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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291142
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED THE COVERAGE AREA OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST HAVE YET TO REPORT
ANY DECREASES IN VISIBILITY...BUT TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...ARE AT
2 DEGREES OR LESS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT HAVE DECREASED THE
COVERAGE PRIMARILY IN THE WEST.

ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM FOR TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN FULL SWING...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT GLD AND MCK
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

SURFACE RH VALUES ARE APPROACHING 100 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING FURTHER WEST. MCK MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FIRST THING
THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN
BETWEEN 5-6 MILES.

BOTH MCK AND GLD WILL HAVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 20Z AND SOUTH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291142
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED THE COVERAGE AREA OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST HAVE YET TO REPORT
ANY DECREASES IN VISIBILITY...BUT TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...ARE AT
2 DEGREES OR LESS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT HAVE DECREASED THE
COVERAGE PRIMARILY IN THE WEST.

ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM FOR TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN FULL SWING...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT GLD AND MCK
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

SURFACE RH VALUES ARE APPROACHING 100 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING FURTHER WEST. MCK MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FIRST THING
THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN
BETWEEN 5-6 MILES.

BOTH MCK AND GLD WILL HAVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 20Z AND SOUTH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291142
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED THE COVERAGE AREA OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST HAVE YET TO REPORT
ANY DECREASES IN VISIBILITY...BUT TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...ARE AT
2 DEGREES OR LESS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT HAVE DECREASED THE
COVERAGE PRIMARILY IN THE WEST.

ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM FOR TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN FULL SWING...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT GLD AND MCK
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

SURFACE RH VALUES ARE APPROACHING 100 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING FURTHER WEST. MCK MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FIRST THING
THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN
BETWEEN 5-6 MILES.

BOTH MCK AND GLD WILL HAVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 20Z AND SOUTH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291142
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED THE COVERAGE AREA OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST HAVE YET TO REPORT
ANY DECREASES IN VISIBILITY...BUT TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...ARE AT
2 DEGREES OR LESS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT HAVE DECREASED THE
COVERAGE PRIMARILY IN THE WEST.

ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM FOR TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN FULL SWING...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT GLD AND MCK
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

SURFACE RH VALUES ARE APPROACHING 100 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING FURTHER WEST. MCK MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FIRST THING
THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN
BETWEEN 5-6 MILES.

BOTH MCK AND GLD WILL HAVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 20Z AND SOUTH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED THE COVERAGE AREA OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST HAVE YET TO REPORT
ANY DECREASES IN VISIBILITY...BUT TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...ARE AT
2 DEGREES OR LESS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT HAVE DECREASED THE
COVERAGE PRIMARILY IN THE WEST.

ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM FOR TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN FULL SWING...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED THE COVERAGE AREA OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST HAVE YET TO REPORT
ANY DECREASES IN VISIBILITY...BUT TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...ARE AT
2 DEGREES OR LESS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT HAVE DECREASED THE
COVERAGE PRIMARILY IN THE WEST.

ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM FOR TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN FULL SWING...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290810
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290810
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290743
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290743
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO ADD IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. TREND IN T/TD DIFFERENCE OVER PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DROPPED...AND WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...AND EVEN CALM IN SPOTS
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CARRY
INTO THE 12Z-13Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO ADD IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. TREND IN T/TD DIFFERENCE OVER PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DROPPED...AND WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...AND EVEN CALM IN SPOTS
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CARRY
INTO THE 12Z-13Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO ADD IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. TREND IN T/TD DIFFERENCE OVER PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DROPPED...AND WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...AND EVEN CALM IN SPOTS
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CARRY
INTO THE 12Z-13Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO ADD IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. TREND IN T/TD DIFFERENCE OVER PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DROPPED...AND WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...AND EVEN CALM IN SPOTS
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CARRY
INTO THE 12Z-13Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290224
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
824 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST TO ACCT FOR LATEST HOURLIES
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA WITH ONLY HIGH-BASED SMOKE MOVING THRU THE AREA FROM
WESTERN FIRES. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS AS NONE IN LOWER
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC OVERNIGHT
GIVING WAY TO FEW-SCT060 BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. 6SM IN SMOKE POSSIBLE
THRU 06Z SATURDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY 07Z-08Z...THEN BY MIDDAY...KGLD WILL SEE SW
AROUND 10KTS AND KMCK WILL SEE SE AROUND 5KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290224
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
824 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST TO ACCT FOR LATEST HOURLIES
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA WITH ONLY HIGH-BASED SMOKE MOVING THRU THE AREA FROM
WESTERN FIRES. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS AS NONE IN LOWER
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC OVERNIGHT
GIVING WAY TO FEW-SCT060 BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. 6SM IN SMOKE POSSIBLE
THRU 06Z SATURDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY 07Z-08Z...THEN BY MIDDAY...KGLD WILL SEE SW
AROUND 10KTS AND KMCK WILL SEE SE AROUND 5KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 282330
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC OVERNIGHT
GIVING WAY TO FEW-SCT060 BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. 6SM IN SMOKE POSSIBLE
THRU 06Z SATURDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY 07Z-08Z...THEN BY MIDDAY...KGLD WILL SEE SW
AROUND 10KTS AND KMCK WILL SEE SE AROUND 5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 282057
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DECLINE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 282057
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DECLINE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281917
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OR SO.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DECLINE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281917
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OR SO.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DECLINE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AROUND A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FOR SUNDAY THE NARROW AXIS OF 850-
700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER. THERE IS
A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT NOTHING FOR FORCING SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH 90 TO 95. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DECLINE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AROUND A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FOR SUNDAY THE NARROW AXIS OF 850-
700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER. THERE IS
A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT NOTHING FOR FORCING SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH 90 TO 95. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DECLINE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 281725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AROUND A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FOR SUNDAY THE NARROW AXIS OF 850-
700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER. THERE IS
A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT NOTHING FOR FORCING SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH 90 TO 95. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DECLINE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AROUND A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FOR SUNDAY THE NARROW AXIS OF 850-
700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER. THERE IS
A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT NOTHING FOR FORCING SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH 90 TO 95. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DECLINE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AROUND A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FOR SUNDAY THE NARROW AXIS OF 850-
700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER. THERE IS
A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT NOTHING FOR FORCING SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH 90 TO 95. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REACH 12KT THRESHOLD WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FROM
15Z-22Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AROUND 23Z FROM THE NORTH.
FOR TONIGHT WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE BELOW 5KTS FROM THE EAST BY 03Z
AS SFC HIGH MOVES IN. AFTER 03Z WINDS REMAIN BELOW 5KTS WHILE
ATTEMPTING TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ANY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO DAYTIME HOURS
BEFORE DRY AIR AND A CLEAR SKY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REACH 12KT THRESHOLD WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS
FROM 17Z-22Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AROUND 23Z FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT SIMILAR TO SCENARIO AS KGLD...WINDS
QUICKLY FALL BELOW 5KTS BY 03Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ANY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO DAYTIME
HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AROUND A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FOR SUNDAY THE NARROW AXIS OF 850-
700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER. THERE IS
A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT NOTHING FOR FORCING SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH 90 TO 95. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REACH 12KT THRESHOLD WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FROM
15Z-22Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AROUND 23Z FROM THE NORTH.
FOR TONIGHT WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE BELOW 5KTS FROM THE EAST BY 03Z
AS SFC HIGH MOVES IN. AFTER 03Z WINDS REMAIN BELOW 5KTS WHILE
ATTEMPTING TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ANY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO DAYTIME HOURS
BEFORE DRY AIR AND A CLEAR SKY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REACH 12KT THRESHOLD WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS
FROM 17Z-22Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AROUND 23Z FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT SIMILAR TO SCENARIO AS KGLD...WINDS
QUICKLY FALL BELOW 5KTS BY 03Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ANY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO DAYTIME
HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280812
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SO
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMCK 10Z-14Z...AND SOME 6SM FOG
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES FROM 10Z-14Z. WINDS STARTING OUT NW
SHIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE DAY AROUND 10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS BY MIDDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280812
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SO
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMCK 10Z-14Z...AND SOME 6SM FOG
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES FROM 10Z-14Z. WINDS STARTING OUT NW
SHIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE DAY AROUND 10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS BY MIDDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280550
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SO
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMCK 10Z-14Z...AND SOME 6SM FOG
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES FROM 10Z-14Z. WINDS STARTING OUT NW
SHIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE DAY AROUND 10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS BY MIDDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280550
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SO
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMCK 10Z-14Z...AND SOME 6SM FOG
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES FROM 10Z-14Z. WINDS STARTING OUT NW
SHIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE DAY AROUND 10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS BY MIDDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280550
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SO
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMCK 10Z-14Z...AND SOME 6SM FOG
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES FROM 10Z-14Z. WINDS STARTING OUT NW
SHIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE DAY AROUND 10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS BY MIDDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 280550
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SO
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMCK 10Z-14Z...AND SOME 6SM FOG
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES FROM 10Z-14Z. WINDS STARTING OUT NW
SHIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE DAY AROUND 10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS BY MIDDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280219
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
819 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF REMAINING RW/TRW ACTIVITY IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70...AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO ACCT FOR THE
TREND IN RADAR COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. LOOKING FOR PRECIP
OVERALL TO BEGIN TO WANE A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER FORECAST AS A
RESULT. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN060-120.
SOME VCSH POSSIBLE FROM 00Z-07Z. 5-6SM IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM
10Z-14Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMCK. WINDS NW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BY 14Z FRIDAY...AT 5-10KTS. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THRU 06Z
TONIGHT AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280219
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
819 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF REMAINING RW/TRW ACTIVITY IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70...AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO ACCT FOR THE
TREND IN RADAR COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. LOOKING FOR PRECIP
OVERALL TO BEGIN TO WANE A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER FORECAST AS A
RESULT. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN060-120.
SOME VCSH POSSIBLE FROM 00Z-07Z. 5-6SM IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM
10Z-14Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMCK. WINDS NW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BY 14Z FRIDAY...AT 5-10KTS. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THRU 06Z
TONIGHT AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
10Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING THE
AREA SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
FOG IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN EASTERN ZONES. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN060-120.
SOME VCSH POSSIBLE FROM 00Z-07Z. 5-6SM IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM
10Z-14Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMCK. WINDS NW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BY 14Z FRIDAY...AT 5-10KTS. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THRU 06Z
TONIGHT AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
10Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING THE
AREA SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
FOG IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN EASTERN ZONES. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN060-120.
SOME VCSH POSSIBLE FROM 00Z-07Z. 5-6SM IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM
10Z-14Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMCK. WINDS NW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BY 14Z FRIDAY...AT 5-10KTS. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THRU 06Z
TONIGHT AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
10Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING THE
AREA SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
FOG IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN EASTERN ZONES. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN060-120.
SOME VCSH POSSIBLE FROM 00Z-07Z. 5-6SM IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM
10Z-14Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMCK. WINDS NW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BY 14Z FRIDAY...AT 5-10KTS. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THRU 06Z
TONIGHT AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
10Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING THE
AREA SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
FOG IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN EASTERN ZONES. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN060-120.
SOME VCSH POSSIBLE FROM 00Z-07Z. 5-6SM IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM
10Z-14Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMCK. WINDS NW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BY 14Z FRIDAY...AT 5-10KTS. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THRU 06Z
TONIGHT AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 272012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.1 TO 1.7
INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOISTURE BELOW
700MB REMAINS SPARSE BUT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ITS PLENTIFUL. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL/COLD FRONT GENERALLY FROM MCCOOK TO
GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE A BIT MORE EFFICIENCY IN
RAINFALL PRODUCTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING DRIER
AIR AND DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 06Z EXITING THE ENTIRE AREA BY
12Z FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY. IF ONE WERE TO USE 850MB
TEMPERATURES (WHICH DID VERY WELL WITH HILL CITY 104 DEGREE HIGH)
WE WOULD SEE A RANGE OF LOW 90S WEST TO 102 AT HILL CITY.
MET/MAV/2M AND ABOUT TWO DOZEN BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUGGEST UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. HAVE GONE WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO (UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS) WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER). LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...60-65 EAST OF THE BORDER.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE AREA FAVORING NIL POPS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS GENERALLY CLEAR
WITH CONTINUED NIL POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.1 TO 1.7
INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOISTURE BELOW
700MB REMAINS SPARSE BUT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ITS PLENTIFUL. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL/COLD FRONT GENERALLY FROM MCCOOK TO
GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE A BIT MORE EFFICIENCY IN
RAINFALL PRODUCTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING DRIER
AIR AND DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 06Z EXITING THE ENTIRE AREA BY
12Z FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY. IF ONE WERE TO USE 850MB
TEMPERATURES (WHICH DID VERY WELL WITH HILL CITY 104 DEGREE HIGH)
WE WOULD SEE A RANGE OF LOW 90S WEST TO 102 AT HILL CITY.
MET/MAV/2M AND ABOUT TWO DOZEN BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUGGEST UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. HAVE GONE WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO (UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS) WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER). LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...60-65 EAST OF THE BORDER.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE AREA FAVORING NIL POPS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS GENERALLY CLEAR
WITH CONTINUED NIL POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 271740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.1 TO 1.7
INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOISTURE BELOW
700MB REMAINS SPARSE BUT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ITS PLENTIFUL. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL/COLD FRONT GENERALLY FROM MCCOOK TO
GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE A BIT MORE EFFICIENCY IN
RAINFALL PRODUCTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING DRIER
AIR AND DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 06Z EXITING THE ENTIRE AREA BY
12Z FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY. IF ONE WERE TO USE 850MB
TEMPERATURES (WHICH DID VERY WELL WITH HILL CITY 104 DEGREE HIGH)
WE WOULD SEE A RANGE OF LOW 90S WEST TO 102 AT HILL CITY.
MET/MAV/2M AND ABOUT TWO DOZEN BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUGGEST UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. HAVE GONE WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO (UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS) WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER). LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...60-65 EAST OF THE BORDER.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE AREA FAVORING NIL POPS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS GENERALLY CLEAR
WITH CONTINUED NIL POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.1 TO 1.7
INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOISTURE BELOW
700MB REMAINS SPARSE BUT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ITS PLENTIFUL. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL/COLD FRONT GENERALLY FROM MCCOOK TO
GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE A BIT MORE EFFICIENCY IN
RAINFALL PRODUCTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING DRIER
AIR AND DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 06Z EXITING THE ENTIRE AREA BY
12Z FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY. IF ONE WERE TO USE 850MB
TEMPERATURES (WHICH DID VERY WELL WITH HILL CITY 104 DEGREE HIGH)
WE WOULD SEE A RANGE OF LOW 90S WEST TO 102 AT HILL CITY.
MET/MAV/2M AND ABOUT TWO DOZEN BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUGGEST UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. HAVE GONE WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO (UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS) WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER). LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...60-65 EAST OF THE BORDER.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE AREA FAVORING NIL POPS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS GENERALLY CLEAR
WITH CONTINUED NIL POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.1 TO 1.7
INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOISTURE BELOW
700MB REMAINS SPARSE BUT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ITS PLENTIFUL. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL/COLD FRONT GENERALLY FROM MCCOOK TO
GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE A BIT MORE EFFICIENCY IN
RAINFALL PRODUCTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING DRIER
AIR AND DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 06Z EXITING THE ENTIRE AREA BY
12Z FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY. IF ONE WERE TO USE 850MB
TEMPERATURES (WHICH DID VERY WELL WITH HILL CITY 104 DEGREE HIGH)
WE WOULD SEE A RANGE OF LOW 90S WEST TO 102 AT HILL CITY.
MET/MAV/2M AND ABOUT TWO DOZEN BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUGGEST UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. HAVE GONE WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO (UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS) WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER). LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...60-65 EAST OF THE BORDER.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE AREA FAVORING NIL POPS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS GENERALLY CLEAR
WITH CONTINUED NIL POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST PRIMARILY IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH 06Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER...AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST BY 18Z THEN
SLOWLY NORTHWEST AROUND 10-12KTS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR TONIGHT WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND OR JUST
UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.1 TO 1.7
INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOISTURE BELOW
700MB REMAINS SPARSE BUT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ITS PLENTIFUL. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL/COLD FRONT GENERALLY FROM MCCOOK TO
GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE A BIT MORE EFFICIENCY IN
RAINFALL PRODUCTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING DRIER
AIR AND DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 06Z EXITING THE ENTIRE AREA BY
12Z FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY. IF ONE WERE TO USE 850MB
TEMPERATURES (WHICH DID VERY WELL WITH HILL CITY 104 DEGREE HIGH)
WE WOULD SEE A RANGE OF LOW 90S WEST TO 102 AT HILL CITY.
MET/MAV/2M AND ABOUT TWO DOZEN BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUGGEST UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. HAVE GONE WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO (UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS) WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER). LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...60-65 EAST OF THE BORDER.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE AREA FAVORING NIL POPS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS GENERALLY CLEAR
WITH CONTINUED NIL POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST PRIMARILY IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH 06Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER...AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST BY 18Z THEN
SLOWLY NORTHWEST AROUND 10-12KTS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR TONIGHT WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND OR JUST
UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270808
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONT TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION IN EITHER TAF ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270808
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONT TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION IN EITHER TAF ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270523
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONT TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION IN EITHER TAF ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270523
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONT TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION IN EITHER TAF ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270523
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONT TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION IN EITHER TAF ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL NE TO
HILL CITY KS LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STORM POPPED UP ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KHLC WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.

ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY...BEST CHANCES
AT KMCK...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL NE TO
HILL CITY KS LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STORM POPPED UP ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KHLC WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.

ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY...BEST CHANCES
AT KMCK...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL NE TO
HILL CITY KS LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STORM POPPED UP ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KHLC WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.

ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY...BEST CHANCES
AT KMCK...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 262248
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL NE TO
HILL CITY KS LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STORM POPPED UP ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KHLC WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.

ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262248
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL NE TO
HILL CITY KS LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STORM POPPED UP ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KHLC WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.

ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 262248
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL NE TO
HILL CITY KS LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STORM POPPED UP ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KHLC WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.

ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262248
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL NE TO
HILL CITY KS LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STORM POPPED UP ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KHLC WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.

ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 262026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY.  THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261911
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG A WEAK THETA E
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LEAD TO SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261911
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG A WEAK THETA E
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LEAD TO SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261750
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
DIVIDE FROM WYOMING SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. LATEST
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS BATCH OF MOISTURE (PER 700-
500MB RH) WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY REMAINING ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY SLIM
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
AND DELAY THEM TIL 12Z THURSDAY.

850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 90S TO 103...HOTTEST ACROSS THE EAST. BETTER PERFORMING
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH FEEL THAT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND LIMITED CLOUDINESS WILL SUPPORT MANY
LOCATIONS HITTING 100 DEGREES. FURTHER EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY)
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER...WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
WHICH ISNT THE BEST SCENARIO FOR FULL MIXING...THEREFORE HAVE MID
90S TO AROUND 100. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WITH PRECIP CHANCES
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ARRIVES ACROSS COLORADO COUNTIES RE-INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST WHERE MID 90S EXPECTED BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG A WEAK THETA E
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LEAD TO SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

FOR TODAY THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH MAY PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA
TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. RECENT COMMUNICATIONS WITH OFFICIALS
SUGGEST THAT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NOT COMPLETELY RECEPTIVE TO RAPID
BURNING THUS NO HIGHLITES WILL BE ISSUED. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261750
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
DIVIDE FROM WYOMING SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. LATEST
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS BATCH OF MOISTURE (PER 700-
500MB RH) WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY REMAINING ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY SLIM
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
AND DELAY THEM TIL 12Z THURSDAY.

850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 90S TO 103...HOTTEST ACROSS THE EAST. BETTER PERFORMING
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH FEEL THAT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND LIMITED CLOUDINESS WILL SUPPORT MANY
LOCATIONS HITTING 100 DEGREES. FURTHER EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY)
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER...WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
WHICH ISNT THE BEST SCENARIO FOR FULL MIXING...THEREFORE HAVE MID
90S TO AROUND 100. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WITH PRECIP CHANCES
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ARRIVES ACROSS COLORADO COUNTIES RE-INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST WHERE MID 90S EXPECTED BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG A WEAK THETA E
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LEAD TO SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

FOR TODAY THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH MAY PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA
TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. RECENT COMMUNICATIONS WITH OFFICIALS
SUGGEST THAT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NOT COMPLETELY RECEPTIVE TO RAPID
BURNING THUS NO HIGHLITES WILL BE ISSUED. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261750
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
DIVIDE FROM WYOMING SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. LATEST
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS BATCH OF MOISTURE (PER 700-
500MB RH) WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY REMAINING ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY SLIM
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
AND DELAY THEM TIL 12Z THURSDAY.

850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 90S TO 103...HOTTEST ACROSS THE EAST. BETTER PERFORMING
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH FEEL THAT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND LIMITED CLOUDINESS WILL SUPPORT MANY
LOCATIONS HITTING 100 DEGREES. FURTHER EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY)
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER...WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
WHICH ISNT THE BEST SCENARIO FOR FULL MIXING...THEREFORE HAVE MID
90S TO AROUND 100. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WITH PRECIP CHANCES
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ARRIVES ACROSS COLORADO COUNTIES RE-INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST WHERE MID 90S EXPECTED BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG A WEAK THETA E
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LEAD TO SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

FOR TODAY THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH MAY PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA
TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. RECENT COMMUNICATIONS WITH OFFICIALS
SUGGEST THAT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NOT COMPLETELY RECEPTIVE TO RAPID
BURNING THUS NO HIGHLITES WILL BE ISSUED. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261750
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
DIVIDE FROM WYOMING SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. LATEST
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS BATCH OF MOISTURE (PER 700-
500MB RH) WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY REMAINING ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY SLIM
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
AND DELAY THEM TIL 12Z THURSDAY.

850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 90S TO 103...HOTTEST ACROSS THE EAST. BETTER PERFORMING
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH FEEL THAT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND LIMITED CLOUDINESS WILL SUPPORT MANY
LOCATIONS HITTING 100 DEGREES. FURTHER EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY)
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER...WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
WHICH ISNT THE BEST SCENARIO FOR FULL MIXING...THEREFORE HAVE MID
90S TO AROUND 100. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WITH PRECIP CHANCES
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ARRIVES ACROSS COLORADO COUNTIES RE-INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST WHERE MID 90S EXPECTED BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG A WEAK THETA E
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LEAD TO SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

FOR TODAY THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH MAY PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA
TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. RECENT COMMUNICATIONS WITH OFFICIALS
SUGGEST THAT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NOT COMPLETELY RECEPTIVE TO RAPID
BURNING THUS NO HIGHLITES WILL BE ISSUED. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...99




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