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000
FXUS63 KGRB 252359
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS SAW BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN. LATEST RADAR
IMAGES FROM KGRB INDICATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME DOING SO DUE TO WARM
LAYER ALOFT. MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THAT MAY BE A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...LOCATION OF HIGHEST CHANCES AND IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CONVECTION
ACROSS IOWA AND WORK IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THINK BEST OF POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
STORM WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MEANWHILE...
A FEW OTHER MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND THAT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
(NAM MODEL). HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATES THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF THE LATEST MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD END
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY OR WHETHER
A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT AND SLOWS IT DOWN. AFTER THAT A NICE COOL
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA THAT SHOULD PRODUCE COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCT TSTMS MAY IMPACT THE AUW/CWA/ATW/GRB TAF SITES THIS EVG BEFORE
DISSIPATING...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE FIRST 2 OR 3
HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PCPN UNTIL LATE TUES
MORNING. GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...NEED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG FROM OCCURRING AT ATW/GRB/MTW...BUT KEPT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES. LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS LATE TUES MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

ADDED SOME LLWS TO THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT...AS SW
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 252359
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS SAW BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN. LATEST RADAR
IMAGES FROM KGRB INDICATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME DOING SO DUE TO WARM
LAYER ALOFT. MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THAT MAY BE A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...LOCATION OF HIGHEST CHANCES AND IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CONVECTION
ACROSS IOWA AND WORK IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THINK BEST OF POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
STORM WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MEANWHILE...
A FEW OTHER MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND THAT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
(NAM MODEL). HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATES THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF THE LATEST MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD END
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY OR WHETHER
A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT AND SLOWS IT DOWN. AFTER THAT A NICE COOL
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA THAT SHOULD PRODUCE COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCT TSTMS MAY IMPACT THE AUW/CWA/ATW/GRB TAF SITES THIS EVG BEFORE
DISSIPATING...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE FIRST 2 OR 3
HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PCPN UNTIL LATE TUES
MORNING. GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...NEED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG FROM OCCURRING AT ATW/GRB/MTW...BUT KEPT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES. LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS LATE TUES MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

ADDED SOME LLWS TO THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT...AS SW
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 251956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS SAW BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN. LATEST RADAR
IMAGES FROM KGRB INDICATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME DOING SO DUE TO WARM
LAYER ALOFT. MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THAT MAY BE A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...LOCATION OF HIGHEST CHANCES AND IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CONVECTION
ACROSS IOWA AND WORK IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THINK BEST OF POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
STORM WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MEANWHILE...
A FEW OTHER MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND THAT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
(NAM MODEL). HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATES THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF THE LATEST MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.




ECKBERG.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD END
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY OR WHETHER
A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT AND SLOWS IT DOWN. AFTER THAT A NICE COOL
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA THAT SHOULD PRODUCE COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN INTO THIS CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALL CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THESE TWO CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD REFIRE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
TIMES FOR RAIN BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT THOUGHTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOME STORMS IS LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 251956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS SAW BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN. LATEST RADAR
IMAGES FROM KGRB INDICATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME DOING SO DUE TO WARM
LAYER ALOFT. MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THAT MAY BE A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...LOCATION OF HIGHEST CHANCES AND IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CONVECTION
ACROSS IOWA AND WORK IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THINK BEST OF POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
STORM WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MEANWHILE...
A FEW OTHER MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND THAT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
(NAM MODEL). HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATES THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF THE LATEST MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.




ECKBERG.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD END
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY OR WHETHER
A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT AND SLOWS IT DOWN. AFTER THAT A NICE COOL
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA THAT SHOULD PRODUCE COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN INTO THIS CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALL CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THESE TWO CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD REFIRE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
TIMES FOR RAIN BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT THOUGHTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOME STORMS IS LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 251956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS SAW BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN. LATEST RADAR
IMAGES FROM KGRB INDICATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME DOING SO DUE TO WARM
LAYER ALOFT. MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THAT MAY BE A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...LOCATION OF HIGHEST CHANCES AND IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CONVECTION
ACROSS IOWA AND WORK IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THINK BEST OF POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
STORM WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MEANWHILE...
A FEW OTHER MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND THAT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
(NAM MODEL). HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATES THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF THE LATEST MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.




ECKBERG.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD END
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY OR WHETHER
A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT AND SLOWS IT DOWN. AFTER THAT A NICE COOL
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA THAT SHOULD PRODUCE COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN INTO THIS CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALL CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THESE TWO CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD REFIRE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
TIMES FOR RAIN BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT THOUGHTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOME STORMS IS LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 251956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS SAW BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN. LATEST RADAR
IMAGES FROM KGRB INDICATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME DOING SO DUE TO WARM
LAYER ALOFT. MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THAT MAY BE A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...LOCATION OF HIGHEST CHANCES AND IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CONVECTION
ACROSS IOWA AND WORK IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THINK BEST OF POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
STORM WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MEANWHILE...
A FEW OTHER MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND THAT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
(NAM MODEL). HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATES THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF THE LATEST MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.




ECKBERG.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD END
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY OR WHETHER
A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT AND SLOWS IT DOWN. AFTER THAT A NICE COOL
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA THAT SHOULD PRODUCE COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN INTO THIS CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALL CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THESE TWO CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD REFIRE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
TIMES FOR RAIN BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT THOUGHTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOME STORMS IS LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 251602
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1102 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...PLACING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWS SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD FROM
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND
650 MB WHICH COULD INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH WINDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SO GETTING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT OF A TASK. GIVEN ALL OF THE
WHAT IFS DURING THIS PERIOD A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
LATER TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MODEST
INSTABILITY VALUES...MEANS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT TENUOUS FOR
TUESDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
THUNDER...BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS CONTINUED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN INTO THIS CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALL CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THESE TWO CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD REFIRE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
TIMES FOR RAIN BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT THOUGHTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOME STORMS IS LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 251602
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1102 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...PLACING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWS SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD FROM
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND
650 MB WHICH COULD INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH WINDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SO GETTING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT OF A TASK. GIVEN ALL OF THE
WHAT IFS DURING THIS PERIOD A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
LATER TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MODEST
INSTABILITY VALUES...MEANS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT TENUOUS FOR
TUESDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
THUNDER...BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS CONTINUED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN INTO THIS CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALL CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THESE TWO CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD REFIRE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
TIMES FOR RAIN BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT THOUGHTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOME STORMS IS LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 251602
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1102 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...PLACING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWS SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD FROM
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND
650 MB WHICH COULD INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH WINDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SO GETTING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT OF A TASK. GIVEN ALL OF THE
WHAT IFS DURING THIS PERIOD A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
LATER TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MODEST
INSTABILITY VALUES...MEANS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT TENUOUS FOR
TUESDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
THUNDER...BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS CONTINUED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN INTO THIS CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALL CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THESE TWO CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD REFIRE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING
AT MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
TIMES FOR RAIN BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT THOUGHTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SOME STORMS IS LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 251057
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...PLACING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWS SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD FROM
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND
650 MB WHICH COULD INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH WINDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SO GETTING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT OF A TASK. GIVEN ALL OF THE
WHAT IFS DURING THIS PERIOD A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
LATER TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MODEST
INSTABILITY VALUES...MEANS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT TENUOUS FOR
TUESDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
THUNDER...BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS CONTINUED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THE SHOWERS...WITH VFR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES BUT NOT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THIS
MORNING. A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/LOCAL VFR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND SW
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES. SCT
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVG...AND MAY TRACK INTO EC WI DURING THE
EVG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES RIGHT NOW. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LEVELS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 251057
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...PLACING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWS SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD FROM
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND
650 MB WHICH COULD INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH WINDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SO GETTING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT OF A TASK. GIVEN ALL OF THE
WHAT IFS DURING THIS PERIOD A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
LATER TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MODEST
INSTABILITY VALUES...MEANS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT TENUOUS FOR
TUESDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
THUNDER...BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS CONTINUED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THE SHOWERS...WITH VFR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES BUT NOT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THIS
MORNING. A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/LOCAL VFR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND SW
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES. SCT
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVG...AND MAY TRACK INTO EC WI DURING THE
EVG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES RIGHT NOW. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LEVELS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 251057
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...PLACING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWS SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD FROM
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND
650 MB WHICH COULD INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH WINDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SO GETTING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT OF A TASK. GIVEN ALL OF THE
WHAT IFS DURING THIS PERIOD A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
LATER TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MODEST
INSTABILITY VALUES...MEANS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT TENUOUS FOR
TUESDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
THUNDER...BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS CONTINUED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THE SHOWERS...WITH VFR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES BUT NOT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THIS
MORNING. A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/LOCAL VFR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND SW
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES. SCT
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVG...AND MAY TRACK INTO EC WI DURING THE
EVG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES RIGHT NOW. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LEVELS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 251057
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...PLACING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWS SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD FROM
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND
650 MB WHICH COULD INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH WINDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SO GETTING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT OF A TASK. GIVEN ALL OF THE
WHAT IFS DURING THIS PERIOD A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
LATER TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MODEST
INSTABILITY VALUES...MEANS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT TENUOUS FOR
TUESDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
THUNDER...BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS CONTINUED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THE SHOWERS...WITH VFR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES BUT NOT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THIS
MORNING. A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/LOCAL VFR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND SW
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES. SCT
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVG...AND MAY TRACK INTO EC WI DURING THE
EVG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES RIGHT NOW. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LEVELS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 250809
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...PLACING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWS SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD FROM
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND
650 MB WHICH COULD INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH WINDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SO GETTING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT OF A TASK. GIVEN ALL OF THE
WHAT IFS DURING THIS PERIOD A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
LATER TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MODEST
INSTABILITY VALUES...MEANS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT TENUOUS FOR
TUESDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
THUNDER...BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS CONTINUED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO
THE RAIN AND PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE REGION. A DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/LOCAL VFR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND SW WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 30 KTS AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES. SCT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVG...
AND MAY TRACK INTO EC WI DURING THE EVG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES RIGHT NOW.

WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM
SE TO SW AND INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 12Z/MON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 250809
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...PLACING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWS SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD FROM
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND
650 MB WHICH COULD INHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE FAIRLY HIGH WINDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SO GETTING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT OF A TASK. GIVEN ALL OF THE
WHAT IFS DURING THIS PERIOD A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
LATER TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MODEST
INSTABILITY VALUES...MEANS THUNDER CHANCES ARE A BIT TENUOUS FOR
TUESDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
THUNDER...BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS CONTINUED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO
THE RAIN AND PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE REGION. A DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/LOCAL VFR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND SW WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 30 KTS AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES. SCT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVG...
AND MAY TRACK INTO EC WI DURING THE EVG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES RIGHT NOW.

WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM
SE TO SW AND INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 12Z/MON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 250441
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE A WET NIGHT
AS 850MB LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY MORNING
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
SHOWER CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ON MEMORIAL DAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN.

IT WILL TURN WINDY AND WARM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 TO 35 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS COULD KEEP THE FAR NORTH (VILAS COUNTY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. JET STREAKS LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY (DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE). IT SHOULD BE BE FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING TO 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO
THE RAIN AND PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE REGION. A DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/LOCAL VFR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND SW WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 30 KTS AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES. SCT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVG...
AND MAY TRACK INTO EC WI DURING THE EVG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES RIGHT NOW.

WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM
SE TO SW AND INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 12Z/MON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 250441
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE A WET NIGHT
AS 850MB LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY MORNING
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
SHOWER CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ON MEMORIAL DAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN.

IT WILL TURN WINDY AND WARM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 TO 35 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS COULD KEEP THE FAR NORTH (VILAS COUNTY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. JET STREAKS LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY (DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE). IT SHOULD BE BE FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING TO 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO
THE RAIN AND PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE REGION. A DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/LOCAL VFR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND SW WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 30 KTS AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES. SCT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVG...
AND MAY TRACK INTO EC WI DURING THE EVG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES RIGHT NOW.

WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM
SE TO SW AND INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 12Z/MON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 250000
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
700 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE A WET NIGHT
AS 850MB LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY MORNING
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
SHOWER CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ON MEMORIAL DAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN.

IT WILL TURN WINDY AND WARM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 TO 35 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS COULD KEEP THE FAR NORTH (VILAS COUNTY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. JET STREAKS LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY (DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE). IT SHOULD BE BE FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING TO 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AND LINGER OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE
TO THE RAIN AND PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN IN SOME AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
WARM FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE REGION. A DRY
SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS OVER THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR/LOCAL VFR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...ALONG WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KTS AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES.

WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE FCST FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...AS WINDS ALOFT
VEER FROM SE TO SW AND INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS THIS EVG AND
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 12Z/MON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241957
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE A WET NIGHT
AS 850MB LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY MORNING
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
SHOWER CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ON MEMORIAL DAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN.

IT WILL TURN WINDY AND WARM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 TO 35 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS COULD KEEP THE FAR NORTH (VILAS COUNTY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.



ECKBERG.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. JET STREAKS LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY (DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE). IT SHOULD BE BE FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING TO 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING
SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STEADY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION
TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241957
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE A WET NIGHT
AS 850MB LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY MORNING
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
SHOWER CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ON MEMORIAL DAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN.

IT WILL TURN WINDY AND WARM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 TO 35 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS COULD KEEP THE FAR NORTH (VILAS COUNTY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.



ECKBERG.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. JET STREAKS LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY (DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE). IT SHOULD BE BE FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING TO 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING
SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STEADY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION
TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 241957
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE A WET NIGHT
AS 850MB LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY MORNING
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
SHOWER CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ON MEMORIAL DAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN.

IT WILL TURN WINDY AND WARM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 TO 35 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS COULD KEEP THE FAR NORTH (VILAS COUNTY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.



ECKBERG.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. JET STREAKS LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY (DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE). IT SHOULD BE BE FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING TO 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING
SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STEADY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION
TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 241957
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE A WET NIGHT
AS 850MB LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY MORNING
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
SHOWER CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ON MEMORIAL DAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN.

IT WILL TURN WINDY AND WARM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 TO 35 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS COULD KEEP THE FAR NORTH (VILAS COUNTY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.



ECKBERG.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. JET STREAKS LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY (DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE). IT SHOULD BE BE FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING TO 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING
SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STEADY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION
TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AS THICKENING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
WILL STEADILY ADVECT NORTHWARD TODAY COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E ADVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS THE RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
WILL NOT LEAD TO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AS THE
THICKENING CLOUDS BLOCK MUCH OF THE INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT
GREAT AS INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF UPSTREAM
LIGHTNING TRENDS ALSO SHOWS THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
LIKELY AS LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT SO WILL LEAVE A TOKEN
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TRACKS TOWARDS IOWA. AS
IT DOES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO WISCONSIN WITH RAIN FOCUSED
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROVIDES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING. THE LIFT AND GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDER.

THE LOW ITSELF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN ON MEMORIAL
DAY...BRINGING A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS CAPES SOAR
TO AROUND 1 J/G WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
IF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE HAD IN THE DRY SLOT ON MEMORIAL
DAY INSTABILITY COULD BE ENHANCED...RAISING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS. CURRENT DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE RELIANCE ON GETTING SOME SUNSHINE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY. WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MEMORIAL DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER THAN MOS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE AS A SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. TRIED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS...SO CHANCE POPS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SO
WENT THE SLOWER ROUTE AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTH
AND CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND POPS FALL INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING
SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STEADY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION
TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AS THICKENING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
WILL STEADILY ADVECT NORTHWARD TODAY COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E ADVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS THE RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
WILL NOT LEAD TO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AS THE
THICKENING CLOUDS BLOCK MUCH OF THE INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT
GREAT AS INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF UPSTREAM
LIGHTNING TRENDS ALSO SHOWS THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
LIKELY AS LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT SO WILL LEAVE A TOKEN
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TRACKS TOWARDS IOWA. AS
IT DOES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO WISCONSIN WITH RAIN FOCUSED
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROVIDES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING. THE LIFT AND GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDER.

THE LOW ITSELF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN ON MEMORIAL
DAY...BRINGING A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS CAPES SOAR
TO AROUND 1 J/G WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
IF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE HAD IN THE DRY SLOT ON MEMORIAL
DAY INSTABILITY COULD BE ENHANCED...RAISING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS. CURRENT DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE RELIANCE ON GETTING SOME SUNSHINE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY. WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MEMORIAL DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER THAN MOS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE AS A SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. TRIED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS...SO CHANCE POPS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SO
WENT THE SLOWER ROUTE AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTH
AND CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND POPS FALL INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING
SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STEADY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION
TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 241051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AS THICKENING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
WILL STEADILY ADVECT NORTHWARD TODAY COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E ADVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS THE RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
WILL NOT LEAD TO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AS THE
THICKENING CLOUDS BLOCK MUCH OF THE INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT
GREAT AS INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF UPSTREAM
LIGHTNING TRENDS ALSO SHOWS THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
LIKELY AS LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT SO WILL LEAVE A TOKEN
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TRACKS TOWARDS IOWA. AS
IT DOES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO WISCONSIN WITH RAIN FOCUSED
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROVIDES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING. THE LIFT AND GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDER.

THE LOW ITSELF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN ON MEMORIAL
DAY...BRINGING A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS CAPES SOAR
TO AROUND 1 J/G WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
IF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE HAD IN THE DRY SLOT ON MEMORIAL
DAY INSTABILITY COULD BE ENHANCED...RAISING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS. CURRENT DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE RELIANCE ON GETTING SOME SUNSHINE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY. WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MEMORIAL DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER THAN MOS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE AS A SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. TRIED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS...SO CHANCE POPS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SO
WENT THE SLOWER ROUTE AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTH
AND CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND POPS FALL INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING
SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STEADY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION
TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AS THICKENING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
WILL STEADILY ADVECT NORTHWARD TODAY COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E ADVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS THE RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
WILL NOT LEAD TO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AS THE
THICKENING CLOUDS BLOCK MUCH OF THE INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT
GREAT AS INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF UPSTREAM
LIGHTNING TRENDS ALSO SHOWS THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
LIKELY AS LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT SO WILL LEAVE A TOKEN
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TRACKS TOWARDS IOWA. AS
IT DOES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO WISCONSIN WITH RAIN FOCUSED
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROVIDES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING. THE LIFT AND GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDER.

THE LOW ITSELF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN ON MEMORIAL
DAY...BRINGING A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS CAPES SOAR
TO AROUND 1 J/G WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
IF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE HAD IN THE DRY SLOT ON MEMORIAL
DAY INSTABILITY COULD BE ENHANCED...RAISING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS. CURRENT DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE RELIANCE ON GETTING SOME SUNSHINE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY. WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MEMORIAL DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER THAN MOS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE AS A SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. TRIED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS...SO CHANCE POPS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SO
WENT THE SLOWER ROUTE AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTH
AND CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND POPS FALL INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING
SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STEADY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION
TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 240820
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AS THICKENING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
WILL STEADILY ADVECT NORTHWARD TODAY COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E ADVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS THE RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
WILL NOT LEAD TO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AS THE
THICKENING CLOUDS BLOCK MUCH OF THE INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT
GREAT AS INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF UPSTREAM
LIGHTNING TRENDS ALSO SHOWS THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
LIKELY AS LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT SO WILL LEAVE A TOKEN
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TRACKS TOWARDS IOWA. AS
IT DOES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO WISCONSIN WITH RAIN FOCUSED
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROVIDES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING. THE LIFT AND GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDER.

THE LOW ITSELF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN ON MEMORIAL
DAY...BRINGING A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS CAPES SOAR
TO AROUND 1 J/G WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
IF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE HAD IN THE DRY SLOT ON MEMORIAL
DAY INSTABILITY COULD BE ENHANCED...RAISING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS. CURRENT DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE RELIANCE ON GETTING SOME SUNSHINE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY. WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MEMORIAL DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER THAN MOS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE AS A SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. TRIED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS...SO CHANCE POPS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SO
WENT THE SLOWER ROUTE AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTH
AND CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND POPS FALL INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLD SPRINKLES ANTICIPATED.
AN INCREASING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...WITH A STEADY
RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO
MENTION TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED SOME LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 240820
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AS THICKENING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
WILL STEADILY ADVECT NORTHWARD TODAY COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E ADVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS THE RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
WILL NOT LEAD TO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AS THE
THICKENING CLOUDS BLOCK MUCH OF THE INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT
GREAT AS INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. CLOSE INSPECTION OF UPSTREAM
LIGHTNING TRENDS ALSO SHOWS THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
LIKELY AS LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT SO WILL LEAVE A TOKEN
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TRACKS TOWARDS IOWA. AS
IT DOES IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO WISCONSIN WITH RAIN FOCUSED
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROVIDES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING. THE LIFT AND GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDER.

THE LOW ITSELF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN ON MEMORIAL
DAY...BRINGING A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS CAPES SOAR
TO AROUND 1 J/G WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
IF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE HAD IN THE DRY SLOT ON MEMORIAL
DAY INSTABILITY COULD BE ENHANCED...RAISING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS. CURRENT DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE RELIANCE ON GETTING SOME SUNSHINE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY. WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MEMORIAL DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER THAN MOS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE AS A SURFACE
LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. TRIED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALSO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS...SO CHANCE POPS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SO
WENT THE SLOWER ROUTE AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTH
AND CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND POPS FALL INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLD SPRINKLES ANTICIPATED.
AN INCREASING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...WITH A STEADY
RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO
MENTION TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED SOME LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 240352
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTWEST ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY A FEW HOURS.
BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID COMPROMISE WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND HAD MID RANGE
POPS ALREADY BY 18Z. LOOKING AT THUNDER PARAMETERS...NOT VERY
PROMISING FOR EVEN A CLAP OF THUNDER. DID REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ONLY HAD SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF PRECIPITATION...THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE SFC-BASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DELIVER A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WI FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN U.S. AND DRAW
THE SFC LOW NE INTO CANADA. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER AT TIMES...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLD SPRINKLES ANTICIPATED.
AN INCREASING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...WITH A STEADY
RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO
MENTION TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED SOME LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 240352
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTWEST ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY A FEW HOURS.
BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID COMPROMISE WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND HAD MID RANGE
POPS ALREADY BY 18Z. LOOKING AT THUNDER PARAMETERS...NOT VERY
PROMISING FOR EVEN A CLAP OF THUNDER. DID REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ONLY HAD SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF PRECIPITATION...THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE SFC-BASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DELIVER A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WI FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN U.S. AND DRAW
THE SFC LOW NE INTO CANADA. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER AT TIMES...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLD SPRINKLES ANTICIPATED.
AN INCREASING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...WITH A STEADY
RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO
MENTION TSTMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED SOME LLWS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 232327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTWEST ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY A FEW HOURS.
BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID COMPROMISE WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND HAD MID RANGE
POPS ALREADY BY 18Z. LOOKING AT THUNDER PARAMETERS...NOT VERY
PROMISING FOR EVEN A CLAP OF THUNDER. DID REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ONLY HAD SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF PRECIPITATION...THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE SFC-BASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DELIVER A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WI FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN U.S. AND DRAW
THE SFC LOW NE INTO CANADA. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER AT TIMES...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLD SPRINKLES ANTICIPATED.
AN INCREASING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION TSTMS AT THIS TIME.
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 232327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTWEST ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY A FEW HOURS.
BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID COMPROMISE WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND HAD MID RANGE
POPS ALREADY BY 18Z. LOOKING AT THUNDER PARAMETERS...NOT VERY
PROMISING FOR EVEN A CLAP OF THUNDER. DID REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ONLY HAD SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF PRECIPITATION...THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE SFC-BASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DELIVER A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WI FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN U.S. AND DRAW
THE SFC LOW NE INTO CANADA. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER AT TIMES...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLD SPRINKLES ANTICIPATED.
AN INCREASING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION TSTMS AT THIS TIME.
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231929
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
229 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTWEST ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY A FEW HOURS.
BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID COMPROMISE WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND HAD MID RANGE
POPS ALREADY BY 18Z. LOOKING AT THUNDER PARAMETERS...NOT VERY
PROMISING FOR EVEN A CLAP OF THUNDER. DID REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ONLY HAD SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF PRECIPITATION...THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE SFC-BASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DELIVER A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WI FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN U.S. AND DRAW
THE SFC LOW NE INTO CANADA. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER AT TIMES...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH. DID ADD SOME
SPRINKLES IN THE 18Z KRHI TAF FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD KAUW/KCWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY STILL QUESTIONABLE...BUT A SLOWER ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE AT THE MOMENT. FOR KRHI/KATW/KGRB/KMTW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
ARRIVE AFTER 18Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FROM 16Z-18Z FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE KAUW/KCWA TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 231716
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THIS
LOW WILL STREAM IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH HAS DELAYED THESE
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES IN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
INDICATED. GIVEN THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
STATE. NEAR THE LAKE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE CONCERNED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPING HIGHS TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THICKER
CLOUDS AT BAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LEVELS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT BEAR THIS OUT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
TODAY.

THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD ADVECT IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOUDS...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND PUMPS MOIST
AIR IN FROM THE GULF AS DEW POINTS SOAR INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. GIVEN THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL LOWER POPS SUNDAY MORNING
AND FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE
LATER RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD ALSO MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

KURIMSKI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TRANSITIONING TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
BROUGHT A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS IN FORECAST GRIDS
BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. OTHER PERIODS
OF DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA...BUT THE MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING A HUGE QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...COOLING TO
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH. DID ADD SOME
SPRINKLES IN THE 18Z KRHI TAF FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD KAUW/KCWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY STILL QUESTIONABLE...BUT A SLOWER ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE AT THE MOMENT. FOR KRHI/KATW/KGRB/KMTW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
ARRIVE AFTER 18Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FROM 16Z-18Z FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE KAUW/KCWA TAFS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231716
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THIS
LOW WILL STREAM IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH HAS DELAYED THESE
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES IN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
INDICATED. GIVEN THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
STATE. NEAR THE LAKE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE CONCERNED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPING HIGHS TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THICKER
CLOUDS AT BAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LEVELS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT BEAR THIS OUT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
TODAY.

THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD ADVECT IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOUDS...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND PUMPS MOIST
AIR IN FROM THE GULF AS DEW POINTS SOAR INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. GIVEN THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL LOWER POPS SUNDAY MORNING
AND FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE
LATER RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD ALSO MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

KURIMSKI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TRANSITIONING TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
BROUGHT A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS IN FORECAST GRIDS
BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. OTHER PERIODS
OF DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA...BUT THE MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING A HUGE QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...COOLING TO
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH. DID ADD SOME
SPRINKLES IN THE 18Z KRHI TAF FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD KAUW/KCWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY STILL QUESTIONABLE...BUT A SLOWER ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE AT THE MOMENT. FOR KRHI/KATW/KGRB/KMTW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
ARRIVE AFTER 18Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FROM 16Z-18Z FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE KAUW/KCWA TAFS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 231716
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THIS
LOW WILL STREAM IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH HAS DELAYED THESE
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES IN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
INDICATED. GIVEN THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
STATE. NEAR THE LAKE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE CONCERNED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPING HIGHS TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THICKER
CLOUDS AT BAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LEVELS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT BEAR THIS OUT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
TODAY.

THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD ADVECT IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOUDS...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND PUMPS MOIST
AIR IN FROM THE GULF AS DEW POINTS SOAR INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. GIVEN THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL LOWER POPS SUNDAY MORNING
AND FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE
LATER RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD ALSO MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

KURIMSKI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TRANSITIONING TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
BROUGHT A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS IN FORECAST GRIDS
BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. OTHER PERIODS
OF DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA...BUT THE MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING A HUGE QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...COOLING TO
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH. DID ADD SOME
SPRINKLES IN THE 18Z KRHI TAF FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD KAUW/KCWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY STILL QUESTIONABLE...BUT A SLOWER ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE AT THE MOMENT. FOR KRHI/KATW/KGRB/KMTW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
ARRIVE AFTER 18Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FROM 16Z-18Z FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE KAUW/KCWA TAFS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231100
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THIS
LOW WILL STREAM IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH HAS DELAYED THESE
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES IN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
INDICATED. GIVEN THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
STATE. NEAR THE LAKE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE CONCERNED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPING HIGHS TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THICKER
CLOUDS AT BAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LEVELS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT BEAR THIS OUT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
TODAY.

THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD ADVECT IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOUDS...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND PUMPS MOIST
AIR IN FROM THE GULF AS DEW POINTS SOAR INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. GIVEN THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL LOWER POPS SUNDAY MORNING
AND FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE
LATER RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD ALSO MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.



KURIMSKI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TRANSITIONING TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
BROUGHT A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS IN FORECAST GRIDS
BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. OTHER PERIODS
OF DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA...BUT THE MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING A HUGE QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...COOLING TO
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER C/EC WI TODAY...WITH THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231100
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THIS
LOW WILL STREAM IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH HAS DELAYED THESE
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES IN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
INDICATED. GIVEN THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
STATE. NEAR THE LAKE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE CONCERNED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPING HIGHS TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THICKER
CLOUDS AT BAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LEVELS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT BEAR THIS OUT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
TODAY.

THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD ADVECT IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOUDS...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND PUMPS MOIST
AIR IN FROM THE GULF AS DEW POINTS SOAR INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. GIVEN THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL LOWER POPS SUNDAY MORNING
AND FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE
LATER RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD ALSO MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.



KURIMSKI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TRANSITIONING TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
BROUGHT A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS IN FORECAST GRIDS
BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. OTHER PERIODS
OF DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA...BUT THE MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING A HUGE QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...COOLING TO
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER C/EC WI TODAY...WITH THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231100
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THIS
LOW WILL STREAM IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH HAS DELAYED THESE
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES IN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
INDICATED. GIVEN THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
STATE. NEAR THE LAKE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE CONCERNED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPING HIGHS TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THICKER
CLOUDS AT BAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LEVELS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT BEAR THIS OUT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
TODAY.

THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD ADVECT IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOUDS...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND PUMPS MOIST
AIR IN FROM THE GULF AS DEW POINTS SOAR INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. GIVEN THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL LOWER POPS SUNDAY MORNING
AND FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE
LATER RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD ALSO MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.



KURIMSKI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TRANSITIONING TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
BROUGHT A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS IN FORECAST GRIDS
BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. OTHER PERIODS
OF DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA...BUT THE MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING A HUGE QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...COOLING TO
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER C/EC WI TODAY...WITH THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 230804
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THIS
LOW WILL STREAM IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH HAS DELAYED THESE
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES IN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
INDICATED. GIVEN THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
STATE. NEAR THE LAKE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE CONCERNED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPING HIGHS TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THICKER
CLOUDS AT BAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LEVELS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT BEAR THIS OUT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
TODAY.

THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD ADVECT IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOUDS...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND PUMPS MOIST
AIR IN FROM THE GULF AS DEW POINTS SOAR INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. GIVEN THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL LOWER POPS SUNDAY MORNING
AND FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE
LATER RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD ALSO MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.



KURIMSKI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TRANSITIONING TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
BROUGHT A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS IN FORECAST GRIDS
BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. OTHER PERIODS
OF DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA...BUT THE MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING A HUGE QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...COOLING TO
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER C/EC WI TONIGHT...WITH THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 230804
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THIS
LOW WILL STREAM IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH HAS DELAYED THESE
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES IN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
INDICATED. GIVEN THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
STATE. NEAR THE LAKE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE CONCERNED WITH CLOUD
COVER KEEPING HIGHS TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THICKER
CLOUDS AT BAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LEVELS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT BEAR THIS OUT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
TODAY.

THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD ADVECT IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOUDS...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND PUMPS MOIST
AIR IN FROM THE GULF AS DEW POINTS SOAR INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. GIVEN THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL LOWER POPS SUNDAY MORNING
AND FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE
LATER RAIN ARRIVAL SHOULD ALSO MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.



KURIMSKI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TRANSITIONING TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
BROUGHT A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS IN FORECAST GRIDS
BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. OTHER PERIODS
OF DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA...BUT THE MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING A HUGE QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...COOLING TO
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER C/EC WI TONIGHT...WITH THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 230353
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1053 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN
AREA OF HI PRES BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE MAIN FCST
OBSTACLES TO BE ON TEMPS FOR TNGT AND SAT. THE ISSUE FOR TNGT IS
HOW FAST TEMPS CAN FALL BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE AND WHETHER AN
ADVY IS NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ISSUE FOR SAT IS HOW WARM
CAN WE GET AS CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE AREA OF HI PRES WAS
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS NE WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY DID SHOW A BAND OF
HI CLOUDS GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF A SFC
LOW PARKED OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.

THE HI PRES WL GRADUALLY SLIDE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES TNGT...
BUT REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING NE WI WEATHER. MORE
OF A SW COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AN ONSET OF WEAK WAA
WL BEGIN TO TAP WARMER AIR OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THAT BEING
SAID...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS ARRIVING
OVRNGT)...A DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S NORTH...AROUND 40 DEGS SOUTH. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE NORTH AND A
POSSIBLE HEADLINE. IT WL BE A RACE AGAINST TIME WHETHER OR NOT THE
HI CLOUDS CAN OVERSPREAD NRN WI BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW 40 DEGS.
HAVE DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ISSUE A SHORT DURATION FROST
ADVY. DUE TO A SW FLOW TAKING OVER THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND...THIS
MAY WELL BE THE LAST FROST HEADLINE UNTIL NEXT AUTUMN.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON
SAT ARE A SUBTROPICAL UPR HI SITUATED OVER FLORIDA WITH A RDG AXIS
NW INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A CLOSED UPR LOW LOCATED OVER THE
CNTRL ROCKIES. A PREVAILING S-SW WIND BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WL
TAP GULF MOISTURE AND QUICKLY BRING THIS MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES. MID AND HI CLOUDS WL CONT
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI ON SAT WITH WAA CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. SOME
MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...BELIEVE
ANY PCPN WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID 70S FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS JET ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. WHILE WE HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER...IT/S JUST DIFFICULT TO TELL
SEVERAL DAYS AHEAD.

THERE SHOULD BE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES LOW AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MIGHT GIVE US A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY AND PART OF
THURSDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. THE GREATEST RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND JET DYNAMICS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER C/EC WI TONIGHT...WITH THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 230353
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1053 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN
AREA OF HI PRES BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE MAIN FCST
OBSTACLES TO BE ON TEMPS FOR TNGT AND SAT. THE ISSUE FOR TNGT IS
HOW FAST TEMPS CAN FALL BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE AND WHETHER AN
ADVY IS NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ISSUE FOR SAT IS HOW WARM
CAN WE GET AS CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE AREA OF HI PRES WAS
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS NE WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY DID SHOW A BAND OF
HI CLOUDS GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF A SFC
LOW PARKED OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.

THE HI PRES WL GRADUALLY SLIDE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES TNGT...
BUT REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING NE WI WEATHER. MORE
OF A SW COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AN ONSET OF WEAK WAA
WL BEGIN TO TAP WARMER AIR OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THAT BEING
SAID...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS ARRIVING
OVRNGT)...A DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S NORTH...AROUND 40 DEGS SOUTH. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE NORTH AND A
POSSIBLE HEADLINE. IT WL BE A RACE AGAINST TIME WHETHER OR NOT THE
HI CLOUDS CAN OVERSPREAD NRN WI BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW 40 DEGS.
HAVE DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ISSUE A SHORT DURATION FROST
ADVY. DUE TO A SW FLOW TAKING OVER THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND...THIS
MAY WELL BE THE LAST FROST HEADLINE UNTIL NEXT AUTUMN.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON
SAT ARE A SUBTROPICAL UPR HI SITUATED OVER FLORIDA WITH A RDG AXIS
NW INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A CLOSED UPR LOW LOCATED OVER THE
CNTRL ROCKIES. A PREVAILING S-SW WIND BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WL
TAP GULF MOISTURE AND QUICKLY BRING THIS MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES. MID AND HI CLOUDS WL CONT
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI ON SAT WITH WAA CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. SOME
MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...BELIEVE
ANY PCPN WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID 70S FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS JET ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. WHILE WE HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER...IT/S JUST DIFFICULT TO TELL
SEVERAL DAYS AHEAD.

THERE SHOULD BE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES LOW AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MIGHT GIVE US A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY AND PART OF
THURSDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. THE GREATEST RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND JET DYNAMICS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER C/EC WI TONIGHT...WITH THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




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