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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211742
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCT FOR REMOVAL OF MENTION OF MORNING
FOG...AND CLRING OF CWA OF LOW CLDS. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT MSUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP IN SPOTS. AREAS THIS MORNING THAT DID NOT SEE
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR TO FORECASTED
HIGHS...WHILE THOSE LOCALES IN THE FOG/CLOUD COVERAGE ARE
LAGGING BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT WITH MAINLY FULL SUNSHINE NOW IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INCREASE IN TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED
NUMBERS WILL OCCUR. HAVE INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN AREAS ALREADY
CLOSE TO FORECASTED NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 08Z WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. AFTER 08Z...MVFR FOG THRU 12Z-
13Z WITH VSBY DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES. FROM 12Z-13Z VCSH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SCT050 SCT-BKN100. WINDS SOUTHERLY 15-25KTS
DECREASING TO NEAR 10KTS AND SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO MORE SSW BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ADJUST
WORDING IN GOING FORECAST. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SEEN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYTIME HEATING
FINALLY AFFECTING THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG/PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOW WITH BREAK
IN CLD/FOG DECK...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ADJUST
WORDING IN GOING FORECAST. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SEEN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYTIME HEATING
FINALLY AFFECTING THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG/PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOW WITH BREAK
IN CLD/FOG DECK...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ADJUST
WORDING IN GOING FORECAST. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SEEN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYTIME HEATING
FINALLY AFFECTING THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG/PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOW WITH BREAK
IN CLD/FOG DECK...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ADJUST
WORDING IN GOING FORECAST. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SEEN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYTIME HEATING
FINALLY AFFECTING THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG/PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOW WITH BREAK
IN CLD/FOG DECK...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210921
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO KGLD LATE TONIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT
KGLD AROUND 11Z WITH MVFR STRATUS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOG/IFR CIGS
TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATER
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 210921
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO KGLD LATE TONIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT
KGLD AROUND 11Z WITH MVFR STRATUS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOG/IFR CIGS
TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATER
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210510
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  OVERNIGHT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...CAUSING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP.  THE FOG/STRATUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOCATIONS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AROUND SUNRISE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNRISE THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.  HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES
EASTWARD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER ON STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...SO LATEST RUNS WHICH
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF OF PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...NOT READY TO GREATLY LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL SCALING BACK APPEARS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE H5
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO KGLD LATE TONIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT
KGLD AROUND 11Z WITH MVFR STRATUS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOG/IFR CIGS
TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATER
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210510
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  OVERNIGHT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...CAUSING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP.  THE FOG/STRATUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOCATIONS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AROUND SUNRISE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNRISE THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.  HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES
EASTWARD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER ON STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...SO LATEST RUNS WHICH
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF OF PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...NOT READY TO GREATLY LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL SCALING BACK APPEARS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE H5
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO KGLD LATE TONIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT
KGLD AROUND 11Z WITH MVFR STRATUS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOG/IFR CIGS
TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATER
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 202352
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  OVERNIGHT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...CAUSING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP.  THE FOG/STRATUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOCATIONS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AROUND SUNRISE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNRISE THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.  HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES
EASTWARD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER ON STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...SO LATEST RUNS WHICH
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF OF PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...NOT READY TO GREATLY LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL SCALING BACK APPEARS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE H5
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE OMA/MKC AREAS WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE KGLD SITE LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING AT KGLD BY AROUND 12Z. STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOG/IFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DLF





000
FXUS63 KGLD 202352
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  OVERNIGHT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...CAUSING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP.  THE FOG/STRATUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOCATIONS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AROUND SUNRISE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNRISE THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.  HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES
EASTWARD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER ON STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...SO LATEST RUNS WHICH
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF OF PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...NOT READY TO GREATLY LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL SCALING BACK APPEARS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE H5
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE OMA/MKC AREAS WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE KGLD SITE LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING AT KGLD BY AROUND 12Z. STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOG/IFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 202055
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  OVERNIGHT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...CAUSING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP.  THE FOG/STRATUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOCATIONS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AROUND SUNRISE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNRISE THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.  HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES
EASTWARD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER ON STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...SO LATEST RUNS WHICH
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF OF PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...NOT READY TO GREATLY LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL SCALING BACK APPEARS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE H5
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION FAIRLY LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE FOR
THE TAFS WILL BE THE ONSET OF FOG/STRATUS FOR KGLD LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FOG/STRATUS
WILL MOVE EAST FROM COLORADO OVER THE SITE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING BUT THE STRATUS WILL LINGER UNTIL
ALMOST 18Z. KMCK MAY HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING BUT
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 201740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS WERE WEST AT 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE
DISTURBANCE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER CHANGE TO NOTE TODAY IS
THAT A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS LEADS TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES...THINK THAT THIS SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADS TO FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. ACCORDING TO
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...THE MAIN FOG THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER INTO EASTERN COLORADO. FOR LOCATIONS MOST
FAVORABLE...INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG MENTION WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION
SURROUNDING. HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE FOG/STRATUS MAKES IT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS MAY ONLY REACH COLBY AND
OAKLEY AS THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT.

FOR TOMORROW...FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRATUS REMAINS WELL INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A HIGH TEMP FORECAST BUST.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND
RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE DUE TO EXPECTED STRATUS. THE MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS IDEA BEST SO RELIED ON THIS
GUIDANCE FOR FOG/STRATUS SCENARIO.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A WEAK...LEAD
DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS WEST AND HIGHEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE EAST. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
APPEARS POSSIBLE EAST OF A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. THIS THREAT MAY BE ELIMINATED
BY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHALL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. MUCAPE AROUND 600-800 J/KG...850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD FORM
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND HEAD EAST. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO POPS
TOO LONG AS ITS POSSIBLE ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS TO EAST BY
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED IS MORE PERSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESIDE
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS SO POPS
WILL BE NIL.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE FOR
THE TAFS WILL BE THE ONSET OF FOG/STRATUS FOR KGLD LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FOG/STRATUS
WILL MOVE EAST FROM COLORADO OVER THE SITE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING BUT THE STRATUS WILL LINGER UNTIL
ALMOST 18Z. KMCK MAY HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING BUT
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 201740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS WERE WEST AT 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE
DISTURBANCE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER CHANGE TO NOTE TODAY IS
THAT A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS LEADS TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES...THINK THAT THIS SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADS TO FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. ACCORDING TO
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...THE MAIN FOG THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER INTO EASTERN COLORADO. FOR LOCATIONS MOST
FAVORABLE...INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG MENTION WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION
SURROUNDING. HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE FOG/STRATUS MAKES IT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS MAY ONLY REACH COLBY AND
OAKLEY AS THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT.

FOR TOMORROW...FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRATUS REMAINS WELL INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A HIGH TEMP FORECAST BUST.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND
RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE DUE TO EXPECTED STRATUS. THE MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS IDEA BEST SO RELIED ON THIS
GUIDANCE FOR FOG/STRATUS SCENARIO.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A WEAK...LEAD
DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS WEST AND HIGHEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE EAST. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
APPEARS POSSIBLE EAST OF A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. THIS THREAT MAY BE ELIMINATED
BY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHALL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. MUCAPE AROUND 600-800 J/KG...850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD FORM
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND HEAD EAST. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO POPS
TOO LONG AS ITS POSSIBLE ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS TO EAST BY
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED IS MORE PERSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESIDE
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS SO POPS
WILL BE NIL.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE FOR
THE TAFS WILL BE THE ONSET OF FOG/STRATUS FOR KGLD LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FOG/STRATUS
WILL MOVE EAST FROM COLORADO OVER THE SITE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING BUT THE STRATUS WILL LINGER UNTIL
ALMOST 18Z. KMCK MAY HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING BUT
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 201118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS WERE WEST AT 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE
DISTURBANCE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER CHANGE TO NOTE TODAY IS
THAT A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS LEADS TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES...THINK THAT THIS SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADS TO FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. ACCORDING TO
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...THE MAIN FOG THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER INTO EASTERN COLORADO. FOR LOCATIONS MOST
FAVORABLE...INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG MENTION WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION
SURROUNDING. HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE FOG/STRATUS MAKES IT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS MAY ONLY REACH COLBY AND
OAKLEY AS THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT.

FOR TOMORROW...FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRATUS REMAINS WELL INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A HIGH TEMP FORECAST BUST.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND
RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE DUE TO EXPECTED STRATUS. THE MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS IDEA BEST SO RELIED ON THIS
GUIDANCE FOR FOG/STRATUS SCENARIO.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A WEAK...LEAD
DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS WEST AND HIGHEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE EAST. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
APPEARS POSSIBLE EAST OF A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. THIS THREAT MAY BE ELIMINATED
BY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHALL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. MUCAPE AROUND 600-800 J/KG...850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD FORM
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND HEAD EAST. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO POPS
TOO LONG AS ITS POSSIBLE ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS TO EAST BY
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED IS MORE PERSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESIDE
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS SO POPS
WILL BE NIL.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
UNTIL STRATUS/FOG MOVES IN AFTER 09Z TOMORROW. LIGHT WEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BACK SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULL MOISTURE IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE STRATUS/FOG
HAS DEVELOPED. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT OVER KGLD
AND EVENTUALLY KMCK TOMORROW MORNING. PLACED A FIRST GUESS INTO
TAF FOR STRATUS/FOG. KGLD LIKELY IMPACTED BY END OF TAF PERIOD.
KMCK MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS UNTIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS EXISTS...DOWN TO LIFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 201118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS WERE WEST AT 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE
DISTURBANCE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER CHANGE TO NOTE TODAY IS
THAT A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS LEADS TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES...THINK THAT THIS SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADS TO FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. ACCORDING TO
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...THE MAIN FOG THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER INTO EASTERN COLORADO. FOR LOCATIONS MOST
FAVORABLE...INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG MENTION WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION
SURROUNDING. HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE FOG/STRATUS MAKES IT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS MAY ONLY REACH COLBY AND
OAKLEY AS THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT.

FOR TOMORROW...FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRATUS REMAINS WELL INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A HIGH TEMP FORECAST BUST.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND
RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE DUE TO EXPECTED STRATUS. THE MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS IDEA BEST SO RELIED ON THIS
GUIDANCE FOR FOG/STRATUS SCENARIO.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A WEAK...LEAD
DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS WEST AND HIGHEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE EAST. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
APPEARS POSSIBLE EAST OF A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. THIS THREAT MAY BE ELIMINATED
BY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHALL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. MUCAPE AROUND 600-800 J/KG...850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD FORM
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND HEAD EAST. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO POPS
TOO LONG AS ITS POSSIBLE ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS TO EAST BY
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED IS MORE PERSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESIDE
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS SO POPS
WILL BE NIL.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
UNTIL STRATUS/FOG MOVES IN AFTER 09Z TOMORROW. LIGHT WEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BACK SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULL MOISTURE IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE STRATUS/FOG
HAS DEVELOPED. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT OVER KGLD
AND EVENTUALLY KMCK TOMORROW MORNING. PLACED A FIRST GUESS INTO
TAF FOR STRATUS/FOG. KGLD LIKELY IMPACTED BY END OF TAF PERIOD.
KMCK MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS UNTIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS EXISTS...DOWN TO LIFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 200846
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS WERE WEST AT 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE
DISTURBANCE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER CHANGE TO NOTE TODAY IS
THAT A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS LEADS TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES...THINK THAT THIS SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADS TO FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. ACCORDING TO
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...THE MAIN FOG THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER INTO EASTERN COLORADO. FOR LOCATIONS MOST
FAVORABLE...INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG MENTION WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION
SURROUNDING. HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE FOG/STRATUS MAKES IT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS MAY ONLY REACH COLBY AND
OAKLEY AS THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT.

FOR TOMORROW...FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRATUS REMAINS WELL INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A HIGH TEMP FORECAST BUST.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND
RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE DUE TO EXPECTED STRATUS. THE MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS IDEA BEST SO RELIED ON THIS
GUIDANCE FOR FOG/STRATUS SCENARIO.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A WEAK...LEAD
DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS WEST AND HIGHEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE EAST. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
APPEARS POSSIBLE EAST OF A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. THIS THREAT MAY BE ELIMINATED
BY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHALL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. MUCAPE AROUND 600-800 J/KG...850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD FORM
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND HEAD EAST. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO POPS
TOO LONG AS ITS POSSIBLE ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS TO EAST BY
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED IS MORE PERSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESIDE
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS SO POPS
WILL BE NIL.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A CLEAR SKY. VRB
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 17Z BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8-10KTS FROM 18Z
THROUGH 04Z. AFTER 04Z WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AT 6-10KTS. A FEW
GUSTS TO 16KTS POSSIBLE IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 200846
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS WERE WEST AT 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE
DISTURBANCE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER CHANGE TO NOTE TODAY IS
THAT A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS LEADS TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND THE BEGINNING OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES...THINK THAT THIS SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADS TO FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. ACCORDING TO
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...THE MAIN FOG THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER INTO EASTERN COLORADO. FOR LOCATIONS MOST
FAVORABLE...INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG MENTION WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION
SURROUNDING. HARD TO TELL HOW FAR EAST THE FOG/STRATUS MAKES IT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS MAY ONLY REACH COLBY AND
OAKLEY AS THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT.

FOR TOMORROW...FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRATUS REMAINS WELL INTO AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A HIGH TEMP FORECAST BUST.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND
RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE DUE TO EXPECTED STRATUS. THE MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS IDEA BEST SO RELIED ON THIS
GUIDANCE FOR FOG/STRATUS SCENARIO.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A WEAK...LEAD
DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS WEST AND HIGHEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES TO THE EAST. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
APPEARS POSSIBLE EAST OF A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. THIS THREAT MAY BE ELIMINATED
BY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHALL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. MUCAPE AROUND 600-800 J/KG...850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD FORM
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND HEAD EAST. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO POPS
TOO LONG AS ITS POSSIBLE ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS TO EAST BY
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED IS MORE PERSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESIDE
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS SO POPS
WILL BE NIL.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A CLEAR SKY. VRB
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 17Z BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8-10KTS FROM 18Z
THROUGH 04Z. AFTER 04Z WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AT 6-10KTS. A FEW
GUSTS TO 16KTS POSSIBLE IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 200430
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. WINDS TURN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OVER HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN
40-45 AND HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL OVER THE WEST HALF TO
THIRD OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY WORKING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...CAUSING GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. MIXING RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND THETA- E LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LIFT AND MIXING
RATIOS WILL BE HIGHEST.

FOR WEDNEDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE MINIMAL CAPE AVAILABLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  WITH THE BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY THERE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP. CHANCES TO 70%.  DURING THE
NIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  DUE TO HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND THE
STRONGEST LIFT BEING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA...ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE THERE.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A CLEAR SKY. VRB
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 17Z BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8-10KTS FROM 18Z
THROUGH 04Z. AFTER 04Z WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AT 6-10KTS. A FEW
GUSTS TO 16KTS POSSIBLE IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 200430
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. WINDS TURN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OVER HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN
40-45 AND HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL OVER THE WEST HALF TO
THIRD OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY WORKING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...CAUSING GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. MIXING RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND THETA- E LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LIFT AND MIXING
RATIOS WILL BE HIGHEST.

FOR WEDNEDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE MINIMAL CAPE AVAILABLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  WITH THE BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY THERE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP. CHANCES TO 70%.  DURING THE
NIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  DUE TO HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND THE
STRONGEST LIFT BEING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA...ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE THERE.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A CLEAR SKY. VRB
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 17Z BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8-10KTS FROM 18Z
THROUGH 04Z. AFTER 04Z WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AT 6-10KTS. A FEW
GUSTS TO 16KTS POSSIBLE IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 200430
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. WINDS TURN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OVER HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN
40-45 AND HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL OVER THE WEST HALF TO
THIRD OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY WORKING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...CAUSING GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. MIXING RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND THETA- E LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LIFT AND MIXING
RATIOS WILL BE HIGHEST.

FOR WEDNEDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE MINIMAL CAPE AVAILABLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  WITH THE BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY THERE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP. CHANCES TO 70%.  DURING THE
NIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  DUE TO HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND THE
STRONGEST LIFT BEING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA...ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE THERE.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A CLEAR SKY. VRB
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 17Z BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8-10KTS FROM 18Z
THROUGH 04Z. AFTER 04Z WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AT 6-10KTS. A FEW
GUSTS TO 16KTS POSSIBLE IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 192200
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. WINDS TURN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OVER HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN
40-45 AND HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL OVER THE WEST HALF TO
THIRD OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY WORKING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...CAUSING GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. MIXING RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND THETA- E LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LIFT AND MIXING
RATIOS WILL BE HIGHEST.

FOR WEDNEDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE MINIMAL CAPE AVAILABLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  WITH THE BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY THERE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP. CHANCES TO 70%.  DURING THE
NIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  DUE TO HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND THE
STRONGEST LIFT BEING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA...ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE THERE.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY. VRB WINDS 5KTS OR LESS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8-10KTS FROM
18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 192200
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. WINDS TURN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OVER HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN
40-45 AND HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL OVER THE WEST HALF TO
THIRD OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY WORKING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...CAUSING GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. MIXING RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND THETA- E LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LIFT AND MIXING
RATIOS WILL BE HIGHEST.

FOR WEDNEDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE MINIMAL CAPE AVAILABLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  WITH THE BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY THERE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP. CHANCES TO 70%.  DURING THE
NIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  DUE TO HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND THE
STRONGEST LIFT BEING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA...ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE THERE.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY. VRB WINDS 5KTS OR LESS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8-10KTS FROM
18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 192029
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. WINDS TURN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OVER HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN
40-45 AND HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL POOL OVER THE WEST HALF TO
THIRD OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY WORKING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...CAUSING GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. MIXING RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND THETA- E LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LIFT AND MIXING
RATIOS WILL BE HIGHEST.


FOR WEDNEDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE MINIMAL CAPE AVAILABLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  WITH THE BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY THERE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP. CHANCES TO 70%.  DURING THE
NIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  DUE TO HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND THE
STRONGEST LIFT BEING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA...ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE THERE.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 191942
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
142 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. WINDS TURN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OVER HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN
40-45 AND HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS A
SOLID BET. IN FACT...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITHIN 850 MB
TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND 00Z MEX/ECE GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING. THE LATEST TREND WAS FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MEANING A QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY. THIS NO LONGER LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE AS A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
FORCE ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB AND A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MEAGER BUT COULDNT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO.

ONE OF THE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED IS OVERALL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES...
STRONGER 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG HIGHER THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND UP 600-900 J/KG HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO THINK THE GFS IS
TOO AMBITIOUS WITH TEMPS/INSTABILITY. KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 191942
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
142 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. WINDS TURN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OVER HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN
40-45 AND HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS A
SOLID BET. IN FACT...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITHIN 850 MB
TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND 00Z MEX/ECE GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING. THE LATEST TREND WAS FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MEANING A QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY. THIS NO LONGER LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE AS A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
FORCE ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB AND A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MEAGER BUT COULDNT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO.

ONE OF THE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED IS OVERALL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES...
STRONGER 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG HIGHER THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND UP 600-900 J/KG HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO THINK THE GFS IS
TOO AMBITIOUS WITH TEMPS/INSTABILITY. KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 191903
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
103 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE FA DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE FA.  THE HRRR
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY STRATUS OVER THE AREA. PLAN TO MONITOR AND
MAKE FINAL DECISION PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS A
SOLID BET. IN FACT...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITHIN 850 MB
TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND 00Z MEX/ECE GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING. THE LATEST TREND WAS FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MEANING A QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY. THIS NO LONGER LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE AS A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
FORCE ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB AND A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MEAGER BUT COULDNT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO.

ONE OF THE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED IS OVERALL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES...
STRONGER 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG HIGHER THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND UP 600-900 J/KG HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO THINK THE GFS IS
TOO AMBITIOUS WITH TEMPS/INSTABILITY. KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 191903
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
103 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE FA DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE FA.  THE HRRR
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY STRATUS OVER THE AREA. PLAN TO MONITOR AND
MAKE FINAL DECISION PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS A
SOLID BET. IN FACT...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITHIN 850 MB
TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND 00Z MEX/ECE GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING. THE LATEST TREND WAS FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MEANING A QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY. THIS NO LONGER LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE AS A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
FORCE ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB AND A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MEAGER BUT COULDNT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO.

ONE OF THE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED IS OVERALL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES...
STRONGER 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG HIGHER THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND UP 600-900 J/KG HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO THINK THE GFS IS
TOO AMBITIOUS WITH TEMPS/INSTABILITY. KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 191056
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE FA DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE FA.  THE HRRR
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY STRATUS OVER THE AREA. PLAN TO MONITOR AND
MAKE FINAL DECISION PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS A
SOLID BET. IN FACT...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITHIN 850 MB
TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND 00Z MEX/ECE GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING. THE LATEST TREND WAS FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MEANING A QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY. THIS NO LONGER LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE AS A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
FORCE ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB AND A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MEAGER BUT COULDNT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO.

ONE OF THE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED IS OVERALL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES...
STRONGER 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG HIGHER THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND UP 600-900 J/KG HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO THINK THE GFS IS
TOO AMBITIOUS WITH TEMPS/INSTABILITY. KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT AND THEN TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 191056
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE FA DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE FA.  THE HRRR
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY STRATUS OVER THE AREA. PLAN TO MONITOR AND
MAKE FINAL DECISION PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS A
SOLID BET. IN FACT...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITHIN 850 MB
TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND 00Z MEX/ECE GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING. THE LATEST TREND WAS FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MEANING A QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY. THIS NO LONGER LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE AS A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
FORCE ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB AND A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MEAGER BUT COULDNT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO.

ONE OF THE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED IS OVERALL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES...
STRONGER 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG HIGHER THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND UP 600-900 J/KG HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO THINK THE GFS IS
TOO AMBITIOUS WITH TEMPS/INSTABILITY. KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT AND THEN TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS





000
FXUS63 KGLD 190825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE FA DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE FA.  THE HRRR
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY STRATUS OVER THE AREA. PLAN TO MONITOR AND
MAKE FINAL DECISION PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS A
SOLID BET. IN FACT...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITHIN 850 MB
TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND 00Z MEX/ECE GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING. THE LATEST TREND WAS FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MEANING A QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY. THIS NO LONGER LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE AS A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
FORCE ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB AND A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MEAGER BUT COULDNT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO.

ONE OF THE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED IS OVERALL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES...
STRONGER 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG HIGHER THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND UP 600-900 J/KG HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO THINK THE GFS IS
TOO AMBITIOUS WITH TEMPS/INSTABILITY. KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND
10KTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z AND FINALLY
NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BY 21Z. MAY SEE A PERIOD LGT/VRB WINDS IN THE
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER LEVELS. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE
10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR SCENARIO
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 07KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH 01Z LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 05KTS THEN
BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER
LEVELS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 190821
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE FA DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE FA.  THE HRRR
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY STRATUS OVER THE AREA. PLAN TO MONITOR AND
MAKE FINAL DECISION PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND
10KTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z AND FINALLY
NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BY 21Z. MAY SEE A PERIOD LGT/VRB WINDS IN THE
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER LEVELS. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE
10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR SCENARIO
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 07KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH 01Z LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 05KTS THEN
BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER
LEVELS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 190821
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE FA DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE FA.  THE HRRR
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY STRATUS OVER THE AREA. PLAN TO MONITOR AND
MAKE FINAL DECISION PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND
10KTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z AND FINALLY
NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BY 21Z. MAY SEE A PERIOD LGT/VRB WINDS IN THE
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER LEVELS. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE
10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR SCENARIO
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 07KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH 01Z LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 05KTS THEN
BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER
LEVELS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 190400
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND
10KTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z AND FINALLY
NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BY 21Z. MAY SEE A PERIOD LGT/VRB WINDS IN THE
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER LEVELS. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE
10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR SCENARIO
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 07KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH 01Z LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 05KTS THEN
BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER
LEVELS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 190400
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND
10KTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z AND FINALLY
NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BY 21Z. MAY SEE A PERIOD LGT/VRB WINDS IN THE
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER LEVELS. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE
10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR SCENARIO
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 07KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH 01Z LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 05KTS THEN
BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER
LEVELS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 190400
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND
10KTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z AND FINALLY
NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BY 21Z. MAY SEE A PERIOD LGT/VRB WINDS IN THE
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER LEVELS. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE
10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR SCENARIO
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 07KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH 01Z LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 05KTS THEN
BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER
LEVELS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 182200
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND 10KTS THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z VEERING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 21Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS
SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 08KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND EXPECTED. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 182200
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND 10KTS THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z VEERING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 21Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS
SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 08KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND EXPECTED. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 182033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY
EVENING. TOWARD SUNRISE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH BEHIND IT DURING THE MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 182033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY
EVENING. TOWARD SUNRISE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH BEHIND IT DURING THE MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 182006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INCLUDES THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...A PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THIS PERIOD IS THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY SHALL PRIME
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THOSE NORMALS ARE
EASILY EXCEEDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EXPECTED.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY TRAVERSES THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BOUT OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AN INTRIGUING LOOK TO IT AS THERE ARE FAVORABLE HEIGHT
FALLS...AN INCREASE IN 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS...MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER (ACCORDING TO THE GFS) UP TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THESE FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS REPRESENT AN ATMOSPHERE 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN TERMS OF MOISTURE CONTENT. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...DO NOT THINK FLOODING WOULD BE A
CONCERN BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE WIND
SHEAR/INSTABILITY/SHORTWAVE PARAMETERS INDICATE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WINDOW FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A STRONG/SEVERE MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER BUT IT IS A SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BASICALLY GUARANTEED WITH NO INDICATIONS OF
A STRONG FALL COLD FRONT MOVING IN. PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER
RESUMES THURSDAY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY
EVENING. TOWARD SUNRISE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH BEHIND IT DURING THE MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 182006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INCLUDES THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...A PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THIS PERIOD IS THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY SHALL PRIME
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THOSE NORMALS ARE
EASILY EXCEEDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EXPECTED.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY TRAVERSES THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BOUT OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AN INTRIGUING LOOK TO IT AS THERE ARE FAVORABLE HEIGHT
FALLS...AN INCREASE IN 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS...MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER (ACCORDING TO THE GFS) UP TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THESE FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS REPRESENT AN ATMOSPHERE 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN TERMS OF MOISTURE CONTENT. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...DO NOT THINK FLOODING WOULD BE A
CONCERN BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE WIND
SHEAR/INSTABILITY/SHORTWAVE PARAMETERS INDICATE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WINDOW FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A STRONG/SEVERE MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER BUT IT IS A SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BASICALLY GUARANTEED WITH NO INDICATIONS OF
A STRONG FALL COLD FRONT MOVING IN. PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER
RESUMES THURSDAY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY
EVENING. TOWARD SUNRISE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH BEHIND IT DURING THE MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL




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