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000
FXUS63 KGLD 021045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
NOON TIME LEAVING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WITH
THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A ONE TO THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CENTER OF 12MB 3 HOURLY
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ENTERS YUMA COUNTY AROUND 07Z STEADILY MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE BY 09Z THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
WIND ADVISORY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS AN AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MODESTLY LOW INHIBITION. THIS
AREA OF INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING
130+KT 250 JET. FELT THAT A THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT AROUND
09Z FOR AREAS FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER. FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO STRATTON TO NEAR WILD HORSE.
WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE KIT CARSON TO AROYA
COLORADO AREA AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR WRAY COLORADO TO NEAR GEM
AND HILL CITY KANSAS. FREEZE POSSIBLE IN RED WILLOW COUNTY.
HILITES POSSIBLY NEEDED. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE AT
MCCOOK (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HAVE ADDED RECORD/NEAR RECORD
WORDING TO THE ZFPGLD.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 70 TO 75 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.  STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA.  EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

KGLD...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
15Z BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM 16Z-07Z. FROM 08Z-11Z A
STRONG COLD FRONT AIDED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINAL. THERE WILL BE A ONE TO THREE HOUR PERIOD OF NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 35KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER AND MVFR CIGS. FROM
11Z-12Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BUT WINDS STILL GUSTY.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
15Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN FROM 16Z-07Z. SIMILAR TO KGLD THE
08Z-11Z TIME FRAME FEATURES A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. MVFR
CIGS ALSO EXPECTED IN THIS 3 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
SHORTLY AFTER 11Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z...AT THIS TIME DID NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST
GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER 4TH AT
MCCOOK NEBRASKA. CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE IS 32 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1911.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 021045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
NOON TIME LEAVING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WITH
THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A ONE TO THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CENTER OF 12MB 3 HOURLY
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ENTERS YUMA COUNTY AROUND 07Z STEADILY MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE BY 09Z THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
WIND ADVISORY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS AN AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MODESTLY LOW INHIBITION. THIS
AREA OF INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING
130+KT 250 JET. FELT THAT A THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT AROUND
09Z FOR AREAS FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER. FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO STRATTON TO NEAR WILD HORSE.
WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE KIT CARSON TO AROYA
COLORADO AREA AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR WRAY COLORADO TO NEAR GEM
AND HILL CITY KANSAS. FREEZE POSSIBLE IN RED WILLOW COUNTY.
HILITES POSSIBLY NEEDED. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE AT
MCCOOK (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HAVE ADDED RECORD/NEAR RECORD
WORDING TO THE ZFPGLD.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 70 TO 75 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.  STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA.  EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

KGLD...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
15Z BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM 16Z-07Z. FROM 08Z-11Z A
STRONG COLD FRONT AIDED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINAL. THERE WILL BE A ONE TO THREE HOUR PERIOD OF NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 35KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER AND MVFR CIGS. FROM
11Z-12Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BUT WINDS STILL GUSTY.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
15Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN FROM 16Z-07Z. SIMILAR TO KGLD THE
08Z-11Z TIME FRAME FEATURES A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. MVFR
CIGS ALSO EXPECTED IN THIS 3 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
SHORTLY AFTER 11Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z...AT THIS TIME DID NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST
GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER 4TH AT
MCCOOK NEBRASKA. CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE IS 32 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1911.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
NOON TIME LEAVING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WITH
THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A ONE TO THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CENTER OF 12MB 3 HOURLY
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ENTERS YUMA COUNTY AROUND 07Z STEADILY MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE BY 09Z THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
WIND ADVISORY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS AN AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MODESTLY LOW INHIBITION. THIS
AREA OF INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING
130+KT 250 JET. FELT THAT A THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT AROUND
09Z FOR AREAS FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER. FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO STRATTON TO NEAR WILD HORSE.
WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE KIT CARSON TO AROYA
COLORADO AREA AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR WRAY COLORADO TO NEAR GEM
AND HILL CITY KANSAS. FREEZE POSSIBLE IN RED WILLOW COUNTY.
HILITES POSSIBLY NEEDED. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE AT
MCCOOK (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HAVE ADDED RECORD/NEAR RECORD
WORDING TO THE ZFPGLD.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 70 TO 75 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.  STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA.  EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER 4TH AT
MCCOOK NEBRASKA. CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE IS 32 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1911.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
CLIMATE...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
NOON TIME LEAVING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WITH
THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A ONE TO THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CENTER OF 12MB 3 HOURLY
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ENTERS YUMA COUNTY AROUND 07Z STEADILY MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE BY 09Z THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
WIND ADVISORY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS AN AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MODESTLY LOW INHIBITION. THIS
AREA OF INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING
130+KT 250 JET. FELT THAT A THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT AROUND
09Z FOR AREAS FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER. FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO STRATTON TO NEAR WILD HORSE.
WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE KIT CARSON TO AROYA
COLORADO AREA AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR WRAY COLORADO TO NEAR GEM
AND HILL CITY KANSAS. FREEZE POSSIBLE IN RED WILLOW COUNTY.
HILITES POSSIBLY NEEDED. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE AT
MCCOOK (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HAVE ADDED RECORD/NEAR RECORD
WORDING TO THE ZFPGLD.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 70 TO 75 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.  STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA.  EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER 4TH AT
MCCOOK NEBRASKA. CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE IS 32 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1911.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
CLIMATE...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 020819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.  STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA.  EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 020819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.  STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA.  EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 020517
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1117 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 020517
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1117 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 012338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS COMING DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL BY MID EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 012338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS COMING DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL BY MID EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011951
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011951
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011939
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
139 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011939
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
139 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KGLD SHOWS STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET OFF THE
GROUND...WHICH GIVES SOME CONCERN AS TO LLWS. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH LATER THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO KGLD AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY FOG HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF KMCK THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING AREAS OF FOG VERY NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL WARRANTS AN MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN A FEW HOURS TOWARD
MID MORNING TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KGLD SHOWS STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET OFF THE
GROUND...WHICH GIVES SOME CONCERN AS TO LLWS. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH LATER THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO KGLD AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY FOG HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF KMCK THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING AREAS OF FOG VERY NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL WARRANTS AN MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN A FEW HOURS TOWARD
MID MORNING TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 011033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010802
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY
CONDITIONS...SO DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE 06-12Z PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 010802
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY
CONDITIONS...SO DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE 06-12Z PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010147
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010147
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 302321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301124
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A FEW PASSING VFR CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE TRI STATE AREA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY FOR KGLD. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER TO MOVE
BACK OVER THE TAF SITE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
LEADING TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PASSING CLOUDS WILL ALSO EXIT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TODAY FOR
KMCK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HINT OF GUSTY WINDS FOR
KMCK DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COMPARED TO MORE CALM
CONDITIONS IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...SO PLACED A MENTION OF 20 KT
GUSTS. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301124
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A FEW PASSING VFR CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE TRI STATE AREA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY FOR KGLD. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER TO MOVE
BACK OVER THE TAF SITE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
LEADING TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PASSING CLOUDS WILL ALSO EXIT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TODAY FOR
KMCK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HINT OF GUSTY WINDS FOR
KMCK DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COMPARED TO MORE CALM
CONDITIONS IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...SO PLACED A MENTION OF 20 KT
GUSTS. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300532
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300532
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300258
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
858 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT
TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING CLRING
OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. DECREASING WINDS
WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLDS DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW
CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU 02Z-03Z TUESDAY...THEN TRENDING
DOWN TO MVFR AS -TSRA MOVES THRU AREA BRINGING VSBY DOWN TO 4-5SM
AT TIMES THRU 06Z TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER WITH VCSH/BKN060
TRENDING TO FEW-SCT030-040. SOME FOG FOR BOTH SITES MAY DEVELOP BY
10Z-11Z FOR A FEW HRS WITH SOME 6SM POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE WIND
DEPENDENT. WINDS SSE 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THRU 06Z FOR
KGLD THEN SSW 5-15KTS. KMCK WILL SEE SHIFT TO SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY
11Z TUESDAY


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300258
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
858 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT
TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING CLRING
OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. DECREASING WINDS
WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLDS DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW
CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU 02Z-03Z TUESDAY...THEN TRENDING
DOWN TO MVFR AS -TSRA MOVES THRU AREA BRINGING VSBY DOWN TO 4-5SM
AT TIMES THRU 06Z TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER WITH VCSH/BKN060
TRENDING TO FEW-SCT030-040. SOME FOG FOR BOTH SITES MAY DEVELOP BY
10Z-11Z FOR A FEW HRS WITH SOME 6SM POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE WIND
DEPENDENT. WINDS SSE 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THRU 06Z FOR
KGLD THEN SSW 5-15KTS. KMCK WILL SEE SHIFT TO SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY
11Z TUESDAY


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292330
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO EXTENDED THE TIMING FOR THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. LATEST OBS FROM ACROSS THE ADVISORY STILL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH OR HIGHER...AND WITH LOW STILL OFF TO THE
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND PRODUCT TO 03Z. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT
TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING CLRING
OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. DECREASING WINDS
WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLDS DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW
CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU 02Z-03Z TUESDAY...THEN TRENDING
DOWN TO MVFR AS -TSRA MOVES THRU AREA BRINGING VSBY DOWN TO 4-5SM
AT TIMES THRU 06Z TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER WITH VCSH/BKN060
TRENDING TO FEW-SCT030-040. SOME FOG FOR BOTH SITES MAY DEVELOP BY
10Z-11Z FOR A FEW HRS WITH SOME 6SM POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE WIND
DEPENDENT. WINDS SSE 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THRU 06Z FOR
KGLD THEN SSW 5-15KTS. KMCK WILL SEE SHIFT TO SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY
11Z TUESDAY

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292330
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO EXTENDED THE TIMING FOR THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. LATEST OBS FROM ACROSS THE ADVISORY STILL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH OR HIGHER...AND WITH LOW STILL OFF TO THE
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND PRODUCT TO 03Z. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT
TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING CLRING
OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. DECREASING WINDS
WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLDS DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW
CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES THRU 02Z-03Z TUESDAY...THEN TRENDING
DOWN TO MVFR AS -TSRA MOVES THRU AREA BRINGING VSBY DOWN TO 4-5SM
AT TIMES THRU 06Z TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER WITH VCSH/BKN060
TRENDING TO FEW-SCT030-040. SOME FOG FOR BOTH SITES MAY DEVELOP BY
10Z-11Z FOR A FEW HRS WITH SOME 6SM POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE WIND
DEPENDENT. WINDS SSE 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THRU 06Z FOR
KGLD THEN SSW 5-15KTS. KMCK WILL SEE SHIFT TO SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY
11Z TUESDAY

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292311
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
511 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO EXTENDED THE TIMING FOR THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. LATEST OBS FROM ACROSS THE ADVISORY STILL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH OR HIGHER...AND WITH LOW STILL OFF TO THE
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND PRODUCT TO 03Z. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT
TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING CLRING
OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. DECREASING WINDS
WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLDS DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW
CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN
LOW AND MID CLDS. FROM 23Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY THOUGH...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS UPPER LOW TRAVERSES AREA. MENTION OF
TSRA AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 06Z-09Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SSE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS...BECM SSW 10-15KTS BY
06Z FOR KGLD AND 14Z-15Z FOR KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292311
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
511 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO EXTENDED THE TIMING FOR THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. LATEST OBS FROM ACROSS THE ADVISORY STILL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH OR HIGHER...AND WITH LOW STILL OFF TO THE
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND PRODUCT TO 03Z. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT
TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING CLRING
OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. DECREASING WINDS
WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLDS DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW
CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN
LOW AND MID CLDS. FROM 23Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY THOUGH...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS UPPER LOW TRAVERSES AREA. MENTION OF
TSRA AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 06Z-09Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SSE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS...BECM SSW 10-15KTS BY
06Z FOR KGLD AND 14Z-15Z FOR KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT
TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING CLRING
OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. DECREASING WINDS
WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLDS DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW
CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN
LOW AND MID CLDS. FROM 23Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY THOUGH...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS UPPER LOW TRAVERSES AREA. MENTION OF
TSRA AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 06Z-09Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SSE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS...BECM SSW 10-15KTS BY
06Z FOR KGLD AND 14Z-15Z FOR KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT
TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING CLRING
OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. DECREASING WINDS
WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLDS DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW
CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN
LOW AND MID CLDS. FROM 23Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY THOUGH...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS UPPER LOW TRAVERSES AREA. MENTION OF
TSRA AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 06Z-09Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SSE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS...BECM SSW 10-15KTS BY
06Z FOR KGLD AND 14Z-15Z FOR KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292008
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADD IN TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED BY
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE SAME AREA ALONG WITH
FORECASTED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS DIGGING TOWARD SOUTHWEST CANADA. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN SYSTEM HAS SURGED NORTH FROM
YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY. AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AND CLOSE WITH THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...NAM AND GFS DOING THE BEST.

AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. THE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THE WIND. LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...AND 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT HAVING A WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE AFTERNOON THE COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

HEIGHT FALLS WOULD INDICATE THE MAIN CORE OF THE CENTER WILL BE
GOING TOWARD WYOMING. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW
THIS SYSTEM DOWN. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER JET/LIFT
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO LOWERED THE
AFTERNOON POPS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO
SEVERE DUE TO THE AMOUNT SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT.

NEWER MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THROUGH THE
EVENING EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OR COUPLED JET IS AFFECTING
THE NORTHWEST HALF. AFTER MIDNIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
JET IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE IN PLACE. DESPITE THE STRONG STEERING FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO TRAIN WITH SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED. AS A RESULT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST HALF THIRD TO HALF THROUGH THE
MORNING. THAT AND LINGERING MID LEVEL LIFT COULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THAT AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD THAT HANDLED WELL AND DID NOT CHANGE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT A RATHER STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
JET BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF
TO TWO THIRDS. THERE LOOKS TO ALSO TO BE DECENT FORCING AS
EVIDENCED BY A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE
LOW ENOUGH THAT THE AIR MASS SHOULD RESPOND WELL TO THE LIFT. IF
CURRENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TRENDS CONTINUE...POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH
AND EAST AND BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DIVIDES THE FORECAST AREA IN
HALF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO GOOD LIFT DECIDED
TO RAISE POPS INTO A HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AGAIN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE. IT MAY
NOT WARM UP MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD. MAXES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.

THERE LOOKS TO BE BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BY LATE EVENING UPPER
JET MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF BEFORE IT LEAVES. INCOMING TROUGH IS LOOKING A
LITTLE STRONGER. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND SHOULD RESPOND
VERY WELL TO THE LIFT GENERATED BY THIS INCOMING POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PV ANOMALY SHOULD BRING A
VERY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND DID MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HIGH POPS ALREADY IN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN
LOW AND MID CLDS. FROM 23Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY THOUGH...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS UPPER LOW TRAVERSES AREA. MENTION OF
TSRA AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 06Z-09Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SSE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS...BECM SSW 10-15KTS BY
06Z FOR KGLD AND 14Z-15Z FOR KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292008
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADD IN TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED BY
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE SAME AREA ALONG WITH
FORECASTED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS DIGGING TOWARD SOUTHWEST CANADA. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN SYSTEM HAS SURGED NORTH FROM
YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY. AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AND CLOSE WITH THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...NAM AND GFS DOING THE BEST.

AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. THE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THE WIND. LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...AND 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT HAVING A WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE AFTERNOON THE COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

HEIGHT FALLS WOULD INDICATE THE MAIN CORE OF THE CENTER WILL BE
GOING TOWARD WYOMING. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW
THIS SYSTEM DOWN. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER JET/LIFT
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO LOWERED THE
AFTERNOON POPS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO
SEVERE DUE TO THE AMOUNT SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT.

NEWER MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THROUGH THE
EVENING EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OR COUPLED JET IS AFFECTING
THE NORTHWEST HALF. AFTER MIDNIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
JET IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE IN PLACE. DESPITE THE STRONG STEERING FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO TRAIN WITH SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED. AS A RESULT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST HALF THIRD TO HALF THROUGH THE
MORNING. THAT AND LINGERING MID LEVEL LIFT COULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THAT AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD THAT HANDLED WELL AND DID NOT CHANGE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT A RATHER STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
JET BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF
TO TWO THIRDS. THERE LOOKS TO ALSO TO BE DECENT FORCING AS
EVIDENCED BY A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE
LOW ENOUGH THAT THE AIR MASS SHOULD RESPOND WELL TO THE LIFT. IF
CURRENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TRENDS CONTINUE...POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH
AND EAST AND BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DIVIDES THE FORECAST AREA IN
HALF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO GOOD LIFT DECIDED
TO RAISE POPS INTO A HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AGAIN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE. IT MAY
NOT WARM UP MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD. MAXES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.

THERE LOOKS TO BE BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BY LATE EVENING UPPER
JET MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF BEFORE IT LEAVES. INCOMING TROUGH IS LOOKING A
LITTLE STRONGER. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND SHOULD RESPOND
VERY WELL TO THE LIFT GENERATED BY THIS INCOMING POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PV ANOMALY SHOULD BRING A
VERY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND DID MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HIGH POPS ALREADY IN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN
LOW AND MID CLDS. FROM 23Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY THOUGH...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS UPPER LOW TRAVERSES AREA. MENTION OF
TSRA AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 06Z-09Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SSE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS...BECM SSW 10-15KTS BY
06Z FOR KGLD AND 14Z-15Z FOR KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291952
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR WESTERN
ZONES AND TO BUMP UP DAYTIME HIGHS BASED ON LATEST HOURLY OBS.
MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO
FORECASTED HIGHS...SO HAVE INCREASED BY A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE
INTRODUCED PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN ZONES AS LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM THIS MORNING REMAIN. WIND ADVISORY UPDATE...CONDITIONS REMAIN
INTACT FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGE TO GOING
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HAVE CONTINUED SL CHANCE FOR WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AS LINGERING RW REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS DIGGING TOWARD SOUTHWEST CANADA. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN SYSTEM HAS SURGED NORTH FROM
YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY. AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AND CLOSE WITH THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...NAM AND GFS DOING THE BEST.

AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. THE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THE WIND. LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...AND 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT HAVING A WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE AFTERNOON THE COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

HEIGHT FALLS WOULD INDICATE THE MAIN CORE OF THE CENTER WILL BE
GOING TOWARD WYOMING. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW
THIS SYSTEM DOWN. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER JET/LIFT
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO LOWERED THE
AFTERNOON POPS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO
SEVERE DUE TO THE AMOUNT SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT.

NEWER MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THROUGH THE
EVENING EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OR COUPLED JET IS AFFECTING
THE NORTHWEST HALF. AFTER MIDNIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
JET IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE IN PLACE. DESPITE THE STRONG STEERING FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO TRAIN WITH SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED. AS A RESULT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST HALF THIRD TO HALF THROUGH THE
MORNING. THAT AND LINGERING MID LEVEL LIFT COULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THAT AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD THAT HANDLED WELL AND DID NOT CHANGE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT A RATHER STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
JET BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF
TO TWO THIRDS. THERE LOOKS TO ALSO TO BE DECENT FORCING AS
EVIDENCED BY A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE
LOW ENOUGH THAT THE AIR MASS SHOULD RESPOND WELL TO THE LIFT. IF
CURRENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TRENDS CONTINUE...POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH
AND EAST AND BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DIVIDES THE FORECAST AREA IN
HALF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO GOOD LIFT DECIDED
TO RAISE POPS INTO A HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AGAIN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE. IT MAY
NOT WARM UP MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD. MAXES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.

THERE LOOKS TO BE BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BY LATE EVENING UPPER
JET MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF BEFORE IT LEAVES. INCOMING TROUGH IS LOOKING A
LITTLE STRONGER. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND SHOULD RESPOND
VERY WELL TO THE LIFT GENERATED BY THIS INCOMING POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PV ANOMALY SHOULD BRING A
VERY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND DID MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HIGH POPS ALREADY IN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN
LOW AND MID CLDS. FROM 23Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY THOUGH...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS UPPER LOW TRAVERSES AREA. MENTION OF
TSRA AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 06Z-09Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SSE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS...BECM SSW 10-15KTS BY
06Z FOR KGLD AND 14Z-15Z FOR KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291737
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR WESTERN
ZONES AND TO BUMP UP DAYTIME HIGHS BASED ON LATEST HOURLY OBS.
MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO
FORECASTED HIGHS...SO HAVE INCREASED BY A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE
INTRODUCED PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN ZONES AS LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM THIS MORNING REMAIN. WIND ADVISORY UPDATE...CONDITIONS REMAIN
INTACT FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGE TO GOING
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HAVE CONTINUED SL CHANCE FOR WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AS LINGERING RW REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS DIGGING TOWARD SOUTHWEST CANADA. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN SYSTEM HAS SURGED NORTH FROM
YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY. AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AND CLOSE WITH THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...NAM AND GFS DOING THE BEST.

AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. THE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THE WIND. LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...AND 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT HAVING A WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE AFTERNOON THE COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

HEIGHT FALLS WOULD INDICATE THE MAIN CORE OF THE CENTER WILL BE
GOING TOWARD WYOMING. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW
THIS SYSTEM DOWN. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER JET/LIFT
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO LOWERED THE
AFTERNOON POPS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO
SEVERE DUE TO THE AMOUNT SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT.

NEWER MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THROUGH THE
EVENING EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OR COUPLED JET IS AFFECTING
THE NORTHWEST HALF. AFTER MIDNIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
JET IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE IN PLACE. DESPITE THE STRONG STEERING FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO TRAIN WITH SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED. AS A RESULT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST HALF THIRD TO HALF THROUGH THE
MORNING. THAT AND LINGERING MID LEVEL LIFT COULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THAT AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD THAT HANDLED WELL AND DID NOT CHANGE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT A RATHER STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
JET BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF
TO TWO THIRDS. THERE LOOKS TO ALSO TO BE DECENT FORCING AS
EVIDENCED BY A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE
LOW ENOUGH THAT THE AIR MASS SHOULD RESPOND WELL TO THE LIFT. IF
CURRENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TRENDS CONTINUE...POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH
AND EAST AND BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DIVIDES THE FORECAST AREA IN
HALF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO GOOD LIFT DECIDED
TO RAISE POPS INTO A HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AGAIN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE. IT MAY
NOT WARM UP MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD. MAXES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.

THERE LOOKS TO BE BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BY LATE EVENING UPPER
JET MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF BEFORE IT LEAVES. INCOMING TROUGH IS LOOKING A
LITTLE STRONGER. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND SHOULD RESPOND
VERY WELL TO THE LIFT GENERATED BY THIS INCOMING POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PV ANOMALY SHOULD BRING A
VERY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND DID MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HIGH POPS ALREADY IN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WITH STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND A
LACK OF CAPE IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE OVER THE REGION...RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE PROBABLE THAN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER
INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT
AVERAGE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN
LOW AND MID CLDS. FROM 23Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY THOUGH...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS UPPER LOW TRAVERSES AREA. MENTION OF
TSRA AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 06Z-09Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SSE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS...BECM SSW 10-15KTS BY
06Z FOR KGLD AND 14Z-15Z FOR KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291737
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR WESTERN
ZONES AND TO BUMP UP DAYTIME HIGHS BASED ON LATEST HOURLY OBS.
MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO
FORECASTED HIGHS...SO HAVE INCREASED BY A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE
INTRODUCED PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN ZONES AS LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM THIS MORNING REMAIN. WIND ADVISORY UPDATE...CONDITIONS REMAIN
INTACT FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGE TO GOING
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HAVE CONTINUED SL CHANCE FOR WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AS LINGERING RW REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS DIGGING TOWARD SOUTHWEST CANADA. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN SYSTEM HAS SURGED NORTH FROM
YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY. AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AND CLOSE WITH THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...NAM AND GFS DOING THE BEST.

AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. THE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THE WIND. LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS...AND 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT HAVING A WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE AFTERNOON THE COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

HEIGHT FALLS WOULD INDICATE THE MAIN CORE OF THE CENTER WILL BE
GOING TOWARD WYOMING. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW
THIS SYSTEM DOWN. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER JET/LIFT
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO LOWERED THE
AFTERNOON POPS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO
SEVERE DUE TO THE AMOUNT SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT.

NEWER MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THROUGH THE
EVENING EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OR COUPLED JET IS AFFECTING
THE NORTHWEST HALF. AFTER MIDNIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
JET IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE IN PLACE. DESPITE THE STRONG STEERING FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO TRAIN WITH SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED. AS A RESULT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST HALF THIRD TO HALF THROUGH THE
MORNING. THAT AND LINGERING MID LEVEL LIFT COULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THAT AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD THAT HANDLED WELL AND DID NOT CHANGE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT A RATHER STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
JET BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF
TO TWO THIRDS. THERE LOOKS TO ALSO TO BE DECENT FORCING AS
EVIDENCED BY A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE
LOW ENOUGH THAT THE AIR MASS SHOULD RESPOND WELL TO THE LIFT. IF
CURRENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TRENDS CONTINUE...POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED MORE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH
AND EAST AND BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DIVIDES THE FORECAST AREA IN
HALF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO GOOD LIFT DECIDED
TO RAISE POPS INTO A HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AGAIN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE. IT MAY
NOT WARM UP MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD. MAXES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.

THERE LOOKS TO BE BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BY LATE EVENING UPPER
JET MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF BEFORE IT LEAVES. INCOMING TROUGH IS LOOKING A
LITTLE STRONGER. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND SHOULD RESPOND
VERY WELL TO THE LIFT GENERATED BY THIS INCOMING POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PV ANOMALY SHOULD BRING A
VERY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND DID MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HIGH POPS ALREADY IN THERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WITH STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND A
LACK OF CAPE IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE OVER THE REGION...RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE PROBABLE THAN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER
INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT
AVERAGE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN
LOW AND MID CLDS. FROM 23Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY THOUGH...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS UPPER LOW TRAVERSES AREA. MENTION OF
TSRA AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 06Z-09Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SSE 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS...BECM SSW 10-15KTS BY
06Z FOR KGLD AND 14Z-15Z FOR KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027-041.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




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