Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KGLD 222342
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH OVERCAST SKIES
OBSERVED ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AREA OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE STEADILY
INCREASED THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME IN THE EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO DEVELOP AND MIX THE LOW
LEVEL JET DOWNWARD.  MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT.

TUESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...REACHING A PEAK BY MID MORNING.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING
100 PERCENT FOR SNOWFALL CHANCES BUT THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE ZERO DESPITE THE GOOD LIFT...SO DECIDED TO CAP SNOWFALL
CHANCES AT 80. AM CURRENTLY ONLY ANTICIPATING LESS THAN 3 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS HAVE A BAND OF UP TO 3
INCHES 20-30 MILES SOUTH OF WHAT IS FORECAST. NOT COMPLETELY SURE
WHY MODELS HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE BEST LIFT BUT DID
TREND THE SNOWFALL THAT DIRECTION SINCE ALMOST ALL DATA IS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY SOUTH.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY AS THE MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE CONTINUE TO INCREASE.  MODELS INDICATE THE MIXED LAYER WILL
EXTEND TO AROUND 800MB OR SO ALONG/WEST OF A LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND
YUMA LINE.  THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES REACHING SPEEDS OF 65 MPH BY NOON.
HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE LOCATIONS MEETING WARNING
CRITERIA SO HAVE ISSUED A WARNING ACCORDINGLY.  EAST OF THIS LINE A
STRONG GRADIENT EXISTS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT MIX UP AS
HIGH...HOWEVER THE WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE EAST AS WELL.
THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING AND LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE WARNING.  DID CANCEL THE WATCH FOR DECATUR AND RED
WILLOW COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THE HIGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.

A SECONDARY IMPACT FROM THE HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM THE BLOWING SNOW.  AM EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO BE
UNDER A MILE DURING THE MORNING...POSSIBLY UNDER A QUARTER MILE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY. THOSE TRAVELING SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOWFALL ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHORT TERM RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND ULTIMATELY A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND FINALLY NORTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THU NIGHT-FRI
MORNING. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET A LOT OF MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...WITH BETTER MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM EAST OF US. SO
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WHILE ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL
HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVEN SO...GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SUGGEST A MAJOR SNOW EVENT.

THE LONGER TERM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOL AS A CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS PREVAILS. THE
NEXT SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
AT THIS TIME ANYWAY...BOTH GFS AND THE EC LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
TERMS OF THE UPPER PATTERN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CONTINUING TO MONITOR EVOLVING HIGH WIND AND SNOW/BLOWING SNOW
EVENING...EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 08Z BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO
DETERIORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AT KGLD
(NEAR 50KT) ALONG WITH BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER VIS WITH BLOWING
SNOW AND SNOW. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS IN
VIS AS LOW AS 1/4SM AT KGLD IN THE 12Z- 19Z TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER
ITS TOO EARLY FOR TEMPO GROUP AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PREVAIL
BASED ON TIMING/INTENSITY OF SNOW BAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS BAD AT KMCK WHERE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE IFR
RANGE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON
AN UPWARD TREND IN THE 18-20Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001-002-014-015-028-029.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ013-027-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 222342
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH OVERCAST SKIES
OBSERVED ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AREA OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE STEADILY
INCREASED THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME IN THE EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO DEVELOP AND MIX THE LOW
LEVEL JET DOWNWARD.  MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT.

TUESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...REACHING A PEAK BY MID MORNING.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING
100 PERCENT FOR SNOWFALL CHANCES BUT THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE ZERO DESPITE THE GOOD LIFT...SO DECIDED TO CAP SNOWFALL
CHANCES AT 80. AM CURRENTLY ONLY ANTICIPATING LESS THAN 3 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS HAVE A BAND OF UP TO 3
INCHES 20-30 MILES SOUTH OF WHAT IS FORECAST. NOT COMPLETELY SURE
WHY MODELS HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE BEST LIFT BUT DID
TREND THE SNOWFALL THAT DIRECTION SINCE ALMOST ALL DATA IS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY SOUTH.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY AS THE MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE CONTINUE TO INCREASE.  MODELS INDICATE THE MIXED LAYER WILL
EXTEND TO AROUND 800MB OR SO ALONG/WEST OF A LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND
YUMA LINE.  THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES REACHING SPEEDS OF 65 MPH BY NOON.
HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE LOCATIONS MEETING WARNING
CRITERIA SO HAVE ISSUED A WARNING ACCORDINGLY.  EAST OF THIS LINE A
STRONG GRADIENT EXISTS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT MIX UP AS
HIGH...HOWEVER THE WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE EAST AS WELL.
THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING AND LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE WARNING.  DID CANCEL THE WATCH FOR DECATUR AND RED
WILLOW COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THE HIGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.

A SECONDARY IMPACT FROM THE HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM THE BLOWING SNOW.  AM EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO BE
UNDER A MILE DURING THE MORNING...POSSIBLY UNDER A QUARTER MILE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY. THOSE TRAVELING SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOWFALL ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHORT TERM RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND ULTIMATELY A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND FINALLY NORTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THU NIGHT-FRI
MORNING. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET A LOT OF MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...WITH BETTER MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM EAST OF US. SO
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WHILE ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL
HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVEN SO...GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SUGGEST A MAJOR SNOW EVENT.

THE LONGER TERM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOL AS A CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS PREVAILS. THE
NEXT SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
AT THIS TIME ANYWAY...BOTH GFS AND THE EC LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
TERMS OF THE UPPER PATTERN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CONTINUING TO MONITOR EVOLVING HIGH WIND AND SNOW/BLOWING SNOW
EVENING...EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 08Z BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO
DETERIORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AT KGLD
(NEAR 50KT) ALONG WITH BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER VIS WITH BLOWING
SNOW AND SNOW. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS IN
VIS AS LOW AS 1/4SM AT KGLD IN THE 12Z- 19Z TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER
ITS TOO EARLY FOR TEMPO GROUP AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PREVAIL
BASED ON TIMING/INTENSITY OF SNOW BAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS BAD AT KMCK WHERE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE IFR
RANGE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON
AN UPWARD TREND IN THE 18-20Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001-002-014-015-028-029.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ013-027-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 222201
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
301 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH OVERCAST SKIES
OBSERVED ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AREA OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE STEADILY
INCREASED THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME IN THE EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO DEVELOP AND MIX THE LOW
LEVEL JET DOWNWARD.  MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT.

TUESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...REACHING A PEAK BY MID MORNING.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING
100 PERCENT FOR SNOWFALL CHANCES BUT THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE ZERO DESPITE THE GOOD LIFT...SO DECIDED TO CAP SNOWFALL
CHANCES AT 80. AM CURRENTLY ONLY ANTICIPATING LESS THAN 3 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS HAVE A BAND OF UP TO 3
INCHES 20-30 MILES SOUTH OF WHAT IS FORECAST. NOT COMPLETELY SURE
WHY MODELS HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE BEST LIFT BUT DID
TREND THE SNOWFALL THAT DIRECTION SINCE ALMOST ALL DATA IS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY SOUTH.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY AS THE MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE CONTINUE TO INCREASE.  MODELS INDICATE THE MIXED LAYER WILL
EXTEND TO AROUND 800MB OR SO ALONG/WEST OF A LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND
YUMA LINE.  THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES REACHING SPEEDS OF 65 MPH BY NOON.
HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE LOCATIONS MEETING WARNING
CRITERIA SO HAVE ISSUED A WARNING ACCORDINGLY.  EAST OF THIS LINE A
STRONG GRADIENT EXISTS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT MIX UP AS
HIGH...HOWEVER THE WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE EAST AS WELL.
THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING AND LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE WARNING.  DID CANCEL THE WATCH FOR DECATUR AND RED
WILLOW COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THE HIGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.

A SECONDARY IMPACT FROM THE HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM THE BLOWING SNOW.  AM EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO BE
UNDER A MILE DURING THE MORNING...POSSIBLY UNDER A QUARTER MILE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY. THOSE TRAVELING SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOWFALL ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHORT TERM RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND ULTIMATELY A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND FINALLY NORTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THU NIGHT-FRI
MORNING. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET A LOT OF MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...WITH BETTER MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM EAST OF US. SO
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WHILE ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL
HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVEN SO...GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SUGGEST A MAJOR SNOW EVENT.

THE LONGER TERM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOL AS A CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS PREVAILS. THE
NEXT SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
AT THIS TIME ANYWAY...BOTH GFS AND THE EC LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
TERMS OF THE UPPER PATTERN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KGLD...WITH A BRIEF BREAK FOR
KMCK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR BOTH SITES. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SNOWFALL MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL FALL WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND THE
SNOW. AM CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VIS.
LESS THAN A MILE FOR KGLD BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO HAVE
IT AS A PREVAILING GROUP AT THIS TIME. VIS. AT KMCK SHOULD NOT BE
AS LOW SINCE THE SITE WILL BE ON THE EAST EDGE OF THE
SNOWFALL...WITH VIS. DROPPING TO IFR BRIEFLY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001-002-014-015-028-029.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ013-027-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 222201
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
301 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH OVERCAST SKIES
OBSERVED ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AREA OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE STEADILY
INCREASED THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME IN THE EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO DEVELOP AND MIX THE LOW
LEVEL JET DOWNWARD.  MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT.

TUESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...REACHING A PEAK BY MID MORNING.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING
100 PERCENT FOR SNOWFALL CHANCES BUT THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE ZERO DESPITE THE GOOD LIFT...SO DECIDED TO CAP SNOWFALL
CHANCES AT 80. AM CURRENTLY ONLY ANTICIPATING LESS THAN 3 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS HAVE A BAND OF UP TO 3
INCHES 20-30 MILES SOUTH OF WHAT IS FORECAST. NOT COMPLETELY SURE
WHY MODELS HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE BEST LIFT BUT DID
TREND THE SNOWFALL THAT DIRECTION SINCE ALMOST ALL DATA IS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY SOUTH.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY AS THE MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE CONTINUE TO INCREASE.  MODELS INDICATE THE MIXED LAYER WILL
EXTEND TO AROUND 800MB OR SO ALONG/WEST OF A LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND
YUMA LINE.  THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES REACHING SPEEDS OF 65 MPH BY NOON.
HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE LOCATIONS MEETING WARNING
CRITERIA SO HAVE ISSUED A WARNING ACCORDINGLY.  EAST OF THIS LINE A
STRONG GRADIENT EXISTS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT MIX UP AS
HIGH...HOWEVER THE WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO THE EAST AS WELL.
THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING AND LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE WARNING.  DID CANCEL THE WATCH FOR DECATUR AND RED
WILLOW COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THE HIGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.

A SECONDARY IMPACT FROM THE HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM THE BLOWING SNOW.  AM EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO BE
UNDER A MILE DURING THE MORNING...POSSIBLY UNDER A QUARTER MILE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY. THOSE TRAVELING SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOWFALL ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHORT TERM RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND ULTIMATELY A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND FINALLY NORTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THU NIGHT-FRI
MORNING. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET A LOT OF MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...WITH BETTER MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM EAST OF US. SO
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WHILE ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL
HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVEN SO...GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SUGGEST A MAJOR SNOW EVENT.

THE LONGER TERM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOL AS A CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS PREVAILS. THE
NEXT SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
AT THIS TIME ANYWAY...BOTH GFS AND THE EC LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
TERMS OF THE UPPER PATTERN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KGLD...WITH A BRIEF BREAK FOR
KMCK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR BOTH SITES. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SNOWFALL MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL FALL WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND THE
SNOW. AM CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VIS.
LESS THAN A MILE FOR KGLD BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO HAVE
IT AS A PREVAILING GROUP AT THIS TIME. VIS. AT KMCK SHOULD NOT BE
AS LOW SINCE THE SITE WILL BE ON THE EAST EDGE OF THE
SNOWFALL...WITH VIS. DROPPING TO IFR BRIEFLY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001-002-014-015-028-029.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ013-027-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 221752
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP 50+KT WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO BE
PRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO ALSO EXIST AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER
30 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SEEN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR THE BASIS OF WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KGLD...WITH A BRIEF BREAK FOR
KMCK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR BOTH SITES. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SNOWFALL MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL FALL WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND THE
SNOW. AM CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VIS.
LESS THAN A MILE FOR KGLD BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO HAVE
IT AS A PREVAILING GROUP AT THIS TIME. VIS. AT KMCK SHOULD NOT BE
AS LOW SINCE THE SITE WILL BE ON THE EAST EDGE OF THE
SNOWFALL...WITH VIS. DROPPING TO IFR BRIEFLY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 221752
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP 50+KT WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO BE
PRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO ALSO EXIST AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER
30 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SEEN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR THE BASIS OF WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KGLD...WITH A BRIEF BREAK FOR
KMCK...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR BOTH SITES. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SNOWFALL MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL FALL WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND THE
SNOW. AM CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VIS.
LESS THAN A MILE FOR KGLD BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO HAVE
IT AS A PREVAILING GROUP AT THIS TIME. VIS. AT KMCK SHOULD NOT BE
AS LOW SINCE THE SITE WILL BE ON THE EAST EDGE OF THE
SNOWFALL...WITH VIS. DROPPING TO IFR BRIEFLY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221210
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
510 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP 50+KT WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO BE
PRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO ALSO EXIST AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER
30 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SEEN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR THE BASIS OF WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS LIFTS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA APPROACHESOVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MCK AREA AFTER 09Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD. MCK
WILL START OUT VFR AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING CEILINGS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AFTER
09Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT 12Z TAF PERIOD...EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-50KTS.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS
PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING
DIRT THAT MAY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 221210
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
510 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP 50+KT WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO BE
PRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO ALSO EXIST AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER
30 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SEEN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR THE BASIS OF WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS LIFTS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA APPROACHESOVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MCK AREA AFTER 09Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD. MCK
WILL START OUT VFR AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING CEILINGS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AFTER
09Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT 12Z TAF PERIOD...EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-50KTS.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS
PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING
DIRT THAT MAY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP 50+KT WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO BE
PRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO ALSO EXIST AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER
30 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SEEN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR THE BASIS OF WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP 50+KT WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO BE
PRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO ALSO EXIST AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER
30 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SEEN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR THE BASIS OF WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 221052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP 50+KT WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO BE
PRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO ALSO EXIST AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER
30 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SEEN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR THE BASIS OF WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WILL HELP 50+KT WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO BE
PRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO ALSO EXIST AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER
30 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SEEN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR THE BASIS OF WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 220939
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
239 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW MOVING PRECIP BAND ON REGIONAL RADAR
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
SINCE LAST UPDATE. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX INTO THIS
AREA AS EVENING PROGRESSES...SO MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL STILL
HOLD...WITH ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST. SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND TEMPS AS WELL DUE TO
POSITION OF TROUGH FROM LATEST OBS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220939
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
239 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW MOVING PRECIP BAND ON REGIONAL RADAR
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
SINCE LAST UPDATE. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX INTO THIS
AREA AS EVENING PROGRESSES...SO MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL STILL
HOLD...WITH ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST. SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND TEMPS AS WELL DUE TO
POSITION OF TROUGH FROM LATEST OBS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 220544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW MOVING PRECIP BAND ON REGIONAL RADAR
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
SINCE LAST UPDATE. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX INTO THIS
AREA AS EVENING PROGRESSES...SO MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL STILL
HOLD...WITH ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST. SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND TEMPS AS WELL DUE TO
POSITION OF TROUGH FROM LATEST OBS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW MOVING PRECIP BAND ON REGIONAL RADAR
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
SINCE LAST UPDATE. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX INTO THIS
AREA AS EVENING PROGRESSES...SO MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL STILL
HOLD...WITH ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST. SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND TEMPS AS WELL DUE TO
POSITION OF TROUGH FROM LATEST OBS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 220305
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
805 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW MOVING PRECIP BAND ON REGIONAL RADAR
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
SINCE LAST UPDATE. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX INTO THIS
AREA AS EVENING PROGRESSES...SO MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL STILL
HOLD...WITH ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST. SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND TEMPS AS WELL DUE TO
POSITION OF TROUGH FROM LATEST OBS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 220305
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
805 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW MOVING PRECIP BAND ON REGIONAL RADAR
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
SINCE LAST UPDATE. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX INTO THIS
AREA AS EVENING PROGRESSES...SO MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL STILL
HOLD...WITH ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST. SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND TEMPS AS WELL DUE TO
POSITION OF TROUGH FROM LATEST OBS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220058
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
558 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BASED ON
REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR LIMON COLORADO...WHICH TIES IN WELL WITH
LATEST RADAR TREND. STILL KEPT MENTION OF ANY LIGHT RAIN MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUM. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK...INCLUDING HIGH WIND WATCH.

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A MIX OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COLORADO/KANSAS REGION WITH
AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO SEEING A SHIFT TO WNW...WHILE KANSAS IS
LOOKING AT WSW FLOW. TREND WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY REGIME OVERNIGHT. ANY ECHOES CURRENTLY SHOWING
PRECIP ON AREA OBS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
TO GOING FORECAST...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS TEMPS/WINDS IN NEXT COUPLE
HOURS FOR UPCOMING ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 220058
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
558 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BASED ON
REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR LIMON COLORADO...WHICH TIES IN WELL WITH
LATEST RADAR TREND. STILL KEPT MENTION OF ANY LIGHT RAIN MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUM. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK...INCLUDING HIGH WIND WATCH.

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A MIX OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COLORADO/KANSAS REGION WITH
AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO SEEING A SHIFT TO WNW...WHILE KANSAS IS
LOOKING AT WSW FLOW. TREND WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY REGIME OVERNIGHT. ANY ECHOES CURRENTLY SHOWING
PRECIP ON AREA OBS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
TO GOING FORECAST...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS TEMPS/WINDS IN NEXT COUPLE
HOURS FOR UPCOMING ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220058
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
558 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BASED ON
REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR LIMON COLORADO...WHICH TIES IN WELL WITH
LATEST RADAR TREND. STILL KEPT MENTION OF ANY LIGHT RAIN MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUM. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK...INCLUDING HIGH WIND WATCH.

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A MIX OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COLORADO/KANSAS REGION WITH
AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO SEEING A SHIFT TO WNW...WHILE KANSAS IS
LOOKING AT WSW FLOW. TREND WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY REGIME OVERNIGHT. ANY ECHOES CURRENTLY SHOWING
PRECIP ON AREA OBS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
TO GOING FORECAST...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS TEMPS/WINDS IN NEXT COUPLE
HOURS FOR UPCOMING ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220058
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
558 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BASED ON
REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR LIMON COLORADO...WHICH TIES IN WELL WITH
LATEST RADAR TREND. STILL KEPT MENTION OF ANY LIGHT RAIN MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUM. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK...INCLUDING HIGH WIND WATCH.

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A MIX OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COLORADO/KANSAS REGION WITH
AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO SEEING A SHIFT TO WNW...WHILE KANSAS IS
LOOKING AT WSW FLOW. TREND WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY REGIME OVERNIGHT. ANY ECHOES CURRENTLY SHOWING
PRECIP ON AREA OBS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
TO GOING FORECAST...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS TEMPS/WINDS IN NEXT COUPLE
HOURS FOR UPCOMING ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 220015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A MIX OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
COLORADO/KANSAS REGION WITH AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO SEEING A
SHIFT TO WNW...WHILE KANSAS IS LOOKING AT WSW FLOW. TREND WILL
CONTINUE TOWARDS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY REGIME OVERNIGHT. ANY ECHOES
CURRENTLY SHOWING PRECIP ON AREA OBS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS TEMPS/WINDS IN
NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR UPCOMING ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A MIX OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
COLORADO/KANSAS REGION WITH AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO SEEING A
SHIFT TO WNW...WHILE KANSAS IS LOOKING AT WSW FLOW. TREND WILL
CONTINUE TOWARDS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY REGIME OVERNIGHT. ANY ECHOES
CURRENTLY SHOWING PRECIP ON AREA OBS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS TEMPS/WINDS IN
NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR UPCOMING ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 220015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A MIX OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
COLORADO/KANSAS REGION WITH AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO SEEING A
SHIFT TO WNW...WHILE KANSAS IS LOOKING AT WSW FLOW. TREND WILL
CONTINUE TOWARDS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY REGIME OVERNIGHT. ANY ECHOES
CURRENTLY SHOWING PRECIP ON AREA OBS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS TEMPS/WINDS IN
NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR UPCOMING ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A MIX OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
COLORADO/KANSAS REGION WITH AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO SEEING A
SHIFT TO WNW...WHILE KANSAS IS LOOKING AT WSW FLOW. TREND WILL
CONTINUE TOWARDS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY REGIME OVERNIGHT. ANY ECHOES
CURRENTLY SHOWING PRECIP ON AREA OBS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS TEMPS/WINDS IN
NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR UPCOMING ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 212334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 212334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
AT LEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH SCT-BKN050-060
BKN100-150. BETWEEN 04Z-09Z...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM AT TIMES AND BKN030 FOR KMCK. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE WNW BETWEEN 02Z-05Z. WINDS SPEEDS
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAT 35KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 212107
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
ATLEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.



WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENT. KMCK
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 212107
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONWARD. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DETER SNOWFALL
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL THE
STABLE LAPSE RATES HAVE ON THE WEAK LIFT.  COULD SEE EQUAL CHANCES
OF SNOW OCCURRING OR NOT OCCURRING AT THIS POINT WHERE THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO FORM...ALLOWING
SOME OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE GROUND.
VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SNOWFALL RATE IS HIGHEST.  THE STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED THE DRIFTS SHOULD NOT BE VERY DEEP AND ONLY
CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS.

TUESDAY MORNING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING BY NOON AND SHIFTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP.  THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS
SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN IMPACT TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT DEVELOP AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.  POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS DEVELOPING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BY NOON WEST OF HWY 83.  HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF EITHER WIND
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 40 MPH OR MORE FOR
ATLEAST AN HOUR TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO SUNSET.

ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WEST OF A
LEOTI TO GOODLAND AND YUMA LINE.  DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING...THE ADDED EFFECT OF THE HIGH WIND MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO APPROACH A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.  DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS...ANY TILLED FIELDS
OR FIELDS WITH SPARSE VEGETATION THAT HAVE DRIED OUT SINCE THE LAST
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST.

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE MIXED LAYER
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT TO BREEZY.



WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH EITHER TAKING IT FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER NORTH OPTION
WHICH MEANS LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIP
FRIDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENT. KMCK
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 212044
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENT. KMCK
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 212044
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENT. KMCK
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211741
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA IN PLUME OF HIGHER TDS TO THE EAST OF
SFC TROUGH NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ADVANCING AIRMASS AND EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. UNSURE HOW
FAR NORTH TO BRING THE DENSER FOG AS SFC HEATING WILL SOON START
TO OFFSET THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...FOR NOW INCLUDED I70 FROM
OAKLEY TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
FURTHER REVISIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENT. KMCK
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY SUNRISE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211741
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA IN PLUME OF HIGHER TDS TO THE EAST OF
SFC TROUGH NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ADVANCING AIRMASS AND EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. UNSURE HOW
FAR NORTH TO BRING THE DENSER FOG AS SFC HEATING WILL SOON START
TO OFFSET THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...FOR NOW INCLUDED I70 FROM
OAKLEY TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
FURTHER REVISIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENT. KMCK
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY SUNRISE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
653 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA IN PLUME OF HIGHER TDS TO THE EAST OF
SFC TROUGH NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ADVANCING AIRMASS AND EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. UNSURE HOW
FAR NORTH TO BRING THE DENSER FOG AS SFC HEATING WILL SOON START
TO OFFSET THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...FOR NOW INCLUDED I70 FROM
OAKLEY TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
FURTHER REVISIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ028-029-
     042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
653 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA IN PLUME OF HIGHER TDS TO THE EAST OF
SFC TROUGH NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ADVANCING AIRMASS AND EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. UNSURE HOW
FAR NORTH TO BRING THE DENSER FOG AS SFC HEATING WILL SOON START
TO OFFSET THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...FOR NOW INCLUDED I70 FROM
OAKLEY TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
FURTHER REVISIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ028-029-
     042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
653 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA IN PLUME OF HIGHER TDS TO THE EAST OF
SFC TROUGH NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ADVANCING AIRMASS AND EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. UNSURE HOW
FAR NORTH TO BRING THE DENSER FOG AS SFC HEATING WILL SOON START
TO OFFSET THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...FOR NOW INCLUDED I70 FROM
OAKLEY TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
FURTHER REVISIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ028-029-
     042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
653 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA IN PLUME OF HIGHER TDS TO THE EAST OF
SFC TROUGH NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ADVANCING AIRMASS AND EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. UNSURE HOW
FAR NORTH TO BRING THE DENSER FOG AS SFC HEATING WILL SOON START
TO OFFSET THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...FOR NOW INCLUDED I70 FROM
OAKLEY TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
FURTHER REVISIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ028-029-
     042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211152
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
452 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211152
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
452 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211152
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
452 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211152
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
452 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
312 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT-BKN060-150 SKY COVER. WINDS WSW WINDS THRU 00Z
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WNW. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU 15Z-
17Z...THEN 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
312 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT-BKN060-150 SKY COVER. WINDS WSW WINDS THRU 00Z
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WNW. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU 15Z-
17Z...THEN 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
312 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT-BKN060-150 SKY COVER. WINDS WSW WINDS THRU 00Z
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WNW. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU 15Z-
17Z...THEN 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
312 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT-BKN060-150 SKY COVER. WINDS WSW WINDS THRU 00Z
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WNW. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU 15Z-
17Z...THEN 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 210924
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS UPDATE WILL GIVE WAY TO
NEXT ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE/ROCKIES. STILL EXPECTING A VARIABLE SKIES
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE
SOME BREAKS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME
TWEAKS WERE MADE AS WELL TO TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT FROM LATEST
OBS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT-BKN060-150 SKY COVER. WINDS WSW WINDS THRU 00Z
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WNW. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU 15Z-
17Z...THEN 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210924
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS UPDATE WILL GIVE WAY TO
NEXT ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE/ROCKIES. STILL EXPECTING A VARIABLE SKIES
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE
SOME BREAKS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME
TWEAKS WERE MADE AS WELL TO TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT FROM LATEST
OBS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT-BKN060-150 SKY COVER. WINDS WSW WINDS THRU 00Z
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WNW. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU 15Z-
17Z...THEN 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 210526
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS UPDATE WILL GIVE WAY TO
NEXT ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE/ROCKIES. STILL EXPECTING A VARIABLE SKIES
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE
SOME BREAKS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME
TWEAKS WERE MADE AS WELL TO TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT FROM LATEST
OBS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS. WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE
LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT-BKN060-150 SKY COVER. WINDS WSW WINDS THRU 00Z
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WNW. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU 15Z-
17Z...THEN 10-20KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210526
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS UPDATE WILL GIVE WAY TO
NEXT ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE/ROCKIES. STILL EXPECTING A VARIABLE SKIES
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE
SOME BREAKS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME
TWEAKS WERE MADE AS WELL TO TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT FROM LATEST
OBS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS. WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE
LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT-BKN060-150 SKY COVER. WINDS WSW WINDS THRU 00Z
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WNW. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU 15Z-
17Z...THEN 10-20KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 210309
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
809 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS UPDATE WILL GIVE WAY TO
NEXT ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE/ROCKIES. STILL EXPECTING A VARIABLE SKIES
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE
SOME BREAKS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME
TWEAKS WERE MADE AS WELL TO TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT FROM LATEST
OBS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS. WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE
LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL
BE A MIX OF SCT-BKN070-200 DURING THIS TIME. WSW WINDS 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE REGION LIES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S THRU
THE MID 40S. AREA WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD CONDITIONS OVER
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CLEAR SPOT OVER EASTERN
COLORADO SHIFTING EAST...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
MENTION OF CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS IN GOING FORECAST ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT MAY UPDATE AFTER CLEAR SKIES ENSUES TO SEE
HOW TEMPS DROP IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS. WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE
LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL
BE A MIX OF SCT-BKN070-200 DURING THIS TIME. WSW WINDS 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE REGION LIES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S THRU
THE MID 40S. AREA WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD CONDITIONS OVER
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CLEAR SPOT OVER EASTERN
COLORADO SHIFTING EAST...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
MENTION OF CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS IN GOING FORECAST ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT MAY UPDATE AFTER CLEAR SKIES ENSUES TO SEE
HOW TEMPS DROP IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS. WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE
LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL
BE A MIX OF SCT-BKN070-200 DURING THIS TIME. WSW WINDS 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 202326
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS. WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE
LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL
BE A MIX OF SCT-BKN070-200 DURING THIS TIME. WSW WINDS 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 202326
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS. WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE
LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL
BE A MIX OF SCT-BKN070-200 DURING THIS TIME. WSW WINDS 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 202113
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS.  WITH A SATURERATED
ENVIRONMENT AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA.  AS THE LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL.  HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.



TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. KGLD
AND KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 202113
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS.  WITH A SATURERATED
ENVIRONMENT AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA.  AS THE LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL.  HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.



TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. KGLD
AND KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 202006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
106 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. KGLD
AND KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 202006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
106 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. KGLD
AND KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 201731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF FOG EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS NOT YET
DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPEARING TO HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE
NEAR SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED LIGHT WESTERLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING HAS DECREASED. WE MAY STILL
DEVELOP FOG RIGHT NEAR SUNRISE AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IF
TEMPERATURES TANK...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND REMOVE FOG
THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE MONDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TURNS NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BUT ALL SEEM TO
FALL MORE IN LINE BY MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING THE INITIAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND STARTING TO LIFT IT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE THE SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA DIVES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
FURTHER AMPLIFY THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE ALL
SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AS THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ALONG THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. KGLD
AND KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 201731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF FOG EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS NOT YET
DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPEARING TO HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE
NEAR SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED LIGHT WESTERLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING HAS DECREASED. WE MAY STILL
DEVELOP FOG RIGHT NEAR SUNRISE AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IF
TEMPERATURES TANK...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND REMOVE FOG
THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE MONDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TURNS NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BUT ALL SEEM TO
FALL MORE IN LINE BY MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING THE INITIAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND STARTING TO LIFT IT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE THE SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA DIVES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
FURTHER AMPLIFY THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE ALL
SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AS THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ALONG THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. KGLD
AND KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 201131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
431 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF FOG EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS NOT YET
DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPEARING TO HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE
NEAR SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED LIGHT WESTERLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING HAS DECREASED. WE MAY STILL
DEVELOP FOG RIGHT NEAR SUNRISE AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IF
TEMPERATURES TANK...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND REMOVE FOG
THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE MONDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TURNS NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BUT ALL SEEM TO
FALL MORE IN LINE BY MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING THE INITIAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND STARTING TO LIFT IT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE THE SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA DIVES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
FURTHER AMPLIFY THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE ALL
SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AS THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ALONG THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
MOVES EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THIS
EVENING.  CONDITIONS AT MCK AND GLD WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BY 03Z AT BOTH LOCATIONS WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AS TH
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 201131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
431 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF FOG EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS NOT YET
DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPEARING TO HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE
NEAR SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED LIGHT WESTERLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING HAS DECREASED. WE MAY STILL
DEVELOP FOG RIGHT NEAR SUNRISE AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IF
TEMPERATURES TANK...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND REMOVE FOG
THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE MONDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TURNS NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BUT ALL SEEM TO
FALL MORE IN LINE BY MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING THE INITIAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND STARTING TO LIFT IT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE THE SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA DIVES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
FURTHER AMPLIFY THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE ALL
SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AS THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ALONG THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
MOVES EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THIS
EVENING.  CONDITIONS AT MCK AND GLD WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BY 03Z AT BOTH LOCATIONS WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AS TH
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 201013
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
313 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF FOG EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS NOT YET
DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPEARING TO HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE
NEAR SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED LIGHT WESTERLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING HAS DECREASED. WE MAY STILL
DEVELOP FOG RIGHT NEAR SUNRISE AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IF
TEMPERATURES TANK...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND REMOVE FOG
THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE MONDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TURNS NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BUT ALL SEEM TO
FALL MORE IN LINE BY MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING THE INITIAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND STARTING TO LIFT IT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE THE SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA DIVES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
FURTHER AMPLIFY THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE ALL
SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AS THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ALONG THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SCT200 WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCT050 SCT150 BY 00Z SUNDAY. KMCK MAY SEE FOG DOWN TO
4SM AT TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL MEANDER THRU
FORECAST PERIOD FROM WSW TO WNW AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 201013
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
313 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF FOG EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS NOT YET
DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPEARING TO HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE
NEAR SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED LIGHT WESTERLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING HAS DECREASED. WE MAY STILL
DEVELOP FOG RIGHT NEAR SUNRISE AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IF
TEMPERATURES TANK...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND REMOVE FOG
THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE MONDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TURNS NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BUT ALL SEEM TO
FALL MORE IN LINE BY MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING THE INITIAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND STARTING TO LIFT IT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE THE SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA DIVES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
FURTHER AMPLIFY THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE ALL
SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AS THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ALONG THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SCT200 WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCT050 SCT150 BY 00Z SUNDAY. KMCK MAY SEE FOG DOWN TO
4SM AT TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL MEANDER THRU
FORECAST PERIOD FROM WSW TO WNW AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 200928 CCA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONE PERIPHERIES. LATEST OBS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA ARE SHOWING
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. MOST IS FORMING IN AREAS OF LIGHT WIND AWAY
FROM THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE...AND ALSO
NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
OUR EAST. HAVE CARRIED THRU 12Z SATURDAY...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ONGOING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FA. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.  THE NAM LOWERS BOUNDARY LAYER RH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BELOW 60 PERCENT RH AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. DUE TO THIS
DRYING TREND DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST.

THE SNOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SCT200 WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCT050 SCT150 BY 00Z SUNDAY. KMCK MAY SEE FOG DOWN TO
4SM AT TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL MEANDER THRU
FORECAST PERIOD FROM WSW TO WNW AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 200928
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONE PERIPHERIES. LATEST OBS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA ARE SHOWING
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. MOST IS FORMING IN AREAS OF LIGHT WIND AWAY
FROM THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE...AND ALSO
NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
OUR EAST. HAVE CARRIED THRU 12Z SATURDAY...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ONGOING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FA. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.  THE NAM LOWERS BOUNDARY LAYER RH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BELOW 60 PERCENT RH AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. DUE TO THIS
DRYING TREND DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST.

THE SNOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SCT200 WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCT050 SCT150 BY 00Z SUNDAY. KMCK MAY SEE FOG DOWN TO
4SM AT TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL MEANDER THRU
FORECAST PERIOD FROM WSW TO WNW AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 200928
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONE PERIPHERIES. LATEST OBS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA ARE SHOWING
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. MOST IS FORMING IN AREAS OF LIGHT WIND AWAY
FROM THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE...AND ALSO
NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
OUR EAST. HAVE CARRIED THRU 12Z SATURDAY...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ONGOING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FA. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.  THE NAM LOWERS BOUNDARY LAYER RH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BELOW 60 PERCENT RH AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. DUE TO THIS
DRYING TREND DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST.

THE SNOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SCT200 WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCT050 SCT150 BY 00Z SUNDAY. KMCK MAY SEE FOG DOWN TO
4SM AT TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL MEANDER THRU
FORECAST PERIOD FROM WSW TO WNW AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 200533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONE PERIPHERIES. LATEST OBS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA ARE SHOWING
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. MOST IS FORMING IN AREAS OF LIGHT WIND AWAY
FROM THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE...AND ALSO
NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
OUR EAST. HAVE CARRIED THRU 12Z SATURDAY...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ONGOING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FA. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.  THE NAM LOWERS BOUNDARY LAYER RH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BELOW 60 PERCENT RH AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. DUE TO THIS
DRYING TREND DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST.

THE SNOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND DEEPEN AS IT
DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
UPPER FLOW FROM THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW TO A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF FAST-MOVING
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND A STRONG UPPER /250 MB/ JET
WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S GIVEN FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C. COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER IN MON-TUE WHEN THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE L-M 40S.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH...LOCATION
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHER NORTH AND SHALLOWER WITH MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT WHILE THE EC SOLUTION IS MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY IS LOW AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A
CHANCE OF PRECIP AND COLDER TEMPS THU-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SCT200 WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCT050 SCT150 BY 00Z SUNDAY. KMCK MAY SEE FOG DOWN TO
4SM AT TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL MEANDER THRU
FORECAST PERIOD FROM WSW TO WNW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 200533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONE PERIPHERIES. LATEST OBS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA ARE SHOWING
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. MOST IS FORMING IN AREAS OF LIGHT WIND AWAY
FROM THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE...AND ALSO
NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
OUR EAST. HAVE CARRIED THRU 12Z SATURDAY...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ONGOING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FA. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.  THE NAM LOWERS BOUNDARY LAYER RH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BELOW 60 PERCENT RH AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. DUE TO THIS
DRYING TREND DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST.

THE SNOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND DEEPEN AS IT
DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
UPPER FLOW FROM THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW TO A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF FAST-MOVING
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND A STRONG UPPER /250 MB/ JET
WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S GIVEN FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C. COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER IN MON-TUE WHEN THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE L-M 40S.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH...LOCATION
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHER NORTH AND SHALLOWER WITH MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT WHILE THE EC SOLUTION IS MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY IS LOW AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A
CHANCE OF PRECIP AND COLDER TEMPS THU-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SCT200 WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCT050 SCT150 BY 00Z SUNDAY. KMCK MAY SEE FOG DOWN TO
4SM AT TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL MEANDER THRU
FORECAST PERIOD FROM WSW TO WNW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities