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000
FXUS63 KGRB 021128
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ALONG AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 KM
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE ROUNDS IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC...HOWEVER THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS
DO OFFER SOME GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD AS THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THERE IS A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE. THEREFORE WILL
MODEL THE POPS AFTER THESE RUNS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS THE DAY
GOES ON.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE STANDS A CHANCE AT BEING SEVERE AS
MUCAPES SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE A THREAT. CLOSER INSPECTION OF LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...WHICH MEANS TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS. THESE FACTORS HAVE LED
TO AN UPGRADE OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE FACTORS IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
APPEARS TO BE AN MCS...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FORMING INTO A LARGE MCS.

DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COULD GET TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. ANY BREAK IN THIS
ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR. FURTHER NORTH
THERE APPEARS LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HIGHS TODAY
COULD GO EITHER WAY GIVEN THE MANY COMPLICATING FACTORS IN
PLAY...WITH BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY LEADING TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
ON MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK FAIRLY LOW HOWEVER...WITH POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH 00Z FRI BEFORE
DIVERGING.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO ITS SOLUTION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK CAPPED DURING THIS
STRETCH...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THIS AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS
OCCUR MONDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHTS.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF INTO QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A REBOUND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.  BUT MODELS
ADVERTISE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.   HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE DRY
CONDITIONS.  PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC...DUE TO
THE POP UP NATURE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION. OVERALL IT APPEARS A
CLUSTER OUT TO THE WEST IS HEADED FOR RHI...AND MAY AFFECT
AUW/CWA. BEYOND THAT WAITING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A BIT OF A BREAK LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS. A FEW OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 021128
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ALONG AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 KM
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE ROUNDS IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC...HOWEVER THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS
DO OFFER SOME GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD AS THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THERE IS A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE. THEREFORE WILL
MODEL THE POPS AFTER THESE RUNS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS THE DAY
GOES ON.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE STANDS A CHANCE AT BEING SEVERE AS
MUCAPES SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE A THREAT. CLOSER INSPECTION OF LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...WHICH MEANS TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS. THESE FACTORS HAVE LED
TO AN UPGRADE OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE FACTORS IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
APPEARS TO BE AN MCS...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FORMING INTO A LARGE MCS.

DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COULD GET TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. ANY BREAK IN THIS
ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR. FURTHER NORTH
THERE APPEARS LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HIGHS TODAY
COULD GO EITHER WAY GIVEN THE MANY COMPLICATING FACTORS IN
PLAY...WITH BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY LEADING TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
ON MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK FAIRLY LOW HOWEVER...WITH POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH 00Z FRI BEFORE
DIVERGING.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO ITS SOLUTION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK CAPPED DURING THIS
STRETCH...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THIS AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS
OCCUR MONDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHTS.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF INTO QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A REBOUND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.  BUT MODELS
ADVERTISE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.   HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE DRY
CONDITIONS.  PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC...DUE TO
THE POP UP NATURE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION. OVERALL IT APPEARS A
CLUSTER OUT TO THE WEST IS HEADED FOR RHI...AND MAY AFFECT
AUW/CWA. BEYOND THAT WAITING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A BIT OF A BREAK LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS. A FEW OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 021128
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ALONG AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 KM
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE ROUNDS IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC...HOWEVER THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS
DO OFFER SOME GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD AS THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THERE IS A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE. THEREFORE WILL
MODEL THE POPS AFTER THESE RUNS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS THE DAY
GOES ON.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE STANDS A CHANCE AT BEING SEVERE AS
MUCAPES SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE A THREAT. CLOSER INSPECTION OF LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...WHICH MEANS TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS. THESE FACTORS HAVE LED
TO AN UPGRADE OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE FACTORS IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
APPEARS TO BE AN MCS...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FORMING INTO A LARGE MCS.

DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COULD GET TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. ANY BREAK IN THIS
ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR. FURTHER NORTH
THERE APPEARS LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HIGHS TODAY
COULD GO EITHER WAY GIVEN THE MANY COMPLICATING FACTORS IN
PLAY...WITH BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY LEADING TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
ON MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK FAIRLY LOW HOWEVER...WITH POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH 00Z FRI BEFORE
DIVERGING.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO ITS SOLUTION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK CAPPED DURING THIS
STRETCH...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THIS AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS
OCCUR MONDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHTS.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF INTO QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A REBOUND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.  BUT MODELS
ADVERTISE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.   HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE DRY
CONDITIONS.  PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC...DUE TO
THE POP UP NATURE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION. OVERALL IT APPEARS A
CLUSTER OUT TO THE WEST IS HEADED FOR RHI...AND MAY AFFECT
AUW/CWA. BEYOND THAT WAITING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A BIT OF A BREAK LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS. A FEW OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 020754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ALONG AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 KM
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE ROUNDS IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC...HOWEVER THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS
DO OFFER SOME GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD AS THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THERE IS A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE. THEREFORE WILL
MODEL THE POPS AFTER THESE RUNS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS THE DAY
GOES ON.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE STANDS A CHANCE AT BEING SEVERE AS
MUCAPES SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE A THREAT. CLOSER INSPECTION OF LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...WHICH MEANS TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS. THESE FACTORS HAVE LED
TO AN UPGRADE OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE FACTORS IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
APPEARS TO BE AN MCS...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FORMING INTO A LARGE MCS.

DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COULD GET TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. ANY BREAK IN THIS
ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR. FURTHER NORTH
THERE APPEARS LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HIGHS TODAY
COULD GO EITHER WAY GIVEN THE MANY COMPLICATING FACTORS IN
PLAY...WITH BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY LEADING TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
ON MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK FAIRLY LOW HOWEVER...WITH POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH 00Z FRI BEFORE
DIVERGING.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO ITS SOLUTION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK CAPPED DURING THIS
STRETCH...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THIS AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS
OCCUR MONDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHTS.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF INTO QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A REBOUND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.  BUT MODELS
ADVERTISE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.   HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE DRY
CONDITIONS.  PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PCPN TRENDS ARE UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT...AS A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
SOME CAPPING HAS PREVENTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE ISOLD CONVECTION OCCURRING IN NW/WC WI.
MODELS ARE TENDING TO FAVOR THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION AND PULL BACK ON THE TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH. THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OR DIMINISH...BUT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY NE/EC WI WI DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW OF THE LATE
DAY STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LLWS LOOKS BORDERLINE OR VERY BRIEF OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT AT AUW/CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 020754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ALONG AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 KM
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE ROUNDS IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC...HOWEVER THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS
DO OFFER SOME GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD AS THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THERE IS A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE. THEREFORE WILL
MODEL THE POPS AFTER THESE RUNS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS THE DAY
GOES ON.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE STANDS A CHANCE AT BEING SEVERE AS
MUCAPES SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE A THREAT. CLOSER INSPECTION OF LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...WHICH MEANS TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS. THESE FACTORS HAVE LED
TO AN UPGRADE OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE FACTORS IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
APPEARS TO BE AN MCS...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FORMING INTO A LARGE MCS.

DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COULD GET TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. ANY BREAK IN THIS
ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR. FURTHER NORTH
THERE APPEARS LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HIGHS TODAY
COULD GO EITHER WAY GIVEN THE MANY COMPLICATING FACTORS IN
PLAY...WITH BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY LEADING TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
ON MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK FAIRLY LOW HOWEVER...WITH POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH 00Z FRI BEFORE
DIVERGING.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO ITS SOLUTION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK CAPPED DURING THIS
STRETCH...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THIS AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS
OCCUR MONDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHTS.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF INTO QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A REBOUND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.  BUT MODELS
ADVERTISE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.   HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE DRY
CONDITIONS.  PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PCPN TRENDS ARE UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT...AS A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
SOME CAPPING HAS PREVENTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE ISOLD CONVECTION OCCURRING IN NW/WC WI.
MODELS ARE TENDING TO FAVOR THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION AND PULL BACK ON THE TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH. THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OR DIMINISH...BUT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY NE/EC WI WI DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW OF THE LATE
DAY STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LLWS LOOKS BORDERLINE OR VERY BRIEF OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT AT AUW/CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 020343
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1043 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AFTER A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING...FORECAST QUICKLY GETS
INTERESTING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BRINGS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
RATHER PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DEEP MIXING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALLOWED SURFACE DEWPOINT TO
FALL INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS IOWA HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
MODEST CONVECTION ONGOING MOST OF THE DAY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NEAR LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
...MID-LEVEL AC HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THEN PUSH EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS HAD THE GENERAL IDEA ON THIS EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THEN MOVING IT EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED A BROAD BRUSH HIGH-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB WINDS VEER WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN
OR EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. RATHER IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOTABLE FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
RATHER LIMITED AND WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY 19-21Z AND THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE THEREAFTER. IF THE EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION PERSISTS LATER INTO THE MORNING...RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
BE SLOWER WITH THE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE SUNDAY MORNING. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...IF STORMS
CAN GET GOING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER AND 0-3 SHEAR IN
CONCERT WITH ROBUST FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY COULD
GENERATE LINEAR MCS CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM HUDSON/S BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. BREEZY...COOLER WEATHER
FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES BY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOL AIR ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT STAYS DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PCPN TRENDS ARE UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT...AS A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
SOME CAPPING HAS PREVENTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE ISOLD CONVECTION OCCURRING IN NW/WC WI.
MODELS ARE TENDING TO FAVOR THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION AND PULL BACK ON THE TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH. THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OR DIMINISH...BUT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY NE/EC WI WI DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW OF THE LATE
DAY STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LLWS LOOKS BORDERLINE OR VERY BRIEF OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT AT AUW/CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 020343
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1043 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AFTER A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING...FORECAST QUICKLY GETS
INTERESTING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BRINGS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
RATHER PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DEEP MIXING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALLOWED SURFACE DEWPOINT TO
FALL INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS IOWA HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
MODEST CONVECTION ONGOING MOST OF THE DAY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NEAR LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
...MID-LEVEL AC HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THEN PUSH EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS HAD THE GENERAL IDEA ON THIS EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THEN MOVING IT EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED A BROAD BRUSH HIGH-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB WINDS VEER WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN
OR EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. RATHER IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOTABLE FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
RATHER LIMITED AND WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY 19-21Z AND THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE THEREAFTER. IF THE EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION PERSISTS LATER INTO THE MORNING...RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
BE SLOWER WITH THE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE SUNDAY MORNING. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...IF STORMS
CAN GET GOING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER AND 0-3 SHEAR IN
CONCERT WITH ROBUST FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY COULD
GENERATE LINEAR MCS CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM HUDSON/S BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. BREEZY...COOLER WEATHER
FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES BY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOL AIR ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT STAYS DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PCPN TRENDS ARE UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT...AS A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
SOME CAPPING HAS PREVENTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE ISOLD CONVECTION OCCURRING IN NW/WC WI.
MODELS ARE TENDING TO FAVOR THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION AND PULL BACK ON THE TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH. THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OR DIMINISH...BUT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY NE/EC WI WI DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW OF THE LATE
DAY STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LLWS LOOKS BORDERLINE OR VERY BRIEF OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT AT AUW/CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 012348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AFTER A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING...FORECAST QUICKLY GETS
INTERESTING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BRINGS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
RATHER PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DEEP MIXING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALLOWED SURFACE DEWPOINT TO
FALL INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS IOWA HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
MODEST CONVECTION ONGOING MOST OF THE DAY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NEAR LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
...MID-LEVEL AC HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THEN PUSH EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS HAD THE GENERAL IDEA ON THIS EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THEN MOVING IT EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED A BROAD BRUSH HIGH-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB WINDS VEER WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN
OR EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. RATHER IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOTABLE FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
RATHER LIMITED AND WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY 19-21Z AND THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE THEREAFTER. IF THE EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION PERSISTS LATER INTO THE MORNING...RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
BE SLOWER WITH THE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE SUNDAY MORNING. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...IF STORMS
CAN GET GOING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER AND 0-3 SHEAR IN
CONCERT WITH ROBUST FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY COULD
GENERATE LINEAR MCS CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM HUDSON/S BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. BREEZY...COOLER WEATHER
FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES BY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOL AIR ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT STAYS DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVG...WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
ALTOCUMULUS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY NE/EC WI WI DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW
OF THE LATE DAY STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE LLWS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST
MENTIONED IT AT AUW/CWA. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS FOR
THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 012348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AFTER A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING...FORECAST QUICKLY GETS
INTERESTING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BRINGS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
RATHER PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DEEP MIXING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALLOWED SURFACE DEWPOINT TO
FALL INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS IOWA HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
MODEST CONVECTION ONGOING MOST OF THE DAY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NEAR LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
...MID-LEVEL AC HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THEN PUSH EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS HAD THE GENERAL IDEA ON THIS EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THEN MOVING IT EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED A BROAD BRUSH HIGH-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB WINDS VEER WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN
OR EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. RATHER IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOTABLE FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
RATHER LIMITED AND WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY 19-21Z AND THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE THEREAFTER. IF THE EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION PERSISTS LATER INTO THE MORNING...RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
BE SLOWER WITH THE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE SUNDAY MORNING. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...IF STORMS
CAN GET GOING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER AND 0-3 SHEAR IN
CONCERT WITH ROBUST FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY COULD
GENERATE LINEAR MCS CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM HUDSON/S BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. BREEZY...COOLER WEATHER
FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES BY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOL AIR ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT STAYS DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVG...WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
ALTOCUMULUS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY NE/EC WI WI DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW
OF THE LATE DAY STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE LLWS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST
MENTIONED IT AT AUW/CWA. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS FOR
THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 012348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AFTER A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING...FORECAST QUICKLY GETS
INTERESTING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BRINGS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
RATHER PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DEEP MIXING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALLOWED SURFACE DEWPOINT TO
FALL INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS IOWA HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
MODEST CONVECTION ONGOING MOST OF THE DAY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NEAR LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
...MID-LEVEL AC HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THEN PUSH EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS HAD THE GENERAL IDEA ON THIS EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THEN MOVING IT EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED A BROAD BRUSH HIGH-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB WINDS VEER WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN
OR EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. RATHER IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOTABLE FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
RATHER LIMITED AND WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY 19-21Z AND THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE THEREAFTER. IF THE EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION PERSISTS LATER INTO THE MORNING...RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
BE SLOWER WITH THE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE SUNDAY MORNING. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...IF STORMS
CAN GET GOING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER AND 0-3 SHEAR IN
CONCERT WITH ROBUST FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY COULD
GENERATE LINEAR MCS CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM HUDSON/S BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. BREEZY...COOLER WEATHER
FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES BY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOL AIR ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT STAYS DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVG...WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
ALTOCUMULUS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY NE/EC WI WI DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW
OF THE LATE DAY STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE LLWS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST
MENTIONED IT AT AUW/CWA. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS FOR
THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 012348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AFTER A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING...FORECAST QUICKLY GETS
INTERESTING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BRINGS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
RATHER PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DEEP MIXING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALLOWED SURFACE DEWPOINT TO
FALL INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS IOWA HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
MODEST CONVECTION ONGOING MOST OF THE DAY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NEAR LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
...MID-LEVEL AC HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THEN PUSH EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS HAD THE GENERAL IDEA ON THIS EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THEN MOVING IT EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED A BROAD BRUSH HIGH-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB WINDS VEER WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN
OR EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. RATHER IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOTABLE FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
RATHER LIMITED AND WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY 19-21Z AND THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE THEREAFTER. IF THE EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION PERSISTS LATER INTO THE MORNING...RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
BE SLOWER WITH THE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE SUNDAY MORNING. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...IF STORMS
CAN GET GOING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER AND 0-3 SHEAR IN
CONCERT WITH ROBUST FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY COULD
GENERATE LINEAR MCS CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM HUDSON/S BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. BREEZY...COOLER WEATHER
FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES BY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOL AIR ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT STAYS DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVG...WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
ALTOCUMULUS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY NE/EC WI WI DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW
OF THE LATE DAY STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE LLWS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST
MENTIONED IT AT AUW/CWA. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS FOR
THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 012056
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AFTER A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING...FORECAST QUICKLY GETS
INTERESTING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BRINGS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
RATHER PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DEEP MIXING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALLOWED SURFACE DEWPOINT TO
FALL INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS IOWA HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
MODEST CONVECTION ONGOING MOST OF THE DAY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NEAR LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
...MID-LEVEL AC HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THEN PUSH EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS HAD THE GENERAL IDEA ON THIS EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THEN MOVING IT EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED A BROAD BRUSH HIGH-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB WINDS VEER WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN
OR EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. RATHER IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOTABLE FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
RATHER LIMITED AND WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY 19-21Z AND THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE THEREAFTER. IF THE EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION PERSISTS LATER INTO THE MORNING...RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
BE SLOWER WITH THE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE SUNDAY MORNING. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...IF STORMS
CAN GET GOING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER AND 0-3 SHEAR IN
CONCERT WITH ROBUST FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY COULD
GENERATE LINEAR MCS CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM HUDSON/S BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. BREEZY...COOLER WEATHER
FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES BY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOL AIR ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT STAYS DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY WITH MAINLY HIGH-
BASED CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOME SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS TO ABOUT 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGCHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT MOST LIKELY
AREA TO SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REGARD...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MNM TO AUW.

SOME LLWS IS PSBL AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z...THEN AROUND 08Z AT
ATW/GRB/MTW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB




000
FXUS63 KGRB 012056
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AFTER A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING...FORECAST QUICKLY GETS
INTERESTING AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BRINGS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
RATHER PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DEEP MIXING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALLOWED SURFACE DEWPOINT TO
FALL INTO THE MID 40S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS IOWA HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTHERN DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
MODEST CONVECTION ONGOING MOST OF THE DAY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NEAR LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
...MID-LEVEL AC HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THEN PUSH EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS HAD THE GENERAL IDEA ON THIS EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THEN MOVING IT EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED A BROAD BRUSH HIGH-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB WINDS VEER WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN
OR EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. RATHER IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOTABLE FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
RATHER LIMITED AND WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN BY 19-21Z AND THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE THEREAFTER. IF THE EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION PERSISTS LATER INTO THE MORNING...RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
BE SLOWER WITH THE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE SUNDAY MORNING. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...IF STORMS
CAN GET GOING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER AND 0-3 SHEAR IN
CONCERT WITH ROBUST FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY COULD
GENERATE LINEAR MCS CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM HUDSON/S BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. BREEZY...COOLER WEATHER
FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES BY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOL AIR ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST COULD BRING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT STAYS DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY WITH MAINLY HIGH-
BASED CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOME SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS TO ABOUT 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGCHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT MOST LIKELY
AREA TO SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REGARD...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MNM TO AUW.

SOME LLWS IS PSBL AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z...THEN AROUND 08Z AT
ATW/GRB/MTW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011758
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH WIND SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
TRACKS EAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN MUCAPE VALUES
SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE GFS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
JUST ABOUT DOUBLE THAT AT AROUND 4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THE LESS
UNSTABLE GFS VERIFIES THAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN MARGINAL OR ON THE CUSP OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC OUTLOOKS...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL TRACK AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING WISCONSIN.  THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER SHIFTING THIS PATTERN TO THE EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WITH SB CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS.  WITH 0-
6KM AROUND 45 KTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
INVADE FROM THE NORTH.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
THOUGH WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS COLDER AIR
ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE IMPULSES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS.
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.  NOT UNREASONABLE THAT
ANY SHOWER THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIP RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY WITH MAINLY HIGH-
BASED CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOME SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS TO ABOUT 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGCHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT MOST LIKELY
AREA TO SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REGARD...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MNM TO AUW.

SOME LLWS IS PSBL AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z...THEN AROUND 08Z AT
ATW/GRB/MTW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ESB





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011758
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH WIND SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
TRACKS EAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN MUCAPE VALUES
SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE GFS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
JUST ABOUT DOUBLE THAT AT AROUND 4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THE LESS
UNSTABLE GFS VERIFIES THAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN MARGINAL OR ON THE CUSP OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC OUTLOOKS...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL TRACK AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING WISCONSIN.  THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER SHIFTING THIS PATTERN TO THE EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WITH SB CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS.  WITH 0-
6KM AROUND 45 KTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
INVADE FROM THE NORTH.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
THOUGH WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS COLDER AIR
ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE IMPULSES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS.
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.  NOT UNREASONABLE THAT
ANY SHOWER THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIP RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY WITH MAINLY HIGH-
BASED CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOME SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS TO ABOUT 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGCHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT MOST LIKELY
AREA TO SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REGARD...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MNM TO AUW.

SOME LLWS IS PSBL AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z...THEN AROUND 08Z AT
ATW/GRB/MTW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ESB




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011758
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH WIND SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
TRACKS EAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN MUCAPE VALUES
SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE GFS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
JUST ABOUT DOUBLE THAT AT AROUND 4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THE LESS
UNSTABLE GFS VERIFIES THAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN MARGINAL OR ON THE CUSP OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC OUTLOOKS...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL TRACK AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING WISCONSIN.  THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER SHIFTING THIS PATTERN TO THE EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WITH SB CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS.  WITH 0-
6KM AROUND 45 KTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
INVADE FROM THE NORTH.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
THOUGH WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS COLDER AIR
ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE IMPULSES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS.
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.  NOT UNREASONABLE THAT
ANY SHOWER THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIP RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY WITH MAINLY HIGH-
BASED CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOME SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS TO ABOUT 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGCHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT MOST LIKELY
AREA TO SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REGARD...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MNM TO AUW.

SOME LLWS IS PSBL AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z...THEN AROUND 08Z AT
ATW/GRB/MTW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ESB





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011758
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH WIND SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
TRACKS EAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN MUCAPE VALUES
SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE GFS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
JUST ABOUT DOUBLE THAT AT AROUND 4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THE LESS
UNSTABLE GFS VERIFIES THAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN MARGINAL OR ON THE CUSP OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC OUTLOOKS...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL TRACK AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING WISCONSIN.  THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER SHIFTING THIS PATTERN TO THE EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WITH SB CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS.  WITH 0-
6KM AROUND 45 KTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
INVADE FROM THE NORTH.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
THOUGH WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS COLDER AIR
ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE IMPULSES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS.
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.  NOT UNREASONABLE THAT
ANY SHOWER THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIP RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY WITH MAINLY HIGH-
BASED CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOME SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS TO ABOUT 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGCHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT MOST LIKELY
AREA TO SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER ABOUT 08Z. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REGARD...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MNM TO AUW.

SOME LLWS IS PSBL AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z...THEN AROUND 08Z AT
ATW/GRB/MTW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ESB




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH WIND SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
TRACKS EAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN MUCAPE VALUES
SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE GFS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
JUST ABOUT DOUBLE THAT AT AROUND 4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THE LESS
UNSTABLE GFS VERIFIES THAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN MARGINAL OR ON THE CUSP OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC OUTLOOKS...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL TRACK AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING WISCONSIN.  THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER SHIFTING THIS PATTERN TO THE EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WITH SB CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS.  WITH 0-
6KM AROUND 45 KTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
INVADE FROM THE NORTH.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
THOUGH WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS COLDER AIR
ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE IMPULSES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS.
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.  NOT UNREASONABLE THAT
ANY SHOWER THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIP RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS A SURGE OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. PLACED A PROB30 GROUP IN LATE
TONIGHT FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER AS COVERAGE IS NOT
CERTAIN. SOME LLWS IS PSBL AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z...THEN AROUND
08Z AT ATW/GRB/MTW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH WIND SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
TRACKS EAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN MUCAPE VALUES
SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE GFS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
JUST ABOUT DOUBLE THAT AT AROUND 4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THE LESS
UNSTABLE GFS VERIFIES THAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN MARGINAL OR ON THE CUSP OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC OUTLOOKS...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL TRACK AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING WISCONSIN.  THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER SHIFTING THIS PATTERN TO THE EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WITH SB CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS.  WITH 0-
6KM AROUND 45 KTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
INVADE FROM THE NORTH.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
THOUGH WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS COLDER AIR
ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE IMPULSES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS.
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.  NOT UNREASONABLE THAT
ANY SHOWER THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIP RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS A SURGE OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. PLACED A PROB30 GROUP IN LATE
TONIGHT FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER AS COVERAGE IS NOT
CERTAIN. SOME LLWS IS PSBL AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z...THEN AROUND
08Z AT ATW/GRB/MTW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 010800
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH WIND SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
TRACKS EAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN MUCAPE VALUES
SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE GFS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
JUST ABOUT DOUBLE THAT AT AROUND 4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THE LESS
UNSTABLE GFS VERIFIES THAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN MARGINAL OR ON THE CUSP OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC OUTLOOKS...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL TRACK AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING WISCONSIN.  THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER SHIFTING THIS PATTERN TO THE EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WITH SB CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS.  WITH 0-
6KM AROUND 45 KTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
INVADE FROM THE NORTH.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
THOUGH WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS COLDER AIR
ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE IMPULSES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS.
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.  NOT UNREASONABLE THAT
ANY SHOWER THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIP RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE OVER NC WI...WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS PAST EVENING. SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.

SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI TOWARD
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A SURGE OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
ARRIVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME LLWS IS PSBL
AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z/SUN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 010800
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH WIND SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
TRACKS EAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN MUCAPE VALUES
SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE GFS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
JUST ABOUT DOUBLE THAT AT AROUND 4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THE LESS
UNSTABLE GFS VERIFIES THAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN MARGINAL OR ON THE CUSP OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC OUTLOOKS...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL TRACK AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING WISCONSIN.  THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER SHIFTING THIS PATTERN TO THE EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WITH SB CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS.  WITH 0-
6KM AROUND 45 KTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
INVADE FROM THE NORTH.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
THOUGH WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS COLDER AIR
ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE IMPULSES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS.
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.  NOT UNREASONABLE THAT
ANY SHOWER THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIP RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE OVER NC WI...WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS PAST EVENING. SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.

SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI TOWARD
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A SURGE OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
ARRIVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME LLWS IS PSBL
AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z/SUN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 010351
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1051 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WL
UNDERGO SLOW AMPLIFICATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPR TROF WL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE A
REPLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT MODESTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. PCPN CHCS WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO SHRTWVS DROPPING INTO
THE ERN TROF. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...PCPN
TOTALS AT MOST LOCATIONS WL PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THOUGH GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...SOME
LCNS COULD RECEIVE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LOTS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 6000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNSET. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS AGAIN BUT
PROBABLY NO SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. WINDS SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV FCST. SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST REMAIN
RATHER ELUSIVE GIVEN THAT THEY WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. TDA/S OP
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS GONE BACK TO BEING A LITTLE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
PCPN SAT NGT WHEN COMPARED TO YDA. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATE SUN/SUN EVENING ENDS UP WITH GREATER
COVERAGE/MORE PCPN ACRS THE AREA AS UPR SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF QG
FORCING IS BETTER AT THAT TIME. NEITHER PERIOD SEEMED WORTHY OF
MORE THAN CHC POPS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COVERAGE
CONCERNS.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY WX WL
FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH HARD TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK GIVEN CONTD PASSAGE OF WK SHRTWVS IN
NW UPR FLOW.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ABV NORMAL...THE
UPR FLOW TILTING MORE NWLY WL BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIG CHGS MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE OVER NC WI...WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS PAST EVENING. SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.

SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI TOWARD
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A SURGE OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
ARRIVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME LLWS IS PSBL
AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z/SUN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 010351
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1051 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WL
UNDERGO SLOW AMPLIFICATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPR TROF WL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE A
REPLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT MODESTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. PCPN CHCS WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO SHRTWVS DROPPING INTO
THE ERN TROF. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...PCPN
TOTALS AT MOST LOCATIONS WL PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THOUGH GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...SOME
LCNS COULD RECEIVE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LOTS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 6000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNSET. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS AGAIN BUT
PROBABLY NO SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. WINDS SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV FCST. SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST REMAIN
RATHER ELUSIVE GIVEN THAT THEY WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. TDA/S OP
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS GONE BACK TO BEING A LITTLE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
PCPN SAT NGT WHEN COMPARED TO YDA. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATE SUN/SUN EVENING ENDS UP WITH GREATER
COVERAGE/MORE PCPN ACRS THE AREA AS UPR SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF QG
FORCING IS BETTER AT THAT TIME. NEITHER PERIOD SEEMED WORTHY OF
MORE THAN CHC POPS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COVERAGE
CONCERNS.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY WX WL
FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH HARD TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK GIVEN CONTD PASSAGE OF WK SHRTWVS IN
NW UPR FLOW.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ABV NORMAL...THE
UPR FLOW TILTING MORE NWLY WL BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIG CHGS MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE OVER NC WI...WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS PAST EVENING. SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.

SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI TOWARD
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A SURGE OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
ARRIVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME LLWS IS PSBL
AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z/SUN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 010351
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1051 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WL
UNDERGO SLOW AMPLIFICATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPR TROF WL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE A
REPLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT MODESTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. PCPN CHCS WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO SHRTWVS DROPPING INTO
THE ERN TROF. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...PCPN
TOTALS AT MOST LOCATIONS WL PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THOUGH GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...SOME
LCNS COULD RECEIVE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LOTS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 6000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNSET. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS AGAIN BUT
PROBABLY NO SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. WINDS SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV FCST. SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST REMAIN
RATHER ELUSIVE GIVEN THAT THEY WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. TDA/S OP
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS GONE BACK TO BEING A LITTLE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
PCPN SAT NGT WHEN COMPARED TO YDA. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATE SUN/SUN EVENING ENDS UP WITH GREATER
COVERAGE/MORE PCPN ACRS THE AREA AS UPR SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF QG
FORCING IS BETTER AT THAT TIME. NEITHER PERIOD SEEMED WORTHY OF
MORE THAN CHC POPS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COVERAGE
CONCERNS.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY WX WL
FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH HARD TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK GIVEN CONTD PASSAGE OF WK SHRTWVS IN
NW UPR FLOW.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ABV NORMAL...THE
UPR FLOW TILTING MORE NWLY WL BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIG CHGS MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE OVER NC WI...WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS PAST EVENING. SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.

SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI TOWARD
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A SURGE OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
ARRIVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME LLWS IS PSBL
AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z/SUN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 312350
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WL
UNDERGO SLOW AMPLIFICATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPR TROF WL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE A
REPLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT MODESTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. PCPN CHCS WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO SHRTWVS DROPPING INTO
THE ERN TROF. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...PCPN
TOTALS AT MOST LOCATIONS WL PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THOUGH GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...SOME
LCNS COULD RECEIVE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LOTS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 6000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNSET. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS AGAIN BUT
PROBABLY NO SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. WINDS SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV FCST. SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST REMAIN
RATHER ELUSIVE GIVEN THAT THEY WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. TDA/S OP
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS GONE BACK TO BEING A LITTLE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
PCPN SAT NGT WHEN COMPARED TO YDA. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATE SUN/SUN EVENING ENDS UP WITH GREATER
COVERAGE/MORE PCPN ACRS THE AREA AS UPR SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF QG
FORCING IS BETTER AT THAT TIME. NEITHER PERIOD SEEMED WORTHY OF
MORE THAN CHC POPS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COVERAGE
CONCERNS.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY WX WL
FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH HARD TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK GIVEN CONTD PASSAGE OF WK SHRTWVS IN
NW UPR FLOW.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ABV NORMAL...THE
UPR FLOW TILTING MORE NWLY WL BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIG CHGS MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL END OVER NC/NE WI EARLY THIS
EVENING AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
SUNSET...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY SCT
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 312350
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WL
UNDERGO SLOW AMPLIFICATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPR TROF WL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE A
REPLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT MODESTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. PCPN CHCS WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO SHRTWVS DROPPING INTO
THE ERN TROF. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...PCPN
TOTALS AT MOST LOCATIONS WL PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THOUGH GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...SOME
LCNS COULD RECEIVE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LOTS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 6000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNSET. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS AGAIN BUT
PROBABLY NO SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. WINDS SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV FCST. SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST REMAIN
RATHER ELUSIVE GIVEN THAT THEY WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. TDA/S OP
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS GONE BACK TO BEING A LITTLE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
PCPN SAT NGT WHEN COMPARED TO YDA. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATE SUN/SUN EVENING ENDS UP WITH GREATER
COVERAGE/MORE PCPN ACRS THE AREA AS UPR SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF QG
FORCING IS BETTER AT THAT TIME. NEITHER PERIOD SEEMED WORTHY OF
MORE THAN CHC POPS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COVERAGE
CONCERNS.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY WX WL
FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH HARD TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK GIVEN CONTD PASSAGE OF WK SHRTWVS IN
NW UPR FLOW.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ABV NORMAL...THE
UPR FLOW TILTING MORE NWLY WL BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIG CHGS MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL END OVER NC/NE WI EARLY THIS
EVENING AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
SUNSET...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY SCT
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 311923
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
223 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WL
UNDERGO SLOW AMPLIFICATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPR TROF WL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE A
REPLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT MODESTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. PCPN CHCS WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO SHRTWVS DROPPING INTO
THE ERN TROF. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...PCPN
TOTALS AT MOST LOCATIONS WL PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THOUGH GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...SOME
LCNS COULD RECEIVE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LOTS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 6000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNSET. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS AGAIN BUT
PROBABLY NO SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. WINDS SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV FCST. SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST REMAIN
RATHER ELUSIVE GIVEN THAT THEY WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. TDA/S OP
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS GONE BACK TO BEING A LITTLE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
PCPN SAT NGT WHEN COMPARED TO YDA. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATE SUN/SUN EVENING ENDS UP WITH GREATER
COVERAGE/MORE PCPN ACRS THE AREA AS UPR SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF QG
FORCING IS BETTER AT THAT TIME. NEITHER PERIOD SEEMED WORTHY OF
MORE THAN CHC POPS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COVERAGE
CONCERNS.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY WX WL
FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH HARD TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK GIVEN CONTD PASSAGE OF WK SHRTWVS IN
NW UPR FLOW.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ABV NORMAL...THE
UPR FLOW TILTING MORE NWLY WL BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIG CHGS MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM BY MIDNIGHT. VFR WEATHER
SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 311923
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
223 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WL
UNDERGO SLOW AMPLIFICATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPR TROF WL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE A
REPLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT MODESTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. PCPN CHCS WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO SHRTWVS DROPPING INTO
THE ERN TROF. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...PCPN
TOTALS AT MOST LOCATIONS WL PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THOUGH GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...SOME
LCNS COULD RECEIVE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LOTS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 6000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNSET. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS AGAIN BUT
PROBABLY NO SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. WINDS SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV FCST. SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST REMAIN
RATHER ELUSIVE GIVEN THAT THEY WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. TDA/S OP
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS GONE BACK TO BEING A LITTLE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
PCPN SAT NGT WHEN COMPARED TO YDA. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATE SUN/SUN EVENING ENDS UP WITH GREATER
COVERAGE/MORE PCPN ACRS THE AREA AS UPR SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF QG
FORCING IS BETTER AT THAT TIME. NEITHER PERIOD SEEMED WORTHY OF
MORE THAN CHC POPS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COVERAGE
CONCERNS.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY WX WL
FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH HARD TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK GIVEN CONTD PASSAGE OF WK SHRTWVS IN
NW UPR FLOW.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ABV NORMAL...THE
UPR FLOW TILTING MORE NWLY WL BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIG CHGS MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM BY MIDNIGHT. VFR WEATHER
SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......RDM





000
FXUS63 KGRB 311745
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY IN THAT WE WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKS THROUGH THE UP OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS...AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 TO 200 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE HI-RES RUNS AND NWP MODELS...WITH AT BEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING TODAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PLACE THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUE...INCLUDING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION.  MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 LAST NIGHT...BEFORE
TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS.  BUT THE LATEST RUNS BRING
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.  NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.  THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF BOTH FEATURES MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THEM LOW.  THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE START OF MONDAY MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CHANNELED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.  NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM BY MIDNIGHT. VFR
WEATHER SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 311745
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY IN THAT WE WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKS THROUGH THE UP OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS...AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 TO 200 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE HI-RES RUNS AND NWP MODELS...WITH AT BEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING TODAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PLACE THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUE...INCLUDING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION.  MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 LAST NIGHT...BEFORE
TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS.  BUT THE LATEST RUNS BRING
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.  NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.  THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF BOTH FEATURES MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THEM LOW.  THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE START OF MONDAY MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CHANNELED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.  NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM BY MIDNIGHT. VFR
WEATHER SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM





000
FXUS63 KGRB 311745
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY IN THAT WE WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKS THROUGH THE UP OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS...AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 TO 200 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE HI-RES RUNS AND NWP MODELS...WITH AT BEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING TODAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PLACE THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUE...INCLUDING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION.  MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 LAST NIGHT...BEFORE
TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS.  BUT THE LATEST RUNS BRING
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.  NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.  THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF BOTH FEATURES MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THEM LOW.  THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE START OF MONDAY MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CHANNELED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.  NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM BY MIDNIGHT. VFR
WEATHER SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 311745
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY IN THAT WE WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKS THROUGH THE UP OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS...AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 TO 200 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE HI-RES RUNS AND NWP MODELS...WITH AT BEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING TODAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PLACE THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUE...INCLUDING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION.  MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 LAST NIGHT...BEFORE
TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS.  BUT THE LATEST RUNS BRING
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.  NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.  THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF BOTH FEATURES MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THEM LOW.  THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE START OF MONDAY MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CHANNELED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.  NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM BY MIDNIGHT. VFR
WEATHER SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM





000
FXUS63 KGRB 311120
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY IN THAT WE WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKS THROUGH THE UP OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS...AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 TO 200 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE HI-RES RUNS AND NWP MODELS...WITH AT BEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING TODAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PLACE THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUE...INCLUDING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION.  MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 LAST NIGHT...BEFORE
TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS.  BUT THE LATEST RUNS BRING
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.  NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.  THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF BOTH FEATURES MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THEM LOW.  THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE START OF MONDAY MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CHANNELED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.  NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO
COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OR NOTHING ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF THE BORDER. VFR CIGS
WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE ODDS OF ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES SEEM LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE
TAFS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 311120
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY IN THAT WE WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKS THROUGH THE UP OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS...AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 TO 200 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE HI-RES RUNS AND NWP MODELS...WITH AT BEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING TODAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PLACE THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUE...INCLUDING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION.  MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 LAST NIGHT...BEFORE
TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS.  BUT THE LATEST RUNS BRING
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.  NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.  THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF BOTH FEATURES MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THEM LOW.  THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE START OF MONDAY MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CHANNELED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.  NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO
COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OR NOTHING ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF THE BORDER. VFR CIGS
WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE ODDS OF ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES SEEM LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE
TAFS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 310815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY IN THAT WE WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKS THROUGH THE UP OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS...AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 TO 200 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE HI-RES RUNS AND NWP MODELS...WITH AT BEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING TODAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PLACE THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUE...INCLUDING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION.  MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 LAST NIGHT...BEFORE
TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS.  BUT THE LATEST RUNS BRING
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.  NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.  THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF BOTH FEATURES MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THEM LOW.  THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE START OF MONDAY MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CHANNELED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.  NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
ONTARIO COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NOTHING ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF THE BORDER.
VFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE ODDS OF ANY OF THE
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES SEEM LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 310815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY IN THAT WE WILL START OUT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SASKATCHEWAN...TRACKS THROUGH THE UP OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
VIGOROUS...AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 TO 200 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE HI-RES RUNS AND NWP MODELS...WITH AT BEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER IN ANYTHING DEVELOPING TODAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PLACE THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUE...INCLUDING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TRY TO BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION.  MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 LAST NIGHT...BEFORE
TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS.  BUT THE LATEST RUNS BRING
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.  NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.  THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF BOTH FEATURES MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THEM LOW.  THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE START OF MONDAY MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CHANNELED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.  NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
ONTARIO COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NOTHING ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF THE BORDER.
VFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE ODDS OF ANY OF THE
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES SEEM LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 310440
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1140 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS CURRENTLY ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS...HAS LIMITED AMPLITUDE...AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND
A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE...WITH THE
UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. THAT WL TILT THE UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST
AREA MORE NWLY WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND 4-8F DEG ABV NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD
TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN...LIKELY
DROPPING TEMPS TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PCPN
CHCS WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE VERY HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO OUR
S...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. ALTHOUGH
ALL IT TAKES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ONE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
SUPPLY A NORMAL WEEKS WORTH OF PCPN...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST
AREAS WL END UP RECEIVING BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA AND HEADING FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH NW
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6-7K/KM...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG AT BEST...BUT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V-LIKE SIGNATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHAS BETTER QG
FORCING GIVES SOME ADDED LIFT.WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...STAYED CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH A HINT OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE THROWN
IN.

FRIDAYS SET UP LOOKS A LOT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY AND DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH NE
WI SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL...HAVE
DOUBTS SHOWERS WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
DEFINED TODAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LFQ OF A STRONG 300MB JETSTREAK BRUSHING NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFINED
PCPN TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DAYTIME TEMPS WL CONT ABV NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN EVENTUALLY
COOL AS THE UPR FLOW TILTS NWLY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST GIVEN THE
PATTERN. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. CURRENT OP MODEL SUITE
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR THE PCPN WE/VE BEEN CARRYING FOR SAT
NGT...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS NOW TAKING THAT THROUGH TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. LATE SUN/SUN NGT LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN AT THIS
POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THINGS COULD LOOK
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOMORROW. STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR
SAT NGT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NGT.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED
ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
ONTARIO COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NOTHING ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF THE BORDER.
VFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE ODDS OF ANY OF THE
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES SEEM LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 310440
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1140 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS CURRENTLY ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS...HAS LIMITED AMPLITUDE...AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND
A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE...WITH THE
UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. THAT WL TILT THE UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST
AREA MORE NWLY WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND 4-8F DEG ABV NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD
TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN...LIKELY
DROPPING TEMPS TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PCPN
CHCS WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE VERY HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO OUR
S...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. ALTHOUGH
ALL IT TAKES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ONE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
SUPPLY A NORMAL WEEKS WORTH OF PCPN...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST
AREAS WL END UP RECEIVING BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA AND HEADING FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH NW
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6-7K/KM...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG AT BEST...BUT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V-LIKE SIGNATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHAS BETTER QG
FORCING GIVES SOME ADDED LIFT.WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...STAYED CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH A HINT OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE THROWN
IN.

FRIDAYS SET UP LOOKS A LOT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY AND DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH NE
WI SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL...HAVE
DOUBTS SHOWERS WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
DEFINED TODAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LFQ OF A STRONG 300MB JETSTREAK BRUSHING NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFINED
PCPN TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DAYTIME TEMPS WL CONT ABV NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN EVENTUALLY
COOL AS THE UPR FLOW TILTS NWLY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST GIVEN THE
PATTERN. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. CURRENT OP MODEL SUITE
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR THE PCPN WE/VE BEEN CARRYING FOR SAT
NGT...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS NOW TAKING THAT THROUGH TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. LATE SUN/SUN NGT LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN AT THIS
POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THINGS COULD LOOK
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOMORROW. STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR
SAT NGT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NGT.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED
ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
ONTARIO COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NOTHING ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF THE BORDER.
VFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE ODDS OF ANY OF THE
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES SEEM LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 302359
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS CURRENTLY ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS...HAS LIMITED AMPLITUDE...AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND
A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE...WITH THE
UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. THAT WL TILT THE UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST
AREA MORE NWLY WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND 4-8F DEG ABV NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD
TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN...LIKELY
DROPPING TEMPS TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PCPN
CHCS WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE VERY HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO OUR
S...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. ALTHOUGH
ALL IT TAKES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ONE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
SUPPLY A NORMAL WEEKS WORTH OF PCPN...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST
AREAS WL END UP RECEIVING BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA AND HEADING FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH NW
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6-7K/KM...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG AT BEST...BUT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V-LIKE SIGNATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHAS BETTER QG
FORCING GIVES SOME ADDED LIFT.WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...STAYED CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH A HINT OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE THROWN
IN.

FRIDAYS SET UP LOOKS A LOT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY AND DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH NE
WI SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL...HAVE
DOUBTS SHOWERS WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
DEFINED TODAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LFQ OF A STRONG 300MB JETSTREAK BRUSHING NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFINED
PCPN TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DAYTIME TEMPS WL CONT ABV NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN EVENTUALLY
COOL AS THE UPR FLOW TILTS NWLY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST GIVEN THE
PATTERN. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. CURRENT OP MODEL SUITE
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR THE PCPN WE/VE BEEN CARRYING FOR SAT
NGT...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS NOW TAKING THAT THROUGH TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. LATE SUN/SUN NGT LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN AT THIS
POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THINGS COULD LOOK
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOMORROW. STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR
SAT NGT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NGT.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED
ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WERE
DIMINISHING AS SUNSET APPROACHED. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF OR EXIT
THE AREA BY 01Z TO 02Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

BUFKIT OVERVIEW OF THE 18Z NAM AND 18Z GFS SHOWED MOISTURE IN A
LAYER FROM ABOUT 4000FT TO 6000FT...SO HAVE SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FORECAST IN THAT HEIGHT RANGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT ODDS OF THEM IMPACTING
ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 302359
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS CURRENTLY ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS...HAS LIMITED AMPLITUDE...AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND
A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE...WITH THE
UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. THAT WL TILT THE UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST
AREA MORE NWLY WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND 4-8F DEG ABV NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD
TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN...LIKELY
DROPPING TEMPS TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PCPN
CHCS WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE VERY HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO OUR
S...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. ALTHOUGH
ALL IT TAKES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ONE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
SUPPLY A NORMAL WEEKS WORTH OF PCPN...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST
AREAS WL END UP RECEIVING BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA AND HEADING FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH NW
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6-7K/KM...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG AT BEST...BUT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V-LIKE SIGNATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHAS BETTER QG
FORCING GIVES SOME ADDED LIFT.WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...STAYED CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH A HINT OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE THROWN
IN.

FRIDAYS SET UP LOOKS A LOT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY AND DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH NE
WI SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL...HAVE
DOUBTS SHOWERS WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
DEFINED TODAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LFQ OF A STRONG 300MB JETSTREAK BRUSHING NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFINED
PCPN TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DAYTIME TEMPS WL CONT ABV NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN EVENTUALLY
COOL AS THE UPR FLOW TILTS NWLY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST GIVEN THE
PATTERN. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. CURRENT OP MODEL SUITE
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR THE PCPN WE/VE BEEN CARRYING FOR SAT
NGT...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS NOW TAKING THAT THROUGH TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. LATE SUN/SUN NGT LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN AT THIS
POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THINGS COULD LOOK
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOMORROW. STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR
SAT NGT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NGT.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED
ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WERE
DIMINISHING AS SUNSET APPROACHED. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF OR EXIT
THE AREA BY 01Z TO 02Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

BUFKIT OVERVIEW OF THE 18Z NAM AND 18Z GFS SHOWED MOISTURE IN A
LAYER FROM ABOUT 4000FT TO 6000FT...SO HAVE SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FORECAST IN THAT HEIGHT RANGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT ODDS OF THEM IMPACTING
ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 302359
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS CURRENTLY ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS...HAS LIMITED AMPLITUDE...AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND
A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE...WITH THE
UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. THAT WL TILT THE UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST
AREA MORE NWLY WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND 4-8F DEG ABV NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD
TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN...LIKELY
DROPPING TEMPS TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PCPN
CHCS WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE VERY HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO OUR
S...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. ALTHOUGH
ALL IT TAKES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ONE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
SUPPLY A NORMAL WEEKS WORTH OF PCPN...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST
AREAS WL END UP RECEIVING BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA AND HEADING FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH NW
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6-7K/KM...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG AT BEST...BUT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V-LIKE SIGNATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHAS BETTER QG
FORCING GIVES SOME ADDED LIFT.WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...STAYED CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH A HINT OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE THROWN
IN.

FRIDAYS SET UP LOOKS A LOT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY AND DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH NE
WI SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL...HAVE
DOUBTS SHOWERS WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
DEFINED TODAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LFQ OF A STRONG 300MB JETSTREAK BRUSHING NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFINED
PCPN TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DAYTIME TEMPS WL CONT ABV NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN EVENTUALLY
COOL AS THE UPR FLOW TILTS NWLY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST GIVEN THE
PATTERN. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. CURRENT OP MODEL SUITE
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR THE PCPN WE/VE BEEN CARRYING FOR SAT
NGT...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS NOW TAKING THAT THROUGH TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. LATE SUN/SUN NGT LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN AT THIS
POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THINGS COULD LOOK
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOMORROW. STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR
SAT NGT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NGT.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED
ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WERE
DIMINISHING AS SUNSET APPROACHED. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF OR EXIT
THE AREA BY 01Z TO 02Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

BUFKIT OVERVIEW OF THE 18Z NAM AND 18Z GFS SHOWED MOISTURE IN A
LAYER FROM ABOUT 4000FT TO 6000FT...SO HAVE SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FORECAST IN THAT HEIGHT RANGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT ODDS OF THEM IMPACTING
ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 302359
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS CURRENTLY ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS...HAS LIMITED AMPLITUDE...AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND
A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE...WITH THE
UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. THAT WL TILT THE UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST
AREA MORE NWLY WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND 4-8F DEG ABV NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD
TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN...LIKELY
DROPPING TEMPS TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PCPN
CHCS WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE VERY HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO OUR
S...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. ALTHOUGH
ALL IT TAKES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ONE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
SUPPLY A NORMAL WEEKS WORTH OF PCPN...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST
AREAS WL END UP RECEIVING BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA AND HEADING FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH NW
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6-7K/KM...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG AT BEST...BUT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V-LIKE SIGNATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHAS BETTER QG
FORCING GIVES SOME ADDED LIFT.WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...STAYED CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH A HINT OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE THROWN
IN.

FRIDAYS SET UP LOOKS A LOT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY AND DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH NE
WI SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL...HAVE
DOUBTS SHOWERS WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
DEFINED TODAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LFQ OF A STRONG 300MB JETSTREAK BRUSHING NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFINED
PCPN TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DAYTIME TEMPS WL CONT ABV NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN EVENTUALLY
COOL AS THE UPR FLOW TILTS NWLY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST GIVEN THE
PATTERN. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. CURRENT OP MODEL SUITE
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR THE PCPN WE/VE BEEN CARRYING FOR SAT
NGT...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS NOW TAKING THAT THROUGH TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. LATE SUN/SUN NGT LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN AT THIS
POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THINGS COULD LOOK
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOMORROW. STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR
SAT NGT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NGT.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED
ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WERE
DIMINISHING AS SUNSET APPROACHED. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF OR EXIT
THE AREA BY 01Z TO 02Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

BUFKIT OVERVIEW OF THE 18Z NAM AND 18Z GFS SHOWED MOISTURE IN A
LAYER FROM ABOUT 4000FT TO 6000FT...SO HAVE SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FORECAST IN THAT HEIGHT RANGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT ODDS OF THEM IMPACTING
ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 301927
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS CURRENTLY ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS...HAS LIMITED AMPLITUDE...AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND
A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE...WITH THE
UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. THAT WL TILT THE UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST
AREA MORE NWLY WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND 4-8F DEG ABV NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD
TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN...LIKELY
DROPPING TEMPS TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PCPN
CHCS WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE VERY HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO OUR
S...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. ALTHOUGH
ALL IT TAKES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ONE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
SUPPLY A NORMAL WEEKS WORTH OF PCPN...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST
AREAS WL END UP RECEIVING BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA AND HEADING FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH NW
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6-7K/KM...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG AT BEST...BUT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V-LIKE SIGNATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHAS BETTER QG
FORCING GIVES SOME ADDED LIFT.WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...STAYED CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH A HINT OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE THROWN
IN.

FRIDAYS SET UP LOOKS A LOT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY AND DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH NE
WI SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL...HAVE
DOUBTS SHOWERS WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
DEFINED TODAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LFQ OF A STRONG 300MB JETSTREAK BRUSHING NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFINED
PCPN TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DAYTIME TEMPS WL CONT ABV NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN EVENTUALLY
COOL AS THE UPR FLOW TILTS NWLY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST GIVEN THE
PATTERN. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. CURRENT OP MODEL SUITE
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR THE PCPN WE/VE BEEN CARRYING FOR SAT
NGT...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS NOW TAKING THAT THROUGH TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. LATE SUN/SUN NGT LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN AT THIS
POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THINGS COULD LOOK
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOMORROW. STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR
SAT NGT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NGT.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED
ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH THE STATE. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
AFFECT RHI...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO TAF AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP ON EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP AND WILL ADD IF COVERAGE IS GREATER AND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATE CURRENTLY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NE
WISCONSIN WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. PCPN/CIGS/WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY SWINGING THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY TO THE NORTH. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 301927
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS CURRENTLY ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS...HAS LIMITED AMPLITUDE...AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND
A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE...WITH THE
UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. THAT WL TILT THE UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST
AREA MORE NWLY WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND 4-8F DEG ABV NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD
TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN...LIKELY
DROPPING TEMPS TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PCPN
CHCS WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE VERY HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO OUR
S...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. ALTHOUGH
ALL IT TAKES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ONE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
SUPPLY A NORMAL WEEKS WORTH OF PCPN...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST
AREAS WL END UP RECEIVING BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA AND HEADING FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH NW
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6-7K/KM...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG AT BEST...BUT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V-LIKE SIGNATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHAS BETTER QG
FORCING GIVES SOME ADDED LIFT.WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...STAYED CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH A HINT OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE THROWN
IN.

FRIDAYS SET UP LOOKS A LOT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY AND DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH NE
WI SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL...HAVE
DOUBTS SHOWERS WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
DEFINED TODAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LFQ OF A STRONG 300MB JETSTREAK BRUSHING NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFINED
PCPN TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DAYTIME TEMPS WL CONT ABV NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN EVENTUALLY
COOL AS THE UPR FLOW TILTS NWLY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST GIVEN THE
PATTERN. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. CURRENT OP MODEL SUITE
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR THE PCPN WE/VE BEEN CARRYING FOR SAT
NGT...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS NOW TAKING THAT THROUGH TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. LATE SUN/SUN NGT LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN AT THIS
POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THINGS COULD LOOK
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOMORROW. STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR
SAT NGT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NGT.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED
ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH THE STATE. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
AFFECT RHI...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO TAF AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP ON EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP AND WILL ADD IF COVERAGE IS GREATER AND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATE CURRENTLY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NE
WISCONSIN WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. PCPN/CIGS/WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY SWINGING THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY TO THE NORTH. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 301647
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1147 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WILL
TRACK ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THIS
REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. NWP MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS...SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS STILL DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPES OF 500 TO 700
J/KG. GIVEN THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA EXPERIENCED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY MORNING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH...LOWER
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD GET INTO
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RATHER QUICKLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO.  SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH THE ECMWF SHOWS BETTER THAN
THE GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANNELED SHORTWAVES WILL BE
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THEY
MAY BRING SCATTERED MID-CLOUDS AT TIMES...PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER THREATS.  THIS TREND CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WHEN
ANY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SHORTWAVES WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  SOUNDINGS AGAIN HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING BELOW
700MB SO THINK THE ECMWF IS TOO PESSIMISTIC IN GENERATING PRECIP SAT
AFTERNOON.  WILL THEREFORE STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST.  PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY
BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.  THIS BACKING
FLOW WILL SUPPORT 925-700MB THETAE ADVECTION WHICH WILL BETTER
TARGET CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN FURTHER NORTH.  WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SOME...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WEAKENS.  ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...SINCE
THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.  CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT...EVEN
IF MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BE WEAKENING ALONG IT.  A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING OCCASIONAL
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH THE STATE. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
AFFECT RHI...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO TAF AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP ON EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP AND WILL ADD IF COVERAGE IS GREATER AND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATE CURRENTLY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NE
WISCONSIN WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. PCPN/CIGS/WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY SWINGING THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY TO THE NORTH. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY.

 &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 301647
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1147 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WILL
TRACK ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THIS
REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. NWP MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS...SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS STILL DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPES OF 500 TO 700
J/KG. GIVEN THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA EXPERIENCED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY MORNING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH...LOWER
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD GET INTO
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RATHER QUICKLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO.  SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH THE ECMWF SHOWS BETTER THAN
THE GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANNELED SHORTWAVES WILL BE
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THEY
MAY BRING SCATTERED MID-CLOUDS AT TIMES...PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER THREATS.  THIS TREND CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WHEN
ANY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SHORTWAVES WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  SOUNDINGS AGAIN HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING BELOW
700MB SO THINK THE ECMWF IS TOO PESSIMISTIC IN GENERATING PRECIP SAT
AFTERNOON.  WILL THEREFORE STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST.  PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY
BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.  THIS BACKING
FLOW WILL SUPPORT 925-700MB THETAE ADVECTION WHICH WILL BETTER
TARGET CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN FURTHER NORTH.  WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SOME...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WEAKENS.  ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...SINCE
THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.  CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT...EVEN
IF MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BE WEAKENING ALONG IT.  A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING OCCASIONAL
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH THE STATE. SOME OF THE PRECIP COULD
AFFECT RHI...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO TAF AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP ON EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP AND WILL ADD IF COVERAGE IS GREATER AND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATE CURRENTLY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NE
WISCONSIN WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. PCPN/CIGS/WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY SWINGING THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY TO THE NORTH. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY.

 &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ALLEN




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