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000
FXUS63 KGRB 211721
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1121 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WAS STILL TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. A FEW FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN NC WI...AND ALSO SUSPECT
THAT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KTS
TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WAA/ISENT LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY FLURRIES/FZDZ WILL START TO MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION AND STRONGER LIFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH ANTICIPATED THERE. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW (AND CATEGORICAL POPS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVG ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SE PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWOODS. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO DECREASE AND MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS ICE CRYSTALS GET
STRIPPED OUT OF THE MID-LEVELS. PCPN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW IOWA AND A S/W TROF
LIFTS NORTH INTO WI. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NC/FAR
NE WI...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SE. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE INTENSIFYING LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO ROUGHLY SAULT STE MARIE.  HOWEVER...THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWS FLATTER UPSTREAM FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY
TAKES THE LOW ON A WEAKER AND MORE EAST HEADING...THEREBY MISSING
THE REGION COMPLETELY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNTIL THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THIS SHIFT...PLAN ON KEEPING CONTINUITY AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.  WILL THEREFORE RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AFTER 12Z WED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER
FORCING...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN...A MIX
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...AND MAINLY RAIN OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW COULD CHANGE
TO A MIX...WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...OR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE.  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PROMPT AN ADVISORY.  TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE...WHICH MEANS PRECIP WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IF TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM
THIS LOW MAY BE FELT ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT RAISED LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE SOO ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING A
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS.  ANY
DEVIATIONS THOUGH COULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER TOTALS...OR NONE AT
ALL...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN ANY CASE.  BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT WEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BLOW/DRIFT ANY NEW SNOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS. THEN
WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.  NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PLENTY OF LIFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE NE WI TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AHEAD OF A LARGE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS. LIGHT
SNOW WL FALL OVER THE RHI...AUW AND CWA TAF SITES THRU THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES LATE
TNGT. A BREAK IN THE PCPN IS ANTICIPATED LATE TNGT INTO MON
MORNING WITH VSBYS REDUCED DUE TO PATCHY FOG. THE NEXT WAVE OF
PCPN SET TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON
AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE WL BE TRICKY AS WARMER AIR LIFTS INTO THE
STATE AND RAIN WL MIX WITH THE SNOW OR EVEN TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE
MON MORNING BEFORE HEADED BACK DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS MON
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211721
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1121 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WAS STILL TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. A FEW FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN NC WI...AND ALSO SUSPECT
THAT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KTS
TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WAA/ISENT LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY FLURRIES/FZDZ WILL START TO MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION AND STRONGER LIFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH ANTICIPATED THERE. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW (AND CATEGORICAL POPS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVG ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SE PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWOODS. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO DECREASE AND MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS ICE CRYSTALS GET
STRIPPED OUT OF THE MID-LEVELS. PCPN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW IOWA AND A S/W TROF
LIFTS NORTH INTO WI. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NC/FAR
NE WI...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SE. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE INTENSIFYING LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO ROUGHLY SAULT STE MARIE.  HOWEVER...THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWS FLATTER UPSTREAM FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY
TAKES THE LOW ON A WEAKER AND MORE EAST HEADING...THEREBY MISSING
THE REGION COMPLETELY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNTIL THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THIS SHIFT...PLAN ON KEEPING CONTINUITY AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.  WILL THEREFORE RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AFTER 12Z WED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER
FORCING...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN...A MIX
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...AND MAINLY RAIN OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW COULD CHANGE
TO A MIX...WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...OR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE.  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PROMPT AN ADVISORY.  TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE...WHICH MEANS PRECIP WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IF TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM
THIS LOW MAY BE FELT ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT RAISED LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE SOO ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING A
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS.  ANY
DEVIATIONS THOUGH COULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER TOTALS...OR NONE AT
ALL...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN ANY CASE.  BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT WEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BLOW/DRIFT ANY NEW SNOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS. THEN
WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.  NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PLENTY OF LIFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE NE WI TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AHEAD OF A LARGE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS. LIGHT
SNOW WL FALL OVER THE RHI...AUW AND CWA TAF SITES THRU THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES LATE
TNGT. A BREAK IN THE PCPN IS ANTICIPATED LATE TNGT INTO MON
MORNING WITH VSBYS REDUCED DUE TO PATCHY FOG. THE NEXT WAVE OF
PCPN SET TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON
AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE WL BE TRICKY AS WARMER AIR LIFTS INTO THE
STATE AND RAIN WL MIX WITH THE SNOW OR EVEN TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE
MON MORNING BEFORE HEADED BACK DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS MON
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211158
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WAS STILL TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. A FEW FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN NC WI...AND ALSO SUSPECT
THAT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KTS
TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WAA/ISENT LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY FLURRIES/FZDZ WILL START TO MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION AND STRONGER LIFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH ANTICIPATED THERE. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW (AND CATEGORICAL POPS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVG ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SE PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWOODS. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO DECREASE AND MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS ICE CRYSTALS GET
STRIPPED OUT OF THE MID-LEVELS. PCPN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW IOWA AND A S/W TROF
LIFTS NORTH INTO WI. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NC/FAR
NE WI...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SE. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE INTENSIFYING LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO ROUGHLY SAULT STE MARIE.  HOWEVER...THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWS FLATTER UPSTREAM FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY
TAKES THE LOW ON A WEAKER AND MORE EAST HEADING...THEREBY MISSING
THE REGION COMPLETELY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNTIL THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THIS SHIFT...PLAN ON KEEPING CONTINUITY AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.  WILL THEREFORE RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AFTER 12Z WED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER
FORCING...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN...A MIX
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...AND MAINLY RAIN OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW COULD CHANGE
TO A MIX...WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...OR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE.  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PROMPT AN ADVISORY.  TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE...WHICH MEANS PRECIP WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IF TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM
THIS LOW MAY BE FELT ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT RAISED LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE SOO ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING A
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS.  ANY
DEVIATIONS THOUGH COULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER TOTALS...OR NONE AT
ALL...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN ANY CASE.  BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT WEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BLOW/DRIFT ANY NEW SNOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS. THEN
WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.  NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL GENERATE SOME FZDZ AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND ASSOCIATED
IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FZDZ TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...JUST ADDED
A MENTION AT THE RHI TAF SITE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211158
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WAS STILL TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. A FEW FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN NC WI...AND ALSO SUSPECT
THAT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KTS
TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WAA/ISENT LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY FLURRIES/FZDZ WILL START TO MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION AND STRONGER LIFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH ANTICIPATED THERE. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW (AND CATEGORICAL POPS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVG ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SE PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWOODS. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO DECREASE AND MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS ICE CRYSTALS GET
STRIPPED OUT OF THE MID-LEVELS. PCPN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW IOWA AND A S/W TROF
LIFTS NORTH INTO WI. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NC/FAR
NE WI...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SE. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE INTENSIFYING LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO ROUGHLY SAULT STE MARIE.  HOWEVER...THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWS FLATTER UPSTREAM FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY
TAKES THE LOW ON A WEAKER AND MORE EAST HEADING...THEREBY MISSING
THE REGION COMPLETELY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNTIL THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THIS SHIFT...PLAN ON KEEPING CONTINUITY AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.  WILL THEREFORE RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AFTER 12Z WED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER
FORCING...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN...A MIX
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...AND MAINLY RAIN OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW COULD CHANGE
TO A MIX...WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...OR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE.  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PROMPT AN ADVISORY.  TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE...WHICH MEANS PRECIP WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IF TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM
THIS LOW MAY BE FELT ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT RAISED LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE SOO ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING A
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS.  ANY
DEVIATIONS THOUGH COULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER TOTALS...OR NONE AT
ALL...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN ANY CASE.  BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT WEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BLOW/DRIFT ANY NEW SNOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS. THEN
WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.  NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL GENERATE SOME FZDZ AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND ASSOCIATED
IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FZDZ TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...JUST ADDED
A MENTION AT THE RHI TAF SITE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211158
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WAS STILL TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. A FEW FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN NC WI...AND ALSO SUSPECT
THAT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KTS
TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WAA/ISENT LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY FLURRIES/FZDZ WILL START TO MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION AND STRONGER LIFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH ANTICIPATED THERE. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW (AND CATEGORICAL POPS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVG ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SE PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWOODS. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO DECREASE AND MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS ICE CRYSTALS GET
STRIPPED OUT OF THE MID-LEVELS. PCPN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW IOWA AND A S/W TROF
LIFTS NORTH INTO WI. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NC/FAR
NE WI...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SE. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE INTENSIFYING LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO ROUGHLY SAULT STE MARIE.  HOWEVER...THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWS FLATTER UPSTREAM FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY
TAKES THE LOW ON A WEAKER AND MORE EAST HEADING...THEREBY MISSING
THE REGION COMPLETELY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNTIL THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THIS SHIFT...PLAN ON KEEPING CONTINUITY AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.  WILL THEREFORE RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AFTER 12Z WED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER
FORCING...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN...A MIX
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...AND MAINLY RAIN OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW COULD CHANGE
TO A MIX...WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...OR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE.  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PROMPT AN ADVISORY.  TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE...WHICH MEANS PRECIP WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IF TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM
THIS LOW MAY BE FELT ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT RAISED LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE SOO ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING A
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS.  ANY
DEVIATIONS THOUGH COULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER TOTALS...OR NONE AT
ALL...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN ANY CASE.  BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT WEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BLOW/DRIFT ANY NEW SNOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS. THEN
WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.  NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL GENERATE SOME FZDZ AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND ASSOCIATED
IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FZDZ TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...JUST ADDED
A MENTION AT THE RHI TAF SITE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211002
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
402 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WAS STILL TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. A FEW FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN NC WI...AND ALSO SUSPECT
THAT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KTS
TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WAA/ISENT LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY FLURRIES/FZDZ WILL START TO MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION AND STRONGER LIFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH ANTICIPATED THERE. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW (AND CATEGORICAL POPS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVG ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SE PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWOODS. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO DECREASE AND MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS ICE CRYSTALS GET
STRIPPED OUT OF THE MID-LEVELS. PCPN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW IOWA AND A S/W TROF
LIFTS NORTH INTO WI. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NC/FAR
NE WI...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SE. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE INTENSIFYING LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO ROUGHLY SAULT STE MARIE.  HOWEVER...THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWS FLATTER UPSTREAM FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY
TAKES THE LOW ON A WEAKER AND MORE EAST HEADING...THEREBY MISSING
THE REGION COMPLETELY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNTIL THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THIS SHIFT...PLAN ON KEEPING CONTINUITY AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.  WILL THEREFORE RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AFTER 12Z WED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER
FORCING...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN...A MIX
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...AND MAINLY RAIN OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW COULD CHANGE
TO A MIX...WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...OR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE.  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PROMPT AN ADVISORY.  TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE...WHICH MEANS PRECIP WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IF TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM
THIS LOW MAY BE FELT ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT RAISED LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE SOO ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING A
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS.  ANY
DEVIATIONS THOUGH COULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER TOTALS...OR NONE AT
ALL...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN ANY CASE.  BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT WEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BLOW/DRIFT ANY NEW SNOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS. THEN
WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.  NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WAA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE IFR AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE
COLUMN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR
RANGE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211002
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
402 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WAS STILL TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. A FEW FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN NC WI...AND ALSO SUSPECT
THAT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KTS
TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WAA/ISENT LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY FLURRIES/FZDZ WILL START TO MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION AND STRONGER LIFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH ANTICIPATED THERE. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW (AND CATEGORICAL POPS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVG ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SE PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWOODS. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO DECREASE AND MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS ICE CRYSTALS GET
STRIPPED OUT OF THE MID-LEVELS. PCPN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW IOWA AND A S/W TROF
LIFTS NORTH INTO WI. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NC/FAR
NE WI...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SE. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE INTENSIFYING LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO ROUGHLY SAULT STE MARIE.  HOWEVER...THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWS FLATTER UPSTREAM FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY
TAKES THE LOW ON A WEAKER AND MORE EAST HEADING...THEREBY MISSING
THE REGION COMPLETELY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNTIL THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THIS SHIFT...PLAN ON KEEPING CONTINUITY AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.  WILL THEREFORE RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AFTER 12Z WED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER
FORCING...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN...A MIX
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...AND MAINLY RAIN OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW COULD CHANGE
TO A MIX...WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...OR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE.  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PROMPT AN ADVISORY.  TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE...WHICH MEANS PRECIP WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IF TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM
THIS LOW MAY BE FELT ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT RAISED LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE SOO ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING A
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS.  ANY
DEVIATIONS THOUGH COULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER TOTALS...OR NONE AT
ALL...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN ANY CASE.  BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT WEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BLOW/DRIFT ANY NEW SNOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS. THEN
WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.  NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WAA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE IFR AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE
COLUMN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR
RANGE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 211002
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
402 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WAS STILL TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN. A FEW FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN NC WI...AND ALSO SUSPECT
THAT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE.

A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KTS
TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WAA/ISENT LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY FLURRIES/FZDZ WILL START TO MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AS DEEPER SATURATION AND STRONGER LIFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH ANTICIPATED THERE. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW (AND CATEGORICAL POPS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVG ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SE PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWOODS. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO DECREASE AND MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS ICE CRYSTALS GET
STRIPPED OUT OF THE MID-LEVELS. PCPN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW IOWA AND A S/W TROF
LIFTS NORTH INTO WI. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NC/FAR
NE WI...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SE. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE INTENSIFYING LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO ROUGHLY SAULT STE MARIE.  HOWEVER...THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWS FLATTER UPSTREAM FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY
TAKES THE LOW ON A WEAKER AND MORE EAST HEADING...THEREBY MISSING
THE REGION COMPLETELY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNTIL THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THIS SHIFT...PLAN ON KEEPING CONTINUITY AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.  WILL THEREFORE RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AFTER 12Z WED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER
FORCING...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN...A MIX
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...AND MAINLY RAIN OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW COULD CHANGE
TO A MIX...WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...OR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE.  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PROMPT AN ADVISORY.  TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE...WHICH MEANS PRECIP WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IF TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR.  LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM
THIS LOW MAY BE FELT ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT RAISED LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE SOO ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING A
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS.  ANY
DEVIATIONS THOUGH COULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER TOTALS...OR NONE AT
ALL...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN ANY CASE.  BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT WEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BLOW/DRIFT ANY NEW SNOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET BESIDES THE GUSTY WINDS. THEN
WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.  NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WAA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE IFR AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE
COLUMN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR
RANGE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210452
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOR HI PRES NEARBY...A LOT OF NUISANCE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR TNGT TO BE WHETHER PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MAIN ISSUE
FOR SUNDAY TO BE WHEN TO TRANSITION THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
EITHER SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO LINGER BEHIND A DEPARTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TNGT. A MILD FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR TO TRAVERSE THE
CONUS LATER TNGT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MILDER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING INTO WI. THIS INCREASE IN WAA...COMBINED WITH NO ICE
WITHIN THE COLUMN...COULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF NE WI AFTER MIDNGT. EVEN IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MAY PRODUCE
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TO GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIVING SE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAA
WL CONT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CHANGE MAINLY TO
LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXING IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS
SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S. OTHERWISE...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FCST TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI WHERE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THE TABLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED THE LAST FEW RUNS BUT MAY HAVE
FOCUSED A BIT BETTER ON A SOLUTION TO WORK WITH FOR AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PROGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTED CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THE MORE WESTERN TRACK AND NOT AS DEEP OF A 500
MB LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.  UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MODEL OUTPUT
APPEARS TO BE A LONGER DURATION WAA AND LIGHT PCPN EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HIGHER WATER EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT BY THEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND MAINLY SNOW NC WI. AN ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAA SURGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL
MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF AN WEAKER ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IF THE MIX CONTAINS A BIT MORE
ZR AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IT
COULD COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON MONDAY TO FOCUS THE BEST
TIME OF ZR EARLY PART OF MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS FOCUS ON A
DRY SLOT TO WORK OVER THE AREA FOR PERIOD OF REDUCED PCPN.
DEPENDING ON TEMPS...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE
UNDER THIS DRY SLOT REGION IF THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN TO PHASE WITH THIS
NORTHERN STREAM LOW TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHER OUTPUT PCPN FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AS PER GFS...BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM AS ANY SHIFT
WEST IN THE TRENDS WITH THE MODELS...AND THIS AREA WILL BE DEALING
WITH A BIT MORE SNOW.

STILL A BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THIS MORNINGS RUN...THE DEEPENING LOW POSITION
IS A LITTLE MORE EAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION.

ALTHOUGH INCONSISTENT...PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT TIMES WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT
BY THE CAA FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WAA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE IFR AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE
COLUMN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR
RANGE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210452
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOR HI PRES NEARBY...A LOT OF NUISANCE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR TNGT TO BE WHETHER PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MAIN ISSUE
FOR SUNDAY TO BE WHEN TO TRANSITION THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
EITHER SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO LINGER BEHIND A DEPARTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TNGT. A MILD FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR TO TRAVERSE THE
CONUS LATER TNGT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MILDER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING INTO WI. THIS INCREASE IN WAA...COMBINED WITH NO ICE
WITHIN THE COLUMN...COULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF NE WI AFTER MIDNGT. EVEN IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MAY PRODUCE
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TO GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIVING SE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAA
WL CONT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CHANGE MAINLY TO
LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXING IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS
SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S. OTHERWISE...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FCST TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI WHERE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THE TABLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED THE LAST FEW RUNS BUT MAY HAVE
FOCUSED A BIT BETTER ON A SOLUTION TO WORK WITH FOR AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PROGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTED CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THE MORE WESTERN TRACK AND NOT AS DEEP OF A 500
MB LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.  UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MODEL OUTPUT
APPEARS TO BE A LONGER DURATION WAA AND LIGHT PCPN EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HIGHER WATER EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT BY THEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND MAINLY SNOW NC WI. AN ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAA SURGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL
MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF AN WEAKER ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IF THE MIX CONTAINS A BIT MORE
ZR AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IT
COULD COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON MONDAY TO FOCUS THE BEST
TIME OF ZR EARLY PART OF MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS FOCUS ON A
DRY SLOT TO WORK OVER THE AREA FOR PERIOD OF REDUCED PCPN.
DEPENDING ON TEMPS...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE
UNDER THIS DRY SLOT REGION IF THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN TO PHASE WITH THIS
NORTHERN STREAM LOW TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHER OUTPUT PCPN FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AS PER GFS...BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM AS ANY SHIFT
WEST IN THE TRENDS WITH THE MODELS...AND THIS AREA WILL BE DEALING
WITH A BIT MORE SNOW.

STILL A BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THIS MORNINGS RUN...THE DEEPENING LOW POSITION
IS A LITTLE MORE EAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION.

ALTHOUGH INCONSISTENT...PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT TIMES WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT
BY THE CAA FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WAA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE IFR AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE
COLUMN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR
RANGE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210452
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOR HI PRES NEARBY...A LOT OF NUISANCE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR TNGT TO BE WHETHER PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MAIN ISSUE
FOR SUNDAY TO BE WHEN TO TRANSITION THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
EITHER SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO LINGER BEHIND A DEPARTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TNGT. A MILD FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR TO TRAVERSE THE
CONUS LATER TNGT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MILDER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING INTO WI. THIS INCREASE IN WAA...COMBINED WITH NO ICE
WITHIN THE COLUMN...COULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF NE WI AFTER MIDNGT. EVEN IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MAY PRODUCE
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TO GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIVING SE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAA
WL CONT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CHANGE MAINLY TO
LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXING IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS
SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S. OTHERWISE...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FCST TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI WHERE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THE TABLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED THE LAST FEW RUNS BUT MAY HAVE
FOCUSED A BIT BETTER ON A SOLUTION TO WORK WITH FOR AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PROGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTED CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THE MORE WESTERN TRACK AND NOT AS DEEP OF A 500
MB LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.  UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MODEL OUTPUT
APPEARS TO BE A LONGER DURATION WAA AND LIGHT PCPN EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HIGHER WATER EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT BY THEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND MAINLY SNOW NC WI. AN ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAA SURGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL
MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF AN WEAKER ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IF THE MIX CONTAINS A BIT MORE
ZR AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IT
COULD COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON MONDAY TO FOCUS THE BEST
TIME OF ZR EARLY PART OF MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS FOCUS ON A
DRY SLOT TO WORK OVER THE AREA FOR PERIOD OF REDUCED PCPN.
DEPENDING ON TEMPS...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE
UNDER THIS DRY SLOT REGION IF THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN TO PHASE WITH THIS
NORTHERN STREAM LOW TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHER OUTPUT PCPN FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AS PER GFS...BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM AS ANY SHIFT
WEST IN THE TRENDS WITH THE MODELS...AND THIS AREA WILL BE DEALING
WITH A BIT MORE SNOW.

STILL A BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THIS MORNINGS RUN...THE DEEPENING LOW POSITION
IS A LITTLE MORE EAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION.

ALTHOUGH INCONSISTENT...PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT TIMES WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT
BY THE CAA FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WAA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE IFR AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE
COLUMN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR
RANGE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210452
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOR HI PRES NEARBY...A LOT OF NUISANCE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR TNGT TO BE WHETHER PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MAIN ISSUE
FOR SUNDAY TO BE WHEN TO TRANSITION THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
EITHER SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO LINGER BEHIND A DEPARTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TNGT. A MILD FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR TO TRAVERSE THE
CONUS LATER TNGT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MILDER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING INTO WI. THIS INCREASE IN WAA...COMBINED WITH NO ICE
WITHIN THE COLUMN...COULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF NE WI AFTER MIDNGT. EVEN IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MAY PRODUCE
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TO GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIVING SE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAA
WL CONT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CHANGE MAINLY TO
LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXING IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS
SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S. OTHERWISE...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FCST TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI WHERE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THE TABLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED THE LAST FEW RUNS BUT MAY HAVE
FOCUSED A BIT BETTER ON A SOLUTION TO WORK WITH FOR AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PROGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTED CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THE MORE WESTERN TRACK AND NOT AS DEEP OF A 500
MB LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.  UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MODEL OUTPUT
APPEARS TO BE A LONGER DURATION WAA AND LIGHT PCPN EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HIGHER WATER EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT BY THEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND MAINLY SNOW NC WI. AN ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAA SURGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL
MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF AN WEAKER ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IF THE MIX CONTAINS A BIT MORE
ZR AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IT
COULD COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON MONDAY TO FOCUS THE BEST
TIME OF ZR EARLY PART OF MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS FOCUS ON A
DRY SLOT TO WORK OVER THE AREA FOR PERIOD OF REDUCED PCPN.
DEPENDING ON TEMPS...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE
UNDER THIS DRY SLOT REGION IF THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN TO PHASE WITH THIS
NORTHERN STREAM LOW TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHER OUTPUT PCPN FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AS PER GFS...BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM AS ANY SHIFT
WEST IN THE TRENDS WITH THE MODELS...AND THIS AREA WILL BE DEALING
WITH A BIT MORE SNOW.

STILL A BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THIS MORNINGS RUN...THE DEEPENING LOW POSITION
IS A LITTLE MORE EAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION.

ALTHOUGH INCONSISTENT...PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT TIMES WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT
BY THE CAA FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WAA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE IFR AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE
COLUMN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR
RANGE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210016
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
616 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOR HI PRES NEARBY...A LOT OF NUISANCE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR TNGT TO BE WHETHER PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MAIN ISSUE
FOR SUNDAY TO BE WHEN TO TRANSITION THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
EITHER SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO LINGER BEHIND A DEPARTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TNGT. A MILD FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR TO TRAVERSE THE
CONUS LATER TNGT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MILDER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING INTO WI. THIS INCREASE IN WAA...COMBINED WITH NO ICE
WITHIN THE COLUMN...COULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF NE WI AFTER MIDNGT. EVEN IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MAY PRODUCE
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TO GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIVING SE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAA
WL CONT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CHANGE MAINLY TO
LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXING IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS
SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S. OTHERWISE...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FCST TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI WHERE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THE TABLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED THE LAST FEW RUNS BUT MAY HAVE
FOCUSED A BIT BETTER ON A SOLUTION TO WORK WITH FOR AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PROGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTED CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THE MORE WESTERN TRACK AND NOT AS DEEP OF A 500
MB LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.  UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MODEL OUTPUT
APPEARS TO BE A LONGER DURATION WAA AND LIGHT PCPN EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HIGHER WATER EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT BY THEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND MAINLY SNOW NC WI. AN ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAA SURGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL
MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF AN WEAKER ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IF THE MIX CONTAINS A BIT MORE
ZR AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IT
COULD COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON MONDAY TO FOCUS THE BEST
TIME OF ZR EARLY PART OF MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS FOCUS ON A
DRY SLOT TO WORK OVER THE AREA FOR PERIOD OF REDUCED PCPN.
DEPENDING ON TEMPS...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE
UNDER THIS DRY SLOT REGION IF THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN TO PHASE WITH THIS
NORTHERN STREAM LOW TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHER OUTPUT PCPN FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AS PER GFS...BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM AS ANY SHIFT
WEST IN THE TRENDS WITH THE MODELS...AND THIS AREA WILL BE DEALING
WITH A BIT MORE SNOW.

STILL A BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THIS MORNINGS RUN...THE DEEPENING LOW POSITION
IS A LITTLE MORE EAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION.

ALTHOUGH INCONSISTENT...PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT TIMES WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT
BY THE CAA FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ONSET OF WAA TONIGHT WILL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE
IFR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATE AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE COLUMN...THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210016
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
616 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOR HI PRES NEARBY...A LOT OF NUISANCE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR TNGT TO BE WHETHER PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MAIN ISSUE
FOR SUNDAY TO BE WHEN TO TRANSITION THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
EITHER SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO LINGER BEHIND A DEPARTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TNGT. A MILD FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR TO TRAVERSE THE
CONUS LATER TNGT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MILDER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING INTO WI. THIS INCREASE IN WAA...COMBINED WITH NO ICE
WITHIN THE COLUMN...COULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF NE WI AFTER MIDNGT. EVEN IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MAY PRODUCE
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TO GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIVING SE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAA
WL CONT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CHANGE MAINLY TO
LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXING IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS
SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S. OTHERWISE...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FCST TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI WHERE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THE TABLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED THE LAST FEW RUNS BUT MAY HAVE
FOCUSED A BIT BETTER ON A SOLUTION TO WORK WITH FOR AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PROGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTED CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THE MORE WESTERN TRACK AND NOT AS DEEP OF A 500
MB LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.  UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MODEL OUTPUT
APPEARS TO BE A LONGER DURATION WAA AND LIGHT PCPN EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HIGHER WATER EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT BY THEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND MAINLY SNOW NC WI. AN ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAA SURGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL
MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF AN WEAKER ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IF THE MIX CONTAINS A BIT MORE
ZR AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IT
COULD COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON MONDAY TO FOCUS THE BEST
TIME OF ZR EARLY PART OF MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS FOCUS ON A
DRY SLOT TO WORK OVER THE AREA FOR PERIOD OF REDUCED PCPN.
DEPENDING ON TEMPS...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE
UNDER THIS DRY SLOT REGION IF THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN TO PHASE WITH THIS
NORTHERN STREAM LOW TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHER OUTPUT PCPN FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AS PER GFS...BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM AS ANY SHIFT
WEST IN THE TRENDS WITH THE MODELS...AND THIS AREA WILL BE DEALING
WITH A BIT MORE SNOW.

STILL A BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THIS MORNINGS RUN...THE DEEPENING LOW POSITION
IS A LITTLE MORE EAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION.

ALTHOUGH INCONSISTENT...PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT TIMES WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT
BY THE CAA FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ONSET OF WAA TONIGHT WILL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE
IFR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATE AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE COLUMN...THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ESB








000
FXUS63 KGRB 202035
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
235 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOR HI PRES NEARBY...A LOT OF NUISANCE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR TNGT TO BE WHETHER PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MAIN ISSUE
FOR SUNDAY TO BE WHEN TO TRANSITION THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
EITHER SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO LINGER BEHIND A DEPARTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TNGT. A MILD FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR TO TRAVERSE THE
CONUS LATER TNGT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MILDER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING INTO WI. THIS INCREASE IN WAA...COMBINED WITH NO ICE
WITHIN THE COLUMN...COULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF NE WI AFTER MIDNGT. EVEN IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...PATCHY FOG AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MAY PRODUCE
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TO GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIVING SE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE WAA
WL CONT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CHANGE MAINLY TO
LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXING IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS
SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S. OTHERWISE...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FCST TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI WHERE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THE TABLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED THE LAST FEW RUNS BUT MAY HAVE
FOCUSED A BIT BETTER ON A SOLUTION TO WORK WITH FOR AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PROGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTED CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THE MORE WESTERN TRACK AND NOT AS DEEP OF A 500
MB LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.  UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MODEL OUTPUT
APPEARS TO BE A LONGER DURATION WAA AND LIGHT PCPN EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HIGHER WATER EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT BY THEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND MAINLY SNOW NC WI. AN ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAA SURGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL
MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF AN WEAKER ADVISORY EVENT
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IF THE MIX CONTAINS A BIT MORE
ZR AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IT
COULD COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON MONDAY TO FOCUS THE BEST
TIME OF ZR EARLY PART OF MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS FOCUS ON A
DRY SLOT TO WORK OVER THE AREA FOR PERIOD OF REDUCED PCPN.
DEPENDING ON TEMPS...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE
UNDER THIS DRY SLOT REGION IF THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN TO PHASE WITH THIS
NORTHERN STREAM LOW TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHER OUTPUT PCPN FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AS PER GFS...BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM AS ANY SHIFT
WEST IN THE TRENDS WITH THE MODELS...AND THIS AREA WILL BE DEALING
WITH A BIT MORE SNOW.

STILL A BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THIS MORNINGS RUN...THE DEEPENING LOW POSITION
IS A LITTLE MORE EAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION.

ALTHOUGH INCONSISTENT...PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT TIMES WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT
BY THE CAA FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM IFR OVER CNTRL WI
TO VFR OVER ERN WI. EXPECT CIGS TO SETTLE MAINLY INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. ONSET OF WAA TNGT WL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF
CIGS INTO THE IFR/LOW-END MVFR RANGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNGT. THIS WAA PATTERN WL CONT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE
INTRODUCED INTO THE COLUMN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 201736
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1136 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CALLS TO A COUPLE SHERIFF DEPTS IN THE WSTRN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA INDICATED THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING...SO WILL BE
ADDING FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES TO THE FCST FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WI FOR THIS MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY EDGING EAST...WITH DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE
EDGING INTO NC/C WI...BUT LITTLE PCPN WAS NOTED ON WISCONSIN SFC
OBSERVATIONS.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT SINCE UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO SPLIT AROUND THE REGION AND WAA WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR WEST...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FCST IN PLACE. A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.

CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...AND MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S. WAA WILL INCREASE ACROSS NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT...
AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SW COUNTIES.

WAA WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 30 TO 35 KTS. A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NE DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OCCURING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER SATURATION ARRIVES. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN TRENDING
WEST OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS IN REGARDS TO THE STRONG CYCLONE WHICH
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO FOLLOWED THIS TREND...TRACKING A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN.  THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE STILL EAST OF THIS
TRACK...TAKING THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON.  THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD
HAVE AN ENORMOUS IMPACT ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THIS WESTWARD TREND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SATURATION ISSUES IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT THIS WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION.  PERHAPS COULD SEE UP TO
AN INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER AN
INCH.  THE WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.  THE GFS IS
QUICKER BRINGING IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE STATE...WHICH IS AT
ODDS WITH MOST GUIDANCE.  PERHAPS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
ON MONDAY IF MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATER OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE EAST IF PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY EVENT.  MUCH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION.  WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE...MAKING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO THERE.
BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL RAIN
ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  WARM AIR WILL REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT STILL THINKING
MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING.
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO LOOK POSSIBLE.  LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF DEEP CYCLONE
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WESTWARD
TREND IN THE MODELS WOULD GIVE A GREATER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP
IMPACTING EASTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION TO ANY SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY AND CREATE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES.  TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE ARE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
WOULD BE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANY SNOW WILL BE PULLING OUT ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  ANOTHER CYCLONE COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM IFR OVER CNTRL WI
TO VFR OVER ERN WI. EXPECT CIGS TO SETTLE MAINLY INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. ONSET OF WAA TNGT WL BRING BOTH A LOWERING OF
CIGS INTO THE IFR/LOW-END MVFR RANGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNGT. THIS WAA PATTERN WL CONT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. AS THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE
INTRODUCED INTO THE COLUMN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KALLAS







000
FXUS63 KGRB 201145 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
545 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CALLS TO A COUPLE SHERIFF DEPTS IN THE WSTRN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA INDICATED THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING...SO WILL BE
ADDING FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES TO THE FCST FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WI FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY EDGING EAST...WITH DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE
EDGING INTO NC/C WI...BUT LITTLE PCPN WAS NOTED ON WISCONSIN SFC
OBSERVATIONS.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT SINCE UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO SPLIT AROUND THE REGION AND WAA WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR WEST...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FCST IN PLACE. A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.

CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...AND MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S. WAA WILL INCREASE ACROSS NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT...
AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SW COUNTIES.

WAA WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 30 TO 35 KTS. A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NE DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OCCURING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER SATURATION ARRIVES. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN TRENDING
WEST OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS IN REGARDS TO THE STRONG CYCLONE WHICH
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO FOLLOWED THIS TREND...TRACKING A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN.  THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE STILL EAST OF THIS
TRACK...TAKING THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON.  THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD
HAVE AN ENORMOUS IMPACT ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THIS WESTWARD TREND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SATURATION ISSUES IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT THIS WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION.  PERHAPS COULD SEE UP TO
AN INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER AN
INCH.  THE WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.  THE GFS IS
QUICKER BRINGING IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE STATE...WHICH IS AT
ODDS WITH MOST GUIDANCE.  PERHAPS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
ON MONDAY IF MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATER OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE EAST IF PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY EVENT.  MUCH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION.  WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE...MAKING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO THERE.
BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL RAIN
ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  WARM AIR WILL REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT STILL THINKING
MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING.
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO LOOK POSSIBLE.  LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF DEEP CYCLONE
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WESTWARD
TREND IN THE MODELS WOULD GIVE A GREATER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP
IMPACTING EASTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION TO ANY SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY AND CREATE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES.  TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE ARE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
WOULD BE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANY SNOW WILL BE PULLING OUT ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  ANOTHER CYCLONE COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CLOUDS HAD THICKENED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE WAS A LARGE VARIATION IN CIG HEIGHTS...WHICH RANGED FROM
LIFR/IFR IN PARTS OF NC/C WI...TO LOWER END VFR CATEGORY IN
EASTERN WI. CALLS TO A COUPLE SHERIFF DEPTS INDICATED SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NC/C WI...SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES TO THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAFS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. HAVE FORECAST A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS LOWERING AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE COULD
BE SOME MORE FZDZ IN NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 201145 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
545 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CALLS TO A COUPLE SHERIFF DEPTS IN THE WSTRN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA INDICATED THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING...SO WILL BE
ADDING FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES TO THE FCST FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WI FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY EDGING EAST...WITH DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE
EDGING INTO NC/C WI...BUT LITTLE PCPN WAS NOTED ON WISCONSIN SFC
OBSERVATIONS.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT SINCE UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO SPLIT AROUND THE REGION AND WAA WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR WEST...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FCST IN PLACE. A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.

CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...AND MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S. WAA WILL INCREASE ACROSS NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT...
AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SW COUNTIES.

WAA WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 30 TO 35 KTS. A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NE DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OCCURING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER SATURATION ARRIVES. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN TRENDING
WEST OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS IN REGARDS TO THE STRONG CYCLONE WHICH
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO FOLLOWED THIS TREND...TRACKING A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN.  THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE STILL EAST OF THIS
TRACK...TAKING THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON.  THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD
HAVE AN ENORMOUS IMPACT ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THIS WESTWARD TREND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SATURATION ISSUES IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT THIS WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION.  PERHAPS COULD SEE UP TO
AN INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER AN
INCH.  THE WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.  THE GFS IS
QUICKER BRINGING IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE STATE...WHICH IS AT
ODDS WITH MOST GUIDANCE.  PERHAPS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
ON MONDAY IF MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATER OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE EAST IF PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY EVENT.  MUCH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION.  WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE...MAKING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO THERE.
BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL RAIN
ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  WARM AIR WILL REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT STILL THINKING
MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING.
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO LOOK POSSIBLE.  LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF DEEP CYCLONE
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WESTWARD
TREND IN THE MODELS WOULD GIVE A GREATER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP
IMPACTING EASTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION TO ANY SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY AND CREATE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES.  TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE ARE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
WOULD BE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANY SNOW WILL BE PULLING OUT ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  ANOTHER CYCLONE COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CLOUDS HAD THICKENED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE WAS A LARGE VARIATION IN CIG HEIGHTS...WHICH RANGED FROM
LIFR/IFR IN PARTS OF NC/C WI...TO LOWER END VFR CATEGORY IN
EASTERN WI. CALLS TO A COUPLE SHERIFF DEPTS INDICATED SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NC/C WI...SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES TO THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAFS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. HAVE FORECAST A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS LOWERING AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE COULD
BE SOME MORE FZDZ IN NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 200951
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
351 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PCPN TRENDS/TYPE AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY EDGING EAST...WITH DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE
EDGING INTO NC/C WI...BUT LITTLE PCPN WAS NOTED ON WISCONSIN SFC
OBSERVATIONS.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT SINCE UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO SPLIT AROUND THE REGION AND WAA WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR WEST...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FCST IN PLACE. A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.

CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...AND MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S. WAA WILL INCREASE ACROSS NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT...
AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SW COUNTIES.

WAA WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 30 TO 35 KTS. A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NE DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OCCURING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER SATURATION ARRIVES. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN TRENDING
WEST OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS IN REGARDS TO THE STRONG CYCLONE WHICH
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO FOLLOWED THIS TREND...TRACKING A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN.  THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE STILL EAST OF THIS
TRACK...TAKING THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON.  THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD
HAVE AN ENORMOUS IMPACT ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THIS WESTWARD TREND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SATURATION ISSUES IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT THIS WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION.  PERHAPS COULD SEE UP TO
AN INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER AN
INCH.  THE WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.  THE GFS IS
QUICKER BRINGING IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE STATE...WHICH IS AT
ODDS WITH MOST GUIDANCE.  PERHAPS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
ON MONDAY IF MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATER OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE EAST IF PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY EVENT.  MUCH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION.  WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE...MAKING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO THERE.
BUT TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL RAIN
ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  WARM AIR WILL REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT STILL THINKING
MAINLY SNOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING.
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO LOOK POSSIBLE.  LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF DEEP CYCLONE
LATE IN THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WESTWARD
TREND IN THE MODELS WOULD GIVE A GREATER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP
IMPACTING EASTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION TO ANY SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY AND CREATE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES.  TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE ARE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
WOULD BE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANY SNOW WILL BE PULLING OUT ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  ANOTHER CYCLONE COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A LARGE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY DEVELOPING/MOVING ENE INTO NE WISC.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KGRB 200436
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
UPDATED SHORT TERM

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EDGES EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE.

LOWERED MINS A BIT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES HUNG
ON THE LONGEST THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LIGHT MIX POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK WAA AND RETURN SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST INCREASES STARTING MONDAY WHEN THE
UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LOCATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO IMPACT
TEMPS AND PCPN TYPE...WITH THE MORE WESTERN TREND SUPPORTING A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH TUESDAY.  500 MB MODEL CENTER LOW
POSITION FOR THIS DEEPENING LOW LATE TUESDAY RANGE FROM IOWA FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CENTRAL MN FOR THE GEM. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF PRODUCE 0.25 TO 0.35 QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GEM DRY
SLOTS THE AREA. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS IN A HIGHER AMOUNT OF MAINLY
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY RANGING MAINLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 OVER FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MORE OF A
DRY SLOT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH
PCPN TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS RATE OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

EVENTUALLY THE PROGS SHIFT THIS DEEP UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT BY THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM PCPN SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS
WELL. TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING H850 LOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE FURTHER SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY
WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST. DEPENDING ON
SNOWFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GOING SNOW THURSDAY...VARIOUS
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INCLUDING WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE
SNOW NOT AN ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARS
TO BE MOST IMPACTED FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO MORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL BEFORE ADDING
BETTER DETAIL OF THE IMPACTS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS IF CORRECT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE RIVER AND LAKE ICE
CONDITIONS.

DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH DAYS 3-5...LOW CONFIDENCE
ISSUES EXPECTED FOR DAY 6-7...DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH A
TRAILING SYSTEM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE
WELL SOUTH...BUT MORNING RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A WINTER
EVENT NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A LARGE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY DEVELOPING/MOVING ENE INTO NE WISC.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JKL









000
FXUS63 KGRB 200436
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
UPDATED SHORT TERM

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EDGES EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE.

LOWERED MINS A BIT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES HUNG
ON THE LONGEST THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LIGHT MIX POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK WAA AND RETURN SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST INCREASES STARTING MONDAY WHEN THE
UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LOCATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO IMPACT
TEMPS AND PCPN TYPE...WITH THE MORE WESTERN TREND SUPPORTING A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH TUESDAY.  500 MB MODEL CENTER LOW
POSITION FOR THIS DEEPENING LOW LATE TUESDAY RANGE FROM IOWA FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CENTRAL MN FOR THE GEM. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF PRODUCE 0.25 TO 0.35 QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GEM DRY
SLOTS THE AREA. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS IN A HIGHER AMOUNT OF MAINLY
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY RANGING MAINLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 OVER FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MORE OF A
DRY SLOT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH
PCPN TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS RATE OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

EVENTUALLY THE PROGS SHIFT THIS DEEP UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT BY THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM PCPN SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS
WELL. TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING H850 LOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE FURTHER SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY
WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST. DEPENDING ON
SNOWFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GOING SNOW THURSDAY...VARIOUS
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INCLUDING WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE
SNOW NOT AN ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARS
TO BE MOST IMPACTED FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO MORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL BEFORE ADDING
BETTER DETAIL OF THE IMPACTS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS IF CORRECT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE RIVER AND LAKE ICE
CONDITIONS.

DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH DAYS 3-5...LOW CONFIDENCE
ISSUES EXPECTED FOR DAY 6-7...DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH A
TRAILING SYSTEM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE
WELL SOUTH...BUT MORNING RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A WINTER
EVENT NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A LARGE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY DEVELOPING/MOVING ENE INTO NE WISC.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KGRB 200022
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
622 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EDGES EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT A BIT LOWER THAN
MOS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SKIES STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LIGHT MIX POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK WAA AND RETURN SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST INCREASES STARTING MONDAY WHEN THE
UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LOCATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO IMPACT
TEMPS AND PCPN TYPE...WITH THE MORE WESTERN TREND SUPPORTING A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH TUESDAY.  500 MB MODEL CENTER LOW
POSITION FOR THIS DEEPENING LOW LATE TUESDAY RANGE FROM IOWA FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CENTRAL MN FOR THE GEM. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF PRODUCE 0.25 TO 0.35 QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GEM DRY
SLOTS THE AREA. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS IN A HIGHER AMOUNT OF MAINLY
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY RANGING MAINLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 OVER FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MORE OF A
DRY SLOT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH
PCPN TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS RATE OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

EVENTUALLY THE PROGS SHIFT THIS DEEP UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT BY THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM PCPN SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS
WELL. TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING H850 LOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE FURTHER SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY
WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST. DEPENDING ON
SNOWFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GOING SNOW THURSDAY...VARIOUS
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INCLUDING WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE
SNOW NOT AN ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARS
TO BE MOST IMPACTED FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO MORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL BEFORE ADDING
BETTER DETAIL OF THE IMPACTS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS IF CORRECT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE RIVER AND LAKE ICE
CONDITIONS.

DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH DAYS 3-5...LOW CONFIDENCE
ISSUES EXPECTED FOR DAY 6-7...DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH A
TRAILING SYSTEM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE
WELL SOUTH...BUT MORNING RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A WINTER
EVENT NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A LARGE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
EVERYTHING FROM VFR CLEAR TO IFR. LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WAS
E-NE OF WAUSAU AT 0015Z. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN ACROS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KGRB 200022
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
622 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EDGES EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT A BIT LOWER THAN
MOS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SKIES STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LIGHT MIX POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK WAA AND RETURN SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST INCREASES STARTING MONDAY WHEN THE
UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LOCATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO IMPACT
TEMPS AND PCPN TYPE...WITH THE MORE WESTERN TREND SUPPORTING A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH TUESDAY.  500 MB MODEL CENTER LOW
POSITION FOR THIS DEEPENING LOW LATE TUESDAY RANGE FROM IOWA FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CENTRAL MN FOR THE GEM. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF PRODUCE 0.25 TO 0.35 QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GEM DRY
SLOTS THE AREA. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS IN A HIGHER AMOUNT OF MAINLY
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY RANGING MAINLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 OVER FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MORE OF A
DRY SLOT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH
PCPN TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS RATE OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

EVENTUALLY THE PROGS SHIFT THIS DEEP UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT BY THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM PCPN SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS
WELL. TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING H850 LOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE FURTHER SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY
WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST. DEPENDING ON
SNOWFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GOING SNOW THURSDAY...VARIOUS
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INCLUDING WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE
SNOW NOT AN ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARS
TO BE MOST IMPACTED FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO MORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL BEFORE ADDING
BETTER DETAIL OF THE IMPACTS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS IF CORRECT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE RIVER AND LAKE ICE
CONDITIONS.

DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH DAYS 3-5...LOW CONFIDENCE
ISSUES EXPECTED FOR DAY 6-7...DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH A
TRAILING SYSTEM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE
WELL SOUTH...BUT MORNING RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A WINTER
EVENT NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A LARGE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
EVERYTHING FROM VFR CLEAR TO IFR. LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WAS
E-NE OF WAUSAU AT 0015Z. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN ACROS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KGRB 192051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
251 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EDGES EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT A BIT LOWER THAN
MOS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SKIES STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LIGHT MIX POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK WAA AND RETURN SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST INCREASES STARTING MONDAY WHEN THE
UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LOCATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO IMPACT
TEMPS AND PCPN TYPE...WITH THE MORE WESTERN TREND SUPPORTING A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH TUESDAY.  500 MB MODEL CENTER LOW
POSITION FOR THIS DEEPENING LOW LATE TUESDAY RANGE FROM IOWA FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CENTRAL MN FOR THE GEM. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF PRODUCE 0.25 TO 0.35 QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GEM DRY
SLOTS THE AREA. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS IN A HIGHER AMOUNT OF MAINLY
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY RANGING MAINLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 OVER FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MORE OF A
DRY SLOT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH
PCPN TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS RATE OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

EVENTUALLY THE PROGS SHIFT THIS DEEP UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT BY THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM PCPN SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS
WELL. TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING H850 LOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE FURTHER SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY
WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST. DEPENDING ON
SNOWFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GOING SNOW THURSDAY...VARIOUS
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INCLUDING WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE
SNOW NOT AN ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARS
TO BE MOST IMPACTED FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO MORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL BEFORE ADDING
BETTER DETAIL OF THE IMPACTS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS IF CORRECT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE RIVER AND LAKE ICE
CONDITIONS.

DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH DAYS 3-5...LOW CONFIDENCE
ISSUES EXPECTED FOR DAY 6-7...DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH A
TRAILING SYSTEM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE
WELL SOUTH...BUT MORNING RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A WINTER
EVENT NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A LARGE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING FROM VFR CLEAR TO IFR. LEAST AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS WAS EAST OF WAUSAU AT 18Z. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND LOWER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF CLINTONVILLE BY LATE EVENING
WITH IFR TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ACROS THE AREA
SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 192051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
251 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EDGES EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT A BIT LOWER THAN
MOS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SKIES STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LIGHT MIX POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK WAA AND RETURN SOUTH
FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST INCREASES STARTING MONDAY WHEN THE
UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LOCATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO IMPACT
TEMPS AND PCPN TYPE...WITH THE MORE WESTERN TREND SUPPORTING A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH TUESDAY.  500 MB MODEL CENTER LOW
POSITION FOR THIS DEEPENING LOW LATE TUESDAY RANGE FROM IOWA FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CENTRAL MN FOR THE GEM. WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF PRODUCE 0.25 TO 0.35 QPF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GEM DRY
SLOTS THE AREA. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS IN A HIGHER AMOUNT OF MAINLY
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY RANGING MAINLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 OVER FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MORE OF A
DRY SLOT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH
PCPN TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS RATE OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

EVENTUALLY THE PROGS SHIFT THIS DEEP UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT BY THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM PCPN SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS
WELL. TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING H850 LOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE FURTHER SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY
WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST. DEPENDING ON
SNOWFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GOING SNOW THURSDAY...VARIOUS
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INCLUDING WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE
SNOW NOT AN ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARS
TO BE MOST IMPACTED FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO MORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL BEFORE ADDING
BETTER DETAIL OF THE IMPACTS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS IF CORRECT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE RIVER AND LAKE ICE
CONDITIONS.

DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH DAYS 3-5...LOW CONFIDENCE
ISSUES EXPECTED FOR DAY 6-7...DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH A
TRAILING SYSTEM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE
WELL SOUTH...BUT MORNING RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A WINTER
EVENT NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A LARGE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING FROM VFR CLEAR TO IFR. LEAST AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS WAS EAST OF WAUSAU AT 18Z. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND LOWER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF CLINTONVILLE BY LATE EVENING
WITH IFR TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ACROS THE AREA
SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 191807
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN WI DUE TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SITUATED
OVER THE FAR WSTRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND WERE EDGING EAST.
IN BETWEEN...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI...TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FARTHER SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PASS MAINLY NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER MN SHOULD BYPASS NORTH
CENTRAL WI. EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND ENDS. LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS
OF NC/C WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...THOUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE MAY TEND TO DISSIPATE DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ALL BUT
FAR EASTERN WI BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN EASTERN WI MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR NE WI.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEEPEN WITH TIME...
THE MOISTURE LAYERS APPEAR TO BE A BIT DISJOINTED...AND LITTLE
OR NO LIFT IS EVIDENT...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FCST INTACT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED THIS FAR OUT...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE LEAD TO RATHER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST.  THE NEW ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE WHILE
THE GEM IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE ENSEMBLE MEANS RESIDE BETWEEN THESE
TWO MODELS...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...BUT DO NOT WANT TO RELY
SOLELY ON THIS MODEL FOR THE DETAILS.  WILL INSTEAD BLEND THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATING WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE COMBINED WITH INCOMING CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.  STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY.  THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE QUICK
MOVING CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN AND WEAK QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 33 TO 34 SHOULD LEAD
TO MELTING ON ROADWAYS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS
USING A 10-12:1 RATIO WOULD GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT.  NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHY AS
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND ASCENT
WEAKENS.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THINK THE
MODELS ARE OVERDONE.  COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN BY
MORNING IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE AMPLIFYING
FLOW ARGUES FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION SO WONDER IF MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY...LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS.  BUT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CALL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE WEST...AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE
MEANDERS ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY
COOLING.  THOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALL AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.

IN GENERAL THOUGH...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL DAY EVENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING
SNOW BUT HIGH IMPACT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS CAN CHANGE THOUGH...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A LARGE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING FROM VFR CLEAR TO IFR. LEAST AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS WAS EAST OF WAUSAU AT 18Z. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND LOWER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF CLINTONVILLE BY LATE EVENING
WITH IFR TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ACROS THE AREA
SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 191807
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN WI DUE TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SITUATED
OVER THE FAR WSTRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND WERE EDGING EAST.
IN BETWEEN...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI...TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FARTHER SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PASS MAINLY NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER MN SHOULD BYPASS NORTH
CENTRAL WI. EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND ENDS. LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS
OF NC/C WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...THOUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE MAY TEND TO DISSIPATE DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ALL BUT
FAR EASTERN WI BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN EASTERN WI MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR NE WI.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEEPEN WITH TIME...
THE MOISTURE LAYERS APPEAR TO BE A BIT DISJOINTED...AND LITTLE
OR NO LIFT IS EVIDENT...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FCST INTACT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED THIS FAR OUT...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE LEAD TO RATHER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST.  THE NEW ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE WHILE
THE GEM IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE ENSEMBLE MEANS RESIDE BETWEEN THESE
TWO MODELS...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...BUT DO NOT WANT TO RELY
SOLELY ON THIS MODEL FOR THE DETAILS.  WILL INSTEAD BLEND THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATING WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE COMBINED WITH INCOMING CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.  STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY.  THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE QUICK
MOVING CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN AND WEAK QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 33 TO 34 SHOULD LEAD
TO MELTING ON ROADWAYS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS
USING A 10-12:1 RATIO WOULD GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT.  NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHY AS
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND ASCENT
WEAKENS.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THINK THE
MODELS ARE OVERDONE.  COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN BY
MORNING IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE AMPLIFYING
FLOW ARGUES FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION SO WONDER IF MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY...LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS.  BUT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CALL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE WEST...AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE
MEANDERS ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY
COOLING.  THOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALL AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.

IN GENERAL THOUGH...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL DAY EVENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING
SNOW BUT HIGH IMPACT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS CAN CHANGE THOUGH...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A LARGE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING FROM VFR CLEAR TO IFR. LEAST AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS WAS EAST OF WAUSAU AT 18Z. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND LOWER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF CLINTONVILLE BY LATE EVENING
WITH IFR TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ACROS THE AREA
SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 191140
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
540 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN WI DUE TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SITUATED
OVER THE FAR WSTRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND WERE EDGING EAST.
IN BETWEEN...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI...TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FARTHER SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PASS MAINLY NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER MN SHOULD BYPASS NORTH
CENTRAL WI. EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND ENDS. LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS
OF NC/C WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...THOUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE MAY TEND TO DISSIPATE DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ALL BUT
FAR EASTERN WI BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN EASTERN WI MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR NE WI.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEEPEN WITH TIME...
THE MOISTURE LAYERS APPEAR TO BE A BIT DISJOINTED...AND LITTLE
OR NO LIFT IS EVIDENT...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FCST INTACT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED THIS FAR OUT...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE LEAD TO RATHER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST.  THE NEW ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE WHILE
THE GEM IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE ENSEMBLE MEANS RESIDE BETWEEN THESE
TWO MODELS...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...BUT DO NOT WANT TO RELY
SOLELY ON THIS MODEL FOR THE DETAILS.  WILL INSTEAD BLEND THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATING WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE COMBINED WITH INCOMING CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.  STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY.  THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE QUICK
MOVING CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN AND WEAK QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 33 TO 34 SHOULD LEAD
TO MELTING ON ROADWAYS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS
USING A 10-12:1 RATIO WOULD GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT.  NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHY AS
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND ASCENT
WEAKENS.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THINK THE
MODELS ARE OVERDONE.  COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN BY
MORNING IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE AMPLIFYING
FLOW ARGUES FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION SO WONDER IF MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY...LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS.  BUT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CALL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE WEST...AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE
MEANDERS ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY
COOLING.  THOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALL AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.

IN GENERAL THOUGH...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL DAY EVENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING
SNOW BUT HIGH IMPACT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS CAN CHANGE THOUGH...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS (MVFR CIGS AT MTW) SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER EC WI BY MID-MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. IN ADDITION...
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER NC WI IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER NC/C WI WERE EDGING EASTWARD AT
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT THIS EASTWARD PROGRESS SHOULD BE SLOWED DURING
THE DAY AS LLVL WINDS BECOME SSW AND MIXING ERODES THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE A MORE CONCERTED
EASTWARD PUSH TONIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY REACHING
GRB/ATW/MTW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 191140
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
540 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN WI DUE TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SITUATED
OVER THE FAR WSTRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND WERE EDGING EAST.
IN BETWEEN...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI...TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FARTHER SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PASS MAINLY NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER MN SHOULD BYPASS NORTH
CENTRAL WI. EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND ENDS. LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS
OF NC/C WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...THOUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE MAY TEND TO DISSIPATE DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ALL BUT
FAR EASTERN WI BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN EASTERN WI MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR NE WI.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEEPEN WITH TIME...
THE MOISTURE LAYERS APPEAR TO BE A BIT DISJOINTED...AND LITTLE
OR NO LIFT IS EVIDENT...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FCST INTACT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED THIS FAR OUT...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE LEAD TO RATHER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST.  THE NEW ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE WHILE
THE GEM IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE ENSEMBLE MEANS RESIDE BETWEEN THESE
TWO MODELS...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...BUT DO NOT WANT TO RELY
SOLELY ON THIS MODEL FOR THE DETAILS.  WILL INSTEAD BLEND THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATING WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE COMBINED WITH INCOMING CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.  STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY.  THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE QUICK
MOVING CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN AND WEAK QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 33 TO 34 SHOULD LEAD
TO MELTING ON ROADWAYS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS
USING A 10-12:1 RATIO WOULD GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT.  NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHY AS
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND ASCENT
WEAKENS.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THINK THE
MODELS ARE OVERDONE.  COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN BY
MORNING IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE AMPLIFYING
FLOW ARGUES FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION SO WONDER IF MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY...LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS.  BUT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CALL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE WEST...AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE
MEANDERS ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY
COOLING.  THOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALL AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.

IN GENERAL THOUGH...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL DAY EVENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING
SNOW BUT HIGH IMPACT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS CAN CHANGE THOUGH...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS (MVFR CIGS AT MTW) SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER EC WI BY MID-MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. IN ADDITION...
PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER NC WI IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER NC/C WI WERE EDGING EASTWARD AT
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT THIS EASTWARD PROGRESS SHOULD BE SLOWED DURING
THE DAY AS LLVL WINDS BECOME SSW AND MIXING ERODES THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE A MORE CONCERTED
EASTWARD PUSH TONIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY REACHING
GRB/ATW/MTW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 190920
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN WI DUE TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SITUATED
OVER THE FAR WSTRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND WERE EDGING EAST.
IN BETWEEN...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI...TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FARTHER SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PASS MAINLY NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER MN SHOULD BYPASS NORTH
CENTRAL WI. EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND ENDS. LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS
OF NC/C WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...THOUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE MAY TEND TO DISSIPATE DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ALL BUT
FAR EASTERN WI BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN EASTERN WI MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR NE WI.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEEPEN WITH TIME...
THE MOISTURE LAYERS APPEAR TO BE A BIT DISJOINTED...AND LITTLE
OR NO LIFT IS EVIDENT...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FCST INTACT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED THIS FAR OUT...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE LEAD TO RATHER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST.  THE NEW ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE WHILE
THE GEM IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE ENSEMBLE MEANS RESIDE BETWEEN THESE
TWO MODELS...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...BUT DO NOT WANT TO RELY
SOLELY ON THIS MODEL FOR THE DETAILS.  WILL INSTEAD BLEND THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATING WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE COMBINED WITH INCOMING CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.  STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY.  THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE QUICK
MOVING CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN AND WEAK QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 33 TO 34 SHOULD LEAD
TO MELTING ON ROADWAYS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS
USING A 10-12:1 RATIO WOULD GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT.  NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHY AS
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND ASCENT
WEAKENS.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THINK THE
MODELS ARE OVERDONE.  COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN BY
MORNING IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE AMPLIFYING
FLOW ARGUES FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION SO WONDER IF MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY...LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS.  BUT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CALL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE WEST...AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE
MEANDERS ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY
COOLING.  THOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALL AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.

IN GENERAL THOUGH...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL DAY EVENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING
SNOW BUT HIGH IMPACT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS CAN CHANGE THOUGH...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WISCONSIN CLEARED THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS RETURNED TO
MFI/Y50. NOT GOOD CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LOW CLOUD TRENDS.
MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS MOSTLY SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BELOW ABOUT 2500FT THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL
MAKE A RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT SO SURE HOW LONG BEFORE
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
AGAIN ATTEMPTED TO USE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TRENDS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 00Z GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190920
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN WI DUE TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SITUATED
OVER THE FAR WSTRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND WERE EDGING EAST.
IN BETWEEN...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI...TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FARTHER SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PASS MAINLY NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER MN SHOULD BYPASS NORTH
CENTRAL WI. EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND ENDS. LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS
OF NC/C WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...THOUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE MAY TEND TO DISSIPATE DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ALL BUT
FAR EASTERN WI BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN EASTERN WI MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR NE WI.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEEPEN WITH TIME...
THE MOISTURE LAYERS APPEAR TO BE A BIT DISJOINTED...AND LITTLE
OR NO LIFT IS EVIDENT...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FCST INTACT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED THIS FAR OUT...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE LEAD TO RATHER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST.  THE NEW ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE WHILE
THE GEM IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE ENSEMBLE MEANS RESIDE BETWEEN THESE
TWO MODELS...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...BUT DO NOT WANT TO RELY
SOLELY ON THIS MODEL FOR THE DETAILS.  WILL INSTEAD BLEND THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATING WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE COMBINED WITH INCOMING CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.  STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY.  THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE QUICK
MOVING CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN AND WEAK QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 33 TO 34 SHOULD LEAD
TO MELTING ON ROADWAYS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS
USING A 10-12:1 RATIO WOULD GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT.  NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHY AS
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND ASCENT
WEAKENS.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THINK THE
MODELS ARE OVERDONE.  COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN BY
MORNING IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE AMPLIFYING
FLOW ARGUES FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION SO WONDER IF MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY...LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS.  BUT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CALL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE WEST...AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE
MEANDERS ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY
COOLING.  THOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALL AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.

IN GENERAL THOUGH...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL DAY EVENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING
SNOW BUT HIGH IMPACT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS CAN CHANGE THOUGH...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WISCONSIN CLEARED THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS RETURNED TO
MFI/Y50. NOT GOOD CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LOW CLOUD TRENDS.
MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS MOSTLY SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BELOW ABOUT 2500FT THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL
MAKE A RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT SO SURE HOW LONG BEFORE
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
AGAIN ATTEMPTED TO USE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TRENDS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 00Z GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 190920
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN WI DUE TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SITUATED
OVER THE FAR WSTRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND WERE EDGING EAST.
IN BETWEEN...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI...TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FARTHER SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PASS MAINLY NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER MN SHOULD BYPASS NORTH
CENTRAL WI. EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND ENDS. LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS
OF NC/C WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...THOUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE MAY TEND TO DISSIPATE DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ALL BUT
FAR EASTERN WI BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN EASTERN WI MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR NE WI.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEEPEN WITH TIME...
THE MOISTURE LAYERS APPEAR TO BE A BIT DISJOINTED...AND LITTLE
OR NO LIFT IS EVIDENT...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FCST INTACT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED THIS FAR OUT...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE LEAD TO RATHER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST.  THE NEW ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE WHILE
THE GEM IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE ENSEMBLE MEANS RESIDE BETWEEN THESE
TWO MODELS...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...BUT DO NOT WANT TO RELY
SOLELY ON THIS MODEL FOR THE DETAILS.  WILL INSTEAD BLEND THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATING WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE COMBINED WITH INCOMING CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.  STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY.  THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE QUICK
MOVING CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN AND WEAK QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 33 TO 34 SHOULD LEAD
TO MELTING ON ROADWAYS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS
USING A 10-12:1 RATIO WOULD GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT.  NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHY AS
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND ASCENT
WEAKENS.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THINK THE
MODELS ARE OVERDONE.  COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN BY
MORNING IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE AMPLIFYING
FLOW ARGUES FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION SO WONDER IF MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY...LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS.  BUT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CALL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE WEST...AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE
MEANDERS ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY
COOLING.  THOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALL AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.

IN GENERAL THOUGH...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL DAY EVENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING
SNOW BUT HIGH IMPACT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS CAN CHANGE THOUGH...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WISCONSIN CLEARED THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS RETURNED TO
MFI/Y50. NOT GOOD CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LOW CLOUD TRENDS.
MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS MOSTLY SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BELOW ABOUT 2500FT THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL
MAKE A RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT SO SURE HOW LONG BEFORE
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
AGAIN ATTEMPTED TO USE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TRENDS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 00Z GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190920
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN WI DUE TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SITUATED
OVER THE FAR WSTRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND WERE EDGING EAST.
IN BETWEEN...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI...TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FARTHER SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PASS MAINLY NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER MN SHOULD BYPASS NORTH
CENTRAL WI. EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND ENDS. LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS
OF NC/C WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...THOUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE MAY TEND TO DISSIPATE DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ALL BUT
FAR EASTERN WI BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN EASTERN WI MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR NE WI.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEEPEN WITH TIME...
THE MOISTURE LAYERS APPEAR TO BE A BIT DISJOINTED...AND LITTLE
OR NO LIFT IS EVIDENT...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FCST INTACT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED THIS FAR OUT...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE LEAD TO RATHER LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST.  THE NEW ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE WHILE
THE GEM IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE ENSEMBLE MEANS RESIDE BETWEEN THESE
TWO MODELS...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...BUT DO NOT WANT TO RELY
SOLELY ON THIS MODEL FOR THE DETAILS.  WILL INSTEAD BLEND THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATING WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE COMBINED WITH INCOMING CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.  STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY.  THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE QUICK
MOVING CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN AND WEAK QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 33 TO 34 SHOULD LEAD
TO MELTING ON ROADWAYS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS
USING A 10-12:1 RATIO WOULD GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT.  NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHY AS
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND ASCENT
WEAKENS.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THINK THE
MODELS ARE OVERDONE.  COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OVER N-C WISCONSIN BY
MORNING IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE AMPLIFYING
FLOW ARGUES FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION SO WONDER IF MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY...LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS.  BUT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CALL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE WEST...AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE
MEANDERS ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY
COOLING.  THOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALL AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.

IN GENERAL THOUGH...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SEVERAL DAY EVENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING
SNOW BUT HIGH IMPACT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS CAN CHANGE THOUGH...SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WISCONSIN CLEARED THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS RETURNED TO
MFI/Y50. NOT GOOD CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LOW CLOUD TRENDS.
MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS MOSTLY SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BELOW ABOUT 2500FT THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL
MAKE A RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT SO SURE HOW LONG BEFORE
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
AGAIN ATTEMPTED TO USE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TRENDS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 00Z GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 190548
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WISCONSIN CLEARED THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS RETURNED TO
MFI/Y50. NOT GOOD CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LOW CLOUD TRENDS.
MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS MOSTLY SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BELOW ABOUT 2500FT THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL
MAKE A RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT SO SURE HOW LONG BEFORE
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
AGAIN ATTEMPTED TO USE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TRENDS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 00Z GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG









000
FXUS63 KGRB 190548
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WISCONSIN CLEARED THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS RETURNED TO
MFI/Y50. NOT GOOD CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LOW CLOUD TRENDS.
MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS MOSTLY SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BELOW ABOUT 2500FT THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL
MAKE A RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT SO SURE HOW LONG BEFORE
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
AGAIN ATTEMPTED TO USE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TRENDS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 00Z GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190333
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
933 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR TONIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE. DRIER AIR
MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z. TIME/HEIGHT
SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z NAM SHOWED HIGH RH WITHIN THE FIRST 2-3KFT
OF THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE 12Z GFS
SEEMED TO BE DOING BETTER...RELATIVE TO CURRENT TRENDS...SHOWING
DECREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT
TRENDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE THE 00Z
TAFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190333
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
933 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR TONIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE. DRIER AIR
MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z. TIME/HEIGHT
SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z NAM SHOWED HIGH RH WITHIN THE FIRST 2-3KFT
OF THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE 12Z GFS
SEEMED TO BE DOING BETTER...RELATIVE TO CURRENT TRENDS...SHOWING
DECREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT
TRENDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE THE 00Z
TAFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 190333
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
933 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR TONIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE. DRIER AIR
MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z. TIME/HEIGHT
SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z NAM SHOWED HIGH RH WITHIN THE FIRST 2-3KFT
OF THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE 12Z GFS
SEEMED TO BE DOING BETTER...RELATIVE TO CURRENT TRENDS...SHOWING
DECREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT
TRENDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE THE 00Z
TAFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 190004
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE. DRIER AIR
MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z. TIME/HEIGHT
SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z NAM SHOWED HIGH RH WITHIN THE FIRST 2-3KFT
OF THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE 12Z GFS
SEEMED TO BE DOING BETTER...RELATIVE TO CURRENT TRENDS...SHOWING
DECREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT
TRENDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE THE 00Z
TAFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 190004
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE. DRIER AIR
MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z. TIME/HEIGHT
SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z NAM SHOWED HIGH RH WITHIN THE FIRST 2-3KFT
OF THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE 12Z GFS
SEEMED TO BE DOING BETTER...RELATIVE TO CURRENT TRENDS...SHOWING
DECREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT
TRENDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE THE 00Z
TAFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 182053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 182053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 181751
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 181751
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM







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