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000
FXUS63 KGRB 220256
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
956 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 220256
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
956 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 212231
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
531 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211955
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOST OF AREA HAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAKING ITS
WAY INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP. BY 1730Z MVFR CIGS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WERE SOME CIGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN BUT THEY WERE MOSTLY LOW END VFR. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. 12Z NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY 4F OR
MORE...BUT WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ENDED UP WITH PATCHY
FOG SINCE IT FORMED AT SOME LOCATIONS IN MINNESOTA THAT WERE UNDER
THE HIGH. SHOULD JUST BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211758
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1258 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOST OF AREA HAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAKING ITS
WAY INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP. BY 1730Z MVFR CIGS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WERE SOME CIGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN BUT THEY WERE MOSTLY LOW END VFR. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. 12Z NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY 4F OR
MORE...BUT WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ENDED UP WITH PATCHY
FOG SINCE IT FORMED AT SOME LOCATIONS IN MINNESOTA THAT WERE UNDER
THE HIGH. SHOULD JUST BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE.  THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE.  THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE.  THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE.  THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210244
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTH CONTINUE TO REPORT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. WILL EXPAND THE TIME PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AREA RADARS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK RETURNS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.  IN ADDITION CLOUD
TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST A LESS CHANCE OF A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS FROM SUNDAY WERE SHOWING QPF.
A LOOK AT THE 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL...4C...AND CWPL...-2C...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 9C...SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TO 925MB DELTA T VALUES
OF 5 TO 11C. SO LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAD QPF NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER TODAY...BUT NOTHING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT FOR MUCH THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE
BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST
FROM THE GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STARTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
AT 925MB ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO THE CLOUDS THAT THE CANADIAN HAS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST MAKE SENSE.

HAVE THE CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PCPN CHANCES FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWATS AT OR BLO 0.25 INCH) WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 1000-850
MB AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT DIDN`T
GO QUITE THAT COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDS NGT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO WI...WITH
PWATS RISING TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH ON THU/THU NGT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE INTO WSTRN MN LATE WED NGT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVG. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN WEST
OF THE FORECAST WED NGT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVG. SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
THE EXTENDED MODEL BLEND. ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR WARM SPOTS IN C WI GETTING
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUN/MON.

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210244
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTH CONTINUE TO REPORT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. WILL EXPAND THE TIME PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AREA RADARS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK RETURNS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.  IN ADDITION CLOUD
TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST A LESS CHANCE OF A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS FROM SUNDAY WERE SHOWING QPF.
A LOOK AT THE 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL...4C...AND CWPL...-2C...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 9C...SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TO 925MB DELTA T VALUES
OF 5 TO 11C. SO LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAD QPF NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER TODAY...BUT NOTHING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT FOR MUCH THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE
BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST
FROM THE GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STARTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
AT 925MB ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO THE CLOUDS THAT THE CANADIAN HAS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST MAKE SENSE.

HAVE THE CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PCPN CHANCES FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWATS AT OR BLO 0.25 INCH) WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 1000-850
MB AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT DIDN`T
GO QUITE THAT COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDS NGT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO WI...WITH
PWATS RISING TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH ON THU/THU NGT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE INTO WSTRN MN LATE WED NGT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVG. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN WEST
OF THE FORECAST WED NGT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVG. SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
THE EXTENDED MODEL BLEND. ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR WARM SPOTS IN C WI GETTING
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUN/MON.

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210244
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTH CONTINUE TO REPORT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. WILL EXPAND THE TIME PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AREA RADARS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK RETURNS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.  IN ADDITION CLOUD
TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST A LESS CHANCE OF A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS FROM SUNDAY WERE SHOWING QPF.
A LOOK AT THE 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL...4C...AND CWPL...-2C...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 9C...SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TO 925MB DELTA T VALUES
OF 5 TO 11C. SO LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAD QPF NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER TODAY...BUT NOTHING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT FOR MUCH THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE
BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST
FROM THE GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STARTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
AT 925MB ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO THE CLOUDS THAT THE CANADIAN HAS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST MAKE SENSE.

HAVE THE CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PCPN CHANCES FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWATS AT OR BLO 0.25 INCH) WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 1000-850
MB AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT DIDN`T
GO QUITE THAT COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDS NGT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO WI...WITH
PWATS RISING TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH ON THU/THU NGT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE INTO WSTRN MN LATE WED NGT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVG. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN WEST
OF THE FORECAST WED NGT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVG. SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
THE EXTENDED MODEL BLEND. ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR WARM SPOTS IN C WI GETTING
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUN/MON.

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210232
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTH CONTINUE TO REPORT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. WILL EXPAND THE TIME PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AREA RADARS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK RETURNS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.  IN ADDITION CLOUD
TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST A LESS CHANCE OF A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS FROM SUNDAY WERE SHOWING QPF.
A LOOK AT THE 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL...4C...AND CWPL...-2C...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 9C...SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TO 925MB DELTA T VALUES
OF 5 TO 11C. SO LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAD QPF NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER TODAY...BUT NOTHING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT FOR MUCH THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE
BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST
FROM THE GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STARTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
AT 925MB ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO THE CLOUDS THAT THE CANADIAN HAS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST MAKE SENSE.

HAVE THE CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PCPN CHANCES FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWATS AT OR BLO 0.25 INCH) WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 1000-850
MB AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT DIDN`T
GO QUITE THAT COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDS NGT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO WI...WITH
PWATS RISING TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH ON THU/THU NGT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE INTO WSTRN MN LATE WED NGT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVG. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN WEST
OF THE FORECAST WED NGT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVG. SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
THE EXTENDED MODEL BLEND. ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR WARM SPOTS IN C WI GETTING
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUN/MON.

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS
WELL. DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN
OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210232
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTH CONTINUE TO REPORT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. WILL EXPAND THE TIME PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AREA RADARS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK RETURNS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.  IN ADDITION CLOUD
TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST A LESS CHANCE OF A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS FROM SUNDAY WERE SHOWING QPF.
A LOOK AT THE 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL...4C...AND CWPL...-2C...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 9C...SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TO 925MB DELTA T VALUES
OF 5 TO 11C. SO LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAD QPF NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER TODAY...BUT NOTHING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT FOR MUCH THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE
BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST
FROM THE GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STARTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
AT 925MB ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO THE CLOUDS THAT THE CANADIAN HAS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST MAKE SENSE.

HAVE THE CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PCPN CHANCES FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWATS AT OR BLO 0.25 INCH) WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 1000-850
MB AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT DIDN`T
GO QUITE THAT COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDS NGT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO WI...WITH
PWATS RISING TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH ON THU/THU NGT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE INTO WSTRN MN LATE WED NGT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVG. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN WEST
OF THE FORECAST WED NGT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVG. SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
THE EXTENDED MODEL BLEND. ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR WARM SPOTS IN C WI GETTING
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUN/MON.

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS
WELL. DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN
OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 202312
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS FROM SUNDAY WERE SHOWING QPF.
A LOOK AT THE 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL...4C...AND CWPL...-2C...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 9C...SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TO 925MB DELTA T VALUES
OF 5 TO 11C. SO LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAD QPF NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER TODAY...BUT NOTHING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT FOR MUCH THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE
BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST
FROM THE GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STARTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
AT 925MB ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO THE CLOUDS THAT THE CANADIAN HAS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST MAKE SENSE.

HAVE THE CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PCPN CHANCES FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWATS AT OR BLO 0.25 INCH) WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 1000-850
MB AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT DIDN`T
GO QUITE THAT COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDS NGT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO WI...WITH
PWATS RISING TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH ON THU/THU NGT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE INTO WSTRN MN LATE WED NGT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVG. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN WEST
OF THE FORECAST WED NGT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVG. SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
THE EXTENDED MODEL BLEND. ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR WARM SPOTS IN C WI GETTING
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUN/MON.

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS
WELL. DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN
OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202312
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS FROM SUNDAY WERE SHOWING QPF.
A LOOK AT THE 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL...4C...AND CWPL...-2C...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 9C...SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TO 925MB DELTA T VALUES
OF 5 TO 11C. SO LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAD QPF NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER TODAY...BUT NOTHING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT FOR MUCH THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE
BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST
FROM THE GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STARTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
AT 925MB ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO THE CLOUDS THAT THE CANADIAN HAS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST MAKE SENSE.

HAVE THE CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PCPN CHANCES FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWATS AT OR BLO 0.25 INCH) WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 1000-850
MB AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT DIDN`T
GO QUITE THAT COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDS NGT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO WI...WITH
PWATS RISING TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH ON THU/THU NGT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE INTO WSTRN MN LATE WED NGT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVG. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN WEST
OF THE FORECAST WED NGT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVG. SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
THE EXTENDED MODEL BLEND. ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR WARM SPOTS IN C WI GETTING
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUN/MON.

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS
WELL. DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN
OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 202014
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS FROM SUNDAY WERE SHOWING QPF.
A LOOK AT THE 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL...4C...AND CWPL...-2C...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 9C...SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TO 925MB DELTA T VALUES
OF 5 TO 11C. SO LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAD QPF NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER TODAY...BUT NOTHING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT FOR MUCH THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE
BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST
FROM THE GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STARTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
AT 925MB ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO THE CLOUDS THAT THE CANADIAN HAS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST MAKE SENSE.

HAVE THE CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PCPN CHANCES FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWATS AT OR BLO 0.25 INCH) WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 1000-850
MB AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT DIDN`T
GO QUITE THAT COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDS NGT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO WI...WITH
PWATS RISING TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH ON THU/THU NGT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE INTO WSTRN MN LATE WED NGT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVG. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN WEST
OF THE FORECAST WED NGT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVG. SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
THE EXTENDED MODEL BLEND. ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR WARM SPOTS IN C WI GETTING
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUN/MON.

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING...LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS WITH BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. CIGS WERE MOSTLY MVFR IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THERE WERE ISOLATED IFR CIGS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
THERE...WHICH SHOULD END BY SUNSET. VFR CIGS PREVAILED IN THE
EAST WHERE DOWN SLOPE KEPT CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000FT. CIGS OVER
DOOR COUNTY WERE MVFR DUE TO BAY EFFECTS.

THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTH THAN NORTHWEST ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL COME TO
AN END. CLOUDS BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
SCT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST OFF THE
GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK UP IN CENTRAL...AND PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THEN MOVE INLAND EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DISSIPATE...WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED ON 925MB WIND
FORECASTS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BRING MVFR CIGS. TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS FORM 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/12Z GFS ALL INDICATED DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS SHOULD BE BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202014
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLDER AIR BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THERE WAS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS FROM SUNDAY WERE SHOWING QPF.
A LOOK AT THE 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
KINL...4C...AND CWPL...-2C...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 9C...SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TO 925MB DELTA T VALUES
OF 5 TO 11C. SO LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAD QPF NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER TODAY...BUT NOTHING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT FOR MUCH THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE
BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST
FROM THE GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STARTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
AT 925MB ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO THE CLOUDS THAT THE CANADIAN HAS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST MAKE SENSE.

HAVE THE CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY BUT THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PCPN CHANCES FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR
MASS (PWATS AT OR BLO 0.25 INCH) WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 1000-850
MB AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT DIDN`T
GO QUITE THAT COLD. ON WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDS NGT AND THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO WI...WITH
PWATS RISING TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH ON THU/THU NGT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE INTO WSTRN MN LATE WED NGT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVG. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN WEST
OF THE FORECAST WED NGT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVG. SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
THE EXTENDED MODEL BLEND. ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR WARM SPOTS IN C WI GETTING
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUN/MON.

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING...LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS WITH BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. CIGS WERE MOSTLY MVFR IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THERE WERE ISOLATED IFR CIGS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
THERE...WHICH SHOULD END BY SUNSET. VFR CIGS PREVAILED IN THE
EAST WHERE DOWN SLOPE KEPT CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000FT. CIGS OVER
DOOR COUNTY WERE MVFR DUE TO BAY EFFECTS.

THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTH THAN NORTHWEST ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL COME TO
AN END. CLOUDS BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
SCT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST OFF THE
GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK UP IN CENTRAL...AND PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THEN MOVE INLAND EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DISSIPATE...WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED ON 925MB WIND
FORECASTS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BRING MVFR CIGS. TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS FORM 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/12Z GFS ALL INDICATED DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS SHOULD BE BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201759
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1259 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
COMBINE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT REALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES. IT IS DEFINITELY
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO LEAVE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FCST CONCERN CONTS TO BE THE MDL INCONSISTENTCY BETWEEN A
WEAKENING UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROF/CDFNT COUPLET LATE WED NGT INTO THU EVENING. WL THERE BE ENUF
FORCING/MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING PCPN INTO NE WI? BEYOND
THU...A BROAD UPR RDG TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO
S-CNTRL CANADA WITIH UPR TROFS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE NE
CONUS. THIS BRINGS A W-NW MEAN FLOW INTO WI WITH THE MAIN STORM
TRACK PASSING US BY TO THE NORTH. THIS TRANSLATES TO A BELOW
NORMAL PCPN TREND WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

NE WI TO RESIDE UNDER AN UPR RDG AXIS...WHILE THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST TUE NGT. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING LAKE
CLOUDS FROM LAKE MI...THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPS. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI...TO THE
MID TO UPR 30S OVER DOOR CNTY.

THE UPR RDG AXIS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION THRU WED...THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT S-SE WINDS. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL WI
WHERE THE WIND TO HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO REACH THE LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S
ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI.

THE MDLS AGREE IN THE GENERAL PRINCIPLE OF WEAKENING THE UPR RDG
WED NGT AS A SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MAKE A PUSH TOWARD
THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z THU. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS MAY BE ABLE TO
WORK INTO CNTRL WI LATER WED NGT WITH AN ISOLATED SHWR POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. MORE OF A SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...
SO TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS TUE NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR READINGS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S FAR NE WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS
OVER DOOR CNTY.

MDLS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...
AMOUNT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST
TO BRING THE PCPN CHCS. SEEMS LIKE EVERY NEW MODEL RUN IS DIFFERENT
THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUN...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LAGGING
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW-END POPS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FCST
AREA ON THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

IF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...PCPN CHCS
WOULD NEED TO BE CARRIED OVER INTO THU NGT. ANY PCPN BY THIS POINT
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT SHIFT TO OUR EAST. BY
FRI...THE SOMEWHAT FLAT-LOOKING UPR RDG TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...SENDING DRIER/WARMER AIR
MASS INTO WI. AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPS WL JUMP UPWARD
WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
ON SAT AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
FRI NGT INTO SAT AND SEND A WEAK CDFNT THRU NE WI. FORCING IS ALL
BUT NEGLIGIBLE AND MOISTURE IS ALSO LOOKING RATHER MEAGER...EXPECT
TO SEE A DRY FROPA LATE FRI NGT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW FOR
SAT. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO FRI.

UPR RDG TO STILL DOMINATE THE CNTRL CONUS THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE HI. QUIET AND PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING...LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS WITH BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. CIGS WERE MOSTLY MVFR IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THERE WERE ISOLATED IFR CIGS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
THERE...WHICH SHOULD END BY SUNSET. VFR CIGS PREVAILED IN THE
EAST WHERE DOWN SLOPE KEPT CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000FT. CIGS OVER
DOOR COUNTY WERE MVFR DUE TO BAY EFFECTS.

THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTH THAN NORTHWEST ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL COME TO
AN END. CLOUDS BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
SCT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST OFF THE
GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK UP IN CENTRAL...AND PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THEN MOVE INLAND EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DISSIPATE...WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED ON 925MB WIND
FORECASTS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BRING MVFR CIGS. TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS FORM 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/12Z GFS ALL INDICATED DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS SHOULD BE BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 201759
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1259 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
COMBINE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT REALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES. IT IS DEFINITELY
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO LEAVE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FCST CONCERN CONTS TO BE THE MDL INCONSISTENTCY BETWEEN A
WEAKENING UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROF/CDFNT COUPLET LATE WED NGT INTO THU EVENING. WL THERE BE ENUF
FORCING/MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING PCPN INTO NE WI? BEYOND
THU...A BROAD UPR RDG TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO
S-CNTRL CANADA WITIH UPR TROFS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE NE
CONUS. THIS BRINGS A W-NW MEAN FLOW INTO WI WITH THE MAIN STORM
TRACK PASSING US BY TO THE NORTH. THIS TRANSLATES TO A BELOW
NORMAL PCPN TREND WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

NE WI TO RESIDE UNDER AN UPR RDG AXIS...WHILE THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST TUE NGT. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING LAKE
CLOUDS FROM LAKE MI...THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPS. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI...TO THE
MID TO UPR 30S OVER DOOR CNTY.

THE UPR RDG AXIS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION THRU WED...THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT S-SE WINDS. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL WI
WHERE THE WIND TO HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO REACH THE LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S
ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI.

THE MDLS AGREE IN THE GENERAL PRINCIPLE OF WEAKENING THE UPR RDG
WED NGT AS A SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MAKE A PUSH TOWARD
THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z THU. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS MAY BE ABLE TO
WORK INTO CNTRL WI LATER WED NGT WITH AN ISOLATED SHWR POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. MORE OF A SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...
SO TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS TUE NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR READINGS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S FAR NE WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS
OVER DOOR CNTY.

MDLS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...
AMOUNT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST
TO BRING THE PCPN CHCS. SEEMS LIKE EVERY NEW MODEL RUN IS DIFFERENT
THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUN...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LAGGING
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW-END POPS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FCST
AREA ON THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

IF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...PCPN CHCS
WOULD NEED TO BE CARRIED OVER INTO THU NGT. ANY PCPN BY THIS POINT
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT SHIFT TO OUR EAST. BY
FRI...THE SOMEWHAT FLAT-LOOKING UPR RDG TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...SENDING DRIER/WARMER AIR
MASS INTO WI. AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPS WL JUMP UPWARD
WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
ON SAT AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
FRI NGT INTO SAT AND SEND A WEAK CDFNT THRU NE WI. FORCING IS ALL
BUT NEGLIGIBLE AND MOISTURE IS ALSO LOOKING RATHER MEAGER...EXPECT
TO SEE A DRY FROPA LATE FRI NGT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW FOR
SAT. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO FRI.

UPR RDG TO STILL DOMINATE THE CNTRL CONUS THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE HI. QUIET AND PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING...LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS WITH BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY. CIGS WERE MOSTLY MVFR IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THERE WERE ISOLATED IFR CIGS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
THERE...WHICH SHOULD END BY SUNSET. VFR CIGS PREVAILED IN THE
EAST WHERE DOWN SLOPE KEPT CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000FT. CIGS OVER
DOOR COUNTY WERE MVFR DUE TO BAY EFFECTS.

THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTH THAN NORTHWEST ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL COME TO
AN END. CLOUDS BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
SCT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CANADIAN CLOUD FORECAST OFF THE
GEM-REG HAD CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK UP IN CENTRAL...AND PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THEN MOVE INLAND EARLY IN THE MORNING AS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DISSIPATE...WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED ON 925MB WIND
FORECASTS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BRING MVFR CIGS. TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS FORM 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/12Z GFS ALL INDICATED DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS SHOULD BE BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201141
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
641 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
COMBINE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT REALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES. IT IS DEFINITELY
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO LEAVE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FCST CONCERN CONTS TO BE THE MDL INCONSISTENTCY BETWEEN A
WEAKENING UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROF/CDFNT COUPLET LATE WED NGT INTO THU EVENING. WL THERE BE ENUF
FORCING/MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING PCPN INTO NE WI? BEYOND
THU...A BROAD UPR RDG TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO
S-CNTRL CANADA WITIH UPR TROFS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE NE
CONUS. THIS BRINGS A W-NW MEAN FLOW INTO WI WITH THE MAIN STORM
TRACK PASSING US BY TO THE NORTH. THIS TRANSLATES TO A BELOW
NORMAL PCPN TREND WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

NE WI TO RESIDE UNDER AN UPR RDG AXIS...WHILE THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST TUE NGT. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING LAKE
CLOUDS FROM LAKE MI...THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPS. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI...TO THE
MID TO UPR 30S OVER DOOR CNTY.

THE UPR RDG AXIS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION THRU WED...THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT S-SE WINDS. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL WI
WHERE THE WIND TO HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO REACH THE LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S
ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI.

THE MDLS AGREE IN THE GENERAL PRINCIPLE OF WEAKENING THE UPR RDG
WED NGT AS A SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MAKE A PUSH TOWARD
THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z THU. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS MAY BE ABLE TO
WORK INTO CNTRL WI LATER WED NGT WITH AN ISOLATED SHWR POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. MORE OF A SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...
SO TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS TUE NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR READINGS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S FAR NE WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS
OVER DOOR CNTY.

MDLS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...
AMOUNT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST
TO BRING THE PCPN CHCS. SEEMS LIKE EVERY NEW MODEL RUN IS DIFFERENT
THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUN...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LAGGING
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW-END POPS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FCST
AREA ON THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

IF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...PCPN CHCS
WOULD NEED TO BE CARRIED OVER INTO THU NGT. ANY PCPN BY THIS POINT
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT SHIFT TO OUR EAST. BY
FRI...THE SOMEWHAT FLAT-LOOKING UPR RDG TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...SENDING DRIER/WARMER AIR
MASS INTO WI. AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPS WL JUMP UPWARD
WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
ON SAT AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
FRI NGT INTO SAT AND SEND A WEAK CDFNT THRU NE WI. FORCING IS ALL
BUT NEGLIGIBLE AND MOISTURE IS ALSO LOOKING RATHER MEAGER...EXPECT
TO SEE A DRY FROPA LATE FRI NGT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW FOR
SAT. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO FRI.

UPR RDG TO STILL DOMINATE THE CNTRL CONUS THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE HI. QUIET AND PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A
NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOL AND MOIST AIR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS IN MOST PLACES. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING BY MIDDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 201141
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
641 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
COMBINE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT REALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES. IT IS DEFINITELY
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO LEAVE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FCST CONCERN CONTS TO BE THE MDL INCONSISTENTCY BETWEEN A
WEAKENING UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROF/CDFNT COUPLET LATE WED NGT INTO THU EVENING. WL THERE BE ENUF
FORCING/MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING PCPN INTO NE WI? BEYOND
THU...A BROAD UPR RDG TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO
S-CNTRL CANADA WITIH UPR TROFS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE NE
CONUS. THIS BRINGS A W-NW MEAN FLOW INTO WI WITH THE MAIN STORM
TRACK PASSING US BY TO THE NORTH. THIS TRANSLATES TO A BELOW
NORMAL PCPN TREND WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

NE WI TO RESIDE UNDER AN UPR RDG AXIS...WHILE THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST TUE NGT. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING LAKE
CLOUDS FROM LAKE MI...THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPS. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI...TO THE
MID TO UPR 30S OVER DOOR CNTY.

THE UPR RDG AXIS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION THRU WED...THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT S-SE WINDS. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL WI
WHERE THE WIND TO HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO REACH THE LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S
ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI.

THE MDLS AGREE IN THE GENERAL PRINCIPLE OF WEAKENING THE UPR RDG
WED NGT AS A SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MAKE A PUSH TOWARD
THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z THU. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS MAY BE ABLE TO
WORK INTO CNTRL WI LATER WED NGT WITH AN ISOLATED SHWR POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. MORE OF A SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...
SO TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS TUE NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR READINGS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S FAR NE WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS
OVER DOOR CNTY.

MDLS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...
AMOUNT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST
TO BRING THE PCPN CHCS. SEEMS LIKE EVERY NEW MODEL RUN IS DIFFERENT
THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUN...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LAGGING
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW-END POPS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FCST
AREA ON THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

IF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...PCPN CHCS
WOULD NEED TO BE CARRIED OVER INTO THU NGT. ANY PCPN BY THIS POINT
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT SHIFT TO OUR EAST. BY
FRI...THE SOMEWHAT FLAT-LOOKING UPR RDG TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...SENDING DRIER/WARMER AIR
MASS INTO WI. AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPS WL JUMP UPWARD
WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
ON SAT AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
FRI NGT INTO SAT AND SEND A WEAK CDFNT THRU NE WI. FORCING IS ALL
BUT NEGLIGIBLE AND MOISTURE IS ALSO LOOKING RATHER MEAGER...EXPECT
TO SEE A DRY FROPA LATE FRI NGT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW FOR
SAT. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO FRI.

UPR RDG TO STILL DOMINATE THE CNTRL CONUS THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE HI. QUIET AND PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A
NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOL AND MOIST AIR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS IN MOST PLACES. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING BY MIDDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 200905
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
COMBINE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT REALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES. IT IS DEFINITELY
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO LEAVE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FCST CONCERN CONTS TO BE THE MDL INCONSISTENTCY BETWEEN A
WEAKENING UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROF/CDFNT COUPLET LATE WED NGT INTO THU EVENING. WL THERE BE ENUF
FORCING/MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING PCPN INTO NE WI? BEYOND
THU...A BROAD UPR RDG TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO
S-CNTRL CANADA WITIH UPR TROFS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE NE
CONUS. THIS BRINGS A W-NW MEAN FLOW INTO WI WITH THE MAIN STORM
TRACK PASSING US BY TO THE NORTH. THIS TRANSLATES TO A BELOW
NORMAL PCPN TREND WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

NE WI TO RESIDE UNDER AN UPR RDG AXIS...WHILE THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST TUE NGT. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING LAKE
CLOUDS FROM LAKE MI...THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPS. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI...TO THE
MID TO UPR 30S OVER DOOR CNTY.

THE UPR RDG AXIS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION THRU WED...THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT S-SE WINDS. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL WI
WHERE THE WIND TO HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO REACH THE LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S
ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI.

THE MDLS AGREE IN THE GENERAL PRINCIPLE OF WEAKENING THE UPR RDG
WED NGT AS A SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MAKE A PUSH TOWARD
THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z THU. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS MAY BE ABLE TO
WORK INTO CNTRL WI LATER WED NGT WITH AN ISOLATED SHWR POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. MORE OF A SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...
SO TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS TUE NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR READINGS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S FAR NE WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS
OVER DOOR CNTY.

MDLS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...
AMOUNT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST
TO BRING THE PCPN CHCS. SEEMS LIKE EVERY NEW MODEL RUN IS DIFFERENT
THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUN...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LAGGING
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW-END POPS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FCST
AREA ON THU. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

IF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...PCPN CHCS
WOULD NEED TO BE CARRIED OVER INTO THU NGT. ANY PCPN BY THIS POINT
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT SHIFT TO OUR EAST. BY
FRI...THE SOMEWHAT FLAT-LOOKING UPR RDG TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...SENDING DRIER/WARMER AIR
MASS INTO WI. AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPS WL JUMP UPWARD
WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
ON SAT AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
FRI NGT INTO SAT AND SEND A WEAK CDFNT THRU NE WI. FORCING IS ALL
BUT NEGLIGIBLE AND MOISTURE IS ALSO LOOKING RATHER MEAGER...EXPECT
TO SEE A DRY FROPA LATE FRI NGT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW FOR
SAT. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO FRI.

UPR RDG TO STILL DOMINATE THE CNTRL CONUS THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE HI. QUIET AND PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO NORTHWEST.
SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR POURS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON NORTHWEST WINDS. THE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 200448
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTHEAST OF WISCONSIN. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED PLENTY
OF DRY AIR BELOW 400MB AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.24
INCH...THOUGH KMPX..KINL AND CWPL SOUNDINGS LOOKED PRETTY
SATURATED WITH PW VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.8 INCH. THE GRB RADAR SHOWED
AN AREA OF 20+ DBZ ECHOES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT SURFACE
PLOTS INDICATED UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN.

THERE WAS ALREADY SOME CLEARING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM NAM/SREF/GFS
APPEARED TO INDICATE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BUT QPF WAS SHOWN WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAD SCATTERED QPF BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BUT WATER TEMPERATURES...ACCORDING TO
GLERL...ON LAKE SUPERIOR WERE MAINLY IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE FORECAST TO BE NO COLDER THAN ABOUT -2C
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DELTA-T VALUES OF 10 TO 12 WOULD NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...HAVE TRIED TO STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO MESH GRIDS WITH THOSE OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SHEARED VORT MAX AND JET STREAK WILL AFFECT FAR EASTERN WI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO OUR EAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH AND EAST...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A THERMAL TROF STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT...AS MODELS ONLY SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LLVL RH. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM TANKING ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
30S AND LOWER 40S ANTICIPATED. NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ANTICIPATING MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT AS VERY
DRY CANADIAN AIR (H8 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 C) ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 900-875 MB
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NC WI LATE WED NGT...AND TO
THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY. ULTIMATELY... IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE PCPN HAS A CHANCE TO
REACH EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL BLEND DURING THAT PERIOD. DID OPT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY...AND WE MAY NEED TO MAKE EVEN BIGGER UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS ON SATURDAY IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER OR SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO NORTHWEST.
SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR POURS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON NORTHWEST WINDS. THE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 200448
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTHEAST OF WISCONSIN. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED PLENTY
OF DRY AIR BELOW 400MB AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.24
INCH...THOUGH KMPX..KINL AND CWPL SOUNDINGS LOOKED PRETTY
SATURATED WITH PW VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.8 INCH. THE GRB RADAR SHOWED
AN AREA OF 20+ DBZ ECHOES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT SURFACE
PLOTS INDICATED UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN.

THERE WAS ALREADY SOME CLEARING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM NAM/SREF/GFS
APPEARED TO INDICATE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BUT QPF WAS SHOWN WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAD SCATTERED QPF BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BUT WATER TEMPERATURES...ACCORDING TO
GLERL...ON LAKE SUPERIOR WERE MAINLY IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE FORECAST TO BE NO COLDER THAN ABOUT -2C
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DELTA-T VALUES OF 10 TO 12 WOULD NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...HAVE TRIED TO STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO MESH GRIDS WITH THOSE OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SHEARED VORT MAX AND JET STREAK WILL AFFECT FAR EASTERN WI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO OUR EAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH AND EAST...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A THERMAL TROF STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT...AS MODELS ONLY SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LLVL RH. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM TANKING ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
30S AND LOWER 40S ANTICIPATED. NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ANTICIPATING MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT AS VERY
DRY CANADIAN AIR (H8 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 C) ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 900-875 MB
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NC WI LATE WED NGT...AND TO
THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY. ULTIMATELY... IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE PCPN HAS A CHANCE TO
REACH EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL BLEND DURING THAT PERIOD. DID OPT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY...AND WE MAY NEED TO MAKE EVEN BIGGER UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS ON SATURDAY IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER OR SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO NORTHWEST.
SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR POURS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON NORTHWEST WINDS. THE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 192336
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
636 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTHEAST OF WISCONSIN. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED PLENTY
OF DRY AIR BELOW 400MB AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.24
INCH...THOUGH KMPX..KINL AND CWPL SOUNDINGS LOOKED PRETTY
SATURATED WITH PW VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.8 INCH. THE GRB RADAR SHOWED
AN AREA OF 20+ DBZ ECHOES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT SURFACE
PLOTS INDICATED UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN.

THERE WAS ALREADY SOME CLEARING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM NAM/SREF/GFS
APPEARED TO INDICATE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BUT QPF WAS SHOWN WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAD SCATTERED QPF BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BUT WATER TEMPERATURES...ACCORDING TO
GLERL...ON LAKE SUPERIOR WERE MAINLY IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE FORECAST TO BE NO COLDER THAN ABOUT -2C
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DELTA-T VALUES OF 10 TO 12 WOULD NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...HAVE TRIED TO STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO MESH GRIDS WITH THOSE OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SHEARED VORT MAX AND JET STREAK WILL AFFECT FAR EASTERN WI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO OUR EAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH AND EAST...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A THERMAL TROF STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT...AS MODELS ONLY SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LLVL RH. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM TANKING ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
30S AND LOWER 40S ANTICIPATED. NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ANTICIPATING MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT AS VERY
DRY CANADIAN AIR (H8 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 C) ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 900-875 MB
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NC WI LATE WED NGT...AND TO
THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY. ULTIMATELY... IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE PCPN HAS A CHANCE TO
REACH EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL BLEND DURING THAT PERIOD. DID OPT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY...AND WE MAY NEED TO MAKE EVEN BIGGER UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS ON SATURDAY IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER OR SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF
MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR POURS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 192336
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
636 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTHEAST OF WISCONSIN. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED PLENTY
OF DRY AIR BELOW 400MB AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.24
INCH...THOUGH KMPX..KINL AND CWPL SOUNDINGS LOOKED PRETTY
SATURATED WITH PW VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.8 INCH. THE GRB RADAR SHOWED
AN AREA OF 20+ DBZ ECHOES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT SURFACE
PLOTS INDICATED UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN.

THERE WAS ALREADY SOME CLEARING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM NAM/SREF/GFS
APPEARED TO INDICATE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BUT QPF WAS SHOWN WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAD SCATTERED QPF BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BUT WATER TEMPERATURES...ACCORDING TO
GLERL...ON LAKE SUPERIOR WERE MAINLY IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE FORECAST TO BE NO COLDER THAN ABOUT -2C
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DELTA-T VALUES OF 10 TO 12 WOULD NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...HAVE TRIED TO STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO MESH GRIDS WITH THOSE OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SHEARED VORT MAX AND JET STREAK WILL AFFECT FAR EASTERN WI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO OUR EAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH AND EAST...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A THERMAL TROF STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT...AS MODELS ONLY SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LLVL RH. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM TANKING ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
30S AND LOWER 40S ANTICIPATED. NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ANTICIPATING MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT AS VERY
DRY CANADIAN AIR (H8 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 C) ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 900-875 MB
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NC WI LATE WED NGT...AND TO
THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY. ULTIMATELY... IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE PCPN HAS A CHANCE TO
REACH EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL BLEND DURING THAT PERIOD. DID OPT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY...AND WE MAY NEED TO MAKE EVEN BIGGER UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS ON SATURDAY IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER OR SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF
MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR POURS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 192336
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
636 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTHEAST OF WISCONSIN. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED PLENTY
OF DRY AIR BELOW 400MB AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.24
INCH...THOUGH KMPX..KINL AND CWPL SOUNDINGS LOOKED PRETTY
SATURATED WITH PW VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.8 INCH. THE GRB RADAR SHOWED
AN AREA OF 20+ DBZ ECHOES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT SURFACE
PLOTS INDICATED UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN.

THERE WAS ALREADY SOME CLEARING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM NAM/SREF/GFS
APPEARED TO INDICATE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BUT QPF WAS SHOWN WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAD SCATTERED QPF BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BUT WATER TEMPERATURES...ACCORDING TO
GLERL...ON LAKE SUPERIOR WERE MAINLY IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE FORECAST TO BE NO COLDER THAN ABOUT -2C
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DELTA-T VALUES OF 10 TO 12 WOULD NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...HAVE TRIED TO STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO MESH GRIDS WITH THOSE OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SHEARED VORT MAX AND JET STREAK WILL AFFECT FAR EASTERN WI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO OUR EAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH AND EAST...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A THERMAL TROF STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT...AS MODELS ONLY SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LLVL RH. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM TANKING ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
30S AND LOWER 40S ANTICIPATED. NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ANTICIPATING MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT AS VERY
DRY CANADIAN AIR (H8 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 C) ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 900-875 MB
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NC WI LATE WED NGT...AND TO
THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY. ULTIMATELY... IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE PCPN HAS A CHANCE TO
REACH EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL BLEND DURING THAT PERIOD. DID OPT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY...AND WE MAY NEED TO MAKE EVEN BIGGER UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS ON SATURDAY IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER OR SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF
MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR POURS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 192020
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTHEAST OF WISCONSIN. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED PLENTY
OF DRY AIR BELOW 400MB AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.24
INCH...THOUGH KMPX..KINL AND CWPL SOUNDINGS LOOKED PRETTY
SATURATED WITH PW VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.8 INCH. THE GRB RADAR SHOWED
AN AREA OF 20+ DBZ ECHOES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT SURFACE
PLOTS INDICATED UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN.

THERE WAS ALREADY SOME CLEARING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM NAM/SREF/GFS
APPEARED TO INDICATE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BUT QPF WAS SHOWN WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAD SCATTERED QPF BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BUT WATER TEMPERATURES...ACCORDING TO
GLERL...ON LAKE SUPERIOR WERE MAINLY IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE FORECAST TO BE NO COLDER THAN ABOUT -2C
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DELTA-T VALUES OF 10 TO 12 WOULD NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...HAVE TRIED TO STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO MESH GRIDS WITH THOSE OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SHEARED VORT MAX AND JET STREAK WILL AFFECT FAR EASTERN WI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO OUR EAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH AND EAST...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A THERMAL TROF STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT...AS MODELS ONLY SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LLVL RH. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM TANKING ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
30S AND LOWER 40S ANTICIPATED. NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ANTICIPATING MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT AS VERY
DRY CANADIAN AIR (H8 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 C) ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 900-875 MB
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NC WI LATE WED NGT...AND TO
THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY. ULTIMATELY... IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE PCPN HAS A CHANCE TO
REACH EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL BLEND DURING THAT PERIOD. DID OPT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY...AND WE MAY NEED TO MAKE EVEN BIGGER UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS ON SATURDAY IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER OR SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH THE
12Z GRB SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 400MB SO
THE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN COULD DRY UP
BEFORE THEY REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES. DID INCLUDE A SPRINKLE FOR
AN HOUR IN AUW...CWA...AND RHI TAFS.

MODELS HAVE SOME QPF IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT TIMING IS A BIT
DIFFERENT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY OTHER MENTION OF RAIN IN THE TAFS
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING QPF TIMING AMONG THE MODELS.
THE 12Z GEM-NH...12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ALL HAD RELATIVELY SMALL
AREAS OF QPF IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
BUT...AGAIN...TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 191800
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT WILL BE TRYING TO SATURATE
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. 00Z GRB SOUNDING ONLY HAD .28" PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH SIMILAR VALUES AT INL AND MSP. MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE
MORE LIKE SPRINKLES FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM A DRY ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED
THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES WITH A SW CONUS UPR RDG
AND MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES E-SE TO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE TO BE
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THU. MDLS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS FEATURE...
THUS PROVIDING A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM DRY TO CHC POPS.
AS FOR TEMPS...ONCE WE GET PAST TUE...READINGS WL GO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AN AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM ERN ONTARIO SW THRU
WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY MON NGT AND BEGIN TO AT LEAST BREAK UP THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. A N-NE WIND MAY
CONT TO BRING LAKE CLOUDS INTO ERN WI THRU THE NGT...THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WL HOLD. WL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...BUT FEEL MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS TRAJS ARE NOT QUITE NE
ENUF. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY OVER CNTRL WI DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT OCCURS. HAVE LOWERED VALUES A COUPLE OF
DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT KEPT THE 40 DEG WORDING OVER ERN
WI UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE SFC RDG AXIS TO REMAIN OVER WI ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPR RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AREA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT COOL
BETWEEN THE E-NE SFC WINDS AND A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPR RDG. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO END UP IN THE 50-50 DEG RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL TUE NGT AS THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG EDGES INTO WRN WI. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND MOST LIKELY THE
COOLEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED FCST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND
30 DEGS NORTH...TO THE UPR 30S OVER DOOR COUNTY. THE UPR-LEVEL RDG
IS FCST TO REMAIN PARKED OVER WI THRU WED...BUT DOES BEGIN TO GET
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. STILL ANTICIPATE A SUNNY
DAY OVER NE WI WITH A SLGT BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS WINDS VEER TO THE
S-SE. AS 8H TEMPS REACH +10C...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPR 50S EXCEPT LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI.

HAD HOPED TO SEE BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOP AMONG THE MDLS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT HEADED INTO
WED NGT...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF MADE A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN SLOWING
THIS SYSTEM DOWN CLOSER TO THE STEADY GFS. THE MAIN PROBLEM STEMS
FROM HOW FAST TO WEAKEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TYPICALLY...
MDLS TEND TO WEAKEN A RDG TOO QUICKLY AND THEN BACK OFF (LIKE THE
ECMWF HAS DONE) AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE
HELD OFF ON BRINGING ANY POP WORDING INTO CNTRL WI UNTIL LATE WED
NGT AND KEPT THE EAST DRY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT TRY TO
MOVE EAST INTO WI ON THU...THE ECMWF AND GFS TEND TO WEAKEN THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM AS ITSELF GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE REMAINS OF THE
UPR RDG TO THE EAST AND A NEW UPR RDG BUILDING FROM THE SW CONUS
INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHC POP OVER ALMOST ALL OF
NE WI ON THU...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PCPN.

THIS SYSTEM CONTS TO FIZZLE OUT OVER WI THU NGT AS UPR HEIGHTS
BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT ALL OF NE WI DRY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE EXPANSIVE UPR RDG TO DOMINATE THE SW
QUARTER OF THE CONUS ON FRI LEAVING NE WI UNDER A GENERAL W-NW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS ON FRI DO LOOK MILD AS 8H TEMPS WARM TO
+12C. READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
SEND A CDFNT THRU WI FRI NGT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA AS MSTR
IS NEGLIGIBLE AND ALL THE FORCING TO BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT...A DRY FCST
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...AS WELL AS THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH THE
12Z GRB SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 400MB SO
THE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN COULD DRY UP
BEFORE THEY REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES. DID INCLUDE A SPRINKLE FOR
AN HOUR IN AUW...CWA...AND RHI TAFS.

MODELS HAVE SOME QPF IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT TIMING IS A BIT
DIFFERENT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY OTHER MENTION OF RAIN IN THE TAFS
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING QPF TIMING AMONG THE MODELS.
THE 12Z GEM-NH...12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ALL HAD RELATIVELY SMALL
AREAS OF QPF IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
BUT...AGAIN...TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 191800
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT WILL BE TRYING TO SATURATE
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. 00Z GRB SOUNDING ONLY HAD .28" PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH SIMILAR VALUES AT INL AND MSP. MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE
MORE LIKE SPRINKLES FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM A DRY ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED
THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES WITH A SW CONUS UPR RDG
AND MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES E-SE TO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE TO BE
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THU. MDLS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS FEATURE...
THUS PROVIDING A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM DRY TO CHC POPS.
AS FOR TEMPS...ONCE WE GET PAST TUE...READINGS WL GO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AN AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM ERN ONTARIO SW THRU
WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY MON NGT AND BEGIN TO AT LEAST BREAK UP THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. A N-NE WIND MAY
CONT TO BRING LAKE CLOUDS INTO ERN WI THRU THE NGT...THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WL HOLD. WL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...BUT FEEL MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS TRAJS ARE NOT QUITE NE
ENUF. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY OVER CNTRL WI DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT OCCURS. HAVE LOWERED VALUES A COUPLE OF
DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT KEPT THE 40 DEG WORDING OVER ERN
WI UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE SFC RDG AXIS TO REMAIN OVER WI ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPR RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AREA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT COOL
BETWEEN THE E-NE SFC WINDS AND A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPR RDG. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO END UP IN THE 50-50 DEG RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL TUE NGT AS THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG EDGES INTO WRN WI. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND MOST LIKELY THE
COOLEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED FCST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND
30 DEGS NORTH...TO THE UPR 30S OVER DOOR COUNTY. THE UPR-LEVEL RDG
IS FCST TO REMAIN PARKED OVER WI THRU WED...BUT DOES BEGIN TO GET
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. STILL ANTICIPATE A SUNNY
DAY OVER NE WI WITH A SLGT BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS WINDS VEER TO THE
S-SE. AS 8H TEMPS REACH +10C...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPR 50S EXCEPT LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI.

HAD HOPED TO SEE BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOP AMONG THE MDLS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT HEADED INTO
WED NGT...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF MADE A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN SLOWING
THIS SYSTEM DOWN CLOSER TO THE STEADY GFS. THE MAIN PROBLEM STEMS
FROM HOW FAST TO WEAKEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TYPICALLY...
MDLS TEND TO WEAKEN A RDG TOO QUICKLY AND THEN BACK OFF (LIKE THE
ECMWF HAS DONE) AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE
HELD OFF ON BRINGING ANY POP WORDING INTO CNTRL WI UNTIL LATE WED
NGT AND KEPT THE EAST DRY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT TRY TO
MOVE EAST INTO WI ON THU...THE ECMWF AND GFS TEND TO WEAKEN THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM AS ITSELF GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE REMAINS OF THE
UPR RDG TO THE EAST AND A NEW UPR RDG BUILDING FROM THE SW CONUS
INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHC POP OVER ALMOST ALL OF
NE WI ON THU...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PCPN.

THIS SYSTEM CONTS TO FIZZLE OUT OVER WI THU NGT AS UPR HEIGHTS
BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT ALL OF NE WI DRY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE EXPANSIVE UPR RDG TO DOMINATE THE SW
QUARTER OF THE CONUS ON FRI LEAVING NE WI UNDER A GENERAL W-NW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS ON FRI DO LOOK MILD AS 8H TEMPS WARM TO
+12C. READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
SEND A CDFNT THRU WI FRI NGT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA AS MSTR
IS NEGLIGIBLE AND ALL THE FORCING TO BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT...A DRY FCST
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...AS WELL AS THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH THE
12Z GRB SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 400MB SO
THE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN COULD DRY UP
BEFORE THEY REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES. DID INCLUDE A SPRINKLE FOR
AN HOUR IN AUW...CWA...AND RHI TAFS.

MODELS HAVE SOME QPF IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT TIMING IS A BIT
DIFFERENT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY OTHER MENTION OF RAIN IN THE TAFS
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING QPF TIMING AMONG THE MODELS.
THE 12Z GEM-NH...12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ALL HAD RELATIVELY SMALL
AREAS OF QPF IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
BUT...AGAIN...TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 191145
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT WILL BE TRYING TO SATURATE
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. 00Z GRB SOUNDING ONLY HAD .28" PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH SIMILAR VALUES AT INL AND MSP. MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE
MORE LIKE SPRINKLES FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM A DRY ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED
THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES WITH A SW CONUS UPR RDG
AND MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES E-SE TO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE TO BE
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THU. MDLS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS FEATURE...
THUS PROVIDING A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM DRY TO CHC POPS.
AS FOR TEMPS...ONCE WE GET PAST TUE...READINGS WL GO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AN AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM ERN ONTARIO SW THRU
WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY MON NGT AND BEGIN TO AT LEAST BREAK UP THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. A N-NE WIND MAY
CONT TO BRING LAKE CLOUDS INTO ERN WI THRU THE NGT...THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WL HOLD. WL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...BUT FEEL MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS TRAJS ARE NOT QUITE NE
ENUF. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY OVER CNTRL WI DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT OCCURS. HAVE LOWERED VALUES A COUPLE OF
DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT KEPT THE 40 DEG WORDING OVER ERN
WI UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE SFC RDG AXIS TO REMAIN OVER WI ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPR RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AREA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT COOL
BETWEEN THE E-NE SFC WINDS AND A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPR RDG. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO END UP IN THE 50-50 DEG RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL TUE NGT AS THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG EDGES INTO WRN WI. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND MOST LIKELY THE
COOLEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED FCST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND
30 DEGS NORTH...TO THE UPR 30S OVER DOOR COUNTY. THE UPR-LEVEL RDG
IS FCST TO REMAIN PARKED OVER WI THRU WED...BUT DOES BEGIN TO GET
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. STILL ANTICIPATE A SUNNY
DAY OVER NE WI WITH A SLGT BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS WINDS VEER TO THE
S-SE. AS 8H TEMPS REACH +10C...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPR 50S EXCEPT LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI.

HAD HOPED TO SEE BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOP AMONG THE MDLS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT HEADED INTO
WED NGT...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF MADE A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN SLOWING
THIS SYSTEM DOWN CLOSER TO THE STEADY GFS. THE MAIN PROBLEM STEMS
FROM HOW FAST TO WEAKEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TYPICALLY...
MDLS TEND TO WEAKEN A RDG TOO QUICKLY AND THEN BACK OFF (LIKE THE
ECMWF HAS DONE) AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE
HELD OFF ON BRINGING ANY POP WORDING INTO CNTRL WI UNTIL LATE WED
NGT AND KEPT THE EAST DRY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT TRY TO
MOVE EAST INTO WI ON THU...THE ECMWF AND GFS TEND TO WEAKEN THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM AS ITSELF GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE REMAINS OF THE
UPR RDG TO THE EAST AND A NEW UPR RDG BUILDING FROM THE SW CONUS
INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHC POP OVER ALMOST ALL OF
NE WI ON THU...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PCPN.

THIS SYSTEM CONTS TO FIZZLE OUT OVER WI THU NGT AS UPR HEIGHTS
BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT ALL OF NE WI DRY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE EXPANSIVE UPR RDG TO DOMINATE THE SW
QUARTER OF THE CONUS ON FRI LEAVING NE WI UNDER A GENERAL W-NW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS ON FRI DO LOOK MILD AS 8H TEMPS WARM TO
+12C. READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
SEND A CDFNT THRU WI FRI NGT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA AS MSTR
IS NEGLIGIBLE AND ALL THE FORCING TO BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT...A DRY FCST
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...AS WELL AS THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY SO THE FRONT MAY COME THROUGH
DRY OR JUST WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 191145
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT WILL BE TRYING TO SATURATE
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. 00Z GRB SOUNDING ONLY HAD .28" PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH SIMILAR VALUES AT INL AND MSP. MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE
MORE LIKE SPRINKLES FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM A DRY ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED
THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES WITH A SW CONUS UPR RDG
AND MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES E-SE TO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE TO BE
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THU. MDLS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS FEATURE...
THUS PROVIDING A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM DRY TO CHC POPS.
AS FOR TEMPS...ONCE WE GET PAST TUE...READINGS WL GO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AN AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM ERN ONTARIO SW THRU
WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY MON NGT AND BEGIN TO AT LEAST BREAK UP THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. A N-NE WIND MAY
CONT TO BRING LAKE CLOUDS INTO ERN WI THRU THE NGT...THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WL HOLD. WL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...BUT FEEL MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS TRAJS ARE NOT QUITE NE
ENUF. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY OVER CNTRL WI DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT OCCURS. HAVE LOWERED VALUES A COUPLE OF
DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT KEPT THE 40 DEG WORDING OVER ERN
WI UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE SFC RDG AXIS TO REMAIN OVER WI ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPR RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AREA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT COOL
BETWEEN THE E-NE SFC WINDS AND A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPR RDG. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO END UP IN THE 50-50 DEG RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL TUE NGT AS THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG EDGES INTO WRN WI. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND MOST LIKELY THE
COOLEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED FCST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND
30 DEGS NORTH...TO THE UPR 30S OVER DOOR COUNTY. THE UPR-LEVEL RDG
IS FCST TO REMAIN PARKED OVER WI THRU WED...BUT DOES BEGIN TO GET
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. STILL ANTICIPATE A SUNNY
DAY OVER NE WI WITH A SLGT BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS WINDS VEER TO THE
S-SE. AS 8H TEMPS REACH +10C...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPR 50S EXCEPT LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI.

HAD HOPED TO SEE BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOP AMONG THE MDLS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT HEADED INTO
WED NGT...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF MADE A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN SLOWING
THIS SYSTEM DOWN CLOSER TO THE STEADY GFS. THE MAIN PROBLEM STEMS
FROM HOW FAST TO WEAKEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TYPICALLY...
MDLS TEND TO WEAKEN A RDG TOO QUICKLY AND THEN BACK OFF (LIKE THE
ECMWF HAS DONE) AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE
HELD OFF ON BRINGING ANY POP WORDING INTO CNTRL WI UNTIL LATE WED
NGT AND KEPT THE EAST DRY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT TRY TO
MOVE EAST INTO WI ON THU...THE ECMWF AND GFS TEND TO WEAKEN THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM AS ITSELF GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE REMAINS OF THE
UPR RDG TO THE EAST AND A NEW UPR RDG BUILDING FROM THE SW CONUS
INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHC POP OVER ALMOST ALL OF
NE WI ON THU...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PCPN.

THIS SYSTEM CONTS TO FIZZLE OUT OVER WI THU NGT AS UPR HEIGHTS
BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT ALL OF NE WI DRY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE EXPANSIVE UPR RDG TO DOMINATE THE SW
QUARTER OF THE CONUS ON FRI LEAVING NE WI UNDER A GENERAL W-NW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS ON FRI DO LOOK MILD AS 8H TEMPS WARM TO
+12C. READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
SEND A CDFNT THRU WI FRI NGT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA AS MSTR
IS NEGLIGIBLE AND ALL THE FORCING TO BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT...A DRY FCST
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...AS WELL AS THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY SO THE FRONT MAY COME THROUGH
DRY OR JUST WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190905
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
405 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT WILL BE TRYING TO SATURATE
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. 00Z GRB SOUNDING ONLY HAD .28" PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH SIMILAR VALUES AT INL AND MSP. MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE
MORE LIKE SPRINKLES FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM A DRY ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED
THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES WITH A SW CONUS UPR RDG
AND MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES E-SE TO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE TO BE
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THU. MDLS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS FEATURE...
THUS PROVIDING A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM DRY TO CHC POPS.
AS FOR TEMPS...ONCE WE GET PAST TUE...READINGS WL GO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AN AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM ERN ONTARIO SW THRU
WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY MON NGT AND BEGIN TO AT LEAST BREAK UP THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. A N-NE WIND MAY
CONT TO BRING LAKE CLOUDS INTO ERN WI THRU THE NGT...THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WL HOLD. WL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...BUT FEEL MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS TRAJS ARE NOT QUITE NE
ENUF. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY OVER CNTRL WI DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT OCCURS. HAVE LOWERED VALUES A COUPLE OF
DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT KEPT THE 40 DEG WORDING OVER ERN
WI UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE SFC RDG AXIS TO REMAIN OVER WI ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPR RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AREA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT COOL
BETWEEN THE E-NE SFC WINDS AND A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPR RDG. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO END UP IN THE 50-50 DEG RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL TUE NGT AS THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG EDGES INTO WRN WI. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND MOST LIKELY THE
COOLEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED FCST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND
30 DEGS NORTH...TO THE UPR 30S OVER DOOR COUNTY. THE UPR-LEVEL RDG
IS FCST TO REMAIN PARKED OVER WI THRU WED...BUT DOES BEGIN TO GET
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. STILL ANTICIPATE A SUNNY
DAY OVER NE WI WITH A SLGT BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS WINDS VEER TO THE
S-SE. AS 8H TEMPS REACH +10C...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPR 50S EXCEPT LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI.

HAD HOPED TO SEE BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOP AMONG THE MDLS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT HEADED INTO
WED NGT...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF MADE A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN SLOWING
THIS SYSTEM DOWN CLOSER TO THE STEADY GFS. THE MAIN PROBLEM STEMS
FROM HOW FAST TO WEAKEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TYPICALLY...
MDLS TEND TO WEAKEN A RDG TOO QUICKLY AND THEN BACK OFF (LIKE THE
ECMWF HAS DONE) AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE
HELD OFF ON BRINGING ANY POP WORDING INTO CNTRL WI UNTIL LATE WED
NGT AND KEPT THE EAST DRY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT TRY TO
MOVE EAST INTO WI ON THU...THE ECMWF AND GFS TEND TO WEAKEN THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM AS ITSELF GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE REMAINS OF THE
UPR RDG TO THE EAST AND A NEW UPR RDG BUILDING FROM THE SW CONUS
INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHC POP OVER ALMOST ALL OF
NE WI ON THU...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PCPN.

THIS SYSTEM CONTS TO FIZZLE OUT OVER WI THU NGT AS UPR HEIGHTS
BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT ALL OF NE WI DRY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE EXPANSIVE UPR RDG TO DOMINATE THE SW
QUARTER OF THE CONUS ON FRI LEAVING NE WI UNDER A GENERAL W-NW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS ON FRI DO LOOK MILD AS 8H TEMPS WARM TO
+12C. READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
SEND A CDFNT THRU WI FRI NGT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA AS MSTR
IS NEGLIGIBLE AND ALL THE FORCING TO BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT...A DRY FCST
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...AS WELL AS THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. ISOLATED PATCHY MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190905
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
405 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT WILL BE TRYING TO SATURATE
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. 00Z GRB SOUNDING ONLY HAD .28" PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH SIMILAR VALUES AT INL AND MSP. MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE
MORE LIKE SPRINKLES FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM A DRY ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED
THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES WITH A SW CONUS UPR RDG
AND MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES E-SE TO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE TO BE
THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THU. MDLS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS FEATURE...
THUS PROVIDING A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM DRY TO CHC POPS.
AS FOR TEMPS...ONCE WE GET PAST TUE...READINGS WL GO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AN AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM ERN ONTARIO SW THRU
WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY MON NGT AND BEGIN TO AT LEAST BREAK UP THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. A N-NE WIND MAY
CONT TO BRING LAKE CLOUDS INTO ERN WI THRU THE NGT...THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WL HOLD. WL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...BUT FEEL MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS TRAJS ARE NOT QUITE NE
ENUF. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY OVER CNTRL WI DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT OCCURS. HAVE LOWERED VALUES A COUPLE OF
DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT KEPT THE 40 DEG WORDING OVER ERN
WI UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE SFC RDG AXIS TO REMAIN OVER WI ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPR RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AREA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT COOL
BETWEEN THE E-NE SFC WINDS AND A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPR RDG. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO END UP IN THE 50-50 DEG RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL TUE NGT AS THE SFC RDG TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG EDGES INTO WRN WI. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND MOST LIKELY THE
COOLEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED FCST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND
30 DEGS NORTH...TO THE UPR 30S OVER DOOR COUNTY. THE UPR-LEVEL RDG
IS FCST TO REMAIN PARKED OVER WI THRU WED...BUT DOES BEGIN TO GET
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. STILL ANTICIPATE A SUNNY
DAY OVER NE WI WITH A SLGT BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS WINDS VEER TO THE
S-SE. AS 8H TEMPS REACH +10C...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPR 50S EXCEPT LWR 50S NEAR LAKE MI.

HAD HOPED TO SEE BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOP AMONG THE MDLS WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT HEADED INTO
WED NGT...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF MADE A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN SLOWING
THIS SYSTEM DOWN CLOSER TO THE STEADY GFS. THE MAIN PROBLEM STEMS
FROM HOW FAST TO WEAKEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TYPICALLY...
MDLS TEND TO WEAKEN A RDG TOO QUICKLY AND THEN BACK OFF (LIKE THE
ECMWF HAS DONE) AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE
HELD OFF ON BRINGING ANY POP WORDING INTO CNTRL WI UNTIL LATE WED
NGT AND KEPT THE EAST DRY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT TRY TO
MOVE EAST INTO WI ON THU...THE ECMWF AND GFS TEND TO WEAKEN THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM AS ITSELF GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE REMAINS OF THE
UPR RDG TO THE EAST AND A NEW UPR RDG BUILDING FROM THE SW CONUS
INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHC POP OVER ALMOST ALL OF
NE WI ON THU...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PCPN.

THIS SYSTEM CONTS TO FIZZLE OUT OVER WI THU NGT AS UPR HEIGHTS
BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT ALL OF NE WI DRY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE EXPANSIVE UPR RDG TO DOMINATE THE SW
QUARTER OF THE CONUS ON FRI LEAVING NE WI UNDER A GENERAL W-NW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS ON FRI DO LOOK MILD AS 8H TEMPS WARM TO
+12C. READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
SEND A CDFNT THRU WI FRI NGT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA AS MSTR
IS NEGLIGIBLE AND ALL THE FORCING TO BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT...A DRY FCST
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...AS WELL AS THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. ISOLATED PATCHY MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH







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