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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271128
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
428 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND IOWA
STATE LINE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A
TIGHT TD GRADIENT FROM THE WEST (AROUND 10F) TO THE NORTHEAST (-2F).

REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE 12-15Z TIME
PERIOD THIS MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST...IF TEMPS IN
THE ADVISED AREA WERE TO DROP TO AROUND 4F OR LOWER WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT -15F WIND CHILLS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS
TEMPS STEADY IN THE WEST WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10F OR WARMER RANGE. AT THIS POINT I SEE NO REASON
TO CHANGE ADVISORY CONSIDERING HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE. CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE SIMILAR AS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER THE LIMITING FACTOR ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ONGOING ADVISORY THIS MORNING I PREFER
TO LET THE CURRENT ONE PLAY OUT.

TODAY...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
PARTS OF NW KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPARENT ON WEB CAMS AND OBSERVED AT WFO. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CONSIDERING THE LIGHT NATURE OF
THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE CWA IT IS HARD TO JUDGE HOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING AND TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BE
TOWARDS LOWER VALUES. MAIN THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE BEFORE 18Z...WITH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW DIMINISHING
AFTERWARDS. IT APPEARS 1-2" SHOULD STILL BE THE HIGH END OF
ACCUMULATION FROM NOW THROUGH MIDDAY (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70). AS WINDS INCREASE WE COULD STILL SEE BLOWING SNOW
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT AND TIED TO
ANY NEW SNOWFALL RATHER THAN OLD/CRUSTED OVER SNOW PACK. I KEPT
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MENTION AND DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED FOR
ADVISORY AS VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ISOLATED.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...H3 JET BEGINS TO TRANSITION NORTHWARD OVER
THE CWA AS TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SW US. RESULT WITH BE BROAD
AREA OF WEAK FORCING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BETTER FORCING
TIED TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER PRECIP SIGNALS EITHER WELL WEST
OF THE CWA...OR SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WE COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IN OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AND AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH 1-2" ON
THE HIGHER END OF TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY I TRENDED POPS
LOWER THROUGH ALL THESE PERIODS AND ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS TO BE IN
THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CORRELATING WITH BEST
PRECIP SIGNAL.

REGARDING TEMPS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WE SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLOW MODERATION TO TEMPS ALOFT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLANS
OVER THE TOP OF THE PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME
TEMPS...SO ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONSENSUS/MODEL TRENDS. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS HAVE THE JET POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY END UP KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WILL LIKELY ALSO MOVE THE JET ENHANCED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE
ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.

THE UPPER LOW CENTER THAT STARTS OUT AS A CLOSED LOW OVER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY.  THIS IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER BAJA AND ANOTHER LOW IN PHASE WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTIRE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
COLD AIR SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW IS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE KGLD TERMINAL WITH IFR VIS
AND MVFR CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD AT KMCK. CONDITIONS COULD VARY THIS MORNING AT KGLD THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR ISNT LIKELY UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AS LONG
AS LIGHT SNOW LINGERS. AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY BLOWING
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VIS DUE TO
THIS IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION DURING THIS UPDATE. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KGLD BASED ON TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BREAKS IN STRATUS ALLOWING FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
RESULT IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND MVFR DEVELOPING AT
KMCK LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...HOWEVER ADVECTION FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULE OUT.
LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO REDEVELOP...THOUGH BETTER CHANCE APPEAR TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271128
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
428 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND IOWA
STATE LINE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A
TIGHT TD GRADIENT FROM THE WEST (AROUND 10F) TO THE NORTHEAST (-2F).

REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE 12-15Z TIME
PERIOD THIS MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST...IF TEMPS IN
THE ADVISED AREA WERE TO DROP TO AROUND 4F OR LOWER WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT -15F WIND CHILLS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS
TEMPS STEADY IN THE WEST WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10F OR WARMER RANGE. AT THIS POINT I SEE NO REASON
TO CHANGE ADVISORY CONSIDERING HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE. CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE SIMILAR AS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER THE LIMITING FACTOR ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ONGOING ADVISORY THIS MORNING I PREFER
TO LET THE CURRENT ONE PLAY OUT.

TODAY...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
PARTS OF NW KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPARENT ON WEB CAMS AND OBSERVED AT WFO. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CONSIDERING THE LIGHT NATURE OF
THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE CWA IT IS HARD TO JUDGE HOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING AND TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BE
TOWARDS LOWER VALUES. MAIN THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE BEFORE 18Z...WITH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW DIMINISHING
AFTERWARDS. IT APPEARS 1-2" SHOULD STILL BE THE HIGH END OF
ACCUMULATION FROM NOW THROUGH MIDDAY (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70). AS WINDS INCREASE WE COULD STILL SEE BLOWING SNOW
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT AND TIED TO
ANY NEW SNOWFALL RATHER THAN OLD/CRUSTED OVER SNOW PACK. I KEPT
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MENTION AND DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED FOR
ADVISORY AS VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ISOLATED.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...H3 JET BEGINS TO TRANSITION NORTHWARD OVER
THE CWA AS TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SW US. RESULT WITH BE BROAD
AREA OF WEAK FORCING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BETTER FORCING
TIED TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER PRECIP SIGNALS EITHER WELL WEST
OF THE CWA...OR SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WE COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IN OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AND AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH 1-2" ON
THE HIGHER END OF TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY I TRENDED POPS
LOWER THROUGH ALL THESE PERIODS AND ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS TO BE IN
THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CORRELATING WITH BEST
PRECIP SIGNAL.

REGARDING TEMPS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WE SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLOW MODERATION TO TEMPS ALOFT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLANS
OVER THE TOP OF THE PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME
TEMPS...SO ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONSENSUS/MODEL TRENDS. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS HAVE THE JET POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY END UP KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WILL LIKELY ALSO MOVE THE JET ENHANCED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE
ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.

THE UPPER LOW CENTER THAT STARTS OUT AS A CLOSED LOW OVER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY.  THIS IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER BAJA AND ANOTHER LOW IN PHASE WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTIRE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
COLD AIR SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW IS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE KGLD TERMINAL WITH IFR VIS
AND MVFR CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD AT KMCK. CONDITIONS COULD VARY THIS MORNING AT KGLD THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR ISNT LIKELY UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AS LONG
AS LIGHT SNOW LINGERS. AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY BLOWING
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VIS DUE TO
THIS IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION DURING THIS UPDATE. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KGLD BASED ON TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BREAKS IN STRATUS ALLOWING FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
RESULT IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND MVFR DEVELOPING AT
KMCK LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...HOWEVER ADVECTION FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULE OUT.
LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO REDEVELOP...THOUGH BETTER CHANCE APPEAR TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 271023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND IOWA
STATE LINE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A
TIGHT TD GRADIENT FROM THE WEST (AROUND 10F) TO THE NORTHEAST (-2F).

REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE 12-15Z TIME
PERIOD THIS MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST...IF TEMPS IN
THE ADVISED AREA WERE TO DROP TO AROUND 4F OR LOWER WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT -15F WIND CHILLS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS
TEMPS STEADY IN THE WEST WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10F OR WARMER RANGE. AT THIS POINT I SEE NO REASON
TO CHANGE ADVISORY CONSIDERING HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE. CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE SIMILAR AS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER THE LIMITING FACTOR ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ONGOING ADVISORY THIS MORNING I PREFER
TO LET THE CURRENT ONE PLAY OUT.

TODAY...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
PARTS OF NW KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPARENT ON WEB CAMS AND OBSERVED AT WFO. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CONSIDERING THE LIGHT NATURE OF
THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE CWA IT IS HARD TO JUDGE HOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING AND TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BE
TOWARDS LOWER VALUES. MAIN THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE BEFORE 18Z...WITH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW DIMINISHING
AFTERWARDS. IT APPEARS 1-2" SHOULD STILL BE THE HIGH END OF
ACCUMULATION FROM NOW THROUGH MIDDAY (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70). AS WINDS INCREASE WE COULD STILL SEE BLOWING SNOW
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT AND TIED TO
ANY NEW SNOWFALL RATHER THAN OLD/CRUSTED OVER SNOW PACK. I KEPT
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MENTION AND DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED FOR
ADVISORY AS VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ISOLATED.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...H3 JET BEGINS TO TRANSITION NORTHWARD OVER
THE CWA AS TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SW US. RESULT WITH BE BROAD
AREA OF WEAK FORCING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BETTER FORCING
TIED TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER PRECIP SIGNALS EITHER WELL WEST
OF THE CWA...OR SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WE COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IN OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AND AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH 1-2" ON
THE HIGHER END OF TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY I TRENDED POPS
LOWER THROUGH ALL THESE PERIODS AND ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS TO BE IN
THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CORRELATING WITH BEST
PRECIP SIGNAL.

REGARDING TEMPS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WE SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLOW MODERATION TO TEMPS ALOFT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLANS
OVER THE TOP OF THE PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME
TEMPS...SO ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONSENSUS/MODEL TRENDS. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS HAVE THE JET POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY END UP KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WILL LIKELY ALSO MOVE THE JET ENHANCED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE
ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.

THE UPPER LOW CENTER THAT STARTS OUT AS A CLOSED LOW OVER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY.  THIS IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER BAJA AND ANOTHER LOW IN PHASE WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTIRE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
COLD AIR SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KGLD OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING.
MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY BUT MVFR WILL
PERSIST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KMCK SHOWS SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271023
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND IOWA
STATE LINE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A
TIGHT TD GRADIENT FROM THE WEST (AROUND 10F) TO THE NORTHEAST (-2F).

REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE 12-15Z TIME
PERIOD THIS MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST...IF TEMPS IN
THE ADVISED AREA WERE TO DROP TO AROUND 4F OR LOWER WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT -15F WIND CHILLS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS
TEMPS STEADY IN THE WEST WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10F OR WARMER RANGE. AT THIS POINT I SEE NO REASON
TO CHANGE ADVISORY CONSIDERING HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE. CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE SIMILAR AS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER THE LIMITING FACTOR ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ONGOING ADVISORY THIS MORNING I PREFER
TO LET THE CURRENT ONE PLAY OUT.

TODAY...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
PARTS OF NW KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPARENT ON WEB CAMS AND OBSERVED AT WFO. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CONSIDERING THE LIGHT NATURE OF
THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE CWA IT IS HARD TO JUDGE HOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING AND TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BE
TOWARDS LOWER VALUES. MAIN THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE BEFORE 18Z...WITH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW DIMINISHING
AFTERWARDS. IT APPEARS 1-2" SHOULD STILL BE THE HIGH END OF
ACCUMULATION FROM NOW THROUGH MIDDAY (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70). AS WINDS INCREASE WE COULD STILL SEE BLOWING SNOW
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT AND TIED TO
ANY NEW SNOWFALL RATHER THAN OLD/CRUSTED OVER SNOW PACK. I KEPT
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MENTION AND DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED FOR
ADVISORY AS VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ISOLATED.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...H3 JET BEGINS TO TRANSITION NORTHWARD OVER
THE CWA AS TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SW US. RESULT WITH BE BROAD
AREA OF WEAK FORCING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BETTER FORCING
TIED TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER PRECIP SIGNALS EITHER WELL WEST
OF THE CWA...OR SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WE COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IN OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AND AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH 1-2" ON
THE HIGHER END OF TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY I TRENDED POPS
LOWER THROUGH ALL THESE PERIODS AND ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS TO BE IN
THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CORRELATING WITH BEST
PRECIP SIGNAL.

REGARDING TEMPS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WE SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLOW MODERATION TO TEMPS ALOFT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLANS
OVER THE TOP OF THE PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME
TEMPS...SO ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONSENSUS/MODEL TRENDS. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS HAVE THE JET POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY END UP KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WILL LIKELY ALSO MOVE THE JET ENHANCED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE
ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.

THE UPPER LOW CENTER THAT STARTS OUT AS A CLOSED LOW OVER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY.  THIS IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER BAJA AND ANOTHER LOW IN PHASE WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTIRE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
COLD AIR SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KGLD OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING.
MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY BUT MVFR WILL
PERSIST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KMCK SHOWS SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 270507
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1007 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DO NOT PLAN ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR SNOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT FOR BLOWING
SNOW EITHER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY HAZARD WHICH WARRANTS A HIGHLIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST IT COULD BE
NECESSARY IN THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PER 700-500MB
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING VARYING
DEGREES OF SNOWFALL CHANCES TO THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT A
WARMING TREND.

MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE -10 TO -16F RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE 850-500MB MOISTURE DECREASES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER VERY POSSIBLY LESS THEN ADVERTISED. LOWS IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT QUICKLY EXITING
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM AND
COLDER AIR AT THE END OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT
SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

SHOULDNT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY PUSHING THE COLDER AIR TO THE EAST. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WIND
CHILL READINGS OF -10F TO -15F POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KGLD OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING.
MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY BUT MVFR WILL
PERSIST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KMCK SHOWS SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DO NOT PLAN ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR SNOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT FOR BLOWING
SNOW EITHER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY HAZARD WHICH WARRANTS A HIGHLIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST IT COULD BE
NECESSARY IN THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PER 700-500MB
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING VARYING
DEGREES OF SNOWFALL CHANCES TO THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT A
WARMING TREND.

MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE -10 TO -16F RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE 850-500MB MOISTURE DECREASES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER VERY POSSIBLY LESS THEN ADVERTISED. LOWS IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT QUICKLY EXITING
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM AND
COLDER AIR AT THE END OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT
SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

SHOULDNT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY PUSHING THE COLDER AIR TO THE EAST. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WIND
CHILL READINGS OF -10F TO -15F POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KGLD AND REMAIN
THERE AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT THE SITE. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY 18Z FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 262338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DO NOT PLAN ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR SNOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT FOR BLOWING
SNOW EITHER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY HAZARD WHICH WARRANTS A HIGHLIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST IT COULD BE
NECESSARY IN THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PER 700-500MB
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING VARYING
DEGREES OF SNOWFALL CHANCES TO THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT A
WARMING TREND.

MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE -10 TO -16F RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE 850-500MB MOISTURE DECREASES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER VERY POSSIBLY LESS THEN ADVERTISED. LOWS IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT QUICKLY EXITING
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM AND
COLDER AIR AT THE END OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT
SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

SHOULDNT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY PUSHING THE COLDER AIR TO THE EAST. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WIND
CHILL READINGS OF -10F TO -15F POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KGLD AND REMAIN
THERE AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT THE SITE. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY 18Z FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DO NOT PLAN ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR SNOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT FOR BLOWING
SNOW EITHER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY HAZARD WHICH WARRANTS A HIGHLIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST IT COULD BE
NECESSARY IN THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PER 700-500MB
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING VARYING
DEGREES OF SNOWFALL CHANCES TO THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT A
WARMING TREND.

MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE -10 TO -16F RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE 850-500MB MOISTURE DECREASES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER VERY POSSIBLY LESS THEN ADVERTISED. LOWS IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT QUICKLY EXITING
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM AND
COLDER AIR AT THE END OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT
SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

SHOULDNT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY PUSHING THE COLDER AIR TO THE EAST. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WIND
CHILL READINGS OF -10F TO -15F POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AT KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

AT KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DO NOT PLAN ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR SNOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT FOR BLOWING
SNOW EITHER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY HAZARD WHICH WARRANTS A HIGHLIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST IT COULD BE
NECESSARY IN THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PER 700-500MB
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING VARYING
DEGREES OF SNOWFALL CHANCES TO THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT A
WARMING TREND.

MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE -10 TO -16F RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE 850-500MB MOISTURE DECREASES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER VERY POSSIBLY LESS THEN ADVERTISED. LOWS IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT QUICKLY EXITING
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM AND
COLDER AIR AT THE END OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT
SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

SHOULDNT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY PUSHING THE COLDER AIR TO THE EAST. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WIND
CHILL READINGS OF -10F TO -15F POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AT KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

AT KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 262026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DO NOT PLAN ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR SNOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT FOR BLOWING
SNOW EITHER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY HAZARD WHICH WARRANTS A HIGHLIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST IT COULD BE
NECESSARY IN THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AT KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

AT KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261726
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AT KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

AT KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261726
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AT KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

AT KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261121
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

2000-3000 KFT AGL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD EARLY
THIS MORNING...THOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD NORTH AND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL...AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION
AT ANY POINT IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW
AT KGLD AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AS GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL SOUTH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261121
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

2000-3000 KFT AGL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD EARLY
THIS MORNING...THOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD NORTH AND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL...AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION
AT ANY POINT IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW
AT KGLD AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AS GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL SOUTH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 261121
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

2000-3000 KFT AGL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD EARLY
THIS MORNING...THOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD NORTH AND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL...AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION
AT ANY POINT IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW
AT KGLD AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AS GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL SOUTH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261121
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

2000-3000 KFT AGL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD EARLY
THIS MORNING...THOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD NORTH AND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL...AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION
AT ANY POINT IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW
AT KGLD AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AS GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL SOUTH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT DUE TO
METARS UPSTREAM SHOWING MVFR CIGS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UP AT KGLD. KMCK WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KGLD
INDICATES STRATUS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT DUE TO
METARS UPSTREAM SHOWING MVFR CIGS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UP AT KGLD. KMCK WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KGLD
INDICATES STRATUS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT DUE TO
METARS UPSTREAM SHOWING MVFR CIGS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UP AT KGLD. KMCK WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KGLD
INDICATES STRATUS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT DUE TO
METARS UPSTREAM SHOWING MVFR CIGS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UP AT KGLD. KMCK WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KGLD
INDICATES STRATUS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260543
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REACHING
ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA...SIMILAR TO
UPPER PATTERN A FEW DAYS AGO. SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY GRADIENT DECREASES A
BIT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND GOVE.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH TO TWO. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
(ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS) MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO. LESS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MID TEENS WEST TO LOW/MID 20S EAST/NORTHEAST. FOR SATURDAY MID TO
UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER AIR PATTERN
SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT DUE TO
METARS UPSTREAM SHOWING MVFR CIGS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UP AT KGLD. KMCK WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KGLD
INDICATES STRATUS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260543
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REACHING
ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA...SIMILAR TO
UPPER PATTERN A FEW DAYS AGO. SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY GRADIENT DECREASES A
BIT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND GOVE.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH TO TWO. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
(ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS) MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO. LESS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MID TEENS WEST TO LOW/MID 20S EAST/NORTHEAST. FOR SATURDAY MID TO
UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER AIR PATTERN
SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT DUE TO
METARS UPSTREAM SHOWING MVFR CIGS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UP AT KGLD. KMCK WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KGLD
INDICATES STRATUS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260543
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REACHING
ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA...SIMILAR TO
UPPER PATTERN A FEW DAYS AGO. SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY GRADIENT DECREASES A
BIT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND GOVE.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH TO TWO. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
(ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS) MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO. LESS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MID TEENS WEST TO LOW/MID 20S EAST/NORTHEAST. FOR SATURDAY MID TO
UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER AIR PATTERN
SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT DUE TO
METARS UPSTREAM SHOWING MVFR CIGS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UP AT KGLD. KMCK WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KGLD
INDICATES STRATUS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260543
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REACHING
ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA...SIMILAR TO
UPPER PATTERN A FEW DAYS AGO. SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY GRADIENT DECREASES A
BIT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND GOVE.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH TO TWO. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
(ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS) MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO. LESS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MID TEENS WEST TO LOW/MID 20S EAST/NORTHEAST. FOR SATURDAY MID TO
UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER AIR PATTERN
SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT DUE TO
METARS UPSTREAM SHOWING MVFR CIGS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK
UP AT KGLD. KMCK WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KGLD
INDICATES STRATUS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252239
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
339 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REACHING
ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA...SIMILAR TO
UPPER PATTERN A FEW DAYS AGO. SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY GRADIENT DECREASES A
BIT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND GOVE.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH TO TWO. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
(ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS) MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO. LESS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MID TEENS WEST TO LOW/MID 20S EAST/NORTHEAST. FOR SATURDAY MID TO
UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER AIR PATTERN
SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND KMCK SHOULD CONTINUE VFR THIS
EVENING WITH SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD BASES INCREASING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. KGLD AND KMCK WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 06Z
AND ESPECIALLY AROUND 12Z AS SOME STRATUS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AT KMCK BUT
STRATUS WILL BE STUBBORN AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 252239
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
339 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REACHING
ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA...SIMILAR TO
UPPER PATTERN A FEW DAYS AGO. SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY GRADIENT DECREASES A
BIT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND GOVE.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH TO TWO. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
(ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS) MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO. LESS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MID TEENS WEST TO LOW/MID 20S EAST/NORTHEAST. FOR SATURDAY MID TO
UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER AIR PATTERN
SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND KMCK SHOULD CONTINUE VFR THIS
EVENING WITH SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD BASES INCREASING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. KGLD AND KMCK WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 06Z
AND ESPECIALLY AROUND 12Z AS SOME STRATUS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AT KMCK BUT
STRATUS WILL BE STUBBORN AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252120
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REACHING
ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA...SIMILAR TO
UPPER PATTERN A FEW DAYS AGO. SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY GRADIENT DECREASES A
BIT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND GOVE.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH TO TWO. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
(ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS) MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO. LESS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MID TEENS WEST TO LOW/MID 20S EAST/NORTHEAST. FOR SATURDAY MID TO
UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER AIR PATTERN
SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 252120
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REACHING
ILLINOIS BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA...SIMILAR TO
UPPER PATTERN A FEW DAYS AGO. SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY GRADIENT DECREASES A
BIT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND GOVE.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH TO TWO. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
(ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS) MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO. LESS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 10F. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MID TEENS WEST TO LOW/MID 20S EAST/NORTHEAST. FOR SATURDAY MID TO
UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER AIR PATTERN
SIMILAR TO A FEW DAYS AGO WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 252014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW WILL ONLY LAST FOR TEN MINUTES OR SO OVER ANY LOCATION
BEFORE ENDING. TOWARD LATE MORNING LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE
PRECIP. TO COME TO AN END.

TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A NEAR SATURATED COLUMN UP THROUGH
600MB OR SO. DID NOT ADD CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AFTERNOON
YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW WILL ONLY LAST FOR TEN MINUTES OR SO OVER ANY LOCATION
BEFORE ENDING. TOWARD LATE MORNING LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE
PRECIP. TO COME TO AN END.

TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A NEAR SATURATED COLUMN UP THROUGH
600MB OR SO. DID NOT ADD CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AFTERNOON
YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW WILL ONLY LAST FOR TEN MINUTES OR SO OVER ANY LOCATION
BEFORE ENDING. TOWARD LATE MORNING LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE
PRECIP. TO COME TO AN END.

TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A NEAR SATURATED COLUMN UP THROUGH
600MB OR SO. DID NOT ADD CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AFTERNOON
YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251358
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
658 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW WILL ONLY LAST FOR TEN MINUTES OR SO OVER ANY LOCATION
BEFORE ENDING. TOWARD LATE MORNING LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE
PRECIP. TO COME TO AN END.

TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A NEAR SATURATED COLUMN UP THROUGH
600MB OR SO. DID NOT ADD CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AFTERNOON
YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE
TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. CEILINGS MAY ALSO BECOME MVFR
BETWEEN 16-21Z...BUT FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AFTER 03Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251358
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
658 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW WILL ONLY LAST FOR TEN MINUTES OR SO OVER ANY LOCATION
BEFORE ENDING. TOWARD LATE MORNING LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE
PRECIP. TO COME TO AN END.

TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A NEAR SATURATED COLUMN UP THROUGH
600MB OR SO. DID NOT ADD CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AFTERNOON
YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE
TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. CEILINGS MAY ALSO BECOME MVFR
BETWEEN 16-21Z...BUT FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AFTER 03Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251358
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
658 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW WILL ONLY LAST FOR TEN MINUTES OR SO OVER ANY LOCATION
BEFORE ENDING. TOWARD LATE MORNING LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE
PRECIP. TO COME TO AN END.

TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A NEAR SATURATED COLUMN UP THROUGH
600MB OR SO. DID NOT ADD CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AFTERNOON
YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE
TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. CEILINGS MAY ALSO BECOME MVFR
BETWEEN 16-21Z...BUT FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AFTER 03Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251208
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE
TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. CEILINGS MAY ALSO BECOME MVFR
BETWEEN 16-21Z...BUT FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AFTER 03Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251208
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE
TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. CEILINGS MAY ALSO BECOME MVFR
BETWEEN 16-21Z...BUT FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AFTER 03Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251208
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE
TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. CEILINGS MAY ALSO BECOME MVFR
BETWEEN 16-21Z...BUT FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AFTER 03Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251008
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
308 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A COLDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR EAST
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO JUST EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD IT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TURNS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW TAPERS OFF SOME AND MOVES SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW
SAGS SOUTH AND TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
SNOW HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT.  CURRENTLY HAVE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAXING OUT JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO OVER THE 48HR+ TIME PERIOD THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN100-150 WILL
GIVE WAY TO BKN035-050 BY 17Z-21Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME VCSH THRU THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
REGION WITH NO VISIBILITY REDUCTION. WINDS WILL BE MAIN FOR FOR
THIS FORECAST AS WNW WINDS 10-15KTS THRU 13Z-17ZZ WILL GIVE WAY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250520
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AT 800 PM MST...TEMPERATURES RANGE
MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME SPOT 20S SHOWING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY FOR MOST
LOCALES...BUT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THESE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO OVERNIGHT FORECASTED LOWS IN THE 20S...AIDED
BY REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER AREA AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS. OVERALL FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...GOING NUMBERS FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH CURRENT TRENDS FROM LATEST OBS...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN100-150 WILL
GIVE WAY TO BKN035-050 BY 17Z-21Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME VCSH THRU THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
REGION WITH NO VISIBILITY REDUCTION. WINDS WILL BE MAIN FOR FOR
THIS FORECAST AS WNW WINDS 10-15KTS THRU 13Z-17ZZ WILL GIVE WAY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-30KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250520
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AT 800 PM MST...TEMPERATURES RANGE
MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME SPOT 20S SHOWING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY FOR MOST
LOCALES...BUT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THESE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO OVERNIGHT FORECASTED LOWS IN THE 20S...AIDED
BY REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER AREA AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS. OVERALL FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...GOING NUMBERS FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH CURRENT TRENDS FROM LATEST OBS...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN100-150 WILL
GIVE WAY TO BKN035-050 BY 17Z-21Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME VCSH THRU THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
REGION WITH NO VISIBILITY REDUCTION. WINDS WILL BE MAIN FOR FOR
THIS FORECAST AS WNW WINDS 10-15KTS THRU 13Z-17ZZ WILL GIVE WAY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-30KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
820 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AT 800 PM MST...TEMPERATURES RANGE
MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME SPOT 20S SHOWING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY FOR MOST
LOCALES...BUT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THESE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO OVERNIGHT FORECASTED LOWS IN THE 20S...AIDED
BY REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER AREA AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS. OVERALL FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...GOING NUMBERS FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH CURRENT TRENDS FROM LATEST OBS...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECTING
FEW-SCT200-250 TO GIVE WAY TO BKN050-100 BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. KMCK
MAY SEE BKN035 BY 20Z WED. LIGHT -RW WILL BE IN VICINITY OF BOTH
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NO VSBY REDUCTION.
WINDS MEANDERING WNW/WSW (5-15KTS) THRU 16Z TOMORROW...THEN
MAINLY NORTH 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
820 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AT 800 PM MST...TEMPERATURES RANGE
MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME SPOT 20S SHOWING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY FOR MOST
LOCALES...BUT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THESE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO OVERNIGHT FORECASTED LOWS IN THE 20S...AIDED
BY REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER AREA AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS. OVERALL FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...GOING NUMBERS FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH CURRENT TRENDS FROM LATEST OBS...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECTING
FEW-SCT200-250 TO GIVE WAY TO BKN050-100 BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. KMCK
MAY SEE BKN035 BY 20Z WED. LIGHT -RW WILL BE IN VICINITY OF BOTH
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NO VSBY REDUCTION.
WINDS MEANDERING WNW/WSW (5-15KTS) THRU 16Z TOMORROW...THEN
MAINLY NORTH 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MINOR UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS FOR OBS
OVER PAST FEW HOURS. CWA STILL REMAINS UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW WITH
A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS FROM THE 30S IN THE WSW...TO THE 40S IN THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. WILL MONITOR AREA TEMPS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HRS
NOW THAT SUNSET HAS COME UPON THE AREA TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS ARE
NEEDED BY NEXT ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECTING
FEW-SCT200-250 TO GIVE WAY TO BKN050-100 BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. KMCK
MAY SEE BKN035 BY 20Z WED. LIGHT -RW WILL BE IN VICINITY OF BOTH
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NO VSBY REDUCTION.
WINDS MEANDERING WNW/WSW (5-15KTS) THRU 16Z TOMORROW...THEN
MAINLY NORTH 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MINOR UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS FOR OBS
OVER PAST FEW HOURS. CWA STILL REMAINS UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW WITH
A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS FROM THE 30S IN THE WSW...TO THE 40S IN THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. WILL MONITOR AREA TEMPS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HRS
NOW THAT SUNSET HAS COME UPON THE AREA TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS ARE
NEEDED BY NEXT ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECTING
FEW-SCT200-250 TO GIVE WAY TO BKN050-100 BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. KMCK
MAY SEE BKN035 BY 20Z WED. LIGHT -RW WILL BE IN VICINITY OF BOTH
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NO VSBY REDUCTION.
WINDS MEANDERING WNW/WSW (5-15KTS) THRU 16Z TOMORROW...THEN
MAINLY NORTH 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECTING
FEW-SCT200-250 TO GIVE WAY TO BKN050-100 BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. KMCK
MAY SEE BKN035 BY 20Z WED. LIGHT -RW WILL BE IN VICINITY OF BOTH
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NO VSBY REDUCTION.
WINDS MEANDERING WNW/WSW (5-15KTS) THRU 16Z TOMORROW...THEN
MAINLY NORTH 15-30KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECTING
FEW-SCT200-250 TO GIVE WAY TO BKN050-100 BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. KMCK
MAY SEE BKN035 BY 20Z WED. LIGHT -RW WILL BE IN VICINITY OF BOTH
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NO VSBY REDUCTION.
WINDS MEANDERING WNW/WSW (5-15KTS) THRU 16Z TOMORROW...THEN
MAINLY NORTH 15-30KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 242055
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
20Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW 12KTS AFTER 21Z. WINDS BACK TO THE WEST
5-10KTS FROM 01Z-07Z THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
FROM 08Z-12Z. AFTER 13Z WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12KTS VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 15G23KTS BY 15Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS BY 21Z WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY 01Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AFTER 15Z LOWERING CIGS BUT REMAINING VFR. MAY SEE A
RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS AN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z BEFORE FALLING UNDER
12KTS BY 20Z. WEST WIND 5-10KTS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z LOOKS TO VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS BY 16Z AS A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES
THE TERMINAL. MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO KGLD MAY SEE A RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINAL BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS IN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 242055
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
20Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW 12KTS AFTER 21Z. WINDS BACK TO THE WEST
5-10KTS FROM 01Z-07Z THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
FROM 08Z-12Z. AFTER 13Z WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12KTS VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 15G23KTS BY 15Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS BY 21Z WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY 01Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AFTER 15Z LOWERING CIGS BUT REMAINING VFR. MAY SEE A
RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS AN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z BEFORE FALLING UNDER
12KTS BY 20Z. WEST WIND 5-10KTS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z LOOKS TO VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS BY 16Z AS A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES
THE TERMINAL. MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO KGLD MAY SEE A RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINAL BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS IN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH SMALLER
SCALE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND MOVING OVER THE AREA.  THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  SNOWFALL CHANCES
WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE POSITION OF THE 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE 850MB TROUGH LOOK
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. LAST WEEKEND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH THE 850MB TROUGH AND NEUTRAL THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE VERY
INSTRUMENTAL WITH DEVELOPING SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE 850MB TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME
LOCATION AS LAST WEEKEND...WHICH LOOKS GOOD FOR GETTING SOME
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER IF THE MODELS
END UP PUSHING THE 850MB TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY GO SOUTH WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
20Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW 12KTS AFTER 21Z. WINDS BACK TO THE WEST
5-10KTS FROM 01Z-07Z THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
FROM 08Z-12Z. AFTER 13Z WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12KTS VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 15G23KTS BY 15Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS BY 21Z WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY 01Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AFTER 15Z LOWERING CIGS BUT REMAINING VFR. MAY SEE A
RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS AN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z BEFORE FALLING UNDER
12KTS BY 20Z. WEST WIND 5-10KTS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z LOOKS TO VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS BY 16Z AS A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES
THE TERMINAL. MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO KGLD MAY SEE A RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINAL BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS IN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 241910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH SMALLER
SCALE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND MOVING OVER THE AREA.  THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  SNOWFALL CHANCES
WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE POSITION OF THE 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE 850MB TROUGH LOOK
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. LAST WEEKEND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH THE 850MB TROUGH AND NEUTRAL THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE VERY
INSTRUMENTAL WITH DEVELOPING SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE 850MB TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME
LOCATION AS LAST WEEKEND...WHICH LOOKS GOOD FOR GETTING SOME
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER IF THE MODELS
END UP PUSHING THE 850MB TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY GO SOUTH WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
20Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW 12KTS AFTER 21Z. WINDS BACK TO THE WEST
5-10KTS FROM 01Z-07Z THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
FROM 08Z-12Z. AFTER 13Z WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12KTS VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 15G23KTS BY 15Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS BY 21Z WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY 01Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AFTER 15Z LOWERING CIGS BUT REMAINING VFR. MAY SEE A
RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS AN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z BEFORE FALLING UNDER
12KTS BY 20Z. WEST WIND 5-10KTS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z LOOKS TO VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS BY 16Z AS A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES
THE TERMINAL. MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO KGLD MAY SEE A RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINAL BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS IN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH SMALLER
SCALE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND MOVING OVER THE AREA.  THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  SNOWFALL CHANCES
WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE POSITION OF THE 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE 850MB TROUGH LOOK
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. LAST WEEKEND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH THE 850MB TROUGH AND NEUTRAL THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE VERY
INSTRUMENTAL WITH DEVELOPING SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE 850MB TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME
LOCATION AS LAST WEEKEND...WHICH LOOKS GOOD FOR GETTING SOME
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER IF THE MODELS
END UP PUSHING THE 850MB TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY GO SOUTH WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
20Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW 12KTS AFTER 21Z. WINDS BACK TO THE WEST
5-10KTS FROM 01Z-07Z THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
FROM 08Z-12Z. AFTER 13Z WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12KTS VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 15G23KTS BY 15Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS BY 21Z WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY 01Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AFTER 15Z LOWERING CIGS BUT REMAINING VFR. MAY SEE A
RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS AN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z BEFORE FALLING UNDER
12KTS BY 20Z. WEST WIND 5-10KTS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z LOOKS TO VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS BY 16Z AS A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES
THE TERMINAL. MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO KGLD MAY SEE A RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINAL BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS IN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH SMALLER
SCALE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND MOVING OVER THE AREA.  THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  SNOWFALL CHANCES
WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE POSITION OF THE 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE 850MB TROUGH LOOK
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. LAST WEEKEND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH THE 850MB TROUGH AND NEUTRAL THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE VERY
INSTRUMENTAL WITH DEVELOPING SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE 850MB TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME
LOCATION AS LAST WEEKEND...WHICH LOOKS GOOD FOR GETTING SOME
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER IF THE MODELS
END UP PUSHING THE 850MB TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY GO SOUTH WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
20Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW 12KTS AFTER 21Z. WINDS BACK TO THE WEST
5-10KTS FROM 01Z-07Z THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
FROM 08Z-12Z. AFTER 13Z WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12KTS VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 15G23KTS BY 15Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS BY 21Z WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY 01Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AFTER 15Z LOWERING CIGS BUT REMAINING VFR. MAY SEE A
RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS AN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z BEFORE FALLING UNDER
12KTS BY 20Z. WEST WIND 5-10KTS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z LOOKS TO VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS BY 16Z AS A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES
THE TERMINAL. MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO KGLD MAY SEE A RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINAL BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS IN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 241715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1015 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
COVER REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
MOVES SOUTH OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DEEPENS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A POSSIBILITY MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A COLDER REGION OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLDER AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIDES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH UPSLOPE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IN PLACE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT A POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH SMALLER
SCALE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND MOVING OVER THE AREA.  THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  SNOWFALL CHANCES
WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE POSITION OF THE 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE 850MB TROUGH LOOK
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. LAST WEEKEND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH THE 850MB TROUGH AND NEUTRAL THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE VERY
INSTRUMENTAL WITH DEVELOPING SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE 850MB TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME
LOCATION AS LAST WEEKEND...WHICH LOOKS GOOD FOR GETTING SOME
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER IF THE MODELS
END UP PUSHING THE 850MB TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY GO SOUTH WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
20Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW 12KTS AFTER 21Z. WINDS BACK TO THE WEST
5-10KTS FROM 01Z-07Z THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
FROM 08Z-12Z. AFTER 13Z WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12KTS VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST AT 15G23KTS BY 15Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS BY 21Z WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY 01Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AFTER 15Z LOWERING CIGS BUT REMAINING VFR. MAY SEE A
RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS AN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z BEFORE FALLING UNDER
12KTS BY 20Z. WEST WIND 5-10KTS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z LOOKS TO VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS BY 16Z AS A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES
THE TERMINAL. MAY SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO KGLD MAY SEE A RAIN SHOWER NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINAL BUT RIGHT NOW THE ISOLATED NATURE PREVENTS IN INCLUSION
INTO THE TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99




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