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000
FXUS63 KGRB 061943
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TO BE ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

THE 19Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHED
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NE MN...AND CONTINUING INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SD.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SPOTTY SO FAR...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
IN NE MN SOARING TO 90 DEGREES.

THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SE INTO NORTHERN WI THIS
EVENING AND PASS THROUGH CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL WI AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
(STEEP LAPSE RATES/8H LI`S AROUND -2)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVIDENCE
OF A LOW-LEVEL CAP FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE
A SCATTERED LINE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY OVERALL IS GENERALLY WEAK...SO DO
NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH AND BRIEFLY GUST...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WI WHERE THE
WINDS WOULD FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY OR ALONG THE LAKESHORE. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S NORTH/DOOR COUNTY...50-55 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH.

SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER SOME BUILD-UP OF MID CLOUDS IS ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR ALOFT INTERACTS WITH
THE STRONG MAY SUN AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP...JUST MORE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH READINGS AROUND 60 DEGREES
LAKESIDE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH-CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 60S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONTINENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN THE INTERACTION OF LOWS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAKE PRECISE TIMING DIFFICULT. THE RESULT IS A
SMATTERING OF POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO MENTION SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHILE MENTIONS OF THUNDER HAVE LARGELY BEEN
REMOVED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.


SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LARGELY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM SUGGESTS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX QUICKLY SHOOTS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF
AND THE NCAR WRF ENSEMBLE WHICH HAVE A FEW WETTER MEMBERS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT MOISTURE WILL LARGELY BE LACKING AND THE END
RESULT WILL BE DRY. ALSO SPURRED BY A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO AGAIN BE LOW...SIMILAR TO
TODAY AND THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW
RH SHOULD HELP MAKE FINE FUELS RECEPTIVE TO FIRE IGNITION AND
GROWTH...AND A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR IGNITIONS SHOULD EXIST WITH
OPENING WEEKEND FOR THE FISHING SEASON. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER AND WINDS CALMER THAN
TODAY...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

NEXT WEEK...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ANY POTENTIAL
THUNDER LOOKS TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS STILL
FAIRLY LIMITED...SO NOT REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT
ALL. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AND WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOIST
AIR CAN OVERCOME THE CURRENT DRYNESS. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL
IN THE PRECIP MIDWEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS
THE REGION...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFICULTY IN PARSING THE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE MAKE IT HARD TO DELINEATE WHERE ANY
DRY PERIODS MAY OCCUR RIGHT NOW. A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BRING
MORE PRECIP BY LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A
TEMPORARY LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RHI TAF
SITE BY MID-EVENING...THE AUW/CWA TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
THE GRB AND MTW TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST OVER
20 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS TO THE TAF`S THIS EVENING AS
RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MET WITH A GUSTY
WEST WIND OVER 30 KNOTS ABOVE 1K FEET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HI-BASED CU OR
LOW-END ALTOCU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......AK





000
FXUS63 KGRB 061732
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RULE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CAUSE DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. IN ADDITION A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING BRINGS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DEW POINTS BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM...DRY WEATHER COMBINED WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TODAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT WARMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED
WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT AND PROVIDES A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER...WITH
MUCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CAPE
AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WELL AFTER PEAK HEATING THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH LITTLE TO
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF HAIL OR WIND.

CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE 60S AS THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THESE FRONTS
GETS LESS PROLIFIC AS SUMMER APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP POTENTIAL
NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z WED AND
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THRU THIS TIME.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY A QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.  A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.
WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY FALL SHORT OF MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WI DUE TO AMPLE DRY AIR IN PLACE.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS
DURING THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY THRU TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.  UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS...THE DRY
AIRMASS WHICH WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE LOOKS TO GET OVERWHELMED BY
A SOUTHERLY FEED OF MOIST AIR. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE
PRECIP MIDWEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS THE
REGION.  THEN A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BY THU AND
FRI OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A
TEMPORARY LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RHI TAF
SITE BY MID-EVENING...THE AUW/CWA TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
THE GRB AND MTW TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST OVER
20 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS TO THE TAF`S THIS EVENING AS
RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MET WITH A GUSTY
WEST WIND OVER 30 KNOTS ABOVE 1K FEET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HI-BASED CU OR
LOW-END ALTOCU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK





000
FXUS63 KGRB 061732
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RULE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CAUSE DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. IN ADDITION A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING BRINGS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DEW POINTS BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM...DRY WEATHER COMBINED WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TODAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT WARMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED
WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT AND PROVIDES A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER...WITH
MUCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CAPE
AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WELL AFTER PEAK HEATING THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH LITTLE TO
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF HAIL OR WIND.

CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE 60S AS THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THESE FRONTS
GETS LESS PROLIFIC AS SUMMER APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP POTENTIAL
NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z WED AND
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THRU THIS TIME.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY A QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.  A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.
WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY FALL SHORT OF MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WI DUE TO AMPLE DRY AIR IN PLACE.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS
DURING THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY THRU TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.  UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS...THE DRY
AIRMASS WHICH WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE LOOKS TO GET OVERWHELMED BY
A SOUTHERLY FEED OF MOIST AIR. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE
PRECIP MIDWEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS THE
REGION.  THEN A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BY THU AND
FRI OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A
TEMPORARY LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RHI TAF
SITE BY MID-EVENING...THE AUW/CWA TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
THE GRB AND MTW TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST OVER
20 KNOTS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS TO THE TAF`S THIS EVENING AS
RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MET WITH A GUSTY
WEST WIND OVER 30 KNOTS ABOVE 1K FEET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HI-BASED CU OR
LOW-END ALTOCU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK





000
FXUS63 KGRB 061120
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RULE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CAUSE DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. IN ADDITION A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING BRINGS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DEW POINTS BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM...DRY WEATHER COMBINED WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TODAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT WARMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED
WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT AND PROVIDES A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER...WITH
MUCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CAPE
AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WELL AFTER PEAK HEATING THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH LITTLE TO
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF HAIL OR WIND.

CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE 60S AS THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THESE FRONTS
GETS LESS PROLIFIC AS SUMMER APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP POTENTIAL
NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z WED AND
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THRU THIS TIME.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY A QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.  A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.
WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY FALL SHORT OF MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WI DUE TO AMPLE DRY AIR IN PLACE.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS
DURING THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY THRU TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.  UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS...THE DRY
AIRMASS WHICH WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE LOOKS TO GET OVERWHELMED BY
A SOUTHERLY FEED OF MOIST AIR. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE
PRECIP MIDWEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS THE
REGION.  THEN A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BY THU AND
FRI OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH INCLUDE RHI... AUW AND
CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 060908
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RULE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CAUSE DAYTIME HIGHS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. IN ADDITION A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING BRINGS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DEW POINTS BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM...DRY WEATHER COMBINED WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TODAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT WARMING...INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED
WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT AND PROVIDES A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER...WITH
MUCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CAPE
AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WELL AFTER PEAK HEATING THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH LITTLE TO
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF HAIL OR WIND.

CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE 60S AS THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THESE FRONTS
GETS LESS PROLIFIC AS SUMMER APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP POTENTIAL
NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z WED AND
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THRU THIS TIME.  THEREAFTER...WILL
LEAN ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY A QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.  A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.
WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY FALL SHORT OF MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WI DUE TO AMPLE DRY AIR IN PLACE.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS
DURING THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY THRU TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.  UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS...THE DRY
AIRMASS WHICH WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE LOOKS TO GET OVERWHELMED BY
A SOUTHERLY FEED OF MOIST AIR. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE
PRECIP MIDWEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS THE
REGION.  THEN A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BY THU AND
FRI OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF LLWS
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH INCLUDE RHI...AUW
AND CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 060329
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS BROUGHT SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY SO RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY BUT THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON
FRIDAY...BUT NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. MINIMUM REALTIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY AIR AND TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RATHER LOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

NICE WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND MOTHERS DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SO RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE MODEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF LLWS
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH INCLUDE RHI...AUW
AND CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 060329
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS BROUGHT SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY SO RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY BUT THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON
FRIDAY...BUT NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. MINIMUM REALTIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY AIR AND TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RATHER LOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

NICE WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND MOTHERS DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SO RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE MODEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF LLWS
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH INCLUDE RHI...AUW
AND CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 052304
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS BROUGHT SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY SO RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY BUT THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON
FRIDAY...BUT NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. MINIMUM REALTIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY AIR AND TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RATHER LOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

NICE WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND MOTHERS DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SO RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE MODEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF LLWS
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH INCLUDE RHI...AUW
AND CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 052304
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS BROUGHT SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY SO RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY BUT THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON
FRIDAY...BUT NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. MINIMUM REALTIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY AIR AND TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RATHER LOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

NICE WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND MOTHERS DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SO RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE MODEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF LLWS
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH INCLUDE RHI...AUW
AND CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 052022
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
322 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS BROUGHT SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY SO RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY BUT THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON
FRIDAY...BUT NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. MINIMUM REALTIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY AIR AND TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RATHER LOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

NICE WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND MOTHERS DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SO RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE MODEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. EXACT LOCATION DIFFERS AMONG
MODELS BUT CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE MORE LIKELY
PLACES FOR ANY RAIN. POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE THIS IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 051742
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AFTER A MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND FROST ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN UNDER STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE
BAY OF GREEN BAY WITH THE COOLER WATER HOLDING DOWN TEMPERATURES.
FAIRLY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN GENERATING QPF TONIGHT DESPITE A RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSER INSPECTION
SHOWS MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT WITH WEAK BUT
NOTICEABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WINDS BECOME PERPENDICULAR TO THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT BEING MEAGER WILL MEAN POPS WILL STAY SLIGHT CHANCE...IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE...PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY AS CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LIFTS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO SOAR TO 80 TO 85 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE. DEEP MIXING WILL KEEP DEW POINTS RELATIVELY LOW ON
FRIDAY...AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONCE AGAIN DROP
INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. DESPITE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ONLY MAKE IT
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIVERGE WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT.  SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES LINGER IN REGARDS TO
THIS FRONT...AND PREFER A ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM OTHER GUIDANCE.  FOR LATER PERIODS...A ECWMF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
BLEND SHOULD WORK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT.  MODERATE MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL EXIST BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM WILL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS REVEAL MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAN THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...WHICH YIELDS MU CAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. ON THE DOWNSIDE...EFFECTIVE SHEARS ARE LESS THAN 20 KTS AND
THE FRONT WILL RESIDE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK...AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION FOR UPPER DIVERGENCE.  AS A RESULT...THE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER PEAKS UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...THEN DIMINISHES RELATIVELY RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.  THEREFORE THINK THAT ANY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW.  TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE BETWEEN 03Z-12Z
SATURDAY...WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN COOL OFF BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.  ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD EXIT EARLY ON
SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE AND QUIET
ON SUNDAY.  THEN A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHEN
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS PRECIP MOVES
NORTH...IT WILL RUN INTO AMPLE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...SO BEST
CHANCES WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.  THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS TOWARDS THE
REGION.  DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE THRU THU.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. EXACT LOCATION DIFFERS AMONG
MODELS BUT CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE MORE LIKELY
PLACES FOR ANY RAIN. POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE THIS IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 051047
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
547 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AFTER A MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND FROST ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN UNDER STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE
BAY OF GREEN BAY WITH THE COOLER WATER HOLDING DOWN TEMPERATURES.
FAIRLY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN GENERATING QPF TONIGHT DESPITE A RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSER INSPECTION
SHOWS MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT WITH WEAK BUT
NOTICEABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WINDS BECOME PERPENDICULAR TO THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT BEING MEAGER WILL MEAN POPS WILL STAY SLIGHT CHANCE...IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE...PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY AS CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LIFTS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO SOAR TO 80 TO 85 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE. DEEP MIXING WILL KEEP DEW POINTS RELATIVELY LOW ON
FRIDAY...AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONCE AGAIN DROP
INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. DESPITE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ONLY MAKE IT
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIVERGE WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT.  SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES LINGER IN REGARDS TO
THIS FRONT...AND PREFER A ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM OTHER GUIDANCE.  FOR LATER PERIODS...A ECWMF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
BLEND SHOULD WORK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT.  MODERATE MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL EXIST BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM WILL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS REVEAL MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAN THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...WHICH YIELDS MU CAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. ON THE DOWNSIDE...EFFECTIVE SHEARS ARE LESS THAN 20 KTS AND
THE FRONT WILL RESIDE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK...AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION FOR UPPER DIVERGENCE.  AS A RESULT...THE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER PEAKS UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...THEN DIMINISHES RELATIVELY RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.  THEREFORE THINK THAT ANY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW.  TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE BETWEEN 03Z-12Z
SATURDAY...WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN COOL OFF BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.  ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD EXIT EARLY ON
SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE AND QUIET
ON SUNDAY.  THEN A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHEN
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS PRECIP MOVES
NORTH...IT WILL RUN INTO AMPLE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...SO BEST
CHANCES WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.  THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS TOWARDS THE
REGION.  DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE THRU THU.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SOME MVFR AND LIFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT RHI FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO
SOME GROUND FOG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 050804
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AFTER A MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND FROST ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN UNDER STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE
BAY OF GREEN BAY WITH THE COOLER WATER HOLDING DOWN TEMPERATURES.
FAIRLY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN GENERATING QPF TONIGHT DESPITE A RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSER INSPECTION
SHOWS MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT WITH WEAK BUT
NOTICEABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WINDS BECOME PERPENDICULAR TO THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT BEING MEAGER WILL MEAN POPS WILL STAY SLIGHT CHANCE...IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE...PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY AS CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LIFTS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO SOAR TO 80 TO 85 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE. DEEP MIXING WILL KEEP DEW POINTS RELATIVELY LOW ON
FRIDAY...AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONCE AGAIN DROP
INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. DESPITE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ONLY MAKE IT
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIVERGE WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT.  SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES LINGER IN REGARDS TO
THIS FRONT...AND PREFER A ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM OTHER GUIDANCE.  FOR LATER PERIODS...A ECWMF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
BLEND SHOULD WORK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT.  MODERATE MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL EXIST BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM WILL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS REVEAL MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAN THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...WHICH YIELDS MU CAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. ON THE DOWNSIDE...EFFECTIVE SHEARS ARE LESS THAN 20 KTS AND
THE FRONT WILL RESIDE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK...AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION FOR UPPER DIVERGENCE.  AS A RESULT...THE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER PEAKS UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...THEN DIMINISHES RELATIVELY RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.  THEREFORE THINK THAT ANY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW.  TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE BETWEEN 03Z-12Z
SATURDAY...WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN COOL OFF BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.  ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD EXIT EARLY ON
SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE AND QUIET
ON SUNDAY.  THEN A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHEN
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS PRECIP MOVES
NORTH...IT WILL RUN INTO AMPLE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...SO BEST
CHANCES WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.  THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS TOWARDS THE
REGION.  DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE THRU THU.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 050342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR THE
LAKE...AND IN THE 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT...FROST IS LIKELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. CURRENTLY...WE ARE ONLY DOING FROST
HEADLINES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE AT THE
MOMENT. WE WILL NOT BE STARTING FROST HEADLINES FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL GROWING SEASON BEGINS IN EARNEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE.

A SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND BAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READING
WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME OF THE SANDY
SOIL REGIONS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONCERNS ARE MOSTLY WITH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM.
THOUGH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING
MINOR AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION. THE 12Z NAM
HAD SOME MINOR CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOO SO HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL UPPER
SUPPORT.

CAPE VALUES INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODELS SHOWED
DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SO FIRE WEATHER FOLKS WILL
WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LATER FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AND
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

HAVE LEFT THE INITIAL MODEL BLENDED LONG TERM GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST SINCE THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS STARTED TO SHOW
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME PART...OR ALL...OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 042244
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
544 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR THE
LAKE...AND IN THE 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT...FROST IS LIKELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. CURRENTLY...WE ARE ONLY DOING FROST
HEADLINES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE AT THE
MOMENT. WE WILL NOT BE STARTING FROST HEADLINES FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL GROWING SEASON BEGINS IN EARNEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE.

A SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND BAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READING
WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME OF THE SANDY
SOIL REGIONS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONCERNS ARE MOSTLY WITH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM.
THOUGH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING
MINOR AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION. THE 12Z NAM
HAD SOME MINOR CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOO SO HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL UPPER
SUPPORT.

CAPE VALUES INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODELS SHOWED
DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SO FIRE WEATHER FOLKS WILL
WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LATER FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AND
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

HAVE LEFT THE INITIAL MODEL BLENDED LONG TERM GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST SINCE THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS STARTED TO SHOW
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME PART...OR ALL...OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS
EASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 042244
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
544 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR THE
LAKE...AND IN THE 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT...FROST IS LIKELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. CURRENTLY...WE ARE ONLY DOING FROST
HEADLINES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE AT THE
MOMENT. WE WILL NOT BE STARTING FROST HEADLINES FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL GROWING SEASON BEGINS IN EARNEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE.

A SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND BAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READING
WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME OF THE SANDY
SOIL REGIONS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONCERNS ARE MOSTLY WITH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM.
THOUGH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING
MINOR AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION. THE 12Z NAM
HAD SOME MINOR CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOO SO HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL UPPER
SUPPORT.

CAPE VALUES INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODELS SHOWED
DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SO FIRE WEATHER FOLKS WILL
WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LATER FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AND
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

HAVE LEFT THE INITIAL MODEL BLENDED LONG TERM GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST SINCE THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS STARTED TO SHOW
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME PART...OR ALL...OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS
EASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 041952
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR THE
LAKE...AND IN THE 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT...FROST IS LIKELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. CURRENTLY...WE ARE ONLY DOING FROST
HEADLINES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE AT THE
MOMENT. WE WILL NOT BE STARTING FROST HEADLINES FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL GROWING SEASON BEGINS IN EARNEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE.

A SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND BAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READING
WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME OF THE SANDY
SOIL REGIONS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONCERNS ARE MOSTLY WITH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM.
THOUGH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING
MINOR AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION. THE 12Z NAM
HAD SOME MINOR CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOO SO HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL UPPER
SUPPORT.

CAPE VALUES INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODELS SHOWED
DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SO FIRE WEATHER FOLKS WILL
WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LATER FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AND
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

HAVE LEFT THE INITIAL MODEL BLENDED LONG TERM GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST SINCE THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS STARTED TO SHOW
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME PART...OR ALL...OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 041747
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOLER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORT
MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL FORCING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS AT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOWS COULD APPROACH FREEZING...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS STARTED. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN CREEP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. FURTHER NORTH THERE
WILL BE NO HEADLINES DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEADLINES FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT STARTED.

THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB A GOOD 10
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING.  WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...WITH SOME FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES PRESENT.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW INCREASING ABOVE 7 C/KM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS SOME MODEST CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.  BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK SO
DRY...AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EITHER.  PREFER TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING.  FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY WARM DAY
AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  925MB TEMPS CONTINUES TO
ARGUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.  THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO SURFACE CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES...AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY DRY.  ANY
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.  STILL THOUGH...THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
DEPARTING BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AN ARCING BAND OF PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT.  AS
A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THREAT LOOKS BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...HOWEVER...WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 041747
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOLER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORT
MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL FORCING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS AT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOWS COULD APPROACH FREEZING...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS STARTED. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN CREEP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. FURTHER NORTH THERE
WILL BE NO HEADLINES DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEADLINES FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT STARTED.

THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB A GOOD 10
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING.  WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...WITH SOME FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES PRESENT.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW INCREASING ABOVE 7 C/KM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS SOME MODEST CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.  BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK SO
DRY...AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EITHER.  PREFER TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING.  FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY WARM DAY
AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  925MB TEMPS CONTINUES TO
ARGUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.  THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO SURFACE CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES...AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY DRY.  ANY
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.  STILL THOUGH...THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
DEPARTING BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AN ARCING BAND OF PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT.  AS
A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THREAT LOOKS BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...HOWEVER...WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 041055
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOLER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORT
MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL FORCING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS AT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOWS COULD APPROACH FREEZING...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS STARTED. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN CREEP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. FURTHER NORTH THERE
WILL BE NO HEADLINES DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEADLINES FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT STARTED.

THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB A GOOD 10
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING.  WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...WITH SOME FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES PRESENT.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW INCREASING ABOVE 7 C/KM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS SOME MODEST CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.  BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK SO
DRY...AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EITHER.  PREFER TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING.  FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY WARM DAY
AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  925MB TEMPS CONTINUES TO
ARGUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.  THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO SURFACE CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES...AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY DRY.  ANY
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.  STILL THOUGH...THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
DEPARTING BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AN ARCING BAND OF PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT.  AS
A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THREAT LOOKS BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...HOWEVER...WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BLUSTERY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WINDS SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030-035-036-
045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 041055
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOLER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORT
MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL FORCING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS AT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOWS COULD APPROACH FREEZING...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS STARTED. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN CREEP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. FURTHER NORTH THERE
WILL BE NO HEADLINES DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEADLINES FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT STARTED.

THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB A GOOD 10
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING.  WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...WITH SOME FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES PRESENT.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW INCREASING ABOVE 7 C/KM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS SOME MODEST CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.  BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK SO
DRY...AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EITHER.  PREFER TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING.  FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY WARM DAY
AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  925MB TEMPS CONTINUES TO
ARGUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.  THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO SURFACE CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES...AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY DRY.  ANY
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.  STILL THOUGH...THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
DEPARTING BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AN ARCING BAND OF PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT.  AS
A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THREAT LOOKS BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...HOWEVER...WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BLUSTERY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WINDS SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030-035-036-
045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 040752
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOLER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORT
MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL FORCING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS AT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOWS COULD APPROACH FREEZING...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS STARTED. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN CREEP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. FURTHER NORTH THERE
WILL BE NO HEADLINES DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEADLINES FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT STARTED.

THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB A GOOD 10
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING.  WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...WITH SOME FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES PRESENT.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW INCREASING ABOVE 7 C/KM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS SOME MODEST CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.  BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK SO
DRY...AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EITHER.  PREFER TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING.  FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY WARM DAY
AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  925MB TEMPS CONTINUES TO
ARGUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.  THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO SURFACE CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES...AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY DRY.  ANY
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.  STILL THOUGH...THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
DEPARTING BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AN ARCING BAND OF PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT.  AS
A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THREAT LOOKS BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...HOWEVER...WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHOWERS WILL DEPART EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES CLEARED. ANTICIPATE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY MORNING. BLUSTERY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH
EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030-035-036-
045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 040336
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIRRUS
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WAS CONCERNED THAT SOME HAIL WOULD DEVELOP TODAY DUE
TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND INL SOUNDINGS. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. ONCE THE INVERSION BURNED OFF CUMULUS
DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...AS SURFACE TO 1.5KM
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCREASED INTO THE 8.5 TO
10.5C/KM RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAD MUCAPE
VALUES OF 600-800J/KG IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 00Z SO THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE NIGHT BUT MODELS DID
HAVE SOME QPF IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN
SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE A BIG WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AND A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDS NGT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS LATE
THU INTO THU NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE FRONT IS TIMING THROUGH FASTER THAN INDICATED THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND WILL BE MOVG THROUGH DURING THE LEAST UNSTABLE
TIME OF DAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A H8 WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHOWERS WILL DEPART EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES CLEARED. ANTICIPATE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY MORNING. BLUSTERY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH
EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 040336
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIRRUS
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WAS CONCERNED THAT SOME HAIL WOULD DEVELOP TODAY DUE
TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND INL SOUNDINGS. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. ONCE THE INVERSION BURNED OFF CUMULUS
DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...AS SURFACE TO 1.5KM
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCREASED INTO THE 8.5 TO
10.5C/KM RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAD MUCAPE
VALUES OF 600-800J/KG IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 00Z SO THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE NIGHT BUT MODELS DID
HAVE SOME QPF IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN
SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE A BIG WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AND A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDS NGT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS LATE
THU INTO THU NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE FRONT IS TIMING THROUGH FASTER THAN INDICATED THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND WILL BE MOVG THROUGH DURING THE LEAST UNSTABLE
TIME OF DAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A H8 WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHOWERS WILL DEPART EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES CLEARED. ANTICIPATE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY MORNING. BLUSTERY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH
EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 032221
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
521 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIRRUS
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WAS CONCERNED THAT SOME HAIL WOULD DEVELOP TODAY DUE
TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND INL SOUNDINGS. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. ONCE THE INVERSION BURNED OFF CUMULUS
DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...AS SURFACE TO 1.5KM
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCREASED INTO THE 8.5 TO
10.5C/KM RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAD MUCAPE
VALUES OF 600-800J/KG IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 00Z SO THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE NIGHT BUT MODELS DID
HAVE SOME QPF IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN
SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE A BIG WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AND A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDS NGT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS LATE
THU INTO THU NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE FRONT IS TIMING THROUGH FASTER THAN INDICATED THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND WILL BE MOVG THROUGH DURING THE LEAST UNSTABLE
TIME OF DAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A H8 WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WAS ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE AREA. NORTHERN RADARS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF STRONGER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE TRAILING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND ALONG THE 850 COLD FRONT. THIS TRAILING BAND MAY HAVE THE
BETTER POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP TSRA IN THE
TAFS A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR OR HIGHER END MVFR
DIURNAL CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......





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