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000
FXUS63 KGRB 302036
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CHANCES FOR AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

GENERAL SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WAS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
AROUND 250J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE/NO CIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BUT NO CAPE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS OF 19Z.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TO 1.5KM LAPSE RATES WERE AT LEAST 10K/KM AND 0
TO 3KM LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7K/KM. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WAS UNIMPRESSIVE.

12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEPT SOME QPF IN THE STATE INTO AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z EC SEEMED TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
TOWARD MORNING. HAVE THEN BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SHORT
WAVE TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT...WILL FOCUS BEST POP TRENDS WITH
THE H500 TEMP PROGS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY THURSDAY EVENING
HOWEVER ALL PROGS IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER H5 TEMPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MODIFYING AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PROGS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHC POPS FOCUSED FOR FRIDAY...AND LIGHTER DIURNAL LOWER
END CHC POPS OR DRY ELSEWHERE.

UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO SOME DEGREE. MODELS ATTEMPTS TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY DROP THIS WAVE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS NEXT WEEK IN THE LESS
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY NEXT
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED PCPN CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. FOG DISSIPATED
AND CU DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT CIGS AND
VSBYS WERE IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT 17Z. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF CLOUDS...THAT APPEARED TO HAVE SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...MOVING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF INL TO NEAR
DLH SINCE MID MORNING. THE 12Z INL SOUNDING WAS QUITE UNSTABLE
ABOVE A SURFACE INVERSION BUT...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED LITTLE. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE GENERAL IDEA OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DYING OFF IN THE EVENING. 12Z NAM/12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF ALL SHOWED AREAS OF QPF IN THE STATE TODAY BUT
CONTINUED IT DURING THE NIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. TOTALS WERE
GENERALLY LOW AND LOCATIONS DID NOT ALWAYS MATCH UP...SO HAVE
OPTED FOR THE SIMPLE PLAN FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 301807
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
107 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NIGHTTIME STABILITY. ANOTHER S/W TROF...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL BRUSH THROUGH FAR NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE ONLY 300-500 J/KG)...EXPECT DAYTIME
CONVECTION TO BE WEAKER...WITH LESS COVERAGE. WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN FAR NE WI.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NE WI. WILL ONLY HAVE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. H8 TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES C WARMER
THAN TODAY...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
AT 500MB WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THIS
PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND AGREE WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.  AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  VERY
LITTLE CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. MAX AND
MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OF THE DAYS THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BEING DRY.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROLONGING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
POSSIBLY TURNING DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. FOG DISSIPATED
AND CU DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT CIGS AND
VSBYS WERE IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT 17Z. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF CLOUDS...THAT APPEARED TO HAVE SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...MOVING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF INL TO NEAR
DLH SINCE MID MORNING. THE 12Z INL SOUNDING WAS QUITE UNSTABLE
ABOVE A SURFACE INVERSION BUT...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED LITTLE. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE GENERAL IDEA OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DYING OFF IN THE EVENING. 12Z NAM/12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF ALL SHOWED AREAS OF QPF IN THE STATE TODAY BUT
CONTINUED IT DURING THE NIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. TOTALS WERE
GENERALLY LOW AND LOCATIONS DID NOT ALWAYS MATCH UP...SO HAVE
OPTED FOR THE SIMPLE PLAN FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 301135
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
635 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NIGHTTIME STABILITY. ANOTHER S/W TROF...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL BRUSH THROUGH FAR NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE ONLY 300-500 J/KG)...EXPECT DAYTIME
CONVECTION TO BE WEAKER...WITH LESS COVERAGE. WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN FAR NE WI.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NE WI. WILL ONLY HAVE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. H8 TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES C WARMER
THAN TODAY...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
AT 500MB WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THIS
PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND AGREE WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.  AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  VERY
LITTLE CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. MAX AND
MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OF THE DAYS THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BEING DRY.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROLONGING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
POSSIBLY TURNING DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVER NC WI AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA SHOULD MIX OUT EARLY IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS NUMEROUS AND WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 300853
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
353 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NIGHTTIME STABILITY. ANOTHER S/W TROF...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL BRUSH THROUGH FAR NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE ONLY 300-500 J/KG)...EXPECT DAYTIME
CONVECTION TO BE WEAKER...WITH LESS COVERAGE. WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN FAR NE WI.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NE WI. WILL ONLY HAVE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. H8 TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES C WARMER
THAN TODAY...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
AT 500MB WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THIS
PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND AGREE WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.  AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  VERY
LITTLE CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. MAX AND
MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OF THE DAYS THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BEING DRY.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROLONGING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
POSSIBLY TURNING DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GIVEN EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES...THE
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS GO LIGHT. AT THIS
TIME HAVE HIT TYPICAL FOGGY SITES HARDER...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WED AFTN AS
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 300853
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
353 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NIGHTTIME STABILITY. ANOTHER S/W TROF...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL BRUSH THROUGH FAR NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE ONLY 300-500 J/KG)...EXPECT DAYTIME
CONVECTION TO BE WEAKER...WITH LESS COVERAGE. WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN FAR NE WI.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NE WI. WILL ONLY HAVE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. H8 TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES C WARMER
THAN TODAY...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
AT 500MB WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THIS
PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND AGREE WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.  AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  VERY
LITTLE CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. MAX AND
MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OF THE DAYS THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BEING DRY.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROLONGING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
POSSIBLY TURNING DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GIVEN EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES...THE
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS GO LIGHT. AT THIS
TIME HAVE HIT TYPICAL FOGGY SITES HARDER...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WED AFTN AS
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 300348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPR PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH UPR TROFS
OVER THE EAST AND OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND STG
RIDGING FM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NNEWD...ACRS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS IS A VERY STABLE PATTERN...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE
TROF AND RIDGE POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. BUT A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL
CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...PCPN AMNTS WL
BE MODEST AND MOST AREAS WL PROBABLY END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
NIGHT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THERE WAS SOME FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAD IT IN GRB AND RHI.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RELATIVELY QUIET MID-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FCST CHALLENGE WILL CONT TO BE WHEN TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FCST. TIMING OF SHRTWVS BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FARTHER INTO
THE FCST...SO RELIED MAINLY ON TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK.

850 MB TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY EDGE UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOLER AIR WL BE REINFORCED FM
THE N AGAIN LATER NEXT WK. NO SIG CHGS TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GIVEN EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES...THE
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS GO LIGHT. AT THIS
TIME HAVE HIT TYPICAL FOGGY SITES HARDER...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WED AFTN AS
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 300348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPR PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH UPR TROFS
OVER THE EAST AND OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND STG
RIDGING FM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NNEWD...ACRS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS IS A VERY STABLE PATTERN...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE
TROF AND RIDGE POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. BUT A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL
CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...PCPN AMNTS WL
BE MODEST AND MOST AREAS WL PROBABLY END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
NIGHT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THERE WAS SOME FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAD IT IN GRB AND RHI.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RELATIVELY QUIET MID-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FCST CHALLENGE WILL CONT TO BE WHEN TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FCST. TIMING OF SHRTWVS BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FARTHER INTO
THE FCST...SO RELIED MAINLY ON TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK.

850 MB TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY EDGE UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOLER AIR WL BE REINFORCED FM
THE N AGAIN LATER NEXT WK. NO SIG CHGS TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GIVEN EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES...THE
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS GO LIGHT. AT THIS
TIME HAVE HIT TYPICAL FOGGY SITES HARDER...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WED AFTN AS
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE









000
FXUS63 KGRB 300009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
709 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPR PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH UPR TROFS
OVER THE EAST AND OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND STG
RIDGING FM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NNEWD...ACRS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS IS A VERY STABLE PATTERN...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE
TROF AND RIDGE POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. BUT A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL
CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...PCPN AMNTS WL
BE MODEST AND MOST AREAS WL PROBABLY END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
NIGHT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THERE WAS SOME FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAD IT IN GRB AND RHI.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RELATIVELY QUIET MID-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FCST CHALLENGE WILL CONT TO BE WHEN TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FCST. TIMING OF SHRTWVS BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FARTHER INTO
THE FCST...SO RELIED MAINLY ON TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK.

850 MB TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY EDGE UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOLER AIR WL BE REINFORCED FM
THE N AGAIN LATER NEXT WK. NO SIG CHGS TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS GO LIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE HIT TYPICAL FOGGY
SITES HARDER...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WED AFTN AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH . &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 300009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
709 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPR PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH UPR TROFS
OVER THE EAST AND OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND STG
RIDGING FM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NNEWD...ACRS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS IS A VERY STABLE PATTERN...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE
TROF AND RIDGE POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. BUT A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL
CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...PCPN AMNTS WL
BE MODEST AND MOST AREAS WL PROBABLY END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
NIGHT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THERE WAS SOME FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAD IT IN GRB AND RHI.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RELATIVELY QUIET MID-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FCST CHALLENGE WILL CONT TO BE WHEN TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FCST. TIMING OF SHRTWVS BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FARTHER INTO
THE FCST...SO RELIED MAINLY ON TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK.

850 MB TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY EDGE UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOLER AIR WL BE REINFORCED FM
THE N AGAIN LATER NEXT WK. NO SIG CHGS TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS GO LIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE HIT TYPICAL FOGGY
SITES HARDER...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WED AFTN AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH . &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 292016
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPR PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH UPR TROFS
OVER THE EAST AND OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND STG
RIDGING FM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NNEWD...ACRS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS IS A VERY STABLE PATTERN...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE
TROF AND RIDGE POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. BUT A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL
CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...PCPN AMNTS WL
BE MODEST AND MOST AREAS WL PROBABLY END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
NIGHT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THERE WAS SOME FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAD IT IN GRB AND RHI.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RELATIVELY QUIET MID-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FCST CHALLENGE WILL CONT TO BE WHEN TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FCST. TIMING OF SHRTWVS BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FARTHER INTO
THE FCST...SO RELIED MAINLY ON TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK.

850 MB TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY EDGE UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOLER AIR WL BE REINFORCED FM
THE N AGAIN LATER NEXT WK. NO SIG CHGS TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE OR NO CIN AT MIDDAY WITH
500-1000J/KG OF CAPE IN MOST LOCATIONS SO DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ANY TIME. THE FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
FROM THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING WERE BOTH BELOW 10KFT...SO HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AND MVFR
OR IFR VSBYS. WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT MAY
BRING AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS...AND ISOLATED IFR VSBYS...IN FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 292016
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPR PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH UPR TROFS
OVER THE EAST AND OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND STG
RIDGING FM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NNEWD...ACRS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS IS A VERY STABLE PATTERN...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE
TROF AND RIDGE POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. BUT A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL
CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...PCPN AMNTS WL
BE MODEST AND MOST AREAS WL PROBABLY END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
NIGHT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THERE WAS SOME FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAD IT IN GRB AND RHI.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RELATIVELY QUIET MID-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FCST CHALLENGE WILL CONT TO BE WHEN TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FCST. TIMING OF SHRTWVS BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FARTHER INTO
THE FCST...SO RELIED MAINLY ON TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK.

850 MB TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY EDGE UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOLER AIR WL BE REINFORCED FM
THE N AGAIN LATER NEXT WK. NO SIG CHGS TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE OR NO CIN AT MIDDAY WITH
500-1000J/KG OF CAPE IN MOST LOCATIONS SO DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ANY TIME. THE FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
FROM THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING WERE BOTH BELOW 10KFT...SO HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AND MVFR
OR IFR VSBYS. WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT MAY
BRING AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS...AND ISOLATED IFR VSBYS...IN FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 291745
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TSTMS WITH HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS EXITING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER WAS APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO.
SHOWERS HAD ENDED ACROSS WI...THOUGH REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWED
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS COVERED THE
REGION...AND PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI.

THE NEXT S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY FROM 18Z-22Z ACCORDING TO EXTRAPOLATION)...
AND SHOULD TRIGGER SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA. WILL CARRY HIGH-END CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS (USING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S) SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LI`S -3 TO -5.
WET BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 9K FT AND COLD AIR ALOFT (H5 TEMPS -16
TO -18) WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS MOST OF GRB CWA
IN A 5% RISK AREA FOR LARGE HAIL...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...SO
WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER S/W TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE CHC POPS DURING THE EVG...
AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING
LATE. WEAK RIDGING OVER NC/FAR NE WI MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S AT THE COOL SPOTS IN THE NORTHWOODS...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ELSEWHERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER IN A STRING OF S/W TROFS SHOULD PASS BY TO
OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET
POSSIBLY IMPACTING FAR NE WI. THE AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY...SO AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MIXING THROUGH 800-750 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC CANADA WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PLAY OUT...THUS DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DID ADJUST MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON A FEW NIGHTS. ONLY REAL
CHANGE WAS TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO OUR TYPICAL WARM SPOTS/SANDY
SOIL REGIONS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST LAKESHORE REGION
DOWN AS WATER TEMPERATURE AT STURGEON BAY THIS EVENING WAS ONLY
50 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE OR NO CIN AT MIDDAY WITH
500-1000J/KG OF CAPE IN MOST LOCATIONS SO DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ANY TIME. THE FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
FROM THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING WERE BOTH BELOW 10KFT...SO HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AND MVFR
OR IFR VSBYS. WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT MAY
BRING AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS...AND ISOLATED IFR VSBYS...IN FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 291117
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TSTMS WITH HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS EXITING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER WAS APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO.
SHOWERS HAD ENDED ACROSS WI...THOUGH REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWED
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS COVERED THE
REGION...AND PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI.

THE NEXT S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY FROM 18Z-22Z ACCORDING TO EXTRAPOLATION)...
AND SHOULD TRIGGER SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA. WILL CARRY HIGH-END CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS (USING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S) SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LI`S -3 TO -5.
WET BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 9K FT AND COLD AIR ALOFT (H5 TEMPS -16
TO -18) WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS MOST OF GRB CWA
IN A 5% RISK AREA FOR LARGE HAIL...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...SO
WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER S/W TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE CHC POPS DURING THE EVG...
AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING
LATE. WEAK RIDGING OVER NC/FAR NE WI MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S AT THE COOL SPOTS IN THE NORTHWOODS...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ELSEWHERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER IN A STRING OF S/W TROFS SHOULD PASS BY TO
OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET
POSSIBLY IMPACTING FAR NE WI. THE AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY...SO AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MIXING THROUGH 800-750 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC CANADA WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PLAY OUT...THUS DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DID ADJUST MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON A FEW NIGHTS. ONLY REAL
CHANGE WAS TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO OUR TYPICAL WARM SPOTS/SANDY
SOIL REGIONS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST LAKESHORE REGION
DOWN AS WATER TEMPERATURE AT STURGEON BAY THIS EVENING WAS ONLY
50 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A COUPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT...
AND MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NC/FAR NE
WI...INCLUDING THE RHI TAF SITE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 291117
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TSTMS WITH HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS EXITING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER WAS APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO.
SHOWERS HAD ENDED ACROSS WI...THOUGH REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWED
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS COVERED THE
REGION...AND PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI.

THE NEXT S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY FROM 18Z-22Z ACCORDING TO EXTRAPOLATION)...
AND SHOULD TRIGGER SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA. WILL CARRY HIGH-END CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS (USING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S) SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LI`S -3 TO -5.
WET BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 9K FT AND COLD AIR ALOFT (H5 TEMPS -16
TO -18) WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS MOST OF GRB CWA
IN A 5% RISK AREA FOR LARGE HAIL...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...SO
WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER S/W TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE CHC POPS DURING THE EVG...
AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING
LATE. WEAK RIDGING OVER NC/FAR NE WI MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S AT THE COOL SPOTS IN THE NORTHWOODS...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ELSEWHERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER IN A STRING OF S/W TROFS SHOULD PASS BY TO
OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET
POSSIBLY IMPACTING FAR NE WI. THE AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY...SO AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MIXING THROUGH 800-750 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC CANADA WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PLAY OUT...THUS DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DID ADJUST MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON A FEW NIGHTS. ONLY REAL
CHANGE WAS TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO OUR TYPICAL WARM SPOTS/SANDY
SOIL REGIONS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST LAKESHORE REGION
DOWN AS WATER TEMPERATURE AT STURGEON BAY THIS EVENING WAS ONLY
50 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A COUPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT...
AND MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NC/FAR NE
WI...INCLUDING THE RHI TAF SITE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 290859
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TSTMS WITH HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS EXITING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER WAS APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO.
SHOWERS HAD ENDED ACROSS WI...THOUGH REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWED
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS COVERED THE
REGION...AND PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI.

THE NEXT S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY FROM 18Z-22Z ACCORDING TO EXTRAPOLATION)...
AND SHOULD TRIGGER SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA. WILL CARRY HIGH-END CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS (USING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S) SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LI`S -3 TO -5.
WET BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 9K FT AND COLD AIR ALOFT (H5 TEMPS -16
TO -18) WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS MOST OF GRB CWA
IN A 5% RISK AREA FOR LARGE HAIL...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...SO
WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG.

ANOTHER S/W TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE CHC POPS DURING THE EVG...
AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING
LATE. WEAK RIDGING OVER NC/FAR NE WI MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S AT THE COOL SPOTS IN THE NORTHWOODS...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ELSEWHERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER IN A STRING OF S/W TROFS SHOULD PASS BY TO
OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET
POSSIBLY IMPACTING FAR NE WI. THE AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY...SO AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MIXING THROUGH 800-750 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC CANADA WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PLAY OUT...THUS DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DID ADJUST MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON A FEW NIGHTS. ONLY REAL
CHANGE WAS TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO OUR TYPICAL WARM SPOTS/SANDY
SOIL REGIONS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST LAKESHORE REGION
DOWN AS WATER TEMPERATURE AT STURGEON BAY THIS EVENING WAS ONLY
50 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES THROUGH TUE AFTN. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL TREND IS DIMINISHING...THOUGH DID ADD FEW
HOURS OF SHOWERS AT WESTERN TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. MAINTAINED VCSH
MENTION FOR LATE TUE MORNING AND AFTN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 290352
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH SEASONABLY
DEEP UPR TROFS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER ERN NOAM...
BRACKETING A STG UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPR
PATTERN IS VERY STABLE...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE TROF AND RIDGE
POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. BUT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS
THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH READINGS MODERATING TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS
THE AREA. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR S...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE
MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A BROKEN CU FIELD POPPED
UP AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.  THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES.  AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT...AND THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND DOOR
COUNTY.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.  BECAUSE OF A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN
RADARS...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY.  WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.  CANNOT FIND MUCH EVIDENCE OF SHORTWAVE FORCING THAT
COULD GENERATE PRECIP. INSTEAD THOUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT
REBOUND MUCH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.  THESE TEMPS SHOULD BE BREACHED AROUND MIDDAY SO
THINKING SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING FROM THE MID DECK
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT.  HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AGAIN THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. THE TWO MAIN
FACTORS MODULATING PCPN CHCS WL BE THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN
STABILITY...AND FORCING FM WK SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD INTO THE ERN
NOAM LNGWV TROF POSN. PCPN CHCS WL BE MAXIMIXED WITH BOTH FACTORS
ARE IN PHASE. AS OF THIS AFTN...THAT SEEMED MOST LIKLEY TO OCCUR
TUE AND AGAIN THU...WITH WED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FEWER SHRA. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THE SML SCALE UPR DISTURBANCES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT...SO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THINGS WON/T LOOK DIFFERENT
TOMORROW.

NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES THROUGH TUE AFTN. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL TREND IS DIMINISHING...THOUGH DID ADD FEW
HOURS OF SHOWERS AT WESTERN TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. MAINTAINED VCSH
MENTION FOR LATE TUE MORNING AND AFTN. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 290352
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH SEASONABLY
DEEP UPR TROFS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER ERN NOAM...
BRACKETING A STG UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPR
PATTERN IS VERY STABLE...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE TROF AND RIDGE
POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. BUT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS
THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH READINGS MODERATING TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS
THE AREA. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR S...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE
MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A BROKEN CU FIELD POPPED
UP AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.  THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES.  AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT...AND THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND DOOR
COUNTY.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.  BECAUSE OF A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN
RADARS...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY.  WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.  CANNOT FIND MUCH EVIDENCE OF SHORTWAVE FORCING THAT
COULD GENERATE PRECIP. INSTEAD THOUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT
REBOUND MUCH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.  THESE TEMPS SHOULD BE BREACHED AROUND MIDDAY SO
THINKING SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING FROM THE MID DECK
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT.  HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AGAIN THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. THE TWO MAIN
FACTORS MODULATING PCPN CHCS WL BE THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN
STABILITY...AND FORCING FM WK SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD INTO THE ERN
NOAM LNGWV TROF POSN. PCPN CHCS WL BE MAXIMIXED WITH BOTH FACTORS
ARE IN PHASE. AS OF THIS AFTN...THAT SEEMED MOST LIKLEY TO OCCUR
TUE AND AGAIN THU...WITH WED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FEWER SHRA. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THE SML SCALE UPR DISTURBANCES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT...SO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THINGS WON/T LOOK DIFFERENT
TOMORROW.

NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES THROUGH TUE AFTN. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL TREND IS DIMINISHING...THOUGH DID ADD FEW
HOURS OF SHOWERS AT WESTERN TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. MAINTAINED VCSH
MENTION FOR LATE TUE MORNING AND AFTN. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE









000
FXUS63 KGRB 282344
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
644 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH SEASONABLY
DEEP UPR TROFS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER ERN NOAM...
BRACKETING A STG UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPR
PATTERN IS VERY STABLE...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE TROF AND RIDGE
POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. BUT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS
THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH READINGS MODERATING TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS
THE AREA. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR S...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE
MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A BROKEN CU FIELD POPPED
UP AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.  THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES.  AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT...AND THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND DOOR
COUNTY.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.  BECAUSE OF A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN
RADARS...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY.  WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.  CANNOT FIND MUCH EVIDENCE OF SHORTWAVE FORCING THAT
COULD GENERATE PRECIP. INSTEAD THOUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT
REBOUND MUCH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.  THESE TEMPS SHOULD BE BREACHED AROUND MIDDAY SO
THINKING SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING FROM THE MID DECK
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT.  HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AGAIN THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. THE TWO MAIN
FACTORS MODULATING PCPN CHCS WL BE THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN
STABILITY...AND FORCING FM WK SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD INTO THE ERN
NOAM LNGWV TROF POSN. PCPN CHCS WL BE MAXIMIXED WITH BOTH FACTORS
ARE IN PHASE. AS OF THIS AFTN...THAT SEEMED MOST LIKLEY TO OCCUR
TUE AND AGAIN THU...WITH WED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FEWER SHRA. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THE SML SCALE UPR DISTURBANCES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT...SO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THINGS WON/T LOOK DIFFERENT
TOMORROW.

NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH TUE AFTN. SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LOOK TO BE
SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH
CURRENT ACTIVITY. HAVE ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR LATE TUE MORNING AND
AFTN.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE









000
FXUS63 KGRB 282344
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
644 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH SEASONABLY
DEEP UPR TROFS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER ERN NOAM...
BRACKETING A STG UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPR
PATTERN IS VERY STABLE...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE TROF AND RIDGE
POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. BUT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS
THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH READINGS MODERATING TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS
THE AREA. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR S...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE
MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A BROKEN CU FIELD POPPED
UP AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.  THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES.  AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT...AND THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND DOOR
COUNTY.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.  BECAUSE OF A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN
RADARS...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY.  WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.  CANNOT FIND MUCH EVIDENCE OF SHORTWAVE FORCING THAT
COULD GENERATE PRECIP. INSTEAD THOUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT
REBOUND MUCH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.  THESE TEMPS SHOULD BE BREACHED AROUND MIDDAY SO
THINKING SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING FROM THE MID DECK
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT.  HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AGAIN THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. THE TWO MAIN
FACTORS MODULATING PCPN CHCS WL BE THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN
STABILITY...AND FORCING FM WK SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD INTO THE ERN
NOAM LNGWV TROF POSN. PCPN CHCS WL BE MAXIMIXED WITH BOTH FACTORS
ARE IN PHASE. AS OF THIS AFTN...THAT SEEMED MOST LIKLEY TO OCCUR
TUE AND AGAIN THU...WITH WED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FEWER SHRA. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THE SML SCALE UPR DISTURBANCES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT...SO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THINGS WON/T LOOK DIFFERENT
TOMORROW.

NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH TUE AFTN. SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LOOK TO BE
SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH
CURRENT ACTIVITY. HAVE ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR LATE TUE MORNING AND
AFTN.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE










000
FXUS63 KGRB 281935
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH SEASONABLY
DEEP UPR TROFS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER ERN NOAM...
BRACKETING A STG UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPR
PATTERN IS VERY STABLE...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE TROF AND RIDGE
POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. BUT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS
THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH READINGS MODERATING TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS
THE AREA. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR S...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE
MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A BROKEN CU FIELD POPPED
UP AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.  THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES.  AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT...AND THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND DOOR
COUNTY.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.  BECAUSE OF A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN
RADARS...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY.  WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.  CANNOT FIND MUCH EVIDENCE OF SHORTWAVE FORCING THAT
COULD GENERATE PRECIP. INSTEAD THOUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT
REBOUND MUCH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.  THESE TEMPS SHOULD BE BREACHED AROUND MIDDAY SO
THINKING SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING FROM THE MID DECK
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT.  HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AGAIN THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. THE TWO MAIN
FACTORS MODULATING PCPN CHCS WL BE THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN
STABILITY...AND FORCING FM WK SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD INTO THE ERN
NOAM LNGWV TROF POSN. PCPN CHCS WL BE MAXIMIXED WITH BOTH FACTORS
ARE IN PHASE. AS OF THIS AFTN...THAT SEEMED MOST LIKLEY TO OCCUR
TUE AND AGAIN THU...WITH WED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FEWER SHRA. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THE SML SCALE UPR DISTURBANCES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT...SO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THINGS WON/T LOOK DIFFERENT
TOMORROW.

NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AT 5000-6000 FEET AGL WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 281935
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH SEASONABLY
DEEP UPR TROFS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER ERN NOAM...
BRACKETING A STG UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPR
PATTERN IS VERY STABLE...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE TROF AND RIDGE
POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. BUT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS
THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH READINGS MODERATING TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS
THE AREA. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR S...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN AMNTS WL BE
MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A BROKEN CU FIELD POPPED
UP AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.  THERE IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES.  AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT...AND THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND DOOR
COUNTY.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.  BECAUSE OF A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN
RADARS...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY.  WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.  CANNOT FIND MUCH EVIDENCE OF SHORTWAVE FORCING THAT
COULD GENERATE PRECIP. INSTEAD THOUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT
REBOUND MUCH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.  THESE TEMPS SHOULD BE BREACHED AROUND MIDDAY SO
THINKING SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING FROM THE MID DECK
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT.  HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AGAIN THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. THE TWO MAIN
FACTORS MODULATING PCPN CHCS WL BE THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN
STABILITY...AND FORCING FM WK SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD INTO THE ERN
NOAM LNGWV TROF POSN. PCPN CHCS WL BE MAXIMIXED WITH BOTH FACTORS
ARE IN PHASE. AS OF THIS AFTN...THAT SEEMED MOST LIKLEY TO OCCUR
TUE AND AGAIN THU...WITH WED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FEWER SHRA. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THE SML SCALE UPR DISTURBANCES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT...SO THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THINGS WON/T LOOK DIFFERENT
TOMORROW.

NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AT 5000-6000 FEET AGL WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 281708
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1208 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST US INCLUDING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCKED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
BE WITH ANY PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING OVER THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT 08Z...SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A PIECE OF ENERGY ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD. PROGS SUGGEST THE
COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
WITH A MODERATING TREND. BUT COOLING H500 TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TOTAL TOTALS TO
THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY ALONG WITH PRODUCING STEEPER 850-500 LAPSE
RATES. PWATS CLIMB TO A MODEST 1.00 INCH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND
THEN THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SREF AND NAM PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY PCPN TODAY WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY. WILL ADD A
SMALL CHC MENTION AS WELL INCREASE CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS
PER SAT TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL END THE PCPN LATER
EVENING FOR A DIURNAL TREND. PCPN MAY DEVELOP A BIT FASTER
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT SAG
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LOW SWIRLING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN TO THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR SUNDAY...THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. SEVERE
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AT 5000-6000 FEET AGL WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 281708
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1208 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST US INCLUDING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCKED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
BE WITH ANY PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING OVER THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT 08Z...SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A PIECE OF ENERGY ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD. PROGS SUGGEST THE
COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
WITH A MODERATING TREND. BUT COOLING H500 TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TOTAL TOTALS TO
THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY ALONG WITH PRODUCING STEEPER 850-500 LAPSE
RATES. PWATS CLIMB TO A MODEST 1.00 INCH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND
THEN THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SREF AND NAM PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY PCPN TODAY WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY. WILL ADD A
SMALL CHC MENTION AS WELL INCREASE CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS
PER SAT TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL END THE PCPN LATER
EVENING FOR A DIURNAL TREND. PCPN MAY DEVELOP A BIT FASTER
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT SAG
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LOW SWIRLING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN TO THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR SUNDAY...THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. SEVERE
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AT 5000-6000 FEET AGL WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 281113
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
613 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST US INCLUDING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCKED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
BE WITH ANY PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING OVER THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT 08Z...SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A PIECE OF ENERGY ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD. PROGS SUGGEST THE
COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
WITH A MODERATING TREND. BUT COOLING H500 TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TOTAL TOTALS TO
THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY ALONG WITH PRODUCING STEEPER 850-500 LAPSE
RATES. PWATS CLIMB TO A MODEST 1.00 INCH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND
THEN THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SREF AND NAM PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY PCPN TODAY WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY. WILL ADD A
SMALL CHC MENTION AS WELL INCREASE CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS
PER SAT TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL END THE PCPN LATER
EVENING FOR A DIURNAL TREND. PCPN MAY DEVELOP A BIT FASTER
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT SAG
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LOW SWIRLING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN TO THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR SUNDAY...THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. SEVERE
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AT 5000-6000 FEET AGL WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 280849
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST US INCLUDING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCKED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
BE WITH ANY PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING OVER THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT 08Z...SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A PIECE OF ENERGY ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD. PROGS SUGGEST THE
COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
WITH A MODERATING TREND. BUT COOLING H500 TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TOTAL TOTALS TO
THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY ALONG WITH PRODUCING STEEPER 850-500 LAPSE
RATES. PWATS CLIMB TO A MODEST 1.00 INCH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND
THEN THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SREF AND NAM PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY PCPN TODAY WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY. WILL ADD A
SMALL CHC MENTION AS WELL INCREASE CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS
PER SAT TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL END THE PCPN LATER
EVENING FOR A DIURNAL TREND. PCPN MAY DEVELOP A BIT FASTER
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT SAG
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LOW SWIRLING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN TO THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR SUNDAY...THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. SEVERE
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW
WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 280849
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST US INCLUDING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCKED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
BE WITH ANY PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING OVER THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT 08Z...SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A PIECE OF ENERGY ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD. PROGS SUGGEST THE
COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
WITH A MODERATING TREND. BUT COOLING H500 TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TOTAL TOTALS TO
THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY ALONG WITH PRODUCING STEEPER 850-500 LAPSE
RATES. PWATS CLIMB TO A MODEST 1.00 INCH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND
THEN THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SREF AND NAM PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY PCPN TODAY WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY. WILL ADD A
SMALL CHC MENTION AS WELL INCREASE CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS
PER SAT TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL END THE PCPN LATER
EVENING FOR A DIURNAL TREND. PCPN MAY DEVELOP A BIT FASTER
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT SAG
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LOW SWIRLING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN TO THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR SUNDAY...THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. SEVERE
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW
WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 280453
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1153 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.  JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING.  BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME.  AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE.  THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING.  BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY.  SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW
WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 280453
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1153 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.  JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING.  BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME.  AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE.  THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING.  BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY.  SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW
WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE









000
FXUS63 KGRB 272357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.  JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING.  BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME.  AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE.  THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING.  BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY.  SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF WI...THOUGH
THUNDER HAS ENDED AS MORE STABLE AIR MASS WORKING IN. CLEARING
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH...THOUGH CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE U P. CIGS WITH THESE CLOUDS
VFR. WILL MONITOR TAFS TO ADD IF THEY STAY TOGETHER AS MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WI. NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
EVENING. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW WITH VFR DIURNAL
CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 272357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.  JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING.  BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME.  AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE.  THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING.  BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY.  SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF WI...THOUGH
THUNDER HAS ENDED AS MORE STABLE AIR MASS WORKING IN. CLEARING
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH...THOUGH CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE U P. CIGS WITH THESE CLOUDS
VFR. WILL MONITOR TAFS TO ADD IF THEY STAY TOGETHER AS MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WI. NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
EVENING. SHOULD SEE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW WITH VFR DIURNAL
CU BUILDING BY LATE MORNING. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE









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