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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270553
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION VARIED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AND IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ON A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WSR-88D RADAR DATA HAS NOTED A DOWNWARD
TREND IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES AS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
DECREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION BEST SO HAVE LEANED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LOSES SATURATION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION. THAT TREND IS ALREADY BEING REALIZED. RAP
SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE ONE MORE PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
DESATURATES. ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS UP AND DOWN TREND WITH THE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN FORECAST DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BECOMES QUITE DRY BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO SHALL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WARM 850 MB TEMPS ALSO ADVECT IN SO EXPECTING A WARM...ABOVE NORMAL
DAY. ONE THING THAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT TOMORROW IS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE MAY
PREVENT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALOFT FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE
SURFACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO
AND SHERMAN...WALLACE...GREELEY AND POSSIBLY WICHITA COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. OVERALL...KEPT FORECAST WINDS LIGHT BUT NERVOUS ABOUT
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. IF WINDS ARE REALIZED...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EAST AND THE LEE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270553
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION VARIED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AND IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ON A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WSR-88D RADAR DATA HAS NOTED A DOWNWARD
TREND IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES AS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
DECREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION BEST SO HAVE LEANED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LOSES SATURATION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION. THAT TREND IS ALREADY BEING REALIZED. RAP
SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE ONE MORE PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
DESATURATES. ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS UP AND DOWN TREND WITH THE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN FORECAST DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BECOMES QUITE DRY BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO SHALL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WARM 850 MB TEMPS ALSO ADVECT IN SO EXPECTING A WARM...ABOVE NORMAL
DAY. ONE THING THAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT TOMORROW IS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE MAY
PREVENT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALOFT FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE
SURFACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO
AND SHERMAN...WALLACE...GREELEY AND POSSIBLY WICHITA COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. OVERALL...KEPT FORECAST WINDS LIGHT BUT NERVOUS ABOUT
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. IF WINDS ARE REALIZED...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES EAST AND THE LEE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270115
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION VARIED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AND IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ON A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WSR-88D RADAR DATA HAS NOTED A DOWNWARD
TREND IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES AS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
DECREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION BEST SO HAVE LEANED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LOSES SATURATION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION. THAT TREND IS ALREADY BEING REALIZED. RAP
SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE ONE MORE PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
DESATURATES. ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS UP AND DOWN TREND WITH THE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN FORECAST DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BECOMES QUITE DRY BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO SHALL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WARM 850 MB TEMPS ALSO ADVECT IN SO EXPECTING A WARM...ABOVE NORMAL
DAY. ONE THING THAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT TOMORROW IS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE MAY
PREVENT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALOFT FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE
SURFACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO
AND SHERMAN...WALLACE...GREELEY AND POSSIBLY WICHITA COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. OVERALL...KEPT FORECAST WINDS LIGHT BUT NERVOUS ABOUT
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. IF WINDS ARE REALIZED...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT GLD AND SOUTH AT MCK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 262023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
123 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION VARIED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AND IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ON A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WSR-88D RADAR DATA HAS NOTED A DOWNWARD
TREND IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES AS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
DECREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION BEST SO HAVE LEANED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LOSES SATURATION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION. THAT TREND IS ALREADY BEING REALIZED. RAP
SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE ONE MORE PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
DESATURATES. ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS UP AND DOWN TREND WITH THE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN FORECAST DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BECOMES QUITE DRY BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO SHALL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WARM 850 MB TEMPS ALSO ADVECT IN SO EXPECTING A WARM...ABOVE NORMAL
DAY. ONE THING THAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT TOMORROW IS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE MAY
PREVENT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALOFT FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE
SURFACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO
AND SHERMAN...WALLACE...GREELEY AND POSSIBLY WICHITA COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. OVERALL...KEPT FORECAST WINDS LIGHT BUT NERVOUS ABOUT
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. IF WINDS ARE REALIZED...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS WITH SOME SNOW IS MOVING TOWARDS KGLD AT
1700Z. MVFR STRATUS HAS REACHED TAF SITE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW. CEILINGS AT KGLD SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 2100Z. CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT REACHES KMCK THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NO SNOW ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN TODAY AND AFTER A
PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
KGLD AND SOUTH AT KMCK AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
123 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION VARIED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AND IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ON A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WSR-88D RADAR DATA HAS NOTED A DOWNWARD
TREND IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES AS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
DECREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION BEST SO HAVE LEANED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LOSES SATURATION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION. THAT TREND IS ALREADY BEING REALIZED. RAP
SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE ONE MORE PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
DESATURATES. ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS UP AND DOWN TREND WITH THE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN FORECAST DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BECOMES QUITE DRY BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO SHALL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WARM 850 MB TEMPS ALSO ADVECT IN SO EXPECTING A WARM...ABOVE NORMAL
DAY. ONE THING THAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT TOMORROW IS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE MAY
PREVENT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALOFT FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE
SURFACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO
AND SHERMAN...WALLACE...GREELEY AND POSSIBLY WICHITA COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. OVERALL...KEPT FORECAST WINDS LIGHT BUT NERVOUS ABOUT
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. IF WINDS ARE REALIZED...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS WITH SOME SNOW IS MOVING TOWARDS KGLD AT
1700Z. MVFR STRATUS HAS REACHED TAF SITE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW. CEILINGS AT KGLD SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 2100Z. CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT REACHES KMCK THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NO SNOW ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN TODAY AND AFTER A
PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
KGLD AND SOUTH AT KMCK AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON AN
ANALYSIS OF FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS...SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A LAYER OF DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF/SNOW GRIDS. EARLIER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH
ICY ROADS SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE AS SOME SUN HAS REACHED THE
GROUND AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES ANTICIPATE THE
SNOWFALL TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMPLETELY WEST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BREAKUP AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA TODAY BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY TOO
LARGE FOR ANY PRECIP. TO BE GENERATED FROM THE MEAGER LIFT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE
COOLED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS WITH SOME SNOW IS MOVING TOWARDS KGLD AT
1700Z. MVFR STRATUS HAS REACHED TAF SITE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW. CEILINGS AT KGLD SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 2100Z. CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT REACHES KMCK THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NO SNOW ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN TODAY AND AFTER A
PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
KGLD AND SOUTH AT KMCK AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON AN
ANALYSIS OF FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS...SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A LAYER OF DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF/SNOW GRIDS. EARLIER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH
ICY ROADS SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE AS SOME SUN HAS REACHED THE
GROUND AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES ANTICIPATE THE
SNOWFALL TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMPLETELY WEST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BREAKUP AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA TODAY BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY TOO
LARGE FOR ANY PRECIP. TO BE GENERATED FROM THE MEAGER LIFT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE
COOLED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS WITH SOME SNOW IS MOVING TOWARDS KGLD AT
1700Z. MVFR STRATUS HAS REACHED TAF SITE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW. CEILINGS AT KGLD SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 2100Z. CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT REACHES KMCK THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NO SNOW ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN TODAY AND AFTER A
PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
KGLD AND SOUTH AT KMCK AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261728
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON AN
ANALYSIS OF FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS...SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A LAYER OF DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF/SNOW GRIDS. EARLIER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH
ICY ROADS SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE AS SOME SUN HAS REACHED THE
GROUND AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES ANTICIPATE THE
SNOWFALL TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMPLETELY WEST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BREAKUP AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA TODAY BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY TOO
LARGE FOR ANY PRECIP. TO BE GENERATED FROM THE MEAGER LIFT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE
COOLED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM
MST WED NOV 26 2014

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER
THE AREA...BUT DUE TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS WITH EACH TROUGH PASSAGE.

ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  A RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
DRY AND MILD THROUGH THIS PERIOD SINCE THE RIDGE WILL SHUNT STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARMUP TO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS WITH SOME SNOW IS MOVING TOWARDS KGLD AT
1700Z. MVFR STRATUS HAS REACHED TAF SITE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW. CEILINGS AT KGLD SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 2100Z. CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT REACHES KMCK THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NO SNOW ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN TODAY AND AFTER A
PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
KGLD AND SOUTH AT KMCK AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261129
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
429 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES ANTICIPATE THE
SNOWFALL TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMPLETELY WEST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BREAKUP AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA TODAY BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY TOO
LARGE FOR ANY PRECIP. TO BE GENERATED FROM THE MEAGER LIFT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE
COOLED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM
MST WED NOV 26 2014

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER
THE AREA...BUT DUE TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS WITH EACH TROUGH PASSAGE.

ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  A RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
DRY AND MILD THROUGH THIS PERIOD SINCE THE RIDGE WILL SHUNT STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARMUP TO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS AT KGLD
WILL DIMINISH MID MORNING THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY MID
AFTERNOON. KMCK WILL HAVE BREEZY WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES ANTICIPATE THE
SNOWFALL TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMPLETELY WEST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BREAKUP AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA TODAY BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY TOO
LARGE FOR ANY PRECIP. TO BE GENERATED FROM THE MEAGER LIFT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE
COOLED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM
MST WED NOV 26 2014

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER
THE AREA...BUT DUE TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS WITH EACH TROUGH PASSAGE.



ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  A RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
DRY AND MILD THROUGH THIS PERIOD SINCE THE RIDGE WILL SHUNT STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARMUP TO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION HAS CHANGED OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES APPROACHED FREEZING. THIS LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ONLY GLD AND NOT MCK AND SHOULD COME TO AN END
AROUND 09Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MCK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS UNDER THE
MID LEVEL CEILING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER...BUT STILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260600
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. HI RESOLUTIONS MODELS SUGGESTING A HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR YUMA TO
BURLINGTON...LESS ELSEWHERE. AS THE JET SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT SUBSIDENT AREA OF RIGHT EXIT REGION WILL SHUT OFF THE
SNOW BY 12Z. COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVERSPREADING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WARMING TAKES PLACE
THU-FRI AS A STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN COLORADO. 850 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE
SATURDAY WITH GFS HINTING AT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE AREA IN W-SW SFC FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH TAKES THE EDGE OFF THE
UNSEASONAL WARM TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IF
EC SOLUTION VERIFIES THEN SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
IN THE 70S.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS SATURDAY...BOTH GFS/EC ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL POTENTIALLY
BE 35-40 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH
PLUNGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MON-TUE AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION HAS CHANGED OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES APPROACHED FREEZING. THIS LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ONLY GLD AND NOT MCK AND SHOULD COME TO AN END
AROUND 09Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MCK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS UNDER THE
MID LEVEL CEILING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER...BUT STILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. HI RESOLUTIONS MODELS SUGGESTING A HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR YUMA TO
BURLINGTON...LESS ELSEWHERE. AS THE JET SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT SUBSIDENT AREA OF RIGHT EXIT REGION WILL SHUT OFF THE
SNOW BY 12Z. COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVERSPREADING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WARMING TAKES PLACE
THU-FRI AS A STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN COLORADO. 850 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE
SATURDAY WITH GFS HINTING AT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE AREA IN W-SW SFC FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH TAKES THE EDGE OFF THE
UNSEASONAL WARM TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IF
EC SOLUTION VERIFIES THEN SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
IN THE 70S.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS SATURDAY...BOTH GFS/EC ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL POTENTIALLY
BE 35-40 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH
PLUNGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MON-TUE AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. AT BOTH GLD AND MCK...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO
TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY 03Z ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR 3-6 HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES TO BE NOTED
DURING THAT TIME. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE TAFS SINCE THE PROBABILITY IS 30 PERCENT OR LESS OF
RECEIVING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 06-09Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DEEPER INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. HI RESOLUTIONS MODELS SUGGESTING A HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR YUMA TO
BURLINGTON...LESS ELSEWHERE. AS THE JET SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT SUBSIDENT AREA OF RIGHT EXIT REGION WILL SHUT OFF THE
SNOW BY 12Z. COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVERSPREADING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WARMING TAKES PLACE
THU-FRI AS A STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN COLORADO. 850 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE
SATURDAY WITH GFS HINTING AT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE AREA IN W-SW SFC FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH TAKES THE EDGE OFF THE
UNSEASONAL WARM TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IF
EC SOLUTION VERIFIES THEN SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
IN THE 70S.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS SATURDAY...BOTH GFS/EC ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL POTENTIALLY
BE 35-40 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH
PLUNGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MON-TUE AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. AT BOTH GLD AND MCK...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO
TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY 03Z ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR 3-6 HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES TO BE NOTED
DURING THAT TIME. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE TAFS SINCE THE PROBABILITY IS 30 PERCENT OR LESS OF
RECEIVING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 06-09Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DEEPER INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 252121
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. HI RESOLUTIONS MODELS SUGGESTING A HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR YUMA TO
BURLINGTON...LESS ELSEWHERE. AS THE JET SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT SUBSIDENT AREA OF RIGHT EXIT REGION WILL SHUT OFF THE
SNOW BY 12Z. COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVERSPREADING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WARMING TAKES PLACE
THU-FRI AS A STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN COLORADO. 850 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE
SATURDAY WITH GFS HINTING AT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE AREA IN W-SW SFC FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH TAKES THE EDGE OFF THE
UNSEASONAL WARM TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IF
EC SOLUTION VERIFIES THEN SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
IN THE 70S.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS SATURDAY...BOTH GFS/EC ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL POTENTIALLY
BE 35-40 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH
PLUNGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MON-TUE AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICK
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT LOWER CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. A BRIEF FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY AT KGLD...WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 6SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251904
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1204 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. HI RESOLUTIONS MODELS SUGGESTING A HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR YUMA TO
BURLINGTON...LESS ELSEWHERE. AS THE JET SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT SUBSIDENT AREA OF RIGHT EXIT REGION WILL SHUT OFF THE
SNOW BY 12Z. COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DECLINES AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.  THERE IS A
NARROW BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BISECTS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING UNDER THE 500MB JET STREAK BESIDE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS INTERSECTING THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECIDED
TO KEEP MINIMAL SNOWFALL CHANCES GOING DURING THE MORNING OVER
MAINLY YUMA COUNTY.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS A RESULT THE BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT
NOT AS MUCH WARM AIR AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE WEST HALF WILL
HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA.

THANKSGIVING DAY THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WITH
LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE SUPPORT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICK
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT LOWER CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. A BRIEF FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY AT KGLD...WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 6SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251904
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1204 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. HI RESOLUTIONS MODELS SUGGESTING A HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR YUMA TO
BURLINGTON...LESS ELSEWHERE. AS THE JET SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT SUBSIDENT AREA OF RIGHT EXIT REGION WILL SHUT OFF THE
SNOW BY 12Z. COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DECLINES AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.  THERE IS A
NARROW BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BISECTS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING UNDER THE 500MB JET STREAK BESIDE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS INTERSECTING THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECIDED
TO KEEP MINIMAL SNOWFALL CHANCES GOING DURING THE MORNING OVER
MAINLY YUMA COUNTY.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS A RESULT THE BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT
NOT AS MUCH WARM AIR AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE WEST HALF WILL
HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA.

THANKSGIVING DAY THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WITH
LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE SUPPORT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICK
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT LOWER CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. A BRIEF FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY AT KGLD...WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 6SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.  SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME A LARGE PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

TODAY THE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON CAUSING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  DESPITE THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THERE
WILL BE MINIMAL LIFT TO WORK WITH AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAIRLY
STABLE SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

WINDS WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS FIRST OVER YUMA COUNTY THEN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS.  THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
STABLE...WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THE 4-6C/KM RANGE.  HOWEVER THE
LIFT DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SO HAVE PLACED SOME
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE
STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER YUMA COUNTY SO WILL HAVE
HIGHER SNOWFALL CHANCES THERE.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SNOWFALL TO
ACCUMULATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.  LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATES THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOONER THAN SHOWN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DECLINES AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.  THERE IS A
NARROW BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BISECTS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING UNDER THE 500MB JET STREAK BESIDE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS INTERSECTING THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECIDED
TO KEEP MINIMAL SNOWFALL CHANCES GOING DURING THE MORNING OVER
MAINLY YUMA COUNTY.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS A RESULT THE BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT
NOT AS MUCH WARM AIR AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE WEST HALF WILL
HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA.

THANKSGIVING DAY THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WITH
LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE SUPPORT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE WINDS STRENGTHENING TODAY AND CHANGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL
PEAK AROUND NOON THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMCK MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING BUT SINCE THERE
IS SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL DEVELOP...DECIDED TO LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
MEANWHILE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 17 PERCENT
FOR AN HOUR OR SO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 BEFORE HIGHER HUMIDITIES
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL FURTHER. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS DO NOT BELIEVE THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.  SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME A LARGE PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

TODAY THE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON CAUSING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  DESPITE THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THERE
WILL BE MINIMAL LIFT TO WORK WITH AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAIRLY
STABLE SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

WINDS WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS FIRST OVER YUMA COUNTY THEN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS.  THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
STABLE...WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THE 4-6C/KM RANGE.  HOWEVER THE
LIFT DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SO HAVE PLACED SOME
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE
STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER YUMA COUNTY SO WILL HAVE
HIGHER SNOWFALL CHANCES THERE.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SNOWFALL TO
ACCUMULATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.  LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATES THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOONER THAN SHOWN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DECLINES AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.  THERE IS A
NARROW BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BISECTS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING UNDER THE 500MB JET STREAK BESIDE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS INTERSECTING THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECIDED
TO KEEP MINIMAL SNOWFALL CHANCES GOING DURING THE MORNING OVER
MAINLY YUMA COUNTY.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS A RESULT THE BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT
NOT AS MUCH WARM AIR AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE WEST HALF WILL
HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA.

THANKSGIVING DAY THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WITH
LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE SUPPORT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE WINDS STRENGTHENING TODAY AND CHANGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL
PEAK AROUND NOON THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMCK MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING BUT SINCE THERE
IS SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL DEVELOP...DECIDED TO LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
MEANWHILE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 17 PERCENT
FOR AN HOUR OR SO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 BEFORE HIGHER HUMIDITIES
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL FURTHER. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS DO NOT BELIEVE THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.  SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME A LARGE PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

TODAY THE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON CAUSING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  DESPITE THE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THERE
WILL BE MINIMAL LIFT TO WORK WITH AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAIRLY
STABLE SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

WINDS WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS FIRST OVER YUMA COUNTY THEN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS.  THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
STABLE...WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THE 4-6C/KM RANGE.  HOWEVER THE
LIFT DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SO HAVE PLACED SOME
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE
STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER YUMA COUNTY SO WILL HAVE
HIGHER SNOWFALL CHANCES THERE.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SNOWFALL TO
ACCUMULATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.  LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATES THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOONER THAN SHOWN
YESTERDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DECLINES AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.  THERE IS A
NARROW BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BISECTS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING UNDER THE 500MB JET STREAK BESIDE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS INTERSECTING THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECIDED
TO KEEP MINIMAL SNOWFALL CHANCES GOING DURING THE MORNING OVER
MAINLY YUMA COUNTY.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS A RESULT THE BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT
NOT AS MUCH WARM AIR AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE WEST HALF WILL
HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA.

THANKSGIVING DAY THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WITH
LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.




UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE SUPPORT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT SCT200 THROUGH 21Z...GIVING WAY TO BKN050-060 WITH -SHSN
AFT 00Z. NW WINDS AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING WNW/WSW 10-20KTS BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS BY 00Z WED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
MEANWHILE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 17 PERCENT
FOR AN HOUR OR SO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 BEFORE HIGHER HUMIDITIES
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL FURTHER. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS DO NOT BELIEVE THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAINLY ADJUST SKY COVER FOR MOST OF CWA.
CURRENTLY...BULK OF REMAINING CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL
CLEAR AREA IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE WORKS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AIDED BY FACT OF MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT SCT200 THROUGH 21Z...GIVING WAY TO BKN050-060 WITH -SHSN
AFT 00Z. NW WINDS AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING WNW/WSW 10-20KTS BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS BY 00Z WED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAINLY ADJUST SKY COVER FOR MOST OF CWA.
CURRENTLY...BULK OF REMAINING CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL
CLEAR AREA IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE WORKS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AIDED BY FACT OF MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT SCT200 THROUGH 21Z...GIVING WAY TO BKN050-060 WITH -SHSN
AFT 00Z. NW WINDS AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING WNW/WSW 10-20KTS BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS BY 00Z WED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250431
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
931 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAINLY ADJUST SKY COVER FOR MOST OF CWA.
CURRENTLY...BULK OF REMAINING CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL
CLEAR AREA IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE WORKS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AIDED BY FACT OF MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
THRU 06Z TUESDAY...BKN070 WITH SOME VCSH...EITHER --SW/--RW WITH
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FROM 06Z-21Z TUESDAY...SCT200 THEN
BKN050-060 AFT 21Z. NNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
SHIFTING TO WSW/WNW 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250431
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
931 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAINLY ADJUST SKY COVER FOR MOST OF CWA.
CURRENTLY...BULK OF REMAINING CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL
CLEAR AREA IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE WORKS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AIDED BY FACT OF MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
THRU 06Z TUESDAY...BKN070 WITH SOME VCSH...EITHER --SW/--RW WITH
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FROM 06Z-21Z TUESDAY...SCT200 THEN
BKN050-060 AFT 21Z. NNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
SHIFTING TO WSW/WNW 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
618 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND THE CWA AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIP ECHOES FROM
EARLY THAT GAVE SOME AREAS LIGHT FLURRIES/SPRINKLES HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...AND STILL DO EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS THRU THE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 20F RANGE FROM THE CURRENT 30S. REST OF
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
THRU 06Z TUESDAY...BKN070 WITH SOME VCSH...EITHER --SW/--RW WITH
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FROM 06Z-21Z TUESDAY...SCT200 THEN
BKN050-060 AFT 21Z. NNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
SHIFTING TO WSW/WNW 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
618 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND THE CWA AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIP ECHOES FROM
EARLY THAT GAVE SOME AREAS LIGHT FLURRIES/SPRINKLES HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET...AND STILL DO EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS THRU THE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 20F RANGE FROM THE CURRENT 30S. REST OF
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
THRU 06Z TUESDAY...BKN070 WITH SOME VCSH...EITHER --SW/--RW WITH
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FROM 06Z-21Z TUESDAY...SCT200 THEN
BKN050-060 AFT 21Z. NNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
SHIFTING TO WSW/WNW 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
THRU 06Z TUESDAY...BKN070 WITH SOME VCSH...EITHER --SW/--RW WITH
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FROM 06Z-21Z TUESDAY...SCT200 THEN
BKN050-060 AFT 21Z. NNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
SHIFTING TO WSW/WNW 10-20KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
THRU 06Z TUESDAY...BKN070 WITH SOME VCSH...EITHER --SW/--RW WITH
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FROM 06Z-21Z TUESDAY...SCT200 THEN
BKN050-060 AFT 21Z. NNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 12Z TUESDAY...THEN
SHIFTING TO WSW/WNW 10-20KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 242134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT  207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TODAY...AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AROUND FL080. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF KGLD TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT  207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS.

AT JET LEVEL...POWERFUL JET MOVING FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND NAM LOOK TO
HANDLING THE 150 KNOT PLUS SPEEDS THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. NAM AND SREF WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE
WIND AND SURFACE PATTERN THE BEST. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT PRECIPITATION REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY AND EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO THE NEARBY JET. DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THE NIGHT BEFORE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND GUIDANCE IS
COOLER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. OVERALL LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS IT RETREATS. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TENDED TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/GFS/MAV FOR THIS.

THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO PUSH THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE WEST BUT
ALL DIFFER ON HOW FAR. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. TENDED TO SIDE TOWARD THE NAM A
LITTLE MORE SINCE IT DOES HAVE TERRAIN BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD END UP
A WITH A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY AREA WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR BEING WAY OFF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO THAT TROUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH
LIFT FROM THE JET WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS.

DUE TO THE MODELS HANDLING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BETTER FOR
OUR AREA...THEY ARE HANDLING THE RESULTING SURFACE REFLECTION
MUCH BETTER AS WELL. COLD AIR COMPLETELY RETREATS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK HEATING WILL
OCCUR BEFORE IT ARRIVES PER THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT. THINK A
SLOWER ARRIVING FRONT MAKES SENSE SINCE A STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT WILL CAUSE A STRONGER LEE TROUGH TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
SLOW UP THE FRONT. SO THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
MODIFICATION IN THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THAT
WILL OCCUR BUT PROJECTED FLOW SETUP WOULD SAY THE COLDER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE INIT LOOK REASONABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TODAY...AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AROUND FL080. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF KGLD TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TODAY...AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AROUND FL080. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF KGLD TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 242110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TODAY...AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AROUND FL080. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF KGLD TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

RAISED TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OT TWO IN SOME AREAS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. GIVEN 850 TEMPS OF ONLY 2-3 DEGREES C AND
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES...THINK HIGH TEMPS OF 45-50 DEGREES SHOULD HOLD UP OKAY.

TRIMMED POPS/SNOW SHOWERS BACK OVER WESTERN KANSAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT KEPT FOR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BETTER LIFT AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE AND I-25 CORRIDOR AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SSE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT SMALL CHANCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TRAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TODAY...AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AROUND FL080. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF KGLD TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

RAISED TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OT TWO IN SOME AREAS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. GIVEN 850 TEMPS OF ONLY 2-3 DEGREES C AND
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES...THINK HIGH TEMPS OF 45-50 DEGREES SHOULD HOLD UP OKAY.

TRIMMED POPS/SNOW SHOWERS BACK OVER WESTERN KANSAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT KEPT FOR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BETTER LIFT AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE AND I-25 CORRIDOR AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SSE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT SMALL CHANCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TRAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TODAY...AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AROUND FL080. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF KGLD TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 241125
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LARGE PLUME OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
WYOMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANTICIPATE CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.  AS IT DOES
SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL NEAR
0C/KM.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED PRECIP. CHANCES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
BETTER FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST...BUT OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE THE
PRECIP. COVERAGE TOO MUCH. DID CHANGE THE PRECIP. TYPE TO ALL SNOW
DUE TO WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEING BELOW 750 FT. AGL WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD...THOUGHT ABOUT
PLACING A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SINCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOMETHING WILL FALL JUST A QUESTION
OF WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TO MELT DOWN TO A HUNDREDTH OR NOT.
HOWEVER WAS AFRAID THAT SOUNDED TOO COMPLICATED SO JUST HAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN CHANGE THIS IF FLURRIES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT...WITH THE PEAK WINDS STARTING AROUND
NOON. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE KGLD SITE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO THE SNOW
REMAINING MOSTLY WEST OF THE SITE AND THE VERY LIGHT NATURE IF ANY
DOES DEVELOP. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MAY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT APPEAR TO BE TOO SHORT LIVED TO
WARRANT ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE AREA DESPITE GUSTS NEAR 30MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCASE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241125
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LARGE PLUME OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
WYOMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANTICIPATE CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.  AS IT DOES
SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL NEAR
0C/KM.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED PRECIP. CHANCES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
BETTER FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST...BUT OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE THE
PRECIP. COVERAGE TOO MUCH. DID CHANGE THE PRECIP. TYPE TO ALL SNOW
DUE TO WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEING BELOW 750 FT. AGL WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD...THOUGHT ABOUT
PLACING A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SINCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOMETHING WILL FALL JUST A QUESTION
OF WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TO MELT DOWN TO A HUNDREDTH OR NOT.
HOWEVER WAS AFRAID THAT SOUNDED TOO COMPLICATED SO JUST HAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN CHANGE THIS IF FLURRIES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT...WITH THE PEAK WINDS STARTING AROUND
NOON. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE KGLD SITE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO THE SNOW
REMAINING MOSTLY WEST OF THE SITE AND THE VERY LIGHT NATURE IF ANY
DOES DEVELOP. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MAY
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT APPEAR TO BE TOO SHORT LIVED TO
WARRANT ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE AREA DESPITE GUSTS NEAR 30MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCASE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 241004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LARGE PLUME OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
WYOMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANTICIPATE CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.  AS IT DOES
SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL NEAR
0C/KM.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED PRECIP. CHANCES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
BETTER FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST...BUT OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE THE
PRECIP. COVERAGE TOO MUCH. DID CHANGE THE PRECIP. TYPE TO ALL SNOW
DUE TO WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEING BELOW 750 FT. AGL WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD...THOUGHT ABOUT
PLACING A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SINCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOMETHING WILL FALL JUST A QUESTION
OF WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TO MELT DOWN TO A HUNDREDTH OR NOT.
HOWEVER WAS AFRAID THAT SOUNDED TOO COMPLICATED SO JUST HAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN CHANGE THIS IF FLURRIES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.



NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY
SCT-BKN080-150 WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AT KMCK SCT040 BETWEEN 09Z-16Z.
WNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 16Z MONDAY...THEN 20-30KTS THRU 00Z
TUESDAY AND WINDS DROP DOWN TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT APPEAR TO BE TOO SHORT LIVED TO
WARRANT ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE AREA DESPITE GUSTS NEAR 30MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCASE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 241004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LARGE PLUME OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
WYOMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANTICIPATE CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.  AS IT DOES
SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL NEAR
0C/KM.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED PRECIP. CHANCES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
BETTER FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST...BUT OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE THE
PRECIP. COVERAGE TOO MUCH. DID CHANGE THE PRECIP. TYPE TO ALL SNOW
DUE TO WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEING BELOW 750 FT. AGL WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD...THOUGHT ABOUT
PLACING A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SINCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOMETHING WILL FALL JUST A QUESTION
OF WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TO MELT DOWN TO A HUNDREDTH OR NOT.
HOWEVER WAS AFRAID THAT SOUNDED TOO COMPLICATED SO JUST HAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN CHANGE THIS IF FLURRIES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.



NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY
SCT-BKN080-150 WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AT KMCK SCT040 BETWEEN 09Z-16Z.
WNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 16Z MONDAY...THEN 20-30KTS THRU 00Z
TUESDAY AND WINDS DROP DOWN TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT APPEAR TO BE TOO SHORT LIVED TO
WARRANT ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE AREA DESPITE GUSTS NEAR 30MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCASE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LARGE PLUME OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
WYOMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANTICIPATE CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.  AS IT DOES
SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL NEAR
0C/KM.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED PRECIP. CHANCES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
BETTER FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST...BUT OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE THE
PRECIP. COVERAGE TOO MUCH. DID CHANGE THE PRECIP. TYPE TO ALL SNOW
DUE TO WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEING BELOW 750 FT. AGL WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD...THOUGHT ABOUT
PLACING A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SINCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOMETHING WILL FALL JUST A QUESTION
OF WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TO MELT DOWN TO A HUNDREDTH OR NOT.
HOWEVER WAS AFRAID THAT SOUNDED TOO COMPLICATED SO JUST HAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN CHANGE THIS IF FLURRIES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.



NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY
SCT-BKN080-150 WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AT KMCK SCT040 BETWEEN 09Z-16Z.
WNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 16Z MONDAY...THEN 20-30KTS THRU 00Z
TUESDAY AND WINDS DROP DOWN TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT APPEAR TO BE TOO SHORT LIVED TO
WARRANT ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE AREA DESPITE GUSTS NEAR 30MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCASE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 241004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LARGE PLUME OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
WYOMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANTICIPATE CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.  AS IT DOES
SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL NEAR
0C/KM.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED PRECIP. CHANCES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
BETTER FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST...BUT OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE THE
PRECIP. COVERAGE TOO MUCH. DID CHANGE THE PRECIP. TYPE TO ALL SNOW
DUE TO WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEING BELOW 750 FT. AGL WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD...THOUGHT ABOUT
PLACING A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SINCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOMETHING WILL FALL JUST A QUESTION
OF WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TO MELT DOWN TO A HUNDREDTH OR NOT.
HOWEVER WAS AFRAID THAT SOUNDED TOO COMPLICATED SO JUST HAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN CHANGE THIS IF FLURRIES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.



NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY
SCT-BKN080-150 WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AT KMCK SCT040 BETWEEN 09Z-16Z.
WNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 16Z MONDAY...THEN 20-30KTS THRU 00Z
TUESDAY AND WINDS DROP DOWN TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT APPEAR TO BE TOO SHORT LIVED TO
WARRANT ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE AREA DESPITE GUSTS NEAR 30MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCASE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JTL




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