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000
FXUS63 KGRB 280841
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
341 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LARGE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
GRADUALLY WORKING NORTH. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A
REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE WHERE PWATS CLIMB TO 2.00 INCHES AND 850
WARM FRONT. THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL WORK INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATER TODAY AND THEN STATEWIDE OVERNIGHT TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TREND OF MODELS HAS BEEN
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
THIS EVENING DUE TO INITIALLY DRY FEED OF AIR FROM DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE. BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL BE
DRIVEN WITH THE APPROACHING H850 WARM FRONT WHICH EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH THE CONVECTION BRIEFLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDES OVER AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MORE CONVECTION. AS
FAR AS UPPER JET SUPPORT...BETTER LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIAL SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT
WITH THE INCREASING DEEPER MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. A BIT BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY AS THE
MID TROUGH APPROACHES TO PRODUCE MORE LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND GOING HEADLINES SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

WILL DOWNPLAY THE TSRA INITIALLY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL FOCUS CONVECTION IN THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THE 850 FRONT.
EXPANDED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN
BIT MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADING NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE 850 WARM
FRONT.

FOR THE START OF THE TODAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AT 6000-7000 FEET AS PER 00Z GRB SOUNDING WITH
FOLLOW UP BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTING THESE CLOUDS
MAY LINGER AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

NO CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A LARGE TROUGH TO SET UP OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK.  FIRST FOR THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS AND GEM ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND A
LITTLE FASTER.  CONSIDERING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
QUICKER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE ECMWF.  WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO AGREE PRETTY WELL WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH ON MONDAY.  WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FGEN WILL INCREASE WHILE PWATS WILL CLIMB JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES.  AS
A RESULT...THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE RAIN WILL PUSH OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE EAST...BUT CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM.  IF CLEARING DOES OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY
BE AN ISSUE AFTER ALL OF THE RAINFALL.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  SINCE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION...THINK THE
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.  WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.  THE NEXT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT LOOK VERY GOOD ONCE AGAIN.  SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
LLJ WILL TRY TO ADVECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME WHICH WOULD CREATE A CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT.  A
LITTLE TOO EARLY YET FOR THESE SORTS OF DETAILS BUT DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH.  PRECIP WILL END WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY.  HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SEE A WARMING
TREND BEGIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR LATE EVENING THEN EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND SCATTERED IFR
VSBYS IN FOG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT/VRB
WIND. FOG DISSIPATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THURS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO RAIN WILL BE AFTER 21Z THURSDAY...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
LATER THURSDAY EVENING...ESP AFTER 03Z.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TWO
PERIODS OF RAIN LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY. ROUND ONE WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM FRONT WORKING NORTHWARD. INSTABILITY NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT THE ONSET BUT LIGHT WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT A SLOWER
STORM MOVEMENT. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE RATE OF THIS NORTHERN
FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS TO IF THEIR WILL BE A BREAK FOR MOST AREAS.
BLEND OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS MAY FALL OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT ANTICIPATE RAIN TO BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ESF THIS MORNING BUT CONSIDERATION OF A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH LATER SHIFTS IF FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTS THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRST ROUND.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......JKL
HYDROLOGY......TDH









000
FXUS63 KGRB 280841
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
341 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LARGE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
GRADUALLY WORKING NORTH. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A
REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE WHERE PWATS CLIMB TO 2.00 INCHES AND 850
WARM FRONT. THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL WORK INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATER TODAY AND THEN STATEWIDE OVERNIGHT TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TREND OF MODELS HAS BEEN
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
THIS EVENING DUE TO INITIALLY DRY FEED OF AIR FROM DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE. BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL BE
DRIVEN WITH THE APPROACHING H850 WARM FRONT WHICH EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH THE CONVECTION BRIEFLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDES OVER AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MORE CONVECTION. AS
FAR AS UPPER JET SUPPORT...BETTER LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIAL SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT
WITH THE INCREASING DEEPER MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. A BIT BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY AS THE
MID TROUGH APPROACHES TO PRODUCE MORE LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND GOING HEADLINES SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

WILL DOWNPLAY THE TSRA INITIALLY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL FOCUS CONVECTION IN THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THE 850 FRONT.
EXPANDED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN
BIT MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADING NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE 850 WARM
FRONT.

FOR THE START OF THE TODAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AT 6000-7000 FEET AS PER 00Z GRB SOUNDING WITH
FOLLOW UP BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTING THESE CLOUDS
MAY LINGER AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

NO CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A LARGE TROUGH TO SET UP OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK.  FIRST FOR THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS AND GEM ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND A
LITTLE FASTER.  CONSIDERING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
QUICKER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE ECMWF.  WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO AGREE PRETTY WELL WITH
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH ON MONDAY.  WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FGEN WILL INCREASE WHILE PWATS WILL CLIMB JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES.  AS
A RESULT...THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE RAIN WILL PUSH OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE EAST...BUT CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM.  IF CLEARING DOES OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY
BE AN ISSUE AFTER ALL OF THE RAINFALL.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.  SINCE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION...THINK THE
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.  WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.  THE NEXT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT LOOK VERY GOOD ONCE AGAIN.  SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
LLJ WILL TRY TO ADVECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME WHICH WOULD CREATE A CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT.  A
LITTLE TOO EARLY YET FOR THESE SORTS OF DETAILS BUT DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH.  PRECIP WILL END WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY.  HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SEE A WARMING
TREND BEGIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR LATE EVENING THEN EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND SCATTERED IFR
VSBYS IN FOG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT/VRB
WIND. FOG DISSIPATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THURS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO RAIN WILL BE AFTER 21Z THURSDAY...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
LATER THURSDAY EVENING...ESP AFTER 03Z.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TWO
PERIODS OF RAIN LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY. ROUND ONE WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM FRONT WORKING NORTHWARD. INSTABILITY NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT THE ONSET BUT LIGHT WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT A SLOWER
STORM MOVEMENT. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE RATE OF THIS NORTHERN
FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS TO IF THEIR WILL BE A BREAK FOR MOST AREAS.
BLEND OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS MAY FALL OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT ANTICIPATE RAIN TO BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ESF THIS MORNING BUT CONSIDERATION OF A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH LATER SHIFTS IF FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTS THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRST ROUND.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......JKL
HYDROLOGY......TDH










000
FXUS63 KGRB 280330
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1030 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH...THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250MB JET...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM
ADVECTION WITH AN 850MB JET...AND A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM.

CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND THE 15Z SREF ALL KEPT QPF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SPREADING IT NORTHEAST BETWEEN
18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. MOST OF THEM DO NOT HAVE QPF COVERING
THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...CONFINING
CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING BUT MOSTLY
HOLDING OFF RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SHOWED NO MORE THAN DOUBLE DIGIT CAPE
VALUES ON FRIDAY SO HAVE USED MOSTLY SHOWERS WORDING WITH A
MENTION OF CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ONCE THE RAIN
GETS STARTED.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT
WINDS...AND 40S AND 50S DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HAVE DETAILED THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THU NGT THROUGH SAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. THE MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREV
FCST WERE TO SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPAND THE ESF FARTHER
NORTH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.

LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE CWA SATURDAY EVG...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND S/W TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND PRODUCE ANOTHER SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF IT...SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
A CONCERN. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KTS) AND MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE...BUT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR LATE EVENING THEN EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND SCATTERED IFR
VSBYS IN FOG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT/VRB
WIND. FOG DISSIPATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THURS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO RAIN WILL BE AFTER 21Z THURSDAY...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
LATER THURSDAY EVENING...ESP AFTER 03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 C OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW- LEVEL JET ASCENDING THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL WI LATE
THU AFT/EVG...AND THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
A SLOW MOVG SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND RRQ OF UPPER JET AIDING IN
PCPN DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT IS LOW. OVERALL...MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORT THE SFC LOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFTING INTO OUR SE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...SO SUSPECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO OUR SE COUNTIES. RIVER LEVELS
ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...SO FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME. WILL UPDATE THE ESF PRODUCT...EXPANDING IT TO COVER THE ENTIRE
CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JKL
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 280330
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1030 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH...THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250MB JET...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM
ADVECTION WITH AN 850MB JET...AND A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM.

CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND THE 15Z SREF ALL KEPT QPF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SPREADING IT NORTHEAST BETWEEN
18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. MOST OF THEM DO NOT HAVE QPF COVERING
THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...CONFINING
CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING BUT MOSTLY
HOLDING OFF RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SHOWED NO MORE THAN DOUBLE DIGIT CAPE
VALUES ON FRIDAY SO HAVE USED MOSTLY SHOWERS WORDING WITH A
MENTION OF CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ONCE THE RAIN
GETS STARTED.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT
WINDS...AND 40S AND 50S DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HAVE DETAILED THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THU NGT THROUGH SAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. THE MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREV
FCST WERE TO SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPAND THE ESF FARTHER
NORTH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.

LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE CWA SATURDAY EVG...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND S/W TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND PRODUCE ANOTHER SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF IT...SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
A CONCERN. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KTS) AND MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE...BUT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR LATE EVENING THEN EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND SCATTERED IFR
VSBYS IN FOG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT/VRB
WIND. FOG DISSIPATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THURS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO RAIN WILL BE AFTER 21Z THURSDAY...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
LATER THURSDAY EVENING...ESP AFTER 03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 C OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW- LEVEL JET ASCENDING THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL WI LATE
THU AFT/EVG...AND THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
A SLOW MOVG SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND RRQ OF UPPER JET AIDING IN
PCPN DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT IS LOW. OVERALL...MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORT THE SFC LOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFTING INTO OUR SE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...SO SUSPECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO OUR SE COUNTIES. RIVER LEVELS
ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...SO FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME. WILL UPDATE THE ESF PRODUCT...EXPANDING IT TO COVER THE ENTIRE
CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JKL
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 272324
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
624 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH...THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250MB JET...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM
ADVECTION WITH AN 850MB JET...AND A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM.

CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND THE 15Z SREF ALL KEPT QPF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SPREADING IT NORTHEAST BETWEEN
18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. MOST OF THEM DO NOT HAVE QPF COVERING
THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...CONFINING
CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING BUT MOSTLY
HOLDING OFF RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SHOWED NO MORE THAN DOUBLE DIGIT CAPE
VALUES ON FRIDAY SO HAVE USED MOSTLY SHOWERS WORDING WITH A
MENTION OF CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ONCE THE RAIN
GETS STARTED.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT
WINDS...AND 40S AND 50S DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HAVE DETAILED THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THU NGT THROUGH SAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. THE MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREV
FCST WERE TO SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPAND THE ESF FARTHER
NORTH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.

LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE CWA SATURDAY EVG...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND S/W TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND PRODUCE ANOTHER SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF IT...SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
A CONCERN. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KTS) AND MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE...BUT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND
SCATTERED IFR VSBYS IN FOG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND
LIGHT/VRB WIND. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN WILL BE
AFTER 21Z THURSDAY...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY
EVENING...AFTER 03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 C OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW- LEVEL JET ASCENDING THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL WI LATE
THU AFT/EVG...AND THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
A SLOW MOVG SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND RRQ OF UPPER JET AIDING IN
PCPN DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT IS LOW. OVERALL...MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORT THE SFC LOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFTING INTO OUR SE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...SO SUSPECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO OUR SE COUNTIES. RIVER LEVELS
ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...SO FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME. WILL UPDATE THE ESF PRODUCT...EXPANDING IT TO COVER THE ENTIRE
CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JKL
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 272324
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
624 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH...THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250MB JET...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM
ADVECTION WITH AN 850MB JET...AND A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM.

CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND THE 15Z SREF ALL KEPT QPF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SPREADING IT NORTHEAST BETWEEN
18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. MOST OF THEM DO NOT HAVE QPF COVERING
THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...CONFINING
CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING BUT MOSTLY
HOLDING OFF RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SHOWED NO MORE THAN DOUBLE DIGIT CAPE
VALUES ON FRIDAY SO HAVE USED MOSTLY SHOWERS WORDING WITH A
MENTION OF CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ONCE THE RAIN
GETS STARTED.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT
WINDS...AND 40S AND 50S DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HAVE DETAILED THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THU NGT THROUGH SAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. THE MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREV
FCST WERE TO SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPAND THE ESF FARTHER
NORTH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.

LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE CWA SATURDAY EVG...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND S/W TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND PRODUCE ANOTHER SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF IT...SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
A CONCERN. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KTS) AND MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE...BUT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND
SCATTERED IFR VSBYS IN FOG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND
LIGHT/VRB WIND. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN WILL BE
AFTER 21Z THURSDAY...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY
EVENING...AFTER 03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 C OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW- LEVEL JET ASCENDING THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL WI LATE
THU AFT/EVG...AND THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
A SLOW MOVG SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND RRQ OF UPPER JET AIDING IN
PCPN DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT IS LOW. OVERALL...MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORT THE SFC LOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFTING INTO OUR SE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...SO SUSPECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO OUR SE COUNTIES. RIVER LEVELS
ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...SO FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME. WILL UPDATE THE ESF PRODUCT...EXPANDING IT TO COVER THE ENTIRE
CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JKL
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH









000
FXUS63 KGRB 272013
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH...THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250MB JET...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM
ADVECTION WITH AN 850MB JET...AND A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM.

CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND THE 15Z SREF ALL KEPT QPF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SPREADING IT NORTHEAST BETWEEN
18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. MOST OF THEM DO NOT HAVE QPF COVERING
THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...CONFINING
CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING BUT MOSTLY
HOLDING OFF RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SHOWED NO MORE THAN DOUBLE DIGIT CAPE
VALUES ON FRIDAY SO HAVE USED MOSTLY SHOWERS WORDING WITH A
MENTION OF CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ONCE THE RAIN
GETS STARTED.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT
WINDS...AND 40S AND 50S DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HAVE DETAILED THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THU NGT THROUGH SAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. THE MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREV
FCST WERE TO SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPAND THE ESF FARTHER
NORTH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.

LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE CWA SATURDAY EVG...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND S/W TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND PRODUCE ANOTHER SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF IT...SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
A CONCERN. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KTS) AND MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE...BUT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CIGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3000-4000FT RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH CU GENERALLY BREAKING UP AND HIGHER CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND SCATTERED IFR...VSBYS IN FOG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
RIDGE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AS IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 C OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW- LEVEL JET ASCENDING THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL WI LATE
THU AFT/EVG...AND THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
A SLOW MOVG SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND RRQ OF UPPER JET AIDING IN
PCPN DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT IS LOW. OVERALL...MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORT THE SFC LOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFTING INTO OUR SE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...SO SUSPECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO OUR SE COUNTIES. RIVER LEVELS
ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...SO FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME. WILL UPDATE THE ESF PRODUCT...EXPANDING IT TO COVER THE ENTIRE
CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 272013
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH...THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250MB JET...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM
ADVECTION WITH AN 850MB JET...AND A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM.

CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND THE 15Z SREF ALL KEPT QPF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SPREADING IT NORTHEAST BETWEEN
18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. MOST OF THEM DO NOT HAVE QPF COVERING
THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...CONFINING
CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING BUT MOSTLY
HOLDING OFF RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SHOWED NO MORE THAN DOUBLE DIGIT CAPE
VALUES ON FRIDAY SO HAVE USED MOSTLY SHOWERS WORDING WITH A
MENTION OF CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ONCE THE RAIN
GETS STARTED.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT
WINDS...AND 40S AND 50S DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HAVE DETAILED THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THU NGT THROUGH SAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. THE MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREV
FCST WERE TO SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPAND THE ESF FARTHER
NORTH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.

LINGERING PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE CWA SATURDAY EVG...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND S/W TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND PRODUCE ANOTHER SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF IT...SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
A CONCERN. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KTS) AND MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE...BUT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CIGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3000-4000FT RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH CU GENERALLY BREAKING UP AND HIGHER CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND SCATTERED IFR...VSBYS IN FOG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
RIDGE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AS IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 C OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW- LEVEL JET ASCENDING THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL WI LATE
THU AFT/EVG...AND THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
A SLOW MOVG SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND RRQ OF UPPER JET AIDING IN
PCPN DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT IS LOW. OVERALL...MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORT THE SFC LOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFTING INTO OUR SE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...SO SUSPECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO OUR SE COUNTIES. RIVER LEVELS
ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...SO FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME. WILL UPDATE THE ESF PRODUCT...EXPANDING IT TO COVER THE ENTIRE
CWA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 271756
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1256 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WISCONSIN.
WILL ADJUST SHOWERS COVERAGE TO SCATTERED TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS
PER AREA RADARS. EARLY ESTIMATE OF THE TIMING OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE SHORT WAVE AXIS REACHES THE GRB AREA
AROUND 12Z. AS A RESULT MAY NEED TO HANG ONTO A SHOWER MENTION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FOX RIVER AND
LAKE WINNEBAGO.

AFTER A PERIOD OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REASSERTS ITSELF AGAIN UNDER BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. FOG IS LIKELY
BACK IN THE PICTURE WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

CLOUDS TO BE IN THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT AND INCREASING PWATS FROM
THE DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE OVER THE MID MISS REGION. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT THE PATTERN WILL START
OUT AS SPLIT FLOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.  THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS.  THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST EJECTING A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SIDES WITH THE GFS AND
WILL SIDE THAT DIRECTION UNLESS THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAKE A DRASTIC
CHANGE.  THE ECMWF WILL WORK FOR LATER PERIODS THOUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PROMOTE A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.  GOOD FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK
AND FGEN ALONG THE NOSE OF A MODEST 30 KT LLJ WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR A POSSIBLE MCS.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT
HOWEVER...AND CAN ONLY FIND A 200-400 J/KG ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.  BUT
EVEN THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...PWATS WILL BE REACHING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT.  BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE 850MB WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR DOOR COUNTY FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HANG AROUND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE MCS FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
REDEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN BE LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEAR POSSIBLE.  A DRY PERIOD COULD THEN FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.  THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CIGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3000-4000FT RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH CU GENERALLY BREAKING UP AND HIGHER CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND SCATTERED IFR...VSBYS IN FOG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
RIDGE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AS IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO 2.00 INCHES WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER SOUTH HALF
OF THE STATE. H850 FRONT LIFTING NORTH LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WHILE A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TIED TO A 850 LOW ALONG WITH A BIT MORE
UPPER JET SUPPORT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.
POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH BOTH EVENTS...AND QUITE POSSIBLE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PERIOD THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY EVENING COULD RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES TO NEARLY 4 INCHES.
EVEN THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE A BREAK WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AS OF WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE AN
ESF FOR RISING RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ITS ALSO
POSSIBLE A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FIRST EVENT SATURATES
THE GROUND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG
HYDROLOGY......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 271756
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1256 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WISCONSIN.
WILL ADJUST SHOWERS COVERAGE TO SCATTERED TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS
PER AREA RADARS. EARLY ESTIMATE OF THE TIMING OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE SHORT WAVE AXIS REACHES THE GRB AREA
AROUND 12Z. AS A RESULT MAY NEED TO HANG ONTO A SHOWER MENTION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FOX RIVER AND
LAKE WINNEBAGO.

AFTER A PERIOD OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REASSERTS ITSELF AGAIN UNDER BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. FOG IS LIKELY
BACK IN THE PICTURE WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

CLOUDS TO BE IN THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT AND INCREASING PWATS FROM
THE DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE OVER THE MID MISS REGION. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT THE PATTERN WILL START
OUT AS SPLIT FLOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.  THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS.  THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST EJECTING A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SIDES WITH THE GFS AND
WILL SIDE THAT DIRECTION UNLESS THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAKE A DRASTIC
CHANGE.  THE ECMWF WILL WORK FOR LATER PERIODS THOUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PROMOTE A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.  GOOD FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK
AND FGEN ALONG THE NOSE OF A MODEST 30 KT LLJ WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR A POSSIBLE MCS.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT
HOWEVER...AND CAN ONLY FIND A 200-400 J/KG ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.  BUT
EVEN THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...PWATS WILL BE REACHING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT.  BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE 850MB WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR DOOR COUNTY FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HANG AROUND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE MCS FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
REDEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN BE LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEAR POSSIBLE.  A DRY PERIOD COULD THEN FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.  THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CIGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3000-4000FT RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH CU GENERALLY BREAKING UP AND HIGHER CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...AND SCATTERED IFR...VSBYS IN FOG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
RIDGE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AS IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO 2.00 INCHES WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER SOUTH HALF
OF THE STATE. H850 FRONT LIFTING NORTH LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WHILE A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TIED TO A 850 LOW ALONG WITH A BIT MORE
UPPER JET SUPPORT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.
POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH BOTH EVENTS...AND QUITE POSSIBLE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PERIOD THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY EVENING COULD RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES TO NEARLY 4 INCHES.
EVEN THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE A BREAK WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AS OF WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE AN
ESF FOR RISING RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ITS ALSO
POSSIBLE A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FIRST EVENT SATURATES
THE GROUND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 271105
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
605 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WISCONSIN.
WILL ADJUST SHOWERS COVERAGE TO SCATTERED TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS
PER AREA RADARS. EARLY ESTIMATE OF THE TIMING OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE SHORT WAVE AXIS REACHES THE GRB AREA
AROUND 12Z. AS A RESULT MAY NEED TO HANG ONTO A SHOWER MENTION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FOX RIVER AND
LAKE WINNEBAGO.

AFTER A PERIOD OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REASSERTS ITSELF AGAIN UNDER BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. FOG IS LIKELY
BACK IN THE PICTURE WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

CLOUDS TO BE IN THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT AND INCREASING PWATS FROM
THE DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE OVER THE MID MISS REGION. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT THE PATTERN WILL START
OUT AS SPLIT FLOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.  THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS.  THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST EJECTING A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SIDES WITH THE GFS AND
WILL SIDE THAT DIRECTION UNLESS THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAKE A DRASTIC
CHANGE.  THE ECMWF WILL WORK FOR LATER PERIODS THOUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PROMOTE A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.  GOOD FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK
AND FGEN ALONG THE NOSE OF A MODEST 30 KT LLJ WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR A POSSIBLE MCS.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT
HOWEVER...AND CAN ONLY FIND A 200-400 J/KG ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.  BUT
EVEN THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...PWATS WILL BE REACHING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT.  BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE 850MB WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR DOOR COUNTY FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HANG AROUND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE MCS FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
REDEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN BE LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEAR POSSIBLE.  A DRY PERIOD COULD THEN FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.  THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WERE FALLING OUT OF A VFR OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO 2.00 INCHES WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER SOUTH HALF
OF THE STATE. H850 FRONT LIFTING NORTH LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WHILE A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TIED TO A 850 LOW ALONG WITH A BIT MORE
UPPER JET SUPPORT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.
POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH BOTH EVENTS...AND QUITE POSSIBLE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PERIOD THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY EVENING COULD RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES TO NEARLY 4 INCHES.
EVEN THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE A BREAK WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AS OF WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE AN
ESF FOR RISING RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ITS ALSO
POSSIBLE A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FIRST EVENT SATURATES
THE GROUND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 271105
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
605 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WISCONSIN.
WILL ADJUST SHOWERS COVERAGE TO SCATTERED TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS
PER AREA RADARS. EARLY ESTIMATE OF THE TIMING OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE SHORT WAVE AXIS REACHES THE GRB AREA
AROUND 12Z. AS A RESULT MAY NEED TO HANG ONTO A SHOWER MENTION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FOX RIVER AND
LAKE WINNEBAGO.

AFTER A PERIOD OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REASSERTS ITSELF AGAIN UNDER BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. FOG IS LIKELY
BACK IN THE PICTURE WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

CLOUDS TO BE IN THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT AND INCREASING PWATS FROM
THE DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE OVER THE MID MISS REGION. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT THE PATTERN WILL START
OUT AS SPLIT FLOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.  THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS.  THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST EJECTING A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SIDES WITH THE GFS AND
WILL SIDE THAT DIRECTION UNLESS THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAKE A DRASTIC
CHANGE.  THE ECMWF WILL WORK FOR LATER PERIODS THOUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PROMOTE A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.  GOOD FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK
AND FGEN ALONG THE NOSE OF A MODEST 30 KT LLJ WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR A POSSIBLE MCS.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT
HOWEVER...AND CAN ONLY FIND A 200-400 J/KG ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.  BUT
EVEN THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...PWATS WILL BE REACHING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT.  BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE 850MB WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR DOOR COUNTY FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HANG AROUND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE MCS FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
REDEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN BE LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEAR POSSIBLE.  A DRY PERIOD COULD THEN FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.  THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WERE FALLING OUT OF A VFR OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO 2.00 INCHES WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER SOUTH HALF
OF THE STATE. H850 FRONT LIFTING NORTH LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WHILE A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TIED TO A 850 LOW ALONG WITH A BIT MORE
UPPER JET SUPPORT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.
POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH BOTH EVENTS...AND QUITE POSSIBLE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PERIOD THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY EVENING COULD RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES TO NEARLY 4 INCHES.
EVEN THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE A BREAK WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AS OF WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE AN
ESF FOR RISING RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ITS ALSO
POSSIBLE A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FIRST EVENT SATURATES
THE GROUND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 270814
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WISCONSIN.
WILL ADJUST SHOWERS COVERAGE TO SCATTERED TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS
PER AREA RADARS. EARLY ESTIMATE OF THE TIMING OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE SHORT WAVE AXIS REACHES THE GRB AREA
AROUND 12Z. AS A RESULT MAY NEED TO HANG ONTO A SHOWER MENTION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FOX RIVER AND
LAKE WINNEBAGO.

AFTER A PERIOD OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REASSERTS ITSELF AGAIN UNDER BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. FOG IS LIKELY
BACK IN THE PICTURE WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

CLOUDS TO BE IN THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT AND INCREASING PWATS FROM
THE DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE OVER THE MID MISS REGION. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT THE PATTERN WILL START
OUT AS SPLIT FLOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.  THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS.  THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST EJECTING A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SIDES WITH THE GFS AND
WILL SIDE THAT DIRECTION UNLESS THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAKE A DRASTIC
CHANGE.  THE ECMWF WILL WORK FOR LATER PERIODS THOUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PROMOTE A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.  GOOD FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK
AND FGEN ALONG THE NOSE OF A MODEST 30 KT LLJ WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR A POSSIBLE MCS.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT
HOWEVER...AND CAN ONLY FIND A 200-400 J/KG ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.  BUT
EVEN THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...PWATS WILL BE REACHING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT.  BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE 850MB WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR DOOR COUNTY FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HANG AROUND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE MCS FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
REDEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN BE LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEAR POSSIBLE.  A DRY PERIOD COULD THEN FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.  THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDED SHOWERS
TO THE 06Z KRHI TAF. MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME SPRINKLES TO
KAUW/KCWA/KGRB TAF SITES. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THE
SPRINKLES FOR THESE SITES. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND FORECAST STILL PROBLEMATIC ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO 2.00 INCHES WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER SOUTH HALF
OF THE STATE. H850 FRONT LIFTING NORTH LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WHILE A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TIED TO A 850 LOW ALONG WITH A BIT MORE
UPPER JET SUPPORT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.
POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH BOTH EVENTS...AND QUITE POSSIBLE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PERIOD THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY EVENING COULD RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES TO NEARLY 4 INCHES.
EVEN THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE A BREAK WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AS OF WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE AN
ESF FOR RISING RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ITS ALSO
POSSIBLE A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FIRST EVENT SATURATES
THE GROUND.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TDH










000
FXUS63 KGRB 270814
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WISCONSIN.
WILL ADJUST SHOWERS COVERAGE TO SCATTERED TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS
PER AREA RADARS. EARLY ESTIMATE OF THE TIMING OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE SHORT WAVE AXIS REACHES THE GRB AREA
AROUND 12Z. AS A RESULT MAY NEED TO HANG ONTO A SHOWER MENTION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FOX RIVER AND
LAKE WINNEBAGO.

AFTER A PERIOD OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REASSERTS ITSELF AGAIN UNDER BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. FOG IS LIKELY
BACK IN THE PICTURE WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

CLOUDS TO BE IN THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM FRONT AND INCREASING PWATS FROM
THE DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE OVER THE MID MISS REGION. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
STARTING LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT THE PATTERN WILL START
OUT AS SPLIT FLOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.  THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS.  THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST EJECTING A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SIDES WITH THE GFS AND
WILL SIDE THAT DIRECTION UNLESS THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAKE A DRASTIC
CHANGE.  THE ECMWF WILL WORK FOR LATER PERIODS THOUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PROMOTE A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.  GOOD FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET STREAK
AND FGEN ALONG THE NOSE OF A MODEST 30 KT LLJ WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR A POSSIBLE MCS.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT
HOWEVER...AND CAN ONLY FIND A 200-400 J/KG ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.  BUT
EVEN THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...PWATS WILL BE REACHING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT.  BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE 850MB WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR DOOR COUNTY FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HANG AROUND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE MCS FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
REDEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN BE LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEAR POSSIBLE.  A DRY PERIOD COULD THEN FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.  THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDED SHOWERS
TO THE 06Z KRHI TAF. MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME SPRINKLES TO
KAUW/KCWA/KGRB TAF SITES. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THE
SPRINKLES FOR THESE SITES. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND FORECAST STILL PROBLEMATIC ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO 2.00 INCHES WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER SOUTH HALF
OF THE STATE. H850 FRONT LIFTING NORTH LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WHILE A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TIED TO A 850 LOW ALONG WITH A BIT MORE
UPPER JET SUPPORT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.
POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH BOTH EVENTS...AND QUITE POSSIBLE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PERIOD THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY EVENING COULD RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES TO NEARLY 4 INCHES.
EVEN THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE A BREAK WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AS OF WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE AN
ESF FOR RISING RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ITS ALSO
POSSIBLE A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED AFTER THE FIRST EVENT SATURATES
THE GROUND.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TDH











000
FXUS63 KGRB 270337
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1037 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KMPX RADAR INDICATED
25 TO 35 DBZ AROUND 4500 FEET...TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
GRID/ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT. WILL MAKE ANOTHER GRID ADJUSTMENT TO
TEMPERATURES AFTER 9 PM OBSERVATIONS ARRIVE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT PRETTY MUCH ZONAL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM HAD QPF IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAD QPF THAT WAS EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH WESTERLIES LYING ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER TROF DRIFTING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE EVENTUALLY BROUGHT EAST BY SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLIES. PCPN CHANCES MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS POINTING AT A RATHER WET PERIOD LATER THU INTO
SATURDAY. (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION) A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

SURFACE HI SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH FRONT SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN
THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC`S MORE CONSISTENT...
SOUTHERLY TRENDS REGARDING PCPN COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA. DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD VERSUS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS WITH
FRONT/WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...THUS MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDED SHOWERS
TO THE 06Z KRHI TAF. MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME SPRINKLES TO
KAUW/KCWA/KGRB TAF SITES. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THE
SPRINKLES FOR THESE SITES. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND FORECAST STILL PROBLEMATIC ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY REACHING 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN. SIG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL WI THU AFTERNOON. SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI. MODELS SUGGEST RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY
ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS PERIOD. RIVER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 270337
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1037 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KMPX RADAR INDICATED
25 TO 35 DBZ AROUND 4500 FEET...TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
GRID/ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT. WILL MAKE ANOTHER GRID ADJUSTMENT TO
TEMPERATURES AFTER 9 PM OBSERVATIONS ARRIVE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT PRETTY MUCH ZONAL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM HAD QPF IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAD QPF THAT WAS EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH WESTERLIES LYING ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER TROF DRIFTING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE EVENTUALLY BROUGHT EAST BY SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLIES. PCPN CHANCES MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS POINTING AT A RATHER WET PERIOD LATER THU INTO
SATURDAY. (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION) A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

SURFACE HI SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH FRONT SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN
THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC`S MORE CONSISTENT...
SOUTHERLY TRENDS REGARDING PCPN COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA. DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD VERSUS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS WITH
FRONT/WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...THUS MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDED SHOWERS
TO THE 06Z KRHI TAF. MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME SPRINKLES TO
KAUW/KCWA/KGRB TAF SITES. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THE
SPRINKLES FOR THESE SITES. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND FORECAST STILL PROBLEMATIC ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY REACHING 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN. SIG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL WI THU AFTERNOON. SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI. MODELS SUGGEST RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY
ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS PERIOD. RIVER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 270337
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1037 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KMPX RADAR INDICATED
25 TO 35 DBZ AROUND 4500 FEET...TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
GRID/ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT. WILL MAKE ANOTHER GRID ADJUSTMENT TO
TEMPERATURES AFTER 9 PM OBSERVATIONS ARRIVE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT PRETTY MUCH ZONAL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM HAD QPF IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAD QPF THAT WAS EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH WESTERLIES LYING ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER TROF DRIFTING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE EVENTUALLY BROUGHT EAST BY SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLIES. PCPN CHANCES MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS POINTING AT A RATHER WET PERIOD LATER THU INTO
SATURDAY. (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION) A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

SURFACE HI SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH FRONT SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN
THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC`S MORE CONSISTENT...
SOUTHERLY TRENDS REGARDING PCPN COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA. DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD VERSUS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS WITH
FRONT/WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...THUS MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDED SHOWERS
TO THE 06Z KRHI TAF. MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME SPRINKLES TO
KAUW/KCWA/KGRB TAF SITES. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THE
SPRINKLES FOR THESE SITES. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND FORECAST STILL PROBLEMATIC ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY REACHING 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN. SIG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL WI THU AFTERNOON. SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI. MODELS SUGGEST RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY
ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS PERIOD. RIVER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 270337
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1037 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KMPX RADAR INDICATED
25 TO 35 DBZ AROUND 4500 FEET...TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
GRID/ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT. WILL MAKE ANOTHER GRID ADJUSTMENT TO
TEMPERATURES AFTER 9 PM OBSERVATIONS ARRIVE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT PRETTY MUCH ZONAL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM HAD QPF IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAD QPF THAT WAS EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH WESTERLIES LYING ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER TROF DRIFTING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE EVENTUALLY BROUGHT EAST BY SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLIES. PCPN CHANCES MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS POINTING AT A RATHER WET PERIOD LATER THU INTO
SATURDAY. (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION) A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

SURFACE HI SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH FRONT SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN
THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC`S MORE CONSISTENT...
SOUTHERLY TRENDS REGARDING PCPN COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA. DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD VERSUS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS WITH
FRONT/WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...THUS MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDED SHOWERS
TO THE 06Z KRHI TAF. MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME SPRINKLES TO
KAUW/KCWA/KGRB TAF SITES. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THE
SPRINKLES FOR THESE SITES. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND FORECAST STILL PROBLEMATIC ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY REACHING 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN. SIG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL WI THU AFTERNOON. SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI. MODELS SUGGEST RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY
ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS PERIOD. RIVER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 270201
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
901 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KMPX RADAR INDICATED
25 TO 35 DBZ AROUND 4500 FEET...TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
GRID/ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT. WILL MAKE ANOTHER GRID ADJUSTMENT TO
TEMPERATURES AFTER 9 PM OBSERVATIONS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT PRETTY MUCH ZONAL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM HAD QPF IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAD QPF THAT WAS EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH WESTERLIES LYING ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER TROF DRIFTING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE EVENTUALLY BROUGHT EAST BY SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLIES. PCPN CHANCES MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS POINTING AT A RATHER WET PERIOD LATER THU INTO
SATURDAY. (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION) A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

SURFACE HI SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH FRONT SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN
THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC`S MORE CONSISTENT...
SOUTHERLY TRENDS REGARDING PCPN COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA. DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD VERSUS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS WITH
FRONT/WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...THUS MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER
TONIGHT...A FEW SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WAUSAU TO MARINETTE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND FOUR THOUSAND FEET AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WRF/GFS MODELS ARE ABOUT 180 DEGREES
DIFFERENT. DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE GFS/LAV GUIDANCE FOR NOW...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH DUE TO THE BIG DIFFERENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION FROM THE WRF MODEL.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY REACHING 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN. SIG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL WI THU AFTERNOON. SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI. MODELS SUGGEST RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY
ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS PERIOD. RIVER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 270201
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
901 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KMPX RADAR INDICATED
25 TO 35 DBZ AROUND 4500 FEET...TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
GRID/ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT. WILL MAKE ANOTHER GRID ADJUSTMENT TO
TEMPERATURES AFTER 9 PM OBSERVATIONS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT PRETTY MUCH ZONAL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM HAD QPF IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAD QPF THAT WAS EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH WESTERLIES LYING ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER TROF DRIFTING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE EVENTUALLY BROUGHT EAST BY SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLIES. PCPN CHANCES MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS POINTING AT A RATHER WET PERIOD LATER THU INTO
SATURDAY. (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION) A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

SURFACE HI SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH FRONT SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN
THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC`S MORE CONSISTENT...
SOUTHERLY TRENDS REGARDING PCPN COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA. DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD VERSUS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS WITH
FRONT/WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...THUS MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER
TONIGHT...A FEW SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WAUSAU TO MARINETTE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND FOUR THOUSAND FEET AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WRF/GFS MODELS ARE ABOUT 180 DEGREES
DIFFERENT. DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE GFS/LAV GUIDANCE FOR NOW...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH DUE TO THE BIG DIFFERENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION FROM THE WRF MODEL.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY REACHING 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN. SIG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL WI THU AFTERNOON. SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI. MODELS SUGGEST RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY
ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS PERIOD. RIVER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 262258
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
558 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT PRETTY MUCH ZONAL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM HAD QPF IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAD QPF THAT WAS EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH WESTERLIES LYING ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER TROF DRIFTING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE EVENTUALLY BROUGHT EAST BY SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLIES. PCPN CHANCES MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS POINTING AT A RATHER WET PERIOD LATER THU INTO
SATURDAY. (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION) A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

SURFACE HI SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH FRONT SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN
THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC`S MORE CONSISTENT...
SOUTHERLY TRENDS REGARDING PCPN COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA. DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD VERSUS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS WITH
FRONT/WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...THUS MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER
TONIGHT...A FEW SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WAUSAU TO MARINETTE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND FOUR THOUSAND FEET AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WRF/GFS MODELS ARE ABOUT 180 DEGREES
DIFFERENT. DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE GFS/LAV GUIDANCE FOR NOW...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH DUE TO THE BIG DIFFERENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION FROM THE WRF MODEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY REACHING 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN. SIG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL WI THU AFTERNOON. SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI. MODELS SUGGEST RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY
ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS PERIOD. RIVER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 262009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT PRETTY MUCH ZONAL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM HAD QPF IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAD QPF THAT WAS EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH WESTERLIES LYING ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER TROF DRIFTING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE EVENTUALLY BROUGHT EAST BY SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLIES. PCPN CHANCES MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS POINTING AT A RATHER WET PERIOD LATER THU INTO
SATURDAY. (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION) A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

SURFACE HI SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH FRONT SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN
THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC`S MORE CONSISTENT...
SOUTHERLY TRENDS REGARDING PCPN COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA. DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD VERSUS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS WITH
FRONT/WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...THUS MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000-3000FT AGL CLOUDS COVERED THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MIDDAY AND THERE WERE
ALSO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MODELS WERE
SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY REACHING 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN. SIG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL WI THU AFTERNOON. SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI. MODELS SUGGEST RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY
ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS PERIOD. RIVER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MG
HYDROLOGY......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 262009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT PRETTY MUCH ZONAL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM HAD QPF IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAD QPF THAT WAS EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH WESTERLIES LYING ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER TROF DRIFTING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE EVENTUALLY BROUGHT EAST BY SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLIES. PCPN CHANCES MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD WITH MODELS POINTING AT A RATHER WET PERIOD LATER THU INTO
SATURDAY. (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION) A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

SURFACE HI SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH FRONT SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN
THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC`S MORE CONSISTENT...
SOUTHERLY TRENDS REGARDING PCPN COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA. DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD VERSUS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS WITH
FRONT/WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PCPN...THUS MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000-3000FT AGL CLOUDS COVERED THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MIDDAY AND THERE WERE
ALSO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MODELS WERE
SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY REACHING 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN. SIG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY WILL BRING A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN TO CENTRAL WI THU AFTERNOON. SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI. MODELS SUGGEST RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY
ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS PERIOD. RIVER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL AND CAN HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING
CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MG
HYDROLOGY......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 261806
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
106 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM AROUND CRIVITZ
TO SHAWANO TO WAUTOMA AND STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. AREAS RADARS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN GRADUALLY MOVING
TOWARD PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION SHOWERS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDER THIS AM.
FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION WILL ONLY BE IN THE MORNING.

NEXT ISSUE CONCERNS ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING OVER
A DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION...SO WILL CONFINE MENTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODEL JET STRUCTURE IN
QUESTION...BUT UPPER JET SUPPORT COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL

CLOUDS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES THE LAST ISSUE. APPEARS AFTER THE
FROPA THIS AM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...OR AT
LEAST START CLEAR TODAY. CU BEGINS TO APPROACH SCT-BKN LEVELS OVER
THE THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS H850 FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS ANOTHER
REASON TO ADD SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OVER.

TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THEN EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A CUT-
OFF WEAK UPR TROF DRIFTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES (WED NGT) TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES (THIS WEEKEND). PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE
OVER NE WI AHEAD OF THIS UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES). A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROF TO DRIVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT
OUR WEATHER NEXT MON. TEMPS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

THE SFC HI SLIPS FARTHER EAST WED NGT AND ALLOWS MOISTURE WHICH
HAS BEEN POOLING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...TO START EDGING
NEWD INTO SW WI. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA AND
WL NEED TO WATCH THE LEADING EDGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS (ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA) MAKE A MOVE TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. MAY ADD A TOKEN POP
TO WOOD/WAUSHARA COUNTIES...BUT EXPECT THE DRY FCST TO HOLD THRU
THE NGT AS THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO STILL BE DRY. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S FAR NRN WI...TO THE MID 50S OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS TO REACH FIRST.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FCST TO EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WL INTERACT WITH THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE...THUS HEAVY
RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE RAISED POPS THROUGHOUT NE WI WITH
LIKELY WORDING FOR CNTRL WI. DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN ANTICIPATED...
THU LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE.

MDLS INDICATE A SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE WRMFNT INTO WI THU
NGT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT. HIGHEST POPS
PLACES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA (CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT
AND APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE). ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 2.0". PCPN CHCS TO CARRY
OVER INTO FRI AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ENUF INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER WI TO JUSTIFY THE MENTIONING
OF TSTMS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO THU/
THU NGT. MAX TEMPS TO BE PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER THAN THU
WITH LOWER 70S TO BE MOST COMMON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO LINGER THRU SAT NGT AS A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF HOOKS UP WITH THE NEARLY CUT-OFF SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH WL HAVE MOVED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY.
THERE WL BE DRY TIMES IN THIS STRETCH...BUT TRYING TO DETERMINE
WHEN REMAINS QUITE A TASK. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS CHC POPS IN THE FCST FROM FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PCPN CHCS...IT WOULD BE THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NGT TIME FRAME WITH WEAK UPR RIDGING MOVING THRU THE REGION. PCPN
CHCS WOULD THEN RETURN LATER ON MON AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM SWEEPS
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WE HEAD INTO SEPT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000-3000FT AGL CLOUDS COVERED THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MIDDAY AND THERE WERE
ALSO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MODELS WERE
SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE HUMID AIR MASS FINALLY GETTING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NOT FAR AWAY.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A H850 WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. PROGS SUGGEST
A RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. ITS BEEN A GOOD PERIOD OF TIME SINCE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN. RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN
HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE A FEW MORE
MODEL RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TRENDS FOR THIS EVENT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG
HYDROLOGY......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 261806
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
106 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM AROUND CRIVITZ
TO SHAWANO TO WAUTOMA AND STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. AREAS RADARS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN GRADUALLY MOVING
TOWARD PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION SHOWERS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDER THIS AM.
FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION WILL ONLY BE IN THE MORNING.

NEXT ISSUE CONCERNS ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING OVER
A DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION...SO WILL CONFINE MENTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODEL JET STRUCTURE IN
QUESTION...BUT UPPER JET SUPPORT COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL

CLOUDS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES THE LAST ISSUE. APPEARS AFTER THE
FROPA THIS AM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...OR AT
LEAST START CLEAR TODAY. CU BEGINS TO APPROACH SCT-BKN LEVELS OVER
THE THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS H850 FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS ANOTHER
REASON TO ADD SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OVER.

TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THEN EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A CUT-
OFF WEAK UPR TROF DRIFTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES (WED NGT) TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES (THIS WEEKEND). PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE
OVER NE WI AHEAD OF THIS UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES). A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROF TO DRIVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT
OUR WEATHER NEXT MON. TEMPS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

THE SFC HI SLIPS FARTHER EAST WED NGT AND ALLOWS MOISTURE WHICH
HAS BEEN POOLING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...TO START EDGING
NEWD INTO SW WI. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA AND
WL NEED TO WATCH THE LEADING EDGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS (ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA) MAKE A MOVE TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. MAY ADD A TOKEN POP
TO WOOD/WAUSHARA COUNTIES...BUT EXPECT THE DRY FCST TO HOLD THRU
THE NGT AS THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO STILL BE DRY. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S FAR NRN WI...TO THE MID 50S OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS TO REACH FIRST.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FCST TO EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WL INTERACT WITH THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE...THUS HEAVY
RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE RAISED POPS THROUGHOUT NE WI WITH
LIKELY WORDING FOR CNTRL WI. DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN ANTICIPATED...
THU LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE.

MDLS INDICATE A SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE WRMFNT INTO WI THU
NGT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT. HIGHEST POPS
PLACES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA (CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT
AND APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE). ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 2.0". PCPN CHCS TO CARRY
OVER INTO FRI AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ENUF INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER WI TO JUSTIFY THE MENTIONING
OF TSTMS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO THU/
THU NGT. MAX TEMPS TO BE PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER THAN THU
WITH LOWER 70S TO BE MOST COMMON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO LINGER THRU SAT NGT AS A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF HOOKS UP WITH THE NEARLY CUT-OFF SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH WL HAVE MOVED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY.
THERE WL BE DRY TIMES IN THIS STRETCH...BUT TRYING TO DETERMINE
WHEN REMAINS QUITE A TASK. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS CHC POPS IN THE FCST FROM FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PCPN CHCS...IT WOULD BE THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NGT TIME FRAME WITH WEAK UPR RIDGING MOVING THRU THE REGION. PCPN
CHCS WOULD THEN RETURN LATER ON MON AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM SWEEPS
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WE HEAD INTO SEPT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000-3000FT AGL CLOUDS COVERED THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MIDDAY AND THERE WERE
ALSO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MODELS WERE
SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE HUMID AIR MASS FINALLY GETTING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NOT FAR AWAY.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A H850 WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. PROGS SUGGEST
A RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. ITS BEEN A GOOD PERIOD OF TIME SINCE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN. RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN
HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE A FEW MORE
MODEL RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TRENDS FOR THIS EVENT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 261046
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
546 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM AROUND CRIVITZ
TO SHAWANO TO WAUTOMA AND STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. AREAS RADARS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN GRADUALLY MOVING
TOWARD PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION SHOWERS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDER THIS AM.
FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION WILL ONLY BE IN THE MORNING.

NEXT ISSUE CONCERNS ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING OVER
A DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION...SO WILL CONFINE MENTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODEL JET STRUCTURE IN
QUESTION...BUT UPPER JET SUPPORT COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL

CLOUDS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES THE LAST ISSUE. APPEARS AFTER THE
FROPA THIS AM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...OR AT
LEAST START CLEAR TODAY. CU BEGINS TO APPROACH SCT-BKN LEVELS OVER
THE THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS H850 FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS ANOTHER
REASON TO ADD SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OVER.

TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THEN EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A CUT-
OFF WEAK UPR TROF DRIFTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES (WED NGT) TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES (THIS WEEKEND). PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE
OVER NE WI AHEAD OF THIS UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES). A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROF TO DRIVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT
OUR WEATHER NEXT MON. TEMPS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

THE SFC HI SLIPS FARTHER EAST WED NGT AND ALLOWS MOISTURE WHICH
HAS BEEN POOLING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...TO START EDGING
NEWD INTO SW WI. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA AND
WL NEED TO WATCH THE LEADING EDGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS (ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA) MAKE A MOVE TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. MAY ADD A TOKEN POP
TO WOOD/WAUSHARA COUNTIES...BUT EXPECT THE DRY FCST TO HOLD THRU
THE NGT AS THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO STILL BE DRY. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S FAR NRN WI...TO THE MID 50S OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS TO REACH FIRST.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FCST TO EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WL INTERACT WITH THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE...THUS HEAVY
RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE RAISED POPS THROUGHOUT NE WI WITH
LIKELY WORDING FOR CNTRL WI. DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN ANTICIPATED...
THU LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE.

MDLS INDICATE A SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE WRMFNT INTO WI THU
NGT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT. HIGHEST POPS
PLACES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA (CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT
AND APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE). ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 2.0". PCPN CHCS TO CARRY
OVER INTO FRI AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ENUF INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER WI TO JUSTIFY THE MENTIONING
OF TSTMS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO THU/
THU NGT. MAX TEMPS TO BE PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER THAN THU
WITH LOWER 70S TO BE MOST COMMON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO LINGER THRU SAT NGT AS A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF HOOKS UP WITH THE NEARLY CUT-OFF SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH WL HAVE MOVED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY.
THERE WL BE DRY TIMES IN THIS STRETCH...BUT TRYING TO DETERMINE
WHEN REMAINS QUITE A TASK. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS CHC POPS IN THE FCST FROM FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PCPN CHCS...IT WOULD BE THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NGT TIME FRAME WITH WEAK UPR RIDGING MOVING THRU THE REGION. PCPN
CHCS WOULD THEN RETURN LATER ON MON AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM SWEEPS
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WE HEAD INTO SEPT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. VFR CLOUDS MAINLY POST FRONTAL OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER IOWA WILL FILTER OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER TONIGHT MAY GENERATE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE HUMID AIR MASS FINALLY GETTING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NOT FAR AWAY.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A H850 WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. PROGS SUGGEST
A RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. ITS BEEN A GOOD PERIOD OF TIME SINCE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN. RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN
HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE A FEW MORE
MODEL RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TRENDS FOR THIS EVENT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 261046
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
546 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM AROUND CRIVITZ
TO SHAWANO TO WAUTOMA AND STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. AREAS RADARS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN GRADUALLY MOVING
TOWARD PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION SHOWERS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDER THIS AM.
FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION WILL ONLY BE IN THE MORNING.

NEXT ISSUE CONCERNS ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING OVER
A DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION...SO WILL CONFINE MENTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODEL JET STRUCTURE IN
QUESTION...BUT UPPER JET SUPPORT COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL

CLOUDS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES THE LAST ISSUE. APPEARS AFTER THE
FROPA THIS AM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...OR AT
LEAST START CLEAR TODAY. CU BEGINS TO APPROACH SCT-BKN LEVELS OVER
THE THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS H850 FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS ANOTHER
REASON TO ADD SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OVER.

TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THEN EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A CUT-
OFF WEAK UPR TROF DRIFTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES (WED NGT) TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES (THIS WEEKEND). PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE
OVER NE WI AHEAD OF THIS UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES). A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROF TO DRIVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT
OUR WEATHER NEXT MON. TEMPS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

THE SFC HI SLIPS FARTHER EAST WED NGT AND ALLOWS MOISTURE WHICH
HAS BEEN POOLING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...TO START EDGING
NEWD INTO SW WI. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA AND
WL NEED TO WATCH THE LEADING EDGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS (ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA) MAKE A MOVE TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. MAY ADD A TOKEN POP
TO WOOD/WAUSHARA COUNTIES...BUT EXPECT THE DRY FCST TO HOLD THRU
THE NGT AS THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO STILL BE DRY. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S FAR NRN WI...TO THE MID 50S OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS TO REACH FIRST.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FCST TO EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WL INTERACT WITH THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE...THUS HEAVY
RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE RAISED POPS THROUGHOUT NE WI WITH
LIKELY WORDING FOR CNTRL WI. DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN ANTICIPATED...
THU LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE.

MDLS INDICATE A SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE WRMFNT INTO WI THU
NGT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT. HIGHEST POPS
PLACES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA (CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT
AND APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE). ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 2.0". PCPN CHCS TO CARRY
OVER INTO FRI AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ENUF INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER WI TO JUSTIFY THE MENTIONING
OF TSTMS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO THU/
THU NGT. MAX TEMPS TO BE PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER THAN THU
WITH LOWER 70S TO BE MOST COMMON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO LINGER THRU SAT NGT AS A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF HOOKS UP WITH THE NEARLY CUT-OFF SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH WL HAVE MOVED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY.
THERE WL BE DRY TIMES IN THIS STRETCH...BUT TRYING TO DETERMINE
WHEN REMAINS QUITE A TASK. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS CHC POPS IN THE FCST FROM FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PCPN CHCS...IT WOULD BE THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NGT TIME FRAME WITH WEAK UPR RIDGING MOVING THRU THE REGION. PCPN
CHCS WOULD THEN RETURN LATER ON MON AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM SWEEPS
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WE HEAD INTO SEPT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. VFR CLOUDS MAINLY POST FRONTAL OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER IOWA WILL FILTER OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER TONIGHT MAY GENERATE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE HUMID AIR MASS FINALLY GETTING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NOT FAR AWAY.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A H850 WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. PROGS SUGGEST
A RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. ITS BEEN A GOOD PERIOD OF TIME SINCE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN. RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN
HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE A FEW MORE
MODEL RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TRENDS FOR THIS EVENT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 260806
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
306 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM AROUND CRIVITZ
TO SHAWANO TO WAUTOMA AND STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. AREAS RADARS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN GRADUALLY MOVING
TOWARD PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION SHOWERS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDER THIS AM.
FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION WILL ONLY BE IN THE MORNING.

NEXT ISSUE CONCERNS ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING OVER
A DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION...SO WILL CONFINE MENTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODEL JET STRUCTURE IN
QUESTION...BUT UPPER JET SUPPORT COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL

CLOUDS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES THE LAST ISSUE. APPEARS AFTER THE
FROPA THIS AM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...OR AT
LEAST START CLEAR TODAY. CU BEGINS TO APPROACH SCT-BKN LEVELS OVER
THE THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS H850 FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS ANOTHER
REASON TO ADD SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OVER.

TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THEN EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A CUT-
OFF WEAK UPR TROF DRIFTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES (WED NGT) TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES (THIS WEEKEND). PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE
OVER NE WI AHEAD OF THIS UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES). A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROF TO DRIVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT
OUR WEATHER NEXT MON. TEMPS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

THE SFC HI SLIPS FARTHER EAST WED NGT AND ALLOWS MOISTURE WHICH
HAS BEEN POOLING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...TO START EDGING
NEWD INTO SW WI. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA AND
WL NEED TO WATCH THE LEADING EDGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS (ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA) MAKE A MOVE TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. MAY ADD A TOKEN POP
TO WOOD/WAUSHARA COUNTIES...BUT EXPECT THE DRY FCST TO HOLD THRU
THE NGT AS THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO STILL BE DRY. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S FAR NRN WI...TO THE MID 50S OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS TO REACH FIRST.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FCST TO EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WL INTERACT WITH THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE...THUS HEAVY
RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE RAISED POPS THROUGHOUT NE WI WITH
LIKELY WORDING FOR CNTRL WI. DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN ANTICIPATED...
THU LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE.

MDLS INDICATE A SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE WRMFNT INTO WI THU
NGT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT. HIGHEST POPS
PLACES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA (CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT
AND APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE). ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 2.0". PCPN CHCS TO CARRY
OVER INTO FRI AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ENUF INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER WI TO JUSTIFY THE MENTIONING
OF TSTMS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO THU/
THU NGT. MAX TEMPS TO BE PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER THAN THU
WITH LOWER 70S TO BE MOST COMMON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO LINGER THRU SAT NGT AS A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF HOOKS UP WITH THE NEARLY CUT-OFF SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH WL HAVE MOVED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY.
THERE WL BE DRY TIMES IN THIS STRETCH...BUT TRYING TO DETERMINE
WHEN REMAINS QUITE A TASK. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS CHC POPS IN THE FCST FROM FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PCPN CHCS...IT WOULD BE THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NGT TIME FRAME WITH WEAK UPR RIDGING MOVING THRU THE REGION. PCPN
CHCS WOULD THEN RETURN LATER ON MON AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM SWEEPS
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WE HEAD INTO SEPT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAFS IS TO ADD A BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT AT KRHI. CLOUDY SHIELD APPROACHING
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD MOVE OVER
THIS SITE. AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 14 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. STILL MUCH DEBATE IN
WHEN LAKE BREEZE WILL ARRIVE AT KMTW. STILL HAVE 22Z FOR NOW...
BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST TIMING LATER TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE HUMID AIR MASS FINALLY GETTING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NOT FAR AWAY.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A H850 WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. PROGS SUGGEST
A RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. ITS BEEN A GOOD PERIOD OF TIME SINCE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN. RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN
HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE A FEW MORE
MODEL RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TRENDS FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TDH










000
FXUS63 KGRB 260806
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
306 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM AROUND CRIVITZ
TO SHAWANO TO WAUTOMA AND STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. AREAS RADARS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN GRADUALLY MOVING
TOWARD PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION SHOWERS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDER THIS AM.
FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION WILL ONLY BE IN THE MORNING.

NEXT ISSUE CONCERNS ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING OVER
A DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION...SO WILL CONFINE MENTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODEL JET STRUCTURE IN
QUESTION...BUT UPPER JET SUPPORT COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL

CLOUDS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES THE LAST ISSUE. APPEARS AFTER THE
FROPA THIS AM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...OR AT
LEAST START CLEAR TODAY. CU BEGINS TO APPROACH SCT-BKN LEVELS OVER
THE THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS H850 FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS ANOTHER
REASON TO ADD SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OVER.

TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THEN EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A CUT-
OFF WEAK UPR TROF DRIFTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES (WED NGT) TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES (THIS WEEKEND). PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE
OVER NE WI AHEAD OF THIS UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES). A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROF TO DRIVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT
OUR WEATHER NEXT MON. TEMPS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

THE SFC HI SLIPS FARTHER EAST WED NGT AND ALLOWS MOISTURE WHICH
HAS BEEN POOLING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...TO START EDGING
NEWD INTO SW WI. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA AND
WL NEED TO WATCH THE LEADING EDGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS (ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA) MAKE A MOVE TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. MAY ADD A TOKEN POP
TO WOOD/WAUSHARA COUNTIES...BUT EXPECT THE DRY FCST TO HOLD THRU
THE NGT AS THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO STILL BE DRY. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S FAR NRN WI...TO THE MID 50S OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS TO REACH FIRST.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FCST TO EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WL INTERACT WITH THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE...THUS HEAVY
RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE RAISED POPS THROUGHOUT NE WI WITH
LIKELY WORDING FOR CNTRL WI. DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN ANTICIPATED...
THU LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE.

MDLS INDICATE A SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE WRMFNT INTO WI THU
NGT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT. HIGHEST POPS
PLACES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA (CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT
AND APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE). ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 2.0". PCPN CHCS TO CARRY
OVER INTO FRI AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ENUF INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER WI TO JUSTIFY THE MENTIONING
OF TSTMS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO THU/
THU NGT. MAX TEMPS TO BE PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER THAN THU
WITH LOWER 70S TO BE MOST COMMON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO LINGER THRU SAT NGT AS A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF HOOKS UP WITH THE NEARLY CUT-OFF SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH WL HAVE MOVED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY.
THERE WL BE DRY TIMES IN THIS STRETCH...BUT TRYING TO DETERMINE
WHEN REMAINS QUITE A TASK. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS CHC POPS IN THE FCST FROM FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PCPN CHCS...IT WOULD BE THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NGT TIME FRAME WITH WEAK UPR RIDGING MOVING THRU THE REGION. PCPN
CHCS WOULD THEN RETURN LATER ON MON AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM SWEEPS
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WE HEAD INTO SEPT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAFS IS TO ADD A BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT AT KRHI. CLOUDY SHIELD APPROACHING
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD MOVE OVER
THIS SITE. AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 14 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. STILL MUCH DEBATE IN
WHEN LAKE BREEZE WILL ARRIVE AT KMTW. STILL HAVE 22Z FOR NOW...
BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST TIMING LATER TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE HUMID AIR MASS FINALLY GETTING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NOT FAR AWAY.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A H850 WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. PROGS SUGGEST
A RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. ITS BEEN A GOOD PERIOD OF TIME SINCE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN. RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN
HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE A FEW MORE
MODEL RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TRENDS FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TDH









000
FXUS63 KGRB 260334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OCCLUDED
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN FROM ABOUT HAYWARD TO LA
CROSSE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO
DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
STARTING TO SEE SOME MIDDLE 80S POP UP OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE ML CAPES ARE RISING TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG.  STILL SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING TO GO THOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO HOVER OVERHEAD.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER HEATING SO FAR...HAVE REDUCED THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
ISOLATED RANGE AFTER 21Z.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 06-08Z.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA.  IF TEMPS CAN RISE INTO MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE MESO MODELS ARE
EXTREMELY BEARISH IN PREDICTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AND
WITH THE SLOW DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY...HAVE LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF STORMS.  AS INSTABILITY IS LOST THIS EVENING...INTENSITY
OF ANY STORMS SHOULD WANE QUICKLY BY MID-EVENING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE...THOUGH CU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CONTINUED WITH SAME TRENDS OF FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL BE DEALING WITH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WEAK CUT OFF TROF MEANDERING OUT
OF THE WEST...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...EARLY IN PERIOD...SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OUT
OF NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE DRIER AIR
WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN HALF OF WI WITH FRONT SHOVED
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL. HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFT...BUT PAST TWO RUNS OF EC SHOWING LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT
OVER THE NORTH ALONG 850 FRONT. LATER SHIFT CAN REVIEW BUT FOR NOW
KEPT DRY. MEANDERING TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU.
OLD FRONT TO BEGIN TO MAKE WAY NORTH. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING MN/WESTERN WI AS 850 FLOW INCREASES OVER FRONT.
GFS AND NAM FURTHER NORTH WITH COMPLEX THAN CANADIAN AND EC. SREF
TENDING TO SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH LOOK. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS DURING DAY ON THU.

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS MORE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH CANADA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAFS IS TO ADD A BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT AT KRHI. CLOUDY SHIELD APPROACHING
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD MOVE OVER
THIS SITE. AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 14 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. STILL MUCH DEBATE IN
WHEN LAKE BREEZE WILL ARRIVE AT KMTW. STILL HAVE 22Z FOR NOW...
BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST TIMING LATER TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG









000
FXUS63 KGRB 260334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OCCLUDED
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN FROM ABOUT HAYWARD TO LA
CROSSE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO
DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
STARTING TO SEE SOME MIDDLE 80S POP UP OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE ML CAPES ARE RISING TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG.  STILL SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING TO GO THOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO HOVER OVERHEAD.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER HEATING SO FAR...HAVE REDUCED THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
ISOLATED RANGE AFTER 21Z.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 06-08Z.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA.  IF TEMPS CAN RISE INTO MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE MESO MODELS ARE
EXTREMELY BEARISH IN PREDICTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AND
WITH THE SLOW DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY...HAVE LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF STORMS.  AS INSTABILITY IS LOST THIS EVENING...INTENSITY
OF ANY STORMS SHOULD WANE QUICKLY BY MID-EVENING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE...THOUGH CU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CONTINUED WITH SAME TRENDS OF FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL BE DEALING WITH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WEAK CUT OFF TROF MEANDERING OUT
OF THE WEST...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...EARLY IN PERIOD...SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OUT
OF NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE DRIER AIR
WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN HALF OF WI WITH FRONT SHOVED
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL. HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFT...BUT PAST TWO RUNS OF EC SHOWING LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT
OVER THE NORTH ALONG 850 FRONT. LATER SHIFT CAN REVIEW BUT FOR NOW
KEPT DRY. MEANDERING TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU.
OLD FRONT TO BEGIN TO MAKE WAY NORTH. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING MN/WESTERN WI AS 850 FLOW INCREASES OVER FRONT.
GFS AND NAM FURTHER NORTH WITH COMPLEX THAN CANADIAN AND EC. SREF
TENDING TO SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH LOOK. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS DURING DAY ON THU.

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS MORE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH CANADA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAFS IS TO ADD A BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT AT KRHI. CLOUDY SHIELD APPROACHING
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD MOVE OVER
THIS SITE. AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 14 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. STILL MUCH DEBATE IN
WHEN LAKE BREEZE WILL ARRIVE AT KMTW. STILL HAVE 22Z FOR NOW...
BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST TIMING LATER TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 260001
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
701 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OCCLUDED
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN FROM ABOUT HAYWARD TO LA
CROSSE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO
DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
STARTING TO SEE SOME MIDDLE 80S POP UP OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE ML CAPES ARE RISING TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG.  STILL SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING TO GO THOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO HOVER OVERHEAD.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER HEATING SO FAR...HAVE REDUCED THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
ISOLATED RANGE AFTER 21Z.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 06-08Z.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA.  IF TEMPS CAN RISE INTO MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE MESO MODELS ARE
EXTREMELY BEARISH IN PREDICTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AND
WITH THE SLOW DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY...HAVE LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF STORMS.  AS INSTABILITY IS LOST THIS EVENING...INTENSITY
OF ANY STORMS SHOULD WANE QUICKLY BY MID-EVENING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE...THOUGH CU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CONTINUED WITH SAME TRENDS OF FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL BE DEALING WITH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WEAK CUT OFF TROF MEANDERING OUT
OF THE WEST...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...EARLY IN PERIOD...SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OUT
OF NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE DRIER AIR
WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN HALF OF WI WITH FRONT SHOVED
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL. HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFT...BUT PAST TWO RUNS OF EC SHOWING LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT
OVER THE NORTH ALONG 850 FRONT. LATER SHIFT CAN REVIEW BUT FOR NOW
KEPT DRY. MEANDERING TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU.
OLD FRONT TO BEGIN TO MAKE WAY NORTH. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING MN/WESTERN WI AS 850 FLOW INCREASES OVER FRONT.
GFS AND NAM FURTHER NORTH WITH COMPLEX THAN CANADIAN AND EC. SREF
TENDING TO SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH LOOK. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS DURING DAY ON THU.

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS MORE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH CANADA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER
WEST AND THEN WEST OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
MAIN QUESTION AT THE KMTW SITE IS WHEN A LAKE BREEZE WILL KICK IN.
HAVE FIGURED 22Z FOR NOW THINKING GRADIENT WINDS MAY DELAY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 260001
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
701 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OCCLUDED
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN FROM ABOUT HAYWARD TO LA
CROSSE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO
DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
STARTING TO SEE SOME MIDDLE 80S POP UP OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE ML CAPES ARE RISING TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG.  STILL SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING TO GO THOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO HOVER OVERHEAD.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER HEATING SO FAR...HAVE REDUCED THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
ISOLATED RANGE AFTER 21Z.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 06-08Z.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA.  IF TEMPS CAN RISE INTO MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE MESO MODELS ARE
EXTREMELY BEARISH IN PREDICTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AND
WITH THE SLOW DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY...HAVE LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF STORMS.  AS INSTABILITY IS LOST THIS EVENING...INTENSITY
OF ANY STORMS SHOULD WANE QUICKLY BY MID-EVENING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE...THOUGH CU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CONTINUED WITH SAME TRENDS OF FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL BE DEALING WITH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WEAK CUT OFF TROF MEANDERING OUT
OF THE WEST...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...EARLY IN PERIOD...SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OUT
OF NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE DRIER AIR
WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN HALF OF WI WITH FRONT SHOVED
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL. HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFT...BUT PAST TWO RUNS OF EC SHOWING LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT
OVER THE NORTH ALONG 850 FRONT. LATER SHIFT CAN REVIEW BUT FOR NOW
KEPT DRY. MEANDERING TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU.
OLD FRONT TO BEGIN TO MAKE WAY NORTH. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING MN/WESTERN WI AS 850 FLOW INCREASES OVER FRONT.
GFS AND NAM FURTHER NORTH WITH COMPLEX THAN CANADIAN AND EC. SREF
TENDING TO SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH LOOK. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS DURING DAY ON THU.

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS MORE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH CANADA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER
WEST AND THEN WEST OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
MAIN QUESTION AT THE KMTW SITE IS WHEN A LAKE BREEZE WILL KICK IN.
HAVE FIGURED 22Z FOR NOW THINKING GRADIENT WINDS MAY DELAY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 251943
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OCCLUDED
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN FROM ABOUT HAYWARD TO LA
CROSSE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO
DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
STARTING TO SEE SOME MIDDLE 80S POP UP OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE ML CAPES ARE RISING TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG.  STILL SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING TO GO THOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO HOVER OVERHEAD.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER HEATING SO FAR...HAVE REDUCED THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
ISOLATED RANGE AFTER 21Z.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 06-08Z.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA.  IF TEMPS CAN RISE INTO MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE MESO MODELS ARE
EXTREMELY BEARISH IN PREDICTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AND
WITH THE SLOW DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY...HAVE LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF STORMS.  AS INSTABILITY IS LOST THIS EVENING...INTENSITY
OF ANY STORMS SHOULD WANE QUICKLY BY MID-EVENING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE...THOUGH CU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CONTINUED WITH SAME TRENDS OF FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL BE DEALING WITH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WEAK CUT OFF TROF MEANDERING OUT
OF THE WEST...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...EARLY IN PERIOD...SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OUT
OF NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE DRIER AIR
WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN HALF OF WI WITH FRONT SHOVED
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL. HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFT...BUT PAST TWO RUNS OF EC SHOWING LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT
OVER THE NORTH ALONG 850 FRONT. LATER SHIFT CAN REVIEW BUT FOR NOW
KEPT DRY. MEANDERING TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU.
OLD FRONT TO BEGIN TO MAKE WAY NORTH. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING MN/WESTERN WI AS 850 FLOW INCREASES OVER FRONT.
GFS AND NAM FURTHER NORTH WITH COMPLEX THAN CANADIAN AND EC. SREF
TENDING TO SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH LOOK. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS DURING DAY ON THU.

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS MORE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH CANADA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT
A COLD FRONT STILL RESIDES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS...HAVE LEFT OUT A
MENTION AT THE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES.  THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT.  DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 251943
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OCCLUDED
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN FROM ABOUT HAYWARD TO LA
CROSSE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO
DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
STARTING TO SEE SOME MIDDLE 80S POP UP OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE ML CAPES ARE RISING TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG.  STILL SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING TO GO THOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO HOVER OVERHEAD.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER HEATING SO FAR...HAVE REDUCED THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
ISOLATED RANGE AFTER 21Z.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 06-08Z.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA.  IF TEMPS CAN RISE INTO MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE MESO MODELS ARE
EXTREMELY BEARISH IN PREDICTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AND
WITH THE SLOW DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY...HAVE LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF STORMS.  AS INSTABILITY IS LOST THIS EVENING...INTENSITY
OF ANY STORMS SHOULD WANE QUICKLY BY MID-EVENING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE...THOUGH CU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CONTINUED WITH SAME TRENDS OF FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL BE DEALING WITH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WEAK CUT OFF TROF MEANDERING OUT
OF THE WEST...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...EARLY IN PERIOD...SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OUT
OF NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE DRIER AIR
WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN HALF OF WI WITH FRONT SHOVED
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL. HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFT...BUT PAST TWO RUNS OF EC SHOWING LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT
OVER THE NORTH ALONG 850 FRONT. LATER SHIFT CAN REVIEW BUT FOR NOW
KEPT DRY. MEANDERING TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU.
OLD FRONT TO BEGIN TO MAKE WAY NORTH. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING MN/WESTERN WI AS 850 FLOW INCREASES OVER FRONT.
GFS AND NAM FURTHER NORTH WITH COMPLEX THAN CANADIAN AND EC. SREF
TENDING TO SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH LOOK. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS DURING DAY ON THU.

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS MORE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH CANADA.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT
A COLD FRONT STILL RESIDES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS...HAVE LEFT OUT A
MENTION AT THE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES.  THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT.  DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 251643
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WARM AND HUMID WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN HUMIDITIES
DROPPING AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

UPR PATTERN ACRS NOAM DOMINATED BY A TROF OVER THE WEST AND A
RIDGE IN THE E. STG SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL FLATTEN
THE NRN PORTION OF THE ERN RIDGE EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...
HELPING TO LEAD THE WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
ACRS SRN CANADA AND AND THE EXTREME NRN CONUS BY MID-WEEK. AS THE
THE SRN PORTION OF THE WRN TROF WL INITIALLY BE LEFT BEHIND IN A
WK SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS...THOUGH THAT WILL MERGE BACK INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AS THEY SAG SWD DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS INITIALLY ACRS THE AREA WL BE
REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH
WITH SOME DAY TO DAY VARIATION DUE TO CLDS/PRECIPITATION. TSTMS WL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...THEN THERE WL BE ANOTHER PRETTY
GOOD SET-UP FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO AMNTS WL MOST LIKELY END UP ABV NORMAL AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MAIN FCST ISSUE IS LINING UP POPS TODAY. LINE OF STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WL CONT TO SURGE EWD AND
AFFECT MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. PWATS STILL HIGH...BUT
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WERE LEADING TO MORE RAPID STORM MOVEMENT AND
LESS EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THAT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALIGNMENT OF THE STORMS...HOWEVER...WAS LEADING TO TRAINING. SOME
OF THE STORMS TO THE SW HAVE PRODUCED A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS...AND
WL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TO SEE IF THAT CONTS NE INTO THE FCST
AREA. IN THE GRIDS...WL HAVE HVY RAIN ATTRIBUTE WITH THE TSTMS
WHERE POPS ARE ABV 50 PCT...BUT SVR THREAT WL BE ISOLD SO WL NOT
HAVE EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR.

LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN IN ERN WI AND PULL OFF TO
THE NE BY LATE MORNING. BUT THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT...THOUGH
BECOMMING SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE/ILL DEFINED...WAS STILL BACK TO THE W.
ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WL NOT BE NEARLY AS STG AS
OUT TO THE W YDA...THINK IT WL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS OVER MAINLY E-C WI THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVENING. COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCT THOUGH...SO DID NOT TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. THOSE STORMS MAY POSE A SVR RISK AS
WELL...THOUGH GIVEN THE WEAKER FORCING AND QUESTIONS ABOUT
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...WILL
HANDLE WITH JUST A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

BOUNDARY WL CONT ON TO THE S OF THE AREA TNGT. BUT SUSPECT LOWER
DWPTS/MORE STABLE AIR WL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. SO
LINGERED POPS ACRS THE FAR S THROUGH TNGT AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHRA LINGER OVER THAT AREA.

WENT WITH DRY FCST FOR EARLY TUE...THEN HAD SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE
FAR S IN THE AFTN. THE MAIN RAIN CHC WL BE TO THE S...BUT AGAIN...
NOT CONFIDENT DRYING WL PROGRESS SWD AS QUICKLY AS SHOWN IN THE
MODELS.

STUCK WITH BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MDLS APPEAR TO BE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
WEAKER SRN STREAM MEANDERING ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...
THERE WL BE A SLOW-MOVING UPR TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NE WI
LATE IN THE WEEK AND BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TO THE REGION.
TEMPS TO SETTLE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THRU THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A
SMALL UPTICK IS NOTED NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE IS NOW MDL CONSENSUS THAT THE CDFNT WL BE ABLE TO REACH NRN
IL BEFORE PULLING UP STNRY TUE NGT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA OF HI
PRES IS FCST TO PUSH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND HELP TO DRAW
DRIER AIR INTO NE WI. JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF OF A THREAT TO WARRANT
HANGING ON TO THE SLGT CHC POP OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA...THUS HAVE GONE DRY EVERYWHERE TUE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO
ACTUALLY BE THE TRICKY PART OF THE FCST WITH MORE CLOUDS SOUTH/
LESS CLOUDS NORTH WITH LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. MAY NEED TO LOWER
VALUES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MORE 40S NORTH TO MID 50S
E-CNTRL WI.

THIS HI PRES WL OVERSPREAD NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD THRU THE MIDWEST
ALONG THE QUASI-STNRY FNT. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI WITH MORE SUNSHINE FOR THE NORTH. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVER THE FCST AREA WITH UPR 60S/LWR 70S NORTH...
LWR TO MID 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

CLASSIC BATTLE SETTING UP STARTING WED NGT BETWEEN THE INCUMBENT
DRY AIR MASS OVER NE WI AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO PUSH NWD
AS THE QUASI-STNRY FNT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST. AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE GFS IS QUICKEST IN SENDING THIS MOISTURE
NWD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF MN/WI WHILE THE OTHER MDLS FAVOR THE DRY
AIR WINNING OUT WITH PCPN JUST MOVING INTO SW WI TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PREFER THE MAJORITY HERE AND WL ONLY MENTION A MINIMAL POP FOR
CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S
NORTH (A FEW LWR 40S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS STAY AWAY)...TO
THE LWR TO MID 50S SRN SECTIONS.

HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF/S SLOWER TREND WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO WI ON THU. A SURFACE WAVE IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HELP TO FOCUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH A GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE PCPN INTO SW WI...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOUR WITH THE HELP OF MODEST WAA.
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR CNTRL WI...DECREASING OR NIL POPS FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR
70S RANGE.

THERE CONTS TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF
BOTH THE SURFACE WAVE AND THE NEW WRMFNT LIFTING NE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES THU NGT INTO FRI. THE TWIST NOW IS THAT THE GEM DOES
NOT BRING THESE FEATURES TOWARD NE WI TIL LATE ON FRI...THEREFORE
ESSENTIALLY KEEPING NE WI DRY. THIS SEEMS TOO SLOW CONSIDERING THE
SURFACE HI IS WELL TO OUR EAST AND SW WINDS ALOFT CONTS TO SEND
MOISTURE INTO WI. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR BOTH THU NGT
AND FRI.

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THEN PERSIST INTO SAT AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A NRN STREAM
CDFNT PROGGED TO DROP SE INTO THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A NICER
END TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT
A COLD FRONT STILL RESIDES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS...HAVE LEFT OUT A
MENTION AT THE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES.  THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT.  DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 251643
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WARM AND HUMID WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN HUMIDITIES
DROPPING AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

UPR PATTERN ACRS NOAM DOMINATED BY A TROF OVER THE WEST AND A
RIDGE IN THE E. STG SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL FLATTEN
THE NRN PORTION OF THE ERN RIDGE EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...
HELPING TO LEAD THE WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
ACRS SRN CANADA AND AND THE EXTREME NRN CONUS BY MID-WEEK. AS THE
THE SRN PORTION OF THE WRN TROF WL INITIALLY BE LEFT BEHIND IN A
WK SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS...THOUGH THAT WILL MERGE BACK INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AS THEY SAG SWD DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS INITIALLY ACRS THE AREA WL BE
REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH
WITH SOME DAY TO DAY VARIATION DUE TO CLDS/PRECIPITATION. TSTMS WL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...THEN THERE WL BE ANOTHER PRETTY
GOOD SET-UP FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO AMNTS WL MOST LIKELY END UP ABV NORMAL AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MAIN FCST ISSUE IS LINING UP POPS TODAY. LINE OF STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WL CONT TO SURGE EWD AND
AFFECT MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. PWATS STILL HIGH...BUT
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WERE LEADING TO MORE RAPID STORM MOVEMENT AND
LESS EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THAT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALIGNMENT OF THE STORMS...HOWEVER...WAS LEADING TO TRAINING. SOME
OF THE STORMS TO THE SW HAVE PRODUCED A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS...AND
WL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TO SEE IF THAT CONTS NE INTO THE FCST
AREA. IN THE GRIDS...WL HAVE HVY RAIN ATTRIBUTE WITH THE TSTMS
WHERE POPS ARE ABV 50 PCT...BUT SVR THREAT WL BE ISOLD SO WL NOT
HAVE EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR.

LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN IN ERN WI AND PULL OFF TO
THE NE BY LATE MORNING. BUT THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT...THOUGH
BECOMMING SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE/ILL DEFINED...WAS STILL BACK TO THE W.
ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WL NOT BE NEARLY AS STG AS
OUT TO THE W YDA...THINK IT WL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS OVER MAINLY E-C WI THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVENING. COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCT THOUGH...SO DID NOT TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. THOSE STORMS MAY POSE A SVR RISK AS
WELL...THOUGH GIVEN THE WEAKER FORCING AND QUESTIONS ABOUT
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...WILL
HANDLE WITH JUST A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

BOUNDARY WL CONT ON TO THE S OF THE AREA TNGT. BUT SUSPECT LOWER
DWPTS/MORE STABLE AIR WL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. SO
LINGERED POPS ACRS THE FAR S THROUGH TNGT AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHRA LINGER OVER THAT AREA.

WENT WITH DRY FCST FOR EARLY TUE...THEN HAD SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE
FAR S IN THE AFTN. THE MAIN RAIN CHC WL BE TO THE S...BUT AGAIN...
NOT CONFIDENT DRYING WL PROGRESS SWD AS QUICKLY AS SHOWN IN THE
MODELS.

STUCK WITH BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MDLS APPEAR TO BE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
WEAKER SRN STREAM MEANDERING ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...
THERE WL BE A SLOW-MOVING UPR TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NE WI
LATE IN THE WEEK AND BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS TO THE REGION.
TEMPS TO SETTLE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THRU THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A
SMALL UPTICK IS NOTED NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE IS NOW MDL CONSENSUS THAT THE CDFNT WL BE ABLE TO REACH NRN
IL BEFORE PULLING UP STNRY TUE NGT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA OF HI
PRES IS FCST TO PUSH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND HELP TO DRAW
DRIER AIR INTO NE WI. JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF OF A THREAT TO WARRANT
HANGING ON TO THE SLGT CHC POP OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA...THUS HAVE GONE DRY EVERYWHERE TUE NGT. MIN TEMPS TO
ACTUALLY BE THE TRICKY PART OF THE FCST WITH MORE CLOUDS SOUTH/
LESS CLOUDS NORTH WITH LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. MAY NEED TO LOWER
VALUES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MORE 40S NORTH TO MID 50S
E-CNTRL WI.

THIS HI PRES WL OVERSPREAD NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD THRU THE MIDWEST
ALONG THE QUASI-STNRY FNT. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI WITH MORE SUNSHINE FOR THE NORTH. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVER THE FCST AREA WITH UPR 60S/LWR 70S NORTH...
LWR TO MID 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

CLASSIC BATTLE SETTING UP STARTING WED NGT BETWEEN THE INCUMBENT
DRY AIR MASS OVER NE WI AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO PUSH NWD
AS THE QUASI-STNRY FNT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST. AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE GFS IS QUICKEST IN SENDING THIS MOISTURE
NWD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF MN/WI WHILE THE OTHER MDLS FAVOR THE DRY
AIR WINNING OUT WITH PCPN JUST MOVING INTO SW WI TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PREFER THE MAJORITY HERE AND WL ONLY MENTION A MINIMAL POP FOR
CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S
NORTH (A FEW LWR 40S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS STAY AWAY)...TO
THE LWR TO MID 50S SRN SECTIONS.

HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF/S SLOWER TREND WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO WI ON THU. A SURFACE WAVE IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HELP TO FOCUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH A GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE PCPN INTO SW WI...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOUR WITH THE HELP OF MODEST WAA.
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR CNTRL WI...DECREASING OR NIL POPS FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR
70S RANGE.

THERE CONTS TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF
BOTH THE SURFACE WAVE AND THE NEW WRMFNT LIFTING NE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES THU NGT INTO FRI. THE TWIST NOW IS THAT THE GEM DOES
NOT BRING THESE FEATURES TOWARD NE WI TIL LATE ON FRI...THEREFORE
ESSENTIALLY KEEPING NE WI DRY. THIS SEEMS TOO SLOW CONSIDERING THE
SURFACE HI IS WELL TO OUR EAST AND SW WINDS ALOFT CONTS TO SEND
MOISTURE INTO WI. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR BOTH THU NGT
AND FRI.

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THEN PERSIST INTO SAT AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A NRN STREAM
CDFNT PROGGED TO DROP SE INTO THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A NICER
END TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT
A COLD FRONT STILL RESIDES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS...HAVE LEFT OUT A
MENTION AT THE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES.  THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT.  DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC







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