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000
FXUS63 KGLD 060006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
606 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO. MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/LOSS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT/NOT EXPECTING
ANY HYDRO ISSUES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS RESULTING IN ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOISTURE
WILL HOWEVER REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND WITH AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT REDEVELOPING THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT. THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. 500MB JET MAX
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 50KTS. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK...BUT
GFS SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WHICH GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE QPF. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS FFG VALUES MAY BE LOWER AND WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THROWN SOME DOUBT ON THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY PERIOD. IT KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE AREA
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT OUT INTO CANADA. CUT OFF
LOWS CAN BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO NOT GOING TO DISMISS THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP
THAT DAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS/VIS.
AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINFALL. AM THINKING ONCE CEILINGS/VIS DROP THIS
EVENING THEY SHOULD REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NOT IMPROVE
UNTIL THE MORNING. TOMORROW SCATTERED RAINFALL DOES LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE...WITH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT OCCURRED FOR TODAY
TOMORROW.

AS A SIDE NOTE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ONSET OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK. BASED TIMING OFF OF WHEN LOWER
CEILINGS MOVED THROUGH SITES TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 060006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
606 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO. MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/LOSS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT/NOT EXPECTING
ANY HYDRO ISSUES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS RESULTING IN ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOISTURE
WILL HOWEVER REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND WITH AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT REDEVELOPING THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT. THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. 500MB JET MAX
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 50KTS. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK...BUT
GFS SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WHICH GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE QPF. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS FFG VALUES MAY BE LOWER AND WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THROWN SOME DOUBT ON THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY PERIOD. IT KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE AREA
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT OUT INTO CANADA. CUT OFF
LOWS CAN BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO NOT GOING TO DISMISS THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP
THAT DAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS/VIS.
AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINFALL. AM THINKING ONCE CEILINGS/VIS DROP THIS
EVENING THEY SHOULD REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NOT IMPROVE
UNTIL THE MORNING. TOMORROW SCATTERED RAINFALL DOES LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE...WITH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT OCCURRED FOR TODAY
TOMORROW.

AS A SIDE NOTE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ONSET OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK. BASED TIMING OFF OF WHEN LOWER
CEILINGS MOVED THROUGH SITES TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 060006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
606 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO. MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/LOSS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT/NOT EXPECTING
ANY HYDRO ISSUES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS RESULTING IN ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOISTURE
WILL HOWEVER REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND WITH AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT REDEVELOPING THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT. THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. 500MB JET MAX
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 50KTS. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK...BUT
GFS SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WHICH GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE QPF. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS FFG VALUES MAY BE LOWER AND WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THROWN SOME DOUBT ON THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY PERIOD. IT KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE AREA
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT OUT INTO CANADA. CUT OFF
LOWS CAN BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO NOT GOING TO DISMISS THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP
THAT DAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS/VIS.
AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINFALL. AM THINKING ONCE CEILINGS/VIS DROP THIS
EVENING THEY SHOULD REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NOT IMPROVE
UNTIL THE MORNING. TOMORROW SCATTERED RAINFALL DOES LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE...WITH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT OCCURRED FOR TODAY
TOMORROW.

AS A SIDE NOTE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ONSET OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK. BASED TIMING OFF OF WHEN LOWER
CEILINGS MOVED THROUGH SITES TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 051950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO. MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/LOSS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT/NOT EXPECTING
ANY HYDRO ISSUES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS RESULTING IN ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOISTURE
WILL HOWEVER REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND WITH AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT REDEVELOPING THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT. THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. 500MB JET MAX
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 50KTS. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK...BUT
GFS SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WHICH GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE QPF. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS FFG VALUES MAY BE LOWER AND WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THROWN SOME DOUBT ON THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY PERIOD. IT KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE AREA
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT OUT INTO CANADA. CUT OFF
LOWS CAN BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO NOT GOING TO DISMISS THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP
THAT DAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO. MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/LOSS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT/NOT EXPECTING
ANY HYDRO ISSUES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS RESULTING IN ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOISTURE
WILL HOWEVER REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND WITH AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT REDEVELOPING THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT. THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. 500MB JET MAX
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 50KTS. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK...BUT
GFS SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WHICH GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE QPF. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS FFG VALUES MAY BE LOWER AND WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THROWN SOME DOUBT ON THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY PERIOD. IT KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE AREA
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT OUT INTO CANADA. CUT OFF
LOWS CAN BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO NOT GOING TO DISMISS THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP
THAT DAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 051850
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 051850
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051850
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 051850
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051630
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TO LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS LATE TODAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH...DRYER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
LOW AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051630
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TO LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS LATE TODAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH...DRYER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
LOW AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 051157
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TO LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS LATE TODAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH...DRYER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
LOW AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND AT
MCK AND GLD THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VLIFR DUE TO BOTH LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO
IFR AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ABOUT 22Z AND 05Z. AFTER 05Z...AS WINDS DIMINISH SOME AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...EXPECT A
RETURN OF LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 051157
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TO LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS LATE TODAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH...DRYER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
LOW AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND AT
MCK AND GLD THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VLIFR DUE TO BOTH LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO
IFR AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ABOUT 22Z AND 05Z. AFTER 05Z...AS WINDS DIMINISH SOME AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...EXPECT A
RETURN OF LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051157
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TO LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS LATE TODAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH...DRYER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
LOW AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND AT
MCK AND GLD THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VLIFR DUE TO BOTH LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO
IFR AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ABOUT 22Z AND 05Z. AFTER 05Z...AS WINDS DIMINISH SOME AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...EXPECT A
RETURN OF LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 050959
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
359 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TO LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS LATE TODAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH...DRYER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
LOW AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
AT KMCK TO REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL CLOSE TO MID MORNING. MEANWHILE
AT KGLD CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED FROM IFR TO VFR OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. EXPECT IFR CEILING IN THE NEXT HOUR. FOR BOTH SITES CEILINGS
SHOULD INCREASE TO MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING...THEN FALL TO IFR
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KMCK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THERE MAY
BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR STORMS TO MOVE NEAR THE SITE...BUT WILL
WAIT FOR LATER TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS.

KGLD SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE TONIGHT. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE.

EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 050959
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
359 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TO LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS LATE TODAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH...DRYER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
LOW AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
AT KMCK TO REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL CLOSE TO MID MORNING. MEANWHILE
AT KGLD CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED FROM IFR TO VFR OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. EXPECT IFR CEILING IN THE NEXT HOUR. FOR BOTH SITES CEILINGS
SHOULD INCREASE TO MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING...THEN FALL TO IFR
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KMCK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THERE MAY
BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR STORMS TO MOVE NEAR THE SITE...BUT WILL
WAIT FOR LATER TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS.

KGLD SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE TONIGHT. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE.

EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050828
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. WAS VERY CONFIDENT EARLIER THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME WEAKENING OVER THE EAST
PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THE LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.

LOOKING AT RUC THETA-E AT 850MB...THERE IS DRIER AIR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AM THINKING THIS IS WHY THE STORMS DIED
OVER THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EAST WHICH HAS HIGHER THETA-E AND
BETTER CAPE.

LOOKING SOUTHWARD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH IN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. LIFT DOES
DECLINE OVER THE EAST OVERNIGHT SO HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES TRENDING
ACCORDINGLY. DOES LOOK LIKE THE EAST HALF WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR PRESENT.

MEANWHILE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
BE NORTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
AT KMCK TO REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL CLOSE TO MID MORNING. MEANWHILE
AT KGLD CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED FROM IFR TO VFR OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. EXPECT IFR CEILING IN THE NEXT HOUR. FOR BOTH SITES CEILINGS
SHOULD INCREASE TO MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING...THEN FALL TO IFR
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KMCK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THERE MAY
BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR STORMS TO MOVE NEAR THE SITE...BUT WILL
WAIT FOR LATER TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS.

KGLD SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE TONIGHT. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE.

EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 050828
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. WAS VERY CONFIDENT EARLIER THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME WEAKENING OVER THE EAST
PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THE LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.

LOOKING AT RUC THETA-E AT 850MB...THERE IS DRIER AIR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AM THINKING THIS IS WHY THE STORMS DIED
OVER THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EAST WHICH HAS HIGHER THETA-E AND
BETTER CAPE.

LOOKING SOUTHWARD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH IN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. LIFT DOES
DECLINE OVER THE EAST OVERNIGHT SO HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES TRENDING
ACCORDINGLY. DOES LOOK LIKE THE EAST HALF WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR PRESENT.

MEANWHILE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
BE NORTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
AT KMCK TO REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL CLOSE TO MID MORNING. MEANWHILE
AT KGLD CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED FROM IFR TO VFR OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. EXPECT IFR CEILING IN THE NEXT HOUR. FOR BOTH SITES CEILINGS
SHOULD INCREASE TO MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING...THEN FALL TO IFR
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KMCK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THERE MAY
BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR STORMS TO MOVE NEAR THE SITE...BUT WILL
WAIT FOR LATER TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS.

KGLD SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE TONIGHT. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE.

EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050549
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1149 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. WAS VERY CONFIDENT EARLIER THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME WEAKENING OVER THE EAST
PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THE LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.

LOOKING AT RUC THETA-E AT 850MB...THERE IS DRIER AIR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AM THINKING THIS IS WHY THE STORMS DIED
OVER THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EAST WHICH HAS HIGHER THETA-E AND
BETTER CAPE.

LOOKING SOUTHWARD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH IN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. LIFT DOES
DECLINE OVER THE EAST OVERNIGHT SO HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES TRENDING
ACCORDINGLY. DOES LOOK LIKE THE EAST HALF WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR PRESENT.

MEANWHILE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
BE NORTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
AT KMCK TO REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL CLOSE TO MID MORNING. MEANWHILE
AT KGLD CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED FROM IFR TO VFR OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. EXPECT IFR CEILING IN THE NEXT HOUR. FOR BOTH SITES CEILINGS
SHOULD INCREASE TO MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING...THEN FALL TO IFR
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KMCK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THERE MAY
BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR STORMS TO MOVE NEAR THE SITE...BUT WILL
WAIT FOR LATER TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS.

KGLD SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE TONIGHT. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE.

EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050549
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1149 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. WAS VERY CONFIDENT EARLIER THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME WEAKENING OVER THE EAST
PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THE LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.

LOOKING AT RUC THETA-E AT 850MB...THERE IS DRIER AIR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AM THINKING THIS IS WHY THE STORMS DIED
OVER THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EAST WHICH HAS HIGHER THETA-E AND
BETTER CAPE.

LOOKING SOUTHWARD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH IN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. LIFT DOES
DECLINE OVER THE EAST OVERNIGHT SO HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES TRENDING
ACCORDINGLY. DOES LOOK LIKE THE EAST HALF WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR PRESENT.

MEANWHILE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
BE NORTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
AT KMCK TO REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL CLOSE TO MID MORNING. MEANWHILE
AT KGLD CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED FROM IFR TO VFR OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. EXPECT IFR CEILING IN THE NEXT HOUR. FOR BOTH SITES CEILINGS
SHOULD INCREASE TO MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING...THEN FALL TO IFR
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KMCK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THERE MAY
BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR STORMS TO MOVE NEAR THE SITE...BUT WILL
WAIT FOR LATER TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS.

KGLD SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE TONIGHT. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE.

EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 050430
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. WAS VERY CONFIDENT EARLIER THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME WEAKENING OVER THE EAST
PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THE LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.

LOOKING AT RUC THETA-E AT 850MB...THERE IS DRIER AIR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AM THINKING THIS IS WHY THE STORMS DIED
OVER THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EAST WHICH HAS HIGHER THETA-E AND
BETTER CAPE.

LOOKING SOUTHWARD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH IN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. LIFT DOES
DECLINE OVER THE EAST OVERNIGHT SO HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES TRENDING
ACCORDINGLY. DOES LOOK LIKE THE EAST HALF WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR PRESENT.

MEANWHILE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
BE NORTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAFS. CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS DUE
TO TIMING OF THE DIFFERENT WAVES OF RAINFALL...THE CEILING
HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE KGLD WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING RAINFALL THAN KMCK...ESPECIALLY
PROLONGED RAINFALL. BASED TIMING OF THE STORMS FOR BOTH SITES BY
TRACKING THE SPEED OF THE CURRENT STORMS. IF STORM MOVEMENT
CHANGES THAT WILL AFFECT THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.  BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND WAVE OF
STORMS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES WILL
DECLINE SOME BUT THEN IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. HAVE VC FOR KMCK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL STILL BE RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING THE
MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050430
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. WAS VERY CONFIDENT EARLIER THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME WEAKENING OVER THE EAST
PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THE LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.

LOOKING AT RUC THETA-E AT 850MB...THERE IS DRIER AIR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AM THINKING THIS IS WHY THE STORMS DIED
OVER THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EAST WHICH HAS HIGHER THETA-E AND
BETTER CAPE.

LOOKING SOUTHWARD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH IN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. LIFT DOES
DECLINE OVER THE EAST OVERNIGHT SO HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES TRENDING
ACCORDINGLY. DOES LOOK LIKE THE EAST HALF WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR PRESENT.

MEANWHILE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
BE NORTH OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAFS. CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS DUE
TO TIMING OF THE DIFFERENT WAVES OF RAINFALL...THE CEILING
HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE KGLD WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING RAINFALL THAN KMCK...ESPECIALLY
PROLONGED RAINFALL. BASED TIMING OF THE STORMS FOR BOTH SITES BY
TRACKING THE SPEED OF THE CURRENT STORMS. IF STORM MOVEMENT
CHANGES THAT WILL AFFECT THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.  BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND WAVE OF
STORMS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES WILL
DECLINE SOME BUT THEN IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. HAVE VC FOR KMCK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL STILL BE RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING THE
MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 050131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
731 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE TWO SEPARATE WAVES HAVE MERGED INTO ONE
OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CONSISTENT PLUME OF LIFT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD. AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD LIFT DECLINES OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.
HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING SOME AS A RESULT.

MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH WHETHER THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA OR MOVE NORTHWARD. AM MORE INCLINED TO
BELIEVE THE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SINCE EACH OF THESE WAVES ARE
ROTATING TO THE NORTH AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES...AM
EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...PRIMARILY WITH THE FIRST
WAVE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE TWO SEPARATE WAVES OF RAINFALL MERGING
INTO ONE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MERGE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS OVER THE
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE THE GENERAL TREND OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE
LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT PROLONGED
RAINFALL TONIGHT AS TWO DIFFERENT WAVES MOVE OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LESS THAN 20
MPH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...INSTABILITY DECLINES DURING THE
EARLY EVENING BUT THEN RETURNS OVERNIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY 25KTS WHICH IS BARELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAFS. CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS DUE
TO TIMING OF THE DIFFERENT WAVES OF RAINFALL...THE CEILING
HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE KGLD WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING RAINFALL THAN KMCK...ESPECIALLY
PROLONGED RAINFALL. BASED TIMING OF THE STORMS FOR BOTH SITES BY
TRACKING THE SPEED OF THE CURRENT STORMS. IF STORM MOVEMENT
CHANGES THAT WILL AFFECT THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.  BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND WAVE OF
STORMS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES WILL
DECLINE SOME BUT THEN IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. HAVE VC FOR KMCK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL STILL BE RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING THE
MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 050131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
731 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE TWO SEPARATE WAVES HAVE MERGED INTO ONE
OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CONSISTENT PLUME OF LIFT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD. AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD LIFT DECLINES OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.
HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING SOME AS A RESULT.

MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH WHETHER THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA OR MOVE NORTHWARD. AM MORE INCLINED TO
BELIEVE THE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SINCE EACH OF THESE WAVES ARE
ROTATING TO THE NORTH AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES...AM
EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...PRIMARILY WITH THE FIRST
WAVE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE TWO SEPARATE WAVES OF RAINFALL MERGING
INTO ONE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MERGE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS OVER THE
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE THE GENERAL TREND OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE
LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT PROLONGED
RAINFALL TONIGHT AS TWO DIFFERENT WAVES MOVE OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LESS THAN 20
MPH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...INSTABILITY DECLINES DURING THE
EARLY EVENING BUT THEN RETURNS OVERNIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY 25KTS WHICH IS BARELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAFS. CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS DUE
TO TIMING OF THE DIFFERENT WAVES OF RAINFALL...THE CEILING
HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE KGLD WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING RAINFALL THAN KMCK...ESPECIALLY
PROLONGED RAINFALL. BASED TIMING OF THE STORMS FOR BOTH SITES BY
TRACKING THE SPEED OF THE CURRENT STORMS. IF STORM MOVEMENT
CHANGES THAT WILL AFFECT THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.  BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND WAVE OF
STORMS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES WILL
DECLINE SOME BUT THEN IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. HAVE VC FOR KMCK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL STILL BE RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING THE
MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050009
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
609 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE TWO SEPERATE WAVES OF RAINFALL MERGING
INTO ONE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MERGE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS OVER THE
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE THE GENERAL TREND OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE
LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT PROLONGED
RAINFALL TONIGHT AS TWO DIFFERENT WAVES MOVE OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LESS THAN 20
MPH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...INSTABILITY DECLINES DURING THE
EARLY EVENING BUT THEN RETURNS OVERNIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY 25KTS WHICH IS BARELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAFS. CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS DUE
TO TIMING OF THE DIFFERENT WAVES OF RAINFALL...THE CEILING
HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE KGLD WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING RAINFALL THAN KMCK...ESPECIALLY
PROLONGED RAINFALL. BASED TIMING OF THE STORMS FOR BOTH SITES BY
TRACKING THE SPEED OF THE CURRENT STORMS. IF STORM MOVEMENT
CHANGES THAT WILL AFFECT THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.  BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND WAVE OF
STORMS WILL CAUSE CIELINGS TO FALL. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES WILL
DECLINE SOME BUT THEN IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. HAVE VC FOR KMCK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL STILL BE RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 050009
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
609 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE TWO SEPERATE WAVES OF RAINFALL MERGING
INTO ONE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MERGE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS OVER THE
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE THE GENERAL TREND OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE
LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT PROLONGED
RAINFALL TONIGHT AS TWO DIFFERENT WAVES MOVE OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LESS THAN 20
MPH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...INSTABILITY DECLINES DURING THE
EARLY EVENING BUT THEN RETURNS OVERNIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY 25KTS WHICH IS BARELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAFS. CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS DUE
TO TIMING OF THE DIFFERENT WAVES OF RAINFALL...THE CEILING
HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE KGLD WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING RAINFALL THAN KMCK...ESPECIALLY
PROLONGED RAINFALL. BASED TIMING OF THE STORMS FOR BOTH SITES BY
TRACKING THE SPEED OF THE CURRENT STORMS. IF STORM MOVEMENT
CHANGES THAT WILL AFFECT THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.  BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND WAVE OF
STORMS WILL CAUSE CIELINGS TO FALL. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES WILL
DECLINE SOME BUT THEN IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. HAVE VC FOR KMCK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL STILL BE RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050009
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
609 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE TWO SEPERATE WAVES OF RAINFALL MERGING
INTO ONE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MERGE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS OVER THE
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE THE GENERAL TREND OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE
LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT PROLONGED
RAINFALL TONIGHT AS TWO DIFFERENT WAVES MOVE OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LESS THAN 20
MPH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...INSTABILITY DECLINES DURING THE
EARLY EVENING BUT THEN RETURNS OVERNIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY 25KTS WHICH IS BARELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAFS. CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS DUE
TO TIMING OF THE DIFFERENT WAVES OF RAINFALL...THE CEILING
HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE KGLD WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING RAINFALL THAN KMCK...ESPECIALLY
PROLONGED RAINFALL. BASED TIMING OF THE STORMS FOR BOTH SITES BY
TRACKING THE SPEED OF THE CURRENT STORMS. IF STORM MOVEMENT
CHANGES THAT WILL AFFECT THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.  BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND WAVE OF
STORMS WILL CAUSE CIELINGS TO FALL. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES WILL
DECLINE SOME BUT THEN IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. HAVE VC FOR KMCK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL STILL BE RAINFALL AT THE SITE DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 042022
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW BRINGING LOW STRATUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION...AND
LIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. LIGHT FOG OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM ESPECIALLY IN
THE 10-18Z TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...SO I
STARTED SHOWING TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER WASNT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 042022
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW BRINGING LOW STRATUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION...AND
LIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. LIGHT FOG OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM ESPECIALLY IN
THE 10-18Z TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...SO I
STARTED SHOWING TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER WASNT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW BRINGING LOW STRATUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION...AND
LIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. LIGHT FOG OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM ESPECIALLY IN
THE 10-18Z TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...SO I
STARTED SHOWING TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER WASNT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 041950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW BRINGING LOW STRATUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION...AND
LIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. LIGHT FOG OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM ESPECIALLY IN
THE 10-18Z TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...SO I
STARTED SHOWING TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER WASNT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW BRINGING LOW STRATUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION...AND
LIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. LIGHT FOG OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM ESPECIALLY IN
THE 10-18Z TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...SO I
STARTED SHOWING TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER WASNT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 041729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW BRINGING LOW STRATUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION...AND
LIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. LIGHT FOG OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM ESPECIALLY IN
THE 10-18Z TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...SO I
STARTED SHOWING TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER WASNT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW BRINGING LOW STRATUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION...AND
LIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. LIGHT FOG OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM ESPECIALLY IN
THE 10-18Z TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...SO I
STARTED SHOWING TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER WASNT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 041138
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLDFRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD WILL START OUT VFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND
06Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR DUE TO
LOWERING CEILINGS. AROUND 06Z...CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AS
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING LIFR NEAR 12Z AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE TO LOWER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041138
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLDFRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD WILL START OUT VFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND
06Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR DUE TO
LOWERING CEILINGS. AROUND 06Z...CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AS
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING LIFR NEAR 12Z AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE TO LOWER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 040838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLDFRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE
GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 040838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLDFRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE
GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 040838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLDFRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE
GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 040838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLDFRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.   PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING
NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW
70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE
GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 040538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ISSUED MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS WITH
POPS...WINDS AND SKY. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...RAINS HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL NEED TO REFINE QPF AND QPE SHORTLY.

STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR BUT A FEW HAVE APPROACHED
SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IF THEY WERE TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.  SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE
GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 040538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ISSUED MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS WITH
POPS...WINDS AND SKY. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...RAINS HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL NEED TO REFINE QPF AND QPE SHORTLY.

STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR BUT A FEW HAVE APPROACHED
SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IF THEY WERE TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.  SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE
GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 040538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ISSUED MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS WITH
POPS...WINDS AND SKY. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...RAINS HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL NEED TO REFINE QPF AND QPE SHORTLY.

STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR BUT A FEW HAVE APPROACHED
SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IF THEY WERE TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.  SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE
GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 032334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ISSUED MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS WITH
POPS...WINDS AND SKY. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...RAINS HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL NEED TO REFINE QPF AND QPE SHORTLY.

STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR BUT A FEW HAVE APPROACHED
SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IF THEY WERE TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.  SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY END BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH POOLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. STRATUS EXPANDS NORTH...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD BY 12-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY RECEDES NORTH DURING THE
DAY. COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE. WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...INCREASING THREAT OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR KGLD AND KMCK WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
REMAINS JUST SOUTH. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS BUT WILL MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 032334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ISSUED MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS WITH
POPS...WINDS AND SKY. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...RAINS HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL NEED TO REFINE QPF AND QPE SHORTLY.

STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR BUT A FEW HAVE APPROACHED
SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IF THEY WERE TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.  SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY END BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH POOLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. STRATUS EXPANDS NORTH...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD BY 12-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY RECEDES NORTH DURING THE
DAY. COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE. WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...INCREASING THREAT OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR KGLD AND KMCK WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
REMAINS JUST SOUTH. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS BUT WILL MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 032334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ISSUED MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS WITH
POPS...WINDS AND SKY. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...RAINS HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL NEED TO REFINE QPF AND QPE SHORTLY.

STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR BUT A FEW HAVE APPROACHED
SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IF THEY WERE TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.  SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY END BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH POOLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. STRATUS EXPANDS NORTH...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD BY 12-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY RECEDES NORTH DURING THE
DAY. COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE. WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...INCREASING THREAT OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR KGLD AND KMCK WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
REMAINS JUST SOUTH. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS BUT WILL MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 032334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ISSUED MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS WITH
POPS...WINDS AND SKY. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...RAINS HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL NEED TO REFINE QPF AND QPE SHORTLY.

STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR BUT A FEW HAVE APPROACHED
SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IF THEY WERE TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.  SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY END BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH POOLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. STRATUS EXPANDS NORTH...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD BY 12-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY RECEDES NORTH DURING THE
DAY. COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE. WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...INCREASING THREAT OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR KGLD AND KMCK WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS
REMAINS JUST SOUTH. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS BUT WILL MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH





000
FXUS63 KGLD 032034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.  SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING LEADING TO TRANSITION
TO MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY MONDAY
MORNING POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND CONTINUING TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AFTER 11-13Z PERIOD THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER 09Z...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS AT LEAST IFR CIGS WITH EASTERLY
FLOW/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING NORTH OF THE FRONT. I
INTRODUCED 2000-2500 CIG GROUPS FOR MONDAY MORNING AS A START AS I
WOULD RATHER NOT GO AS LOW AS IFR AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING LEVEL
OF CONFIDENCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 032034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.  SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING LEADING TO TRANSITION
TO MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY MONDAY
MORNING POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND CONTINUING TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AFTER 11-13Z PERIOD THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER 09Z...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS AT LEAST IFR CIGS WITH EASTERLY
FLOW/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING NORTH OF THE FRONT. I
INTRODUCED 2000-2500 CIG GROUPS FOR MONDAY MORNING AS A START AS I
WOULD RATHER NOT GO AS LOW AS IFR AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING LEVEL
OF CONFIDENCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 031732
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AREAL COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S EAST OF THE BORDER.
HOTTEST AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM BENKELMAN TO
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TODAYS RECORDS
IN JEOPARDY OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO BEING MET. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WEST...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS TO HAVE RATHER LOW POPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COVERS
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS OF NORTON TO HILL CITY TO LEOTI AND
TRIBUNE SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOP SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MY POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING CATEGORICAL POPS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 NEAR COLBY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
EAST AND SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION. WITH PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE EVEN COOLER READINGS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR PLUME OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND AS A RESULT HIGH POPS TUESDAY MORNING TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST/EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE MOISTURE PLUME AND LOWEST POPS ARE CO-LOCATED
WITH IT. AGAIN...MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AND WE COULD SEE A LULL
IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE POPS DECREASING SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AS A RESULT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND
70/LOW 70S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED FEATURE WILL BRING SOME
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AREA CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WEAK
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS. WITH SOUTHERLY ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PROFILE WEDNESDAY MORNING...DEEP SATURATION IS LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.80 AND 1.00 INCHES.
THEREFORE...RAIN SHOWERS AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND
BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.  MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN...BUT THE TIMING IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FEATURE
TO CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...THUS AFFECTING THE TRI STATE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THE POSITION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN STEADY DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGING UPPER FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING LEADING TO TRANSITION
TO MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY MONDAY
MORNING POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND CONTINUING TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AFTER 11-13Z PERIOD THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER 09Z...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS AT LEAST IFR CIGS WITH EASTERLY
FLOW/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING NORTH OF THE FRONT. I
INTRODUCED 2000-2500 CIG GROUPS FOR MONDAY MORNING AS A START AS I
WOULD RATHER NOT GO AS LOW AS IFR AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING LEVEL
OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO BEING TIED:

HILL CITY...92 IN 1949 (89 IS FORECAST)
MCCOOK......96 IN 1949 (93 IS FORECAST)

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 031035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AREAL COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S EAST OF THE BORDER.
HOTTEST AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM BENKELMAN TO
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TODAYS RECORDS
IN JEOPARDY OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO BEING MET. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WEST...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS TO HAVE RATHER LOW POPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COVERS
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS OF NORTON TO HILL CITY TO LEOTI AND
TRIBUNE SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOP SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MY POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING CATEGORICAL POPS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 NEAR COLBY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
EAST AND SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION. WITH PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE EVEN COOLER READINGS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR PLUME OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND AS A RESULT HIGH POPS TUESDAY MORNING TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST/EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE MOISTURE PLUME AND LOWEST POPS ARE CO-LOCATED
WITH IT. AGAIN...MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AND WE COULD SEE A LULL
IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE POPS DECREASING SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AS A RESULT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND
70/LOW 70S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED FEATURE WILL BRING SOME
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AREA CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WEAK
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS. WITH SOUTHERLY ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PROFILE WEDNESDAY MORNING...DEEP SATURATION IS LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.80 AND 1.00 INCHES.
THEREFORE...RAIN SHOWERS AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND
BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.  MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN...BUT THE TIMING IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FEATURE
TO CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...THUS AFFECTING THE TRI STATE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THE POSITION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN STEADY DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGING UPPER FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

KGLD...CURRENTLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 07Z WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM 08Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS POST FRONTAL STRATUS MOVES IN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM 21Z THROUGH 10Z...HIGHEST PROBABILITY
IN THE 02Z-07Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE FROM THE WEST NEAR
10KTS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE 16Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER
01Z WINDS FROM THE EAST NEAR 10KTS BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 05Z
THEN GUSTING 15-20KTS AFTER 11Z.

KMCK...CURRENTLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 07Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM 08Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM 00Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
AFTER 02Z. WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE LIGHT FROM THE WEST THROUGH 20Z.
AFTER 20Z WINDS AROUND 6KTS SLOWLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THEN
NORTH BY 23Z...NORTHEAST BY 02Z. FROM 02Z-08Z WINDS APPROACH 12KTS
FROM THE NORTHEAST THEN AFTER 08Z GUST 20-25KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO BEING TIED:

HILL CITY...92 IN 1949 (89 IS FORECAST)
MCCOOK......96 IN 1949 (93 IS FORECAST)

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 031035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AREAL COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S EAST OF THE BORDER.
HOTTEST AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM BENKELMAN TO
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TODAYS RECORDS
IN JEOPARDY OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO BEING MET. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WEST...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS TO HAVE RATHER LOW POPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COVERS
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS OF NORTON TO HILL CITY TO LEOTI AND
TRIBUNE SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOP SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MY POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING CATEGORICAL POPS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 NEAR COLBY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
EAST AND SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION. WITH PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE EVEN COOLER READINGS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR PLUME OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND AS A RESULT HIGH POPS TUESDAY MORNING TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST/EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE MOISTURE PLUME AND LOWEST POPS ARE CO-LOCATED
WITH IT. AGAIN...MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AND WE COULD SEE A LULL
IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE POPS DECREASING SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AS A RESULT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND
70/LOW 70S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED FEATURE WILL BRING SOME
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AREA CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WEAK
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS. WITH SOUTHERLY ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PROFILE WEDNESDAY MORNING...DEEP SATURATION IS LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.80 AND 1.00 INCHES.
THEREFORE...RAIN SHOWERS AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND
BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.  MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN...BUT THE TIMING IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FEATURE
TO CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...THUS AFFECTING THE TRI STATE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THE POSITION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN STEADY DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGING UPPER FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

KGLD...CURRENTLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 07Z WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM 08Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS POST FRONTAL STRATUS MOVES IN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM 21Z THROUGH 10Z...HIGHEST PROBABILITY
IN THE 02Z-07Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE FROM THE WEST NEAR
10KTS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE 16Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER
01Z WINDS FROM THE EAST NEAR 10KTS BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 05Z
THEN GUSTING 15-20KTS AFTER 11Z.

KMCK...CURRENTLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 07Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM 08Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM 00Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
AFTER 02Z. WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE LIGHT FROM THE WEST THROUGH 20Z.
AFTER 20Z WINDS AROUND 6KTS SLOWLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THEN
NORTH BY 23Z...NORTHEAST BY 02Z. FROM 02Z-08Z WINDS APPROACH 12KTS
FROM THE NORTHEAST THEN AFTER 08Z GUST 20-25KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO BEING TIED:

HILL CITY...92 IN 1949 (89 IS FORECAST)
MCCOOK......96 IN 1949 (93 IS FORECAST)

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 030820
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND LATEST MODEL
DATA...HAVE LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE YUMA COUNTY AREA AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES
WHERE RAINFALL IS OR WILL BE MOVING OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST DATA INDICATES THE LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
IS AT ITS BEST NOW AND WILL DECLINE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE TRACK OF THE 700MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
RAINFALL CHANCES TO END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LIFT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES TO AN END AS THE TROUGH
FILLS/MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING BASED
ON LATEST DATA. LATEST RADAR SHOWS LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST TO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING ACCOMPANYING THE 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHILE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECLINE.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT THE LIFT DECLINES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL...HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY DECLINING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...STRONGEST STORMS STILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED. HAVE
HAD SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO LAST VERY LONG AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
WEAK. AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS INCREASES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE
INVERSION DEVELOPS. OVERALL SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 PRIOR TO 9 PM CT OR 8 PM MT. AFTER THAT THE
FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY DECLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED H5/H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NE PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RAP ANALYSIS (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER
NAM) SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. CINH APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER ONLY SOME SHALLOW CU HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO EASTERN COLORADO I WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. HRRR/RAP BOTH
INDICATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEER/HELICITY ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE (WEST). MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATE/SCATTERED. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL AND INSTABILITY ARE SHOW IN
IN THE LOWER SHEER ENVIRONMENT...WHERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/CORES...WITH LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE. DCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN
HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS (MAINLY WEST) DO RAISE A CONCERN FOR INCREASED
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA IT COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEER (35KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER
AROUND 00Z). AS THE SUN SETS AND WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE
LATE AND ONLY A WEAK LLJ IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
A LITTLE OVER THE CWA AND WAA INCREASES OVER THE CWA. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOST IN THE 80S...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 (MAINLY MCCOOK/HILL CITY). SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
COULD BRING HIGHER TD VALUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. NAM MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH...BUT EITHER WAY THIS BETTER BL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
SHEER MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE THAN TODAY...SO THERE MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ANYTHING IS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO INITIATE
PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES AGAIN IN PLACE COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL LATER WHEN BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING/DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVINGS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED FEATURE WILL BRING SOME
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AREA CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WEAK
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS. WITH SOUTHERLY ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PROFILE WEDNESDAY MORNING...DEEP SATURATION IS LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.80 AND 1.00 INCHES.
THEREFORE...RAIN SHOWERS AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND
BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.  MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN...BUT THE TIMING IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FEATURE
TO CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...THUS AFFECTING THE TRI STATE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THE POSITION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN STEADY DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGING UPPER FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS.  STORM ACTIVITY HAS COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  DURING THE DAY A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN CLOCKWISE
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
DURING THE EVENING STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.  DID NOT PLACE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE
STORMS WILL NOT MOVE NEAR THE SITES UNTIL AFTER 6Z...WHEN CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 030820
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND LATEST MODEL
DATA...HAVE LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE YUMA COUNTY AREA AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES
WHERE RAINFALL IS OR WILL BE MOVING OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST DATA INDICATES THE LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
IS AT ITS BEST NOW AND WILL DECLINE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE TRACK OF THE 700MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
RAINFALL CHANCES TO END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LIFT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES TO AN END AS THE TROUGH
FILLS/MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING BASED
ON LATEST DATA. LATEST RADAR SHOWS LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST TO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING ACCOMPANYING THE 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHILE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECLINE.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT THE LIFT DECLINES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL...HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY DECLINING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...STRONGEST STORMS STILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED. HAVE
HAD SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO LAST VERY LONG AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
WEAK. AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS INCREASES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE
INVERSION DEVELOPS. OVERALL SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 PRIOR TO 9 PM CT OR 8 PM MT. AFTER THAT THE
FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY DECLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED H5/H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NE PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RAP ANALYSIS (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER
NAM) SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. CINH APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER ONLY SOME SHALLOW CU HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO EASTERN COLORADO I WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. HRRR/RAP BOTH
INDICATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEER/HELICITY ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE (WEST). MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATE/SCATTERED. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL AND INSTABILITY ARE SHOW IN
IN THE LOWER SHEER ENVIRONMENT...WHERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/CORES...WITH LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE. DCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN
HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS (MAINLY WEST) DO RAISE A CONCERN FOR INCREASED
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA IT COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEER (35KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER
AROUND 00Z). AS THE SUN SETS AND WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE
LATE AND ONLY A WEAK LLJ IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
A LITTLE OVER THE CWA AND WAA INCREASES OVER THE CWA. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOST IN THE 80S...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 (MAINLY MCCOOK/HILL CITY). SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
COULD BRING HIGHER TD VALUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. NAM MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH...BUT EITHER WAY THIS BETTER BL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
SHEER MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE THAN TODAY...SO THERE MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ANYTHING IS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO INITIATE
PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES AGAIN IN PLACE COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL LATER WHEN BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING/DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVINGS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED FEATURE WILL BRING SOME
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AREA CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WEAK
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS. WITH SOUTHERLY ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PROFILE WEDNESDAY MORNING...DEEP SATURATION IS LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.80 AND 1.00 INCHES.
THEREFORE...RAIN SHOWERS AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND
BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.  MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN...BUT THE TIMING IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FEATURE
TO CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...THUS AFFECTING THE TRI STATE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THE POSITION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN STEADY DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGING UPPER FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS.  STORM ACTIVITY HAS COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  DURING THE DAY A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN CLOCKWISE
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
DURING THE EVENING STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.  DID NOT PLACE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE
STORMS WILL NOT MOVE NEAR THE SITES UNTIL AFTER 6Z...WHEN CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030455
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND LATEST MODEL
DATA...HAVE LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE YUMA COUNTY AREA AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES
WHERE RAINFALL IS OR WILL BE MOVING OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST DATA INDICATES THE LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
IS AT ITS BEST NOW AND WILL DECLINE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE TRACK OF THE 700MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
RAINFALL CHANCES TO END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LIFT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES TO AN END AS THE TROUGH
FILLS/MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING BASED
ON LATEST DATA. LATEST RADAR SHOWS LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST TO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING ACCOMPANYING THE 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHILE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECLINE.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT THE LIFT DECLINES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL...HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY DECLINING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...STRONGEST STORMS STILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED. HAVE
HAD SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO LAST VERY LONG AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
WEAK. AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS INCREASES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE
INVERSION DEVELOPS. OVERALL SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 PRIOR TO 9 PM CT OR 8 PM MT. AFTER THAT THE
FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY DECLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED H5/H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NE PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RAP ANALYSIS (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER
NAM) SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. CINH APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER ONLY SOME SHALLOW CU HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO EASTERN COLORADO I WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. HRRR/RAP BOTH
INDICATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEER/HELICITY ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE (WEST). MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATE/SCATTERED. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL AND INSTABILITY ARE SHOW IN
IN THE LOWER SHEER ENVIRONMENT...WHERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/CORES...WITH LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE. DCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN
HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS (MAINLY WEST) DO RAISE A CONCERN FOR INCREASED
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA IT COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEER (35KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER
AROUND 00Z). AS THE SUN SETS AND WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE
LATE AND ONLY A WEAK LLJ IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
A LITTLE OVER THE CWA AND WAA INCREASES OVER THE CWA. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOST IN THE 80S...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 (MAINLY MCCOOK/HILL CITY). SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
COULD BRING HIGHER TD VALUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. NAM MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH...BUT EITHER WAY THIS BETTER BL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
SHEER MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE THAN TODAY...SO THERE MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ANYTHING IS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO INITIATE
PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES AGAIN IN PLACE COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL LATER WHEN BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING/DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVINGS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE FA SUNDAY EVENING AND INITIATE STORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PLAN TO USE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. PLAN TO KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA AS STORMS DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE A LULL MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING
WAVE. POPS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH.  MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK
GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS.
GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS THE FA FOR TUESDAY RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. PLAN TO
CONTINUE LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID 40S
IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN FA.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WEDNEDAY NIGHT.  GOOD
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUPPORT HIGH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  POPS
WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
STORMS. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER READINGS IN EASTERN COLORADO.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY WARM TO THE 70S EACH DAY WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND NEAR 80 IN THE EASTERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS.  STORM ACTIVITY HAS COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  DURING THE DAY A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN CLOCKWISE
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
DURING THE EVENING STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.  DID NOT PLACE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE
STORMS WILL NOT MOVE NEAR THE SITES UNTIL AFTER 6Z...WHEN CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 030455
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND LATEST MODEL
DATA...HAVE LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE YUMA COUNTY AREA AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES
WHERE RAINFALL IS OR WILL BE MOVING OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST DATA INDICATES THE LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
IS AT ITS BEST NOW AND WILL DECLINE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE TRACK OF THE 700MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
RAINFALL CHANCES TO END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LIFT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES TO AN END AS THE TROUGH
FILLS/MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING BASED
ON LATEST DATA. LATEST RADAR SHOWS LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST TO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING ACCOMPANYING THE 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHILE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECLINE.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT THE LIFT DECLINES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL...HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY DECLINING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...STRONGEST STORMS STILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED. HAVE
HAD SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO LAST VERY LONG AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
WEAK. AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS INCREASES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE
INVERSION DEVELOPS. OVERALL SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 PRIOR TO 9 PM CT OR 8 PM MT. AFTER THAT THE
FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY DECLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED H5/H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NE PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RAP ANALYSIS (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER
NAM) SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. CINH APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER ONLY SOME SHALLOW CU HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO EASTERN COLORADO I WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. HRRR/RAP BOTH
INDICATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEER/HELICITY ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE (WEST). MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATE/SCATTERED. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL AND INSTABILITY ARE SHOW IN
IN THE LOWER SHEER ENVIRONMENT...WHERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/CORES...WITH LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE. DCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN
HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS (MAINLY WEST) DO RAISE A CONCERN FOR INCREASED
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA IT COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEER (35KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER
AROUND 00Z). AS THE SUN SETS AND WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE
LATE AND ONLY A WEAK LLJ IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
A LITTLE OVER THE CWA AND WAA INCREASES OVER THE CWA. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOST IN THE 80S...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 (MAINLY MCCOOK/HILL CITY). SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
COULD BRING HIGHER TD VALUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. NAM MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH...BUT EITHER WAY THIS BETTER BL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
SHEER MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE THAN TODAY...SO THERE MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ANYTHING IS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO INITIATE
PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES AGAIN IN PLACE COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL LATER WHEN BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING/DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVINGS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE FA SUNDAY EVENING AND INITIATE STORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PLAN TO USE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. PLAN TO KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA AS STORMS DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE A LULL MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING
WAVE. POPS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH.  MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK
GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS.
GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS THE FA FOR TUESDAY RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. PLAN TO
CONTINUE LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID 40S
IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN FA.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WEDNEDAY NIGHT.  GOOD
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUPPORT HIGH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  POPS
WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
STORMS. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER READINGS IN EASTERN COLORADO.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY WARM TO THE 70S EACH DAY WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND NEAR 80 IN THE EASTERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS.  STORM ACTIVITY HAS COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.  LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  DURING THE DAY A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN CLOCKWISE
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
DURING THE EVENING STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.  DID NOT PLACE A
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE
STORMS WILL NOT MOVE NEAR THE SITES UNTIL AFTER 6Z...WHEN CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030221
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
821 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND LATEST MODEL
DATA...HAVE LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE YUMA COUNTY AREA AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES
WHERE RAINFALL IS OR WILL BE MOVING OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST DATA INDICATES THE LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
IS AT ITS BEST NOW AND WILL DECLINE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE TRACK OF THE 700MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
RAINFALL CHANCES TO END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LIFT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES TO AN END AS THE TROUGH
FILLS/MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING BASED
ON LATEST DATA. LATEST RADAR SHOWS LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST TO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING ACCOMPANYING THE 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHILE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECLINE.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT THE LIFT DECLINES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL...HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY DECLINING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...STRONGEST STORMS STILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED. HAVE
HAD SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO LAST VERY LONG AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
WEAK. AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS INCREASES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE
INVERSION DEVELOPS. OVERALL SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 PRIOR TO 9 PM CT OR 8 PM MT. AFTER THAT THE
FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY DECLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED H5/H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NE PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RAP ANALYSIS (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER
NAM) SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. CINH APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER ONLY SOME SHALLOW CU HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO EASTERN COLORADO I WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. HRRR/RAP BOTH
INDICATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEER/HELICITY ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE (WEST). MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATE/SCATTERED. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL AND INSTABILITY ARE SHOW IN
IN THE LOWER SHEER ENVIRONMENT...WHERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/CORES...WITH LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE. DCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN
HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS (MAINLY WEST) DO RAISE A CONCERN FOR INCREASED
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA IT COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEER (35KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER
AROUND 00Z). AS THE SUN SETS AND WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE
LATE AND ONLY A WEAK LLJ IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
A LITTLE OVER THE CWA AND WAA INCREASES OVER THE CWA. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOST IN THE 80S...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 (MAINLY MCCOOK/HILL CITY). SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
COULD BRING HIGHER TD VALUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. NAM MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH...BUT EITHER WAY THIS BETTER BL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
SHEER MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE THAN TODAY...SO THERE MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ANYTHING IS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO INITIATE
PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES AGAIN IN PLACE COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL LATER WHEN BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING/DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVINGS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE FA SUNDAY EVENING AND INITIATE STORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PLAN TO USE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. PLAN TO KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA AS STORMS DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE A LULL MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING
WAVE. POPS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH.  MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK
GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS.
GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS THE FA FOR TUESDAY RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. PLAN TO
CONTINUE LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID 40S
IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN FA.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WEDNEDAY NIGHT.  GOOD
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUPPORT HIGH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  POPS
WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
STORMS. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER READINGS IN EASTERN COLORADO.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY WARM TO THE 70S EACH DAY WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND NEAR 80 IN THE EASTERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 0Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING
OF THE STORMS FOR KGLD DURING THE EVENING. AM THINKING THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KGLD...BUT THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME STORMS NEAR THE SITE. OTHERWISE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030221
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
821 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND LATEST MODEL
DATA...HAVE LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE YUMA COUNTY AREA AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES
WHERE RAINFALL IS OR WILL BE MOVING OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST DATA INDICATES THE LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
IS AT ITS BEST NOW AND WILL DECLINE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE TRACK OF THE 700MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
RAINFALL CHANCES TO END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LIFT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES TO AN END AS THE TROUGH
FILLS/MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING BASED
ON LATEST DATA. LATEST RADAR SHOWS LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST TO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING ACCOMPANYING THE 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHILE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECLINE.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT THE LIFT DECLINES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL...HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY DECLINING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...STRONGEST STORMS STILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED. HAVE
HAD SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO LAST VERY LONG AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
WEAK. AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS INCREASES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE
INVERSION DEVELOPS. OVERALL SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 PRIOR TO 9 PM CT OR 8 PM MT. AFTER THAT THE
FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY DECLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED H5/H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NE PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RAP ANALYSIS (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER
NAM) SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. CINH APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER ONLY SOME SHALLOW CU HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO EASTERN COLORADO I WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. HRRR/RAP BOTH
INDICATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEER/HELICITY ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE (WEST). MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATE/SCATTERED. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL AND INSTABILITY ARE SHOW IN
IN THE LOWER SHEER ENVIRONMENT...WHERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/CORES...WITH LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE. DCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN
HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS (MAINLY WEST) DO RAISE A CONCERN FOR INCREASED
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA IT COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEER (35KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER
AROUND 00Z). AS THE SUN SETS AND WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE
LATE AND ONLY A WEAK LLJ IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
A LITTLE OVER THE CWA AND WAA INCREASES OVER THE CWA. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOST IN THE 80S...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 (MAINLY MCCOOK/HILL CITY). SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
COULD BRING HIGHER TD VALUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. NAM MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH...BUT EITHER WAY THIS BETTER BL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
SHEER MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE THAN TODAY...SO THERE MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ANYTHING IS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO INITIATE
PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES AGAIN IN PLACE COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL LATER WHEN BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING/DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVINGS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE FA SUNDAY EVENING AND INITIATE STORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PLAN TO USE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. PLAN TO KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA AS STORMS DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE A LULL MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING
WAVE. POPS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH.  MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK
GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS.
GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS THE FA FOR TUESDAY RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. PLAN TO
CONTINUE LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID 40S
IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN FA.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WEDNEDAY NIGHT.  GOOD
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUPPORT HIGH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  POPS
WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
STORMS. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER READINGS IN EASTERN COLORADO.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY WARM TO THE 70S EACH DAY WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND NEAR 80 IN THE EASTERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 0Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING
OF THE STORMS FOR KGLD DURING THE EVENING. AM THINKING THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KGLD...BUT THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME STORMS NEAR THE SITE. OTHERWISE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL





000
FXUS63 KGLD 030221
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
821 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND LATEST MODEL
DATA...HAVE LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE YUMA COUNTY AREA AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES
WHERE RAINFALL IS OR WILL BE MOVING OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST DATA INDICATES THE LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
IS AT ITS BEST NOW AND WILL DECLINE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE TRACK OF THE 700MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
RAINFALL CHANCES TO END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LIFT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES TO AN END AS THE TROUGH
FILLS/MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING BASED
ON LATEST DATA. LATEST RADAR SHOWS LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST TO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING ACCOMPANYING THE 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHILE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECLINE.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT THE LIFT DECLINES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL...HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY DECLINING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...STRONGEST STORMS STILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED. HAVE
HAD SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO LAST VERY LONG AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
WEAK. AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS INCREASES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE
INVERSION DEVELOPS. OVERALL SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 PRIOR TO 9 PM CT OR 8 PM MT. AFTER THAT THE
FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY DECLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED H5/H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NE PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RAP ANALYSIS (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER
NAM) SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. CINH APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER ONLY SOME SHALLOW CU HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO EASTERN COLORADO I WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. HRRR/RAP BOTH
INDICATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEER/HELICITY ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE (WEST). MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATE/SCATTERED. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL AND INSTABILITY ARE SHOW IN
IN THE LOWER SHEER ENVIRONMENT...WHERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/CORES...WITH LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE. DCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN
HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS (MAINLY WEST) DO RAISE A CONCERN FOR INCREASED
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA IT COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEER (35KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER
AROUND 00Z). AS THE SUN SETS AND WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE
LATE AND ONLY A WEAK LLJ IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
A LITTLE OVER THE CWA AND WAA INCREASES OVER THE CWA. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOST IN THE 80S...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 (MAINLY MCCOOK/HILL CITY). SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
COULD BRING HIGHER TD VALUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. NAM MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH...BUT EITHER WAY THIS BETTER BL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
SHEER MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER WHERE GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE THAN TODAY...SO THERE MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ANYTHING IS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO INITIATE
PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH
DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES AGAIN IN PLACE COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL LATER WHEN BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING/DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVINGS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO COLORADO TUESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE FA SUNDAY EVENING AND INITIATE STORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PLAN TO USE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. PLAN TO KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA AS STORMS DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE A LULL MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING
WAVE. POPS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH.  MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK
GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS.
GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS THE FA FOR TUESDAY RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. PLAN TO
CONTINUE LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID 40S
IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN FA.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WEDNEDAY NIGHT.  GOOD
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUPPORT HIGH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  POPS
WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
STORMS. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER READINGS IN EASTERN COLORADO.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY WARM TO THE 70S EACH DAY WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND NEAR 80 IN THE EASTERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 0Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING
OF THE STORMS FOR KGLD DURING THE EVENING. AM THINKING THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KGLD...BUT THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME STORMS NEAR THE SITE. OTHERWISE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL




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