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000
FXUS63 KGRB 010859
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA SUNDAY
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAS DIMINISHED MOVING
INTO WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE
FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL FIRST BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND INITIALLY
AN UPPER JET COUPLET THEN LFQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOCUS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. WILL NEED TO DIMINISH POPS ELSEWHERE FOR A PORTION OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS PER RADAR TRENDS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
REMOVE DUE TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LIKELY
SOME SHEAR AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE WILL FOCUS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL
AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER FOR THE SECOND ROUND AS MU CAPES APPROACH
1200 LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. AT 08Z STORMS WERE ALREADY REDEVELOPING NEAR THE FROPA
OVER MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND PROGRESSING
EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT REACHING WESTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SPC SLIGHT REMAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY SO
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE MORNING HWO.

WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER A SMALL MENTION OF PCPN OVER FAR EASTERN
AREAS THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PCPN CLEARS OUT. WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THREAT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. SOME
MODELS KEEPING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SO CLOUDS MAY AID
WITH PREVENTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS FOR THE START OF MOST SCHOOLS TUESDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING...STILL SOME SUPPORT THIS MORNING TO KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT TO THE NORTH. WV LOOPS ALSO SUGGEST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TRACKING
EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND A UPPER JET
SLIDING NORTH AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL ADD A DIURNAL TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND MAY CONSIDER
ADDING A SMALL MENTION OF TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL DOMINATE
THE SRN CONUS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF
INITIALLY FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE PACIFIC NW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF WITH THE NRN PART OF THE TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS THU
TO ONTARIO ON FRI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRECEDING THIS UPR TROF WL
BRING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN TO NE WI DURING THE LATE WED THRU FRI
TIME FRAME. HI PRES IS THEN FCST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK SFC HI TO DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVE
VALLEY TUE NGT BRINGING A RETURN FLOW TO WI. WHILE A STRAY SHWR
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTED SHORTWAVE TROF...NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO ADD TO THE FCST AS
FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY PRACTICALLY NON-EXISTENT. THUS...HAVE
KEPT TUE NGT DRY WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 50S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 50S SOUTH.

PREVAILING S-SW WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WI ON WED WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LWR TO MID 60S AND PW
VALUES SURPASSING 1.5" BY 00Z THU. AS THIS OCCURS...A WRMFNT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO AT LEAST SRN WI AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. STRONGER WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE
OVER THE WRN HALF OF WI...THUS CHC POPS PLACED OVER N-CNTRL WI...
SCALING DOWN TO NIL POPS FOR ERN WI. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE 75-80 DEG RANGE
OVER THE NORTH AND LAKESHORE...LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BETTER CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS ARRIVE WED NGT AS THE WRMFNT LIFTS
NORTH THRU THE REST OF WI. INSTABILITY STEADILY INCREASES THRU THE
NGT WITH MDLS SHOWING MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR AND A FAVORABLE JET
STRUCTURE ADDITIONAL LIFT. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FACTORS PLUS THE STRENGTH OF
THE WAA. A MILD AND MUGGY NGT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH. MDLS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA/NRN
PLAINS ON THU WITH A CDFNT DRIVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
WHILE BETTER MID-LEVEL FORCING TO BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...BETTER
INSTABILITY TO BE SITUATED OVER WI WITH CAPES RISING TO > 2K J/KG
AND LI`S DOWN TO AT LEAST -6. HAVE KEPT MODERATE TO HI CHC POPS IN
THE FCST FOR NOW AND WL WAIT TO NAIL THE TIMING OF THE CDFNT
BEFORE RAISING POPS HIGHER. THU COULD CONCEIVABLY BE THE WARMEST/
MOST HUMID DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S NORTH...MID 80S OVER CNTRL WI AND DEW POINTS EITHER IN
THE UPR 60S OR LWR 70S.

THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THRU NE WI THU NGT...THEREFORE A
CONTINUATION OF POPS ARE NECESSARY. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
STRENGTH OF THESE TSTMS THU INTO THU NGT...BUT GIVE THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FCST TO BE IN PLACE...WE WL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION IN THE COMING DAYS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
FRI AS THE CDFNT EXITS TO THE SE AND HI PRES BUILDS EWD FROM THE
UPR MS VALLEY. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST OVER E-CNTRL WI
INTO THU NGT...BUT BELIEVE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS WL TAKE
PLACE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WI.

THIS AREA OF HI PRES TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AND BRING A SOMEWHAT COOL...BUT PLEASANT STRETCH OF
WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH SAT
AND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT LAKESHORE AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STROMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADDED SOME LLWS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MON AFTN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TE













000
FXUS63 KGRB 010859
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA SUNDAY
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAS DIMINISHED MOVING
INTO WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE
FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL FIRST BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND INITIALLY
AN UPPER JET COUPLET THEN LFQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET LIFTS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOCUS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. WILL NEED TO DIMINISH POPS ELSEWHERE FOR A PORTION OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS PER RADAR TRENDS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
REMOVE DUE TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LIKELY
SOME SHEAR AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE WILL FOCUS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL
AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER FOR THE SECOND ROUND AS MU CAPES APPROACH
1200 LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. AT 08Z STORMS WERE ALREADY REDEVELOPING NEAR THE FROPA
OVER MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND PROGRESSING
EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT REACHING WESTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SPC SLIGHT REMAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY SO
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE MORNING HWO.

WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER A SMALL MENTION OF PCPN OVER FAR EASTERN
AREAS THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PCPN CLEARS OUT. WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THREAT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. SOME
MODELS KEEPING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SO CLOUDS MAY AID
WITH PREVENTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS FOR THE START OF MOST SCHOOLS TUESDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING...STILL SOME SUPPORT THIS MORNING TO KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT TO THE NORTH. WV LOOPS ALSO SUGGEST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TRACKING
EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND A UPPER JET
SLIDING NORTH AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL ADD A DIURNAL TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND MAY CONSIDER
ADDING A SMALL MENTION OF TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL DOMINATE
THE SRN CONUS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF
INITIALLY FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE PACIFIC NW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OFF WITH THE NRN PART OF THE TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS THU
TO ONTARIO ON FRI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRECEDING THIS UPR TROF WL
BRING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN TO NE WI DURING THE LATE WED THRU FRI
TIME FRAME. HI PRES IS THEN FCST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK SFC HI TO DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVE
VALLEY TUE NGT BRINGING A RETURN FLOW TO WI. WHILE A STRAY SHWR
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTED SHORTWAVE TROF...NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO ADD TO THE FCST AS
FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY PRACTICALLY NON-EXISTENT. THUS...HAVE
KEPT TUE NGT DRY WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 50S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 50S SOUTH.

PREVAILING S-SW WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WI ON WED WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LWR TO MID 60S AND PW
VALUES SURPASSING 1.5" BY 00Z THU. AS THIS OCCURS...A WRMFNT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO AT LEAST SRN WI AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. STRONGER WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE
OVER THE WRN HALF OF WI...THUS CHC POPS PLACED OVER N-CNTRL WI...
SCALING DOWN TO NIL POPS FOR ERN WI. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE 75-80 DEG RANGE
OVER THE NORTH AND LAKESHORE...LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BETTER CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS ARRIVE WED NGT AS THE WRMFNT LIFTS
NORTH THRU THE REST OF WI. INSTABILITY STEADILY INCREASES THRU THE
NGT WITH MDLS SHOWING MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR AND A FAVORABLE JET
STRUCTURE ADDITIONAL LIFT. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FACTORS PLUS THE STRENGTH OF
THE WAA. A MILD AND MUGGY NGT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH. MDLS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA/NRN
PLAINS ON THU WITH A CDFNT DRIVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
WHILE BETTER MID-LEVEL FORCING TO BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...BETTER
INSTABILITY TO BE SITUATED OVER WI WITH CAPES RISING TO > 2K J/KG
AND LI`S DOWN TO AT LEAST -6. HAVE KEPT MODERATE TO HI CHC POPS IN
THE FCST FOR NOW AND WL WAIT TO NAIL THE TIMING OF THE CDFNT
BEFORE RAISING POPS HIGHER. THU COULD CONCEIVABLY BE THE WARMEST/
MOST HUMID DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S NORTH...MID 80S OVER CNTRL WI AND DEW POINTS EITHER IN
THE UPR 60S OR LWR 70S.

THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THRU NE WI THU NGT...THEREFORE A
CONTINUATION OF POPS ARE NECESSARY. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
STRENGTH OF THESE TSTMS THU INTO THU NGT...BUT GIVE THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FCST TO BE IN PLACE...WE WL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION IN THE COMING DAYS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
FRI AS THE CDFNT EXITS TO THE SE AND HI PRES BUILDS EWD FROM THE
UPR MS VALLEY. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN POP IN THE FCST OVER E-CNTRL WI
INTO THU NGT...BUT BELIEVE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS WL TAKE
PLACE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WI.

THIS AREA OF HI PRES TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AND BRING A SOMEWHAT COOL...BUT PLEASANT STRETCH OF
WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH SAT
AND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT LAKESHORE AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STROMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADDED SOME LLWS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MON AFTN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TE












000
FXUS63 KGRB 010454
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1154 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HAVE CONTINUED TO HIT LOWER VISBY AT LAKESHORE WITH SPS AS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH ADVISORY. IS STARTING TO IMPROVE IN
MANITOWOC AND WILL CONTIUE TO IMPROVE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WILL BE
WATCHING AREA OF STORMS/SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. WINDS
AT LEAD EDGE STILL RATHER STRONG.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FOR
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

STG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS THE SRN CONUS WL EXPAND NWD A BIT AS
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES GRADUALLY RECEDES NWD
DURING THE PERIOD. NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT THIS PATTERN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AS THE WESTERLIES ARE TYPICALLY STRONGER THAN
DURING THE MIDDLE SUMMER...BUT ARE STILL USUALLY CENTERED N OF THE
AREA.

THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SEPARATING WARM AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL
AIR TO THE S FM COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE N WL REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...AND
CLOSE TO THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. THIS WL RESULT IN
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...LIKELY RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL
AMNTS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL
ALSO BE HUMID AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE DUE IN
PART TO A PRONOUNCED CAP AND DRY AIR ON THE 18Z MINNEAPOLIS
SOUNDING.  HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.  THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN
WYOMING AND ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT WAITS FOR A SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING TO GIVE
IT A FORWARD PUSH.  ASSUMING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DEVELOPS AS PLANNED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST.  MODELS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT AS THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW HOUR BREAK OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
THIS CONVECTION AS IT WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
12Z.  THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPES LOOK TO BE APPROX 500
J/KG SO NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE CONVECTION.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY MORNING...DRIVING THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THIS
EVENT AND COULD SEE AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES IF CONVECTION REACHES
INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING.  WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...SEEMS LIKE AN AWFULLY SMALL TIME PERIOD FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE BEST BET MAY BE TO HAVE STORMS CONTINUOUSLY REFIRE
ALONG THE TAIL OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS ADMITTEDLY SEEMS LIKE
A SMALL CHANCE SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER
BY THIS TIME...AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SQUASHED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.  WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL BUT LEAVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SOME LINGERING PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE MON EVENING...MAINLY OVER E-C
WI. CARRIED CHC POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE ISOLD SHRA
COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NGT...THE MAIN POOL OF INSTABILITY WL
BE WELL S BY THEN...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT.

THERE ARE PROS AND CONS FOR PCPN CHCS TUE. ON ONE HAND...UPR TROF
WL STILL BE ACRS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND WNWLY UPR FLOW
WL KEEP MODEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ACRS THE RGN. ON THE OTHER...
UPR HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...AND QG FORCING
WL BE FAVORING SUBSIDENCE. OPTED TO KEEP FAIRLY LOW POPS...BUT
WENT WITH ISOLD SHRA ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA.
PCPN UNLIKELY TO BE A BIG DEAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TOTALLY DRY DAY
ISN/T THAT GREAT EITHER.

UPR HEIGHTS SHOULD CONT TO RISE TUE NGT/WED. STAYED DRY TUE NGT...
BUT N-C WI WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE RETURN FLOW TO JUSTIFY
HAVING A CHC OF TSRA WED.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF TOP PERFORING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS...
WHICH WERE DOMINATED BY THE ECMWF AND IT/S MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED
DERIVATIVES.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT LAKESHORE AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STROMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADDED SOME LLWS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MON AFTN. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TE
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE









000
FXUS63 KGRB 010454
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1154 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HAVE CONTINUED TO HIT LOWER VISBY AT LAKESHORE WITH SPS AS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH ADVISORY. IS STARTING TO IMPROVE IN
MANITOWOC AND WILL CONTIUE TO IMPROVE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WILL BE
WATCHING AREA OF STORMS/SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. WINDS
AT LEAD EDGE STILL RATHER STRONG.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FOR
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

STG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS THE SRN CONUS WL EXPAND NWD A BIT AS
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES GRADUALLY RECEDES NWD
DURING THE PERIOD. NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT THIS PATTERN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AS THE WESTERLIES ARE TYPICALLY STRONGER THAN
DURING THE MIDDLE SUMMER...BUT ARE STILL USUALLY CENTERED N OF THE
AREA.

THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SEPARATING WARM AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL
AIR TO THE S FM COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE N WL REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...AND
CLOSE TO THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. THIS WL RESULT IN
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...LIKELY RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL
AMNTS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL
ALSO BE HUMID AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE DUE IN
PART TO A PRONOUNCED CAP AND DRY AIR ON THE 18Z MINNEAPOLIS
SOUNDING.  HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.  THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN
WYOMING AND ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT WAITS FOR A SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING TO GIVE
IT A FORWARD PUSH.  ASSUMING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DEVELOPS AS PLANNED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST.  MODELS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT AS THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW HOUR BREAK OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
THIS CONVECTION AS IT WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
12Z.  THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPES LOOK TO BE APPROX 500
J/KG SO NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE CONVECTION.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY MORNING...DRIVING THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THIS
EVENT AND COULD SEE AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES IF CONVECTION REACHES
INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING.  WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...SEEMS LIKE AN AWFULLY SMALL TIME PERIOD FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE BEST BET MAY BE TO HAVE STORMS CONTINUOUSLY REFIRE
ALONG THE TAIL OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS ADMITTEDLY SEEMS LIKE
A SMALL CHANCE SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER
BY THIS TIME...AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SQUASHED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.  WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL BUT LEAVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SOME LINGERING PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE MON EVENING...MAINLY OVER E-C
WI. CARRIED CHC POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE ISOLD SHRA
COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NGT...THE MAIN POOL OF INSTABILITY WL
BE WELL S BY THEN...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT.

THERE ARE PROS AND CONS FOR PCPN CHCS TUE. ON ONE HAND...UPR TROF
WL STILL BE ACRS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND WNWLY UPR FLOW
WL KEEP MODEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ACRS THE RGN. ON THE OTHER...
UPR HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...AND QG FORCING
WL BE FAVORING SUBSIDENCE. OPTED TO KEEP FAIRLY LOW POPS...BUT
WENT WITH ISOLD SHRA ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA.
PCPN UNLIKELY TO BE A BIG DEAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TOTALLY DRY DAY
ISN/T THAT GREAT EITHER.

UPR HEIGHTS SHOULD CONT TO RISE TUE NGT/WED. STAYED DRY TUE NGT...
BUT N-C WI WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE RETURN FLOW TO JUSTIFY
HAVING A CHC OF TSRA WED.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF TOP PERFORING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS...
WHICH WERE DOMINATED BY THE ECMWF AND IT/S MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED
DERIVATIVES.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT LAKESHORE AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STROMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADDED SOME LLWS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MON AFTN. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TE
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 010003
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
703 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FOR
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

STG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS THE SRN CONUS WL EXPAND NWD A BIT AS
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES GRADUALLY RECEDES NWD
DURING THE PERIOD. NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT THIS PATTERN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AS THE WESTERLIES ARE TYPICALLY STRONGER THAN
DURING THE MIDDLE SUMMER...BUT ARE STILL USUALLY CENTERED N OF THE
AREA.

THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SEPARATING WARM AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL
AIR TO THE S FM COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE N WL REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...AND
CLOSE TO THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. THIS WL RESULT IN
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...LIKELY RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL
AMNTS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL
ALSO BE HUMID AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE DUE IN
PART TO A PRONOUNCED CAP AND DRY AIR ON THE 18Z MINNEAPOLIS
SOUNDING.  HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.  THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN
WYOMING AND ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT WAITS FOR A SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING TO GIVE
IT A FORWARD PUSH.  ASSUMING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DEVELOPS AS PLANNED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST.  MODELS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT AS THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW HOUR BREAK OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
THIS CONVECTION AS IT WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
12Z.  THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPES LOOK TO BE APPROX 500
J/KG SO NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE CONVECTION.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY MORNING...DRIVING THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THIS
EVENT AND COULD SEE AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES IF CONVECTION REACHES
INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING.  WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...SEEMS LIKE AN AWFULLY SMALL TIME PERIOD FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE BEST BET MAY BE TO HAVE STORMS CONTINUOUSLY REFIRE
ALONG THE TAIL OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS ADMITTEDLY SEEMS LIKE
A SMALL CHANCE SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER
BY THIS TIME...AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SQUASHED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.  WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL BUT LEAVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SOME LINGERING PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE MON EVENING...MAINLY OVER E-C
WI. CARRIED CHC POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE ISOLD SHRA
COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NGT...THE MAIN POOL OF INSTABILITY WL
BE WELL S BY THEN...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT.

THERE ARE PROS AND CONS FOR PCPN CHCS TUE. ON ONE HAND...UPR TROF
WL STILL BE ACRS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND WNWLY UPR FLOW
WL KEEP MODEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ACRS THE RGN. ON THE OTHER...
UPR HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...AND QG FORCING
WL BE FAVORING SUBSIDENCE. OPTED TO KEEP FAIRLY LOW POPS...BUT
WENT WITH ISOLD SHRA ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA.
PCPN UNLIKELY TO BE A BIG DEAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TOTALLY DRY DAY
ISN/T THAT GREAT EITHER.

UPR HEIGHTS SHOULD CONT TO RISE TUE NGT/WED. STAYED DRY TUE NGT...
BUT N-C WI WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE RETURN FLOW TO JUSTIFY
HAVING A CHC OF TSRA WED.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF TOP PERFORING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS...
WHICH WERE DOMINATED BY THE ECMWF AND IT/S MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED
DERIVATIVES.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR STRATUS HAS MOVED OFF LAKE INTO LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND PARTS
FOX VALLEY. INCREASING WINDS AT LOW LEVELS MID TO LATE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINSH THIS STRATUS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED TS TO TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE...THOUGH
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF TAF SITES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT GIVEN MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN WI. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 010003
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
703 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FOR
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

STG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS THE SRN CONUS WL EXPAND NWD A BIT AS
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES GRADUALLY RECEDES NWD
DURING THE PERIOD. NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT THIS PATTERN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AS THE WESTERLIES ARE TYPICALLY STRONGER THAN
DURING THE MIDDLE SUMMER...BUT ARE STILL USUALLY CENTERED N OF THE
AREA.

THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SEPARATING WARM AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL
AIR TO THE S FM COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE N WL REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...AND
CLOSE TO THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. THIS WL RESULT IN
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...LIKELY RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL
AMNTS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL
ALSO BE HUMID AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE DUE IN
PART TO A PRONOUNCED CAP AND DRY AIR ON THE 18Z MINNEAPOLIS
SOUNDING.  HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.  THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN
WYOMING AND ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT WAITS FOR A SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING TO GIVE
IT A FORWARD PUSH.  ASSUMING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DEVELOPS AS PLANNED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST.  MODELS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT AS THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW HOUR BREAK OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
THIS CONVECTION AS IT WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
12Z.  THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPES LOOK TO BE APPROX 500
J/KG SO NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE CONVECTION.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY MORNING...DRIVING THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THIS
EVENT AND COULD SEE AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES IF CONVECTION REACHES
INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING.  WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...SEEMS LIKE AN AWFULLY SMALL TIME PERIOD FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE BEST BET MAY BE TO HAVE STORMS CONTINUOUSLY REFIRE
ALONG THE TAIL OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS ADMITTEDLY SEEMS LIKE
A SMALL CHANCE SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER
BY THIS TIME...AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SQUASHED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.  WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL BUT LEAVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SOME LINGERING PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE MON EVENING...MAINLY OVER E-C
WI. CARRIED CHC POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE ISOLD SHRA
COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NGT...THE MAIN POOL OF INSTABILITY WL
BE WELL S BY THEN...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT.

THERE ARE PROS AND CONS FOR PCPN CHCS TUE. ON ONE HAND...UPR TROF
WL STILL BE ACRS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND WNWLY UPR FLOW
WL KEEP MODEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ACRS THE RGN. ON THE OTHER...
UPR HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...AND QG FORCING
WL BE FAVORING SUBSIDENCE. OPTED TO KEEP FAIRLY LOW POPS...BUT
WENT WITH ISOLD SHRA ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA.
PCPN UNLIKELY TO BE A BIG DEAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TOTALLY DRY DAY
ISN/T THAT GREAT EITHER.

UPR HEIGHTS SHOULD CONT TO RISE TUE NGT/WED. STAYED DRY TUE NGT...
BUT N-C WI WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE RETURN FLOW TO JUSTIFY
HAVING A CHC OF TSRA WED.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF TOP PERFORING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS...
WHICH WERE DOMINATED BY THE ECMWF AND IT/S MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED
DERIVATIVES.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR STRATUS HAS MOVED OFF LAKE INTO LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND PARTS
FOX VALLEY. INCREASING WINDS AT LOW LEVELS MID TO LATE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINSH THIS STRATUS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED TS TO TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE...THOUGH
CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF TAF SITES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT GIVEN MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN WI. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 311918
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FOR
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

STG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS THE SRN CONUS WL EXPAND NWD A BIT AS
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES GRADUALLY RECEDES NWD
DURING THE PERIOD. NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT THIS PATTERN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AS THE WESTERLIES ARE TYPICALLY STRONGER THAN
DURING THE MIDDLE SUMMER...BUT ARE STILL USUALLY CENTERED N OF THE
AREA.

THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SEPARATING WARM AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL
AIR TO THE S FM COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE N WL REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...AND
CLOSE TO THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. THIS WL RESULT IN
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...LIKELY RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL
AMNTS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL
ALSO BE HUMID AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE DUE IN
PART TO A PRONOUNCED CAP AND DRY AIR ON THE 18Z MINNEAPOLIS
SOUNDING.  HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.  THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN
WYOMING AND ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT WAITS FOR A SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING TO GIVE
IT A FORWARD PUSH.  ASSUMING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DEVELOPS AS PLANNED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST.  MODELS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT AS THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW HOUR BREAK OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
THIS CONVECTION AS IT WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
12Z.  THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPES LOOK TO BE APPROX 500
J/KG SO NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE CONVECTION.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY MORNING...DRIVING THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THIS
EVENT AND COULD SEE AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES IF CONVECTION REACHES
INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING.  WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...SEEMS LIKE AN AWFULLY SMALL TIME PERIOD FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE BEST BET MAY BE TO HAVE STORMS CONTINUOUSLY REFIRE
ALONG THE TAIL OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS ADMITTEDLY SEEMS LIKE
A SMALL CHANCE SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER
BY THIS TIME...AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SQUASHED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.  WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL BUT LEAVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SOME LINGERING PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE MON EVENING...MAINLY OVER E-C
WI. CARRIED CHC POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE ISOLD SHRA
COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NGT...THE MAIN POOL OF INSTABILITY WL
BE WELL S BY THEN...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT.

THERE ARE PROS AND CONS FOR PCPN CHCS TUE. ON ONE HAND...UPR TROF
WL STILL BE ACRS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND WNWLY UPR FLOW
WL KEEP MODEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ACRS THE RGN. ON THE OTHER...
UPR HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...AND QG FORCING
WL BE FAVORING SUBSIDENCE. OPTED TO KEEP FAIRLY LOW POPS...BUT
WENT WITH ISOLD SHRA ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA.
PCPN UNLIKELY TO BE A BIG DEAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TOTALLY DRY DAY
ISN/T THAT GREAT EITHER.

UPR HEIGHTS SHOULD CONT TO RISE TUE NGT/WED. STAYED DRY TUE NGT...
BUT N-C WI WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE RETURN FLOW TO JUSTIFY
HAVING A CHC OF TSRA WED.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF TOP PERFORING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS...
WHICH WERE DOMINATED BY THE ECMWF AND IT/S MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED
DERIVATIVES.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND IFR STRATUS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
AT THE AREA TAF SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS A FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT....BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY TIMING/COVERAGE...HAVE LEFT
PRECIP AS SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 311918
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FOR
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

STG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS THE SRN CONUS WL EXPAND NWD A BIT AS
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES GRADUALLY RECEDES NWD
DURING THE PERIOD. NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT THIS PATTERN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AS THE WESTERLIES ARE TYPICALLY STRONGER THAN
DURING THE MIDDLE SUMMER...BUT ARE STILL USUALLY CENTERED N OF THE
AREA.

THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SEPARATING WARM AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL
AIR TO THE S FM COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE N WL REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...AND
CLOSE TO THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. THIS WL RESULT IN
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...LIKELY RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL
AMNTS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL
ALSO BE HUMID AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE DUE IN
PART TO A PRONOUNCED CAP AND DRY AIR ON THE 18Z MINNEAPOLIS
SOUNDING.  HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.  THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN
WYOMING AND ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT WAITS FOR A SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING TO GIVE
IT A FORWARD PUSH.  ASSUMING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DEVELOPS AS PLANNED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST.  MODELS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT AS THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW HOUR BREAK OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
THIS CONVECTION AS IT WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
12Z.  THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPES LOOK TO BE APPROX 500
J/KG SO NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE CONVECTION.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY MORNING...DRIVING THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THIS
EVENT AND COULD SEE AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES IF CONVECTION REACHES
INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING.  WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...SEEMS LIKE AN AWFULLY SMALL TIME PERIOD FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  THE BEST BET MAY BE TO HAVE STORMS CONTINUOUSLY REFIRE
ALONG THE TAIL OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS ADMITTEDLY SEEMS LIKE
A SMALL CHANCE SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER
BY THIS TIME...AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SQUASHED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.  WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL BUT LEAVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SOME LINGERING PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE MON EVENING...MAINLY OVER E-C
WI. CARRIED CHC POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE ISOLD SHRA
COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NGT...THE MAIN POOL OF INSTABILITY WL
BE WELL S BY THEN...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT.

THERE ARE PROS AND CONS FOR PCPN CHCS TUE. ON ONE HAND...UPR TROF
WL STILL BE ACRS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND WNWLY UPR FLOW
WL KEEP MODEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ACRS THE RGN. ON THE OTHER...
UPR HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...AND QG FORCING
WL BE FAVORING SUBSIDENCE. OPTED TO KEEP FAIRLY LOW POPS...BUT
WENT WITH ISOLD SHRA ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA.
PCPN UNLIKELY TO BE A BIG DEAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TOTALLY DRY DAY
ISN/T THAT GREAT EITHER.

UPR HEIGHTS SHOULD CONT TO RISE TUE NGT/WED. STAYED DRY TUE NGT...
BUT N-C WI WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE RETURN FLOW TO JUSTIFY
HAVING A CHC OF TSRA WED.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF TOP PERFORING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS...
WHICH WERE DOMINATED BY THE ECMWF AND IT/S MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED
DERIVATIVES.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND IFR STRATUS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
AT THE AREA TAF SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS A FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT....BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY TIMING/COVERAGE...HAVE LEFT
PRECIP AS SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 311658
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1158 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEPARTED FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPACT VORT CENTER IN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS MORNING AND FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY. HOWEVER
AT 08Z...PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD BACK INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AT A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR NOW.
STILL ANTICIPATE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE RECENT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH AN SPS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...RETURN WAA
FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSES RATES AND CAPE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE MID LAYERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL STILL HOLD OFF
CONVECTION MENTION UNTIL THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...MORNING DATA SUGGESTS THE BRUNT OF
THE LLJ DYNAMICS CONFINED TO AREAS TO THE WEST BUT INSTABILITY
DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE JET
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SLIDING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY...WITH THE INCREASING UPPER JET AXIS SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD LATER MONDAY. DEEP SHEAR LIKELY ON THE INCREASE AS WELL
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE STATE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
PRIMARY THREATS IN THE MORNING HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS SHOWED
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM HOLDING ONTO QPF IN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DRY. HAVE
LEFT SOME SMALL POPS...MAINLY IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. MODELS INDICATED SOME
QPF WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS. THERE WERE DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THINGS DO NOT LOOK ANY MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK SO DO NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED
FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND IFR STRATUS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
AT THE AREA TAF SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS A FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT....BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY TIMING/COVERAGE...HAVE LEFT
PRECIP AS SHOWERS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SOME STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED SOME SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ROSE TO BANK FULL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
THE MAIN RIVER STEMS WERE ABLE TO HANDLE THE 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT ALSO RISING. WILL HAVE A 24-36 HOUR BREAK BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PASSES OVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SYSTEM APPEARS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE SLOW SYSTEM THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. APPEARS A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE LLJ WITH THE PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS LATE TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED OVER MINNESOTA AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND THEN THE UPPER JET SUPPORT LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
IN. DYNAMICS WOULD SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 311658
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1158 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEPARTED FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPACT VORT CENTER IN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS MORNING AND FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY. HOWEVER
AT 08Z...PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD BACK INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AT A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR NOW.
STILL ANTICIPATE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE RECENT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH AN SPS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...RETURN WAA
FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSES RATES AND CAPE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE MID LAYERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL STILL HOLD OFF
CONVECTION MENTION UNTIL THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...MORNING DATA SUGGESTS THE BRUNT OF
THE LLJ DYNAMICS CONFINED TO AREAS TO THE WEST BUT INSTABILITY
DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE JET
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SLIDING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY...WITH THE INCREASING UPPER JET AXIS SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD LATER MONDAY. DEEP SHEAR LIKELY ON THE INCREASE AS WELL
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE STATE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
PRIMARY THREATS IN THE MORNING HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS SHOWED
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM HOLDING ONTO QPF IN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DRY. HAVE
LEFT SOME SMALL POPS...MAINLY IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. MODELS INDICATED SOME
QPF WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS. THERE WERE DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THINGS DO NOT LOOK ANY MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK SO DO NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED
FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND IFR STRATUS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
AT THE AREA TAF SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS A FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...WILL DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT....BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY TIMING/COVERAGE...HAVE LEFT
PRECIP AS SHOWERS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SOME STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED SOME SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ROSE TO BANK FULL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
THE MAIN RIVER STEMS WERE ABLE TO HANDLE THE 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT ALSO RISING. WILL HAVE A 24-36 HOUR BREAK BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PASSES OVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SYSTEM APPEARS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE SLOW SYSTEM THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. APPEARS A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE LLJ WITH THE PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS LATE TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED OVER MINNESOTA AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND THEN THE UPPER JET SUPPORT LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
IN. DYNAMICS WOULD SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 311124
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
624 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEPARTED FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPACT VORT CENTER IN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS MORNING AND FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY. HOWEVER
AT 08Z...PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD BACK INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AT A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR NOW.
STILL ANTICIPATE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE RECENT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH AN SPS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...RETURN WAA
FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSES RATES AND CAPE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE MID LAYERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL STILL HOLD OFF
CONVECTION MENTION UNTIL THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...MORNING DATA SUGGESTS THE BRUNT OF
THE LLJ DYNAMICS CONFINED TO AREAS TO THE WEST BUT INSTABILITY
DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE JET
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SLIDING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY...WITH THE INCREASING UPPER JET AXIS SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD LATER MONDAY. DEEP SHEAR LIKELY ON THE INCREASE AS WELL
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE STATE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
PRIMARY THREATS IN THE MORNING HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS SHOWED
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM HOLDING ONTO QPF IN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DRY. HAVE
LEFT SOME SMALL POPS...MAINLY IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. MODELS INDICATED SOME
QPF WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS. THERE WERE DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THINGS DO NOT LOOK ANY MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK SO DO NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED
FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE
RECENT RAINS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR
STRATUS CLOUDS ALSO REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO FOG OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. EVENTUALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN TURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SOME STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED SOME SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ROSE TO BANK FULL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
THE MAIN RIVER STEMS WERE ABLE TO HANDLE THE 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT ALSO RISING. WILL HAVE A 24-36 HOUR BREAK BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PASSES OVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SYSTEM APPEARS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE SLOW SYSTEM THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. APPEARS A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE LLJ WITH THE PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS LATE TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED OVER MINNESOTA AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND THEN THE UPPER JET SUPPORT LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
IN. DYNAMICS WOULD SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 311124
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
624 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEPARTED FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPACT VORT CENTER IN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS MORNING AND FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY. HOWEVER
AT 08Z...PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD BACK INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AT A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR NOW.
STILL ANTICIPATE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE RECENT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH AN SPS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...RETURN WAA
FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSES RATES AND CAPE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE MID LAYERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL STILL HOLD OFF
CONVECTION MENTION UNTIL THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...MORNING DATA SUGGESTS THE BRUNT OF
THE LLJ DYNAMICS CONFINED TO AREAS TO THE WEST BUT INSTABILITY
DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE JET
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SLIDING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY...WITH THE INCREASING UPPER JET AXIS SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD LATER MONDAY. DEEP SHEAR LIKELY ON THE INCREASE AS WELL
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE STATE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
PRIMARY THREATS IN THE MORNING HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS SHOWED
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM HOLDING ONTO QPF IN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DRY. HAVE
LEFT SOME SMALL POPS...MAINLY IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. MODELS INDICATED SOME
QPF WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS. THERE WERE DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THINGS DO NOT LOOK ANY MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK SO DO NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED
FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE
RECENT RAINS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR
STRATUS CLOUDS ALSO REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO FOG OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. EVENTUALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN TURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SOME STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED SOME SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ROSE TO BANK FULL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
THE MAIN RIVER STEMS WERE ABLE TO HANDLE THE 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT ALSO RISING. WILL HAVE A 24-36 HOUR BREAK BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PASSES OVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SYSTEM APPEARS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE SLOW SYSTEM THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. APPEARS A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE LLJ WITH THE PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS LATE TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED OVER MINNESOTA AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND THEN THE UPPER JET SUPPORT LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
IN. DYNAMICS WOULD SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 310853
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEPARTED FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPACT VORT CENTER IN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS MORNING AND FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY. HOWEVER
AT 08Z...PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD BACK INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AT A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR NOW.
STILL ANTICIPATE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE RECENT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH AN SPS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...RETURN WAA
FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSES RATES AND CAPE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE MID LAYERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL STILL HOLD OFF
CONVECTION MENTION UNTIL THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...MORNING DATA SUGGESTS THE BRUNT OF
THE LLJ DYNAMICS CONFINED TO AREAS TO THE WEST BUT INSTABILITY
DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE JET
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SLIDING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY...WITH THE INCREASING UPPER JET AXIS SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD LATER MONDAY. DEEP SHEAR LIKELY ON THE INCREASE AS WELL
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE STATE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
PRIMARY THREATS IN THE MORNING HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS SHOWED
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM HOLDING ONTO QPF IN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DRY. HAVE
LEFT SOME SMALL POPS...MAINLY IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. MODELS INDICATED SOME
QPF WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS. THERE WERE DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THINGS DO NOT LOOK ANY MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK SO DO NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED
FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUESTIONS WILL BE CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE
THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECT ANY CLEARING WILL BE REPLACED BY IFR CIGS AND/OR VISBY
CLEARING BY MID DAY SUNDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE
ARREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ONCE
MORE...THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF PCPN TIL AFTER 06Z.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SOME STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED SOME SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ROSE TO BANK FULL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
THE MAIN RIVER STEMS WERE ABLE TO HANDLE THE 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT ALSO RISING. WILL HAVE A 24-36 HOUR BREAK BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PASSES OVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SYSTEM APPEARS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE SLOW SYSTEM THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. APPEARS A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE LLJ WITH THE PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS LATE TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED OVER MINNESOTA AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND THEN THE UPPER JET SUPPORT LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
IN. DYNAMICS WOULD SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 310853
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEPARTED FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE COMPACT VORT CENTER IN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS DID CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS MORNING AND FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY. HOWEVER
AT 08Z...PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD BACK INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG AT A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR NOW.
STILL ANTICIPATE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE RECENT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH AN SPS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...RETURN WAA
FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSES RATES AND CAPE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE MID LAYERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL STILL HOLD OFF
CONVECTION MENTION UNTIL THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...MORNING DATA SUGGESTS THE BRUNT OF
THE LLJ DYNAMICS CONFINED TO AREAS TO THE WEST BUT INSTABILITY
DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE JET
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SLIDING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY...WITH THE INCREASING UPPER JET AXIS SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD LATER MONDAY. DEEP SHEAR LIKELY ON THE INCREASE AS WELL
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE STATE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
PRIMARY THREATS IN THE MORNING HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS SHOWED
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM HOLDING ONTO QPF IN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS DRY. HAVE
LEFT SOME SMALL POPS...MAINLY IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. MODELS INDICATED SOME
QPF WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS. THERE WERE DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THINGS DO NOT LOOK ANY MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK SO DO NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED
FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUESTIONS WILL BE CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE
THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECT ANY CLEARING WILL BE REPLACED BY IFR CIGS AND/OR VISBY
CLEARING BY MID DAY SUNDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE
ARREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ONCE
MORE...THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF PCPN TIL AFTER 06Z.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SOME STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED SOME SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ROSE TO BANK FULL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
THE MAIN RIVER STEMS WERE ABLE TO HANDLE THE 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT ALSO RISING. WILL HAVE A 24-36 HOUR BREAK BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PASSES OVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SYSTEM APPEARS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE SLOW SYSTEM THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. APPEARS A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE LLJ WITH THE PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS LATE TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED OVER MINNESOTA AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND THEN THE UPPER JET SUPPORT LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
IN. DYNAMICS WOULD SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 310355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACRS
NOAM. BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS ACRS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN
CANADA. THOSE WL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SAG SWD DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN AND RECEDE NWD DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...
BRINGING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL ALSO BE
HUMID AT TIMES. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ABV NORMAL PCPN
AMNTS...THOUGH TIMING OF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT AFTER
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SEVERAL CONCERNS TO DEAL WITH...MAINLY DURING THE TNGT PART OF THE
FCST. THESE CONCERNS INCLUDE: WHEN TO END THE PCPN CHCS...HOW MUCH
FOG WL DEVELOP AND MIN TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES JUST SOUTH
OF ESC WITH A CDFNT STRETCHED SWD ALONG THE WRN SHORES OF LAKE MI
AND A SECONDARY TROF EXTENDED W-SW THRU SW WI. FARTHER WEST...A
RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED FROM WRN ONTARIO SWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A PLETHORA OF CLOUDS OVER WI ROTATING
AROUND A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOCAL
RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHWRS
OVER THE ERN THREE-QUARTERS OF WI WITH A STEADY E-NE MOVEMENT.

THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO STILL CROSS WI
THIS EVENING AND MAY HAVE TO LINGER A POP AT LEAST OVER ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY
HIGH. ONCE THESE FEATURES DEPART OVRNGT...WEAK RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
AND MODEST DRYING COULD BRIEFT BREAK THE CLOUD COVER UP...HOWEVER
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAIN
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND
THE MIDNGT HOUR AND COULD BECOME QUITE THICK TOWARD DAYBREAK
MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL WI WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OCCURRED. NO HEADLINES YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
NORTH...MID TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...LEAVING SOME SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. DO EXPECT TO SEE
MID/HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO APPROACH CNTRL WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NORTH...AROUND 80
DEGS SOUTH (COOLER NEAR LAKE MI).

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHRTWV PROGRESSING EWD FM THE NRN PLAINS WL GENERATE CYCLONE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. THE NAM SEEMED WAY OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE AND WAS DISCOUNTED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
FOR SVR STORMS TO FIRE OUT TO THE WEST SUN AFTN/EVENING...THEN
MOVE EAST. THEY SHOULD BE WEAKENING BEFORE THEY ARRIVE IN THE
AREA...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SVR WINDS/HAIL SUN NGT...ESP AS LLJ
GETS DIRECTED INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA LATE SUN NGT. THE
STORMS WL LIKELY STILL BE ACRS THE AREA MON MORNING...THEN THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THEY EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MON AFTN/EVE. THE ECMWF IS A DEFINITE NO-
VOTE. IT/S SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE LEAD CONVECTION AND FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SHORTENS THE WINDOW BETWEEN CONVECTIVE
EVENTS ON BOTH SITES...LEAVING LITTLE TIME FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY.
LITTLE ENDED UP HAPPENING ACRS THE FCST AREA IN A SIMILAR
SCENARIO THIS PAST MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS FM
PREV FCST...BUT WL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN AND FOREGO PLAYING
UP MON AFTN/EVE SVR RISK IN THE HWO.

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS BECOMES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN LATER
PERIODS. THAT SHOWS ITSELF ALREADY TUE. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE
MODELS STILL GENERATED PCPN...THE TREND ON MOST WAS TO HAVE THE
FCST AREA DRY AND BTWN SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH IT/S HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PCPN...GIVEN RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGE CROSSING
THE AREA...THE SUPPORT FOR SIG PCPN IS LOW...TO TRIMMED POPS.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUESTIONS WILL BE CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE
THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECT ANY CLEARING WILL BE REPLACED BY IFR CIGS AND/OR VISBY
CLEARING BY MID DAY SUNDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE
ARREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ONCE
MORE...THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF PCPN TIL AFTER 06Z. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE









000
FXUS63 KGRB 310355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACRS
NOAM. BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS ACRS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN
CANADA. THOSE WL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SAG SWD DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN AND RECEDE NWD DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...
BRINGING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL ALSO BE
HUMID AT TIMES. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ABV NORMAL PCPN
AMNTS...THOUGH TIMING OF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT AFTER
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SEVERAL CONCERNS TO DEAL WITH...MAINLY DURING THE TNGT PART OF THE
FCST. THESE CONCERNS INCLUDE: WHEN TO END THE PCPN CHCS...HOW MUCH
FOG WL DEVELOP AND MIN TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES JUST SOUTH
OF ESC WITH A CDFNT STRETCHED SWD ALONG THE WRN SHORES OF LAKE MI
AND A SECONDARY TROF EXTENDED W-SW THRU SW WI. FARTHER WEST...A
RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED FROM WRN ONTARIO SWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A PLETHORA OF CLOUDS OVER WI ROTATING
AROUND A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOCAL
RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHWRS
OVER THE ERN THREE-QUARTERS OF WI WITH A STEADY E-NE MOVEMENT.

THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO STILL CROSS WI
THIS EVENING AND MAY HAVE TO LINGER A POP AT LEAST OVER ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY
HIGH. ONCE THESE FEATURES DEPART OVRNGT...WEAK RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
AND MODEST DRYING COULD BRIEFT BREAK THE CLOUD COVER UP...HOWEVER
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAIN
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND
THE MIDNGT HOUR AND COULD BECOME QUITE THICK TOWARD DAYBREAK
MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL WI WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OCCURRED. NO HEADLINES YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
NORTH...MID TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...LEAVING SOME SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. DO EXPECT TO SEE
MID/HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO APPROACH CNTRL WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NORTH...AROUND 80
DEGS SOUTH (COOLER NEAR LAKE MI).

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHRTWV PROGRESSING EWD FM THE NRN PLAINS WL GENERATE CYCLONE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. THE NAM SEEMED WAY OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE AND WAS DISCOUNTED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
FOR SVR STORMS TO FIRE OUT TO THE WEST SUN AFTN/EVENING...THEN
MOVE EAST. THEY SHOULD BE WEAKENING BEFORE THEY ARRIVE IN THE
AREA...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SVR WINDS/HAIL SUN NGT...ESP AS LLJ
GETS DIRECTED INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA LATE SUN NGT. THE
STORMS WL LIKELY STILL BE ACRS THE AREA MON MORNING...THEN THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THEY EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MON AFTN/EVE. THE ECMWF IS A DEFINITE NO-
VOTE. IT/S SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE LEAD CONVECTION AND FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SHORTENS THE WINDOW BETWEEN CONVECTIVE
EVENTS ON BOTH SITES...LEAVING LITTLE TIME FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY.
LITTLE ENDED UP HAPPENING ACRS THE FCST AREA IN A SIMILAR
SCENARIO THIS PAST MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS FM
PREV FCST...BUT WL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN AND FOREGO PLAYING
UP MON AFTN/EVE SVR RISK IN THE HWO.

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS BECOMES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN LATER
PERIODS. THAT SHOWS ITSELF ALREADY TUE. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE
MODELS STILL GENERATED PCPN...THE TREND ON MOST WAS TO HAVE THE
FCST AREA DRY AND BTWN SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH IT/S HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PCPN...GIVEN RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGE CROSSING
THE AREA...THE SUPPORT FOR SIG PCPN IS LOW...TO TRIMMED POPS.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUESTIONS WILL BE CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE
THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECT ANY CLEARING WILL BE REPLACED BY IFR CIGS AND/OR VISBY
CLEARING BY MID DAY SUNDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE
ARREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ONCE
MORE...THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF PCPN TIL AFTER 06Z. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 302338
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACRS
NOAM. BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS ACRS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN
CANADA. THOSE WL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SAG SWD DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN AND RECEDE NWD DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...
BRINGING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL ALSO BE
HUMID AT TIMES. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ABV NORMAL PCPN
AMNTS...THOUGH TIMING OF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT AFTER
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SEVERAL CONCERNS TO DEAL WITH...MAINLY DURING THE TNGT PART OF THE
FCST. THESE CONCERNS INCLUDE: WHEN TO END THE PCPN CHCS...HOW MUCH
FOG WL DEVELOP AND MIN TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES JUST SOUTH
OF ESC WITH A CDFNT STRETCHED SWD ALONG THE WRN SHORES OF LAKE MI
AND A SECONDARY TROF EXTENDED W-SW THRU SW WI. FARTHER WEST...A
RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED FROM WRN ONTARIO SWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A PLETHORA OF CLOUDS OVER WI ROTATING
AROUND A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOCAL
RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHWRS
OVER THE ERN THREE-QUARTERS OF WI WITH A STEADY E-NE MOVEMENT.

THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO STILL CROSS WI
THIS EVENING AND MAY HAVE TO LINGER A POP AT LEAST OVER ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY
HIGH. ONCE THESE FEATURES DEPART OVRNGT...WEAK RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
AND MODEST DRYING COULD BRIEFT BREAK THE CLOUD COVER UP...HOWEVER
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAIN
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND
THE MIDNGT HOUR AND COULD BECOME QUITE THICK TOWARD DAYBREAK
MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL WI WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OCCURRED. NO HEADLINES YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
NORTH...MID TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...LEAVING SOME SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. DO EXPECT TO SEE
MID/HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO APPROACH CNTRL WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NORTH...AROUND 80
DEGS SOUTH (COOLER NEAR LAKE MI).

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHRTWV PROGRESSING EWD FM THE NRN PLAINS WL GENERATE CYCLONE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. THE NAM SEEMED WAY OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE AND WAS DISCOUNTED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
FOR SVR STORMS TO FIRE OUT TO THE WEST SUN AFTN/EVENING...THEN
MOVE EAST. THEY SHOULD BE WEAKENING BEFORE THEY ARRIVE IN THE
AREA...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SVR WINDS/HAIL SUN NGT...ESP AS LLJ
GETS DIRECTED INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA LATE SUN NGT. THE
STORMS WL LIKELY STILL BE ACRS THE AREA MON MORNING...THEN THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THEY EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MON AFTN/EVE. THE ECMWF IS A DEFINITE NO-
VOTE. IT/S SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE LEAD CONVECTION AND FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SHORTENS THE WINDOW BETWEEN CONVECTIVE
EVENTS ON BOTH SITES...LEAVING LITTLE TIME FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY.
LITTLE ENDED UP HAPPENING ACRS THE FCST AREA IN A SIMILAR
SCENARIO THIS PAST MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS FM
PREV FCST...BUT WL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN AND FOREGO PLAYING
UP MON AFTN/EVE SVR RISK IN THE HWO.

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS BECOMES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN LATER
PERIODS. THAT SHOWS ITSELF ALREADY TUE. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE
MODELS STILL GENERATED PCPN...THE TREND ON MOST WAS TO HAVE THE
FCST AREA DRY AND BTWN SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH IT/S HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PCPN...GIVEN RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGE CROSSING
THE AREA...THE SUPPORT FOR SIG PCPN IS LOW...TO TRIMMED POPS.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER TROF MOVING OVER STATE AT THIS TIME. WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING/EXITING EASTERN WI AT 00Z. QUESTIONS WILL BY CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. SOME BREAKS SEEN IN
CLOUD COVER ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT ANY CLEARING
WILL BE REPLACED BY IFR CIGS AND/OR VISBY CLEARING BY MID DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 302338
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACRS
NOAM. BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS ACRS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN
CANADA. THOSE WL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SAG SWD DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN AND RECEDE NWD DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...
BRINGING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL ALSO BE
HUMID AT TIMES. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ABV NORMAL PCPN
AMNTS...THOUGH TIMING OF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT AFTER
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SEVERAL CONCERNS TO DEAL WITH...MAINLY DURING THE TNGT PART OF THE
FCST. THESE CONCERNS INCLUDE: WHEN TO END THE PCPN CHCS...HOW MUCH
FOG WL DEVELOP AND MIN TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES JUST SOUTH
OF ESC WITH A CDFNT STRETCHED SWD ALONG THE WRN SHORES OF LAKE MI
AND A SECONDARY TROF EXTENDED W-SW THRU SW WI. FARTHER WEST...A
RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED FROM WRN ONTARIO SWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A PLETHORA OF CLOUDS OVER WI ROTATING
AROUND A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOCAL
RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHWRS
OVER THE ERN THREE-QUARTERS OF WI WITH A STEADY E-NE MOVEMENT.

THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO STILL CROSS WI
THIS EVENING AND MAY HAVE TO LINGER A POP AT LEAST OVER ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY
HIGH. ONCE THESE FEATURES DEPART OVRNGT...WEAK RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
AND MODEST DRYING COULD BRIEFT BREAK THE CLOUD COVER UP...HOWEVER
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAIN
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND
THE MIDNGT HOUR AND COULD BECOME QUITE THICK TOWARD DAYBREAK
MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL WI WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OCCURRED. NO HEADLINES YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
NORTH...MID TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...LEAVING SOME SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. DO EXPECT TO SEE
MID/HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO APPROACH CNTRL WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NORTH...AROUND 80
DEGS SOUTH (COOLER NEAR LAKE MI).

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHRTWV PROGRESSING EWD FM THE NRN PLAINS WL GENERATE CYCLONE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. THE NAM SEEMED WAY OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE AND WAS DISCOUNTED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
FOR SVR STORMS TO FIRE OUT TO THE WEST SUN AFTN/EVENING...THEN
MOVE EAST. THEY SHOULD BE WEAKENING BEFORE THEY ARRIVE IN THE
AREA...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SVR WINDS/HAIL SUN NGT...ESP AS LLJ
GETS DIRECTED INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA LATE SUN NGT. THE
STORMS WL LIKELY STILL BE ACRS THE AREA MON MORNING...THEN THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THEY EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MON AFTN/EVE. THE ECMWF IS A DEFINITE NO-
VOTE. IT/S SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE LEAD CONVECTION AND FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SHORTENS THE WINDOW BETWEEN CONVECTIVE
EVENTS ON BOTH SITES...LEAVING LITTLE TIME FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY.
LITTLE ENDED UP HAPPENING ACRS THE FCST AREA IN A SIMILAR
SCENARIO THIS PAST MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS FM
PREV FCST...BUT WL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN AND FOREGO PLAYING
UP MON AFTN/EVE SVR RISK IN THE HWO.

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS BECOMES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN LATER
PERIODS. THAT SHOWS ITSELF ALREADY TUE. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE
MODELS STILL GENERATED PCPN...THE TREND ON MOST WAS TO HAVE THE
FCST AREA DRY AND BTWN SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH IT/S HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PCPN...GIVEN RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGE CROSSING
THE AREA...THE SUPPORT FOR SIG PCPN IS LOW...TO TRIMMED POPS.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER TROF MOVING OVER STATE AT THIS TIME. WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING/EXITING EASTERN WI AT 00Z. QUESTIONS WILL BY CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. SOME BREAKS SEEN IN
CLOUD COVER ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT ANY CLEARING
WILL BE REPLACED BY IFR CIGS AND/OR VISBY CLEARING BY MID DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE









000
FXUS63 KGRB 302030
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACRS
NOAM. BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS ACRS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN
CANADA. THOSE WL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SAG SWD DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN AND RECEDE NWD DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...
BRINGING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL ALSO BE
HUMID AT TIMES. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ABV NORMAL PCPN
AMNTS...THOUGH TIMING OF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT AFTER
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SEVERAL CONCERNS TO DEAL WITH...MAINLY DURING THE TNGT PART OF THE
FCST. THESE CONCERNS INCLUDE: WHEN TO END THE PCPN CHCS...HOW MUCH
FOG WL DEVELOP AND MIN TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES JUST SOUTH
OF ESC WITH A CDFNT STRETCHED SWD ALONG THE WRN SHORES OF LAKE MI
AND A SECONDARY TROF EXTENDED W-SW THRU SW WI. FARTHER WEST...A
RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED FROM WRN ONTARIO SWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A PLETHORA OF CLOUDS OVER WI ROTATING
AROUND A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOCAL
RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHWRS
OVER THE ERN THREE-QUARTERS OF WI WITH A STEADY E-NE MOVEMENT.

THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO STILL CROSS WI
THIS EVENING AND MAY HAVE TO LINGER A POP AT LEAST OVER ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY
HIGH. ONCE THESE FEATURES DEPART OVRNGT...WEAK RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
AND MODEST DRYING COULD BRIEFT BREAK THE CLOUD COVER UP...HOWEVER
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAIN
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND
THE MIDNGT HOUR AND COULD BECOME QUITE THICK TOWARD DAYBREAK
MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL WI WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OCCURRED. NO HEADLINES YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
NORTH...MID TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...LEAVING SOME SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. DO EXPECT TO SEE
MID/HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO APPROACH CNTRL WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NORTH...AROUND 80
DEGS SOUTH (COOLER NEAR LAKE MI).

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHRTWV PROGRESSING EWD FM THE NRN PLAINS WL GENERATE CYCLONE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. THE NAM SEEMED WAY OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE AND WAS DISCOUNTED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
FOR SVR STORMS TO FIRE OUT TO THE WEST SUN AFTN/EVENING...THEN
MOVE EAST. THEY SHOULD BE WEAKENING BEFORE THEY ARRIVE IN THE
AREA...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SVR WINDS/HAIL SUN NGT...ESP AS LLJ
GETS DIRECTED INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA LATE SUN NGT. THE
STORMS WL LIKELY STILL BE ACRS THE AREA MON MORNING...THEN THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THEY EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MON AFTN/EVE. THE ECMWF IS A DEFINITE NO-
VOTE. IT/S SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE LEAD CONVECTION AND FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SHORTENS THE WINDOW BETWEEN CONVECTIVE
EVENTS ON BOTH SITES...LEAVING LITTLE TIME FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY.
LITTLE ENDED UP HAPPENING ACRS THE FCST AREA IN A SIMILAR
SCENARIO THIS PAST MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS FM
PREV FCST...BUT WL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN AND FOREGO PLAYING
UP MON AFTN/EVE SVR RISK IN THE HWO.

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS BECOMES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN LATER
PERIODS. THAT SHOWS ITSELF ALREADY TUE. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE
MODELS STILL GENERATED PCPN...THE TREND ON MOST WAS TO HAVE THE
FCST AREA DRY AND BTWN SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH IT/S HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PCPN...GIVEN RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGE CROSSING
THE AREA...THE SUPPORT FOR SIG PCPN IS LOW...TO TRIMMED POPS.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PLENTY OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ROTATING AROUND AN UPR TROF OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR CONTS TO SHOW NUMEROUS
BANDS OF SHWRS MOVING THRU NE WI WITH THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY WORKING
INTO WRN WI. EXPECT THIS PCPN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND COME TO
AN END BY EARLY EVENING OVER ERN WI. WEAK SFC AND UPR RIDGING TO
OCCUR LATER TNGT WHICH MAY ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR A TIME. PROBLEM IS FOG DEVELOPMENT AS MUCH OF THE
REGION HAS HAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WL BE REPLACED BY REDUCED VSBYS INTO THE LIFR
TO IFR RANGE LATE TNGT AS THE FOG OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS FOG
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 302030
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARM AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACRS
NOAM. BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS ACRS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN
CANADA. THOSE WL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SAG SWD DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN AND RECEDE NWD DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STETCHED OUT W-E ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES...
BRINGING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE. IT WILL ALSO BE
HUMID AT TIMES. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ABV NORMAL PCPN
AMNTS...THOUGH TIMING OF THE PCPN BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT AFTER
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SEVERAL CONCERNS TO DEAL WITH...MAINLY DURING THE TNGT PART OF THE
FCST. THESE CONCERNS INCLUDE: WHEN TO END THE PCPN CHCS...HOW MUCH
FOG WL DEVELOP AND MIN TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES JUST SOUTH
OF ESC WITH A CDFNT STRETCHED SWD ALONG THE WRN SHORES OF LAKE MI
AND A SECONDARY TROF EXTENDED W-SW THRU SW WI. FARTHER WEST...A
RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED FROM WRN ONTARIO SWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A PLETHORA OF CLOUDS OVER WI ROTATING
AROUND A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOCAL
RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHWRS
OVER THE ERN THREE-QUARTERS OF WI WITH A STEADY E-NE MOVEMENT.

THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO STILL CROSS WI
THIS EVENING AND MAY HAVE TO LINGER A POP AT LEAST OVER ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY
HIGH. ONCE THESE FEATURES DEPART OVRNGT...WEAK RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
AND MODEST DRYING COULD BRIEFT BREAK THE CLOUD COVER UP...HOWEVER
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER ALL THE RAIN
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND
THE MIDNGT HOUR AND COULD BECOME QUITE THICK TOWARD DAYBREAK
MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL WI WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OCCURRED. NO HEADLINES YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
NORTH...MID TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...LEAVING SOME SUNSHINE FOR
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. DO EXPECT TO SEE
MID/HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO APPROACH CNTRL WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 70S NORTH...AROUND 80
DEGS SOUTH (COOLER NEAR LAKE MI).

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHRTWV PROGRESSING EWD FM THE NRN PLAINS WL GENERATE CYCLONE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. THE NAM SEEMED WAY OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE AND WAS DISCOUNTED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
FOR SVR STORMS TO FIRE OUT TO THE WEST SUN AFTN/EVENING...THEN
MOVE EAST. THEY SHOULD BE WEAKENING BEFORE THEY ARRIVE IN THE
AREA...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SVR WINDS/HAIL SUN NGT...ESP AS LLJ
GETS DIRECTED INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA LATE SUN NGT. THE
STORMS WL LIKELY STILL BE ACRS THE AREA MON MORNING...THEN THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THEY EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MON AFTN/EVE. THE ECMWF IS A DEFINITE NO-
VOTE. IT/S SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE LEAD CONVECTION AND FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SHORTENS THE WINDOW BETWEEN CONVECTIVE
EVENTS ON BOTH SITES...LEAVING LITTLE TIME FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY.
LITTLE ENDED UP HAPPENING ACRS THE FCST AREA IN A SIMILAR
SCENARIO THIS PAST MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS FM
PREV FCST...BUT WL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN AND FOREGO PLAYING
UP MON AFTN/EVE SVR RISK IN THE HWO.

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS BECOMES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN LATER
PERIODS. THAT SHOWS ITSELF ALREADY TUE. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE
MODELS STILL GENERATED PCPN...THE TREND ON MOST WAS TO HAVE THE
FCST AREA DRY AND BTWN SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH IT/S HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PCPN...GIVEN RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGE CROSSING
THE AREA...THE SUPPORT FOR SIG PCPN IS LOW...TO TRIMMED POPS.

NO SIG CHGS NEED TO BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PLENTY OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ROTATING AROUND AN UPR TROF OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR CONTS TO SHOW NUMEROUS
BANDS OF SHWRS MOVING THRU NE WI WITH THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY WORKING
INTO WRN WI. EXPECT THIS PCPN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND COME TO
AN END BY EARLY EVENING OVER ERN WI. WEAK SFC AND UPR RIDGING TO
OCCUR LATER TNGT WHICH MAY ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR A TIME. PROBLEM IS FOG DEVELOPMENT AS MUCH OF THE
REGION HAS HAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WL BE REPLACED BY REDUCED VSBYS INTO THE LIFR
TO IFR RANGE LATE TNGT AS THE FOG OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS FOG
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 301737
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS. A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PICKED UP SOAKING
RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHING EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER. AT 08Z THE CENTER OF A
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LACROSSE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREA RADARS SHOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
WEST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA.

A VORT WAS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH AND WILL ROTATE
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WILL NOT BE TO QUICK TO END THE CONVECTION TODAY
AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE INTO THE INITIAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE
PHASING TROUGH SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST.

MEAN RH SUPPORTS CLOUDS TO LINGER TONIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVER. WITH THE RECENT RAIN...AND LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION. THE
FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IF CLEARING BECOMES WIDESPREAD
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SO FAR REVEAL A
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
BACK NORTH OVER THE STATE. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME MINOR
CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRO A SMALL POP WITH THE FROPA IF THIS TREND IS
CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ZONAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TIMING AMONG MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE LIFT ON MONDAY SO THIS LABOR DAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
WET ONE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY DRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS WISCONSIN.
MODELS VARIED IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ADDING
MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PLENTY OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ROTATING AROUND AN UPR TROF OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR CONTS TO SHOW NUMEROUS
BANDS OF SHWRS MOVING THRU NE WI WITH THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY WORKING
INTO WRN WI. EXPECT THIS PCPN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND COME TO
AN END BY EARLY EVENING OVER ERN WI. WEAK SFC AND UPR RIDGING TO
OCCUR LATER TNGT WHICH MAY ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR A TIME. PROBLEM IS FOG DEVELOPMENT AS MUCH OF THE
REGION HAS HAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WL BE REPLACED BY REDUCED VSBYS INTO THE LIFR
TO IFR RANGE LATE TNGT AS THE FOG OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS FOG
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN PICKED UP
A SOAKING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND STILL ONGOING AS OF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN PORTAGE AND WESTERN WAUPACA
COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES JUST
WORKING OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MOVING
AT A GOOD CLIP. STEADY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE OVER. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW AT ARX AT 08Z TO NEAR OSH TO MTW AND
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK
HYDROLOGY......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 301737
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS. A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PICKED UP SOAKING
RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHING EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER. AT 08Z THE CENTER OF A
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LACROSSE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREA RADARS SHOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
WEST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA.

A VORT WAS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH AND WILL ROTATE
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WILL NOT BE TO QUICK TO END THE CONVECTION TODAY
AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE INTO THE INITIAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE
PHASING TROUGH SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST.

MEAN RH SUPPORTS CLOUDS TO LINGER TONIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVER. WITH THE RECENT RAIN...AND LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION. THE
FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IF CLEARING BECOMES WIDESPREAD
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SO FAR REVEAL A
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
BACK NORTH OVER THE STATE. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME MINOR
CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRO A SMALL POP WITH THE FROPA IF THIS TREND IS
CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ZONAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TIMING AMONG MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE LIFT ON MONDAY SO THIS LABOR DAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
WET ONE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY DRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS WISCONSIN.
MODELS VARIED IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ADDING
MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PLENTY OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ROTATING AROUND AN UPR TROF OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR CONTS TO SHOW NUMEROUS
BANDS OF SHWRS MOVING THRU NE WI WITH THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY WORKING
INTO WRN WI. EXPECT THIS PCPN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND COME TO
AN END BY EARLY EVENING OVER ERN WI. WEAK SFC AND UPR RIDGING TO
OCCUR LATER TNGT WHICH MAY ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR A TIME. PROBLEM IS FOG DEVELOPMENT AS MUCH OF THE
REGION HAS HAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WL BE REPLACED BY REDUCED VSBYS INTO THE LIFR
TO IFR RANGE LATE TNGT AS THE FOG OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS FOG
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN PICKED UP
A SOAKING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND STILL ONGOING AS OF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN PORTAGE AND WESTERN WAUPACA
COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES JUST
WORKING OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MOVING
AT A GOOD CLIP. STEADY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE OVER. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW AT ARX AT 08Z TO NEAR OSH TO MTW AND
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 301130
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS. A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PICKED UP SOAKING
RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHING EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER. AT 08Z THE CENTER OF A
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LACROSSE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREA RADARS SHOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
WEST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA.

A VORT WAS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH AND WILL ROTATE
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WILL NOT BE TO QUICK TO END THE CONVECTION TODAY
AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE INTO THE INITIAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE
PHASING TROUGH SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST.

MEAN RH SUPPORTS CLOUDS TO LINGER TONIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVER. WITH THE RECENT RAIN...AND LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION. THE
FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IF CLEARING BECOMES WIDESPREAD
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SO FAR REVEAL A
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
BACK NORTH OVER THE STATE. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME MINOR
CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRO A SMALL POP WITH THE FROPA IF THIS TREND IS
CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ZONAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TIMING AMONG MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE LIFT ON MONDAY SO THIS LABOR DAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
WET ONE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY DRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS WISCONSIN.
MODELS VARIED IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ADDING
MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH VERY FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE CONVECTION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...WHICH WILL BE
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARX TO ATW TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT MAY LEAD
TO PATCHY TO AREA OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN PICKED UP
A SOAKING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND STILL ONGOING AS OF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN PORTAGE AND WESTERN WAUPACA
COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES JUST
WORKING OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MOVING
AT A GOOD CLIP. STEADY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE OVER. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW AT ARX AT 08Z TO NEAR OSH TO MTW AND
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 301130
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS. A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PICKED UP SOAKING
RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHING EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER. AT 08Z THE CENTER OF A
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LACROSSE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREA RADARS SHOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
WEST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA.

A VORT WAS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH AND WILL ROTATE
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WILL NOT BE TO QUICK TO END THE CONVECTION TODAY
AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE INTO THE INITIAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE
PHASING TROUGH SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST.

MEAN RH SUPPORTS CLOUDS TO LINGER TONIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVER. WITH THE RECENT RAIN...AND LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION. THE
FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IF CLEARING BECOMES WIDESPREAD
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SO FAR REVEAL A
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
BACK NORTH OVER THE STATE. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME MINOR
CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRO A SMALL POP WITH THE FROPA IF THIS TREND IS
CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ZONAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TIMING AMONG MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE LIFT ON MONDAY SO THIS LABOR DAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
WET ONE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY DRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS WISCONSIN.
MODELS VARIED IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ADDING
MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH VERY FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE CONVECTION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...WHICH WILL BE
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARX TO ATW TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT MAY LEAD
TO PATCHY TO AREA OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN PICKED UP
A SOAKING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND STILL ONGOING AS OF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN PORTAGE AND WESTERN WAUPACA
COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES JUST
WORKING OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MOVING
AT A GOOD CLIP. STEADY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE OVER. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW AT ARX AT 08Z TO NEAR OSH TO MTW AND
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH









000
FXUS63 KGRB 300757
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS. A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PICKED UP SOAKING
RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHING EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER. AT 08Z THE CENTER OF A
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LACROSSE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREA RADARS SHOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
WEST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA.

A VORT WAS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH AND WILL ROTATE
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WILL NOT BE TO QUICK TO END THE CONVECTION TODAY
AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE INTO THE INITIAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE
PHASING TROUGH SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST.

MEAN RH SUPPORTS CLOUDS TO LINGER TONIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVER. WITH THE RECENT RAIN...AND LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION. THE
FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IF CLEARING BECOMES WIDESPREAD
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SO FAR REVEAL A
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
BACK NORTH OVER THE STATE. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME MINOR
CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRO A SMALL POP WITH THE FROPA IF THIS TREND IS
CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ZONAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TIMING AMONG MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE LIFT ON MONDAY SO THIS LABOR DAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
WET ONE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY DRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS WISCONSIN.
MODELS VARIED IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ADDING
MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN ISSUE...THOUGH WEAKENING PRESSURE PATTERN WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH AFTER LINE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CIGS VSBYS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN PICKED UP
A SOAKING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND STILL ONGOING AS OF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN PORTAGE AND WESTERN WAUPACA
COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES JUST
WORKING OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MOVING
AT A GOOD CLIP. STEADY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE OVER. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW AT ARX AT 08Z TO NEAR OSH TO MTW AND
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 300757
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS. A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PICKED UP SOAKING
RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHING EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER. AT 08Z THE CENTER OF A
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LACROSSE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREA RADARS SHOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
WEST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA.

A VORT WAS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH AND WILL ROTATE
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WILL NOT BE TO QUICK TO END THE CONVECTION TODAY
AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE INTO THE INITIAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE
PHASING TROUGH SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST.

MEAN RH SUPPORTS CLOUDS TO LINGER TONIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVER. WITH THE RECENT RAIN...AND LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION. THE
FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IF CLEARING BECOMES WIDESPREAD
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SO FAR REVEAL A
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
BACK NORTH OVER THE STATE. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME MINOR
CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRO A SMALL POP WITH THE FROPA IF THIS TREND IS
CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ZONAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TIMING AMONG MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE LIFT ON MONDAY SO THIS LABOR DAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
WET ONE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY DRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS WISCONSIN.
MODELS VARIED IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ADDING
MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN ISSUE...THOUGH WEAKENING PRESSURE PATTERN WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH AFTER LINE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CIGS VSBYS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN PICKED UP
A SOAKING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND STILL ONGOING AS OF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN PORTAGE AND WESTERN WAUPACA
COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES JUST
WORKING OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MOVING
AT A GOOD CLIP. STEADY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE OVER. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW AT ARX AT 08Z TO NEAR OSH TO MTW AND
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......TDH









000
FXUS63 KGRB 300402
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FCST FOCUS CONTS TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MOISURE-LADEN ATMOSPHERE AWAITS A TRIGGER.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES
OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. A WRMFNT EXTENDED EWD THRU CNTRL WI...
WHILE A CDFNT STRETCHED SW FROM CNTRL MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. MUCH
OF NE WI RESIDED IN A QUIET ZONE BETWEEN PCPN TO THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 8H WRMFNT...PCPN TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC LOW/CDFNT AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE. THE LACK OF PCPN HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOARING INTO THE 80S.

SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE UPR
MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER NE
WI WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGS AND PW VALUES AT
1.5"+. AIR MASS TO ALSO BE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH CAPES
BETWEEN 1K AND 2K J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -5...ALTHO INSTABILITY WL
WEAKEN A BIT UPON SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NE
FROM THE MIDWEST AND CREATES A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH ANOTHER
JET MAX OVER CNTRL ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...ANTICIPATE PCPN AMOUNTS
TO AVERAGE IN THE 0.50 TO 1" RANGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE AIR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TOTALS SURPASS 1.5"
BY DAYBREAK. AN ESF HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS. MILD NGT ON TAP WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY IN THE LWR
TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

SHWRS/TSTMS TO BE ONGOING INTO SAT AS THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU THE
REST OF WI ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROF. EVEN THO WE LOSE THE
UPR JET SUPPORT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LIFT (CDFNT)...FORCING
(TROF) AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PCPN TO CONT THRU SAT MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING (IF THERE IS ANY). MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS NORTH TO THE UPR
70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS OVER FAR NE WI SATURDAY EVENING...AS A
S/W TROF MOVES THROUGH...BUT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED SAT
NGT...AS WINDS DECREASE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. PCPN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NW WI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
FOCUSED THERE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS FOR OUR WSTRN
COUNTIES UNTIL EVG. WAA AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

A S/W TROF AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...SO THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) AND
QPF WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SUSPECT THAT ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
ON MONDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LOWERED POPS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BEST S/W ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...AND A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK S/W TROF MAY BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THAT A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE POSITION AND
MOVMT OF THE BOUNDARY VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
THE BOUNDARY...PLUS THE RETURN OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN ISSUE...THOUGH WEAKENING PRESSURE PATTERN WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH AFTER LINE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CIGS VSBYS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HAVE ALREADY ISSUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH THE CONCERN OF
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR TNGT INTO SAT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATM FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO FEED OFF
OF AND WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF PCPN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE BY THE TIME THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT/SAT NGT.
MOST OF NE WI WL END UP WITH BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TSK
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......AK









000
FXUS63 KGRB 300402
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FCST FOCUS CONTS TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MOISURE-LADEN ATMOSPHERE AWAITS A TRIGGER.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES
OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. A WRMFNT EXTENDED EWD THRU CNTRL WI...
WHILE A CDFNT STRETCHED SW FROM CNTRL MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. MUCH
OF NE WI RESIDED IN A QUIET ZONE BETWEEN PCPN TO THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 8H WRMFNT...PCPN TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC LOW/CDFNT AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE. THE LACK OF PCPN HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOARING INTO THE 80S.

SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE UPR
MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER NE
WI WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGS AND PW VALUES AT
1.5"+. AIR MASS TO ALSO BE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH CAPES
BETWEEN 1K AND 2K J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -5...ALTHO INSTABILITY WL
WEAKEN A BIT UPON SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NE
FROM THE MIDWEST AND CREATES A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH ANOTHER
JET MAX OVER CNTRL ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...ANTICIPATE PCPN AMOUNTS
TO AVERAGE IN THE 0.50 TO 1" RANGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE AIR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TOTALS SURPASS 1.5"
BY DAYBREAK. AN ESF HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS. MILD NGT ON TAP WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY IN THE LWR
TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

SHWRS/TSTMS TO BE ONGOING INTO SAT AS THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU THE
REST OF WI ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROF. EVEN THO WE LOSE THE
UPR JET SUPPORT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LIFT (CDFNT)...FORCING
(TROF) AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PCPN TO CONT THRU SAT MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING (IF THERE IS ANY). MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS NORTH TO THE UPR
70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS OVER FAR NE WI SATURDAY EVENING...AS A
S/W TROF MOVES THROUGH...BUT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED SAT
NGT...AS WINDS DECREASE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. PCPN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NW WI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
FOCUSED THERE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS FOR OUR WSTRN
COUNTIES UNTIL EVG. WAA AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

A S/W TROF AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...SO THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) AND
QPF WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SUSPECT THAT ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
ON MONDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LOWERED POPS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BEST S/W ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...AND A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK S/W TROF MAY BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THAT A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE POSITION AND
MOVMT OF THE BOUNDARY VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
THE BOUNDARY...PLUS THE RETURN OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN ISSUE...THOUGH WEAKENING PRESSURE PATTERN WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH AFTER LINE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CIGS VSBYS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HAVE ALREADY ISSUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH THE CONCERN OF
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR TNGT INTO SAT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATM FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO FEED OFF
OF AND WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF PCPN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE BY THE TIME THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT/SAT NGT.
MOST OF NE WI WL END UP WITH BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TSK
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 292328
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FCST FOCUS CONTS TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MOISURE-LADEN ATMOSPHERE AWAITS A TRIGGER.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES
OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. A WRMFNT EXTENDED EWD THRU CNTRL WI...
WHILE A CDFNT STRETCHED SW FROM CNTRL MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. MUCH
OF NE WI RESIDED IN A QUIET ZONE BETWEEN PCPN TO THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 8H WRMFNT...PCPN TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC LOW/CDFNT AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE. THE LACK OF PCPN HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOARING INTO THE 80S.

SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE UPR
MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER NE
WI WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGS AND PW VALUES AT
1.5"+. AIR MASS TO ALSO BE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH CAPES
BETWEEN 1K AND 2K J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -5...ALTHO INSTABILITY WL
WEAKEN A BIT UPON SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NE
FROM THE MIDWEST AND CREATES A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH ANOTHER
JET MAX OVER CNTRL ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...ANTICIPATE PCPN AMOUNTS
TO AVERAGE IN THE 0.50 TO 1" RANGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE AIR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TOTALS SURPASS 1.5"
BY DAYBREAK. AN ESF HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS. MILD NGT ON TAP WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY IN THE LWR
TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

SHWRS/TSTMS TO BE ONGOING INTO SAT AS THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU THE
REST OF WI ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROF. EVEN THO WE LOSE THE
UPR JET SUPPORT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LIFT (CDFNT)...FORCING
(TROF) AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PCPN TO CONT THRU SAT MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING (IF THERE IS ANY). MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS NORTH TO THE UPR
70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS OVER FAR NE WI SATURDAY EVENING...AS A
S/W TROF MOVES THROUGH...BUT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED SAT
NGT...AS WINDS DECREASE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. PCPN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NW WI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
FOCUSED THERE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS FOR OUR WSTRN
COUNTIES UNTIL EVG. WAA AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

A S/W TROF AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...SO THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) AND
QPF WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SUSPECT THAT ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
ON MONDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LOWERED POPS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BEST S/W ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...AND A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK S/W TROF MAY BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THAT A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE POSITION AND
MOVMT OF THE BOUNDARY VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
THE BOUNDARY...PLUS THE RETURN OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN
IS MAIN ISSUE...THOUGH WEAKENING PRESSURE PATTERN WITH SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH AFTER LINE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CIGS VSBYS AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT.&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HAVE ALREADY ISSUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH THE CONCERN OF
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR TNGT INTO SAT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATM FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO FEED OFF
OF AND WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF PCPN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE BY THE TIME THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT/SAT NGT.
MOST OF NE WI WL END UP WITH BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TSK
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......AK









000
FXUS63 KGRB 292328
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FCST FOCUS CONTS TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MOISURE-LADEN ATMOSPHERE AWAITS A TRIGGER.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES
OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. A WRMFNT EXTENDED EWD THRU CNTRL WI...
WHILE A CDFNT STRETCHED SW FROM CNTRL MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. MUCH
OF NE WI RESIDED IN A QUIET ZONE BETWEEN PCPN TO THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 8H WRMFNT...PCPN TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC LOW/CDFNT AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE. THE LACK OF PCPN HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOARING INTO THE 80S.

SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE UPR
MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER NE
WI WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGS AND PW VALUES AT
1.5"+. AIR MASS TO ALSO BE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH CAPES
BETWEEN 1K AND 2K J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -5...ALTHO INSTABILITY WL
WEAKEN A BIT UPON SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NE
FROM THE MIDWEST AND CREATES A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH ANOTHER
JET MAX OVER CNTRL ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...ANTICIPATE PCPN AMOUNTS
TO AVERAGE IN THE 0.50 TO 1" RANGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE AIR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TOTALS SURPASS 1.5"
BY DAYBREAK. AN ESF HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS. MILD NGT ON TAP WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY IN THE LWR
TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

SHWRS/TSTMS TO BE ONGOING INTO SAT AS THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU THE
REST OF WI ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROF. EVEN THO WE LOSE THE
UPR JET SUPPORT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LIFT (CDFNT)...FORCING
(TROF) AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PCPN TO CONT THRU SAT MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING (IF THERE IS ANY). MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS NORTH TO THE UPR
70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS OVER FAR NE WI SATURDAY EVENING...AS A
S/W TROF MOVES THROUGH...BUT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED SAT
NGT...AS WINDS DECREASE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. PCPN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NW WI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
FOCUSED THERE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS FOR OUR WSTRN
COUNTIES UNTIL EVG. WAA AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

A S/W TROF AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...SO THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) AND
QPF WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SUSPECT THAT ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
ON MONDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LOWERED POPS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BEST S/W ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...AND A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK S/W TROF MAY BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THAT A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE POSITION AND
MOVMT OF THE BOUNDARY VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
THE BOUNDARY...PLUS THE RETURN OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN
IS MAIN ISSUE...THOUGH WEAKENING PRESSURE PATTERN WITH SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH AFTER LINE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CIGS VSBYS AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT.&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HAVE ALREADY ISSUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH THE CONCERN OF
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR TNGT INTO SAT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATM FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO FEED OFF
OF AND WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF PCPN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE BY THE TIME THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT/SAT NGT.
MOST OF NE WI WL END UP WITH BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TSK
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 291944
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FCST FOCUS CONTS TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MOISURE-LADEN ATMOSPHERE AWAITS A TRIGGER.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES
OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. A WRMFNT EXTENDED EWD THRU CNTRL WI...
WHILE A CDFNT STRETCHED SW FROM CNTRL MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. MUCH
OF NE WI RESIDED IN A QUIET ZONE BETWEEN PCPN TO THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 8H WRMFNT...PCPN TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC LOW/CDFNT AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE. THE LACK OF PCPN HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOARING INTO THE 80S.

SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE UPR
MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER NE
WI WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGS AND PW VALUES AT
1.5"+. AIR MASS TO ALSO BE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH CAPES
BETWEEN 1K AND 2K J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -5...ALTHO INSTABILITY WL
WEAKEN A BIT UPON SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NE
FROM THE MIDWEST AND CREATES A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH ANOTHER
JET MAX OVER CNTRL ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...ANTICIPATE PCPN AMOUNTS
TO AVERAGE IN THE 0.50 TO 1" RANGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE AIR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TOTALS SURPASS 1.5"
BY DAYBREAK. AN ESF HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS. MILD NGT ON TAP WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY IN THE LWR
TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

SHWRS/TSTMS TO BE ONGOING INTO SAT AS THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU THE
REST OF WI ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROF. EVEN THO WE LOSE THE
UPR JET SUPPORT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LIFT (CDFNT)...FORCING
(TROF) AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PCPN TO CONT THRU SAT MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING (IF THERE IS ANY). MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS NORTH TO THE UPR
70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS OVER FAR NE WI SATURDAY EVENING...AS A
S/W TROF MOVES THROUGH...BUT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED SAT
NGT...AS WINDS DECREASE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. PCPN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NW WI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
FOCUSED THERE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS FOR OUR WSTRN
COUNTIES UNTIL EVG. WAA AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

A S/W TROF AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...SO THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) AND
QPF WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SUSPECT THAT ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
ON MONDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LOWERED POPS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BEST S/W ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...AND A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK S/W TROF MAY BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THAT A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE POSITION AND
MOVMT OF THE BOUNDARY VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
THE BOUNDARY...PLUS THE RETURN OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WRMFNT CUTTING ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF WI THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO CONT MOVING NORTH AND BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS. VSBYS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH OF THIS FNT...BUT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE FNT CLEARS THE
AREA. BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE WRMFNT OVER THE SRN HALF OF WI
SHOULD CONT WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED TSTM EXPECTED AS THE ATM HAS
BECOME UNSTABLE. THE MAIN ACTION SHOULD COME TNGT AS A WEAK SFC
LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE TOWARD WI. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THUS ANTICIPATE A ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO
MOVE THRU NE WI TNGT AND WHEN ITS NOT RAINING...FOG WL BE AN
ISSUE. LOOK FOR BOTH CIGS/VSBYS TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER FOG. PCPN CHCS WOULD
THEN CARRY OVER INTO SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH THE CIGS AND
VSBYS BY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HAVE ALREADY ISSUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH THE CONCERN OF
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR TNGT INTO SAT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATM FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO FEED OFF
OF AND WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF PCPN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE BY THE TIME THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT/SAT NGT.
MOST OF NE WI WL END UP WITH BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TSK
AVIATION.......AK
HYDROLOGY......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 291944
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FCST FOCUS CONTS TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MOISURE-LADEN ATMOSPHERE AWAITS A TRIGGER.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES
OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. A WRMFNT EXTENDED EWD THRU CNTRL WI...
WHILE A CDFNT STRETCHED SW FROM CNTRL MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. MUCH
OF NE WI RESIDED IN A QUIET ZONE BETWEEN PCPN TO THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 8H WRMFNT...PCPN TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC LOW/CDFNT AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE. THE LACK OF PCPN HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOARING INTO THE 80S.

SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE UPR
MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER NE
WI WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGS AND PW VALUES AT
1.5"+. AIR MASS TO ALSO BE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH CAPES
BETWEEN 1K AND 2K J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -5...ALTHO INSTABILITY WL
WEAKEN A BIT UPON SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NE
FROM THE MIDWEST AND CREATES A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH ANOTHER
JET MAX OVER CNTRL ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...ANTICIPATE PCPN AMOUNTS
TO AVERAGE IN THE 0.50 TO 1" RANGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE AIR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TOTALS SURPASS 1.5"
BY DAYBREAK. AN ESF HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS. MILD NGT ON TAP WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY IN THE LWR
TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

SHWRS/TSTMS TO BE ONGOING INTO SAT AS THE CDFNT DRIVES THRU THE
REST OF WI ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROF. EVEN THO WE LOSE THE
UPR JET SUPPORT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LIFT (CDFNT)...FORCING
(TROF) AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PCPN TO CONT THRU SAT MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING (IF THERE IS ANY). MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS NORTH TO THE UPR
70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS OVER FAR NE WI SATURDAY EVENING...AS A
S/W TROF MOVES THROUGH...BUT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED SAT
NGT...AS WINDS DECREASE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. PCPN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NW WI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
FOCUSED THERE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS FOR OUR WSTRN
COUNTIES UNTIL EVG. WAA AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

A S/W TROF AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...SO THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) AND
QPF WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SUSPECT THAT ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
ON MONDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LOWERED POPS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BEST S/W ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...AND A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK S/W TROF MAY BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THAT A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE POSITION AND
MOVMT OF THE BOUNDARY VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
THE BOUNDARY...PLUS THE RETURN OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WRMFNT CUTTING ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF WI THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO CONT MOVING NORTH AND BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS. VSBYS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH OF THIS FNT...BUT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE FNT CLEARS THE
AREA. BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE WRMFNT OVER THE SRN HALF OF WI
SHOULD CONT WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED TSTM EXPECTED AS THE ATM HAS
BECOME UNSTABLE. THE MAIN ACTION SHOULD COME TNGT AS A WEAK SFC
LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE TOWARD WI. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THUS ANTICIPATE A ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO
MOVE THRU NE WI TNGT AND WHEN ITS NOT RAINING...FOG WL BE AN
ISSUE. LOOK FOR BOTH CIGS/VSBYS TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER FOG. PCPN CHCS WOULD
THEN CARRY OVER INTO SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH THE CIGS AND
VSBYS BY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HAVE ALREADY ISSUED THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH THE CONCERN OF
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS/RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR TNGT INTO SAT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATM FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO FEED OFF
OF AND WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF PCPN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE BY THE TIME THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT/SAT NGT.
MOST OF NE WI WL END UP WITH BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TSK
AVIATION.......AK
HYDROLOGY......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 291736
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WHILE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
THE STATE THIS MORNING...HEAVIER CONVECTION CONFINED FROM FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN TO MINNESOTA AND IOWA STARTING OUT DISORGANIZED
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DID NOT NOT INITIALIZE WELL WITH AREAS
OF CONVECTION AT THE ONSET. THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER IOWA
IS IN A SHORT WAVE TROF WITH SOME MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS PER
700 Q VECTOR PROGS. HOWEVER CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALSO DEVELOPED
BUT STAYING WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS OF 08Z. BUT HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE STATE...BUT JUST
DELAYED AND LIKELY CONFINED TO WESTERN WI. AIR MASS WAS ALSO
STABLE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE
TO DELAY THE THUNDER MENTION.

PROGS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE H850 WARM FRONT TODAY BUT DIMINISH
TREND BRIEFLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT CAPE
IS ON THE INCREASE AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY SOUTH OF THE 850 FRONT WARM FRONT. SO THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS STILL
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...BUT PLENTY
OF QUESTIONS AS TO WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED.

CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DECLINING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE STATE...WITH A SUBTLE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT MAY AID WITH THE LIFT BUT PROGS
BEGINNING TO DIVERT FAVORABLE SUPPORT AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST NOW SHIFTS TO THE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD.  THE GEM AND GFS ARE QUICKER WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND A GENERAL BLEND SHOULD WORK THEREAFTER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.  EVEN
THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PASSED
TO THE EAST BY THIS TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE LOW EXITS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.  IF CLEARING WERE TO OCCUR...LIGHT WINDS AND
RECENT RAINFALL WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG.  WILL LEAVE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  THE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  TOO MUCH DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA THOUGH.  WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.  THEN A
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LIFT NE INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
ALSO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...A 40 TO 50 KT
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ANY STORMS WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO TRANSPORT
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.  WILL INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY.  SEVERE POSSIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL UNLESS THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN AND ALLOWS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO DESTABILIZE.  THIS
LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY SINCE PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.  AS THE FRONT EXITS BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE MODELS WERE
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SPOTTY SHOWERS FROM A WEAK WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT CANNOT FIND MUCH SUPPORT FOR THAT FROM THIS
MODEL CYCLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING BEHIND THE FRONT BY
MIDWEEK...WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS INCREASING BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WRMFNT CUTTING ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF WI THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO CONT MOVING NORTH AND BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS. VSBYS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH OF THIS FNT...BUT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE FNT CLEARS THE
AREA. BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE WRMFNT OVER THE SRN HALF OF WI
SHOULD CONT WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED TSTM EXPECTED AS THE ATM HAS
BECOME UNSTABLE. THE MAIN ACTION SHOULD COME TNGT AS A WEAK SFC
LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE TOWARD WI. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THUS ANTICIPATE A ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO
MOVE THRU NE WI TNGT AND WHEN ITS NOT RAINING...FOG WL BE AN
ISSUE. LOOK FOR BOTH CIGS/VSBYS TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER FOG. PCPN CHCS WOULD
THEN CARRY OVER INTO SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH THE CIGS AND
VSBYS BY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

GETTING A SLOW START TO THE HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOST WIDESPREAD INTENSE CONVECTION
REMAINING OUT TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO IOWA.
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA NEAR THE 850 FRONT...PWATS
NEAR 1.80 AND CLIMBING...AND ALSO IN A MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
REGION WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH INTO IOWA. UP TO 1.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN ABOUT AN HOUR OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA IN THIS BAND OF CONVECTION. THESE DYNAMICS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AND MAY WORK OR DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. SINCE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERALL HAS HELD OFF THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA...WILL
PLAN ON CONTINUING WITH AN ESF THIS MORNING FOR RIVER RISES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MUCH OF THE REGION STILL EXPECTING A SOAKING RAIN
WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES BY THE END OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL FALLING OVER A 36 HOUR
PERIOD...AND NOT DURING A 3 HOUR PERIOD. BUT THIS IS AN AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTAL...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IF PASSING OVER THE SAME AREA. ITS POSSIBLE A SHORT FUSED FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED LATER TODAY IF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES MORE OF A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK
HYDROLOGY......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 291736
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WHILE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
THE STATE THIS MORNING...HEAVIER CONVECTION CONFINED FROM FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN TO MINNESOTA AND IOWA STARTING OUT DISORGANIZED
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DID NOT NOT INITIALIZE WELL WITH AREAS
OF CONVECTION AT THE ONSET. THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER IOWA
IS IN A SHORT WAVE TROF WITH SOME MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS PER
700 Q VECTOR PROGS. HOWEVER CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALSO DEVELOPED
BUT STAYING WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS OF 08Z. BUT HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE STATE...BUT JUST
DELAYED AND LIKELY CONFINED TO WESTERN WI. AIR MASS WAS ALSO
STABLE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE
TO DELAY THE THUNDER MENTION.

PROGS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE H850 WARM FRONT TODAY BUT DIMINISH
TREND BRIEFLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT CAPE
IS ON THE INCREASE AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY SOUTH OF THE 850 FRONT WARM FRONT. SO THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS STILL
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...BUT PLENTY
OF QUESTIONS AS TO WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED.

CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DECLINING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE STATE...WITH A SUBTLE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT MAY AID WITH THE LIFT BUT PROGS
BEGINNING TO DIVERT FAVORABLE SUPPORT AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST NOW SHIFTS TO THE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD.  THE GEM AND GFS ARE QUICKER WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND A GENERAL BLEND SHOULD WORK THEREAFTER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.  EVEN
THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PASSED
TO THE EAST BY THIS TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE LOW EXITS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.  IF CLEARING WERE TO OCCUR...LIGHT WINDS AND
RECENT RAINFALL WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG.  WILL LEAVE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  THE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  TOO MUCH DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA THOUGH.  WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.  THEN A
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LIFT NE INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
ALSO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...A 40 TO 50 KT
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ANY STORMS WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO TRANSPORT
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.  WILL INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY.  SEVERE POSSIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL UNLESS THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN AND ALLOWS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO DESTABILIZE.  THIS
LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY SINCE PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.  AS THE FRONT EXITS BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE MODELS WERE
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SPOTTY SHOWERS FROM A WEAK WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT CANNOT FIND MUCH SUPPORT FOR THAT FROM THIS
MODEL CYCLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING BEHIND THE FRONT BY
MIDWEEK...WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS INCREASING BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WRMFNT CUTTING ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF WI THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO CONT MOVING NORTH AND BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS. VSBYS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH OF THIS FNT...BUT EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE FNT CLEARS THE
AREA. BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE WRMFNT OVER THE SRN HALF OF WI
SHOULD CONT WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED TSTM EXPECTED AS THE ATM HAS
BECOME UNSTABLE. THE MAIN ACTION SHOULD COME TNGT AS A WEAK SFC
LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE TOWARD WI. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THUS ANTICIPATE A ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO
MOVE THRU NE WI TNGT AND WHEN ITS NOT RAINING...FOG WL BE AN
ISSUE. LOOK FOR BOTH CIGS/VSBYS TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER FOG. PCPN CHCS WOULD
THEN CARRY OVER INTO SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH THE CIGS AND
VSBYS BY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

GETTING A SLOW START TO THE HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOST WIDESPREAD INTENSE CONVECTION
REMAINING OUT TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO IOWA.
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA NEAR THE 850 FRONT...PWATS
NEAR 1.80 AND CLIMBING...AND ALSO IN A MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
REGION WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH INTO IOWA. UP TO 1.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN ABOUT AN HOUR OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA IN THIS BAND OF CONVECTION. THESE DYNAMICS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AND MAY WORK OR DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. SINCE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERALL HAS HELD OFF THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA...WILL
PLAN ON CONTINUING WITH AN ESF THIS MORNING FOR RIVER RISES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MUCH OF THE REGION STILL EXPECTING A SOAKING RAIN
WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES BY THE END OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL FALLING OVER A 36 HOUR
PERIOD...AND NOT DURING A 3 HOUR PERIOD. BUT THIS IS AN AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTAL...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IF PASSING OVER THE SAME AREA. ITS POSSIBLE A SHORT FUSED FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED LATER TODAY IF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES MORE OF A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK
HYDROLOGY......TDH







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