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000
FXUS63 KGRB 182241
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
541 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FCST ISSUES TO BE TIMING OF PCPN ONSET ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SAT AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. TEMPS ON SAT ARE ALSO
NO BARGAIN AS CLOUDS THICKEN...PLENTY OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
WRN ONTARIO SWD THRU WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. MORNING LOW CLOUDS
IN THE EAST HAD MIXED OUT AND DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD WAS EATING
AWAY AT THE MID/HI CLOUDS TRYING TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. VSBL
SATL IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SNOW LINE RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM
MEDFORD TO ANTIGO TO WAUSAUKEE.

THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDES TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES TNGT AND ALLOWS
THE WIND TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE E-SE OVRNGT. ATTENTION TO BE FOCUSED
OVER S-CNTRL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WHERE A SFC LOW/CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF
TO BE SITUATED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS (50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET)
TO BE AIMED AT THE UPR MS VALLEY AND HELP LIFT A WRMFNT INTO CNTRL
MN/SW WI BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE SOME PCPN BREAK OUT IN THE
STRONG ISEN LIFT REGIME/UPR DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER MN AND MOVE INTO NW
WI LATE. FOR NE WI...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU THE NGT ALTHO A
SMALL POP MAY BE NEEDED FOR VILAS/NW ONEIDA COUNTIES LATE. UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
UNDER THE SNOWPACK NORTH...TO AROUND 30 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROF ARE FCST TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER ON SAT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
CDFNT WL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS MN AS THE WRMFNT LIFT NE THRU WI. EVEN
THO THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS...A PERSISTENT SOUTH WIND JUST ABOVE
THE SFC WL BRING MSTR NWD. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP STRONGER
FORCING WELL TO OUR NW WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...LEAVING THE CDFNT
AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PCPN. THIS WOULD PLACE N-CNTRL WI WITH
THE BEST CHC OF SEEING LIGHT RAIN MOVE IN ON SAT. THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA WL ONLY SEE CLOUDS INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPR 40S OVER
N-CNTRL WI...TO THE LWR TO MID 60S OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI. ONSHORE
WINDS WL CONT TO KEEP AREAS NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ABOUT THE
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EASTER SUNDAY. THINK
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A
BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STAYING DRY EASTER
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THEN UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
AIR AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY. THEY BRING THE UPPER
SYSTEM ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

MELTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY
RISE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RISING WATER LEVELS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE A BIT MORE MODEST THAT WHAT WAS FORECAST A FEW DAYS
AGO...WHICH MAY SPARE US FROM SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WX THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SFC RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS E
OF THE RGN...AND RETURN SSELY FLOW DEVELOPS IN IT/S WAKE. PREV TAF
PKG INTRODUCED LLWS AT THE WRN TAF SITES LATE TNGT/EARLY SAT...AND
WL CONT THAT TREND. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT WL BE INCRG ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...DRY LOW-LEVELS SHOULD GREATLY THE PCPN
POTENTIAL. WL JUST ADD A CHC TO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA FOR
TOMORROW AFTN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 181941
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FCST ISSUES TO BE TIMING OF PCPN ONSET ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SAT AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. TEMPS ON SAT ARE ALSO
NO BARGAIN AS CLOUDS THICKEN...PLENTY OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
WRN ONTARIO SWD THRU WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. MORNING LOW CLOUDS
IN THE EAST HAD MIXED OUT AND DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD WAS EATING
AWAY AT THE MID/HI CLOUDS TRYING TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. VSBL
SATL IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SNOW LINE RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM
MEDFORD TO ANTIGO TO WAUSAUKEE.

THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDES TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES TNGT AND ALLOWS
THE WIND TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE E-SE OVRNGT. ATTENTION TO BE FOCUSED
OVER S-CNTRL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WHERE A SFC LOW/CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF
TO BE SITUATED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS (50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET)
TO BE AIMED AT THE UPR MS VALLEY AND HELP LIFT A WRMFNT INTO CNTRL
MN/SW WI BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE SOME PCPN BREAK OUT IN THE
STRONG ISEN LIFT REGIME/UPR DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER MN AND MOVE INTO NW
WI LATE. FOR NE WI...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU THE NGT ALTHO A
SMALL POP MAY BE NEEDED FOR VILAS/NW ONEIDA COUNTIES LATE. UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
UNDER THE SNOWPACK NORTH...TO AROUND 30 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROF ARE FCST TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER ON SAT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
CDFNT WL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS MN AS THE WRMFNT LIFT NE THRU WI. EVEN
THO THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS...A PERSISTENT SOUTH WIND JUST ABOVE
THE SFC WL BRING MSTR NWD. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP STRONGER
FORCING WELL TO OUR NW WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...LEAVING THE CDFNT
AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PCPN. THIS WOULD PLACE N-CNTRL WI WITH
THE BEST CHC OF SEEING LIGHT RAIN MOVE IN ON SAT. THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA WL ONLY SEE CLOUDS INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPR 40S OVER
N-CNTRL WI...TO THE LWR TO MID 60S OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI. ONSHORE
WINDS WL CONT TO KEEP AREAS NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ABOUT THE
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EASTER SUNDAY. THINK
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A
BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STAYING DRY EASTER
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THEN UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
AIR AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY. THEY BRING THE UPPER
SYSTEM ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

MELTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY
RISE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RISING WATER LEVELS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE A BIT MORE MODEST THAT WHAT WAS FORECAST A FEW DAYS
AGO...WHICH MAY SPARE US FROM SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

NOW THAT THE MORNING MVFR LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...
EXPECT TO SEE ONLY MID/HI CLOUDS DRIFT THRU AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN ATTRACTION TO BE A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SRN CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES THIS WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TNGT/SAT WL BRING MSTR NWD FOR
THE CDFNT TO GENERATE SHWRS TO OUR WEST TNGT AND THE NRN THIRD OF
WI ON SAT. EVEN WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING...FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU SAT WITH VFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KALLAS









000
FXUS63 KGRB 181734
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1234 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES...AND PCPN TRENDS ON SATURDAY.

LOW CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TOO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVER NC WI AS THE CLEARING OCCURRED...
DUE TO RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS OVER THE FRESH AND DEEP SNOW COVER.

PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OVER NC/FAR NE WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
TO THE FCST AREA. MIXING THROUGH ABOUT 850 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. HAVE
GONE A FEW DEGREES BLO GUIDANCE OVER NC/FAR NE...OVER THE DEEP
SNOW PACK...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ARE
ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. DESPITE INCREASING WAA OVER OUR WSTRN COUNTIES...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
TO PRECLUDE PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW
THE TREND...TEMPS MAY WARM A BIT OVERNIGHT DUE TO WAA AND INCREASING
CLOUDS.

WAA WILL INCREASE OVER THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY...ON THE NOSE OF
A 30-50 KT LLJ (STRONGEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA). THE BEST
FORCING AND SATURATION IS EXPECTED OVER N WI...SO PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE FOCUSED THERE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER. A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER NC WI
EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTH
(SNOW PACK AND CLOUDS/PCPN)...BUT RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S OVER PARTS OF C/EC WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE MAIN FOCUS
IN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THAN THE ECMWF. THE APPEAL TO THE GEM INDICATES SUPPORT FOR
THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TO HELP SAG A COOL FRONT SLOWLY INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL THETAE AXIS ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN.  THE RAIN SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  NOT LOOKING
AT ALOT OF RAIN DESPITE PWATS OVER AN INCH...BUT PERHAPS A TENTH OR
TWO.  THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONT
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY BE PRESENT
TO KEEP N-C WISCONSIN PRECIP FREE THOUGH.  THE FRONT MOVES VERY
LITTLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FORCING COULD MAKE
THE FRONT MORE ACTIVE.  THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.  FINALLY...THE SUPPORT ALOFT IS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL START THE FIRST DRY PERIOD THEN.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN A DEEP
WESTERN NOAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

NOW THAT THE MORNING MVFR LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...
EXPECT TO SEE ONLY MID/HI CLOUDS DRIFT THRU AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN ATTRACTION TO BE A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SRN CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES THIS WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TNGT/SAT WL BRING MSTR NWD FOR
THE CDFNT TO GENERATE SHWRS TO OUR WEST TNGT AND THE NRN THIRD OF
WI ON SAT. EVEN WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING...FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU SAT WITH VFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KALLAS








000
FXUS63 KGRB 181146
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
646 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES...AND PCPN TRENDS ON SATURDAY.

LOW CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TOO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVER NC WI AS THE CLEARING OCCURRED...
DUE TO RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS OVER THE FRESH AND DEEP SNOW COVER.

PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OVER NC/FAR NE WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
TO THE FCST AREA. MIXING THROUGH ABOUT 850 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. HAVE
GONE A FEW DEGREES BLO GUIDANCE OVER NC/FAR NE...OVER THE DEEP
SNOW PACK...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ARE
ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. DESPITE INCREASING WAA OVER OUR WSTRN COUNTIES...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
TO PRECLUDE PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW
THE TREND...TEMPS MAY WARM A BIT OVERNIGHT DUE TO WAA AND INCREASING
CLOUDS.

WAA WILL INCREASE OVER THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY...ON THE NOSE OF
A 30-50 KT LLJ (STRONGEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA). THE BEST
FORCING AND SATURATION IS EXPECTED OVER N WI...SO PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE FOCUSED THERE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER. A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER NC WI
EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTH
(SNOW PACK AND CLOUDS/PCPN)...BUT RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S OVER PARTS OF C/EC WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE MAIN FOCUS
IN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THAN THE ECMWF. THE APPEAL TO THE GEM INDICATES SUPPORT FOR
THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TO HELP SAG A COOL FRONT SLOWLY INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL THETAE AXIS ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN.  THE RAIN SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  NOT LOOKING
AT ALOT OF RAIN DESPITE PWATS OVER AN INCH...BUT PERHAPS A TENTH OR
TWO.  THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONT
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY BE PRESENT
TO KEEP N-C WISCONSIN PRECIP FREE THOUGH.  THE FRONT MOVES VERY
LITTLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FORCING COULD MAKE
THE FRONT MORE ACTIVE.  THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.  FINALLY...THE SUPPORT ALOFT IS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL START THE FIRST DRY PERIOD THEN.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN A DEEP
WESTERN NOAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF NE/EC WI THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD EXIT THE MTW VCNTY BY AROUND 15Z. PATCHY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN FOG WILL ALSO END ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI EARLY TODAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 180836
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
336 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES...AND PCPN TRENDS ON SATURDAY.

LOW CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TOO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVER NC WI AS THE CLEARING OCCURRED...
DUE TO RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS OVER THE FRESH AND DEEP SNOW COVER.

PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OVER NC/FAR NE WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
TO THE FCST AREA. MIXING THROUGH ABOUT 850 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. HAVE
GONE A FEW DEGREES BLO GUIDANCE OVER NC/FAR NE...OVER THE DEEP
SNOW PACK...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ARE
ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. DESPITE INCREASING WAA OVER OUR WSTRN COUNTIES...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
TO PRECLUDE PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW
THE TREND...TEMPS MAY WARM A BIT OVERNIGHT DUE TO WAA AND INCREASING
CLOUDS.

WAA WILL INCREASE OVER THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY...ON THE NOSE OF
A 30-50 KT LLJ (STRONGEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA). THE BEST
FORCING AND SATURATION IS EXPECTED OVER N WI...SO PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE FOCUSED THERE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER. A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER NC WI
EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTH
(SNOW PACK AND CLOUDS/PCPN)...BUT RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S OVER PARTS OF C/EC WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE MAIN FOCUS
IN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THAN THE ECMWF. THE APPEAL TO THE GEM INDICATES SUPPORT FOR
THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TO HELP SAG A COOL FRONT SLOWLY INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL THETAE AXIS ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN.  THE RAIN SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  NOT LOOKING
AT ALOT OF RAIN DESPITE PWATS OVER AN INCH...BUT PERHAPS A TENTH OR
TWO.  THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONT
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY BE PRESENT
TO KEEP N-C WISCONSIN PRECIP FREE THOUGH.  THE FRONT MOVES VERY
LITTLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FORCING COULD MAKE
THE FRONT MORE ACTIVE.  THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.  FINALLY...THE SUPPORT ALOFT IS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL START THE FIRST DRY PERIOD THEN.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN A DEEP
WESTERN NOAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR CIGS SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING NORTH AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
EASTWARD PUSH OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF KRHI/KAUW/KCWA BY 08Z.
ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DECIDED TO TAKE THE KRHI TAF DOWN TO
A HALF MILE IN FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
MELTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE QUICKER TO VEER ALONG THE
LAKE DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE AND MAY ARRIVE AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
18Z.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 180334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SEVERAL FCST ISSUES TO DEAL WITH MAINLY DURING THE TNGT PORTION OF
THE FCST. FIRST ISSUE IS THE HANDLING OF CLOUDS AS THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE SNOW NORTH CONTS TO PULL AWAY...BUT MID/HI
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISEN LIFT TO ALREADY BE KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR LATER TNGT. SECOND ISSUE IS MIN TEMPS AS ANY PROLONGED
CLEARING SKIES COULD ALLOW READINGS TO FREE-FALL OVER THE NORTH.
THE LAST ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT TO MENTION ANY FOG AS WINDS GO
LIGHT AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS DUE TO SOME OF THE
NEW SNOW MELTING

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER E-CNTRL WI WITH A CDFNT
EXTENDED S-SW INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A RDG OF HI PRES WAS LOCATED
OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THE BACK EDGE
OF SNOW NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND PULLING FARTHER AWAY. VSBL SATL
IMAGERY DID SHOW A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
DEPARTED SYSTEM WHICH ENCOMPASSES ALL OF WI.

THE NARROW RDG OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
TNGT AND PROVIDE FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE MIDWEST NORTH OF A
WRMFNT...EXPECT TO SEE MID/HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH TOWARD
CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. THESE CLOUDS WL BE A PROBLEM IN TRYING TO
DETERMINE MIN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE A FRESH FOOT
PLUS OF NEW SNOW FELL. PREFER TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WHERE THE SNOW
FELL WITH TEENS NORTH NORTH...BUT ONLY UPR 20S OVER E-CNTRL WI.
ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR TNGT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH DUE TO THE INITIAL CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE (SNOW). HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM MARATHON COUNTY TO NRN MARINETTE COUNTY IN
COLLABORATION WITH DLH AND ARX.

MID/HI CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCREASE OVER WI ON FRI AS LOW PRES OVER
THE NRN PLAINS GENERATES INCREASING ISEN LIFT ACROSS THE UPR MS
VALLEY. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...BUT PREVAILING N-NE
WINDS WL PLACE A CAP ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 DEGS N-CNTRL WI TO THE LWR 50S WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TOWARDS JAMES BAY WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS EASTER SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTION AS TOO HOW MUCH OF A BREAK WE MIGHT
HAVE IN THE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE JET
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN
THE ACTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THERE IS A LOT OF
COLD AND DRY AIR UP THERE. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS WET AS YESTERDAY
BUT STILL KEEPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS KIND OF IN BETWEEN.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR CIGS SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING NORTH AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
EASTWARD PUSH OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF KRHI/KAUW/KCWA BY 08Z.
ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DECIDED TO TAKE THE KRHI TAF DOWN TO
A HALF MILE IN FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
MELTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE QUICKER TO VEER ALONG THE
LAKE DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE AND MAY ARRIVE AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
18Z.


&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 172236
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
536 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SEVERAL FCST ISSUES TO DEAL WITH MAINLY DURING THE TNGT PORTION OF
THE FCST. FIRST ISSUE IS THE HANDLING OF CLOUDS AS THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE SNOW NORTH CONTS TO PULL AWAY...BUT MID/HI
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISEN LIFT TO ALREADY BE KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR LATER TNGT. SECOND ISSUE IS MIN TEMPS AS ANY PROLONGED
CLEARING SKIES COULD ALLOW READINGS TO FREE-FALL OVER THE NORTH.
THE LAST ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT TO MENTION ANY FOG AS WINDS GO
LIGHT AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS DUE TO SOME OF THE
NEW SNOW MELTING

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER E-CNTRL WI WITH A CDFNT
EXTENDED S-SW INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A RDG OF HI PRES WAS LOCATED
OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THE BACK EDGE
OF SNOW NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND PULLING FARTHER AWAY. VSBL SATL
IMAGERY DID SHOW A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
DEPARTED SYSTEM WHICH ENCOMPASSES ALL OF WI.

THE NARROW RDG OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
TNGT AND PROVIDE FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE MIDWEST NORTH OF A
WRMFNT...EXPECT TO SEE MID/HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH TOWARD
CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. THESE CLOUDS WL BE A PROBLEM IN TRYING TO
DETERMINE MIN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE A FRESH FOOT
PLUS OF NEW SNOW FELL. PREFER TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WHERE THE SNOW
FELL WITH TEENS NORTH NORTH...BUT ONLY UPR 20S OVER E-CNTRL WI.
ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR TNGT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH DUE TO THE INITIAL CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE (SNOW). HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM MARATHON COUNTY TO NRN MARINETTE COUNTY IN
COLLABORATION WITH DLH AND ARX.

MID/HI CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCREASE OVER WI ON FRI AS LOW PRES OVER
THE NRN PLAINS GENERATES INCREASING ISEN LIFT ACROSS THE UPR MS
VALLEY. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...BUT PREVAILING N-NE
WINDS WL PLACE A CAP ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 DEGS N-CNTRL WI TO THE LWR 50S WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TOWARDS JAMES BAY WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS EASTER SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTION AS TOO HOW MUCH OF A BREAK WE MIGHT
HAVE IN THE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE JET
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN
THE ACTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THERE IS A LOT OF
COLD AND DRY AIR UP THERE. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS WET AS YESTERDAY
BUT STILL KEEPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS KIND OF IN BETWEEN.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE
LAKE. MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS HOW QUICK MVFR CIGS WILL
EXIT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEST INCLINATION IS THE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP AROUND 03Z...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST IT COULD BE LATER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
ONE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 171952
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SEVERAL FCST ISSUES TO DEAL WITH MAINLY DURING THE TNGT PORTION OF
THE FCST. FIRST ISSUE IS THE HANDLING OF CLOUDS AS THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE SNOW NORTH CONTS TO PULL AWAY...BUT MID/HI
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISEN LIFT TO ALREADY BE KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR LATER TNGT. SECOND ISSUE IS MIN TEMPS AS ANY PROLONGED
CLEARING SKIES COULD ALLOW READINGS TO FREE-FALL OVER THE NORTH.
THE LAST ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT TO MENTION ANY FOG AS WINDS GO
LIGHT AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS DUE TO SOME OF THE
NEW SNOW MELTING

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER E-CNTRL WI WITH A CDFNT
EXTENDED S-SW INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A RDG OF HI PRES WAS LOCATED
OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THE BACK EDGE
OF SNOW NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND PULLING FARTHER AWAY. VSBL SATL
IMAGERY DID SHOW A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
DEPARTED SYSTEM WHICH ENCOMPASSES ALL OF WI.

THE NARROW RDG OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
TNGT AND PROVIDE FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE MIDWEST NORTH OF A
WRMFNT...EXPECT TO SEE MID/HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH TOWARD
CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. THESE CLOUDS WL BE A PROBLEM IN TRYING TO
DETERMINE MIN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE A FRESH FOOT
PLUS OF NEW SNOW FELL. PREFER TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WHERE THE SNOW
FELL WITH TEENS NORTH NORTH...BUT ONLY UPR 20S OVER E-CNTRL WI.
ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR TNGT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH DUE TO THE INITIAL CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE (SNOW). HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM MARATHON COUNTY TO NRN MARINETTE COUNTY IN
COLLABORATION WITH DLH AND ARX.

MID/HI CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCREASE OVER WI ON FRI AS LOW PRES OVER
THE NRN PLAINS GENERATES INCREASING ISEN LIFT ACROSS THE UPR MS
VALLEY. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...BUT PREVAILING N-NE
WINDS WL PLACE A CAP ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 DEGS N-CNTRL WI TO THE LWR 50S WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TOWARDS JAMES BAY WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS EASTER SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTION AS TOO HOW MUCH OF A BREAK WE MIGHT
HAVE IN THE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE JET
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN
THE ACTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THERE IS A LOT OF
COLD AND DRY AIR UP THERE. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS WET AS YESTERDAY
BUT STILL KEEPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS KIND OF IN BETWEEN.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WEAKENING SYSTEM CENTERED OVER E-CNTRL WI TO CONT MOVING E-NE
INTO NRN LWR MI BY THIS EVENING AND INTO SE CANADA OVRNGT. PCPN
HAS ENDED OVER NE WI...HOWEVER PLENTY OF IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAIN
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVER NRN WI. SUCKER HOLE IN THE CLOUDS
OVER ERN WI WL GRADUALLY FILL WITH MORE CLOUDS...SO M0STLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO
WI TNGT...THUS WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DISSIPATE FOR A TIME WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. EXCEPTION COULD BE AT THE RHI TAF SITE WHERE
PATCHY FOG MAY REFORM AND SEND VSBYS BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SFC HI TO THEN MOVE ACROSS WI ON FRI WITH MAINLY MID/HI CLOUDS
EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KALLAS









000
FXUS63 KGRB 171718
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1218 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CHANGES TO PCPN TRENDS AND WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THIS MORNING
ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE WAS MOVG ACROSS THE NW HALF OF WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ENHANCED SOUTHERN EDGE ALIGNED FROM ABOUT
MERRILL TO IRON MOUNTAIN. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NC WI DURING THE PAST HOUR. PCPN WAS FINALLY WORKING
ITS WAY INTO EASTERN WI...AS STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROF...UPPER DIVG...FGEN FORCING AND WAA
ARRIVED. PCPN TYPE WAS SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM AUW-MNM...WITH
MAINLY RAIN OVER C/EC WI.

EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE NW OF A LINE FROM RRL-IMT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...AND THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES. HOWEVER...TEMP/RH/OMEGA
TIMESECTIONS SHOW THAT THE SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER
NORTHERN WI DURING THE 14Z-16Z PERIOD...AND SHOULD ACTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT...RESULTING IN
A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE REMAINING SATURATED LAYER. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN...SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING ISSUES. WITH THESE TRENDS IN
MIND...WILL CHANGE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE HEADLINES TO 11 AM...
AND THE DAY SHIFT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM A LITTLE
EARLIER.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL PULL OUT OF FAR NE WI DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FRIDAY THOUGH...AS THE LFQ OF A JET STREAK AND A S/W TROF
WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NE WI DURING THE DAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS
OVER THE SNOW COVERED NORTHWOODS...AND SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
OVER C/EC WI. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND.  A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOULD SUFFICE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THE START OF FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THEN WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL
QUICKLY OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.  BUT THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE ALONG WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO REBOUND.  WILL TRY TO SHOW THIS TREND IN
THE GRIDS.  THEN RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. INCOMING MID-LEVEL THETAE
AXIS AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL CREATE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS POINT TOWARDS NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAVING A BETTER
CHANCE THAN ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DRY SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW.  THIS THETAE AXIS ALONG A DECAYING COOL FRONT WILL
THEN SAG ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEEMS LIKE A
DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.25
INCHES.  PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY...AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT
STILL IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
RAIN.  WILL INCREASE POPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  LIGHT RAIN
COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY IS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THEN
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WEAKENING SYSTEM CENTERED OVER E-CNTRL WI TO CONT MOVING E-NE
INTO NRN LWR MI BY THIS EVENING AND INTO SE CANADA OVRNGT. PCPN
HAS ENDED OVER NE WI...HOWEVER PLENTY OF IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAIN
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVER NRN WI. SUCKER HOLE IN THE CLOUDS
OVER ERN WI WL GRADUALLY FILL WITH MORE CLOUDS...SO M0STLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO
WI TNGT...THUS WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DISSIPATE FOR A TIME WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. EXCEPTION COULD BE AT THE RHI TAF SITE WHERE
PATCHY FOG MAY REFORM AND SEND VSBYS BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SFC HI TO THEN MOVE ACROSS WI ON FRI WITH MAINLY MID/HI CLOUDS
EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KALLAS








000
FXUS63 KGRB 171152
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CHANGES TO PCPN TRENDS AND WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THIS MORNING
ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE WAS MOVG ACROSS THE NW HALF OF WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ENHANCED SOUTHERN EDGE ALIGNED FROM ABOUT
MERRILL TO IRON MOUNTAIN. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NC WI DURING THE PAST HOUR. PCPN WAS FINALLY WORKING
ITS WAY INTO EASTERN WI...AS STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROF...UPPER DIVG...FGEN FORCING AND WAA
ARRIVED. PCPN TYPE WAS SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM AUW-MNM...WITH
MAINLY RAIN OVER C/EC WI.

EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE NW OF A LINE FROM RRL-IMT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...AND THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES. HOWEVER...TEMP/RH/OMEGA
TIMESECTIONS SHOW THAT THE SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER
NORTHERN WI DURING THE 14Z-16Z PERIOD...AND SHOULD ACTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT...RESULTING IN
A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE REMAINING SATURATED LAYER. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN...SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING ISSUES. WITH THESE TRENDS IN
MIND...WILL CHANGE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE HEADLINES TO 11 AM...
AND THE DAY SHIFT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM A LITTLE
EARLIER.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL PULL OUT OF FAR NE WI DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FRIDAY THOUGH...AS THE LFQ OF A JET STREAK AND A S/W TROF
WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NE WI DURING THE DAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS
OVER THE SNOW COVERED NORTHWOODS...AND SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
OVER C/EC WI. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND.  A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOULD SUFFICE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THE START OF FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THEN WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL
QUICKLY OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.  BUT THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE ALONG WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO REBOUND.  WILL TRY TO SHOW THIS TREND IN
THE GRIDS.  THEN RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. INCOMING MID-LEVEL THETAE
AXIS AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL CREATE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS POINT TOWARDS NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAVING A BETTER
CHANCE THAN ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DRY SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW.  THIS THETAE AXIS ALONG A DECAYING COOL FRONT WILL
THEN SAG ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEEMS LIKE A
DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.25
INCHES.  PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY...AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT
STILL IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
RAIN.  WILL INCREASE POPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  LIGHT RAIN
COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY IS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THEN
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM LIFR/VLIFR
IN HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF NC/FAR NE WI...TO VFR ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE SNOW AND MIXED PCPN (FARTHER SOUTH) WILL
TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OT EARLY EVENING.
WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE IF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP
OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK OVER NC/FAR NE WI TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
018-019-021.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 170851
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CHANGES TO PCPN TRENDS AND WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THIS MORNING
ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE WAS MOVG ACROSS THE NW HALF OF WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ENHANCED SOUTHERN EDGE ALIGNED FROM ABOUT
MERRILL TO IRON MOUNTAIN. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NC WI DURING THE PAST HOUR. PCPN WAS FINALLY WORKING
ITS WAY INTO EASTERN WI...AS STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROF...UPPER DIVG...FGEN FORCING AND WAA
ARRIVED. PCPN TYPE WAS SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM AUW-MNM...WITH
MAINLY RAIN OVER C/EC WI.

EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE NW OF A LINE FROM RRL-IMT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...AND THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES. HOWEVER...TEMP/RH/OMEGA
TIMESECTIONS SHOW THAT THE SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER
NORTHERN WI DURING THE 14Z-16Z PERIOD...AND SHOULD ACTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT...RESULTING IN
A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE REMAINING SATURATED LAYER. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN...SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING ISSUES. WITH THESE TRENDS IN
MIND...WILL CHANGE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE HEADLINES TO 11 AM...
AND THE DAY SHIFT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM A LITTLE
EARLIER.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL PULL OUT OF FAR NE WI DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FRIDAY THOUGH...AS THE LFQ OF A JET STREAK AND A S/W TROF
WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NE WI DURING THE DAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS
OVER THE SNOW COVERED NORTHWOODS...AND SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
OVER C/EC WI. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND.  A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOULD SUFFICE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THE START OF FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THEN WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL
QUICKLY OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.  BUT THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE ALONG WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO REBOUND.  WILL TRY TO SHOW THIS TREND IN
THE GRIDS.  THEN RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. INCOMING MID-LEVEL THETAE
AXIS AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL CREATE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS POINT TOWARDS NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAVING A BETTER
CHANCE THAN ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DRY SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW.  THIS THETAE AXIS ALONG A DECAYING COOL FRONT WILL
THEN SAG ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEEMS LIKE A
DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.25
INCHES.  PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY...AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT
STILL IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
RAIN.  WILL INCREASE POPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  LIGHT RAIN
COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY IS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THEN
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY OVERNIGHT...FROM MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW...TO VFR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THEN
END DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN....
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW (PRIMARY SNOW) SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS PORTION
OF THE STATE TOWARDS 12Z. DID CONTINUE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ABOUT 1600 FEET OFF THE GROUND AROUND 160/170 DEGREES AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW NIGHT AND DETERMINE IF THERE IS ANY FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO
LIGHTENING WINDS AND MAYBE A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
018-019-021.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 170332
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PART OF THE FCST. EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW FOR
A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE THE SNOW RETURNS
LATER THIS EVENING THRU THU MORNING. EXACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NW IA
WITH A WRMFNT EXTENDED EAST/THEN SE INTO CNTRL IL. A CDFNT
STRETCHED FROM THE SFC LOW SWWD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. INITAL
SURGE OF SNOW NOW OVER FAR NRN WI WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW
LOCATED OVER MN.

THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM NW IA NEWD TO W-CNTRL WI TNGT
WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM TRACK.
THE HEAVY SNOW WL CONT IN PART DUE TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
THANKS TO A 45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED AT WI. FARTHER
ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING
AND A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPR JET TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. NRN WI TO REMAIN DIRECTLY UNDER THE MAIN BRUNT OF
THE SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES BY
DAYBREAK. CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE LULL IN THE ACTION FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE BETTER FORCING/LIFT ARRIVES DURING THE
OVRNGT HOURS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THUS...HAVE FOCUSED THE LIKELY
POPS AFTER MIDNGT FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH PCPN TYPE LIKELY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO SNOW LATE OVER CNTRL WI. BASED ON
EXPECTED LESS SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MARATHON COUNTY...WL DROP THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY ONLY.

SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI THU MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR BY THU EVENING. NRN WI COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THU MORNING WHICH WOULD
BRING TOTALS INTO THE 8 TO 16 INCH RANGE (HIGHEST VALUES IN VILAS
COUNTY). THE PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY...BUT CLOUDS WL REMAIN THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S FAR N-CNTRL...TO THE UPR 40S WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
WEAK UPPER RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IT COULD GET VERY COLD IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT
IF SKIES COULD CLEAR. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA SO DID NOT GO AS COLD AS IT COULD GET IF SKIES CLEAR.
LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF SNOW COVERED GROUND
TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP IT COOL FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON AN
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY A SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
HOLDS UP THE FRONT THOUGH MONDAY WITH OVERRUNNING RAINS WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UNUSUALLY COLD AND
DRY AIR TO OUR NORTH MIGHT JUST PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SO THAT IS WHERE WE ARE LEANING RIGHT NOW. WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY OVERNIGHT...FROM MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW...TO VFR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THEN
END DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN....
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW (PRIMARY SNOW) SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS PORTION
OF THE STATE TOWARDS 12Z. DID CONTINUE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ABOUT 1600 FEET OFF THE GROUND AROUND 160/170 DEGREES AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW NIGHT AND DETERMINE IF THERE IS ANY FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO
LIGHTENING WINDS AND MAYBE A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS.


&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-
019-021.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 162323
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
623 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PART OF THE FCST. EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW FOR
A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE THE SNOW RETURNS
LATER THIS EVENING THRU THU MORNING. EXACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NW IA
WITH A WRMFNT EXTENDED EAST/THEN SE INTO CNTRL IL. A CDFNT
STRETCHED FROM THE SFC LOW SWWD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. INITAL
SURGE OF SNOW NOW OVER FAR NRN WI WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW
LOCATED OVER MN.

THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM NW IA NEWD TO W-CNTRL WI TNGT
WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM TRACK.
THE HEAVY SNOW WL CONT IN PART DUE TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
THANKS TO A 45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED AT WI. FARTHER
ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING
AND A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPR JET TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. NRN WI TO REMAIN DIRECTLY UNDER THE MAIN BRUNT OF
THE SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES BY
DAYBREAK. CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE LULL IN THE ACTION FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE BETTER FORCING/LIFT ARRIVES DURING THE
OVRNGT HOURS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THUS...HAVE FOCUSED THE LIKELY
POPS AFTER MIDNGT FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH PCPN TYPE LIKELY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO SNOW LATE OVER CNTRL WI. BASED ON
EXPECTED LESS SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MARATHON COUNTY...WL DROP THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY ONLY.

SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI THU MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR BY THU EVENING. NRN WI COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THU MORNING WHICH WOULD
BRING TOTALS INTO THE 8 TO 16 INCH RANGE (HIGHEST VALUES IN VILAS
COUNTY). THE PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY...BUT CLOUDS WL REMAIN THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S FAR N-CNTRL...TO THE UPR 40S WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
WEAK UPPER RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IT COULD GET VERY COLD IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT
IF SKIES COULD CLEAR. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA SO DID NOT GO AS COLD AS IT COULD GET IF SKIES CLEAR.
LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF SNOW COVERED GROUND
TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP IT COOL FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON AN
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY A SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
HOLDS UP THE FRONT THOUGH MONDAY WITH OVERRUNNING RAINS WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UNUSUALLY COLD AND
DRY AIR TO OUR NORTH MIGHT JUST PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SO THAT IS WHERE WE ARE LEANING RIGHT NOW. WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
SNOW WILL ARRIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. CIGS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-
019-021.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 162013
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PART OF THE FCST. EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW FOR
A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE THE SNOW RETURNS
LATER THIS EVENING THRU THU MORNING. EXACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NW IA
WITH A WRMFNT EXTENDED EAST/THEN SE INTO CNTRL IL. A CDFNT
STRETCHED FROM THE SFC LOW SWWD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. INITAL
SURGE OF SNOW NOW OVER FAR NRN WI WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW
LOCATED OVER MN.

THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM NW IA NEWD TO W-CNTRL WI TNGT
WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM TRACK.
THE HEAVY SNOW WL CONT IN PART DUE TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
THANKS TO A 45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED AT WI. FARTHER
ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING
AND A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPR JET TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. NRN WI TO REMAIN DIRECTLY UNDER THE MAIN BRUNT OF
THE SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES BY
DAYBREAK. CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE LULL IN THE ACTION FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE BETTER FORCING/LIFT ARRIVES DURING THE
OVRNGT HOURS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THUS...HAVE FOCUSED THE LIKELY
POPS AFTER MIDNGT FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH PCPN TYPE LIKELY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO SNOW LATE OVER CNTRL WI. BASED ON
EXPECTED LESS SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MARATHON COUNTY...WL DROP THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY ONLY.

SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI THU MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR BY THU EVENING. NRN WI COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THU MORNING WHICH WOULD
BRING TOTALS INTO THE 8 TO 16 INCH RANGE (HIGHEST VALUES IN VILAS
COUNTY). THE PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY...BUT CLOUDS WL REMAIN THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S FAR N-CNTRL...TO THE UPR 40S WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
WEAK UPPER RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IT COULD GET VERY COLD IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT
IF SKIES COULD CLEAR. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA SO DID NOT GO AS COLD AS IT COULD GET IF SKIES CLEAR.
LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF SNOW COVERED GROUND
TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP IT COOL FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON AN
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY A SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
HOLDS UP THE FRONT THOUGH MONDAY WITH OVERRUNNING RAINS WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UNUSUALLY COLD AND
DRY AIR TO OUR NORTH MIGHT JUST PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SO THAT IS WHERE WE ARE LEANING RIGHT NOW. WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINTER STORM TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS NEWD INTO WI
TNGT AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR ON THU. HVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS NRN WI WITH THE RHI TAF SITE PRETTY MUCH EITHER IFR OR LIFR
TNGT INTO THU MORNING. CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
LULL IN THE PCPN THRU THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PCPN BEGINS TO PICK
UP LATER TNGT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES. LOOK FOR CIGS/VSBYS TO GO
FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS.
WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THU MORNING...CIGS COULD
BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-
019-021.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KALLAS








000
FXUS63 KGRB 161809
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
109 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERN.

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL WI WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE SNOW BAND WAS THE RESULT OF INCREASING WAA/
ISENT LIFT AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
ANOTHER 3-5 HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW OVERSPREADS NC/FAR NE WI...AS VERY
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THERE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-55 KT LLJ...STG UPPER LEVEL DIVG WITH
THE RRQ OF A JET TODAY AND A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE TONIGHT...AND
DEEP FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING...MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORTED LOWERING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...INITIALLY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AT
ONSET...THEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LINGERING POCKET OF DRY AIR IN
THE 900-800 MB LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EVEN
SO...PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR OVER MAINLY NC WI
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE SHIFTED THE RAIN/SNOW LINE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
WET BULB TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT A MIX SOUTH OF AN RRL-MNM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW OF THE EVENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NC/FAR NE
WI LATE TONIGHT...AS A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROF SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN WI...AND THE SFC-H8 CIRCULATIONS MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE 06Z-12Z/THU PERIOD...AND LINGERED SOME ACCUMS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER FAR
NORTHERN WI...WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 8 TO 13 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. HAVE ADDED NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY INTO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AS TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED
THERE.

THE ADVISORY OVER MARATHON COUNTY IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC...AS
SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE EVENT...
WITH A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MIDDLE. THE TWO PERIODS
OF SNOW MAY RESULT IN TOTAL ACCUMS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...BUT THAT IS
OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. DESPITE MARGINAL CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING...ESPECIALLY SINCE A BAND OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE RUSH HOUR THIS MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT CAN DECIDE
IF THE HEADLINE SHOULD BE CONTINUED AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW
MOVES THROUGH...OR SNOW BECOMES MIXED WITH RAIN.

AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THURSDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DEAMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE BREAKING DOWN WITH INCOMING
PACIFIC ENERGY.  PREFER THE ECMWF THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL LET
THE ALLBLEND HANDLE THE REST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TRAILING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST
SCT CLOUD COVER IF NOT BROKEN AT TIMES.  THINKING THAT A DRY WEDGE
IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THOUGH.  HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  COULD SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE 700MB THETAE AXIS COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT.  BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS TAPPED.  THOUGH FORCING WILL BE
WEAKENING OVER THIS TIME...PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH COULD LEAD TO
SOME DECENT RAINS.  SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN IF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAUSES THE FRONT
TO HANG BACK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINTER STORM TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS NEWD INTO WI
TNGT AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR ON THU. HVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS NRN WI WITH THE RHI TAF SITE PRETTY MUCH EITHER IFR OR LIFR
TNGT INTO THU MORNING. CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
LULL IN THE PCPN THRU THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PCPN BEGINS TO PICK
UP LATER TNGT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES. LOOK FOR CIGS/VSBYS TO GO
FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS.
WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THU MORNING...CIGS COULD
BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-
019-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KALLAS








000
FXUS63 KGRB 161153
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
653 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERN.

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL WI WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE SNOW BAND WAS THE RESULT OF INCREASING WAA/
ISENT LIFT AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
ANOTHER 3-5 HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW OVERSPREADS NC/FAR NE WI...AS VERY
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THERE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-55 KT LLJ...STG UPPER LEVEL DIVG WITH
THE RRQ OF A JET TODAY AND A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE TONIGHT...AND
DEEP FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING...MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORTED LOWERING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...INITIALLY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AT
ONSET...THEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LINGERING POCKET OF DRY AIR IN
THE 900-800 MB LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EVEN
SO...PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR OVER MAINLY NC WI
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE SHIFTED THE RAIN/SNOW LINE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
WET BULB TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT A MIX SOUTH OF AN RRL-MNM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW OF THE EVENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NC/FAR NE
WI LATE TONIGHT...AS A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROF SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN WI...AND THE SFC-H8 CIRCULATIONS MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE 06Z-12Z/THU PERIOD...AND LINGERED SOME ACCUMS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER FAR
NORTHERN WI...WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 8 TO 13 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. HAVE ADDED NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY INTO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AS TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED
THERE.

THE ADVISORY OVER MARATHON COUNTY IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC...AS
SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE EVENT...
WITH A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MIDDLE. THE TWO PERIODS
OF SNOW MAY RESULT IN TOTAL ACCUMS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...BUT THAT IS
OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. DESPITE MARGINAL CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING...ESPECIALLY SINCE A BAND OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE RUSH HOUR THIS MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT CAN DECIDE
IF THE HEADLINE SHOULD BE CONTINUED AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW
MOVES THROUGH...OR SNOW BECOMES MIXED WITH RAIN.

AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THURSDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DEAMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE BREAKING DOWN WITH INCOMING
PACIFIC ENERGY.  PREFER THE ECMWF THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL LET
THE ALLBLEND HANDLE THE REST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TRAILING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST
SCT CLOUD COVER IF NOT BROKEN AT TIMES.  THINKING THAT A DRY WEDGE
IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THOUGH.  HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  COULD SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE 700MB THETAE AXIS COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT.  BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS TAPPED.  THOUGH FORCING WILL BE
WEAKENING OVER THIS TIME...PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH COULD LEAD TO
SOME DECENT RAINS.  SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN IF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAUSES THE FRONT
TO HANG BACK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DRY AIR WAS SLOWING ITS PROGRESS. A
STEADY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER NC/FAR NE WI...
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN END THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER
SOUTH...LIGHT SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRANSITION BACK TO
SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR ONCE PCPN DEVELOPS...ALTHOUGH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATER
TONIGHT.

LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-019-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 160919
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
419 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERN.

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL WI WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE SNOW BAND WAS THE RESULT OF INCREASING WAA/
ISENT LIFT AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
ANOTHER 3-5 HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW OVERSPREADS NC/FAR NE WI...AS VERY
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THERE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-55 KT LLJ...STG UPPER LEVEL DIVG WITH
THE RRQ OF A JET TODAY AND A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE TONIGHT...AND
DEEP FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING...MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORTED LOWERING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...INITIALLY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AT
ONSET...THEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LINGERING POCKET OF DRY AIR IN
THE 900-800 MB LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EVEN
SO...PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR OVER MAINLY NC WI
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE SHIFTED THE RAIN/SNOW LINE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
WET BULB TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT A MIX SOUTH OF AN RRL-MNM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW OF THE EVENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NC/FAR NE
WI LATE TONIGHT...AS A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROF SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN WI...AND THE SFC-H8 CIRCULATIONS MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE 06Z-12Z/THU PERIOD...AND LINGERED SOME ACCUMS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER FAR
NORTHERN WI...WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 8 TO 13 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. HAVE ADDED NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY INTO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AS TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED
THERE.

THE ADVISORY OVER MARATHON COUNTY IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC...AS
SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE EVENT...
WITH A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MIDDLE. THE TWO PERIODS
OF SNOW MAY RESULT IN TOTAL ACCUMS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...BUT THAT IS
OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. DESPITE MARGINAL CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING...ESPECIALLY SINCE A BAND OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE RUSH HOUR THIS MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT CAN DECIDE
IF THE HEADLINE SHOULD BE CONTINUED AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW
MOVES THROUGH...OR SNOW BECOMES MIXED WITH RAIN.

AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THURSDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DEAMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE BREAKING DOWN WITH INCOMING
PACIFIC ENERGY.  PREFER THE ECMWF THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL LET
THE ALLBLEND HANDLE THE REST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TRAILING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST
SCT CLOUD COVER IF NOT BROKEN AT TIMES.  THINKING THAT A DRY WEDGE
IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THOUGH.  HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  COULD SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE 700MB THETAE AXIS COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT.  BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS TAPPED.  THOUGH FORCING WILL BE
WEAKENING OVER THIS TIME...PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH COULD LEAD TO
SOME DECENT RAINS.  SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN IF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAUSES THE FRONT
TO HANG BACK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE STORM...AND HOW THIS COLD DRY AIR WILL
AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPES. DESPITE STRONG SOUTH WINDS...850MB
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET TO 0C DESPITE IT BEING MID APRIL.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHICH SHOULD WORK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AROUND 12Z. AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW OVER THE FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE. THE LATEST WRF MESOSCALE (WRF12...WRF40) MODELS
NOW SHOW A BREAK IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OR A COMPLETE BREAK
EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS COULD REALLY PLAY
HAVOC ON SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AND TRYING TO DETERMINE CEILINGS FOR THE 06Z TAFS. IF THERE IS A
BREAK OR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 12Z TAFS AFTER
MIDNIGHT PERSON TAKE A LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-019-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 160336
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO LA CROSSE...DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MARATHON COUNTY DUE TO SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE TO WORK. SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THIS COUNTY SHOULD BE IN THE 2
TO 4 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST TOTALS OVER THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING.
STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 7 AM INSTEAD OF 10 AM AS NARROW BAND OF
SNOW SHOULD WORK INTO MARATHON COUNTY AROUND 12Z...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING. DECIDED TO END THE
ADVISORY FOR MARATHON COUNTY AT 15Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A LULL IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING
MAY MINIMIZE THE IMPACTS OF ANY SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN MATTER OF FACT...THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN IN MARATHON COUNTY. MIDNIGHT/DAY SHIFT CAN ANALYZE TO SEE IF THE
ADVISORY FOR MARATHON COUNTY MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TO QPF/SNOWFALL GRIDS. NEW GRIDS/ZONES/WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCT OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORE SNOW FOR THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

UPR TROF POSN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WL BE RE-ENERGIZED BY
PACIFIC SHRTWV HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TREND LATER IN THE
FCST PERIOD WL BE TOWARD A LOWER AMPLITUDE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. BACKING UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE RE-AMPLIFYING UPR TROF
COMBINED WITH CYCLONE WORKG EWD FM THE PLAINS WL BRING A SIG SNOW
TO NRN WI THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AFTER THAT...THERE WL BE ANOTHER
CHC OF PCPN DURING THE WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL PROBABLY END UP AOA
NORMAL ACRS THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND AOB NORMAL ACRS THE S.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD...WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM WHICH FEATURE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND COOLER PICTURE WITH INCOMING SYSTEM. NOT TOO OVERLY DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOING.

UPPER TROF EXITING THE REGION TODAY...PLENTY OF CU AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...FLURRIES DEVELOPED OVER CWA WITH COLD AIR ALOFT.
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM MOVE IN. LOOK FOR
LATE AFTN HIGH TEMPS...WITH SIG DROP AS SUN GOES DOWN GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

WAVE MOVING THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN AS DROPS INTO
PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...THAN
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE WED AFTN. SIG DYNAMICS WITH
SYSTEM VIA RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH CANADA...H8 WAA ON
THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DOES INTERSECT BEST SNOW GROWTH
REGION...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON MOISTURE GIVEN SOURCE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. HOW FAR NORTH IS
STILL IN QUESTION BETWEEN MODELS. BELIEVE ALL SNOW WHERE WATCH
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...THUS WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING. FURTHER SOUTH
WENT WITH ADVISORY AS TOTALS WILL BE MORE AFFECTED BY WARM LAYER.
LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE IF COOLER TEMPS WIN OUT. LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED TO START JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER THE WEST...WITH MUCH
OF HEAVIER SNOW STARTING BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO TIMES ON
WARNING NEEDED.

WILL SEE INCREASING EAST WINDS OVER THE AREA AS LOW MOVES
EAST...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW LATE IN THE DAY WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON SYSTEM TRACKING ACRS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE. 12Z RAOBS FM THE PLAINS WWD
WERE QUITE DRY...AND SFC DWPTS ACRS THE ENTIRE RGN ARE DRY. THAT
SUGGESTS SIG LIFT WL NEED TO GO INTO ACHIEVING SATURATION. WITH
SUCH SYSTEMS...THE SIG PCPN IS CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE DRY AIR ALSO WL OPEN THE DOOR TO SIG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LIMITING THE NWD ADVANCE OF ANY WARM
LAYER ALOFT. OF ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...THE ECMWF FITS THE
BILL WITH THESE ASPECTS OF THE FCST THE BEST. IT HAD ONE OF THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE QPF TOTALS FOR THE EVENT...AND KEPT THE TEMPS
ALOFT COLDER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR THESE REASONS...TRENDED
STRONGLY TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE FCST GRIDS.

AS MENTIONED YDA...THE THE TIMING OF PCPN CHCS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE FCST WL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE FLATTENING UPR FLOW.
THE CONSENSUS-BASED XTD INITIALIZATION GRIDS SEEMED REASONABLE...
SO NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE STORM...AND HOW THIS COLD DRY AIR WILL
AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPES. DESPITE STRONG SOUTH WINDS...850MB
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET TO 0C DESPITE IT BEING MID APRIL.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHICH SHOULD WORK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AROUND 12Z. AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW OVER THE FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE. THE LATEST WRF MESOSCALE (WRF12...WRF40) MODELS
NOW SHOW A BREAK IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OR A COMPLETE BREAK
EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS COULD REALLY PLAY
HAVOC ON SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AND TRYING TO DETERMINE CEILINGS FOR THE 06Z TAFS. IF THERE IS A
BREAK OR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 12Z TAFS AFTER
MIDNIGHT PERSON TAKE A LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ030.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-019.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 160140
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
840 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO LA CROSSE...DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MARATHON COUNTY DUE TO SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE TO WORK. SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THIS COUNTY SHOULD BE IN THE 2
TO 4 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST TOTALS OVER THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING.
STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 7 AM INSTEAD OF 10 AM AS NARROW BAND OF
SNOW SHOULD WORK INTO MARATHON COUNTY AROUND 12Z...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING. DECIDED TO END THE
ADVISORY FOR MARATHON COUNTY AT 15Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A LULL IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING
MAY MINIMIZE THE IMPACTS OF ANY SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN MATTER OF FACT...THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN IN MARATHON COUNTY. MIDNIGHT/DAY SHIFT CAN ANALYZE TO SEE IF THE
ADVISORY FOR MARATHON COUNTY MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TO QPF/SNOWFALL GRIDS. NEW GRIDS/ZONES/WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCT OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORE SNOW FOR THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

UPR TROF POSN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WL BE RE-ENERGIZED BY
PACIFIC SHRTWV HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TREND LATER IN THE
FCST PERIOD WL BE TOWARD A LOWER AMPLITUDE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. BACKING UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE RE-AMPLIFYING UPR TROF
COMBINED WITH CYCLONE WORKG EWD FM THE PLAINS WL BRING A SIG SNOW
TO NRN WI THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AFTER THAT...THERE WL BE ANOTHER
CHC OF PCPN DURING THE WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL PROBABLY END UP AOA
NORMAL ACRS THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND AOB NORMAL ACRS THE S.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD...WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM WHICH FEATURE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND COOLER PICTURE WITH INCOMING SYSTEM. NOT TOO OVERLY DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOING.

UPPER TROF EXITING THE REGION TODAY...PLENTY OF CU AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...FLURRIES DEVELOPED OVER CWA WITH COLD AIR ALOFT.
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM MOVE IN. LOOK FOR
LATE AFTN HIGH TEMPS...WITH SIG DROP AS SUN GOES DOWN GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

WAVE MOVING THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN AS DROPS INTO
PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...THAN
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE WED AFTN. SIG DYNAMICS WITH
SYSTEM VIA RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH CANADA...H8 WAA ON
THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DOES INTERSECT BEST SNOW GROWTH
REGION...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON MOISTURE GIVEN SOURCE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. HOW FAR NORTH IS
STILL IN QUESTION BETWEEN MODELS. BELIEVE ALL SNOW WHERE WATCH
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...THUS WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING. FURTHER SOUTH
WENT WITH ADVISORY AS TOTALS WILL BE MORE AFFECTED BY WARM LAYER.
LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE IF COOLER TEMPS WIN OUT. LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED TO START JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER THE WEST...WITH MUCH
OF HEAVIER SNOW STARTING BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO TIMES ON
WARNING NEEDED.

WILL SEE INCREASING EAST WINDS OVER THE AREA AS LOW MOVES
EAST...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW LATE IN THE DAY WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON SYSTEM TRACKING ACRS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE. 12Z RAOBS FM THE PLAINS WWD
WERE QUITE DRY...AND SFC DWPTS ACRS THE ENTIRE RGN ARE DRY. THAT
SUGGESTS SIG LIFT WL NEED TO GO INTO ACHIEVING SATURATION. WITH
SUCH SYSTEMS...THE SIG PCPN IS CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE DRY AIR ALSO WL OPEN THE DOOR TO SIG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LIMITING THE NWD ADVANCE OF ANY WARM
LAYER ALOFT. OF ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...THE ECMWF FITS THE
BILL WITH THESE ASPECTS OF THE FCST THE BEST. IT HAD ONE OF THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE QPF TOTALS FOR THE EVENT...AND KEPT THE TEMPS
ALOFT COLDER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR THESE REASONS...TRENDED
STRONGLY TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE FCST GRIDS.

AS MENTIONED YDA...THE THE TIMING OF PCPN CHCS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE FCST WL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE FLATTENING UPR FLOW.
THE CONSENSUS-BASED XTD INITIALIZATION GRIDS SEEMED REASONABLE...
SO NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COULD STILL BE A STRAY FLURRY UNTIL THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING WISCONSIN WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH OF A WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MARINETTE LINE...IT SHOULD BE A MIX
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...
THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RIAN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IFR OR LOW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR CIGS ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-019.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 152351
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
651 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORE SNOW FOR THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

UPR TROF POSN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WL BE RE-ENERGIZED BY
PACIFIC SHRTWV HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TREND LATER IN THE
FCST PERIOD WL BE TOWARD A LOWER AMPLITUDE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. BACKING UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE RE-AMPLIFYING UPR TROF
COMBINED WITH CYCLONE WORKG EWD FM THE PLAINS WL BRING A SIG SNOW
TO NRN WI THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AFTER THAT...THERE WL BE ANOTHER
CHC OF PCPN DURING THE WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL PROBABLY END UP AOA
NORMAL ACRS THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND AOB NORMAL ACRS THE S.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD...WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM WHICH FEATURE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND COOLER PICTURE WITH INCOMING SYSTEM. NOT TOO OVERLY DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOING.

UPPER TROF EXITING THE REGION TODAY...PLENTY OF CU AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...FLURRIES DEVELOPED OVER CWA WITH COLD AIR ALOFT.
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM MOVE IN. LOOK FOR
LATE AFTN HIGH TEMPS...WITH SIG DROP AS SUN GOES DOWN GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

WAVE MOVING THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN AS DROPS INTO
PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...THAN
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE WED AFTN. SIG DYNAMICS WITH
SYSTEM VIA RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH CANADA...H8 WAA ON
THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DOES INTERSECT BEST SNOW GROWTH
REGION...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON MOISTURE GIVEN SOURCE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. HOW FAR NORTH IS
STILL IN QUESTION BETWEEN MODELS. BELIEVE ALL SNOW WHERE WATCH
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...THUS WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING. FURTHER SOUTH
WENT WITH ADVISORY AS TOTALS WILL BE MORE AFFECTED BY WARM LAYER.
LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE IF COOLER TEMPS WIN OUT. LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED TO START JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER THE WEST...WITH MUCH
OF HEAVIER SNOW STARTING BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO TIMES ON
WARNING NEEDED.

WILL SEE INCREASING EAST WINDS OVER THE AREA AS LOW MOVES
EAST...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW LATE IN THE DAY WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON SYSTEM TRACKING ACRS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE. 12Z RAOBS FM THE PLAINS WWD
WERE QUITE DRY...AND SFC DWPTS ACRS THE ENTIRE RGN ARE DRY. THAT
SUGGESTS SIG LIFT WL NEED TO GO INTO ACHIEVING SATURATION. WITH
SUCH SYSTEMS...THE SIG PCPN IS CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE DRY AIR ALSO WL OPEN THE DOOR TO SIG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LIMITING THE NWD ADVANCE OF ANY WARM
LAYER ALOFT. OF ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...THE ECMWF FITS THE
BILL WITH THESE ASPECTS OF THE FCST THE BEST. IT HAD ONE OF THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE QPF TOTALS FOR THE EVENT...AND KEPT THE TEMPS
ALOFT COLDER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR THESE REASONS...TRENDED
STRONGLY TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE FCST GRIDS.

AS MENTIONED YDA...THE THE TIMING OF PCPN CHCS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE FCST WL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE FLATTENING UPR FLOW.
THE CONSENSUS-BASED XTD INITIALIZATION GRIDS SEEMED REASONABLE...
SO NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COULD STILL BE A STRAY FLURRY UNTIL THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING WISCONSIN WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH OF A WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MARINETTE LINE...IT SHOULD BE A MIX
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...
THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RIAN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IFR OR LOW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR CIGS ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-019.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








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