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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. FIRST THING WAS TO RAISE MAXES.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT DID WELL YESTERDAY IS CATCHING THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO RUNNING COOL AGAIN AS IT HAS
DONE HERE RECENTLY. SKY COVER AND POSSIBLE FOG FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT PROBLEM.

CURRENT MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER IS LEAVING AS EXPECTED. LARGE AREA
OF LOW CLOUD COVER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE RAP AND HRRR
APPEAR TO BE CATCHING THIS BEST. THOSE MODELS BRING NOT ONLY
STRATUS BUT SOME FOG AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID
INCREASE SKY COVER BUT HAVE NOT ADDED ANY FOG YET. WOULD LIKE TO
WATCH TRENDS FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE ADDING THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.

REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.

TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING  THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS  START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH  WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
KMCK. A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF TH MODELS BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
OR LOWER INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE OUTPUT BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST...CLOSE TO KMCK...WHILE OTHERS
KEEP TO THE EAST OF THE SITE. SO INSERTED A SCATTERED LOW DECK AND
WILL CONTINUE MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211654
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
954 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. FIRST THING WAS TO RAISE MAXES.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT DID WELL YESTERDAY IS CATCHING THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO RUNNING COOL AGAIN AS IT HAS
DONE HERE RECENTLY. SKY COVER AND POSSIBLE FOG FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT PROBLEM.

CURRENT MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER IS LEAVING AS EXPECTED. LARGE AREA
OF LOW CLOUD COVER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE RAP AND HRRR
APPEAR TO BE CATCHING THIS BEST. THOSE MODELS BRING NOT ONLY
STRATUS BUT SOME FOG AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID
INCREASE SKY COVER BUT HAVE NOT ADDED ANY FOG YET. WOULD LIKE TO
WATCH TRENDS FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE ADDING THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.

REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.

TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING  THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS  START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH  WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
COOLING AND KEPT LOW LEVELS FROM SATURATING DESPITE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AT KGLD AROUND
SUNRISE MAY SUPPORT COOLING TEMPS...SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT
WOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED THIS MORNING LIMITING LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TAFS. WINDS DURING THE DAY MAY GUST TO 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...MAINLY AT KGLD. WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BEGIN TO THE
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KGLD AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211654
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
954 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. FIRST THING WAS TO RAISE MAXES.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT DID WELL YESTERDAY IS CATCHING THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO RUNNING COOL AGAIN AS IT HAS
DONE HERE RECENTLY. SKY COVER AND POSSIBLE FOG FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT PROBLEM.

CURRENT MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER IS LEAVING AS EXPECTED. LARGE AREA
OF LOW CLOUD COVER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE RAP AND HRRR
APPEAR TO BE CATCHING THIS BEST. THOSE MODELS BRING NOT ONLY
STRATUS BUT SOME FOG AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID
INCREASE SKY COVER BUT HAVE NOT ADDED ANY FOG YET. WOULD LIKE TO
WATCH TRENDS FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE ADDING THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.

REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.

TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING  THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS  START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH  WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
COOLING AND KEPT LOW LEVELS FROM SATURATING DESPITE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AT KGLD AROUND
SUNRISE MAY SUPPORT COOLING TEMPS...SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT
WOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED THIS MORNING LIMITING LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TAFS. WINDS DURING THE DAY MAY GUST TO 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...MAINLY AT KGLD. WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BEGIN TO THE
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KGLD AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211126
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.

REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.

TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING  THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS  START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH  WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
COOLING AND KEPT LOW LEVELS FROM SATURATING DESPITE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AT KGLD AROUND
SUNRISE MAY SUPPORT COOLING TEMPS...SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT
WOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED THIS MORNING LIMITING LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TAFS. WINDS DURING THE DAY MAY GUST TO 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...MAINLY AT KGLD. WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BEGIN TO THE
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KGLD AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211126
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.

REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.

TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING  THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS  START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH  WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
COOLING AND KEPT LOW LEVELS FROM SATURATING DESPITE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AT KGLD AROUND
SUNRISE MAY SUPPORT COOLING TEMPS...SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT
WOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED THIS MORNING LIMITING LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TAFS. WINDS DURING THE DAY MAY GUST TO 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...MAINLY AT KGLD. WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BEGIN TO THE
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KGLD AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 210919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.

REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.

TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING  THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS  START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH  WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN150-250. WINDS WILL MEANDER FROM SSE TO THE S AT 5-10KTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BECOMING SSW 5-10KTS AFT 07Z.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 09Z WITH BKN150-200...THEN 5SM IN
FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW MORNING. AFT 15Z FRIDAY...SCT-
BKN150. WINDS SE 5-10KTS BECOMING SOUTH BY 15Z THEN SW BY 00Z
SATURDAY AROUND 5KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.

REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.

TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING  THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS  START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH  WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN150-250. WINDS WILL MEANDER FROM SSE TO THE S AT 5-10KTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BECOMING SSW 5-10KTS AFT 07Z.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 09Z WITH BKN150-200...THEN 5SM IN
FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW MORNING. AFT 15Z FRIDAY...SCT-
BKN150. WINDS SE 5-10KTS BECOMING SOUTH BY 15Z THEN SW BY 00Z
SATURDAY AROUND 5KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 210526
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 30S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
MIX. WESTERN ZONES CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL
DECK CONTINUES TO TRUDGE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT TREND
SHOULD HAVE ALL ZONES MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. OTHER ISSUE FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS CURRENTLY THERE ESE BUT WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLDER LAND...SOME FOG POSSIBLE. LATEST BUFKIT RUN
DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING AROUND 06Z FRIDAY FOR HILL
CITY. SO...WILL KEEP MENTION IN FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG
FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN150-250. WINDS WILL MEANDER FROM SSE TO THE S AT 5-10KTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BECOMING SSW 5-10KTS AFT 07Z.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 09Z WITH BKN150-200...THEN 5SM IN
FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW MORNING. AFT 15Z FRIDAY...SCT-
BKN150. WINDS SE 5-10KTS BECOMING SOUTH BY 15Z THEN SW BY 00Z
SATURDAY AROUND 5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 210526
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 30S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
MIX. WESTERN ZONES CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL
DECK CONTINUES TO TRUDGE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT TREND
SHOULD HAVE ALL ZONES MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. OTHER ISSUE FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS CURRENTLY THERE ESE BUT WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLDER LAND...SOME FOG POSSIBLE. LATEST BUFKIT RUN
DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING AROUND 06Z FRIDAY FOR HILL
CITY. SO...WILL KEEP MENTION IN FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG
FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN150-250. WINDS WILL MEANDER FROM SSE TO THE S AT 5-10KTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BECOMING SSW 5-10KTS AFT 07Z.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 09Z WITH BKN150-200...THEN 5SM IN
FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW MORNING. AFT 15Z FRIDAY...SCT-
BKN150. WINDS SE 5-10KTS BECOMING SOUTH BY 15Z THEN SW BY 00Z
SATURDAY AROUND 5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210319
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
819 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 30S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
MIX. WESTERN ZONES CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL
DECK CONTINUES TO TRUDGE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT TREND
SHOULD HAVE ALL ZONES MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. OTHER ISSUE FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS CURRENTLY THERE ESE BUT WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLDER LAND...SOME FOG POSSIBLE. LATEST BUFKIT RUN
DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING AROUND 06Z FRIDAY FOR HILL
CITY. SO...WILL KEEP MENTION IN FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG
FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN120-250. KMCK MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR FOG
AROUND 5SM FROM 07Z-15Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS FOR BOTH
SITES...SHIFTING SSE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210319
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
819 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 30S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
MIX. WESTERN ZONES CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL
DECK CONTINUES TO TRUDGE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT TREND
SHOULD HAVE ALL ZONES MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. OTHER ISSUE FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS CURRENTLY THERE ESE BUT WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLDER LAND...SOME FOG POSSIBLE. LATEST BUFKIT RUN
DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING AROUND 06Z FRIDAY FOR HILL
CITY. SO...WILL KEEP MENTION IN FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG
FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN120-250. KMCK MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR FOG
AROUND 5SM FROM 07Z-15Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS FOR BOTH
SITES...SHIFTING SSE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 210043
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES SENT OUT TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMP TRENDS WITH SUNSET
NOW UPON THE CWA. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH INFLUX OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS TO SEE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TEMP-WISE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR EASTERN ZONES FOR POTENTIAL OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN120-250. KMCK MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR FOG
AROUND 5SM FROM 07Z-15Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS FOR BOTH
SITES...SHIFTING SSE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210043
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES SENT OUT TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMP TRENDS WITH SUNSET
NOW UPON THE CWA. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH INFLUX OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS TO SEE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TEMP-WISE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR EASTERN ZONES FOR POTENTIAL OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN120-250. KMCK MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR FOG
AROUND 5SM FROM 07Z-15Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS FOR BOTH
SITES...SHIFTING SSE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 202338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN120-250. KMCK MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR FOG
AROUND 5SM FROM 07Z-15Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS FOR BOTH
SITES...SHIFTING SSE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 202338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN120-250. KMCK MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR FOG
AROUND 5SM FROM 07Z-15Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS FOR BOTH
SITES...SHIFTING SSE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 202202
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE WITH
THE AMOUNT AND WHERE TO EXACTLY PUT IT.

AT THIS TIME THE BRUNT OF THE INCREASE AND THE RESULTING STRATUS
AND FOG LOOK TO BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH KMCK HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEE A SCATTERED LOW DECK. THE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT KMCK
MAY SEE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 202202
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE WITH
THE AMOUNT AND WHERE TO EXACTLY PUT IT.

AT THIS TIME THE BRUNT OF THE INCREASE AND THE RESULTING STRATUS
AND FOG LOOK TO BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH KMCK HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEE A SCATTERED LOW DECK. THE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT KMCK
MAY SEE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 202059
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE WITH
THE AMOUNT AND WHERE TO EXACTLY PUT IT.

AT THIS TIME THE BRUNT OF THE INCREASE AND THE RESULTING STRATUS
AND FOG LOOK TO BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH KMCK HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEE A SCATTERED LOW DECK. THE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT KMCK
MAY SEE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 202059
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE WITH
THE AMOUNT AND WHERE TO EXACTLY PUT IT.

AT THIS TIME THE BRUNT OF THE INCREASE AND THE RESULTING STRATUS
AND FOG LOOK TO BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH KMCK HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEE A SCATTERED LOW DECK. THE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT KMCK
MAY SEE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 201741
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE WITH
THE AMOUNT AND WHERE TO EXACTLY PUT IT.

AT THIS TIME THE BRUNT OF THE INCREASE AND THE RESULTING STRATUS
AND FOG LOOK TO BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH KMCK HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEE A SCATTERED LOW DECK. THE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT KMCK
MAY SEE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 201741
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE WITH
THE AMOUNT AND WHERE TO EXACTLY PUT IT.

AT THIS TIME THE BRUNT OF THE INCREASE AND THE RESULTING STRATUS
AND FOG LOOK TO BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH KMCK HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEE A SCATTERED LOW DECK. THE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT KMCK
MAY SEE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 201123
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
423 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
09-10Z TONIGHT. WHILE FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
10-12Z TIME PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR WELL MIXED BL I DECIDED TO MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS
APPEARS TO BE AT KMCK WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH
WINDS EVENTUALLY BACKING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 201123
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
423 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
09-10Z TONIGHT. WHILE FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
10-12Z TIME PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR WELL MIXED BL I DECIDED TO MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS
APPEARS TO BE AT KMCK WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH
WINDS EVENTUALLY BACKING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 200902
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING CIRRUS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR SW
WINDS TONIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 200902
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING CIRRUS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR SW
WINDS TONIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 200502
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
955 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH TOMORROW.  WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS
OUT OVER THE AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
TO UPPER TEENS IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS 850 TEMPERATURE WARM SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.  DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS IN ON A SERIES OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST MOVES EAST WITH THE FIRST TROUGH IN THE SERIES MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING UP FROM
THE GULF TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN DEPICTING AN AREA OF FREEZING
FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TO BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY AS THE MUCH DRYER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT AND THE
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SHALLOWER AND LESS
LIKELY TO SATURATE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS HUNG
ONTO A MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD AID
IN SATURATION...BUT HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF NOW SHOWING A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE COLD AIR MOVES OUT.

WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
TRANSITION TO A SURFACE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED
REACH INTO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY. PERIODIC INCREASES
IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THEY TRANSITION QUICKLY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING CIRRUS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR SW
WINDS TONIGHT AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 200502
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
955 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH TOMORROW.  WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS
OUT OVER THE AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
TO UPPER TEENS IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS 850 TEMPERATURE WARM SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.  DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS IN ON A SERIES OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST MOVES EAST WITH THE FIRST TROUGH IN THE SERIES MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING UP FROM
THE GULF TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN DEPICTING AN AREA OF FREEZING
FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TO BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY AS THE MUCH DRYER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT AND THE
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SHALLOWER AND LESS
LIKELY TO SATURATE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS HUNG
ONTO A MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD AID
IN SATURATION...BUT HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF NOW SHOWING A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE COLD AIR MOVES OUT.

WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
TRANSITION TO A SURFACE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED
REACH INTO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY. PERIODIC INCREASES
IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THEY TRANSITION QUICKLY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING CIRRUS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR SW
WINDS TONIGHT AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 200003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH TOMORROW.  WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS
OUT OVER THE AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
TO UPPER TEENS IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS 850 TEMPERATURE WARM SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.  DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS IN ON A SERIES OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST MOVES EAST WITH THE FIRST TROUGH IN THE SERIES MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING UP FROM
THE GULF TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN DEPICTING AN AREA OF FREEZING
FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TO BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY AS THE MUCH DRYER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT AND THE
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SHALLOWER AND LESS
LIKELY TO SATURATE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS HUNG
ONTO A MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD AID
IN SATURATION...BUT HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF NOW SHOWING A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE COLD AIR MOVES OUT.

WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
TRANSITION TO A SURFACE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED
REACH INTO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY. PERIODIC INCREASES
IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THEY TRANSITION QUICKLY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT TRENDING TOWARD LIGHT NORTH
THURSDAY. VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 192135
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH TOMORROW.  WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS
OUT OVER THE AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
TO UPPER TEENS IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS 850 TEMPERATURE WARM SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.  DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS IN ON A SERIES OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST MOVES EAST WITH THE FIRST TROUGH IN THE SERIES MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING UP FROM
THE GULF TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN DEPICTING AN AREA OF FREEZING
FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TO BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY AS THE MUCH DRYER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT AND THE
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SHALLOWER AND LESS
LIKELY TO SATURATE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS HUNG
ONTO A MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD AID
IN SATURATION...BUT HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF NOW SHOWING A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE COLD AIR MOVES OUT.

WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
TRANSITION TO A SURFACE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED
REACH INTO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY. PERIODIC INCREASES
IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THEY TRANSITION QUICKLY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 192135
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH TOMORROW.  WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS
OUT OVER THE AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
TO UPPER TEENS IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS 850 TEMPERATURE WARM SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.  DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS IN ON A SERIES OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST MOVES EAST WITH THE FIRST TROUGH IN THE SERIES MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING UP FROM
THE GULF TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN DEPICTING AN AREA OF FREEZING
FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TO BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY AS THE MUCH DRYER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT AND THE
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SHALLOWER AND LESS
LIKELY TO SATURATE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS HUNG
ONTO A MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD AID
IN SATURATION...BUT HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF NOW SHOWING A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE COLD AIR MOVES OUT.

WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
TRANSITION TO A SURFACE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED
REACH INTO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY. PERIODIC INCREASES
IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THEY TRANSITION QUICKLY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 191709
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1009 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.

AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS. I AM
CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT DIURNAL
WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP. ANY
FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.

MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 191709
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1009 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.

AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS. I AM
CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT DIURNAL
WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP. ANY
FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.

MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 191122
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
422 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.

AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS.
I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT
DIURNAL WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.

MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH ISNT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. 12-18 KFT
AGL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER BOTH TERMINALS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TODAY. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL LIKELY
DECREASE AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER SW
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER ALL OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS BETTER BL MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF KMCK. THOUGH UPDATED SNOW
FIELD APPEARS TO BE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT THAN 00Z...I STILL DO NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING VFR. I HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS OUT OF KMCK TAF DURING THIS UPDATE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 190919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.

AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS.
I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT
DIURNAL WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.

MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH ISNT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE RIDGE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 190919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.

AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS.
I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT
DIURNAL WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.

MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH ISNT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE RIDGE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 190524
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES IS SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...THE LOWEST 50-75MB IS AT OR
NEAR SATURATION WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 96 PERCENT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-15Z FRIDAY. ABOVE THAT LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES RAPIDLY AND REMAINS DRY UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. WITH SUCH A
DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT AND ONLY SEEING SATURATED CONDITIONS IN A
LAYER LESS THAN 100MB DEEP AT THE SURFACE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THAT
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 190524
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES IS SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...THE LOWEST 50-75MB IS AT OR
NEAR SATURATION WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 96 PERCENT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-15Z FRIDAY. ABOVE THAT LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES RAPIDLY AND REMAINS DRY UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. WITH SUCH A
DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT AND ONLY SEEING SATURATED CONDITIONS IN A
LAYER LESS THAN 100MB DEEP AT THE SURFACE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THAT
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 182321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES IS SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...THE LOWEST 50-75MB IS AT OR
NEAR SATURATION WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 96 PERCENT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-15Z FRIDAY. ABOVE THAT LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES RAPIDLY AND REMAINS DRY UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. WITH SUCH A
DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT AND ONLY SEEING SATURATED CONDITIONS IN A
LAYER LESS THAN 100MB DEEP AT THE SURFACE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THAT
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 419 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 182321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES IS SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...THE LOWEST 50-75MB IS AT OR
NEAR SATURATION WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 96 PERCENT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-15Z FRIDAY. ABOVE THAT LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES RAPIDLY AND REMAINS DRY UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. WITH SUCH A
DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT AND ONLY SEEING SATURATED CONDITIONS IN A
LAYER LESS THAN 100MB DEEP AT THE SURFACE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THAT
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 419 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 182159
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES IS SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...THE LOWEST 50-75MB IS AT OR
NEAR SATURATION WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 96 PERCENT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-15Z FRIDAY. ABOVE THAT LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES RAPIDLY AND REMAINS DRY UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. WITH SUCH A
DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT AND ONLY SEEING SATURATED CONDITIONS IN A
LAYER LESS THAN 100MB DEEP AT THE SURFACE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THAT
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
25 KTS IS POSSIBLE AT KMCK...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO
LACK OF ANY LONG DURATION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 182159
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES IS SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...THE LOWEST 50-75MB IS AT OR
NEAR SATURATION WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 96 PERCENT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-15Z FRIDAY. ABOVE THAT LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES RAPIDLY AND REMAINS DRY UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. WITH SUCH A
DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT AND ONLY SEEING SATURATED CONDITIONS IN A
LAYER LESS THAN 100MB DEEP AT THE SURFACE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THAT
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
25 KTS IS POSSIBLE AT KMCK...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO
LACK OF ANY LONG DURATION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 182159
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES IS SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...THE LOWEST 50-75MB IS AT OR
NEAR SATURATION WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 96 PERCENT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-15Z FRIDAY. ABOVE THAT LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES RAPIDLY AND REMAINS DRY UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. WITH SUCH A
DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT AND ONLY SEEING SATURATED CONDITIONS IN A
LAYER LESS THAN 100MB DEEP AT THE SURFACE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THAT
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
25 KTS IS POSSIBLE AT KMCK...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO
LACK OF ANY LONG DURATION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 182159
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES IS SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...THE LOWEST 50-75MB IS AT OR
NEAR SATURATION WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 96 PERCENT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-15Z FRIDAY. ABOVE THAT LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES RAPIDLY AND REMAINS DRY UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. WITH SUCH A
DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT AND ONLY SEEING SATURATED CONDITIONS IN A
LAYER LESS THAN 100MB DEEP AT THE SURFACE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THAT
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
25 KTS IS POSSIBLE AT KMCK...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO
LACK OF ANY LONG DURATION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 182049
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST FOLLOWED BY
A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE JET STREAM
OUTLINING THIS TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

ON SUNDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST THE JET
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO WILL PASS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA
ON SUNDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. THE NAVGEM IS DRY WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF EACH HAS A
REALLY SMALL POCKET OF MOISTURE OVER THE CWA SOUTHWESTERN BOARDER.
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
SILENT POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE ORIENTATION AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 50S ON SATURDAY BEFORE THEY
START COOLING OFF ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WE ARE LOOKING AT MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
25 KTS IS POSSIBLE AT KMCK...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO
LACK OF ANY LONG DURATION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BDW/99
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 182049
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST FOLLOWED BY
A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE JET STREAM
OUTLINING THIS TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

ON SUNDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST THE JET
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO WILL PASS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA
ON SUNDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. THE NAVGEM IS DRY WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF EACH HAS A
REALLY SMALL POCKET OF MOISTURE OVER THE CWA SOUTHWESTERN BOARDER.
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
SILENT POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE ORIENTATION AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 50S ON SATURDAY BEFORE THEY
START COOLING OFF ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WE ARE LOOKING AT MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
25 KTS IS POSSIBLE AT KMCK...HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO
LACK OF ANY LONG DURATION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BDW/99
AVIATION...MK





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