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000
FXUS63 KGRB 061104
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
504 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH WARMER
AIR RETURNING OVER THE COLD SNOW PACK.  FIRST FOR TODAY...ONGOING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE MAX
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS MAINLY SLOWLY EXPANDING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA APPROACHING THE AREA. AT
PRESENT RATE THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND EASTERN SECTIONS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING EASTWARD LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH...CLEARING NOTED AND ANTICIPATE A DECREASE CLOUDS TREND
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND PASSING
CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CLIPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH.

THIS CLIPPER SLIDES QUICKLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...INVERSION LIKELY TO BE LESS DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...BUT CLOUDS TRENDS MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE TEMPS
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEREBY ALLOWING A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS WL BRING AT LEAST AN EARLY TASTE OF
SPRING TO NE WI AS TEMPS GO FROM BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN
MODEL ISSUES FOCUS ON PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SW CANADA/NW
CONUS REGION AND ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT EWD NEXT WEEK. THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH SYSTEMS AFTER A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT. FOR NOW...THIS PATTERN WL BRING MILDER TEMPS/BELOW
NORMAL PCPN TO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS SHOULD CONT TO THICKEN OVER THE REGION SAT NGT AS THE NEXT
NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SE INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. WHILE THE LEADING
EDGE OF ANY PCPN MAY APPROACH CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO
NORTH...15 TO 20 DEGS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHERE THE BETTER
PCPN CHCS WL OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS BETTER PCPN CHCS FROM
NRN WI NWD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. THE GEM AND
ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET AND MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER...NE
WI ENDS UP BETWEEN THE MAX PCPN AMOUNTS. SINCE EITHER MODEL CAMP
SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...HAVE PLACED CHC POPS FAR NORTH AND ALONG
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE USED IN-BETWEEN.
MAX TEMPS TO BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS/PCPN CHCS...WITH READINGS
ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...MID TO UPR 30S FOR
E-CNTRL WI.

A WEAK SFC RDG IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NGT AND ALLOW SKY CONDITIONS TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENUF WIND THRU THE NGT TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING
TOO FAR WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS NORTH...AROUND 20
DEGS SOUTH. AS THE SFC HI MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MON...WINDS WL GRADUALLY BACK FROM WEST TO SW
AND START TO BRING MILDER AIR MASS INTO WI. 8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 0C AND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.

FCST GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BY TUE AS THE GFS IS NOW
SUGGESTING THAT THE UPR RDG WL NOT BREAK DOWN AS MUCH AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND KEEP SOME SEMBLENCE OF A BROAD UPR TROF
OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW
THIS AND INDICATE THE UPR RDG TO CONT WEAKENING WITH THE MEAN FLOW
TURNING NEAR ZONAL ON TUE. PREFER TO STAY THE COURSE OF THE
MAJORITY SOLUTION HERE AND KEEP THE PACIFIC AIR MASS FLOWING
ACROSS WI. MAX TEMPS FOR TUE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
40S ON AVERAGE WITH A FEW UPR 40S POSSIBLE FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO.

MILD CONDITIONS TO CONT THRU WED ALTHO MODELS REMAIN ON THEIR
INDEPENDENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT FROM
THE NW. THE ECMWF DROPS THE FNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
GEM STILL HAS THE FNT WELL TO OUR NW ACROSS NRN MN. THIS WOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPS ON WED WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH (AWAY FROM LAKE MI). HAVE KEPT
WED DRY FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF THE CDFNT AND A
GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE PRESENT. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO
EXIST OVER NE WI BY NEXT THU AS WINDS TURN TO THE E-NE BEHIND THE
FNT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH A LACK OF ANY SYSTEMS EVIDENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES S OF THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLD DECK WITH MVFR CAT CIGS FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLD FORMATION...AND EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER...WITH
PROBABLY ONLY SCT-BKN CLDS WITH VFR BASES. STILL NO INDICATION OF
LOW CLDS ACRS NE KS/NW MO/SW IA WHICH IS WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING ACCORDING TO THE NAM. SO...WL CONT WITH TAFS LEANING
TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 061104
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
504 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH WARMER
AIR RETURNING OVER THE COLD SNOW PACK.  FIRST FOR TODAY...ONGOING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE MAX
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS MAINLY SLOWLY EXPANDING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA APPROACHING THE AREA. AT
PRESENT RATE THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND EASTERN SECTIONS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING EASTWARD LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH...CLEARING NOTED AND ANTICIPATE A DECREASE CLOUDS TREND
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND PASSING
CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CLIPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH.

THIS CLIPPER SLIDES QUICKLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...INVERSION LIKELY TO BE LESS DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...BUT CLOUDS TRENDS MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE TEMPS
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEREBY ALLOWING A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS WL BRING AT LEAST AN EARLY TASTE OF
SPRING TO NE WI AS TEMPS GO FROM BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN
MODEL ISSUES FOCUS ON PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SW CANADA/NW
CONUS REGION AND ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT EWD NEXT WEEK. THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH SYSTEMS AFTER A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT. FOR NOW...THIS PATTERN WL BRING MILDER TEMPS/BELOW
NORMAL PCPN TO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS SHOULD CONT TO THICKEN OVER THE REGION SAT NGT AS THE NEXT
NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SE INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. WHILE THE LEADING
EDGE OF ANY PCPN MAY APPROACH CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO
NORTH...15 TO 20 DEGS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHERE THE BETTER
PCPN CHCS WL OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS BETTER PCPN CHCS FROM
NRN WI NWD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. THE GEM AND
ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET AND MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER...NE
WI ENDS UP BETWEEN THE MAX PCPN AMOUNTS. SINCE EITHER MODEL CAMP
SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...HAVE PLACED CHC POPS FAR NORTH AND ALONG
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE USED IN-BETWEEN.
MAX TEMPS TO BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS/PCPN CHCS...WITH READINGS
ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...MID TO UPR 30S FOR
E-CNTRL WI.

A WEAK SFC RDG IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NGT AND ALLOW SKY CONDITIONS TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENUF WIND THRU THE NGT TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING
TOO FAR WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS NORTH...AROUND 20
DEGS SOUTH. AS THE SFC HI MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MON...WINDS WL GRADUALLY BACK FROM WEST TO SW
AND START TO BRING MILDER AIR MASS INTO WI. 8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 0C AND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.

FCST GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BY TUE AS THE GFS IS NOW
SUGGESTING THAT THE UPR RDG WL NOT BREAK DOWN AS MUCH AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND KEEP SOME SEMBLENCE OF A BROAD UPR TROF
OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW
THIS AND INDICATE THE UPR RDG TO CONT WEAKENING WITH THE MEAN FLOW
TURNING NEAR ZONAL ON TUE. PREFER TO STAY THE COURSE OF THE
MAJORITY SOLUTION HERE AND KEEP THE PACIFIC AIR MASS FLOWING
ACROSS WI. MAX TEMPS FOR TUE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
40S ON AVERAGE WITH A FEW UPR 40S POSSIBLE FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO.

MILD CONDITIONS TO CONT THRU WED ALTHO MODELS REMAIN ON THEIR
INDEPENDENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT FROM
THE NW. THE ECMWF DROPS THE FNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
GEM STILL HAS THE FNT WELL TO OUR NW ACROSS NRN MN. THIS WOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPS ON WED WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH (AWAY FROM LAKE MI). HAVE KEPT
WED DRY FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF THE CDFNT AND A
GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE PRESENT. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO
EXIST OVER NE WI BY NEXT THU AS WINDS TURN TO THE E-NE BEHIND THE
FNT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH A LACK OF ANY SYSTEMS EVIDENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES S OF THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLD DECK WITH MVFR CAT CIGS FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLD FORMATION...AND EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER...WITH
PROBABLY ONLY SCT-BKN CLDS WITH VFR BASES. STILL NO INDICATION OF
LOW CLDS ACRS NE KS/NW MO/SW IA WHICH IS WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING ACCORDING TO THE NAM. SO...WL CONT WITH TAFS LEANING
TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 060913
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
313 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH WARMER
AIR RETURNING OVER THE COLD SNOW PACK.  FIRST FOR TODAY...ONGOING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE MAX
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS MAINLY SLOWLY EXPANDING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA APPROACHING THE AREA. AT
PRESENT RATE THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND EASTERN SECTIONS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING EASTWARD LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH...CLEARING NOTED AND ANTICIPATE A DECREASE CLOUDS TREND
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND PASSING
CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CLIPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH.

THIS CLIPPER SLIDES QUICKLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...INVERSION LIKELY TO BE LESS DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...BUT CLOUDS TRENDS MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE TEMPS
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEREBY ALLOWING A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS WL BRING AT LEAST AN EARLY TASTE OF
SPRING TO NE WI AS TEMPS GO FROM BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN
MODEL ISSUES FOCUS ON PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SW CANADA/NW
CONUS REGION AND ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT EWD NEXT WEEK. THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH SYSTEMS AFTER A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT. FOR NOW...THIS PATTERN WL BRING MILDER TEMPS/BELOW
NORMAL PCPN TO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS SHOULD CONT TO THICKEN OVER THE REGION SAT NGT AS THE NEXT
NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SE INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. WHILE THE LEADING
EDGE OF ANY PCPN MAY APPROACH CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO
NORTH...15 TO 20 DEGS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHERE THE BETTER
PCPN CHCS WL OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS BETTER PCPN CHCS FROM
NRN WI NWD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. THE GEM AND
ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET AND MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER...NE
WI ENDS UP BETWEEN THE MAX PCPN AMOUNTS. SINCE EITHER MODEL CAMP
SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...HAVE PLACED CHC POPS FAR NORTH AND ALONG
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE USED IN-BETWEEN.
MAX TEMPS TO BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS/PCPN CHCS...WITH READINGS
ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...MID TO UPR 30S FOR
E-CNTRL WI.

A WEAK SFC RDG IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NGT AND ALLOW SKY CONDITIONS TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENUF WIND THRU THE NGT TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING
TOO FAR WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS NORTH...AROUND 20
DEGS SOUTH. AS THE SFC HI MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MON...WINDS WL GRADUALLY BACK FROM WEST TO SW
AND START TO BRING MILDER AIR MASS INTO WI. 8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 0C AND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.

FCST GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BY TUE AS THE GFS IS NOW
SUGGESTING THAT THE UPR RDG WL NOT BREAK DOWN AS MUCH AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND KEEP SOME SEMBLENCE OF A BROAD UPR TROF
OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW
THIS AND INDICATE THE UPR RDG TO CONT WEAKENING WITH THE MEAN FLOW
TURNING NEAR ZONAL ON TUE. PREFER TO STAY THE COURSE OF THE
MAJORITY SOLUTION HERE AND KEEP THE PACIFIC AIR MASS FLOWING
ACROSS WI. MAX TEMPS FOR TUE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
40S ON AVERAGE WITH A FEW UPR 40S POSSIBLE FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO.

MILD CONDITIONS TO CONT THRU WED ALTHO MODELS REMAIN ON THEIR
INDEPENDENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT FROM
THE NW. THE ECMWF DROPS THE FNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
GEM STILL HAS THE FNT WELL TO OUR NW ACROSS NRN MN. THIS WOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPS ON WED WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH (AWAY FROM LAKE MI). HAVE KEPT
WED DRY FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF THE CDFNT AND A
GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE PRESENT. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO
EXIST OVER NE WI BY NEXT THU AS WINDS TURN TO THE E-NE BEHIND THE
FNT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH A LACK OF ANY SYSTEMS EVIDENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES S OF THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLD DECK WITH MVFR CAT CIGS FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLD FORMATION...AND EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER...WITH
PROBABLY ONLY SCT-BKN CLDS WITH VFR BASES. STILL NO INDICATION OF
LOW CLDS ACRS NE KS/NW MO/SW IA WHICH IS WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING ACCORDING TO THE NAM. SO...WL CONT WITH TAFS LEANING
TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 060439
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
REGIME IN PLACE. FOR TONIGHT...BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND INVERSION ALOFT. NEW MET/MAV GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 8
DEGREES COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST. SEEN CASES IN THE FIRST DAY OF
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES FAIL TO REACH
PREVIOUS DAYS FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAD TO
LOWER EVEN MORE. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURING A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RUN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THOUGH UNSETTLED...LIMITATIONS IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
IMPACTS LIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOSES INFLUENCE
OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR WILL HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AND
FORTUNATELY CURRENTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CURRENTLY
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
FROM NW CANADA INTO THE MIDWESTERN US. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING
DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SURFACE
LOW SCRAPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE TO MANAGE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW IN THE NORTH AND FAR NORTHEAST. SNOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS MORE OF A QUESTION. BOTH THE
EURO AND GFS DEVELOP AREAS OF LIFT BOTH NORTH AND WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...LEAVING SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF
COMPENSATING DOWNWARD MOTION. UNSURE IF THIS IS REAL...BUT IT HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES OFF...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FAR NORTH SEEING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

THE QUICK SUCCESSION OF CLIPPERS CONTINUES...WITH THE NEXT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT DIVE
AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO GENERATE BETTER
FORCING WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE JET SETUP (THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS MUCH AS IT APPEARED IN PREVIOUS DAYS) AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT COULD HELP CONTRIBUTE
LIFT. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR ISSUES. ONE IS TIMING - THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE QUICKER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS COMES IN A BIT MORE SLOWLY ON
SUNDAY. THE OTHER QUESTION INVOLVES MOISTURE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
TIME TO RECOVER FOLLOWING THE FIRST CLIPPER...MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE MORE ATTRACTIVE
DYNAMICS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 30S...AND THE
LOCAL WARM BAND FROM WAUTOMA THROUGH SHAWANO HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT
AT THREATENING 40 DEGREES WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE WARMEST AREAS COULD SEE A PARTIAL OR EVEN TOTAL
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL.

BECAUSE OF THE LARGE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER THE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE PRESENTED...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECISE DETAILS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONE MORE CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US BECOMES
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW
BENEATH IT FARTHER UP INTO ONTARIO...ELIMINATING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT IN WISCONSIN. THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED LESS BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.
INSTEAD...WE SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THIS WILL HELP THE WARMUP FROM THE COLD OF FEBRUARY CONTINUE
IN EARNEST. BY MIDWEEK...PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY WELL
REACH THE LOWER 50S.

THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LOW ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING A STRONG
LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT BEYOND THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH A
HALT TO THE WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES S OF THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLD DECK WITH MVFR CAT CIGS FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLD FORMATION...AND EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER...WITH
PROBABLY ONLY SCT-BKN CLDS WITH VFR BASES. STILL NO INDICATION OF
LOW CLDS ACRS NE KS/NW MO/SW IA WHICH IS WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING ACCORDING TO THE NAM. SO...WL CONT WITH TAFS LEANING
TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 052306
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
506 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
REGIME IN PLACE. FOR TONIGHT...BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND INVERSION ALOFT. NEW MET/MAV GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 8
DEGREES COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST. SEEN CASES IN THE FIRST DAY OF
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES FAIL TO REACH
PREVIOUS DAYS FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAD TO
LOWER EVEN MORE. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURING A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RUN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THOUGH UNSETTLED...LIMITATIONS IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
IMPACTS LIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOSES INFLUENCE
OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR WILL HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AND
FORTUNATELY CURRENTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CURRENTLY
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
FROM NW CANADA INTO THE MIDWESTERN US. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING
DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SURFACE
LOW SCRAPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE TO MANAGE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW IN THE NORTH AND FAR NORTHEAST. SNOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS MORE OF A QUESTION. BOTH THE
EURO AND GFS DEVELOP AREAS OF LIFT BOTH NORTH AND WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...LEAVING SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF
COMPENSATING DOWNWARD MOTION. UNSURE IF THIS IS REAL...BUT IT HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES OFF...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FAR NORTH SEEING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

THE QUICK SUCCESSION OF CLIPPERS CONTINUES...WITH THE NEXT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT DIVE
AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO GENERATE BETTER
FORCING WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE JET SETUP (THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS MUCH AS IT APPEARED IN PREVIOUS DAYS) AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT COULD HELP CONTRIBUTE
LIFT. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR ISSUES. ONE IS TIMING - THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE QUICKER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS COMES IN A BIT MORE SLOWLY ON
SUNDAY. THE OTHER QUESTION INVOLVES MOISTURE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
TIME TO RECOVER FOLLOWING THE FIRST CLIPPER...MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE MORE ATTRACTIVE
DYNAMICS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 30S...AND THE
LOCAL WARM BAND FROM WAUTOMA THROUGH SHAWANO HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT
AT THREATENING 40 DEGREES WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE WARMEST AREAS COULD SEE A PARTIAL OR EVEN TOTAL
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL.

BECAUSE OF THE LARGE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER THE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE PRESENTED...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECISE DETAILS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONE MORE CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US BECOMES
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW
BENEATH IT FARTHER UP INTO ONTARIO...ELIMINATING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT IN WISCONSIN. THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED LESS BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.
INSTEAD...WE SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THIS WILL HELP THE WARMUP FROM THE COLD OF FEBRUARY CONTINUE
IN EARNEST. BY MIDWEEK...PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY WELL
REACH THE LOWER 50S.

THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LOW ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING A STRONG
LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT BEYOND THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH A
HALT TO THE WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES S OF THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLD DECK WITH MVFR CAT CIGS FRIDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLD FORMATION...AND EVEN SUGGESTS SOME
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER...WITH PROBABLY
ONLY SCT-BKN CLDS WITH VFR BASES. HARD TO PICK THE CORRECT
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS ASPECT OF THE
FCST IS LOW. BUT THERE AREN/T ANY LOW CLDS IN NE KS RIGHT
NOW...AND GIVEN SFC DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE AOA 25F DEG IN THAT
AREA...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS WELL. SO OPTED TO BACK AWAY FM
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TOMORROW AFTN. JUST KEPT THEM IN FAR N-C WI
DURING THE LATE AFTN...WHERE ECMWF SHOWING LOW-LEVELS CLOSEST TO
SATURATION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI










000
FXUS63 KGRB 052306
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
506 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
REGIME IN PLACE. FOR TONIGHT...BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND INVERSION ALOFT. NEW MET/MAV GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 8
DEGREES COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST. SEEN CASES IN THE FIRST DAY OF
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES FAIL TO REACH
PREVIOUS DAYS FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAD TO
LOWER EVEN MORE. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURING A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RUN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THOUGH UNSETTLED...LIMITATIONS IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
IMPACTS LIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOSES INFLUENCE
OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR WILL HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AND
FORTUNATELY CURRENTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CURRENTLY
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
FROM NW CANADA INTO THE MIDWESTERN US. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING
DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SURFACE
LOW SCRAPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE TO MANAGE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW IN THE NORTH AND FAR NORTHEAST. SNOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS MORE OF A QUESTION. BOTH THE
EURO AND GFS DEVELOP AREAS OF LIFT BOTH NORTH AND WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...LEAVING SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF
COMPENSATING DOWNWARD MOTION. UNSURE IF THIS IS REAL...BUT IT HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES OFF...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FAR NORTH SEEING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

THE QUICK SUCCESSION OF CLIPPERS CONTINUES...WITH THE NEXT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT DIVE
AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO GENERATE BETTER
FORCING WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE JET SETUP (THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS MUCH AS IT APPEARED IN PREVIOUS DAYS) AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT COULD HELP CONTRIBUTE
LIFT. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR ISSUES. ONE IS TIMING - THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE QUICKER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS COMES IN A BIT MORE SLOWLY ON
SUNDAY. THE OTHER QUESTION INVOLVES MOISTURE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
TIME TO RECOVER FOLLOWING THE FIRST CLIPPER...MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE MORE ATTRACTIVE
DYNAMICS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 30S...AND THE
LOCAL WARM BAND FROM WAUTOMA THROUGH SHAWANO HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT
AT THREATENING 40 DEGREES WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE WARMEST AREAS COULD SEE A PARTIAL OR EVEN TOTAL
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL.

BECAUSE OF THE LARGE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER THE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE PRESENTED...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECISE DETAILS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONE MORE CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US BECOMES
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW
BENEATH IT FARTHER UP INTO ONTARIO...ELIMINATING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT IN WISCONSIN. THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED LESS BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.
INSTEAD...WE SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THIS WILL HELP THE WARMUP FROM THE COLD OF FEBRUARY CONTINUE
IN EARNEST. BY MIDWEEK...PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY WELL
REACH THE LOWER 50S.

THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LOW ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING A STRONG
LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT BEYOND THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH A
HALT TO THE WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES S OF THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLD DECK WITH MVFR CAT CIGS FRIDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLD FORMATION...AND EVEN SUGGESTS SOME
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER...WITH PROBABLY
ONLY SCT-BKN CLDS WITH VFR BASES. HARD TO PICK THE CORRECT
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS ASPECT OF THE
FCST IS LOW. BUT THERE AREN/T ANY LOW CLDS IN NE KS RIGHT
NOW...AND GIVEN SFC DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE AOA 25F DEG IN THAT
AREA...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS WELL. SO OPTED TO BACK AWAY FM
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TOMORROW AFTN. JUST KEPT THEM IN FAR N-C WI
DURING THE LATE AFTN...WHERE ECMWF SHOWING LOW-LEVELS CLOSEST TO
SATURATION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 052306
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
506 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
REGIME IN PLACE. FOR TONIGHT...BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND INVERSION ALOFT. NEW MET/MAV GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 8
DEGREES COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST. SEEN CASES IN THE FIRST DAY OF
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES FAIL TO REACH
PREVIOUS DAYS FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAD TO
LOWER EVEN MORE. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURING A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RUN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THOUGH UNSETTLED...LIMITATIONS IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
IMPACTS LIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOSES INFLUENCE
OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR WILL HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AND
FORTUNATELY CURRENTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CURRENTLY
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
FROM NW CANADA INTO THE MIDWESTERN US. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING
DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SURFACE
LOW SCRAPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE TO MANAGE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW IN THE NORTH AND FAR NORTHEAST. SNOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS MORE OF A QUESTION. BOTH THE
EURO AND GFS DEVELOP AREAS OF LIFT BOTH NORTH AND WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...LEAVING SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF
COMPENSATING DOWNWARD MOTION. UNSURE IF THIS IS REAL...BUT IT HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES OFF...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FAR NORTH SEEING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

THE QUICK SUCCESSION OF CLIPPERS CONTINUES...WITH THE NEXT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT DIVE
AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO GENERATE BETTER
FORCING WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE JET SETUP (THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS MUCH AS IT APPEARED IN PREVIOUS DAYS) AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT COULD HELP CONTRIBUTE
LIFT. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR ISSUES. ONE IS TIMING - THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE QUICKER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS COMES IN A BIT MORE SLOWLY ON
SUNDAY. THE OTHER QUESTION INVOLVES MOISTURE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
TIME TO RECOVER FOLLOWING THE FIRST CLIPPER...MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE MORE ATTRACTIVE
DYNAMICS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 30S...AND THE
LOCAL WARM BAND FROM WAUTOMA THROUGH SHAWANO HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT
AT THREATENING 40 DEGREES WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE WARMEST AREAS COULD SEE A PARTIAL OR EVEN TOTAL
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL.

BECAUSE OF THE LARGE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER THE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE PRESENTED...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECISE DETAILS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONE MORE CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US BECOMES
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW
BENEATH IT FARTHER UP INTO ONTARIO...ELIMINATING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT IN WISCONSIN. THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED LESS BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.
INSTEAD...WE SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THIS WILL HELP THE WARMUP FROM THE COLD OF FEBRUARY CONTINUE
IN EARNEST. BY MIDWEEK...PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY WELL
REACH THE LOWER 50S.

THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LOW ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING A STRONG
LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT BEYOND THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH A
HALT TO THE WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES S OF THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLD DECK WITH MVFR CAT CIGS FRIDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLD FORMATION...AND EVEN SUGGESTS SOME
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER...WITH PROBABLY
ONLY SCT-BKN CLDS WITH VFR BASES. HARD TO PICK THE CORRECT
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS ASPECT OF THE
FCST IS LOW. BUT THERE AREN/T ANY LOW CLDS IN NE KS RIGHT
NOW...AND GIVEN SFC DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE AOA 25F DEG IN THAT
AREA...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS WELL. SO OPTED TO BACK AWAY FM
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TOMORROW AFTN. JUST KEPT THEM IN FAR N-C WI
DURING THE LATE AFTN...WHERE ECMWF SHOWING LOW-LEVELS CLOSEST TO
SATURATION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI










000
FXUS63 KGRB 052123
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
323 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
REGIME IN PLACE. FOR TONIGHT...BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND INVERSION ALOFT. NEW MET/MAV GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 8
DEGREES COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST. SEEN CASES IN THE FIRST DAY
OF THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES FAIL TO
REACH PREVIOUS DAYS FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 3
TO 5 DEGREES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAD
TO LOWER EVEN MORE. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURING A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RUN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THOUGH UNSETTLED...LIMITATIONS IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
IMPACTS LIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOSES INFLUENCE
OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR WILL HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AND
FORTUNATELY CURRENTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CURRENTLY
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
FROM NW CANADA INTO THE MIDWESTERN US. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING
DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SURFACE
LOW SCRAPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE TO MANAGE SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AND FAR NORTHEAST. SNOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS MORE OF A QUESTION.
BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DEVELOP AREAS OF LIFT BOTH NORTH AND WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...LEAVING SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IN AN AREA OF
COMPENSATING DOWNWARD MOTION. UNSURE IF THIS IS REAL...BUT IT
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OFF...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST ON
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FAR NORTH SEEING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 30S FOR MOST DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

THE QUICK SUCCESSION OF CLIPPERS CONTINUES...WITH THE NEXT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT DIVE AS
FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO GENERATE BETTER
FORCING WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE JET SETUP (THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS MUCH AS IT APPEARED IN PREVIOUS DAYS) AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT COULD HELP CONTRIBUTE
LIFT. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR ISSUES. ONE IS TIMING - THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE QUICKER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS COMES IN A BIT MORE SLOWLY
ON SUNDAY. THE OTHER QUESTION INVOLVES MOISTURE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
TIME TO RECOVER FOLLOWING THE FIRST CLIPPER...MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE MORE ATTRACTIVE
DYNAMICS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 30S...AND THE
LOCAL WARM BAND FROM WAUTOMA THROUGH SHAWANO HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT
AT THREATENING 40 DEGREES WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE WARMEST AREAS COULD SEE A PARTIAL OR EVEN TOTAL
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL.

BECAUSE OF THE LARGE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER THE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE PRESENTED...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECISE DETAILS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONE MORE CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US BECOMES
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW
BENEATH IT FARTHER UP INTO ONTARIO...ELIMINATING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT IN WISCONSIN. THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED LESS BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.
INSTEAD...WE SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THIS WILL HELP THE WARMUP FROM THE COLD OF FEBRUARY CONTINUE
IN EARNEST. BY MIDWEEK...PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY WELL
REACH THE LOWER 50S.

THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LOW ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING A STRONG
LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT BEYOND THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH A
HALT TO THE WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEST WINDS BACK
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. QUESTIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY IF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP BELOW AN INVERSION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AFTER
15Z ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THIS WILL OCCUR AS MAV
GUIDANCE HAS CIGS ABOVE TWELVE THOUSAND FEET. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP... PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FLURRIES LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 052123
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
323 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
REGIME IN PLACE. FOR TONIGHT...BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND INVERSION ALOFT. NEW MET/MAV GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 8
DEGREES COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST. SEEN CASES IN THE FIRST DAY
OF THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES FAIL TO
REACH PREVIOUS DAYS FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 3
TO 5 DEGREES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAD
TO LOWER EVEN MORE. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURING A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RUN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THOUGH UNSETTLED...LIMITATIONS IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
IMPACTS LIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOSES INFLUENCE
OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR WILL HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AND
FORTUNATELY CURRENTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CURRENTLY
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
FROM NW CANADA INTO THE MIDWESTERN US. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING
DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SURFACE
LOW SCRAPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE TO MANAGE SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AND FAR NORTHEAST. SNOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS MORE OF A QUESTION.
BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DEVELOP AREAS OF LIFT BOTH NORTH AND WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...LEAVING SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IN AN AREA OF
COMPENSATING DOWNWARD MOTION. UNSURE IF THIS IS REAL...BUT IT
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OFF...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST ON
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FAR NORTH SEEING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 30S FOR MOST DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

THE QUICK SUCCESSION OF CLIPPERS CONTINUES...WITH THE NEXT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT DIVE AS
FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO GENERATE BETTER
FORCING WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE JET SETUP (THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS MUCH AS IT APPEARED IN PREVIOUS DAYS) AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT COULD HELP CONTRIBUTE
LIFT. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR ISSUES. ONE IS TIMING - THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE QUICKER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS COMES IN A BIT MORE SLOWLY
ON SUNDAY. THE OTHER QUESTION INVOLVES MOISTURE. WITH LITTLE TO NO
TIME TO RECOVER FOLLOWING THE FIRST CLIPPER...MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE MORE ATTRACTIVE
DYNAMICS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 30S...AND THE
LOCAL WARM BAND FROM WAUTOMA THROUGH SHAWANO HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT
AT THREATENING 40 DEGREES WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE WARMEST AREAS COULD SEE A PARTIAL OR EVEN TOTAL
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL.

BECAUSE OF THE LARGE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER THE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE PRESENTED...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECISE DETAILS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONE MORE CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US BECOMES
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW
BENEATH IT FARTHER UP INTO ONTARIO...ELIMINATING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT IN WISCONSIN. THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED LESS BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.
INSTEAD...WE SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THIS WILL HELP THE WARMUP FROM THE COLD OF FEBRUARY CONTINUE
IN EARNEST. BY MIDWEEK...PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY WELL
REACH THE LOWER 50S.

THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LOW ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING A STRONG
LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT BEYOND THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH A
HALT TO THE WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEST WINDS BACK
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. QUESTIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY IF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP BELOW AN INVERSION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AFTER
15Z ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THIS WILL OCCUR AS MAV
GUIDANCE HAS CIGS ABOVE TWELVE THOUSAND FEET. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP... PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FLURRIES LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 051659
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1059 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEST WINDS BACK
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. QUESTIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY IF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP BELOW AN INVERSION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AFTER
15Z ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THIS WILL OCCUR AS MAV
GUIDANCE HAS CIGS ABOVE TWELVE THOUSAND FEET. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP... PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FLURRIES LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 051659
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1059 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEST WINDS BACK
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. QUESTIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY IF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP BELOW AN INVERSION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AFTER
15Z ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THIS WILL OCCUR AS MAV
GUIDANCE HAS CIGS ABOVE TWELVE THOUSAND FEET. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP... PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FLURRIES LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 051659
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1059 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEST WINDS BACK
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. QUESTIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY IF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP BELOW AN INVERSION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AFTER
15Z ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THIS WILL OCCUR AS MAV
GUIDANCE HAS CIGS ABOVE TWELVE THOUSAND FEET. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP... PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FLURRIES LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 051659
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1059 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEST WINDS BACK
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. QUESTIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY IF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP BELOW AN INVERSION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AFTER
15Z ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THIS WILL OCCUR AS MAV
GUIDANCE HAS CIGS ABOVE TWELVE THOUSAND FEET. IF MVFR CIGS DO
DEVELOP... PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FLURRIES LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 051106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
506 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 051106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
506 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 051106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
506 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 050843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NOW THAT WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN...GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 050843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NOW THAT WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN...GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 050843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NOW THAT WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN...GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 050843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LARGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE TN VALLEY
REGION TO THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. SWATH OF WINTER STORM HEADLINES
AND FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG AND NEAR THIS INTENSE BOUNDARY WITH WARM
GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH.

MUCH QUIETER BUT COLDER REGIME TO DOMINATE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.

COLD START THIS MORNING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH HOW FAST THE TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
PRIOR TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN.  PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLEAR START
FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SO WILL FOCUS MIN TEMPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GO THE STEADY ROUTE. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE MUCH PCPN BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OF
FLURRIES DUE TO THE MORNING WEAK WAA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSITION FROM NW THIS
WEEKEND TO SW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST
COAST UPR RDG WEAKENS. NE WI WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LIGHT AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST THEN SW...PACIFIC AIR WL REPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY.
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE CAN GET WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
HOW LONG THIS WARMER AIR CAN HANG AROUND IS OPEN TO DEBATE AS THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW
CONUS/SW CANADA. MORE ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW...LET`S
ENJOY THE MARCH THAW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDNGT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRES TO REACH VCNTY LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. A CDFNT WL ACCOMPANY THE SFC LOW INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NRN WI WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS SHOWN ON THE TIME SECTIONS.
THICKENING CLOUDS WL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP WITH MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS. THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES ON SAT WITH A VERY WEAK HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE MILD
START TO THE DAY WL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30-35 DEG RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NGT AS THE WEAK HI PRES SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SE TO JUST EAST
OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE SFC HI PULLS AWAY WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE. THIS NEXT CLIPPER DOES NOT
DIVE AS FAR SE AS ITS PREDECESSOR...INSTEAD TRACKING MORE E-SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION
WL SWEEP ACROSS NE WI PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S (PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING) WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE RAIN TO PERHAPS MIX WITH
THE SNOW. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF HWY 29 IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO ESSENTIALLY BE ZONAL BY NEXT TUE
WITH THE ACTIVE NRN BRANCH KEEPING ANY SYSTEMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
SRN CANADA. THIS LEAVES NE WI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HI PRES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PREVAILING SW WIND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD WI WITH MAX TEMPS ON
TUE ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH/LAKESHORE...MID TO UPR
40S ELSEWHERE.

FCST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AS THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
A RESULTANT SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ALONG FAR SRN CANADA OR NRN
TIER OF STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TAKING A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND SENDING A STRONG
CDFNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND ESSENTIALLY SAGS THE MUCH
WEAKER CDFNT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. FOR ALL
INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THIS MAJOR MODEL CONFLICT WOULD NOT IMPACT NE
WI UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTS
TEMPS. UNTIL THEN...WED SHOULD STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NOW THAT WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN...GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 050429
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH (NORTH-CENTRAL) FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT MEET THE
WIND REQUIREMENT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LAND O
LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM TOWARDS
SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE NORTHERN US PACIFIC COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO ITS
SOUTHEAST AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS GENERATES A SPLIT FLOW WITH
A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITED FACTORS. PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT FOR ANY OF THE PASSING FEATURES. AFTER THOSE
MOVE THROUGH THE BIG STORY BECOMES WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS
WOULD BE A REAL WARMUP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO NOT
JUST APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS...BUT EVEN EXCEED THEM FOR MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL START A TREND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCREASE CLOUDS...CUTTING OFF THE
FALL OF TEMPERATURES BEFORE FALLING AS LOW AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
HOWEVER THESE WINDS...DESPITE BEGINNING WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY BRING US ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE
AND VERY WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY. STILL...A FLURRY MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLEAR OUT...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BY NOW THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS AND SO BRING
IN A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS...LOOK TO BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A -BLINK AND YOU MISS
IT- SURFACE RIDGE WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL
HAVE ONLY LITTLE SUCCESS IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A VORT MAX DIGGING FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN...EVEN WITH A
SECONDARY MAX FILAMENT STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MICHIGAN
BORDER. A SLOWER GFS DRAGS SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE TO CUT
ANY PRECIP OFF. WILL DRAG SOME VERY LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
HEDGE FOR SLOWER MOTION...BUT THE PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE
PATTERN OF QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE
FAVORED CLIPPER...BUT NOW A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH A MORE
PRODUCTIVE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE LIMITS ITS POTENTIAL IN THE
GUIDANCE. DO NOT LIKE TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE PRECIP POTENTIAL
AS JET PLACEMENT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BOTH MORE FAVORABLE WITH
THIS CLIPPER THAN PREVIOUS ONES...BUT THERE STILL IS THE QUESTION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS AND
BIDE TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S AND VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AGAIN REPEAT A VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA...PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS FINAL CLIPPER LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST FORCING UP IN CANADA. WITH LESS IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER EXPECTED...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY
MEET OR EVEN CLEAR 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
BY THIS POINT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
PACIFIC...RATHER THAN ARCTIC...AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT...WE CAN LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
RISING INTO THE MIDWEEK. IF WE CAN GET GOOD MELTING OF WHAT SNOW
EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...IT WOULD NOT BE
UNREASONABLE TO SEE OUR FIRST 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
OCCUR. THOUGH THE TIME RANGE IS CAUSE FOR WARM LOVERS TO TEMPER
THEIR EXCITEMENT...THIS SIGNAL HAS EXISTED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
SOME TIME NOW...GIVING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN
USUAL FOR A WEEK OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NOW THAT WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN...GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 050429
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH (NORTH-CENTRAL) FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT MEET THE
WIND REQUIREMENT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LAND O
LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM TOWARDS
SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE NORTHERN US PACIFIC COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO ITS
SOUTHEAST AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS GENERATES A SPLIT FLOW WITH
A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITED FACTORS. PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT FOR ANY OF THE PASSING FEATURES. AFTER THOSE
MOVE THROUGH THE BIG STORY BECOMES WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS
WOULD BE A REAL WARMUP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO NOT
JUST APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS...BUT EVEN EXCEED THEM FOR MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL START A TREND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCREASE CLOUDS...CUTTING OFF THE
FALL OF TEMPERATURES BEFORE FALLING AS LOW AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
HOWEVER THESE WINDS...DESPITE BEGINNING WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY BRING US ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE
AND VERY WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY. STILL...A FLURRY MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLEAR OUT...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BY NOW THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS AND SO BRING
IN A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS...LOOK TO BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A -BLINK AND YOU MISS
IT- SURFACE RIDGE WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL
HAVE ONLY LITTLE SUCCESS IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A VORT MAX DIGGING FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN...EVEN WITH A
SECONDARY MAX FILAMENT STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MICHIGAN
BORDER. A SLOWER GFS DRAGS SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE TO CUT
ANY PRECIP OFF. WILL DRAG SOME VERY LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
HEDGE FOR SLOWER MOTION...BUT THE PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE
PATTERN OF QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE
FAVORED CLIPPER...BUT NOW A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH A MORE
PRODUCTIVE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE LIMITS ITS POTENTIAL IN THE
GUIDANCE. DO NOT LIKE TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE PRECIP POTENTIAL
AS JET PLACEMENT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BOTH MORE FAVORABLE WITH
THIS CLIPPER THAN PREVIOUS ONES...BUT THERE STILL IS THE QUESTION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS AND
BIDE TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S AND VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AGAIN REPEAT A VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA...PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS FINAL CLIPPER LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST FORCING UP IN CANADA. WITH LESS IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER EXPECTED...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY
MEET OR EVEN CLEAR 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
BY THIS POINT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
PACIFIC...RATHER THAN ARCTIC...AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT...WE CAN LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
RISING INTO THE MIDWEEK. IF WE CAN GET GOOD MELTING OF WHAT SNOW
EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...IT WOULD NOT BE
UNREASONABLE TO SEE OUR FIRST 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
OCCUR. THOUGH THE TIME RANGE IS CAUSE FOR WARM LOVERS TO TEMPER
THEIR EXCITEMENT...THIS SIGNAL HAS EXISTED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
SOME TIME NOW...GIVING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN
USUAL FOR A WEEK OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NOW THAT WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN...GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 050429
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH (NORTH-CENTRAL) FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT MEET THE
WIND REQUIREMENT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LAND O
LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM TOWARDS
SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE NORTHERN US PACIFIC COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO ITS
SOUTHEAST AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS GENERATES A SPLIT FLOW WITH
A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITED FACTORS. PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT FOR ANY OF THE PASSING FEATURES. AFTER THOSE
MOVE THROUGH THE BIG STORY BECOMES WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS
WOULD BE A REAL WARMUP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO NOT
JUST APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS...BUT EVEN EXCEED THEM FOR MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL START A TREND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCREASE CLOUDS...CUTTING OFF THE
FALL OF TEMPERATURES BEFORE FALLING AS LOW AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
HOWEVER THESE WINDS...DESPITE BEGINNING WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY BRING US ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE
AND VERY WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY. STILL...A FLURRY MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLEAR OUT...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BY NOW THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS AND SO BRING
IN A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS...LOOK TO BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A -BLINK AND YOU MISS
IT- SURFACE RIDGE WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL
HAVE ONLY LITTLE SUCCESS IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A VORT MAX DIGGING FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN...EVEN WITH A
SECONDARY MAX FILAMENT STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MICHIGAN
BORDER. A SLOWER GFS DRAGS SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE TO CUT
ANY PRECIP OFF. WILL DRAG SOME VERY LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
HEDGE FOR SLOWER MOTION...BUT THE PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE
PATTERN OF QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE
FAVORED CLIPPER...BUT NOW A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH A MORE
PRODUCTIVE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE LIMITS ITS POTENTIAL IN THE
GUIDANCE. DO NOT LIKE TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE PRECIP POTENTIAL
AS JET PLACEMENT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BOTH MORE FAVORABLE WITH
THIS CLIPPER THAN PREVIOUS ONES...BUT THERE STILL IS THE QUESTION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS AND
BIDE TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S AND VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AGAIN REPEAT A VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA...PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS FINAL CLIPPER LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST FORCING UP IN CANADA. WITH LESS IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER EXPECTED...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY
MEET OR EVEN CLEAR 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
BY THIS POINT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
PACIFIC...RATHER THAN ARCTIC...AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT...WE CAN LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
RISING INTO THE MIDWEEK. IF WE CAN GET GOOD MELTING OF WHAT SNOW
EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...IT WOULD NOT BE
UNREASONABLE TO SEE OUR FIRST 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
OCCUR. THOUGH THE TIME RANGE IS CAUSE FOR WARM LOVERS TO TEMPER
THEIR EXCITEMENT...THIS SIGNAL HAS EXISTED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
SOME TIME NOW...GIVING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN
USUAL FOR A WEEK OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NOW THAT WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN...GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 042255
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
455 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH (NORTH-CENTRAL) FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT MEET THE
WIND REQUIREMENT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LAND O
LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM TOWARDS
SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE NORTHERN US PACIFIC COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO ITS
SOUTHEAST AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS GENERATES A SPLIT FLOW WITH
A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITED FACTORS. PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT FOR ANY OF THE PASSING FEATURES. AFTER THOSE
MOVE THROUGH THE BIG STORY BECOMES WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS
WOULD BE A REAL WARMUP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO NOT
JUST APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS...BUT EVEN EXCEED THEM FOR MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL START A TREND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCREASE CLOUDS...CUTTING OFF THE
FALL OF TEMPERATURES BEFORE FALLING AS LOW AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
HOWEVER THESE WINDS...DESPITE BEGINNING WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY BRING US ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE
AND VERY WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY. STILL...A FLURRY MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLEAR OUT...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BY NOW THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS AND SO BRING
IN A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS...LOOK TO BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A -BLINK AND YOU MISS
IT- SURFACE RIDGE WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL
HAVE ONLY LITTLE SUCCESS IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A VORT MAX DIGGING FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN...EVEN WITH A
SECONDARY MAX FILAMENT STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MICHIGAN
BORDER. A SLOWER GFS DRAGS SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE TO CUT
ANY PRECIP OFF. WILL DRAG SOME VERY LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
HEDGE FOR SLOWER MOTION...BUT THE PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE
PATTERN OF QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE
FAVORED CLIPPER...BUT NOW A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH A MORE
PRODUCTIVE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE LIMITS ITS POTENTIAL IN THE
GUIDANCE. DO NOT LIKE TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE PRECIP POTENTIAL
AS JET PLACEMENT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BOTH MORE FAVORABLE WITH
THIS CLIPPER THAN PREVIOUS ONES...BUT THERE STILL IS THE QUESTION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS AND
BIDE TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S AND VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AGAIN REPEAT A VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA...PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS FINAL CLIPPER LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST FORCING UP IN CANADA. WITH LESS IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER EXPECTED...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY
MEET OR EVEN CLEAR 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
BY THIS POINT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
PACIFIC...RATHER THAN ARCTIC...AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT...WE CAN LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
RISING INTO THE MIDWEEK. IF WE CAN GET GOOD MELTING OF WHAT SNOW
EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...IT WOULD NOT BE
UNREASONABLE TO SEE OUR FIRST 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
OCCUR. THOUGH THE TIME RANGE IS CAUSE FOR WARM LOVERS TO TEMPER
THEIR EXCITEMENT...THIS SIGNAL HAS EXISTED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
SOME TIME NOW...GIVING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN
USUAL FOR A WEEK OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

DEEP MIXING GENERATED BY STG /RELATIVE TO A MONTH OR TWO AGO/
MARCH SUNSHINE RESULTED IN SOME WIND GUSTS AOA 30 KTS ACRS THE
AREA DURING THE MID-AFTN. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY ARND
SUNSET...GENERALLY INTO THE 6-12 KT RANGE. ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE CLDS WL ALSO DISSIPATE. GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 042255
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
455 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH (NORTH-CENTRAL) FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT MEET THE
WIND REQUIREMENT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LAND O
LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM TOWARDS
SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE NORTHERN US PACIFIC COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO ITS
SOUTHEAST AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS GENERATES A SPLIT FLOW WITH
A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITED FACTORS. PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT FOR ANY OF THE PASSING FEATURES. AFTER THOSE
MOVE THROUGH THE BIG STORY BECOMES WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS
WOULD BE A REAL WARMUP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO NOT
JUST APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS...BUT EVEN EXCEED THEM FOR MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL START A TREND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCREASE CLOUDS...CUTTING OFF THE
FALL OF TEMPERATURES BEFORE FALLING AS LOW AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
HOWEVER THESE WINDS...DESPITE BEGINNING WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY BRING US ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE
AND VERY WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY. STILL...A FLURRY MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLEAR OUT...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BY NOW THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS AND SO BRING
IN A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS...LOOK TO BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A -BLINK AND YOU MISS
IT- SURFACE RIDGE WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL
HAVE ONLY LITTLE SUCCESS IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A VORT MAX DIGGING FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN...EVEN WITH A
SECONDARY MAX FILAMENT STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MICHIGAN
BORDER. A SLOWER GFS DRAGS SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE TO CUT
ANY PRECIP OFF. WILL DRAG SOME VERY LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
HEDGE FOR SLOWER MOTION...BUT THE PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE
PATTERN OF QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE
FAVORED CLIPPER...BUT NOW A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH A MORE
PRODUCTIVE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE LIMITS ITS POTENTIAL IN THE
GUIDANCE. DO NOT LIKE TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE PRECIP POTENTIAL
AS JET PLACEMENT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BOTH MORE FAVORABLE WITH
THIS CLIPPER THAN PREVIOUS ONES...BUT THERE STILL IS THE QUESTION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS AND
BIDE TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S AND VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AGAIN REPEAT A VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA...PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS FINAL CLIPPER LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST FORCING UP IN CANADA. WITH LESS IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER EXPECTED...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY
MEET OR EVEN CLEAR 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
BY THIS POINT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
PACIFIC...RATHER THAN ARCTIC...AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT...WE CAN LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
RISING INTO THE MIDWEEK. IF WE CAN GET GOOD MELTING OF WHAT SNOW
EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...IT WOULD NOT BE
UNREASONABLE TO SEE OUR FIRST 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
OCCUR. THOUGH THE TIME RANGE IS CAUSE FOR WARM LOVERS TO TEMPER
THEIR EXCITEMENT...THIS SIGNAL HAS EXISTED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
SOME TIME NOW...GIVING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN
USUAL FOR A WEEK OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

DEEP MIXING GENERATED BY STG /RELATIVE TO A MONTH OR TWO AGO/
MARCH SUNSHINE RESULTED IN SOME WIND GUSTS AOA 30 KTS ACRS THE
AREA DURING THE MID-AFTN. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY ARND
SUNSET...GENERALLY INTO THE 6-12 KT RANGE. ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE CLDS WL ALSO DISSIPATE. GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 042255
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
455 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH (NORTH-CENTRAL) FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT MEET THE
WIND REQUIREMENT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LAND O
LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM TOWARDS
SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE NORTHERN US PACIFIC COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO ITS
SOUTHEAST AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS GENERATES A SPLIT FLOW WITH
A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITED FACTORS. PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT FOR ANY OF THE PASSING FEATURES. AFTER THOSE
MOVE THROUGH THE BIG STORY BECOMES WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS
WOULD BE A REAL WARMUP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO NOT
JUST APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS...BUT EVEN EXCEED THEM FOR MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL START A TREND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCREASE CLOUDS...CUTTING OFF THE
FALL OF TEMPERATURES BEFORE FALLING AS LOW AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
HOWEVER THESE WINDS...DESPITE BEGINNING WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY BRING US ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE
AND VERY WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY. STILL...A FLURRY MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLEAR OUT...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BY NOW THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS AND SO BRING
IN A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS...LOOK TO BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A -BLINK AND YOU MISS
IT- SURFACE RIDGE WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL
HAVE ONLY LITTLE SUCCESS IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A VORT MAX DIGGING FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN...EVEN WITH A
SECONDARY MAX FILAMENT STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MICHIGAN
BORDER. A SLOWER GFS DRAGS SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE TO CUT
ANY PRECIP OFF. WILL DRAG SOME VERY LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
HEDGE FOR SLOWER MOTION...BUT THE PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE
PATTERN OF QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE
FAVORED CLIPPER...BUT NOW A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH A MORE
PRODUCTIVE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE LIMITS ITS POTENTIAL IN THE
GUIDANCE. DO NOT LIKE TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE PRECIP POTENTIAL
AS JET PLACEMENT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BOTH MORE FAVORABLE WITH
THIS CLIPPER THAN PREVIOUS ONES...BUT THERE STILL IS THE QUESTION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS AND
BIDE TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S AND VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AGAIN REPEAT A VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA...PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS FINAL CLIPPER LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST FORCING UP IN CANADA. WITH LESS IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER EXPECTED...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY
MEET OR EVEN CLEAR 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
BY THIS POINT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
PACIFIC...RATHER THAN ARCTIC...AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT...WE CAN LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
RISING INTO THE MIDWEEK. IF WE CAN GET GOOD MELTING OF WHAT SNOW
EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...IT WOULD NOT BE
UNREASONABLE TO SEE OUR FIRST 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
OCCUR. THOUGH THE TIME RANGE IS CAUSE FOR WARM LOVERS TO TEMPER
THEIR EXCITEMENT...THIS SIGNAL HAS EXISTED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
SOME TIME NOW...GIVING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN
USUAL FOR A WEEK OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

DEEP MIXING GENERATED BY STG /RELATIVE TO A MONTH OR TWO AGO/
MARCH SUNSHINE RESULTED IN SOME WIND GUSTS AOA 30 KTS ACRS THE
AREA DURING THE MID-AFTN. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY ARND
SUNSET...GENERALLY INTO THE 6-12 KT RANGE. ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE CLDS WL ALSO DISSIPATE. GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR
CATEGORY/ ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 042056
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
(NORTH-CENTRAL) FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT MEET THE WIND
REQUIREMENT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LAND O LAKES...TOMAHAWK
AND MERRILL WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM TOWARDS SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE NORTHERN US PACIFIC COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO ITS
SOUTHEAST AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS GENERATES A SPLIT FLOW
WITH A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITED FACTORS. PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT FOR ANY OF THE PASSING FEATURES. AFTER THOSE
MOVE THROUGH THE BIG STORY BECOMES WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS
WOULD BE A REAL WARMUP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO NOT
JUST APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS...BUT EVEN EXCEED THEM FOR MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL START A TREND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCREASE CLOUDS...CUTTING OFF THE
FALL OF TEMPERATURES BEFORE FALLING AS LOW AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
HOWEVER THESE WINDS...DESPITE BEGINNING WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY BRING US ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE
AND VERY WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY. STILL...A FLURRY MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLEAR OUT...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BY NOW THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS AND SO BRING
IN A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS...LOOK TO BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A -BLINK AND YOU MISS
IT- SURFACE RIDGE WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL
HAVE ONLY LITTLE SUCCESS IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A VORT MAX DIGGING FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN...EVEN WITH A
SECONDARY MAX FILAMENT STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MICHIGAN
BORDER. A SLOWER GFS DRAGS SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE TO CUT
ANY PRECIP OFF. WILL DRAG SOME VERY LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
HEDGE FOR SLOWER MOTION...BUT THE PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE
PATTERN OF QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE
FAVORED CLIPPER...BUT NOW A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH A MORE
PRODUCTIVE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE LIMITS ITS POTENTIAL IN THE
GUIDANCE. DO NOT LIKE TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE PRECIP POTENTIAL
AS JET PLACEMENT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BOTH MORE FAVORABLE WITH
THIS CLIPPER THAN PREVIOUS ONES...BUT THERE STILL IS THE QUESTION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS AND
BIDE TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S AND VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AGAIN REPEAT A VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA...PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS FINAL CLIPPER LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST FORCING UP IN CANADA. WITH LESS IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER EXPECTED...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY
MEET OR EVEN CLEAR 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
BY THIS POINT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
PACIFIC...RATHER THAN ARCTIC...AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT...WE CAN LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
RISING INTO THE MIDWEEK. IF WE CAN GET GOOD MELTING OF WHAT SNOW
EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...IT WOULD NOT BE
UNREASONABLE TO SEE OUR FIRST 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
OCCUR. THOUGH THE TIME RANGE IS CAUSE FOR WARM LOVERS TO TEMPER
THEIR EXCITEMENT...THIS SIGNAL HAS EXISTED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
SOME TIME NOW...GIVING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN
USUAL FOR A WEEK OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL END TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 042056
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
(NORTH-CENTRAL) FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT MEET THE WIND
REQUIREMENT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LAND O LAKES...TOMAHAWK
AND MERRILL WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM TOWARDS SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE NORTHERN US PACIFIC COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO ITS
SOUTHEAST AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS GENERATES A SPLIT FLOW
WITH A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITED FACTORS. PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT FOR ANY OF THE PASSING FEATURES. AFTER THOSE
MOVE THROUGH THE BIG STORY BECOMES WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS
WOULD BE A REAL WARMUP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO NOT
JUST APPROACH SEASONAL NORMS...BUT EVEN EXCEED THEM FOR MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL START A TREND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCREASE CLOUDS...CUTTING OFF THE
FALL OF TEMPERATURES BEFORE FALLING AS LOW AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
HOWEVER THESE WINDS...DESPITE BEGINNING WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY BRING US ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE
AND VERY WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY. STILL...A FLURRY MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW CLEAR OUT...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BY NOW THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE THAN JUST CLOUDS AND SO BRING
IN A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS...LOOK TO BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A -BLINK AND YOU MISS
IT- SURFACE RIDGE WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL
HAVE ONLY LITTLE SUCCESS IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A VORT MAX DIGGING FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN...EVEN WITH A
SECONDARY MAX FILAMENT STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MICHIGAN
BORDER. A SLOWER GFS DRAGS SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE TO CUT
ANY PRECIP OFF. WILL DRAG SOME VERY LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
HEDGE FOR SLOWER MOTION...BUT THE PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE
PATTERN OF QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE
FAVORED CLIPPER...BUT NOW A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH A MORE
PRODUCTIVE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE LIMITS ITS POTENTIAL IN THE
GUIDANCE. DO NOT LIKE TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE PRECIP POTENTIAL
AS JET PLACEMENT AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BOTH MORE FAVORABLE WITH
THIS CLIPPER THAN PREVIOUS ONES...BUT THERE STILL IS THE QUESTION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS AND
BIDE TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 30S AND VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AGAIN REPEAT A VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA...PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS FINAL CLIPPER LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST FORCING UP IN CANADA. WITH LESS IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER EXPECTED...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY
MEET OR EVEN CLEAR 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
BY THIS POINT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
PACIFIC...RATHER THAN ARCTIC...AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT...WE CAN LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
RISING INTO THE MIDWEEK. IF WE CAN GET GOOD MELTING OF WHAT SNOW
EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...IT WOULD NOT BE
UNREASONABLE TO SEE OUR FIRST 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
OCCUR. THOUGH THE TIME RANGE IS CAUSE FOR WARM LOVERS TO TEMPER
THEIR EXCITEMENT...THIS SIGNAL HAS EXISTED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
SOME TIME NOW...GIVING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAN
USUAL FOR A WEEK OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL END TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 041654
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL END TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 041654
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL END TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG









000
FXUS63 KGRB 041654
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL END TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 041654
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL END TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG









000
FXUS63 KGRB 041134
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
534 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS
ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 041134
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
534 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS
ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 040841
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC AIR NOW SURGING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME
LINGERING LOW CLDS...BUT THOSE SHOULD DECR AS THE COLDER AND DRIER
AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY GOOD
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 040841
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC AIR NOW SURGING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME
LINGERING LOW CLDS...BUT THOSE SHOULD DECR AS THE COLDER AND DRIER
AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY GOOD
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 040841
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC AIR NOW SURGING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME
LINGERING LOW CLDS...BUT THOSE SHOULD DECR AS THE COLDER AND DRIER
AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY GOOD
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 040841
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AN INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO THE THE EAST COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A VARIETY OF WEATHER FORM WINTER STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FLOODING. FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN QUIET BUT COLDER AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

COLDER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LATEST WIND CHILL NUMBERS JUST BARELY REACHING CRITERIA THIS
MORNING OVER NC WI SO NO HEADLINE NEEDED...AND WITH COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS
WELL.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER THE FAR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOTE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WITH A
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
ALSO CONTAINS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD
A BRIEF MENTION OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE
TO 750 MB IN COHORTS WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS UPR
RDG AND DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM THAT WL
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPR RDG IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. THRU THE WEEKEND...MAIN FCST TO BE ON WEAK SYSTEMS/CDFNTS
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO A MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER SPARSE...THUS ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A GOOD LENGTH OF TIME (I.E. MORE THAN ONE DAY).

SFC HI SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU NGT...ALLOWING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...HOWEVER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND LIFT IS VERY WEAK. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES MAY
IMPINGE ON N-CNTRL WI LATE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW
AND FOCUS MORE ON THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE NGT WHICH WOULD IMPACT MIN TEMPS. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE MINS WL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING WITH READINGS
SLOWLY RISING AS WAA CONTS THRU THE NGT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI...WHILE THE
TRAILING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL WI EARLY FRI AFTERNOON/
ERN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE FCST. SW WINDS PRECEDING THE
CDFNT...COUPLED WITH WAA...SHOULD BRING A MILDER DAY TO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

A VERY WEAK SFC RDG AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...EVEN
AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM (CLIPPER) MOVES INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS LITTLE SFC
RDG WL HAVE ENUF OOMPH TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS...THUS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR DURING THE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LWR 20S. AS FOR PCPN CHCS...BETTER
FORCING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST OVRNGT WITH NRN WI THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. FOR NOW...
HAVE SIMPLY THROWN A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE MI BORDER. FCST FOR SAT APPEARED
TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD UNTIL THE GFS CAME IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE CLIPPER. SINCE THE GFS IS ALONE WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE
IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND WL FAVOR THE MAJORITY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK
AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
DEGS FAR N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (ANOTHER CLIPPER) SWEEPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO...LEAVING THE CDFNT AT THE SFC AND
A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELSTO TRY AND GENERATE PCPN. THIS
SYSTEM DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...THUS HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SFC RDG SUNDAY NGT...THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS FCST TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON MON. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A PREVAILING SW WIND WL BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI
WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C. IF CLOUDS CAN STAY AWAY LONG ENUF
AND THERE IS NO SERIOUS IMPACT DUE TO MELTING SNOW...THERE IS A
REAL SHOT THAT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA COULD
SURPASS 40 DEGS.

THIS CLIPPER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HEADED INTO ON NGT WITH ONLY
A WEAK SFC TROF SENDING THE WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY
TUE...THE WRN CONUS UPR RDG TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
MOVED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES. PACIFIC AIR MASS WL CONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER (ONE ALWAYS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT A
STRATUS DECK FROM MELTING SNOW)...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA TO REACH INTO THE 40S. IN FACT...IF SRN AREAS CAN LOSE
THEIR SNOW PACK...TEMPS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE
50 DEG MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC AIR NOW SURGING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME
LINGERING LOW CLDS...BUT THOSE SHOULD DECR AS THE COLDER AND DRIER
AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY GOOD
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 040428
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1028 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BY
3 PM. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WILL BE AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE IT
WILL ONLY REACH CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...
ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AT OUR TYPICAL WARMER
SPOTS. CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT 500 MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE
EAST AND PAIR WITH A RIDGE TENTATIVELY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WEST COAST TO RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR AND MORE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF SPLIT FLOW
AS THE DISPLACED WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE NEWEST ARCTIC AIR MASS TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST
BY NAEFS TO BRING 850 MB TEMPS TO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE AND BELOW
THE 3RD PERCENTILE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SUBZERO LOWS. HOW LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CAN GO WILL BE
DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COMES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED EAST ALONG
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANY LAKE EFFECT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS THE STATUS OF THE
WINDS. CALM WINDS WOULD PROVIDE FOR LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES...BUT
WOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ENOUGH WINDS WOULD ARREST TEMPERATURES FALLS TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT WOULD MAKE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE AREA CREATING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THERE
IS A TENDENCY FOR WINDS IN THE COLDEST AREA TO GO SLACK. WITH
THIS...AM OPTING FOR COLDER LOWS AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO MAKE WIND CHILL HEADLINES A NECESSITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING BY THROUGH ILLINOIS THURSDAY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY. THOUGH THE EMERGENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTION OF WARM AIR...IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE COLD START MEANS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ON THE ORDER OF 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL AGAIN BE DOWN AROUND THE ZERO MARK
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE STRONGER SW WINDS WILL BOLSTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BRING MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS...AND INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. INDEED...THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
CARRY FRIDAY HIGHS TO LEVELS APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
A MUCH DICIER PROPOSITION. THE GEM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
STRING OF SHORTWAVES AND DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT IN THIS AREA AND KEEPS
SNOW FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ANOTHER MODEST CLIPPER TOWARDS
THE AREA. THE GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRIVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WHILE THE EURO FALLS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AS A BIT
OF A COMPROMISE. IN ANY CASE...JET STREAKS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
DO APPEAR TO SET UP MUCH MORE FAVORABLY THAN WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM...MAKING THE IDEA OF SNOW MORE PALATABLE FOR SUNDAY. THE
GEM SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE FEATURES ALOFT...SO THE
FORECAST NOW LEANS TO THE EURO/GFS AND KEEPS POPS RELATIVELY LOW.

FINALLY...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN AND ONE LAST SHOT AT UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS
RANGE...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY. LIKE PREVIOUS WAVES...THE CANADIAN IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A DECENT JET STRUCTURE AND SOME
FRONTOGENESIS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR
MORE LIGHT SNOW. THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING
THE BEST JET STRUCTURE LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE CLIPPERS RESTRICTING THE DURATION OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH...SO EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OUR AREA IN DEFERENCE TO THE CANADIAN...BUT WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR NORTH.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ABSENCE OF A
RENEWED ARCTIC SURGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
AGAIN...INSTEAD STAYING NEAR NORMAL. INDEED...TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC AIR NOW SURGING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME
LINGERING LOW CLDS...BUT THOSE SHOULD DECR AS THE COLDER AND DRIER
AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY GOOD
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 040428
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1028 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BY
3 PM. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WILL BE AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE IT
WILL ONLY REACH CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...
ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AT OUR TYPICAL WARMER
SPOTS. CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT 500 MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE
EAST AND PAIR WITH A RIDGE TENTATIVELY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WEST COAST TO RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR AND MORE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF SPLIT FLOW
AS THE DISPLACED WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE NEWEST ARCTIC AIR MASS TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST
BY NAEFS TO BRING 850 MB TEMPS TO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE AND BELOW
THE 3RD PERCENTILE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SUBZERO LOWS. HOW LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CAN GO WILL BE
DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COMES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED EAST ALONG
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANY LAKE EFFECT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS THE STATUS OF THE
WINDS. CALM WINDS WOULD PROVIDE FOR LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES...BUT
WOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ENOUGH WINDS WOULD ARREST TEMPERATURES FALLS TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT WOULD MAKE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE AREA CREATING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THERE
IS A TENDENCY FOR WINDS IN THE COLDEST AREA TO GO SLACK. WITH
THIS...AM OPTING FOR COLDER LOWS AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO MAKE WIND CHILL HEADLINES A NECESSITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING BY THROUGH ILLINOIS THURSDAY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY. THOUGH THE EMERGENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTION OF WARM AIR...IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE COLD START MEANS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ON THE ORDER OF 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL AGAIN BE DOWN AROUND THE ZERO MARK
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE STRONGER SW WINDS WILL BOLSTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BRING MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS...AND INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. INDEED...THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
CARRY FRIDAY HIGHS TO LEVELS APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
A MUCH DICIER PROPOSITION. THE GEM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
STRING OF SHORTWAVES AND DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT IN THIS AREA AND KEEPS
SNOW FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ANOTHER MODEST CLIPPER TOWARDS
THE AREA. THE GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRIVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WHILE THE EURO FALLS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AS A BIT
OF A COMPROMISE. IN ANY CASE...JET STREAKS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
DO APPEAR TO SET UP MUCH MORE FAVORABLY THAN WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM...MAKING THE IDEA OF SNOW MORE PALATABLE FOR SUNDAY. THE
GEM SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE FEATURES ALOFT...SO THE
FORECAST NOW LEANS TO THE EURO/GFS AND KEEPS POPS RELATIVELY LOW.

FINALLY...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN AND ONE LAST SHOT AT UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS
RANGE...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY. LIKE PREVIOUS WAVES...THE CANADIAN IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A DECENT JET STRUCTURE AND SOME
FRONTOGENESIS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR
MORE LIGHT SNOW. THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING
THE BEST JET STRUCTURE LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE CLIPPERS RESTRICTING THE DURATION OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH...SO EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OUR AREA IN DEFERENCE TO THE CANADIAN...BUT WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR NORTH.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ABSENCE OF A
RENEWED ARCTIC SURGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
AGAIN...INSTEAD STAYING NEAR NORMAL. INDEED...TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC AIR NOW SURGING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME
LINGERING LOW CLDS...BUT THOSE SHOULD DECR AS THE COLDER AND DRIER
AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY GOOD
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 032327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
527 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BY
3 PM. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WILL BE AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE IT
WILL ONLY REACH CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...
ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AT OUR TYPICAL WARMER
SPOTS. CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT 500 MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE
EAST AND PAIR WITH A RIDGE TENTATIVELY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WEST COAST TO RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR AND MORE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF SPLIT FLOW
AS THE DISPLACED WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE NEWEST ARCTIC AIR MASS TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST
BY NAEFS TO BRING 850 MB TEMPS TO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE AND BELOW
THE 3RD PERCENTILE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SUBZERO LOWS. HOW LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CAN GO WILL BE
DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COMES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED EAST ALONG
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANY LAKE EFFECT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS THE STATUS OF THE
WINDS. CALM WINDS WOULD PROVIDE FOR LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES...BUT
WOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ENOUGH WINDS WOULD ARREST TEMPERATURES FALLS TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT WOULD MAKE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE AREA CREATING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THERE
IS A TENDENCY FOR WINDS IN THE COLDEST AREA TO GO SLACK. WITH
THIS...AM OPTING FOR COLDER LOWS AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO MAKE WIND CHILL HEADLINES A NECESSITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING BY THROUGH ILLINOIS THURSDAY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY. THOUGH THE EMERGENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTION OF WARM AIR...IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE COLD START MEANS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ON THE ORDER OF 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL AGAIN BE DOWN AROUND THE ZERO MARK
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE STRONGER SW WINDS WILL BOLSTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BRING MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS...AND INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. INDEED...THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
CARRY FRIDAY HIGHS TO LEVELS APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
A MUCH DICIER PROPOSITION. THE GEM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
STRING OF SHORTWAVES AND DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT IN THIS AREA AND KEEPS
SNOW FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ANOTHER MODEST CLIPPER TOWARDS
THE AREA. THE GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRIVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WHILE THE EURO FALLS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AS A BIT
OF A COMPROMISE. IN ANY CASE...JET STREAKS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
DO APPEAR TO SET UP MUCH MORE FAVORABLY THAN WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM...MAKING THE IDEA OF SNOW MORE PALATABLE FOR SUNDAY. THE
GEM SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE FEATURES ALOFT...SO THE
FORECAST NOW LEANS TO THE EURO/GFS AND KEEPS POPS RELATIVELY LOW.

FINALLY...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN AND ONE LAST SHOT AT UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS
RANGE...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY. LIKE PREVIOUS WAVES...THE CANADIAN IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A DECENT JET STRUCTURE AND SOME
FRONTOGENESIS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR
MORE LIGHT SNOW. THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING
THE BEST JET STRUCTURE LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE CLIPPERS RESTRICTING THE DURATION OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH...SO EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OUR AREA IN DEFERENCE TO THE CANADIAN...BUT WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR NORTH.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ABSENCE OF A
RENEWED ARCTIC SURGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
AGAIN...INSTEAD STAYING NEAR NORMAL. INDEED...TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE FCST AREA TNGT. THAT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS...AND GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONCE
THE CURRENT MVFR CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES/SHIFTS SE OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 032327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
527 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BY
3 PM. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WILL BE AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE IT
WILL ONLY REACH CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...
ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AT OUR TYPICAL WARMER
SPOTS. CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT 500 MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE
EAST AND PAIR WITH A RIDGE TENTATIVELY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WEST COAST TO RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR AND MORE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF SPLIT FLOW
AS THE DISPLACED WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE NEWEST ARCTIC AIR MASS TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST
BY NAEFS TO BRING 850 MB TEMPS TO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE AND BELOW
THE 3RD PERCENTILE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SUBZERO LOWS. HOW LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CAN GO WILL BE
DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COMES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED EAST ALONG
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANY LAKE EFFECT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS THE STATUS OF THE
WINDS. CALM WINDS WOULD PROVIDE FOR LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES...BUT
WOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ENOUGH WINDS WOULD ARREST TEMPERATURES FALLS TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT WOULD MAKE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE AREA CREATING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THERE
IS A TENDENCY FOR WINDS IN THE COLDEST AREA TO GO SLACK. WITH
THIS...AM OPTING FOR COLDER LOWS AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO MAKE WIND CHILL HEADLINES A NECESSITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING BY THROUGH ILLINOIS THURSDAY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY. THOUGH THE EMERGENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTION OF WARM AIR...IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE COLD START MEANS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ON THE ORDER OF 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL AGAIN BE DOWN AROUND THE ZERO MARK
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE STRONGER SW WINDS WILL BOLSTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BRING MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS...AND INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. INDEED...THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
CARRY FRIDAY HIGHS TO LEVELS APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
A MUCH DICIER PROPOSITION. THE GEM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
STRING OF SHORTWAVES AND DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT IN THIS AREA AND KEEPS
SNOW FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ANOTHER MODEST CLIPPER TOWARDS
THE AREA. THE GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRIVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WHILE THE EURO FALLS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AS A BIT
OF A COMPROMISE. IN ANY CASE...JET STREAKS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
DO APPEAR TO SET UP MUCH MORE FAVORABLY THAN WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM...MAKING THE IDEA OF SNOW MORE PALATABLE FOR SUNDAY. THE
GEM SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE FEATURES ALOFT...SO THE
FORECAST NOW LEANS TO THE EURO/GFS AND KEEPS POPS RELATIVELY LOW.

FINALLY...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN AND ONE LAST SHOT AT UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS
RANGE...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY. LIKE PREVIOUS WAVES...THE CANADIAN IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A DECENT JET STRUCTURE AND SOME
FRONTOGENESIS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR
MORE LIGHT SNOW. THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING
THE BEST JET STRUCTURE LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE CLIPPERS RESTRICTING THE DURATION OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH...SO EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OUR AREA IN DEFERENCE TO THE CANADIAN...BUT WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR NORTH.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ABSENCE OF A
RENEWED ARCTIC SURGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
AGAIN...INSTEAD STAYING NEAR NORMAL. INDEED...TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE FCST AREA TNGT. THAT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS...AND GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONCE
THE CURRENT MVFR CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES/SHIFTS SE OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI










000
FXUS63 KGRB 032059
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
259 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BY
3 PM. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WILL BE AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE IT
WILL ONLY REACH CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...
ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AT OUR TYPICAL WARMER
SPOTS. CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT 500 MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE
EAST AND PAIR WITH A RIDGE TENTATIVELY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WEST COAST TO RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR AND MORE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF SPLIT FLOW
AS THE DISPLACED WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE NEWEST ARCTIC AIR MASS TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST
BY NAEFS TO BRING 850 MB TEMPS TO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE AND BELOW
THE 3RD PERCENTILE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SUBZERO LOWS. HOW LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CAN GO WILL BE
DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COMES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED EAST ALONG
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANY LAKE EFFECT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS THE STATUS OF THE
WINDS. CALM WINDS WOULD PROVIDE FOR LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES...BUT
WOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ENOUGH WINDS WOULD ARREST TEMPERATURES FALLS TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT WOULD MAKE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE AREA CREATING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THERE
IS A TENDENCY FOR WINDS IN THE COLDEST AREA TO GO SLACK. WITH
THIS...AM OPTING FOR COLDER LOWS AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO MAKE WIND CHILL HEADLINES A NECESSITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING BY THROUGH ILLINOIS THURSDAY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY. THOUGH THE EMERGENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTION OF WARM AIR...IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE COLD START MEANS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ON THE ORDER OF 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL AGAIN BE DOWN AROUND THE ZERO MARK
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE STRONGER SW WINDS WILL BOLSTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BRING MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS...AND INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. INDEED...THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
CARRY FRIDAY HIGHS TO LEVELS APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
A MUCH DICIER PROPOSITION. THE GEM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
STRING OF SHORTWAVES AND DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT IN THIS AREA AND KEEPS
SNOW FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ANOTHER MODEST CLIPPER TOWARDS
THE AREA. THE GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRIVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WHILE THE EURO FALLS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AS A BIT
OF A COMPROMISE. IN ANY CASE...JET STREAKS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
DO APPEAR TO SET UP MUCH MORE FAVORABLY THAN WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM...MAKING THE IDEA OF SNOW MORE PALATABLE FOR SUNDAY. THE
GEM SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE FEATURES ALOFT...SO THE
FORECAST NOW LEANS TO THE EURO/GFS AND KEEPS POPS RELATIVELY LOW.

FINALLY...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN AND ONE LAST SHOT AT UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS
RANGE...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY. LIKE PREVIOUS WAVES...THE CANADIAN IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A DECENT JET STRUCTURE AND SOME
FRONTOGENESIS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR
MORE LIGHT SNOW. THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING
THE BEST JET STRUCTURE LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE CLIPPERS RESTRICTING THE DURATION OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH...SO EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OUR AREA IN DEFERENCE TO THE CANADIAN...BUT WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR NORTH.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ABSENCE OF A
RENEWED ARCTIC SURGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
AGAIN...INSTEAD STAYING NEAR NORMAL. INDEED...TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN FOR A TIME
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORMATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 032059
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
259 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BY
3 PM. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WILL BE AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE IT
WILL ONLY REACH CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...
ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AT OUR TYPICAL WARMER
SPOTS. CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT 500 MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE
EAST AND PAIR WITH A RIDGE TENTATIVELY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WEST COAST TO RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR AND MORE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF SPLIT FLOW
AS THE DISPLACED WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE NEWEST ARCTIC AIR MASS TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST
BY NAEFS TO BRING 850 MB TEMPS TO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE AND BELOW
THE 3RD PERCENTILE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SUBZERO LOWS. HOW LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CAN GO WILL BE
DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COMES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED EAST ALONG
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANY LAKE EFFECT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS THE STATUS OF THE
WINDS. CALM WINDS WOULD PROVIDE FOR LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES...BUT
WOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ENOUGH WINDS WOULD ARREST TEMPERATURES FALLS TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT WOULD MAKE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE AREA CREATING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THERE
IS A TENDENCY FOR WINDS IN THE COLDEST AREA TO GO SLACK. WITH
THIS...AM OPTING FOR COLDER LOWS AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO MAKE WIND CHILL HEADLINES A NECESSITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING BY THROUGH ILLINOIS THURSDAY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY. THOUGH THE EMERGENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTION OF WARM AIR...IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE COLD START MEANS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ON THE ORDER OF 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL AGAIN BE DOWN AROUND THE ZERO MARK
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE STRONGER SW WINDS WILL BOLSTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BRING MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS...AND INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. INDEED...THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
CARRY FRIDAY HIGHS TO LEVELS APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
A MUCH DICIER PROPOSITION. THE GEM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
STRING OF SHORTWAVES AND DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT IN THIS AREA AND KEEPS
SNOW FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ANOTHER MODEST CLIPPER TOWARDS
THE AREA. THE GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRIVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WHILE THE EURO FALLS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AS A BIT
OF A COMPROMISE. IN ANY CASE...JET STREAKS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
DO APPEAR TO SET UP MUCH MORE FAVORABLY THAN WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM...MAKING THE IDEA OF SNOW MORE PALATABLE FOR SUNDAY. THE
GEM SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE FEATURES ALOFT...SO THE
FORECAST NOW LEANS TO THE EURO/GFS AND KEEPS POPS RELATIVELY LOW.

FINALLY...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN AND ONE LAST SHOT AT UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS
RANGE...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY. LIKE PREVIOUS WAVES...THE CANADIAN IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A DECENT JET STRUCTURE AND SOME
FRONTOGENESIS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR
MORE LIGHT SNOW. THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING
THE BEST JET STRUCTURE LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE CLIPPERS RESTRICTING THE DURATION OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH...SO EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OUR AREA IN DEFERENCE TO THE CANADIAN...BUT WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR NORTH.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ABSENCE OF A
RENEWED ARCTIC SURGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
AGAIN...INSTEAD STAYING NEAR NORMAL. INDEED...TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN FOR A TIME
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORMATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 032059
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
259 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BY
3 PM. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WILL BE AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE IT
WILL ONLY REACH CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...
ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AT OUR TYPICAL WARMER
SPOTS. CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT 500 MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE
EAST AND PAIR WITH A RIDGE TENTATIVELY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WEST COAST TO RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR AND MORE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF SPLIT FLOW
AS THE DISPLACED WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE NEWEST ARCTIC AIR MASS TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST
BY NAEFS TO BRING 850 MB TEMPS TO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE AND BELOW
THE 3RD PERCENTILE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SUBZERO LOWS. HOW LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CAN GO WILL BE
DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COMES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED EAST ALONG
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANY LAKE EFFECT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS THE STATUS OF THE
WINDS. CALM WINDS WOULD PROVIDE FOR LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES...BUT
WOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ENOUGH WINDS WOULD ARREST TEMPERATURES FALLS TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT WOULD MAKE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE AREA CREATING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THERE
IS A TENDENCY FOR WINDS IN THE COLDEST AREA TO GO SLACK. WITH
THIS...AM OPTING FOR COLDER LOWS AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO MAKE WIND CHILL HEADLINES A NECESSITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING BY THROUGH ILLINOIS THURSDAY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY. THOUGH THE EMERGENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTION OF WARM AIR...IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE COLD START MEANS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ON THE ORDER OF 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL AGAIN BE DOWN AROUND THE ZERO MARK
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE STRONGER SW WINDS WILL BOLSTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BRING MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS...AND INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. INDEED...THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
CARRY FRIDAY HIGHS TO LEVELS APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
A MUCH DICIER PROPOSITION. THE GEM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
STRING OF SHORTWAVES AND DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT IN THIS AREA AND KEEPS
SNOW FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ANOTHER MODEST CLIPPER TOWARDS
THE AREA. THE GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRIVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WHILE THE EURO FALLS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AS A BIT
OF A COMPROMISE. IN ANY CASE...JET STREAKS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
DO APPEAR TO SET UP MUCH MORE FAVORABLY THAN WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM...MAKING THE IDEA OF SNOW MORE PALATABLE FOR SUNDAY. THE
GEM SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE FEATURES ALOFT...SO THE
FORECAST NOW LEANS TO THE EURO/GFS AND KEEPS POPS RELATIVELY LOW.

FINALLY...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN AND ONE LAST SHOT AT UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS
RANGE...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY. LIKE PREVIOUS WAVES...THE CANADIAN IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A DECENT JET STRUCTURE AND SOME
FRONTOGENESIS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR
MORE LIGHT SNOW. THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING
THE BEST JET STRUCTURE LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE CLIPPERS RESTRICTING THE DURATION OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH...SO EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OUR AREA IN DEFERENCE TO THE CANADIAN...BUT WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR NORTH.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ABSENCE OF A
RENEWED ARCTIC SURGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
AGAIN...INSTEAD STAYING NEAR NORMAL. INDEED...TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN FOR A TIME
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORMATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 032059
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
259 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BY
3 PM. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WILL BE AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE IT
WILL ONLY REACH CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...
ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AT OUR TYPICAL WARMER
SPOTS. CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT 500 MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE
EAST AND PAIR WITH A RIDGE TENTATIVELY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE WEST COAST TO RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR AND MORE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF SPLIT FLOW
AS THE DISPLACED WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE NEWEST ARCTIC AIR MASS TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST
BY NAEFS TO BRING 850 MB TEMPS TO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE AND BELOW
THE 3RD PERCENTILE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SUBZERO LOWS. HOW LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CAN GO WILL BE
DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COMES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED EAST ALONG
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANY LAKE EFFECT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS THE STATUS OF THE
WINDS. CALM WINDS WOULD PROVIDE FOR LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES...BUT
WOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ENOUGH WINDS WOULD ARREST TEMPERATURES FALLS TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT WOULD MAKE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE AREA CREATING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THERE
IS A TENDENCY FOR WINDS IN THE COLDEST AREA TO GO SLACK. WITH
THIS...AM OPTING FOR COLDER LOWS AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO MAKE WIND CHILL HEADLINES A NECESSITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING BY THROUGH ILLINOIS THURSDAY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST EARLY TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY. THOUGH THE EMERGENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTION OF WARM AIR...IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE COLD START MEANS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND ON THE ORDER OF 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL AGAIN BE DOWN AROUND THE ZERO MARK
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FIRST
OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE STRONGER SW WINDS WILL BOLSTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BRING MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS...AND INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. INDEED...THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
CARRY FRIDAY HIGHS TO LEVELS APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
A MUCH DICIER PROPOSITION. THE GEM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
STRING OF SHORTWAVES AND DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE DOWNPLAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT IN THIS AREA AND KEEPS
SNOW FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ANOTHER MODEST CLIPPER TOWARDS
THE AREA. THE GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRIVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WHILE THE EURO FALLS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AS A BIT
OF A COMPROMISE. IN ANY CASE...JET STREAKS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
DO APPEAR TO SET UP MUCH MORE FAVORABLY THAN WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM...MAKING THE IDEA OF SNOW MORE PALATABLE FOR SUNDAY. THE
GEM SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE FEATURES ALOFT...SO THE
FORECAST NOW LEANS TO THE EURO/GFS AND KEEPS POPS RELATIVELY LOW.

FINALLY...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN AND ONE LAST SHOT AT UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS
RANGE...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY. LIKE PREVIOUS WAVES...THE CANADIAN IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A DECENT JET STRUCTURE AND SOME
FRONTOGENESIS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR
MORE LIGHT SNOW. THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING
THE BEST JET STRUCTURE LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE CLIPPERS RESTRICTING THE DURATION OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH...SO EVEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OUR AREA IN DEFERENCE TO THE CANADIAN...BUT WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR NORTH.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ABSENCE OF A
RENEWED ARCTIC SURGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
AGAIN...INSTEAD STAYING NEAR NORMAL. INDEED...TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN FOR A TIME
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORMATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 031808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1208 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING NOT SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ADVISORY
SO FAR.  BRUNT OF THE WAA PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER INCREASING BAND OF
SNOW WAS OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA. THE DRY
REGION BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF FORCING IS LARGE AND MAY
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS OVER. PROGS STILL SUGGEST WAA CLIPS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT THE WINDOW OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SHRINKING. THE
UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS MORNING AND MAY BE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH...BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. WILL CONSIDER
LOWERING SNOW AMOUNTS WITH AN UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRIMARY ISSUES TODAY ARE SNOW AMOUNTS AND TRENDS AND THEN COLDER
WEATHER LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A 850 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY DYNAMICS OF WAA...FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET AND THE BETTER SNOW GROWTH REGION ARE DISPLACED ACROSS
THE REGION.

FIRST BAND OF SNOW LIFTING NORTHWARD RUNNING INTO THE DRY AIR
MASS AND A PORTION OF THE MOISTURE USED FOR SATURATION. DID
PRODUCE A MINOR ACCUM DURING PASSAGE. AT 09Z...RADARS TO THE
SOUTH SHOWING A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND IOWA. BUT RETURNS ARE INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE 850 WARM FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
AREA OF PCPN OVER ILLINOIS IS ALSO LOOKING RATHER CONVECTIVE WITH
A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW BEING REPORTED AT DVN.
THIS CONVECTIVE REGION OF PCPN WAS GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND AT
PRESENT RATE WILL BE BRUSHING PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
DAYBREAK. THIS 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO INCREASE SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND CONTINUE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...SO IF THIS INITIAL BAND
HOLDS TOGETHER...WILL AFFECT MAINLY EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE THE BETTER FORCING OF THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH ALSO PROVIDES A LARGER SNOW
GROWTH REGION COMPARED TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE VARIOUS DYNAMICS IN PLAY...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY VARY WITH THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.

THE PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...ITS POSSIBLE THE GOING ADVISORY
COULD BE DROPPED A BIT EARLIER THAN 6 PM.

WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A TAD TODAY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE GUID LEVELS. COLDER AIR ON
ITS WAY TONIGHT WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS READINGS DOWN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM. DUE TO ONGOING
HEADLINES...LATER SHIFTS TODAY CAN REEVALUATE FOR A HEADLINE WHILE
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

POSITIVE-TILTED LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS AT THE ONSET...
WL MOVE INTO THE ERN CONUS BY THU. A NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY
DUE TO UPR RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SPLIT WITH THE MORE ACTIVE SRN BRANCH TAKING MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
TO OUR SOUTH. WEAKER NRN BRANCH MAY BRING A WEAK SYSTEM INTO WI THIS
WEEKEND...BUT PCPN AMOUNTS OVERALL TO BE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
FCST TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THU NGT WITH SOME MODERATION EXPECTED
BY THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

ARCTIC AIR MASS TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NGT WITH 8H TEMPS
TO BE IN THE -20 TO -25C RANGE. EXACTLY HOW COLD WE CAN GET WL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE CLOUDS AS THE LONGWAVE TROF TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WL BE COUNTERED BY AN AREA OF HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. SINCE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE TO
HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EAST BY THE DEPARTED WINTER STORM...HARD TO SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS (OTHER THAN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM
SUPERIOR OVER N-CNTRL WI). THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NGT
WITH SUB-ZERO MIN TEMPS AND ENUF WIND SUCH THAT WIND CHILL HEADLINES
MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

THE LONGWAVE TROF SHIFTS EAST ON THU...ALLOWING FOR THE SFC HI
(CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY) TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR
WI. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW DURING THE DAY
ADN EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THU WL BE A COLD DAY WITH TEMPS A
GOOD 20 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE READINGS ONLY IN
THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

AS THE SFC HI MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MON NGT...THE
PREVAILING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI.
8H TEMPS WL RISE INTO THE -6 TO -12C RANGE BY DAYBREAK AND WITH THE
MODELS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE (CLOUDS)...TEMPS COULD
EASILY REACH MINS IN THE EVENING AND SLOWLY RISE THEREAFTER. THESE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND THE AREA THRU FRI...ESPECIALLY AS
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. ANY LIFT/FORCING APPEARS
TOO WEAK TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
THE WAA PATTERN TO CONT INTO FRI AS 8H TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -1 TO
-6C RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LWR 30S OVER
MUCH OF NE WI.

AS THE CDFNT SLIDES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...THERE MIGHT BE ENUF LIFT
PROVIDED TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO PUSH
INTO NE WI. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER...THUS IF
ANY SNOW DOES FALL...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. SAT SHOULD
BE A QUIET DAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT...MAX TEMPS ON SAT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO FRI`S READINGS MAINLY DUE TO THE MILDER START
TO THE DAY.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND WL BE THE MOVEMENT
OF A MODEST CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE
GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW TRACKING
FARTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER MODELS AND IT ALSO HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS A BIT
WEAKER WITH BOTH THE SFC LOW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROF. DEPENDING ON
THE FINAL TRACK THE SFC LOW TAKES...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT WL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN IN THE VICINITY...MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY EDGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST OF NE WI IN THE
MID TO UPR 30S.

WEAK RDG OF HI PRES QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS WI SUNDAY NGT AND THEN
MORE TIMING QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ON MON. TOO FAR
OUT YET TO MAKE A DETERMINATION...THUS HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA DRY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF VILAS CNTY TO A PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT. MAX
TEMPS BY MON TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S
OVER THE WARMER LOCATIONS OF CNTRL WI (WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN FOR A TIME
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORMATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 031808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1208 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING NOT SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ADVISORY
SO FAR.  BRUNT OF THE WAA PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER INCREASING BAND OF
SNOW WAS OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA. THE DRY
REGION BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF FORCING IS LARGE AND MAY
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS OVER. PROGS STILL SUGGEST WAA CLIPS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT THE WINDOW OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SHRINKING. THE
UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS MORNING AND MAY BE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH...BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. WILL CONSIDER
LOWERING SNOW AMOUNTS WITH AN UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRIMARY ISSUES TODAY ARE SNOW AMOUNTS AND TRENDS AND THEN COLDER
WEATHER LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A 850 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY DYNAMICS OF WAA...FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET AND THE BETTER SNOW GROWTH REGION ARE DISPLACED ACROSS
THE REGION.

FIRST BAND OF SNOW LIFTING NORTHWARD RUNNING INTO THE DRY AIR
MASS AND A PORTION OF THE MOISTURE USED FOR SATURATION. DID
PRODUCE A MINOR ACCUM DURING PASSAGE. AT 09Z...RADARS TO THE
SOUTH SHOWING A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND IOWA. BUT RETURNS ARE INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE 850 WARM FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
AREA OF PCPN OVER ILLINOIS IS ALSO LOOKING RATHER CONVECTIVE WITH
A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW BEING REPORTED AT DVN.
THIS CONVECTIVE REGION OF PCPN WAS GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND AT
PRESENT RATE WILL BE BRUSHING PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
DAYBREAK. THIS 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO INCREASE SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND CONTINUE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...SO IF THIS INITIAL BAND
HOLDS TOGETHER...WILL AFFECT MAINLY EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE THE BETTER FORCING OF THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH ALSO PROVIDES A LARGER SNOW
GROWTH REGION COMPARED TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE VARIOUS DYNAMICS IN PLAY...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY VARY WITH THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.

THE PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...ITS POSSIBLE THE GOING ADVISORY
COULD BE DROPPED A BIT EARLIER THAN 6 PM.

WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A TAD TODAY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE GUID LEVELS. COLDER AIR ON
ITS WAY TONIGHT WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS READINGS DOWN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM. DUE TO ONGOING
HEADLINES...LATER SHIFTS TODAY CAN REEVALUATE FOR A HEADLINE WHILE
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

POSITIVE-TILTED LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS AT THE ONSET...
WL MOVE INTO THE ERN CONUS BY THU. A NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY
DUE TO UPR RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SPLIT WITH THE MORE ACTIVE SRN BRANCH TAKING MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
TO OUR SOUTH. WEAKER NRN BRANCH MAY BRING A WEAK SYSTEM INTO WI THIS
WEEKEND...BUT PCPN AMOUNTS OVERALL TO BE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
FCST TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THU NGT WITH SOME MODERATION EXPECTED
BY THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

ARCTIC AIR MASS TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NGT WITH 8H TEMPS
TO BE IN THE -20 TO -25C RANGE. EXACTLY HOW COLD WE CAN GET WL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE CLOUDS AS THE LONGWAVE TROF TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WL BE COUNTERED BY AN AREA OF HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. SINCE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE TO
HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EAST BY THE DEPARTED WINTER STORM...HARD TO SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS (OTHER THAN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM
SUPERIOR OVER N-CNTRL WI). THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A VERY COLD NGT
WITH SUB-ZERO MIN TEMPS AND ENUF WIND SUCH THAT WIND CHILL HEADLINES
MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

THE LONGWAVE TROF SHIFTS EAST ON THU...ALLOWING FOR THE SFC HI
(CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY) TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR
WI. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW DURING THE DAY
ADN EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THU WL BE A COLD DAY WITH TEMPS A
GOOD 20 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE READINGS ONLY IN
THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

AS THE SFC HI MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MON NGT...THE
PREVAILING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A SURGE OF WAA INTO WI.
8H TEMPS WL RISE INTO THE -6 TO -12C RANGE BY DAYBREAK AND WITH THE
MODELS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE (CLOUDS)...TEMPS COULD
EASILY REACH MINS IN THE EVENING AND SLOWLY RISE THEREAFTER. THESE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND THE AREA THRU FRI...ESPECIALLY AS
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. ANY LIFT/FORCING APPEARS
TOO WEAK TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST.
THE WAA PATTERN TO CONT INTO FRI AS 8H TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -1 TO
-6C RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LWR 30S OVER
MUCH OF NE WI.

AS THE CDFNT SLIDES ACROSS WI FRI NGT...THERE MIGHT BE ENUF LIFT
PROVIDED TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO PUSH
INTO NE WI. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER...THUS IF
ANY SNOW DOES FALL...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. SAT SHOULD
BE A QUIET DAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT...MAX TEMPS ON SAT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO FRI`S READINGS MAINLY DUE TO THE MILDER START
TO THE DAY.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND WL BE THE MOVEMENT
OF A MODEST CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE
GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW TRACKING
FARTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER MODELS AND IT ALSO HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS A BIT
WEAKER WITH BOTH THE SFC LOW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROF. DEPENDING ON
THE FINAL TRACK THE SFC LOW TAKES...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT WL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN IN THE VICINITY...MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY EDGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST OF NE WI IN THE
MID TO UPR 30S.

WEAK RDG OF HI PRES QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS WI SUNDAY NGT AND THEN
MORE TIMING QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ON MON. TOO FAR
OUT YET TO MAKE A DETERMINATION...THUS HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA DRY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF VILAS CNTY TO A PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT. MAX
TEMPS BY MON TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 30S
OVER THE WARMER LOCATIONS OF CNTRL WI (WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN FOR A TIME
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORMATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







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