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000
FXUS63 KGRB 242344
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
644 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA TODAY....BUT ERODING ALONG THE EDGES AS MOISTURE
MIXED OUT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION TO DEVELOP.
DON`T EXPECT AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS TIME AROUND AS BOUNDARY
LAYER BETTER MIXED.

TRAPPED MOISTURE REGIME WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AM. WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND FRONT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND WILL BE GUSTY FOR A
PERIOD MID- DAY WITH EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

TEMPS A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE SUNSHINE
SATURDAY WILL BOOST TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY`S CLOUDY
LOCATIONS DESPITE POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE MOVEMENT OF TWO SHORTWAVE TROFS
ACROSS THE CONUS THAT WL IMPACT NE WI. THE FIRST UPR TROF IS SET
TO ARRIVE ON TUE...PRECEDED BY A WRMFNT/CDFNT COUPLET ON MON. THIS
WL BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE REGION BOTH DAYS. THE SECOND UPR TROF IS
FCST TO ARRIVE ON THU...BUT APPEARS WEAKER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU NEXT TUE AND THEN
SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

A WEAKENING RDG OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SAT NGT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO
BE OVER WI AND WITH THE SFC HI IN OUR VICINITY...THIS SHOULD BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS WL ALSO BRING
A COOL NGT TO NE WI AND HAVE SHAVED TEMPS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER
N-CNTRL WI. LOOK FOR READINGS TO NOW RANGE FROM NEAR 30 DEGS
NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THE SFC RDG SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY BACKING TO A S-SE DIRECTION LATE IN THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO SEE SOME HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WRMFNT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST.
STEADY WAA TO OCCUR AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +10C BY 00Z MON. THE
COOL START TO THE DAY AND SHORTER LENGTH OF DAYLIGHT HOURS WL HELP
TO COUNTER THE WARMING ALOFT. THUS...MAX TEMPS TO SETTLE MAINLY IN
THE 55-60 DEG RANGE.

THIS WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NWD INTO SRN WI SUNDAY NGT WITH WAA
CONTINUING THRU THE NGT. A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WL PULL GULF
MOISTURE NWD AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SATURATE
SUFFICIENTLY ENUG TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHWR POTENTIAL...THE MDLS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (8H LI`S AROUND -2/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES)...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS. CLOUDS/SHWR ACTIVITY WL
HELP HOLD TEMPS UP WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LWR TO MID
40S OVER MOST OF NE WI. PCPN CHCS TO CONT INTO MON AS THE WRMFNT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TOWARD CNTRL WI AND A CDFNT ENTER FAR WRN WI
LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS TO BE AN ALL DAY RAIN AS
THE STRONGER WAA SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW
CHC CATEGORY PER PREVIOUS FCST. MAX TEMPS ON MON COULD BE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WRMFNT CAN GET. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FNT WL PUSH INTO THE 70S...WHILE AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE FNT GET
STUCK IN THE MID 50S.

MON NGT HAS ALL THE EARMARKS OF BEING WET AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS EAST
INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. PLENTY OF LIFT FROM THE CDFNT...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPR TROF...
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS TO NE WI. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY
NGT...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AROUND (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT)...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FCST.
THE SHORTWAVE TROF TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE WITH
A DRY SLOT ROTATING INTO SRN SECTIONS OF WI...WHILE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE ENCOMPASSES NRN WI. CAA TO DOMINATE AS WELL WITH 8H TEMPS
FALLING BELOW 0C BY 00Z WED. THERE MAY BE A SPOTTY RAIN SHWR OVER
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI ON TUE AS THE CAA TAKES OVER AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NRN WI MAY HAVE A BIT HIGHER CHC OF SEEING
MEASURABLE PCPN...CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.

FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND IS FCST
TO ALREADY BE LIFTING NE THRU ERN ONTARIO TUE NGT. HAVE KEPT A
MINIMAL POP OVER N-CNTRL WI AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN W-NW AND
A MINOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL EXISTS. A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES TO
MOVE ACROSS WI ON WED...BUT A LACK OF DRY AIR MAY KEEP SKIES WITH
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. WED WL ALSO BE THE START OF A COOL-DOWN IN
TEMPS AS THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE W-NW.

THE FCST FOR WED NGT/THU STILL LOOKS DEBATABLE AS THE MDLS WAFFLE
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. THE GEM/GFS MAINTAIN
A WEAKER SOLUTION THAT HARDLY GENERATES ANY PCPN. THE ECMWF HAS
CHANGED ITS TUNE AND HAS GONE FROM A STRONG UPR TROF TO A WEAKER
ONE NOT TO DISSIMILAR FROM THE OTHER MDLS. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A SMALL CHC OF SHWRS TO NE WI.
PCPN CHCS COULD LINGER INTO THU NGT BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES
BUILDS SE TOWARD WI ON FRI. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRI...
BUT IT WL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER NC/C WI TO SPREAD EAST EARLY THIS
EVG. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR/LOW MVFR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT AND CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH RHI/AUW/CWA NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...AND THROUGH
ATW/GRB/MTW AROUND 08Z. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
PREVAIL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN WI THIS EVG...
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 241937
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA TODAY....BUT ERODING ALONG THE EDGES AS MOISTURE
MIXED OUT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION TO DEVELOP.
DON`T EXPECT AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS TIME AROUND AS BOUNDARY
LAYER BETTER MIXED.

TRAPPED MOISTURE REGIME WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AM. WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND FRONT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND WILL BE GUSTY FOR A
PERIOD MID- DAY WITH EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

TEMPS A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE SUNSHINE
SATURDAY WILL BOOST TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY`S CLOUDY
LOCATIONS DESPITE POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE MOVEMENT OF TWO SHORTWAVET TROFS
ACROSS THE CONUS THAT WL IMPACT NE WI. THE FIRST UPR TROF IS SET
TO ARRIVE ON TUE...PRECEDED BY A WRMFNT/CDFNT COUPLET ON MON. THIS
WL BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE REGION BOTH DAYS. THE SECOND UPR TROF IS
FCST TO ARRIVE ON THU...BUT APPEARS WEAKER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU NEXT TUE AND THEN
SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

A WEAKENING RDG OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SAT NGT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO
BE OVER WI AND WITH THE SFC HI IN OUR VICINITY...THIS SHOULD BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS WL ALSO BRING
A COOL NGT TO NE WI AND HAVE SHAVED TEMPS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER
N-CNTRL WI. LOOK FOR READINGS TO NOW RANGE FROM NEAR 30 DEGS
NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THE SFC RDG SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY BACKING TO A S-SE DIRECTION LATE IN THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO SEE SOME HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WRMFNT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST.
STEADY WAA TO OCCUR AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +10C BY 00Z MON. THE
COOL START TO THE DAY AND SHORTER LENGTH OF DAYLIGHT HOURS WL HELP
TO COUNTER THE WARMING ALOFT. THUS...MAX TEMPS TO SETTLE MAINLY IN
THE 55-60 DEG RANGE.

THIS WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NWD INTO SRN WI SUNDAY NGT WITH WAA
CONTINUING THRU THE NGT. A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WL PULL GULF
MOISTURE NWD AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SATURATE
SUFFICIENTLY ENUG TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHWR POTENTIAL...THE MDLS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (8H LI`S AROUND -2/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES)...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS. CLOUDS/SHWR ACTIVITY WL
HELP HOLD TEMPS UP WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LWR TO MID
40S OVER MOST OF NE WI. PCPN CHCS TO CONT INTO MON AS THE WRMFNT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TOWARD CNTRL WI AND A CDFNT ENTER FAR WRN WI
LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS TO BE AN ALL DAY RAIN AS
THE STRONGER WAA SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW
CHC CATEGORY PER PREVIOUS FCST. MAX TEMPS ON MON COULD BE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WRMFNT CAN GET. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FNT WL PUSH INTO THE 70S...WHILE AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE FNT GET
STUCK IN THE MID 50S.

MON NGT HAS ALL THE EARMARKS OF BEING WET AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS EAST
INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. PLENTY OF LIFT FROM THE CDFNT...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPR TROF...
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS TO NE WI. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY
NGT...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AROUND (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT)...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FCST.
THE SHORTWAVE TROF TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE WITH
A DRY SLOT ROTATING INTO SRN SECTIONS OF WI...WHILE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE ENCOMPASSES NRN WI. CAA TO DOMINATE AS WELL WITH 8H TEMPS
FALLING BELOW 0C BY 00Z WED. THERE MAY BE A SPOTTY RAIN SHWR OVER
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI ON TUE AS THE CAA TAKES OVER AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NRN WI MAY HAVE A BIT HIGHER CHC OF SEEING
MEASURABLE PCPN...CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.

FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND IS FCST
TO ALREADY BE LIFTING NE THRU ERN ONTARIO TUE NGT. HAVE KEPT A
MINIMAL POP OVER N-CNTRL WI AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN W-NW AND
A MINOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL EXISTS. A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES TO
MOVE ACROSS WI ON WED...BUT A LACK OF DRY AIR MAY KEEP SKIES WITH
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. WED WL ALSO BE THE START OF A COOL-DOWN IN
TEMPS AS THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE W-NW.

THE FCST FOR WED NGT/THU STILL LOOKS DEBATABLE AS THE MDLS WAFFLE
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. THE GEM/GFS MAINTAIN
A WEAKER SOLUTION THAT HARDLY GENERATES ANY PCPN. THE ECMWF HAS
CHANGED ITS TUNE AND HAS GONE FROM A STRONG UPR TROF TO A WEAKER
ONE NOT TO DISSIMILAR FROM THE OTHER MDLS. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A SMALL CHC OF SHWRS TO NE WI.
PCPN CHCS COULD LINGER INTO THU NGT BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES
BUILDS SE TOWARD WI ON FRI. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRI...
BUT IT WL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND FOG SLOWLY ERODING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL BUT FOX VALLEY AND FAR NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG COULD REFORM TONIGHT FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE BETTER MIXED SO THINK THAT THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IS
LOW...BUT THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER BET. DRIER AIR
BEHIND FRONT WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KGRB 241901
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
201 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION PORTION/18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA TODAY....BUT ERODING ALONG THE EDGES AS MOISTURE
MIXED OUT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION TO DEVELOP.

THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AM. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT
WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD MID-DAY WITH
EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

TEMPS A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE SUNSHINE
SATURDAY WILL BOOST TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY`S CLOUDY
LOCATIONS DESPITE POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE STATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
TEMPS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING CLOUDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.

THINGS START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE GENERAL LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER THAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS WOULD HAVE SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN CONTINUING ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AFTER THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS FCST AS IT SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. IN ADDITION... THE 00Z ECMWF
PICKED UP ON THE FASTER MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON MANY
OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. IN ADDITION...KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY IS SWEPT
AWAY WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND FOG SLOWLY ERODING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL BUT FOX VALLEY AND FAR NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG COULD REFORM TONIGHT FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE BETTER MIXED SO THINK THAT THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IS
LOW...BUT THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER BET. DRIER AIR
BEHIND FRONT WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......JKL









000
FXUS63 KGRB 241116
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
616 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.  BEHIND
THE TROUGH...RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOWERING INVERSION WITH PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP...AND
ARE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA.  CURRENT VSBYS ARE LOCALLY
DENSE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MOST OF THE
VSBYS IN THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 SM.  VSBYS FARTHER EAST
ARE BEHAVING BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL TONIGHT.  IN GENERAL THOUGH...VSBYS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY FALLING
SO WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH CRITERIA IS
TECHNICALLY NOT BEING MET.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF
CIRRUS IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A
WEAK TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT IS INACTIVE AT
THE MOMENT.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG TRENDS FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.

TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.  MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.  CIRRUS...BROUGHT IN
BY A BEEFY 120KT JET STREAK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY SLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS/FOG
DESPITE ITS SHALLOW NATURE.  THINKING IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO MIX OUT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CIRRUS WILL BE THICKER THAN FARTHER
EAST.  ONCE IT BURNS OFF THOUGH...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CIRRUS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT.  SATURATION DEPTH IS VERY
SHALLOW...SO THINK THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.  MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK SHALLOW ONCE AGAIN SO USED A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND CONS BLENDS
WHICH DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT CLOUDS
WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS
OVERNIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN GET
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.  BUT UNLIKE THIS
MORNING...WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP BUT COULD LEAD TO THE
GENERATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK.  CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IF THIS
WILL OCCUR AND WILL PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SEND A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THE ENTIRE DAY BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST WHERE THE AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD.  THOUGH IT
WILL BE WINDY...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE STATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
TEMPS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING CLOUDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.

THINGS START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE GENERAL LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER THAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS WOULD HAVE SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN CONTINUING ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AFTER THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS FCST AS IT SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. IN ADDITION... THE 00Z ECMWF
PICKED UP ON THE FASTER MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON MANY
OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. IN ADDITION...KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY IS SWEPT
AWAY WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS
A RESULT OF CIRRUS SLOWING DOWN THE DIURNAL WARMING CURVE.  BUT
ANTICIPATE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND 15Z TO POSSIBLY
VFR BY MIDDAY.  SOME CONCERN THAT BKN MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON THOUGH.  A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN AREA OF
3-5KFT CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THEN ONCE THIS TROUGH DEPARTS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG COULD REFORM LATE TONIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
MORE MIXY SO THINK THAT THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IS LOW...BUT
THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER BET.  WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT ANALYZE FURTHER BEFORE ADDING IFR CIGS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018-030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240821
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.  BEHIND
THE TROUGH...RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOWERING INVERSION WITH PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP...AND
ARE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA.  CURRENT VSBYS ARE LOCALLY
DENSE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MOST OF THE
VSBYS IN THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 SM.  VSBYS FARTHER EAST
ARE BEHAVING BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL TONIGHT.  IN GENERAL THOUGH...VSBYS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY FALLING
SO WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH CRITERIA IS
TECHNICALLY NOT BEING MET.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF
CIRRUS IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A
WEAK TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT IS INACTIVE AT
THE MOMENT.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG TRENDS FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.

TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.  MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.  CIRRUS...BROUGHT IN
BY A BEEFY 120KT JET STREAK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY SLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS/FOG
DESPITE ITS SHALLOW NATURE.  THINKING IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO MIX OUT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CIRRUS WILL BE THICKER THAN FARTHER
EAST.  ONCE IT BURNS OFF THOUGH...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CIRRUS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT.  SATURATION DEPTH IS VERY
SHALLOW...SO THINK THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.  MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK SHALLOW ONCE AGAIN SO USED A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND CONS BLENDS
WHICH DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT CLOUDS
WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS
OVERNIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN GET
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.  BUT UNLIKE THIS
MORNING...WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP BUT COULD LEAD TO THE
GENERATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK.  CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IF THIS
WILL OCCUR AND WILL PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SEND A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THE ENTIRE DAY BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST WHERE THE AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD.  THOUGH IT
WILL BE WINDY...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE STATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
TEMPS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING CLOUDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.

THINGS START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE GENERAL LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER THAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS WOULD HAVE SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN CONTINUING ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AFTER THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS FCST AS IT SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. IN ADDITION... THE 00Z ECMWF
PICKED UP ON THE FASTER MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON MANY
OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. IN ADDITION...KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY IS SWEPT
AWAY WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018-030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240309
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES...STARTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN NOW. 1/4 MILE
VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
PARTICULARLY OVER WOOD AND MARATHON COUNTIES. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA.

IF CLEARING ADVANCES EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM. ANTIGO HAS FALLEN TO 1/4 MILE SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-030-035-
036-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240309
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES...STARTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN NOW. 1/4 MILE
VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
PARTICULARLY OVER WOOD AND MARATHON COUNTIES. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA.

IF CLEARING ADVANCES EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM. ANTIGO HAS FALLEN TO 1/4 MILE SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-030-035-
036-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES...STARTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN NOW. 1/4 MILE
VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
PARTICULARLY OVER WOOD AND MARATHON COUNTIES. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA.

IF CLEARING ADVANCES EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM. ANTIGO HAS FALLEN TO 1/4 MILE SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SCT SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA BY 03Z. HOWEVER
IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4 MILE. AS SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER THAN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-030-035-
036-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES...STARTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN NOW. 1/4 MILE
VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
PARTICULARLY OVER WOOD AND MARATHON COUNTIES. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA.

IF CLEARING ADVANCES EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM. ANTIGO HAS FALLEN TO 1/4 MILE SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SCT SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA BY 03Z. HOWEVER
IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4 MILE. AS SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER THAN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-030-035-
036-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240006
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
706 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SCT SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA BY 03Z. HOWEVER
IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4 MILE. AS SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER THAN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-
030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 231948
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

RAIN MOVING ACROSS STATE AND WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 19Z IN CENTRAL WISC...AND OUT OF EASTERN WISC BY ABOUT
01Z. CONSIDERABLE AREA OF CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT BEHIND THE RAIN
AREA ALONG WITH VSBYS OF 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OR EXPAND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-
030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KGRB 231948
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

RAIN MOVING ACROSS STATE AND WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 19Z IN CENTRAL WISC...AND OUT OF EASTERN WISC BY ABOUT
01Z. CONSIDERABLE AREA OF CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT BEHIND THE RAIN
AREA ALONG WITH VSBYS OF 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OR EXPAND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-
030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KGRB 231726
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA.  CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS.  THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.

TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH.  BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO.  ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z.  TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z.  PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

RAIN MOVING ACROSS STATE AND WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 19Z IN CENTRAL WISC...AND OUT OF EASTERN WISC BY ABOUT
01Z. CONSIDERABLE AREA OF CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT BEHIND THE RAIN
AREA ALONG WITH VSBYS OF 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OR EXPAND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KGRB 231122
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
622 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA.  CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS.  THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.

TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH.  BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO.  ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z.  TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z.  PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BRING A
BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BEFORE EXITING EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
DURING THE EVENING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.  THE FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 230908
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA.  CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS.  THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.

TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH.  BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO.  ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z.  TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z.  PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 230355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 230355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 230005
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
705 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TIL THEN.

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WILL BRING BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 230005
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
705 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TIL THEN.

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WILL BRING BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 221942
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......JKL









000
FXUS63 KGRB 221746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KGRB 221746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KGRB 221111
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION THANKS
TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT ANTICIPATE CIGS
WILL BE FALLING BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LIGHT RAIN MAY
BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC








000
FXUS63 KGRB 220832
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 220256
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
956 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 220256
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
956 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








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