000
FXUS63 KGRB 240350
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
NO CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES TONIGHT. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DIMINISHING AS EXPECTED...AND THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF
0.26 INCHES...WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
THINK EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP THIS AREA RELATIVELY SAFER
FROM FROST THAT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. BUT OUTLYING AREAS COULD
STILL SEE PATCHY FROST.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...TAKING WITH IT ANY LEFT OVER
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP STARTING
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SIG PRECIP PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DIDNT NEED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
ALL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
BEING FILTERED IN FROM CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...SO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GROWING COMMUNITY AND SEEM
REASONABLE. DEBATED ADDING MARATHON COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. WILL ADD LOCALIZED FREEZE WORDING TO THE FROST ADVISORY THAT
IS CURRENT IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INSTEAD.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. STILL HAD TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN A WARMUP AND TSTM POTENTIAL INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/W TROF AND A JET STREAK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MIN
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON THE ECMWF...WHICH IS REGARDED AS THE BEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SUPPORTS A COMPLETELY DRY FCST. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC...THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET...AND EVEN A FEW OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER GFS/GEFS/GEM
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW PART OF
THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
GOOD FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO AN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE FROST
FORMATION ON AIRCRAFT LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ020-022-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-
021.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........MPC
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
000
FXUS63 KGRB 240157
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
857 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
NO CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES TONIGHT. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DIMINISHING AS EXPECTED...AND THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF
0.26 INCHES...WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
THINK EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP THIS AREA RELATIVELY SAFER
FROM FROST THAT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. BUT OUTLYING AREAS COULD
STILL SEE PATCHY FROST.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...TAKING WITH IT ANY LEFT OVER
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP STARTING
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SIG PRECIP PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DIDNT NEED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
ALL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
BEING FILTERED IN FROM CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...SO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GROWING COMMUNITY AND SEEM
REASONABLE. DEBATED ADDING MARATHON COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. WILL ADD LOCALIZED FREEZE WORDING TO THE FROST ADVISORY THAT
IS CURRENT IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INSTEAD.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. STILL HAD TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN A WARMUP AND TSTM POTENTIAL INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/W TROF AND A JET STREAK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MIN
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON THE ECMWF...WHICH IS REGARDED AS THE BEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SUPPORTS A COMPLETELY DRY FCST. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC...THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET...AND EVEN A FEW OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER GFS/GEFS/GEM
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW PART OF
THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
GOOD FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO AN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
MID-EVENING...WHICH WILL PROMOTE FROST FORMATION ON AIRCRAFT LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........MPC
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
000
FXUS63 KGRB 232334
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...TAKING WITH IT ANY LEFT OVER
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP STARTING
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SIG PRECIP PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DIDNT NEED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
ALL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
BEING FILTERED IN FROM CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...SO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GROWING COMMUNITY AND SEEM
REASONABLE. DEBATED ADDING MARATHON COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. WILL ADD LOCALIZED FREEZE WORDING TO THE FROST ADVISORY THAT
IS CURRENT IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INSTEAD.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. STILL HAD TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN A WARMUP AND TSTM POTENTIAL INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/W TROF AND A JET STREAK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MIN
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON THE ECMWF...WHICH IS REGARDED AS THE BEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SUPPORTS A COMPLETELY DRY FCST. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC...THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET...AND EVEN A FEW OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER GFS/GEFS/GEM
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW PART OF
THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
GOOD FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO AN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
MID-EVENING...WHICH WILL PROMOTE FROST FORMATION ON AIRCRAFT LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
000
FXUS63 KGRB 231941
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...TAKING WITH IT ANY LEFT OVER
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP STARTING
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SIG PRECIP PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DIDNT NEED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
ALL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
BEING FILTERED IN FROM CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...SO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GROWING COMMUNITY AND SEEM
REASONABLE. DEBATED ADDING MARATHON COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. WILL ADD LOCALIZED FREEZE WORDING TO THE FROST ADVISORY THAT
IS CURRENT IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INSTEAD.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. STILL HAD TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN A WARMUP AND TSTM POTENTIAL INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/W TROF AND A JET STREAK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MIN
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON THE ECMWF...WHICH IS REGARDED AS THE BEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SUPPORTS A COMPLETELY DRY FCST. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC...THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET...AND EVEN A FEW OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER GFS/GEFS/GEM
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW PART OF
THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT AND REMAINING LIGHT TOMORROW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......WOLF
000
FXUS63 KGRB 231704
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS...AND WL
REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MOST PERSISTENT FEATURE WL
BE UPR LOW OVER THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM...UPR TROF NOW CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES RGN WL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTG E NEXT WEEK. A SHARP/SOMEWHAT BLOCK UPR
RIDGE WL PERSIST BTWN THE 2 TROFS...AND EXTEND FM THE PLAINS NWD
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
NWLY UPR FLOW DOWN THE PLAINS RIDGE AND INTO THE ERN TROF WL BRING
A SURGE OF CHILLY CANADIAN AIR SWD...RESULTING IN MUCH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD. BUT TEMPS SHOULD TREND
UPWARD...AND BE ABV NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. THE NEXT CHC
FOR SIG PCPN PROBABLY WON/T COME UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
RENMANTS OF PCPN BAND IN UPR DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING AS THEY
SWING BACK SE ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN SHOULD EXIT
THE E THIS MORNING. CLDS WL LINGER FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER THE
PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING SEWD ACRS
MN/LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IT SHOULD BEING OVERSPREADING THE FCST AREA
ARND DAYBREAK. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A RATHER SOLID-LOOKING SC
DECK WAS THAT WAS SURGING SWWD FM SE ONTARIO. BUT STG SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TDA IN THE WAKE OF NRN SHRTWV THAT WAS
DIGGING SWD AND PHASING WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE RGN. SO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS THE AREA. DESPITE THAT...RATHER STRONG N
WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS 10-15F DEG BLO NORMAL.
SFC HIGH WL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...COOL DRY
AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH UNSEASONABLY
COLD LEVELS. WENT AOB GUID FOR MINS MOST AREAS. WL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND POST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN WE COULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH WIND IN THE
FAR E TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT AND PREVENT FROST. BUT GIVEN HOW
LATE WE ARE INTO THE SPRING...DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND POST ADVSIORY EVEN WHERE FROST ISN/T A CERTAINTY. WL
DETAIL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NPW PRODUCT.
THE WARMING TREND WL START FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE E.
EVEN THOUGH THERE WL BE AN ELY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH...WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND MOST GUID
MAXES SEEMED TOO COOL...ESP OVER E-C WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE RIDGE.
NEW ECMWF DOES PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE. THINKING THERE WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS/WRF
HAVE BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT IF PRECIPITATION WOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA. REALLY LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT AND THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS FOLLOWED THIS TREND.
THINK MUCH OF SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE DRY. DID KEEP A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST JUST IN CASE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLIP INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONLY WENT WITH
SHOWERS AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEADING INTO A DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN
WARM FRONT...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY
COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THE STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
BASED ON SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO LESS CLOUD
COVER AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. FROST IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE TOWARDS IRON MOUNTAIN AREA
WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARDS TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL. MIN
TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER
FORECASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT AND REMAINING LIGHT TOMORROW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......WOLF
000
FXUS63 KGRB 230849
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
349 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS...AND WL
REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MOST PERSISTENT FEATURE WL
BE UPR LOW OVER THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM...UPR TROF NOW CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES RGN WL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTG E NEXT WEEK. A SHARP/SOMEWHAT BLOCK UPR
RIDGE WL PERSIST BTWN THE 2 TROFS...AND EXTEND FM THE PLAINS NWD
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
NWLY UPR FLOW DOWN THE PLAINS RIDGE AND INTO THE ERN TROF WL BRING
A SURGE OF CHILLY CANADIAN AIR SWD...RESULTING IN MUCH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD. BUT TEMPS SHOULD TREND
UPWARD...AND BE ABV NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. THE NEXT CHC
FOR SIG PCPN PROBABLY WON/T COME UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
RENMANTS OF PCPN BAND IN UPR DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING AS THEY
SWING BACK SE ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN SHOULD EXIT
THE E THIS MORNING. CLDS WL LINGER FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER THE
PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING SEWD ACRS
MN/LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IT SHOULD BEING OVERSPREADING THE FCST AREA
ARND DAYBREAK. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A RATHER SOLID-LOOKING SC
DECK WAS THAT WAS SURGING SWWD FM SE ONTARIO. BUT STG SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TDA IN THE WAKE OF NRN SHRTWV THAT WAS
DIGGING SWD AND PHASING WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE RGN. SO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS THE AREA. DESPITE THAT...RATHER STRONG N
WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS 10-15F DEG BLO NORMAL.
SFC HIGH WL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...COOL DRY
AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH UNSEASONABLY
COLD LEVELS. WENT AOB GUID FOR MINS MOST AREAS. WL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND POST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN WE COULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH WIND IN THE
FAR E TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT AND PREVENT FROST. BUT GIVEN HOW
LATE WE ARE INTO THE SPRING...DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND POST ADVSIORY EVEN WHERE FROST ISN/T A CERTAINTY. WL
DETAIL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NPW PRODUCT.
THE WARMING TREND WL START FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE E.
EVEN THOUGH THERE WL BE AN ELY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH...WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND MOST GUID
MAXES SEEMED TOO COOL...ESP OVER E-C WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE RIDGE.
NEW ECMWF DOES PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE. THINKING THERE WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS/WRF
HAVE BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT IF PRECIPITATION WOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA. REALLY LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT AND THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS FOLLOWED THIS TREND.
THINK MUCH OF SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE DRY. DID KEEP A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST JUST IN CASE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLIP INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONLY WENT WITH
SHOWERS AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEADING INTO A DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN
WARM FRONT...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY
COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THE STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
BASED ON SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO LESS CLOUD
COVER AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. FROST IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE TOWARDS IRON MOUNTAIN AREA
WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARDS TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL. MIN
TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER
FORECASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
ONCE LOW CLDS EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
000
FXUS63 KGRB 230433
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1133 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH PESKY
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION SLOWLY WANING
AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UPSTREAM. GOING SHORT-TERM FORECAST STILL
LOOKING ON TRACK. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE DEMISE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH MAINLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY FROM GREEN BAY SOUTH TO
OSHKOSH.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS FINALLY MOVING EAST...WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON PER
MSAS ANALYSIS. THIS SFC LOW...COMBINED WITH ENERGY FROM A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
DETECTED IN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A NOSE
OF MINOR MU-CAPES AND THE BEST FORCING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DECENT 300MB JET
STREAK MOVED OVER THE STATE...WITH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SITTING IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS WERE OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST...THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF GRB AND DVN SHOWED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH HELPED CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THIS AREA INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF OSHKOSH
AND FDL. FURTHER NORTH...SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY BUT NO PRECIP WAS
REPORTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SEEING
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON
THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 21Z-00Z.
GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE CWA...WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS FOR STRONG FORCING 21Z TODAY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN
WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BUMPED UP
QPF A LITTLE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING. CONTINUED
TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY AS
WELL...AT WHICH POINT ANY LINGERING MU-CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM WISCONSIN...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS.
DRY AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOULD QUICKLY USHER OUT PRECIPITATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ENDING IN FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE LAKESHORE AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. SPED
UP THE EXIT OF PRECIP/CLOUDS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING
BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SETS UP AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BLO FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NC/FAR NE WI...
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 DEGREES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FREEZING TEMPS ARE
LIKELY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WHERE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST ARE A GOOD BET. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL WI
CLOSELY...AS FCST MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING.
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST TO OUR EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING ANY PCPN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LGT
QPF INTO OUR SW COUNTIES BY ABOUT SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MILDER
TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A RAPIDLY IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL SWEEP NW-SE ACRS
THE AREA LATE TNGT AND THU MORNING AS THE RAIN-PRODUCING CYCLONE
DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE E AND IS REPLACED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS WILL GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS OFF
THE SFC BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SO WILL KEEP THE STRONG WORDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH JUST A MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT MARINE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
ARE COMING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND WINDS INCREASE AND FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE. WILL REMOVE FOG MENTION FROM THE MWW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ESB
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JS
MARINE.........WOLF
000
FXUS63 KGRB 230204
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
904 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH PESKY
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION SLOWLY WANING
AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UPSTREAM. GOING SHORT-TERM FORECAST STILL
LOOKING ON TRACK. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE DEMISE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH MAINLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY FROM GREEN BAY SOUTH TO
OSHKOSH.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS FINALLY MOVING EAST...WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON PER
MSAS ANALYSIS. THIS SFC LOW...COMBINED WITH ENERGY FROM A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
DETECTED IN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A NOSE
OF MINOR MU-CAPES AND THE BEST FORCING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DECENT 300MB JET
STREAK MOVED OVER THE STATE...WITH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SITTING IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS WERE OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST...THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF GRB AND DVN SHOWED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH HELPED CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THIS AREA INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF OSHKOSH
AND FDL. FURTHER NORTH...SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY BUT NO PRECIP WAS
REPORTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SEEING
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON
THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 21Z-00Z.
GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE CWA...WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS FOR STRONG FORCING 21Z TODAY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN
WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BUMPED UP
QPF A LITTLE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING. CONTINUED
TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY AS
WELL...AT WHICH POINT ANY LINGERING MU-CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM WISCONSIN...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS.
DRY AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOULD QUICKLY USHER OUT PRECIPITATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ENDING IN FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE LAKESHORE AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. SPED
UP THE EXIT OF PRECIP/CLOUDS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING
BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SETS UP AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BLO FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NC/FAR NE WI...
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 DEGREES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FREEZING TEMPS ARE
LIKELY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WHERE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST ARE A GOOD BET. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL WI
CLOSELY...AS FCST MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING.
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST TO OUR EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING ANY PCPN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LGT
QPF INTO OUR SW COUNTIES BY ABOUT SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MILDER
TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
SLOW MOVING AREA OF IFR CIGS AND BROKEN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES THAT SURGE OF DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TO THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WILL WORK TO GRAUDUALLY ERODE
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
RADAR TRENDS LAST COUPLE HOURS SUPPORT THIS AS PRECIPTATION AREA
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
FROM GREEN BAY...WEST TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LATEST HRRR FORECAST
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS AND PUSHES
PRECIPTATION AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 10Z OR
SO. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH VFR CONDTIONS TO FOLLOW AFTER
15Z THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
EXPCETED FROM GRB SOUTHWEST TO ATW AND OSH BY 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS WILL GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS OFF
THE SFC BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SO WILL KEEP THE STRONG WORDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH JUST A MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT MARINE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
ARE COMING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND WINDS INCREASE AND FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE. WILL REMOVE FOG MENTION FROM THE MWW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ESB
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB
MARINE.........WOLF
000
FXUS63 KGRB 230016
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
716 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS FINALLY MOVING EAST...WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON PER
MSAS ANALYSIS. THIS SFC LOW...COMBINED WITH ENERGY FROM A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
DETECTED IN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A NOSE
OF MINOR MU-CAPES AND THE BEST FORCING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DECENT 300MB JET
STREAK MOVED OVER THE STATE...WITH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SITTING IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS WERE OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST...THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF GRB AND DVN SHOWED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH HELPED CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THIS AREA INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF OSHKOSH
AND FDL. FURTHER NORTH...SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY BUT NO PRECIP WAS
REPORTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SEEING
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON
THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 21Z-00Z.
GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE CWA...WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS FOR STRONG FORCING 21Z TODAY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN
WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BUMPED UP
QPF A LITTLE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING. CONTINUED
TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY AS
WELL...AT WHICH POINT ANY LINGERING MU-CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM WISCONSIN...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS.
DRY AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOULD QUICKLY USHER OUT PRECIPITATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ENDING IN FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE LAKESHORE AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. SPED
UP THE EXIT OF PRECIP/CLOUDS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING
BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SETS UP AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BLO FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NC/FAR NE WI...
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 DEGREES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FREEZING TEMPS ARE
LIKELY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WHERE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST ARE A GOOD BET. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL WI
CLOSELY...AS FCST MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING.
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST TO OUR EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING ANY PCPN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LGT
QPF INTO OUR SW COUNTIES BY ABOUT SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MILDER
TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
SLOW MOVING AREA OF IFR CIGS AND BROKEN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES THAT SURGE OF DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TO THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WILL WORK TO GRAUDUALLY ERODE
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
RADAR TRENDS LAST COUPLE HOURS SUPPORT THIS AS PRECIPTATION AREA
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
FROM GREEN BAY...WEST TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LATEST HRRR FORECAST
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS AND PUSHES
PRECIPTATION AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 10Z OR
SO. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH VFR CONDTIONS TO FOLLOW AFTER
15Z THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
EXPCETED FROM GRB SOUTHWEST TO ATW AND OSH BY 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS WILL GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS OFF
THE SFC BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SO WILL KEEP THE STRONG WORDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH JUST A MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT MARINE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
ARE COMING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND WINDS INCREASE AND FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE. WILL REMOVE FOG MENTION FROM THE MWW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB
MARINE.........WOLF
000
FXUS63 KGRB 221940
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS FINALLY MOVING EAST...WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON PER
MSAS ANALYSIS. THIS SFC LOW...COMBINED WITH ENERGY FROM A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
DETECTED IN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A NOSE
OF MINOR MU-CAPES AND THE BEST FORCING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DECENT 300MB JET
STREAK MOVED OVER THE STATE...WITH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SITTING IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS WERE OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST...THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF GRB AND DVN SHOWED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH HELPED CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THIS AREA INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF OSHKOSH
AND FDL. FURTHER NORTH...SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY BUT NO PRECIP WAS
REPORTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SEEING
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON
THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 21Z-00Z.
GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE CWA...WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS FOR STRONG FORCING 21Z TODAY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN
WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BUMPED UP
QPF A LITTLE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING. CONTINUED
TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY AS
WELL...AT WHICH POINT ANY LINGERING MU-CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM WISCONSIN...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS.
DRY AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOULD QUICKLY USHER OUT PRECIPITATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ENDING IN FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE LAKESHORE AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. SPED
UP THE EXIT OF PRECIP/CLOUDS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING
BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SETS UP AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BLO FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NC/FAR NE WI...
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 DEGREES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FREEZING TEMPS ARE
LIKELY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WHERE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST ARE A GOOD BET. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL WI
CLOSELY...AS FCST MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING.
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST TO OUR EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING ANY PCPN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LGT
QPF INTO OUR SW COUNTIES BY ABOUT SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MILDER
TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
GENERAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE STATE...WITH RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
BEFORE EXITING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS WILL GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS OFF
THE SFC BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SO WILL KEEP THE STRONG WORDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH JUST A MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT MARINE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
ARE COMING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND WINDS INCREASE AND FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE. WILL REMOVE FOG MENTION FROM THE MWW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......WOLF
MARINE.........WOLF
000
FXUS63 KGRB 221722
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1222 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPR LOW DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WL KICK THE UPR TROF NOW OVER
THE PLAINS EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED BUT FAIRLY STABLE UPR PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE WRN TROF WL START TO
EXPAND EWD AS STG PAC JET HEADS INTO CA.
TEMPS WL START OUT BLO NORMAL...THEN MODERATE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD...LIKELY TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WK. THE MAIN PCPN EVENT WL OCCUR EARLY AS
PLAINS UPR TROF CROSSES THE RGN. THAT SYSTEM WL BE A GOOD PCPN
PRODUCER...ESP FOR THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
GENERAL FCST FOR THE SHORT-TERM IS FAIRLY SIMPLE. UPR TROF FM THE
NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT EWD ACRS THE AREA AND PHASE WITH SOME ENERGY
DIGGING SE FM CANADA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING CYCLONE
TRACKING ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN/TNGT. THAT SYSTEM WL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO MOST OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN/TNGT.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WORKING IN THE FCST DETAILS.
JUST SOME LINGERING LGT SHRA OVER THE FAR N EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FCST AREA EXPERIENCING A LULL IN THE PCPN. SFC
BOUNDARY WAS OVER NRN WI AT 05Z...BUT HAS SINCE SLIPPED SWD ALONG
THE LAKE AND BAY. FOG...SOME OF IT QUITE DENSE...WAS OVER THE LAKE
AND BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWED THE FOG TO ADVECT
INLAND...WITH VSBYS NOW AS LOW AS 1/4 SM AT TIMES AT THE GRB
AIRPORT. THINKING IS THAT THE REAL DENSE FOG WL BE CONFINED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATER...AND WON/T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WL COVER WITH AN SPS...WHICH IS ALREADY OUT.
STLT IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWED EXPANDING AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS
LIFTG NE ACRS IA/SERN MN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADAR RETURNS
WITH THIS FEATURE YET...BUT IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO THE
COMMA HEAD THAT WL PIVOT ACRS THE AREA LATE TDA/TNGT. RAN POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. UPPED PCPN AMNTS
CONSIDERABLY FM PREV FCST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME THUNDER THIS AFTN/EVE.
CARRIED SOME THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT LIMITED IT TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS WL PROBABLY OCCUR MID-DAY...BEFORE RAIN
BECOMES WIDEPSREAD.
WINDS WL INCR LATE TDA AND THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN WE COULD
HAVE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE STG NE WINDS CAUSE WATER TO
BACK UP THE BAY TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE FOX RIVER. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALLS. ALSO...DIDN/T GET MUCH RAIN IN E-C WI
YDA...SO AT LEAST WE AREN/T STARTING WITH HIGH FLOWS COMING INTO
THE MOUTH OF THE FOX.
PCPN SHIELD SHOULD START TO PUSH TO THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHUT
DOWN PCPN IN FAR N-C WI BY LATE TNGT. KEPT IT GOING OVER FAR E-C
WI EARLY FRI...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T LAST TOO LONG INTO THE MORNING.
STG SUBSIDENCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLDS
FM NW-SE FRI MORNING. DESITE THE EXPECTATION OF NR FULL SUN FRI
AFTN...TEMPS AND STG NLY WINDS WL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY FOR LATE
MAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND THEN TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. A HARD FREEZE SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO MARINETTE LINE. LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
LIKE LAND O LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WITH SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LAND
O LAKES DROPS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
GUIDANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY DUE TO WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP A BIT LITTLE LONGER DURING THE NIGHT...THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH IF WINDS WENT CALM FOR A WHILE THAT THIS REGION
APPROACHED 32 DEGREES. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE THE PRIVILEGE OF
ISSUING THE FREEZE WATCH. DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S AT MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 20
TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS. FROST IS LIKELY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING VERY DRY ON SATURDAY...
THUS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND AS GFS/CANADIAN TRY TO EDGE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AT TIMES ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DRIVES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AND KEEPS US
DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE DIFFERENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS. WOULD HAVE PREFER ED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL EXCEPT OVER OUR VERY FAR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
GENERAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE STATE...WITH RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
BEFORE EXITING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WITH HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LOOMING JUST ON THE
HORIZON...OPTED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IMMEDIATELY AND
JUST WRAP THE CURRENT MARINE FOG EVENT INTO IT. DETAILS AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS WL BE SPELLED OUT IN THE FCST AND MWW
PRODUCT...SO OPTED TO KEEP ACTUAL HEADLINE SIMPLE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......WOLF
MARINE.........SKOWRONSKI
000
FXUS63 KGRB 220935
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
435 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPR LOW DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WL KICK THE UPR TROF NOW OVER
THE PLAINS EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED BUT FAIRLY STABLE UPR PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE WRN TROF WL START TO
EXPAND EWD AS STG PAC JET HEADS INTO CA.
TEMPS WL START OUT BLO NORMAL...THEN MODERATE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD...LIKELY TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WK. THE MAIN PCPN EVENT WL OCCUR EARLY AS
PLAINS UPR TROF CROSSES THE RGN. THAT SYSTEM WL BE A GOOD PCPN
PRODUCER...ESP FOR THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
GENERAL FCST FOR THE SHORT-TERM IS FAIRLY SIMPLE. UPR TROF FM THE
NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT EWD ACRS THE AREA AND PHASE WITH SOME ENERGY
DIGGING SE FM CANADA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING CYCLONE
TRACKING ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN/TNGT. THAT SYSTEM WL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO MOST OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN/TNGT.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WORKING IN THE FCST DETAILS.
JUST SOME LINGERING LGT SHRA OVER THE FAR N EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FCST AREA EXPERIENCING A LULL IN THE PCPN. SFC
BOUNDARY WAS OVER NRN WI AT 05Z...BUT HAS SINCE SLIPPED SWD ALONG
THE LAKE AND BAY. FOG...SOME OF IT QUITE DENSE...WAS OVER THE LAKE
AND BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWED THE FOG TO ADVECT
INLAND...WITH VSBYS NOW AS LOW AS 1/4 SM AT TIMES AT THE GRB
AIRPORT. THINKING IS THAT THE REAL DENSE FOG WL BE CONFINED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATER...AND WON/T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WL COVER WITH AN SPS...WHICH IS ALREADY OUT.
STLT IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWED EXPANDING AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS
LIFTG NE ACRS IA/SERN MN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADAR RETURNS
WITH THIS FEATURE YET...BUT IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO THE
COMMA HEAD THAT WL PIVOT ACRS THE AREA LATE TDA/TNGT. RAN POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. UPPED PCPN AMNTS
CONSIDERABLY FM PREV FCST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME THUNDER THIS AFTN/EVE.
CARRIED SOME THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT LIMITED IT TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS WL PROBABLY OCCUR MID-DAY...BEFORE RAIN
BECOMES WIDEPSREAD.
WINDS WL INCR LATE TDA AND THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN WE COULD
HAVE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE STG NE WINDS CAUSE WATER TO
BACK UP THE BAY TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE FOX RIVER. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALLS. ALSO...DIDN/T GET MUCH RAIN IN E-C WI
YDA...SO AT LEAST WE AREN/T STARTING WITH HIGH FLOWS COMING INTO
THE MOUTH OF THE FOX.
PCPN SHIELD SHOULD START TO PUSH TO THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHUT
DOWN PCPN IN FAR N-C WI BY LATE TNGT. KEPT IT GOING OVER FAR E-C
WI EARLY FRI...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T LAST TOO LONG INTO THE MORNING.
STG SUBSIDENCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLDS
FM NW-SE FRI MORNING. DESITE THE EXPECTATION OF NR FULL SUN FRI
AFTN...TEMPS AND STG NLY WINDS WL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY FOR LATE
MAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND THEN TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. A HARD FREEZE SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO MARINETTE LINE. LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
LIKE LAND O LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WITH SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LAND
O LAKES DROPS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
GUIDANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY DUE TO WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP A BIT LITTLE LONGER DURING THE NIGHT...THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH IF WINDS WENT CALM FOR A WHILE THAT THIS REGION
APPROACHED 32 DEGREES. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE THE PRIVILEGE OF
ISSUING THE FREEZE WATCH. DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S AT MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 20
TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS. FROST IS LIKELY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING VERY DRY ON SATURDAY...
THUS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND AS GFS/CANADIAN TRY TO EDGE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AT TIMES ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DRIVES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AND KEEPS US
DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE DIFFERENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS. WOULD HAVE PREFER ED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL EXCEPT OVER OUR VERY FAR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
LIFR CIGS ACRS THE N THIS MORNING...AND SOME LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY. THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED...OVERALL POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL LINGER ACRS THE N
INTO TNGT. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS...WL
DEVELOP ACRS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL THIS AFTN/EVE. MAY NEED
LLWS DUE TO VERY STG NE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC OVER E-C WI
TNGT...WL MAKE ISSUANCE TIME DECISION ON THAT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WITH HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LOOMING JUST ON THE
HORIZON...OPTED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IMMEDIATELY AND
JUST WRAP THE CURRENT MARINE FOG EVENT INTO IT. DETAILS AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS WL BE SPELLED OUT IN THE FCST AND MWW
PRODUCT...SO OPTED TO KEEP ACTUAL HEADLINE SIMPLE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........SKOWRONSKI
000
FXUS63 KGRB 220348
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SOAKING RAIN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WAS SITTING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE VICINITY OF AN IRON MT TO
EAU CLAIRE LINE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MARINETTE TO MERRILL. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN PEA TO DIME HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY WANES. DECREASED POPS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH...BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THAT AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY MILD.
FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST.
MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVED NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE BACK SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE THIS WEEK FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS SHOWING AMPLE QG FORCING WITH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL HELP TO INITIATE AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...STARTING
AROUND 12Z. EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO EXPAND QUICKLY THROUGH
OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH WEAK CAPE AND VERY LITTLE
SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THE MORNING
GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING THAT WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE AREA...OTHERWISE SEEMS PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
THE WRF ARW/NMM AND ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO
AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH...THUS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY....WITH
LONG SKINNY CAPE AND WEAK WIND PROFILES. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS
AND MOISTURE ABUNDANCE...ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MODELS FORECAST UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW RETURNING AS UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH. A FROST OR FREEZE IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY AS WINDS DIMINISH.
ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE
MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD
PROBABLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND WIND TO KEEP A FROST OR FREEZE
FROM OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE GETS CLOSER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST AND THERE IS A BIG
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS
HEIGHTS RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT.
A SOLID AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS (BASES 5-7K FT) WILL COVER MOST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/FOG
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL STILL DEVELOP WHERE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY
NC/NE WI)...AND NEAR THE LAKE/BAY (MARINE FOG). THE MARINE FOG
WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE SHORELINE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DENSE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z/WEDS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED THE NORTHERN BAY ZONE TO THE ADVISORY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR...
WHICH WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES ON THE LAKE/BAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........KIECKBUSCH
000
FXUS63 KGRB 212352
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
652 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SOAKING RAIN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WAS SITTING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE VICINITY OF AN IRON MT TO
EAU CLAIRE LINE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MARINETTE TO MERRILL. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN PEA TO DIME HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY WANES. DECREASED POPS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH...BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THAT AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY MILD.
FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST.
MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVED NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE BACK SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE THIS WEEK FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS SHOWING AMPLE QG FORCING WITH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL HELP TO INITIATE AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...STARTING
AROUND 12Z. EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO EXPAND QUICKLY THROUGH
OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH WEAK CAPE AND VERY LITTLE
SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THE MORNING
GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING THAT WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE AREA...OTHERWISE SEEMS PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
THE WRF ARW/NMM AND ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO
AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH...THUS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY....WITH
LONG SKINNY CAPE AND WEAK WIND PROFILES. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS
AND MOISTURE ABUNDANCE...ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MODELS FORECAST UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW RETURNING AS UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH. A FROST OR FREEZE IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY AS WINDS DIMINISH.
ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE
MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD
PROBABLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND WIND TO KEEP A FROST OR FREEZE
FROM OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE GETS CLOSER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST AND THERE IS A BIG
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS
HEIGHTS RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER NORTHERN WI
THIS EVG. ALTHOUGH BRIEF CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVG...A FAIRLY
SOLID AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS FROM
DEVELOPING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER EAST
CENTRAL WI LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
SHOWERS. MARINE FOG MAY ALSO COME ONSHORE IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DENSE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z/WEDS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED THE NORTHERN BAY ZONE TO THE ADVISORY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR...
WHICH WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES ON THE LAKE/BAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........KIECKBUSCH
000
FXUS63 KGRB 212013
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
313 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SOAKING RAIN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WAS SITTING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE VICINITY OF AN IRON MT TO
EAU CLAIRE LINE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MARINETTE TO MERRILL. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN PEA TO DIME HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY WANES. DECREASED POPS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH...BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THAT AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY MILD.
FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST.
MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVED NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE BACK SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE THIS WEEK FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS SHOWING AMPLE QG FORCING WITH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL HELP TO INITIATE AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...STARTING
AROUND 12Z. EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO EXPAND QUICKLY THROUGH
OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH WEAK CAPE AND VERY LITTLE
SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THE MORNING
GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING THAT WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE AREA...OTHERWISE SEEMS PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
THE WRF ARW/NMM AND ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO
AFFECT THE EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH...THUS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY....WITH LONG
SKINNY CAPE AND WEAK WIND PROFILES. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND
MOISTURE ABUNDANCE...ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MODELS FORECAST UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW RETURNING AS UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH. A FROST OR FREEZE IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY AS WINDS DIMINISH.
ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE
MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD
PROBABLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND WIND TO KEEP A FROST OR FREEZE
FROM OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE GETS CLOSER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST AND THERE IS A BIG
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS
HEIGHTS RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR EAST OF A MARINETTE TO
SHAWANO TO WAUPACA LINE LINE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST.
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS DENSE FOG ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. IT
WILL PROBABLY STAY JUST EAST OF THE MANITOWOC AND STURGEON BAY
AIRPORTS BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DENSE FOG NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES TOWARDS THE LAKE BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD STAY ALONG THE
SHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE
WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......RDM
MARINE.........RDM
000
FXUS63 KGRB 211807
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
107 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/SOMEWHAT BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACRS THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. UPR TROF WAS
CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
NR THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER UPR LOW WAS DIGGING SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST. THE PLAINS TROF WL PHASE WITH SOME ENERGY DROPPING SWD FM
THE HUDSON BAY AREA AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO ERN NOAM. MEANWHILE
BACK W...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WL EXPAND TO EXTEND FM THE SRN
PLAINS...NWD...INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE THE UPSTREAM
TROF LINGERS OUT NR THE WEST COAST.
TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO NORMAL LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS DAYS...THEN
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WK. PCPN AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE AOA NORMAL...PRIMARILY DUE TO WHAT FALLS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VARIOUS COMMS/EQUIPMENT/CONNECTIVITY ISSUES REALLY THREW SOME
ROADBLOCKS INTO THE THE PROCESS OF TRYING TO PUT TOGETHER THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. BUT HERE GOES...
BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTG NWD ACRS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE N. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...WEST/EAST
BOUNDARY WHICH LIKELY ORIGINATED AS REMNANTS OF OLD OCCULUSION WL
LINGER ACRS THE N. ONCE THE MORNING RAINS SHIFT NWD...FOCUSED POPS
NR THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REST OF TDA INTO TNGT. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER S...ESP IF SIG SUNSHINE
OCCURS ACRS THE S LATER TDA. BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE ACRS THE N. SPC TRIMMED THE SLGT RISK OF SVR STORMS TO
MAINLY E-C WI. WHILE SVR STORMS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF SIG
CLEARING AND DESTABLIZATION CAN OCCUR...SHEAR WL BE WEAKER THAN
YDA. WL MENTION POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO...BUT RISK SEEMS TOO
LIMITED/CONDITIONAL FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION IN GRIDS/ZONES AT THIS
POINT.
SFC BOUNDARY WL BEGIN TO SHIFT SWD TNGT. BUT FORCING WL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SO SHOULD GET SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASING TREND IN THE
CONVECTION AS THE ATM STABILIZES OVERNIGHT.
WHAT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR SIG WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD OCCUR
OVER E-C WI WED AS UPR SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE W. MODELS ALL
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE QG FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. WL START OUT WITH CHC POPS...THEN TAKE THEM TO LIKELY OVER
THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA BY AFTN. SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
S BY THEN...SO IT WL BE COOLER...AND FOCUS ANY SVR THREAT TO OUR
SE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NIGHT TIME LOWS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST/LAKESHORE REGION AND WILL TAPER OFF
RAPIDLY AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TO VILAS COUNTY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...THUS LATER FORECAST
MAY NEED TO ADJUST AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF THE BAND OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. DID LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DROPPING
DEW POINTS. SKIES WILL BECOME SUNNY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE 20S NORTH AND 30S ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. IT WILL FEEL COOL AS NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BAY AND LAKESHORE
ALWAYS TRICKY THIS TIME OF YEAR DEPENDING IF WINDS ARE DUE NORTH
OR HAVE A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. DID LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST AND VILAS COUNTY... AND IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WEST.
THE COOL DRY AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD
FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLDER
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING A HARD FREEZE FOR A FEW HOURS. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SINCE
WE ARE NOW WELL INTO THE TYPICAL GROWING SEASON...WILL HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICAST. DESPITE A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON
FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE POSITION OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE.
THE GFS WAS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND. INKLING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WOULD BE DRY.
HAVE REMOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONFINED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD FOR
BOTH DAYS. IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE SOME MORE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON ONE OR BOTH
DAYS. EVEN IF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION DOES VERIFY... HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FROM TIME TO
TIME. HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT IF SKY COVER WOULD BE
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. BEST CHANCE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODEL
DIFFERENCES YIELD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEMORIAL DAY
FORECAST. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR EAST OF A MARINETTE TO
SHAWANO TO WAUPACA LINE LINE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST.
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS DENSE FOG ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. IT
WILL PROBABLY STAY JUST EAST OF THE MANITOWOC AND STURGEON BAY
AIRPORTS BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ESB
MARINE.........ECKBERG
000
FXUS63 KGRB 210857
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/SOMEWHAT BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACRS THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. UPR TROF WAS
CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
NR THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER UPR LOW WAS DIGGING SWD DOWN THE WEST
COAST. THE PLAINS TROF WL PHASE WITH SOME ENERGY DROPPING SWD FM
THE HUDSON BAY AREA AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO ERN NOAM. MEANWHILE
BACK W...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WL EXPAND TO EXTEND FM THE SRN
PLAINS...NWD...INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE THE UPSTREAM
TROF LINGERS OUT NR THE WEST COAST.
TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO NORMAL LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS DAYS...THEN
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WK. PCPN AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE AOA NORMAL...PRIMARILY DUE TO WHAT FALLS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VARIOUS COMMS/EQUIPMENT/CONNECTIVITY ISSUES REALLY THREW SOME
ROADBLOCKS INTO THE THE PROCESS OF TRYING TO PUT TOGETHER THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. BUT HERE GOES...
BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTG NWD ACRS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE N. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...WEST/EAST
BOUNDARY WHICH LIKELY ORIGINATED AS REMNANTS OF OLD OCCULUSION WL
LINGER ACRS THE N. ONCE THE MORNING RAINS SHIFT NWD...FOCUSED POPS
NR THE BOUNDARY FOR THE REST OF TDA INTO TNGT. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER S...ESP IF SIG SUNSHINE
OCCURS ACRS THE S LATER TDA. BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE ACRS THE N. SPC TRIMMED THE SLGT RISK OF SVR STORMS TO
MAINLY E-C WI. WHILE SVR STORMS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF SIG
CLEARING AND DESTABLIZATION CAN OCCUR...SHEAR WL BE WEAKER THAN
YDA. WL MENTION POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO...BUT RISK SEEMS TOO
LIMITED/CONDITIONAL FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION IN GRIDS/ZONES AT THIS
POINT.
SFC BOUNDARY WL BEGIN TO SHIFT SWD TNGT. BUT FORCING WL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SO SHOULD GET SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASING TREND IN THE
CONVECTION AS THE ATM STABILIZES OVERNIGHT.
WHAT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR SIG WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD OCCUR
OVER E-C WI WED AS UPR SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE W. MODELS ALL
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE QG FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. WL START OUT WITH CHC POPS...THEN TAKE THEM TO LIKELY OVER
THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA BY AFTN. SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
S BY THEN...SO IT WL BE COOLER...AND FOCUS ANY SVR THREAT TO OUR
SE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NIGHT TIME LOWS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST/LAKESHORE REGION AND WILL TAPER OFF
RAPIDLY AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TO VILAS COUNTY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...THUS LATER FORECAST
MAY NEED TO ADJUST AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF THE BAND OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. DID LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DROPPING
DEW POINTS. SKIES WILL BECOME SUNNY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE 20S NORTH AND 30S ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. IT WILL FEEL COOL AS NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BAY AND LAKESHORE
ALWAYS TRICKY THIS TIME OF YEAR DEPENDING IF WINDS ARE DUE NORTH
OR HAVE A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. DID LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST AND VILAS COUNTY... AND IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WEST.
THE COOL DRY AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD
FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLDER
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING A HARD FREEZE FOR A FEW HOURS. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SINCE
WE ARE NOW WELL INTO THE TYPICAL GROWING SEASON...WILL HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICAST. DESPITE A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON
FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE POSITION OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE.
THE GFS WAS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND. INKLING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WOULD BE DRY.
HAVE REMOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONFINED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD FOR
BOTH DAYS. IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE SOME MORE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON ONE OR BOTH
DAYS. EVEN IF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION DOES VERIFY... HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FROM TIME TO
TIME. HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT IF SKY COVER WOULD BE
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. BEST CHANCE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODEL
DIFFERENCES YIELD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEMORIAL DAY
FORECAST. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GENERALLY VFR CIGS ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD
HOLD EARLY TDA...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT LOW CLD DECK TO DEVELOP N OF
SFC BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. THE LOW CLDS SHOULD EXPAND S TNGT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........ECKBERG
| 
