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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240445
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the
forecast area from Hill City to Gove. It may back up slightly this
afternoon and be the focus for isolated thunderstorm development
with the upper forcing still lagging over the central Rockies. If
a storm does develop...the environment will be conducive for
supercells with strong instability of up to 4000 j/kg and deep
layer shear of around 50kts. The aforementioned shortwave trough
will move out of northeast Colorado this evening and across the
northern tier of counties overnight. Point soundings show up to
2000 j/kg of elevated CAPE with little CIN in areas north of
Interstate 70 between 06z and 12z. High res model guidance shows
widespread qpf in that area. These slightly elevated thunderstorms
will be capable of producing large hail. In addition to the
thunderstorm threat...low level moisture will increase with light
southeasterly winds with areas of fog and low clouds likely
developing. Visibility could drop to less than a mile at times in
patchy dense fog which may linger through the mid morning hours.

The set up for Tuesday afternoon has strong to extreme
instability developing along and north of a Flagler to Tribune
line...most of the forecast area. Deep layer shear will be
slightly lower compared to today, around 40kts, but will be more
than sufficient for supercells. Problem as it has been the last
few days will be relatively weak upper forcing. Most likely
scenario will see isolated to widely scattered storms develop in
the mid to late afternoon hours in northeast Colorado as the next
shortwave emerges onto the plains and begins to move eastward into
the instability axis. Confidence is rather low due to the weak
synoptic scale forcing on the potential for anything more than an
isolated severe threat through Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Going into the extended period...the Tri State region will sit
between a broad h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the
country...with a digging slow moving upper trough building over the
rockies/western half of the country.

With this setup...Tuesday night on thru Wednesday will initially
have a few weak shortwaves move out over the plains region...moving
northeast along the western side of the blocking h5 ridge. Best
lift/dynamics ahead of these shortwaves will put best chances for
precipitation mainly north of Interstate 70...especially in sw
Nebraska.

By midweek...meandering surface boundary sets up in the Central
Plains out ahead of upper trough over the rockies. Models shift this
system eastward late Thursday and over the region thru Friday night
before lifting into north central Nebraska. Remnants of this
boundary do remain heading into the upcoming holiday weekend as
another upper low moves thru the north central rockies. For
precip...do expect an increase in areal coverage of rw/trw potential
as upper trough shifts eastward over the region...giving way to wrap-
around moisture going into the weekend. This moisture will be
enhanced by boundary remnants allowing for continuation of trw for
the weekend.

For temps...with a general sw upper flow over the region...looking
for near to above normal numbers thru the week as decent waa over
the area will only be hampered by extent of cloud cover/precip.
Overall...daytime highs will range from the mid 70s thru the mid
80s. coolest period will coincide with the passage of the midweek
upper trough. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s thru the
mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

For KGLD...mvfr cigs expected at or very near taf issuance as
stratus moves in from the southeast with surface winds from the
east near 10kts. sfc based thunderstorms expected around the
terminal as well. Thunderstorm chances decrease around 09z with
stratus and vlifr cigs and/or vis expected through about 17z.
models differ on how fast the stratus lifts north with the nam the
slower and gfs more progressive. Trended toward previous forecast
then favored the gfs which would bring vfr conditions to the
terminal after 21z as winds veer to the southeast near 10kts.

For KMCK...vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through 07z
or so with winds from the east around 5kts. from 08z-11z
thunderstorms possible from the south and west before dissipating
and/or moving northeast away from the terminal. Cigs will lower to
vlifr category. From 12z-18z am expecting vlifr cigs and possibly
vis. From 19z-21z cigs expected to slowly rise to mvfr category
then vfr from 22z through the rest of the taf period with winds
from the east-southeast around 11kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 232335
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
535 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the
forecast area from Hill City to Gove. It may back up slightly this
afternoon and be the focus for isolated thunderstorm development
with the upper forcing still lagging over the central Rockies. If
a storm does develop...the environment will be conducive for
supercells with strong instability of up to 4000 j/kg and deep
layer shear of around 50kts. The aforementioned shortwave trough
will move out of northeast Colorado this evening and across the
northern tier of counties overnight. Point soundings show up to
2000 j/kg of elevated CAPE with little CIN in areas north of
Interstate 70 between 06z and 12z. High res model guidance shows
widespread qpf in that area. These slightly elevated thunderstorms
will be capable of producing large hail. In addition to the
thunderstorm threat...low level moisture will increase with light
southeasterly winds with areas of fog and low clouds likely
developing. Visibility could drop to less than a mile at times in
patchy dense fog which may linger through the mid morning hours.

The set up for Tuesday afternoon has strong to extreme
instability developing along and north of a Flagler to Tribune
line...most of the forecast area. Deep layer shear will be
slightly lower compared to today, around 40kts, but will be more
than sufficient for supercells. Problem as it has been the last
few days will be relatively weak upper forcing. Most likely
scenario will see isolated to widely scattered storms develop in
the mid to late afternoon hours in northeast Colorado as the next
shortwave emerges onto the plains and begins to move eastward into
the instability axis. Confidence is rather low due to the weak
synoptic scale forcing on the potential for anything more than an
isolated severe threat through Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Going into the extended period...the Tri State region will sit
between a broad h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the
country...with a digging slow moving upper trough building over the
rockies/western half of the country.

With this setup...Tuesday night on thru Wednesday will initially
have a few weak shortwaves move out over the plains region...moving
northeast along the western side of the blocking h5 ridge. Best
lift/dynamics ahead of these shortwaves will put best chances for
precipitation mainly north of Interstate 70...especially in sw
Nebraska.

By midweek...meandering surface boundary sets up in the Central
Plains out ahead of upper trough over the rockies. Models shift this
system eastward late Thursday and over the region thru Friday night
before lifting into north central Nebraska. Remnants of this
boundary do remain heading into the upcoming holiday weekend as
another upper low moves thru the north central rockies. For
precip...do expect an increase in areal coverage of rw/trw potential
as upper trough shifts eastward over the region...giving way to wrap-
around moisture going into the weekend. This moisture will be
enhanced by boundary remnants allowing for continuation of trw for
the weekend.

For temps...with a general sw upper flow over the region...looking
for near to above normal numbers thru the week as decent waa over
the area will only be hampered by extent of cloud cover/precip.
Overall...daytime highs will range from the mid 70s thru the mid
80s. coolest period will coincide with the passage of the midweek
upper trough. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s thru the
mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

For KGLD and KMCK...vfr conditions expected through approximately
09z or so with winds from the east and/or southeast 5-10kts. Could
see a thunderstorm or two near or over the terminals a bit later
this evening through the overnight but confidence not high enough
to include in the forecast. Updates will be sent when confidence
increases. After 09z or so stratus and ifr/vlifr cigs and possibly
visibility move in from the east-southeast and continue through at
least mid to late morning. During the mid to late afternoon hours
the stratus should slowly decrease from southwest to northeast
allowing vfr to mvfr cigs to develop with visibilities unlimited.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 231738
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1138 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWS GOOD LIFT.  A DRYLINE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. CAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THAT PART OF THE FA AND SHEAR IS
AROUND 50 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA BUT CAPE IS
LOWER.

SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FA TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CAPE AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.

SIMILAR TIMING OCCURS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE
is ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHEAR OF
45KTS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday the main energy moves out from the Central and Southern
Rockies providing stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms.
Wraparound precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow
moving upper level system. Over the weekend models continue to be
quite wet as they show more zonal flow orientation with embedded
shortwave troughs and copious low level moisture available. This may
increase the severe potential over the weekend, depending on how the
instability axis sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through this afternoon.
TONIGHT...expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop after
midnight as well as areas of fog and low clouds. Thunderstorms
will be slightly elevated and capable of producing large hail.
KMCK will see the best chance of a thunderstorm with most staying
north of KGLD. Fog and low clouds will lift out around mid morning
on Tuesday.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 231143
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
543 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through wednesday night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWS GOOD LIFT.  A DRYLINE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. CAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THAT PART OF THE FA AND SHEAR IS
AROUND 50 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA BUT CAPE IS
LOWER.

SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FA TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CAPE AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.

SIMILAR TIMING OCCURS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE
is ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHEAR OF
45KTS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday the main energy moves out from the Central and Southern
Rockies providing stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms.
Wraparound precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow
moving upper level system. Over the weekend models continue to be
quite wet as they show more zonal flow orientation with embedded
shortwave troughs and copious low level moisture available. This may
increase the severe potential over the weekend, depending on how the
instability axis sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 539 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THIS
EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH. KMCK HAS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 230912
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
312 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through wednesday night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWS GOOD LIFT.  A DRYLINE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. CAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THAT PART OF THE FA AND SHEAR IS
AROUND 50 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA BUT CAPE IS
LOWER.

SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FA TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CAPE AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.

SIMILAR TIMING OCCURS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE
is ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHEAR OF
45KTS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday the main energy moves out from the Central and Southern
Rockies providing stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms.
Wraparound precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow
moving upper level system. Over the weekend models continue to be
quite wet as they show more zonal flow orientation with embedded
shortwave troughs and copious low level moisture available. This may
increase the severe potential over the weekend, depending on how the
instability axis sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

For kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period. Some
thunderstorms will be near the site for a couple of hours and have
only a vcts mention. Sustained winds near 20 knots with gusts to
near 30 knots will occur ahead and behind a cold front as it moves
through the area. The gusts will stop by 12z. Late tomorrow
afternoon and especially tomorrow evening there will be a chance
that thunderstorms will affect the site so included a vcts mention
at this time.

For kmck...Currently a cold front along with showers/thunderstorms
are through this area. Mvfr conditions are expected for a couple
of hours before vfr conditions move in. Gusty winds northwest
winds will end by 10z. Just like kgld thunderstorms should affect
the site late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening so have
inserted a vcts mention at this time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 230553
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1153 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Completed an update earlier as the severe thunderstorm watch
expired. Made minor adjustments with the pops for the rest of the
night and raised mins slightly.

UPDATE Issued at 910 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Just completed an update. Had to rearrange the orientation of
pops. Initial convection has stayed in the far south. However
still left low chance pops in the eastern portion. Concern now
turns the incoming cold front. Hires/convective allowing
guidance...especially the hrrr/rap...are develop a strong and
extensive line of thunderstorms along the cold front. That has
been shown a while before anything developed and now the line is
expanding in coverage and intensity to my north.

So raised pops/qpf in the north. Kept a mention of severe since
spc mesoanalysis and forecast elements would indicate the
possibility of severe with this line of storms. Also raised the
winds a little behind the front due to trends upstream...a rather
tight pressure gradient...and three hour pressure rises near 8 mb.
However I may not have been able to raise them enough. Everything
else looks fine at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Latest upper air analysis has a closed low over far southeast
Canada and a short wave ridge over the plains. Water vapor shows
moisture wrapping around the low and around the ridge toward the
plains. A small area of subsidence is currently over East Central
Colorado, which is hindering any convection from occurring near
the dry line in Northwest Kansas.

For the rest of today windy conditions will persist across the
Tri- State area due to a strong low level jet mixing down.
Anticipate isolated storms to begin developing along the dry line
near Highway27 in the next couple of hours as a small area of
subsidence moves past the dry line. Storm coverage will gradually
increase through the afternoon as an upper level short wave trough
approaches from the southwest.

Regarding hazards...quarter size hail, damaging winds and tornadoes
will all be possible today and this evening.  Deep layer shear is
not as strong as yesterday, which would support smaller hail.
Damaging winds are only expected during the afternoon.  While deep
layer shear is weaker than yesterday, low level shear is already
around 20 kts, and should strengthen a bit more late this afternoon
as the low level jet intensifies. With a similar environment to
yesterday but weaker deep layer shear, am anticipating short lived
tornadoes, if they develop.  The best window for tornadoes to
develop will be from 4 PM MT until 8 PM MT.

Early this evening the storm coverage will peak, south of I- 70
centered over Highway 25. The dry line will retreat during this
time, but the main upper level support will be to the east, and
the majority of the higher mid level mixing ratios will be east
of Highway 27. Therefore am not anticipating any storms to develop
west of Highway 27 despite the retreating dry line. Toward mid
evening the storm coverage will begin shifting east out of the
area. There will be a lull during the late evening and first few
hours after midnight before the next round of thunderstorms
develop.

Overnight another round of thunderstorms will develop east of
Highway 25 ahead of the cold front where elevated instability will
develop.  Toward sunrise the elevated storms may become surface
based as the CINh drops to almost nothing.  The ongoing rainfall may
also cause the environment to wet-bulb and erase the CINh present.
Regardless, storms may become surface based toward sunrise along the
east 1/3 of the area ahead of the cold front.  Low level shear and
low cloud bases will be supportive of a tornado developing before
the storms exit the area.

Monday morning will be quiet storm-wise.  During the afternoon the
cold front will move back north over the southeast half of the area.
Meanwhile the dry line will be east of Highway 83.  An upper level
short wave trough will move over the dry line during the early
afternoon.  Anticipate storms to begin firing an hour or so earlier
in the afternoon due to the stronger lift and lower CINh available.
Deep layer shear will be much stronger than today, but low level
shear will be much less.  As a result large hail will be bigger, up
to soft ball size.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Southwest flow aloft will continue across the central High Plains
through Wednesday. Embedded weak shortwaves will result in
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances
will be along and north of Interstate 70. On Thursday the main
energy lifts out across the central and southern Rockies providing
stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms. Wraparound
precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow moving upper
system. More of a zonal flow is forecast for next weekend but
models continue to be quite wet with embedded shortwave troughs
aloft and copious low level moisture available. As for severe
potential...certainly ahead of the upper low Tuesday and
Wednesday shear and instability will be sufficient, but as the
upper low gets closer Wednesday through Friday deep layer shear
will decrease as does the severe threat. However, as the upper
flow increases again over the weekend with the zonal flow, may
see increasing threat once again depending on where the instability
axis ultimately sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

For kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period. Some
thunderstorms will be near the site for a couple of hours and have
only a vcts mention. Sustained winds near 20 knots with gusts to
near 30 knots will occur ahead and behind a cold front as it moves
through the area. The gusts will stop by 12z. Late tomorrow
afternoon and especially tomorrow evening there will be a chance
that thunderstorms will affect the site so included a vcts mention
at this time.

For kmck...Currently a cold front along with showers/thunderstorms
are through this area. Mvfr conditions are expected for a couple
of hours before vfr conditions move in. Gusty winds northwest
winds will end by 10z. Just like kgld thunderstorms should affect
the site late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening so have
inserted a vcts mention at this time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 222358
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
558 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Latest upper air analysis has a closed low over far southeast
Canada and a short wave ridge over the plains. Water vapor shows
moisture wrapping around the low and around the ridge toward the
plains. A small area of subsidence is currently over East Central
Colorado, which is hindering any convection from occurring near
the dry line in Northwest Kansas.

For the rest of today windy conditions will persist across the
Tri- State area due to a strong low level jet mixing down.
Anticipate isolated storms to begin developing along the dry line
near Highway27 in the next couple of hours as a small area of
subsidence moves past the dry line. Storm coverage will gradually
increase through the afternoon as an upper level short wave trough
approaches from the southwest.

Regarding hazards...quarter size hail, damaging winds and tornadoes
will all be possible today and this evening.  Deep layer shear is
not as strong as yesterday, which would support smaller hail.
Damaging winds are only expected during the afternoon.  While deep
layer shear is weaker than yesterday, low level shear is already
around 20 kts, and should strengthen a bit more late this afternoon
as the low level jet intensifies. With a similar environment to
yesterday but weaker deep layer shear, am anticipating short lived
tornadoes, if they develop.  The best window for tornadoes to
develop will be from 4 PM MT until 8 PM MT.

Early this evening the storm coverage will peak, south of I- 70
centered over Highway 25. The dry line will retreat during this
time, but the main upper level support will be to the east, and
the majority of the higher mid level mixing ratios will be east
of Highway 27. Therefore am not anticipating any storms to develop
west of Highway 27 despite the retreating dry line. Toward mid
evening the storm coverage will begin shifting east out of the
area. There will be a lull during the late evening and first few
hours after midnight before the next round of thunderstorms
develop.

Overnight another round of thunderstorms will develop east of
Highway 25 ahead of the cold front where elevated instability will
develop.  Toward sunrise the elevated storms may become surface
based as the CINh drops to almost nothing.  The ongoing rainfall may
also cause the environment to wet-bulb and erase the CINh present.
Regardless, storms may become surface based toward sunrise along the
east 1/3 of the area ahead of the cold front.  Low level shear and
low cloud bases will be supportive of a tornado developing before
the storms exit the area.

Monday morning will be quiet storm-wise.  During the afternoon the
cold front will move back north over the southeast half of the area.
Meanwhile the dry line will be east of Highway 83.  An upper level
short wave trough will move over the dry line during the early
afternoon.  Anticipate storms to begin firing an hour or so earlier
in the afternoon due to the stronger lift and lower CINh available.
Deep layer shear will be much stronger than today, but low level
shear will be much less.  As a result large hail will be bigger, up
to soft ball size.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Southwest flow aloft will continue across the central High Plains
through Wednesday. Embedded weak shortwaves will result in
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances
will be along and north of Interstate 70. On Thursday the main
energy lifts out across the central and southern Rockies providing
stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms. Wraparound
precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow moving upper
system. More of a zonal flow is forecast for next weekend but
models continue to be quite wet with embedded shortwave troughs
aloft and copious low level moisture available. As for severe
potential...certainly ahead of the upper low Tuesday and
Wednesday shear and instability will be sufficient, but as the
upper low gets closer Wednesday through Friday deep layer shear
will decrease as does the severe threat. However, as the upper
flow increases again over the weekend with the zonal flow, may
see increasing threat once again depending on where the instability
axis ultimately sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 546 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Vfr conditions are expected for both sites through the period.
However uncertain how the thunderstorm forecast is going to turn
through tonight.

For kgld...it will be close but it looks like this evenings
thunderstorms will stay just east of the site. however will keep a
vcts mention for a few hours. Southerly winds near 25 knots with
gusts 30 to 35 knots through the evening hours. A cold front moves
through after midnight and depending on which model you choose
there could be a decent chance to affect the site. Due to
uncertainty...chose to keep a vcts mention. After the front moves
through the winds will become light and shifting. Another chance
for thunderstorms looks to occur very late tomorrow with no
mention at this time.

For kmck...through this evening there looks to be a little better
chance to have thunderstorms to affect the site. However, that
also depends on which high resolution model you choose. Have a
mention of -tsra from 01z to 03z. Some wind shear will be in place
from 03z to 07z. It appears that the better chance for
thunderstorms could occur after 07z when a cold front moves
through. However, this also depneds on which model you choose to
look at. At this time just have vcts but that may change at the
next issuance. Decreasing northerly winds will occur after this.
Another chance for thunderstorms looks to occur very late
tomorrow with no mention at this time and will leave out at this
time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 221739
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1139 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH TUESDAY night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
INITIATE STORMS ON THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE PLACING THE DRYLINE NEAR
KS HIGHWAY 25. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR RANGES FROM
30 TO 40KTS SO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE FA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP FIRE
SOME STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

STRATUS, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COOLER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
FROM 75 TO AROUND 80.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
75 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO 85 IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Precipitation chances continue throughout the extended period, with
the best chance of precipitation looking to be Thursday night into
Friday. Temperatures appear to gradually decrease through the end of
the work week before rebounding during the weekend.

On Wednesday, southwesterly flow aloft persists as an upper trough
moves towards the Four Corners region. Disturbances pass through the
flow as the trough nears the High Plains. An upper low forms and, on
Thursday and Friday, advances from Colorado across the area.
This will be the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms
across the High Plains with a frontal boundary draped across western
Kansas as the focus for development. With increasing CAPE and decent
shear during this time, severe weather will be a possibility on
Thursday. Precipitation chances decrease Friday night and Saturday
as the upper system moves east towards the Upper Midwest and weak
ridging follows behind. Due to the active pattern, could not rule
out precipitation for any period. Additionally, there is uncertainty
in the timing of the upper system as well as positioning of surface
features.

Generally above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are
expected on Wednesday before highs decrease into the mid 60s to
upper 70s by Friday. Temperatures could warm into the 70s across the
region on Saturday if upper ridging returns to the High Plains. Low
temperatures will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The breezy winds
will continue well into the night. Meanwhile isolated to scattered
storms are expected near the TAF sites during the late afternoon
and early evening. Late evening into the overnight hours low
level wind shear will develop ahead of a cold front that will move
through during the last few hours of the night. Behind the cold
front winds will turn to the northwest and become light.

Ahead of the frontal passage elevated thunderstorms will develop,
possibly near KMCK. If they do, it should only be for a couple
hours before storms are pushed east by the front.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 221121
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
521 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH TUESDAY night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
INITIATE STORMS ON THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE PLACING THE DRYLINE NEAR
KS HIGHWAY 25. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR RANGES FROM
30 TO 40KTS SO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE FA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP FIRE
SOME STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

STRATUS, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COOLER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
FROM 75 TO AROUND 80.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
75 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO 85 IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Precipitation chances continue throughout the extended period, with
the best chance of precipitation looking to be Thursday night into
Friday. Temperatures appear to gradually decrease through the end of
the work week before rebounding during the weekend.

On Wednesday, southwesterly flow aloft persists as an upper trough
moves towards the Four Corners region. Disturbances pass through the
flow as the trough nears the High Plains. An upper low forms and, on
Thursday and Friday, advances from Colorado across the area.
This will be the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms
across the High Plains with a frontal boundary draped across western
Kansas as the focus for development. With increasing CAPE and decent
shear during this time, severe weather will be a possibility on
Thursday. Precipitation chances decrease Friday night and Saturday
as the upper system moves east towards the Upper Midwest and weak
ridging follows behind. Due to the active pattern, could not rule
out precipitation for any period. Additionally, there is uncertainty
in the timing of the upper system as well as positioning of surface
features.

Generally above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are
expected on Wednesday before highs decrease into the mid 60s to
upper 70s by Friday. Temperatures could warm into the 70s across the
region on Saturday if upper ridging returns to the High Plains. Low
temperatures will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 518 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

STRATUS WILL ERODE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AT KGLD AND KMCK
RESPECTIVELY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT BOTH SITES. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ENDS AROUND 06Z WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KMCK TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF FORECAT.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 220830
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH TUESDAY night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
INITIATE STORMS ON THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE PLACING THE DRYLINE NEAR
KS HIGHWAY 25. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR RANGES FROM
30 TO 40KTS SO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE FA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP FIRE
SOME STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

STRATUS, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COOLER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
FROM 75 TO AROUND 80.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
75 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO 85 IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO 60.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Precipitation chances continue throughout the extended period, with
the best chance of precipitation looking to be Thursday night into
Friday. Temperatures appear to gradually decrease through the end of
the work week before rebounding during the weekend.

On Wednesday, southwesterly flow aloft persists as an upper trough
moves towards the Four Corners region. Disturbances pass through the
flow as the trough nears the High Plains. An upper low forms and, on
Thursday and Friday, advances from Colorado across the area.
This will be the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms
across the High Plains with a frontal boundary draped across western
Kansas as the focus for development. With increasing CAPE and decent
shear during this time, severe weather will be a possibility on
Thursday. Precipitation chances decrease Friday night and Saturday
as the upper system moves east towards the Upper Midwest and weak
ridging follows behind. Due to the active pattern, could not rule
out precipitation for any period. Additionally, there is uncertainty
in the timing of the upper system as well as positioning of surface
features.

Generally above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are
expected on Wednesday before highs decrease into the mid 60s to
upper 70s by Friday. Temperatures could warm into the 70s across the
region on Saturday if upper ridging returns to the High Plains. Low
temperatures will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

For kgld...Ifr conditions are expected until 15z. After that vfr
conditions are expected for the rest of the period. South to
southeast winds will stay strong and gusty through the period.
Until 18z...sustained winds will be 17 to 20 knots with gusts into
the 25 to 29 knot range. After 18z...sustained winds will be near
25 knots with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range.

For kmck...barely mvfr conditions will lower to ifr/lifr around
08z and those will continue until 15z. From 15z to 19z mvfr
conditions are expected. From 19z through the rest of the period
thunderstorms will be near or will affect the site and have a vcts
or tsra mention. Southerly winds during this time 15 to 21 knots
with gusts in the 23 to 29 knot range.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 220606
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1206 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Latest upper air and satellite data place a closed upper level low
over the Pacific Northwest.  Increased upper level moisture is seen
rotating around the base of the closed low.  Over the Desert
Southwest a band of dry air/subsidence was also rotating around the
closed low.  This narrow corridor may not move over the Tri-
State area until later this evening.  To the east an expanse of low
clouds and drizzle continued over the northeast half of the Tri-
State area under a short wave ridge.  At the surface a couple low
pressures were located over Eastern Colorado, one over Denver and the
other developing over Southeast Colorado.  A dry line extended from
near Denver, arcing southeast to the KS/CO border, then curving back
southwest into New Mexico.  East of the dry line a warm front was
slowly moving northeast across the Tri-State area, as evident by the
eroding stratus.

For the rest of the afternoon expect thunderstorms to begin
developing in the 2-3 PM MT time frame along the dry line.  As the
afternoon progresses expect the coverage to increase between the dry
line and the warm front, where the instability axis will be located
over the southern part of the area. Low-level and deep layer shear
also increase through the afternoon, causing storm intensity to
also increase. Storm movement will be to the northeast at 35 MPH,
which is perpendicular to the instability axis. This will serve to
limit the duration/extent of the severe storms. Expect storm
coverage to peak around 5 PM MDT before storms move east of the
area. Meanwhile overcast skies and drizzle are expected to
continue north of the warm front.

Main uncertainty today will be how far north will the warm front
move during the afternoon.  The further north the front moves, the
more of the area will be impacted by severe weather.

Regarding hazards for today, large hail up to baseball size will be
possible with the strongest storms, as well as damaging winds and
tornadoes.  The best window of opportunity for tornadic development
will be from roughly 5 PM to 7 PM MDT, although development may
begin an hour earlier.

This evening severe storm activity should move east of the area
around 9 PM MDT.  During the early evening storms may become
elevated before moving east of the area.  Have the highest chances
for measurable precipitation east of highway 83 where the low levels
will be saturated the deepest and the isentropic lift will be
strongest.  Overnight fog will develop, mainly along and east of
Highway 25.  The lowest visibilities will be around sunrise.  Winds
will turn more to the southeast as a pre-frontal trough moves
through.

Sunday morning fog and drizzle will continue over the east half of
the area.  Mid to late morning the fog will lift and the stratus
will begin to erode as the warm front moves through.  The drizzle
should end by late morning.

Sunday afternoon mixed layer CAPE increases east of a dry line
between of Highway 25 and Highway 83.  Meanwhile an upper level
short wave trough moves over the dry line by mid afternoon, which
should cause storms to begin firing along the dry line.  Storm
motion will again be to the northeast at 35 MPH.  Deep layer shear
will not be as strong as today, but am still expecting severe storms
to develop.  Storm coverage will expand along and east of the dry
line during the latter half of the afternoon.

Regarding hazards for Sunday afternoon, large hail up to ping-pong
ball size is possible, along with damaging winds.  Tornadoes will
also be possible during the last couple hours of the afternoon as 0-
1km shear increases to 25 kts with the strengthening low level
jet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Thunderstorms will linger through Sunday evening then begin to
diminish after midnight as the shortwave trough lifts north.
However...surface cold front will move through overnight so cannot
rule out an isolated shower/thunderstorm through the night.

Southwesterly flow aloft Monday through Wednesday will result in
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of
shortwave troughs move through. Currently the area is outlooked
for severe weather by SPC only for Day 4 (Tuesday). The
instability axis will be along and north of a Hill City to Yuma
line with little to no instability south of that area. However the
set up will be similar on Wednesday with the instability axis a
bit further south perhaps. Thursday stands out as the day with the
best upper forcing since the main upper low will be ejecting
across the central Rockies and adjacent plains. Instability for
severe weather may be limited by cloudiness due to low level
easterly flow in place north of the surface front which will be
over southwest Kansas. However given the strong forcing, weak to
moderate instability and strong deep layer shear another round of
severe weather cannot be ruled out on Thursday. The upper low,
and accompanying chances of precipitation, will linger at least
through Friday, then the models diverge next weekend with how fast
to lift it out. All in all, a rather wet pattern can be expected
for the long term period with temperatures near to slightly above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

For kgld...Ifr conditions are expected until 15z. After that vfr
conditions are expected for the rest of the period. South to
southeast winds will stay strong and gusty through the period.
Until 18z...sustained winds will be 17 to 20 knots with gusts into
the 25 to 29 knot range. After 18z...sustained winds will be near
25 knots with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range.

For kmck...barely mvfr conditions will lower to ifr/lifr around
08z and those will continue until 15z. From 15z to 19z mvfr
conditions are expected. From 19z through the rest of the period
thunderstorms will be near or will affect the site and have a vcts
or tsra mention. Southerly winds during this time 15 to 21 knots
with gusts in the 23 to 29 knot range.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 212352
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
552 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Latest upper air and satellite data place a closed upper level low
over the Pacific Northwest.  Increased upper level moisture is seen
rotating around the base of the closed low.  Over the Desert
Southwest a band of dry air/subsidence was also rotating around the
closed low.  This narrow corridor may not move over the Tri-
State area until later this evening.  To the east an expanse of low
clouds and drizzle continued over the northeast half of the Tri-
State area under a short wave ridge.  At the surface a couple low
pressures were located over Eastern Colorado, one over Denver and the
other developing over Southeast Colorado.  A dry line extended from
near Denver, arcing southeast to the KS/CO border, then curving back
southwest into New Mexico.  East of the dry line a warm front was
slowly moving northeast across the Tri-State area, as evident by the
eroding stratus.

For the rest of the afternoon expect thunderstorms to begin
developing in the 2-3 PM MT time frame along the dry line.  As the
afternoon progresses expect the coverage to increase between the dry
line and the warm front, where the instability axis will be located
over the southern part of the area. Low-level and deep layer shear
also increase through the afternoon, causing storm intensity to
also increase. Storm movement will be to the northeast at 35 MPH,
which is perpendicular to the instability axis. This will serve to
limit the duration/extent of the severe storms. Expect storm
coverage to peak around 5 PM MDT before storms move east of the
area. Meanwhile overcast skies and drizzle are expected to
continue north of the warm front.

Main uncertainty today will be how far north will the warm front
move during the afternoon.  The further north the front moves, the
more of the area will be impacted by severe weather.

Regarding hazards for today, large hail up to baseball size will be
possible with the strongest storms, as well as damaging winds and
tornadoes.  The best window of opportunity for tornadic development
will be from roughly 5 PM to 7 PM MDT, although development may
begin an hour earlier.

This evening severe storm activity should move east of the area
around 9 PM MDT.  During the early evening storms may become
elevated before moving east of the area.  Have the highest chances
for measurable precipitation east of highway 83 where the low levels
will be saturated the deepest and the isentropic lift will be
strongest.  Overnight fog will develop, mainly along and east of
Highway 25.  The lowest visibilities will be around sunrise.  Winds
will turn more to the southeast as a pre-frontal trough moves
through.

Sunday morning fog and drizzle will continue over the east half of
the area.  Mid to late morning the fog will lift and the stratus
will begin to erode as the warm front moves through.  The drizzle
should end by late morning.

Sunday afternoon mixed layer CAPE increases east of a dry line
between of Highway 25 and Highway 83.  Meanwhile an upper level
short wave trough moves over the dry line by mid afternoon, which
should cause storms to begin firing along the dry line.  Storm
motion will again be to the northeast at 35 MPH.  Deep layer shear
will not be as strong as today, but am still expecting severe storms
to develop.  Storm coverage will expand along and east of the dry
line during the latter half of the afternoon.

Regarding hazards for Sunday afternoon, large hail up to ping-pong
ball size is possible, along with damaging winds.  Tornadoes will
also be possible during the last couple hours of the afternoon as 0-
1km shear increases to 25 kts with the strengthening low level
jet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Thunderstorms will linger through Sunday evening then begin to
diminish after midnight as the shortwave trough lifts north.
However...surface cold front will move through overnight so cannot
rule out an isolated shower/thunderstorm through the night.

Southwesterly flow aloft Monday through Wednesday will result in
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of
shortwave troughs move through. Currently the area is outlooked
for severe weather by SPC only for Day 4 (Tuesday). The
instability axis will be along and north of a Hill City to Yuma
line with little to no instability south of that area. However the
set up will be similar on Wednesday with the instability axis a
bit further south perhaps. Thursday stands out as the day with the
best upper forcing since the main upper low will be ejecting
across the central Rockies and adjacent plains. Instability for
severe weather may be limited by cloudiness due to low level
easterly flow in place north of the surface front which will be
over southwest Kansas. However given the strong forcing, weak to
moderate instability and strong deep layer shear another round of
severe weather cannot be ruled out on Thursday. The upper low,
and accompanying chances of precipitation, will linger at least
through Friday, then the models diverge next weekend with how fast
to lift it out. All in all, a rather wet pattern can be expected
for the long term period with temperatures near to slightly above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

For Kgld...an isolated thunderstorm will be possible near the site
through 03z and put in vcts through that time. Until late evening
southeast winds will be sustained 25 to 30 knot with gusts near 40
knots. From 05z to 13z ifr will drop into the lifr/vlifr
categories. winds will remain sustained in the 19 to 25 knot
range with gusts 27 to 33 knots. At 13z vfr conditions are
expected. by 16z sustained winds will increase to near 25 knots
with gusts between 30 and 35 knots.

For Kmck...mvfr conditions will drop quickly to ifr. At 06z lifr
conditions will begin and continue until 19z. Through this entire
period southeast to south sustained winds will stay in the 15 to
21 knot range with gusts 7 to 8 knots higher.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211717
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1117 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Adjusted precipitation chances for today through Sunday morning
based on latest data. Main focus for today will be the chance for
strong to severe storms during the afternoon and possibly early
evening.

Currently looks like the drizzle over the area now will gradually
shift east through mid morning Sunday before coming to an end. The
best chance for measurable drizzle will be east of Highway 25
through Sunday morning where the deepest moisture and strongest
isentropic lift will be. By mid morning Sunday the saturated low
levels will shift east of the area, bringing the drizzle to an
end.

Main focus for today will be the chance for severe storms west of
a line from Brewster to Gove and east of Highway 385 in Kit Carson
and Cheyenne counties, basically between the dry line and the warm
front. Near term models all agree with storms developing in this
part of the area. Further northwest there is a narrow corridor of
CAPE available, however models do not have storms forming there.
The reason could be the storm motion being perpendicular to the
narrow CAPE axis allows little time for any storms to develop
before moving into a very stable environment.

Severe weather threats for today include large hail, possibly up
to baseball size, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. The best
time for severe weather will begin around 3 PM MT and last as late
as 9 PM MT, although the majority of the severe weather will be
done an hour or two before then. The best window for a tornado to
develop will be closer to 5 PM MT until 7 PM MT or so. Am
anticipating the greatest storm coverage to be by 5 PM MT before
storms move east of the area. After 6 PM MT the severe storms
could become elevated as they move out of the area.

Another round of spread severe weather is anticipated Sunday,
mainly east of Highway 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH MONDAY night)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS
KANSAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST TODAY AS WEAK DYNAMICS
MOVE OVER THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
STRATUS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHWEST FA WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITH LOTS OF INSTABILITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR AROUND 40KTS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS SHOULD MOVE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40KTS. THIS WIND DIRECTION
WILL MOVE STORMS INTO MORE STABLE AIR NORTHEAST OF THE DRYLINE. CIN
TAKES OVER BY MID EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE SO
THAT STRATUS, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL RETURN AND LAST OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE
DRYLINE.  THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST BUT DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN IT EXACT POSITION. STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35 TO 45 KTS
OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH STRATUS LINGERING OVER
A LARGE PART OF THE FA EXCEPT THE FAR WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S OVER THE
EASTERN FA. MUCH WARMER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN FA MONDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY COOL TO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Unsettled weather is expected during the extended period, with
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Near to above
normal temperatures are forecast through midweek.

At the start of the period, weak ridging has pushed east on to the
Great Lakes region while an upper trough moves over the western
CONUS. This setup up establishes southwesterly flow over the High
Plains. At the surface, a boundary stalls over western Kansas. This
boundary will be the area to watch for storm development through
midweek. At this time, the better chance for severe weather appears
to be off to the east and south of the region where better moisture
is located.

Models disagree on how the upper pattern to the west progresses
throughout the work week. In addition, surface feature position and
timing is difficult to determine. Guidance has come into better
agreement that a second system could move towards the area from the
southwestern CONUS later in the week. Nevertheless, weak low
pressure systems pass through, along with disturbances in the upper
flow, as troughing moves eastward and decent low level moisture sits
in place. Precipitation chances could not be ruled out for any
period.

Temperatures gradually decrease throughout the extended. The warmest
day looks to be Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
before temperatures decrease into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Friday.
Lows will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The low stratus is
eroding on its southern edge this morning. It should clear KGLD by
18z, remaining just north of the site. KMCK will have MVFR
ceilings for the first few hours of the TAF, then cloud bases will
fall to IFR and should remain there through Sunday morning. A few
of the models have the ceilings lifting of MVFR for a few hours
during the night, however this seems unlikely. If this does occur, it
could be in response to the warm front moving through since there
will be a slight shift in the wind direction to the south at the
same time cloud bases raise briefly. Overnight fog will develop at
both sites, with the lowest visibility occurring at KGLD. The fog
and stratus end mid to late morning Sunday.

Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon, but most if
not all of the activity will remain south of KGLD.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211106
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
506 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH MONDAY night)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS
KANSAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST TODAY AS WEAK DYNAMICS
MOVE OVER THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
STRATUS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHWEST FA WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITH LOTS OF INSTABILITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR AROUND 40KTS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS SHOULD MOVE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40KTS. THIS WIND DIRECTION
WILL MOVE STORMS INTO MORE STABLE AIR NORTHEAST OF THE DRYLINE. CIN
TAKES OVER BY MID EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE SO
THAT STRATUS, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL RETURN AND LAST OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE
DRYLINE.  THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST BUT DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN IT EXACT POSITION. STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35 TO 45 KTS
OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH STRATUS LINGERING OVER
A LARGE PART OF THE FA EXCEPT THE FAR WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S OVER THE
EASTERN FA. MUCH WARMER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN FA MONDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY COOL TO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Unsettled weather is expected during the extended period, with
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Near to above
normal temperatures are forecast through midweek.

At the start of the period, weak ridging has pushed east on to the
Great Lakes region while an upper trough moves over the western
CONUS. This setup up establishes southwesterly flow over the High
Plains. At the surface, a boundary stalls over western Kansas. This
boundary will be the area to watch for storm development through
midweek. At this time, the better chance for severe weather appears
to be off to the east and south of the region where better moisture
is located.

Models disagree on how the upper pattern to the west progresses
throughout the work week. In addition, surface feature position and
timing is difficult to determine. Guidance has come into better
agreement that a second system could move towards the area from the
southwestern CONUS later in the week. Nevertheless, weak low
pressure systems pass through, along with disturbances in the upper
flow, as troughing moves eastward and decent low level moisture sits
in place. Precipitation chances could not be ruled out for any
period.

Temperatures gradually decrease throughout the extended. The warmest
day looks to be Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
before temperatures decrease into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Friday.
Lows will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 503 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING TO
MVFR AND EVEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
AGAIN TONIGHT AS MORE STRATUS FOG AND DRIZZLE MOVE INTO THE AREA.
KMCK WILL STAY AT MVFR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LOWER TO
LIFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS





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