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000
FXUS63 KGRB 041101
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
601 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS CAUSED WIDESPREAD FOG WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME STRATUS
ADVECTING WEST OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEING THE MOST FOG PRONE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS
WAS THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE
LOWER DEW POINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE
WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
FORECAST.

A PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE NWP MODELS DO NOT PICK ON THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO DO A
BETTER JOB CAPTURING THIS AS THEY BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE APPEARS TO BE A RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR BY
SATURDAY...WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOOK TO THE SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE LOW
CHANCY POPS IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON IF AND WHEN STORMS
ARRIVE...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE 30 POPS AND PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL LEAVE THE FOG IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
MORNING...CLEARING DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND +20 CELSIUS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A SHIFT IN THE 500MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
EASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THEN RETURN
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. IF THICKER CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO LABOR DAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHAT WILL HAPPEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE CANADIAN/GFS PUSH FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRY
PERIOD. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHARE THIS SOLUTION...THUS WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. THESE
DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY AS WELL. IF ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT...WOULD NEED
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE LATEST
FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CAUSED CONDITIONS TO FALL TO LIFR
AT RHI...WHILE AN IFR STRATUS DECK HAS KEPT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
AT VFR VISIBILITITIES. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AUW/CWA HAVE BOUNCED
BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DEPENDING ON THE HOUR. IT SHOULD TAKE MUCH OF
THE MORNING FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE FOG AND
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE EAST. OTHER THAN THE FOG TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THIS SET
OF TAFS. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE FOG
PRONE RHI/CWA AIRPORTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 041101
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
601 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS CAUSED WIDESPREAD FOG WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME STRATUS
ADVECTING WEST OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEING THE MOST FOG PRONE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS
WAS THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE
LOWER DEW POINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE
WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
FORECAST.

A PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE NWP MODELS DO NOT PICK ON THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO DO A
BETTER JOB CAPTURING THIS AS THEY BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE APPEARS TO BE A RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR BY
SATURDAY...WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOOK TO THE SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE LOW
CHANCY POPS IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON IF AND WHEN STORMS
ARRIVE...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE 30 POPS AND PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL LEAVE THE FOG IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
MORNING...CLEARING DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND +20 CELSIUS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A SHIFT IN THE 500MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
EASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THEN RETURN
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. IF THICKER CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO LABOR DAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHAT WILL HAPPEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE CANADIAN/GFS PUSH FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRY
PERIOD. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHARE THIS SOLUTION...THUS WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. THESE
DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY AS WELL. IF ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT...WOULD NEED
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE LATEST
FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CAUSED CONDITIONS TO FALL TO LIFR
AT RHI...WHILE AN IFR STRATUS DECK HAS KEPT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
AT VFR VISIBILITITIES. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AUW/CWA HAVE BOUNCED
BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DEPENDING ON THE HOUR. IT SHOULD TAKE MUCH OF
THE MORNING FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE FOG AND
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE EAST. OTHER THAN THE FOG TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THIS SET
OF TAFS. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE FOG
PRONE RHI/CWA AIRPORTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 040746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS CAUSED WIDESPREAD FOG WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME STRATUS
ADVECTING WEST OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEING THE MOST FOG PRONE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS
WAS THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE
LOWER DEW POINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE
WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
FORECAST.

A PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE NWP MODELS DO NOT PICK ON THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO DO A
BETTER JOB CAPTURING THIS AS THEY BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE APPEARS TO BE A RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR BY
SATURDAY...WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOOK TO THE SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE LOW
CHANCY POPS IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON IF AND WHEN STORMS
ARRIVE...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE 30 POPS AND PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL LEAVE THE FOG IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
MORNING...CLEARING DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND +20 CELSIUS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A SHIFT IN THE 500MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
EASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THEN RETURN
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. IF THICKER CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO LABOR DAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHAT WILL HAPPEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE CANADIAN/GFS PUSH FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRY
PERIOD. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHARE THIS SOLUTION...THUS WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. THESE
DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY AS WELL. IF ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT...WOULD NEED
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE LATEST
FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S...PATCHY FOG ALREADY SHOWING UP LATE THIS EVENING.
PATCHES OF STRATUS WERE ALSO NOTED. ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
MORNING IF NOT ALL TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 040746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS CAUSED WIDESPREAD FOG WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME STRATUS
ADVECTING WEST OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEING THE MOST FOG PRONE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS
WAS THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE
LOWER DEW POINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE
WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
FORECAST.

A PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE NWP MODELS DO NOT PICK ON THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO DO A
BETTER JOB CAPTURING THIS AS THEY BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE APPEARS TO BE A RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR BY
SATURDAY...WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOOK TO THE SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE LOW
CHANCY POPS IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON IF AND WHEN STORMS
ARRIVE...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE 30 POPS AND PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL LEAVE THE FOG IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
MORNING...CLEARING DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND +20 CELSIUS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A SHIFT IN THE 500MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
EASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THEN RETURN
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. IF THICKER CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO LABOR DAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHAT WILL HAPPEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE CANADIAN/GFS PUSH FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRY
PERIOD. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHARE THIS SOLUTION...THUS WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. THESE
DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY AS WELL. IF ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT...WOULD NEED
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE LATEST
FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S...PATCHY FOG ALREADY SHOWING UP LATE THIS EVENING.
PATCHES OF STRATUS WERE ALSO NOTED. ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
MORNING IF NOT ALL TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 040746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS CAUSED WIDESPREAD FOG WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME STRATUS
ADVECTING WEST OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEING THE MOST FOG PRONE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS
WAS THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE
LOWER DEW POINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TODAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE
WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
FORECAST.

A PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE NWP MODELS DO NOT PICK ON THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO DO A
BETTER JOB CAPTURING THIS AS THEY BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE APPEARS TO BE A RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR BY
SATURDAY...WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOOK TO THE SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE LOW
CHANCY POPS IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON IF AND WHEN STORMS
ARRIVE...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE 30 POPS AND PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL LEAVE THE FOG IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
MORNING...CLEARING DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVE. THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND +20 CELSIUS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A SHIFT IN THE 500MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
EASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THEN RETURN
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. IF THICKER CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO LABOR DAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHAT WILL HAPPEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE CANADIAN/GFS PUSH FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRY
PERIOD. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHARE THIS SOLUTION...THUS WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. THESE
DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY AS WELL. IF ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT...WOULD NEED
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE LATEST
FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S...PATCHY FOG ALREADY SHOWING UP LATE THIS EVENING.
PATCHES OF STRATUS WERE ALSO NOTED. ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
MORNING IF NOT ALL TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 040331
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1031 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

REMAINING HUMID AND TURNING VERY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. AS THE WRN TROF SHARPENS/DEEPENS SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL BUILD NEWD INTO
ONTARIO. THE PATTERN WL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK
AS THE ENERGY FM THE WRN TROF EJECTS/SHEARS ENEWD INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION BACK
TO A PATTERN WITH RIDGING NR THE COASTS AND A BROAD TROF OVER
CENTRAL NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPR PATTERN WL KEEP HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO VERY
WARM LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE UNTIL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN WEATHER FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THOUGH...NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED TO THE CWA.

MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT IS OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA...HOWEVER ITS EFFECTS CAN STILL BE FELT AS TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ARE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS NOT
HELPED OUR TEMPERATURES EITHER...WITH ONLY NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SEEING PEAKS OF SUN BASED ON THE TREND ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE PUSHES
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE STUCK JUST TO OUR
EAST...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. HESITATED TO PUT IN ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WE
DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOST. DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT WE DID NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

OTHER THAN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...FOG SHOULD LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ERODES. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT THE EAST TO SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN.

THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE HI- RES
MODELS HAD ANY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...AND THESE MODELS DID THE BEST
WITH HANDLING TODAYS LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MODERATE FORCING MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...IT WONT TAKE A LOT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
ADD IN SOME WEAK MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FELT IT WAS WORTH KEEPING POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE A DRIER TREND ON SOME OF THE HI- RES MODELS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH TOOK
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY DOWN A BIT PER GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FCST AREA WL REMAIN WITHIN UPR RIDGE POSN. BUT WITH WK UPPER
CIRCULATION/SHEAR AXIS HANGING BACK INTO THE FCST ARE FM THE
E...IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY/
DIFFICULTY IN PINNING DOWN PCPN CHCS IN THIS PATTERN...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST FRI NGT-SAT NGT. BY
SUN...BEST PCPN CHCS SHOULD GET FOCUSED BACK W NEAR THE ADVANCING
FRONT...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT THAT PCPN MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH E TO
AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS ANOTHER QUESTION. FEELING IS THAT FRONT WL
PROBABLY SLOW AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE. PULLED
PCPN FM THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA FOR NOW...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY NEED TO DELAY PCPN FURTHER.

FOG WL CONT TO BE AN ISSUE AT NGT...ESP FRI NGT WHEN WINDS WL BE
LIGHTER. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS FOR TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S...PATCHY FOG ALREADY SHOWING UP LATE THIS EVENING.
PATCHES OF STRATUS WERE ALSO NOTED. ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
MORNING IF NOT ALL TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 040331
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1031 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

REMAINING HUMID AND TURNING VERY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. AS THE WRN TROF SHARPENS/DEEPENS SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL BUILD NEWD INTO
ONTARIO. THE PATTERN WL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK
AS THE ENERGY FM THE WRN TROF EJECTS/SHEARS ENEWD INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION BACK
TO A PATTERN WITH RIDGING NR THE COASTS AND A BROAD TROF OVER
CENTRAL NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPR PATTERN WL KEEP HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO VERY
WARM LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE UNTIL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN WEATHER FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THOUGH...NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED TO THE CWA.

MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT IS OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA...HOWEVER ITS EFFECTS CAN STILL BE FELT AS TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ARE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS NOT
HELPED OUR TEMPERATURES EITHER...WITH ONLY NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SEEING PEAKS OF SUN BASED ON THE TREND ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE PUSHES
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE STUCK JUST TO OUR
EAST...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. HESITATED TO PUT IN ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WE
DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOST. DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT WE DID NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

OTHER THAN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...FOG SHOULD LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ERODES. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT THE EAST TO SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN.

THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE HI- RES
MODELS HAD ANY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...AND THESE MODELS DID THE BEST
WITH HANDLING TODAYS LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MODERATE FORCING MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...IT WONT TAKE A LOT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
ADD IN SOME WEAK MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FELT IT WAS WORTH KEEPING POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE A DRIER TREND ON SOME OF THE HI- RES MODELS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH TOOK
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY DOWN A BIT PER GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FCST AREA WL REMAIN WITHIN UPR RIDGE POSN. BUT WITH WK UPPER
CIRCULATION/SHEAR AXIS HANGING BACK INTO THE FCST ARE FM THE
E...IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY/
DIFFICULTY IN PINNING DOWN PCPN CHCS IN THIS PATTERN...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST FRI NGT-SAT NGT. BY
SUN...BEST PCPN CHCS SHOULD GET FOCUSED BACK W NEAR THE ADVANCING
FRONT...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT THAT PCPN MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH E TO
AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS ANOTHER QUESTION. FEELING IS THAT FRONT WL
PROBABLY SLOW AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE. PULLED
PCPN FM THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA FOR NOW...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY NEED TO DELAY PCPN FURTHER.

FOG WL CONT TO BE AN ISSUE AT NGT...ESP FRI NGT WHEN WINDS WL BE
LIGHTER. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS FOR TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S...PATCHY FOG ALREADY SHOWING UP LATE THIS EVENING.
PATCHES OF STRATUS WERE ALSO NOTED. ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
MORNING IF NOT ALL TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 032218
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
518 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

REMAINING HUMID AND TURNING VERY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. AS THE WRN TROF SHARPENS/DEEPENS SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL BUILD NEWD INTO
ONTARIO. THE PATTERN WL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK
AS THE ENERGY FM THE WRN TROF EJECTS/SHEARS ENEWD INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION BACK
TO A PATTERN WITH RIDGING NR THE COASTS AND A BROAD TROF OVER
CENTRAL NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPR PATTERN WL KEEP HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO VERY
WARM LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE UNTIL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN WEATHER FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THOUGH...NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED TO THE CWA.

MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT IS OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA...HOWEVER ITS EFFECTS CAN STILL BE FELT AS TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ARE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS NOT
HELPED OUR TEMPERATURES EITHER...WITH ONLY NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SEEING PEAKS OF SUN BASED ON THE TREND ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE PUSHES
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE STUCK JUST TO OUR
EAST...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. HESITATED TO PUT IN ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WE
DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOST. DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT WE DID NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

OTHER THAN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...FOG SHOULD LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ERODES. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT THE EAST TO SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN.

THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE HI- RES
MODELS HAD ANY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...AND THESE MODELS DID THE BEST
WITH HANDLING TODAYS LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MODERATE FORCING MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...IT WONT TAKE A LOT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
ADD IN SOME WEAK MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FELT IT WAS WORTH KEEPING POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE A DRIER TREND ON SOME OF THE HI- RES MODELS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH TOOK
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY DOWN A BIT PER GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FCST AREA WL REMAIN WITHIN UPR RIDGE POSN. BUT WITH WK UPPER
CIRCULATION/SHEAR AXIS HANGING BACK INTO THE FCST ARE FM THE
E...IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY/
DIFFICULTY IN PINNING DOWN PCPN CHCS IN THIS PATTERN...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST FRI NGT-SAT NGT. BY
SUN...BEST PCPN CHCS SHOULD GET FOCUSED BACK W NEAR THE ADVANCING
FRONT...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT THAT PCPN MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH E TO
AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS ANOTHER QUESTION. FEELING IS THAT FRONT WL
PROBABLY SLOW AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE. PULLED
PCPN FM THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA FOR NOW...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY NEED TO DELAY PCPN FURTHER.

FOG WL CONT TO BE AN ISSUE AT NGT...ESP FRI NGT WHEN WINDS WL BE
LIGHTER. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS FOR TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 518 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE TRENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE MVFR CIGS EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INDICATE
MAINLY VFR CIGS. WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO PRODUCE ARES OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS...WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING IF NOT ALL TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 032218
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
518 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

REMAINING HUMID AND TURNING VERY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. AS THE WRN TROF SHARPENS/DEEPENS SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL BUILD NEWD INTO
ONTARIO. THE PATTERN WL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK
AS THE ENERGY FM THE WRN TROF EJECTS/SHEARS ENEWD INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION BACK
TO A PATTERN WITH RIDGING NR THE COASTS AND A BROAD TROF OVER
CENTRAL NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPR PATTERN WL KEEP HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO VERY
WARM LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE UNTIL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN WEATHER FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THOUGH...NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED TO THE CWA.

MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT IS OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA...HOWEVER ITS EFFECTS CAN STILL BE FELT AS TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ARE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS NOT
HELPED OUR TEMPERATURES EITHER...WITH ONLY NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SEEING PEAKS OF SUN BASED ON THE TREND ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE PUSHES
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE STUCK JUST TO OUR
EAST...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. HESITATED TO PUT IN ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WE
DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOST. DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT WE DID NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

OTHER THAN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...FOG SHOULD LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ERODES. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT THE EAST TO SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN.

THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE HI- RES
MODELS HAD ANY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...AND THESE MODELS DID THE BEST
WITH HANDLING TODAYS LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MODERATE FORCING MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...IT WONT TAKE A LOT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
ADD IN SOME WEAK MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FELT IT WAS WORTH KEEPING POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE A DRIER TREND ON SOME OF THE HI- RES MODELS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH TOOK
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY DOWN A BIT PER GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FCST AREA WL REMAIN WITHIN UPR RIDGE POSN. BUT WITH WK UPPER
CIRCULATION/SHEAR AXIS HANGING BACK INTO THE FCST ARE FM THE
E...IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY/
DIFFICULTY IN PINNING DOWN PCPN CHCS IN THIS PATTERN...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST FRI NGT-SAT NGT. BY
SUN...BEST PCPN CHCS SHOULD GET FOCUSED BACK W NEAR THE ADVANCING
FRONT...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT THAT PCPN MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH E TO
AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS ANOTHER QUESTION. FEELING IS THAT FRONT WL
PROBABLY SLOW AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE. PULLED
PCPN FM THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA FOR NOW...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY NEED TO DELAY PCPN FURTHER.

FOG WL CONT TO BE AN ISSUE AT NGT...ESP FRI NGT WHEN WINDS WL BE
LIGHTER. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS FOR TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 518 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE TRENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE MVFR CIGS EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INDICATE
MAINLY VFR CIGS. WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO PRODUCE ARES OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS...WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING IF NOT ALL TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 032218
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
518 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

REMAINING HUMID AND TURNING VERY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. AS THE WRN TROF SHARPENS/DEEPENS SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL BUILD NEWD INTO
ONTARIO. THE PATTERN WL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK
AS THE ENERGY FM THE WRN TROF EJECTS/SHEARS ENEWD INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION BACK
TO A PATTERN WITH RIDGING NR THE COASTS AND A BROAD TROF OVER
CENTRAL NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPR PATTERN WL KEEP HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO VERY
WARM LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE UNTIL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN WEATHER FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THOUGH...NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED TO THE CWA.

MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT IS OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA...HOWEVER ITS EFFECTS CAN STILL BE FELT AS TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ARE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS NOT
HELPED OUR TEMPERATURES EITHER...WITH ONLY NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SEEING PEAKS OF SUN BASED ON THE TREND ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE PUSHES
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE STUCK JUST TO OUR
EAST...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. HESITATED TO PUT IN ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WE
DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOST. DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT WE DID NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

OTHER THAN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...FOG SHOULD LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ERODES. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT THE EAST TO SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN.

THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE HI- RES
MODELS HAD ANY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...AND THESE MODELS DID THE BEST
WITH HANDLING TODAYS LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MODERATE FORCING MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...IT WONT TAKE A LOT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
ADD IN SOME WEAK MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FELT IT WAS WORTH KEEPING POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE A DRIER TREND ON SOME OF THE HI- RES MODELS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH TOOK
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY DOWN A BIT PER GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FCST AREA WL REMAIN WITHIN UPR RIDGE POSN. BUT WITH WK UPPER
CIRCULATION/SHEAR AXIS HANGING BACK INTO THE FCST ARE FM THE
E...IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY/
DIFFICULTY IN PINNING DOWN PCPN CHCS IN THIS PATTERN...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST FRI NGT-SAT NGT. BY
SUN...BEST PCPN CHCS SHOULD GET FOCUSED BACK W NEAR THE ADVANCING
FRONT...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT THAT PCPN MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH E TO
AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS ANOTHER QUESTION. FEELING IS THAT FRONT WL
PROBABLY SLOW AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE. PULLED
PCPN FM THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA FOR NOW...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY NEED TO DELAY PCPN FURTHER.

FOG WL CONT TO BE AN ISSUE AT NGT...ESP FRI NGT WHEN WINDS WL BE
LIGHTER. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS FOR TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 518 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE TRENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE MVFR CIGS EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INDICATE
MAINLY VFR CIGS. WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO PRODUCE ARES OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS...WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING IF NOT ALL TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 032218
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
518 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

REMAINING HUMID AND TURNING VERY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. AS THE WRN TROF SHARPENS/DEEPENS SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL BUILD NEWD INTO
ONTARIO. THE PATTERN WL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK
AS THE ENERGY FM THE WRN TROF EJECTS/SHEARS ENEWD INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION BACK
TO A PATTERN WITH RIDGING NR THE COASTS AND A BROAD TROF OVER
CENTRAL NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPR PATTERN WL KEEP HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO VERY
WARM LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE UNTIL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN WEATHER FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THOUGH...NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED TO THE CWA.

MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT IS OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA...HOWEVER ITS EFFECTS CAN STILL BE FELT AS TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ARE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS NOT
HELPED OUR TEMPERATURES EITHER...WITH ONLY NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SEEING PEAKS OF SUN BASED ON THE TREND ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE PUSHES
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE STUCK JUST TO OUR
EAST...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. HESITATED TO PUT IN ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WE
DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOST. DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT WE DID NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

OTHER THAN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...FOG SHOULD LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ERODES. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT THE EAST TO SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN.

THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE HI- RES
MODELS HAD ANY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...AND THESE MODELS DID THE BEST
WITH HANDLING TODAYS LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MODERATE FORCING MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...IT WONT TAKE A LOT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
ADD IN SOME WEAK MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FELT IT WAS WORTH KEEPING POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE A DRIER TREND ON SOME OF THE HI- RES MODELS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH TOOK
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY DOWN A BIT PER GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FCST AREA WL REMAIN WITHIN UPR RIDGE POSN. BUT WITH WK UPPER
CIRCULATION/SHEAR AXIS HANGING BACK INTO THE FCST ARE FM THE
E...IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY/
DIFFICULTY IN PINNING DOWN PCPN CHCS IN THIS PATTERN...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST FRI NGT-SAT NGT. BY
SUN...BEST PCPN CHCS SHOULD GET FOCUSED BACK W NEAR THE ADVANCING
FRONT...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT THAT PCPN MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH E TO
AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS ANOTHER QUESTION. FEELING IS THAT FRONT WL
PROBABLY SLOW AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE. PULLED
PCPN FM THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA FOR NOW...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY NEED TO DELAY PCPN FURTHER.

FOG WL CONT TO BE AN ISSUE AT NGT...ESP FRI NGT WHEN WINDS WL BE
LIGHTER. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS FOR TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 518 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE TRENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE MVFR CIGS EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INDICATE
MAINLY VFR CIGS. WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO PRODUCE ARES OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS...WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING IF NOT ALL TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 031923
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

REMAINING HUMID AND TURNING VERY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. AS THE WRN TROF SHARPENS/DEEPENS SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL BUILD NEWD INTO
ONTARIO. THE PATTERN WL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK
AS THE ENERGY FM THE WRN TROF EJECTS/SHEARS ENEWD INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION BACK
TO A PATTERN WITH RIDGING NR THE COASTS AND A BROAD TROF OVER
CENTRAL NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPR PATTERN WL KEEP HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO VERY
WARM LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE UNTIL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN WEATHER FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THOUGH...NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED TO THE CWA.

MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT IS OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA...HOWEVER ITS EFFECTS CAN STILL BE FELT AS TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ARE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS NOT
HELPED OUR TEMPERATURES EITHER...WITH ONLY NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SEEING PEAKS OF SUN BASED ON THE TREND ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE PUSHES
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE STUCK JUST TO OUR
EAST...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. HESITATED TO PUT IN ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WE
DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOST. DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT WE DID NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

OTHER THAN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...FOG SHOULD LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ERODES. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT THE EAST TO SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN.

THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE HI- RES
MODELS HAD ANY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...AND THESE MODELS DID THE BEST
WITH HANDLING TODAYS LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MODERATE FORCING MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...IT WONT TAKE A LOT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
ADD IN SOME WEAK MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FELT IT WAS WORTH KEEPING POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE A DRIER TREND ON SOME OF THE HI- RES MODELS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH TOOK
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY DOWN A BIT PER GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FCST AREA WL REMAIN WITHIN UPR RIDGE POSN. BUT WITH WK UPPER
CIRCULATION/SHEAR AXIS HANGING BACK INTO THE FCST ARE FM THE
E...IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY/
DIFFICULTY IN PINNING DOWN PCPN CHCS IN THIS PATTERN...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST FRI NGT-SAT NGT. BY
SUN...BEST PCPN CHCS SHOULD GET FOCUSED BACK W NEAR THE ADVANCING
FRONT...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT THAT PCPN MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH E TO
AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS ANOTHER QUESTION. FEELING IS THAT FRONT WL
PROBABLY SLOW AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE. PULLED
PCPN FM THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA FOR NOW...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY NEED TO DELAY PCPN FURTHER.

FOG WL CONT TO BE AN ISSUE AT NGT...ESP FRI NGT WHEN WINDS WL BE
LIGHTER. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS FOR TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS TODAY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE IN THIS VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. EXPECT THE CURRENT IFR TO MVFR CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 031923
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

REMAINING HUMID AND TURNING VERY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. AS THE WRN TROF SHARPENS/DEEPENS SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL BUILD NEWD INTO
ONTARIO. THE PATTERN WL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK
AS THE ENERGY FM THE WRN TROF EJECTS/SHEARS ENEWD INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION BACK
TO A PATTERN WITH RIDGING NR THE COASTS AND A BROAD TROF OVER
CENTRAL NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPR PATTERN WL KEEP HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO VERY
WARM LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE UNTIL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN WEATHER FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THOUGH...NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED TO THE CWA.

MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT IS OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA...HOWEVER ITS EFFECTS CAN STILL BE FELT AS TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ARE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS NOT
HELPED OUR TEMPERATURES EITHER...WITH ONLY NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SEEING PEAKS OF SUN BASED ON THE TREND ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE PUSHES
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE STUCK JUST TO OUR
EAST...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. HESITATED TO PUT IN ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WE
DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP TODAY...BUT IN GENERALLY THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOST. DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT WE DID NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

OTHER THAN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...FOG SHOULD LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
ERODES. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...SO EXPECT THE EAST TO SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN.

THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE HI- RES
MODELS HAD ANY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...AND THESE MODELS DID THE BEST
WITH HANDLING TODAYS LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MODERATE FORCING MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...IT WONT TAKE A LOT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
ADD IN SOME WEAK MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FELT IT WAS WORTH KEEPING POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE A DRIER TREND ON SOME OF THE HI- RES MODELS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH TOOK
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY DOWN A BIT PER GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FCST AREA WL REMAIN WITHIN UPR RIDGE POSN. BUT WITH WK UPPER
CIRCULATION/SHEAR AXIS HANGING BACK INTO THE FCST ARE FM THE
E...IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY/
DIFFICULTY IN PINNING DOWN PCPN CHCS IN THIS PATTERN...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST FRI NGT-SAT NGT. BY
SUN...BEST PCPN CHCS SHOULD GET FOCUSED BACK W NEAR THE ADVANCING
FRONT...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT THAT PCPN MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH E TO
AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS ANOTHER QUESTION. FEELING IS THAT FRONT WL
PROBABLY SLOW AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE. PULLED
PCPN FM THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA FOR NOW...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY NEED TO DELAY PCPN FURTHER.

FOG WL CONT TO BE AN ISSUE AT NGT...ESP FRI NGT WHEN WINDS WL BE
LIGHTER. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS FOR TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS TODAY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE IN THIS VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. EXPECT THE CURRENT IFR TO MVFR CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 031703
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1203 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS AN AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN TRACKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OUT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY.

A PERUSAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS DOES NOT YIELD TOO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF HELP IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY USEFUL
MODEL IN THE INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPLEX HEADS EAST...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

THIS COMPLEX HAS LAID OUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE INSTABILITY BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS MUCAPES RISE TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES ARE ON TRACK TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
DOES NOT LIGHT THIS BOUNDARY UP UNTIL THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY DESERVE A MENTION OF LOW CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINS...LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER A
LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND 800 MB WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS LIKELY
THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GIVEN
THE CAP IN PLACE.

CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

500MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WITH 500MB TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH A FEW MODELS DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH LITTLE
CIN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SMALL CHANCE
OF STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS TODAY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE IN THIS VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. EXPECT THE CURRENT IFR TO MVFR CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN




000
FXUS63 KGRB 031703
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1203 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS AN AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN TRACKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OUT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY.

A PERUSAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS DOES NOT YIELD TOO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF HELP IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY USEFUL
MODEL IN THE INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPLEX HEADS EAST...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

THIS COMPLEX HAS LAID OUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE INSTABILITY BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS MUCAPES RISE TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES ARE ON TRACK TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
DOES NOT LIGHT THIS BOUNDARY UP UNTIL THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY DESERVE A MENTION OF LOW CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINS...LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER A
LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND 800 MB WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS LIKELY
THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GIVEN
THE CAP IN PLACE.

CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

500MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WITH 500MB TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH A FEW MODELS DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH LITTLE
CIN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SMALL CHANCE
OF STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS TODAY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE IN THIS VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. EXPECT THE CURRENT IFR TO MVFR CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN





000
FXUS63 KGRB 031132
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
632 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS AN AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN TRACKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OUT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY.

A PERUSAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS DOES NOT YIELD TOO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF HELP IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY USEFUL
MODEL IN THE INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPLEX HEADS EAST...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

THIS COMPLEX HAS LAID OUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE INSTABILITY BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS MUCAPES RISE TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES ARE ON TRACK TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
DOES NOT LIGHT THIS BOUNDARY UP UNTIL THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY DESERVE A MENTION OF LOW CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINS...LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER A
LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND 800 MB WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS LIKELY
THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GIVEN
THE CAP IN PLACE.

CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

500MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WITH 500MB TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH A FEW MODELS DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH LITTLE
CIN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SMALL CHANCE
OF STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BRING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE STRATUS GETS MIXED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE CURRENT SET OF TAFS. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL TO CREATE DENSE FOG AT THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 031132
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
632 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS AN AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN TRACKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OUT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY.

A PERUSAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS DOES NOT YIELD TOO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF HELP IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY USEFUL
MODEL IN THE INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPLEX HEADS EAST...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

THIS COMPLEX HAS LAID OUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE INSTABILITY BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS MUCAPES RISE TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES ARE ON TRACK TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
DOES NOT LIGHT THIS BOUNDARY UP UNTIL THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY DESERVE A MENTION OF LOW CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINS...LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER A
LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND 800 MB WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS LIKELY
THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GIVEN
THE CAP IN PLACE.

CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

500MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WITH 500MB TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH A FEW MODELS DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH LITTLE
CIN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SMALL CHANCE
OF STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BRING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE STRATUS GETS MIXED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE CURRENT SET OF TAFS. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL TO CREATE DENSE FOG AT THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 030840
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
340 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS AN AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN TRACKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OUT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY.

A PERUSAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS DOES NOT YIELD TOO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF HELP IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY USEFUL
MODEL IN THE INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPLEX HEADS EAST...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

THIS COMPLEX HAS LAID OUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE INSTABILITY BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS MUCAPES RISE TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES ARE ON TRACK TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
DOES NOT LIGHT THIS BOUNDARY UP UNTIL THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY DESERVE A MENTION OF LOW CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINS...LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER A
LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND 800 MB WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS LIKELY
THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GIVEN
THE CAP IN PLACE.

CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

500MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WITH 500MB TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH A FEW MODELS DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH LITTLE
CIN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SMALL CHANCE
OF STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

OTHERWISE A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SCATTERED IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE CONVECTION LATE
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DENSE FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 030840
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
340 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS AN AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN TRACKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OUT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY.

A PERUSAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS DOES NOT YIELD TOO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF HELP IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY USEFUL
MODEL IN THE INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPLEX HEADS EAST...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL HANDLE ANY FOG WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

THIS COMPLEX HAS LAID OUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE INSTABILITY BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS MUCAPES RISE TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES ARE ON TRACK TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
DOES NOT LIGHT THIS BOUNDARY UP UNTIL THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY DESERVE A MENTION OF LOW CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINS...LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER A
LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND 800 MB WILL MAKE CONVECTION LESS LIKELY
THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GIVEN
THE CAP IN PLACE.

CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

500MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA WITH 500MB TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH A FEW MODELS DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH LITTLE
CIN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SMALL CHANCE
OF STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

OTHERWISE A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SCATTERED IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE CONVECTION LATE
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DENSE FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 030356
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1056 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

OTHERWISE A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SCATTERED IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE CONVECTION LATE
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DENSE FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 030356
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1056 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

OTHERWISE A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SCATTERED IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE CONVECTION LATE
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DENSE FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 022317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SOUTH WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE A SLOW
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
AREAS WHICH REMAIN CLEAR OR OBSERVE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT CAN
EXPECT THE LOWER VSBYS DUE TO FOG. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 022317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SOUTH WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE A SLOW
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
AREAS WHICH REMAIN CLEAR OR OBSERVE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT CAN
EXPECT THE LOWER VSBYS DUE TO FOG. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 022317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SOUTH WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE A SLOW
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
AREAS WHICH REMAIN CLEAR OR OBSERVE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT CAN
EXPECT THE LOWER VSBYS DUE TO FOG. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 022317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SOUTH WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE A SLOW
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
AREAS WHICH REMAIN CLEAR OR OBSERVE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT CAN
EXPECT THE LOWER VSBYS DUE TO FOG. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 022032
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI...COMBINED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WL CONT
TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS TO THE REGION THRU THU
MORNING. INITIAL BAND OF PCPN TO MAINLY REMAIN ACROSS NRN WI WHERE
VSBYS/CIGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY STORMS.
AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH TNGT...FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTS TO
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN IF THE PCPN BECOMES SCATTERED FOR A TIME...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...THUS IF NOT PCPN...THEN AREAS OF FOG WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS BECOME THE PROBLEM. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT
INTO THU MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTS TO SAG SOUTH ON THU...PCPN
CHCS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
DECREASING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO PREVAIL THU
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KALLAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 022032
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI...COMBINED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WL CONT
TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS TO THE REGION THRU THU
MORNING. INITIAL BAND OF PCPN TO MAINLY REMAIN ACROSS NRN WI WHERE
VSBYS/CIGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY STORMS.
AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH TNGT...FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTS TO
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN IF THE PCPN BECOMES SCATTERED FOR A TIME...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...THUS IF NOT PCPN...THEN AREAS OF FOG WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS BECOME THE PROBLEM. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT
INTO THU MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTS TO SAG SOUTH ON THU...PCPN
CHCS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
DECREASING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO PREVAIL THU
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KALLAS





000
FXUS63 KGRB 022032
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI...COMBINED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WL CONT
TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS TO THE REGION THRU THU
MORNING. INITIAL BAND OF PCPN TO MAINLY REMAIN ACROSS NRN WI WHERE
VSBYS/CIGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY STORMS.
AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH TNGT...FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTS TO
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN IF THE PCPN BECOMES SCATTERED FOR A TIME...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...THUS IF NOT PCPN...THEN AREAS OF FOG WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS BECOME THE PROBLEM. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT
INTO THU MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTS TO SAG SOUTH ON THU...PCPN
CHCS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
DECREASING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO PREVAIL THU
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KALLAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 022032
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID LATE-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A
TROF OVER ALBERTA...AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS. THE WRN TROF WL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN SWD DOWN THE
WEST COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN A SHARPENING OF
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE
WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EWD BY THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS E OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WL KEEP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACRS THE AREA WELL
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PCPN AT TIMES /AS OCCURRED ACRS
THE N TDA/. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE UPR TROF AXIS NEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...FORCING WL BE SUBTLE AFTER TNGT. SO ALTHOUGH ISOLD
STORMS WL FORM AND PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEAR THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS
AT MOST AREAS WL FOR THE MOST PART DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
WITH THAT FEATURE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FCST EMPHASIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFT FROM DENSE FOG TO
PCPN POTENTIAL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS WHERE TO PLACE THE
BEST CHC FOR PCPN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF A MPX TO CWA TO SUE LINE. WATER
VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WRN
WI/ERN IA. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWED FOR A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NOT THE EASIEST OF FCSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEATHER
FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AR WEAK. THE W-E ORIENTATED
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO VERY SLOWLY SAG SWD...BUT REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL VCNTY OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WL CONT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TNGT. MAIN PROBLEM IS TRYING TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL SET-UP...SINCE A COMPLEX CAN
CREATE ITS OWN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN WI TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND REFOCUS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. BESIDES THE EVERPRESENT MARINE FOG...WL HAVE TO WATCH NRN
WI FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TNGT DUE TO RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS
AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL RANGE FROM THE
LWR 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTS ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT ON THU...HOWEVER
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ERN WI SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT BEHIND. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE DRY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPR 60S. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NEAR LAKE
MI...80-85 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK FORCING INVOF
UPPER RIDGE WL MAKE ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY. ENDED UP CARRYING
LOW POPS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
MASS AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NO SIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI...COMBINED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WL CONT
TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS TO THE REGION THRU THU
MORNING. INITIAL BAND OF PCPN TO MAINLY REMAIN ACROSS NRN WI WHERE
VSBYS/CIGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY STORMS.
AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH TNGT...FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTS TO
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN IF THE PCPN BECOMES SCATTERED FOR A TIME...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...THUS IF NOT PCPN...THEN AREAS OF FOG WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS BECOME THE PROBLEM. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT
INTO THU MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTS TO SAG SOUTH ON THU...PCPN
CHCS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
DECREASING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO PREVAIL THU
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KALLAS





000
FXUS63 KGRB 021739
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE EAST ARE NOT AS
FOGGY...VISIBILITIES COULD STILL DROP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SLOWLY TRACKING EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER THE
HI- RES MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A THETA-E
SURGE WHICH EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO ONE LARGE COMPLEX RIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LARGER COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO SLOWLY
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN GIVEN THE COPIOUS PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...AND VERY
WEAK WIND FIELD OWING TO A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FOCUSING ON THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
COMPLEX IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.

DESPITE DECENT FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE VERY WEAK WIND
FIELD IN PLACE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW PULSE STORMS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH A WET MICROBURST PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR. HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE...FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST AS THIS
COMPLEX COULD KEEP AREAS RELATIVELY FOG FREE...OR FOGGIER GIVEN
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFORDED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TENUOUS AT BEST...AS HIGHS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE AREA SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 80S GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF REACHING 90
LOOKS LOWER TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL GIVEN THE
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE 60S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED PER
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...AS THIS
COMPLEX SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ALSO
EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OR END
OF NEXT WEEK (ECMWF).

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/WRF/CANADIAN DEPICT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OR CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK 850MB WINDS OVER RUNNING WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICES TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED THIS MODEL.
HAVE A HARD TIME GOING DRY WITH SEVERAL MODELS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD AT LEAST LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI...COMBINED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WL CONT
TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS TO THE REGION THRU THU
MORNING. INITIAL BAND OF PCPN TO MAINLY REMAIN ACROSS NRN WI WHERE
VSBYS/CIGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY STORMS.
AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH TNGT...FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTS TO
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN IF THE PCPN BECOMES SCATTERED FOR A TIME...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...THUS IF NOT PCPN...THEN AREAS OF FOG WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS BECOME THE PROBLEM. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT
INTO THU MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTS TO SAG SOUTH ON THU...PCPN
CHCS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
DECREASING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO PREVAIL THU
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KALLAS





000
FXUS63 KGRB 021739
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE EAST ARE NOT AS
FOGGY...VISIBILITIES COULD STILL DROP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SLOWLY TRACKING EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER THE
HI- RES MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A THETA-E
SURGE WHICH EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO ONE LARGE COMPLEX RIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LARGER COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO SLOWLY
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN GIVEN THE COPIOUS PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...AND VERY
WEAK WIND FIELD OWING TO A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FOCUSING ON THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
COMPLEX IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.

DESPITE DECENT FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE VERY WEAK WIND
FIELD IN PLACE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW PULSE STORMS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH A WET MICROBURST PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR. HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE...FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST AS THIS
COMPLEX COULD KEEP AREAS RELATIVELY FOG FREE...OR FOGGIER GIVEN
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFORDED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TENUOUS AT BEST...AS HIGHS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE AREA SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 80S GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF REACHING 90
LOOKS LOWER TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL GIVEN THE
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE 60S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED PER
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...AS THIS
COMPLEX SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ALSO
EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OR END
OF NEXT WEEK (ECMWF).

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/WRF/CANADIAN DEPICT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OR CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK 850MB WINDS OVER RUNNING WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICES TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED THIS MODEL.
HAVE A HARD TIME GOING DRY WITH SEVERAL MODELS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD AT LEAST LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI...COMBINED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WL CONT
TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS TO THE REGION THRU THU
MORNING. INITIAL BAND OF PCPN TO MAINLY REMAIN ACROSS NRN WI WHERE
VSBYS/CIGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY STORMS.
AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH TNGT...FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTS TO
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN IF THE PCPN BECOMES SCATTERED FOR A TIME...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...THUS IF NOT PCPN...THEN AREAS OF FOG WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS BECOME THE PROBLEM. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT
INTO THU MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTS TO SAG SOUTH ON THU...PCPN
CHCS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
DECREASING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO PREVAIL THU
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KALLAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 021118
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
618 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE EAST ARE NOT AS
FOGGY...VISIBILITIES COULD STILL DROP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SLOWLY TRACKING EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER THE
HI- RES MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A THETA-E
SURGE WHICH EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO ONE LARGE COMPLEX RIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LARGER COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO SLOWLY
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN GIVEN THE COPIOUS PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...AND VERY
WEAK WIND FIELD OWING TO A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FOCUSING ON THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
COMPLEX IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.

DESPITE DECENT FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE VERY WEAK WIND
FIELD IN PLACE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW PULSE STORMS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH A WET MICROBURST PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR. HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE...FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST AS THIS
COMPLEX COULD KEEP AREAS RELATIVELY FOG FREE...OR FOGGIER GIVEN
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFORDED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TENUOUS AT BEST...AS HIGHS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE AREA SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 80S GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF REACHING 90
LOOKS LOWER TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL GIVEN THE
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE 60S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED PER
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...AS THIS
COMPLEX SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ALSO
EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OR END
OF NEXT WEEK (ECMWF).

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/WRF/CANADIAN DEPICT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OR CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK 850MB WINDS OVER RUNNING WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICES TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED THIS MODEL.
HAVE A HARD TIME GOING DRY WITH SEVERAL MODELS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD AT LEAST LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS
PERSISTING THROUGH 14Z. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THROUGH
WISCONSIN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH MORE
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FORM AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN SYSTEM HEADS EAST WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 021118
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
618 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE EAST ARE NOT AS
FOGGY...VISIBILITIES COULD STILL DROP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SLOWLY TRACKING EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER THE
HI- RES MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A THETA-E
SURGE WHICH EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO ONE LARGE COMPLEX RIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LARGER COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO SLOWLY
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN GIVEN THE COPIOUS PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...AND VERY
WEAK WIND FIELD OWING TO A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FOCUSING ON THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
COMPLEX IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.

DESPITE DECENT FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE VERY WEAK WIND
FIELD IN PLACE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW PULSE STORMS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH A WET MICROBURST PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR. HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE...FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST AS THIS
COMPLEX COULD KEEP AREAS RELATIVELY FOG FREE...OR FOGGIER GIVEN
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFORDED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TENUOUS AT BEST...AS HIGHS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE AREA SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 80S GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF REACHING 90
LOOKS LOWER TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL GIVEN THE
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE 60S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED PER
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...AS THIS
COMPLEX SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ALSO
EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OR END
OF NEXT WEEK (ECMWF).

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/WRF/CANADIAN DEPICT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OR CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK 850MB WINDS OVER RUNNING WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICES TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED THIS MODEL.
HAVE A HARD TIME GOING DRY WITH SEVERAL MODELS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD AT LEAST LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS
PERSISTING THROUGH 14Z. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THROUGH
WISCONSIN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH MORE
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FORM AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN SYSTEM HEADS EAST WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 021118
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
618 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE EAST ARE NOT AS
FOGGY...VISIBILITIES COULD STILL DROP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SLOWLY TRACKING EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER THE
HI- RES MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A THETA-E
SURGE WHICH EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO ONE LARGE COMPLEX RIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LARGER COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO SLOWLY
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN GIVEN THE COPIOUS PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...AND VERY
WEAK WIND FIELD OWING TO A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FOCUSING ON THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
COMPLEX IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.

DESPITE DECENT FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE VERY WEAK WIND
FIELD IN PLACE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW PULSE STORMS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH A WET MICROBURST PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR. HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE...FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST AS THIS
COMPLEX COULD KEEP AREAS RELATIVELY FOG FREE...OR FOGGIER GIVEN
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFORDED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TENUOUS AT BEST...AS HIGHS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE AREA SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 80S GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF REACHING 90
LOOKS LOWER TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL GIVEN THE
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE 60S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED PER
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...AS THIS
COMPLEX SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ALSO
EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OR END
OF NEXT WEEK (ECMWF).

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/WRF/CANADIAN DEPICT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OR CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK 850MB WINDS OVER RUNNING WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICES TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED THIS MODEL.
HAVE A HARD TIME GOING DRY WITH SEVERAL MODELS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD AT LEAST LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS
PERSISTING THROUGH 14Z. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THROUGH
WISCONSIN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH MORE
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FORM AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN SYSTEM HEADS EAST WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 021118
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
618 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE EAST ARE NOT AS
FOGGY...VISIBILITIES COULD STILL DROP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SLOWLY TRACKING EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER THE
HI- RES MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A THETA-E
SURGE WHICH EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO ONE LARGE COMPLEX RIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LARGER COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO SLOWLY
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN GIVEN THE COPIOUS PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...AND VERY
WEAK WIND FIELD OWING TO A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FOCUSING ON THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
COMPLEX IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.

DESPITE DECENT FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE VERY WEAK WIND
FIELD IN PLACE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW PULSE STORMS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH A WET MICROBURST PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR. HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE...FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST AS THIS
COMPLEX COULD KEEP AREAS RELATIVELY FOG FREE...OR FOGGIER GIVEN
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFORDED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TENUOUS AT BEST...AS HIGHS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE AREA SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 80S GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF REACHING 90
LOOKS LOWER TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL GIVEN THE
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE 60S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED PER
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...AS THIS
COMPLEX SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ALSO
EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OR END
OF NEXT WEEK (ECMWF).

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/WRF/CANADIAN DEPICT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OR CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK 850MB WINDS OVER RUNNING WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICES TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED THIS MODEL.
HAVE A HARD TIME GOING DRY WITH SEVERAL MODELS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD AT LEAST LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS
PERSISTING THROUGH 14Z. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THROUGH
WISCONSIN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH MORE
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FORM AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN SYSTEM HEADS EAST WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 020757
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE EAST ARE NOT AS
FOGGY...VISIBILITIES COULD STILL DROP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SLOWLY TRACKING EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER THE
HI- RES MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A THETA-E
SURGE WHICH EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO ONE LARGE COMPLEX RIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LARGER COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO SLOWLY
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN GIVEN THE COPIOUS PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...AND VERY
WEAK WIND FIELD OWING TO A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FOCUSING ON THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
COMPLEX IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.

DESPITE DECENT FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE VERY WEAK WIND
FIELD IN PLACE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW PULSE STORMS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH A WET MICROBURST PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR. HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE...FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST AS THIS
COMPLEX COULD KEEP AREAS RELATIVELY FOG FREE...OR FOGGIER GIVEN
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFORDED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TENUOUS AT BEST...AS HIGHS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE AREA SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 80S GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF REACHING 90
LOOKS LOWER TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL GIVEN THE
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE 60S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED PER
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...AS THIS
COMPLEX SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ALSO
EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OR END
OF NEXT WEEK (ECMWF).

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/WRF/CANADIAN DEPICT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OR CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK 850MB WINDS OVER RUNNING WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICES TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED THIS MODEL.
HAVE A HARD TIME GOING DRY WITH SEVERAL MODELS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD AT LEAST LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS PERSISTING TIL 14Z. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1/4 MILE WILL
BE OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE NE
TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING AND IS
FCST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO WESTERN WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE TNGT. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
MORE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ESB





000
FXUS63 KGRB 020757
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE EAST ARE NOT AS
FOGGY...VISIBILITIES COULD STILL DROP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SLOWLY TRACKING EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER THE
HI- RES MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A THETA-E
SURGE WHICH EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO ONE LARGE COMPLEX RIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LARGER COMPLEX IS SCHEDULED TO SLOWLY
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN GIVEN THE COPIOUS PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...AND VERY
WEAK WIND FIELD OWING TO A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FOCUSING ON THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
COMPLEX IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.

DESPITE DECENT FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE VERY WEAK WIND
FIELD IN PLACE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW PULSE STORMS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH A WET MICROBURST PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR. HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE...FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST AS THIS
COMPLEX COULD KEEP AREAS RELATIVELY FOG FREE...OR FOGGIER GIVEN
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFORDED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TENUOUS AT BEST...AS HIGHS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE AREA SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 80S GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF REACHING 90
LOOKS LOWER TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL GIVEN THE
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE 60S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED PER
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...AS THIS
COMPLEX SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ALSO
EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OR END
OF NEXT WEEK (ECMWF).

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/WRF/CANADIAN DEPICT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OR CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK 850MB WINDS OVER RUNNING WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICES TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED THIS MODEL.
HAVE A HARD TIME GOING DRY WITH SEVERAL MODELS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION...THUS KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD AT LEAST LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS PERSISTING TIL 14Z. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1/4 MILE WILL
BE OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE NE
TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING AND IS
FCST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO WESTERN WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE TNGT. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
MORE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ESB




000
FXUS63 KGRB 020412
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1112 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT WL BE THE SMALL THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS
NORTH THIS EVENING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TNGT. CONCERNS TURN TO
EXTENT OF PCPN ON WED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND JUICY AIR MASS OVER WI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES OVER
WI...A WEAK CDFNT THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SW TO SW MN
AND A SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

THE WEAKENING CDFNT IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY WASHOUT OVER NRN WI
TNGT...SO THE THREAT OF PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IS
LIMITED TO SLGT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH WL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TNGT. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROF...THUS A SMALL CHC
FOR CNTRL WI STILL LOOKS PRUDENT. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...WARM AND MUGGY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF (WITH ITS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE) CONTS TO TRACK
NE AND CUTS THRU THE CENTER OF WI ON WED. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING...COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MODERATELY STRONG (CLOSE TO
2K J/KG). SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK (< 20 KTS)...THUS EXPECT PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR AREAS THAT STAY PCPN-FREE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S NEAR LAKE MI/N-CNTRL WI...
MAINLY MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PCPN CHANCES WEDS NGT/THU...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDS NGT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER C/EC WI...SO WILL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT THERE. WOULD
CONSIDER LIKELY POPS GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.50
TO 2 INCHES)...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY PRODUCING MUCH
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE ON LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY AS THE S/W TROF SAGS SE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 590 EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT LITTLE RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS PERSISTING TIL 14Z. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1/4 MILE WILL
BE OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE NE
TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING AND IS
FCST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO WESTERN WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE TNGT. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
MORE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB




000
FXUS63 KGRB 020412
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1112 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT WL BE THE SMALL THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS
NORTH THIS EVENING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TNGT. CONCERNS TURN TO
EXTENT OF PCPN ON WED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND JUICY AIR MASS OVER WI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES OVER
WI...A WEAK CDFNT THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SW TO SW MN
AND A SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

THE WEAKENING CDFNT IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY WASHOUT OVER NRN WI
TNGT...SO THE THREAT OF PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IS
LIMITED TO SLGT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH WL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TNGT. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROF...THUS A SMALL CHC
FOR CNTRL WI STILL LOOKS PRUDENT. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...WARM AND MUGGY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF (WITH ITS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE) CONTS TO TRACK
NE AND CUTS THRU THE CENTER OF WI ON WED. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING...COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MODERATELY STRONG (CLOSE TO
2K J/KG). SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK (< 20 KTS)...THUS EXPECT PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR AREAS THAT STAY PCPN-FREE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S NEAR LAKE MI/N-CNTRL WI...
MAINLY MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PCPN CHANCES WEDS NGT/THU...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDS NGT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER C/EC WI...SO WILL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT THERE. WOULD
CONSIDER LIKELY POPS GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.50
TO 2 INCHES)...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY PRODUCING MUCH
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE ON LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY AS THE S/W TROF SAGS SE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 590 EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT LITTLE RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS PERSISTING TIL 14Z. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1/4 MILE WILL
BE OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE NE
TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING AND IS
FCST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO WESTERN WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE TNGT. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
MORE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB





000
FXUS63 KGRB 020021
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
721 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT WL BE THE SMALL THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS
NORTH THIS EVENING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TNGT. CONCERNS TURN TO
EXTENT OF PCPN ON WED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND JUICY AIR MASS OVER WI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES OVER
WI...A WEAK CDFNT THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SW TO SW MN
AND A SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

THE WEAKENING CDFNT IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY WASHOUT OVER NRN WI
TNGT...SO THE THREAT OF PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IS
LIMITED TO SLGT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH WL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TNGT. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROF...THUS A SMALL CHC
FOR CNTRL WI STILL LOOKS PRUDENT. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...WARM AND MUGGY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF (WITH ITS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE) CONTS TO TRACK
NE AND CUTS THRU THE CENTER OF WI ON WED. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING...COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MODERATELY STRONG (CLOSE TO
2K J/KG). SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK (< 20 KTS)...THUS EXPECT PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR AREAS THAT STAY PCPN-FREE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S NEAR LAKE MI/N-CNTRL WI...
MAINLY MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PCPN CHANCES WEDS NGT/THU...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDS NGT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER C/EC WI...SO WILL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT THERE. WOULD
CONSIDER LIKELY POPS GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.50
TO 2 INCHES)...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY PRODUCING MUCH
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE ON LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY AS THE S/W TROF SAGS SE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 590 EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT LITTLE RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS PERSISTING TIL 14Z.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE NE
TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING AND IS
FCST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO WESTERN WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE TNGT. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
MORE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB




000
FXUS63 KGRB 020021
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
721 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT WL BE THE SMALL THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS
NORTH THIS EVENING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TNGT. CONCERNS TURN TO
EXTENT OF PCPN ON WED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND JUICY AIR MASS OVER WI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES OVER
WI...A WEAK CDFNT THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SW TO SW MN
AND A SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

THE WEAKENING CDFNT IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY WASHOUT OVER NRN WI
TNGT...SO THE THREAT OF PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IS
LIMITED TO SLGT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH WL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TNGT. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROF...THUS A SMALL CHC
FOR CNTRL WI STILL LOOKS PRUDENT. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...WARM AND MUGGY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF (WITH ITS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE) CONTS TO TRACK
NE AND CUTS THRU THE CENTER OF WI ON WED. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING...COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MODERATELY STRONG (CLOSE TO
2K J/KG). SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK (< 20 KTS)...THUS EXPECT PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR AREAS THAT STAY PCPN-FREE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S NEAR LAKE MI/N-CNTRL WI...
MAINLY MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PCPN CHANCES WEDS NGT/THU...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDS NGT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER C/EC WI...SO WILL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT THERE. WOULD
CONSIDER LIKELY POPS GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.50
TO 2 INCHES)...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY PRODUCING MUCH
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE ON LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY AS THE S/W TROF SAGS SE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 590 EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT LITTLE RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS PERSISTING TIL 14Z.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE NE
TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING AND IS
FCST TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO WESTERN WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE TNGT. AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
MORE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...IN CONCERT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WOULD FAVOR SLOW MOVING AND
MORE DISORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011924
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT WL BE THE SMALL THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS
NORTH THIS EVENING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TNGT. CONCERNS TURN TO
EXTENT OF PCPN ON WED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND JUICY AIR MASS OVER WI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES OVER
WI...A WEAK CDFNT THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SW TO SW MN
AND A SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

THE WEAKENING CDFNT IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY WASHOUT OVER NRN WI
TNGT...SO THE THREAT OF PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IS
LIMITED TO SLGT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH WL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TNGT. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROF...THUS A SMALL CHC
FOR CNTRL WI STILL LOOKS PRUDENT. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...WARM AND MUGGY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF (WITH ITS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE) CONTS TO TRACK
NE AND CUTS THRU THE CENTER OF WI ON WED. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING...COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MODERATELY STRONG (CLOSE TO
2K J/KG). SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK (< 20 KTS)...THUS EXPECT PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR AREAS THAT STAY PCPN-FREE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S NEAR LAKE MI/N-CNTRL WI...
MAINLY MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PCPN CHANCES WEDS NGT/THU...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDS NGT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER C/EC WI...SO WILL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT THERE. WOULD
CONSIDER LIKELY POPS GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.50
TO 2 INCHES)...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY PRODUCING MUCH
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE ON LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY AS THE S/W TROF SAGS SE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 590 EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT LITTLE RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO AN AFTERNOON HI-END
MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIG CU DECK WITH WEAK HI PRES MOVING ACROSS WI. A
WEAK CDFNT APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER (ESSENTIALLY WASH-OUT) OVER NRN WI TNGT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE TNGT. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TO THE REGION LATE TNGT THRU WED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KALLAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011924
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT WL BE THE SMALL THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS
NORTH THIS EVENING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TNGT. CONCERNS TURN TO
EXTENT OF PCPN ON WED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND JUICY AIR MASS OVER WI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES OVER
WI...A WEAK CDFNT THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SW TO SW MN
AND A SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

THE WEAKENING CDFNT IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY WASHOUT OVER NRN WI
TNGT...SO THE THREAT OF PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IS
LIMITED TO SLGT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH WL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TNGT. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROF...THUS A SMALL CHC
FOR CNTRL WI STILL LOOKS PRUDENT. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...WARM AND MUGGY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF (WITH ITS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE) CONTS TO TRACK
NE AND CUTS THRU THE CENTER OF WI ON WED. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING...COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MODERATELY STRONG (CLOSE TO
2K J/KG). SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK (< 20 KTS)...THUS EXPECT PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR AREAS THAT STAY PCPN-FREE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S NEAR LAKE MI/N-CNTRL WI...
MAINLY MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PCPN CHANCES WEDS NGT/THU...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDS NGT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER C/EC WI...SO WILL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT THERE. WOULD
CONSIDER LIKELY POPS GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.50
TO 2 INCHES)...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY PRODUCING MUCH
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE ON LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY AS THE S/W TROF SAGS SE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 590 EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT LITTLE RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO AN AFTERNOON HI-END
MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIG CU DECK WITH WEAK HI PRES MOVING ACROSS WI. A
WEAK CDFNT APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER (ESSENTIALLY WASH-OUT) OVER NRN WI TNGT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE TNGT. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TO THE REGION LATE TNGT THRU WED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KALLAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011924
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT WL BE THE SMALL THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS
NORTH THIS EVENING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TNGT. CONCERNS TURN TO
EXTENT OF PCPN ON WED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND JUICY AIR MASS OVER WI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES OVER
WI...A WEAK CDFNT THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SW TO SW MN
AND A SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

THE WEAKENING CDFNT IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY WASHOUT OVER NRN WI
TNGT...SO THE THREAT OF PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IS
LIMITED TO SLGT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH WL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TNGT. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROF...THUS A SMALL CHC
FOR CNTRL WI STILL LOOKS PRUDENT. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...WARM AND MUGGY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF (WITH ITS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE) CONTS TO TRACK
NE AND CUTS THRU THE CENTER OF WI ON WED. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING...COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MODERATELY STRONG (CLOSE TO
2K J/KG). SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK (< 20 KTS)...THUS EXPECT PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR AREAS THAT STAY PCPN-FREE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S NEAR LAKE MI/N-CNTRL WI...
MAINLY MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PCPN CHANCES WEDS NGT/THU...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDS NGT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER C/EC WI...SO WILL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT THERE. WOULD
CONSIDER LIKELY POPS GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.50
TO 2 INCHES)...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY PRODUCING MUCH
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE ON LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY AS THE S/W TROF SAGS SE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 590 EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT LITTLE RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO AN AFTERNOON HI-END
MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIG CU DECK WITH WEAK HI PRES MOVING ACROSS WI. A
WEAK CDFNT APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER (ESSENTIALLY WASH-OUT) OVER NRN WI TNGT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE TNGT. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TO THE REGION LATE TNGT THRU WED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KALLAS





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011924
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT WL BE THE SMALL THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS
NORTH THIS EVENING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TNGT. CONCERNS TURN TO
EXTENT OF PCPN ON WED AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND JUICY AIR MASS OVER WI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES OVER
WI...A WEAK CDFNT THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SW TO SW MN
AND A SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

THE WEAKENING CDFNT IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY WASHOUT OVER NRN WI
TNGT...SO THE THREAT OF PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IS
LIMITED TO SLGT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH WL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TNGT. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA
OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROF...THUS A SMALL CHC
FOR CNTRL WI STILL LOOKS PRUDENT. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...WARM AND MUGGY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROF (WITH ITS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE) CONTS TO TRACK
NE AND CUTS THRU THE CENTER OF WI ON WED. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING...COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE STORMS AS INSTABILITY IS MODERATELY STRONG (CLOSE TO
2K J/KG). SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK (< 20 KTS)...THUS EXPECT PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR AREAS THAT STAY PCPN-FREE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S NEAR LAKE MI/N-CNTRL WI...
MAINLY MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PCPN CHANCES WEDS NGT/THU...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDS NGT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER C/EC WI...SO WILL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT THERE. WOULD
CONSIDER LIKELY POPS GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.50
TO 2 INCHES)...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY PRODUCING MUCH
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE ON LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY AS THE S/W TROF SAGS SE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 590 EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT LITTLE RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO AN AFTERNOON HI-END
MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIG CU DECK WITH WEAK HI PRES MOVING ACROSS WI. A
WEAK CDFNT APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER (ESSENTIALLY WASH-OUT) OVER NRN WI TNGT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE TNGT. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TO THE REGION LATE TNGT THRU WED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KALLAS





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A STEEP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAS CAUSED FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL IT BURNS OFF WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING INTO A DRYER LAYER ALOFT. HOWEVER FOG SHOULD
LINGER OVER THE MARINE AREAS DUE TO COOL NEARSHORE LAKE
TEMPERATURES AND THE WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH A
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SAVE FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT...MUCAPES
WILL SOAR TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANY
STORMS THAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...AS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR.

TONIGHT WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS CAUSE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA. A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AS
A SIMILAR AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COINCIDENT WITH A 850-700 MB THETA-E SURGE. DESPITE
MUCAPE VALUES SOARING TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER WITH 30 KNOTS OF WIND NOT SEEN UNTIL YOU GET ABOVE 500 MB.
THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED EVEN IF STORMS GET
GOING ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DOMINANT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  THE LATEST WRINKLE POPS UP IN THE
ECMWF WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  THE LATEST GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN...WILL STICK WITH THE
GFS UNTIL THE SLOWER SOLUTION GETS MORE SUPPORT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD
TO A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE SREF INDICATES THAT
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND
THIS MATCHES WHERE THE HIGHEST PWATS AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
WILL MODIFY POPS TO MATCH THESE THOUGHTS.  THE SHORTWAVE EXITS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHICH STILL LOOKS WARM...MUGGY...AND DRY.  THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOULD
PROVIDE THE NEXT WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TURNING
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO AN AFTERNOON HI-END
MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIG CU DECK WITH WEAK HI PRES MOVING ACROSS WI. A
WEAK CDFNT APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER (ESSENTIALLY WASH-OUT) OVER NRN WI TNGT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE TNGT. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TO THE REGION LATE TNGT THRU WED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KALLAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A STEEP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAS CAUSED FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL IT BURNS OFF WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING INTO A DRYER LAYER ALOFT. HOWEVER FOG SHOULD
LINGER OVER THE MARINE AREAS DUE TO COOL NEARSHORE LAKE
TEMPERATURES AND THE WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH A
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SAVE FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT...MUCAPES
WILL SOAR TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANY
STORMS THAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...AS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR.

TONIGHT WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS CAUSE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA. A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AS
A SIMILAR AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COINCIDENT WITH A 850-700 MB THETA-E SURGE. DESPITE
MUCAPE VALUES SOARING TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER WITH 30 KNOTS OF WIND NOT SEEN UNTIL YOU GET ABOVE 500 MB.
THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED EVEN IF STORMS GET
GOING ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DOMINANT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  THE LATEST WRINKLE POPS UP IN THE
ECMWF WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  THE LATEST GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN...WILL STICK WITH THE
GFS UNTIL THE SLOWER SOLUTION GETS MORE SUPPORT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD
TO A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE SREF INDICATES THAT
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND
THIS MATCHES WHERE THE HIGHEST PWATS AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
WILL MODIFY POPS TO MATCH THESE THOUGHTS.  THE SHORTWAVE EXITS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHICH STILL LOOKS WARM...MUGGY...AND DRY.  THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOULD
PROVIDE THE NEXT WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TURNING
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO AN AFTERNOON HI-END
MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIG CU DECK WITH WEAK HI PRES MOVING ACROSS WI. A
WEAK CDFNT APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER (ESSENTIALLY WASH-OUT) OVER NRN WI TNGT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE TNGT. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TO THE REGION LATE TNGT THRU WED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KALLAS





000
FXUS63 KGRB 011808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A STEEP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAS CAUSED FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL IT BURNS OFF WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING INTO A DRYER LAYER ALOFT. HOWEVER FOG SHOULD
LINGER OVER THE MARINE AREAS DUE TO COOL NEARSHORE LAKE
TEMPERATURES AND THE WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH A
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SAVE FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT...MUCAPES
WILL SOAR TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANY
STORMS THAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...AS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR.

TONIGHT WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS CAUSE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA. A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AS
A SIMILAR AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COINCIDENT WITH A 850-700 MB THETA-E SURGE. DESPITE
MUCAPE VALUES SOARING TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER WITH 30 KNOTS OF WIND NOT SEEN UNTIL YOU GET ABOVE 500 MB.
THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED EVEN IF STORMS GET
GOING ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DOMINANT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  THE LATEST WRINKLE POPS UP IN THE
ECMWF WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  THE LATEST GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN...WILL STICK WITH THE
GFS UNTIL THE SLOWER SOLUTION GETS MORE SUPPORT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD
TO A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE SREF INDICATES THAT
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND
THIS MATCHES WHERE THE HIGHEST PWATS AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
WILL MODIFY POPS TO MATCH THESE THOUGHTS.  THE SHORTWAVE EXITS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHICH STILL LOOKS WARM...MUGGY...AND DRY.  THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOULD
PROVIDE THE NEXT WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TURNING
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO AN AFTERNOON HI-END
MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIG CU DECK WITH WEAK HI PRES MOVING ACROSS WI. A
WEAK CDFNT APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER (ESSENTIALLY WASH-OUT) OVER NRN WI TNGT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE TNGT. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TO THE REGION LATE TNGT THRU WED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KALLAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A STEEP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAS CAUSED FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL IT BURNS OFF WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING INTO A DRYER LAYER ALOFT. HOWEVER FOG SHOULD
LINGER OVER THE MARINE AREAS DUE TO COOL NEARSHORE LAKE
TEMPERATURES AND THE WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH A
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SAVE FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT...MUCAPES
WILL SOAR TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANY
STORMS THAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...AS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR.

TONIGHT WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS CAUSE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA. A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AS
A SIMILAR AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES COINCIDENT WITH A 850-700 MB THETA-E SURGE. DESPITE
MUCAPE VALUES SOARING TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER WITH 30 KNOTS OF WIND NOT SEEN UNTIL YOU GET ABOVE 500 MB.
THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED EVEN IF STORMS GET
GOING ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DOMINANT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  THE LATEST WRINKLE POPS UP IN THE
ECMWF WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  THE LATEST GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN...WILL STICK WITH THE
GFS UNTIL THE SLOWER SOLUTION GETS MORE SUPPORT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD
TO A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE SREF INDICATES THAT
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND
THIS MATCHES WHERE THE HIGHEST PWATS AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
WILL MODIFY POPS TO MATCH THESE THOUGHTS.  THE SHORTWAVE EXITS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHICH STILL LOOKS WARM...MUGGY...AND DRY.  THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOULD
PROVIDE THE NEXT WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TURNING
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO AN AFTERNOON HI-END
MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIG CU DECK WITH WEAK HI PRES MOVING ACROSS WI. A
WEAK CDFNT APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER (ESSENTIALLY WASH-OUT) OVER NRN WI TNGT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES LATE TNGT. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TO THE REGION LATE TNGT THRU WED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS...
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR
TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KALLAS





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