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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240146
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
746 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. WEST OF THE STORMS A COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS ARE GUSTING
40 TO ALMOST 50 MPH AND BRINGING IN BLOWING DUST. VISIBILITIES ARE
DROPPING TO 6 MILES IN SOME LOCATIONS. ANTICIPATE THE SEVERE
WEATHER TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE STRONG WINDS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING A PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
RAPID PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE.

INCREASED PRECIP. CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AS A BAND OF 700-300MB
FRONTOGENESIS FOLLOWS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO HAVE CHANCES
DECLINING ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP. SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO APPARENT
ON THE WSR-88D. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DRY LINE PUSH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WITH A
BOUNDARY FURTHER EAST WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/JG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SHEAR HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...SO CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. THREE
HOURLY PRESSURE RISES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SO WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN HALF. A DUST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FURTHER WEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR AS CROPS ARE BEGINNING TO SPROUT IN PREVIOUS
DRY FIELDS. HOWEVER...AIR QUALITY DUST MODEL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE SAKE OF SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP THE DUST
ADVISORY GOING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. MODELS BRING SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z.

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP THURSDAY...SO EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A TROUGH IN THE 4-CORNERS REGION.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO AND
WYOMING.  THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO AND
WYOMING THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL
THROUGH SATURDAY.  SOME DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE FA SATURDAY BUT ONCE
AGAIN MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, WIND
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL SPEEDS AS WELL.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHT AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.

MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.  MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WITH NEAR 50 IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO 80.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE ROCKIES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN FURTHER EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY.  THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LOW
MOVE INTO THE FA. LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES,
SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE WITH SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL END BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH RESULTING NIL POPS. WIND WILL BE A FORECAST CONCERN AS THIS
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE
WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY WITH MID 50S EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHTS WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
BEHIND IT. ANTICIPATE THE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE. DUE TO THE DRY SOIL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE
BLOWING DUST TO DEVELOP AT KGLD BEHIND THE FRONT.

THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FOR KGLD BUT
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ANY STORMS NEAR THE SITE.

MEANWHILE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF KMCK WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD TO KMCK. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SITE. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN BEHIND
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF KMCK BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ079-080.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL








000
FXUS63 KGLD 240015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ABOVE 15 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE WARNED AREA WHERE THE WINDS ARE STRONGER.
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF WERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CLOSER TO 15
PERCENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED TO 20 MPH OR LESS.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR...BELIEVE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS GENERALLY
OVER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH OVER THE NEXT HOUR
BUT BROADER SCALE TREND IS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO IMPROVE SO
WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO APPARENT
ON THE WSR-88D. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DRY LINE PUSH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WITH A
BOUNDARY FURTHER EAST WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/JG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SHEAR HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...SO CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. THREE
HOURLY PRESSURE RISES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SO WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN HALF. A DUST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FURTHER WEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR AS CROPS ARE BEGINNING TO SPROUT IN PREVIOUS
DRY FIELDS. HOWEVER...AIR QUALITY DUST MODEL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE SAKE OF SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP THE DUST
ADVISORY GOING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. MODELS BRING SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z.

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP THURSDAY...SO EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A TROUGH IN THE 4-CORNERS REGION.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO AND
WYOMING.  THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO AND
WYOMING THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL
THROUGH SATURDAY.  SOME DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE FA SATURDAY BUT ONCE
AGAIN MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, WIND
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL SPEEDS AS WELL.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHT AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.

MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.  MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WITH NEAR 50 IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO 80.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE ROCKIES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN FURTHER EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY.  THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LOW
MOVE INTO THE FA. LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES,
SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE WITH SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL END BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH RESULTING NIL POPS. WIND WILL BE A FORECAST CONCERN AS THIS
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE
WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY WITH MID 50S EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHTS WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
BEHIND IT. ANTICIPATE THE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE. DUE TO THE DRY SOIL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE
BLOWING DUST TO DEVELOP AT KGLD BEHIND THE FRONT.

THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FOR KGLD BUT
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ANY STORMS NEAR THE SITE.

MEANWHILE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF KMCK WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD TO KMCK. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SITE. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN BEHIND
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF KMCK BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ079-080.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL








000
FXUS63 KGLD 232008
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO APPARENT
ON THE WSR-88D. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DRY LINE PUSH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WITH A
BOUNDARY FURTHER EAST WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/JG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SHEAR HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...SO CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. THREE
HOURLY PRESSURE RISES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SO WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN HALF. A DUST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FURTHER WEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR AS CROPS ARE BEGINNING TO SPROUT IN PREVIOUS
DRY FIELDS. HOWEVER...AIR QUALITY DUST MODEL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE SAKE OF SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP THE DUST
ADVISORY GOING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. MODELS BRING SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z.

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP THURSDAY...SO EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A TROUGH IN THE 4-CORNERS REGION.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO AND
WYOMING.  THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO AND
WYOMING THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL
THROUGH SATURDAY.  SOME DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE FA SATURDAY BUT ONCE
AGAIN MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, WIND
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL SPEEDS AS WELL.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHT AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.

MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.  MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WITH NEAR 50 IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO 80.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE ROCKIES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN FURTHER EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY.  THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LOW
MOVE INTO THE FA. LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES,
SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE WITH SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL END BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH RESULTING NIL POPS. WIND WILL BE A FORECAST CONCERN AS THIS
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE
WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY WITH MID 50S EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHTS WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...BUT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST WITH THE STRONG WINDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY IMPACTS AT THE
SPECIFIC TAF SITES WILL BE MINIMAL.

ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AFTER 03Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ079-080.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...MENTZER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 231942
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
142 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO APPARENT
ON THE WSR-88D. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DRY LINE PUSH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WITH A
BOUNDARY FURTHER EAST WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/JG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SHEAR HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...SO CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. THREE
HOURLY PRESSURE RISES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SO WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN HALF. A DUST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FURTHER WEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR AS CROPS ARE BEGINNING TO SPROUT IN PREVIOUS
DRY FIELDS. HOWEVER...AIR QUALITY DUST MODEL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE SAKE OF SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP THE DUST
ADVISORY GOING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. MODELS BRING SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z.

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP THURSDAY...SO EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS
TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. RESULTING
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KS/CO/NE
BORDERS...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE COLDER
CANADIAN AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING
THE TIME RANGE.

SATURDAY...WARM AND BREEZY WITH CHANCE OF STORMS LATE. IT APPEARS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER BY WAY OF DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TIME ON SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM AIR
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP.
LATE IN THE DAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH BRINGING WITH IT A SHALLOW TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS RESULTING IN ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A GREAT CHANCE FOR THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY...BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE...BUT WITH SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
PRECIP...THOUGH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
THAN FURTHER SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP TO THE MID
30S IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SNOW COULD MIX
WITH THE RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDY. COOLER AND CLOUDY MONDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND AGAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES FALL OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH FREEZING...NOT SURPRISING
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. BOTH DAYS WILL BE WINDY WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN...AND AT THIS POINT BOTH DAYS LOOK LIKE SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
CRITERIA /3HR SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ WHILE MONDAY
HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS /1HR SUSTAINED 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS 58 MPH/
ARE INSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WHILE PRECIP IS FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS /LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR MOST SPOTS/ WHICH
MEANS BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN IF PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...BUT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST WITH THE STRONG WINDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY IMPACTS AT THE
SPECIFIC TAF SITES WILL BE MINIMAL.

ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AFTER 03Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-
     028-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MENTZER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 231713
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WIND SHIFT LINE IS MOVING ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...AND THIS MAY BE THE
BOUNDARY THAT INITATES CONVECTION LATER TODAY. SURFACE TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS STILL MINIMAL...BUT IS INCREASING. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
CURRENTLY IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT MIXED LAYER CAPES TO INCREASE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN A LINE FROM DECATUR COUNTY TO LOGAN COUNTY AROUND 21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF DRYLINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER YUMA COUNTY.
STRONG 3 AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SFC AND 850 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA. ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE
EQUATION AND CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING DUST MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
NEBRASKA IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WINDS
BELOW 850MB ALONG WITH VARYING PIECES OF GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S
WEST TO MID 40S EAST.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOW 40S TO
AROUND 50 FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS
TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. RESULTING
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KS/CO/NE
BORDERS...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE COLDER
CANADIAN AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING
THE TIME RANGE.

SATURDAY...WARM AND BREEZY WITH CHANCE OF STORMS LATE. IT APPEARS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER BY WAY OF DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TIME ON SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM AIR
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP.
LATE IN THE DAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH BRINGING WITH IT A SHALLOW TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS RESULTING IN ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A GREAT CHANCE FOR THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY...BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE...BUT WITH SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
PRECIP...THOUGH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
THAN FURTHER SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP TO THE MID
30S IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SNOW COULD MIX
WITH THE RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDY. COOLER AND CLOUDY MONDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND AGAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES FALL OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH FREEZING...NOT SURPRISING
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. BOTH DAYS WILL BE WINDY WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN...AND AT THIS POINT BOTH DAYS LOOK LIKE SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
CRITERIA /3HR SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ WHILE MONDAY
HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS /1HR SUSTAINED 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS 58 MPH/
ARE INSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WHILE PRECIP IS FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS /LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR MOST SPOTS/ WHICH
MEANS BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN IF PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...BUT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST WITH THE STRONG WINDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY IMPACTS AT THE
SPECIFIC TAF SITES WILL BE MINIMAL.

ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AFTER 03Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

NEW NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM SURFACE TO 600 MB
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF KANSAS COUNTIES. DEW POINTS AT KAKO ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS ARE GUSTING IN MOST LOCATIONS TO
25 MPH. SO...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO YUMA COUNTY COLORADO
AND THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF KANSAS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-
     028-041-042.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...MENTZER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 231454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF DRYLINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER YUMA COUNTY.
STRONG 3 AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SFC AND 850 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA. ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE
EQUATION AND CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING DUST MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
NEBRASKA IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WINDS
BELOW 850MB ALONG WITH VARYING PIECES OF GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S
WEST TO MID 40S EAST.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOW 40S TO
AROUND 50 FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS
TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. RESULTING
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KS/CO/NE
BORDERS...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE COLDER
CANADIAN AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING
THE TIME RANGE.

SATURDAY...WARM AND BREEZY WITH CHANCE OF STORMS LATE. IT APPEARS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER BY WAY OF DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TIME ON SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM AIR
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP.
LATE IN THE DAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH BRINGING WITH IT A SHALLOW TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS RESULTING IN ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A GREAT CHANCE FOR THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY...BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE...BUT WITH SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
PRECIP...THOUGH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
THAN FURTHER SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP TO THE MID
30S IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SNOW COULD MIX
WITH THE RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDY. COOLER AND CLOUDY MONDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND AGAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES FALL OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH FREEZING...NOT SURPRISING
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. BOTH DAYS WILL BE WINDY WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN...AND AT THIS POINT BOTH DAYS LOOK LIKE SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
CRITERIA /3HR SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ WHILE MONDAY
HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS /1HR SUSTAINED 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS 58 MPH/
ARE INSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WHILE PRECIP IS FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS /LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR MOST SPOTS/ WHICH
MEANS BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN IF PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21Z-23Z. FROM 23Z THROUGH 05Z A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL CREATING WIND GUSTS AROUND
45KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER. BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED WITH MVFR VIS
AND CIGS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AFTER
05Z NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY DECLINE WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM 04Z-09Z THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 09Z-12Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 12KTS FROM 19Z-
22Z. FROM 23Z-05Z A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35KTS OR SO. AFTER 05Z NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-15KTS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
AROUND 20Z WITH COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 23Z-03Z. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 03Z-07Z PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASE WITH NO PRECIPITATION AFTER 08Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

NEW NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM SURFACE TO 600 MB
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF KANSAS COUNTIES. DEW POINTS AT KAKO ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS ARE GUSTING IN MOST LOCATIONS TO
25 MPH. SO...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO YUMA COUNTY COLORADO
AND THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF KANSAS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-
     028-041-042.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 5 PM MDT /6
     PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ252>254.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...MENTZER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 231417
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
817 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 816 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

HOLDING THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. 12Z NAM IS JUST
ARRIVING...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ARE STILL
DEPICTED AT 00Z WITH LITTLE INHIBITION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM SHOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.
CONCERN IS THE LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FOCUSING MECHANISM TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z...SO IF THERE IS A BOUNDARY LURKING
AROUND...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF DRYLINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER YUMA COUNTY.
STRONG 3 AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SFC AND 850 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA. ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE
EQUATION AND CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING DUST MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
NEBRASKA IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WINDS
BELOW 850MB ALONG WITH VARYING PIECES OF GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S
WEST TO MID 40S EAST.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOW 40S TO
AROUND 50 FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS
TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. RESULTING
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KS/CO/NE
BORDERS...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE COLDER
CANADIAN AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING
THE TIME RANGE.

SATURDAY...WARM AND BREEZY WITH CHANCE OF STORMS LATE. IT APPEARS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER BY WAY OF DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TIME ON SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM AIR
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP.
LATE IN THE DAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH BRINGING WITH IT A SHALLOW TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS RESULTING IN ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A GREAT CHANCE FOR THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY...BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE...BUT WITH SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
PRECIP...THOUGH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
THAN FURTHER SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP TO THE MID
30S IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SNOW COULD MIX
WITH THE RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDY. COOLER AND CLOUDY MONDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND AGAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES FALL OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH FREEZING...NOT SURPRISING
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. BOTH DAYS WILL BE WINDY WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN...AND AT THIS POINT BOTH DAYS LOOK LIKE SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
CRITERIA /3HR SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ WHILE MONDAY
HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS /1HR SUSTAINED 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS 58 MPH/
ARE INSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WHILE PRECIP IS FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS /LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR MOST SPOTS/ WHICH
MEANS BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN IF PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21Z-23Z. FROM 23Z THROUGH 05Z A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL CREATING WIND GUSTS AROUND
45KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER. BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED WITH MVFR VIS
AND CIGS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AFTER
05Z NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY DECLINE WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM 04Z-09Z THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 09Z-12Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 12KTS FROM 19Z-
22Z. FROM 23Z-05Z A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35KTS OR SO. AFTER 05Z NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-15KTS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
AROUND 20Z WITH COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 23Z-03Z. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 03Z-07Z PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASE WITH NO PRECIPITATION AFTER 08Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TODAY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES OF KANSAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WITH KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES OF COLORADO EXPERIENCING VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER. FOR THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AFTER 5 PM MDT. FIRE
FIGHTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON
THE WIND FORECAST SHOULD ANY FIRES DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA COUNTY THROUGH SHERMAN INTO WICHITA
COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED WHICH IS UNDER THRESHOLDS FOR A HIGHLITE.

SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS. IN THESE AREAS
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-
     028-041-042.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-
     254.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99








000
FXUS63 KGLD 231045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF DRYLINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER YUMA COUNTY.
STRONG 3 AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SFC AND 850 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA. ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE
EQUATION AND CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING DUST MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
NEBRASKA IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WINDS
BELOW 850MB ALONG WITH VARYING PIECES OF GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S
WEST TO MID 40S EAST.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOW 40S TO
AROUND 50 FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS
TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. RESULTING
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KS/CO/NE
BORDERS...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE COLDER
CANADIAN AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING
THE TIME RANGE.

SATURDAY...WARM AND BREEZY WITH CHANCE OF STORMS LATE. IT APPEARS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER BY WAY OF DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TIME ON SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM AIR
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP.
LATE IN THE DAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH BRINGING WITH IT A SHALLOW TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS RESULTING IN ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A GREAT CHANCE FOR THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY...BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE...BUT WITH SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
PRECIP...THOUGH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
THAN FURTHER SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP TO THE MID
30S IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SNOW COULD MIX
WITH THE RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDY. COOLER AND CLOUDY MONDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND AGAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES FALL OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH FREEZING...NOT SURPRISING
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. BOTH DAYS WILL BE WINDY WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN...AND AT THIS POINT BOTH DAYS LOOK LIKE SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
CRITERIA /3HR SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ WHILE MONDAY
HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS /1HR SUSTAINED 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS 58 MPH/
ARE INSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WHILE PRECIP IS FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS /LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR MOST SPOTS/ WHICH
MEANS BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN IF PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21Z-23Z. FROM 23Z THROUGH 05Z A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL CREATING WIND GUSTS AROUND
45KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER. BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED WITH MVFR VIS
AND CIGS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AFTER
05Z NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY DECLINE WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM 04Z-09Z THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 09Z-12Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 12KTS FROM 19Z-
22Z. FROM 23Z-05Z A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35KTS OR SO. AFTER 05Z NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-15KTS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
AROUND 20Z WITH COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 23Z-03Z. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 03Z-07Z PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASE WITH NO PRECIPITATION AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TODAY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES OF KANSAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WITH KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES OF COLORADO EXPERIENCING VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER. FOR THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AFTER 5 PM MDT. FIRE
FIGHTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON
THE WIND FORECAST SHOULD ANY FIRES DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA COUNTY THROUGH SHERMAN INTO WICHITA
COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED WHICH IS UNDER THRESHOLDS FOR A HIGHLITE.

SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS. IN THESE AREAS
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-
     028-041-042.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-
     254.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99








000
FXUS63 KGLD 230546
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1146 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 51 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT
THESE GUSTS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECLINE THROUGH THE
EVENING A INSTABILITY WEAKENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE FORECAST TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE INITIATING AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT AS BOTH
FEATURES MOVE NORTHEAST. THE BEST 700-500MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
APPEARS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHERE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FEATURES MOVE
NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY WANING HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. SO FAR HAVE ONLY HAD REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THESE STORMS. DUE TO THE
NARROW CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP WITH ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE. SOME
STORMS MAY ALSO LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO LINGER AND WHERE A SECOND WAVE OF
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE 700MB TROUGH.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST PAST THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET.  A FIRST GLANCE AT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WINDS
SHOULD DECLINE BY SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS. HOWEVER WILL
MONITOR INCOMING MODEL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE LOW LEVEL WAA FROM
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BUSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF WIND...FIRE
WEATHER...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
TRI STATE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS OF
19Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE REGION AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND CREATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
IT WILL BE ALONG THIS LINE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MODIFIED KDNR SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES WOULD BE PRESENT IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

WITH STRONG 50 KT JET AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND 35 TO 40 KTS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 5000 FT...NOT
CURRENTLY THINKING TORNADOES WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH MIXED
LAYER HELICITY LOOKS FAVORABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT THESE
FEATURES SHOULD BE ALIGNED SOMEWHERE NEAR A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE POPS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
EAST OF THE LINE. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE LINE SHOULD RANGE FROM
1200 TO 2200 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KTS.  SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LINE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA AROUND
06Z THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. POPS FOR THOSE
TIME PERIODS WILL BE NIL.

SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WEDNESDAY AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BECOME EVIDENT ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 17 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  NAM WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG
AND GFS WINDS ARE CLEARLY SURPASSING THE CRITERIA. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST
SOLUTION TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM 70 TO 75.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY BUT THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WRAPAROUND SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FA. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COOL TO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER DISAPPEARS.
WINDS WILL ROTATE TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS WILL DECLINE FOR A BRIEF TIME AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...AN HOUR OR LESS POSSIBLY...THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRENGTHEN. KGLD MAY HAVE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
THAN KMCK DUE TO A FASTER PRESSURE RISE NEAR KGLD BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SOME LINGERING STORMS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CONCERN FOR KGLD.
A SIMILAR STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE AT THE END OF MARCH CAUSED
VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO MVFR DUE TO BLOWING DUST SO WILL USE THAT
AS A FIRST GUESS FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE BEHIND THE FRONT AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
6Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ALW
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL








000
FXUS63 KGLD 230109
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
709 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 51 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT
THESE GUSTS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECLINE THROUGH THE
EVENING A INSTABILITY WEAKENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE FORECAST TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE INITIATING AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT AS BOTH
FEATURES MOVE NORTHEAST. THE BEST 700-500MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
APPEARS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHERE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FEATURES MOVE
NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY WANING HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. SO FAR HAVE ONLY HAD REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THESE STORMS. DUE TO THE
NARROW CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP WITH ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE. SOME
STORMS MAY ALSO LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO LINGER AND WHERE A SECOND WAVE OF
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE 700MB TROUGH.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST PAST THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET.  A FIRST GLANCE AT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WINDS
SHOULD DECLINE BY SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS. HOWEVER WILL
MONITOR INCOMING MODEL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE LOW LEVEL WAA FROM
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BUSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF WIND...FIRE
WEATHER...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
TRI STATE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS OF
19Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE REGION AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND CREATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
IT WILL BE ALONG THIS LINE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MODIFIED KDNR SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES WOULD BE PRESENT IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

WITH STRONG 50 KT JET AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND 35 TO 40 KTS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 5000 FT...NOT
CURRENTLY THINKING TORNADOES WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH MIXED
LAYER HELICITY LOOKS FAVORABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT THESE
FEATURES SHOULD BE ALIGNED SOMEWHERE NEAR A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE POPS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
EAST OF THE LINE. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE LINE SHOULD RANGE FROM
1200 TO 2200 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KTS.  SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LINE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA AROUND
06Z THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. POPS FOR THOSE
TIME PERIODS WILL BE NIL.

SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WEDNESDAY AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BECOME EVIDENT ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 17 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  NAM WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG
AND GFS WINDS ARE CLEARLY SURPASSING THE CRITERIA. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST
SOLUTION TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM 70 TO 75.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY BUT THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WRAPAROUND SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FA. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COOL TO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FIRST CONCERN
FOR TAFS WILL BE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WHICH
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KTRB WITH SOME LIGHTER DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN COLORADO. INCLUDED VCTS FOR KGLD AT 0Z AND FOR KMCK AT 01Z
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH WHAT THE HRRR
IS DEPICTING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUING TO GUST UP
TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL BE HIGH BASED AND
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT LOCATION PINNED DOWN THIS FAR OUT
FOR WHERE THESE STORMS WILL INITIATE SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS...AT 19Z FOR KMCK AND 20Z FOR KGLD. KMCK HAS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WHEREAS KGLD IS
MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BASED ON WHERE THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ALW
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KGLD 222341
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE FORECAST TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE INITIATING AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT AS BOTH
FEATURES MOVE NORTHEAST. THE BEST 700-500MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
APPEARS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHERE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FEATURES MOVE
NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY WANING HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. SO FAR HAVE ONLY HAD REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THESE STORMS. DUE TO THE
NARROW CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP WITH ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE. SOME
STORMS MAY ALSO LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO LINGER AND WHERE A SECOND WAVE OF
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE 700MB TROUGH.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST PAST THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET.  A FIRST GLANCE AT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WINDS
SHOULD DECLINE BY SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS. HOWEVER WILL
MONITOR INCOMING MODEL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE LOW LEVEL WAA FROM
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BUSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF WIND...FIRE
WEATHER...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
TRI STATE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS OF
19Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE REGION AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND CREATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
IT WILL BE ALONG THIS LINE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MODIFIED KDNR SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES WOULD BE PRESENT IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

WITH STRONG 50 KT JET AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND 35 TO 40 KTS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 5000 FT...NOT
CURRENTLY THINKING TORNADOES WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH MIXED
LAYER HELICITY LOOKS FAVORABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT THESE
FEATURES SHOULD BE ALIGNED SOMEWHERE NEAR A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE POPS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
EAST OF THE LINE. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE LINE SHOULD RANGE FROM
1200 TO 2200 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KTS.  SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LINE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA AROUND
06Z THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. POPS FOR THOSE
TIME PERIODS WILL BE NIL.

SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WEDNESDAY AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BECOME EVIDENT ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 17 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  NAM WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG
AND GFS WINDS ARE CLEARLY SURPASSING THE CRITERIA. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST
SOLUTION TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM 70 TO 75.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY BUT THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WRAPAROUND SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FA. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COOL TO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FIRST CONCERN
FOR TAFS WILL BE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WHICH
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KTRB WITH SOME LIGHTER DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN COLORADO. INCLUDED VCTS FOR KGLD AT 0Z AND FOR KMCK AT 01Z
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH WHAT THE HRRR
IS DEPICTING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUING TO GUST UP
TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL BE HIGH BASED AND
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT LOCATION PINNED DOWN THIS FAR OUT
FOR WHERE THESE STORMS WILL INITIATE SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS...AT 19Z FOR KMCK AND 20Z FOR KGLD. KMCK HAS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WHEREAS KGLD IS
MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BASED ON WHERE THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KGLD 222338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE FORECAST TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE INITIATING AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT AS BOTH
FEATURES MOVE NORTHEAST. THE BEST 700-500MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
APPEARS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHERE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FEATURES MOVE
NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY WANING HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. SO FAR HAVE ONLY HAD REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THESE STORMS. DUE TO THE
NARROW CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP WITH ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE. SOME
STORMS MAY ALSO LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO LINGER AND WHERE A SECOND WAVE OF
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE 700MB TROUGH.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST PAST THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET.  A FIRST GLANCE AT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WINDS
SHOULD DECLINE BY SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS. HOWEVER WILL
MONITOR INCOMING MODEL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE LOW LEVEL WAA FROM
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BUSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF WIND...FIRE
WEATHER...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
TRI STATE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS OF
19Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE REGION AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND CREATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
IT WILL BE ALONG THIS LINE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MODIFIED KDNR SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES WOULD BE PRESENT IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

WITH STRONG 50 KT JET AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND 35 TO 40 KTS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 5000 FT...NOT
CURRENTLY THINKING TORNADOES WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH MIXED
LAYER HELICITY LOOKS FAVORABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT THESE
FEATURES SHOULD BE ALIGNED SOMEWHERE NEAR A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE POPS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
EAST OF THE LINE. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE LINE SHOULD RANGE FROM
1200 TO 2200 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KTS.  SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LINE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA AROUND
06Z THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. POPS FOR THOSE
TIME PERIODS WILL BE NIL.

SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WEDNESDAY AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BECOME EVIDENT ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 17 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  NAM WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG
AND GFS WINDS ARE CLEARLY SURPASSING THE CRITERIA. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST
SOLUTION TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM 70 TO 75.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY BUT THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WRAPAROUND SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FA. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COOL TO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOWER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...AFFECTING BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD STAY WITHIN THE VICINITY AND NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES. OTHER THAN STRONG WIND
SPEEDS...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...MK








000
FXUS63 KGLD 222332
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
532 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BUSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF WIND...FIRE
WEATHER...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
TRI STATE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS OF
19Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE REGION AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND CREATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
IT WILL BE ALONG THIS LINE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MODIFIED KDNR SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES WOULD BE PRESENT IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

WITH STRONG 50 KT JET AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND 35 TO 40 KTS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 5000 FT...NOT
CURRENTLY THINKING TORNADOES WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH MIXED
LAYER HELICITY LOOKS FAVORABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT THESE
FEATURES SHOULD BE ALIGNED SOMEWHERE NEAR A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE POPS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
EAST OF THE LINE. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE LINE SHOULD RANGE FROM
1200 TO 2200 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KTS.  SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LINE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA AROUND
06Z THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. POPS FOR THOSE
TIME PERIODS WILL BE NIL.

SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WEDNESDAY AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BECOME EVIDENT ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 17 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  NAM WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG
AND GFS WINDS ARE CLEARLY SURPASSING THE CRITERIA. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST
SOLUTION TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM 70 TO 75.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY BUT THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WRAPAROUND SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FA. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COOL TO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FIRST CONCERN
FOR TAFS WILL BE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WHICH
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KTRB WITH SOME LIGHTER DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN COLORADO. INCLUDED VCTS FOR KGLD AT 0Z AND FOR KMCK AT 01Z
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH WHAT THE HRRR
IS DEPICTING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUING TO GUST UP
TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL BE HIGH BASED AND
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT LOCATION PINNED DOWN THIS FAR OUT
FOR WHERE THESE STORMS WILL INITIATE SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS...AT 19Z FOR KMCK AND 20Z FOR KGLD. KMCK HAS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WHEREAS KGLD IS
MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BASED ON WHERE THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KGLD 222047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
247 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BUSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF WIND...FIRE
WEATHER...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
TRI STATE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS OF
19Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE REGION AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND CREATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
IT WILL BE ALONG THIS LINE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MODIFIED KDNR SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES WOULD BE PRESENT IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

WITH STRONG 50 KT JET AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND 35 TO 40 KTS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 5000 FT...NOT
CURRENTLY THINKING TORNADOES WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH MIXED
LAYER HELICITY LOOKS FAVORABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT THESE
FEATURES SHOULD BE ALIGNED SOMEWHERE NEAR A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE POPS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
EAST OF THE LINE. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE LINE SHOULD RANGE FROM
1200 TO 2200 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KTS.  SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LINE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA AROUND
06Z THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. POPS FOR THOSE
TIME PERIODS WILL BE NIL.

SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WEDNESDAY AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BECOME EVIDENT ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 17 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  NAM WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG
AND GFS WINDS ARE CLEARLY SURPASSING THE CRITERIA. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST
SOLUTION TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM 70 TO 75.


IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY BUT THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WRAPAROUND SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FA. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COOL TO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOWER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...AFFECTING BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD STAY WITHIN THE VICINITY AND NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES. OTHER THAN STRONG WIND
SPEEDS...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...MK









000
FXUS63 KGLD 221945
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BUSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF WIND...FIRE
WEATHER...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
TRI STATE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS OF
19Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE REGION AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND CREATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
IT WILL BE ALONG THIS LINE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MODIFIED KDNR SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES WOULD BE PRESENT IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

WITH STRONG 50 KT JET AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND 35 TO 40 KTS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 5000 FT...NOT
CURRENTLY THINKING TORNADOES WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH MIXED
LAYER HELICITY LOOKS FAVORABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C-22C WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BUT WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FULL MIXING
POTENTIAL MAY BE IMPACTED THUS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES DURING THE DAY THEN MOVES OVER THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET DETAILED AS SFC
FEATURES...INSTABILITY AND LIFTING MECHANISMS NOT HANDLED WELL BY
ECMWF/GFS THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN LACK OF AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL
POSITION SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR
MID 70S SOUTH FOR HIGHS AND LOW 40S WEST...UPPER 40S EAST FOR LOWS.
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...CLOSED LOW WITHIN NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 5C
NORTH TO 15C SOUTH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FORECAST FOR HIGHS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT 850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST). WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO VERY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY
DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. GENERAL IDEA AT 500MB IS FOR THE CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CHILLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1C EAST TO NEAR 10C WEST. WONT MAKE CHANGES
TO EXTENDED PROCEDURE FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 50S HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS INT HE MID TO
UPPER 20S. MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLDER
AIR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOWER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...AFFECTING BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD STAY WITHIN THE VICINITY AND NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES. OTHER THAN STRONG WIND
SPEEDS...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK








000
FXUS63 KGLD 221715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FROM TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES STRONG WINDS...FIRE WEATHER...AND
THE CHANCE/SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE EAST OF THAT.

AT JET LEVEL...HARD TO TELL WITH THE BULK OF THE JET NOT OVER LAND
BUT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN GFS...UKMET
...CANADIAN AND NAM. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE CLOSE. BASED ON
SATELLITE THE NAM STARTED OUT BETTER INITIALLY WITH SYSTEM NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. HOWEVER BY 06Z ALL THE
MODELS WERE SPOT ON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF MAY
HAVE A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE OVER THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE ECMWF...SREF AND
NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
SREF...NAM AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

UNCERTAIN FORECAST DUE TO THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
DRIVING THE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...
IS STILL NOT OVER LAND YET AND HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER
NETWORK YET. MODEL WAFFLING ON THIS TIME PERIOD HAS NOT GENERATED
ANY CONFIDENCE AS WELL.

TODAY/TONIGHT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EXCEED 100 METERS. USUALLY LARGE HEIGHT FALLS LIKE THAT WILL INDUCE
LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AND CAUSE A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THAT
CAN BE SEEN IN THE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS. BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE
UNDERDOING THIS SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MY
WESTERN HALF.

NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY
AND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO LOWERED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONFINED THE CHANCE TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT ENDS LATER
TONIGHT. IF THERE WAS MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
COULD BE MUCH HIGHER BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE.
EVEN THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT...THE SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE WITH THE NEWER GUIDANCE
AND CHANGED LITTLE IF ANY. WINDS WILL STAY 15 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
NIGHT AND KEEP THE MINS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY...MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER
ON WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED UP CONSIDERABLY FROM
YESTERDAY. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM WERE VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER WITH
THE IT ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE COLD FRONT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT COULD GET CLOSE TO A WIND ADVISORY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SO WITH MORE AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION...FELT A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE JET WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA DURING BY LATE MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON THE JET POSITION ACTUALLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST A
LITTLE LEAVING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF...SOLIDLY IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. IN ADDITION TO THIS LIFT...VERY STRONG LOWER
AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL GIVE A GOOD CHANCE TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF. DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BUT
FINAL POSITION OF FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER. DUE
TO THE LIFT...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...CONTINUED WHAT
THE DAY SHIFT DID AND KEPT THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IT. IF ANY ADDITIONAL
SLOWING OF THE FRONT OCCURS...WHAT NOW LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD AFFECT EVEN A LARGER AREA. AS IT LOOKS NOW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

ONCE AGAIN A LARGE AREA OF 10 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE GRADIENT WINDS MAY BE UNDERDONE AND ANY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW COULD ENHANCE THE SPEEDS. BECAUSE OF THE
ABOVE REASONING AND PER A GOOD SOURCE REGION FOR DUST AND PREVIOUS
SIMILAR SCENARIOS IT WAS DECIDED TO ADD BLOWING DUST TO THE GRIDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND DUE TO SOME
LIFT COMING ACROSS BUT ON THE WHOLE IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW COOL TO MAKE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE COOL BIAS
RECENTLY SO DECIDED TO GO BETWEEN THE COOLER AND WARMER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C-22C WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BUT WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FULL MIXING
POTENTIAL MAY BE IMPACTED THUS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES DURING THE DAY THEN MOVES OVER THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET DETAILED AS SFC
FEATURES...INSTABILITY AND LIFTING MECHANISMS NOT HANDLED WELL BY
ECMWF/GFS THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN LACK OF AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL
POSITION SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR
MID 70S SOUTH FOR HIGHS AND LOW 40S WEST...UPPER 40S EAST FOR LOWS.
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...CLOSED LOW WITHIN NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 5C
NORTH TO 15C SOUTH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FORECAST FOR HIGHS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT 850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST). WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO VERY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY
DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. GENERAL IDEA AT 500MB IS FOR THE CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CHILLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1C EAST TO NEAR 10C WEST. WONT MAKE CHANGES
TO EXTENDED PROCEDURE FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 50S HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS INT HE MID TO
UPPER 20S. MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLDER
AIR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOWER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...AFFECTING BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD STAY WITHIN THE VICINITY AND NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES. OTHER THAN STRONG WIND
SPEEDS...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 45 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY....GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE AND FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW 20
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD TO BE ABLE TO
REACH 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHERE THE LATER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER. SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE. HOWEVER IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND THE 3 HOUR REQUIREMENT WILL NOT BE REACHED.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER









000
FXUS63 KGLD 221144
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
544 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FROM TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES STRONG WINDS...FIRE WEATHER...AND
THE CHANCE/SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE EAST OF THAT.

AT JET LEVEL...HARD TO TELL WITH THE BULK OF THE JET NOT OVER LAND
BUT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN GFS...UKMET
...CANADIAN AND NAM. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE CLOSE. BASED ON
SATELLITE THE NAM STARTED OUT BETTER INITIALLY WITH SYSTEM NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. HOWEVER BY 06Z ALL THE
MODELS WERE SPOT ON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF MAY
HAVE A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE OVER THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE ECMWF...SREF AND
NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
SREF...NAM AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

UNCERTAIN FORECAST DUE TO THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
DRIVING THE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...
IS STILL NOT OVER LAND YET AND HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER
NETWORK YET. MODEL WAFFLING ON THIS TIME PERIOD HAS NOT GENERATED
ANY CONFIDENCE AS WELL.

TODAY/TONIGHT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EXCEED 100 METERS. USUALLY LARGE HEIGHT FALLS LIKE THAT WILL INDUCE
LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AND CAUSE A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THAT
CAN BE SEEN IN THE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS. BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE
UNDERDOING THIS SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MY
WESTERN HALF.

NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY
AND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO LOWERED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONFINED THE CHANCE TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT ENDS LATER
TONIGHT. IF THERE WAS MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
COULD BE MUCH HIGHER BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE.
EVEN THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT...THE SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE WITH THE NEWER GUIDANCE
AND CHANGED LITTLE IF ANY. WINDS WILL STAY 15 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
NIGHT AND KEEP THE MINS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY...MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER
ON WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED UP CONSIDERABLY FROM
YESTERDAY. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM WERE VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER WITH
THE IT ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE COLD FRONT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT COULD GET CLOSE TO A WIND ADVISORY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SO WITH MORE AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION...FELT A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE JET WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA DURING BY LATE MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON THE JET POSITION ACTUALLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST A
LITTLE LEAVING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF...SOLIDLY IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. IN ADDITION TO THIS LIFT...VERY STRONG LOWER
AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL GIVE A GOOD CHANCE TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF. DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BUT
FINAL POSITION OF FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER. DUE
TO THE LIFT...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...CONTINUED WHAT
THE DAY SHIFT DID AND KEPT THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IT. IF ANY ADDITIONAL
SLOWING OF THE FRONT OCCURS...WHAT NOW LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD AFFECT EVEN A LARGER AREA. AS IT LOOKS NOW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

ONCE AGAIN A LARGE AREA OF 10 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE GRADIENT WINDS MAY BE UNDERDONE AND ANY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW COULD ENHANCE THE SPEEDS. BECAUSE OF THE
ABOVE REASONING AND PER A GOOD SOURCE REGION FOR DUST AND PREVIOUS
SIMILAR SCENARIOS IT WAS DECIDED TO ADD BLOWING DUST TO THE GRIDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND DUE TO SOME
LIFT COMING ACROSS BUT ON THE WHOLE IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW COOL TO MAKE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE COOL BIAS
RECENTLY SO DECIDED TO GO BETWEEN THE COOLER AND WARMER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C-22C WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BUT WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FULL MIXING
POTENTIAL MAY BE IMPACTED THUS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES DURING THE DAY THEN MOVES OVER THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET DETAILED AS SFC
FEATURES...INSTABILITY AND LIFTING MECHANISMS NOT HANDLED WELL BY
ECMWF/GFS THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN LACK OF AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL
POSITION SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR
MID 70S SOUTH FOR HIGHS AND LOW 40S WEST...UPPER 40S EAST FOR LOWS.
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...CLOSED LOW WITHIN NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 5C
NORTH TO 15C SOUTH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FORECAST FOR HIGHS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT 850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST). WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO VERY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY
DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. GENERAL IDEA AT 500MB IS FOR THE CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CHILLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1C EAST TO NEAR 10C WEST. WONT MAKE CHANGES
TO EXTENDED PROCEDURE FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 50S HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS INT HE MID TO
UPPER 20S. MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLDER
AIR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AND DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET. HOWEVER EVEN AT THAT
TIME...WINDS WILL ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUE GUSTY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN
THE EVENING...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE COVERAGE AND
SINCE THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE LAST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...CHOSE TO HANDLE THIS AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH ONLY A VCTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 45 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY....GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE AND FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW 20
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD TO BE ABLE TO
REACH 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHERE THE LATER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER. SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE. HOWEVER IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND THE 3 HOUR REQUIREMENT WILL NOT BE REACHED.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT
     /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-
     042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT
     /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 221020
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FROM TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES STRONG WINDS...FIRE WEATHER...AND
THE CHANCE/SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE EAST OF THAT.

AT JET LEVEL...HARD TO TELL WITH THE BULK OF THE JET NOT OVER LAND
BUT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN GFS...UKMET
...CANADIAN AND NAM. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE CLOSE. BASED ON
SATELLITE THE NAM STARTED OUT BETTER INITIALLY WITH SYSTEM NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. HOWEVER BY 06Z ALL THE
MODELS WERE SPOT ON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF MAY
HAVE A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE OVER THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE ECMWF...SREF AND
NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
SREF...NAM AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

UNCERTAIN FORECAST DUE TO THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
DRIVING THE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...
IS STILL NOT OVER LAND YET AND HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER
NETWORK YET. MODEL WAFFLING ON THIS TIME PERIOD HAS NOT GENERATED
ANY CONFIDENCE AS WELL.

TODAY/TONIGHT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EXCEED 100 METERS. USUALLY LARGE HEIGHT FALLS LIKE THAT WILL INDUCE
LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AND CAUSE A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THAT
CAN BE SEEN IN THE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS. BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE
UNDERDOING THIS SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MY
WESTERN HALF.

NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY
AND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO LOWERED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONFINED THE CHANCE TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT ENDS LATER
TONIGHT. IF THERE WAS MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
COULD BE MUCH HIGHER BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE.
EVEN THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT...THE SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE WITH THE NEWER GUIDANCE
AND CHANGED LITTLE IF ANY. WINDS WILL STAY 15 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
NIGHT AND KEEP THE MINS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY...MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER
ON WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED UP CONSIDERABLY FROM
YESTERDAY. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM WERE VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER WITH
THE IT ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE COLD FRONT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT COULD GET CLOSE TO A WIND ADVISORY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SO WITH MORE AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION...FELT A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE JET WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA DURING BY LATE MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON THE JET POSITION ACTUALLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST A
LITTLE LEAVING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF...SOLIDLY IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. IN ADDITION TO THIS LIFT...VERY STRONG LOWER
AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL GIVE A GOOD CHANCE TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF. DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BUT
FINAL POSITION OF FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER. DUE
TO THE LIFT...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...CONTINUED WHAT
THE DAY SHIFT DID AND KEPT THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IT. IF ANY ADDITIONAL
SLOWING OF THE FRONT OCCURS...WHAT NOW LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD AFFECT EVEN A LARGER AREA. AS IT LOOKS NOW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

ONCE AGAIN A LARGE AREA OF 10 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE GRADIENT WINDS MAY BE UNDERDONE AND ANY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW COULD ENHANCE THE SPEEDS. BECAUSE OF THE
ABOVE REASONING AND PER A GOOD SOURCE REGION FOR DUST AND PREVIOUS
SIMILAR SCENARIOS IT WAS DECIDED TO ADD BLOWING DUST TO THE GRIDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND DUE TO SOME
LIFT COMING ACROSS BUT ON THE WHOLE IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW COOL TO MAKE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE COOL BIAS
RECENTLY SO DECIDED TO GO BETWEEN THE COOLER AND WARMER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C-22C WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BUT WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FULL MIXING
POTENTIAL MAY BE IMPACTED THUS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES DURING THE DAY THEN MOVES OVER THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET DETAILED AS SFC
FEATURES...INSTABILITY AND LIFTING MECHANISMS NOT HANDLED WELL BY
ECMWF/GFS THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN LACK OF AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL
POSITION SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR
MID 70S SOUTH FOR HIGHS AND LOW 40S WEST...UPPER 40S EAST FOR LOWS.
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...CLOSED LOW WITHIN NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 5C
NORTH TO 15C SOUTH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FORECAST FOR HIGHS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT 850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST). WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO VERY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY
DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. GENERAL IDEA AT 500MB IS FOR THE CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CHILLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1C EAST TO NEAR 10C WEST. WONT MAKE CHANGES
TO EXTENDED PROCEDURE FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 50S HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS INT HE MID TO
UPPER 20S. MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLDER
AIR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER AREA. HAVE PLACED A PROB30 GROUP INTO THE GLD TAF BETWEEN
22Z-01Z...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE MCK TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 45 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY....GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE AND FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW 20
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD TO BE ABLE TO
REACH 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHERE THE LATER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER. SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE. HOWEVER IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND THE 3 HOUR REQUIREMENT WILL NOT BE REACHED.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     MDT/8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-
     041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     MDT/8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER






000
FXUS63 KGLD 220906
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
306 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDNR AND KDDC
INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SOME DEGREE OF A DRY PROFILE...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE TOMORROW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN COLORADO AND PROVIDE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE MID MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND NOT CURRENTLY THINKING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL MEET 3
HOUR THRESHOLD.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY
ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR FIRE WEATHER...SO NOT EXPECTING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE GUSTY
WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGHER VORTICITY VALUES BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 IN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD BE PERSISTENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS STRONGER MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET LOOK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C-22C WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BUT WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FULL MIXING
POTENTIAL MAY BE IMPACTED THUS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES DURING THE DAY THEN MOVES OVER THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET DETAILED AS SFC
FEATURES...INSTABILITY AND LIFTING MECHANISMS NOT HANDLED WELL BY
ECMWF/GFS THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN LACK OF AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL
POSITION SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR
MID 70S SOUTH FOR HIGHS AND LOW 40S WEST...UPPER 40S EAST FOR LOWS.
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...CLOSED LOW WITHIN NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 5C
NORTH TO 15C SOUTH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FORECAST FOR HIGHS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT 850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST). WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO VERY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY
DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. GENERAL IDEA AT 500MB IS FOR THE CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CHILLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1C EAST TO NEAR 10C WEST. WONT MAKE CHANGES
TO EXTENDED PROCEDURE FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 50S HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS INT HE MID TO
UPPER 20S. MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLDER
AIR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER AREA. HAVE PLACED A PROB30 GROUP INTO THE GLD TAF BETWEEN
22Z-01Z...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE MCK TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART








000
FXUS63 KGLD 220558
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDNR AND KDDC
INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SOME DEGREE OF A DRY PROFILE...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE TOMORROW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN COLORADO AND PROVIDE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE MID MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND NOT CURRENTLY THINKING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL MEET 3
HOUR THRESHOLD.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY
ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR FIRE WEATHER...SO NOT EXPECTING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE GUSTY
WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGHER VORTICITY VALUES BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 IN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD BE PERSISTENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS STRONGER MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET LOOK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSITION EASTWARD WITH MAIN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
WAA AND LLJ DEVELOPING...WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER OUR EASTERN
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL EXPECTED MOVE
ACROSS REGION WITH DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH ACTING AS FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER OUR CWA (ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN CWA).
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A FASTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COMPLICATES POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF HIGHER SURFACE TD AND
CAPE WOULD BE PUSHED FURTHER EAST ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
SHEER PROFILES. EVEN WITH THE FASTER FRONT TIMING IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE OUR EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE AN A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE WINDOW MAY BE SMALLER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODELS INDICATED. STILL LOOKS LIKE LARGE HAIL/WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH LCLS ARE NOT TERRIBLE BASED ON CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR OUR AREA AND TORNADO POTENTIAL COULDNT BE RULED OUT.
I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SEVERE MENTION FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY ALSO BE MET
FOR THESE EASTERN LOCATIONS...AGAIN UNCERTAINTY ADDED DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE TROUGH POSITION/FRONT TIMING. VERY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES ARE ALSO ADVERTISED BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NW TO SE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ADVERTISED TO RETURN
DURING THESE PERIODS WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS (70S).

SATURDAY-MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AS ANOTHER
SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THESE PERIODS...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE FINER DETAILS...HOWEVER AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A COOLER/WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT THERE IS ACTUALLY A CHANCE WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO
WINTRY PRECIP OR EVEN A FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER AREA. HAVE PLACED A PROB30 GROUP INTO THE GLD TAF BETWEEN
22Z-01Z...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE MCK TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

RFW CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE...WED...AND THU...HOWEVER
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY FAVORS THU FOR BEST CHANCE OF
MEETING 3HR REQUIREMENT. ON WED CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RFW
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH TD VALUES INCREASING WITH FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MAY LIMIT THE WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS. HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...DR








000
FXUS63 KGLD 220151
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
751 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDNR AND KDDC
INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SOME DEGREE OF A DRY PROFILE...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE TOMORROW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN COLORADO AND PROVIDE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE MID MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND NOT CURRENTLY THINKING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL MEET 3
HOUR THRESHOLD.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY
ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR FIRE WEATHER...SO NOT EXPECTING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE GUSTY
WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGHER VORTICITY VALUES BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 IN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD BE PERSISTENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS STRONGER MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET LOOK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSITION EASTWARD WITH MAIN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
WAA AND LLJ DEVELOPING...WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER OUR EASTERN
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL EXPECTED MOVE
ACROSS REGION WITH DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH ACTING AS FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER OUR CWA (ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN CWA).
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A FASTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COMPLICATES POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF HIGHER SURFACE TD AND
CAPE WOULD BE PUSHED FURTHER EAST ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
SHEER PROFILES. EVEN WITH THE FASTER FRONT TIMING IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE OUR EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE AN A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE WINDOW MAY BE SMALLER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODELS INDICATED. STILL LOOKS LIKE LARGE HAIL/WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH LCLS ARE NOT TERRIBLE BASED ON CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR OUR AREA AND TORNADO POTENTIAL COULDNT BE RULED OUT.
I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SEVERE MENTION FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY ALSO BE MET
FOR THESE EASTERN LOCATIONS...AGAIN UNCERTAINTY ADDED DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE TROUGH POSITION/FRONT TIMING. VERY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES ARE ALSO ADVERTISED BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NW TO SE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ADVERTISED TO RETURN
DURING THESE PERIODS WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS (70S).

SATURDAY-MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AS ANOTHER
SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THESE PERIODS...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE FINER DETAILS...HOWEVER AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A COOLER/WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT THERE IS ACTUALLY A CHANCE WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO
WINTRY PRECIP OR EVEN A FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING SOUTH AFTER 08Z AND BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

RFW CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE...WED...AND THU...HOWEVER
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY FAVORS THU FOR BEST CHANCE OF
MEETING 3HR REQUIREMENT. ON WED CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RFW
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH TD VALUES INCREASING WITH FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MAY LIMIT THE WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS. HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...DR








000
FXUS63 KGLD 212025
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDNR AND KDDC
INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SOME DEGREE OF A DRY PROFILE...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE TOMORROW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN COLORADO AND PROVIDE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE MID MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND NOT CURRENTLY THINKING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL MEET 3
HOUR THRESHOLD.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY
ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR FIRE WEATHER...SO NOT EXPECTING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE GUSTY
WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGHER VORTICITY VALUES BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 IN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD BE PERSISTENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS STRONGER MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET LOOK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSITION EASTWARD WITH MAIN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
WAA AND LLJ DEVELOPING...WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER OUR EASTERN
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL EXPECTED MOVE
ACROSS REGION WITH DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH ACTING AS FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER OUR CWA (ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN CWA).
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A FASTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COMPLICATES POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF HIGHER SURFACE TD AND
CAPE WOULD BE PUSHED FURTHER EAST ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
SHEER PROFILES. EVEN WITH THE FASTER FRONT TIMING IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE OUR EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE AN A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE WINDOW MAY BE SMALLER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODELS INDICATED. STILL LOOKS LIKE LARGE HAIL/WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH LCLS ARE NOT TERRIBLE BASED ON CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR OUR AREA AND TORNADO POTENTIAL COULDNT BE RULED OUT.
I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SEVERE MENTION FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY ALSO BE MET
FOR THESE EASTERN LOCATIONS...AGAIN UNCERTAINTY ADDED DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE TROUGH POSITION/FRONT TIMING. VERY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES ARE ALSO ADVERTISED BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NW TO SE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ADVERTISED TO RETURN
DURING THESE PERIODS WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS (70S).

SATURDAY-MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AS ANOTHER
SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THESE PERIODS...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE FINER DETAILS...HOWEVER AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A COOLER/WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT THERE IS ACTUALLY A CHANCE WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO
WINTRY PRECIP OR EVEN A FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

STABLE AIR ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MINOR
WIND SHIFTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE MID MORNING HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

RFW CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE...WED...AND THU...HOWEVER
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY FAVORS THU FOR BEST CHANCE OF
MEETING 3HR REQUIREMENT. ON WED CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RFW
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH TD VALUES INCREASING WITH FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MAY LIMIT THE WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS. HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
FIRE WEATHER...DR









000
FXUS63 KGLD 211933
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
133 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDNR AND KDDC
INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SOME DEGREE OF A DRY PROFILE...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE TOMORROW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN COLORADO AND PROVIDE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE MID MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND NOT CURRENTLY THINKING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL MEET 3
HOUR THRESHOLD.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY
ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR FIRE WEATHER...SO NOT EXPECTING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE GUSTY
WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGHER VORTICITY VALUES BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 IN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD BE PERSISTENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS STRONGER MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET LOOK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY (HIGHEST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS MID 30S TO 40 WEST...LOW
40S EAST.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 60S TO LOW 70S GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN THE SPEED
OF THIS DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUT STILL LACK AGREEMENT
IN THE INTENSITY...WHETHER ITS AN OPEN TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF OR
CLOSED LIKE THE GFS. WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THUNDER CHANCES
AS A RESULT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AS UPPER
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HAVE AGAIN LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF IS TO HAVE SOME TYPE
OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE SATURDAYS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A GENERAL
LACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT A MODEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

STABLE AIR ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MINOR
WIND SHIFTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE MID MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK








000
FXUS63 KGLD 211716
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1116 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING/MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FROM CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THERE IS A SPLIT AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.
A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...HARD TO TELL BUT MODELS LOOK TO BE UNDERDOING THE JET
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OTHERWISE THERE WERE NO
PROBLEMS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF. THE SREF AND NAM DID NOT DO WELL.
THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER WITH THE WIND/SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THE
MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRYING AND RIDGING PUSH INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUN. NUDGED UP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHING THROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SO THE EASTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH DECENT CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT HAVING WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. ALSO MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THAT THERE
WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED DURING THE NIGHT.
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN THE WINDY
CATEGORY. DID GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO RUN A LITTLE TOO COOL LATELY. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN SHOWING
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS A LITTLE UNUSUAL FOR A NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THIS THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY VERY
MILD.

AS YESTERDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS YESTERDAY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. EVERYTHING STILL POINTS TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GO. LIFT LOOKS TO
BECOME DISORGANIZED ALOFT. HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DOES
DEVELOP. SO CAN SEE ANY ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BECAUSE OF THIS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECAUSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING.

MODEL STARTING TO CHANGE THEIR STORY FROM YESTERDAY WHICH THEY HAVE
BEEN DOING A LOT LATELY IN THIS FLOW PATTERN. NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD WITH IMPORTANT AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
THAT AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF EVERY FORECAST PARAMETER. COMPLEX JET
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ONE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
AFFECTS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
MOVING IN RIGHT BEHIND IT DURING THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS DIFFER IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF SYSTEM THAT MOVES TO ALONG THE
UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AFFECTS HOW FAST THE
INCOMING FRONT ARRIVES.

THE LATEST UKMET...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT INTO
THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN ANYTHING ELSE. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT
ALMOST EXITING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z NAM IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE ABOVE BUT IT DID COME IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z RUN. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
FASTER ECMWF WITH THE GEFS MEAN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE ECMWF. TENDENCY
HAS BEEN IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO COME IN FURTHER
SOUTH AND FOR THE FRONTS TO COME THROUGH FASTER. SO WILL BE LEANING
TOWARD THE FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAKES THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRICKY. ADJUSTED MAXES AND HAVE THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD.

THE MID AND UPPER LIFT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST LIFT
ALOFT IS ACTUALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT DOES NOT GET ANY FASTER...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OR SO THROUGH THE EVENING.

NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WIND. BECAUSE THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
FASTER...THE STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE SHOVED
FURTHER EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
HAVING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA.

AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE IS THE COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LARGE AREA OF 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 10 MB AND ABOVE WILL MAKE FOR VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS. SO WILL END UP HAVING A WIND ADVISORY EITHER AHEAD OR
BEHIND THE FRONT OR BOTH. EVEN AFTER THE THEY DECREASE FROM
EARLIER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY (HIGHEST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS MID 30S TO 40 WEST...LOW
40S EAST.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 60S TO LOW 70S GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN THE SPEED
OF THIS DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUT STILL LACK AGREEMENT
IN THE INTENSITY...WHETHER ITS AN OPEN TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF OR
CLOSED LIKE THE GFS. WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THUNDER CHANCES
AS A RESULT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AS UPPER
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HAVE AGAIN LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF IS TO HAVE SOME TYPE
OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE SATURDAYS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A GENERAL
LACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT A MODEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

STABLE AIR ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MINOR
WIND SHIFTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FOR TUESDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT NOT AS A HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY HAD
IN THERE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR WEST GET CLOSE TO 20
PERCENT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
BEING ISSUED.

FOR WEDNESDAY....WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM EITHER AHEAD OR
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...NOT SURE OF THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS
IF THE FRONT COMES IN FASTER THEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY NOT STAY
LOW ENOUGH FOR VERY LONG. SO VERY UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHERE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS
BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
25 MPH LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO ALL BUT CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO...
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES OF KANSAS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 211140
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING/MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FROM CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THERE IS A SPLIT AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.
A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...HARD TO TELL BUT MODELS LOOK TO BE UNDERDOING THE JET
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OTHERWISE THERE WERE NO
PROBLEMS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF. THE SREF AND NAM DID NOT DO WELL.
THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER WITH THE WIND/SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THE
MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRYING AND RIDGING PUSH INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUN. NUDGED UP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHING THROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SO THE EASTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH DECENT CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT HAVING WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. ALSO MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THAT THERE
WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED DURING THE NIGHT.
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN THE WINDY
CATEGORY. DID GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO RUN A LITTLE TOO COOL LATELY. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN SHOWING
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS A LITTLE UNUSUAL FOR A NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THIS THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY VERY
MILD.

AS YESTERDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS YESTERDAY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. EVERYTHING STILL POINTS TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GO. LIFT LOOKS TO
BECOME DISORGANIZED ALOFT. HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DOES
DEVELOP. SO CAN SEE ANY ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BECAUSE OF THIS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECAUSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING.

MODEL STARTING TO CHANGE THEIR STORY FROM YESTERDAY WHICH THEY HAVE
BEEN DOING A LOT LATELY IN THIS FLOW PATTERN. NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD WITH IMPORTANT AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
THAT AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF EVERY FORECAST PARAMETER. COMPLEX JET
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ONE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
AFFECTS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
MOVING IN RIGHT BEHIND IT DURING THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS DIFFER IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF SYSTEM THAT MOVES TO ALONG THE
UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AFFECTS HOW FAST THE
INCOMING FRONT ARRIVES.

THE LATEST UKMET...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT INTO
THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN ANYTHING ELSE. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT
ALMOST EXITING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z NAM IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE ABOVE BUT IT DID COME IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z RUN. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
FASTER ECMWF WITH THE GEFS MEAN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE ECMWF. TENDENCY
HAS BEEN IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO COME IN FURTHER
SOUTH AND FOR THE FRONTS TO COME THROUGH FASTER. SO WILL BE LEANING
TOWARD THE FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAKES THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRICKY. ADJUSTED MAXES AND HAVE THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD.

THE MID AND UPPER LIFT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST LIFT
ALOFT IS ACTUALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT DOES NOT GET ANY FASTER...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OR SO THROUGH THE EVENING.

NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WIND. BECAUSE THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
FASTER...THE STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE SHOVED
FURTHER EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
HAVING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA.

AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE IS THE COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LARGE AREA OF 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 10 MB AND ABOVE WILL MAKE FOR VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS. SO WILL END UP HAVING A WIND ADVISORY EITHER AHEAD OR
BEHIND THE FRONT OR BOTH. EVEN AFTER THE THEY DECREASE FROM
EARLIER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY (HIGHEST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS MID 30S TO 40 WEST...LOW
40S EAST.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 60S TO LOW 70S GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN THE SPEED
OF THIS DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUT STILL LACK AGREEMENT
IN THE INTENSITY...WHETHER ITS AN OPEN TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF OR
CLOSED LIKE THE GFS. WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THUNDER CHANCES
AS A RESULT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AS UPPER
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HAVE AGAIN LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF IS TO HAVE SOME TYPE
OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE SATURDAYS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A GENERAL
LACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT A MODEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FOR TUESDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT NOT AS A HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY HAD
IN THERE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR WEST GET CLOSE TO 20
PERCENT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
BEING ISSUED.

FOR WEDNESDAY....WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM EITHER AHEAD OR
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...NOT SURE OF THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS
IF THE FRONT COMES IN FASTER THEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY NOT STAY
LOW ENOUGH FOR VERY LONG. SO VERY UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHERE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS
BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
25 MPH LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO ALL BUT CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO...
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES OF KANSAS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER








000
FXUS63 KGLD 211021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING/MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FROM CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THERE IS A SPLIT AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.
A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...HARD TO TELL BUT MODELS LOOK TO BE UNDERDOING THE JET
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OTHERWISE THERE WERE NO
PROBLEMS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF. THE SREF AND NAM DID NOT DO WELL.
THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER WITH THE WIND/SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THE
MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRYING AND RIDGING PUSH INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUN. NUDGED UP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHING THROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SO THE EASTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH DECENT CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT HAVING WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. ALSO MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THAT THERE
WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED DURING THE NIGHT.
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN THE WINDY
CATEGORY. DID GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO RUN A LITTLE TOO COOL LATELY. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN SHOWING
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS A LITTLE UNUSUAL FOR A NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THIS THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY VERY
MILD.

AS YESTERDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS YESTERDAY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. EVERYTHING STILL POINTS TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GO. LIFT LOOKS TO
BECOME DISORGANIZED ALOFT. HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DOES
DEVELOP. SO CAN SEE ANY ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BECAUSE OF THIS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECAUSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING.

MODEL STARTING TO CHANGE THEIR STORY FROM YESTERDAY WHICH THEY HAVE
BEEN DOING A LOT LATELY IN THIS FLOW PATTERN. NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD WITH IMPORTANT AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
THAT AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF EVERY FORECAST PARAMETER. COMPLEX JET
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ONE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
AFFECTS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
MOVING IN RIGHT BEHIND IT DURING THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS DIFFER IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF SYSTEM THAT MOVES TO ALONG THE
UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AFFECTS HOW FAST THE
INCOMING FRONT ARRIVES.

THE LATEST UKMET...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT INTO
THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN ANYTHING ELSE. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT
ALMOST EXITING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z NAM IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE ABOVE BUT IT DID COME IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z RUN. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
FASTER ECMWF WITH THE GEFS MEAN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE ECMWF. TENDENCY
HAS BEEN IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO COME IN FURTHER
SOUTH AND FOR THE FRONTS TO COME THROUGH FASTER. SO WILL BE LEANING
TOWARD THE FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAKES THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRICKY. ADJUSTED MAXES AND HAVE THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD.

THE MID AND UPPER LIFT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST LIFT
ALOFT IS ACTUALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT DOES NOT GET ANY FASTER...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OR SO THROUGH THE EVENING.

NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WIND. BECAUSE THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
FASTER...THE STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE SHOVED
FURTHER EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
HAVING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA.

AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE IS THE COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LARGE AREA OF 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 10 MB AND ABOVE WILL MAKE FOR VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS. SO WILL END UP HAVING A WIND ADVISORY EITHER AHEAD OR
BEHIND THE FRONT OR BOTH. EVEN AFTER THE THEY DECREASE FROM
EARLIER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY (HIGHEST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS MID 30S TO 40 WEST...LOW
40S EAST.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 60S TO LOW 70S GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN THE SPEED
OF THIS DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUT STILL LACK AGREEMENT
IN THE INTENSITY...WHETHER ITS AN OPEN TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF OR
CLOSED LIKE THE GFS. WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THUNDER CHANCES
AS A RESULT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AS UPPER
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HAVE AGAIN LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF IS TO HAVE SOME TYPE
OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE SATURDAYS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A GENERAL
LACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT A MODEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 06Z WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AFTER 10Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING WITH THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FOR TUESDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT NOT AS A HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY HAD
IN THERE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR WEST GET CLOSE TO 20
PERCENT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
BEING ISSUED.

FOR WEDNESDAY....WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM EITHER AHEAD OR
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...NOT SURE OF THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS
IF THE FRONT COMES IN FASTER THEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY NOT STAY
LOW ENOUGH FOR VERY LONG. SO VERY UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHERE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS
BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
25 MPH LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO ALL BUT CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO...
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES OF KANSAS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER






000
FXUS63 KGLD 210905
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

500MB LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. SBCAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY LOW...ONLY AROUND 10KTS.
AS A RESULT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC DOES SHOW SOME NONZERO VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF LANDSPOUT THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY (HIGHEST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS MID 30S TO 40 WEST...LOW
40S EAST.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 60S TO LOW 70S GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN THE SPEED
OF THIS DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUT STILL LACK AGREEMENT
IN THE INTENSITY...WHETHER ITS AN OPEN TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF OR
CLOSED LIKE THE GFS. WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THUNDER CHANCES
AS A RESULT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AS UPPER
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HAVE AGAIN LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF IS TO HAVE SOME TYPE
OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE SATURDAYS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A GENERAL
LACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT A MODEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 06Z WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AFTER 10Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING WITH THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS BELOW 20
PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO ALL BUT CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO...GREELEY
AND WICHITA COUNTIES OF KANSAS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99








000
FXUS63 KGLD 210544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR DIMINISHING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

500MB LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. SBCAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY LOW...ONLY AROUND 10KTS.
AS A RESULT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC DOES SHOW SOME NONZERO VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF LANDSPOUT THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF INITIATION. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR ADVISORY/ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS BOTH DAYS.
MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE LIGHTER ON SURFACE-H85 LAYER WINDS ON
TUESDAY...AND HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED QUICKER WITH COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY WED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR...HOWEVER MENTION OF
WINDY CONDITIONS KEPT IN FORECAST.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS...DRY LINE SHOULD STILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS LLJ AND THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF
DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER TD VALUES
INTO THE WEST...AND AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS BY WED MORNING WE SHOULD
SE A WE DEFINED DRY LINE DEVELOP OVER OUR CWA...POSSIBLY BACKING TO
THE WEST IF SURFACE LOW ENDS UP BEING STRONGER. SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR WIND/HAIL FOR
THREATS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WHERE NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW
DECENT SHEER/INSTABILITY. POSITION OF DRY LINE BOTH DAYS WILL BE
CRITICAL AND TIMING OF COLD FRONT WED IS ALSO A COMPLICATION. I WENT
AHEAD AND RAISE POPS WED AFTERNOON IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE DIDNT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD HELP LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
THU/FRI WITH MODELS CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SEASONAL TEMPS. BY NEXT
WEEKEND THERE IS INCREASING RUN-RUN SPREAD HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF/GFS
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN US MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH COULD BRINGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (AND SEVERE POSSIBILITY) BACK TO OUR CWA. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 06Z WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AFTER 10Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING WITH THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

DEPENDING ON TIMING OF DRY LINE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
WE COULD SE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RH/WIND WITHIN RFW CRITERIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 3HR REQUIREMENT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RFW CONDITIONS ARE ON WED AND THURSDAY...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS ESPECIALLY LOW ON SURFACE PATTERN/DRY LINE POSITION
ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THINGS AS WE GET
CLOSER...BUT WHILE IT SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL ULTIMATELY NEED A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR PART OF OUR CWA WED/THU...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW RIGHT NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...DR








000
FXUS63 KGLD 210308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
908 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR DIMINISHING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

500MB LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. SBCAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY LOW...ONLY AROUND 10KTS.
AS A RESULT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC DOES SHOW SOME NONZERO VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF LANDSPOUT THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF INITIATION. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR ADVISORY/ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS BOTH DAYS.
MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE LIGHTER ON SURFACE-H85 LAYER WINDS ON
TUESDAY...AND HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED QUICKER WITH COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY WED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR...HOWEVER MENTION OF
WINDY CONDITIONS KEPT IN FORECAST.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS...DRY LINE SHOULD STILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS LLJ AND THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF
DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER TD VALUES
INTO THE WEST...AND AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS BY WED MORNING WE SHOULD
SE A WE DEFINED DRY LINE DEVELOP OVER OUR CWA...POSSIBLY BACKING TO
THE WEST IF SURFACE LOW ENDS UP BEING STRONGER. SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR WIND/HAIL FOR
THREATS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WHERE NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW
DECENT SHEER/INSTABILITY. POSITION OF DRY LINE BOTH DAYS WILL BE
CRITICAL AND TIMING OF COLD FRONT WED IS ALSO A COMPLICATION. I WENT
AHEAD AND RAISE POPS WED AFTERNOON IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE DIDNT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD HELP LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
THU/FRI WITH MODELS CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SEASONAL TEMPS. BY NEXT
WEEKEND THERE IS INCREASING RUN-RUN SPREAD HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF/GFS
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN US MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH COULD BRINGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (AND SEVERE POSSIBILITY) BACK TO OUR CWA. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH TERMINALS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
WESTWARD TOWARD KGLD AND SHOULD ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE 01Z. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. RADAR INDICATES A DOWNWARD TREND OF MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER FURTHER EAST AND AT THIS TIME
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT EITHER TERMINAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND A SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
A GRADUAL VEERING TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

DEPENDING ON TIMING OF DRY LINE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
WE COULD SE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RH/WIND WITHIN RFW CRITERIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 3HR REQUIREMENT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RFW CONDITIONS ARE ON WED AND THURSDAY...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS ESPECIALLY LOW ON SURFACE PATTERN/DRY LINE POSITION
ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THINGS AS WE GET
CLOSER...BUT WHILE IT SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL ULTIMATELY NEED A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR PART OF OUR CWA WED/THU...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW RIGHT NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR








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