Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KGLD 311734
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE CHALLENGE FIRST THING THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PLAINS STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM ENOUGH
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE NO
CURRENT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND WINDS
INCREASE AS THEY BEGIN TO TURN FROM AN EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES AT MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SO WE WILL ADD RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA...
FROM HORACE, KS NORTHEAST TO ALMENA KS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE
FRONT COMPLETES ITS MOVEMENT OVER THE AREA THE SKY WILL START
CLEARING... WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A DROP IN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE GOODLAND AND MCCOOK
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AT INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AT GOODLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME GUSTY TO 25 KNOTS OR SO TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT MCCOOK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KGLD 311150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE CHALLENGE FIRST THING THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PLAINS STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM ENOUGH
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE NO
CURRENT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND WINDS
INCREASE AS THEY BEGIN TO TURN FROM AN EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES AT MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SO WE WILL ADD RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA...
FROM HORACE, KS NORTHEAST TO ALMENA KS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE
FRONT COMPLETES ITS MOVEMENT OVER THE AREA THE SKY WILL START
CLEARING... WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A DROP IN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE AREA OF CLOUDS IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVED IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE YESTERDAY. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS AT MCK THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER 15Z...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AT GLD...SKIES WILL BE BRIEFLY VFR...BUT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO IFR AS THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND PLACED IFR IN AS THE PREVAILING CONDITION BEGINNING
AT 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
ROCKIES. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310857
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE CHALLENGE FIRST THING THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PLAINS STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM ENOUGH
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE NO
CURRENT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND WINDS
INCREASE AS THEY BEGIN TO TURN FROM AN EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES AT MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SO WE WILL ADD RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA...
FROM HORACE, KS NORTHEAST TO ALMENA KS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE
FRONT COMPLETES ITS MOVEMENT OVER THE AREA THE SKY WILL START
CLEARING... WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A DROP IN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 09Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN...REMAINING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MID MORNING
BECM SSE 10-20KTS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY 00Z SAT 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE CHALLENGE FIRST THING THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PLAINS STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM ENOUGH
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE NO
CURRENT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND WINDS
INCREASE AS THEY BEGIN TO TURN FROM AN EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES AT MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 09Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN...REMAINING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MID MORNING
BECM SSE 10-20KTS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY 00Z SAT 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310434
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ADJUST WINDS AND TEMPS BASED OFF TREND
OF LAST COUPLE HOURS OF OBS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 10 MPH OR
LESS AND HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
NICELY AFTER SUNSET WITH AREA SEEING 40S TO THE WEST UP TO THE
L50S TO THE EAST. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES STILL EXPECTED BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF STRATUS DECK BY TOMORROW MORNING...STILL LOOKING FOR
AREAS OBS TO SHOW DROP TOWARDS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 09Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN...REMAINING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MID MORNING
BECM SSE 10-20KTS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY 00Z SAT 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 310214
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
814 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ADJUST WINDS AND TEMPS BASED OFF TREND
OF LAST COUPLE HOURS OF OBS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 10 MPH OR
LESS AND HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
NICELY AFTER SUNSET WITH AREA SEEING 40S TO THE WEST UP TO THE
L50S TO THE EAST. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES STILL EXPECTED BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF STRATUS DECK BY TOMORROW MORNING...STILL LOOKING FOR
AREAS OBS TO SHOW DROP TOWARDS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 06Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN AND REMAINS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120. WINDS BEGINNING NORTHERLY
10-20KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NE BY 04Z-06Z AT 5-10KTS...THEN ESE
5-15KTS FROM 15Z-16Z FRIDAY ONWARD. KGLD WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25KTS
AFT 19Z FRIDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 302324
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ZONE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS STILL STEADY IN MOST SPOTS 10-20MPH WITH SOME
LOCAL HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. STILL
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVER AREA SO WILL STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
INTO THE EVENING. EAST SIDE OF APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS STILL HAS
LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL WORK INTO AREA BY 12Z
FRIDAY ON EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW...SO FOR NOW PATCHY FOG AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER REMAIN IN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 06Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN AND REMAINS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120. WINDS BEGINNING NORTHERLY
10-20KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NE BY 04Z-06Z AT 5-10KTS...THEN ESE
5-15KTS FROM 15Z-16Z FRIDAY ONWARD. KGLD WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25KTS
AFT 19Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
120 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JRM





000
FXUS63 KGLD 301134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHIFT SOUTH AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD OVERSPREAD
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 09Z (FIRST AT KMCK...THEN AT KGLD) WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
PREVAIL THE CONDITIONS AND IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO ADD TEMPO
GROUP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300846
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
AREA THRU 13Z THEN SKC. WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z-15Z THEN
SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE 15-25KTS. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NNE AROUND
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR TEMP TREND OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
TROUGH HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE CWA WITH MOST AREAS SEEING WNW
WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE MID 40S THRU THE LOWER 50S. STILL EXPECT
SLOW DOWN TREND INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AS SKIES ROMAN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
AREA THRU 13Z THEN SKC. WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z-15Z THEN
SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE 15-25KTS. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NNE AROUND
10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR TEMP TREND OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
TROUGH HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE CWA WITH MOST AREAS SEEING WNW
WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE MID 40S THRU THE LOWER 50S. STILL EXPECT
SLOW DOWN TREND INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AS SKIES ROMAN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
AREA THRU 13Z THEN SKC. WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z-15Z THEN
SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE 15-25KTS. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NNE AROUND
10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300225 CCA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
825 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO
TROUGH MEANDERING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. SW FLOW IN IMMEDIATE
AREA OF THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE OVER PAST HOUR(GLD
NOW 61F WAS 54F LAST HOUR). THIS SLIGHT BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL OF WNW FLOW. SIMILAR OCCURRENCE MAY OCCUR
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR AN HOUR
OR SO UNTIL TROUGH COMPLETELY CLEARS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING
FOR MAINLY SKC...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM 02Z-15Z. LGT/VAR WINDS
WILL BECM NW 5-10KTS BY 02Z THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 15-25KTS BY
13Z-15Z AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...THEN DROP DOWN TO NEAR 10KTS
BY 23Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 300225
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
825 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO
TROUGH MEANDERING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. SW FLOW IN IMMEDIATE
AREA OF THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE OVER PAST HOUR(GLD
NOW 61F WAS 54F LAST HOUR). THIS SLIGHT BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL OF WNW FLOW. SIMILAR OCCURENCE MAY OCCUR
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR AN HOUR
OR SO UNTIL TROUGH COMPLETELY CLEARS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING
FOR MAINLY SKC...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM 02Z-15Z. LGT/VAR WINDS
WILL BECM NW 5-10KTS BY 02Z THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 15-25KTS BY
13Z-15Z AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...THEN DROP DOWN TO NEAR 10KTS
BY 23Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH A TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD OF 30 TO 60 DEGREES
IS STARTING THE FORECAST AREA OFF ON A GREAT NOTE. CURRENTLY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE U60S TO L70S...A STEADY DROP WILL BE
EXPECTED AT SUNSET DOWN INTO THE M30S. WITH DEWPTS SO LOW WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR AREA OBS AFTER SUNSET TO SEE IF OVERNIGHT
FORECASTED LOWS WILL HOLD...BUT MAY DROP IF TREND WARRANTS. VARIABLE
WIND CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME NW OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK SE INTO THE CWA AFTER
SUNSET PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM NW TO SE...AND MAY
AID IN HOLDING TEMPS UP IN SOME LOCALES. OVERALL...FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING
FOR MAINLY SKC...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM 02Z-15Z. LGT/VAR WINDS
WILL BECM NW 5-10KTS BY 02Z THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 15-25KTS BY
13Z-15Z AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...THEN DROP DOWN TO NEAR 10KTS
BY 23Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292041
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 292038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291925
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
125 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291654
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.

FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KGLD 291124
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.

FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND
10KT AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER BOTH
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...DR





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290934
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.

FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. SKC BEFORE 16Z WED AND AFT 00Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW060
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MIDDAY...THEN WSW
5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290456
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST OBS. SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE REGION ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA. MOST OBS SHOWING 30S OVER THE AREA BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS
STILL PERSISTING...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOWARDS DEWPTS...WHICH RESIDE IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SINCE LOW TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE FA LAST NIGHT AND BEING SO LATE IN THE SEASON HAVE DECIDED TO
END THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FROST OR FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE REST OF
THIS SEASON.  THEREFORE, THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
CANCELLED.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 30S. WARMER 850
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HELP MAX TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN POINTS OF THIS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOCUS ON THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING THE TRI-STATE REGION
PRECIPITATION BUT RATHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ATTAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. COOLEST AIR
BECOMES NOTICEABLE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z/12Z MODEL RUNS SO HAVE NOT DROPPED TEMPS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SUDDEN JUMP IN GUIDANCE.

LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF INCREASING WINDS FIRST ACROSS EAST
COLORADO AND EVERYWHERE SATURDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WYOMING IN
ADDITION TO A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHALL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PRESSURE FALLS OF 10-14 MB OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BEING THE WINDIEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

MODELS AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HEADING
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS VERSUS FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR
AREA. THEREFORE...SURFACE LOW HEADS FURTHER NORTH AND LIKELY
ELIMINATES ANY POTENTIAL SNOW STORM. A SECOND...WEAKER PUNCH OF
ENERGY PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD STILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BELOW FREEZING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE
EAST. CALM WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS IN. IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO SO THE DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. SKC BEFORE 16Z WED AND AFT 00Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW060
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MIDDAY...THEN WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 290242
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
842 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS TRI STATE REGION
CONTINUING TO SEE SLIDING TEMPERATURE TREND. SOME SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE CWA IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. VARIABLE
WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM DROPPING TOO SHARPLY...BUT EXPECT OVERNIGHT FORECASTED
LOWS TO HOLD AS SOME MID/UPPER 30S ALREADY SHOWING UP...INCLUDING
37F HERE AT GOODLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SINCE LOW TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE FA LAST NIGHT AND BEING SO LATE IN THE SEASON HAVE DECIDED TO
END THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FROST OR FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE REST OF
THIS SEASON.  THEREFORE, THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
CANCELLED.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 30S. WARMER 850
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HELP MAX TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN POINTS OF THIS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOCUS ON THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING THE TRI-STATE REGION
PRECIPITATION BUT RATHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ATTAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. COOLEST AIR
BECOMES NOTICEABLE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z/12Z MODEL RUNS SO HAVE NOT DROPPED TEMPS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SUDDEN JUMP IN GUIDANCE.

LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF INCREASING WINDS FIRST ACROSS EAST
COLORADO AND EVERYWHERE SATURDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WYOMING IN
ADDITION TO A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHALL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PRESSURE FALLS OF 10-14 MB OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BEING THE WINDIEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

MODELS AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HEADING
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS VERSUS FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR
AREA. THEREFORE...SURFACE LOW HEADS FURTHER NORTH AND LIKELY
ELIMINATES ANY POTENTIAL SNOW STORM. A SECOND...WEAKER PUNCH OF
ENERGY PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD STILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BELOW FREEZING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE
EAST. CALM WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS IN. IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO SO THE DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SKC THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THEN FEW060 FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BECOMING SSW
5-10KTS BY 08Z FOR KGLD AND 16Z FOR KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 282339
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO MAINLY
ADJUST TEMPERATURES FROM LATEST OBS. STILL LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES
IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DESPITE SOME LIMITED MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SINCE LOW TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE FA LAST NIGHT AND BEING SO LATE IN THE SEASON HAVE DECIDED TO
END THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FROST OR FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE REST OF
THIS SEASON.  THEREFORE, THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
CANCELLED.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 30S. WARMER 850
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HELP MAX TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN POINTS OF THIS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOCUS ON THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING THE TRI-STATE REGION
PRECIPITATION BUT RATHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ATTAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. COOLEST AIR
BECOMES NOTICEABLE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z/12Z MODEL RUNS SO HAVE NOT DROPPED TEMPS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SUDDEN JUMP IN GUIDANCE.

LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF INCREASING WINDS FIRST ACROSS EAST
COLORADO AND EVERYWHERE SATURDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WYOMING IN
ADDITION TO A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHALL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PRESSURE FALLS OF 10-14 MB OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BEING THE WINDIEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

MODELS AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HEADING
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS VERSUS FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR
AREA. THEREFORE...SURFACE LOW HEADS FURTHER NORTH AND LIKELY
ELIMINATES ANY POTENTIAL SNOW STORM. A SECOND...WEAKER PUNCH OF
ENERGY PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD STILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BELOW FREEZING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE
EAST. CALM WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS IN. IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO SO THE DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SKC THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THEN FEW060 FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BECOMING SSW
5-10KTS BY 08Z FOR KGLD AND 16Z FOR KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN





000
FXUS63 KGLD 282033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SINCE LOW TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE FA LAST NIGHT AND BEING SO LATE IN THE SEASON HAVE DECIDED TO
END THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FROST OR FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE REST OF
THIS SEASON.  THEREFORE, THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
CANCELLED.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 30S. WARMER 850
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HELP MAX TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN POINTS OF THIS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOCUS ON THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING THE TRI-STATE REGION
PRECIPITATION BUT RATHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ATTAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. COOLEST AIR
BECOMES NOTICEABLE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z/12Z MODEL RUNS SO HAVE NOT DROPPED TEMPS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SUDDEN JUMP IN GUIDANCE.

LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF INCREASING WINDS FIRST ACROSS EAST
COLORADO AND EVERYWHERE SATURDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WYOMING IN
ADDITION TO A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHALL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PRESSURE FALLS OF 10-14 MB OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BEING THE WINDIEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

MODELS AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HEADING
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS VERSUS FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR
AREA. THEREFORE...SURFACE LOW HEADS FURTHER NORTH AND LIKELY
ELIMINATES ANY POTENTIAL SNOW STORM. A SECOND...WEAKER PUNCH OF
ENERGY PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD STILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BELOW FREEZING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE
EAST. CALM WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS IN. IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO SO THE DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD
AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities