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000
FXUS63 KGRB 230812
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
312 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN IN MORE OF A LATE SUMMER RATHER THAN FALL MODE FOR
THE FIRST FULL DAY OF AUTUMN...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL N OF
THE FCST AREA. THEY WL REMAIN THERE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...
AS STG POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY BECOMES LOCKED-IN NR JAMES BAY.
THAT WL RESULT IN ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT/S ALSO A DRY
PATTERN. SIG MOISTURE WL REMAIN WELL S OF THE AREA AND FORCING WL
BE WEAK...SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHC FOR SIG PCPN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VERY QUIET AUTUMN WX. BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE PRODUCTS TYPICALLY
DO WELL IN SITNS SUCH AS THIS. LEANED TOWARD THOSE WITH THE
FCST...WITH THE TYPICAL MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR SLY FLOW UP THE
LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ACRS MAINLY C/N-C WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TNGT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A PRETTY STABLE PATTERN
SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CONTINENT. WILL SEE
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND ALSO
OVER GREENLAND...WHILE RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MEAN RIDGING WILL PROTECT THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTION. FOR
LATER PERIODS...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL SUFFICE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SHEARING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY THOUGH MODELS PREDICT SOME
SATURATION ABOVE 800MB OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SHOWER. THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS FURTHER ON
THURSDAY AS MID AND UPPER MOISTURE THINS OUT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST. THEN QUIET AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH
NIGHTS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE
PRESENT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY STEADY
OVER THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.  START
TO SEE SOME HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DRY AIR WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME.  NO RUSH TO ADD PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

OUTSIDE OF ANY PATCHES OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN LATE TNGT...EXCELLENT FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY 900 AM OR 1000 AM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI












000
FXUS63 KGRB 230338
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1038 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THUS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NECESSARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN WARMING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EVEN
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT. ADDED SOME SPLOTCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SIT TO OUR SOUTH...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 11 TO 12 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE A FAST ZONAL FLOW TO EXIST
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CANADA. BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE TO BE DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A WEAKENING SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. CAN THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATE ANY PCPN INTO NE WI? IF
NOT...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP AS A BROAD UPR RDG TO
ENCOMPASS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THIS TROF REMAINING WELL
TO OUR WEST THRU MON. TEMPS WL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SHRTWV TROF TO STRETCH FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY S-SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS TUE NGT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES
AND AN UPR RDG OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS INTO CNTRL WI LATE TNGT NGT...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE NGT TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
UNDER THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...WE MAY AGAIN SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS SOUTH.

THIS SHRTWV TROF EDGES EWD ON WED AND WL BE APPROACHING EXTREME
WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WITHIN THE TROF
ITSELF...MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHWRS JUST TO OUR WEST.
HAVE KEPT ANY POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 60S LAKESIDE...LWR 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

SOME DOUBT HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST FOR WED NGT AS SOME OF THE MDLS
HAVE CHANGED COURSE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHRTWV
TROF. INITIALLY...THE MDLS SHOWED THIS TROF BEING SHEARED WITH ITS
NRN PART LIFTING NE INTO CANADA AND BEING ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...THE SRN PART OF THIS TROF REVERSES COURSE
WITH A S-SW DRIFT. NOW...THE MAJORITY OF THE MDLS BRING THE SHRTWV
TROF INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THE
NEW SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE FCST AREA AND
PERHAPS BRING A SPOTTY SHWR OR TWO INTO CNTRL WI WED NGT. HAVE
ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR CNTRL WI...BUT KEPT ERN WI DRY. MIN TEMPS
TO BE UNIFORM WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. THE
REMAINS OF THE SHRTWV TROF DOES FINALLY WEAKEN ENUF BY THU TO KEEP
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY. A STRAY SHWR OR A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FEEL ANY PCPN WOULD
BE TOO LGT/ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE FCST. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WL BE TRICKY AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HAVE MAINTAINED
READINGS REACHING THE LWR 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MI.

A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MEAN FLOW TO BE UNDERWAY BY FRI AS A DEEP UPR
TROF HITS THE WEST COAST AND UPR RDG BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. SFC HI PRES TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG OVERHEAD SHOULD
BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO NE WI WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S WITH ENUF OF
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE
UPR 60S. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPR TROF
HEADED TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND THE BROAD UPR RDG TO ENCOMPASS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE LWR TO MID 70S (UPR 60S LAKESIDE) WITH A FEW OF
THE WARMER SITES MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGS.

FCST GETS MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO MON AS THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR RDG. SOME OF THE MDLS WRAP
THE TROF INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS...WHILE
OTHER MDLS WEAKEN THE TROF AND ROTATE IT INTO THE PLAINS. FOR
NOW...THIS DIFFERENCE WL NOT IMPACT NE WI WEATHER ON MON SO HAVE
GONE WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE FOUND OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED IN PARTS OF NC/C WI.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN NC/C WI. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED FARTHER EAST. WILL
HAVE VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR AT CWA/AUW...AND IFR/LIFR AT RHI...LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-
MORNING...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS (BASES 4-5K FT)...AND
LIGHT S-SW WINDS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230338
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1038 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THUS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NECESSARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN WARMING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EVEN
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT. ADDED SOME SPLOTCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SIT TO OUR SOUTH...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 11 TO 12 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE A FAST ZONAL FLOW TO EXIST
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CANADA. BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE TO BE DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A WEAKENING SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. CAN THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATE ANY PCPN INTO NE WI? IF
NOT...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP AS A BROAD UPR RDG TO
ENCOMPASS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THIS TROF REMAINING WELL
TO OUR WEST THRU MON. TEMPS WL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SHRTWV TROF TO STRETCH FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY S-SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS TUE NGT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES
AND AN UPR RDG OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS INTO CNTRL WI LATE TNGT NGT...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE NGT TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
UNDER THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...WE MAY AGAIN SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS SOUTH.

THIS SHRTWV TROF EDGES EWD ON WED AND WL BE APPROACHING EXTREME
WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WITHIN THE TROF
ITSELF...MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHWRS JUST TO OUR WEST.
HAVE KEPT ANY POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 60S LAKESIDE...LWR 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

SOME DOUBT HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST FOR WED NGT AS SOME OF THE MDLS
HAVE CHANGED COURSE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHRTWV
TROF. INITIALLY...THE MDLS SHOWED THIS TROF BEING SHEARED WITH ITS
NRN PART LIFTING NE INTO CANADA AND BEING ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...THE SRN PART OF THIS TROF REVERSES COURSE
WITH A S-SW DRIFT. NOW...THE MAJORITY OF THE MDLS BRING THE SHRTWV
TROF INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THE
NEW SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE FCST AREA AND
PERHAPS BRING A SPOTTY SHWR OR TWO INTO CNTRL WI WED NGT. HAVE
ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR CNTRL WI...BUT KEPT ERN WI DRY. MIN TEMPS
TO BE UNIFORM WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. THE
REMAINS OF THE SHRTWV TROF DOES FINALLY WEAKEN ENUF BY THU TO KEEP
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY. A STRAY SHWR OR A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FEEL ANY PCPN WOULD
BE TOO LGT/ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE FCST. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WL BE TRICKY AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HAVE MAINTAINED
READINGS REACHING THE LWR 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MI.

A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MEAN FLOW TO BE UNDERWAY BY FRI AS A DEEP UPR
TROF HITS THE WEST COAST AND UPR RDG BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. SFC HI PRES TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG OVERHEAD SHOULD
BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO NE WI WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S WITH ENUF OF
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE
UPR 60S. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPR TROF
HEADED TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND THE BROAD UPR RDG TO ENCOMPASS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE LWR TO MID 70S (UPR 60S LAKESIDE) WITH A FEW OF
THE WARMER SITES MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGS.

FCST GETS MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO MON AS THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR RDG. SOME OF THE MDLS WRAP
THE TROF INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS...WHILE
OTHER MDLS WEAKEN THE TROF AND ROTATE IT INTO THE PLAINS. FOR
NOW...THIS DIFFERENCE WL NOT IMPACT NE WI WEATHER ON MON SO HAVE
GONE WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE FOUND OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED IN PARTS OF NC/C WI.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN NC/C WI. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED FARTHER EAST. WILL
HAVE VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR AT CWA/AUW...AND IFR/LIFR AT RHI...LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-
MORNING...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS (BASES 4-5K FT)...AND
LIGHT S-SW WINDS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 222229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THUS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NECESSARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN WARMING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EVEN
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT. ADDED SOME SPLOTCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SIT TO OUR SOUTH...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 11 TO 12 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE A FAST ZONAL FLOW TO EXIST
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CANADA. BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE TO BE DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A WEAKENING SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. CAN THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATE ANY PCPN INTO NE WI? IF
NOT...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP AS A BROAD UPR RDG TO
ENCOMPASS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THIS TROF REMAINING WELL
TO OUR WEST THRU MON. TEMPS WL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SHRTWV TROF TO STRETCH FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY S-SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS TUE NGT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES
AND AN UPR RDG OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS INTO CNTRL WI LATE TNGT NGT...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE NGT TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
UNDER THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...WE MAY AGAIN SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS SOUTH.

THIS SHRTWV TROF EDGES EWD ON WED AND WL BE APPROACHING EXTREME
WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WITHIN THE TROF
ITSELF...MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHWRS JUST TO OUR WEST.
HAVE KEPT ANY POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 60S LAKESIDE...LWR 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

SOME DOUBT HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST FOR WED NGT AS SOME OF THE MDLS
HAVE CHANGED COURSE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHRTWV
TROF. INITIALLY...THE MDLS SHOWED THIS TROF BEING SHEARED WITH ITS
NRN PART LIFTING NE INTO CANADA AND BEING ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...THE SRN PART OF THIS TROF REVERSES COURSE
WITH A S-SW DRIFT. NOW...THE MAJORITY OF THE MDLS BRING THE SHRTWV
TROF INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THE
NEW SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE FCST AREA AND
PERHAPS BRING A SPOTTY SHWR OR TWO INTO CNTRL WI WED NGT. HAVE
ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR CNTRL WI...BUT KEPT ERN WI DRY. MIN TEMPS
TO BE UNIFORM WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. THE
REMAINS OF THE SHRTWV TROF DOES FINALLY WEAKEN ENUF BY THU TO KEEP
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY. A STRAY SHWR OR A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FEEL ANY PCPN WOULD
BE TOO LGT/ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE FCST. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WL BE TRICKY AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HAVE MAINTAINED
READINGS REACHING THE LWR 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MI.

A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MEAN FLOW TO BE UNDERWAY BY FRI AS A DEEP UPR
TROF HITS THE WEST COAST AND UPR RDG BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. SFC HI PRES TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG OVERHEAD SHOULD
BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO NE WI WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S WITH ENUF OF
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE
UPR 60S. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPR TROF
HEADED TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND THE BROAD UPR RDG TO ENCOMPASS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE LWR TO MID 70S (UPR 60S LAKESIDE) WITH A FEW OF
THE WARMER SITES MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGS.

FCST GETS MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO MON AS THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR RDG. SOME OF THE MDLS WRAP
THE TROF INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS...WHILE
OTHER MDLS WEAKEN THE TROF AND ROTATE IT INTO THE PLAINS. FOR
NOW...THIS DIFFERENCE WL NOT IMPACT NE WI WEATHER ON MON SO HAVE
GONE WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA...AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SET UP OVER THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY (NC/C WI) LATE TONIGHT...
CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER NC/C WI...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. WILL HAVE VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR AT
CWA/AUW...AND IFR/LIFR AT RHI...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS (BASES 4-5K FT)...AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 222229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THUS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NECESSARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN WARMING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EVEN
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT. ADDED SOME SPLOTCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SIT TO OUR SOUTH...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 11 TO 12 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE A FAST ZONAL FLOW TO EXIST
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CANADA. BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE TO BE DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A WEAKENING SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. CAN THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATE ANY PCPN INTO NE WI? IF
NOT...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP AS A BROAD UPR RDG TO
ENCOMPASS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THIS TROF REMAINING WELL
TO OUR WEST THRU MON. TEMPS WL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SHRTWV TROF TO STRETCH FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY S-SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS TUE NGT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES
AND AN UPR RDG OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS INTO CNTRL WI LATE TNGT NGT...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE NGT TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
UNDER THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...WE MAY AGAIN SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS SOUTH.

THIS SHRTWV TROF EDGES EWD ON WED AND WL BE APPROACHING EXTREME
WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WITHIN THE TROF
ITSELF...MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHWRS JUST TO OUR WEST.
HAVE KEPT ANY POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 60S LAKESIDE...LWR 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

SOME DOUBT HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST FOR WED NGT AS SOME OF THE MDLS
HAVE CHANGED COURSE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHRTWV
TROF. INITIALLY...THE MDLS SHOWED THIS TROF BEING SHEARED WITH ITS
NRN PART LIFTING NE INTO CANADA AND BEING ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...THE SRN PART OF THIS TROF REVERSES COURSE
WITH A S-SW DRIFT. NOW...THE MAJORITY OF THE MDLS BRING THE SHRTWV
TROF INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THE
NEW SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE FCST AREA AND
PERHAPS BRING A SPOTTY SHWR OR TWO INTO CNTRL WI WED NGT. HAVE
ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR CNTRL WI...BUT KEPT ERN WI DRY. MIN TEMPS
TO BE UNIFORM WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. THE
REMAINS OF THE SHRTWV TROF DOES FINALLY WEAKEN ENUF BY THU TO KEEP
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY. A STRAY SHWR OR A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FEEL ANY PCPN WOULD
BE TOO LGT/ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE FCST. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WL BE TRICKY AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HAVE MAINTAINED
READINGS REACHING THE LWR 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MI.

A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MEAN FLOW TO BE UNDERWAY BY FRI AS A DEEP UPR
TROF HITS THE WEST COAST AND UPR RDG BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. SFC HI PRES TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG OVERHEAD SHOULD
BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO NE WI WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S WITH ENUF OF
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE
UPR 60S. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPR TROF
HEADED TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND THE BROAD UPR RDG TO ENCOMPASS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE LWR TO MID 70S (UPR 60S LAKESIDE) WITH A FEW OF
THE WARMER SITES MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGS.

FCST GETS MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO MON AS THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR RDG. SOME OF THE MDLS WRAP
THE TROF INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS...WHILE
OTHER MDLS WEAKEN THE TROF AND ROTATE IT INTO THE PLAINS. FOR
NOW...THIS DIFFERENCE WL NOT IMPACT NE WI WEATHER ON MON SO HAVE
GONE WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA...AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SET UP OVER THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY (NC/C WI) LATE TONIGHT...
CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER NC/C WI...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. WILL HAVE VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR AT
CWA/AUW...AND IFR/LIFR AT RHI...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS (BASES 4-5K FT)...AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 221920
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
220 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THUS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NECESSARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN WARMING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EVEN
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT. ADDED SOME SPLOTCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SIT TO OUR SOUTH...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 11 TO 12 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE A FAST ZONAL FLOW TO EXIST
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CANADA. BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE TO BE DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A WEAKENING SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. CAN THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATE ANY PCPN INTO NE WI? IF
NOT...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP AS A BROAD UPR RDG TO
ENCOMPASS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THIS TROF REMAINING WELL
TO OUR WEST THRU MON. TEMPS WL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SHRTWV TROF TO STRETCH FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY S-SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS TUE NGT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES
AND AN UPR RDG OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS INTO CNTRL WI LATE TNGT NGT...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE NGT TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
UNDER THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...WE MAY AGAIN SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS SOUTH.

THIS SHRTWV TROF EDGES EWD ON WED AND WL BE APPROACHING EXTREME
WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WITHIN THE TROF
ITSELF...MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHWRS JUST TO OUR WEST.
HAVE KEPT ANY POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 60S LAKESIDE...LWR 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

SOME DOUBT HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST FOR WED NGT AS SOME OF THE MDLS
HAVE CHANGED COURSE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHRTWV
TROF. INITIALLY...THE MDLS SHOWED THIS TROF BEING SHEARED WITH ITS
NRN PART LIFTING NE INTO CANADA AND BEING ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...THE SRN PART OF THIS TROF REVERSES COURSE
WITH A S-SW DRIFT. NOW...THE MAJORITY OF THE MDLS BRING THE SHRTWV
TROF INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THE
NEW SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE FCST AREA AND
PERHAPS BRING A SPOTTY SHWR OR TWO INTO CNTRL WI WED NGT. HAVE
ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR CNTRL WI...BUT KEPT ERN WI DRY. MIN TEMPS
TO BE UNIFORM WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. THE
REMAINS OF THE SHRTWV TROF DOES FINALLY WEAKEN ENUF BY THU TO KEEP
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY. A STRAY SHWR OR A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FEEL ANY PCPN WOULD
BE TOO LGT/ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE FCST. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WL BE TRICKY AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HAVE MAINTAINED
READINGS REACHING THE LWR 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MI.

A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MEAN FLOW TO BE UNDERWAY BY FRI AS A DEEP UPR
TROF HITS THE WEST COAST AND UPR RDG BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. SFC HI PRES TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG OVERHEAD SHOULD
BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO NE WI WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S WITH ENUF OF
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE
UPR 60S. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPR TROF
HEADED TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND THE BROAD UPR RDG TO ENCOMPASS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE LWR TO MID 70S (UPR 60S LAKESIDE) WITH A FEW OF
THE WARMER SITES MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGS.

FCST GETS MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO MON AS THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR RDG. SOME OF THE MDLS WRAP
THE TROF INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS...WHILE
OTHER MDLS WEAKEN THE TROF AND ROTATE IT INTO THE PLAINS. FOR
NOW...THIS DIFFERENCE WL NOT IMPACT NE WI WEATHER ON MON SO HAVE
GONE WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 FT AND 4000 FT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CU AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 221920
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
220 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THUS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NECESSARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN WARMING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EVEN
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT. ADDED SOME SPLOTCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SIT TO OUR SOUTH...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 11 TO 12 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE A FAST ZONAL FLOW TO EXIST
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CANADA. BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE TO BE DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A WEAKENING SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. CAN THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATE ANY PCPN INTO NE WI? IF
NOT...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP AS A BROAD UPR RDG TO
ENCOMPASS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THIS TROF REMAINING WELL
TO OUR WEST THRU MON. TEMPS WL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SHRTWV TROF TO STRETCH FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY S-SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS TUE NGT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES
AND AN UPR RDG OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS INTO CNTRL WI LATE TNGT NGT...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE NGT TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
UNDER THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...WE MAY AGAIN SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS SOUTH.

THIS SHRTWV TROF EDGES EWD ON WED AND WL BE APPROACHING EXTREME
WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WITHIN THE TROF
ITSELF...MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHWRS JUST TO OUR WEST.
HAVE KEPT ANY POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 60S LAKESIDE...LWR 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

SOME DOUBT HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST FOR WED NGT AS SOME OF THE MDLS
HAVE CHANGED COURSE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHRTWV
TROF. INITIALLY...THE MDLS SHOWED THIS TROF BEING SHEARED WITH ITS
NRN PART LIFTING NE INTO CANADA AND BEING ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...THE SRN PART OF THIS TROF REVERSES COURSE
WITH A S-SW DRIFT. NOW...THE MAJORITY OF THE MDLS BRING THE SHRTWV
TROF INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THE
NEW SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE FCST AREA AND
PERHAPS BRING A SPOTTY SHWR OR TWO INTO CNTRL WI WED NGT. HAVE
ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR CNTRL WI...BUT KEPT ERN WI DRY. MIN TEMPS
TO BE UNIFORM WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. THE
REMAINS OF THE SHRTWV TROF DOES FINALLY WEAKEN ENUF BY THU TO KEEP
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY. A STRAY SHWR OR A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FEEL ANY PCPN WOULD
BE TOO LGT/ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE FCST. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WL BE TRICKY AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HAVE MAINTAINED
READINGS REACHING THE LWR 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MI.

A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MEAN FLOW TO BE UNDERWAY BY FRI AS A DEEP UPR
TROF HITS THE WEST COAST AND UPR RDG BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. SFC HI PRES TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG OVERHEAD SHOULD
BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO NE WI WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S WITH ENUF OF
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE
UPR 60S. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPR TROF
HEADED TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND THE BROAD UPR RDG TO ENCOMPASS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE LWR TO MID 70S (UPR 60S LAKESIDE) WITH A FEW OF
THE WARMER SITES MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGS.

FCST GETS MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO MON AS THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR RDG. SOME OF THE MDLS WRAP
THE TROF INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS...WHILE
OTHER MDLS WEAKEN THE TROF AND ROTATE IT INTO THE PLAINS. FOR
NOW...THIS DIFFERENCE WL NOT IMPACT NE WI WEATHER ON MON SO HAVE
GONE WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 FT AND 4000 FT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CU AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 221714
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1214 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM IOWA TO INDIANA AND OHIO
WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY
MINOR CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER TO INCLUDE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS
AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER MID-WEEK...FOG POTENTIAL...AND HOW WARM
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH PULLING
OUT OF THE EASTERN U.S....AS RIDGING SPREADS/BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAIN FEATURE WORTH WATCHING FOR OUR
AREA WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT HAVE WAFFLED A LITTLE ON
HOW FAR EAST ITS EFFECT WILL REACH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIP...JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY FORECAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES MAKE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MID-WEEK...TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. ITS INFLUENCE WILL AID IN KEEPING THE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LOOK TO BE THE LIGHTEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK
REMARKABLY STEADY BETWEEN 11C-14C THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIXING UP TO
850MB WOULD GET HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL ONLY TO AROUND 900-875MB. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH A LITTLE COOLER...AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE WARMER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 FT AND 4000 FT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CU AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 221714
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1214 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM IOWA TO INDIANA AND OHIO
WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY
MINOR CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER TO INCLUDE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS
AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER MID-WEEK...FOG POTENTIAL...AND HOW WARM
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH PULLING
OUT OF THE EASTERN U.S....AS RIDGING SPREADS/BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAIN FEATURE WORTH WATCHING FOR OUR
AREA WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT HAVE WAFFLED A LITTLE ON
HOW FAR EAST ITS EFFECT WILL REACH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIP...JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY FORECAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES MAKE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MID-WEEK...TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. ITS INFLUENCE WILL AID IN KEEPING THE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LOOK TO BE THE LIGHTEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK
REMARKABLY STEADY BETWEEN 11C-14C THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIXING UP TO
850MB WOULD GET HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL ONLY TO AROUND 900-875MB. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH A LITTLE COOLER...AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE WARMER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 FT AND 4000 FT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CU AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 221201
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
701 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM IOWA TO INDIANA AND OHIO
WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY
MINOR CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER TO INCLUDE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS
AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER MID-WEEK...FOG POTENTIAL...AND HOW WARM
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH PULLING
OUT OF THE EASTERN U.S....AS RIDGING SPREADS/BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAIN FEATURE WORTH WATCHING FOR OUR
AREA WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT HAVE WAFFLED A LITTLE ON
HOW FAR EAST ITS EFFECT WILL REACH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIP...JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY FORECAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES MAKE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MID-WEEK...TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. ITS INFLUENCE WILL AID IN KEEPING THE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LOOK TO BE THE LIGHTEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK
REMARKABLY STEADY BETWEEN 11C-14C THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIXING UP TO
850MB WOULD GET HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL ONLY TO AROUND 900-875MB. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH A LITTLE COOLER...AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE WARMER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 FT AND 4000 FT POSSIBLE
TODAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE CLEAR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 220852
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM IOWA TO INDIANA AND OHIO
WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY
MINOR CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER TO INCLUDE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS
AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER MID-WEEK...FOG POTENTIAL...AND HOW WARM
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH PULLING
OUT OF THE EASTERN U.S....AS RIDGING SPREADS/BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAIN FEATURE WORTH WATCHING FOR OUR
AREA WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT HAVE WAFFLED A LITTLE ON
HOW FAR EAST ITS EFFECT WILL REACH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIP...JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY FORECAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES MAKE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MID-WEEK...TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. ITS INFLUENCE WILL AID IN KEEPING THE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LOOK TO BE THE LIGHTEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK
REMARKABLY STEADY BETWEEN 11C-14C THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIXING UP TO
850MB WOULD GET HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL ONLY TO AROUND 900-875MB. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH A LITTLE COOLER...AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE WARMER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING...
WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OVER MAINLY NC WI. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...
WILL NEED TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG WITH THIS SET OF
TAFS. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
15-20 KTS...VSBYS WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE VARIABLE.

AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG REFORM OVER NC WI LATE MONDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 220852
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM IOWA TO INDIANA AND OHIO
WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY
MINOR CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER TO INCLUDE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS
AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER MID-WEEK...FOG POTENTIAL...AND HOW WARM
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH PULLING
OUT OF THE EASTERN U.S....AS RIDGING SPREADS/BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAIN FEATURE WORTH WATCHING FOR OUR
AREA WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT HAVE WAFFLED A LITTLE ON
HOW FAR EAST ITS EFFECT WILL REACH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIP...JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY FORECAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES MAKE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MID-WEEK...TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. ITS INFLUENCE WILL AID IN KEEPING THE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LOOK TO BE THE LIGHTEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK
REMARKABLY STEADY BETWEEN 11C-14C THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIXING UP TO
850MB WOULD GET HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL ONLY TO AROUND 900-875MB. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH A LITTLE COOLER...AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE WARMER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING...
WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OVER MAINLY NC WI. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...
WILL NEED TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG WITH THIS SET OF
TAFS. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
15-20 KTS...VSBYS WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE VARIABLE.

AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG REFORM OVER NC WI LATE MONDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 220434
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1134 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND
SUBSIDING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET THIS EVG...WITH
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN WI ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY AS IS ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...BUT
UPDATED THE WORDING FOR LOWER TEMPS AND HEIGHTENED THE WORDING
FOR A HARD FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING IN A FEW COUNTIES...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL
ONLY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS...NOT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND FROST. OTHERWISE...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DREARY AND WET START TO THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED
OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING AND CLOUDS SCATTERED
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE AND COOL NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH 60 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD GO VERY LIGHT OR
CALM. EASTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY MAY BE SPARED FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT THOUGH THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT GET AS WARM AS
ANTICIPATED...SO ALREADY STARTED OUT COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT N-NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. 12Z GUIDANCE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER...SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ONLY WORRY WILL BE AN AREA OF WAA ADVECTION AND A FEW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT IT SEEMS THIS FEATURE WILL NOT REACH
THE CWA UNTIL ALMOST 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT FROM WRN CONUS UPR RDG/ERN
CONUS UPR TROF TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG THIS
WEEK. THE ONLY SNAFU THAT COULD RUIN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST FOR NE
WI WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF A SHEARED UPR LOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPR RDG BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...TEMPS WL RESPOND AND BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS A
GOOD 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE.

HI PRES TO DRIFT EWD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHED NW INTO WI MON NGT. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI...BUT TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS
SUNDAY NGT DUE TO WEAK WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY THRU THE NGT. 8H TEMPS
TO RISE TO AROUND +10C (COMPARED TO +6C SUNDAY NGT)...THUS MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN AS THE SFC HI SLIDES FARTHER E-NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE...UPR HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BUILD
ACROSS WI...THUS KEEPING THE FCST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
65-70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE A SHRTWV TROF TO BE
SITUATED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED BY A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TUE NGT. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPR RDG LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS APPEAR PRETTY UNIFORM WITH
UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. THIS SHRTWV TROF IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME ON WED...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...CONT TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAN SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL WI WED AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHC
OF SEEING ANY PCPN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
60S N-CNTRL AND LAKESHORE...TO THE LWR 70S E-CNTRL WI.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF FALLING APART...JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF FORCING OR
LIFT TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A POP. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD
OF THE FCST DRY UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BIG STORY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A DEEP UPR
TROF INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR
MASS WL TAKE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI REACHING THE LWR TO MID
70S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING...
WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OVER MAINLY NC WI. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...
WILL NEED TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG WITH THIS SET OF
TAFS. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
15-20 KTS...VSBYS WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE VARIABLE.

AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG REFORM OVER NC WI LATE MONDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-
021-073.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 220434
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1134 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND
SUBSIDING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET THIS EVG...WITH
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN WI ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY AS IS ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...BUT
UPDATED THE WORDING FOR LOWER TEMPS AND HEIGHTENED THE WORDING
FOR A HARD FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING IN A FEW COUNTIES...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL
ONLY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS...NOT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND FROST. OTHERWISE...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DREARY AND WET START TO THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED
OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING AND CLOUDS SCATTERED
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE AND COOL NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH 60 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD GO VERY LIGHT OR
CALM. EASTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY MAY BE SPARED FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT THOUGH THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT GET AS WARM AS
ANTICIPATED...SO ALREADY STARTED OUT COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT N-NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. 12Z GUIDANCE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER...SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ONLY WORRY WILL BE AN AREA OF WAA ADVECTION AND A FEW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT IT SEEMS THIS FEATURE WILL NOT REACH
THE CWA UNTIL ALMOST 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT FROM WRN CONUS UPR RDG/ERN
CONUS UPR TROF TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG THIS
WEEK. THE ONLY SNAFU THAT COULD RUIN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST FOR NE
WI WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF A SHEARED UPR LOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPR RDG BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...TEMPS WL RESPOND AND BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS A
GOOD 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE.

HI PRES TO DRIFT EWD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHED NW INTO WI MON NGT. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI...BUT TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS
SUNDAY NGT DUE TO WEAK WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY THRU THE NGT. 8H TEMPS
TO RISE TO AROUND +10C (COMPARED TO +6C SUNDAY NGT)...THUS MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN AS THE SFC HI SLIDES FARTHER E-NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE...UPR HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BUILD
ACROSS WI...THUS KEEPING THE FCST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
65-70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE A SHRTWV TROF TO BE
SITUATED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED BY A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TUE NGT. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPR RDG LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS APPEAR PRETTY UNIFORM WITH
UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. THIS SHRTWV TROF IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME ON WED...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...CONT TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAN SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL WI WED AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHC
OF SEEING ANY PCPN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
60S N-CNTRL AND LAKESHORE...TO THE LWR 70S E-CNTRL WI.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF FALLING APART...JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF FORCING OR
LIFT TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A POP. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD
OF THE FCST DRY UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BIG STORY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A DEEP UPR
TROF INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR
MASS WL TAKE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI REACHING THE LWR TO MID
70S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING...
WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OVER MAINLY NC WI. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...
WILL NEED TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG WITH THIS SET OF
TAFS. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
15-20 KTS...VSBYS WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE VARIABLE.

AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG REFORM OVER NC WI LATE MONDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-
021-073.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 220231
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
931 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND
SUBSIDING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET THIS EVG...WITH
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN WI ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY AS IS ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...BUT
UPDATED THE WORDING FOR LOWER TEMPS AND HEIGHTENED THE WORDING
FOR A HARD FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING IN A FEW COUNTIES...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL
ONLY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS...NOT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND FROST. OTHERWISE...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DREARY AND WET START TO THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED
OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING AND CLOUDS SCATTERED
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE AND COOL NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH 60 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD GO VERY LIGHT OR
CALM. EASTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY MAY BE SPARED FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT THOUGH THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT GET AS WARM AS
ANTICIPATED...SO ALREADY STARTED OUT COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT N-NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. 12Z GUIDANCE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER...SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ONLY WORRY WILL BE AN AREA OF WAA ADVECTION AND A FEW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT IT SEEMS THIS FEATURE WILL NOT REACH
THE CWA UNTIL ALMOST 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT FROM WRN CONUS UPR RDG/ERN
CONUS UPR TROF TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG THIS
WEEK. THE ONLY SNAFU THAT COULD RUIN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST FOR NE
WI WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF A SHEARED UPR LOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPR RDG BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...TEMPS WL RESPOND AND BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS A
GOOD 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE.

HI PRES TO DRIFT EWD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHED NW INTO WI MON NGT. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI...BUT TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS
SUNDAY NGT DUE TO WEAK WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY THRU THE NGT. 8H TEMPS
TO RISE TO AROUND +10C (COMPARED TO +6C SUNDAY NGT)...THUS MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN AS THE SFC HI SLIDES FARTHER E-NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE...UPR HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BUILD
ACROSS WI...THUS KEEPING THE FCST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
65-70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE A SHRTWV TROF TO BE
SITUATED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED BY A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TUE NGT. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPR RDG LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS APPEAR PRETTY UNIFORM WITH
UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. THIS SHRTWV TROF IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME ON WED...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...CONT TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAN SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL WI WED AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHC
OF SEEING ANY PCPN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
60S N-CNTRL AND LAKESHORE...TO THE LWR 70S E-CNTRL WI.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF FALLING APART...JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF FORCING OR
LIFT TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A POP. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD
OF THE FCST DRY UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BIG STORY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A DEEP UPR
TROF INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR
MASS WL TAKE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI REACHING THE LWR TO MID
70S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS WERE SUBSIDING OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS
(BASES 4000-5000 FT) COVERED PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN MN...AND WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WI.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVG...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING IN NC WI LATE TONIGHT.
WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MOIST SOIL FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAIN...
PATCHY FOG IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE
THE FOG WILL BE...AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...THE
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER IA...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS. HAVE KEPT FOG IN THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAF
SITES...BUT BROUGHT VSBYS UP SLIGHTLY FOR NOW.

AFTER PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES EARLY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 220231
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
931 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND
SUBSIDING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET THIS EVG...WITH
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN WI ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY AS IS ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...BUT
UPDATED THE WORDING FOR LOWER TEMPS AND HEIGHTENED THE WORDING
FOR A HARD FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING IN A FEW COUNTIES...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL
ONLY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS...NOT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND FROST. OTHERWISE...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DREARY AND WET START TO THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED
OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING AND CLOUDS SCATTERED
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE AND COOL NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH 60 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD GO VERY LIGHT OR
CALM. EASTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY MAY BE SPARED FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT THOUGH THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT GET AS WARM AS
ANTICIPATED...SO ALREADY STARTED OUT COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT N-NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. 12Z GUIDANCE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER...SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ONLY WORRY WILL BE AN AREA OF WAA ADVECTION AND A FEW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT IT SEEMS THIS FEATURE WILL NOT REACH
THE CWA UNTIL ALMOST 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT FROM WRN CONUS UPR RDG/ERN
CONUS UPR TROF TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG THIS
WEEK. THE ONLY SNAFU THAT COULD RUIN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST FOR NE
WI WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF A SHEARED UPR LOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPR RDG BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...TEMPS WL RESPOND AND BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS A
GOOD 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE.

HI PRES TO DRIFT EWD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHED NW INTO WI MON NGT. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI...BUT TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS
SUNDAY NGT DUE TO WEAK WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY THRU THE NGT. 8H TEMPS
TO RISE TO AROUND +10C (COMPARED TO +6C SUNDAY NGT)...THUS MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN AS THE SFC HI SLIDES FARTHER E-NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE...UPR HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BUILD
ACROSS WI...THUS KEEPING THE FCST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
65-70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE A SHRTWV TROF TO BE
SITUATED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED BY A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TUE NGT. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPR RDG LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS APPEAR PRETTY UNIFORM WITH
UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. THIS SHRTWV TROF IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME ON WED...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...CONT TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAN SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL WI WED AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHC
OF SEEING ANY PCPN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
60S N-CNTRL AND LAKESHORE...TO THE LWR 70S E-CNTRL WI.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF FALLING APART...JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF FORCING OR
LIFT TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A POP. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD
OF THE FCST DRY UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BIG STORY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A DEEP UPR
TROF INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR
MASS WL TAKE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI REACHING THE LWR TO MID
70S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS WERE SUBSIDING OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS
(BASES 4000-5000 FT) COVERED PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN MN...AND WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WI.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVG...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING IN NC WI LATE TONIGHT.
WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MOIST SOIL FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAIN...
PATCHY FOG IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE
THE FOG WILL BE...AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...THE
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER IA...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS. HAVE KEPT FOG IN THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAF
SITES...BUT BROUGHT VSBYS UP SLIGHTLY FOR NOW.

AFTER PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES EARLY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 212348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND FROST. OTHERWISE...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DREARY AND WET START TO THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED
OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING AND CLOUDS SCATTERED
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE AND COOL NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH 60 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD GO VERY LIGHT OR
CALM. EASTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY MAY BE SPARED FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT THOUGH THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT GET AS WARM AS
ANTICIPATED...SO ALREADY STARTED OUT COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT N-NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. 12Z GUIDANCE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER...SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ONLY WORRY WILL BE AN AREA OF WAA ADVECTION AND A FEW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT IT SEEMS THIS FEATURE WILL NOT REACH
THE CWA UNTIL ALMOST 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT FROM WRN CONUS UPR RDG/ERN
CONUS UPR TROF TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG THIS
WEEK. THE ONLY SNAFU THAT COULD RUIN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST FOR NE
WI WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF A SHEARED UPR LOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPR RDG BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...TEMPS WL RESPOND AND BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS A
GOOD 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE.

HI PRES TO DRIFT EWD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHED NW INTO WI MON NGT. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI...BUT TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS
SUNDAY NGT DUE TO WEAK WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY THRU THE NGT. 8H TEMPS
TO RISE TO AROUND +10C (COMPARED TO +6C SUNDAY NGT)...THUS MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN AS THE SFC HI SLIDES FARTHER E-NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE...UPR HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BUILD
ACROSS WI...THUS KEEPING THE FCST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
65-70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE A SHRTWV TROF TO BE
SITUATED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED BY A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TUE NGT. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPR RDG LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS APPEAR PRETTY UNIFORM WITH
UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. THIS SHRTWV TROF IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME ON WED...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...CONT TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAN SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL WI WED AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHC
OF SEEING ANY PCPN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
60S N-CNTRL AND LAKESHORE...TO THE LWR 70S E-CNTRL WI.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF FALLING APART...JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF FORCING OR
LIFT TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A POP. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD
OF THE FCST DRY UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BIG STORY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A DEEP UPR
TROF INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR
MASS WL TAKE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI REACHING THE LWR TO MID
70S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS WERE SUBSIDING OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS
(BASES 4000-5000 FT) COVERED PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN MN...AND WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WI.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVG...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING IN NC WI LATE TONIGHT.
WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MOIST SOIL FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAIN...
PATCHY FOG IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE
THE FOG WILL BE...AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...THE
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER IA...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS. HAVE KEPT FOG IN THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAF
SITES...BUT BROUGHT VSBYS UP SLIGHTLY FOR NOW.

AFTER PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES EARLY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 212348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND FROST. OTHERWISE...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DREARY AND WET START TO THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED
OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING AND CLOUDS SCATTERED
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE AND COOL NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH 60 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD GO VERY LIGHT OR
CALM. EASTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY MAY BE SPARED FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT THOUGH THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT GET AS WARM AS
ANTICIPATED...SO ALREADY STARTED OUT COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT N-NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. 12Z GUIDANCE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER...SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ONLY WORRY WILL BE AN AREA OF WAA ADVECTION AND A FEW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT IT SEEMS THIS FEATURE WILL NOT REACH
THE CWA UNTIL ALMOST 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT FROM WRN CONUS UPR RDG/ERN
CONUS UPR TROF TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG THIS
WEEK. THE ONLY SNAFU THAT COULD RUIN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST FOR NE
WI WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF A SHEARED UPR LOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPR RDG BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...TEMPS WL RESPOND AND BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS A
GOOD 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE.

HI PRES TO DRIFT EWD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHED NW INTO WI MON NGT. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI...BUT TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS
SUNDAY NGT DUE TO WEAK WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY THRU THE NGT. 8H TEMPS
TO RISE TO AROUND +10C (COMPARED TO +6C SUNDAY NGT)...THUS MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN AS THE SFC HI SLIDES FARTHER E-NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE...UPR HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BUILD
ACROSS WI...THUS KEEPING THE FCST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
65-70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE A SHRTWV TROF TO BE
SITUATED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED BY A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TUE NGT. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPR RDG LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS APPEAR PRETTY UNIFORM WITH
UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. THIS SHRTWV TROF IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME ON WED...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...CONT TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAN SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL WI WED AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHC
OF SEEING ANY PCPN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
60S N-CNTRL AND LAKESHORE...TO THE LWR 70S E-CNTRL WI.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF FALLING APART...JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF FORCING OR
LIFT TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A POP. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD
OF THE FCST DRY UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BIG STORY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A DEEP UPR
TROF INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR
MASS WL TAKE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI REACHING THE LWR TO MID
70S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS WERE SUBSIDING OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS
(BASES 4000-5000 FT) COVERED PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN MN...AND WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WI.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVG...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING IN NC WI LATE TONIGHT.
WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MOIST SOIL FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAIN...
PATCHY FOG IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE
THE FOG WILL BE...AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...THE
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER IA...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS. HAVE KEPT FOG IN THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAF
SITES...BUT BROUGHT VSBYS UP SLIGHTLY FOR NOW.

AFTER PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES EARLY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211928
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND FROST. OTHERWISE...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DREARY AND WET START TO THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED
OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING AND CLOUDS SCATTERED
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE AND COOL NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH 60 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD GO VERY LIGHT OR
CALM. EASTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY MAY BE SPARED FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT THOUGH THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT GET AS WARM AS
ANTICIPATED...SO ALREADY STARTED OUT COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT N-NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. 12Z GUIDANCE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER...SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ONLY WORRY WILL BE AN AREA OF WAA ADVECTION AND A FEW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT IT SEEMS THIS FEATURE WILL NOT REACH
THE CWA UNTIL ALMOST 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT FROM WRN CONUS UPR RDG/ERN
CONUS UPR TROF TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG THIS
WEEK. THE ONLY SNAFU THAT COULD RUIN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST FOR NE
WI WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF A SHEARED UPR LOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPR RDG BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...TEMPS WL RESPOND AND BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS A
GOOD 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE.

HI PRES TO DRIFT EWD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHED NW INTO WI MON NGT. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI...BUT TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS
SUNDAY NGT DUE TO WEAK WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY THRU THE NGT. 8H TEMPS
TO RISE TO AROUND +10C (COMPARED TO +6C SUNDAY NGT)...THUS MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN AS THE SFC HI SLIDES FARTHER E-NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE...UPR HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BUILD
ACROSS WI...THUS KEEPING THE FCST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
65-70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE A SHRTWV TROF TO BE
SITUATED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED BY A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TUE NGT. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPR RDG LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS APPEAR PRETTY UNIFORM WITH
UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. THIS SHRTWV TROF IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME ON WED...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...CONT TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAN SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL WI WED AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHC
OF SEEING ANY PCPN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
60S N-CNTRL AND LAKESHORE...TO THE LWR 70S E-CNTRL WI.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF FALLING APART...JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF FORCING OR
LIFT TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A POP. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD
OF THE FCST DRY UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BIG STORY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A DEEP UPR
TROF INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR
MASS WL TAKE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI REACHING THE LWR TO MID
70S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. AFTER FOG DISSIPATES EARLY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN VFR SCATTERED CU CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH A WESTERLY WIND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211928
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND FROST. OTHERWISE...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DREARY AND WET START TO THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED
OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING AND CLOUDS SCATTERED
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE AND COOL NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH 60 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD GO VERY LIGHT OR
CALM. EASTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY MAY BE SPARED FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT THOUGH THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT GET AS WARM AS
ANTICIPATED...SO ALREADY STARTED OUT COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT N-NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. 12Z GUIDANCE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER...SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ONLY WORRY WILL BE AN AREA OF WAA ADVECTION AND A FEW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT IT SEEMS THIS FEATURE WILL NOT REACH
THE CWA UNTIL ALMOST 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT FROM WRN CONUS UPR RDG/ERN
CONUS UPR TROF TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG THIS
WEEK. THE ONLY SNAFU THAT COULD RUIN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST FOR NE
WI WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF A SHEARED UPR LOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPR RDG BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...TEMPS WL RESPOND AND BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS A
GOOD 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE.

HI PRES TO DRIFT EWD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHED NW INTO WI MON NGT. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI...BUT TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS
SUNDAY NGT DUE TO WEAK WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY THRU THE NGT. 8H TEMPS
TO RISE TO AROUND +10C (COMPARED TO +6C SUNDAY NGT)...THUS MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN AS THE SFC HI SLIDES FARTHER E-NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE...UPR HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BUILD
ACROSS WI...THUS KEEPING THE FCST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
65-70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE A SHRTWV TROF TO BE
SITUATED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED BY A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TUE NGT. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPR RDG LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS APPEAR PRETTY UNIFORM WITH
UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. THIS SHRTWV TROF IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME ON WED...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...CONT TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAN SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL WI WED AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHC
OF SEEING ANY PCPN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
60S N-CNTRL AND LAKESHORE...TO THE LWR 70S E-CNTRL WI.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF FALLING APART...JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF FORCING OR
LIFT TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A POP. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD
OF THE FCST DRY UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BIG STORY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A DEEP UPR
TROF INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR
MASS WL TAKE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI REACHING THE LWR TO MID
70S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. AFTER FOG DISSIPATES EARLY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN VFR SCATTERED CU CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH A WESTERLY WIND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211657
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND THE SHOWERS
WILL END. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH AREAS OF FOG
ELSEWHERE. NICE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WEST
CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK TO A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...MAINLY A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL BRING THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

ONLY ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND UPPER
RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SOME MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN/RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.
CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS PATCHY FOG...AND SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE
IT. TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH...850MB CLIMB TO AROUND 10C VS. 5C
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...TO HOLD OFF ANY FROST MENTION OVER THE NORTH.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE
DRY FORECAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WHAT WAS LEFT OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...EJECTS OUT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID-
WEEK...THEN WEAKENS AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW FAR EAST THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ABLE TO PUNCH INTO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WESTERN WI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S (NORTH) AND 70S (ELSEWHERE) ARE EXPECTED...WITH A
FEW 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID-
TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. AFTER FOG DISSIPATES EARLY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN VFR SCATTERED CU CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH A WESTERLY WIND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211657
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND THE SHOWERS
WILL END. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH AREAS OF FOG
ELSEWHERE. NICE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WEST
CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK TO A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...MAINLY A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL BRING THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

ONLY ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND UPPER
RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SOME MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN/RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.
CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS PATCHY FOG...AND SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE
IT. TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH...850MB CLIMB TO AROUND 10C VS. 5C
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...TO HOLD OFF ANY FROST MENTION OVER THE NORTH.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE
DRY FORECAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WHAT WAS LEFT OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...EJECTS OUT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID-
WEEK...THEN WEAKENS AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW FAR EAST THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ABLE TO PUNCH INTO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WESTERN WI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S (NORTH) AND 70S (ELSEWHERE) ARE EXPECTED...WITH A
FEW 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID-
TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. AFTER FOG DISSIPATES EARLY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN VFR SCATTERED CU CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH A WESTERLY WIND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211115
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
615 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND THE SHOWERS
WILL END. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH AREAS OF FOG
ELSEWHERE. NICE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WEST
CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK TO A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...MAINLY A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL BRING THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

ONLY ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND UPPER
RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SOME MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN/RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.
CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS PATCHY FOG...AND SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE
IT. TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH...850MB CLIMB TO AROUND 10C VS. 5C
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...TO HOLD OFF ANY FROST MENTION OVER THE NORTH.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE
DRY FORECAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WHAT WAS LEFT OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...EJECTS OUT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID-
WEEK...THEN WEAKENS AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW FAR EAST THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ABLE TO PUNCH INTO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WESTERN WI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S (NORTH) AND 70S (ELSEWHERE) ARE EXPECTED...WITH A
FEW 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID-
TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND VARIABLE MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FROST IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE AREAS OF GROUND
FOG AS WELL. VFR CLEAR EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211115
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
615 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND THE SHOWERS
WILL END. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH AREAS OF FOG
ELSEWHERE. NICE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WEST
CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK TO A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...MAINLY A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL BRING THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

ONLY ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND UPPER
RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SOME MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN/RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.
CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS PATCHY FOG...AND SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE
IT. TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH...850MB CLIMB TO AROUND 10C VS. 5C
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...TO HOLD OFF ANY FROST MENTION OVER THE NORTH.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE
DRY FORECAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WHAT WAS LEFT OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...EJECTS OUT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID-
WEEK...THEN WEAKENS AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW FAR EAST THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ABLE TO PUNCH INTO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WESTERN WI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S (NORTH) AND 70S (ELSEWHERE) ARE EXPECTED...WITH A
FEW 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID-
TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND VARIABLE MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FROST IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE AREAS OF GROUND
FOG AS WELL. VFR CLEAR EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210829
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND THE SHOWERS
WILL END. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH AREAS OF FOG
ELSEWHERE. NICE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WEST
CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK TO A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...MAINLY A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL BRING THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

ONLY ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND UPPER
RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SOME MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN/RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.
CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS PATCHY FOG...AND SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE
IT. TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH...850MB CLIMB TO AROUND 10C VS. 5C
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...TO HOLD OFF ANY FROST MENTION OVER THE NORTH.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE
DRY FORECAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WHAT WAS LEFT OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...EJECTS OUT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID-
WEEK...THEN WEAKENS AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW FAR EAST THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ABLE TO PUNCH INTO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WESTERN WI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S (NORTH) AND 70S (ELSEWHERE) ARE EXPECTED...WITH A
FEW 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID-
TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 3O TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSTMS AT MTW FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE RAIN BAND. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210829
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND THE SHOWERS
WILL END. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH AREAS OF FOG
ELSEWHERE. NICE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WEST
CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK TO A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...MAINLY A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL BRING THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

ONLY ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND UPPER
RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SOME MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN/RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.
CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS PATCHY FOG...AND SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE
IT. TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH...850MB CLIMB TO AROUND 10C VS. 5C
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...TO HOLD OFF ANY FROST MENTION OVER THE NORTH.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE
DRY FORECAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WHAT WAS LEFT OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...EJECTS OUT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID-
WEEK...THEN WEAKENS AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW FAR EAST THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ABLE TO PUNCH INTO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WESTERN WI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S (NORTH) AND 70S (ELSEWHERE) ARE EXPECTED...WITH A
FEW 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID-
TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 3O TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSTMS AT MTW FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE RAIN BAND. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

RATHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS VERY STRONG UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PLUNGE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS
ALSO TRAVERSING EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS HELPING TO
GENERATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS MANITOWOC COUNTY NEAR
THE FRONT BUT THESE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IMPULSE HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCED CU/SC ALONG THE WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN BORDER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN REACHING 30 MPH AT IMT AT TIMES.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE A
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...ORGANIZED AND RATHER STRONG
MESOSCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A NW-
SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
NEAR THE LFQ OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX. LATEST RADAR
DATA INDICATES WELL-ORGANIZED QUASILINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE LFQ OF THE JET AND HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE RACES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THIS QUASILINEAR MCS
APPEARS TO BE PROPAGATING FASTER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01 OR 02Z. IN
ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING AREA OF BLYR
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ALONG THE AFFORMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTATED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WE APPROACH THE LATE
EVENING...THE QUASILINEAR MCS AND SCATTERED UPSTREAM SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. FEEL
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKENING THE
CONVECTION AFTER 09Z AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 12-14Z SUNDAY...LINGERED LOW POPS WELL INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO HELP FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY
LATE AFTERNOON..DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT. TEMPS
WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EXTENDED MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE WITH THE
MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM A ROCKIES UPR RDG/E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FCST ISSUES HAVE TO DEAL WITH SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MID-WEEK HEADED TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD SEND NE WI FROM
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS/ABOVE NORMAL PCPN...TO A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE SE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY SUNDAY NGT. THIS PLACES NE WI
UNDER THE NRN FRINGES OF THIS SFC HI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A LIGHT N-NW WIND. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS TNGT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BR FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTH LATE SUNDAY NGT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE AND MAY NOT BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
THE MID 30S OVER NRN WI. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST WORDING
GENERALLY NORTH OF A MERRILL-ANTIGO-WAUSAUKEE LINE.

THE SFC HI DRIFTS EAST INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON MON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEST WINDS UNDER 10
MPH AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S LAKESIDE (DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE) TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS THE SFC HI HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST MON NGT...MODEST WAA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WI...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNGT. 8H TEMPS ARE
ABOUT 4C DEGS WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY NGT...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
SFC TEMPS TO QUITE AS COOL. THE W-SW WINDS ALOFT WL ALSO BEGIN TO
BRING A TOUCH OF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER BOUT OF PATCHY LATE NGT FOG OVER THE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS
SOUTH. RETURN FLOW IN FULL EFFECT BY TUE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH (EXCEPT S-SE NEAR LAKE MI AS THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES INLAND)
AND WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR PUSHES INTO WI. THE FCST AREA TO RESIDE
ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEPARTED SFC HI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
LAKESIDE...UPR 60S/LWR 70S ELSEWHERE.

HEADED INTO MID-WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS TO BE ON THE MOVEMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF (REMAINS OF A CA CLOSED UPR LOW) ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. TUE NGT APPEARS TO REMAIN QUIET UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT S-SE WINDS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST ON WED IN A WEAKENING STATE BETWEEN UPR RDGS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND ERN CONUS. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER CNTRL
WI WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHWRS IMPINGING ON N-CNTRL WI
LATE IN THE DAY. ERN WI SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LWR 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER N-CNTRL
AND LAKESHORE.

AN INTERESTING PHENOMENA THEN TAKES PLACE WED NGT INTO THU AS THE
ERN CONUS UPR RDG RETROGRADES WWD AND STARTS TO PINCH OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF STILL SITUATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. NRN
SECTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES...
WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE TROF DRIFTS SW AND TRIES TO BECOME A WEAK
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF THIS SCENARIO IS CORRECT...
CNTRL WI MAY HAVE A SMALL SHWR CHC WED NGT INTO THU MORNING...BUT
ERN WI MAY END UP NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN.

THE END OF THE WEEK WL FEATURE A DEEP UPR TROF HITTING THE WEST
COAST AND A LARGE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
SET-UP WOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
IN FACT...CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS ON SAT REACHING 80 DEGS OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 3O TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSTMS AT MTW FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE RAIN BAND. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

RATHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS VERY STRONG UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PLUNGE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS
ALSO TRAVERSING EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS HELPING TO
GENERATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS MANITOWOC COUNTY NEAR
THE FRONT BUT THESE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IMPULSE HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCED CU/SC ALONG THE WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN BORDER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN REACHING 30 MPH AT IMT AT TIMES.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE A
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...ORGANIZED AND RATHER STRONG
MESOSCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A NW-
SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
NEAR THE LFQ OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX. LATEST RADAR
DATA INDICATES WELL-ORGANIZED QUASILINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE LFQ OF THE JET AND HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE RACES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THIS QUASILINEAR MCS
APPEARS TO BE PROPAGATING FASTER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01 OR 02Z. IN
ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING AREA OF BLYR
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ALONG THE AFFORMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTATED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WE APPROACH THE LATE
EVENING...THE QUASILINEAR MCS AND SCATTERED UPSTREAM SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. FEEL
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKENING THE
CONVECTION AFTER 09Z AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 12-14Z SUNDAY...LINGERED LOW POPS WELL INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO HELP FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY
LATE AFTERNOON..DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT. TEMPS
WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EXTENDED MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE WITH THE
MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM A ROCKIES UPR RDG/E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FCST ISSUES HAVE TO DEAL WITH SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MID-WEEK HEADED TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD SEND NE WI FROM
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS/ABOVE NORMAL PCPN...TO A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE SE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY SUNDAY NGT. THIS PLACES NE WI
UNDER THE NRN FRINGES OF THIS SFC HI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A LIGHT N-NW WIND. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS TNGT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BR FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTH LATE SUNDAY NGT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE AND MAY NOT BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
THE MID 30S OVER NRN WI. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST WORDING
GENERALLY NORTH OF A MERRILL-ANTIGO-WAUSAUKEE LINE.

THE SFC HI DRIFTS EAST INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON MON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEST WINDS UNDER 10
MPH AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S LAKESIDE (DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE) TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS THE SFC HI HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST MON NGT...MODEST WAA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WI...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNGT. 8H TEMPS ARE
ABOUT 4C DEGS WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY NGT...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
SFC TEMPS TO QUITE AS COOL. THE W-SW WINDS ALOFT WL ALSO BEGIN TO
BRING A TOUCH OF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER BOUT OF PATCHY LATE NGT FOG OVER THE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS
SOUTH. RETURN FLOW IN FULL EFFECT BY TUE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH (EXCEPT S-SE NEAR LAKE MI AS THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES INLAND)
AND WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR PUSHES INTO WI. THE FCST AREA TO RESIDE
ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEPARTED SFC HI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
LAKESIDE...UPR 60S/LWR 70S ELSEWHERE.

HEADED INTO MID-WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS TO BE ON THE MOVEMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF (REMAINS OF A CA CLOSED UPR LOW) ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. TUE NGT APPEARS TO REMAIN QUIET UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT S-SE WINDS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST ON WED IN A WEAKENING STATE BETWEEN UPR RDGS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND ERN CONUS. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER CNTRL
WI WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHWRS IMPINGING ON N-CNTRL WI
LATE IN THE DAY. ERN WI SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LWR 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER N-CNTRL
AND LAKESHORE.

AN INTERESTING PHENOMENA THEN TAKES PLACE WED NGT INTO THU AS THE
ERN CONUS UPR RDG RETROGRADES WWD AND STARTS TO PINCH OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF STILL SITUATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. NRN
SECTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES...
WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE TROF DRIFTS SW AND TRIES TO BECOME A WEAK
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF THIS SCENARIO IS CORRECT...
CNTRL WI MAY HAVE A SMALL SHWR CHC WED NGT INTO THU MORNING...BUT
ERN WI MAY END UP NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN.

THE END OF THE WEEK WL FEATURE A DEEP UPR TROF HITTING THE WEST
COAST AND A LARGE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
SET-UP WOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
IN FACT...CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS ON SAT REACHING 80 DEGS OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 3O TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSTMS AT MTW FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE RAIN BAND. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
649 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

RATHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS VERY STRONG UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PLUNGE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS
ALSO TRAVERSING EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS HELPING TO
GENERATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS MANITOWOC COUNTY NEAR
THE FRONT BUT THESE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IMPULSE HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCED CU/SC ALONG THE WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN BORDER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN REACHING 30 MPH AT IMT AT TIMES.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE A
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...ORGANIZED AND RATHER STRONG
MESOSCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A NW-
SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
NEAR THE LFQ OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX. LATEST RADAR
DATA INDICATES WELL-ORGANIZED QUASILINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE LFQ OF THE JET AND HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE RACES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THIS QUASILINEAR MCS
APPEARS TO BE PROPAGATING FASTER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01 OR 02Z. IN
ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING AREA OF BLYR
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ALONG THE AFFORMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTATED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WE APPROACH THE LATE
EVENING...THE QUASILINEAR MCS AND SCATTERED UPSTREAM SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. FEEL
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKENING THE
CONVECTION AFTER 09Z AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 12-14Z SUNDAY...LINGERED LOW POPS WELL INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO HELP FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY
LATE AFTERNOON..DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT. TEMPS
WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EXTENDED MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE WITH THE
MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM A ROCKIES UPR RDG/E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FCST ISSUES HAVE TO DEAL WITH SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MID-WEEK HEADED TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD SEND NE WI FROM
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS/ABOVE NORMAL PCPN...TO A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE SE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY SUNDAY NGT. THIS PLACES NE WI
UNDER THE NRN FRINGES OF THIS SFC HI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A LIGHT N-NW WIND. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS TNGT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BR FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTH LATE SUNDAY NGT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE AND MAY NOT BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
THE MID 30S OVER NRN WI. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST WORDING
GENERALLY NORTH OF A MERRILL-ANTIGO-WAUSAUKEE LINE.

THE SFC HI DRIFTS EAST INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON MON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEST WINDS UNDER 10
MPH AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S LAKESIDE (DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE) TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS THE SFC HI HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST MON NGT...MODEST WAA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WI...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNGT. 8H TEMPS ARE
ABOUT 4C DEGS WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY NGT...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
SFC TEMPS TO QUITE AS COOL. THE W-SW WINDS ALOFT WL ALSO BEGIN TO
BRING A TOUCH OF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER BOUT OF PATCHY LATE NGT FOG OVER THE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS
SOUTH. RETURN FLOW IN FULL EFFECT BY TUE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH (EXCEPT S-SE NEAR LAKE MI AS THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES INLAND)
AND WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR PUSHES INTO WI. THE FCST AREA TO RESIDE
ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEPARTED SFC HI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
LAKESIDE...UPR 60S/LWR 70S ELSEWHERE.

HEADED INTO MID-WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS TO BE ON THE MOVEMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF (REMAINS OF A CA CLOSED UPR LOW) ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. TUE NGT APPEARS TO REMAIN QUIET UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT S-SE WINDS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST ON WED IN A WEAKENING STATE BETWEEN UPR RDGS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND ERN CONUS. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER CNTRL
WI WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHWRS IMPINGING ON N-CNTRL WI
LATE IN THE DAY. ERN WI SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LWR 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER N-CNTRL
AND LAKESHORE.

AN INTERESTING PHENOMENA THEN TAKES PLACE WED NGT INTO THU AS THE
ERN CONUS UPR RDG RETROGRADES WWD AND STARTS TO PINCH OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF STILL SITUATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. NRN
SECTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES...
WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE TROF DRIFTS SW AND TRIES TO BECOME A WEAK
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF THIS SCENARIO IS CORRECT...
CNTRL WI MAY HAVE A SMALL SHWR CHC WED NGT INTO THU MORNING...BUT
ERN WI MAY END UP NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN.

THE END OF THE WEEK WL FEATURE A DEEP UPR TROF HITTING THE WEST
COAST AND A LARGE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
SET-UP WOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
IN FACT...CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS ON SAT REACHING 80 DEGS OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH RHI/AUW/CWA AROUND
03Z...AND ATW/GRB/MTW AROUND 05Z-06Z. AFTER THE INITIAL BAND MOVES
THROUGH...AN AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THE STEADY
RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 202014
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

RATHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS VERY STRONG UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PLUNGE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS
ALSO TRAVERSING EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS HELPING TO
GENERATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS MANITOWOC COUNTY NEAR
THE FRONT BUT THESE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IMPULSE HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCED CU/SC ALONG THE WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN BORDER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN REACHING 30 MPH AT IMT AT TIMES.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE A
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...ORGANIZED AND RATHER STRONG
MESOSCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A NW-
SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
NEAR THE LFQ OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX. LATEST RADAR
DATA INDICATES WELL-ORGANIZED QUASILINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE LFQ OF THE JET AND HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE RACES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THIS QUASILINEAR MCS
APPEARS TO BE PROPAGATING FASTER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01 OR 02Z. IN
ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING AREA OF BLYR
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ALONG THE AFFORMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTATED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WE APPROACH THE LATE
EVENING...THE QUASILINEAR MCS AND SCATTERED UPSTREAM SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. FEEL
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKENING THE
CONVECTION AFTER 09Z AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 12-14Z SUNDAY...LINGERED LOW POPS WELL INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO HELP FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY
LATE AFTERNOON..DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT. TEMPS
WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EXTENDED MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE WITH THE
MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM A ROCKIES UPR RDG/E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FCST ISSUES HAVE TO DEAL WITH SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MID-WEEK HEADED TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD SEND NE WI FROM
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS/ABOVE NORMAL PCPN...TO A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE SE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY SUNDAY NGT. THIS PLACES NE WI
UNDER THE NRN FRINGES OF THIS SFC HI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A LIGHT N-NW WIND. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS TNGT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BR FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTH LATE SUNDAY NGT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE AND MAY NOT BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
THE MID 30S OVER NRN WI. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST WORDING
GENERALLY NORTH OF A MERRILL-ANTIGO-WAUSAUKEE LINE.

THE SFC HI DRIFTS EAST INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON MON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEST WINDS UNDER 10
MPH AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S LAKESIDE (DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE) TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS THE SFC HI HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST MON NGT...MODEST WAA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WI...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNGT. 8H TEMPS ARE
ABOUT 4C DEGS WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY NGT...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
SFC TEMPS TO QUITE AS COOL. THE W-SW WINDS ALOFT WL ALSO BEGIN TO
BRING A TOUCH OF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER BOUT OF PATCHY LATE NGT FOG OVER THE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS
SOUTH. RETURN FLOW IN FULL EFFECT BY TUE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH (EXCEPT S-SE NEAR LAKE MI AS THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES INLAND)
AND WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR PUSHES INTO WI. THE FCST AREA TO RESIDE
ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEPARTED SFC HI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
LAKESIDE...UPR 60S/LWR 70S ELSEWHERE.

HEADED INTO MID-WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS TO BE ON THE MOVEMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF (REMAINS OF A CA CLOSED UPR LOW) ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. TUE NGT APPEARS TO REMAIN QUIET UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT S-SE WINDS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST ON WED IN A WEAKENING STATE BETWEEN UPR RDGS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND ERN CONUS. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER CNTRL
WI WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHWRS IMPINGING ON N-CNTRL WI
LATE IN THE DAY. ERN WI SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LWR 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER N-CNTRL
AND LAKESHORE.

AN INTERESTING PHENOMENA THEN TAKES PLACE WED NGT INTO THU AS THE
ERN CONUS UPR RDG RETROGRADES WWD AND STARTS TO PINCH OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF STILL SITUATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. NRN
SECTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES...
WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE TROF DRIFTS SW AND TRIES TO BECOME A WEAK
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF THIS SCENARIO IS CORRECT...
CNTRL WI MAY HAVE A SMALL SHWR CHC WED NGT INTO THU MORNING...BUT
ERN WI MAY END UP NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN.

THE END OF THE WEEK WL FEATURE A DEEP UPR TROF HITTING THE WEST
COAST AND A LARGE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
SET-UP WOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
IN FACT...CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS ON SAT REACHING 80 DEGS OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTCENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN
SC AOA 3000 FEET OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN QUICKLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING GENERATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD AFFECTING THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CIGS THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201752
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1252 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTCENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN
SC AOA 3000 FEET OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN QUICKLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING GENERATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD AFFECTING THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CIGS THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 201752
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1252 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTCENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN
SC AOA 3000 FEET OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN QUICKLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING GENERATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD AFFECTING THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CIGS THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IT
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TODAY WITH
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. IT SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IT
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TODAY WITH
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. IT SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 200859
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LLWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AT CWA/AUW EARLY
THIS MORNING (LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET STREAK)...AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT GRB/ATW/MTW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE). MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 200859
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LLWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AT CWA/AUW EARLY
THIS MORNING (LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET STREAK)...AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT GRB/ATW/MTW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE). MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







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