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000
FXUS63 KGRB 081124
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
524 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SLOW MOTION CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD AND
SATURATING AIR MASS SPREADS EAST. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALSO EXPANDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR CONTINUES LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WITH ONE PIECE DROPPING INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

EVEN THOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH STEEP
SURFACE LAPSE RATES WILL COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. SO WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AND CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS WITH THE EMPHASIS THE NW PORTION.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING OR EARLY DAY HIGHS OTHERWISE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF THE WRN NOAM UPR RDG/ERN NOAM
UPR TROF TO PERSIST THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO A NEW UPR TROF TO HIT THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WIL USHER IN AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. PCPN AMOUNTS WL BE BELOW NORMAL
AS GULF MOISTURE IS NON-EXISTENT AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY
SIGINIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OVER NRN WI CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
TUE NGT...ESPECIALLY FOR VILAS CNTY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...TRAJS ARE IDEAL (N-NW)...DELTA-T
VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S AND SFC TROF LINGERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ONE BIG NEGATIVE WL BE THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THAT WOULD
LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
VILAS CNTY WL SEE SNOW SHWRS AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE REST OF NE WI
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT SNOW SHWRS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO CNTRL WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ERN WI. ADD
IN A GUSTY NW WIND AND WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVY CRITERIA
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

THE LAKE EFFECT IS FCST TO PERSIST THRU WED...BUT BE IN A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING MODE AS AN AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO WRN WI AND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUMULATION...AGAIN LIMITED
BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON WED AS CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
SFC HI APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER N-CNTRL/PARTS OF CNTRL WI...WHILE ERN WI
ONLY REACHES THE 10 TO 15 DEG RANGE.

THE SFC HI IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM LK WINNIPEG SE THRU WRN WI
TO THE TN VALLEY WED NGT...BRINGING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TO NE WI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE VILAS CNTY
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS/PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHWRS TO EXIST. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL BE KEY AS TO HOW COLD WE CAN GET CONSIDERING
THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME FRESH SNOW COVER. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE NEAR LK MI...TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
THE COLDER SPOTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI. THIS BROAD AREA OF HI PRES
TO EAST SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ON THU AND BACK THE WINDS TO A W-NW
DIRECTION...THEREBY FINALLY ALLOWING N-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE SUN.
EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF THE SUN FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...
ALTHO TEMPS TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PUT
MAX TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE CNTRL WI...GENERALLY
MIDDLE TEENS ERN WI.

THE BENIGN AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FCST TO HOLD SWAY THRU SAT
AS THE HI PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE NE WI. THERE WL BE A WEAK SYSTEM
(MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING) THAT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON FRI...BUT COULD VEER THE WINDS NW
AGAIN AND LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS/SMALL CHC FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPS
TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HI PRES FINALLY DOES SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT NGT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE S-SE DIRECTION WITH WARMER AIR TO TRY
AND PUSH BACK INTO WI. THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HI
CLOUDS LATER SAT NGT AS THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE NEXT
REAL CHC OF SEEING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE SUNDAY AT THE
EARLIEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST. TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE VARIES A BIT AMONG THE MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME
TO SORT OUT THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 081124
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
524 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SLOW MOTION CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD AND
SATURATING AIR MASS SPREADS EAST. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALSO EXPANDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR CONTINUES LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WITH ONE PIECE DROPPING INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

EVEN THOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH STEEP
SURFACE LAPSE RATES WILL COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. SO WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AND CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS WITH THE EMPHASIS THE NW PORTION.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING OR EARLY DAY HIGHS OTHERWISE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF THE WRN NOAM UPR RDG/ERN NOAM
UPR TROF TO PERSIST THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO A NEW UPR TROF TO HIT THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WIL USHER IN AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. PCPN AMOUNTS WL BE BELOW NORMAL
AS GULF MOISTURE IS NON-EXISTENT AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY
SIGINIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OVER NRN WI CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
TUE NGT...ESPECIALLY FOR VILAS CNTY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...TRAJS ARE IDEAL (N-NW)...DELTA-T
VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S AND SFC TROF LINGERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ONE BIG NEGATIVE WL BE THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THAT WOULD
LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
VILAS CNTY WL SEE SNOW SHWRS AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE REST OF NE WI
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT SNOW SHWRS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO CNTRL WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ERN WI. ADD
IN A GUSTY NW WIND AND WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVY CRITERIA
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

THE LAKE EFFECT IS FCST TO PERSIST THRU WED...BUT BE IN A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING MODE AS AN AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO WRN WI AND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUMULATION...AGAIN LIMITED
BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON WED AS CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
SFC HI APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER N-CNTRL/PARTS OF CNTRL WI...WHILE ERN WI
ONLY REACHES THE 10 TO 15 DEG RANGE.

THE SFC HI IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM LK WINNIPEG SE THRU WRN WI
TO THE TN VALLEY WED NGT...BRINGING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TO NE WI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE VILAS CNTY
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS/PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHWRS TO EXIST. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL BE KEY AS TO HOW COLD WE CAN GET CONSIDERING
THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME FRESH SNOW COVER. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE NEAR LK MI...TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
THE COLDER SPOTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI. THIS BROAD AREA OF HI PRES
TO EAST SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ON THU AND BACK THE WINDS TO A W-NW
DIRECTION...THEREBY FINALLY ALLOWING N-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE SUN.
EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF THE SUN FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...
ALTHO TEMPS TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PUT
MAX TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE CNTRL WI...GENERALLY
MIDDLE TEENS ERN WI.

THE BENIGN AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FCST TO HOLD SWAY THRU SAT
AS THE HI PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE NE WI. THERE WL BE A WEAK SYSTEM
(MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING) THAT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON FRI...BUT COULD VEER THE WINDS NW
AGAIN AND LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS/SMALL CHC FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPS
TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HI PRES FINALLY DOES SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT NGT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE S-SE DIRECTION WITH WARMER AIR TO TRY
AND PUSH BACK INTO WI. THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HI
CLOUDS LATER SAT NGT AS THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE NEXT
REAL CHC OF SEEING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE SUNDAY AT THE
EARLIEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST. TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE VARIES A BIT AMONG THE MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME
TO SORT OUT THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 081124
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
524 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SLOW MOTION CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD AND
SATURATING AIR MASS SPREADS EAST. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALSO EXPANDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR CONTINUES LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WITH ONE PIECE DROPPING INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

EVEN THOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH STEEP
SURFACE LAPSE RATES WILL COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. SO WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AND CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS WITH THE EMPHASIS THE NW PORTION.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING OR EARLY DAY HIGHS OTHERWISE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF THE WRN NOAM UPR RDG/ERN NOAM
UPR TROF TO PERSIST THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO A NEW UPR TROF TO HIT THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WIL USHER IN AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. PCPN AMOUNTS WL BE BELOW NORMAL
AS GULF MOISTURE IS NON-EXISTENT AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY
SIGINIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OVER NRN WI CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
TUE NGT...ESPECIALLY FOR VILAS CNTY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...TRAJS ARE IDEAL (N-NW)...DELTA-T
VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S AND SFC TROF LINGERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ONE BIG NEGATIVE WL BE THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THAT WOULD
LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
VILAS CNTY WL SEE SNOW SHWRS AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE REST OF NE WI
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT SNOW SHWRS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO CNTRL WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ERN WI. ADD
IN A GUSTY NW WIND AND WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVY CRITERIA
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

THE LAKE EFFECT IS FCST TO PERSIST THRU WED...BUT BE IN A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING MODE AS AN AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO WRN WI AND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUMULATION...AGAIN LIMITED
BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON WED AS CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
SFC HI APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER N-CNTRL/PARTS OF CNTRL WI...WHILE ERN WI
ONLY REACHES THE 10 TO 15 DEG RANGE.

THE SFC HI IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM LK WINNIPEG SE THRU WRN WI
TO THE TN VALLEY WED NGT...BRINGING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TO NE WI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE VILAS CNTY
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS/PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHWRS TO EXIST. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL BE KEY AS TO HOW COLD WE CAN GET CONSIDERING
THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME FRESH SNOW COVER. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE NEAR LK MI...TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
THE COLDER SPOTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI. THIS BROAD AREA OF HI PRES
TO EAST SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ON THU AND BACK THE WINDS TO A W-NW
DIRECTION...THEREBY FINALLY ALLOWING N-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE SUN.
EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF THE SUN FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...
ALTHO TEMPS TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PUT
MAX TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE CNTRL WI...GENERALLY
MIDDLE TEENS ERN WI.

THE BENIGN AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FCST TO HOLD SWAY THRU SAT
AS THE HI PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE NE WI. THERE WL BE A WEAK SYSTEM
(MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING) THAT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON FRI...BUT COULD VEER THE WINDS NW
AGAIN AND LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS/SMALL CHC FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPS
TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HI PRES FINALLY DOES SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT NGT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE S-SE DIRECTION WITH WARMER AIR TO TRY
AND PUSH BACK INTO WI. THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HI
CLOUDS LATER SAT NGT AS THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE NEXT
REAL CHC OF SEEING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE SUNDAY AT THE
EARLIEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST. TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE VARIES A BIT AMONG THE MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME
TO SORT OUT THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 080932
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SLOW MOTION CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD AND
SATURATING AIR MASS SPREADS EAST. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALSO EXPANDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR CONTINUES LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WITH ONE PIECE DROPPING INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

EVEN THOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH STEEP
SURFACE LAPSE RATES WILL COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. SO WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AND CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS WITH THE EMPHASIS THE NW PORTION.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING OR EARLY DAY HIGHS OTHERWISE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF THE WRN NOAM UPR RDG/ERN NOAM
UPR TROF TO PERSIST THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO A NEW UPR TROF TO HIT THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WIL USHER IN AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. PCPN AMOUNTS WL BE BELOW NORMAL
AS GULF MOISTURE IS NON-EXISTENT AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY
SIGINIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OVER NRN WI CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
TUE NGT...ESPECIALLY FOR VILAS CNTY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...TRAJS ARE IDEAL (N-NW)...DELTA-T
VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S AND SFC TROF LINGERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ONE BIG NEGATIVE WL BE THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THAT WOULD
LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
VILAS CNTY WL SEE SNOW SHWRS AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE REST OF NE WI
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT SNOW SHWRS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO CNTRL WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ERN WI. ADD
IN A GUSTY NW WIND AND WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVY CRITERIA
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

THE LAKE EFFECT IS FCST TO PERSIST THRU WED...BUT BE IN A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING MODE AS AN AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO WRN WI AND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUMULATION...AGAIN LIMITED
BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON WED AS CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
SFC HI APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER N-CNTRL/PARTS OF CNTRL WI...WHILE ERN WI
ONLY REACHES THE 10 TO 15 DEG RANGE.

THE SFC HI IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM LK WINNIPEG SE THRU WRN WI
TO THE TN VALLEY WED NGT...BRINGING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TO NE WI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE VILAS CNTY
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS/PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHWRS TO EXIST. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL BE KEY AS TO HOW COLD WE CAN GET CONSIDERING
THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME FRESH SNOW COVER. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE NEAR LK MI...TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
THE COLDER SPOTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI. THIS BROAD AREA OF HI PRES
TO EAST SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ON THU AND BACK THE WINDS TO A W-NW
DIRECTION...THEREBY FINALLY ALLOWING N-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE SUN.
EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF THE SUN FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...
ALTHO TEMPS TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PUT
MAX TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE CNTRL WI...GENERALLY
MIDDLE TEENS ERN WI.

THE BENIGN AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FCST TO HOLD SWAY THRU SAT
AS THE HI PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE NE WI. THERE WL BE A WEAK SYSTEM
(MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING) THAT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON FRI...BUT COULD VEER THE WINDS NW
AGAIN AND LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS/SMALL CHC FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPS
TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HI PRES FINALLY DOES SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT NGT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE S-SE DIRECTION WITH WARMER AIR TO TRY
AND PUSH BACK INTO WI. THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HI
CLOUDS LATER SAT NGT AS THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE NEXT
REAL CHC OF SEEING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE SUNDAY AT THE
EARLIEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST. TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE VARIES A BIT AMONG THE MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME
TO SORT OUT THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
LOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN. HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH. VEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 080932
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SLOW MOTION CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD AND
SATURATING AIR MASS SPREADS EAST. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALSO EXPANDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR CONTINUES LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WITH ONE PIECE DROPPING INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

EVEN THOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH STEEP
SURFACE LAPSE RATES WILL COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. SO WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AND CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS WITH THE EMPHASIS THE NW PORTION.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING OR EARLY DAY HIGHS OTHERWISE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF THE WRN NOAM UPR RDG/ERN NOAM
UPR TROF TO PERSIST THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO A NEW UPR TROF TO HIT THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WIL USHER IN AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. PCPN AMOUNTS WL BE BELOW NORMAL
AS GULF MOISTURE IS NON-EXISTENT AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY
SIGINIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OVER NRN WI CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
TUE NGT...ESPECIALLY FOR VILAS CNTY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...TRAJS ARE IDEAL (N-NW)...DELTA-T
VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S AND SFC TROF LINGERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ONE BIG NEGATIVE WL BE THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THAT WOULD
LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
VILAS CNTY WL SEE SNOW SHWRS AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE REST OF NE WI
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT SNOW SHWRS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO CNTRL WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ERN WI. ADD
IN A GUSTY NW WIND AND WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVY CRITERIA
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

THE LAKE EFFECT IS FCST TO PERSIST THRU WED...BUT BE IN A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING MODE AS AN AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO WRN WI AND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUMULATION...AGAIN LIMITED
BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON WED AS CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
SFC HI APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER N-CNTRL/PARTS OF CNTRL WI...WHILE ERN WI
ONLY REACHES THE 10 TO 15 DEG RANGE.

THE SFC HI IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM LK WINNIPEG SE THRU WRN WI
TO THE TN VALLEY WED NGT...BRINGING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TO NE WI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE VILAS CNTY
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS/PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHWRS TO EXIST. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL BE KEY AS TO HOW COLD WE CAN GET CONSIDERING
THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME FRESH SNOW COVER. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE NEAR LK MI...TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
THE COLDER SPOTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI. THIS BROAD AREA OF HI PRES
TO EAST SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ON THU AND BACK THE WINDS TO A W-NW
DIRECTION...THEREBY FINALLY ALLOWING N-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE SUN.
EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF THE SUN FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...
ALTHO TEMPS TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PUT
MAX TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE CNTRL WI...GENERALLY
MIDDLE TEENS ERN WI.

THE BENIGN AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FCST TO HOLD SWAY THRU SAT
AS THE HI PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE NE WI. THERE WL BE A WEAK SYSTEM
(MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING) THAT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON FRI...BUT COULD VEER THE WINDS NW
AGAIN AND LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS/SMALL CHC FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPS
TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HI PRES FINALLY DOES SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT NGT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE S-SE DIRECTION WITH WARMER AIR TO TRY
AND PUSH BACK INTO WI. THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HI
CLOUDS LATER SAT NGT AS THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE NEXT
REAL CHC OF SEEING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE SUNDAY AT THE
EARLIEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST. TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE VARIES A BIT AMONG THE MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME
TO SORT OUT THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
LOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN. HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH. VEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 080932
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SLOW MOTION CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD AND
SATURATING AIR MASS SPREADS EAST. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALSO EXPANDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR CONTINUES LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WITH ONE PIECE DROPPING INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

EVEN THOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH STEEP
SURFACE LAPSE RATES WILL COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. SO WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AND CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS WITH THE EMPHASIS THE NW PORTION.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING OR EARLY DAY HIGHS OTHERWISE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF THE WRN NOAM UPR RDG/ERN NOAM
UPR TROF TO PERSIST THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO A NEW UPR TROF TO HIT THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WIL USHER IN AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. PCPN AMOUNTS WL BE BELOW NORMAL
AS GULF MOISTURE IS NON-EXISTENT AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY
SIGINIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OVER NRN WI CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
TUE NGT...ESPECIALLY FOR VILAS CNTY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...TRAJS ARE IDEAL (N-NW)...DELTA-T
VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S AND SFC TROF LINGERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ONE BIG NEGATIVE WL BE THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THAT WOULD
LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
VILAS CNTY WL SEE SNOW SHWRS AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE REST OF NE WI
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT SNOW SHWRS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO CNTRL WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ERN WI. ADD
IN A GUSTY NW WIND AND WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVY CRITERIA
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

THE LAKE EFFECT IS FCST TO PERSIST THRU WED...BUT BE IN A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING MODE AS AN AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO WRN WI AND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUMULATION...AGAIN LIMITED
BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON WED AS CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
SFC HI APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER N-CNTRL/PARTS OF CNTRL WI...WHILE ERN WI
ONLY REACHES THE 10 TO 15 DEG RANGE.

THE SFC HI IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM LK WINNIPEG SE THRU WRN WI
TO THE TN VALLEY WED NGT...BRINGING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TO NE WI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE VILAS CNTY
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS/PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHWRS TO EXIST. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL BE KEY AS TO HOW COLD WE CAN GET CONSIDERING
THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME FRESH SNOW COVER. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE NEAR LK MI...TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
THE COLDER SPOTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI. THIS BROAD AREA OF HI PRES
TO EAST SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ON THU AND BACK THE WINDS TO A W-NW
DIRECTION...THEREBY FINALLY ALLOWING N-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE SUN.
EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF THE SUN FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...
ALTHO TEMPS TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PUT
MAX TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE CNTRL WI...GENERALLY
MIDDLE TEENS ERN WI.

THE BENIGN AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FCST TO HOLD SWAY THRU SAT
AS THE HI PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE NE WI. THERE WL BE A WEAK SYSTEM
(MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING) THAT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON FRI...BUT COULD VEER THE WINDS NW
AGAIN AND LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS/SMALL CHC FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPS
TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HI PRES FINALLY DOES SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT NGT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE S-SE DIRECTION WITH WARMER AIR TO TRY
AND PUSH BACK INTO WI. THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HI
CLOUDS LATER SAT NGT AS THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE NEXT
REAL CHC OF SEEING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE SUNDAY AT THE
EARLIEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST. TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE VARIES A BIT AMONG THE MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME
TO SORT OUT THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
LOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN. HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH. VEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 080505
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1105 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

REGION RADAR MOSAICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL CYCLONE AROUND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE 500MB LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH MOST/ALL OF WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AS A WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
SURFACE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES PASS...AND ONCE
THEY DO SO THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEMS.

STILL EXPECT A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR VILAS
COUNTY BUT SNOW TOTALS APPEAR BORDERLINE AND AM NOT SURE WINDS
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH BLOWING SNOW. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REMAINING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. OCCASIONAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES STILL
UNCERTAIN. WITH EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
REGION...ANY PRECIPTATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BE SITUATED
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH ELONGATED AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND MEANDER
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
STILL EXPECTING MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN MONDAY EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ONGOING OVER
VILAS COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE LES BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MORE ROBUST SUBSIDENCE WORK INTO THAT REGION. FORECAST TRAJECTORIES
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
LES ACTIVITY OVER VILAS COUNTY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BY THEN. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY BEYOND MONDAY EVENING. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POSSIBILITY.

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPER
TROUGH HOLDING FIRM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD TEND
TO SHUN ANY FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

TAKING A PEAK AT LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IT APPEARS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN MAY START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME DAILY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS AFTER
TUESDAY. COLDEST MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE NEARBY...LIGHTER WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
LOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN. HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH. VEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 072334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

REGION RADAR MOSAICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL CYCLONE AROUND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE 500MB LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH MOST/ALL OF WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AS A WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
SURFACE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES PASS...AND ONCE
THEY DO SO THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEMS.

STILL EXPECT A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR VILAS
COUNTY BUT SNOW TOTALS APPEAR BORDERLINE AND AM NOT SURE WINDS
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH BLOWING SNOW. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REMAINING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. OCCASIONAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES STILL
UNCERTAIN. WITH EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
REGION...ANY PRECIPTATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BE SITUATED
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH ELONGATED AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND MEANDER
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
STILL EXPECTING MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN MONDAY EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ONGOING OVER
VILAS COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE LES BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MORE ROBUST SUBSIDENCE WORK INTO THAT REGION. FORECAST TRAJECTORIES
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
LES ACTIVITY OVER VILAS COUNTY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BY THEN. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY BEYOND MONDAY EVENING. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POSSIBILITY.

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPER
TROUGH HOLDING FIRM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD TEND
TO SHUN ANY FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

TAKING A PEAK AT LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IT APPEARS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN MAY START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME DAILY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS AFTER
TUESDAY. COLDEST MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE NEARBY...LIGHTER WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CIGS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME IFR
CIGS. AN APPROACHING 500MB LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
TO SPREAD SNOW AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. VEERING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 072334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

REGION RADAR MOSAICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL CYCLONE AROUND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE 500MB LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH MOST/ALL OF WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AS A WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
SURFACE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES PASS...AND ONCE
THEY DO SO THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEMS.

STILL EXPECT A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR VILAS
COUNTY BUT SNOW TOTALS APPEAR BORDERLINE AND AM NOT SURE WINDS
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH BLOWING SNOW. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REMAINING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. OCCASIONAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES STILL
UNCERTAIN. WITH EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
REGION...ANY PRECIPTATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BE SITUATED
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH ELONGATED AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND MEANDER
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
STILL EXPECTING MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN MONDAY EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ONGOING OVER
VILAS COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE LES BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MORE ROBUST SUBSIDENCE WORK INTO THAT REGION. FORECAST TRAJECTORIES
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
LES ACTIVITY OVER VILAS COUNTY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BY THEN. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY BEYOND MONDAY EVENING. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POSSIBILITY.

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPER
TROUGH HOLDING FIRM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD TEND
TO SHUN ANY FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

TAKING A PEAK AT LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IT APPEARS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN MAY START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME DAILY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS AFTER
TUESDAY. COLDEST MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE NEARBY...LIGHTER WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CIGS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME IFR
CIGS. AN APPROACHING 500MB LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
TO SPREAD SNOW AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. VEERING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 072334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

REGION RADAR MOSAICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL CYCLONE AROUND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE 500MB LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH MOST/ALL OF WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AS A WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
SURFACE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES PASS...AND ONCE
THEY DO SO THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEMS.

STILL EXPECT A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR VILAS
COUNTY BUT SNOW TOTALS APPEAR BORDERLINE AND AM NOT SURE WINDS
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH BLOWING SNOW. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REMAINING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. OCCASIONAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES STILL
UNCERTAIN. WITH EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
REGION...ANY PRECIPTATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BE SITUATED
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH ELONGATED AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND MEANDER
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
STILL EXPECTING MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN MONDAY EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ONGOING OVER
VILAS COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE LES BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MORE ROBUST SUBSIDENCE WORK INTO THAT REGION. FORECAST TRAJECTORIES
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
LES ACTIVITY OVER VILAS COUNTY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BY THEN. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY BEYOND MONDAY EVENING. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POSSIBILITY.

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPER
TROUGH HOLDING FIRM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD TEND
TO SHUN ANY FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

TAKING A PEAK AT LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IT APPEARS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN MAY START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME DAILY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS AFTER
TUESDAY. COLDEST MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE NEARBY...LIGHTER WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CIGS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME IFR
CIGS. AN APPROACHING 500MB LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
TO SPREAD SNOW AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. VEERING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 072131
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

REGION RADAR MOSAICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL CYCLONE AROUND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE 500MB LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH MOST/ALL OF WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AS A WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
SURFACE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES PASS...AND ONCE
THEY DO SO THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEMS.

STILL EXPECT A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR VILAS
COUNTY BUT SNOW TOTALS APPEAR BORDERLINE AND AM NOT SURE WINDS
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH BLOWING SNOW. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REMAINING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. OCCASIONAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES STILL
UNCERTAIN. WITH EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
REGION...ANY PRECIPTATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BE SITUATED
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH ELONGATED AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND MEANDER
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
STILL EXPECTING MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN MONDAY EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ONGOING OVER
VILAS COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE LES BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MORE ROBUST SUBSIDENCE WORK INTO THAT REGION. FORECAST TRAJECTORIES
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
LES ACTIVITY OVER VILAS COUNTY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BY THEN. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY BEYOND MONDAY EVENING. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POSSIBILITY.

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPER
TROUGH HOLDING FIRM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD TEND
TO SHUN ANY FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

TAKING A PEAK AT LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IT APPEARS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN MAY START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME DAILY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS AFTER
TUESDAY. COLDEST MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE NEARBY...LIGHTER WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CIGS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
THERE WERE SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IN LIGHT
RAIN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL. APPROACHING 500MB LOW AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO SPREAD SNOW AND AREAS OF IFR
CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. VEERING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 071804
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LARGE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN IMPACTS OF WIND
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE FELT WEST OF THE AREA TOWARD MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR THIS REGION...A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT MIX TODAY. AS SATURATION
OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE
MIX WILL TURN TO SNOW AND THE SNOW COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE STATE.

ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A GRADUAL ACCUMULATION. COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO POUR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS OVER FAR NC WI CLOSE BEHIND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISSUED A
WINTER ADVISORY OVER VILAS FOR THE COMBO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
FROM THE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. STARTED THE HEADLINE AT
00Z MONDAY TO MATCH UP WITH DLH AND MQT...BUT ANTICIPATE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO START LATER EVENING.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ON A DECLINE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES OVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WL CONT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY FLATTENING FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...WE WL MAINTAIN UPR RIDGING OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND UPR TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS. NE WI TO STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW THRU TUE...THEN HAVING TO DEAL WITH AN ARCTIC AIR
INTRUSION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI WL BE A CONCERN WHENEVER TRAJS BECOME FAVORABLE AND
THIS WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

A PERSISTENT N-NW CYCLONIC FLOW IS FCST FOR MON NGT THRU TUE...
THAT WL CONT TO DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -16C ON MON NGT AND FALL INTO THE -18C TO
-22C RANGE ON TUE. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE INTO THE E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF...SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER NE
WI...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL (LK EFFECT) AND ERN WI (WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE TO EXIST). WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS (AN INCH OR LESS)...MAIN CONCERN WL BE N-CNTRL WI
(PRIMARILY VILAS CNTY) AS TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND DELTA-T VALUES
RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 20S BY TUE. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS OVER
VILAS CNTY UP TO LIKELY WITH A MON NGT/TUE SNOW TOTAL IN THE 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WL BEGIN THEIR DOWNWARD SLIDE AS THE MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR GRADUALLY TAKES OVER. LOOK FOR LOWS MON NGT TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CNTRL WI...TEENS FOR ERN WI. HI TEMPS
ON TUE TO ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS.

THE SLOW OVERALL EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WL KEEP THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THRU WED...ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
VILAS CNTY THRU TUE NGT BEFORE EASING IN INTENSITY ON WED AS SOME
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM HI PRES SITUATED
OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. HAVE AGAIN RAISED POPS FOR VILAS CNTY TUE
NGT TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI SHOULD
SEE SKIES GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TUE NGT INTO WED
WITH THE PREVAILING NW WINDS CONTINUING TO FEED COLD AIR INTO WI.
MIN TEMPS TUE NGT TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW CNTRL WI...TO
AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO NEAR LK MI WITH WIND CHILLS FROM 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

WE FINALLY LOSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTOGETHER BY WED NGT AS THE SFC
HI BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE...WED NGT WOULD END UP AS THE COLDEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED
FCST WITH THE TYPCIALLY COLDER SITES PERHAPS APPROACHING DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WHILE ONLY LAKESIDE AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
ZERO. THU LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE SFC HI IN OUR VCNTY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING SEWD ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE DIVIDING MILDER AIR FROM
THE ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE E-CNTRL UPR
TROF...THUS ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO APPROACH WI ON FRI AND
BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE THRU THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS
MORE AMPLITUDE WITH THE UPR TROF...THEREBY KEEPING THE WARMER AIR
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPING ANY PCPN AWAY FROM WI.
BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS BEING OVERZEALOUS IN BREAKING DOWN THE
PATTERN TOO QUICKLY AND PREFER TO LEAN THE FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MOST OF NE WI DRY FOR FRI...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHWRS OVER VILAS CNTY. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS
THEN FCST TO MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES NEXT SAT AND WL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CIGS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
THERE WERE SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IN LIGHT
RAIN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL. APPROACHING 500MB LOW AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO SPREAD SNOW AND AREAS OF IFR
CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. VEERING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 071804
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LARGE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN IMPACTS OF WIND
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE FELT WEST OF THE AREA TOWARD MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR THIS REGION...A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT MIX TODAY. AS SATURATION
OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE
MIX WILL TURN TO SNOW AND THE SNOW COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE STATE.

ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A GRADUAL ACCUMULATION. COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO POUR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS OVER FAR NC WI CLOSE BEHIND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISSUED A
WINTER ADVISORY OVER VILAS FOR THE COMBO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
FROM THE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. STARTED THE HEADLINE AT
00Z MONDAY TO MATCH UP WITH DLH AND MQT...BUT ANTICIPATE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO START LATER EVENING.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ON A DECLINE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES OVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WL CONT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY FLATTENING FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...WE WL MAINTAIN UPR RIDGING OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND UPR TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS. NE WI TO STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW THRU TUE...THEN HAVING TO DEAL WITH AN ARCTIC AIR
INTRUSION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI WL BE A CONCERN WHENEVER TRAJS BECOME FAVORABLE AND
THIS WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

A PERSISTENT N-NW CYCLONIC FLOW IS FCST FOR MON NGT THRU TUE...
THAT WL CONT TO DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -16C ON MON NGT AND FALL INTO THE -18C TO
-22C RANGE ON TUE. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE INTO THE E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF...SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER NE
WI...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL (LK EFFECT) AND ERN WI (WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE TO EXIST). WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS (AN INCH OR LESS)...MAIN CONCERN WL BE N-CNTRL WI
(PRIMARILY VILAS CNTY) AS TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND DELTA-T VALUES
RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 20S BY TUE. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS OVER
VILAS CNTY UP TO LIKELY WITH A MON NGT/TUE SNOW TOTAL IN THE 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WL BEGIN THEIR DOWNWARD SLIDE AS THE MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR GRADUALLY TAKES OVER. LOOK FOR LOWS MON NGT TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CNTRL WI...TEENS FOR ERN WI. HI TEMPS
ON TUE TO ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS.

THE SLOW OVERALL EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WL KEEP THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THRU WED...ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
VILAS CNTY THRU TUE NGT BEFORE EASING IN INTENSITY ON WED AS SOME
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM HI PRES SITUATED
OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. HAVE AGAIN RAISED POPS FOR VILAS CNTY TUE
NGT TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI SHOULD
SEE SKIES GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TUE NGT INTO WED
WITH THE PREVAILING NW WINDS CONTINUING TO FEED COLD AIR INTO WI.
MIN TEMPS TUE NGT TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW CNTRL WI...TO
AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO NEAR LK MI WITH WIND CHILLS FROM 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

WE FINALLY LOSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTOGETHER BY WED NGT AS THE SFC
HI BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE...WED NGT WOULD END UP AS THE COLDEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED
FCST WITH THE TYPCIALLY COLDER SITES PERHAPS APPROACHING DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WHILE ONLY LAKESIDE AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
ZERO. THU LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE SFC HI IN OUR VCNTY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING SEWD ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE DIVIDING MILDER AIR FROM
THE ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE E-CNTRL UPR
TROF...THUS ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO APPROACH WI ON FRI AND
BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE THRU THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS
MORE AMPLITUDE WITH THE UPR TROF...THEREBY KEEPING THE WARMER AIR
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPING ANY PCPN AWAY FROM WI.
BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS BEING OVERZEALOUS IN BREAKING DOWN THE
PATTERN TOO QUICKLY AND PREFER TO LEAN THE FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MOST OF NE WI DRY FOR FRI...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHWRS OVER VILAS CNTY. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS
THEN FCST TO MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES NEXT SAT AND WL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CIGS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
THERE WERE SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IN LIGHT
RAIN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL. APPROACHING 500MB LOW AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO SPREAD SNOW AND AREAS OF IFR
CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. VEERING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 071059
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
459 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LARGE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN IMPACTS OF WIND
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE FELT WEST OF THE AREA TOWARD MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR THIS REGION...A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT MIX TODAY. AS SATURATION
OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE
MIX WILL TURN TO SNOW AND THE SNOW COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE STATE.

ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A GRADUAL ACCUMULATION. COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO POUR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS OVER FAR NC WI CLOSE BEHIND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISSUED A
WINTER ADVISORY OVER VILAS FOR THE COMBO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
FROM THE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. STARTED THE HEADLINE AT
00Z MONDAY TO MATCH UP WITH DLH AND MQT...BUT ANTICIPATE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO START LATER EVENING.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ON A DECLINE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES OVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WL CONT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY FLATTENING FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...WE WL MAINTAIN UPR RIDGING OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND UPR TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS. NE WI TO STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW THRU TUE...THEN HAVING TO DEAL WITH AN ARCTIC AIR
INTRUSION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI WL BE A CONCERN WHENEVER TRAJS BECOME FAVORABLE AND
THIS WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

A PERSISTENT N-NW CYCLONIC FLOW IS FCST FOR MON NGT THRU TUE...
THAT WL CONT TO DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -16C ON MON NGT AND FALL INTO THE -18C TO
-22C RANGE ON TUE. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE INTO THE E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF...SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER NE
WI...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL (LK EFFECT) AND ERN WI (WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE TO EXIST). WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS (AN INCH OR LESS)...MAIN CONCERN WL BE N-CNTRL WI
(PRIMARILY VILAS CNTY) AS TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND DELTA-T VALUES
RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 20S BY TUE. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS OVER
VILAS CNTY UP TO LIKELY WITH A MON NGT/TUE SNOW TOTAL IN THE 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WL BEGIN THEIR DOWNWARD SLIDE AS THE MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR GRADUALLY TAKES OVER. LOOK FOR LOWS MON NGT TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CNTRL WI...TEENS FOR ERN WI. HI TEMPS
ON TUE TO ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS.

THE SLOW OVERALL EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WL KEEP THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THRU WED...ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
VILAS CNTY THRU TUE NGT BEFORE EASING IN INTENSITY ON WED AS SOME
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM HI PRES SITUATED
OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. HAVE AGAIN RAISED POPS FOR VILAS CNTY TUE
NGT TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI SHOULD
SEE SKIES GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TUE NGT INTO WED
WITH THE PREVAILING NW WINDS CONTINUING TO FEED COLD AIR INTO WI.
MIN TEMPS TUE NGT TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW CNTRL WI...TO
AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO NEAR LK MI WITH WIND CHILLS FROM 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

WE FINALLY LOSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTOGETHER BY WED NGT AS THE SFC
HI BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE...WED NGT WOULD END UP AS THE COLDEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED
FCST WITH THE TYPCIALLY COLDER SITES PERHAPS APPROACHING DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WHILE ONLY LAKESIDE AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
ZERO. THU LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE SFC HI IN OUR VCNTY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING SEWD ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE DIVIDING MILDER AIR FROM
THE ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE E-CNTRL UPR
TROF...THUS ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO APPROACH WI ON FRI AND
BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE THRU THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS
MORE AMPLITUDE WITH THE UPR TROF...THEREBY KEEPING THE WARMER AIR
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPING ANY PCPN AWAY FROM WI.
BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS BEING OVERZEALOUS IN BREAKING DOWN THE
PATTERN TOO QUICKLY AND PREFER TO LEAN THE FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MOST OF NE WI DRY FOR FRI...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHWRS OVER VILAS CNTY. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS
THEN FCST TO MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES NEXT SAT AND WL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THROUGH MID MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 070932
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A LARGE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN IMPACTS OF WIND
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE FELT WEST OF THE AREA TOWARD MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR THIS REGION...A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT MIX TODAY. AS SATURATION
OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE
MIX WILL TURN TO SNOW AND THE SNOW COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE STATE.

ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A GRADUAL ACCUMULATION. COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO POUR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS OVER FAR NC WI CLOSE BEHIND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ISSUED A
WINTER ADVISORY OVER VILAS FOR THE COMBO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
FROM THE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. STARTED THE HEADLINE AT
00Z MONDAY TO MATCH UP WITH DLH AND MQT...BUT ANTICIPATE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO START LATER EVENING.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ON A DECLINE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES OVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WL CONT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY FLATTENING FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...WE WL MAINTAIN UPR RIDGING OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND UPR TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS. NE WI TO STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW THRU TUE...THEN HAVING TO DEAL WITH AN ARCTIC AIR
INTRUSION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI WL BE A CONCERN WHENEVER TRAJS BECOME FAVORABLE AND
THIS WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

A PERSISTENT N-NW CYCLONIC FLOW IS FCST FOR MON NGT THRU TUE...
THAT WL CONT TO DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -16C ON MON NGT AND FALL INTO THE -18C TO
-22C RANGE ON TUE. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE INTO THE E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF...SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER NE
WI...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL (LK EFFECT) AND ERN WI (WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE TO EXIST). WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS (AN INCH OR LESS)...MAIN CONCERN WL BE N-CNTRL WI
(PRIMARILY VILAS CNTY) AS TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND DELTA-T VALUES
RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 20S BY TUE. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS OVER
VILAS CNTY UP TO LIKELY WITH A MON NGT/TUE SNOW TOTAL IN THE 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WL BEGIN THEIR DOWNWARD SLIDE AS THE MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR GRADUALLY TAKES OVER. LOOK FOR LOWS MON NGT TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CNTRL WI...TEENS FOR ERN WI. HI TEMPS
ON TUE TO ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS.

THE SLOW OVERALL EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WL KEEP THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THRU WED...ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
VILAS CNTY THRU TUE NGT BEFORE EASING IN INTENSITY ON WED AS SOME
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM HI PRES SITUATED
OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. HAVE AGAIN RAISED POPS FOR VILAS CNTY TUE
NGT TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI SHOULD
SEE SKIES GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TUE NGT INTO WED
WITH THE PREVAILING NW WINDS CONTINUING TO FEED COLD AIR INTO WI.
MIN TEMPS TUE NGT TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW CNTRL WI...TO
AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO NEAR LK MI WITH WIND CHILLS FROM 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

WE FINALLY LOSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTOGETHER BY WED NGT AS THE SFC
HI BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE...WED NGT WOULD END UP AS THE COLDEST NGT OF THE EXTENDED
FCST WITH THE TYPCIALLY COLDER SITES PERHAPS APPROACHING DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WHILE ONLY LAKESIDE AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
ZERO. THU LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE SFC HI IN OUR VCNTY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING SEWD ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE DIVIDING MILDER AIR FROM
THE ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE E-CNTRL UPR
TROF...THUS ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO APPROACH WI ON FRI AND
BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE THRU THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS
MORE AMPLITUDE WITH THE UPR TROF...THEREBY KEEPING THE WARMER AIR
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPING ANY PCPN AWAY FROM WI.
BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS BEING OVERZEALOUS IN BREAKING DOWN THE
PATTERN TOO QUICKLY AND PREFER TO LEAN THE FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MOST OF NE WI DRY FOR FRI...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHWRS OVER VILAS CNTY. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS
THEN FCST TO MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES NEXT SAT AND WL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF FORAYS INTO
MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW IMPACTS THE TAF SITES FROM AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A TEMPO GROUP ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOLID MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
BEAR THIS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SUNDAY EVENING...THEREFORE WILL PLACE A PROB30 GROUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TAF SITES WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 070444
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1044 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADING FOR THE AREA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM AMPLIFIES...AND A 500MB LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TODAY...WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM. 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM BUFKIT
TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
SHOWED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR MIX THOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH
IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...TO A DUSTING OR NOTHING AT ALL IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY. INCREASING
WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
GREAT LAKES REGION DOMINATED BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH AND SHARP
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM
START MONDAY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BY 00Z MONDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STACKED SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
ONLY LOOKING AT LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE STATE...LOWER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WEAK 850 MB WAA
OCCURING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND FOX VALLEY ROUGHLY BEWTEEN
ABOUT 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
IMPETUS TOWARD SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED AND ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CAPTURE THE ESSENCE
OF THIS AND BOTH SUGEST A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST OVER THE FOX VALLEY PERHAPS AS LATE AS 06Z
TUESDAY. DID TRY TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BY RAISING THE POPS
AND QPF SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING SNOW RATIOS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE COULD BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. RIGHT
NOW LOOKING AT PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO DURING THIS PERIOD IN CONCERT
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION DO NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
PROGRESS EASTWARD ON TUEDSAY...WITH MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HOLDING ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE SO MADE NO
CHANGES THERE. MEANWHILE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FETCH IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFORMENTIONED SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT REGION AND
VILAS COUNTY. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FETCH AND
OVERWATER INSTABLITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY TYPE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.

NEXT REMOTE SHOT AT SOME SYNOPTIC-TYPE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY
CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE AROUND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST PRIMARY FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER CAN CERTAINLY COUNT
ON MUCH COLDER AIR TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. INITIALLY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LAKE MODIFIED AIR HANGING ON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THEREAFTER...AXIS OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST. AT THIS TIME
THE COLDEST MORNINGS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW ZERO
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THURSDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GEFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF FORAYS INTO
MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW IMPACTS THE TAF SITES FROM AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A TEMPO GROUP ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOLID MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
BEAR THIS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SUNDAY EVENING...THEREFORE WILL PLACE A PROB30 GROUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TAF SITES WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 070444
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1044 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADING FOR THE AREA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM AMPLIFIES...AND A 500MB LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TODAY...WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM. 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM BUFKIT
TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
SHOWED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR MIX THOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH
IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...TO A DUSTING OR NOTHING AT ALL IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY. INCREASING
WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
GREAT LAKES REGION DOMINATED BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH AND SHARP
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM
START MONDAY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BY 00Z MONDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STACKED SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
ONLY LOOKING AT LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE STATE...LOWER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WEAK 850 MB WAA
OCCURING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND FOX VALLEY ROUGHLY BEWTEEN
ABOUT 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
IMPETUS TOWARD SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED AND ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CAPTURE THE ESSENCE
OF THIS AND BOTH SUGEST A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST OVER THE FOX VALLEY PERHAPS AS LATE AS 06Z
TUESDAY. DID TRY TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BY RAISING THE POPS
AND QPF SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING SNOW RATIOS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE COULD BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. RIGHT
NOW LOOKING AT PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO DURING THIS PERIOD IN CONCERT
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION DO NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
PROGRESS EASTWARD ON TUEDSAY...WITH MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HOLDING ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE SO MADE NO
CHANGES THERE. MEANWHILE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FETCH IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFORMENTIONED SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT REGION AND
VILAS COUNTY. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FETCH AND
OVERWATER INSTABLITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY TYPE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.

NEXT REMOTE SHOT AT SOME SYNOPTIC-TYPE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY
CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE AROUND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST PRIMARY FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER CAN CERTAINLY COUNT
ON MUCH COLDER AIR TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. INITIALLY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LAKE MODIFIED AIR HANGING ON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THEREAFTER...AXIS OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST. AT THIS TIME
THE COLDEST MORNINGS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW ZERO
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THURSDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GEFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF FORAYS INTO
MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW IMPACTS THE TAF SITES FROM AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A TEMPO GROUP ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOLID MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
BEAR THIS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SUNDAY EVENING...THEREFORE WILL PLACE A PROB30 GROUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TAF SITES WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 070444
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1044 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADING FOR THE AREA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM AMPLIFIES...AND A 500MB LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TODAY...WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM. 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM BUFKIT
TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
SHOWED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR MIX THOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH
IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...TO A DUSTING OR NOTHING AT ALL IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY. INCREASING
WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
GREAT LAKES REGION DOMINATED BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH AND SHARP
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM
START MONDAY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BY 00Z MONDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STACKED SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
ONLY LOOKING AT LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE STATE...LOWER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WEAK 850 MB WAA
OCCURING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND FOX VALLEY ROUGHLY BEWTEEN
ABOUT 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
IMPETUS TOWARD SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED AND ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CAPTURE THE ESSENCE
OF THIS AND BOTH SUGEST A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST OVER THE FOX VALLEY PERHAPS AS LATE AS 06Z
TUESDAY. DID TRY TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BY RAISING THE POPS
AND QPF SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING SNOW RATIOS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE COULD BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. RIGHT
NOW LOOKING AT PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO DURING THIS PERIOD IN CONCERT
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION DO NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
PROGRESS EASTWARD ON TUEDSAY...WITH MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HOLDING ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE SO MADE NO
CHANGES THERE. MEANWHILE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FETCH IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFORMENTIONED SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT REGION AND
VILAS COUNTY. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FETCH AND
OVERWATER INSTABLITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY TYPE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.

NEXT REMOTE SHOT AT SOME SYNOPTIC-TYPE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY
CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE AROUND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST PRIMARY FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER CAN CERTAINLY COUNT
ON MUCH COLDER AIR TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. INITIALLY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LAKE MODIFIED AIR HANGING ON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THEREAFTER...AXIS OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST. AT THIS TIME
THE COLDEST MORNINGS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW ZERO
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THURSDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GEFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF FORAYS INTO
MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW IMPACTS THE TAF SITES FROM AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A TEMPO GROUP ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOLID MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
BEAR THIS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SUNDAY EVENING...THEREFORE WILL PLACE A PROB30 GROUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TAF SITES WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 062257
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
457 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADING FOR THE AREA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM AMPLIFIES...AND A 500MB LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TODAY...WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM. 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM BUFKIT
TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
SHOWED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR MIX THOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH
IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...TO A DUSTING OR NOTHING AT ALL IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY. INCREASING
WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
GREAT LAKES REGION DOMINATED BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH AND SHARP
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM
START MONDAY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BY 00Z MONDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STACKED SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
ONLY LOOKING AT LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE STATE...LOWER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WEAK 850 MB WAA
OCCURING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND FOX VALLEY ROUGHLY BEWTEEN
ABOUT 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
IMPETUS TOWARD SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED AND ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CAPTURE THE ESSENCE
OF THIS AND BOTH SUGEST A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST OVER THE FOX VALLEY PERHAPS AS LATE AS 06Z
TUESDAY. DID TRY TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BY RAISING THE POPS
AND QPF SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING SNOW RATIOS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE COULD BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. RIGHT
NOW LOOKING AT PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO DURING THIS PERIOD IN CONCERT
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION DO NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
PROGRESS EASTWARD ON TUEDSAY...WITH MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HOLDING ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE SO MADE NO
CHANGES THERE. MEANWHILE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FETCH IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFORMENTIONED SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT REGION AND
VILAS COUNTY. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FETCH AND
OVERWATER INSTABLITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY TYPE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.

NEXT REMOTE SHOT AT SOME SYNOPTIC-TYPE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY
CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE AROUND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST PRIMARY FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER CAN CERTAINLY COUNT
ON MUCH COLDER AIR TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. INITIALLY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LAKE MODIFIED AIR HANGING ON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THEREAFTER...AXIS OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST. AT THIS TIME
THE COLDEST MORNINGS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW ZERO
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THURSDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GEFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CIGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE A PROB30 WITH MVFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING
RHI...BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF THIS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW TO AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA IS GOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS IS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WITH THIS CLIPPER...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
BEAR THIS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 062257
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
457 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADING FOR THE AREA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM AMPLIFIES...AND A 500MB LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TODAY...WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM. 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM BUFKIT
TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
SHOWED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR MIX THOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH
IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...TO A DUSTING OR NOTHING AT ALL IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY. INCREASING
WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
GREAT LAKES REGION DOMINATED BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH AND SHARP
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM
START MONDAY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BY 00Z MONDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STACKED SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
ONLY LOOKING AT LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE STATE...LOWER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WEAK 850 MB WAA
OCCURING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND FOX VALLEY ROUGHLY BEWTEEN
ABOUT 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
IMPETUS TOWARD SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED AND ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CAPTURE THE ESSENCE
OF THIS AND BOTH SUGEST A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST OVER THE FOX VALLEY PERHAPS AS LATE AS 06Z
TUESDAY. DID TRY TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BY RAISING THE POPS
AND QPF SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING SNOW RATIOS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE COULD BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. RIGHT
NOW LOOKING AT PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO DURING THIS PERIOD IN CONCERT
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION DO NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
PROGRESS EASTWARD ON TUEDSAY...WITH MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HOLDING ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE SO MADE NO
CHANGES THERE. MEANWHILE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FETCH IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFORMENTIONED SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT REGION AND
VILAS COUNTY. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FETCH AND
OVERWATER INSTABLITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY TYPE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.

NEXT REMOTE SHOT AT SOME SYNOPTIC-TYPE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY
CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE AROUND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST PRIMARY FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER CAN CERTAINLY COUNT
ON MUCH COLDER AIR TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. INITIALLY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LAKE MODIFIED AIR HANGING ON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THEREAFTER...AXIS OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST. AT THIS TIME
THE COLDEST MORNINGS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW ZERO
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THURSDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GEFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CIGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE A PROB30 WITH MVFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING
RHI...BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF THIS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW TO AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA IS GOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS IS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WITH THIS CLIPPER...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
BEAR THIS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 062257
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
457 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADING FOR THE AREA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM AMPLIFIES...AND A 500MB LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TODAY...WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM. 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM BUFKIT
TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
SHOWED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR MIX THOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH
IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...TO A DUSTING OR NOTHING AT ALL IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY. INCREASING
WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
GREAT LAKES REGION DOMINATED BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH AND SHARP
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM
START MONDAY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BY 00Z MONDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STACKED SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
ONLY LOOKING AT LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE STATE...LOWER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WEAK 850 MB WAA
OCCURING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND FOX VALLEY ROUGHLY BEWTEEN
ABOUT 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
IMPETUS TOWARD SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED AND ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CAPTURE THE ESSENCE
OF THIS AND BOTH SUGEST A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST OVER THE FOX VALLEY PERHAPS AS LATE AS 06Z
TUESDAY. DID TRY TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BY RAISING THE POPS
AND QPF SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING SNOW RATIOS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE COULD BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. RIGHT
NOW LOOKING AT PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO DURING THIS PERIOD IN CONCERT
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION DO NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
PROGRESS EASTWARD ON TUEDSAY...WITH MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HOLDING ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE SO MADE NO
CHANGES THERE. MEANWHILE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FETCH IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFORMENTIONED SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT REGION AND
VILAS COUNTY. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FETCH AND
OVERWATER INSTABLITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY TYPE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.

NEXT REMOTE SHOT AT SOME SYNOPTIC-TYPE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY
CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE AROUND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST PRIMARY FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER CAN CERTAINLY COUNT
ON MUCH COLDER AIR TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. INITIALLY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LAKE MODIFIED AIR HANGING ON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THEREAFTER...AXIS OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST. AT THIS TIME
THE COLDEST MORNINGS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW ZERO
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THURSDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GEFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CIGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE A PROB30 WITH MVFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING
RHI...BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF THIS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW TO AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA IS GOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS IS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WITH THIS CLIPPER...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
BEAR THIS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 062043
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADING FOR THE AREA IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM AMPLIFIES...AND A 500MB LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TODAY...WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM. 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM BUFKIT
TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
SHOWED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR MIX THOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH
IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...TO A DUSTING OR NOTHING AT ALL IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY. INCREASING
WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
GREAT LAKES REGION DOMINATED BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH AND SHARP
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM
START MONDAY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BY 00Z MONDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STACKED SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
ONLY LOOKING AT LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE STATE...LOWER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WEAK 850 MB WAA
OCCURING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND FOX VALLEY ROUGHLY BEWTEEN
ABOUT 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
IMPETUS TOWARD SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED AND ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CAPTURE THE ESSENCE
OF THIS AND BOTH SUGEST A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST OVER THE FOX VALLEY PERHAPS AS LATE AS 06Z
TUESDAY. DID TRY TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BY RAISING THE POPS
AND QPF SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING SNOW RATIOS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE COULD BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED OVER THE FOX VALLEY. RIGHT
NOW LOOKING AT PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO DURING THIS PERIOD IN CONCERT
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION DO NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
PROGRESS EASTWARD ON TUEDSAY...WITH MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HOLDING ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE SO MADE NO
CHANGES THERE. MEANWHILE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FETCH IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFORMENTIONED SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT REGION AND
VILAS COUNTY. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FETCH AND
OVERWATER INSTABLITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY TYPE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.

NEXT REMOTE SHOT AT SOME SYNOPTIC-TYPE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY
CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE AROUND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST PRIMARY FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER CAN CERTAINLY COUNT
ON MUCH COLDER AIR TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. INITIALLY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LAKE MODIFIED AIR HANGING ON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THEREAFTER...AXIS OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST. AT THIS TIME
THE COLDEST MORNINGS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW ZERO
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THURSDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GEFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MVFR CIGS...WITH A FEW IFR CIGS...PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND THE 12Z NAM CONTINUING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THERE
WERE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THINK MVFR AND IFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON TODAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CIGS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE A PROB30 WITH MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING RHI...BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THIS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING SNOW TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA IS GOOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 061754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE LAST OF A PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SLIDE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS INDICATE FLURRIES MAINLY
FALLING FROM THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE FOCUS TURNS TO A
STRONGER SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

THE PREVIOUS CLIPPERS THE LAST FEW DAYS WERE ALWAYS FOLLOWED WITH
A CLEARING TREND...HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WISCONSIN INTO
MINNESOTA IN A REGION OF WAA AHEAD OF SLOWLY EVOLVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY
GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

PCPN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THE ONSET WITH THE ONGOING WAA
TONIGHT DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRENDING
TOWARD A MIX PCPN TYPE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTS A MIX OF ZR-/S- BUT FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND WOULD SUPPORT A R-/S-.

WARM START THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORM
LEVELS TODAY...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THEN
MUCH ABOVE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF STG UPR RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM
AND DEEP UPR TROFFING OVER E-CNTRL NOAM TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN A BIT FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTS TO BE THE
MOVEMENT OF A STG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPR LOW
THAT LW IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY EARLY
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI.

SNOW CHCS TO INCREASE ACROSS NE WI SUNDAY NGT AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS E-SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT AND A
NEARLY CLOSED UPR LOW. WHILE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONE-HALF INCH NEAR LAKE MI TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OVER N-CNTRL WI...THIS MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON AREA ROADWAYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S ERN WI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO MON...MAINLY DUE TO A
STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WI TO RESIDE
ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO FALL OVER THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATIONS
AT AN INCH OR LESS. THIS FRESH SNOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASING N-NW
WINDS WL TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE SNOW AROUND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH REDUCED VSBYS. ONSET OF CAA WL TEMPER
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE ON MON DESPITE THE MILD START TO THE
DAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LWR TO MID 20S
N-CNTRL...BUT LWR 30S FOR E-CNTRL WI.

LIGHT SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SNOW SHWRS...SHOULD LINGER THRU
MON NGT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH MOST AREAS UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH AT BEST. THIS WOULD BRING ENTIRE STORM TOTALS INTO
THE 1-3" RANGE THRU MON NGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE N-CNTRL WI WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WL PERSIST SINCE TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND
DELTA-T VALUES TO RESIDE IN THE LWR 20S. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD
SEE TOTALS OF 3-5" COMBINED FROM SUNDAY NGT THRU MON NGT. MIN
TEMPS FOR MON NGT WL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE CNTRL WI...TO THE
UPR TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE.
PREVAILING N-NW WINDS...AIDED BY A WEAK WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATED
SFC TROF...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
N-CNTRL WI. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS NEAR
LAKE MI THAT WOULD DRIFT S-SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL FALL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON TUE WITH READINGS ONLY FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE
N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 20 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS SHOULD CARRY OVER THRU TUE NGT AND
MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED AS THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED
WITH ARCTIC AIR...SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF LETTING UP. A RDG OF HI PRES
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN ON
WED AND START TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW. THIS WOULD
GRADUALLY KEEP THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE MI
BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE
AREA...ALTHO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS TO REMAIN DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL (UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS NORTH...MAINLY
MID TEENS SOUTH).

THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MVOE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED
NGT AND BRING A VERY COLD NGT TO THE REGION. MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPS DOWN FURTHER WITH SUB-ZERO MINS NORTH AND PART OF CNTRL
WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON
THU WITH THE SFC HI IN CONTROL OF NE WI WEATHER. MODELS CONT TO
SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER TO RACE EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER AND DRAG A CDFNT THRU WI ON FRI. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THU EVENING WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FCST TO ARRIVE
LATER THU NGT THAT WOULD CONT INTO FRI. ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHCS
WOULD BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WOULD PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MVFR CIGS...WITH A FEW IFR CIGS...PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND THE 12Z NAM CONTINUING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THERE
WERE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THINK MVFR AND IFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON TODAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CIGS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE A PROB30 WITH MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING RHI...BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THIS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING SNOW TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA IS GOOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 061754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE LAST OF A PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SLIDE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS INDICATE FLURRIES MAINLY
FALLING FROM THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE FOCUS TURNS TO A
STRONGER SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

THE PREVIOUS CLIPPERS THE LAST FEW DAYS WERE ALWAYS FOLLOWED WITH
A CLEARING TREND...HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WISCONSIN INTO
MINNESOTA IN A REGION OF WAA AHEAD OF SLOWLY EVOLVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY
GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

PCPN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THE ONSET WITH THE ONGOING WAA
TONIGHT DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRENDING
TOWARD A MIX PCPN TYPE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTS A MIX OF ZR-/S- BUT FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND WOULD SUPPORT A R-/S-.

WARM START THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORM
LEVELS TODAY...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THEN
MUCH ABOVE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF STG UPR RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM
AND DEEP UPR TROFFING OVER E-CNTRL NOAM TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN A BIT FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTS TO BE THE
MOVEMENT OF A STG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPR LOW
THAT LW IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY EARLY
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI.

SNOW CHCS TO INCREASE ACROSS NE WI SUNDAY NGT AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS E-SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT AND A
NEARLY CLOSED UPR LOW. WHILE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONE-HALF INCH NEAR LAKE MI TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OVER N-CNTRL WI...THIS MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON AREA ROADWAYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S ERN WI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO MON...MAINLY DUE TO A
STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WI TO RESIDE
ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO FALL OVER THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATIONS
AT AN INCH OR LESS. THIS FRESH SNOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASING N-NW
WINDS WL TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE SNOW AROUND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH REDUCED VSBYS. ONSET OF CAA WL TEMPER
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE ON MON DESPITE THE MILD START TO THE
DAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LWR TO MID 20S
N-CNTRL...BUT LWR 30S FOR E-CNTRL WI.

LIGHT SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SNOW SHWRS...SHOULD LINGER THRU
MON NGT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH MOST AREAS UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH AT BEST. THIS WOULD BRING ENTIRE STORM TOTALS INTO
THE 1-3" RANGE THRU MON NGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE N-CNTRL WI WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WL PERSIST SINCE TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND
DELTA-T VALUES TO RESIDE IN THE LWR 20S. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD
SEE TOTALS OF 3-5" COMBINED FROM SUNDAY NGT THRU MON NGT. MIN
TEMPS FOR MON NGT WL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE CNTRL WI...TO THE
UPR TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE.
PREVAILING N-NW WINDS...AIDED BY A WEAK WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATED
SFC TROF...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
N-CNTRL WI. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS NEAR
LAKE MI THAT WOULD DRIFT S-SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL FALL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON TUE WITH READINGS ONLY FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE
N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 20 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS SHOULD CARRY OVER THRU TUE NGT AND
MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED AS THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED
WITH ARCTIC AIR...SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF LETTING UP. A RDG OF HI PRES
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN ON
WED AND START TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW. THIS WOULD
GRADUALLY KEEP THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE MI
BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE
AREA...ALTHO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS TO REMAIN DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL (UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS NORTH...MAINLY
MID TEENS SOUTH).

THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MVOE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED
NGT AND BRING A VERY COLD NGT TO THE REGION. MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPS DOWN FURTHER WITH SUB-ZERO MINS NORTH AND PART OF CNTRL
WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON
THU WITH THE SFC HI IN CONTROL OF NE WI WEATHER. MODELS CONT TO
SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER TO RACE EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER AND DRAG A CDFNT THRU WI ON FRI. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THU EVENING WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FCST TO ARRIVE
LATER THU NGT THAT WOULD CONT INTO FRI. ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHCS
WOULD BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WOULD PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MVFR CIGS...WITH A FEW IFR CIGS...PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND THE 12Z NAM CONTINUING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THERE
WERE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THINK MVFR AND IFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON TODAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CIGS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE A PROB30 WITH MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING RHI...BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THIS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING SNOW TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA IS GOOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 061754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE LAST OF A PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SLIDE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS INDICATE FLURRIES MAINLY
FALLING FROM THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE FOCUS TURNS TO A
STRONGER SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

THE PREVIOUS CLIPPERS THE LAST FEW DAYS WERE ALWAYS FOLLOWED WITH
A CLEARING TREND...HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WISCONSIN INTO
MINNESOTA IN A REGION OF WAA AHEAD OF SLOWLY EVOLVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY
GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

PCPN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THE ONSET WITH THE ONGOING WAA
TONIGHT DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRENDING
TOWARD A MIX PCPN TYPE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTS A MIX OF ZR-/S- BUT FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND WOULD SUPPORT A R-/S-.

WARM START THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORM
LEVELS TODAY...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THEN
MUCH ABOVE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF STG UPR RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM
AND DEEP UPR TROFFING OVER E-CNTRL NOAM TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN A BIT FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTS TO BE THE
MOVEMENT OF A STG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPR LOW
THAT LW IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY EARLY
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI.

SNOW CHCS TO INCREASE ACROSS NE WI SUNDAY NGT AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS E-SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT AND A
NEARLY CLOSED UPR LOW. WHILE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONE-HALF INCH NEAR LAKE MI TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OVER N-CNTRL WI...THIS MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON AREA ROADWAYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S ERN WI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO MON...MAINLY DUE TO A
STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WI TO RESIDE
ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO FALL OVER THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATIONS
AT AN INCH OR LESS. THIS FRESH SNOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASING N-NW
WINDS WL TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE SNOW AROUND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH REDUCED VSBYS. ONSET OF CAA WL TEMPER
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE ON MON DESPITE THE MILD START TO THE
DAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LWR TO MID 20S
N-CNTRL...BUT LWR 30S FOR E-CNTRL WI.

LIGHT SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SNOW SHWRS...SHOULD LINGER THRU
MON NGT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH MOST AREAS UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH AT BEST. THIS WOULD BRING ENTIRE STORM TOTALS INTO
THE 1-3" RANGE THRU MON NGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE N-CNTRL WI WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WL PERSIST SINCE TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND
DELTA-T VALUES TO RESIDE IN THE LWR 20S. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD
SEE TOTALS OF 3-5" COMBINED FROM SUNDAY NGT THRU MON NGT. MIN
TEMPS FOR MON NGT WL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE CNTRL WI...TO THE
UPR TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE.
PREVAILING N-NW WINDS...AIDED BY A WEAK WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATED
SFC TROF...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
N-CNTRL WI. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS NEAR
LAKE MI THAT WOULD DRIFT S-SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL FALL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON TUE WITH READINGS ONLY FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE
N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 20 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS SHOULD CARRY OVER THRU TUE NGT AND
MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED AS THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED
WITH ARCTIC AIR...SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF LETTING UP. A RDG OF HI PRES
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN ON
WED AND START TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW. THIS WOULD
GRADUALLY KEEP THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE MI
BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE
AREA...ALTHO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS TO REMAIN DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL (UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS NORTH...MAINLY
MID TEENS SOUTH).

THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MVOE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED
NGT AND BRING A VERY COLD NGT TO THE REGION. MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPS DOWN FURTHER WITH SUB-ZERO MINS NORTH AND PART OF CNTRL
WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON
THU WITH THE SFC HI IN CONTROL OF NE WI WEATHER. MODELS CONT TO
SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER TO RACE EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER AND DRAG A CDFNT THRU WI ON FRI. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THU EVENING WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FCST TO ARRIVE
LATER THU NGT THAT WOULD CONT INTO FRI. ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHCS
WOULD BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WOULD PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MVFR CIGS...WITH A FEW IFR CIGS...PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND THE 12Z NAM CONTINUING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THERE
WERE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THINK MVFR AND IFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON TODAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CIGS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE A PROB30 WITH MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING RHI...BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THIS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING SNOW TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA IS GOOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG





000
FXUS63 KGRB 061115
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
515 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE LAST OF A PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SLIDE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS INDICATE FLURRIES MAINLY
FALLING FROM THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE FOCUS TURNS TO A
STRONGER SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

THE PREVIOUS CLIPPERS THE LAST FEW DAYS WERE ALWAYS FOLLOWED WITH
A CLEARING TREND...HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WISCONSIN INTO
MINNESOTA IN A REGION OF WAA AHEAD OF SLOWLY EVOLVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY
GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

PCPN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THE ONSET WITH THE ONGOING WAA
TONIGHT DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRENDING
TOWARD A MIX PCPN TYPE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTS A MIX OF ZR-/S- BUT FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND WOULD SUPPORT A R-/S-.

WARM START THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORM
LEVELS TODAY...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THEN
MUCH ABOVE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF STG UPR RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM
AND DEEP UPR TROFFING OVER E-CNTRL NOAM TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN A BIT FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTS TO BE THE
MOVEMENT OF A STG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPR LOW
THAT LW IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY EARLY
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI.

SNOW CHCS TO INCREASE ACROSS NE WI SUNDAY NGT AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS E-SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT AND A
NEARLY CLOSED UPR LOW. WHILE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONE-HALF INCH NEAR LAKE MI TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OVER N-CNTRL WI...THIS MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON AREA ROADWAYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S ERN WI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO MON...MAINLY DUE TO A
STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WI TO RESIDE
ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO FALL OVER THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATIONS
AT AN INCH OR LESS. THIS FRESH SNOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASING N-NW
WINDS WL TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE SNOW AROUND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH REDUCED VSBYS. ONSET OF CAA WL TEMPER
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE ON MON DESPITE THE MILD START TO THE
DAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LWR TO MID 20S
N-CNTRL...BUT LWR 30S FOR E-CNTRL WI.

LIGHT SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SNOW SHWRS...SHOULD LINGER THRU
MON NGT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH MOST AREAS UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH AT BEST. THIS WOULD BRING ENTIRE STORM TOTALS INTO
THE 1-3" RANGE THRU MON NGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE N-CNTRL WI WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WL PERSIST SINCE TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND
DELTA-T VALUES TO RESIDE IN THE LWR 20S. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD
SEE TOTALS OF 3-5" COMBINED FROM SUNDAY NGT THRU MON NGT. MIN
TEMPS FOR MON NGT WL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE CNTRL WI...TO THE
UPR TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE.
PREVAILING N-NW WINDS...AIDED BY A WEAK WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATED
SFC TROF...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
N-CNTRL WI. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS NEAR
LAKE MI THAT WOULD DRIFT S-SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL FALL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON TUE WITH READINGS ONLY FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE
N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 20 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS SHOULD CARRY OVER THRU TUE NGT AND
MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED AS THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED
WITH ARCTIC AIR...SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF LETTING UP. A RDG OF HI PRES
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN ON
WED AND START TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW. THIS WOULD
GRADUALLY KEEP THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE MI
BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE
AREA...ALTHO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS TO REMAIN DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL (UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS NORTH...MAINLY
MID TEENS SOUTH).

THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MVOE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED
NGT AND BRING A VERY COLD NGT TO THE REGION. MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPS DOWN FURTHER WITH SUB-ZERO MINS NORTH AND PART OF CNTRL
WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON
THU WITH THE SFC HI IN CONTROL OF NE WI WEATHER. MODELS CONT TO
SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER TO RACE EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER AND DRAG A CDFNT THRU WI ON FRI. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THU EVENING WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FCST TO ARRIVE
LATER THU NGT THAT WOULD CONT INTO FRI. ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHCS
WOULD BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WOULD PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER EASTERN AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND MIXING INCREASE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 061115
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
515 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE LAST OF A PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SLIDE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS INDICATE FLURRIES MAINLY
FALLING FROM THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE FOCUS TURNS TO A
STRONGER SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

THE PREVIOUS CLIPPERS THE LAST FEW DAYS WERE ALWAYS FOLLOWED WITH
A CLEARING TREND...HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WISCONSIN INTO
MINNESOTA IN A REGION OF WAA AHEAD OF SLOWLY EVOLVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY
GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

PCPN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THE ONSET WITH THE ONGOING WAA
TONIGHT DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRENDING
TOWARD A MIX PCPN TYPE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTS A MIX OF ZR-/S- BUT FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND WOULD SUPPORT A R-/S-.

WARM START THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORM
LEVELS TODAY...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THEN
MUCH ABOVE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF STG UPR RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM
AND DEEP UPR TROFFING OVER E-CNTRL NOAM TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN A BIT FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTS TO BE THE
MOVEMENT OF A STG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPR LOW
THAT LW IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY EARLY
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI.

SNOW CHCS TO INCREASE ACROSS NE WI SUNDAY NGT AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS E-SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT AND A
NEARLY CLOSED UPR LOW. WHILE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONE-HALF INCH NEAR LAKE MI TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OVER N-CNTRL WI...THIS MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON AREA ROADWAYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S ERN WI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO MON...MAINLY DUE TO A
STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WI TO RESIDE
ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO FALL OVER THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATIONS
AT AN INCH OR LESS. THIS FRESH SNOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASING N-NW
WINDS WL TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE SNOW AROUND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH REDUCED VSBYS. ONSET OF CAA WL TEMPER
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE ON MON DESPITE THE MILD START TO THE
DAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LWR TO MID 20S
N-CNTRL...BUT LWR 30S FOR E-CNTRL WI.

LIGHT SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SNOW SHWRS...SHOULD LINGER THRU
MON NGT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH MOST AREAS UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH AT BEST. THIS WOULD BRING ENTIRE STORM TOTALS INTO
THE 1-3" RANGE THRU MON NGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE N-CNTRL WI WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WL PERSIST SINCE TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND
DELTA-T VALUES TO RESIDE IN THE LWR 20S. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD
SEE TOTALS OF 3-5" COMBINED FROM SUNDAY NGT THRU MON NGT. MIN
TEMPS FOR MON NGT WL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE CNTRL WI...TO THE
UPR TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE.
PREVAILING N-NW WINDS...AIDED BY A WEAK WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATED
SFC TROF...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
N-CNTRL WI. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS NEAR
LAKE MI THAT WOULD DRIFT S-SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL FALL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON TUE WITH READINGS ONLY FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE
N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 20 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS SHOULD CARRY OVER THRU TUE NGT AND
MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED AS THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED
WITH ARCTIC AIR...SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF LETTING UP. A RDG OF HI PRES
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN ON
WED AND START TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW. THIS WOULD
GRADUALLY KEEP THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE MI
BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE
AREA...ALTHO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS TO REMAIN DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL (UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS NORTH...MAINLY
MID TEENS SOUTH).

THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MVOE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED
NGT AND BRING A VERY COLD NGT TO THE REGION. MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPS DOWN FURTHER WITH SUB-ZERO MINS NORTH AND PART OF CNTRL
WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON
THU WITH THE SFC HI IN CONTROL OF NE WI WEATHER. MODELS CONT TO
SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER TO RACE EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER AND DRAG A CDFNT THRU WI ON FRI. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THU EVENING WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FCST TO ARRIVE
LATER THU NGT THAT WOULD CONT INTO FRI. ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHCS
WOULD BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WOULD PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER EASTERN AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND MIXING INCREASE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 061115
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
515 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE LAST OF A PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SLIDE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS INDICATE FLURRIES MAINLY
FALLING FROM THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE FOCUS TURNS TO A
STRONGER SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

THE PREVIOUS CLIPPERS THE LAST FEW DAYS WERE ALWAYS FOLLOWED WITH
A CLEARING TREND...HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WISCONSIN INTO
MINNESOTA IN A REGION OF WAA AHEAD OF SLOWLY EVOLVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY
GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

PCPN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THE ONSET WITH THE ONGOING WAA
TONIGHT DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRENDING
TOWARD A MIX PCPN TYPE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTS A MIX OF ZR-/S- BUT FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND WOULD SUPPORT A R-/S-.

WARM START THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORM
LEVELS TODAY...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THEN
MUCH ABOVE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF STG UPR RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM
AND DEEP UPR TROFFING OVER E-CNTRL NOAM TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN A BIT FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTS TO BE THE
MOVEMENT OF A STG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPR LOW
THAT LW IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY EARLY
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI.

SNOW CHCS TO INCREASE ACROSS NE WI SUNDAY NGT AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS E-SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT AND A
NEARLY CLOSED UPR LOW. WHILE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONE-HALF INCH NEAR LAKE MI TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OVER N-CNTRL WI...THIS MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON AREA ROADWAYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S ERN WI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO MON...MAINLY DUE TO A
STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WI TO RESIDE
ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO FALL OVER THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATIONS
AT AN INCH OR LESS. THIS FRESH SNOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASING N-NW
WINDS WL TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE SNOW AROUND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH REDUCED VSBYS. ONSET OF CAA WL TEMPER
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE ON MON DESPITE THE MILD START TO THE
DAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LWR TO MID 20S
N-CNTRL...BUT LWR 30S FOR E-CNTRL WI.

LIGHT SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SNOW SHWRS...SHOULD LINGER THRU
MON NGT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH MOST AREAS UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH AT BEST. THIS WOULD BRING ENTIRE STORM TOTALS INTO
THE 1-3" RANGE THRU MON NGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE N-CNTRL WI WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WL PERSIST SINCE TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND
DELTA-T VALUES TO RESIDE IN THE LWR 20S. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD
SEE TOTALS OF 3-5" COMBINED FROM SUNDAY NGT THRU MON NGT. MIN
TEMPS FOR MON NGT WL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE CNTRL WI...TO THE
UPR TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE.
PREVAILING N-NW WINDS...AIDED BY A WEAK WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATED
SFC TROF...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
N-CNTRL WI. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS NEAR
LAKE MI THAT WOULD DRIFT S-SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL FALL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON TUE WITH READINGS ONLY FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE
N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 20 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS SHOULD CARRY OVER THRU TUE NGT AND
MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED AS THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED
WITH ARCTIC AIR...SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF LETTING UP. A RDG OF HI PRES
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN ON
WED AND START TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW. THIS WOULD
GRADUALLY KEEP THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE MI
BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE
AREA...ALTHO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS TO REMAIN DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL (UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS NORTH...MAINLY
MID TEENS SOUTH).

THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MVOE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED
NGT AND BRING A VERY COLD NGT TO THE REGION. MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPS DOWN FURTHER WITH SUB-ZERO MINS NORTH AND PART OF CNTRL
WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON
THU WITH THE SFC HI IN CONTROL OF NE WI WEATHER. MODELS CONT TO
SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER TO RACE EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER AND DRAG A CDFNT THRU WI ON FRI. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THU EVENING WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FCST TO ARRIVE
LATER THU NGT THAT WOULD CONT INTO FRI. ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHCS
WOULD BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WOULD PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER EASTERN AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND MIXING INCREASE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 060905
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE LAST OF A PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SLIDE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS INDICATE FLURRIES MAINLY
FALLING FROM THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE FOCUS TURNS TO A
STRONGER SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

THE PREVIOUS CLIPPERS THE LAST FEW DAYS WERE ALWAYS FOLLOWED WITH
A CLEARING TREND...HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER WISCONSIN INTO
MINNESOTA IN A REGION OF WAA AHEAD OF SLOWLY EVOLVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY
GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

PCPN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THE ONSET WITH THE ONGOING WAA
TONIGHT DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRENDING
TOWARD A MIX PCPN TYPE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA ON SUNDAY SUGGESTS A MIX OF ZR-/S- BUT FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND WOULD SUPPORT A R-/S-.

WARM START THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORM
LEVELS TODAY...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THEN
MUCH ABOVE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF STG UPR RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM
AND DEEP UPR TROFFING OVER E-CNTRL NOAM TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN A BIT FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTS TO BE THE
MOVEMENT OF A STG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPR LOW
THAT LW IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY EARLY
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL WI.

SNOW CHCS TO INCREASE ACROSS NE WI SUNDAY NGT AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS E-SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT AND A
NEARLY CLOSED UPR LOW. WHILE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONE-HALF INCH NEAR LAKE MI TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OVER N-CNTRL WI...THIS MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON AREA ROADWAYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 20S ERN WI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO MON...MAINLY DUE TO A
STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WI TO RESIDE
ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO FALL OVER THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATIONS
AT AN INCH OR LESS. THIS FRESH SNOW...COUPLED WITH INCREASING N-NW
WINDS WL TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE SNOW AROUND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH REDUCED VSBYS. ONSET OF CAA WL TEMPER
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE ON MON DESPITE THE MILD START TO THE
DAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LWR TO MID 20S
N-CNTRL...BUT LWR 30S FOR E-CNTRL WI.

LIGHT SNOW...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SNOW SHWRS...SHOULD LINGER THRU
MON NGT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH MOST AREAS UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH AT BEST. THIS WOULD BRING ENTIRE STORM TOTALS INTO
THE 1-3" RANGE THRU MON NGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE N-CNTRL WI WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WL PERSIST SINCE TRAJS ARE FAVORABLE AND
DELTA-T VALUES TO RESIDE IN THE LWR 20S. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY COULD
SEE TOTALS OF 3-5" COMBINED FROM SUNDAY NGT THRU MON NGT. MIN
TEMPS FOR MON NGT WL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE CNTRL WI...TO THE
UPR TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE.
PREVAILING N-NW WINDS...AIDED BY A WEAK WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATED
SFC TROF...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO IMPACT
N-CNTRL WI. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHWRS NEAR
LAKE MI THAT WOULD DRIFT S-SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WL FALL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON TUE WITH READINGS ONLY FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE
N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 20 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS SHOULD CARRY OVER THRU TUE NGT AND
MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED AS THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED
WITH ARCTIC AIR...SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF LETTING UP. A RDG OF HI PRES
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN ON
WED AND START TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TOWARD THE W-NW. THIS WOULD
GRADUALLY KEEP THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE MI
BORDER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE
AREA...ALTHO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS TO REMAIN DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL (UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS NORTH...MAINLY
MID TEENS SOUTH).

THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MVOE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED
NGT AND BRING A VERY COLD NGT TO THE REGION. MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPS DOWN FURTHER WITH SUB-ZERO MINS NORTH AND PART OF CNTRL
WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON
THU WITH THE SFC HI IN CONTROL OF NE WI WEATHER. MODELS CONT TO
SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER TO RACE EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER AND DRAG A CDFNT THRU WI ON FRI. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THU EVENING WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FCST TO ARRIVE
LATER THU NGT THAT WOULD CONT INTO FRI. ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHCS
WOULD BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WOULD PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VSBYS CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER
TO GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
KEEP BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL THE TAF SITES PER THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 060459
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VSBYS CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER
TO GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
KEEP BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL THE TAF SITES PER THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 060459
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VSBYS CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER
TO GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
KEEP BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL THE TAF SITES PER THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 060459
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VSBYS CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER
TO GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
KEEP BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL THE TAF SITES PER THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 052303
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
503 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKS OVER THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER
TO GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
KEEP BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL THE TAF SITES PER THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 052303
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
503 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKS OVER THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER
TO GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
KEEP BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL THE TAF SITES PER THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 052303
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
503 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKS OVER THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER
TO GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
KEEP BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL THE TAF SITES PER THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





000
FXUS63 KGRB 052043
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER TO
GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND KEEP
BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......BERSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 052043
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER TO
GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND KEEP
BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......BERSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 052043
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TO DEAL WITH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE A UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR HUDSON BAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CLIPPERS...THIS ONE IS QUICK MOVING AND LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER
THE FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN OUR AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING RESIDES
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN WI. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING...THINK MANY SPOTS WILL
SEE A FEW FLAKES TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CAPPED THEM AT 30 AS CHANCES
LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE A HUNDREDTH OF LIQUID SEEMS LOW.
HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HAVE 0.01-0.02" OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HARD TO GO WITH
NO ACCUMULATION SO WILL KEEP A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST TO COVER ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THE TROUGH/CLIPPER MOVES EAST...PARTIAL CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUD IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOME CLEARING
MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WI SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A WARM FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN STEADY OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD
CRASH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS FROM WAUTOMA TO
SHAWANO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.  A SLOWING CLIPPER ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE CHANGE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE SREF...WHICH
MITIGATES THE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WILL SUFFICE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBO OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND A WARM SOUTH
WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.  THE CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...BUT ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  IF PRECIP DOES MOVE INTO THE
EAST...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...SO COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME...SO
ANY LINGERING MIX ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY.
PRECIP WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL.  LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS WILL
LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO MAY FALL. STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN PULLING
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOW BELTS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SOME MODIFICATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY WHEN POTENTIALLY THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER TO
GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND KEEP
BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......BERSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 051743
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A QUIET BUT PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH
INCLUDE THIS MORNINGS DEPARTING WEAK CLIPPER AND ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER FOR TONIGHT. NOT MUCH PCPN EXPECTED WITH THESE 2 SYSTEMS SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER END CHC POPS OR NON MEASURABLE FLURRIES.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND AFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. CLEARING TREND AGAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING BEFORE DAYBREAK
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH TIME FOR CRASHING TEMPS OVER THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. AS FAR AS DAYTIME HIGHS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
PRODUCE TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL...AND EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY AND PERHAPS EVEN
FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS APPEAR TOO WESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT
MENTION FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN
NOAM UPR RDG AND E-CNTRL NOAM UPR TROF THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS A BIT LATE NEXT WEEK. MAIN FCST
FOCUS TO BE ON THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT IS
FCST TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MON NGT TIME
FRAME. TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU MON...THEN FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR TUE THRU THU.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TAKING THIS CLIPPER E-SE TOWARD SE
MANITOBA OR NW MN BY 12Z SUNDAY. SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIPPER WL INCREASE ISEN LIFT OVER WI AND PERHAPS BRING A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NRN WI IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DO NOT BUY THE GEM THAT RACES PCPN THRU MOST OF THE FCST
AREA SAT NGT AS IT WL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE.
PREFER TO JUST THICKEN UP THE CLOUDS BUT KEEP CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI DRY
THRU THE NGT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LWR 20 NORTH...MID 20S SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES AMONG THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW
HEADED INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NAM/GFS TAKING A MORE SE TRACK
COMPARED TO A E-SE TRACK ON THE GEM/ECMWF. THIS DIFFERENCE MAY NOT
MATTER AS A CDFNT IS FCST TO PUSH THRU MOST OF WI AND PROVIDE ENUF
LIFT TO BRING A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
OVER FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP JUST ENUF TO
HAVE A LITTLE RAIN MIX WITH THE SNOW. THE MILD CONDITIONS WOULD
LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WITH NRN WI RECEIVING NEAR ONE
INCH...WHILE SRN SECTIONS ONLY GET A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NGT INTO MON...WHILE THE UPR TROF DEEPENS OVER E-CNTRL
NOAM. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND VARIOUS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE WITHIN THE UPR TROF WL CONT TO BRING
SNOW CHCS TO NE WI. MOST OF THE SNOW APPEARS TO BE OF THE LIGHT
VARIETY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW SUNDAY
NGT AND UNDER AN INCH ON MON. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE N-CNTRL WI
WHERE THE WINDS WL BECOME NORTHERLY AND AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION...LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM SUPERIOR. ANOTHER THING
TO WATCH ON MON WL BE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WOULD
ALLOW BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO OCCUR. ONSET OF CAA WL ONLY
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S CNTRL WI...UPR 20S TO
LWR 30S DESPITE ANOTHER MILD START TO THE DAY.

THIS PESKY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALL
THE WAY INTO TUE BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING FAR ENUF TO THE EAST TO
ALLOW THE SNOW CHCS TO DIMINISH. MAIN CONCERN FOR MON NGT/TUE WL
BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT FOR N-CNTRL WI AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE...DELTA-T VALUES RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 20S AND THE
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. A NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE WL
BE FELT ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS NRN/CNTRL WI...
AROUND 20 DEGS E-CNTRL WI. ADD IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS AND WIND CHILLS
WL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWR CHCS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO WED AS THE
REGION IS LOCKED UNDER A COLD NW FLOW ALOFT. A RDG OF HI PRES IS
FCST TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST BY WED AND
MAY ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NGT THRU WED
AWAY FROM N-CNTRL WI. IF SOME CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS TUE NGT
COULD FALL BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS ON
WED ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT THU AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BE HEADED TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER SHOULD SEND MAX
TEMPS THU TO AROUND 20 DEGS NORTH...LWR 20S SOUTH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER TO
GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND KEEP
BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......BERSCH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 051743
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A QUIET BUT PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH
INCLUDE THIS MORNINGS DEPARTING WEAK CLIPPER AND ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER FOR TONIGHT. NOT MUCH PCPN EXPECTED WITH THESE 2 SYSTEMS SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER END CHC POPS OR NON MEASURABLE FLURRIES.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND AFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. CLEARING TREND AGAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING BEFORE DAYBREAK
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH TIME FOR CRASHING TEMPS OVER THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. AS FAR AS DAYTIME HIGHS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
PRODUCE TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL...AND EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY AND PERHAPS EVEN
FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS APPEAR TOO WESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT
MENTION FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN
NOAM UPR RDG AND E-CNTRL NOAM UPR TROF THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS A BIT LATE NEXT WEEK. MAIN FCST
FOCUS TO BE ON THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT IS
FCST TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MON NGT TIME
FRAME. TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU MON...THEN FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR TUE THRU THU.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TAKING THIS CLIPPER E-SE TOWARD SE
MANITOBA OR NW MN BY 12Z SUNDAY. SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIPPER WL INCREASE ISEN LIFT OVER WI AND PERHAPS BRING A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NRN WI IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DO NOT BUY THE GEM THAT RACES PCPN THRU MOST OF THE FCST
AREA SAT NGT AS IT WL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE.
PREFER TO JUST THICKEN UP THE CLOUDS BUT KEEP CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI DRY
THRU THE NGT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LWR 20 NORTH...MID 20S SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES AMONG THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW
HEADED INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NAM/GFS TAKING A MORE SE TRACK
COMPARED TO A E-SE TRACK ON THE GEM/ECMWF. THIS DIFFERENCE MAY NOT
MATTER AS A CDFNT IS FCST TO PUSH THRU MOST OF WI AND PROVIDE ENUF
LIFT TO BRING A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
OVER FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP JUST ENUF TO
HAVE A LITTLE RAIN MIX WITH THE SNOW. THE MILD CONDITIONS WOULD
LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WITH NRN WI RECEIVING NEAR ONE
INCH...WHILE SRN SECTIONS ONLY GET A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NGT INTO MON...WHILE THE UPR TROF DEEPENS OVER E-CNTRL
NOAM. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND VARIOUS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE WITHIN THE UPR TROF WL CONT TO BRING
SNOW CHCS TO NE WI. MOST OF THE SNOW APPEARS TO BE OF THE LIGHT
VARIETY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW SUNDAY
NGT AND UNDER AN INCH ON MON. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE N-CNTRL WI
WHERE THE WINDS WL BECOME NORTHERLY AND AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION...LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM SUPERIOR. ANOTHER THING
TO WATCH ON MON WL BE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WOULD
ALLOW BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO OCCUR. ONSET OF CAA WL ONLY
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S CNTRL WI...UPR 20S TO
LWR 30S DESPITE ANOTHER MILD START TO THE DAY.

THIS PESKY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALL
THE WAY INTO TUE BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING FAR ENUF TO THE EAST TO
ALLOW THE SNOW CHCS TO DIMINISH. MAIN CONCERN FOR MON NGT/TUE WL
BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT FOR N-CNTRL WI AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE...DELTA-T VALUES RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 20S AND THE
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. A NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE WL
BE FELT ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS NRN/CNTRL WI...
AROUND 20 DEGS E-CNTRL WI. ADD IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS AND WIND CHILLS
WL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWR CHCS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO WED AS THE
REGION IS LOCKED UNDER A COLD NW FLOW ALOFT. A RDG OF HI PRES IS
FCST TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST BY WED AND
MAY ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NGT THRU WED
AWAY FROM N-CNTRL WI. IF SOME CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS TUE NGT
COULD FALL BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS ON
WED ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT THU AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BE HEADED TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER SHOULD SEND MAX
TEMPS THU TO AROUND 20 DEGS NORTH...LWR 20S SOUTH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER TO
GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND KEEP
BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......BERSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 051743
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A QUIET BUT PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. PARADE OF WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH
INCLUDE THIS MORNINGS DEPARTING WEAK CLIPPER AND ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER FOR TONIGHT. NOT MUCH PCPN EXPECTED WITH THESE 2 SYSTEMS SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER END CHC POPS OR NON MEASURABLE FLURRIES.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND AFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. CLEARING TREND AGAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING BEFORE DAYBREAK
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH TIME FOR CRASHING TEMPS OVER THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. AS FAR AS DAYTIME HIGHS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
PRODUCE TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL...AND EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY AND PERHAPS EVEN
FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS APPEAR TOO WESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT
MENTION FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW CONSISTING OF A WRN
NOAM UPR RDG AND E-CNTRL NOAM UPR TROF THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS A BIT LATE NEXT WEEK. MAIN FCST
FOCUS TO BE ON THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT IS
FCST TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MON NGT TIME
FRAME. TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU MON...THEN FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR TUE THRU THU.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TAKING THIS CLIPPER E-SE TOWARD SE
MANITOBA OR NW MN BY 12Z SUNDAY. SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIPPER WL INCREASE ISEN LIFT OVER WI AND PERHAPS BRING A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NRN WI IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DO NOT BUY THE GEM THAT RACES PCPN THRU MOST OF THE FCST
AREA SAT NGT AS IT WL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE.
PREFER TO JUST THICKEN UP THE CLOUDS BUT KEEP CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI DRY
THRU THE NGT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LWR 20 NORTH...MID 20S SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES AMONG THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW
HEADED INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NAM/GFS TAKING A MORE SE TRACK
COMPARED TO A E-SE TRACK ON THE GEM/ECMWF. THIS DIFFERENCE MAY NOT
MATTER AS A CDFNT IS FCST TO PUSH THRU MOST OF WI AND PROVIDE ENUF
LIFT TO BRING A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
OVER FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP JUST ENUF TO
HAVE A LITTLE RAIN MIX WITH THE SNOW. THE MILD CONDITIONS WOULD
LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WITH NRN WI RECEIVING NEAR ONE
INCH...WHILE SRN SECTIONS ONLY GET A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NGT INTO MON...WHILE THE UPR TROF DEEPENS OVER E-CNTRL
NOAM. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND VARIOUS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE WITHIN THE UPR TROF WL CONT TO BRING
SNOW CHCS TO NE WI. MOST OF THE SNOW APPEARS TO BE OF THE LIGHT
VARIETY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW SUNDAY
NGT AND UNDER AN INCH ON MON. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE N-CNTRL WI
WHERE THE WINDS WL BECOME NORTHERLY AND AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION...LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM SUPERIOR. ANOTHER THING
TO WATCH ON MON WL BE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WOULD
ALLOW BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO OCCUR. ONSET OF CAA WL ONLY
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S CNTRL WI...UPR 20S TO
LWR 30S DESPITE ANOTHER MILD START TO THE DAY.

THIS PESKY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALL
THE WAY INTO TUE BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING FAR ENUF TO THE EAST TO
ALLOW THE SNOW CHCS TO DIMINISH. MAIN CONCERN FOR MON NGT/TUE WL
BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT FOR N-CNTRL WI AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE...DELTA-T VALUES RISE INTO THE LWR TO MID 20S AND THE
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. A NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE WL
BE FELT ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS NRN/CNTRL WI...
AROUND 20 DEGS E-CNTRL WI. ADD IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS AND WIND CHILLS
WL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWR CHCS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO WED AS THE
REGION IS LOCKED UNDER A COLD NW FLOW ALOFT. A RDG OF HI PRES IS
FCST TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST BY WED AND
MAY ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NGT THRU WED
AWAY FROM N-CNTRL WI. IF SOME CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS TUE NGT
COULD FALL BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS ON
WED ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT THU AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BE HEADED TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER SHOULD SEND MAX
TEMPS THU TO AROUND 20 DEGS NORTH...LWR 20S SOUTH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR...UNDER A HALF INCH.

AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE AREA...A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE A DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER TO
GET RID OF. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND KEEP
BROKEN MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......BERSCH





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