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000
FXUS63 KGRB 302101
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
401 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE PLENTY OF ISSUES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
THINGS WERE RELATIVELY QUITE DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN WESTERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MOVES TO THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS. THE COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS START
TO LOWER AND LAKE SURFACE TO 850MB DELTA-T VALUES DECREASE.
EXPECT 2 TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN VILAS
COUNTY FOR THIS EVENT.

STRONG 925MB AND 850MB WINDS WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD 925MB WINDS OF 50 KNOTS AT 12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
BROWN...KEWAUNEE...CALUMET AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES FROM 12Z THROUGH
23Z FRIDAY. KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY FOR DOOR COUNTY...WHERE START
TIME IS 05Z DUE TO FAVORABLE FETCH OVER THE BAY...AND EXTENDED IT
FOR ANOTHER 2 HOURS TO 23Z FRIDAY TO MATCH THE REST OF THE WIND
ADVISORY AREA.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S ON FRIDAY. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH UPR TROFS ALONG
BOTH COASTS AND AN UPR RDG OVER CNTRL NOAM...WL GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY TO A CERTAIN DEGREE NEXT WEEK AS THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF
MOVES TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS THIS UPR TROF (AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT) THAT WL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHC OF PCPN TO NE WI
DURING THE MON AFTERNOON THRU TUE MORNING TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MEAN FLOW...THE MDLS NOW SEND A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM TOWARD WI LATE WED OR WED NGT. TYPICAL AUTUMN SWINGS
IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH READINGS GOING FROM BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND...TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO THEN SETTLING CLOSE
TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES TO ERN ONTARIO FRI NGT...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE YOUNG WINTER SEASON TO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SEND MIN TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS OVER
VILAS CNTY (WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER TO EXIST)...TO THE UPR 20S
NEAR LAKE MI. THE SFC HI TO MOVE ACROSS ERN WI TOWARD MIDDAY SAT
AND RESIDE JUST TO OUR EAST BY 00Z SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY VEER THRU THE DAY WITH S-SE WINDS ACROSS CNTRL WI BY
DAY`S END AND A NE WIND FOR ERN WI. WHILE SUNNY SKIES WL PREVAIL
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THESE NE WINDS MAY BRING SOME LAKE
CLOUDS TO ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL ONLY REACH THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S.

A MORE PRONOUNCED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER WI SAT NGT AS THE SFC
HI HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
A 20-30KT SW BOUNDARY LAYER WIND COMBINED WITH THE ONSET OF WAA...
WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR. THE MOST NOTICEABLE TEMP
RISE TO BE OVER CNTRL WI WHERE READINGS WL BE 5 TO 10 DEGS MILDER
COMPARED TO FRI NGT. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE LWR TO
MID 20S...EXCEPT AROUND 30 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE
ROCKIES AND HELP DISPLACE THE CNTRL NOAM UPR RDG INTO THE E-CNTRL
CONUS. PERSISTENT S-SW WINDS WL CONT TO SEND MILDER AIR INTO WI AS
8H TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +7C BY 00Z MON. THE CONTINUATION OF WAA WL
ALSO START TO TAP GULF MOISTURE...THUS AN INCREASE IN MID/HI CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER
THAN SAT...PLACING READINGS IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SUNDAY NGT AS THE STRONGEST WAA
LIFTS NEWD...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MON MORNING AS
GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH AHEAD OF A CDFNT. MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
THAT THE CDFNT WL APPROACH WRN WI MONO AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF RAIN SHWRS REACHING AT LEAST THE SW THREE-QUARTERS OF THE
STATE BY 00Z TUE. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE ALREADY HAD THIS RAIN CHC
COVERED AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE ANYTHING RIGHT NOW. MAX TEMPS
FOR MON WL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S.

PCPN CHCS WL CONT THRU MOST OF MON NGT AS THE CDFNT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE STATE. THE FCST IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT FOR TUE
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE TRAILING AND WEAKENING UPR TROF.
ONLY THE GEM MAINTAINS PCPN ON TUE AND THAT IS MORE DUE TO A SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE CDFNT THAN THE UPR TROF. SINCE THE GEM IS ALONE IN
THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BASED THE FCST ON THE MAJORITY SOLUTION WHICH
SENDS A DRY SLOT ACROSS WI ON TUE WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
AFFECTING NRN WI. MAX TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LWR TO MID 40S N-CNTRL WI TO AROUND 50 DEGS E-CNTRL
WI.

ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES E-SE INTO
THE UPR MS VALLEY WED AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENUF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL POP TO NE WI WITH TEMPS
WARM ENUF TO ALLOW ANY PCPN TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. WEAK SFC RIDGING
IS THEN FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME...WITH VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE WERE SOME
RETURNS ON RADAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GREEN BAY SO THERE ARE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OUT THERE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE
NORTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SHOULD
BE MAINLY MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR CIGS IN SNOW AND VSBYS IFR IN
SNOW AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND QUITE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND THE BAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ039-040-049-
050.

WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ022.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 301810
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
110 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A BRIEF TASTE OF WINTRY WEATHER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
A RETURN TO MUCH QUIETER LATE-AUTUMN CONDITIONS.

STG AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN UNDERWAY. AMPLITUDE
SHOULD PEAK EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH DEEP TROFS NR THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE ERN CONUS...SANDWICHING AND A SHARP FULL-
LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THAT WL KEEP THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-LIVED...WITH
THE WRN TROF EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPS WILL
REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO OR MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN WL BE WITH STG
SHRTWV DIGGING ACRS THE REGION AND INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN NOAM
LNGWV TROF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
LARGE-SCALE WRN TROF ARRIVES. GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE...PCPN
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP AOB NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE THE LAKE-SUPERIOR SNOWBELT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST DETAILS TO WORK OUT THIS MORNING. INTENSE NRN
STREAM SHRTWV WL DIG SSEWD INTO THE ERN CONUS UPR TROF. RAPIDLY
BUILDING ANTICYCLONE SUPPORTED BY THE SHRTWV RIDGING BEHIND THE
UPR SYSTEM WL DRIVE COLD CANADIAN AIR RAPIDLY SWD INTO THE AREA.
GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS IN NRN CANADA AND IT/S
RAPID TRANSPORT SOUTH...IT WILL STILL BE VERY CHILLY WHEN IT
ARRIVES. THE COLDER TEMPS COMBINED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WL
PROBABLY MAKE IT/S ARRIVAL EVEN MORE NOTICABLE.

WILL JUST HIT THE HIGHLIGHTS...

SHRA WITH THE UPR SYSTEM WL CHG TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
IN THE N THIS EVENING. NLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WL RESULT IN
SOME LAKE-EFFECT. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF TIME DURING
THE EVENING WHEN THE SYNOPTIC FORCING OVERLAPS THE LAKE-
EFFECT...AND THE MOST VIGOROUOS SHSN ARE EXPECTED THEN. SHSN WL
CONT THE REST OF THE NGT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WL BE
FIGHTING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BY THAT POINT. GIVEN IT/S THE
FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND THERE WL BE SOME WIND...CONDITIONS
SEEMED WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY...SO ONE WAS POSTED.

NLY FLOW OVER THE BAY AND LAKE WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING...INTO
50 KT WINDS ARND 850 MB. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOOR.
CURRENT FCST CONDITIONS FOR THE FOX VALLEY EWD TO THE LAKESHORE
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN HITTING
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THIS AREA /00Z ECMWF
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WINDS/ SO STUCK WITH MENTION IN THE HWO AND
AN SPS. THIS WL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT THE MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
ADJUST THE FCST AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST DATA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MAIN
ISSUES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE...AND THEN
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. THIS STILL HOLDS TRUE ACROSS OUR WEST...
BUT LATEST GFS/WRF MODELS INDICATED 850/925MB WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME
TRUE...WILL NEED TO ADD MORE CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE FACT THE BAY AND LAKE ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM.
COULD BE LONG FETCH DOWN THE BAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BAY EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE WINDS AND CLOUDS OFF THE BAY AND LAKE COULD
PLAY HAVOC ON LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE THIS SCENARIO
BY THE WRF/GFS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THE ECMWF
IS MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...WILL ADD MORE CLOUDS
TO THE FORECAST AND BUMP UP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HOLD OFF ON
ADDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST...DAY SHIFT CAN ADD PRECIPITATION
TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIODS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN (SOME SNOW NORTH LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING) IS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WISCONSIN ON MONDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY FOR THE MOMENT...
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED
TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME...WITH VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE WERE SOME
RETURNS ON RADAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GREEN BAY SO THERE ARE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OUT THERE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE
NORTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SHOULD
BE MAINLY MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR CIGS IN SNOW AND VSBYS IFR IN
SNOW AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND QUITE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND THE BAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ022.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 301012
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
512 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED TO ADD SHORT TERM PORTION FOR MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A BRIEF TASTE OF WINTRY WEATHER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
A RETURN TO MUCH QUIETER LATE-AUTUMN CONDITIONS.

STG AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN UNDERWAY. AMPLITUDE
SHOULD PEAK EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH DEEP TROFS NR THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE ERN CONUS...SANDWICHING AND A SHARP FULL-
LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THAT WL KEEP THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-LIVED...WITH
THE WRN TROF EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPS WILL
REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO OR MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN WL BE WITH STG
SHRTWV DIGGING ACRS THE REGION AND INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN NOAM
LNGWV TROF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
LARGE-SCALE WRN TROF ARRIVES. GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE...PCPN
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP AOB NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE THE LAKE-SUPERIOR SNOWBELT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST DETAILS TO WORK OUT THIS MORNING. INTENSE NRN
STREAM SHRTWV WL DIG SSEWD INTO THE ERN CONUS UPR TROF. RAPIDLY
BUILDING ANTICYCLONE SUPPORTED BY THE SHRTWV RIDGING BEHIND THE
UPR SYSTEM WL DRIVE COLD CANADIAN AIR RAPIDLY SWD INTO THE AREA.
GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS IN NRN CANADA AND IT/S
RAPID TRANSPORT SOUTH...IT WILL STILL BE VERY CHILLY WHEN IT
ARRIVES. THE COLDER TEMPS COMBINED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WL
PROBABLY MAKE IT/S ARRIVAL EVEN MORE NOTICABLE.

WILL JUST HIT THE HIGHLIGHTS...

SHRA WITH THE UPR SYSTEM WL CHG TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
IN THE N THIS EVENING. NLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WL RESULT IN
SOME LAKE-EFFECT. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF TIME DURING
THE EVENING WHEN THE SYNOPTIC FORCING OVERLAPS THE LAKE-
EFFECT...AND THE MOST VIGOROUOS SHSN ARE EXPECTED THEN. SHSN WL
CONT THE REST OF THE NGT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WL BE
FIGHTING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BY THAT POINT. GIVEN IT/S THE
FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND THERE WL BE SOME WIND...CONDITIONS
SEEMED WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY...SO ONE WAS POSTED.

NLY FLOW OVER THE BAY AND LAKE WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING...INTO
50 KT WINDS ARND 850 MB. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOOR.
CURRENT FCST CONDITIONS FOR THE FOX VALLEY EWD TO THE LAKESHORE
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN HITTING
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THIS AREA /00Z ECMWF
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WINDS/ SO STUCK WITH MENTION IN THE HWO AND
AN SPS. THIS WL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT THE MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
ADJUST THE FCST AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST DATA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MAIN
ISSUES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE...AND THEN
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. THIS STILL HOLDS TRUE ACROSS OUR WEST...
BUT LATEST GFS/WRF MODELS INDICATED 850/925MB WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME
TRUE...WILL NEED TO ADD MORE CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE FACT THE BAY AND LAKE ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM.
COULD BE LONG FETCH DOWN THE BAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BAY EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE WINDS AND CLOUDS OFF THE BAY AND LAKE COULD
PLAY HAVOC ON LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE THIS SCENARIO
BY THE WRF/GFS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THE ECMWF
IS MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...WILL ADD MORE CLOUDS
TO THE FORECAST AND BUMP UP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HOLD OFF ON
ADDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST...DAY SHIFT CAN ADD PRECIPITATION
TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIODS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN (SOME SNOW NORTH LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING) IS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WISCONSIN ON MONDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY FOR THE MOMENT...
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED
TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR CIGS STILL HANGING TOUGH ACRS THE N. THOSE WL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFF TO THE NE THIS MORNING. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLDS WL HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THEN...BUT THOSE ARE MUCH LESS OF A CONCERN
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS. THE MOST SIG AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24
HRS WL BE SNOW ACRS THE N LATE TNGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND STG
WINDS ACRS THE AREA LATE TNGT AND FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ022.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI











000
FXUS63 KGRB 300827
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
327 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

DISCUSSION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW A LITTLE
LATER. HEADLINE CODING FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IS BELOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MAIN
ISSUES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE...AND THEN
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. THIS STILL HOLDS TRUE ACROSS OUR WEST...
BUT LATEST GFS/WRF MODELS INDICATED 850/925MB WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME
TRUE...WILL NEED TO ADD MORE CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE FACT THE BAY AND LAKE ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM.
COULD BE LONG FETCH DOWN THE BAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BAY EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE WINDS AND CLOUDS OFF THE BAY AND LAKE COULD
PLAY HAVOC ON LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE THIS SCENARIO
BY THE WRF/GFS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THE ECMWF
IS MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...WILL ADD MORE CLOUDS
TO THE FORECAST AND BUMP UP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HOLD OFF ON
ADDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST...DAY SHIFT CAN ADD PRECIPITATION
TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIODS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN (SOME SNOW NORTH LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING) IS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WISCONSIN ON MONDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY FOR THE MOMENT...
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED
TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WERE STILL IN PLACE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN WI LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING OVER CENTRAL WI
AND PARTS OF THE FOX VALLEY. ITS NOW EVIDENT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OUT OF AUW/CWA/ATW/GRB/MTW TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY REMAIN
AT RHI. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO C/EC WI DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVG ON THURSDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
ALSO GENERATE SCT SHRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NE WI LATE THU
EVG...ALONG WITH A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE LAKESHORE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WI AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. LAKE-ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN NC WI THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER VILAS COUNTY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ022.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH










000
FXUS63 KGRB 300332
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LESS PROBLEMATIC THAN THE LONG TERM
BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH ISSUES.

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS SEEN ON
THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING...AND CYCLONIC FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WERE ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAD BEEN SOME SPRINKLES
AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER IN THE DAY BUT THEY
SEEM TO HAVE ENDED AS WINDS ALOFT BACKED A BIT. CLOUD TRENDS WILL
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON LOWS TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE REGION. IF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 30S. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT...BUT IF THERE IS A PERIOD OF CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP LIKE A ROCK WITH LITTLE
WIND TO MIX THE LOWER LEVELS.

MODELS HAD DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT SEEM TO BE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING TONIGHT DRY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING FOR THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A MENTION OF
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOUR AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND
WITH DEEP UPR TROFS OVER BOTH COASTS AND AN UPR RDG OVER CNTRL
NOAM. THIS PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER WITH THE WRN CONUS TROF
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THRU THE
GREAT LAKES AROUND TUE. MEAN FLOW TO THEN TRANSITION TO A WRN
CONUS UPR RDG/ERN CONUS UPR TROF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE INITIALLY ON THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES THU NGT/FRI BRINGING A FIRST TASTE OF WINTER
WITH SNOW/COLD/WIND. PCPN CHCS THEN RETURN MON/MON NGT WITH THE
WRN CONUS UPR TROF/SFC CDFNT. TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THE
ONSET...BUT STEADILY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FROM MON ONWARD.

WHILE THE CDFNT TO ALREADY BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY THU EVENING...
IT IS THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF LATER THU NGT THAT
WL BRING A MAJOR CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN...USHERING IN AN
EARLY TASTE OF WINTER TO ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPR TROF HAS
A LOT OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT RANGING FROM VERY STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STRONG Q-G FORCING. THE INITIAL FCST PROBLEMS
TO BE THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN...PCPN TYPE (CHANGEOVER) AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION NUMBERS (MAINLY FOR THE NORTH). AT THE ONSET...MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...
MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WL BECOME AVAILABLE AND AT LEAST CHC
POPS WL BECOME NECESSARY OVER ALL OF NE WI. AS STRONG CAA TAKES OVER
THRU THE NGT...RAIN WL BECOME MIXED WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI. THE CRASH IN 8H TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
BY 12Z FRI WL ALSO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR N-CNTRL WI AS
DELTA-T VALUES RISE INTO THE UPR TEENS. ONLY NEGATIVE FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD TEAR SNOW
BANDS APART. NEVERTHELESS...PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD RECEIVE UP
TO 3" OF FRESH SNOW BY DAYBREAK. LASTLY...WL NEED TO MONITOR WIND
SPEEDS LATER THU NGT AND A POTENTIAL WIND ADVY FOR AT LEAST DOOR
CNTY AS GUSTS COULD SURPASS 45 MPH.

THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR N-CNTRL WI WL CONT THRU FRI MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE ARA OF HI PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF NE WI WL SEE ONLY AN
ISOLATED MORNING SNOW SHWR OR FLURRIES WITH SKIES BECOMING AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) WITH GUSTS AGAIN
SURPASSING 40 MPH IN THE EAST. POTENTIAL WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY
STILL BE MET OVER DOOR CNTY. FRI WL BE A RAW DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S NORTH...AROUND 40 DEGS SOUTH.

THE HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI NGT
AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO NE WI. UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPR TEENS N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S OVER DOOR CNTY.
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR SAT AS THE HI PRES PASSES
OVERHEAD. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...THE COOL AIR MASS ALOFT COUPLED
WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY WL ONLY YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S.

AS THE SFC HI SLIDES TO OUR EAST SAT NGT...A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS WI WITH WAA GRADUALLY TAKING OVER. THE APPROACH OF THE UPR
RDG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET...ALBEIT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO TAP INTO
GULF MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGS WARMER
THAN SAT...GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S. THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A
POSITIVE-TILTED LONGWAVE TROF...PRECEDED BY A CDFNT...WL BRING
THAT NEXT CHC OF PCPN TO THE REGION BY MON AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
SURGE OF WAA ON MON COULD SEND MAX TEMPS OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA TO THE 50 DEG MARK.

THE BEST CHC OF SEEING PCPN APPEARS TO BE MON NGT AS THE CDFNT
MOVES ACROSS WI...FOLLOWED BY THE UPR TROF AFTER MIDNGT. HAVE
RAISED POPS TOWARD THE HI CHC CATEGORY AND WITH THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS PERSIST. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW
OVER THE FAR NORTH LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN
TAPERS OFF LATE ON TUE. THE MEAN FLOW BY TUE TO BE IN THE PROCESS
OF BECOMING TEMPORARILY MORE ZONAL...THUS LITTLE PROSPECT OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT FOR NRN WI.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEM MDLS ARE HAVING ISSUED WITH
HOW MUCH TO DIG THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PREVIOUS MDL RUNS KEPT THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
RUNS NOW DIG THIS SYSTEM SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. HAVE KEPT
THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW BASED ON THE MDL UNCERTAINTY...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD A POP EVENTUALLY IF THE MDLS PROVIDE SOME CONTINUITY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WERE STILL IN PLACE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN WI LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING OVER CENTRAL WI
AND PARTS OF THE FOX VALLEY. ITS NOW EVIDENT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OUT OF AUW/CWA/ATW/GRB/MTW TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY REMAIN
AT RHI. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO C/EC WI DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVG ON THURSDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
ALSO GENERATE SCT SHRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NE WI LATE THU
EVG...ALONG WITH A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE LAKESHORE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WI AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. LAKE-ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN NC WI THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER VILAS COUNTY.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. STRONG
NORTH TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS ACROSS
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY APPROACHING STORM FORCE IF THE MODELS WITH THE
STRONGER 925MB WINDS ARE CORRECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........KALLAS








000
FXUS63 KGRB 292342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
642 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LESS PROBLEMATIC THAN THE LONG TERM
BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH ISSUES.

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS SEEN ON
THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING...AND CYCLONIC FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WERE ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAD BEEN SOME SPRINKLES
AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER IN THE DAY BUT THEY
SEEM TO HAVE ENDED AS WINDS ALOFT BACKED A BIT. CLOUD TRENDS WILL
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON LOWS TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE REGION. IF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 30S. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT...BUT IF THERE IS A PERIOD OF CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP LIKE A ROCK WITH LITTLE
WIND TO MIX THE LOWER LEVELS.

MODELS HAD DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT SEEM TO BE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING TONIGHT DRY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING FOR THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A MENTION OF
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOUR AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND
WITH DEEP UPR TROFS OVER BOTH COASTS AND AN UPR RDG OVER CNTRL
NOAM. THIS PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER WITH THE WRN CONUS TROF
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THRU THE
GREAT LAKES AROUND TUE. MEAN FLOW TO THEN TRANSITION TO A WRN
CONUS UPR RDG/ERN CONUS UPR TROF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE INITIALLY ON THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES THU NGT/FRI BRINGING A FIRST TASTE OF WINTER
WITH SNOW/COLD/WIND. PCPN CHCS THEN RETURN MON/MON NGT WITH THE
WRN CONUS UPR TROF/SFC CDFNT. TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THE
ONSET...BUT STEADILY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FROM MON ONWARD.

WHILE THE CDFNT TO ALREADY BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY THU EVENING...
IT IS THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF LATER THU NGT THAT
WL BRING A MAJOR CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN...USHERING IN AN
EARLY TASTE OF WINTER TO ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPR TROF HAS
A LOT OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT RANGING FROM VERY STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STRONG Q-G FORCING. THE INITIAL FCST PROBLEMS
TO BE THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN...PCPN TYPE (CHANGEOVER) AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION NUMBERS (MAINLY FOR THE NORTH). AT THE ONSET...MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...
MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WL BECOME AVAILABLE AND AT LEAST CHC
POPS WL BECOME NECESSARY OVER ALL OF NE WI. AS STRONG CAA TAKES OVER
THRU THE NGT...RAIN WL BECOME MIXED WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI. THE CRASH IN 8H TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
BY 12Z FRI WL ALSO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR N-CNTRL WI AS
DELTA-T VALUES RISE INTO THE UPR TEENS. ONLY NEGATIVE FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD TEAR SNOW
BANDS APART. NEVERTHELESS...PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD RECEIVE UP
TO 3" OF FRESH SNOW BY DAYBREAK. LASTLY...WL NEED TO MONITOR WIND
SPEEDS LATER THU NGT AND A POTENTIAL WIND ADVY FOR AT LEAST DOOR
CNTY AS GUSTS COULD SURPASS 45 MPH.

THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR N-CNTRL WI WL CONT THRU FRI MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE ARA OF HI PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF NE WI WL SEE ONLY AN
ISOLATED MORNING SNOW SHWR OR FLURRIES WITH SKIES BECOMING AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) WITH GUSTS AGAIN
SURPASSING 40 MPH IN THE EAST. POTENTIAL WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY
STILL BE MET OVER DOOR CNTY. FRI WL BE A RAW DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S NORTH...AROUND 40 DEGS SOUTH.

THE HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI NGT
AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO NE WI. UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPR TEENS N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S OVER DOOR CNTY.
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR SAT AS THE HI PRES PASSES
OVERHEAD. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...THE COOL AIR MASS ALOFT COUPLED
WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY WL ONLY YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S.

AS THE SFC HI SLIDES TO OUR EAST SAT NGT...A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS WI WITH WAA GRADUALLY TAKING OVER. THE APPROACH OF THE UPR
RDG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET...ALBEIT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO TAP INTO
GULF MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGS WARMER
THAN SAT...GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S. THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A
POSITIVE-TILTED LONGWAVE TROF...PRECEDED BY A CDFNT...WL BRING
THAT NEXT CHC OF PCPN TO THE REGION BY MON AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
SURGE OF WAA ON MON COULD SEND MAX TEMPS OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA TO THE 50 DEG MARK.

THE BEST CHC OF SEEING PCPN APPEARS TO BE MON NGT AS THE CDFNT
MOVES ACROSS WI...FOLLOWED BY THE UPR TROF AFTER MIDNGT. HAVE
RAISED POPS TOWARD THE HI CHC CATEGORY AND WITH THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS PERSIST. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW
OVER THE FAR NORTH LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN
TAPERS OFF LATE ON TUE. THE MEAN FLOW BY TUE TO BE IN THE PROCESS
OF BECOMING TEMPORARILY MORE ZONAL...THUS LITTLE PROSPECT OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT FOR NRN WI.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEM MDLS ARE HAVING ISSUED WITH
HOW MUCH TO DIG THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PREVIOUS MDL RUNS KEPT THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
RUNS NOW DIG THIS SYSTEM SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. HAVE KEPT
THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW BASED ON THE MDL UNCERTAINTY...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD A POP EVENTUALLY IF THE MDLS PROVIDE SOME CONTINUITY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WERE STILL IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING HAD OCCURRED IN
CENTRAL WI...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...SO THE BEST
CHANCE OF PERSISTENT CLEARING WILL BE OVER PARTS OF C/EC WI.
WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MN
AND NW WI...SO SUSPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF WI THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE...AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...WILL BRING SCT SHRA TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. STRONG
NORTH TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS ACROSS
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY APPROACHING STORM FORCE IF THE MODELS WITH THE
STRONGER 925MB WINDS ARE CORRECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........KALLAS








000
FXUS63 KGRB 292009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LESS PROBLEMATIC THAN THE LONG TERM
BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH ISSUES.

LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS SEEN ON
THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING...AND CYCLONIC FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WERE ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAD BEEN SOME SPRINKLES
AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER IN THE DAY BUT THEY
SEEM TO HAVE ENDED AS WINDS ALOFT BACKED A BIT. CLOUD TRENDS WILL
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON LOWS TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE REGION. IF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 30S. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT...BUT IF THERE IS A PERIOD OF CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP LIKE A ROCK WITH LITTLE
WIND TO MIX THE LOWER LEVELS.

MODELS HAD DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT SEEM TO BE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING TONIGHT DRY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING FOR THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A MENTION OF
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOUR AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND
WITH DEEP UPR TROFS OVER BOTH COASTS AND AN UPR RDG OVER CNTRL
NOAM. THIS PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER WITH THE WRN CONUS TROF
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THRU THE
GREAT LAKES AROUND TUE. MEAN FLOW TO THEN TRANSITION TO A WRN
CONUS UPR RDG/ERN CONUS UPR TROF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE INITIALLY ON THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING SE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES THU NGT/FRI BRINGING A FIRST TASTE OF WINTER
WITH SNOW/COLD/WIND. PCPN CHCS THEN RETURN MON/MON NGT WITH THE
WRN CONUS UPR TROF/SFC CDFNT. TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THE
ONSET...BUT STEADILY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FROM MON ONWARD.

WHILE THE CDFNT TO ALREADY BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY THU EVENING...
IT IS THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF LATER THU NGT THAT
WL BRING A MAJOR CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN...USHERING IN AN
EARLY TASTE OF WINTER TO ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPR TROF HAS
A LOT OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT RANGING FROM VERY STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STRONG Q-G FORCING. THE INITIAL FCST PROBLEMS
TO BE THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN...PCPN TYPE (CHANGEOVER) AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION NUMBERS (MAINLY FOR THE NORTH). AT THE ONSET...MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...
MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WL BECOME AVAILABLE AND AT LEAST CHC
POPS WL BECOME NECESSARY OVER ALL OF NE WI. AS STRONG CAA TAKES OVER
THRU THE NGT...RAIN WL BECOME MIXED WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI. THE CRASH IN 8H TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
BY 12Z FRI WL ALSO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR N-CNTRL WI AS
DELTA-T VALUES RISE INTO THE UPR TEENS. ONLY NEGATIVE FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD TEAR SNOW
BANDS APART. NEVERTHELESS...PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD RECEIVE UP
TO 3" OF FRESH SNOW BY DAYBREAK. LASTLY...WL NEED TO MONITOR WIND
SPEEDS LATER THU NGT AND A POTENTIAL WIND ADVY FOR AT LEAST DOOR
CNTY AS GUSTS COULD SURPASS 45 MPH.

THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR N-CNTRL WI WL CONT THRU FRI MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE ARA OF HI PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF NE WI WL SEE ONLY AN
ISOLATED MORNING SNOW SHWR OR FLURRIES WITH SKIES BECOMING AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) WITH GUSTS AGAIN
SURPASSING 40 MPH IN THE EAST. POTENTIAL WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY
STILL BE MET OVER DOOR CNTY. FRI WL BE A RAW DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S NORTH...AROUND 40 DEGS SOUTH.

THE HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI NGT
AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO NE WI. UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPR TEENS N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S OVER DOOR CNTY.
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR SAT AS THE HI PRES PASSES
OVERHEAD. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...THE COOL AIR MASS ALOFT COUPLED
WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY WL ONLY YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S.

AS THE SFC HI SLIDES TO OUR EAST SAT NGT...A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS WI WITH WAA GRADUALLY TAKING OVER. THE APPROACH OF THE UPR
RDG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET...ALBEIT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO TAP INTO
GULF MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGS WARMER
THAN SAT...GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S. THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A
POSITIVE-TILTED LONGWAVE TROF...PRECEDED BY A CDFNT...WL BRING
THAT NEXT CHC OF PCPN TO THE REGION BY MON AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
SURGE OF WAA ON MON COULD SEND MAX TEMPS OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA TO THE 50 DEG MARK.

THE BEST CHC OF SEEING PCPN APPEARS TO BE MON NGT AS THE CDFNT
MOVES ACROSS WI...FOLLOWED BY THE UPR TROF AFTER MIDNGT. HAVE
RAISED POPS TOWARD THE HI CHC CATEGORY AND WITH THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS PERSIST. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW
OVER THE FAR NORTH LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN
TAPERS OFF LATE ON TUE. THE MEAN FLOW BY TUE TO BE IN THE PROCESS
OF BECOMING TEMPORARILY MORE ZONAL...THUS LITTLE PROSPECT OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT FOR NRN WI.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEM MDLS ARE HAVING ISSUED WITH
HOW MUCH TO DIG THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PREVIOUS MDL RUNS KEPT THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
RUNS NOW DIG THIS SYSTEM SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. HAVE KEPT
THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW BASED ON THE MDL UNCERTAINTY...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD A POP EVENTUALLY IF THE MDLS PROVIDE SOME CONTINUITY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE WERE FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WHERE CONDITIONS WERE
VFR AND CLOUD BASES WERE IN THE 3000FT TO 3500FT RANGE AT 17Z.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH...SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM MONTANA WILL BRING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEFORE THE END
OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. STRONG
NORTH TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS ACROSS
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY APPROACHING STORM FORCE IF THE MODELS WITH THE
STRONGER 925MB WINDS ARE CORRECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........KALLAS








000
FXUS63 KGRB 291754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOTS OF CLOUDS...WINDY AT TIMES...AND A BRIEF SHOT OF VERY CHILLY
AIR. IN OTHER WORDS...FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE-AUTUMN WEATHER.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS/PRAIRIE PROVINCES...AND A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER ERN NOAM.
DESPITE THE AMPLIFICATION...THE LNGWV PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD. THE PLAINS RIDGE SHOULD
REACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY THE UPSTREAM
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS TDA AND TOMORROW...DROP TO
VERY CHILLY LEVELS FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THEN REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN WL BE WITH STG SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE
AMPLIFYING ERN NOAM LNGWV TROF LATE IN THE WEEK...AND AGAIN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE TROF PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. SINCE
MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...PCPN AMNTS
ARE LIKELY TO END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE THE LAKE-SUPERIOR SNOWBELT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

EARLY MORNING STLT IMAGERY INDICATED EXPANSIVE CLD DECK OUT TO
THE WEST. THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS EXTENDED PAST THE UPSTREAM SFC
RIDGE AXIS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. SO
ALTHOUGH SOME HOLES IN THE CLD DECK MAY OPEN UP TDA...ESP IN THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE RGN OF ERN WI...IT LOOKS LIKE CLDS WL LINGER TDA
AND INTO TNGT. THAT WL MAKE TEMP FCST TNGT A CHALLENGE...BECAUSE
WINDS WL BE DYING OFF AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.
RAISED THEM A BIT FM PREV FCST...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY A LOW-
CONFIDENCE ASPECT OF THE FCST.

FIGURING OUT THE PCPN CHANCE THU IS ALSO A CHALLENGE. THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN BRINGING PCPN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY THU. THIS SEEMS TO BE
RELATED TO SHRTWV THAT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF SPEED MAX NOW
APPROACHING THE WA COAST. THE SHRTWV TRACKS E AND THEN TURNS SE
INTO THE DEEPENING ERN NOAM LNGWV TROF...AHEAD OF INTENSE NRN
STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM NRN CANADA. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
DEVELOPING PAC NW SHRTWV ON STLT IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HRS...LENDING SUPPORT FOR THE TRENDS ON THE
GUIDANCE. BUT MOISTURE WL STILL BE LIMITED...SO OPTED FOR A
MEASURED APPROACH TO ADDING/INCRG POPS. SPREAD POPS ACRS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT E-C WI DRY DURING THE MORNING. ALSO
OPTED TO LIMIT POPS TO THE CHC /NW/ AND SLGT CHC /SE/ CATEGORIES.
THE EARLY DAY ARRIVAL OF POPS IN THE N WARRANTED ADDING SOME
MIXED PCPN TO THE FCST FOR THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

POTENT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...STRONG WINDS...AND COLD
WEATHER FOR TRICK OR TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING.

A SHARP 500MB TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 850MB/925MB
TEMPERATURES COLLAPSE AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THUS
ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
SUPPORT A LITTLE RAIN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE NORTH...A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. I HAD TO BRING OUT THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHART FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. THE FLOW
CHART WOULD SUGGEST 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT
REGION OF VILAS COUNTY BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON
FRIDAY MORNING. 850MB/925MB WINDS...COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION
AND STEEP 1000/850MB LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THESE VALUES. SOME
CONCERN ABOUT DOOR COUNTY WHERE THE WARMER WATERS OF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY WOULD SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING. A WIND ADVISORY APPEARS TO
BE LIKELY WITH OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH OR
REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (50 KNOTS) AT DEATHS DOOR.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SURE
MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER AND MAY SHOCK SOME PEOPLE. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. FOR TRICK OR TREATERS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR 30 ACROSS THE NORTH...AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE WITH A
NORTHERLY BREEZE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR THE
MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER IS
EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS DROP
OFF AS EXPECTED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES FELL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS VILAS COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE NEW MEX GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW DEGREES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE WERE FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WHERE CONDITIONS WERE
VFR AND CLOUD BASES WERE IN THE 3000FT TO 3500FT RANGE AT 17Z.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH...SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM MONTANA WILL BRING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEFORE THE END
OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
IT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT SOME GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY COULD APPROACH STORM
FORCE IF THE MODELS WITH THE STRONGER 925MB WINDS ARE CORRECT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 290837
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
337 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOTS OF CLOUDS...WINDY AT TIMES...AND A BRIEF SHOT OF VERY CHILLY
AIR. IN OTHER WORDS...FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE-AUTUMN WEATHER.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS/PRAIRIE PROVINCES...AND A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER ERN NOAM.
DESPITE THE AMPLIFICATION...THE LNGWV PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD. THE PLAINS RIDGE SHOULD
REACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY THE UPSTREAM
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS TDA AND TOMORROW...DROP TO
VERY CHILLY LEVELS FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THEN REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN WL BE WITH STG SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE
AMPLIFYING ERN NOAM LNGWV TROF LATE IN THE WEEK...AND AGAIN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE TROF PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. SINCE
MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...PCPN AMNTS
ARE LIKELY TO END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE THE LAKE-SUPERIOR SNOWBELT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

EARLY MORNING STLT IMAGERY INDICATED EXPANSIVE CLD DECK OUT TO
THE WEST. THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS EXTENDED PAST THE UPSTREAM SFC
RIDGE AXIS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. SO
ALTHOUGH SOME HOLES IN THE CLD DECK MAY OPEN UP TDA...ESP IN THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE RGN OF ERN WI...IT LOOKS LIKE CLDS WL LINGER TDA
AND INTO TNGT. THAT WL MAKE TEMP FCST TNGT A CHALLENGE...BECAUSE
WINDS WL BE DYING OFF AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.
RAISED THEM A BIT FM PREV FCST...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY A LOW-
CONFIDENCE ASPECT OF THE FCST.

FIGURING OUT THE PCPN CHANCE THU IS ALSO A CHALLENGE. THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN BRINGING PCPN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY THU. THIS SEEMS TO BE
RELATED TO SHRTWV THAT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF SPEED MAX NOW
APPROACHING THE WA COAST. THE SHRTWV TRACKS E AND THEN TURNS SE
INTO THE DEEPENING ERN NOAM LNGWV TROF...AHEAD OF INTENSE NRN
STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM NRN CANADA. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
DEVELOPING PAC NW SHRTWV ON STLT IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HRS...LENDING SUPPORT FOR THE TRENDS ON THE
GUIDANCE. BUT MOISTURE WL STILL BE LIMITED...SO OPTED FOR A
MEASURED APPROACH TO ADDING/INCRG POPS. SPREAD POPS ACRS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT E-C WI DRY DURING THE MORNING. ALSO
OPTED TO LIMIT POPS TO THE CHC /NW/ AND SLGT CHC /SE/ CATEGORIES.
THE EARLY DAY ARRIVAL OF POPS IN THE N WARRANTED ADDING SOME
MIXED PCPN TO THE FCST FOR THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

POTENT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...STRONG WINDS...AND COLD
WEATHER FOR TRICK OR TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING.

A SHARP 500MB TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 850MB/925MB
TEMPERATURES COLLAPSE AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THUS
ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
SUPPORT A LITTLE RAIN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE NORTH...A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. I HAD TO BRING OUT THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHART FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. THE FLOW
CHART WOULD SUGGEST 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT
REGION OF VILAS COUNTY BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON
FRIDAY MORNING. 850MB/925MB WINDS...COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION
AND STEEP 1000/850MB LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THESE VALUES. SOME
CONCERN ABOUT DOOR COUNTY WHERE THE WARMER WATERS OF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY WOULD SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING. A WIND ADVISORY APPEARS TO
BE LIKELY WITH OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH OR
REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (50 KNOTS) AT DEATHS DOOR.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SURE
MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER AND MAY SHOCK SOME PEOPLE. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. FOR TRICK OR TREATERS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR 30 ACROSS THE NORTH...AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE WITH A
NORTHERLY BREEZE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR THE
MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER IS
EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS DROP
OFF AS EXPECTED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES FELL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS VILAS COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE NEW MEX GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW DEGREES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIGS OVER E-C WI SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER END VFR
CATEGORY. BUT GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE LOW CLDS DECK TO THE W...HARD TO
SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS ACRS C/N-C WI.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
IT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT SOME GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY COULD APPROACH STORM
FORCE IF THE MODELS WITH THE STRONGER 925MB WINDS ARE CORRECT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 290334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHT`S FCST...WITH MIXED
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED OVER NC/FAR NE WI...AND ISOLD LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS THE S/W
TROF EXITS LATE TONIGHT...BUT LAKE-ENHANCED PCPN WILL CONTINUE
OVER FAR NC WI INTO WEDS MORNING.

AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
SYSTEM...DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO EXPAND THE
AREA OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMS AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL HAZARDS INTO FAR NE
WI. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 40 KTS ON THE
BAY/LAKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A MUCH MORE AUTUMN-LOOK TO THE WEATHER ACROSS NE WI IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A CLOSED UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PULLS DOWN A CHILLY AIR MASS INTO WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS
TO BE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN WI TNGT...AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LATE
TNGT AND CLOUD TREND IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SE
QUEBEC WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED S-SW THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A
SECONDARY TROF STRETCHED WEST ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. VSBL
SATL IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WRN
GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN PLAINS...MAINLY DUE TO A CLOSED UPR LOW
ALOFT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER THESE CLOUDS...THE RADAR
MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHWRS ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS OF MN/WI AND MOST OF UPR MI. TEMPS HAD PEAKED AROUND
MIDDAY AND HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY FALL AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROF...WL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH PCPN CHCS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TNGT. AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE W-NW LATER TNGT...THERE
IS AN INCREASING RISK OF LAKE-ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH
MIGHT BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO VILAS CNTY AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE
LWR 30S. THE REST OF NE WI TO SEE MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S.

LAKE EFFECT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WL LINGER THRU WED MORNING ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI...BUT TEND TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND A WEAK RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES. THE
AIR MASS ALOFT IS STILL QUITE COOL (8H TEMPS AROUND -2C)...THUS
ANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER WOULD TEND TO FILL IN WITH A
CU FIELD. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WED WITH
MAX TEMPS A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER (LWR 40S N-CNTRL
WI...NEAR 50 DEGS E-CNTRL WI).

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE MAIN
CONCERN.

A SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
STATE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW GOING FOR NORTHERN
VILAS COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
RETURN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORIES. PCPN CHCS WILL BE GREATEST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROF...CONTINUED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...
AND EVENTUALLY SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.
PCPN TYPE WILL BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTH. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY END AFTER THE S/W TROF EXITS LATER TONIGHT. LINGERING
LAKE-EFFECT PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER NC WI BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL WI WEDS EVG...
AND MAY BRING PARTIAL CLEARING AT AUW/CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 290215
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
915 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHT`S FCST...WITH MIXED
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED OVER NC/FAR NE WI...AND ISOLD LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. PCPN WILL DIMINISH AS THE S/W
TROF EXITS LATE TONIGHT...BUT LAKE-ENHANCED PCPN WILL CONTINUE
OVER FAR NC WI INTO WEDS MORNING.

AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
SYSTEM...DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO EXPAND THE
AREA OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMS AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL HAZARDS INTO FAR NE
WI. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 40 KTS ON THE
BAY/LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A MUCH MORE AUTUMN-LOOK TO THE WEATHER ACROSS NE WI IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A CLOSED UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PULLS DOWN A CHILLY AIR MASS INTO WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS
TO BE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN WI TNGT...AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LATE
TNGT AND CLOUD TREND IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SE
QUEBEC WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED S-SW THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A
SECONDARY TROF STRETCHED WEST ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. VSBL
SATL IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WRN
GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN PLAINS...MAINLY DUE TO A CLOSED UPR LOW
ALOFT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER THESE CLOUDS...THE RADAR
MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHWRS ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS OF MN/WI AND MOST OF UPR MI. TEMPS HAD PEAKED AROUND
MIDDAY AND HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY FALL AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROF...WL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH PCPN CHCS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TNGT. AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE W-NW LATER TNGT...THERE
IS AN INCREASING RISK OF LAKE-ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH
MIGHT BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO VILAS CNTY AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE
LWR 30S. THE REST OF NE WI TO SEE MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S.

LAKE EFFECT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WL LINGER THRU WED MORNING ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI...BUT TEND TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND A WEAK RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES. THE
AIR MASS ALOFT IS STILL QUITE COOL (8H TEMPS AROUND -2C)...THUS
ANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER WOULD TEND TO FILL IN WITH A
CU FIELD. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WED WITH
MAX TEMPS A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER (LWR 40S N-CNTRL
WI...NEAR 50 DEGS E-CNTRL WI).

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE MAIN
CONCERN.

A SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
STATE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW GOING FOR NORTHERN
VILAS COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
RETURN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST THRU TNGT AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORIES UNTIL A WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES CENTRAL WI WED AFTERNOON. PCPN CHCS WILL BE GREATEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-
WAVE TROF...CONTINUED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...AND EVENTUALLY SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. LIGHTER SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. LINGERING
LAKE-EFFECT PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER NC WI BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 282347
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
647 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A MUCH MORE AUTUMN-LOOK TO THE WEATHER ACROSS NE WI IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A CLOSED UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PULLS DOWN A CHILLY AIR MASS INTO WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS
TO BE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN WI TNGT...AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LATE
TNGT AND CLOUD TREND IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SE
QUEBEC WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED S-SW THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A
SECONDARY TROF STRETCHED WEST ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. VSBL
SATL IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WRN
GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN PLAINS...MAINLY DUE TO A CLOSED UPR LOW
ALOFT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER THESE CLOUDS...THE RADAR
MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHWRS ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS OF MN/WI AND MOST OF UPR MI. TEMPS HAD PEAKED AROUND
MIDDAY AND HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY FALL AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROF...WL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH PCPN CHCS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TNGT. AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE W-NW LATER TNGT...THERE
IS AN INCREASING RISK OF LAKE-ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH
MIGHT BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO VILAS CNTY AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE
LWR 30S. THE REST OF NE WI TO SEE MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S.

LAKE EFFECT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WL LINGER THRU WED MORNING ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI...BUT TEND TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND A WEAK RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES. THE
AIR MASS ALOFT IS STILL QUITE COOL (8H TEMPS AROUND -2C)...THUS
ANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER WOULD TEND TO FILL IN WITH A
CU FIELD. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WED WITH
MAX TEMPS A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER (LWR 40S N-CNTRL
WI...NEAR 50 DEGS E-CNTRL WI).

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE MAIN
CONCERN.

A SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
STATE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW GOING FOR NORTHERN
VILAS COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
RETURN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST THRU TNGT AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORIES UNTIL A WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES CENTRAL WI WED AFTERNOON. PCPN CHCS WILL BE GREATEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-
WAVE TROF...CONTINUED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...AND EVENTUALLY SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. LIGHTER SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. LINGERING
LAKE-EFFECT PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER NC WI BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 282004
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A MUCH MORE AUTUMN-LOOK TO THE WEATHER ACROSS NE WI IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A CLOSED UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PULLS DOWN A CHILLY AIR MASS INTO WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS
TO BE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN WI TNGT...AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LATE
TNGT AND CLOUD TREND IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SE
QUEBEC WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED S-SW THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A
SECONDARY TROF STRETCHED WEST ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. VSBL
SATL IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WRN
GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN PLAINS...MAINLY DUE TO A CLOSED UPR LOW
ALOFT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER THESE CLOUDS...THE RADAR
MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHWRS ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS OF MN/WI AND MOST OF UPR MI. TEMPS HAD PEAKED AROUND
MIDDAY AND HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY FALL AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROF...WL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH PCPN CHCS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TNGT. AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE W-NW LATER TNGT...THERE
IS AN INCREASING RISK OF LAKE-ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH
MIGHT BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO VILAS CNTY AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE
LWR 30S. THE REST OF NE WI TO SEE MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S.

LAKE EFFECT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WL LINGER THRU WED MORNING ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI...BUT TEND TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND A WEAK RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES. THE
AIR MASS ALOFT IS STILL QUITE COOL (8H TEMPS AROUND -2C)...THUS
ANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER WOULD TEND TO FILL IN WITH A
CU FIELD. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WED WITH
MAX TEMPS A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER (LWR 40S N-CNTRL
WI...NEAR 50 DEGS E-CNTRL WI).

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE MAIN
CONCERN.

A SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
STATE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW GOING FOR NORTHERN
VILAS COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
RETURN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A STRONG UPR LOW PRES SYSTEM
MOVING INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WL PERSIST THRU TNGT
INTO AT LEAST WED MORNING. CIGS TO BE HIGHER END MVFR/LOW-END VFR
CATEGORIES UNTIL A WEAK RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON
AND CIGS SHOULD RISE INTO VFR. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE RELEGATED
MAINLY TO NRN WI AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES
TNGT AS TEMPS DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A TREND TOWARD DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WED AFTERNOON THRU WED NGT BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH PCPN CHCS ON THU.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 281739
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1239 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY RESULTING
IN A COUPLE VERY CHILLY DAYS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLITUDE WILL PEAK EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...
THEN DECREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGHOUT.

TEMPS WL TREND DOWNWARD THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BOTTOMING OUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BEFORE REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO
NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA WL BE POSITIONED IN THE NWLY UPR
FLOW BTWN THE LNGWV RIDGE APPROACHING FM THE W AND THE UPR TROF
DEEPENING TO THE E...SO PCPN AMNTS WL BE MODEST AT BEST. THE NEXT
CHC FOR MORE SIG PCPN WL COME LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
PASSES OFF TO THE E AS THE NEXT UPR TROF BEGINS TO APPROACH FM
THE W.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS EXITING THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A DOWNTURN IN
TEMPS. FRONTAL WV RACING NEWD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WL CONSOLIDATE
WITH CYCLONE BACK OVER SW ONTARIO...GENERATING GUSTY WLY WINDS
ACRS THE AREA. THE REALLY CHILLY AIR IS BACK TO THE NW OF THE
ONTARIO CYCLONE...SO THOUGH IT WL BE COOLER THAN YDA...TEMPS TDA
SHOULD STILL WARM TO NR OR JUST ABV NORMAL. WENT WITH BLEND OF THE
BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS. DRY SLOT WL
SHIFT ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
ARND THE CYCLONE WL SPREAD CLDS BACK ESE ACRS THE AREA. SCT LGT
PCPN FM MN/THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO LIKELY WORK BACK INTO N-C WI BY
AFTN.

BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WAS A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREV FCST FOR MIN TEMPS TNGT. THAT MAY NOT BE A
BAD IDEA GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLD COVER AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY
UP GIVEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WITH THE CAA. TEMPS
WL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF PCPN ACRS THE N.

QUIETER WX WL RETURN WED AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FM THE W. COOLER
AIR WL BE IN PLACE...LEADING TO TEMPS NR OR A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. FIRST REAL TASTE OF WINTER
EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF
THE SEASON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN RETURN TO NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES (ONLY FLURRIES OVERNIGHT). A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE MODELS
BRING A SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE BIG CHANGE WILL COME THURSDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEPENING LAKE TO 850MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG OR
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD MORE PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VERY FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
HARD FREEZE TO THE REGION AND THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF FOR DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IF CLOUD COVER IS NOT
TOO THICK.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A STRONG UPR LOW PRES SYSTEM
MOVING INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WL PERSIST THRU TNGT
INTO AT LEAST WED MORNING. CIGS TO BE HIGHER END MVFR/LOW-END VFR
CATEGORIES UNTIL A WEAK RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON
AND CIGS SHOULD RISE INTO VFR. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE RELEGATED
MAINLY TO NRN WI AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES
TNGT AS TEMPS DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A TREND TOWARD DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WED AFTERNOON THRU WED NGT BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH PCPN CHCS ON THU.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 280919
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
419 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY RESULTING
IN A COUPLE VERY CHILLY DAYS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLITUDE WILL PEAK EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...
THEN DECREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGHOUT.

TEMPS WL TREND DOWNWARD THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BOTTOMING OUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BEFORE REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO
NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA WL BE POSITIONED IN THE NWLY UPR
FLOW BTWN THE LNGWV RIDGE APPROACHING FM THE W AND THE UPR TROF
DEEPENING TO THE E...SO PCPN AMNTS WL BE MODEST AT BEST. THE NEXT
CHC FOR MORE SIG PCPN WL COME LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
PASSES OFF TO THE E AS THE NEXT UPR TROF BEGINS TO APPROACH FM
THE W.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS EXITING THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A DOWNTURN IN
TEMPS. FRONTAL WV RACING NEWD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WL CONSOLIDATE
WITH CYCLONE BACK OVER SW ONTARIO...GENERATING GUSTY WLY WINDS
ACRS THE AREA. THE REALLY CHILLY AIR IS BACK TO THE NW OF THE
ONTARIO CYCLONE...SO THOUGH IT WL BE COOLER THAN YDA...TEMPS TDA
SHOULD STILL WARM TO NR OR JUST ABV NORMAL. WENT WITH BLEND OF THE
BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS. DRY SLOT WL
SHIFT ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
ARND THE CYCLONE WL SPREAD CLDS BACK ESE ACRS THE AREA. SCT LGT
PCPN FM MN/THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO LIKELY WORK BACK INTO N-C WI BY
AFTN.

BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WAS A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREV FCST FOR MIN TEMPS TNGT. THAT MAY NOT BE A
BAD IDEA GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLD COVER AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY
UP GIVEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WITH THE CAA. TEMPS
WL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF PCPN ACRS THE N.

QUIETER WX WL RETURN WED AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FM THE W. COOLER
AIR WL BE IN PLACE...LEADING TO TEMPS NR OR A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. FIRST REAL TASTE OF WINTER
EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF
THE SEASON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN RETURN TO NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES (ONLY FLURRIES OVERNIGHT). A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE MODELS
BRING A SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE BIG CHANGE WILL COME THURSDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEPENING LAKE TO 850MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG OR
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD MORE PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VERY FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
HARD FREEZE TO THE REGION AND THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF FOR DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IF CLOUD COVER IS NOT
TOO THICK.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDTIONS WERE OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ACRS THE NW
PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND SOME IFR CIGS AREA ALSO POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. CIGS WL PROBABLY HOLD UP BETTER IN THE SE PART OF THE AREA.
EXPECT MAINLY LOWER-END VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SOME MVFR CIGS
THERE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 280332
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

AN ENERGETIC 24-HOUR PERIOD COMING UP ACROSS NE WI AS A CDFNT
SWEEPS THRU THE AREA TNGT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR TUE. MAIN FCST CHALLENGES TO BE
THE EXTENT OF PCPN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT AND HOW FAR
SOUTH TO TAKE PCPN CHCS ON TUE.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES OF NE IA
WITH AN INVERTED TROF N-NW TO ANOTHER LOW PRES OVER EXTREME WRN
ONTARIO. A WRMFNT EXTENDED NE FROM THE IA LOW THRU E-CNTRL WI WITH
TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SOARING PAST 70 DEGS. A CDFNT
STRETCHED SW FROM THE IA LOW THRU THE SRN PLAINS. PCPN WAS MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY/MIDWEST BETWEEN THE CDFNT AND
AN APPROACHING UPR TROF LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS. PCPN WAS MORE
ISOLATED OVER FAR NE WI JUST NORTH OF THE WRMFNT.

A MORE GENERAL PCPN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW CONTS TO TRACK NE INTO E-CNTRL WI BY
06Z TUE AND ERN UPR MI BY 12Z TUE. THE CDFNT WL SWEEP THRU ALL BUT
THE LAKESHORE AREAS BY MIDNGT AND WL HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MINOR (ROUGHLY 0.10-0.25") DUE TO BETTER MID-LEVEL FORCING
TRAILING THE CDFNT OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF. PCPN TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS ALL THE MDLS BRING A DRY SLOT INTO THE SW
QUADRANT OF THE STATE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR 40S N-CNTRL
WI...TO AROUND 50 DEGS E-CNTRL WI.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS THRU WI TUE MORNING WITH THE DRY SLOT
SHIFTING INTO ERN WI. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED TUE MORNING WITH GUSTS > 30 MPH AT TIMES UNDER
THIS DRY SLOT. BY TUE AFTERNOON...THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO BE
UNDER A COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IMPACTING
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. CANNOT RULE OUT A CHC OF RAIN SHWRS
THRU THE DAY ACROSS NRN WI...WHILE SRN SECTIONS TO STAY DRY WITH A
FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AT TIMES. CAA TO ALREADY BE UNDER WAY TUE
MORNING WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -1 TO -3C RANGE BY 00Z WED.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S N-CNTRL...TO THE MID
50S E-CNTRL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRAG A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A FOCUS OF CONVECTION IN
ADDITION TO THE WRAP AROUND PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH. CAA WITH THE
WRAP AROUND WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT MIX ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WED
NIGHT.

WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME PROGS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES OVER THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG A STRONGER S/W TROUGH TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL INCLUDE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10 C BY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GOING FORECAST OF A
SHOWER MIX TURNING TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS REASONABLE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WORKS INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY AROUND MIDDAY
TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE SHOWERS AND OCNL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH VFR CIGS MAINLY 3500-5000 FT AGL.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD ON TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








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