000
FXUS63 KGLD 210529
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA SINCE MOST SHOWERS WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY.
HOWEVER SOME DYNAMICS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN FA TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON NIL POPS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE FA AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ADEQUATE FOR
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. PRECIPITATION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...COOLING THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS DISCUSSIONS.
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT
15-25KT WINDS AFTER 13Z INCREASING TO 25-35KTS AFTER 17Z. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS BACK DOWN TO
15-25KTS AFTER 02Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
000
FXUS63 KGLD 210007
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
607 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA SINCE MOST SHOWERS WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY.
HOWEVER SOME DYNAMICS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN FA TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON NIL POPS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE FA AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ADEQUATE FOR
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. PRECIPITATION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...COOLING THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS DISCUSSIONS.
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z AT MCK AS A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 02Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 14Z
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
000
FXUS63 KGLD 202001
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA SINCE MOST SHOWERS WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY.
HOWEVER SOME DYNAMICS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN FA TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON NIL POPS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE FA AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ADEQUATE FOR
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. PRECIPITATION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...COOLING THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS DISCUSSIONS.
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH SHOWERS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WIND WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201911
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. PRECIPITATION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...COOLING THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS DISCUSSIONS.
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH SHOWERS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WIND WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201717
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1117 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION WILL NOT
OCCUR BELOW 600 MB BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER 18Z. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT A MASSIVE WARM/UP.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AS DAKOTA LOW EJECTS EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AS SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AS AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND BEGINS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER.
SURFACE THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FAVOR NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING/SHARPENING OF LEE SIDE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THESE WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA AND NECESSITATE DAILY
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVEN BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH SHOWERS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WIND WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...FS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201133
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION WILL NOT
OCCUR BELOW 600 MB BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER 18Z. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT A MASSIVE WARM/UP.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AS DAKOTA LOW EJECTS EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AS SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AS AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND BEGINS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER.
SURFACE THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FAVOR NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING/SHARPENING OF LEE SIDE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THESE WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA AND NECESSITATE DAILY
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVEN BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM KAKO TO KMCK. THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED
IN THE SAME LOCATION FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS...SO WILL NOT IMPACT
KGLD. MENTIONED SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KMCK...BUT KEPT CEILINGS
AROUND 8000 FEET WITH A LOWER SCATTERED DECK. AFTER 15Z...THE AIR
MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. AGAIN...ONLY MENTIONED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TAF SITES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWERS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...MENTZER
000
FXUS63 KGLD 200827
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION WILL NOT
OCCUR BELOW 600 MB BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER 18Z. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT A MASSIVE WARM/UP.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AS DAKOTA LOW EJECTS EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AS SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AS AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND BEGINS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER.
SURFACE THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FAVOR NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING/SHARPENING OF LEE SIDE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THESE WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA AND NECESSITATE DAILY
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVEN BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULDNT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT IF A MODERATE RAIN SHOWER MOVES OVER KMCK.
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA ROTATING SOUTH
ALONG WESTERN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND SHOULD MOVE OVER
KMCK THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WITHIN VICINITY
OF KGLD. CURRENT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO
LIMITED MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW CENTER AND STRONGER GRADIENT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT AT KGLD WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE
WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...DR
000
FXUS63 KGLD 200531
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH...MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS
FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULDNT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT IF A MODERATE RAIN SHOWER MOVES OVER KMCK.
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA ROTATING SOUTH
ALONG WESTERN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND SHOULD MOVE OVER
KMCK THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WITHIN VICINITY
OF KGLD. CURRENT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO
LIMITED MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW CENTER AND STRONGER GRADIENT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT AT KGLD WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE
WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
000
FXUS63 KGLD 192351
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
551 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH...MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS
FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONDITIONS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IF A
TERMINAL IS IMPACTED BY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS KGLD
TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 35KT POSSIBLE BASED ON
RADAR/UPSTREAM OBS. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF SURFACE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHORTWAVE GUIDANCE INDICATING BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTH OVER BOTH
TERMINALS...SO I INCLUDED ADDITIONAL VCSH GROUP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO COVER THIS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AFTER 12Z TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS.
PREVAILING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 10K BY
03Z...AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 30KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191925
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
125 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH...MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS
FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EITHER KGLD OR KMCK
COULD SEE A BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTION FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191744
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AROUND THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENSEMBLE DATA AND OPERATIONAL MODELS POINTING TO
NORTHERN CWA HAVING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STILL NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF NEAR SFC FORCING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION COVERAGE SO HAVE LEFT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR
NOW. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS FOR
THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EITHER KGLD OR KMCK
COULD SEE A BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTION FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JRM/MCK
AVIATION...024
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191133
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY
LOCATED UPSTREAM NEAR WASHINGTON. AT THE SFC...LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR
TRIBUNE WITH COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME
AND WERE LIFTING TO THE NORTH.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF
COLD FRONT AND WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT STAYING SOME WHAT
CONSTANT IN ADDITION TO LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS THINK POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE THE SFC WILL REMAIN LOW. DIV Q FIELDS INDICATE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NORTH TODAY...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH LITTLE CINH SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO REDEVELOP TODAY EVEN WITH MODEST SFC HEATING. WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED AND LACK OF STRONG NEAR SFC FORCING MECHANISM NOT SURE I
WANT TO GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THINK
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AND CLOUD COVER WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA...AM HESITANT TO
GO TOO WARM FOR TEMPS TODAY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SKIES WILL
CLOUD UP IN SEVERAL AREAS ONCE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S. WAS LEANING
TOWARDS LOWERING TEMPS TOWARDS THESE VALUES BUT WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY
AROUND 60 AM HESITANT TO GO WITH SUCH A SMALL DIURNAL CURVE ATTM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AROUND THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENSEMBLE DATA AND OPERATIONAL MODELS POINTING TO
NORTHERN CWA HAVING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STILL NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF NEAR SFC FORCING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION COVERAGE SO HAVE LEFT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR
NOW. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS FOR
THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SMALL BOW ECHO WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE MCK TERMINAL PRIOR TO 14Z. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF STORM
WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS MUCAPES SUGGEST
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THINK THE THREAT OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IS HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THESE
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BUT COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED/TRANSIENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/MCK
AVIATION...JRM
000
FXUS63 KGLD 190836
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY
LOCATED UPSTREAM NEAR WASHINGTON. AT THE SFC...LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR
TRIBUNE WITH COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME
AND WERE LIFTING TO THE NORTH.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF
COLD FRONT AND WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT STAYING SOME WHAT
CONSTANT IN ADDITION TO LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS THINK POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE THE SFC WILL REMAIN LOW. DIV Q FIELDS INDICATE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NORTH TODAY...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH LITTLE CINH SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO REDEVELOP TODAY EVEN WITH MODEST SFC HEATING. WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED AND LACK OF STRONG NEAR SFC FORCING MECHANISM NOT SURE I
WANT TO GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THINK
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AND CLOUD COVER WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA...AM HESITANT TO
GO TOO WARM FOR TEMPS TODAY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SKIES WILL
CLOUD UP IN SEVERAL AREAS ONCE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S. WAS LEANING
TOWARDS LOWERING TEMPS TOWARDS THESE VALUES BUT WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY
AROUND 60 AM HESITANT TO GO WITH SUCH A SMALL DIURNAL CURVE ATTM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AROUND THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENSEMBLE DATA AND OPERATIONAL MODELS POINTING TO
NORTHERN CWA HAVING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STILL NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF NEAR SFC FORCING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION COVERAGE SO HAVE LEFT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR
NOW. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS FOR
THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED BEHIND COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
COLORADO...AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
EAST WITHIN VICINITY OF KGLD BY 08Z. COULDNT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS AT KCMK...HOWEVER WITH FRONT POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN
BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINAL AND INSTABILITY DECREASING AFTER
09Z...THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER. DECIDED TO ONLY INCLUDE
MENTION OF VCTS AT KGLD FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP
WITH UPPER LOW CENTER SHIFTING EAST MIDDAY SUNDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.
OTHER PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SUPPORTING PATCHY/LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN VICINITY OF KMCK THROUGH 14Z. WASNT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO LOWER THAN MVFR CIG/VIS FOR KMCK DURING THIS
ISSUANCE. PROGRESSION OF FRONT/THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPACT ON WHETHER THIS FOG DEVELOPS OR NOT AT KMCK.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE MIDWEST
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FILTER INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 500 MB JET
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE TRI STATE AREA. MID AND LOW LEVEL
JET SPEEDS ARE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. JET SPEEDS AT THE
UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO PICK UP SPEED FOR FRIDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
TO THE EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROPAGATES ALONG THE ROCKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THE
UPPER LEVELS INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE TROUGH STALLS OUT TO THE WEST AS THE NEW
UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM STAGNATES...KEEPING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN GFS AND ECMWF
AROUND THE KS/OK AREA....WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS CHANGING DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHERLY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF
AND GFS DIFFER FOR THE AVAILABILITY OF CAPE...WITH GFS UP TO 700 AND
ECMWF UP TO 1600 J/KG FOR FRIDAY. THETA E VALUES OF 340 K AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SHOW AMPLE MOSITURE AT THE
SURFACE FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY...BRINGING MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. LIFTED INDICIES BETWEEN
-2 AND -6 CELCIUS...AND K INDEX VALUES AROUND 35 CELCIUS ALSO
INDICATE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
OVER MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY. INCREASED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/MCK
AVIATION...DR
000
FXUS63 KGLD 182327
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
DRY LINE FAINTLY DETECTABLE ON KGLD RADAR AT 1745Z FROM NEAR ST
FRANCIS SOUTHWEST TO BURLINGTON AND THEN SOUTH TOWARDS CHEYENNE
WELLS. IT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MIXING EAST INTO KANSAS AND SHOULD
BE THE INITIATING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND STORMS WILL
QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS BEST FURTHER EAST FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT EVEN NEAR THE DRY
LINE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE AREA BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE ON SUNDAY...IN
FACT IN WESTERN AREAS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
FORECAST...BUT CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO PRIMARILY IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH HAIL UP TO THE
QUARTER SIZE THE MAIN THREAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD PROVIDING FOR BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND LIFT INCREASE AS A VORT
MAX OR SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN WHATS LOOKS LIKE A
MONSOON SEASON PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF UPPER LOW ALONG DRY LINE
GENERALLY EAST OF KGLD TERMINAL WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTH
WITHIN VICINITY OF KMCK. THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD IS
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO KMCK....THOUGH COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW
STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SHOULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISH AFTER 08Z...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGLD...WITH MVFR (OR LOWER)
POSSIBLE AT KMCK IF A HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS OVER THE
TERMINAL. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMCK
AS A RESULT OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC AS A RESULT OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
KGLD...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK. STRONGEST WINDS AT KMCK SHOULD
BE AROUND 30KT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS...HOWEVER STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 50 KT+ WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE ADDING THESE MORE EXTREME VALUES TO
THE TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
000
FXUS63 KGLD 181905
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
105 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
DRY LINE FAINTLY DETECTABLE ON KGLD RADAR AT 1745Z FROM NEAR ST
FRANCIS SOUTHWEST TO BURLINGTON AND THEN SOUTH TOWARDS CHEYENNE
WELLS. IT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MIXING EAST INTO KANSAS AND SHOULD
BE THE INITIATING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND STORMS WILL
QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS BEST FURTHER EAST FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT EVEN NEAR THE DRY
LINE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE AREA BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE ON SUNDAY...IN
FACT IN WESTERN AREAS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
FORECAST...BUT CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO PRIMARILY IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH HAIL UP TO THE
QUARTER SIZE THE MAIN THREAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD PROVIDING FOR BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND LIFT INCREASE AS A VORT
MAX OR SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN WHATS LOOKS LIKE A
MONSOON SEASON PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER THAT TIME WITH
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
000
FXUS63 KGLD 181756
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1156 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
DRY LINE FAINTLY DETECTABLE ON KGLD RADAR AT 1745Z FROM NEAR ST
FRANCIS SOUTHWEST TO BURLINGTON AND THEN SOUTH TOWARDS CHEYENNE
WELLS. IT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MIXING EAST INTO KANSAS AND SHOULD
BE THE INITIATING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND STORMS WILL
QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS BEST FURTHER EAST FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT EVEN NEAR THE DRY
LINE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE AREA BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE ON SUNDAY...IN
FACT IN WESTERN AREAS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
FORECAST...BUT CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO PRIMARILY IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH HAIL UP TO THE
QUARTER SIZE THE MAIN THREAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD CAN BEST BE DESCRIBED AS UNSETTLED AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH TROUGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS
SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HOW THIS DEVELOPS...AN
OVERALL COOLER PATTERN IS LIKELY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE HEATING
NEEDED ON SUNDAY TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN
NO CLEAR NEAR SFC FORCING MECHANISM...AM HESITANT TO INCREASE POPS
OUTSIDE OF 30-50 RANGE AND HAVE NUDGED GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVENT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF LARGE
SCALE TROUGH AND MOVE INTO AREA ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE HERE AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MAINLY TO COOL TEMPS A
BIT.
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BE PRESENT AT 500 MB FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PLAINS REGION. HIGHER
500MB JET MAXES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. 700MB SHOWS STRONGER JET MAXES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND 850MB
HAS SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER JET SPEEDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS THE STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME UPLIFT FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BECOMES ELONGATED AS THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL
FLOW. THE ENSUING TROUGH WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER JET SPEEDS STAYING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEFLECTS
THE JET STREAM AROUND THE AREA. 850MB THETA E VALUES REMAIN
MODERATE BETWEEN 310 AND 315 K AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 0.5
AND 0.8 SHOULD BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850MB
SHOULD MOISTEN WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SITUATE OVER IOWA WEDNESDAY...BUT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION COULD
AFFECT THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LACK OF
CAPE...UNSTABLE LIFTED INDEX TEMPERATURES...AND LOW TT INDEX
DEMONSTRATES LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT MORE WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK
AS WELL AS MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE AREA COULD
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST FOR TUESDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
FOR SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER THAT TIME WITH
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JRM/MCK
AVIATION...024
000
FXUS63 KGLD 181153
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
03Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. 00Z SOUNDINGS
INDICATED DEEPENING MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WITH DDC INDICATING MIXING
RATIOS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 10.5 UP TO 825 MB. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG DRYING WAS NOTED BELOW H6 WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED AT
H7. AT THE SFC...TROUGH WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KDNR AND KAKO WITH
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN 60S IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY 4Z.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY VARIOUS PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK.
TODAY-SUNDAY...WITH OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP/GOOD QUALITY
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY...CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH.
WHILE THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
REACHING ITS STRONGEST BTWN 00 AND 06Z. IN THE SMALLER SCALE
THOUGH...NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS OPERATIONAL AND CU
RESOLVING MODELS WITH RESPECT TO POSITION OF DRYLINE/OTHER AREAS OF
NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE. NAM AND HIGH RES CORES HOLD DRYLINE FARTHER
WEST THAN OTHER MODELS...SUGGESTING INITIATION ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER. OTHER MODELS...MOST NOTABLY THE GFS...PLACE DRYLINE MUCH
FURTHER EAST WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG A TRENTON TO RUSSEL
SPRINGS LINE. ALTHOUGH NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST EXTREME WITH ITS
POSITION...WITH EXPECTED POSITION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF AREA EXPECT PRESSURE FALLS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD TEND TO HOLD DRYLINE TO THE WEST
UNLESS AFTERNOON MIXING CAN OVERWHELM IT. CINH SHOULD BE STRONG
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG INVERSION EXPECTED AROUND H75
SO THINK DELAYING POPS SLIGHTLY UNTIL PEAK HEATING IS IN ORDER.
WITH STORMS INITIATING BTWN 21 AND 00Z IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
INSTABILITY (ML CAPES >3000 J/KG) DEEP LAYER AROUND 40 KTS AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS/HODOGRAPHS INCREASING SEE NO REASON WHY ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER/A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL NOT DEVELOP WITH A SIZABLE THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH STRONG CAP SHOULD TEND TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED BOTH
DEEP AND 0-3 KM SHEAR CLOSER TO PARALLEL TO THE EXPECTED FORCING AS
OPPOSED TO PERPENDICULAR WHICH MAY FAVOR STORMS BECOMING LINEAR IN
THE EVENING. AFTER INITIAL ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...LARGE
SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW STATIC
STABILITY WILL RESULT IN A FEW STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH 12Z/
NOT ONLY DOES DRYLINE POSITION PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...BUT GIVEN AIR MASS JUST TO THE WEST THINK DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL GREATLY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WITH A FEW DATA SETS INDICATING
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS RESULTING IN NEARLY A
40F DIFFERENCE ACROSS DRYLINE. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST
WHICH BRINGS CONCERNS ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. FOR NOW...MOST
LIKELY AREA WOULD BE THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LATEST FUEL DATA IN EASTERN COLORADO INDICATES FUELS ARE NOT
CRITICAL AND AM DOUBTFUL CONDITIONS WILL LAST 3 HOURS IN ADJACENT
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD CAN BEST BE DESCRIBED AS UNSETTLED AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH TROUGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS
SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HOW THIS DEVELOPS...AN
OVERALL COOLER PATTERN IS LIKELY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE HEATING
NEEDED ON SUNDAY TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN
NO CLEAR NEAR SFC FORCING MECHANISM...AM HESITANT TO INCREASE POPS
OUTSIDE OF 30-50 RANGE AND HAVE NUDGED GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVENT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF LARGE
SCALE TROUGH AND MOVE INTO AREA ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE HERE AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MAINLY TO COOL TEMPS A
BIT.
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BE PRESENT AT 500 MB FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PLAINS REGION. HIGHER
500MB JET MAXES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI STATE
AREA. 700MB SHOWS STRONGER JET MAXES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND 850MB
HAS SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER JET SPEEDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS THE STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME UPLIFT FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BECOMES ELONGATED AS THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL
FLOW. THE ENSUING TROUGH WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER JET SPEEDS STAYING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEFLECTS
THE JET STREAM AROUND THE AREA. 850MB THETA E VALUES REMAIN
MODERATE BETWEEN 310 AND 315 K AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 0.5
AND 0.8 SHOULD BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850MB
SHOULD MOISTEN WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SITUATE OVER IOWA WEDNESDAY...BUT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION COULD
AFFECT THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LACK OF
CAPE...UNSTABLE LIFTED INDEX TEMPERATURES...AND LOW TT INDEX
DEMONSTRATES LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT MORE WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK
AS WELL AS MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE AREA COULD
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST FOR TUESDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
FOR SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AS SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 19Z
BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG SLOWLY ADVANCING DRY LINE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WITH SO WILL
CONTINUE A GENERAL VCTS UNTIL POSITION BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR LOW CIGS TONIGHT AFTER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA BUT WITH THUNDERSTORMS PLAYING A
LARGE ROLE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/MCK
AVIATION...JRM
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