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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING
THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECWMF QUITE A BIT COOLER SO
WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260514
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S.  SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 260514
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S.  SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 252359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S.  SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

MCK WILL START OUT VFR AND TRANSITION TO IFR AFTER 09Z WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT A DROP TO
LIFR AND OCCASIONALLY VLIFR BETWEEN ABOUT 11Z-14Z WITH A QUICK
TRANSITION BACK TO VFR BY 15Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 252008
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S.  SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251853
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251853
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS MONDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND UKMET...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITION/STRENGTH. THE
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM
WITH SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY DAY. MODELS WERE NOT QUITE
WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY WITH THE RECORD WARMTH. THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE THE COOLEST WITH THE NWP THE WARMEST
AND MUCH WARMER THAN THEM. 850 MB CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT
SUPPORTS HAVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING A RECORD IS
BURLINGTON. THAT RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1963.

FOR TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF A LARGE FOG/STRATUS SHIELD. THE PATCHY FOG THAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE AND KEPT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED SINCE FOG FORMATION HAS A BAD HABIT OF BEING FURTHER
WEST THAN DEPICTED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE DAY BUT
TEND TO BE LIGHT AND FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. SO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHAPING UP. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALSO START
BECOMING FAVORABLE AS WELL. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL PROBABLY END UP JUST BEING CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
MAIN JET FURTHER SOUTH AND A SECONDARY JET NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERN JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP A COUPLED
JET THAT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH FAVORABLE THETA LAPSE RATES REMAINS AROUND
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MODEL OUTPUT. SO AS DAY SHIFT ASSESSED YESTERDAY...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LIFT.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB IS LACKING. EVEN
WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD ENOUGH
THAT BELIEVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH. LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS DEPICTION OF THIS AND BASED ON THE
REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION...WILL LEAVE THE POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE DAY INTO EVENING ALONE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE SPEEDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID
RAMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. NEW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
MUCH COOLER...AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES...FORECAST THAT IS IN
THERE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HOW FAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET. NAM HOLDS ONTO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
06Z WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATING A STABLE AIR MASS AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS A LITTLE MORE. DID NOT GO AS COLD
AS I COULD HAVE DUE TO A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MY
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT THIS SEASON WITH MAYBE A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FROST MENTION AND ADJUST THE AREA BASED ON
THE NEW LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251114
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS MONDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND UKMET...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITION/STRENGTH. THE
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM
WITH SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY DAY. MODELS WERE NOT QUITE
WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY WITH THE RECORD WARMTH. THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE THE COOLEST WITH THE NWP THE WARMEST
AND MUCH WARMER THAN THEM. 850 MB CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT
SUPPORTS HAVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING A RECORD IS
BURLINGTON. THAT RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1963.

FOR TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF A LARGE FOG/STRATUS SHIELD. THE PATCHY FOG THAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE AND KEPT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED SINCE FOG FORMATION HAS A BAD HABIT OF BEING FURTHER
WEST THAN DEPICTED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE DAY BUT
TEND TO BE LIGHT AND FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. SO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHAPING UP. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALSO START
BECOMING FAVORABLE AS WELL. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL PROBABLY END UP JUST BEING CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
MAIN JET FURTHER SOUTH AND A SECONDARY JET NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERN JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP A COUPLED
JET THAT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH FAVORABLE THETA LAPSE RATES REMAINS AROUND
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MODEL OUTPUT. SO AS DAY SHIFT ASSESSED YESTERDAY...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LIFT.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB IS LACKING. EVEN
WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD ENOUGH
THAT BELIEVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH. LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS DEPICTION OF THIS AND BASED ON THE
REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION...WILL LEAVE THE POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE DAY INTO EVENING ALONE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE SPEEDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID
RAMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. NEW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
MUCH COOLER...AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES...FORECAST THAT IS IN
THERE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HOW FAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET. NAM HOLDS ONTO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
06Z WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATING A STABLE AIR MASS AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS A LITTLE MORE. DID NOT GO AS COLD
AS I COULD HAVE DUE TO A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MY
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT THIS SEASON WITH MAYBE A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FROST MENTION AND ADJUST THE AREA BASED ON
THE NEW LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT KGLD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
KMCK VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
AFTER 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT THE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME EVEN LOWER. LATER
FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251114
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS MONDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND UKMET...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITION/STRENGTH. THE
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM
WITH SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY DAY. MODELS WERE NOT QUITE
WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY WITH THE RECORD WARMTH. THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE THE COOLEST WITH THE NWP THE WARMEST
AND MUCH WARMER THAN THEM. 850 MB CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT
SUPPORTS HAVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING A RECORD IS
BURLINGTON. THAT RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1963.

FOR TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF A LARGE FOG/STRATUS SHIELD. THE PATCHY FOG THAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE AND KEPT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED SINCE FOG FORMATION HAS A BAD HABIT OF BEING FURTHER
WEST THAN DEPICTED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE DAY BUT
TEND TO BE LIGHT AND FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. SO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHAPING UP. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALSO START
BECOMING FAVORABLE AS WELL. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL PROBABLY END UP JUST BEING CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
MAIN JET FURTHER SOUTH AND A SECONDARY JET NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERN JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP A COUPLED
JET THAT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH FAVORABLE THETA LAPSE RATES REMAINS AROUND
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MODEL OUTPUT. SO AS DAY SHIFT ASSESSED YESTERDAY...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LIFT.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB IS LACKING. EVEN
WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD ENOUGH
THAT BELIEVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH. LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS DEPICTION OF THIS AND BASED ON THE
REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION...WILL LEAVE THE POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE DAY INTO EVENING ALONE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE SPEEDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID
RAMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. NEW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
MUCH COOLER...AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES...FORECAST THAT IS IN
THERE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HOW FAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET. NAM HOLDS ONTO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
06Z WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATING A STABLE AIR MASS AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS A LITTLE MORE. DID NOT GO AS COLD
AS I COULD HAVE DUE TO A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MY
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT THIS SEASON WITH MAYBE A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FROST MENTION AND ADJUST THE AREA BASED ON
THE NEW LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT KGLD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
KMCK VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
AFTER 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT THE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME EVEN LOWER. LATER
FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...BULLER





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250826
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS MONDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND UKMET...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITION/STRENGTH. THE
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM
WITH SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY DAY. MODELS WERE NOT QUITE
WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY WITH THE RECORD WARMTH. THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE THE COOLEST WITH THE NWP THE WARMEST
AND MUCH WARMER THAN THEM. 850 MB CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT
SUPPORTS HAVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING A RECORD IS
BURLINGTON. THAT RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1963.

FOR TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF A LARGE FOG/STRATUS SHIELD. THE PATCHY FOG THAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE AND KEPT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED SINCE FOG FORMATION HAS A BAD HABIT OF BEING FURTHER
WEST THAN DEPICTED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE DAY BUT
TEND TO BE LIGHT AND FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. SO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHAPING UP. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALSO START
BECOMING FAVORABLE AS WELL. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL PROBABLY END UP JUST BEING CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
MAIN JET FURTHER SOUTH AND A SECONDARY JET NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERN JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP A COUPLED
JET THAT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH FAVORABLE THETA LAPSE RATES REMAINS AROUND
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MODEL OUTPUT. SO AS DAY SHIFT ASSESSED YESTERDAY...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LIFT.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB IS LACKING. EVEN
WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD ENOUGH
THAT BELIEVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH. LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS DEPICTION OF THIS AND BASED ON THE
REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION...WILL LEAVE THE POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE DAY INTO EVENING ALONE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE SPEEDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID
RAMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. NEW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
MUCH COOLER...AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES...FORECAST THAT IS IN
THERE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HOW FAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET. NAM HOLDS ONTO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
06Z WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATING A STABLE AIR MASS AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS A LITTLE MORE. DID NOT GO AS COLD
AS I COULD HAVE DUE TO A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MY
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT THIS SEASON WITH MAYBE A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FROST MENTION AND ADJUST THE AREA BASED ON
THE NEW LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
10-15KTS BY 19Z WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
GLD FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WINDS AFTER 23Z AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 250505
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.

SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.

PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
10-15KTS BY 19Z WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
GLD FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WINDS AFTER 23Z AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 242349
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.

SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.

PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z SATURDAY MORNING. BY 19Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10-15KTS AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 242018
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.

SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.

PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 241953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN AT
THE FOLLOWING LOCATION SATURDAY OCTOBER 25:

BURLINGTON CO....84 IN 1963

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99/JJM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 241953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN AT
THE FOLLOWING LOCATION SATURDAY OCTOBER 25:

BURLINGTON CO....84 IN 1963

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99/JJM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 241729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM NEARLY 10F FROM THURSDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTH TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z MODEL RUNS AND IN FACT
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER COMPARED TO TODAYS
(FRIDAYS) VALUES. THIS DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL SHOOT FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPTION BEING FLAGLER AREA WHERE MID 70S EXPECTED.
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY REACHES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE COLORADO WESTERN SLOPE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH FAST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COMING INTO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALBEIT LOW
LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND LIMITED TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S REST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S
EXCEPT NEAR 50 AT HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE TODAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1952

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1963

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 240830
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM NEARLY 10F FROM THURSDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTH TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z MODEL RUNS AND IN FACT
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER COMPARED TO TODAYS
(FRIDAYS) VALUES. THIS DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL SHOOT FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPTION BEING FLAGLER AREA WHERE MID 70S EXPECTED.
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY REACHES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE COLORADO WESTERN SLOPE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH FAST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COMING INTO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALBEIT LOW
LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND LIMITED TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S REST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S
EXCEPT NEAR 50 AT HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 07KTS BY 17Z
THEN LGT/VRB FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 20Z. BY 23Z LIGHT
EAST WIND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 03Z AT SPEEDS AROUND 05KTS THEN
SOUTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH 12Z AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WIND AROUND 07KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 08KTS BY 17Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z. FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
VRB WINDS AROUND 03KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE TODAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1952

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1963

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 240724
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
124 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MILD PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND ANOTHER MORE
ELONGATED RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW DUE TO AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO
850MB TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S C...APPROXIMATELY TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY...BECOMING SUNNY AND MILD. MORNING FOG/STRATUS HELD ON MUCH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...THROUGH NOON CDT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. WITH THE EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED
ON OBSERVED TEMP TRENDS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND MILD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TO OUT OF THE WEST. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SO MUCH MORE INTENSE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THIS MORNING DECIDED TO INCLUDE A BIT OF
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WHERE STRATUS STILL PERSISTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
FACT THAT THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR...BUT
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT.

TOMORROW...FRIDAY...SUNNY WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT. TEMPS ARE MAIN
CONCERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
WILL BE NEAR A NUMBER OF RECORD HIGHS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/ AND
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TO FALL JUST BELOW 12KT THRESHOLD WHILE SLIGHTLY VEERING
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY 09Z. SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND 17Z
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 07KTS THEN LGT/VRB FOR A
FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 20Z. BY 23Z LIGHT EAST WIND VEERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 03Z AT SPEEDS AROUND 05KTS.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MVFR VIS
FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 10Z AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. AFTER 10Z WINDS BECOME WEST AROUND 07KTS PUSHING
MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND ENDING MVFR THREAT. SFC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 17Z SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 08KTS.
FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD VRB WINDS AROUND 03KTS
EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 240530
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MILD PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND ANOTHER MORE
ELONGATED RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW DUE TO AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO
850MB TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S C...APPROXIMATELY TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY...BECOMING SUNNY AND MILD. MORNING FOG/STRATUS HELD ON MUCH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...THROUGH NOON CDT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. WITH THE EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED
ON OBSERVED TEMP TRENDS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND MILD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TO OUT OF THE WEST. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SO MUCH MORE INTENSE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THIS MORNING DECIDED TO INCLUDE A BIT OF
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WHERE STRATUS STILL PERSISTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
FACT THAT THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR...BUT
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT.

TOMORROW...FRIDAY...SUNNY WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT. TEMPS ARE MAIN
CONCERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
WILL BE NEAR A NUMBER OF RECORD HIGHS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/ AND
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 24HR AGO ON
EVOLUTION/TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FROPA SUN NIGHT-MONDAY
NIGHT. FAVORING A SLOWER PROGRESSION...MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER ON
HIGHS SUN AND SLOWER ON TIMING OF PRECIP. ECMWF/GFS NOW SHOWING THIS
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED OPEN WAVE...WHICH LIMITS WINDOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.
LIFT IS DECENT...SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA. I MADE
LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 20/30 POPS MONDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKER CAA COMPARED TO
24HR AGO...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING MONDAY. I KEPT PATCHY
FROST MENTION MONDAY NIGHT AND ADDED MENTION TUESDAY NIGHT (WHEN
CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT). WHILE 30-36F
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE A HARD FREEZE SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE WEST WITH W-NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAXES WITHIN THE FLOW (WITH LARGE
VARIANCE BETWEEN MODELS/ENSEMBLES). OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT GENERALLY
FOR PRECIP...SO DRY FORECAST FROM MODEL CONSENSUS WAS REASONABLE.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW
REINFORCING COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TO FALL JUST BELOW 12KT THRESHOLD WHILE SLIGHTLY VEERING
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY 09Z. SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND 17Z
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 07KTS THEN LGT/VRB FOR A
FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 20Z. BY 23Z LIGHT EAST WIND VEERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 03Z AT SPEEDS AROUND 05KTS.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MVFR VIS
FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 10Z AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. AFTER 10Z WINDS BECOME WEST AROUND 07KTS PUSHING
MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND ENDING MVFR THREAT. SFC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 17Z SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 08KTS.
FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD VRB WINDS AROUND 03KTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 225 MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:

GOODLAND KS.....88 IN 1915
COLBY KS........87 IN 2003
HILL CITY KS....89 IN 1921
BURLINGTON CO...84 IN 1952
YUMA CO.........87 IN 2003
MCCOOK NE.......88 IN 1927

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...JJM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 232342
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MILD PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND ANOTHER MORE
ELONGATED RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW DUE TO AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO
850MB TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S C...APPROXIMATELY TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY...BECOMING SUNNY AND MILD. MORNING FOG/STRATUS HELD ON MUCH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...THROUGH NOON CDT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. WITH THE EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED
ON OBSERVED TEMP TRENDS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND MILD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TO OUT OF THE WEST. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SO MUCH MORE INTENSE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THIS MORNING DECIDED TO INCLUDE A BIT OF
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WHERE STRATUS STILL PERSISTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
FACT THAT THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR...BUT
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT.

TOMORROW...FRIDAY...SUNNY WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT. TEMPS ARE MAIN
CONCERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
WILL BE NEAR A NUMBER OF RECORD HIGHS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/ AND
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 24HR AGO ON
EVOLUTION/TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FROPA SUN NIGHT-MONDAY
NIGHT. FAVORING A SLOWER PROGRESSION...MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER ON
HIGHS SUN AND SLOWER ON TIMING OF PRECIP. ECMWF/GFS NOW SHOWING THIS
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED OPEN WAVE...WHICH LIMITS WINDOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.
LIFT IS DECENT...SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA. I MADE
LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 20/30 POPS MONDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKER CAA COMPARED TO
24HR AGO...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING MONDAY. I KEPT PATCHY
FROST MENTION MONDAY NIGHT AND ADDED MENTION TUESDAY NIGHT (WHEN
CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT). WHILE 30-36F
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE A HARD FREEZE SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE WEST WITH W-NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAXES WITHIN THE FLOW (WITH LARGE
VARIANCE BETWEEN MODELS/ENSEMBLES). OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT GENERALLY
FOR PRECIP...SO DRY FORECAST FROM MODEL CONSENSUS WAS REASONABLE.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW
REINFORCING COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKY COVER WILL VARY BETWEEN CLEAR AND SCATTERED AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 225 MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:

GOODLAND KS.....88 IN 1915
COLBY KS........87 IN 2003
HILL CITY KS....89 IN 1921
BURLINGTON CO...84 IN 1952
YUMA CO.........87 IN 2003
MCCOOK NE.......88 IN 1927

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART
CLIMATE...JJM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 232026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MILD PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND ANOTHER MORE
ELONGATED RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW DUE TO AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO
850MB TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S C...APPROXIMATELY TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY...BECOMING SUNNY AND MILD. MORNING FOG/STRATUS HELD ON MUCH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...THROUGH NOON CDT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. WITH THE EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED
ON OBSERVED TEMP TRENDS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND MILD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TO OUT OF THE WEST. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SO MUCH MORE INTENSE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THIS MORNING DECIDED TO INCLUDE A BIT OF
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WHERE STRATUS STILL PERSISTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
FACT THAT THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR...BUT
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT.

TOMORROW...FRIDAY...SUNNY WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT. TEMPS ARE MAIN
CONCERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
WILL BE NEAR A NUMBER OF RECORD HIGHS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/ AND
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 24HR AGO ON
EVOLUTION/TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FROPA SUN NIGHT-MONDAY
NIGHT. FAVORING A SLOWER PROGRESSION...MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER ON
HIGHS SUN AND SLOWER ON TIMING OF PRECIP. ECMWF/GFS NOW SHOWING THIS
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED OPEN WAVE...WHICH LIMITS WINDOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.
LIFT IS DECENT...SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA. I MADE
LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 20/30 POPS MONDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKER CAA COMPARED TO
24HR AGO...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING MONDAY. I KEPT PATCHY
FROST MENTION MONDAY NIGHT AND ADDED MENTION TUESDAY NIGHT (WHEN
CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT). WHILE 30-36F
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE A HARD FREEZE SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE WEST WITH W-NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAXES WITHIN THE FLOW (WITH LARGE
VARIANCE BETWEEN MODELS/ENSEMBLES). OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT GENERALLY
FOR PRECIP...SO DRY FORECAST FROM MODEL CONSENSUS WAS REASONABLE.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW
REINFORCING COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK.
CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS /15-20KFT AGL/ THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. AT THIS POINT
FOG/STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...BUT GIVEN
PERSISTENCE OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL AIRMASS FROM THIS MORNING TO TOMORROW MORNING ANOTHER
FOG/STRATUS EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER HAVE LEANED
AGAINST INCLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LITTLE
SUPPORTING GUIDANCE AND THINKING THAT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG/STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 225 MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:

GOODLAND KS.....88 IN 1915
COLBY KS........87 IN 2003
HILL CITY KS....89 IN 1921
BURLINGTON CO...84 IN 1952
YUMA CO.........87 IN 2003
MCCOOK NE.......88 IN 1927


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...JJM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 231735
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE WEST AND IS
NOW FURTHER WEST THAN ANY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.
SO EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.

WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.

AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.

SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.

MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK.
CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS /15-20KFT AGL/ THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. AT THIS POINT
FOG/STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...BUT GIVEN
PERSISTENCEOF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL AIRMASS FROM THIS MORNING TO TOMORROW MORNING ANOTHER
FOG/STRATUS EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER HAVE LEANED
AGAINST INCLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LITTLE
SUPPORTING GUIDANCE AND THINKING THAT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG/STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:

BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ003-004-
     014>016-028-029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 231244
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE WEST AND IS
NOW FURTHER WEST THAN ANY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.
SO EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.

WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.

AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.

SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.

MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS JUST EAST OR ON TOP OF THE TERMINAL FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
OVER THE TERMINAL REDEVELOPS DESPITE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10KTS.
LIGHT WEST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FROM 04Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:

BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
     014>016-028-029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 230900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.

WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.

AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.

SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.

MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS JUST EAST OR ON TOP OF THE TERMINAL FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
OVER THE TERMINAL REDEVELOPS DESPITE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10KTS.
LIGHT WEST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FROM 04Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:

BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003

&&

$$

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99





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