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000
FXUS63 KGLD 021118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF MUCAPE MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LLJ IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY 12Z AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. FOR TODAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...GFS INSISTS ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO SIGN OF THAT
DISTURBANCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH THE MODEL PLACES
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK LLJ
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STOUT
CAP/INVERSION NEAR 800MB WITH CIN AROUND 100 OR EVEN HIGHER ON
THE NAM SOUNDINGS. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS
AT 10 PERCENT OR LOWER. HOWEVER IF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IF CONVECTION
WERE TO DEVELOP.

RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER
FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY BE VERY HOT
WITH MID 90S TO NEAR 100 POSSIBLE. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN
HEATING. MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION DESPITE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CIN.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AS LLJ CRANKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1500 J/KG
AND LITTLE TO NO CIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE AREA WILL BE IN MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERSISTENT
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT SEEMS PROBABLE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MID RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND WITH GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POSITION
OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH REORIENTING THE BOUNDARY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH. ALL GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY SHOWS
VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED INSTABILITY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WESTERLIES ALOFT AND TRANSIENT WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL FORCE LEE TROUGHING. HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER TYPE
TO THUNDER THOSE DAYS AFTER A PERIOD OF LITTLE/NO INSTABILITY AND
MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STRATUS MAY LOWER CEILINGS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING AT
KGLD...WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 021118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF MUCAPE MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LLJ IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY 12Z AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. FOR TODAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...GFS INSISTS ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO SIGN OF THAT
DISTURBANCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH THE MODEL PLACES
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK LLJ
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STOUT
CAP/INVERSION NEAR 800MB WITH CIN AROUND 100 OR EVEN HIGHER ON
THE NAM SOUNDINGS. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS
AT 10 PERCENT OR LOWER. HOWEVER IF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IF CONVECTION
WERE TO DEVELOP.

RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER
FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY BE VERY HOT
WITH MID 90S TO NEAR 100 POSSIBLE. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN
HEATING. MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION DESPITE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CIN.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AS LLJ CRANKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1500 J/KG
AND LITTLE TO NO CIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE AREA WILL BE IN MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERSISTENT
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT SEEMS PROBABLE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MID RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND WITH GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POSITION
OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH REORIENTING THE BOUNDARY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH. ALL GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY SHOWS
VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED INSTABILITY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WESTERLIES ALOFT AND TRANSIENT WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL FORCE LEE TROUGHING. HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER TYPE
TO THUNDER THOSE DAYS AFTER A PERIOD OF LITTLE/NO INSTABILITY AND
MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STRATUS MAY LOWER CEILINGS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING AT
KGLD...WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020756
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF MUCAPE MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LLJ IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY 12Z AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. FOR TODAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...GFS INSISTS ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO SIGN OF THAT
DISTURBANCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH THE MODEL PLACES
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK LLJ
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STOUT
CAP/INVERSION NEAR 800MB WITH CIN AROUND 100 OR EVEN HIGHER ON
THE NAM SOUNDINGS. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS
AT 10 PERCENT OR LOWER. HOWEVER IF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IF CONVECTION
WERE TO DEVELOP.

RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER
FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY BE VERY HOT
WITH MID 90S TO NEAR 100 POSSIBLE. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN
HEATING. MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION DESPITE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CIN.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AS LLJ CRANKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1500 J/KG
AND LITTLE TO NO CIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE AREA WILL BE IN MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERSISTENT
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT SEEMS PROBABLE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MID RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND WITH GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POSITION
OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH REORIENTING THE BOUNDARY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH. ALL GUIDNACE EVENTUALLY SHOWS
VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED INSTABILITY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WESTERLIES ALOFT AND TRANSIENT WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL FORCE LEE TROUGHING. HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER TYPE
TO THUNDER THOSE DAYS AFTER A PERIOD OF LITTLE/NO INSTABILITY AND
MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INSENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS THE CHANCE OF
STRATUS AT KGLD TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THIS THREAT SOUTH. LATEST NAM RUNS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
FOG AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FEW015 AS THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL STRATUS...LOWER CEILINGS OR INCLUDE
FOG. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z AT KGLD BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO BOTH SITES TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN AT 00Z. MOST CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF KGLD. NEED TO MONITOR CHANCES OF ELEVATED STORMS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 020756
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF MUCAPE MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LLJ IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY 12Z AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. FOR TODAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...GFS INSISTS ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO SIGN OF THAT
DISTURBANCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH THE MODEL PLACES
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK LLJ
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STOUT
CAP/INVERSION NEAR 800MB WITH CIN AROUND 100 OR EVEN HIGHER ON
THE NAM SOUNDINGS. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS
AT 10 PERCENT OR LOWER. HOWEVER IF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IF CONVECTION
WERE TO DEVELOP.

RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER
FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY BE VERY HOT
WITH MID 90S TO NEAR 100 POSSIBLE. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN
HEATING. MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION DESPITE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CIN.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AS LLJ CRANKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1500 J/KG
AND LITTLE TO NO CIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE AREA WILL BE IN MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERSISTENT
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT SEEMS PROBABLE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MID RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND WITH GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POSITION
OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH REORIENTING THE BOUNDARY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH. ALL GUIDNACE EVENTUALLY SHOWS
VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED INSTABILITY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WESTERLIES ALOFT AND TRANSIENT WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL FORCE LEE TROUGHING. HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER TYPE
TO THUNDER THOSE DAYS AFTER A PERIOD OF LITTLE/NO INSTABILITY AND
MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INSENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS THE CHANCE OF
STRATUS AT KGLD TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THIS THREAT SOUTH. LATEST NAM RUNS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
FOG AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FEW015 AS THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL STRATUS...LOWER CEILINGS OR INCLUDE
FOG. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z AT KGLD BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO BOTH SITES TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN AT 00Z. MOST CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF KGLD. NEED TO MONITOR CHANCES OF ELEVATED STORMS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020743
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF MUCAPE MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LLJ IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY 12Z AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. FOR TODAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...GFS INSISTS ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO SIGN OF THAT
DISTURBANCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH THE MODEL PLACES
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK LLJ
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STOUT
CAP/INVERSION NEAR 800MB WITH CIN AROUND 100 OR EVEN HIGHER ON
THE NAM SOUNDINGS. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS
AT 10 PERCENT OR LOWER. HOWEVER IF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IF CONVECTION
WERE TO DEVELOP.

RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER
FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY BE VERY HOT
WITH MID 90S TO NEAR 100 POSSIBLE. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN
HEATING. MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION DESPITE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CIN.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AS LLJ CRANKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1500 J/KG
AND LITTLE TO NO CIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS THE CHANCE OF
STRATUS AT KGLD TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THIS THREAT SOUTH. LATEST NAM RUNS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
FOG AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FEW015 AS THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL STRATUS...LOWER CEILINGS OR INCLUDE
FOG. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z AT KGLD BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO BOTH SITES TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN AT 00Z. MOST CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF KGLD. NEED TO MONITOR CHANCES OF ELEVATED STORMS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020743
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF MUCAPE MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LLJ IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY 12Z AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. FOR TODAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...GFS INSISTS ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO SIGN OF THAT
DISTURBANCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH THE MODEL PLACES
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK LLJ
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STOUT
CAP/INVERSION NEAR 800MB WITH CIN AROUND 100 OR EVEN HIGHER ON
THE NAM SOUNDINGS. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS
AT 10 PERCENT OR LOWER. HOWEVER IF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IF CONVECTION
WERE TO DEVELOP.

RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER
FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY BE VERY HOT
WITH MID 90S TO NEAR 100 POSSIBLE. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN
HEATING. MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION DESPITE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CIN.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AS LLJ CRANKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1500 J/KG
AND LITTLE TO NO CIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS THE CHANCE OF
STRATUS AT KGLD TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THIS THREAT SOUTH. LATEST NAM RUNS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
FOG AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FEW015 AS THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL STRATUS...LOWER CEILINGS OR INCLUDE
FOG. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z AT KGLD BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO BOTH SITES TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN AT 00Z. MOST CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF KGLD. NEED TO MONITOR CHANCES OF ELEVATED STORMS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 020529
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO MAY REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WANING BUT
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY...IF IT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OUT LATE THIS EVENING.

REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE ALSO APPEARED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AS ADVERTISED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND WITH INCREASING
MUCAPE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH...THINKING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
PLACEMENT AS SOME GUIDANCE AS ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURE.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.  FURTHER
WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  AT THE SURFACE A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM.  TO THE EAST A SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.  ANTICIPATE THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE IN THE 500-600MB
LAYER AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE STEEPER THAN
THIS MORNING WHEN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MID LEVEL LIFT
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP.
CHANCES SOME.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.  WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF DRY.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT STORM MOVEMENT OF 45 MPH AND THE DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 600MB WILL LIKELY HINDER QUITE A BIT OF THE RAINFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

TUESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.  MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO CINH.  HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SPARK OFF STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE RATHER BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DESPITE THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS THE CHANCE OF
STRATUS AT KGLD TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THIS THREAT SOUTH. LATEST NAM RUNS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
FOG AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FEW015 AS THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL STRATUS...LOWER CEILINGS OR INCLUDE
FOG. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z AT KGLD BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO BOTH SITES TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN AT 00Z. MOST CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF KGLD. NEED TO MONITOR CHANCES OF ELEVATED STORMS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 020529
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO MAY REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WANING BUT
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY...IF IT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OUT LATE THIS EVENING.

REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE ALSO APPEARED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AS ADVERTISED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND WITH INCREASING
MUCAPE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH...THINKING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
PLACEMENT AS SOME GUIDANCE AS ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURE.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.  FURTHER
WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  AT THE SURFACE A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM.  TO THE EAST A SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.  ANTICIPATE THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE IN THE 500-600MB
LAYER AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE STEEPER THAN
THIS MORNING WHEN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MID LEVEL LIFT
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP.
CHANCES SOME.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.  WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF DRY.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT STORM MOVEMENT OF 45 MPH AND THE DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 600MB WILL LIKELY HINDER QUITE A BIT OF THE RAINFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

TUESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.  MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO CINH.  HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SPARK OFF STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE RATHER BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DESPITE THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS THE CHANCE OF
STRATUS AT KGLD TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THIS THREAT SOUTH. LATEST NAM RUNS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
FOG AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FEW015 AS THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL STRATUS...LOWER CEILINGS OR INCLUDE
FOG. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z AT KGLD BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO BOTH SITES TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN AT 00Z. MOST CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF KGLD. NEED TO MONITOR CHANCES OF ELEVATED STORMS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020210
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
810 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO MAY REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WANING BUT
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY...IF IT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OUT LATE THIS EVENING.

REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE ALSO APPEARED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AS ADVERTISED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND WITH INCREASING
MUCAPE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH...THINKING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
PLACEMENT AS SOME GUIDANCE AS ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURE.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.  FURTHER
WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  AT THE SURFACE A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM.  TO THE EAST A SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.  ANTICIPATE THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE IN THE 500-600MB
LAYER AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE STEEPER THAN
THIS MORNING WHEN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MID LEVEL LIFT
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP.
CHANCES SOME.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.  WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF DRY.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT STORM MOVEMENT OF 45 MPH AND THE DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 600MB WILL LIKELY HINDER QUITE A BIT OF THE RAINFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

TUESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.  MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO CINH.  HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SPARK OFF STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE RATHER BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DESPITE THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THAT SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STRATUS COULD SNEAK
INTO KGLD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. MENTIONED FEW015 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...CANT IMAGINE STRATUS BEING A PROLONGED
PROBLEM. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF KGLD. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SOUTH WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 020210
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
810 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO MAY REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WANING BUT
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY...IF IT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OUT LATE THIS EVENING.

REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE ALSO APPEARED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AS ADVERTISED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND WITH INCREASING
MUCAPE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH...THINKING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
PLACEMENT AS SOME GUIDANCE AS ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURE.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.  FURTHER
WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  AT THE SURFACE A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM.  TO THE EAST A SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.  ANTICIPATE THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE IN THE 500-600MB
LAYER AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE STEEPER THAN
THIS MORNING WHEN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MID LEVEL LIFT
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP.
CHANCES SOME.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.  WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF DRY.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT STORM MOVEMENT OF 45 MPH AND THE DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 600MB WILL LIKELY HINDER QUITE A BIT OF THE RAINFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

TUESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.  MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO CINH.  HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SPARK OFF STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE RATHER BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DESPITE THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THAT SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STRATUS COULD SNEAK
INTO KGLD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. MENTIONED FEW015 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...CANT IMAGINE STRATUS BEING A PROLONGED
PROBLEM. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF KGLD. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SOUTH WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 012329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURE.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.  FURTHER
WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  AT THE SURFACE A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM.  TO THE EAST A SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.  ANTICIPATE THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE IN THE 500-600MB
LAYER AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE STEEPER THAN
THIS MORNING WHEN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MID LEVEL LIFT
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP.
CHANCES SOME.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.  WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF DRY.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT STORM MOVEMENT OF 45 MPH AND THE DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 600MB WILL LIKELY HINDER QUITE A BIT OF THE RAINFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

TUESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.  MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO CINH.  HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SPARK OFF STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE RATHER BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DESPITE THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THAT SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STRATUS COULD SNEAK
INTO KGLD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. MENTIONED FEW015 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...CANT IMAGINE STRATUS BEING A PROLONGED
PROBLEM. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF KGLD. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SOUTH WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 012329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURE.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.  FURTHER
WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  AT THE SURFACE A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM.  TO THE EAST A SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.  ANTICIPATE THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE IN THE 500-600MB
LAYER AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE STEEPER THAN
THIS MORNING WHEN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MID LEVEL LIFT
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP.
CHANCES SOME.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.  WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF DRY.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT STORM MOVEMENT OF 45 MPH AND THE DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 600MB WILL LIKELY HINDER QUITE A BIT OF THE RAINFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

TUESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.  MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO CINH.  HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SPARK OFF STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE RATHER BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DESPITE THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THAT SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STRATUS COULD SNEAK
INTO KGLD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. MENTIONED FEW015 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...CANT IMAGINE STRATUS BEING A PROLONGED
PROBLEM. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF KGLD. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SOUTH WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 012102
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURE.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.  FURTHER
WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  AT THE SURFACE A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM.  TO THE EAST A SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.  ANTICIPATE THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE IN THE 500-600MB
LAYER AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE STEEPER THAN
THIS MORNING WHEN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MID LEVEL LIFT
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP.
CHANCES SOME.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.  WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF DRY.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT STORM MOVEMENT OF 45 MPH AND THE DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 600MB WILL LIKELY HINDER QUITE A BIT OF THE RAINFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

TUESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.  MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO CINH.  HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SPARK OFF STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE RATHER BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DESPITE THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.
TUESDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SOME
AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO TIGHTEN. SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SITES DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW SINCE THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE AN MVFR DECK WILL DEVELOP.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011747
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM
LATEST OBS. CURRENTLY...MOST SPOTS IN THE 50S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
50S WITH SOME SPOT 40S. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FOG ATTM DUE
TO PERSISTENT WNW FLOW 5-10MPH THAT HAS BEEN INTACT OVERNIGHT.
ALSO HAVE ADDED IN LIGHT -RW FOR NORTHERN ZONES THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LAST 10-15 MINUTES. WILL
KEEP IN THRU MID-MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.
TUESDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SOME
AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO TIGHTEN. SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SITES DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW SINCE THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE AN MVFR DECK WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011747
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM
LATEST OBS. CURRENTLY...MOST SPOTS IN THE 50S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
50S WITH SOME SPOT 40S. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FOG ATTM DUE
TO PERSISTENT WNW FLOW 5-10MPH THAT HAS BEEN INTACT OVERNIGHT.
ALSO HAVE ADDED IN LIGHT -RW FOR NORTHERN ZONES THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LAST 10-15 MINUTES. WILL
KEEP IN THRU MID-MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.
TUESDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SOME
AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO TIGHTEN. SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SITES DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW SINCE THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE AN MVFR DECK WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011146
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM
LATEST OBS. CURRENTLY...MOST SPOTS IN THE 50S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
50S WITH SOME SPOT 40S. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FOG ATTM DUE
TO PERSISTENT WNW FLOW 5-10MPH THAT HAS BEEN INTACT OVERNIGHT.
ALSO HAVE ADDED IN LIGHT -RW FOR NORTHERN ZONES THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LAST 10-15 MMINUTES.WILL
KEEP IN THRU MID-MORNING. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY SKC BUT
FEW-SCT100 POSSIBLE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS NNW
5-10KTS BECM SE 5-10KTS FOR GLD...VRB05 FOR MCK. SW 5-10KTS BOTH
SITES BY 06Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011146
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM
LATEST OBS. CURRENTLY...MOST SPOTS IN THE 50S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
50S WITH SOME SPOT 40S. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FOG ATTM DUE
TO PERSISTENT WNW FLOW 5-10MPH THAT HAS BEEN INTACT OVERNIGHT.
ALSO HAVE ADDED IN LIGHT -RW FOR NORTHERN ZONES THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LAST 10-15 MMINUTES.WILL
KEEP IN THRU MID-MORNING. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY SKC BUT
FEW-SCT100 POSSIBLE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS NNW
5-10KTS BECM SE 5-10KTS FOR GLD...VRB05 FOR MCK. SW 5-10KTS BOTH
SITES BY 06Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011146 CCA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM
LATEST OBS. CURRENTLY...MOST SPOTS IN THE 50S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
50S WITH SOME SPOT 40S. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FOG ATTM DUE
TO PERSISTENT WNW FLOW 5-10MPH THAT HAS BEEN INTACT OVERNIGHT.
ALSO HAVE ADDED IN LIGHT -RW FOR NORTHERN ZONES THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LAST 10-15 MINUTES. WILL
KEEP IN THRU MID-MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY SKC BUT
FEW-SCT100 POSSIBLE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS NNW
5-10KTS BECM SE 5-10KTS FOR GLD...VRB05 FOR MCK. SW 5-10KTS BOTH
SITES BY 06Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011138
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM
LATEST OBS. CURRENTLY...MOST SPOTS IN THE 50S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
50S WITH SOME SPOT 40S. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FOG ATTM DUE
TO PERSISTENT WNW FLOW 5-10MPH THAT HAS BEEN INTACT OVERNIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY SKC BUT
FEW-SCT100 POSSIBLE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS NNW
5-10KTS BECM SE 5-10KTS FOR GLD...VRB05 FOR MCK. SW 5-10KTS BOTH
SITES BY 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011138
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM
LATEST OBS. CURRENTLY...MOST SPOTS IN THE 50S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
50S WITH SOME SPOT 40S. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FOG ATTM DUE
TO PERSISTENT WNW FLOW 5-10MPH THAT HAS BEEN INTACT OVERNIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY SKC BUT
FEW-SCT100 POSSIBLE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS NNW
5-10KTS BECM SE 5-10KTS FOR GLD...VRB05 FOR MCK. SW 5-10KTS BOTH
SITES BY 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010827
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010827
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010609
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AS
TRW/RW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS CLEARED
THE FORECAST AREA. REGION WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS
THRU THE REST OF TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION THRU
12Z MONDAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010609
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AS
TRW/RW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS CLEARED
THE FORECAST AREA. REGION WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS
THRU THE REST OF TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION THRU
12Z MONDAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010145
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010145
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 312321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312115
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 312115
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311806
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED QUICKLY ADVANCED ACROSS THE CWA WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING 3-5 DEGREES AS IT PASSES. TEMPS IN THE MID
UPPER 90S LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THINK
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES TO WARM ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO SEE
WEAK/SPOTTY CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE IN
REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...BUT THIS IS WELL REMOVED FROM
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP NEAR FRONT. GIVEN
THE COOLER TEMPS AND STRONG CAP AM LEANING TOWARDS A LATER
INITIATION IN THIS AREA...WITH MOST LIKELY AREA BEING
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION NEAR SOUTHWEST CWA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311806
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED QUICKLY ADVANCED ACROSS THE CWA WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING 3-5 DEGREES AS IT PASSES. TEMPS IN THE MID
UPPER 90S LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THINK
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES TO WARM ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO SEE
WEAK/SPOTTY CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE IN
REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...BUT THIS IS WELL REMOVED FROM
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP NEAR FRONT. GIVEN
THE COOLER TEMPS AND STRONG CAP AM LEANING TOWARDS A LATER
INITIATION IN THIS AREA...WITH MOST LIKELY AREA BEING
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION NEAR SOUTHWEST CWA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WITH A
MIX OF MID/HIGH CLDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...VCTS/VCSH FOR BOTH SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP LATER TODAY AS STORMS GET MORE ORGANIZED...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY/TIMING. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON 10-20KTS

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WITH A
MIX OF MID/HIGH CLDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...VCTS/VCSH FOR BOTH SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP LATER TODAY AS STORMS GET MORE ORGANIZED...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY/TIMING. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON 10-20KTS

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310837
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TRW/RW THAT HAS DEVELOPED...AND
WILL CARRY THRU UNTIL NEXT ESTF AND/OR 12Z THIS MORNING. BULK OF
ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AREAS EAST OF GOODLAND.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TRW/RW THAT HAS DEVELOPED...AND
WILL CARRY THRU UNTIL NEXT ESTF AND/OR 12Z THIS MORNING. BULK OF
ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AREAS EAST OF GOODLAND.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310537
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND INCLUDE LATEST GUIDANCE INTO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...LOWERED POPS AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
ACTIVITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE COMING IN FROM COLORADO AND CAP HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
OF A TORNADO OR TWO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO HOXIE AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LCLS OF 1300-1600
METERS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND TURNING OF WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
THREATS ARE BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT COULD NOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310537
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND INCLUDE LATEST GUIDANCE INTO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...LOWERED POPS AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
ACTIVITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE COMING IN FROM COLORADO AND CAP HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
OF A TORNADO OR TWO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO HOXIE AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LCLS OF 1300-1600
METERS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND TURNING OF WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
THREATS ARE BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT COULD NOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310254
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND INCLUDE LATEST GUIDANCE INTO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...LOWERED POPS AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
ACTIVITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE COMING IN FROM COLORADO AND CAP HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
OF A TORNADO OR TWO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO HOXIE AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LCLS OF 1300-1600
METERS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND TURNING OF WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
THREATS ARE BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT COULD NOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...
STORMS MAY APPROACH SITES AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS AND WITH THE CAP HOLDING FIRM IN THE TRI-STATE REGION...
REMOVED VCTS MENTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
TO MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PLACED LLWS INTO TAF AS WE SHOULD APPROACH CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...
A FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS TO TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT KMCK IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAN KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310254
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND INCLUDE LATEST GUIDANCE INTO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...LOWERED POPS AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
ACTIVITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE COMING IN FROM COLORADO AND CAP HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
OF A TORNADO OR TWO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO HOXIE AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LCLS OF 1300-1600
METERS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND TURNING OF WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
THREATS ARE BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT COULD NOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...
STORMS MAY APPROACH SITES AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS AND WITH THE CAP HOLDING FIRM IN THE TRI-STATE REGION...
REMOVED VCTS MENTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
TO MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PLACED LLWS INTO TAF AS WE SHOULD APPROACH CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...
A FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS TO TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT KMCK IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAN KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302333
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...
STORMS MAY APPROACH SITES AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS AND WITH THE CAP HOLDING FIRM IN THE TRI-STATE REGION...
REMOVED VCTS MENTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
TO MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PLACED LLWS INTO TAF AS WE SHOULD APPROACH CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...
A FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS TO TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT KMCK IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAN KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302333
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...
STORMS MAY APPROACH SITES AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS AND WITH THE CAP HOLDING FIRM IN THE TRI-STATE REGION...
REMOVED VCTS MENTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
TO MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PLACED LLWS INTO TAF AS WE SHOULD APPROACH CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...
A FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS TO TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT KMCK IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAN KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 302052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 302052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301916
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301916
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301743
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1143 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THIS LATEST UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCT FOR
OBSERVATION TRENDS IN PAST COUPLE HOURS OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARDS MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES PUSHING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES
ACROSS AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE PLAINS.

WITH THIS SET UP FOR THE AREA...WILL BE KEEPING CWA PRECIP-FREE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE EXPECTING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE
THRU THE DAY AS RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN ROCKIES. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDE AREAL COVERAGE
OF TRW FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TROUGH MEANDERS OFF
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDER
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT STRONG WAA TO
OCCUR INTO AREA. THIS WILL PUT 850/925 MB TEMPS +21C TO +25C/+30C TO
+35C RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE GOING FOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AS A
RESULT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S...HAMPERED ONLY BY CLD
COVER FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM




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