Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KGRB 210857
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
357 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

CLOUDY AND CHILLY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACRS NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A SHARP
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE JUST INLAND FM THE WEST COAST...AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A BLOCKING REGIME AS STG POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY BUILDS
WWD FM THE NORTH ATLANTIC...SETTLING IN N OF NEGATIVE ANOMALY
WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. THOUGH IT MAY MORPH IT/S STRUCTURE
SOME OVER TIME...ONCE IN PLACE...THE BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

GETTING LOCKED IN NR THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY OF A BLOCK GENERALLY
RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CASE WILL BE NO
DIFFERENT. THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WHILE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME MODERATION IS LIKELY DURING THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE SCT SHOWERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...PCPN AMNTS ARE
LIKELY TO END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

COLD CYCLONIC UPR FLOW WL DOMINATE THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THAT
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...A LOT OF WHICH WILL
FALL AS SNOW. TRAJECTORIES TURN NLY ENOUGH AND AIR/WATER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE SOME LAKE-
EFFECT IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY WL LIKELY BE DROPPING SWD AT THAT TIME.
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS WL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

OTHERWISE...BUILT TEMP GRIDS FROM A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WL PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AS TEMPS ALOFT WL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW THROUGHOUT. SO GENERATED PRECIP TYPE IN WX GRIDS USING
HOURLY TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A MID LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL KEEP THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY FOLLOW THE RIDGE...BUT MODELS WERE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING.

COLD AIR IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS SHOULD BE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

PRIMARY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACRS N-C WI THE NEXT 24
HRS...WITH MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE REST OF THE
AREA. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE PCPN
FALLING AS SNOW ACRS THE NW 1/2 OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI










000
FXUS63 KGRB 210857
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
357 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

CLOUDY AND CHILLY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACRS NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A SHARP
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE JUST INLAND FM THE WEST COAST...AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A BLOCKING REGIME AS STG POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY BUILDS
WWD FM THE NORTH ATLANTIC...SETTLING IN N OF NEGATIVE ANOMALY
WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. THOUGH IT MAY MORPH IT/S STRUCTURE
SOME OVER TIME...ONCE IN PLACE...THE BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

GETTING LOCKED IN NR THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY OF A BLOCK GENERALLY
RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CASE WILL BE NO
DIFFERENT. THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WHILE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME MODERATION IS LIKELY DURING THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE SCT SHOWERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...PCPN AMNTS ARE
LIKELY TO END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

COLD CYCLONIC UPR FLOW WL DOMINATE THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THAT
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...A LOT OF WHICH WILL
FALL AS SNOW. TRAJECTORIES TURN NLY ENOUGH AND AIR/WATER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE SOME LAKE-
EFFECT IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY WL LIKELY BE DROPPING SWD AT THAT TIME.
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS WL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

OTHERWISE...BUILT TEMP GRIDS FROM A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WL PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AS TEMPS ALOFT WL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW THROUGHOUT. SO GENERATED PRECIP TYPE IN WX GRIDS USING
HOURLY TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A MID LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL KEEP THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY FOLLOW THE RIDGE...BUT MODELS WERE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING.

COLD AIR IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS SHOULD BE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

PRIMARY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACRS N-C WI THE NEXT 24
HRS...WITH MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE REST OF THE
AREA. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE PCPN
FALLING AS SNOW ACRS THE NW 1/2 OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 210857
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
357 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

CLOUDY AND CHILLY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACRS NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A SHARP
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE JUST INLAND FM THE WEST COAST...AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A BLOCKING REGIME AS STG POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY BUILDS
WWD FM THE NORTH ATLANTIC...SETTLING IN N OF NEGATIVE ANOMALY
WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. THOUGH IT MAY MORPH IT/S STRUCTURE
SOME OVER TIME...ONCE IN PLACE...THE BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

GETTING LOCKED IN NR THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY OF A BLOCK GENERALLY
RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CASE WILL BE NO
DIFFERENT. THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WHILE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME MODERATION IS LIKELY DURING THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE SCT SHOWERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...PCPN AMNTS ARE
LIKELY TO END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

COLD CYCLONIC UPR FLOW WL DOMINATE THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THAT
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...A LOT OF WHICH WILL
FALL AS SNOW. TRAJECTORIES TURN NLY ENOUGH AND AIR/WATER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE SOME LAKE-
EFFECT IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY WL LIKELY BE DROPPING SWD AT THAT TIME.
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS WL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

OTHERWISE...BUILT TEMP GRIDS FROM A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WL PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AS TEMPS ALOFT WL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW THROUGHOUT. SO GENERATED PRECIP TYPE IN WX GRIDS USING
HOURLY TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A MID LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL KEEP THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY FOLLOW THE RIDGE...BUT MODELS WERE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING.

COLD AIR IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS SHOULD BE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

PRIMARY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACRS N-C WI THE NEXT 24
HRS...WITH MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE REST OF THE
AREA. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE PCPN
FALLING AS SNOW ACRS THE NW 1/2 OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI










000
FXUS63 KGRB 210857
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
357 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

CLOUDY AND CHILLY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACRS NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A SHARP
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE JUST INLAND FM THE WEST COAST...AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A BLOCKING REGIME AS STG POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY BUILDS
WWD FM THE NORTH ATLANTIC...SETTLING IN N OF NEGATIVE ANOMALY
WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. THOUGH IT MAY MORPH IT/S STRUCTURE
SOME OVER TIME...ONCE IN PLACE...THE BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

GETTING LOCKED IN NR THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY OF A BLOCK GENERALLY
RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CASE WILL BE NO
DIFFERENT. THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WHILE THERE ARE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME MODERATION IS LIKELY DURING THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE SCT SHOWERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...PCPN AMNTS ARE
LIKELY TO END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

COLD CYCLONIC UPR FLOW WL DOMINATE THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THAT
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...A LOT OF WHICH WILL
FALL AS SNOW. TRAJECTORIES TURN NLY ENOUGH AND AIR/WATER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE SOME LAKE-
EFFECT IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY WL LIKELY BE DROPPING SWD AT THAT TIME.
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS WL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

OTHERWISE...BUILT TEMP GRIDS FROM A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WL PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AS TEMPS ALOFT WL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW THROUGHOUT. SO GENERATED PRECIP TYPE IN WX GRIDS USING
HOURLY TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A MID LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL KEEP THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY FOLLOW THE RIDGE...BUT MODELS WERE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING.

COLD AIR IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS SHOULD BE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

PRIMARY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACRS N-C WI THE NEXT 24
HRS...WITH MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE REST OF THE
AREA. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE PCPN
FALLING AS SNOW ACRS THE NW 1/2 OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 210338
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1038 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS KICKED EAST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THAT LINGER LIGHT
PRECIP THAT HAS PLAGUED THE STATE TODAY WILL PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING AND THE SFC LOW SITTING IN LOWER MICHIGAN FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP AND SOME THINNING OF
THE CLOUD COVER...CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFTS SWINGS INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND FORCING WILL BE
VERY WEAK. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
POPS OTHER THAN SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS EASTWARD.

THE BIGGER FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN TYPE. TODAY HAD MORE SNOW
THAN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH FLAKES BEING REPORTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS WAUSAU AND MARSHFIELD THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WARM
BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THAT TOMORROWS THERMAL SET UP WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...FAVORED THE COLDER MODELS
WHEN DECIDING A PCPN TYPE. THIS HAD SNOW EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST FASTER...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH EVEN THOUGH IT MAY SNOW A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN SOME PLACES. GROUND IS WARMER FROM THE PAST
WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER AND NO ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
THROUGH OUT MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD
HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AND
STICKING IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR VILAS WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY (MUCH LIKE IT DAY TODAY).

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MAINLY ON THE GRASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW USUAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON WHETHER JET ENERGY ARRIVES FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVG...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. LIGHT PCPN WILL AFFECT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST.
PCPN TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW OVER NC WI...MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN
CENTRAL/FAR NE WI...AND MAINLY RAIN (WITH A LIGHT MIX EARLY) OVER
THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS. OCNL IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SNOW OVER NC WI. DURING THE EVENING...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER
OFF...EXCEPT OVER NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AND LINGER
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210338
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1038 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS KICKED EAST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THAT LINGER LIGHT
PRECIP THAT HAS PLAGUED THE STATE TODAY WILL PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING AND THE SFC LOW SITTING IN LOWER MICHIGAN FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP AND SOME THINNING OF
THE CLOUD COVER...CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFTS SWINGS INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND FORCING WILL BE
VERY WEAK. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
POPS OTHER THAN SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS EASTWARD.

THE BIGGER FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN TYPE. TODAY HAD MORE SNOW
THAN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH FLAKES BEING REPORTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS WAUSAU AND MARSHFIELD THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WARM
BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THAT TOMORROWS THERMAL SET UP WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...FAVORED THE COLDER MODELS
WHEN DECIDING A PCPN TYPE. THIS HAD SNOW EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST FASTER...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH EVEN THOUGH IT MAY SNOW A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN SOME PLACES. GROUND IS WARMER FROM THE PAST
WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER AND NO ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
THROUGH OUT MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD
HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AND
STICKING IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR VILAS WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY (MUCH LIKE IT DAY TODAY).

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MAINLY ON THE GRASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW USUAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON WHETHER JET ENERGY ARRIVES FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVG...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. LIGHT PCPN WILL AFFECT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST.
PCPN TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW OVER NC WI...MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN
CENTRAL/FAR NE WI...AND MAINLY RAIN (WITH A LIGHT MIX EARLY) OVER
THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS. OCNL IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SNOW OVER NC WI. DURING THE EVENING...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER
OFF...EXCEPT OVER NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AND LINGER
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
649 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS KICKED EAST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THAT LINGER LIGHT
PRECIP THAT HAS PLAGUED THE STATE TODAY WILL PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING AND THE SFC LOW SITTING IN LOWER MICHIGAN FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP AND SOME THINNING OF
THE CLOUD COVER...CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFTS SWINGS INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND FORCING WILL BE
VERY WEAK. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
POPS OTHER THAN SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS EASTWARD.

THE BIGGER FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN TYPE. TODAY HAD MORE SNOW
THAN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH FLAKES BEING REPORTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS WAUSAU AND MARSHFIELD THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WARM
BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THAT TOMORROWS THERMAL SET UP WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...FAVORED THE COLDER MODELS
WHEN DECIDING A PCPN TYPE. THIS HAD SNOW EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST FASTER...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH EVEN THOUGH IT MAY SNOW A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN SOME PLACES. GROUND IS WARMER FROM THE PAST
WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER AND NO ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
THROUGH OUT MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD
HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AND
STICKING IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR VILAS WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY (MUCH LIKE IT DAY TODAY).

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MAINLY ON THE GRASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW USUAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON WHETHER JET ENERGY ARRIVES FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LINGERING RAIN WILL EXIT NE WI EARLY THIS EVG...WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. LIGHT PCPN WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. PCPN TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW OVER NC
WI...MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN C/FAR NE WI...AND MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLE
LIGHT MIX EARLY) OVER THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS. LOCAL IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC WI.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVG...WITH THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
649 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS KICKED EAST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THAT LINGER LIGHT
PRECIP THAT HAS PLAGUED THE STATE TODAY WILL PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING AND THE SFC LOW SITTING IN LOWER MICHIGAN FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP AND SOME THINNING OF
THE CLOUD COVER...CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFTS SWINGS INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND FORCING WILL BE
VERY WEAK. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
POPS OTHER THAN SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS EASTWARD.

THE BIGGER FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN TYPE. TODAY HAD MORE SNOW
THAN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH FLAKES BEING REPORTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS WAUSAU AND MARSHFIELD THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WARM
BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THAT TOMORROWS THERMAL SET UP WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...FAVORED THE COLDER MODELS
WHEN DECIDING A PCPN TYPE. THIS HAD SNOW EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST FASTER...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH EVEN THOUGH IT MAY SNOW A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN SOME PLACES. GROUND IS WARMER FROM THE PAST
WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER AND NO ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
THROUGH OUT MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD
HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AND
STICKING IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR VILAS WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY (MUCH LIKE IT DAY TODAY).

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MAINLY ON THE GRASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW USUAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON WHETHER JET ENERGY ARRIVES FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LINGERING RAIN WILL EXIT NE WI EARLY THIS EVG...WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. LIGHT PCPN WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. PCPN TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW OVER NC
WI...MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN C/FAR NE WI...AND MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLE
LIGHT MIX EARLY) OVER THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS. LOCAL IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC WI.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVG...WITH THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 202003
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
303 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS KICKED EAST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THAT LINGER LIGHT
PRECIP THAT HAS PLAGUED THE STATE TODAY WILL PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING AND THE SFC LOW SITTING IN LOWER MICHIGAN FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP AND SOME THINNING OF
THE CLOUD COVER...CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFTS SWINGS INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND FORCING WILL BE
VERY WEAK. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
POPS OTHER THAN SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS EASTWARD.

THE BIGGER FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN TYPE. TODAY HAD MORE SNOW
THAN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH FLAKES BEING REPORTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS WAUSAU AND MARSHFIELD THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WARM
BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THAT TOMORROWS THERMAL SET UP WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...FAVORED THE COLDER MODELS
WHEN DECIDING A PCPN TYPE. THIS HAD SNOW EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST FASTER...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH EVEN THOUGH IT MAY SNOW A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN SOME PLACES. GROUND IS WARMER FROM THE PAST
WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER AND NO ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
THROUGH OUT MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD
HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AND
STICKING IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR VILAS WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY (MUCH LIKE IT DAY TODAY).

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MAINLY ON THE GRASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW USUAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON WHETHER JET ENERGY ARRIVES FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT MORE MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY. IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIP IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH MVFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS WHERE TONIGHTS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...PRECIP SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

GUSTY WNW WIND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202003
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
303 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS KICKED EAST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THAT LINGER LIGHT
PRECIP THAT HAS PLAGUED THE STATE TODAY WILL PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING AND THE SFC LOW SITTING IN LOWER MICHIGAN FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP AND SOME THINNING OF
THE CLOUD COVER...CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFTS SWINGS INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND FORCING WILL BE
VERY WEAK. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
POPS OTHER THAN SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS EASTWARD.

THE BIGGER FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN TYPE. TODAY HAD MORE SNOW
THAN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH FLAKES BEING REPORTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS WAUSAU AND MARSHFIELD THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WARM
BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THAT TOMORROWS THERMAL SET UP WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...FAVORED THE COLDER MODELS
WHEN DECIDING A PCPN TYPE. THIS HAD SNOW EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST FASTER...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH EVEN THOUGH IT MAY SNOW A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN SOME PLACES. GROUND IS WARMER FROM THE PAST
WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER AND NO ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
THROUGH OUT MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD
HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AND
STICKING IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR VILAS WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY (MUCH LIKE IT DAY TODAY).

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MAINLY ON THE GRASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW USUAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON WHETHER JET ENERGY ARRIVES FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT MORE MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY. IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIP IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH MVFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS WHERE TONIGHTS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...PRECIP SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

GUSTY WNW WIND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 202003
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
303 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS KICKED EAST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THAT LINGER LIGHT
PRECIP THAT HAS PLAGUED THE STATE TODAY WILL PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING AND THE SFC LOW SITTING IN LOWER MICHIGAN FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP AND SOME THINNING OF
THE CLOUD COVER...CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFTS SWINGS INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND FORCING WILL BE
VERY WEAK. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
POPS OTHER THAN SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS EASTWARD.

THE BIGGER FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN TYPE. TODAY HAD MORE SNOW
THAN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH FLAKES BEING REPORTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS WAUSAU AND MARSHFIELD THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WARM
BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THAT TOMORROWS THERMAL SET UP WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...FAVORED THE COLDER MODELS
WHEN DECIDING A PCPN TYPE. THIS HAD SNOW EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST FASTER...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH EVEN THOUGH IT MAY SNOW A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN SOME PLACES. GROUND IS WARMER FROM THE PAST
WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER AND NO ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
THROUGH OUT MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD
HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AND
STICKING IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR VILAS WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY (MUCH LIKE IT DAY TODAY).

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MAINLY ON THE GRASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW USUAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON WHETHER JET ENERGY ARRIVES FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT MORE MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY. IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIP IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH MVFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS WHERE TONIGHTS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...PRECIP SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

GUSTY WNW WIND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202003
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
303 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS KICKED EAST...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THAT LINGER LIGHT
PRECIP THAT HAS PLAGUED THE STATE TODAY WILL PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING AND THE SFC LOW SITTING IN LOWER MICHIGAN FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP AND SOME THINNING OF
THE CLOUD COVER...CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF BETTER LIFTS SWINGS INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND FORCING WILL BE
VERY WEAK. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
POPS OTHER THAN SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS EASTWARD.

THE BIGGER FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN TYPE. TODAY HAD MORE SNOW
THAN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH FLAKES BEING REPORTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS WAUSAU AND MARSHFIELD THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WARM
BIAS IN THE MODELS AND THAT TOMORROWS THERMAL SET UP WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...FAVORED THE COLDER MODELS
WHEN DECIDING A PCPN TYPE. THIS HAD SNOW EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST FASTER...WITH RAIN SNOW MIX IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH EVEN THOUGH IT MAY SNOW A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN SOME PLACES. GROUND IS WARMER FROM THE PAST
WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER AND NO ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
THROUGH OUT MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD
HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AND
STICKING IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN NEAR VILAS WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY (MUCH LIKE IT DAY TODAY).

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MAINLY ON THE GRASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW USUAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON WHETHER JET ENERGY ARRIVES FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT MORE MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY. IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIP IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH MVFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS WHERE TONIGHTS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...PRECIP SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

GUSTY WNW WIND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201656
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1156 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP AROUND THE LOW IS NOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND EXTENDS FROM WAUTOMA TO WAUSAUKEE.  FARTHER
WEST...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS CREATING A BAND OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ARE GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 30
KTS.  SOME SNOW BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL.  AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MODELS INDICATE THAT COMMA
HEAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA LATER IN THE MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE FGEN INDUCED RAIN
BAND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE THE RAIN
GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING.  SOME GUSTS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD EXCEED 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WILL BE ROTATING OVERHEAD DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST
OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE WILL
CARRY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PTYPE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD...PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING.  CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPS RISE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.  COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY...
BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT MORE MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY. IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIP IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH MVFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS WHERE TONIGHTS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...PRECIP SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

GUSTY WNW WIND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 201656
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1156 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP AROUND THE LOW IS NOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND EXTENDS FROM WAUTOMA TO WAUSAUKEE.  FARTHER
WEST...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS CREATING A BAND OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ARE GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 30
KTS.  SOME SNOW BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL.  AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MODELS INDICATE THAT COMMA
HEAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA LATER IN THE MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE FGEN INDUCED RAIN
BAND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE THE RAIN
GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING.  SOME GUSTS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD EXCEED 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WILL BE ROTATING OVERHEAD DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST
OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE WILL
CARRY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PTYPE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD...PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING.  CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPS RISE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.  COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY...
BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT MORE MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY. IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIP IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH MVFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS WHERE TONIGHTS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...PRECIP SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

GUSTY WNW WIND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 201656
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1156 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP AROUND THE LOW IS NOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND EXTENDS FROM WAUTOMA TO WAUSAUKEE.  FARTHER
WEST...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS CREATING A BAND OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ARE GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 30
KTS.  SOME SNOW BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL.  AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MODELS INDICATE THAT COMMA
HEAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA LATER IN THE MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE FGEN INDUCED RAIN
BAND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE THE RAIN
GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING.  SOME GUSTS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD EXCEED 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WILL BE ROTATING OVERHEAD DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST
OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE WILL
CARRY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PTYPE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD...PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING.  CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPS RISE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.  COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY...
BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT MORE MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY. IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIP IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH MVFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS WHERE TONIGHTS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...PRECIP SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

GUSTY WNW WIND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201656
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1156 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP AROUND THE LOW IS NOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND EXTENDS FROM WAUTOMA TO WAUSAUKEE.  FARTHER
WEST...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS CREATING A BAND OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ARE GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 30
KTS.  SOME SNOW BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL.  AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MODELS INDICATE THAT COMMA
HEAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA LATER IN THE MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE FGEN INDUCED RAIN
BAND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE THE RAIN
GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING.  SOME GUSTS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD EXCEED 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WILL BE ROTATING OVERHEAD DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST
OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE WILL
CARRY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PTYPE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD...PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING.  CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPS RISE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.  COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY...
BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT MORE MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY. IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIP IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH MVFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS WHERE TONIGHTS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...PRECIP SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

GUSTY WNW WIND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201100
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP AROUND THE LOW IS NOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND EXTENDS FROM WAUTOMA TO WAUSAUKEE.  FARTHER
WEST...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS CREATING A BAND OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ARE GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 30
KTS.  SOME SNOW BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL.  AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MODELS INDICATE THAT COMMA
HEAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA LATER IN THE MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE FGEN INDUCED RAIN
BAND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE THE RAIN
GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING.  SOME GUSTS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD EXCEED 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WILL BE ROTATING OVERHEAD DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST
OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE WILL
CARRY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PTYPE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD...PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING.  CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPS RISE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.  COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY...
BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

STEADY RAIN WITH IFR AND LIFR CIGS WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION. AS THE RAIN ENDS...CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. THEN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...AND MVFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201100
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP AROUND THE LOW IS NOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND EXTENDS FROM WAUTOMA TO WAUSAUKEE.  FARTHER
WEST...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS CREATING A BAND OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ARE GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 30
KTS.  SOME SNOW BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL.  AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MODELS INDICATE THAT COMMA
HEAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA LATER IN THE MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE FGEN INDUCED RAIN
BAND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE THE RAIN
GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING.  SOME GUSTS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD EXCEED 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WILL BE ROTATING OVERHEAD DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST
OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE WILL
CARRY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PTYPE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD...PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING.  CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPS RISE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.  COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY...
BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

STEADY RAIN WITH IFR AND LIFR CIGS WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION. AS THE RAIN ENDS...CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. THEN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...AND MVFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 200900
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP AROUND THE LOW IS NOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND EXTENDS FROM WAUTOMA TO WAUSAUKEE.  FARTHER
WEST...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS CREATING A BAND OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ARE GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 30
KTS.  SOME SNOW BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL.  AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MODELS INDICATE THAT COMMA
HEAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA LATER IN THE MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE FGEN INDUCED RAIN
BAND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE THE RAIN
GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING.  SOME GUSTS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD EXCEED 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WILL BE ROTATING OVERHEAD DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST
OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE WILL
CARRY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PTYPE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD...PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING.  CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPS RISE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.  COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY...
BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO FALL TO
IFR...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS THE RAIN ENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 200900
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP AROUND THE LOW IS NOW SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND EXTENDS FROM WAUTOMA TO WAUSAUKEE.  FARTHER
WEST...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS CREATING A BAND OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ARE GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 30
KTS.  SOME SNOW BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL.  AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MODELS INDICATE THAT COMMA
HEAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA LATER IN THE MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE FGEN INDUCED RAIN
BAND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE THE RAIN
GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING.  SOME GUSTS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD EXCEED 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WILL BE ROTATING OVERHEAD DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST
OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE WILL
CARRY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PTYPE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD...PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING.  CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPS RISE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.  COOL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY...
BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO FALL TO
IFR...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS THE RAIN ENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 200457
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1157 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE STARTING TONIGHT...WITH THE
FIRST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING MONDAY.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH. RAIN BECAME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE LOW DRIFTED NORTH...WITH OBS OCCASIONALLY
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN IL AND IN. MEANWHILE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
JET STREAM...WITH A NOTED STRONGER AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT ON MESOANALYSIS. THE REFLECTION OF THIS WAS SEEN AT THE SFC
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER NE MINNESOTA. HOW
ALL THESE FEATURES INTERACT AS THEY MERGE AND SHIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DETERMINE HOW PRECIP TREND PAN OUT TONIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...TODAYS PRECIP WAS SCATTERED AT BEST AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN EVEN CLEARED OUT AND WARMED UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER TREND TODAY...SLOWED DOWN PRECIP
ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. BETTER LIFT DOESNT REALLY OVERTAKE THE CWA
UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF MANY LOCATIONS
MAKE IT UNTIL SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING MUCH IF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IL WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE...THE DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SWING EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BETTER FORCING. THE TWO SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED. INTRODUCED HIGHER
END POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. COULDNT ADD MUCH DETAIL FROM THERE...AS
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THESE WEATHER FEATURES INTERACT AND WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING WILL BE. LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT SHOWED THE
BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER QPF IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY SOLUTION. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER LOW IN LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TAKING LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND GIVE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL A QUICK SHOT OF
EXTRA LIFT. INCREASED POPS MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWED THE EXIT OF
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MIRROR THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USHER OUT
THE NICE SPRING WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED STARTING MONDAY AND WONT DO ANYWHERE
QUICKLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER THAN ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
CLOSEST TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. INCREASINGLY
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS SMALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE
FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO FALL TO
IFR...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS THE RAIN ENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 200457
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1157 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE STARTING TONIGHT...WITH THE
FIRST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING MONDAY.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH. RAIN BECAME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE LOW DRIFTED NORTH...WITH OBS OCCASIONALLY
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN IL AND IN. MEANWHILE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
JET STREAM...WITH A NOTED STRONGER AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT ON MESOANALYSIS. THE REFLECTION OF THIS WAS SEEN AT THE SFC
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER NE MINNESOTA. HOW
ALL THESE FEATURES INTERACT AS THEY MERGE AND SHIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DETERMINE HOW PRECIP TREND PAN OUT TONIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...TODAYS PRECIP WAS SCATTERED AT BEST AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN EVEN CLEARED OUT AND WARMED UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER TREND TODAY...SLOWED DOWN PRECIP
ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. BETTER LIFT DOESNT REALLY OVERTAKE THE CWA
UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF MANY LOCATIONS
MAKE IT UNTIL SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING MUCH IF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IL WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE...THE DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SWING EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BETTER FORCING. THE TWO SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED. INTRODUCED HIGHER
END POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. COULDNT ADD MUCH DETAIL FROM THERE...AS
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THESE WEATHER FEATURES INTERACT AND WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING WILL BE. LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT SHOWED THE
BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER QPF IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY SOLUTION. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER LOW IN LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TAKING LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND GIVE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL A QUICK SHOT OF
EXTRA LIFT. INCREASED POPS MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWED THE EXIT OF
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MIRROR THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USHER OUT
THE NICE SPRING WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED STARTING MONDAY AND WONT DO ANYWHERE
QUICKLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER THAN ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
CLOSEST TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. INCREASINGLY
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS SMALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE
FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO FALL TO
IFR...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS THE RAIN ENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 192321
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
621 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE STARTING TONIGHT...WITH THE
FIRST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING MONDAY.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH. RAIN BECAME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE LOW DRIFTED NORTH...WITH OBS OCCASIONALLY
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN IL AND IN. MEANWHILE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
JET STREAM...WITH A NOTED STRONGER AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT ON MESOANALYSIS. THE REFLECTION OF THIS WAS SEEN AT THE SFC
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER NE MINNESOTA. HOW
ALL THESE FEATURES INTERACT AS THEY MERGE AND SHIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DETERMINE HOW PRECIP TREND PAN OUT TONIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...TODAYS PRECIP WAS SCATTERED AT BEST AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN EVEN CLEARED OUT AND WARMED UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER TREND TODAY...SLOWED DOWN PRECIP
ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. BETTER LIFT DOESNT REALLY OVERTAKE THE CWA
UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF MANY LOCATIONS
MAKE IT UNTIL SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING MUCH IF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IL WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE...THE DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SWING EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BETTER FORCING. THE TWO SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED. INTRODUCED HIGHER
END POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. COULDNT ADD MUCH DETAIL FROM THERE...AS
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THESE WEATHER FEATURES INTERACT AND WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING WILL BE. LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT SHOWED THE
BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER QPF IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY SOLUTION. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER LOW IN LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TAKING LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND GIVE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL A QUICK SHOT OF
EXTRA LIFT. INCREASED POPS MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWED THE EXIT OF
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MIRROR THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USHER OUT
THE NICE SPRING WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED STARTING MONDAY AND WONT DO ANYWHERE
QUICKLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER THAN ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
CLOSEST TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. INCREASINGLY
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS SMALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE
FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT TO THE WEST...STEADY RAIN WILL ARRIVE
LATER TONIGHT. THIS STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AND WELL INTO MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES. IFR CIGS
LOOK LIKELY...AND SOME THREAT OF LIFR CIGS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 192321
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
621 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE STARTING TONIGHT...WITH THE
FIRST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING MONDAY.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH. RAIN BECAME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE LOW DRIFTED NORTH...WITH OBS OCCASIONALLY
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN IL AND IN. MEANWHILE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
JET STREAM...WITH A NOTED STRONGER AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT ON MESOANALYSIS. THE REFLECTION OF THIS WAS SEEN AT THE SFC
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER NE MINNESOTA. HOW
ALL THESE FEATURES INTERACT AS THEY MERGE AND SHIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DETERMINE HOW PRECIP TREND PAN OUT TONIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...TODAYS PRECIP WAS SCATTERED AT BEST AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN EVEN CLEARED OUT AND WARMED UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER TREND TODAY...SLOWED DOWN PRECIP
ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. BETTER LIFT DOESNT REALLY OVERTAKE THE CWA
UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF MANY LOCATIONS
MAKE IT UNTIL SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING MUCH IF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IL WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE...THE DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SWING EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BETTER FORCING. THE TWO SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED. INTRODUCED HIGHER
END POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. COULDNT ADD MUCH DETAIL FROM THERE...AS
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THESE WEATHER FEATURES INTERACT AND WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING WILL BE. LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT SHOWED THE
BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER QPF IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY SOLUTION. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER LOW IN LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TAKING LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND GIVE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL A QUICK SHOT OF
EXTRA LIFT. INCREASED POPS MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWED THE EXIT OF
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MIRROR THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USHER OUT
THE NICE SPRING WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED STARTING MONDAY AND WONT DO ANYWHERE
QUICKLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER THAN ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
CLOSEST TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. INCREASINGLY
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS SMALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE
FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT TO THE WEST...STEADY RAIN WILL ARRIVE
LATER TONIGHT. THIS STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AND WELL INTO MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES. IFR CIGS
LOOK LIKELY...AND SOME THREAT OF LIFR CIGS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 191943
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE STARTING TONIGHT...WITH THE
FIRST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING MONDAY.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH. RAIN BECAME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE LOW DRIFTED NORTH...WITH OBS OCCASIONALLY
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN IL AND IN. MEANWHILE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
JET STREAM...WITH A NOTED STRONGER AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT ON MESOANALYSIS. THE REFLECTION OF THIS WAS SEEN AT THE SFC
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER NE MINNESOTA. HOW
ALL THESE FEATURES INTERACT AS THEY MERGE AND SHIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DETERMINE HOW PRECIP TREND PAN OUT TONIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...TODAYS PRECIP WAS SCATTERED AT BEST AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN EVEN CLEARED OUT AND WARMED UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER TREND TODAY...SLOWED DOWN PRECIP
ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. BETTER LIFT DOESNT REALLY OVERTAKE THE CWA
UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF MANY LOCATIONS
MAKE IT UNTIL SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING MUCH IF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IL WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE...THE DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SWING EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BETTER FORCING. THE TWO SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED. INTRODUCED HIGHER
END POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. COULDNT ADD MUCH DETAIL FROM THERE...AS
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THESE WEATHER FEATURES INTERACT AND WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING WILL BE. LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT SHOWED THE
BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER QPF IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY SOLUTION. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER LOW IN LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TAKING LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND GIVE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL A QUICK SHOT OF
EXTRA LIFT. INCREASED POPS MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWED THE EXIT OF
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MIRROR THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USHER OUT
THE NICE SPRING WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED STARTING MONDAY AND WONT DO ANYWHERE
QUICKLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER THAN ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
CLOSEST TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. INCREASINGLY
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS SMALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE
FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

BROKEN MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LOW PRESSURE THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN
AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...WITH RAIN ARRIVING LATE EARLY
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW END IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS CURRENT OBS IN
AREA OF INCOMING PRECIP IN IL/IN SHOW SCATTERED CIGS BELOW 500FT.
LIFR CONDITIONS IN CURRENT RAIN NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND GUIDANCE
WAFFLING ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GO...SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
IT TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
HEAVIEST RAIN AND WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER EASTERN TAF
SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FURTHER EAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
HOLDING TIGHT UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...TO NORTHEAST
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 191943
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE STARTING TONIGHT...WITH THE
FIRST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING MONDAY.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH. RAIN BECAME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE LOW DRIFTED NORTH...WITH OBS OCCASIONALLY
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN IL AND IN. MEANWHILE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
JET STREAM...WITH A NOTED STRONGER AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT ON MESOANALYSIS. THE REFLECTION OF THIS WAS SEEN AT THE SFC
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER NE MINNESOTA. HOW
ALL THESE FEATURES INTERACT AS THEY MERGE AND SHIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DETERMINE HOW PRECIP TREND PAN OUT TONIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...TODAYS PRECIP WAS SCATTERED AT BEST AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN EVEN CLEARED OUT AND WARMED UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER TREND TODAY...SLOWED DOWN PRECIP
ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. BETTER LIFT DOESNT REALLY OVERTAKE THE CWA
UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF MANY LOCATIONS
MAKE IT UNTIL SUNSET WITHOUT SEEING MUCH IF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IL WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE...THE DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SWING EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BETTER FORCING. THE TWO SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED. INTRODUCED HIGHER
END POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. COULDNT ADD MUCH DETAIL FROM THERE...AS
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THESE WEATHER FEATURES INTERACT AND WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING WILL BE. LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT SHOWED THE
BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER QPF IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY SOLUTION. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER LOW IN LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TAKING LONGER TO EXIT THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND GIVE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL A QUICK SHOT OF
EXTRA LIFT. INCREASED POPS MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWED THE EXIT OF
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MIRROR THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USHER OUT
THE NICE SPRING WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED STARTING MONDAY AND WONT DO ANYWHERE
QUICKLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER THAN ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
CLOSEST TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER
ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. INCREASINGLY
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IS SMALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE
FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

BROKEN MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LOW PRESSURE THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN
AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...WITH RAIN ARRIVING LATE EARLY
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW END IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS CURRENT OBS IN
AREA OF INCOMING PRECIP IN IL/IN SHOW SCATTERED CIGS BELOW 500FT.
LIFR CONDITIONS IN CURRENT RAIN NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND GUIDANCE
WAFFLING ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GO...SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
IT TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
HEAVIEST RAIN AND WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER EASTERN TAF
SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FURTHER EAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
HOLDING TIGHT UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...TO NORTHEAST
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 191658
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1158 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SPLIT FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA TO LOUISIANA.  EVEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO CREATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS.  A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPED UP
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WOOD COUNTY TO THE DELLS...AND WILL HAVE
TO CARRY AN ISOLATED MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
I-39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS.  AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT INTO A MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS.  DESPITE THIS...THE HIGHER RES MODELS AND RUC DEPICT
SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WHICH BEAR SOME WEIGHT GIVEN THE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER THE DELLS AT THIS HOUR.  AS A RESULT...QUITE DIFFICULT TO ADD
MUCH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING OTHER THAN
SAYING SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.  FORCING INCREASES OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A FGEN BAND MOVES ACROSS THAT
PART OF THE STATE.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INDUCED RAIN BAND WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  AM
THINKING EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO NE FLOW.  THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 60S OVER CENTRAL WI.  CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT
MUCH COOLER READINGS OVER EASTERN WI THOUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE
LOW FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF THIS LINE IN THE
MESOMODELS THOUGH.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  MEANWHILE...RAIN
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

MONDAY...THE FGEN RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND EXITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVERHEAD IN THE
WAKE OF THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE.  OTHERWISE...BECOMING BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL
AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW COULD STILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. DESPITE THE CALENDER STATING ITS LATE APRIL...SOME SNOW
IS IN THE FORECAST LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD BE SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

BROKEN MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LOW PRESSURE THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN
AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...WITH RAIN ARRIVING LATE EARLY
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW END IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS CURRENT OBS IN
AREA OF INCOMING PRECIP IN IL/IN SHOW SCATTERED CIGS BELOW 500FT.
LIFR CONDITIONS IN CURRENT RAIN NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND GUIDANCE
WAFFLING ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GO...SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
IT TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
HEAVIEST RAIN AND WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER EASTERN TAF
SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FURTHER EAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
HOLDING TIGHT UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...TO NORTHEAST
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 191658
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1158 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SPLIT FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA TO LOUISIANA.  EVEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO CREATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS.  A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPED UP
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WOOD COUNTY TO THE DELLS...AND WILL HAVE
TO CARRY AN ISOLATED MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
I-39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS.  AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT INTO A MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS.  DESPITE THIS...THE HIGHER RES MODELS AND RUC DEPICT
SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WHICH BEAR SOME WEIGHT GIVEN THE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER THE DELLS AT THIS HOUR.  AS A RESULT...QUITE DIFFICULT TO ADD
MUCH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING OTHER THAN
SAYING SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.  FORCING INCREASES OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A FGEN BAND MOVES ACROSS THAT
PART OF THE STATE.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INDUCED RAIN BAND WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  AM
THINKING EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO NE FLOW.  THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 60S OVER CENTRAL WI.  CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT
MUCH COOLER READINGS OVER EASTERN WI THOUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE
LOW FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF THIS LINE IN THE
MESOMODELS THOUGH.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  MEANWHILE...RAIN
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

MONDAY...THE FGEN RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND EXITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVERHEAD IN THE
WAKE OF THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE.  OTHERWISE...BECOMING BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL
AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW COULD STILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. DESPITE THE CALENDER STATING ITS LATE APRIL...SOME SNOW
IS IN THE FORECAST LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD BE SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

BROKEN MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LOW PRESSURE THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN
AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...WITH RAIN ARRIVING LATE EARLY
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW END IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS CURRENT OBS IN
AREA OF INCOMING PRECIP IN IL/IN SHOW SCATTERED CIGS BELOW 500FT.
LIFR CONDITIONS IN CURRENT RAIN NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND GUIDANCE
WAFFLING ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GO...SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
IT TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
HEAVIEST RAIN AND WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER EASTERN TAF
SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FURTHER EAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
HOLDING TIGHT UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...TO NORTHEAST
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 191051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SPLIT FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA TO LOUISIANA.  EVEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO CREATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS.  A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPED UP
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WOOD COUNTY TO THE DELLS...AND WILL HAVE
TO CARRY AN ISOLATED MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
I-39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS.  AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT INTO A MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS.  DESPITE THIS...THE HIGHER RES MODELS AND RUC DEPICT
SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WHICH BEAR SOME WEIGHT GIVEN THE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER THE DELLS AT THIS HOUR.  AS A RESULT...QUITE DIFFICULT TO ADD
MUCH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING OTHER THAN
SAYING SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.  FORCING INCREASES OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A FGEN BAND MOVES ACROSS THAT
PART OF THE STATE.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INDUCED RAIN BAND WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  AM
THINKING EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO NE FLOW.  THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 60S OVER CENTRAL WI.  CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT
MUCH COOLER READINGS OVER EASTERN WI THOUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE
LOW FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF THIS LINE IN THE
MESOMODELS THOUGH.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  MEANWHILE...RAIN
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

MONDAY...THE FGEN RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND EXITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVERHEAD IN THE
WAKE OF THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE.  OTHERWISE...BECOMING BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL
AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW COULD STILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. DESPITE THE CALENDER STATING ITS LATE APRIL...SOME SNOW
IS IN THE FORECAST LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD BE SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.  THEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES.  IFR CIGS LOOK
LIKELY...AND SOME THREAT OF LIFR CIGS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 191051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SPLIT FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA TO LOUISIANA.  EVEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO CREATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS.  A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPED UP
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WOOD COUNTY TO THE DELLS...AND WILL HAVE
TO CARRY AN ISOLATED MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
I-39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS.  AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT INTO A MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS.  DESPITE THIS...THE HIGHER RES MODELS AND RUC DEPICT
SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WHICH BEAR SOME WEIGHT GIVEN THE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER THE DELLS AT THIS HOUR.  AS A RESULT...QUITE DIFFICULT TO ADD
MUCH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING OTHER THAN
SAYING SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.  FORCING INCREASES OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A FGEN BAND MOVES ACROSS THAT
PART OF THE STATE.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INDUCED RAIN BAND WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  AM
THINKING EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO NE FLOW.  THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 60S OVER CENTRAL WI.  CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT
MUCH COOLER READINGS OVER EASTERN WI THOUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE
LOW FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF THIS LINE IN THE
MESOMODELS THOUGH.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  MEANWHILE...RAIN
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

MONDAY...THE FGEN RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND EXITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVERHEAD IN THE
WAKE OF THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE.  OTHERWISE...BECOMING BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL
AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW COULD STILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. DESPITE THE CALENDER STATING ITS LATE APRIL...SOME SNOW
IS IN THE FORECAST LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD BE SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.  THEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES.  IFR CIGS LOOK
LIKELY...AND SOME THREAT OF LIFR CIGS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190827
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SPLIT FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA TO LOUISIANA.  EVEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO CREATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS.  A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPED UP
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WOOD COUNTY TO THE DELLS...AND WILL HAVE
TO CARRY AN ISOLATED MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
I-39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS.  AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT INTO A MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS.  DESPITE THIS...THE HIGHER RES MODELS AND RUC DEPICT
SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WHICH BEAR SOME WEIGHT GIVEN THE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER THE DELLS AT THIS HOUR.  AS A RESULT...QUITE DIFFICULT TO ADD
MUCH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING OTHER THAN
SAYING SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.  FORCING INCREASES OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A FGEN BAND MOVES ACROSS THAT
PART OF THE STATE.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INDUCED RAIN BAND WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  AM
THINKING EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO NE FLOW.  THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 60S OVER CENTRAL WI.  CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT
MUCH COOLER READINGS OVER EASTERN WI THOUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE
LOW FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF THIS LINE IN THE
MESOMODELS THOUGH.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  MEANWHILE...RAIN
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

MONDAY...THE FGEN RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND EXITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVERHEAD IN THE
WAKE OF THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE.  OTHERWISE...BECOMING BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL
AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW COULD STILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. DESPITE THE CALENDER STATING ITS LATE APRIL...SOME SNOW
IS IN THE FORECAST LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD BE SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
TAF SITES. TIMING OF THE RAIN SHOWERS IS A BIT TENUOUS AS THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP MODELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 190827
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SPLIT FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA TO LOUISIANA.  EVEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO CREATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS.  A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPED UP
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WOOD COUNTY TO THE DELLS...AND WILL HAVE
TO CARRY AN ISOLATED MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
I-39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS.  AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT INTO A MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS.  DESPITE THIS...THE HIGHER RES MODELS AND RUC DEPICT
SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WHICH BEAR SOME WEIGHT GIVEN THE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER THE DELLS AT THIS HOUR.  AS A RESULT...QUITE DIFFICULT TO ADD
MUCH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING OTHER THAN
SAYING SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.  FORCING INCREASES OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A FGEN BAND MOVES ACROSS THAT
PART OF THE STATE.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INDUCED RAIN BAND WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  AM
THINKING EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO NE FLOW.  THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 60S OVER CENTRAL WI.  CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT
MUCH COOLER READINGS OVER EASTERN WI THOUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE
LOW FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF THIS LINE IN THE
MESOMODELS THOUGH.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  MEANWHILE...RAIN
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

MONDAY...THE FGEN RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND EXITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVERHEAD IN THE
WAKE OF THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE.  OTHERWISE...BECOMING BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL
AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW COULD STILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. DESPITE THE CALENDER STATING ITS LATE APRIL...SOME SNOW
IS IN THE FORECAST LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD BE SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
TAF SITES. TIMING OF THE RAIN SHOWERS IS A BIT TENUOUS AS THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP MODELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190827
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SPLIT FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA TO LOUISIANA.  EVEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO CREATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS.  A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPED UP
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WOOD COUNTY TO THE DELLS...AND WILL HAVE
TO CARRY AN ISOLATED MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
I-39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS.  AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT INTO A MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS.  DESPITE THIS...THE HIGHER RES MODELS AND RUC DEPICT
SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WHICH BEAR SOME WEIGHT GIVEN THE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER THE DELLS AT THIS HOUR.  AS A RESULT...QUITE DIFFICULT TO ADD
MUCH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING OTHER THAN
SAYING SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.  FORCING INCREASES OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A FGEN BAND MOVES ACROSS THAT
PART OF THE STATE.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INDUCED RAIN BAND WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  AM
THINKING EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO NE FLOW.  THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 60S OVER CENTRAL WI.  CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT
MUCH COOLER READINGS OVER EASTERN WI THOUGH.

TONIGHT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE
LOW FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF THIS LINE IN THE
MESOMODELS THOUGH.  COMMA HEAD PRECIP FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  MEANWHILE...RAIN
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RECIPE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

MONDAY...THE FGEN RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING AND EXITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVERHEAD IN THE
WAKE OF THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE.  OTHERWISE...BECOMING BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL
AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW COULD STILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. DESPITE THE CALENDER STATING ITS LATE APRIL...SOME SNOW
IS IN THE FORECAST LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD BE SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
TAF SITES. TIMING OF THE RAIN SHOWERS IS A BIT TENUOUS AS THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP MODELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD AND WILL REMAIN DRY
AND QUIET. THE STRONG SFC HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SIT JUST TO OUR
EAST...LEAVING WISCONSIN IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN WEATHER
PATTERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE QUESTION AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE
WHICH FEATURE WILL DOMINATE...THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX BEING
EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR THY DRY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS ROOTED IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...LEANED TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE AND THUS
THE DRIER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAYS PRECIP CHANCES. THIS
LINED UP WELL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NEWEST
FORECASTS...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER
BUT STILL SHOWING THE WEAKER TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAA REGIMEN TAKES OVER AND
THE DISTURBANCE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. KEPT THINGS DRY UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY...AS
WEAK FORCING AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST. AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN MINNESOTA MOVES INTO NW WISCONSIN
AND POPS INCREASE. SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z...WITH THE NORTHWOODS BEING THE BETTER
SPOT OF ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW.
IT WAS HARD TO PUT DETAIL OR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BECOME...AS ANOTHER SFC LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW SHIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA. STILL COME DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BETTER FORCING DOESNT ARRIVE
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY...SO BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE EAST. WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND BAY WILL STILL KEEP IT
COOLER THAN IT COULD BE...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHOULD BRING A DECENT AREA OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT NIGHT. WIND IS TOO WESTERLY FOR
MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
TAF SITES. TIMING OF THE RAIN SHOWERS IS A BIT TENUOUS AS THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP MODELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD AND WILL REMAIN DRY
AND QUIET. THE STRONG SFC HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SIT JUST TO OUR
EAST...LEAVING WISCONSIN IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN WEATHER
PATTERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE QUESTION AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE
WHICH FEATURE WILL DOMINATE...THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX BEING
EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR THY DRY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS ROOTED IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...LEANED TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE AND THUS
THE DRIER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAYS PRECIP CHANCES. THIS
LINED UP WELL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NEWEST
FORECASTS...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER
BUT STILL SHOWING THE WEAKER TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAA REGIMEN TAKES OVER AND
THE DISTURBANCE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. KEPT THINGS DRY UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY...AS
WEAK FORCING AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST. AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN MINNESOTA MOVES INTO NW WISCONSIN
AND POPS INCREASE. SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z...WITH THE NORTHWOODS BEING THE BETTER
SPOT OF ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW.
IT WAS HARD TO PUT DETAIL OR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BECOME...AS ANOTHER SFC LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW SHIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA. STILL COME DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BETTER FORCING DOESNT ARRIVE
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY...SO BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE EAST. WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND BAY WILL STILL KEEP IT
COOLER THAN IT COULD BE...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHOULD BRING A DECENT AREA OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT NIGHT. WIND IS TOO WESTERLY FOR
MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
TAF SITES. TIMING OF THE RAIN SHOWERS IS A BIT TENUOUS AS THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP MODELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 182323
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
623 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD AND WILL REMAIN DRY
AND QUIET. THE STRONG SFC HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SIT JUST TO OUR
EAST...LEAVING WISCONSIN IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN WEATHER
PATTERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE QUESTION AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE
WHICH FEATURE WILL DOMINATE...THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX BEING
EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR THY DRY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS ROOTED IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...LEANED TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE AND THUS
THE DRIER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAYS PRECIP CHANCES. THIS
LINED UP WELL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NEWEST
FORECASTS...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER
BUT STILL SHOWING THE WEAKER TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAA REGIMEN TAKES OVER AND
THE DISTURBANCE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. KEPT THINGS DRY UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY...AS
WEAK FORCING AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST. AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN MINNESOTA MOVES INTO NW WISCONSIN
AND POPS INCREASE. SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z...WITH THE NORTHWOODS BEING THE BETTER
SPOT OF ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW.
IT WAS HARD TO PUT DETAIL OR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BECOME...AS ANOTHER SFC LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW SHIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA. STILL COME DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BETTER FORCING DOESNT ARRIVE
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY...SO BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE EAST. WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND BAY WILL STILL KEEP IT
COOLER THAN IT COULD BE...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHOULD BRING A DECENT AREA OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT NIGHT. WIND IS TOO WESTERLY FOR
MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 182323
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
623 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD AND WILL REMAIN DRY
AND QUIET. THE STRONG SFC HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SIT JUST TO OUR
EAST...LEAVING WISCONSIN IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN WEATHER
PATTERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE QUESTION AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE
WHICH FEATURE WILL DOMINATE...THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX BEING
EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR THY DRY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS ROOTED IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...LEANED TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE AND THUS
THE DRIER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAYS PRECIP CHANCES. THIS
LINED UP WELL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NEWEST
FORECASTS...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER
BUT STILL SHOWING THE WEAKER TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAA REGIMEN TAKES OVER AND
THE DISTURBANCE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. KEPT THINGS DRY UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY...AS
WEAK FORCING AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST. AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN MINNESOTA MOVES INTO NW WISCONSIN
AND POPS INCREASE. SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z...WITH THE NORTHWOODS BEING THE BETTER
SPOT OF ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW.
IT WAS HARD TO PUT DETAIL OR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BECOME...AS ANOTHER SFC LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW SHIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA. STILL COME DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BETTER FORCING DOESNT ARRIVE
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY...SO BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE EAST. WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND BAY WILL STILL KEEP IT
COOLER THAN IT COULD BE...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHOULD BRING A DECENT AREA OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT NIGHT. WIND IS TOO WESTERLY FOR
MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 181956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD AND WILL REMAIN DRY
AND QUIET. THE STRONG SFC HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SIT JUST TO OUR
EAST...LEAVING WISCONSIN IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN WEATHER
PATTERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE QUESTION AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE
WHICH FEATURE WILL DOMINATE...THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX BEING
EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR THY DRY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS ROOTED IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...LEANED TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE AND THUS
THE DRIER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAYS PRECIP CHANCES. THIS
LINED UP WELL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NEWEST
FORECASTS...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER
BUT STILL SHOWING THE WEAKER TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAA REGIMEN TAKES OVER AND
THE DISTURBANCE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. KEPT THINGS DRY UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY...AS
WEAK FORCING AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST. AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN MINNESOTA MOVES INTO NW WISCONSIN
AND POPS INCREASE. SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z...WITH THE NORTHWOODS BEING THE BETTER
SPOT OF ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW.
IT WAS HARD TO PUT DETAIL OR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BECOME...AS ANOTHER SFC LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW SHIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA. STILL COME DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BETTER FORCING DOESNT ARRIVE
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY...SO BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE EAST. WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND BAY WILL STILL KEEP IT
COOLER THAN IT COULD BE...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHOULD BRING A DECENT AREA OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT NIGHT. WIND IS TOO WESTERLY FOR
MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE WINDS TO
CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...WITH THE GUSTIEST WINDS
IN EASTERN TAF SITES.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING VFR
CLOUD COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LLWS THROUGH ABOUT
1500FT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS MIX AGAIN.

VFR CIGS WILL STICK AROUND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER DAYBREAK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND PCPN EXPECTED. EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDDAY IF NOT MOST OF SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ALLEN








000
FXUS63 KGRB 181956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD AND WILL REMAIN DRY
AND QUIET. THE STRONG SFC HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SIT JUST TO OUR
EAST...LEAVING WISCONSIN IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN WEATHER
PATTERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE QUESTION AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE
WHICH FEATURE WILL DOMINATE...THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX BEING
EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR THY DRY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS ROOTED IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...LEANED TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE AND THUS
THE DRIER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAYS PRECIP CHANCES. THIS
LINED UP WELL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NEWEST
FORECASTS...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER
BUT STILL SHOWING THE WEAKER TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAA REGIMEN TAKES OVER AND
THE DISTURBANCE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. KEPT THINGS DRY UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY...AS
WEAK FORCING AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST. AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN MINNESOTA MOVES INTO NW WISCONSIN
AND POPS INCREASE. SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z...WITH THE NORTHWOODS BEING THE BETTER
SPOT OF ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW.
IT WAS HARD TO PUT DETAIL OR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BECOME...AS ANOTHER SFC LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW SHIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA. STILL COME DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BETTER FORCING DOESNT ARRIVE
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY...SO BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE EAST. WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND BAY WILL STILL KEEP IT
COOLER THAN IT COULD BE...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHOULD BRING A DECENT AREA OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT NIGHT. WIND IS TOO WESTERLY FOR
MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE WINDS TO
CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...WITH THE GUSTIEST WINDS
IN EASTERN TAF SITES.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING VFR
CLOUD COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LLWS THROUGH ABOUT
1500FT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS MIX AGAIN.

VFR CIGS WILL STICK AROUND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER DAYBREAK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND PCPN EXPECTED. EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDDAY IF NOT MOST OF SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 181628
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1128 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

AFTER FURTHER COORDINATION WITH ARX AND THE DNR...WILL ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WOOD COUNTY. THE COMBO OF HUMIDITIES FALLING NEAR
20 PCT THIS AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...WIND SPEEDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
THERE. THIS RED FLAG WARNING WILL TARGET THE PINE COUNTRY OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

ADDITIONALLY...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED OVER GREEN BAY.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND ARE GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS AT THE
GRB AIRPORT. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE BAY ARE ALSO OCCURRING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE
CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA.  NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
GUSTY FOR PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS TODAY...AND PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

TODAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
MID-MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING VERY
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY.
THOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP MODERATE THE DRY
AIR OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...MODEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THIS VERY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION...AROUND 900MB.  SO WAS
AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING HUMIDITIES TODAY...WHICH SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND TO AROUND 25 PCT OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING CRITICALLY SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  STILL WAITING FOR A
FINAL DECISION FROM THE DNR CONCERNING A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH SHOULD
HAVE BY 5 AM.  OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A SUNNY AND COOLER DAY.  HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER...WINDS BELOW 900MB WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
CONTINUE TO ADVECT VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR WILL
HAVE TO BE OVERCOME...AND THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT
OVER THE WEST.  WILL MODIFY PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SWINGS NE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  FORCING WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...THOUGH THE LEAD BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DECAY DURING THE MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE DRY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.  THEN A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.  TEMPS ARE DIFFICULT
BECAUSE OF THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER...AND EAST
WINDS.  HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SOME SINCE TEMPS DO NOT TYPICALLY RISE
WELL WHEN THERE IS CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS.  PRECIP WILL ALSO
LIKELY HOLD TEMPS BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  SO
WENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

RAINFALL TOTALS STILL PROBLEMATIC SUNDAY NIGHT AS TWO SEPARATE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...MEANWHILE A FAIRLY
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS ON TRACK OF
SYSTEM DUE TO CLOSING UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF
WOULD SUGGEST THAT MUCH NEEDED RAIN WOULD FALL ACROSS THE REGION.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN WOULD FALL. MODEL
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...THUS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. MONDAY IS NOT MUCH CLEARER AS SOME
OF THE MODELS BRING DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
TREND IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN DO NOT SHARE THIS TREND
WITH THE WRF/GFS...THUS WILL KEEP SCATTERED DEPICTION/WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

AS UPPER LOW CLOSES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL BRING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE DAY. AT SOME POINT...THERE COULD BE A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE WINDS TO
CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...WITH THE GUSTIEST WINDS
IN EASTERN TAF SITES.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING VFR
CLOUD COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LLWS THROUGH ABOUT
1500FT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS MIX AGAIN.

VFR CIGS WILL STICK AROUND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER DAYBREAK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND PCPN EXPECTED. EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDDAY IF NOT MOST OF SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ035.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MPC
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 181628
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1128 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

AFTER FURTHER COORDINATION WITH ARX AND THE DNR...WILL ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WOOD COUNTY. THE COMBO OF HUMIDITIES FALLING NEAR
20 PCT THIS AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...WIND SPEEDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
THERE. THIS RED FLAG WARNING WILL TARGET THE PINE COUNTRY OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

ADDITIONALLY...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED OVER GREEN BAY.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND ARE GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS AT THE
GRB AIRPORT. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE BAY ARE ALSO OCCURRING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN AND THE
CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA.  NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
GUSTY FOR PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS TODAY...AND PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

TODAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
MID-MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING VERY
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY.
THOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP MODERATE THE DRY
AIR OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...MODEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THIS VERY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION...AROUND 900MB.  SO WAS
AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING HUMIDITIES TODAY...WHICH SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND TO AROUND 25 PCT OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING CRITICALLY SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  STILL WAITING FOR A
FINAL DECISION FROM THE DNR CONCERNING A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH SHOULD
HAVE BY 5 AM.  OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A SUNNY AND COOLER DAY.  HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER...WINDS BELOW 900MB WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
CONTINUE TO ADVECT VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR WILL
HAVE TO BE OVERCOME...AND THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT
OVER THE WEST.  WILL MODIFY PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SWINGS NE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  FORCING WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...THOUGH THE LEAD BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DECAY DURING THE MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE DRY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.  THEN A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.  TEMPS ARE DIFFICULT
BECAUSE OF THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER...AND EAST
WINDS.  HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SOME SINCE TEMPS DO NOT TYPICALLY RISE
WELL WHEN THERE IS CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS.  PRECIP WILL ALSO
LIKELY HOLD TEMPS BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  SO
WENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

RAINFALL TOTALS STILL PROBLEMATIC SUNDAY NIGHT AS TWO SEPARATE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...MEANWHILE A FAIRLY
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS ON TRACK OF
SYSTEM DUE TO CLOSING UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF
WOULD SUGGEST THAT MUCH NEEDED RAIN WOULD FALL ACROSS THE REGION.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN WOULD FALL. MODEL
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT...THUS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. MONDAY IS NOT MUCH CLEARER AS SOME
OF THE MODELS BRING DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
TREND IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN DO NOT SHARE THIS TREND
WITH THE WRF/GFS...THUS WILL KEEP SCATTERED DEPICTION/WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

AS UPPER LOW CLOSES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL BRING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE DAY. AT SOME POINT...THERE COULD BE A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE WINDS TO
CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...WITH THE GUSTIEST WINDS
IN EASTERN TAF SITES.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING VFR
CLOUD COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LLWS THROUGH ABOUT
1500FT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS MIX AGAIN.

VFR CIGS WILL STICK AROUND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER DAYBREAK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND PCPN EXPECTED. EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDDAY IF NOT MOST OF SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ035.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MPC
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ALLEN








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities