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000
FXUS63 KGRB 251137
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
537 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SKY COVERS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PCPN TRENDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BENEATH THE ARCTIC HIGH...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER
MI. PCPN WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS REMAINED SOUTHWEST OF THE
FCST AREA.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES DUE TO THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND NE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES...A DRY DAY IS IN STORE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLEARING TO OCCUR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND THE SFC HIGH DROPS SE
INTO WI. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
BRISK NE WINDS IN THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS WILL DECREASE LATE
IN THE DAY.

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF IN THE EVG BEFORE
WAA CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE WAA...COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF S/W
TROF LATE...SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR FAR
NW COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.

ON MONDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT CLIPPER WENT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
THAN EXPECTED...SUSPECT THAT THE ECMWF`S FARTHER SW TRACK ON
MONDAY MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL TRENDS DO
NOT INSPIRE A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE. WILL GO WITH MID-RANGE
(HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY) POPS...WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. SHALLOWING MOISTURE IN OUR SW COUNTIES LATE IN
THE DAY MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS
IS LESS LIKELY IF THE ECMWF STORM TRACK VERIFIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AT 500MB...EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOT OF ISSUES TO
DEAL WITH WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF CLIPPER SYSTEM AND WILL IT
TAP DRIER TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM.
UNLIKE THE LAST FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE A
PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO
FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND DEVELOP SNOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EVEN IF
CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS...AS INVERTED TROUGHS CAN PRODUCE
MORE SNOW THAN WHAT YOU WOULD THINK ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

IT APPEARS THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD BASED ON 00Z ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTY NE WINDS WERE OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE CLEARING IS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE BROUGHT
THE CLEARING INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 17Z-19Z.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
PARTS OF NC WI TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 251137
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
537 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SKY COVERS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PCPN TRENDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BENEATH THE ARCTIC HIGH...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER
MI. PCPN WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS REMAINED SOUTHWEST OF THE
FCST AREA.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES DUE TO THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND NE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES...A DRY DAY IS IN STORE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLEARING TO OCCUR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND THE SFC HIGH DROPS SE
INTO WI. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
BRISK NE WINDS IN THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS WILL DECREASE LATE
IN THE DAY.

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF IN THE EVG BEFORE
WAA CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE WAA...COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF S/W
TROF LATE...SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR FAR
NW COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.

ON MONDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT CLIPPER WENT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
THAN EXPECTED...SUSPECT THAT THE ECMWF`S FARTHER SW TRACK ON
MONDAY MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL TRENDS DO
NOT INSPIRE A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE. WILL GO WITH MID-RANGE
(HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY) POPS...WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. SHALLOWING MOISTURE IN OUR SW COUNTIES LATE IN
THE DAY MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS
IS LESS LIKELY IF THE ECMWF STORM TRACK VERIFIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AT 500MB...EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOT OF ISSUES TO
DEAL WITH WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF CLIPPER SYSTEM AND WILL IT
TAP DRIER TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM.
UNLIKE THE LAST FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE A
PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO
FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND DEVELOP SNOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EVEN IF
CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS...AS INVERTED TROUGHS CAN PRODUCE
MORE SNOW THAN WHAT YOU WOULD THINK ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

IT APPEARS THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD BASED ON 00Z ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTY NE WINDS WERE OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE CLEARING IS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE BROUGHT
THE CLEARING INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 17Z-19Z.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
PARTS OF NC WI TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 251000
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SKY COVERS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PCPN TRENDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BENEATH THE ARCTIC HIGH...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER
MI. PCPN WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS REMAINED SOUTHWEST OF THE
FCST AREA.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES DUE TO THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND NE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES...A DRY DAY IS IN STORE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLEARING TO OCCUR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND THE SFC HIGH DROPS SE
INTO WI. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
BRISK NE WINDS IN THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS WILL DECREASE LATE
IN THE DAY.

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF IN THE EVG BEFORE
WAA CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE WAA...COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF S/W
TROF LATE...SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR FAR
NW COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.

ON MONDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT CLIPPER WENT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
THAN EXPECTED...SUSPECT THAT THE ECMWF`S FARTHER SW TRACK ON
MONDAY MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL TRENDS DO
NOT INSPIRE A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE. WILL GO WITH MID-RANGE
(HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY) POPS...WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. SHALLOWING MOISTURE IN OUR SW COUNTIES LATE IN
THE DAY MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS
IS LESS LIKELY IF THE ECMWF STORM TRACK VERIFIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AT 500MB...EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOT OF ISSUES TO
DEAL WITH WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF CLIPPER SYSTEM AND WILL IT
TAP DRIER TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM.
UNLIKE THE LAST FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE A
PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO
FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND DEVELOP SNOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EVEN IF
CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS...AS INVERTED TROUGHS CAN PRODUCE
MORE SNOW THAN WHAT YOU WOULD THINK ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

IT APPEARS THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD BASED ON 00Z ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

COLD FRONT WL FINISH DROPPING SWD ACRS AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT
WL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY FLURRIES...BUT A FEW SHSN POSSIBLE S OF
AUW AND NEAR MTW. FLOW ACRS LAKES MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR WL KEEP MVFR
CIGS IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...BUT INCOMING AIR MASS IS VERY DRY...SO
STILL EXPECT CLDS TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 251000
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SKY COVERS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PCPN TRENDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BENEATH THE ARCTIC HIGH...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER
MI. PCPN WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS REMAINED SOUTHWEST OF THE
FCST AREA.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES DUE TO THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND NE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES...A DRY DAY IS IN STORE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLEARING TO OCCUR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND THE SFC HIGH DROPS SE
INTO WI. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
BRISK NE WINDS IN THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS WILL DECREASE LATE
IN THE DAY.

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF IN THE EVG BEFORE
WAA CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE WAA...COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF S/W
TROF LATE...SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR FAR
NW COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.

ON MONDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT CLIPPER WENT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
THAN EXPECTED...SUSPECT THAT THE ECMWF`S FARTHER SW TRACK ON
MONDAY MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL TRENDS DO
NOT INSPIRE A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE. WILL GO WITH MID-RANGE
(HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY) POPS...WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. SHALLOWING MOISTURE IN OUR SW COUNTIES LATE IN
THE DAY MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS
IS LESS LIKELY IF THE ECMWF STORM TRACK VERIFIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AT 500MB...EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOT OF ISSUES TO
DEAL WITH WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF CLIPPER SYSTEM AND WILL IT
TAP DRIER TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM.
UNLIKE THE LAST FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE A
PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO
FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND DEVELOP SNOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EVEN IF
CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS...AS INVERTED TROUGHS CAN PRODUCE
MORE SNOW THAN WHAT YOU WOULD THINK ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

IT APPEARS THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD BASED ON 00Z ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

COLD FRONT WL FINISH DROPPING SWD ACRS AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT
WL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY FLURRIES...BUT A FEW SHSN POSSIBLE S OF
AUW AND NEAR MTW. FLOW ACRS LAKES MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR WL KEEP MVFR
CIGS IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...BUT INCOMING AIR MASS IS VERY DRY...SO
STILL EXPECT CLDS TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 250439
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SOUTHWARD
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT REACHING THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THIS FRONT IS A VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS AS EVIDENT
BY TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO OVER ONTARIO.
THE FRONT IS MAINLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER WEST...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A DECENT SWATH OF
SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH DAKOTA.  SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE
FRONT AND FROM THE CLIPPER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A CLIPPER TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PERHAPS
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATING BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX
VALLEY BY MID-EVENING.  GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.  AS A RESULT...KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THERE.  STILL ANTICIPATING A GLANCING BLOW FROM
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF
MESOMODELS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL MISS THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM WISC RAPIDS TO WAUTOMA COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER FROM WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD BE DEPARTING
QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  MEANWHILE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE (DEWPOINTS OVER ONTARIO ARE BELOW 0F).  EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE UNSTABLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...EXPECT THIS DRY AIR TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AS LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS BECOME RETREAT CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES.  THINK ITS
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.  TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR LESS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ONE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PHASE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW INCHES DESPITE
MEAGER MOISTURE. VERY COLD AIR LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBZERO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IF GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

COLD FRONT WL FINISH DROPPING SWD ACRS AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT
WL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY FLURRIES...BUT A FEW SHSN POSSIBLE S OF
AUW AND NEAR MTW. FLOW ACRS LAKES MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR WL KEEP MVFR
CIGS IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...BUT INCOMING AIR MASS IS VERY DRY...SO
STILL EXPECT CLDS TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 242313
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
513 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SOUTHWARD
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT REACHING THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THIS FRONT IS A VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS AS EVIDENT
BY TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO OVER ONTARIO.
THE FRONT IS MAINLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER WEST...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A DECENT SWATH OF
SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH DAKOTA.  SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE
FRONT AND FROM THE CLIPPER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A CLIPPER TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PERHAPS
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATING BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX
VALLEY BY MID-EVENING.  GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.  AS A RESULT...KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THERE.  STILL ANTICIPATING A GLANCING BLOW FROM
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF
MESOMODELS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL MISS THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM WISC RAPIDS TO WAUTOMA COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER FROM WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD BE DEPARTING
QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  MEANWHILE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE (DEWPOINTS OVER ONTARIO ARE BELOW 0F).  EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE UNSTABLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...EXPECT THIS DRY AIR TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AS LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS BECOME RETREAT CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES.  THINK ITS
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.  TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR LESS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ONE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PHASE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW INCHES DESPITE
MEAGER MOISTURE. VERY COLD AIR LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBZERO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IF GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

COLD FRONT WL DROP SWD ACRS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME SHSN AND FLURRIES...AND MVFR CIGS. FLOW
ACRS LAKES MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR WL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR A
WHILE...BUT INCOMING AIR MASS IS VERY DRY...SO EXPECT CLDS TO
DISSIPATE TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 242313
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
513 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SOUTHWARD
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT REACHING THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THIS FRONT IS A VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS AS EVIDENT
BY TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO OVER ONTARIO.
THE FRONT IS MAINLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER WEST...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A DECENT SWATH OF
SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH DAKOTA.  SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE
FRONT AND FROM THE CLIPPER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A CLIPPER TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PERHAPS
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATING BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX
VALLEY BY MID-EVENING.  GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.  AS A RESULT...KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THERE.  STILL ANTICIPATING A GLANCING BLOW FROM
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF
MESOMODELS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL MISS THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM WISC RAPIDS TO WAUTOMA COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER FROM WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD BE DEPARTING
QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  MEANWHILE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE (DEWPOINTS OVER ONTARIO ARE BELOW 0F).  EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE UNSTABLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...EXPECT THIS DRY AIR TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AS LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS BECOME RETREAT CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES.  THINK ITS
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.  TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR LESS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ONE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PHASE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW INCHES DESPITE
MEAGER MOISTURE. VERY COLD AIR LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBZERO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IF GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

COLD FRONT WL DROP SWD ACRS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME SHSN AND FLURRIES...AND MVFR CIGS. FLOW
ACRS LAKES MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR WL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR A
WHILE...BUT INCOMING AIR MASS IS VERY DRY...SO EXPECT CLDS TO
DISSIPATE TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 242051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
251 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SOUTHWARD
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT REACHING THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THIS FRONT IS A VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS AS EVIDENT
BY TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO OVER ONTARIO.
THE FRONT IS MAINLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER WEST...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A DECENT SWATH OF
SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH DAKOTA.  SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE
FRONT AND FROM THE CLIPPER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A CLIPPER TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PERHAPS
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATING BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX
VALLEY BY MID-EVENING.  GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.  AS A RESULT...KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THERE.  STILL ANTICIPATING A GLANCING BLOW FROM
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF
MESOMODELS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL MISS THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM WISC RAPIDS TO WAUTOMA COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER FROM WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD BE DEPARTING
QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  MEANWHILE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE (DEWPOINTS OVER ONTARIO ARE BELOW 0F).  EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE UNSTABLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...EXPECT THIS DRY AIR TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AS LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS BECOME RETREAT CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES.  THINK ITS
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.  TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR LESS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ONE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PHASE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW INCHES DESPITE
MEAGER MOISTURE. VERY COLD AIR LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBZERO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IF GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS MORNING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXCEPT FOR THOSE
PATCHY IFR CIGS THAT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND CIGS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
AFTER IT PASSES. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MFI-OSH.  ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY PULL
OUT BY AROUND 12Z.  DRY ARCTIC AIR COULD LEAD TO SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.



MPC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 242051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
251 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SOUTHWARD
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT REACHING THE U.P. BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THIS FRONT IS A VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS AS EVIDENT
BY TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO OVER ONTARIO.
THE FRONT IS MAINLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER WEST...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A DECENT SWATH OF
SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH DAKOTA.  SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE
FRONT AND FROM THE CLIPPER ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A CLIPPER TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PERHAPS
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATING BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE FOX
VALLEY BY MID-EVENING.  GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.  AS A RESULT...KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THERE.  STILL ANTICIPATING A GLANCING BLOW FROM
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF
MESOMODELS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL MISS THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM WISC RAPIDS TO WAUTOMA COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER FROM WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD BE DEPARTING
QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  MEANWHILE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE (DEWPOINTS OVER ONTARIO ARE BELOW 0F).  EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE UNSTABLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...EXPECT THIS DRY AIR TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AS LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS BECOME RETREAT CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES.  THINK ITS
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.  TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN INCH OR LESS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ONE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PHASE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW INCHES DESPITE
MEAGER MOISTURE. VERY COLD AIR LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBZERO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IF GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS MORNING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXCEPT FOR THOSE
PATCHY IFR CIGS THAT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND CIGS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
AFTER IT PASSES. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MFI-OSH.  ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY PULL
OUT BY AROUND 12Z.  DRY ARCTIC AIR COULD LEAD TO SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.



MPC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 241715
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRATUS COVERED THE REGION...AND WAS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MILD READINGS IN THE 30 TO 35
RANGE WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WAS DROPPING SOUTH
TOWARD WI. A WEAK S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND THE WSTRN
U.P. AND A JET STREAK WAS APPROACHING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG REGION...
BUT THESE FEATURES WERE MAINLY PRODUCING FLURRIES.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO NORTHERN WI BY MIDDAY...
THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WI BY EVG. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH
THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET STREAK...SHOULD PRODUCE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER FAR NC WI...AND FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MILD HIGHS IN THE 30S
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SOME COOLING WILL BE NOTED OVER
NC/NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
MFI-OSH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. MIN TEMPS ARE A
TOUGH CALL TONIGHT. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT A HUGE DROPOFF. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE...BUT IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS OVER NE WI...SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE.

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAY. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A MORE AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TREND. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE-EFFECT OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NE FLOW...BUT VERY DRY AIR AT 850 MB SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. A FEW FLURRIES ARE PSBL...BUT
WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 500MB MEAN FLOW AS WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WHILE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND
WITH...THE FIRST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY...SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND (JAN 31/FEB 1).

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THINK DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING DESPITE LIGHT FLOW OFF THE LAKE DUE TO LACK OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE BELOW 850MB OVERNIGHT...THUS
THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE. NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT LIKE A FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST TRACK. WITH THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS...SYSTEM STARTS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT...AND THEN
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT THE SYSTEM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST.

THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE WARM AIR TO WORK WITH...THUS
ADDED A CHANCE OF SLEET ALONG WITH SNOW. LATEST ECMWF MODEL WOULD
SUGGEST COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS MORNING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXCEPT FOR THOSE
PATCHY IFR CIGS THAT SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND CIGS WILL RETURN TO MVFR
AFTER IT PASSES. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MFI-OSH.  ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY PULL
OUT BY AROUND 12Z.  DRY ARCTIC AIR COULD LEAD TO SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.



MPC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 241157
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRATUS COVERED THE REGION...AND WAS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MILD READINGS IN THE 30 TO 35
RANGE WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WAS DROPPING SOUTH
TOWARD WI. A WEAK S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND THE WSTRN
U.P. AND A JET STREAK WAS APPROACHING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG REGION...
BUT THESE FEATURES WERE MAINLY PRODUCING FLURRIES.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO NORTHERN WI BY MIDDAY...
THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WI BY EVG. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH
THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET STREAK...SHOULD PRODUCE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER FAR NC WI...AND FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MILD HIGHS IN THE 30S
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SOME COOLING WILL BE NOTED OVER
NC/NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
MFI-OSH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. MIN TEMPS ARE A
TOUGH CALL TONIGHT. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT A HUGE DROPOFF. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE...BUT IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS OVER NE WI...SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE.

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAY. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A MORE AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TREND. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE-EFFECT OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NE FLOW...BUT VERY DRY AIR AT 850 MB SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. A FEW FLURRIES ARE PSBL...BUT
WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 500MB MEAN FLOW AS WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WHILE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND
WITH...THE FIRST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY...SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND (JAN 31/FEB 1).

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THINK DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING DESPITE LIGHT FLOW OFF THE LAKE DUE TO LACK OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE BELOW 850MB OVERNIGHT...THUS
THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE. NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT LIKE A FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST TRACK. WITH THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS...SYSTEM STARTS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT...AND THEN
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT THE SYSTEM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST.

THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE WARM AIR TO WORK WITH...THUS
ADDED A CHANCE OF SLEET ALONG WITH SNOW. LATEST ECMWF MODEL WOULD
SUGGEST COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VARIETY OF CIG HEIGHTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT MOST PLACES WERE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOW
CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD
OF VFR CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR AFTER IT PASSES. THE FRONT...
COMBINED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MFI-OSH.

GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 241157
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRATUS COVERED THE REGION...AND WAS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MILD READINGS IN THE 30 TO 35
RANGE WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WAS DROPPING SOUTH
TOWARD WI. A WEAK S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND THE WSTRN
U.P. AND A JET STREAK WAS APPROACHING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG REGION...
BUT THESE FEATURES WERE MAINLY PRODUCING FLURRIES.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO NORTHERN WI BY MIDDAY...
THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WI BY EVG. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH
THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET STREAK...SHOULD PRODUCE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER FAR NC WI...AND FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MILD HIGHS IN THE 30S
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SOME COOLING WILL BE NOTED OVER
NC/NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
MFI-OSH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. MIN TEMPS ARE A
TOUGH CALL TONIGHT. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT A HUGE DROPOFF. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE...BUT IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS OVER NE WI...SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE.

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAY. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A MORE AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TREND. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE-EFFECT OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NE FLOW...BUT VERY DRY AIR AT 850 MB SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. A FEW FLURRIES ARE PSBL...BUT
WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 500MB MEAN FLOW AS WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WHILE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND
WITH...THE FIRST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY...SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND (JAN 31/FEB 1).

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THINK DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING DESPITE LIGHT FLOW OFF THE LAKE DUE TO LACK OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE BELOW 850MB OVERNIGHT...THUS
THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE. NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT LIKE A FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST TRACK. WITH THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS...SYSTEM STARTS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT...AND THEN
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT THE SYSTEM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST.

THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE WARM AIR TO WORK WITH...THUS
ADDED A CHANCE OF SLEET ALONG WITH SNOW. LATEST ECMWF MODEL WOULD
SUGGEST COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VARIETY OF CIG HEIGHTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT MOST PLACES WERE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOW
CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD
OF VFR CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR AFTER IT PASSES. THE FRONT...
COMBINED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MFI-OSH.

GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 241018
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
418 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRATUS COVERED THE REGION...AND WAS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MILD READINGS IN THE 30 TO 35
RANGE WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WAS DROPPING SOUTH
TOWARD WI. A WEAK S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND THE WSTRN
U.P. AND A JET STREAK WAS APPROACHING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG REGION...
BUT THESE FEATURES WERE MAINLY PRODUCING FLURRIES.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO NORTHERN WI BY MIDDAY...
THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WI BY EVG. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH
THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET STREAK...SHOULD PRODUCE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER FAR NC WI...AND FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MILD HIGHS IN THE 30S
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SOME COOLING WILL BE NOTED OVER
NC/NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
MFI-OSH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. MIN TEMPS ARE A
TOUGH CALL TONIGHT. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT A HUGE DROPOFF. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE...BUT IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS OVER NE WI...SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE.

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAY. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A MORE AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TREND. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE-EFFECT OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NE FLOW...BUT VERY DRY AIR AT 850 MB SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. A FEW FLURRIES ARE PSBL...BUT
WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 500MB MEAN FLOW AS WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WHILE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND
WITH...THE FIRST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY...SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND (JAN 31/FEB 1).

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THINK DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING DESPITE LIGHT FLOW OFF THE LAKE DUE TO LACK OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE BELOW 850MB OVERNIGHT...THUS
THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE. NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT LIKE A FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST TRACK. WITH THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS...SYSTEM STARTS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT...AND THEN
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT THE SYSTEM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST.

THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE WARM AIR TO WORK WITH...THUS
ADDED A CHANCE OF SLEET ALONG WITH SNOW. LATEST ECMWF MODEL WOULD
SUGGEST COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS MAY NOT BE AS SOLID/PERSISTENT AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. WL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREAK IN LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT...SO WL ADD TO THE TAFS. SFC OBS SUGGEST A BAND OF S- WL
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT SWD ACRS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 241018
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
418 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

STRATUS COVERED THE REGION...AND WAS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MILD READINGS IN THE 30 TO 35
RANGE WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WAS DROPPING SOUTH
TOWARD WI. A WEAK S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND THE WSTRN
U.P. AND A JET STREAK WAS APPROACHING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG REGION...
BUT THESE FEATURES WERE MAINLY PRODUCING FLURRIES.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO NORTHERN WI BY MIDDAY...
THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WI BY EVG. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH
THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET STREAK...SHOULD PRODUCE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER FAR NC WI...AND FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MILD HIGHS IN THE 30S
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SOME COOLING WILL BE NOTED OVER
NC/NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
MFI-OSH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. MIN TEMPS ARE A
TOUGH CALL TONIGHT. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT A HUGE DROPOFF. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE...BUT IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS OVER NE WI...SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE.

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAY. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A MORE AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TREND. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE-EFFECT OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NE FLOW...BUT VERY DRY AIR AT 850 MB SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. A FEW FLURRIES ARE PSBL...BUT
WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 500MB MEAN FLOW AS WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WHILE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND
WITH...THE FIRST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY...SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND (JAN 31/FEB 1).

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THINK DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING DESPITE LIGHT FLOW OFF THE LAKE DUE TO LACK OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE BELOW 850MB OVERNIGHT...THUS
THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE. NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT LIKE A FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST TRACK. WITH THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS...SYSTEM STARTS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT...AND THEN
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT THE SYSTEM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST.

THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE WARM AIR TO WORK WITH...THUS
ADDED A CHANCE OF SLEET ALONG WITH SNOW. LATEST ECMWF MODEL WOULD
SUGGEST COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS MAY NOT BE AS SOLID/PERSISTENT AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. WL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREAK IN LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT...SO WL ADD TO THE TAFS. SFC OBS SUGGEST A BAND OF S- WL
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT SWD ACRS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240440
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1040 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA.  AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FRONT COMBINED WILL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0
C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP.  SURFACE OBS AND A
FEW REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE PTYPE IS MAINLY SNOW...OCCASIONALLY
MIXED WITH SLEET.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP BAND IS
FIGHTING DRY AIR...BUT PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM MEDFORD TO
MARINETTE.  THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.  EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY SNOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS TO 2SM IN SPOTS.  BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF CLEARING
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE FAR WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA.  THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS
DIVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL REACH N-C WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
PRECIP AND SKY TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING.  LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
7PM WHEN THINK ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS STRATUS.  BUT ONCE IT MOVES IN...THINK OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SNOWBELT.
BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW BELOW
850MB SO AM SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR.  BUT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO LEFT IN THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY...SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE U.P. BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE HARD TO REMOVE ESPECIALLY
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN WITH NW WINDS IN PLACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST IS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WITH
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE 12Z GFS
ONLY HAD SMALL QPF IN PARTS OF MARATHON COUNTY AND WOOD COUNTY
06Z-12Z SUNDAY...OTHER MODELS GENERALLY HAD QPF ACROSS MOST OR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT CLOSE TO WHAT SURROUNDING OFFICES HAD
ALONG OUR BORDERS AND WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAD FOR POPS
AND QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALLER CHANGE TO FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS THAN WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH EVEN IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WOULD SUGGEST.

SNOW TOTALS ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WENT
NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. ONCE IT DEPARTS THERE
COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
IS RATHER POOR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS MAY NOT BE AS SOLID/PERSISTENT AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. WL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREAK IN LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT...SO WL ADD TO THE TAFS. SFC OBS SUGGEST A BAND OF S- WL
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT SWD ACRS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI










000
FXUS63 KGRB 240440
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1040 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA.  AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FRONT COMBINED WILL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0
C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP.  SURFACE OBS AND A
FEW REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE PTYPE IS MAINLY SNOW...OCCASIONALLY
MIXED WITH SLEET.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP BAND IS
FIGHTING DRY AIR...BUT PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM MEDFORD TO
MARINETTE.  THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.  EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY SNOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS TO 2SM IN SPOTS.  BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF CLEARING
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE FAR WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA.  THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS
DIVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL REACH N-C WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
PRECIP AND SKY TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING.  LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
7PM WHEN THINK ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS STRATUS.  BUT ONCE IT MOVES IN...THINK OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SNOWBELT.
BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW BELOW
850MB SO AM SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR.  BUT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO LEFT IN THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY...SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE U.P. BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE HARD TO REMOVE ESPECIALLY
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN WITH NW WINDS IN PLACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST IS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WITH
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE 12Z GFS
ONLY HAD SMALL QPF IN PARTS OF MARATHON COUNTY AND WOOD COUNTY
06Z-12Z SUNDAY...OTHER MODELS GENERALLY HAD QPF ACROSS MOST OR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT CLOSE TO WHAT SURROUNDING OFFICES HAD
ALONG OUR BORDERS AND WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAD FOR POPS
AND QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALLER CHANGE TO FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS THAN WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH EVEN IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WOULD SUGGEST.

SNOW TOTALS ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WENT
NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. ONCE IT DEPARTS THERE
COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
IS RATHER POOR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS MAY NOT BE AS SOLID/PERSISTENT AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. WL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREAK IN LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT...SO WL ADD TO THE TAFS. SFC OBS SUGGEST A BAND OF S- WL
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT SWD ACRS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 232257
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
457 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA.  AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FRONT COMBINED WILL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0
C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP.  SURFACE OBS AND A
FEW REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE PTYPE IS MAINLY SNOW...OCCASIONALLY
MIXED WITH SLEET.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP BAND IS
FIGHTING DRY AIR...BUT PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM MEDFORD TO
MARINETTE.  THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.  EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY SNOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS TO 2SM IN SPOTS.  BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF CLEARING
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE FAR WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA.  THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS
DIVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL REACH N-C WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
PRECIP AND SKY TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING.  LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
7PM WHEN THINK ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS STRATUS.  BUT ONCE IT MOVES IN...THINK OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SNOWBELT.
BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW BELOW
850MB SO AM SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR.  BUT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO LEFT IN THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY...SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE U.P. BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE HARD TO REMOVE ESPECIALLY
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN WITH NW WINDS IN PLACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST IS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WITH
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE 12Z GFS
ONLY HAD SMALL QPF IN PARTS OF MARATHON COUNTY AND WOOD COUNTY
06Z-12Z SUNDAY...OTHER MODELS GENERALLY HAD QPF ACROSS MOST OR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT CLOSE TO WHAT SURROUNDING OFFICES HAD
ALONG OUR BORDERS AND WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAD FOR POPS
AND QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALLER CHANGE TO FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS THAN WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH EVEN IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WOULD SUGGEST.

SNOW TOTALS ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WENT
NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. ONCE IT DEPARTS THERE
COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
IS RATHER POOR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 455 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO REAL CHG TO FCST REASONING FM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. MVFR CIGS
STILL WIDESPREAD BACK TO THE NW...AND EXPECT THESE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING. ONCE IN PLACE...THEY WL PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 232051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
251 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA.  AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FRONT COMBINED WILL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0
C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP.  SURFACE OBS AND A
FEW REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE PTYPE IS MAINLY SNOW...OCCASIONALLY
MIXED WITH SLEET.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP BAND IS
FIGHTING DRY AIR...BUT PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM MEDFORD TO
MARINETTE.  THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.  EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY SNOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS TO 2SM IN SPOTS.  BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF CLEARING
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE FAR WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA.  THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS
DIVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL REACH N-C WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
PRECIP AND SKY TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING.  LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
7PM WHEN THINK ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS STRATUS.  BUT ONCE IT MOVES IN...THINK OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SNOWBELT.
BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW BELOW
850MB SO AM SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR.  BUT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO LEFT IN THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY...SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE U.P. BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE HARD TO REMOVE ESPECIALLY
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN WITH NW WINDS IN PLACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST IS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WITH
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE 12Z GFS
ONLY HAD SMALL QPF IN PARTS OF MARATHON COUNTY AND WOOD COUNTY
06Z-12Z SUNDAY...OTHER MODELS GENERALLY HAD QPF ACROSS MOST OR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT CLOSE TO WHAT SURROUNDING OFFICES HAD
ALONG OUR BORDERS AND WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAD FOR POPS
AND QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALLER CHANGE TO FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS THAN WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH EVEN IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WOULD SUGGEST.

SNOW TOTALS ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WENT
NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. ONCE IT DEPARTS THERE
COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
IS RATHER POOR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  VSBYS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THE
MOMENT.  ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE TAFS SITES BY
00Z...THEN MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING.  SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW SOON THIS
STRATUS WILL ARRIVE AS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STRATUS WHICH DOES NOT QUITE MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.  WILL INCLUDE A SHORT PERIOD OF SCT CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE MVFR STRATUS ARRIVES.  ONCE IT DOES...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 232051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
251 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA.  AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FRONT COMBINED WILL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0
C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP.  SURFACE OBS AND A
FEW REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE PTYPE IS MAINLY SNOW...OCCASIONALLY
MIXED WITH SLEET.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP BAND IS
FIGHTING DRY AIR...BUT PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM MEDFORD TO
MARINETTE.  THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.  EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY SNOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP
VSBYS TO 2SM IN SPOTS.  BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF CLEARING
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE FAR WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA.  THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS
DIVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL REACH N-C WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
PRECIP AND SKY TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING.  LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
7PM WHEN THINK ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS STRATUS.  BUT ONCE IT MOVES IN...THINK OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SNOWBELT.
BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW BELOW
850MB SO AM SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR.  BUT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO LEFT IN THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY...SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE U.P. BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE HARD TO REMOVE ESPECIALLY
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN WITH NW WINDS IN PLACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST IS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WITH
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE 12Z GFS
ONLY HAD SMALL QPF IN PARTS OF MARATHON COUNTY AND WOOD COUNTY
06Z-12Z SUNDAY...OTHER MODELS GENERALLY HAD QPF ACROSS MOST OR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT CLOSE TO WHAT SURROUNDING OFFICES HAD
ALONG OUR BORDERS AND WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAD FOR POPS
AND QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALLER CHANGE TO FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS THAN WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH EVEN IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WOULD SUGGEST.

SNOW TOTALS ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WENT
NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. ONCE IT DEPARTS THERE
COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
IS RATHER POOR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  VSBYS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THE
MOMENT.  ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE TAFS SITES BY
00Z...THEN MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING.  SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW SOON THIS
STRATUS WILL ARRIVE AS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STRATUS WHICH DOES NOT QUITE MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.  WILL INCLUDE A SHORT PERIOD OF SCT CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE MVFR STRATUS ARRIVES.  ONCE IT DOES...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 231727
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1127 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

TOUGH FCST TODAY...DUE TO A DRY WEDGE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...
AND A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT (CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI) THAT
WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A WINTRY MIX OF
PCPN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR. AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION SHOULD
OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A S/W TROF AND THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET
IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEEPER DRY LAYER AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SLOWER PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TRENDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE PCPN ARRIVAL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE MAINLY
SNOW/SLEET...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM LAYER ONLY 0 TO +2 C.
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD ERODE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING...SO PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS REMAINING PCPN TAPERS OFF. NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF FZDZ IN FAR
NC WI OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH...
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

ON SATURDAY...PATCHY FZDZ OR FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE IN FAR
NC WI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SAME OLD STORY AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN BUILD AGAIN AND RETROGRADE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF
JAN 31/FEB 1.

CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY STILL PROBLEMATIC IN
WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD OCCUR. ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND WRF MODEL. GFS MODEL HAS COME
IN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF QPF SOLUTION...THUS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS
OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORTED MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION. ALSO...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE MAY REALLY LIMIT TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF WISCONSIN. THESE TRENDS WERE REFLECTED IN THE
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER...IF WRF/CANADIAN ARE CORRECT...POPS/SNOWFALL TOTALS
WOULD NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT SOME POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OR WINDY AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ON THIS DAY. THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE BY
THE WEEKEND OF JAN 31/FEB 1.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  VSBYS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THE
MOMENT.  ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE TAFS SITES BY
00Z...THEN MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING.  SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW SOON THIS
STRATUS WILL ARRIVE AS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STRATUS WHICH DOES NOT QUITE MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.  WILL INCLUDE A SHORT PERIOD OF SCT CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE MVFR STRATUS ARRIVES.  ONCE IT DOES...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 231727
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1127 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

TOUGH FCST TODAY...DUE TO A DRY WEDGE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...
AND A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT (CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI) THAT
WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A WINTRY MIX OF
PCPN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR. AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION SHOULD
OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A S/W TROF AND THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET
IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEEPER DRY LAYER AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SLOWER PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TRENDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE PCPN ARRIVAL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE MAINLY
SNOW/SLEET...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM LAYER ONLY 0 TO +2 C.
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD ERODE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING...SO PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS REMAINING PCPN TAPERS OFF. NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF FZDZ IN FAR
NC WI OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH...
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

ON SATURDAY...PATCHY FZDZ OR FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE IN FAR
NC WI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SAME OLD STORY AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN BUILD AGAIN AND RETROGRADE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF
JAN 31/FEB 1.

CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY STILL PROBLEMATIC IN
WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD OCCUR. ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND WRF MODEL. GFS MODEL HAS COME
IN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF QPF SOLUTION...THUS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS
OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORTED MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION. ALSO...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE MAY REALLY LIMIT TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF WISCONSIN. THESE TRENDS WERE REFLECTED IN THE
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER...IF WRF/CANADIAN ARE CORRECT...POPS/SNOWFALL TOTALS
WOULD NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT SOME POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OR WINDY AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ON THIS DAY. THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE BY
THE WEEKEND OF JAN 31/FEB 1.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  VSBYS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THE
MOMENT.  ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE TAFS SITES BY
00Z...THEN MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING.  SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW SOON THIS
STRATUS WILL ARRIVE AS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STRATUS WHICH DOES NOT QUITE MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.  WILL INCLUDE A SHORT PERIOD OF SCT CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE MVFR STRATUS ARRIVES.  ONCE IT DOES...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 231153
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
553 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

TOUGH FCST TODAY...DUE TO A DRY WEDGE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...
AND A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT (CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI) THAT
WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A WINTRY MIX OF
PCPN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR. AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION SHOULD
OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A S/W TROF AND THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET
IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEEPER DRY LAYER AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SLOWER PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TRENDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE PCPN ARRIVAL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE MAINLY
SNOW/SLEET...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM LAYER ONLY 0 TO +2 C.
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD ERODE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING...SO PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS REMAINING PCPN TAPERS OFF. NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF FZDZ IN FAR
NC WI OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH...
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

ON SATURDAY...PATCHY FZDZ OR FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE IN FAR
NC WI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SAME OLD STORY AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN BUILD AGAIN AND RETROGRADE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF
JAN 31/FEB 1.

CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY STILL PROBLEMATIC IN
WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD OCCUR. ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND WRF MODEL. GFS MODEL HAS COME
IN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF QPF SOLUTION...THUS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS
OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORTED MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION. ALSO...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE MAY REALLY LIMIT TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF WISCONSIN. THESE TRENDS WERE REFLECTED IN THE
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER...IF WRF/CANADIAN ARE CORRECT...POPS/SNOWFALL TOTALS
WOULD NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT SOME POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OR WINDY AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ON THIS DAY. THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE BY
THE WEEKEND OF JAN 31/FEB 1.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...MAINLY DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...A WARM
LAYER ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIXED PCPN TODAY. LLWS WILL
ALSO POSE A CONCERN FOR PILOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

LOW CLOUDS HAD SCATTERED OUT OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT STILL COVERED MOST OF C/EC WI. REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR BREAK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN WI
DURING THE MORNING...THEN SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WHEN THE PCPN IS OCCURRING...CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION IN ITS
WAKE.

WSW WINDS AROUND 40 KTS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SFC TODAY...
LEADING TO LLWS. THE WINDS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LLWS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 231153
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
553 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

TOUGH FCST TODAY...DUE TO A DRY WEDGE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...
AND A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT (CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI) THAT
WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A WINTRY MIX OF
PCPN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR. AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION SHOULD
OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A S/W TROF AND THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET
IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEEPER DRY LAYER AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SLOWER PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TRENDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE PCPN ARRIVAL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE MAINLY
SNOW/SLEET...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM LAYER ONLY 0 TO +2 C.
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD ERODE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING...SO PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS REMAINING PCPN TAPERS OFF. NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF FZDZ IN FAR
NC WI OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH...
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

ON SATURDAY...PATCHY FZDZ OR FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE IN FAR
NC WI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SAME OLD STORY AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN BUILD AGAIN AND RETROGRADE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF
JAN 31/FEB 1.

CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY STILL PROBLEMATIC IN
WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD OCCUR. ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND WRF MODEL. GFS MODEL HAS COME
IN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF QPF SOLUTION...THUS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS
OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORTED MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION. ALSO...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE MAY REALLY LIMIT TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF WISCONSIN. THESE TRENDS WERE REFLECTED IN THE
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER...IF WRF/CANADIAN ARE CORRECT...POPS/SNOWFALL TOTALS
WOULD NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT SOME POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OR WINDY AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ON THIS DAY. THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE BY
THE WEEKEND OF JAN 31/FEB 1.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...MAINLY DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...A WARM
LAYER ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIXED PCPN TODAY. LLWS WILL
ALSO POSE A CONCERN FOR PILOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

LOW CLOUDS HAD SCATTERED OUT OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT STILL COVERED MOST OF C/EC WI. REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR BREAK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN WI
DURING THE MORNING...THEN SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WHEN THE PCPN IS OCCURRING...CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION IN ITS
WAKE.

WSW WINDS AROUND 40 KTS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SFC TODAY...
LEADING TO LLWS. THE WINDS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LLWS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 231012
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
412 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

TOUGH FCST TODAY...DUE TO A DRY WEDGE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...
AND A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT (CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI) THAT
WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A WINTRY MIX OF
PCPN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR. AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION SHOULD
OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A S/W TROF AND THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET
IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEEPER DRY LAYER AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SLOWER PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TRENDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE PCPN ARRIVAL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE MAINLY
SNOW/SLEET...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM LAYER ONLY 0 TO +2 C.
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD ERODE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING...SO PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS REMAINING PCPN TAPERS OFF. NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF FZDZ IN FAR
NC WI OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH...
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

ON SATURDAY...PATCHY FZDZ OR FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE IN FAR
NC WI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SAME OLD STORY AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN BUILD AGAIN AND RETROGRADE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF
JAN 31/FEB 1.

CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY STILL PROBLEMATIC IN
WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD OCCUR. ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND WRF MODEL. GFS MODEL HAS COME
IN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF QPF SOLUTION...THUS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS
OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORTED MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION. ALSO...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE MAY REALLY LIMIT TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF WISCONSIN. THESE TRENDS WERE REFLECTED IN THE
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER...IF WRF/CANADIAN ARE CORRECT...POPS/SNOWFALL TOTALS
WOULD NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT SOME POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OR WINDY AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ON THIS DAY. THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE BY
THE WEEKEND OF JAN 31/FEB 1.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR CIGS PROGRESSING ACROSS ERN WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...WHILE
THE BACK EDGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO WRN WI. EXPECT TO SEE
THIS BACK EDGE REACH CNTRL WI AROUND 15Z AND ERN WI AROUND 17Z.
ANY VFR CONDITIONS WL BE BRIEF AS A CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEP
ACROSS NE WI ON FRI. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW PUSH
ACROSS NRN WI MID TO LATE MORNING AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI IN THE
EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. CIGS ARE FCST TO RESIDE IN
THE IFR/LOW-END MVFR THRU THE PCPN EVENT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE
MVFR CIG CATEGORY INTO FRI NGT AS CAA TAKES OVER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 231012
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
412 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

TOUGH FCST TODAY...DUE TO A DRY WEDGE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...
AND A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT (CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI) THAT
WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A WINTRY MIX OF
PCPN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR. AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION SHOULD
OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A S/W TROF AND THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET
IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEEPER DRY LAYER AND WEAKER FORCING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SLOWER PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TRENDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE PCPN ARRIVAL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE MAINLY
SNOW/SLEET...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM LAYER ONLY 0 TO +2 C.
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD ERODE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING...SO PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS REMAINING PCPN TAPERS OFF. NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF FZDZ IN FAR
NC WI OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH...
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

ON SATURDAY...PATCHY FZDZ OR FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE IN FAR
NC WI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SAME OLD STORY AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THEN BUILD AGAIN AND RETROGRADE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OF
JAN 31/FEB 1.

CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY STILL PROBLEMATIC IN
WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD OCCUR. ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND WRF MODEL. GFS MODEL HAS COME
IN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF QPF SOLUTION...THUS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS
OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORTED MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION. ALSO...EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE MAY REALLY LIMIT TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF WISCONSIN. THESE TRENDS WERE REFLECTED IN THE
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER...IF WRF/CANADIAN ARE CORRECT...POPS/SNOWFALL TOTALS
WOULD NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT SOME POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OR WINDY AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ON THIS DAY. THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE BY
THE WEEKEND OF JAN 31/FEB 1.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR CIGS PROGRESSING ACROSS ERN WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...WHILE
THE BACK EDGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO WRN WI. EXPECT TO SEE
THIS BACK EDGE REACH CNTRL WI AROUND 15Z AND ERN WI AROUND 17Z.
ANY VFR CONDITIONS WL BE BRIEF AS A CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEP
ACROSS NE WI ON FRI. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW PUSH
ACROSS NRN WI MID TO LATE MORNING AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI IN THE
EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. CIGS ARE FCST TO RESIDE IN
THE IFR/LOW-END MVFR THRU THE PCPN EVENT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE
MVFR CIG CATEGORY INTO FRI NGT AS CAA TAKES OVER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230418
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1018 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL ALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
WERE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST TOWARD MORNING...WHICH BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH
SURROUNDING FORECAST GRIDS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT INDICATED A DRY LAYER AT RHINELANDER
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR AND AMOUNT OF LIFT. A DEEP DRY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN ICE CRYSTAL SUBLIMATION BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE
MOIST AND COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE
THAT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW ALONG WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS HAD QPF IN THE NORTH BUT WIND DIRECTION AND DELTA T VALUES DO
NOT SEEM FAVORABLE. EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW FOR CENTRAL...FAR NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO...HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW THERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISC ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL DELIVER A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT THAT TIME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN NORTHERN WISC WHERE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES EAST AND CONSOLIDATES WITH A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A SECOND
CANADIAN LOW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND BRING A
DECENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SNOW
WILL END BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR CIGS PROGRESSING ACROSS ERN WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...WHILE
THE BACK EDGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO WRN WI. EXPECT TO SEE
THIS BACK EDGE REACH CNTRL WI AROUND 15Z AND ERN WI AROUND 17Z.
ANY VFR CONDITIONS WL BE BRIEF AS A CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEP
ACROSS NE WI ON FRI. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW PUSH
ACROSS NRN WI MID TO LATE MORNING AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI IN THE
EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. CIGS ARE FCST TO RESIDE IN
THE IFR/LOW-END MVFR THRU THE PCPN EVENT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE
MVFR CIG CATEGORY INTO FRI NGT AS CAA TAKES OVER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......AK









000
FXUS63 KGRB 230418
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1018 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL ALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
WERE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST TOWARD MORNING...WHICH BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH
SURROUNDING FORECAST GRIDS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT INDICATED A DRY LAYER AT RHINELANDER
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR AND AMOUNT OF LIFT. A DEEP DRY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN ICE CRYSTAL SUBLIMATION BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE
MOIST AND COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE
THAT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW ALONG WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS HAD QPF IN THE NORTH BUT WIND DIRECTION AND DELTA T VALUES DO
NOT SEEM FAVORABLE. EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW FOR CENTRAL...FAR NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO...HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW THERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISC ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL DELIVER A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT THAT TIME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN NORTHERN WISC WHERE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES EAST AND CONSOLIDATES WITH A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A SECOND
CANADIAN LOW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND BRING A
DECENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SNOW
WILL END BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR CIGS PROGRESSING ACROSS ERN WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...WHILE
THE BACK EDGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO WRN WI. EXPECT TO SEE
THIS BACK EDGE REACH CNTRL WI AROUND 15Z AND ERN WI AROUND 17Z.
ANY VFR CONDITIONS WL BE BRIEF AS A CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEP
ACROSS NE WI ON FRI. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW PUSH
ACROSS NRN WI MID TO LATE MORNING AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI IN THE
EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. CIGS ARE FCST TO RESIDE IN
THE IFR/LOW-END MVFR THRU THE PCPN EVENT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE
MVFR CIG CATEGORY INTO FRI NGT AS CAA TAKES OVER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 222328
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
528 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL ALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
WERE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST TOWARD MORNING...WHICH BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH
SURROUNDING FORECAST GRIDS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT INDICATED A DRY LAYER AT RHINELANDER
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR AND AMOUNT OF LIFT. A DEEP DRY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN ICE CRYSTAL SUBLIMATION BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE
MOIST AND COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE
THAT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW ALONG WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS HAD QPF IN THE NORTH BUT WIND DIRECTION AND DELTA T VALUES DO
NOT SEEM FAVORABLE. EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW FOR CENTRAL...FAR NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO...HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW THERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISC ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL DELIVER A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT THAT TIME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN NORTHERN WISC WHERE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES EAST AND CONSOLIDATES WITH A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A SECOND
CANADIAN LOW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND BRING A
DECENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SNOW
WILL END BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE WI WL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS A
LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SW WI GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST
OF WI LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE NGT.
THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY SCT FRI MORNING...HOWEVER THE
APPROACH OF A CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT WL BRING MVFR CIGS
BACK TO NE WI BY FRI AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE WL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE
IN THE DAY TO EITHER SOME FLURRIES OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ANOTHER FACTOR FOR AVIATION TO BE THE INCREASING WINDS TNGT INTO
FRI. HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF MENTIONING LLWS IN ALL TAF SITES
FOR TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 222328
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
528 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL ALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
WERE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST TOWARD MORNING...WHICH BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH
SURROUNDING FORECAST GRIDS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT INDICATED A DRY LAYER AT RHINELANDER
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR AND AMOUNT OF LIFT. A DEEP DRY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN ICE CRYSTAL SUBLIMATION BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE
MOIST AND COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE
THAT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW ALONG WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS HAD QPF IN THE NORTH BUT WIND DIRECTION AND DELTA T VALUES DO
NOT SEEM FAVORABLE. EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW FOR CENTRAL...FAR NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO...HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW THERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISC ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL DELIVER A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT THAT TIME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN NORTHERN WISC WHERE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES EAST AND CONSOLIDATES WITH A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A SECOND
CANADIAN LOW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND BRING A
DECENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SNOW
WILL END BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE WI WL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS A
LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SW WI GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST
OF WI LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE NGT.
THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY SCT FRI MORNING...HOWEVER THE
APPROACH OF A CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT WL BRING MVFR CIGS
BACK TO NE WI BY FRI AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE WL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE
IN THE DAY TO EITHER SOME FLURRIES OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ANOTHER FACTOR FOR AVIATION TO BE THE INCREASING WINDS TNGT INTO
FRI. HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF MENTIONING LLWS IN ALL TAF SITES
FOR TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 222124
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL ALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
WERE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST TOWARD MORNING...WHICH BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH
SURROUNDING FORECAST GRIDS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT INDICATED A DRY LAYER AT RHINELANDER
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR AND AMOUNT OF LIFT. A DEEP DRY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN ICE CRYSTAL SUBLIMATION BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE
MOIST AND COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE
THAT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW ALONG WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS HAD QPF IN THE NORTH BUT WIND DIRECTION AND DELTA T VALUES DO
NOT SEEM FAVORABLE. EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW FOR CENTRAL...FAR NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO...HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW THERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISC ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL DELIVER A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT THAT TIME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN NORTHERN WISC WHERE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES EAST AND CONSOLIDATES WITH A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A SECOND
CANADIAN LOW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND BRING A
DECENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SNOW
WILL END BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BASED ON
UPSTREAM INVERSIONS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT WAS QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER THERE WOULD BE MUCH/ANY CLEARING TODAY...BUT MOST OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WAS VFR WITH NO CIGS BY 17Z. SOME OF THE
MODELS KEPT THE CLOUDS WHILE OTHERS HAD SKIES BECOMING CLR OR SCT.
CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT
TYPE IS A BIT OF A PROBLEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT RHI FROM THE 09Z
SREF/12Z NAM/12Z GFS ALL SHOWED A DRY LAYER AT LEAST 2000FT DEEP
THAT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MELTING OF ANY ICE CRYSTALS THAT FORM
ABOVE IT. MODELS SHOWED SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT WITH A SUBFREEZING MOIST LAYER
OFF THE SURFACE THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH WEAK
LIFT. SINCE THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT ON THIS...HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED SNOW THERE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS SNOW IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CIGS
AND VSBY SHOULD BE MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR IN PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS.

WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WINDS AROUND 1500-2000FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AND THERE IS SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 222124
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL ALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
WERE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST TOWARD MORNING...WHICH BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH
SURROUNDING FORECAST GRIDS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT INDICATED A DRY LAYER AT RHINELANDER
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR AND AMOUNT OF LIFT. A DEEP DRY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN ICE CRYSTAL SUBLIMATION BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE
MOIST AND COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE
THAT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW ALONG WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS HAD QPF IN THE NORTH BUT WIND DIRECTION AND DELTA T VALUES DO
NOT SEEM FAVORABLE. EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW FOR CENTRAL...FAR NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO...HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW THERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISC ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL DELIVER A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT THAT TIME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN NORTHERN WISC WHERE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES EAST AND CONSOLIDATES WITH A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A SECOND
CANADIAN LOW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND BRING A
DECENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SNOW
WILL END BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BASED ON
UPSTREAM INVERSIONS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT WAS QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER THERE WOULD BE MUCH/ANY CLEARING TODAY...BUT MOST OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WAS VFR WITH NO CIGS BY 17Z. SOME OF THE
MODELS KEPT THE CLOUDS WHILE OTHERS HAD SKIES BECOMING CLR OR SCT.
CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT
TYPE IS A BIT OF A PROBLEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT RHI FROM THE 09Z
SREF/12Z NAM/12Z GFS ALL SHOWED A DRY LAYER AT LEAST 2000FT DEEP
THAT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MELTING OF ANY ICE CRYSTALS THAT FORM
ABOVE IT. MODELS SHOWED SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT WITH A SUBFREEZING MOIST LAYER
OFF THE SURFACE THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH WEAK
LIFT. SINCE THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT ON THIS...HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED SNOW THERE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS SNOW IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CIGS
AND VSBY SHOULD BE MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR IN PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS.

WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WINDS AROUND 1500-2000FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AND THERE IS SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 221804
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PCPN TRENDS AND
TYPE ON FRIDAY...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SFC RIDGE WAS SITUATED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWWD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PARTIAL CLEARING WAS NOTED NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS IN MN.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL DRYING OVER NORTHERN WI
THIS MORNING...AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE H8
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS EAST. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL LARGE
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO WIDESPREAD CLEARING SEEMS
UNLIKELY. BASED ON SATL AND COORD WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
GONE WITH A MORE GRADUAL CLEARING TREND DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED A FEW DEGREES IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OCCURS.

WAA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO NORTHERN WI DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S TONIGHT.

AN UPPER TROF...RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE TRENDS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER NC/NE WI. MODELS ALSO SHOW
A WEAK WARM LAYER (0 TO +2 C)...WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED AND A BIT
WARMER ON THE NAM MODEL. MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPES WOULD APPEAR TO BE
SNOW/SLEET AT THIS TIME. WARM LAYER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FZRA...THROUGH FZDZ COULD DEVELOP AS THE MOISTURE
LAYER SHALLOWS OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO MENTION ANY RAIN...EVEN WITH TEMPS IN THE 35-37 RANGE IN
NE/EC WI...AS LOW-LEVEL WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND EAST COAST TROUGH
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS
FAR ENOUGH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND SPLIT FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR
BOTTLED UP EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WHILE EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS WHICH SHOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES STILL
PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND
MOISTURE CONCERNS AT MID LEVELS. WENT WITH THE PREVAILING TWO PRECIP
TYPES FRIDAY EVENING. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO COLD AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS
OF LATE...SO COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS FRIDAY EVENING. DID COORDINATE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT AND MAYBE POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL PROBLEMATIC AS ALL
THE MODELS EXCEPT ECMWF ARE MUCH FURTHER NORTH. FOR EXAMPLE...GFS
WOULD GIVE NORTHERN WISCONSIN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO SNOW. PERUSAL OF WPC SNOW GRAPHICS AND
TRENDS OF THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS...TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN/GFS/WRF SOLUTIONS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO PINPOINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF TONIGHT WOULD
SUGGEST A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR NEXT FRIDAY (JAN 30) INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BASED ON
UPSTREAM INVERSIONS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT WAS QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER THERE WOULD BE MUCH/ANY CLEARING TODAY...BUT MOST OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WAS VFR WITH NO CIGS BY 17Z. SOME OF THE
MODELS KEPT THE CLOUDS WHILE OTHERS HAD SKIES BECOMING CLR OR SCT.
CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT
TYPE IS A BIT OF A PROBLEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT RHI FROM THE 09Z
SREF/12Z NAM/12Z GFS ALL SHOWED A DRY LAYER AT LEAST 2000FT DEEP
THAT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MELTING OF ANY ICE CRYSTALS THAT FORM
ABOVE IT. MODELS SHOWED SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT WITH A SUBFREEZING MOIST LAYER
OFF THE SURFACE THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH WEAK
LIFT. SINCE THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT ON THIS...HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED SNOW THERE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS SNOW IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CIGS
AND VSBY SHOULD BE MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR IN PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS.

WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WINDS AROUND 1500-2000FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AND THERE IS SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 221804
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PCPN TRENDS AND
TYPE ON FRIDAY...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SFC RIDGE WAS SITUATED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWWD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PARTIAL CLEARING WAS NOTED NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS IN MN.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL DRYING OVER NORTHERN WI
THIS MORNING...AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE H8
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS EAST. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL LARGE
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO WIDESPREAD CLEARING SEEMS
UNLIKELY. BASED ON SATL AND COORD WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
GONE WITH A MORE GRADUAL CLEARING TREND DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED A FEW DEGREES IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OCCURS.

WAA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO NORTHERN WI DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S TONIGHT.

AN UPPER TROF...RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE TRENDS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER NC/NE WI. MODELS ALSO SHOW
A WEAK WARM LAYER (0 TO +2 C)...WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED AND A BIT
WARMER ON THE NAM MODEL. MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPES WOULD APPEAR TO BE
SNOW/SLEET AT THIS TIME. WARM LAYER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FZRA...THROUGH FZDZ COULD DEVELOP AS THE MOISTURE
LAYER SHALLOWS OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO MENTION ANY RAIN...EVEN WITH TEMPS IN THE 35-37 RANGE IN
NE/EC WI...AS LOW-LEVEL WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND EAST COAST TROUGH
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS
FAR ENOUGH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND SPLIT FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR
BOTTLED UP EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WHILE EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS WHICH SHOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES STILL
PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND
MOISTURE CONCERNS AT MID LEVELS. WENT WITH THE PREVAILING TWO PRECIP
TYPES FRIDAY EVENING. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO COLD AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS
OF LATE...SO COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS FRIDAY EVENING. DID COORDINATE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT AND MAYBE POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL PROBLEMATIC AS ALL
THE MODELS EXCEPT ECMWF ARE MUCH FURTHER NORTH. FOR EXAMPLE...GFS
WOULD GIVE NORTHERN WISCONSIN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO SNOW. PERUSAL OF WPC SNOW GRAPHICS AND
TRENDS OF THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS...TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN/GFS/WRF SOLUTIONS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO PINPOINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF TONIGHT WOULD
SUGGEST A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR NEXT FRIDAY (JAN 30) INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BASED ON
UPSTREAM INVERSIONS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT WAS QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER THERE WOULD BE MUCH/ANY CLEARING TODAY...BUT MOST OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WAS VFR WITH NO CIGS BY 17Z. SOME OF THE
MODELS KEPT THE CLOUDS WHILE OTHERS HAD SKIES BECOMING CLR OR SCT.
CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT
TYPE IS A BIT OF A PROBLEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT RHI FROM THE 09Z
SREF/12Z NAM/12Z GFS ALL SHOWED A DRY LAYER AT LEAST 2000FT DEEP
THAT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MELTING OF ANY ICE CRYSTALS THAT FORM
ABOVE IT. MODELS SHOWED SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT WITH A SUBFREEZING MOIST LAYER
OFF THE SURFACE THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH WEAK
LIFT. SINCE THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT ON THIS...HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED SNOW THERE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS SNOW IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CIGS
AND VSBY SHOULD BE MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR IN PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS.

WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WINDS AROUND 1500-2000FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AND THERE IS SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







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