NEAR SATURATION. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
RAPIDLY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DRIFTING IN AS WITH RECENT
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR TOMORROW...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECENT BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS AXIS.

CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TODAY`S SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE BETTER WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY`S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INDICATES 20-30 KTS SO STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE WORSE SUNDAY. ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEAK
WINDS ALOFT INDICATE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REMAIN STATIONARY.

A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHILE MOST SIGNAL A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST COLORADO...SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THIS IS THE BEST RAIN CHANCE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE SO ANTICIPATE COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. MORNING FOG
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH TAF SITES. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND BACK
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...THEN VEER SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010914
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LONE COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUING OVER RED WILLOW AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO NORTON COUNTY KANSAS. A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALREADY NOTED LOWERED VISIBILITIES
NEAR SCOTT CITY WITH OAKLEY NEAR SATURATION. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
RAPIDLY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DRIFTING IN AS WITH RECENT
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR TOMORROW...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECENT BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS AXIS.

CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TODAY`S SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE BETTER WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY`S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INDICATES 20-30 KTS SO STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE WORSE SUNDAY. ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEAK
WINDS ALOFT INDICATE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REMAIN STATIONARY.

A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHILE MOST SIGNAL A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST COLORADO...SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THIS IS THE BEST RAIN CHANCE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE SO ANTICIPATE COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS...BUT WINDS WILL REDUCE TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010914
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LONE COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUING OVER RED WILLOW AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO NORTON COUNTY KANSAS. A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALREADY NOTED LOWERED VISIBILITIES
NEAR SCOTT CITY WITH OAKLEY NEAR SATURATION. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
RAPIDLY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DRIFTING IN AS WITH RECENT
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR TOMORROW...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECENT BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS AXIS.

CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TODAY`S SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE BETTER WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY`S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INDICATES 20-30 KTS SO STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE WORSE SUNDAY. ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEAK
WINDS ALOFT INDICATE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REMAIN STATIONARY.

A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHILE MOST SIGNAL A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST COLORADO...SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THIS IS THE BEST RAIN CHANCE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE SO ANTICIPATE COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS...BUT WINDS WILL REDUCE TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS...BUT WINDS WILL REDUCE TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS...BUT WINDS WILL REDUCE TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS...BUT WINDS WILL REDUCE TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS...BUT WINDS WILL REDUCE TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312339
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE GOODLAND AREA IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF STORM OUTFLOW THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO KGLD FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL...WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.  VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT AT KMCK WITH GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312339
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE GOODLAND AREA IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF STORM OUTFLOW THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO KGLD FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL...WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.  VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT AT KMCK WITH GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312339
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE GOODLAND AREA IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF STORM OUTFLOW THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO KGLD FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL...WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.  VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT AT KMCK WITH GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 312000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN AVIATION FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. I COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO MODEL SUPPORT SO I LEFT MENTION OUT.
OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN AVIATION FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. I COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO MODEL SUPPORT SO I LEFT MENTION OUT.
OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311941
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN AVIATION FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. I COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO MODEL SUPPORT SO I LEFT MENTION OUT.
OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311941
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN AVIATION FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. I COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO MODEL SUPPORT SO I LEFT MENTION OUT.
OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311719
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN AVIATION FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. I COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO MODEL SUPPORT SO I LEFT MENTION OUT.
OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311719
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN AVIATION FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. I COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO MODEL SUPPORT SO I LEFT MENTION OUT.
OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT KGLD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE
CLEARING. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT AS LOW AS
1/4SM AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT KGLD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE
CLEARING. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT AS LOW AS
1/4SM AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT KGLD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE
CLEARING. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT AS LOW AS
1/4SM AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE FOLLOWING A SOUTHWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH THE CLOUD COVER MOVING MORE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
MODELS INDICATE STORMS SHOULD HAVE ENDED...BUT STORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ALONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE 12 C 700 MB
ISOTHERM. AT THE CURRENT SPEED...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT MDT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT AS THE SMALL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. THE WRF MODELS SEEM TO
BE HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE MODE...HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION IN THE MODELS ARE 3-6 HOURS LATE IN DEVELOPMENT.
STORMS MAY DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL LEAVE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT MDT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS
DEPICTED OVER NW KANSAS WITH A STRONGER PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND STRONGER SIGNAL IN WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW TO NE TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH HIGHER TD VALUES (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S).
RAP/HRRR INDICATE CAP ALREADY WEAKENED...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO. GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SHOWS BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA. VERY WEAK LIFT IS IN PLACE
AND AT THIS POINT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME WAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH BEST FORCING
OUTSIDE OUR CWA...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE. I LIMITED POPS TO 15-24
RANGE (SLIGHT CHANCE). WITH WEAK SHEER PROFILES IN PLACE...LIMITED
FORCING...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY LESS THAN 7 C/KM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

FRIDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TO BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER OUR
CWA AND MAY ACT AS A FOCUS/INITIATION POINT FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS IN THE MORNING
OUTSIDE OUR CWA...WITH POSSIBLY LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. EFFECTIVE SHEER PROFILES AROUND 30KT AND CAPE VALUES 1500-
3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER LIKE TODAY
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND STILL SEASONAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. A FEW MID 90 TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK/KHLC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
REGION...AS MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONCERN
AMPLIFIED H5/H7 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
EXPECTING BROAD WNW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 700/500 MB WITH RIDGE TO OUR
WEST...WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 850 MB
TEMPS DO RANGE FROM +28C UP TO +33C DURING THIS TIME...WITH WARMEST
SET TO OCCUR WED/THURS...COINCIDING WITH RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP OVER
THE AREA. WITH THESE CONDITIONS...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DESPITE THE INCREASE TEMPS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING DOWN ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN SURFACE
FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY TRAILING SHORTWAVE. CURRENT GFS A BIT MORE IN-
LINE WITH LATEST ECMWF...MAKING CONFIDENCE A BIT STRONGER IN KEEPING
CHANCE POPS FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE PUSH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DOES PUT A BIT MORE EMPHASIS
FOR HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE CLOUD COVER WITH
THESE EVENTS COULD IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES AS WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE FOLLOWING A SOUTHWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH THE CLOUD COVER MOVING MORE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
MODELS INDICATE STORMS SHOULD HAVE ENDED...BUT STORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ALONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE 12 C 700 MB
ISOTHERM. AT THE CURRENT SPEED...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT MDT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT AS THE SMALL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. THE WRF MODELS SEEM TO
BE HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE MODE...HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION IN THE MODELS ARE 3-6 HOURS LATE IN DEVELOPMENT.
STORMS MAY DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL LEAVE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT MDT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS
DEPICTED OVER NW KANSAS WITH A STRONGER PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND STRONGER SIGNAL IN WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW TO NE TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH HIGHER TD VALUES (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S).
RAP/HRRR INDICATE CAP ALREADY WEAKENED...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO. GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SHOWS BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA. VERY WEAK LIFT IS IN PLACE
AND AT THIS POINT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME WAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH BEST FORCING
OUTSIDE OUR CWA...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE. I LIMITED POPS TO 15-24
RANGE (SLIGHT CHANCE). WITH WEAK SHEER PROFILES IN PLACE...LIMITED
FORCING...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY LESS THAN 7 C/KM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

FRIDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TO BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER OUR
CWA AND MAY ACT AS A FOCUS/INITIATION POINT FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS IN THE MORNING
OUTSIDE OUR CWA...WITH POSSIBLY LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. EFFECTIVE SHEER PROFILES AROUND 30KT AND CAPE VALUES 1500-
3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER LIKE TODAY
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND STILL SEASONAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. A FEW MID 90 TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK/KHLC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
REGION...AS MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONCERN
AMPLIFIED H5/H7 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
EXPECTING BROAD WNW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 700/500 MB WITH RIDGE TO OUR
WEST...WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 850 MB
TEMPS DO RANGE FROM +28C UP TO +33C DURING THIS TIME...WITH WARMEST
SET TO OCCUR WED/THURS...COINCIDING WITH RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP OVER
THE AREA. WITH THESE CONDITIONS...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DESPITE THE INCREASE TEMPS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING DOWN ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN SURFACE
FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY TRAILING SHORTWAVE. CURRENT GFS A BIT MORE IN-
LINE WITH LATEST ECMWF...MAKING CONFIDENCE A BIT STRONGER IN KEEPING
CHANCE POPS FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE PUSH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DOES PUT A BIT MORE EMPHASIS
FOR HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE CLOUD COVER WITH
THESE EVENTS COULD IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES AS WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE FOLLOWING A SOUTHWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH THE CLOUD COVER MOVING MORE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
MODELS INDICATE STORMS SHOULD HAVE ENDED...BUT STORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ALONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE 12 C 700 MB
ISOTHERM. AT THE CURRENT SPEED...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT MDT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT AS THE SMALL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. THE WRF MODELS SEEM TO
BE HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE MODE...HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION IN THE MODELS ARE 3-6 HOURS LATE IN DEVELOPMENT.
STORMS MAY DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL LEAVE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT MDT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS
DEPICTED OVER NW KANSAS WITH A STRONGER PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND STRONGER SIGNAL IN WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW TO NE TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH HIGHER TD VALUES (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S).
RAP/HRRR INDICATE CAP ALREADY WEAKENED...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO. GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SHOWS BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA. VERY WEAK LIFT IS IN PLACE
AND AT THIS POINT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME WAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH BEST FORCING
OUTSIDE OUR CWA...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE. I LIMITED POPS TO 15-24
RANGE (SLIGHT CHANCE). WITH WEAK SHEER PROFILES IN PLACE...LIMITED
FORCING...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY LESS THAN 7 C/KM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

FRIDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TO BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER OUR
CWA AND MAY ACT AS A FOCUS/INITIATION POINT FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS IN THE MORNING
OUTSIDE OUR CWA...WITH POSSIBLY LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. EFFECTIVE SHEER PROFILES AROUND 30KT AND CAPE VALUES 1500-
3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER LIKE TODAY
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND STILL SEASONAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. A FEW MID 90 TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK/KHLC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
REGION...AS MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONCERN
AMPLIFIED H5/H7 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
EXPECTING BROAD WNW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 700/500 MB WITH RIDGE TO OUR
WEST...WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 850 MB
TEMPS DO RANGE FROM +28C UP TO +33C DURING THIS TIME...WITH WARMEST
SET TO OCCUR WED/THURS...COINCIDING WITH RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP OVER
THE AREA. WITH THESE CONDITIONS...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DESPITE THE INCREASE TEMPS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING DOWN ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN SURFACE
FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY TRAILING SHORTWAVE. CURRENT GFS A BIT MORE IN-
LINE WITH LATEST ECMWF...MAKING CONFIDENCE A BIT STRONGER IN KEEPING
CHANCE POPS FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE PUSH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DOES PUT A BIT MORE EMPHASIS
FOR HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE CLOUD COVER WITH
THESE EVENTS COULD IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES AS WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK




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