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000
FXUS63 KGLD 182041
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MODERATE 850 MB FLOW
WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS MIXED TONIGHT...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PROVIDE LIFT BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONT IS DECENT...AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP
AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES...DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE WITH FAVORABLE CIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL
CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SINCE CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH REGION IS AROUND 300 TO 400 J/KG. NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANY HAIL OVER 1 INCH SINCE BULK SHEAR IS TOWARDS THE
LOWER END AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH MAY NOT BE THE GREATEST FOR LARGE
HAIL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING AT 15Z AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INCREASING TO 40% TO 50% AFTER 18Z WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS.
EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.00
INCH TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
BULK OF THAT WILL BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA SINCE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SINCE SOME INSTABILITY...AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE...WILL LINGER AND BULK SHEAR
IMPROVES TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH OVERSPREADS PLAINS WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES FORECAST
OVER OUR CWA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COUPLED WITH GOOD FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...EXPECTING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
FRONTAL ZONE. STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO DECREASE AS FRONT STALLS IN
THE SE...WITH 0-6KM WINDS DROPPING TO 15KT OR LESS IMMEDIATELY
ALONG FRONT. THIS COINCIDES WITH AREA OF CWA WHERE MODEL QPF
FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD/BASIN-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 0.5 THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THUNDERSTORM TRAINING. LCLS CONTINUE
TO BE HIGH THROUGH EVENT...FAVORING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HAIL/WIND THREAT IF WE DO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THERE MAY BE
A LULL IN COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM SHOULD
THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION EAST AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER REGION AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND TROUGH AXIS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS PLAINS WITH
NORTHERN JET STREAM WELL NORTH OVER CANADA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WARMING TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO A
DRY LINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY THEN NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WOULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A MUCH
MORE DEFINED DRY LINE AND THIS COULD PUSH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FURTHER WEST...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THESE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN PLACE. THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW DOES FOLLOW SIMILAR PATHS OF PAST
SPRINGTIME WIND/RFW EVENTS...AND WE COULD SEE ADVISORY WINDS AND
VERY LOW RH DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR WEST WHERE MIXED LAYER
TD VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WOULD SUPPORT RH 10-15 PERCENT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE PERIODS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE BACK OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND NW FLOW
WE SHOULD SEE LESS OF A RESPONSE IN TEMPS ALOFT...SO AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTH SURFACE WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...THEN
DECREASE BUT STILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
CIRRUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SITES AFTER 06Z...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER/ALW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MENTZER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 181735
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PATCHY FOG IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING...SO HAVE REMOVED FROM FORECASTS. WINDS ARE ALREADY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT COLBY. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL...
INCREASED THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE...JUST SHY OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN
THIS FLOW IS A SPLIT THAT IS NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST IN TWO
DISTINCT PIECES. FIRST A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH NEAR 100 METER
HEIGHT FALLS...IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN
END A CLOSED OFF LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WAS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

AT JET LEVEL...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF...SREF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST ON THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL THIS IS THE CASE AS WELL. THE SREF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. OVERALL THEY WERE TOO WARM. THE CANADIAN...GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS AND FOG THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS THAT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING IS
SHOWING...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG LOOK GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE ALREADY APPEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WITH STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MIXING WOULD
THINK THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FASTER. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE MODELS STARTING OUT TOO WARM MADE ME GO TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DOES LOOK LIKE IT DOES STAY BELOW
CRITERIA.

HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
THAT COMBINED WITH WINDS STAY RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING DETAILS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF...SREF AND NAM ARE CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
INITIATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BEHIND IT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A CAP STILL HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO A PROBLEM WITH HEATING UP AND BREAKING THIS CAP COULD BE THE
THICKENING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO AT THIS TIME PUT THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE. FRONTAL POSITION AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALMOST PROBLEMATIC.
TENDED TO LOWER THE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JET STRENGTH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE EVENING MAYBE A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT THE MODELS GO OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. MAIN MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS REALLY START
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND EVEN START CLOSING IT OFF. ALSO MODELS...
MAINLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...HANG UP THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

AM GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
DRAW FROM. WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WHICH IS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE
TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WHICH IS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING UP MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS MORE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MID/UPPER SYSTEM
IS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. AGAIN WILL
KEEP MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE STILL BEING PRESENT. HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS STILL 2 TO 3
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.

KEPT THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED. POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD GET EVEN COOLER.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OCCURS...COULD END UP WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUD COVER AND FOG BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE RIDGE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH MORE
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA...PULLING THE DRY LINE WITH IT. DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL WILL INHIBIT
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPPED DUE TO A WARM AIR MASS OVERLYING THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35KTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. IN
ADDITION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY LINE
BOTH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTH SURFACE WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...THEN
DECREASE BUT STILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
CIRRUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SITES AFTER 06Z...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MENTZER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 181404
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
804 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PATCHY FOG IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING...SO HAVE REMOVED FROM FORECASTS. WINDS ARE ALREADY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT COLBY. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL...
INCREASED THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE...JUST SHY OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN
THIS FLOW IS A SPLIT THAT IS NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST IN TWO
DISTINCT PIECES. FIRST A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH NEAR 100 METER
HEIGHT FALLS...IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN
END A CLOSED OFF LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WAS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

AT JET LEVEL...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF...SREF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST ON THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL THIS IS THE CASE AS WELL. THE SREF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. OVERALL THEY WERE TOO WARM. THE CANADIAN...GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS AND FOG THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS THAT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING IS
SHOWING...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG LOOK GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE ALREADY APPEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WITH STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MIXING WOULD
THINK THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FASTER. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE MODELS STARTING OUT TOO WARM MADE ME GO TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DOES LOOK LIKE IT DOES STAY BELOW
CRITERIA.

HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
THAT COMBINED WITH WINDS STAY RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING DETAILS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF...SREF AND NAM ARE CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
INITIATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BEHIND IT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A CAP STILL HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO A PROBLEM WITH HEATING UP AND BREAKING THIS CAP COULD BE THE
THICKENING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO AT THIS TIME PUT THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE. FRONTAL POSITION AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALMOST PROBLEMATIC.
TENDED TO LOWER THE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JET STRENGTH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE EVENING MAYBE A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT THE MODELS GO OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. MAIN MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS REALLY START
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND EVEN START CLOSING IT OFF. ALSO MODELS...
MAINLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...HANG UP THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

AM GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
DRAW FROM. WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WHICH IS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE
TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WHICH IS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING UP MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS MORE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MID/UPPER SYSTEM
IS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. AGAIN WILL
KEEP MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE STILL BEING PRESENT. HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS STILL 2 TO 3
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.

KEPT THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED. POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD GET EVEN COOLER.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OCCURS...COULD END UP WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUD COVER AND FOG BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE RIDGE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH MORE
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA...PULLING THE DRY LINE WITH IT. DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL WILL INHIBIT
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPPED DUE TO A WARM AIR MASS OVERLYING THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35KTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. IN
ADDITION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY LINE
BOTH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LIGHT FOG IS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. THERE MAY
BE A SCATTERED LOW DECK OF STRATUS NEAR KMCK VERY EARLY TODAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 181140
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN
THIS FLOW IS A SPLIT THAT IS NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST IN TWO
DISTINCT PIECES. FIRST A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH NEAR 100 METER
HEIGHT FALLS...IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN
END A CLOSED OFF LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WAS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

AT JET LEVEL...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF...SREF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST ON THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL THIS IS THE CASE AS WELL. THE SREF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. OVERALL THEY WERE TOO WARM. THE CANADIAN...GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS AND FOG THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS THAT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING IS
SHOWING...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG LOOK GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE ALREADY APPEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WITH STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MIXING WOULD
THINK THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FASTER. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE MODELS STARTING OUT TOO WARM MADE ME GO TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DOES LOOK LIKE IT DOES STAY BELOW
CRITERIA.

HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
THAT COMBINED WITH WINDS STAY RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING DETAILS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF...SREF AND NAM ARE CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
INITIATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BEHIND IT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A CAP STILL HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO A PROBLEM WITH HEATING UP AND BREAKING THIS CAP COULD BE THE
THICKENING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO AT THIS TIME PUT THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE. FRONTAL POSITION AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALMOST PROBLEMATIC.
TENDED TO LOWER THE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JET STRENGTH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE EVENING MAYBE A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT THE MODELS GO OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. MAIN MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS REALLY START
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND EVEN START CLOSING IT OFF. ALSO MODELS...
MAINLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...HANG UP THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

AM GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
DRAW FROM. WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WHICH IS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE
TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WHICH IS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING UP MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS MORE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MID/UPPER SYSTEM
IS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. AGAIN WILL
KEEP MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE STILL BEING PRESENT. HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS STILL 2 TO 3
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.

KEPT THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED. POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD GET EVEN COOLER.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OCCURS...COULD END UP WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUD COVER AND FOG BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE RIDGE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH MORE
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA...PULLING THE DRY LINE WITH IT. DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL WILL INHIBIT
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPPED DUE TO A WARM AIR MASS OVERLYING THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35KTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. IN
ADDITION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY LINE
BOTH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LIGHT FOG IS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. THERE MAY
BE A SCATTERED LOW DECK OF STRATUS NEAR KMCK VERY EARLY TODAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 181019
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN
THIS FLOW IS A SPLIT THAT IS NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST IN TWO
DISTINCT PIECES. FIRST A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH NEAR 100 METER
HEIGHT FALLS...IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN
END A CLOSED OFF LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WAS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

AT JET LEVEL...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF...SREF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST ON THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL THIS IS THE CASE AS WELL. THE SREF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. OVERALL THEY WERE TOO WARM. THE CANADIAN...GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS AND FOG THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS THAT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING IS
SHOWING...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG LOOK GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE ALREADY APPEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WITH STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MIXING WOULD
THINK THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FASTER. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE MODELS STARTING OUT TOO WARM MADE ME GO TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DOES LOOK LIKE IT DOES STAY BELOW
CRITERIA.

HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
THAT COMBINED WITH WINDS STAY RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING DETAILS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF...SREF AND NAM ARE CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
INITIATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BEHIND IT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A CAP STILL HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO A PROBLEM WITH HEATING UP AND BREAKING THIS CAP COULD BE THE
THICKENING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO AT THIS TIME PUT THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE. FRONTAL POSITION AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALMOST PROBLEMATIC.
TENDED TO LOWER THE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JET STRENGTH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE EVENING MAYBE A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT THE MODELS GO OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. MAIN MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS REALLY START
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND EVEN START CLOSING IT OFF. ALSO MODELS...
MAINLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...HANG UP THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

AM GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
DRAW FROM. WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WHICH IS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE
TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WHICH IS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING UP MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS MORE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MID/UPPER SYSTEM
IS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. AGAIN WILL
KEEP MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE STILL BEING PRESENT. HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS STILL 2 TO 3
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.

KEPT THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED. POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD GET EVEN COOLER.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OCCURS...COULD END UP WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUD COVER AND FOG BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE RIDGE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH MORE
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA...PULLING THE DRY LINE WITH IT. DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL WILL INHIBIT
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPPED DUE TO A WARM AIR MASS OVERLYING THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35KTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. IN
ADDITION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY LINE
BOTH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND A SURFACE
LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AFTER SUNSET. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MCK BETWEEN
11-13Z...BUT CURRENTLY FEEL THEY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY DO END UP FORMING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART






000
FXUS63 KGLD 180500
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA RANGED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST AS A BAND OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
BREAK UP TODAY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO
20 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN SPEED DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LEE TROUGH. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH STORMS MOVING EAST INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY
PROFILES...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE
TO A LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM.
SOUTH WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT...SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-20
MPH...BEFORE STRENGTHENING FURTHER LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 BUT WINDS ALOFT THAT
WOULD BE MIXED DOWN DID NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDERWAY. SOME STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
ADVERTISED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR A NORTON TO
TRIBUNE LINE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. SBCAPE AXIS OF UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KTS IS FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. THOSE
PARAMETERS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO QUARTER SIZE WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED BY THAT TIME SO NOTHING SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 70.

UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO COLORADO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS DESPITE LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL GET DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...DRY LINE WILL BE NEAR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF GETTING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE
NEARBY ON THURSDAY SO HARD TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE FAR EAST BY THAT
TIME. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL THEN NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND A SURFACE
LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AFTER SUNSET. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MCK BETWEEN
11-13Z...BUT CURRENTLY FEEL THEY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY DO END UP FORMING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART








000
FXUS63 KGLD 172353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA RANGED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST AS A BAND OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
BREAK UP TODAY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO
20 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN SPEED DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LEE TROUGH. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH STORMS MOVING EAST INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY
PROFILES...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE
TO A LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM.
SOUTH WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT...SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-20
MPH...BEFORE STRENGTHENING FURTHER LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 BUT WINDS ALOFT THAT
WOULD BE MIXED DOWN DID NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDERWAY. SOME STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
ADVERTISED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR A NORTON TO
TRIBUNE LINE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. SBCAPE AXIS OF UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KTS IS FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. THOSE
PARAMETERS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO QUARTER SIZE WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED BY THAT TIME SO NOTHING SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 70.

UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO COLORADO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS DESPITE LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL GET DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...DRY LINE WILL BE NEAR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF GETTING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE
NEARBY ON THURSDAY SO HARD TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE FAR EAST BY THAT
TIME. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL THEN NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
AND A SURFACE LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AFTER 14Z FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART








000
FXUS63 KGLD 172023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA RANGED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST AS A BAND OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
BREAK UP TODAY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO
20 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN SPEED DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LEE TROUGH. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE INDICATE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH STORMS MOVING EAST INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY
PROFILES...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE
TO A LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM.
SOUTH WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT...SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-20
MPH...BEFORE STRENGTHENING FURTHER LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 BUT WINDS ALOFT THAT
WOULD BE MIXED DOWN DID NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDERWAY. SOME STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
ADVERTISED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR A NORTON TO
TRIBUNE LINE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. SBCAPE AXIS OF UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KTS IS FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. THOSE
PARAMETERS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO QUARTER SIZE WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED BY THAT TIME SO NOTHING SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 70.

UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO COLORADO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS DESPITE LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL GET DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...DRY LINE WILL BE NEAR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF GETTING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE
NEARBY ON THURSDAY SO HARD TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE FAR EAST BY THAT
TIME. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL THEN NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MORNING STRATUS IS RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. STRATUS HAS CLEARED KMCK
AND SHOULD CLEAR KGLD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE...
ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES.
FOR NOW...HAVE PLACED A SCT MVFR GROUP IN TAF FOR KGLD AND FEW
MVFR GROUP FOR KMCK. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW
AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH








000
FXUS63 KGLD 171908
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
108 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

PLACED FOG IN FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...MAINLY YUMA COUNTY. FOG SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.

NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.

LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.

SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR A NORTON TO
TRIBUNE LINE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. SBCAPE AXIS OF UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KTS IS FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. THOSE
PARAMETERS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO QUARTER SIZE WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED BY THAT TIME SO NOTHING SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 70.

UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO COLORADO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS DESPITE LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL GET DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...DRY LINE WILL BE NEAR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF GETTING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE
NEARBY ON THURSDAY SO HARD TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE FAR EAST BY THAT
TIME. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL THEN NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MORNING STRATUS IS RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. STRATUS HAS CLEARED KMCK
AND SHOULD CLEAR KGLD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE...
ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES.
FOR NOW...HAVE PLACED A SCT MVFR GROUP IN TAF FOR KGLD AND FEW
MVFR GROUP FOR KMCK. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW
AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH






000
FXUS63 KGLD 171725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

PLACED FOG IN FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...MAINLY YUMA COUNTY. FOG SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.

NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.

LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.

SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION SATURDAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STORMS WILL TURN FROM MOVING
NORTHEAST TO MOVING SOUTH...WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN
END.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE DRY
LINE STILL REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO LINE...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE LCLS TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL AS WELL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BY THEN. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FILLS.

WEDNESDAY A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE IS PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TUESDAY SO A THE DRY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND EXTEND EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MORNING STRATUS IS RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. STRATUS HAS CLEARED KMCK
AND SHOULD CLEAR KGLD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE...
ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES.
FOR NOW...HAVE PLACED A SCT MVFR GROUP IN TAF FOR KGLD AND FEW
MVFR GROUP FOR KMCK. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW
AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH








000
FXUS63 KGLD 171304
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
704 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

PLACED FOG IN FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...MAINLY YUMA COUNTY. FOG SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.

NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.

LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.

SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION SATURDAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STORMS WILL TURN FROM MOVING
NORTHEAST TO MOVING SOUTH...WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN
END.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE DRY
LINE STILL REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO LINE...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE LCLS TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL AS WELL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BY THEN. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FILLS.

WEDNESDAY A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE IS PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TUESDAY SO A THE DRY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND EXTEND EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE ABOUT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. CURRENTLY IFR/NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK WITH NO MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING ANYTHING
ANYWHERE CLOSE. SO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE WIND FIELD
IS LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE.

AT THIS TIME BY 18Z DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AND THOSE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT BOTH SITES WITH KGLD BEING GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 171144
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
544 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.

NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.

LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.

SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION SATURDAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STORMS WILL TURN FROM MOVING
NORTHEAST TO MOVING SOUTH...WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN
END.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE DRY
LINE STILL REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO LINE...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE LCLS TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL AS WELL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BY THEN. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FILLS.

WEDNESDAY A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE IS PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TUESDAY SO A THE DRY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND EXTEND EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE ABOUT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. CURRENTLY IFR/NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK WITH NO MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING ANYTHING
ANYWHERE CLOSE. SO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE WIND FIELD
IS LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE.

AT THIS TIME BY 18Z DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AND THOSE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT BOTH SITES WITH KGLD BEING GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 171021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.

NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.

LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.

SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION SATURDAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STORMS WILL TURN FROM MOVING
NORTHEAST TO MOVING SOUTH...WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN
END.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE DRY
LINE STILL REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO LINE...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE LCLS TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL AS WELL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BY THEN. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FILLS.

WEDNESDAY A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE IS PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TUESDAY SO A THE DRY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND EXTEND EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE 11Z AND AFTER 15Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS IN THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST (WHERE CIGS CURRENTLY MVFR). A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT EXITING THE AREA BEFORE
18Z THURSDAY. EAST WINDS AROUND 6KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 11Z THURSDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12-17KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE 08Z AND AFTER 12Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AS KGLD.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE TO BECOME EASTERLY BY
14Z THEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DDT






000
FXUS63 KGLD 170430
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AND CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE FROM MONUMENT HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE SPRINGS.
LATEST 00Z RUC/NAM SLOWLY MOVE THIS SYSTEM EAST INTO OUR WESTERN
THROUGH SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 09Z THEN SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z OR SO.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BIGGEST OF WHICH WAS TO
ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z. OTHER
CHANGES WERE TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER...ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DP/WIND
GRIDS ETC. STILL LOOKING AT MINOR IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS
WHERE LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE
AT 21Z AS PLANNED. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THE PREVIOUS PEAK
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING
AROUND 30-32 MPH..FEEL THESE WILL BEGIN DROPPING OFF SHORTLY. NO
VWP AVAILABLE TO MONITOR WINDS ALOFT DIRECTLY SINCE RADOME PANELS
ARE BEING REPLACED ON 88D THIS WEEK AND RADAR IS DOWN FOR THE
COUNT UNTIL SATURDAY. 12Z NAM SHOWS 850-700 WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEEING THIS ALSO IN SURFACE
TRENDS...SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY DROP AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED.

HRRR HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
KS-NE BORDER IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED CU. COLD TEMPS AT 700 MB AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE GENERATED STEEP 850-500 LAPSE RATES. ADDED AN
AREA OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ESE ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR ONE MORE DAY ON THURSDAY GIVEN
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST...PROVIDING A COOLER E-SE
SURFACE FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER QUIET AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PASS ON THE NORTHERN RIDGE EDGE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND WITH ONLY LIMITED CAPE AVAILABLE...HAVE ONLY CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MUCH GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONE
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP
WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS OF MORE THAN
A HALF OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD BE QUITE WELCOME
CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CAP IS
BROKEN...STORMS WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME STRONG.
WITH CAPE OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS AT
MOST AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM...PARAMETERS ARE
NOT INDICATIVE OF A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM COMPLETELY MOVES OUT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WARMER WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS RIDGE
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A VIGOROUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...FAVORING A SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING THE
TRI-STATE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE DRYLINE FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REGION
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. WAS NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS SO HAVE
ADVERTISED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LIFT OF THIS
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS WE ARE NOW
ENTERING A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN ADDITION...IF THE DRYLINE IS FARTHER EAST AND THE
FORECAST WINDY CONDITIONS PAN OUT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE 11Z AND AFTER 15Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS IN THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST (WHERE CIGS CURRENTLY MVFR). A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT EXITING THE AREA BEFORE
18Z THURSDAY. EAST WINDS AROUND 6KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 11Z THURSDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12-17KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE 08Z AND AFTER 12Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AS KGLD.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE TO BECOME EASTERLY BY
14Z THEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99








000
FXUS63 KGLD 170230
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
830 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AND CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE FROM MONUMENT HILL SOUTH THROUGH THE SPRINGS.
LATEST 00Z RUC/NAM SLOWLY MOVE THIS SYSTEM EAST INTO OUR WESTERN
THROUGH SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 09Z THEN SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z OR SO.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BIGGEST OF WHICH WAS TO
ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z. OTHER
CHANGES WERE TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER...ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DP/WIND
GRIDS ETC. STILL LOOKING AT MINOR IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS
WHERE LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE
AT 21Z AS PLANNED. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THE PREVIOUS PEAK
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING
AROUND 30-32 MPH..FEEL THESE WILL BEGIN DROPPING OFF SHORTLY. NO
VWP AVAILABLE TO MONITOR WINDS ALOFT DIRECTLY SINCE RADOME PANELS
ARE BEING REPLACED ON 88D THIS WEEK AND RADAR IS DOWN FOR THE
COUNT UNTIL SATURDAY. 12Z NAM SHOWS 850-700 WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEEING THIS ALSO IN SURFACE
TRENDS...SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY DROP AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED.

HRRR HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
KS-NE BORDER IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED CU. COLD TEMPS AT 700 MB AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE GENERATED STEEP 850-500 LAPSE RATES. ADDED AN
AREA OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ESE ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR ONE MORE DAY ON THURSDAY GIVEN
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST...PROVIDING A COOLER E-SE
SURFACE FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER QUIET AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PASS ON THE NORTHERN RIDGE EDGE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND WITH ONLY LIMITED CAPE AVAILABLE...HAVE ONLY CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MUCH GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONE
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP
WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS OF MORE THAN
A HALF OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD BE QUITE WELCOME
CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CAP IS
BROKEN...STORMS WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME STRONG.
WITH CAPE OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS AT
MOST AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM...PARAMETERS ARE
NOT INDICATIVE OF A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM COMPLETELY MOVES OUT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WARMER WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS RIDGE
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A VIGOROUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...FAVORING A SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING THE
TRI-STATE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE DRYLINE FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REGION
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. WAS NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS SO HAVE
ADVERTISED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LIFT OF THIS
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS WE ARE NOW
ENTERING A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN ADDITION...IF THE DRYLINE IS FARTHER EAST AND THE
FORECAST WINDY CONDITIONS PAN OUT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT EXITING THE AREA BEFORE 18Z
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE BELOW 11KTS BY 01Z WHILE ALSO VEERING TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 12Z THURSDAY POSSIBLY DROPPING
INTO MVFR RANGE FROM 12Z-18Z. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK IN THE
1500-2000 FT RANGE. AFTER 18Z CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO AS KGLD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW 11KTS BY 02Z WHILE ALSO VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
14Z. FROM 15Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST BY 15Z...SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AND SOUTH AROUND
21Z. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS. MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH IN THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE A
SCATTERED DECK AROUND 2500 FT FROM 09Z-15Z. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99








000
FXUS63 KGLD 162310
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
510 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE
AT 21Z AS PLANNED. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THE PREVIOUS PEAK
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING
AROUND 30-32 MPH..FEEL THESE WILL BEGIN DROPPING OFF SHORTLY. NO
VWP AVAILABLE TO MONITOR WINDS ALOFT DIRECTLY SINCE RADOME PANELS
ARE BEING REPLACED ON 88D THIS WEEK AND RADAR IS DOWN FOR THE
COUNT UNTIL SATURDAY. 12Z NAM SHOWS 850-700 WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEEING THIS ALSO IN SURFACE
TRENDS...SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY DROP AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED.

HRRR HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
KS-NE BORDER IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED CU. COLD TEMPS AT 700 MB AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE GENERATED STEEP 850-500 LAPSE RATES. ADDED AN
AREA OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ESE ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR ONE MORE DAY ON THURSDAY GIVEN
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST...PROVIDING A COOLER E-SE
SURFACE FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER QUIET AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PASS ON THE NORTHERN RIDGE EDGE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND WITH ONLY LIMITED CAPE AVAILABLE...HAVE ONLY CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MUCH GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONE
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP
WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS OF MORE THAN
A HALF OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD BE QUITE WELCOME
CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CAP IS
BROKEN...STORMS WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME STRONG.
WITH CAPE OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS AT
MOST AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM...PARAMETERS ARE
NOT INDICATIVE OF A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM COMPLETELY MOVES OUT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WARMER WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS RIDGE
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A VIGOROUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...FAVORING A SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING THE
TRI-STATE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE DRYLINE FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REGION
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. WAS NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS SO HAVE
ADVERTISED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LIFT OF THIS
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS WE ARE NOW
ENTERING A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN ADDITION...IF THE DRYLINE IS FARTHER EAST AND THE
FORECAST WINDY CONDITIONS PAN OUT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT EXITING THE AREA BEFORE 18Z
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE BELOW 11KTS BY 01Z WHILE ALSO VEERING TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 12Z THURSDAY POSSIBLY DROPPING
INTO MVFR RANGE FROM 12Z-18Z. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK IN THE
1500-2000 FT RANGE. AFTER 18Z CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO AS KGLD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW 11KTS BY 02Z WHILE ALSO VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
14Z. FROM 15Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST BY 15Z...SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AND SOUTH AROUND
21Z. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS. MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH IN THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE A
SCATTERED DECK AROUND 2500 FT FROM 09Z-15Z. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99








000
FXUS63 KGLD 162123
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
323 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE
AT 21Z AS PLANNED. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THE PREVIOUS PEAK
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING
AROUND 30-32 MPH..FEEL THESE WILL BEGIN DROPPING OFF SHORTLY. NO
VWP AVAILABLE TO MONITOR WINDS ALOFT DIRECTLY SINCE RADOME PANELS
ARE BEING REPLACED ON 88D THIS WEEK AND RADAR IS DOWN FOR THE
COUNT UNTIL SATURDAY. 12Z NAM SHOWS 850-700 WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEEING THIS ALSO IN SURFACE
TRENDS...SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY DROP AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED.

HRRR HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
KS-NE BORDER IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED CU. COLD TEMPS AT 700 MB AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE GENERATED STEEP 850-500 LAPSE RATES. ADDED AN
AREA OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ESE ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR ONE MORE DAY ON THURSDAY GIVEN
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST...PROVIDING A COOLER E-SE
SURFACE FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER QUIET AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PASS ON THE NORTHERN RIDGE EDGE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND TRY TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND WITH ONLY LIMITED CAPE AVAILABLE...HAVE ONLY CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MUCH GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONE
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP
WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS OF MORE THAN
A HALF OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD BE QUITE WELCOME
CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CAP IS
BROKEN...STORMS WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME STRONG.
WITH CAPE OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS AT
MOST AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM...PARAMETERS ARE
NOT INDICATIVE OF A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM COMPLETELY MOVES OUT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WARMER WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS RIDGE
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A VIGOROUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...FAVORING A SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING THE
TRI-STATE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE DRYLINE FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REGION
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. WAS NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS SO HAVE
ADVERTISED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LIFT OF THIS
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS WE ARE NOW
ENTERING A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN ADDITION...IF THE DRYLINE IS FARTHER EAST AND THE
FORECAST WINDY CONDITIONS PAN OUT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE
FOR TAFS WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL JET...TO BEGIN
THE TAF PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR PEAK
GUSTS SINCE UPSTREAM SITES SHOW WINDS ALREADY REDUCED TO 35 KTS AT
K2V5 AND THE LOW-MID LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST.

THEREFORE...FOR KGLD HAVE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 39 KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 30 KTS AND BY 23Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 23 KTS. AROUND
SUNSET NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT...WINDS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FOR KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 29 KTS GUSTING
UP TO 35 KTS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 28 KTS AND BY 0Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 22 KTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KGLD 162037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE
AT 21Z AS PLANNED. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THE PREVIOUS PEAK
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING
AROUND 30-32 MPH..FEEL THESE WILL BEGIN DROPPING OFF SHORTLY. NO
VWP AVAILABLE TO MONITOR WINDS ALOFT DIRECTLY SINCE RADOME PANELS
ARE BEING REPLACED ON 88D THIS WEEK AND RADAR IS DOWN FOR THE
COUNT UNTIL SATURDAY. 12Z NAM SHOWS 850-700 WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEEING THIS ALSO IN SURFACE
TRENDS...SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY DROP AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED.

HRRR HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
KS-NE BORDER IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED CU. COLD TEMPS AT 700 MB AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE GENERATED STEEP 850-500 LAPSE RATES. ADDED AN
AREA OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ESE ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR ONE MORE DAY ON THURSDAY GIVEN
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST...PROVIDING A COOLER E-SE
SURFACE FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE
FOR TAFS WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL JET...TO BEGIN
THE TAF PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR PEAK
GUSTS SINCE UPSTREAM SITES SHOW WINDS ALREADY REDUCED TO 35 KTS AT
K2V5 AND THE LOW-MID LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST.

THEREFORE...FOR KGLD HAVE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 39 KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 30 KTS AND BY 23Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 23 KTS. AROUND
SUNSET NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT...WINDS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FOR KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 29 KTS GUSTING
UP TO 35 KTS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 28 KTS AND BY 0Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 22 KTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KGLD 161741
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1141 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST BELT OF NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 707 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY.  FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IS NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  BOTH CONTINUE TO BRING THE
BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA BUT THE AREA IS FURTHER SOUTH
SO THAT ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE SOTUHERN FA WILL BE IMPACTED. THE
TIMING OF BEST MOISTURE IS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE REST OF THE
FA WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE.  SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN FA THURSDAY MORNING, OTHER THAN SOME LATE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY VIRGA SHOWERS (THE TQ INDEX IS AROUND 14) IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE FA WILL BE DRY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT
POPS WILL BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH POPS ONLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY MINOR COVERING MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO.
REMAING PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE.

SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUIDANCE AND MODEL DATA
INDICATE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT WITH ONLY MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 15Z WITH DECREASING WIND BY 18Z.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL. MAX WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 35KTS OR 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER
60S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE
FOR TAFS WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL JET...TO BEGIN
THE TAF PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR PEAK
GUSTS SINCE UPSTREAM SITES SHOW WINDS ALREADY REDUCED TO 35 KTS AT
K2V5 AND THE LOW-MID LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST.

THEREFORE...FOR KGLD HAVE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 39 KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 30 KTS AND BY 23Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 23 KTS. AROUND
SUNSET NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT...WINDS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FOR KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 29 KTS GUSTING
UP TO 35 KTS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 28 KTS AND BY 0Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 22 KTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KGLD 161637
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST BELT OF NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 707 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY.  FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IS NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  BOTH CONTINUE TO BRING THE
BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA BUT THE AREA IS FURTHER SOUTH
SO THAT ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE SOTUHERN FA WILL BE IMPACTED. THE
TIMING OF BEST MOISTURE IS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE REST OF THE
FA WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE.  SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN FA THURSDAY MORNING, OTHER THAN SOME LATE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY VIRGA SHOWERS (THE TQ INDEX IS AROUND 14) IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE FA WILL BE DRY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT
POPS WILL BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH POPS ONLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY MINOR COVERING MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO.
REMAING PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE.

SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUIDANCE AND MODEL DATA
INDICATE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT WITH ONLY MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 15Z WITH DECREASING WIND BY 18Z.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL. MAX WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 35KTS OR 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER
60S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL ONLY A MINOR IMPACTS OF
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE
STORM WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. KMCK WILL
HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS








000
FXUS63 KGLD 161308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
708 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 707 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY.  FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IS NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  BOTH CONTINUE TO BRING THE
BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA BUT THE AREA IS FURTHER SOUTH
SO THAT ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE SOTUHERN FA WILL BE IMPACTED. THE
TIMING OF BEST MOISTURE IS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE REST OF THE
FA WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE.  SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN FA THURSDAY MORNING, OTHER THAN SOME LATE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY VIRGA SHOWERS (THE TQ INDEX IS AROUND 14) IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE FA WILL BE DRY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT
POPS WILL BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH POPS ONLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY MINOR COVERING MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO.
REMAING PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE.

SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUIDANCE AND MODEL DATA
INDICATE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT WITH ONLY MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 15Z WITH DECREASING WIND BY 18Z.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL. MAX WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 35KTS OR 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER
60S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL ONLY A MINOR IMPACTS OF
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE
STORM WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. KMCK WILL
HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS








000
FXUS63 KGLD 161131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL ONLY A MINOR IMPACTS OF
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE
STORM WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. KMCK WILL
HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS








000
FXUS63 KGLD 160823
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 10Z AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY 14Z-15Z NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY 00Z NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15KTS EXPECTED WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE OF 6-10KTS FROM
THE NORTHEAST FROM 02Z-06Z. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CIGS OF 6-9K FT POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z.

FOR KMCK ONLY...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MOVES TOWARD THE TERMINAL
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY 21-03Z...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A
THUNDERSTORM. TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST BUT
ITS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99









000
FXUS63 KGLD 160430
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS BROUGHT VERY WEAK RIDGING
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THIS SHIFTS EAST...THE STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW AND APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE FLOW AND
PRESSURE FIELDS. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER LATER TONIGHT. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN HAS BEEN THE
BEHAVIOR OF STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 25 KNOT GUSTS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WIND FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAT ARE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT RH VALUES
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AROUND OR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
FORCING FROM THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COLORADO
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE RAIN TO BEGIN BY EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
WET BULB PROFILE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAISES CONCERN FOR RAIN TO
QUICKLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT ALL RAIN
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT
BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ON HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND THUS THE ONSET OF SNOW. SINCE THERE IS
NOT A WARM LAYER ALOFT...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS TEMPERATURES FALL. THE TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR FIRST OVER EAST
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE REGION AROUND TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH
AND TEMPERATURES WARMER. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP LOWERING FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING A DUSTING. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AROUND 1-2 INCHES... SHOULD FALL OVER WICHITA AND
GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS EAST RAPIDLY THURSDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY NOON. TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY AS
WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CASE THERE IS SOME
SNOW TO MELT OFF IN THE MORNING.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-STATE AREA
IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 70S. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE SURFACE CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AND MUCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. THE CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A STRONGER FRONT
THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP. WITH THE INSTABILITY PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 AND
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-8 C/KM...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ELIMINATING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PLAINS BY
MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE GFS
MODEL IS FORECASTING WHAT WOULD BE THE FIRST...POTENTIALLY
LARGE...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...AS WITH MOST
SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR.
THE EUROPEAN SHOWS A STRONG SYSTEM AS WELL BUT KEEPS IT NORTH...OVER
MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. IF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WERE TO PAN
OUT...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LESS. ONE THING CAN BE
GUARANTEED WITH EITHER SOLUTION...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 10Z AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY 14Z-15Z NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY 00Z NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15KTS EXPECTED WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE OF 6-10KTS FROM
THE NORTHEAST FROM 02Z-06Z. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CIGS OF 6-9K FT POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z.

FOR KMCK ONLY...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MOVES TOWARD THE TERMINAL
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY 21-03Z...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A
THUNDERSTORM. TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST BUT
ITS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99








000
FXUS63 KGLD 152305
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS BROUGHT VERY WEAK RIDGING
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THIS SHIFTS EAST...THE STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW AND APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE FLOW AND
PRESSURE FIELDS. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER LATER TONIGHT. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN HAS BEEN THE
BEHAVIOR OF STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 25 KNOT GUSTS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WIND FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAT ARE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT RH VALUES
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AROUND OR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
FORCING FROM THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COLORADO
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE RAIN TO BEGIN BY EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
WET BULB PROFILE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAISES CONCERN FOR RAIN TO
QUICKLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT ALL RAIN
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT
BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ON HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND THUS THE ONSET OF SNOW. SINCE THERE IS
NOT A WARM LAYER ALOFT...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS TEMPERATURES FALL. THE TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR FIRST OVER EAST
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE REGION AROUND TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH
AND TEMPERATURES WARMER. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP LOWERING FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING A DUSTING. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AROUND 1-2 INCHES... SHOULD FALL OVER WICHITA AND
GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS EAST RAPIDLY THURSDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY NOON. TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY AS
WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CASE THERE IS SOME
SNOW TO MELT OFF IN THE MORNING.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-STATE AREA
IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 70S. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE SURFACE CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AND MUCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. THE CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A STRONGER FRONT
THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP. WITH THE INSTABILITY PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 AND
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-8 C/KM...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ELIMINATING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PLAINS BY
MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE GFS
MODEL IS FORECASTING WHAT WOULD BE THE FIRST...POTENTIALLY
LARGE...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...AS WITH MOST
SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR.
THE EUROPEAN SHOWS A STRONG SYSTEM AS WELL BUT KEEPS IT NORTH...OVER
MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. IF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WERE TO PAN
OUT...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LESS. ONE THING CAN BE
GUARANTEED WITH EITHER SOLUTION...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25KTS OR SO AT TAF ISSUANCE
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 12-14KTS BY 02Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z
OR SO BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10Z AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROM 10Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS EXPECTED...HIGHEST FROM
15Z-22Z. AFTER 23Z WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE TOWARD 14-17KTS WHILE
VEERING TO THE NORTH. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE CIGS AROUND 7-8K FT AFTER 23Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99








000
FXUS63 KGLD 152119
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
319 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS BROUGHT VERY WEAK RIDGING
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THIS SHIFTS EAST...THE STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW AND APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE FLOW AND
PRESSURE FIELDS. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER LATER TONIGHT. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN HAS BEEN THE
BEHAVIOR OF STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 25 KNOT GUSTS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WIND FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAT ARE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT RH VALUES
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AROUND OR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
FORCING FROM THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COLORADO
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE RAIN TO BEGIN BY EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
WET BULB PROFILE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAISES CONCERN FOR RAIN TO
QUICKLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT ALL RAIN
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT
BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ON HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND THUS THE ONSET OF SNOW. SINCE THERE IS
NOT A WARM LAYER ALOFT...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS TEMPERATURES FALL. THE TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR FIRST OVER EAST
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE REGION AROUND TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH
AND TEMPERATURES WARMER. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP LOWERING FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING A DUSTING. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AROUND 1-2 INCHES... SHOULD FALL OVER WICHITA AND
GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS EAST RAPIDLY THURSDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY NOON. TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY AS
WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CASE THERE IS SOME
SNOW TO MELT OFF IN THE MORNING.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-STATE AREA
IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 70S. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE SURFACE CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AND MUCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. THE CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A STRONGER FRONT
THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP. WITH THE INSTABILITY PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 AND
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-8 C/KM...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ELIMINATING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PLAINS BY
MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE GFS
MODEL IS FORECASTING WHAT WOULD BE THE FIRST...POTENTIALLY
LARGE...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...AS WITH MOST
SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR.
THE EUROPEAN SHOWS A STRONG SYSTEM AS WELL BUT KEEPS IT NORTH...OVER
MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. IF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WERE TO PAN
OUT...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LESS. ONE THING CAN BE
GUARANTEED WITH EITHER SOLUTION...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS PEAKING IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE 08Z TO 11Z
PERIOD CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BRB








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