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000
FXUS63 KGRB 012304
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES WITH GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TIMING OF A FEW PRECIP CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FOCUS.

FIRST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE AND PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE AREA.  PROGS STALL THIS FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH LATE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS
AND RETURN FLOW. PROGS SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL ELEMENT TO THE PCPN
SO WILL TREND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE LOW.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLIES. A STRONG
TROUGH SLIDING OVER CANADA WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT SETTLE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LOW CLOUDS FINALLY EXITED EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT TOO...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN
IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT...BUT WOULD SEEM TO BE MOST LIKELY IN EAST
CENTRAL WI...WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS (LOWER 50S) WERE LOCATED.
WILL WATCH TRENDS THIS EVENING AND TRY TO ADD MORE DETAIL FOR
THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 012304
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES WITH GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TIMING OF A FEW PRECIP CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FOCUS.

FIRST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE AND PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE AREA.  PROGS STALL THIS FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH LATE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS
AND RETURN FLOW. PROGS SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL ELEMENT TO THE PCPN
SO WILL TREND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE LOW.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLIES. A STRONG
TROUGH SLIDING OVER CANADA WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT SETTLE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LOW CLOUDS FINALLY EXITED EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT TOO...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN
IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT...BUT WOULD SEEM TO BE MOST LIKELY IN EAST
CENTRAL WI...WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS (LOWER 50S) WERE LOCATED.
WILL WATCH TRENDS THIS EVENING AND TRY TO ADD MORE DETAIL FOR
THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011948
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES WITH GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TIMING OF A FEW PRECIP CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FOCUS.

FIRST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE AND PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE AREA.  PROGS STALL THIS FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH LATE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS
AND RETURN FLOW. PROGS SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL ELEMENT TO THE PCPN
SO WILL TREND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE LOW.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLIES. A STRONG
TROUGH SLIDING OVER CANADA WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT SETTLE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AT MTW WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTRORE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
CHANCE OF GROUND FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011948
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES WITH GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TIMING OF A FEW PRECIP CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FOCUS.

FIRST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE AND PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE AREA.  PROGS STALL THIS FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH LATE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS
AND RETURN FLOW. PROGS SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL ELEMENT TO THE PCPN
SO WILL TREND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE LOW.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLIES. A STRONG
TROUGH SLIDING OVER CANADA WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT SETTLE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AT MTW WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTRORE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
CHANCE OF GROUND FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011948
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES WITH GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TIMING OF A FEW PRECIP CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FOCUS.

FIRST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE AND PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE AREA.  PROGS STALL THIS FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH LATE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS
AND RETURN FLOW. PROGS SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL ELEMENT TO THE PCPN
SO WILL TREND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE LOW.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLIES. A STRONG
TROUGH SLIDING OVER CANADA WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT SETTLE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AT MTW WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTRORE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
CHANCE OF GROUND FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011948
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES WITH GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TIMING OF A FEW PRECIP CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FOCUS.

FIRST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE AND PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE AREA.  PROGS STALL THIS FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH LATE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS
AND RETURN FLOW. PROGS SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL ELEMENT TO THE PCPN
SO WILL TREND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE LOW.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLIES. A STRONG
TROUGH SLIDING OVER CANADA WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT SETTLE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AT MTW WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTRORE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
CHANCE OF GROUND FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011748
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

QUIET SUMMER WEATHER. SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
WARMER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

UPR ANTICYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WL REMAIN IN PLACE
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN SHIFT WNWWD/REFORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THAT WL ALLOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
RGN TO GRADUALLY FILL. THOSE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE NWLY UPR FLOW
INTO THE FCST AREA VEERING MORE WLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE NWLY UPR
FLOW...THEN MODERATE BACK TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND. READINGS COULD FALL OFF A BIT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WK AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NWLY UPR FLOW EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WL KEEP DRY CANADIAN AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN...SO
PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EVEN THAT
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GREAT PCPN PRODUCER...SO PCPN AMNTS WL
PROBABLY END UP AOB NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANQUIL WX THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS WERE QUITE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY NRN WI REPORTING STNS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

BAND OF CLDS DROPPING SWD OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
WL CLIP ERN WI AT LEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE CLDS DURING THE SHORT-TERM. DRY
AIR AND SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN FAIRLY LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
RANGES. HIGHS TDA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YDA DUE TO THE ADDED
SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS. MINS TNGT WL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN...BUT
PROBABLY NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPS THU...EXCEPT NR LAKE MICHIGAN WERE
A MORE ELY FLOW WL DRIVE LAKE-COOLING FARTHER INLAND. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RESULTED IN PRETTY
REASONABLE LOOKING MAX TEMP GRIDS...THOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENT WAS
NEEDED NR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW
FLATTENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK....WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER.  WILL RELY ON THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WISCONSIN WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO FRONTS...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT.  THE FRONT OVER ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.  AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.  THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OVER WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  UPPER SUPPORT
PULLS AWAY BY THIS TIME...SO CANNOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED MENTION.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS SPIT OUT QPF ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT.  TEND TO THINK GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE.  THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN
WARMER AIR.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AT MTW WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTRORE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
CHANCE OF GROUND FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011748
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

QUIET SUMMER WEATHER. SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
WARMER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

UPR ANTICYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WL REMAIN IN PLACE
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN SHIFT WNWWD/REFORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THAT WL ALLOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
RGN TO GRADUALLY FILL. THOSE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE NWLY UPR FLOW
INTO THE FCST AREA VEERING MORE WLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE NWLY UPR
FLOW...THEN MODERATE BACK TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND. READINGS COULD FALL OFF A BIT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WK AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NWLY UPR FLOW EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WL KEEP DRY CANADIAN AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN...SO
PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EVEN THAT
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GREAT PCPN PRODUCER...SO PCPN AMNTS WL
PROBABLY END UP AOB NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANQUIL WX THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS WERE QUITE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY NRN WI REPORTING STNS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

BAND OF CLDS DROPPING SWD OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
WL CLIP ERN WI AT LEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE CLDS DURING THE SHORT-TERM. DRY
AIR AND SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN FAIRLY LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
RANGES. HIGHS TDA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YDA DUE TO THE ADDED
SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS. MINS TNGT WL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN...BUT
PROBABLY NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPS THU...EXCEPT NR LAKE MICHIGAN WERE
A MORE ELY FLOW WL DRIVE LAKE-COOLING FARTHER INLAND. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RESULTED IN PRETTY
REASONABLE LOOKING MAX TEMP GRIDS...THOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENT WAS
NEEDED NR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW
FLATTENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK....WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER.  WILL RELY ON THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WISCONSIN WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO FRONTS...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT.  THE FRONT OVER ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.  AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.  THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OVER WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  UPPER SUPPORT
PULLS AWAY BY THIS TIME...SO CANNOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED MENTION.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS SPIT OUT QPF ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT.  TEND TO THINK GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE.  THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN
WARMER AIR.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AT MTW WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTRORE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
CHANCE OF GROUND FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011748
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

QUIET SUMMER WEATHER. SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
WARMER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

UPR ANTICYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WL REMAIN IN PLACE
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN SHIFT WNWWD/REFORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THAT WL ALLOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
RGN TO GRADUALLY FILL. THOSE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE NWLY UPR FLOW
INTO THE FCST AREA VEERING MORE WLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE NWLY UPR
FLOW...THEN MODERATE BACK TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND. READINGS COULD FALL OFF A BIT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WK AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NWLY UPR FLOW EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WL KEEP DRY CANADIAN AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN...SO
PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EVEN THAT
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GREAT PCPN PRODUCER...SO PCPN AMNTS WL
PROBABLY END UP AOB NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANQUIL WX THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS WERE QUITE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY NRN WI REPORTING STNS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

BAND OF CLDS DROPPING SWD OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
WL CLIP ERN WI AT LEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE CLDS DURING THE SHORT-TERM. DRY
AIR AND SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN FAIRLY LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
RANGES. HIGHS TDA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YDA DUE TO THE ADDED
SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS. MINS TNGT WL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN...BUT
PROBABLY NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPS THU...EXCEPT NR LAKE MICHIGAN WERE
A MORE ELY FLOW WL DRIVE LAKE-COOLING FARTHER INLAND. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RESULTED IN PRETTY
REASONABLE LOOKING MAX TEMP GRIDS...THOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENT WAS
NEEDED NR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW
FLATTENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK....WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER.  WILL RELY ON THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WISCONSIN WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO FRONTS...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT.  THE FRONT OVER ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.  AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.  THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OVER WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  UPPER SUPPORT
PULLS AWAY BY THIS TIME...SO CANNOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED MENTION.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS SPIT OUT QPF ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT.  TEND TO THINK GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE.  THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN
WARMER AIR.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AT MTW WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTRORE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
CHANCE OF GROUND FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011748
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

QUIET SUMMER WEATHER. SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
WARMER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

UPR ANTICYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WL REMAIN IN PLACE
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN SHIFT WNWWD/REFORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THAT WL ALLOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
RGN TO GRADUALLY FILL. THOSE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE NWLY UPR FLOW
INTO THE FCST AREA VEERING MORE WLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE NWLY UPR
FLOW...THEN MODERATE BACK TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND. READINGS COULD FALL OFF A BIT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WK AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NWLY UPR FLOW EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WL KEEP DRY CANADIAN AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN...SO
PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EVEN THAT
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GREAT PCPN PRODUCER...SO PCPN AMNTS WL
PROBABLY END UP AOB NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANQUIL WX THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS WERE QUITE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY NRN WI REPORTING STNS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

BAND OF CLDS DROPPING SWD OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
WL CLIP ERN WI AT LEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE CLDS DURING THE SHORT-TERM. DRY
AIR AND SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN FAIRLY LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
RANGES. HIGHS TDA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YDA DUE TO THE ADDED
SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS. MINS TNGT WL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN...BUT
PROBABLY NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPS THU...EXCEPT NR LAKE MICHIGAN WERE
A MORE ELY FLOW WL DRIVE LAKE-COOLING FARTHER INLAND. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RESULTED IN PRETTY
REASONABLE LOOKING MAX TEMP GRIDS...THOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENT WAS
NEEDED NR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW
FLATTENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK....WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER.  WILL RELY ON THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WISCONSIN WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO FRONTS...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT.  THE FRONT OVER ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.  AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.  THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OVER WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  UPPER SUPPORT
PULLS AWAY BY THIS TIME...SO CANNOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED MENTION.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS SPIT OUT QPF ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT.  TEND TO THINK GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE.  THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN
WARMER AIR.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AT MTW WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTRORE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
CHANCE OF GROUND FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM





000
FXUS63 KGRB 010746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

QUIET SUMMER WEATHER. SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
WARMER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

UPR ANTICYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WL REMAIN IN PLACE
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN SHIFT WNWWD/REFORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THAT WL ALLOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
RGN TO GRADUALLY FILL. THOSE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE NWLY UPR FLOW
INTO THE FCST AREA VEERING MORE WLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE NWLY UPR
FLOW...THEN MODERATE BACK TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND. READINGS COULD FALL OFF A BIT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WK AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NWLY UPR FLOW EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WL KEEP DRY CANADIAN AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN...SO
PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EVEN THAT
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GREAT PCPN PRODUCER...SO PCPN AMNTS WL
PROBABLY END UP AOB NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANQUIL WX THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS WERE QUITE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY NRN WI REPORTING STNS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

BAND OF CLDS DROPPING SWD OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
WL CLIP ERN WI AT LEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE CLDS DURING THE SHORT-TERM. DRY
AIR AND SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN FAIRLY LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
RANGES. HIGHS TDA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YDA DUE TO THE ADDED
SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS. MINS TNGT WL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN...BUT
PROBABLY NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPS THU...EXCEPT NR LAKE MICHIGAN WERE
A MORE ELY FLOW WL DRIVE LAKE-COOLING FARTHER INLAND. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RESULTED IN PRETTY
REASONABLE LOOKING MAX TEMP GRIDS...THOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENT WAS
NEEDED NR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW
FLATTENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK....WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER.  WILL RELY ON THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WISCONSIN WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO FRONTS...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT.  THE FRONT OVER ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.  AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.  THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OVER WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  UPPER SUPPORT
PULLS AWAY BY THIS TIME...SO CANNOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED MENTION.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS SPIT OUT QPF ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT.  TEND TO THINK GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE.  THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN
WARMER AIR.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS WWD EXTENT OF LOW CLDS NOW OVER LAKES
MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. MTW AND GRB TAF SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED...BUT CLDS COULD REACH ATW AT TIMES AS WELL. THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THEM IN THE TAFS WL BE AN ISSUANCE TIME DECISION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 010746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

QUIET SUMMER WEATHER. SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
WARMER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

UPR ANTICYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WL REMAIN IN PLACE
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN SHIFT WNWWD/REFORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THAT WL ALLOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
RGN TO GRADUALLY FILL. THOSE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE NWLY UPR FLOW
INTO THE FCST AREA VEERING MORE WLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE NWLY UPR
FLOW...THEN MODERATE BACK TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND. READINGS COULD FALL OFF A BIT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WK AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NWLY UPR FLOW EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WL KEEP DRY CANADIAN AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN...SO
PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EVEN THAT
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GREAT PCPN PRODUCER...SO PCPN AMNTS WL
PROBABLY END UP AOB NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANQUIL WX THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS WERE QUITE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY NRN WI REPORTING STNS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

BAND OF CLDS DROPPING SWD OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
WL CLIP ERN WI AT LEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE CLDS DURING THE SHORT-TERM. DRY
AIR AND SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN FAIRLY LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
RANGES. HIGHS TDA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YDA DUE TO THE ADDED
SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS. MINS TNGT WL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN...BUT
PROBABLY NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPS THU...EXCEPT NR LAKE MICHIGAN WERE
A MORE ELY FLOW WL DRIVE LAKE-COOLING FARTHER INLAND. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RESULTED IN PRETTY
REASONABLE LOOKING MAX TEMP GRIDS...THOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENT WAS
NEEDED NR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW
FLATTENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK....WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER.  WILL RELY ON THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WISCONSIN WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO FRONTS...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT.  THE FRONT OVER ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.  AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.  THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OVER WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  UPPER SUPPORT
PULLS AWAY BY THIS TIME...SO CANNOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED MENTION.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS SPIT OUT QPF ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT.  TEND TO THINK GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE.  THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN
WARMER AIR.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS WWD EXTENT OF LOW CLDS NOW OVER LAKES
MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. MTW AND GRB TAF SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED...BUT CLDS COULD REACH ATW AT TIMES AS WELL. THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THEM IN THE TAFS WL BE AN ISSUANCE TIME DECISION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 010333
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO NE WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVED INTO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE. WAS RELUCTANT TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AS MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLE FALLING JUST UNDER 40
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD HAPPEN TO CLEAR OUT. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CONDITIONS. WITH LESS MOISTURE...PLUS
SOME CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNDER CONTROL.

A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MAY
CAUSE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO BRUSH LAKESHORE LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES OVER NE WI AND MODELS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER
SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM
BUT SOME FLATTENING OF FLOW FORECAST AS TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
THEN CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT BEST
CHC OF PRECIP AS CANADIAN TROF MOVES TOWARD WESTERN LAKES. TIMING
OF SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION STILL UNCERTAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD...GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE MEDIUM
CHANCE POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

TEMPS THRU PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE BUT ADJUSTED
UP A BIT AROUND WATERS OF GREEN BAY/DOOR COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR CLOUDS LINGERED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS ARE GETTING SMALL OVER NC WI...BENEATH
THE SFC HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
THERE. WILL ADD A TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR VSBYS AT RHI. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FOG TO THE OTHER TAF SITES RIGHT NOW.

ASIDE FROM THE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE LAKESHORE EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...AND PATCHY FOG IN NC WI OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 010333
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO NE WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVED INTO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE. WAS RELUCTANT TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AS MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLE FALLING JUST UNDER 40
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD HAPPEN TO CLEAR OUT. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CONDITIONS. WITH LESS MOISTURE...PLUS
SOME CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNDER CONTROL.

A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MAY
CAUSE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO BRUSH LAKESHORE LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES OVER NE WI AND MODELS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER
SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM
BUT SOME FLATTENING OF FLOW FORECAST AS TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
THEN CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT BEST
CHC OF PRECIP AS CANADIAN TROF MOVES TOWARD WESTERN LAKES. TIMING
OF SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION STILL UNCERTAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD...GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE MEDIUM
CHANCE POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

TEMPS THRU PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE BUT ADJUSTED
UP A BIT AROUND WATERS OF GREEN BAY/DOOR COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR CLOUDS LINGERED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS ARE GETTING SMALL OVER NC WI...BENEATH
THE SFC HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
THERE. WILL ADD A TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR VSBYS AT RHI. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FOG TO THE OTHER TAF SITES RIGHT NOW.

ASIDE FROM THE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE LAKESHORE EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...AND PATCHY FOG IN NC WI OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 010000
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO NE WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVED INTO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE. WAS RELUCTANT TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AS MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLE FALLING JUST UNDER 40
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD HAPPEN TO CLEAR OUT. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CONDITIONS. WITH LESS MOISTURE...PLUS
SOME CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNDER CONTROL.

A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MAY
CAUSE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO BRUSH LAKESHORE LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES OVER NE WI AND MODELS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER
SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM
BUT SOME FLATTENING OF FLOW FORECAST AS TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
THEN CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT BEST
CHC OF PRECIP AS CANADIAN TROF MOVES TOWARD WESTERN LAKES. TIMING
OF SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION STILL UNCERTAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD...GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE MEDIUM
CHANCE POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

TEMPS THRU PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE BUT ADJUSTED
UP A BIT AROUND WATERS OF GREEN BAY/DOOR COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOW CLOUDS (MVFR AND LOW-END VFR) WERE ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY THIS
EVG. CLEARING WILL PROBABLY BE DELAYED ALONG THE LAKESHORE UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING...AS NORTH WINDS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS FROM
THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
WILL MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FOR THE MTW TAF SITE
THIS EVENING.

TOUGH CALL ON FOG POTENTIAL OVER NC/C WI OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE RIDGED OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
RESULTING IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE GROUND IS LIKELY
STILL MOIST FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. HOWEVER...THE INCOMING
CANADIAN AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KTS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY MENTION
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE RHI TAF SITE...AND LEAVE IT OUT ELSEWHERE.

ASIDE FROM THE LKSHR AREAS THIS EVG...AND PATCHY FOG NC WI
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 010000
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO NE WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVED INTO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE. WAS RELUCTANT TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AS MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLE FALLING JUST UNDER 40
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD HAPPEN TO CLEAR OUT. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CONDITIONS. WITH LESS MOISTURE...PLUS
SOME CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNDER CONTROL.

A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MAY
CAUSE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO BRUSH LAKESHORE LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES OVER NE WI AND MODELS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER
SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM
BUT SOME FLATTENING OF FLOW FORECAST AS TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
THEN CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT BEST
CHC OF PRECIP AS CANADIAN TROF MOVES TOWARD WESTERN LAKES. TIMING
OF SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION STILL UNCERTAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD...GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE MEDIUM
CHANCE POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

TEMPS THRU PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE BUT ADJUSTED
UP A BIT AROUND WATERS OF GREEN BAY/DOOR COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOW CLOUDS (MVFR AND LOW-END VFR) WERE ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY THIS
EVG. CLEARING WILL PROBABLY BE DELAYED ALONG THE LAKESHORE UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING...AS NORTH WINDS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS FROM
THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
WILL MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FOR THE MTW TAF SITE
THIS EVENING.

TOUGH CALL ON FOG POTENTIAL OVER NC/C WI OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE RIDGED OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
RESULTING IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE GROUND IS LIKELY
STILL MOIST FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. HOWEVER...THE INCOMING
CANADIAN AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KTS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY MENTION
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE RHI TAF SITE...AND LEAVE IT OUT ELSEWHERE.

ASIDE FROM THE LKSHR AREAS THIS EVG...AND PATCHY FOG NC WI
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 301912
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
212 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO NE WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVED INTO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE. WAS RELUCTANT TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AS MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLE FALLING JUST UNDER 40
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD HAPPEN TO CLEAR OUT. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CONDITIONS. WITH LESS MOISTURE...PLUS
SOME CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNDER CONTROL.

A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MAY
CAUSE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO BRUSH LAKESHORE LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES OVER NE WI AND MODELS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER
SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM
BUT SOME FLATTENING OF FLOW FORECAST AS TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
THEN CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT BEST
CHC OF PRECIP AS CANADIAN TROF MOVES TOWARD WESTERN LAKES. TIMING
OF SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION STILL UNCERTAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD...GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE MEDIUM
CHANCE POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

TEMPS THRU PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE BUT ADJUSTED
UP A BIT AROUND WATERS OF GREEN BAY/DOOR COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ADDED SOME IFR CIGS AND MVFR
CIGS IN RHI TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 301912
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
212 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO NE WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVED INTO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE. WAS RELUCTANT TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AS MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLE FALLING JUST UNDER 40
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD HAPPEN TO CLEAR OUT. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CONDITIONS. WITH LESS MOISTURE...PLUS
SOME CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNDER CONTROL.

A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MAY
CAUSE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO BRUSH LAKESHORE LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES OVER NE WI AND MODELS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER
SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM
BUT SOME FLATTENING OF FLOW FORECAST AS TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
THEN CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR NEXT BEST
CHC OF PRECIP AS CANADIAN TROF MOVES TOWARD WESTERN LAKES. TIMING
OF SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION STILL UNCERTAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD...GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE MEDIUM
CHANCE POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

TEMPS THRU PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE BUT ADJUSTED
UP A BIT AROUND WATERS OF GREEN BAY/DOOR COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ADDED SOME IFR CIGS AND MVFR
CIGS IN RHI TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 301659
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

NWLY UPR FLOW WL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...BUT WITH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE FLOW. A FRESH SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN READINGS SHOULD
WARM BACK TO NR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE ANY
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA IN THE E END TDA...THE NEXT SIG CHC FOR PCPN
WL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WL PROBABLY COME DOWN TO
WHAT OCCURS WITH THAT EVENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN WERE
SLOW TO EXIT THE E THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS ALSO HAD A TENDENCY TO
BACKBUILD. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE REMAINING
FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WL NEED TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FAR E AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. FINAL POPS WL BE AN ISSUANCE
TIME DECISION. SOME FG WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING FM NW-SE...WL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT
WITHOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TDA/S HIGHS WERE
COOLER THAN PREV FCST. TRENDED FCST IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH WAS
NOT COMFORTABLE GOING QUITE AS COOL AS GUIDANCE INDICATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE RGN TNGT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH LGT WINDS...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME
FG AGAIN TNGT. THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FCST...SO STUCK WITH IT. THE
NAM/S LOW-LEVEL RH LOOKED TOO HIGH ON WED...SO TRENDED TOWARD
SUNNIER CONDITIONS. EDGED MINS TNGT DOWN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...THEN STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND FOR
WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PREVAILING AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG/
E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL CONT THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE CLOSED UPR LOW (FOR SUMMER) TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND FLATTEN THE UPR RDG IN THE PROCESS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WL TURN
THE FLOW CLOSER TO ZONAL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS TO BE TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AROUND FRI AND A CDFNT AROUND MON.

HI PRES IS FCST TO BE PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED NGT AND
WL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
NE WI. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WL SEND MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. IF ENUF DRY
AIR CAN ADVECT INTO THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE OF UPR 30S FOR TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS SFC HI WL
STRETCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THU...SO
ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONSIDERING WE ARE IN EARLY JULY. DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE
DAY...THE DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR
70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

MODELS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE MIDWEST
THU NGT...HOWEVER WITH THE SFC HI ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
DO NOT SEE HOW ANY PCPN CAN MAKE A PUSH IN OUR DIRECTION. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLGT CHC POP FROM CNTRL WI AND KEEP SKY CONDITIONS
EITHER MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. THE AIR MASS OVER WI TO HAVE
MODIFIED A BIT BY THU NGT...THUS TEMPS WL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL AS
WED NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR 50S
NORTH...TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. QUESTIONS THEN ARISE FOR FRI AS THE
MODELS ARE IN DISPUTE WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THIS TROF TO WEAKEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO PASS TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE STUBBORN SFC HI TO HANG AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FOR
ONE MORE DAY. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION MAY TRY TO PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
POP...BUT THE PCPN CHCS SEEM TO BE DWINDLING THE CLOSER TO FRI WE
GET. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE UPR
70S OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING FLATTENED BY THE UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN
CANADA. THIS WL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND BRING A DRY FCST FOR THE 4TH
OF JULY FESTIVITIES. MAX TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL WHICH TRANSLATES
TO THE LWR TO MID 70S LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80
DEGS SOUTH.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY WIND IS FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE CANADIAN UPR LOW (AND SFC LOW) REACH MANITOBA
AND A CDFNT TO STRETCH S-SW TOWARD THE CNTRL HI PLAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION MAY ATTEMPT TO THROW A SLGT
CHC POP INTO THE FCST DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DO
NOT SEE ANY TRIGGER (FRONTS...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...JET
STREAKS...ETC.) TO SET PCPN OFF. THUS...NE WI COULD VERY WELL HAVE
A COMPLETELY DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A DEG OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EXPECTED (AWAY
FROM THE LAKE).

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR OUR NEXT
BEST CHC OF SEEING SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AS THE CDFNT DRIVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THE FNT STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME (SUNDAY NGT OR MON)...SO WL CARRY MEDIUM CHC POPS FOR BOTH
PERIODS FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FROPA
OCCURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ADDED SOME IFR CIGS AND MVFR
CIGS IN RHI TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 301659
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

NWLY UPR FLOW WL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...BUT WITH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE FLOW. A FRESH SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN READINGS SHOULD
WARM BACK TO NR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE ANY
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA IN THE E END TDA...THE NEXT SIG CHC FOR PCPN
WL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WL PROBABLY COME DOWN TO
WHAT OCCURS WITH THAT EVENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN WERE
SLOW TO EXIT THE E THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS ALSO HAD A TENDENCY TO
BACKBUILD. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE REMAINING
FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WL NEED TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FAR E AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. FINAL POPS WL BE AN ISSUANCE
TIME DECISION. SOME FG WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING FM NW-SE...WL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT
WITHOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TDA/S HIGHS WERE
COOLER THAN PREV FCST. TRENDED FCST IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH WAS
NOT COMFORTABLE GOING QUITE AS COOL AS GUIDANCE INDICATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE RGN TNGT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH LGT WINDS...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME
FG AGAIN TNGT. THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FCST...SO STUCK WITH IT. THE
NAM/S LOW-LEVEL RH LOOKED TOO HIGH ON WED...SO TRENDED TOWARD
SUNNIER CONDITIONS. EDGED MINS TNGT DOWN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...THEN STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND FOR
WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PREVAILING AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG/
E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL CONT THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE CLOSED UPR LOW (FOR SUMMER) TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND FLATTEN THE UPR RDG IN THE PROCESS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WL TURN
THE FLOW CLOSER TO ZONAL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS TO BE TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AROUND FRI AND A CDFNT AROUND MON.

HI PRES IS FCST TO BE PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED NGT AND
WL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
NE WI. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WL SEND MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. IF ENUF DRY
AIR CAN ADVECT INTO THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE OF UPR 30S FOR TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS SFC HI WL
STRETCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THU...SO
ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONSIDERING WE ARE IN EARLY JULY. DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE
DAY...THE DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR
70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

MODELS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE MIDWEST
THU NGT...HOWEVER WITH THE SFC HI ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
DO NOT SEE HOW ANY PCPN CAN MAKE A PUSH IN OUR DIRECTION. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLGT CHC POP FROM CNTRL WI AND KEEP SKY CONDITIONS
EITHER MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. THE AIR MASS OVER WI TO HAVE
MODIFIED A BIT BY THU NGT...THUS TEMPS WL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL AS
WED NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR 50S
NORTH...TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. QUESTIONS THEN ARISE FOR FRI AS THE
MODELS ARE IN DISPUTE WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THIS TROF TO WEAKEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO PASS TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE STUBBORN SFC HI TO HANG AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FOR
ONE MORE DAY. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION MAY TRY TO PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
POP...BUT THE PCPN CHCS SEEM TO BE DWINDLING THE CLOSER TO FRI WE
GET. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE UPR
70S OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING FLATTENED BY THE UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN
CANADA. THIS WL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND BRING A DRY FCST FOR THE 4TH
OF JULY FESTIVITIES. MAX TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL WHICH TRANSLATES
TO THE LWR TO MID 70S LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80
DEGS SOUTH.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY WIND IS FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE CANADIAN UPR LOW (AND SFC LOW) REACH MANITOBA
AND A CDFNT TO STRETCH S-SW TOWARD THE CNTRL HI PLAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION MAY ATTEMPT TO THROW A SLGT
CHC POP INTO THE FCST DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DO
NOT SEE ANY TRIGGER (FRONTS...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...JET
STREAKS...ETC.) TO SET PCPN OFF. THUS...NE WI COULD VERY WELL HAVE
A COMPLETELY DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A DEG OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EXPECTED (AWAY
FROM THE LAKE).

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR OUR NEXT
BEST CHC OF SEEING SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AS THE CDFNT DRIVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THE FNT STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME (SUNDAY NGT OR MON)...SO WL CARRY MEDIUM CHC POPS FOR BOTH
PERIODS FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FROPA
OCCURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ADDED SOME IFR CIGS AND MVFR
CIGS IN RHI TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 301659
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

NWLY UPR FLOW WL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...BUT WITH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE FLOW. A FRESH SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN READINGS SHOULD
WARM BACK TO NR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE ANY
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA IN THE E END TDA...THE NEXT SIG CHC FOR PCPN
WL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WL PROBABLY COME DOWN TO
WHAT OCCURS WITH THAT EVENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN WERE
SLOW TO EXIT THE E THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS ALSO HAD A TENDENCY TO
BACKBUILD. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE REMAINING
FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WL NEED TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FAR E AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. FINAL POPS WL BE AN ISSUANCE
TIME DECISION. SOME FG WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING FM NW-SE...WL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT
WITHOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TDA/S HIGHS WERE
COOLER THAN PREV FCST. TRENDED FCST IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH WAS
NOT COMFORTABLE GOING QUITE AS COOL AS GUIDANCE INDICATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE RGN TNGT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH LGT WINDS...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME
FG AGAIN TNGT. THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FCST...SO STUCK WITH IT. THE
NAM/S LOW-LEVEL RH LOOKED TOO HIGH ON WED...SO TRENDED TOWARD
SUNNIER CONDITIONS. EDGED MINS TNGT DOWN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...THEN STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND FOR
WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PREVAILING AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG/
E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL CONT THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE CLOSED UPR LOW (FOR SUMMER) TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND FLATTEN THE UPR RDG IN THE PROCESS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WL TURN
THE FLOW CLOSER TO ZONAL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS TO BE TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AROUND FRI AND A CDFNT AROUND MON.

HI PRES IS FCST TO BE PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED NGT AND
WL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
NE WI. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WL SEND MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. IF ENUF DRY
AIR CAN ADVECT INTO THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE OF UPR 30S FOR TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS SFC HI WL
STRETCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THU...SO
ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONSIDERING WE ARE IN EARLY JULY. DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE
DAY...THE DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR
70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

MODELS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE MIDWEST
THU NGT...HOWEVER WITH THE SFC HI ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
DO NOT SEE HOW ANY PCPN CAN MAKE A PUSH IN OUR DIRECTION. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLGT CHC POP FROM CNTRL WI AND KEEP SKY CONDITIONS
EITHER MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. THE AIR MASS OVER WI TO HAVE
MODIFIED A BIT BY THU NGT...THUS TEMPS WL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL AS
WED NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR 50S
NORTH...TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. QUESTIONS THEN ARISE FOR FRI AS THE
MODELS ARE IN DISPUTE WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THIS TROF TO WEAKEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO PASS TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE STUBBORN SFC HI TO HANG AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FOR
ONE MORE DAY. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION MAY TRY TO PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
POP...BUT THE PCPN CHCS SEEM TO BE DWINDLING THE CLOSER TO FRI WE
GET. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE UPR
70S OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING FLATTENED BY THE UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN
CANADA. THIS WL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND BRING A DRY FCST FOR THE 4TH
OF JULY FESTIVITIES. MAX TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL WHICH TRANSLATES
TO THE LWR TO MID 70S LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80
DEGS SOUTH.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY WIND IS FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE CANADIAN UPR LOW (AND SFC LOW) REACH MANITOBA
AND A CDFNT TO STRETCH S-SW TOWARD THE CNTRL HI PLAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION MAY ATTEMPT TO THROW A SLGT
CHC POP INTO THE FCST DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DO
NOT SEE ANY TRIGGER (FRONTS...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...JET
STREAKS...ETC.) TO SET PCPN OFF. THUS...NE WI COULD VERY WELL HAVE
A COMPLETELY DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A DEG OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EXPECTED (AWAY
FROM THE LAKE).

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR OUR NEXT
BEST CHC OF SEEING SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AS THE CDFNT DRIVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THE FNT STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME (SUNDAY NGT OR MON)...SO WL CARRY MEDIUM CHC POPS FOR BOTH
PERIODS FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FROPA
OCCURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ADDED SOME IFR CIGS AND MVFR
CIGS IN RHI TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 300745
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
245 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

NWLY UPR FLOW WL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...BUT WITH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE FLOW. A FRESH SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN READINGS SHOULD
WARM BACK TO NR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE ANY
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA IN THE E END TDA...THE NEXT SIG CHC FOR PCPN
WL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WL PROBABLY COME DOWN TO
WHAT OCCURS WITH THAT EVENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN WERE
SLOW TO EXIT THE E THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS ALSO HAD A TENDENCY TO
BACKBUILD. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE REMAINING
FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WL NEED TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FAR E AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. FINAL POPS WL BE AN ISSUANCE
TIME DECISION. SOME FG WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING FM NW-SE...WL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT
WITHOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TDA/S HIGHS WERE
COOLER THAN PREV FCST. TRENDED FCST IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH WAS
NOT COMFORTABLE GOING QUITE AS COOL AS GUIDANCE INDICATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE RGN TNGT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH LGT WINDS...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME
FG AGAIN TNGT. THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FCST...SO STUCK WITH IT. THE
NAM/S LOW-LEVEL RH LOOKED TOO HIGH ON WED...SO TRENDED TOWARD
SUNNIER CONDITIONS. EDGED MINS TNGT DOWN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...THEN STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND FOR
WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PREVAILING AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG/
E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL CONT THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE CLOSED UPR LOW (FOR SUMMER) TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND FLATTEN THE UPR RDG IN THE PROCESS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WL TURN
THE FLOW CLOSER TO ZONAL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS TO BE TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AROUND FRI AND A CDFNT AROUND MON.

HI PRES IS FCST TO BE PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED NGT AND
WL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
NE WI. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WL SEND MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. IF ENUF DRY
AIR CAN ADVECT INTO THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE OF UPR 30S FOR TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS SFC HI WL
STRETCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THU...SO
ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONSIDERING WE ARE IN EARLY JULY. DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE
DAY...THE DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR
70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

MODELS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE MIDWEST
THU NGT...HOWEVER WITH THE SFC HI ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
DO NOT SEE HOW ANY PCPN CAN MAKE A PUSH IN OUR DIRECTION. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLGT CHC POP FROM CNTRL WI AND KEEP SKY CONDITIONS
EITHER MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. THE AIR MASS OVER WI TO HAVE
MODIFIED A BIT BY THU NGT...THUS TEMPS WL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL AS
WED NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR 50S
NORTH...TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. QUESTIONS THEN ARISE FOR FRI AS THE
MODELS ARE IN DISPUTE WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THIS TROF TO WEAKEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO PASS TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE STUBBORN SFC HI TO HANG AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FOR
ONE MORE DAY. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION MAY TRY TO PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
POP...BUT THE PCPN CHCS SEEM TO BE DWINDLING THE CLOSER TO FRI WE
GET. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE UPR
70S OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING FLATTENED BY THE UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN
CANADA. THIS WL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND BRING A DRY FCST FOR THE 4TH
OF JULY FESTIVITIES. MAX TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL WHICH TRANSLATES
TO THE LWR TO MID 70S LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80
DEGS SOUTH.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY WIND IS FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE CANADIAN UPR LOW (AND SFC LOW) REACH MANITOBA
AND A CDFNT TO STRETCH S-SW TOWARD THE CNTRL HI PLAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION MAY ATTEMPT TO THROW A SLGT
CHC POP INTO THE FCST DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DO
NOT SEE ANY TRIGGER (FRONTS...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...JET
STREAKS...ETC.) TO SET PCPN OFF. THUS...NE WI COULD VERY WELL HAVE
A COMPLETELY DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A DEG OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EXPECTED (AWAY
FROM THE LAKE).

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR OUR NEXT
BEST CHC OF SEEING SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AS THE CDFNT DRIVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THE FNT STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME (SUNDAY NGT OR MON)...SO WL CARRY MEDIUM CHC POPS FOR BOTH
PERIODS FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FROPA
OCCURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THERE WL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PATCHY
FOG EARLY. ANTICIPATE CIGS RISING INTO VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOWER DWPTS BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 300745
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
245 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

NWLY UPR FLOW WL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...BUT WITH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE FLOW. A FRESH SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN READINGS SHOULD
WARM BACK TO NR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE ANY
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA IN THE E END TDA...THE NEXT SIG CHC FOR PCPN
WL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WL PROBABLY COME DOWN TO
WHAT OCCURS WITH THAT EVENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN WERE
SLOW TO EXIT THE E THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS ALSO HAD A TENDENCY TO
BACKBUILD. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE REMAINING
FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WL NEED TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FAR E AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. FINAL POPS WL BE AN ISSUANCE
TIME DECISION. SOME FG WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING FM NW-SE...WL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT
WITHOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TDA/S HIGHS WERE
COOLER THAN PREV FCST. TRENDED FCST IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH WAS
NOT COMFORTABLE GOING QUITE AS COOL AS GUIDANCE INDICATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE RGN TNGT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH LGT WINDS...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME
FG AGAIN TNGT. THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FCST...SO STUCK WITH IT. THE
NAM/S LOW-LEVEL RH LOOKED TOO HIGH ON WED...SO TRENDED TOWARD
SUNNIER CONDITIONS. EDGED MINS TNGT DOWN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...THEN STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND FOR
WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PREVAILING AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG/
E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL CONT THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE CLOSED UPR LOW (FOR SUMMER) TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND FLATTEN THE UPR RDG IN THE PROCESS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WL TURN
THE FLOW CLOSER TO ZONAL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS TO BE TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AROUND FRI AND A CDFNT AROUND MON.

HI PRES IS FCST TO BE PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED NGT AND
WL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
NE WI. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WL SEND MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. IF ENUF DRY
AIR CAN ADVECT INTO THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE OF UPR 30S FOR TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS SFC HI WL
STRETCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THU...SO
ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONSIDERING WE ARE IN EARLY JULY. DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE
DAY...THE DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR
70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

MODELS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE MIDWEST
THU NGT...HOWEVER WITH THE SFC HI ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
DO NOT SEE HOW ANY PCPN CAN MAKE A PUSH IN OUR DIRECTION. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLGT CHC POP FROM CNTRL WI AND KEEP SKY CONDITIONS
EITHER MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. THE AIR MASS OVER WI TO HAVE
MODIFIED A BIT BY THU NGT...THUS TEMPS WL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL AS
WED NGT. INSTEAD...LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR 50S
NORTH...TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. QUESTIONS THEN ARISE FOR FRI AS THE
MODELS ARE IN DISPUTE WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THIS TROF TO WEAKEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO PASS TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE STUBBORN SFC HI TO HANG AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FOR
ONE MORE DAY. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION MAY TRY TO PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
POP...BUT THE PCPN CHCS SEEM TO BE DWINDLING THE CLOSER TO FRI WE
GET. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE UPR
70S OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING FLATTENED BY THE UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN
CANADA. THIS WL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND BRING A DRY FCST FOR THE 4TH
OF JULY FESTIVITIES. MAX TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL WHICH TRANSLATES
TO THE LWR TO MID 70S LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80
DEGS SOUTH.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY WIND IS FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE CANADIAN UPR LOW (AND SFC LOW) REACH MANITOBA
AND A CDFNT TO STRETCH S-SW TOWARD THE CNTRL HI PLAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION MAY ATTEMPT TO THROW A SLGT
CHC POP INTO THE FCST DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DO
NOT SEE ANY TRIGGER (FRONTS...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...JET
STREAKS...ETC.) TO SET PCPN OFF. THUS...NE WI COULD VERY WELL HAVE
A COMPLETELY DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A DEG OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EXPECTED (AWAY
FROM THE LAKE).

SUNDAY NGT INTO MON APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR OUR NEXT
BEST CHC OF SEEING SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AS THE CDFNT DRIVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THE FNT STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME (SUNDAY NGT OR MON)...SO WL CARRY MEDIUM CHC POPS FOR BOTH
PERIODS FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FROPA
OCCURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THERE WL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PATCHY
FOG EARLY. ANTICIPATE CIGS RISING INTO VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOWER DWPTS BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 300318
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1018 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHEAST WI
OVERNIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE THROUGH EASTERN WI.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WI TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY 12Z.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI...AND SHOULD
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR IN SOME PLACES.
INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER NC/C WI IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN
EASTERN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVG...AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 300318
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1018 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHEAST WI
OVERNIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE THROUGH EASTERN WI.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WI TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY 12Z.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI...AND SHOULD
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR IN SOME PLACES.
INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER NC/C WI IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN
EASTERN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVG...AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 292348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NE/EC WI THIS EVG. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN WI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FOG. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...BUT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED OVER NC/C WI IN THE AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 292348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NE/EC WI THIS EVG. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN WI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FOG. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...BUT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED OVER NC/C WI IN THE AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291910
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
210 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. .

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.




TDH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP UNTIL MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON TSTMS IN THE
ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS FOG FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC/LOWEST
VSBYS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS...SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP IN EASTERN TAF
SITES TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291910
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
210 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. .

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.




TDH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP UNTIL MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON TSTMS IN THE
ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS FOG FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC/LOWEST
VSBYS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS...SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP IN EASTERN TAF
SITES TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291910
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
210 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. .

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.




TDH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP UNTIL MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON TSTMS IN THE
ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS FOG FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC/LOWEST
VSBYS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS...SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP IN EASTERN TAF
SITES TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291910
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
210 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. .

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.




TDH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP UNTIL MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON TSTMS IN THE
ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS FOG FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC/LOWEST
VSBYS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS...SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP IN EASTERN TAF
SITES TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291701
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1201 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP UNTIL MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON TSTMS IN THE
ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS FOG FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC/LOWEST
VSBYS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS...SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP IN EASTERN TAF
SITES TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291701
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1201 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP UNTIL MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON TSTMS IN THE
ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS FOG FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC/LOWEST
VSBYS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS...SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP IN EASTERN TAF
SITES TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291701
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1201 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP UNTIL MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON TSTMS IN THE
ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS FOG FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC/LOWEST
VSBYS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS...SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP IN EASTERN TAF
SITES TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291701
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1201 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP UNTIL MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON TSTMS IN THE
ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS FOG FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC/LOWEST
VSBYS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS...SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP IN EASTERN TAF
SITES TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291102
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAS BROUGHT SOME FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING OVER NC/C WI...WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE FOG QUICKLY MIXES OUT.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SHOULD GENERATE NMRS SHOWERS
AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES
IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF
ON TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291102
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAS BROUGHT SOME FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING OVER NC/C WI...WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE FOG QUICKLY MIXES OUT.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SHOULD GENERATE NMRS SHOWERS
AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES
IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF
ON TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291102
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAS BROUGHT SOME FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING OVER NC/C WI...WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE FOG QUICKLY MIXES OUT.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SHOULD GENERATE NMRS SHOWERS
AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES
IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF
ON TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291102
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAS BROUGHT SOME FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING OVER NC/C WI...WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE FOG QUICKLY MIXES OUT.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SHOULD GENERATE NMRS SHOWERS
AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES
IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF
ON TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 290819
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROF AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NC/C WI OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
THE TAF SITES.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI...WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAVE OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE. THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD GENERATE
NMRS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290819
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROF AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NC/C WI OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
THE TAF SITES.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI...WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAVE OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE. THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD GENERATE
NMRS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 290819
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS CAUSED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT TO THE FAR WEST...WITH CLEARING BEING THE NECESSARY
COMPONENT FOR ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN
VISIBILITIES WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPS STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY
AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS RUN...WITH MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL A
MODEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER TROF WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS TIME OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
AND E-CNTRL CONUS UPR TROF WL REMAIN INTACT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI WL CONT TO SEND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
OUR DIRECTION AND TIMING THESE FEATURES HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT
BEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA SEWD INTO WRN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL
FLATTEN THE UPR RDG AND BRING MORE OF A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NRN TIER OF STATES. PCPN CHCS TO REMAIN SPOTTY WITH FRI LOOKING
LIKE THE NEXT CHC OF SEEING ORGANIZED SHWRS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. TEMPS
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE A LINGERING SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN WI TUE
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENUF
EAST TO KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF
HI PRES IS FCST TO DROP INTO NW WI BY 12Z WED AND PROVIDE ENUF DRY
AIR TO AT LEAST ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS MON AND TUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER PATCHY FOG OR A STRATUS DECK. HAVE ADDED THE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 40S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH.

THIS WEAK SFC HI TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TRACK MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MODEST N-NE
WINDS...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 DEG
RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY FOR WED NGT OR THU AS THE WEAK SFC HI
RESIDES OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SEWD JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. PREFER TO KEEP
THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT THERE WL BE SOME CLOSE CALLS OVER CNTRL WI
AS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY. TEMPS WL CONT
TO RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

THE MAIN FCST STICKING POINT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WL BE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. IF THE TROF ARRIVES THU NGT...
INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IF THE TROF ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WL BE STRONGER SO
A BETTER CHC OF SEEING SHWRS/TSTMS. DUE TO THE UNRESOLVED TIMING
PROBLEM...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY LOW POP THU NGT AND A BETTER CHC POP
ON FRI. THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE STARTED TO FLATTEN A BIT...
THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI
NGT AND MAY NEED TO LEAVE A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TOWARD NE WI ON SAT. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO GET MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (SW CNTRL WI - SE NEAR LAKE
MI) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS...AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS FAST FLOW WL BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A CDFNT TOWARD WI ON SUNDAY. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO
SEND THIS SYSTEM AT US ON SUNDAY. SLOWER ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO...THUS WL ONLY MENTION A SLGT CHC POP FOR NOW. SUNDAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE. IF THE PCPN DOES HOLD OFF...PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD SEE
MID 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROF AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NC/C WI OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
THE TAF SITES.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI...WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAVE OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE. THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD GENERATE
NMRS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290409
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SO
EXPECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS SYSTEM PULLS SOUTH OF AREA AND SUN
SETS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE...A BIT EAST OF SUNDAY SYSTEM. TIMING AND LOCATION SUCH
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED IN FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST MU-CAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HIGHER VALUES ASSUME SOME SUN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE MODEST AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WET BULB
ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUGGEST STORMS WITH HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE AND MODEL BLEND FOR TEMP FORECAST GIVEN
FAMILIAR PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES... VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ML.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROF AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NC/C WI OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
THE TAF SITES.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI...WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAVE OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE. THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD GENERATE
NMRS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290409
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SO
EXPECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS SYSTEM PULLS SOUTH OF AREA AND SUN
SETS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE...A BIT EAST OF SUNDAY SYSTEM. TIMING AND LOCATION SUCH
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED IN FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST MU-CAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HIGHER VALUES ASSUME SOME SUN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE MODEST AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WET BULB
ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUGGEST STORMS WITH HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE AND MODEL BLEND FOR TEMP FORECAST GIVEN
FAMILIAR PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES... VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ML.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROF AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NC/C WI OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
THE TAF SITES.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI...WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAVE OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE. THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD GENERATE
NMRS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 282325
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
625 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SO
EXPECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS SYSTEM PULLS SOUTH OF AREA AND SUN
SETS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE...A BIT EAST OF SUNDAY SYSTEM. TIMING AND LOCATION SUCH
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED IN FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST MU-CAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HIGHER VALUES ASSUME SOME SUN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE MODEST AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WET BULB
ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUGGEST STORMS WITH HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE AND MODEL BLEND FOR TEMP FORECAST GIVEN
FAMILIAR PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES... VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ML.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MOST OF THE PCPN IS OCCURRING JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN...WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVG. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY IN PARTS OF NC/C WI...SO A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS
COULD STILL POP UP THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI...WHERE
SOME RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR
CONDITIONS THERE. THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NC/C WI LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD GENERATE SCT/NMRS TSTMS IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS
AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 282325
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
625 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SO
EXPECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS SYSTEM PULLS SOUTH OF AREA AND SUN
SETS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE...A BIT EAST OF SUNDAY SYSTEM. TIMING AND LOCATION SUCH
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED IN FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST MU-CAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HIGHER VALUES ASSUME SOME SUN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE MODEST AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WET BULB
ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUGGEST STORMS WITH HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE AND MODEL BLEND FOR TEMP FORECAST GIVEN
FAMILIAR PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES... VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ML.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MOST OF THE PCPN IS OCCURRING JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN...WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVG. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY IN PARTS OF NC/C WI...SO A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS
COULD STILL POP UP THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI...WHERE
SOME RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR
CONDITIONS THERE. THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NC/C WI LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD GENERATE SCT/NMRS TSTMS IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS
AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




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